Beruflich Dokumente
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TOPIC
BY
(04/2007/880D)
JULY, 2010.
STUDENT’S DECLARATION
I declare that except for references to other people work which have been accredited, this
project work is the result of own research work carried out and no part of it has been
SIGNATURE…………… DATE........................
(04/2007/880D)
CERTIFICATION
I hereby certify that the preparation of this project work was supervised in accordance with
the guideline on the supervision of project work laid down by Koforidua polytechnic
Signature........................... dates................................
The research work takes a look at predicting of rainfall statistics in Ghana a case study
Among the specific objective of the research is; to predict the expected average
To determine if there exists a linear relationship between rainfall and time(years). the
They study found out that all nations’ university is using effective policies such as
The purposive sampling method was used to select respondents who will give data for the
research work.
It has been release that, any organization being it service or production industry needs
some form of motivation for it employees if they really want to achieve their set goals
and objectives.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
The credit for the successful completion of this work does not come to us alone. It goes to
all who in diverse ways helped us in making it a success. To all such individuals and
Our profound gratitude goes to Almighty God for his spiritual and physical support, care
and protection.
Special thanks go to the management and staff, and all respondent for their cooperation in
making available useful information for our work. God bless you all.
DEDICATION
This project is dedicated to the Almighty God for his physical and spiritual support,
This work is also dedicated to Mr. Badu Tawaih and Mrs. Theresa Badu Tawaih for their
Special dedication also goes to Mr. Kwaku Nuamah for his love and support during my
stay on campus.
THE TABLE OF CONTENTS
TITLEPAGE
DECLARATION……………………………………………………………. i
ABSTRACT……………………………………………………… …………… ii
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT…………………………………………………... iii
DEDICATION................................................................................................ IV
…………………………………...11
2.4WEATHER FORECASTING…………………………………………….12
16 CHAPTER THREE
INTRODUCTION
…………………………………………………………….. 17
3.5.1QUESTIONNAIRE……………………………………………………………21
3.5.2 INTERVIEWS……………………………………………………………….. 22
4.0 INTRODUCTION……………………………………………………………25
UNVERSITY……………26
UNIVERSITY…………………………………………..28
5.0 INTRODUCTION…………………………………………………………….. 31
5.1 FINDINGS…………………………………………………. 32
5.2 CONCLUTIONS………………………………………………………………... 33
5.3 RECOMMENDATIONS………………………………………………………... 34
5.4 BIBLIOGRAPHY………………………………………………………………...35
CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
This project aims at giving a realistic view of the nature of rainfall in the
municipality. Predicting rainfall statistics in Ghana using atmosphere
circulating variable in the New Juaben Municipality as a case study is the
topic under investigation. Rainfall which comes as a result of the
precipitation of the atmospheric machinery has enormous impact on our
existence and this call for an improved and easy to digest parametric
study of the problem so as to find workable solutions to some of the
frequently asked question.
These are just few of the unanswered questions that the study
ambitiously seeks to research into.
SPECIFIC OBJECTIVES
Main hypothesis.
LIMITATION
As a result of limited resources available for the study, the study was
restricted to New Juaben Municipality.
The overall research work of this project has been divided into five main
chapters. The first chapter constitutes the introductory work to the study.
This is followed by chapter two, the literature review related to the study.
Chapter three on the other hand explains the study methodology
employed. The fourth chapter deals with the analysis of the study data
while chapter five finally presents discussions, findings, conclusions, and
recommendation of the study.
LITERATURE REVIEW
INTRODUCTION
This section of the project takes into account the literature review, associated
with the topic under consideration. It consists of main and sub sections which
provide a clear and an in-depth understanding of the concepts and definitions
relating to the projects topic.
2. THE WEATHER: The term weather describes the state of the air at a
particular place and time. The Macmillan school dictionary refers to the
weather as the conditions that exist in the atmosphere. The weather can be
warm or cold, wet or dry, and how cloudy or windy a particular place may be
in time.
2.4. SUNSHINE: Without the sun there would be no weather. Sunlight is the
energy which powers the world’s weather systems. By warming the air above
the Earth, the atmosphere is kept in constant motion – creating weather
features such as wind, rain, snow, hail and thunder, as well as sunshine itself.
However, this heating takes place unevenly, this variation in amount of heat
received is caused by the curved surface of the Earth. Although the sun’s rays
travel to Earth in straight parallel lines, they strike different areas of the surface
at different angles. The sun’s rays are most direct near the Equator, where they
arrive at an angle of nearly 90°. This means they are concentrated on a smaller
area and so regions around the Equator are very hot. Near the Poles, the sun’s
rays have to travel further through the atmosphere and they reach the surface at
an indirect angle. They are therefore more spread out and have to heat a wider
area, which results in the very cold conditions we find in the Arctic and
Antarctic.
RAIN PRECIPITATION: Without clouds, it would not rain. Clouds are made
up of water droplets formed when warm, moist air raises high into the sky and
cools. That water vapor in it condenses and forms what will become raindrops.
These droplets move around in the cloud and bang into each other. As they do
this, they increase in size until they are heavy enough to fall from the cloud.
Rain clouds usually have particular characteristics. They are often large, grey
clouds and appear dark because they are so large and full of water that sunlight
cannot get through them. The heaviest rain falls from the deepest, darkest
clouds which are high enough for the raindrops to develop properly.
According to James Hutton, rainfall is regulated by the humidity of the
air on the other hand, the mixing of different air current in the high
atmosphere in his book theory of the earth.
The highest rainfall totals occur near the equator in the tropics where the strong
heating by the Sun creates significant vertical uplift of air, and the formation of
prolonged heavy showers and frequent thunderstorms. Annual rainfall totals in
the tropics usually exceed 100 inches or 2,500 millimeters, and can be as high
as 400 inches or 10,000 millimeters, particularly if influenced by the monsoons
or if mountains enhance the uplift of air.
Within the Polar Regions precipitation is low because air is too cold to contain
much water vapor. In addition, the cold heavy air descends precluding much
cloud formation. In fact, some parts of Antarctica and the Arctic are as dry as
the hot desert climate of the subtropics, where high pressure also limits cloud
formation and precipitation. Both hot and cold deserts may receive less than 10
inches or 250 millimeters of precipitation each year. Indeed, in some parts of
the subtropics, rain may not fall for several years.
Like temperature, patterns of rainfall shift with the seasons, and the north-
south movement of the Sun, particularly within and near the tropical rain belt.
Regions closest to the equator may experience two wet seasons and two dry
seasons. Greatest rainfall occurs at the March and September Equinoxes, when
the midday Sun over the equator is directly overhead and is at it strongest.
Away from the equator, the year may be split into single wet and dry seasons.
In the Northern Hemisphere, heaviest rain occurs in June and July, and may be
augmented by the monsoons. In the Southern Hemisphere, the wet season
occurs in December and January.
http://www.ace.mmu.ac.uk/eae/climate/Older/Rainfall_Patterns.html
Meteorologists plot their observations on a weather map every hour to see how
fast the weather is changing, and then forecast where those changes will occur
next.
2. Synoptic Forecasting: This method uses basic rules that the atmosphere
follows. Meteorologists take their observations, and apply those rules to make
a short-term forecast.
Using all the above methods, forecasters come up with their "best guess" as to
what weather conditions will be over the next few days.
METHODOLOGY
3.0 INTRODUCTION
Ascertaining the true nature about rainfall conditions and it patterns in the new Juaben
municipality, several trips were undertaken to theme theological agency work station and
the main regional office at Koforidua. Interviews were carried out on management, staff and
customers of the agency to solicit their views on the research questions asked.
The research made use of readily available secondary data from the metrological agency
workstation…………………………………………………..
Already existing data from the metrological agency workstation concerning rainfall figures
from 1991-2009 and other relevant information were also obtained from the internet
,journals and other books to assist in drafting the entire work. The purpose of this was to
establish a more practical method for predicting rainfall statistics in the new Juaben
municipality.
In some instances face to face interviews was employed in soliciting respondents view on
and statistical tools, such as regression and inferential and descriptive statistics were
CHAPTER FOUR
4.0 INTRODUCTION
This chapter deals with the analysis of the study data. It present the various
analyses that were carried out on the data obtained from the Ghana
Metrological Work Station. Koforidua and other interviews conducted.
Table 4.0: Years and their annual rainfall figures from 1991-2009
Years Rainfall Relative Index Percentage
recorded change
1991 2522.3 100 0.00
1992 1024 40.60 -59.40
1993 1430.6 139.71 39.71
1994 1098.3 76.77 -23.33
1995 1418 129.11 29.11
1996 1172 82.65 -17.35
1997 1359.6 116.01 16.01
1998 941.4 69.24 -30.76
1999 1683.1 178.79 78.79
2000 1223.3 72.68 -27.32
2001 1250 102.18 2.18
2002 1691.6 135.33 35.55
2003 1306.1 77.21 -22.79
2004 1220.2 93.42 -6.58
2005 943 77.21 -22.72
2006 1534.5 162.73 62.73
2007 1270.3 82.78 -17.22
2008 1381.5 108.75 8.75
2009 1295.9 93.80 -6.2
Source: Ghana metrological Agency Koforidua Work Station, the above data
above shows annual rainfall totals from the year 1991 to 2009 and their relative
percentage changes with respect to the previous year rainfall. The number of
years and their percentage drop in rainfall with respect to their previous years
rainfalls are as follows, 2004and 2009 below 10%,1996and 1997 between
10%-20%,1994,2000,2003 and 2005 between 20-30%,1998 between 30-
40%,1992 between 50-60%.
The years and their percentage increase in rainfall with respect to the previous
year are as follows,2001 and 2008 below 10%,1997 between 10-20%,1993
and 2002 between 30-40%,1992 between 50-60% and 2006 between 60-70%.
FIGURE.4.0
The table above gives figures on monthly recorded rainfall in the New Juaben
Municipality and their respective years from the year 2005-2009
Table 4.3
Coefficientsa
Standardized
Unstandardized Coefficients Coefficients
Table 4.4
ANOVAb
Total 2235496.818 18
Table 4.5
Model Summary
r = 0.223
r2 = the coefficient of determination, it explains the degree of variables
accounted for by the model
r2 = 0.05
= 5%
HYPOTHESIS TESTING
HYPOTHESIS
True hypothesis; Ho: There is no significant change in annual rainfall in the new juaben
municipality.
Alternative hypothesis; Hi: there is a significant change in annual rainfall in the New juaben
municipality.
DECISION RULE
TEST STATISTICS
CONCLUSION
From the table 4.4 above, (calculated- F is less than F- tabulated. We therefore fail to
reject HO and conclude that statistically there is no significant change in annual rainfall in
Table 4.7 shows the SPSS analysis of variance for the atmosphere circulating variables,
ANOVAb
Total 684504.888 59
Table 4.8 The SPSS output for the atmosphere circulating variables coefficients.
Coefficients
Standardized
Unstandardized Coefficients Coefficients
Table 4.9
Model Summary
From table 4.8 the multiple regression models for the atmosphere circulating
variable for predicting rainfall statistics in the New Juaben Municipality is
shown below.
Y=-270.619+3.966x1-3.805x2-51.968x3+1.491x4-0.213x5+4.93x6+0.110x7
X1=relative humidity at 1500,x2=maximum temperature ,x3= relative
humidity at 0900,x4=relative humidity at o600,x5=wind speed,x6= minimum
temperature and x7= relative humidity at 1200.
HYPOTHESIS TESTING
HYPOTHESIS
True hypothesis; Ho: atmosphere circulating variables can be used to predict rainfall
Hi: atmosphere circulating variables cannot be use to predict rainfall statistics in the new
Juaben Municipality.
DECISION RULE
CONCLUSION
From the table 4.4 above, (calculated- F is less than F- tabulated. We therefore fail to reject
Ho, and conclude that statistically atmosphere circulating variables can be used to predict
CHAPTER FIVE
5.0 INTRODUCTION
This section of the project work present the findings, conclusions and
recommendations relating to the study of rainfall statistics and the pattern of
rainfall in the New Juaben Municipality
5.1 FINDINGS
Based on the data gathered it reveals that the major raining season in the
municipality starts from March and ends in June. The month of May
experiences higher rainfall than any other months. The minor raining season
also starts from September and ends in October with July and August serving
as transition month for rainfall in the municipality. January is the month that
receives the lowest rainfall figures, followed by December, November,
February, July, August in an increasing order of rainfall, their mean monthly
rainfall is below 100mm. The major rain seasons consist of four months
namely March, April, May and June with a mean monthly rainfall above
100mm, With May receiving an average monthly rainfall figure above 200mm.
That of the minor season consist of two months namely September and
October, they receive rainfall figures above 100mm, with October receiving
more rainfall than September.
The annual mean rainfall expected based on the data analysis carried out is
1,285.0 ± 194.35 1090.69 – 1479.39 ≈ 1,100mm – 1500mm to the nearest
hundred.
By testing the model
Y = 1495.702 – 13.961x, at x = 0, when no year is under consideration.
Annual rainfall =1495.702 ≈ 1500mm
The regression model above has a coefficient of correlation (R) = -0.223 which
indicates that there exist a fairly weak association between time(years) and
annual rainfall recorded. This shows that annual rainfall figures shall continue
to reduce as the years increases holding all other factors constant .The model
also reveals that the expected annual rainfall figure to be approximately
1500mm to the nearest hundred is to be reduce by -13.961 with respect to the
year under consideration. All other things being constant, 107years from now,
that is the year 2117 the municipality shall experience an annual rainfall figure
of 1.88mm, implying that the municipality shall move from the forest zone into
the desert region. R2 ≈ 5% which represent the coefficient of determination,
shows that time (years) accounts for only 5% of the factors responsible for
predicting rainfall the New Juaben municipality.
The annual rainfall figures shall experience about 40-60% chance drop in
rainfall during every 5year interval.
5.3 RECOMMENDATIONS
Having analyzed the data collected with findings resulting from the data
obtained from the Metrological Agency work Station at Koforidua and other
interviews conducted on the citizenry, the following recommendations were
made for consideration.
CONCLUSION
It can be concluded that there has not been any significant change in both the pattern as well
as the rainfall experienced over the 19 year period. There is a high possibility of using
atmosphere circulating variables to predict rainfall in the municipality, but for now the
variables been used is not enough for accurate prediction. The New Juaben municipality is a
good agricultural region that needs to be exploited due to it high rainfall rate.
REFERENCE
Caseely ,D.J. and Lurry ,D.A.(1987) Data collection in
Developing Countries, ELBS , Clarebdon Press oxford.
furthhttp://gbcghana.com/news/25586detail.html
not enough reference