12/15/2017 Ready for a Global Pandemic?

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READY FOR A GLOBAL PANDEMIC? SUKREE SUKPLANG / REUTERS

Tom Inglesby and Benjamin Haas SIGN IN SUBSCRIBE

SNAPSHOT November 21, 2017

Ready for a Global Pandemic?

The Trump Administration May Be Woefully Underprepared

By Tom Inglesby and Benjamin Haas

A
lmost a century ago, a new and deadly strain o inuenza spread around the world, shutting down
schools and businesses and lling hospitals well beyond their capacity. In the end, the 1918 u
pandemic claimed the lives o approximately 50 to 100 million people, and it infected about one-third
o the global population. Since then, medical care has vastly improved, and science has made major
gains in vaccines and medicines. Yet the potential remains for a lethal strain o inuenza or other contagious
pathogen to overwhelm global health care systems by spreading at a rate that outpaces our ability to respond. In
such a calamitous scenario, neither the United States nor other countries would be well enough equipped to
contain it, increasing the potential for a true national or global catastrophe.

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12/15/2017 Ready for a Global Pandemic? | Foreign Affairs

Consider the current H7N9 bird u epidemic in China. It has infected more than 1,600 people since 2013, with a
fatality rate o 40 percent. Although humans have contracted it mostly through contact with infectedSIGN IN SUBSCRIBE
poultry, it
is possible that limited person-to-person transmission has taken place but has yet to be detected. The great
concern at the moment is that the virus will adapt, allowing for more ecient transmission; this would enable it
to transform from a local outbreak to a global one.

Modern conditions make the scenario o a global pandemic more likely. Humans are encroaching on animal
environments, raising chances for pathogens to adapt from animals to people. An increasing share o the planet
lives in megacities, heightening the likelihood o person-to-person transmission o pathogens. The movement of
people and microbes around the globe is more ecient than ever. The recent outbreaks o SARS, MERS, and
Ebola are only small glimpses o how quickly a deadly virus can spread. Imagine i it were to happen with an
even more fatal and more contagious pathogen.

Beyond these naturally occurring events, there is also the potential for terrorists or rogue nations to deliberately
release dangerous microbes and trigger lethal epidemics or even pandemics. It is

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