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DPRK missile

capabilities
CCSBAMD conference
Hamburg,
September 2017

CDC
Netherlands Defence Academy
Dr. Ralph Savelsberg
DPRK has different families of ballistic missiles

Kerosene & IFRNA propellant,


based on Soviet Scud
o Hwasong-5&6 (Shahab-1&2)
o Nodong (Shahab-3) Photo: AFP Photo: AP

Solid-propellant
o Pukguksong-1 (SLBM)
o Pukguksong-2
Photo: EPA Photo: KCNA

More advanced liquid


propellant
o Hwasong-10 (Musudan)
o Hwasong-12
o ICBM development Photo: KCNA

2 CDC
DPRK missile capabilities
Taepodong-2 ICBM/ Unha Satellite Launch Vehicle

Two successful launches, orbiting


satellites (2012 & 2016)

Largely based on Scud / Nodong


technology
Stage 1: 4 Nodong engines + verniers
Stage 2: Scud engine
Stage 3: R-27 (SS-N-6 Serb) verniers
DPRKs most powerful first stage

Limitations as ICBM
2nd stage Scud engine lacks power
large missile would require silo-basing

Photo: Reuters

3 CDC
DPRK missile capabilities
DPRK has shown supposedly road-mobile ICBMs during
parades
KN-08 KN-14

Photo: AP Photo: Reuters/ KCNA

Both identified as Hwasong-13 on placards


Missiles transported on Chinese-built WS51200 trucks
Never test-flown

4 CDC
DPRK missile capabilities
This year: Hwasong-12 and 14 missile launches
date Missile Distance Apogee Flight time Hwasong-14
type covered [km] [km] [min]
May 14th Hwasong-12 787 2011 30

July 4th Hwasong-14 933 2803 39

July 28th Hwasong-14 998 3725 47

August 29th Hwasong-12 ~2700 550 ~15

September 15th Hwasong-12 3700 770 19

If lofted trajectories flown with full weight,


Hwasong-14 performance is equivalent to ICBM
DPRK claims ICBM that can strike any place in
the world
Hwasong-14 widely seen as road-mobile ICBM Original image: KCNA

5 CDC
DPRK missile capabilities
Is Hwasong-14, as flown, a threat to CONUS/
NATO?

Approach to answering this question:


detailed analysis of the Hwasong-12 and then the Hwasong-14

Derive missile sizes from photographs


Derive missile parameter sets
Perform simulations of lofted trajectories
Calculate range vs. payload

6 CDC
DPRK missile capabilities
Hwasong-10 demonstrated more advanced propulsion

Photo: KCNA

Single successful launch in June 2016 / seven failures


Uses propulsion system of Soviet origin (R-27 / SS-N-6
Serb)
o UDMH fuel
o Vernier engines for steering

7 CDC
DPRK missile capabilities
Hwasong-12 and Hwasong-10 compared
Hwasong-10 Hwasong-12

Original image: KCNA Original image: Reuters Original image: Rodong Sinmun

Missiles use same transporter


Same missile diameter: 1.5 m
Hwasong-12 is longer: length 15.9 m
8 CDC
DPRK missile capabilities
Acceleration measurement from launch video
Position of missile (scaled with missile length) as function of
time gives acceleration:
6.0 m/s2

Original footage: KCTV

Measured acceleration constrains missile parameters


Engine is more powerful than Hwasong-10
9 CDC
DPRK missile capabilities
Resulting missile
parameters
Fuel UDMH
Oxidizer N2O4
Isp (Sea level) 270 s
Isp (vacuum) 301 s
Useable propellant 20,687 kg
mass

Burn time 151 s


Booster dead-weight 9.5 %
fraction (including
unspent propellant)
Booster take-off 22,859 kg
mass
Take-off thrust 363 kN
Original image: Reuters

10 CDC
DPRK missile capabilities
Simulated missile should be able to fly reported lofted
trajectory

2011 km altitude only achievable with small payload (~176 kg)


Flight time of 29 minutes
11 CDC
DPRK missile capabilities
Hwasong-12 range vs. payload

Guam in range (~ 3400 km)


Model can also reproduce Japan overflights

12 CDC
DPRK missile capabilities
Hwasong-12 and 14 engine configurations are
identical
Hwasong-12 Hwasong-14

Original image: Chosun TV Original image: KCNA

Suggests 1.5 m body diameter

13 CDC
DPRK missile capabilities
Confirmation 1.5 m diameter for Hwasong-14

Original image: KCNA

Size estimate from reconstruction of missile on transporter


Consistent 0.93 ratio, measured in vertical direction
Tire diameter 1.6 m (from manufacturer)
14 CDC
DPRK missile capabilities
Hwasong-14 length compared to WS51200
transporter (carrying KN-08)

Original image: AP
Estimated missile length of 18 m

15 CDC
DPRK missile capabilities
Hwasong-14 is
essentially Hwasong-12
with 2nd stage

Makes sense from point


of view of engineering/
manufacture
Hwasong-12 parameters
can be used for
Hwasong-14 1st stage

Original images:
Reuters/ KCTV

16 CDC
DPRK missile capabilities
Other analyses
find larger
missile

Photos show
inconsistent aspect
ratios: missile
appears wider

Our size
measurements do
not rely on the
aspect ratio
Original images:
KCTV/ KCNA

17 CDC
DPRK missile capabilities
Uncertainty in 2nd
stage parameters

Original image: KCNA

Unha SLV 3rd stage uses R-27 verniers, but it is much larger
Reported burn time and estimated internal volume inconsistent
with R-27 vernier thrusters
Use reported burn time with reduced thrust (baseline)
Use R-27 verniers with shorter burn (R-27 verniers)

18 CDC
DPRK missile capabilities
Resulting missile Stage 1 Take-off mass 22,859 kg
parameters Shroud mass 250 kg
Fuel UDMH
Oxidizer N2O4
Isp (vacuum) 305 s
Useable
2,025 kg
propellant mass
Stage dead-
Stage 2 20 %
weight fraction
stage take-off
2,531 kg
mass
R-27
variant baseline
verniers
Burn time 233 s 169 s
thrust 26 kN 36 kN
Take-off mass
Total 25,640 kg
(excl. payload)
Original image: KCTV

19 CDC
DPRK missile capabilities
July 4th and 28th
lofted trajectories

Lofted trajectories
can be flown with
reduced payloads

Test flight Apogee Baseline payload R-27 verniers


date [km] mass [kg] payload mass [kg]
July 4th 2803 378 448
July 28th 3725 172 229

20 CDC
DPRK missile capabilities
Simulated HS-14 lofted trajectories

Acceleration Flight time Flight times match


[m/s2] [min] Reasonable match with
July 4th 4.3 39 acceleration measured in
July 28th 4.2 47 launch videos: 3.8 m/s2
21 CDC
DPRK missile capabilities
Hwasong-14 towards United States

DPRK
Alaska Canada

1000 kg CONUS

750 kg 500 kg
R-27 thrusters
500 kg
Hawaii
22 CDC
DPRK missile capabilities
Hwasong-14 towards Europe

Russian
Federation
DPRK
Europe
1000 kg
750 kg
500 kg
PRC

500 kg
R-27 thrusters
23 CDC
DPRK missile capabilities
Conclusions
Based on available evidence, consistent models of
Hwasong-12 and 14 were derived
Reported flight parameters were replicated in the
simulations
Lofted trajectories flown with reduced payloads
Hwasong-12 poses a threat to Guam
Hwasong-14 does not pose a threat to CONUS or NATO
Missiles show some advances:
o Application of UDMH and N2O4
o Light-weight structure
o More powerful engine than Hwasong-10

24 CDC
DPRK missile capabilities
Missile trajectories are
simulated using 3-DOF
model
Numerical integration of equations
of motion
Point-mass model with drag, thrust
and gravity
Spherical earth
Standard atmosphere
Optional correction for changing
back-pressure
Steering by changing angle
between thrust and vertical in time
Optional correction for Earth
rotation
25 CDC
DPRK missile capabilities
August 29th
Hwasong-12
flight

Marco Langbroek,
SatTrackCam Leiden (b)log, September 1, 2017
https://sattrackcam.blogspot.nl/2017/09/the-other-subliminal-
message-in-kim.html
26 CDC
DPRK missile capabilities
August 29th trajectory consistent with
premature burnout
Intended trajectory to
3300 km with 700 kg
payload

Same trajectory but


with early shutdown (3 s
too soon) gives reported
range and apogee

27 CDC
DPRK missile capabilities
September 15th Japan overflight

Slightly lofted trajectory with roughly 500 kg payload gives


reported range and apogee

28 CDC
DPRK missile capabilities
Hwasong-12 towards Pacific Ocean
Russia Alaska

PRC
DPRK

Japan

1000 kg
500 kg

Guam Hawaii
750 kg

29 CDC
DPRK missile capabilities
Hwasong-14 range vs. payload

Both models can exceed (arbitrary) 5500 km ICBM range


threshold, but only with relatively light payload
30 CDC
DPRK missile capabilities
Hwasong-12 length compared to MAZ-547 transporter

Original image from https://www.trucksplanet.com

Hwasong-12 length: 15.9 m


31 CDC
DPRK missile capabilities
Are these missiles mobile?
Four launches from four different launch sites
Driven around on transporters
Hwasong-14, July 4th

launch table
detached
Stepped
from
concrete
transporter
platform

Separate
pedestal
attached to
platform Original image: KCNA

32 CDC
DPRK missile capabilities
July 4th launch was from prepared site

Launch table
transported on
Fuelling ports? vehicle
Location such
that fuelling can
only be done
with missile in
vertical position

Stepped concrete
Separate platform
pedestal
already in place
on platform Original image: KCNA

33 CDC
DPRK missile capabilities
First four launches Hwasong-12, May 14th

were from prepared


sites

Original image: Rodong Sinmun

Hwasong-12, August 29th Hwasong-14, July 28th

Original image: KCTV Original image: Rodong Sinmun

34 CDC
DPRK missile capabilities
WS51200 1.6 m tire size compared to DPRK
leaders
Photo shown at Pyongyang concert to celebrate 2nd
Hwasong-14 launch

Kim Jong Il: 1.6 m


Kim Jong Un: 1.7 m

Original image: KCTV

35 CDC
DPRK missile capabilities
Other analyses find different sizes
Length 17.85 m, diameter 1.75 m
John Schilling,
What is true and not true about the Hwasong-14,
38 North, July 10, 2017
Length 19.5 m, diameter 1.85 m
Theodore Postol, Michael Schiller & Robert Schmucker,
North Koreas not quite ICBM cant hit the lower 48
states,
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, August 11, 2017

36 CDC
DPRK missile capabilities
Older DPRK missiles use Soviet engines

Our first estimate (May): engine


from R-27 (SS-N-6 Serb), like
Hwasong-10, but with two more
Verniers

Speculation about RD-250


(possibly from Ukraine) in press

Neither matches data:


Original image: KCNA

indigenous engine?

37 CDC
DPRK missile capabilities 13 oktober 2017
Towards a DPRK ICBM?

Unha 1st stage still most powerful stage


flown by DPRK (1.2103 kN)
Hwasong-12 and 14 technology can be
used for alternative 2nd stage/ post-boost
vehicle
Missile would require silo-basing

38 CDC
DPRK missile capabilities
Militarized Unha with Hwasong-12 2nd stage would
threaten CONUS

Alaska

Hwasong-14
750 kg
Unha/Scud 750 kg Canada

Unha/Hwasong-12
1000 kg Unha/Hwasong-12
750 kg
Hawaii
CONUS

39 CDC
DPRK missile capabilities