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Financial Reporting, Financial Statement Analysis, and Valuation: A Strategic Perspective, 8th Edition
By James Wahlen, Steve Baginski and Mark Bradshaw
Other comprehensive income items 1,282 -3,817 867 146 -2,618 706
Comprehensive Income 6,952 1,349 6,846 6,484 3,844 6,920
STATEMENT OF CASH FLOWS DATA 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
DATA CHECKS
Assets - Liabilities - Equities 0 0 0 0 0
Net Income (computed) - Net Income (reported) 0 0 0 0 0
Cash Changes 0 0 0 0
In the computations below, a #DIV/0! message indicates that a ratio denominator is zero.
PROFITABILITY FACTORS:
Year 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
GROWTH:
Revenue Growth 9.6% 0.0% 33.8% 15.0% -1.5%
Net Income Growth -9.1% 15.6% 6.3% 1.9% -4.1%
Persistent Net Income Growth 5.4% -0.7% 14.2% 5.4% -8.3%
OPERATING CONTROL:
Gross Profit Control Index 97.5% 101.1% 101.0% 97.1% 99.5%
Operating Profit Contol Index 88.4% 115.6% 77.4% 100.5% 96.1%
Profit Margin Decomposition:
Gross Profit Margin 52.9% 53.5% 54.1% 52.5% 52.2%
Operating Profit Index 30.4% 34.8% 26.7% 27.6% 26.6%
Leverage Index 101.2% 100.4% 98.8% 91.7% 91.1%
Tax Index 73.3% 74.0% 77.0% 73.1% 74.8%
Net Profit Margin 11.9% 13.8% 11.0% 9.7% 9.5%
Comprehensive Income Performance:
Comprehensive Income Index 26.1% 114.5% 102.3% 59.5% 111.4%
Comprehensive Income Margin 3.1% 15.8% 11.2% 5.8% 10.6%
RISK FACTORS:
Year 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
LIQUIDITY:
Current Ratio 1.23 1.44 1.11 0.96 1.10
Quick Ratio 0.79 1.00 0.80 0.62 0.80
Operating Cash Flow to Current Liabilities 84.6% 77.5% 68.5% 52.5% 48.1%
ASSET TURNOVER:
Accounts Receivable Turnover 9.5 9.3 10.6 10.0 9.4
Days Receivables Held 38 39 35 36 39
Inventory Turnover 8.5 7.8 8.9 8.8 8.4
Days Inventory Held 43 47 41 42 43
Accounts Payable Turnover 7.6 7.1 8.1 8.1 7.3
Days Payables Held 48 52 45 45 50
Net Working Capital Days 33 34 31 33 32
Revenues / Average Net Fixed Assets 3.8 3.6 3.6 3.4 3.4
Cash Turnover 29.1 14.4 11.7 13.3 12.6
Days Sales Held in Cash 12.5 25.4 31.2 27.5 28.9
SOLVENCY:
Total Liabilities / Total Assets 65.0% 56.2% 68.5% 71.3% 70.0%
Total Liabilities / Total Equity 186.1% 128.5% 217.3% 248.7% 233.2%
LT Debt / LT Capital 38.4% 29.8% 48.2% 49.6% 51.2%
LT Debt / Total Equity 62.5% 42.4% 93.1% 98.4% 105.1%
Operating Cash Flow to Total Liabilities 34.4% 29.7% 24.5% 18.1% 16.3%
Interest Coverage Ratio (reported amounts) 22.4 21.4 10.1 11.3 10.2
Interest Coverage ratio (recurring amounts) 22.4 21.4 10.1 11.3 10.2
RISK FACTORS:
Bankruptcy Predictors:
Altman Z Score 5.05 5.45 3.34 3.29 3.33
Bankruptcy Probability 0.00% 0.00% 0.96% 1.11% 0.98%
Earnings Manipulation Predictors:
Beneish Earnings Manipulation Score -2.73 -2.59 -2.31 -2.54 -2.61
Earnings Manipulation Probability 0.31% 0.48% 1.05% 0.55% 0.46%
Other comprehensive income items -397.7% -122.7% -83.2% -1893.2% -127.0% -11.2%
Comprehensive Income -80.6% 407.5% -5.3% -40.7% 80.0% -0.1%
COMMON SIZE BALANCE SHEET - AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL ASSETS
Year 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Assets:
Cash and cash equivalents 5.7% 9.9% 8.7% 5.6% 8.4%
Marketable securities 0.6% 0.5% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4%
Accounts and notes receivablenet 13.0% 11.6% 9.3% 9.5% 9.4%
Inventories 7.0% 6.6% 4.9% 5.3% 4.8%
Prepaid expenses and other current assets 3.7% 3.0% 2.2% 3.1% 2.0%
Deferred tax assetscurrent
Other current assets (1)
Other current assets (2)
Current Assets 30.0% 31.5% 25.8% 23.9% 25.1%
Investments in noncontrolled affiliates 10.8% 11.3% 2.0% 2.0% 2.2%
Property, plant, and equipmentat cost 62.7% 62.5% 48.5% 48.2% 48.4%
<Accumulated depreciation> -30.3% -30.7% -20.5% -21.2% -22.8%
Amortizable intangible assets (net) 2.0% 2.1% 3.0% 2.6% 2.4%
Goodwill 14.2% 16.4% 21.5% 23.1% 22.7%
Other nonamortizable intangible assets 3.1% 4.5% 17.3% 20.0% 19.8%
Deferred tax assetsnon current
Other assets 7.4% 2.4% 2.5% 1.4% 2.2%
Total Assets 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
RETURN ON COMMON SHAREHOLDERS' EQUITY ANALYSIS (excluding the effects of non-recurring items)
INPUT VARIABLES
Total Revenues 57,838 66,504 65,492
Net Operating Profit After Tax (NOPAT) 7,387 7,679 7,162
Net Financing Expense After Tax 714 646 710
Average Net Operating Assets 35,840 47,023 49,215
Average Financing Obligations 16,749 26,034 27,655
Average Common Equity 19,091 20,989 21,561
Operating Activities:
Net Income 5,166 5,979 6,338 6,462 6,214
Add back depreciation and amortization expense 1,543 1,635 2,327 2,737 2,689
Net cash flows for working capital -424 264 763 -844 434
Other net addbacks/subtractions 714 -1,082 -980 589 -858
Net CF from Operating Activities 6,999 6,796 8,448 8,944 8,479
Investing Activities:
Capital expenditures (net) -2,348 -2,070 -3,172 -3,255 -2,619
Investments -279 -346 -4,479 -2,347 -398
Other investing transactions -40 15 -17 -16 12
Net CF from Investing Activities -2,667 -2,401 -7,668 -5,618 -3,005
Financing Activities:
Net proceeds from short-term borrowing 445 -1,018 2,482 303 -1,461
Net proceeds from long-term borrowing 3,070 831 5,892 633 3,550
Net proceeds from share issues and repurchases -4,106 448 -3,838 -1,481 -1,980
Dividends -2,541 -2,732 -2,978 -3,157 -3,305
Other financing transactions 107 -26 -172 -1,433 -110
Net CF from Financing Activities -3,025 -2,497 1,386 -5,135 -3,306
Actuals Forecasts
Year 2010 2011 2012 Year +1 Year +2 Year +3 Year +4 Year +5
Frito-Lay North America 12,573 13,322 13,574 13,984 14,406 14,841 15,584 15,751
Quaker Foods North America 2,656 2,656 2,636 2,636 2,636 2,636 2,686 2,635
Latin America Foods 6,315 7,156 7,780 8,415 9,101 9,844 10,852 11,516
PepsiCo Americas Beverages 20,401 22,418 21,408 22,055 22,721 23,407 24,577 24,842
Europe 9,602 13,560 13,441 13,984 14,549 15,137 16,051 16,385
Asia, Middle East & Africa 6,291 7,392 6,653 7,125 7,631 8,173 8,922 9,375
PepsiCo Total Net Revenues 57,838 66,504 65,492 68,198 71,044 74,038 78,672 80,504
growth rates 15.0% -1.5% 4.1% 4.2% 4.2% 6.3% 2.3%
Sales Forecasts for PepsiCo by Division: 2010 2011 2012 Year +1 Year +2 Year +3 Year +4 Year +5
Frito-Lay North America 12,573 13,322 13,574 13,984 14,406 14,841 15,584 15,751
overall growth rates 6.0% 1.9% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 5.0% 1.1%
growth in volume 2.0% -1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%
growth from price changes 2.0% 4.8% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%
impact of foreign currency translation 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
53rd week effect 1.9% -1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.9% -1.9%
Quaker Foods North America 2,656 2,656 2,636 2,636 2,636 2,636 2,686 2,635
overall growth rates 0.0% -0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.9% -1.9%
growth in volume -5.0% -1.0% -1.0% -1.0% -1.0% -1.0% -1.0%
growth from price changes 2.1% 2.1% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%
impact of foreign currency translation 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
53rd week effect 1.9% -1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.9% -1.9%
Latin America Foods 6,315 7,156 7,780 8,415 9,101 9,844 10,852 11,516
overall growth rates 13.3% 8.7% 8.2% 8.2% 8.2% 10.2% 6.1%
growth in volume and acquisitions 3.5% 6.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0%
growth from price changes 5.9% 11.6% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0%
impact of foreign currency translation 2.0% -7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
53rd week effect 1.9% -1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.9% -1.9%
PepsiCo Americas Beverages 20,401 22,418 21,408 22,055 22,721 23,407 24,577 24,842
overall growth rates 9.9% -4.5% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 5.0% 1.1%
growth in volume and acquisitions 6.0% -7.5% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%
growth from price changes 1.0% 4.9% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%
impact of foreign currency translation 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
53rd week effect 1.9% -1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.9% -1.9%
Asia, Middle East & Africa 6,291 7,392 6,653 7,125 7,631 8,173 8,922 9,375
overall growth rates 17.5% -10.0% 7.1% 7.1% 7.1% 9.2% 5.1%
growth in volume and acquisitions 10.0% -9.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%
growth from price changes 3.6% 3.9% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%
impact of foreign currency translation 2.0% -3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
53rd week effect 1.9% -1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.9% -1.9%
Forecast Development: Capital Expenditures, Property, Plant and Equipment, and Depreciation
Property, Plant and Equipment and Depreciation Property, Plant and Equipment and Depreciation Forecasts:
PP&E at cost: 2010 2011 2012 Year +1 Year +2 Year +3 Year +4 Year +5
Beg. balance at cost: 36,162 39,162 42,572 46,126 49,902
Add: CAPEX forecasts from above: 3,000 3,410 3,554 3,776 3,864
End balance at cost: 33,041 35,140 36,162 39,162 42,572 46,126 49,902 53,766
Accumulated Depreciation:
Beg. Balance: -17,026 -19,760 -22,732 -25,953 -29,437
Subtract: Depreciation expense forecasts from below: -2,734 -2,972 -3,220 -3,484 -3,754
End Balance: -13,983 -15,442 -17,026 -19,760 -22,732 -25,953 -29,437 -33,190
PP&E - net 19,058 19,698 19,136 19,402 19,840 20,173 20,466 20,576
Actuals Forecasts
Year 2010 2011 2012 Year +1 Year +2 Year +3 Year +4 Year +5 Year +6
INCOME STATEMENT
Revenues 57,838 66,504 65,492 68,198 71,044 74,038 78,672 80,504 82,919
common size 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 4.1% 4.2% 4.2% 6.3% 2.3%
rate of change 15.0% -1.5% See Forecast Development worksheet for details of revenues forecasts.
<Cost of goods sold> -26,575 -31,593 -31,291 -32,667 -34,101 -35,612 -37,920 -38,883 -40,050
common size -45.9% -47.5% -47.8% -47.9% -48.0% -48.1% -48.2% -48.3%
rate of change 18.9% -1.0% Assume slowly increasing cost of goods sold as a percent of sales.
Gross Profit 31,263 34,911 34,201 35,531 36,943 38,426 40,752 41,621 42,869
common size 54.1% 52.5% 52.2% 52.1% 52.0% 51.9% 51.8% 51.7% 51.7%
rate of change 11.7% -2.0% 3.9% 4.0% 4.0% 6.1% 2.1%
<Selling, general and administrative expenses> -22,814 -25,145 -24,970 -25,984 -27,068 -28,208 -29,974 -30,672 -31,592
common size -39.4% -37.8% -38.1% -38.1% -38.1% -38.1% -38.1% -38.1%
rate of change 10.2% -0.7% Assume steady SG&A expense as a percent of sales.
<Research and development expenses> 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
rate of change Explain assumptions.
<Amortization of intangible assets> -117 -133 -119 -110 -95 -86 -78 -72 -74
common size -0.2% -0.2% -0.2%
rate of change 13.7% -10.5% Amounts based on PepsiCo disclosures in Note 4.
<Other operating expenses (1)> 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
rate of change Explain assumptions.
<Other operating expenses (2)> 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
rate of change Explain assumptions.
Other operating income (1) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
rate of change Explain assumptions.
Other operating income (2) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
rate of change Explain assumptions.
Non-recurring operating gains <losses> 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
rate of change Explain assumptions
Operating Profit 8,332 9,633 9,112 9,438 9,780 10,131 10,700 10,877 11,203
common size 14.4% 14.5% 13.9% 13.8% 13.8% 13.7% 13.6% 13.5% 13.5%
rate of change 15.6% -5.4% 3.6% 3.6% 3.6% 5.6% 1.6%
Interest income 68 57 91 61 56 58 61 63 65
common size 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%
rate of change -16.2% 59.6% Assume 1.0% interest earned on avg balance in cash and marketable securities.
<Interest expense> -903 -856 -899 -1,049 -1,087 -1,136 -1,196 -1,248 -1,286
common size -1.6% -1.3% -1.4% -3.65% -3.65% -3.65% -3.65% -3.65%
rate of change -5.2% 5.0% Weighted average interest rate on financial liabilities.
Income <Loss> from equity affiliates 735 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 1.3% 0.0% 0.0%
rate of change -100.0% Explain assumptions
Other income or gains <Other expenses or losses> 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
rate of change Explain assumptions
Income before Tax 8,232 8,834 8,304 8,450 8,749 9,053 9,565 9,691 9,982
common size 14.2% 13.3% 12.7% 12.4% 12.3% 12.2% 12.2% 12.0% 12.0%
rate of change 7.3% -6.0% 1.8% 3.5% 3.5% 5.7% 1.3%
<Income tax expense> -1,894 -2,372 -2,090 -2,281 -2,362 -2,444 -2,583 -2,617 -2,695
common size -3.3% -3.6% -3.2% -27.0% -27.0% -27.0% -27.0% -27.0%
rate of change 25.2% -11.9% Assume effective income tax rate equal to that of past two years.
Income <Loss> from discontinued operations 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
rate of change Explain assumptions
Extraordinary gains <losses> 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
rate of change Explain assumptions
Changes in accounting principles 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
rate of change Explain assumptions
Net Income 6,338 6,462 6,214 6,168 6,387 6,609 6,983 7,075 7,287
common size 11.0% 9.7% 9.5% 9.0% 9.0% 8.9% 8.9% 8.8% 8.8%
rate of change 2.0% -3.8% -0.7% 3.5% 3.5% 5.7% 1.3% 3.0%
Net income attributable to noncontrolling interests -18 -19 -36 -10.5 -10.5 -10.5 -10.5 -10.5 -10.8
common size 0.0% 0.0% -0.1% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10%
rate of change 5.6% 89.5% Assume noncontrolling interests earn a 10% rate of return.
Net Income attributable to common shareholders 6,320 6,443 6,178 6,158 6,377 6,598 6,972 7,064 7,276
common size 10.9% 9.7% 9.4% 9.0% 9.0% 8.9% 8.9% 8.8% 8.8%
rate of change 1.9% -4.1% -0.3% 3.6% 3.5% 5.7% 1.3% 3.0%
Actuals Forecasts
2010 2011 2012 Year +1 Year +2 Year +3 Year +4 Year +5 Year +6
BALANCE SHEET
ASSETS:
Cash and cash equivalents 5,943 4,067 6,297 5,232 5,450 5,680 6,035 6,176 6,361
common size 8.7% 5.6% 8.4% 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0
rate of change -31.6% 54.8% Assume ending cash balances equal to 28 days sales.
Marketable securities 426 358 322 293 267 243 221 201 207
common size 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% -9% -9% -9% -9% -9%
rate of change -16.0% -10.1% Assume 9 percent decline, consistent with trend since 2010.
Accounts and notes receivablenet 6,323 6,912 7,041 7,287 7,591 7,911 8,406 8,602 8,860
common size 9.3% 9.5% 9.4% 39.0 39.0 39.0 39.0 39.0
rate of change 9.3% 1.9% Assume ending accounts receivable equals 39 days sales.
Inventories 3,372 3,827 3,581 3,938 4,158 4,391 4,727 4,900 5,047
common size 4.9% 5.3% 4.8% 44.0 44.5 45.0 45.5 46.0
rate of change 13.5% -6.4% Assume continued increase in ending inventory, consistent with recent trend.
Prepaid expenses and other current assets 1,505 2,277 1,479 1,540 1,604 1,672 1,777 1,818 1,873
common size 2.2% 3.1% 2.0% 4.1% 4.2% 4.2% 6.3% 2.3%
rate of change 51.3% -35.0% Assume growth with SG&A expenses, which grow with sales.
Deferred tax assetscurrent 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
rate of change Explain assumptions
Other current assets (1) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
rate of change Explain assumptions
Other current assets (2) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
rate of change Explain assumptions
Current Assets 17,569 17,441 18,720 18,290 19,070 19,896 21,166 21,697 22,348
common size 25.8% 23.9% 25.1% 24.1% 24.3% 24.5% 24.8% 24.9% 24.9%
rate of change -0.7% 7.3% -2.3% 4.3% 4.3% 6.4% 2.5% 3.0%
Investments in noncontrolled affiliates 1,368 1,477 1,633 1,764 1,905 2,057 2,222 2,399 2,471
common size 2.0% 2.0% 2.2% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8%
rate of change 8.0% 10.6% Assume 8% growth, consistent with past two years.
Property, plant, and equipmentat cost 33,041 35,140 36,162 39,162 42,572 46,126 49,902 53,766 55,379
common size 48.5% 48.2% 48.4%
rate of change 6.4% 2.9% PP&E assumptions - see schedule in forecast development
<Accumulated depreciation> -13,983 -15,442 -17,026 -19,760 -22,732 -25,953 -29,437 -33,190 -34,186
common size -20.5% -21.2% -22.8%
rate of change 10.4% 10.3% See depreciation schedule in forecast development worksheet.
Amortizable intangible assets (net) 2,025 1,888 1,781 1,671 1,576 1,490 1,412 1,340 1,380
common size 3.0% 2.6% 2.4% -110 -95 -86 -78 -72
rate of change -6.8% -5.7% Assume amortization per PepsiCo disclosures in Note 4.
Goodwill 14,661 16,800 16,971 17,672 18,410 19,185 20,386 20,861 21,487
common size 21.5% 23.1% 22.7% 4.1% 4.2% 4.2% 6.3% 2.3%
rate of change 14.6% 1.0% Assume growth with sales.
Other nonamortizable intangible assets 11,783 14,557 14,744 15,353 15,994 16,668 17,711 18,124 18,667
common size 17.3% 20.0% 19.8% 4.1% 4.2% 4.2% 6.3% 2.3%
rate of change 23.5% 1.3% Assume growth with sales.
Deferred tax assetsnon current 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
rate of change Explain assumptions
Other assets 1,689 1,021 1,653 1,721 1,793 1,869 1,986 2,032 2,093
common size 2.5% 1.4% 2.2% 4.1% 4.2% 4.2% 6.3% 2.3%
rate of change -39.6% 61.9% Assume growth with sales.
Total Assets 68,153 72,882 74,638 75,873 78,587 81,338 85,348 87,029 89,640
common size 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
rate of change 6.9% 2.4% 1.7% 3.6% 3.5% 4.9% 2.0% 3.0%
LIABILITIES:
Accounts payable 3,865 4,083 4,451 4,524 4,701 4,910 5,241 5,350 5,511
common size 5.7% 5.6% 6.0% 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0
rate of change 5.6% 9.0% Assume a 50 day payment period consistent with prior year.
Current accrued expenses 7,058 7,674 7,452 7,760 8,084 8,424 8,952 9,160 9,435
common size 10.4% 10.5% 10.0% 4.1% 4.2% 4.2% 6.3% 2.3%
rate of change 8.7% -2.9% Assume growth with SG&A expenses, which grow with sales.
Notes payable and short-term debt 4,898 6,205 4,815 4,943 5,169 5,402 5,722 5,892 6,069
common size 7.2% 8.5% 6.5% 2.7% 4.6% 4.5% 5.9% 3.0%
rate of change 26.7% -22.4% Assume growth that is one perrcent faster than total assets growth.
Current maturities of long-term debt 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
rate of change Explain assumptions
Deferred tax liabilitiescurrent 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
rate of change Explain assumptions
Income taxes payable 71 192 371 379 393 407 427 435 448
common size 0.1% 0.3% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%
rate of change 170.4% 93.2% Assume a constant 0.5% of total assets.
Other current liabilities (2) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
rate of change Explain assumptions
Other current liabilities (1) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
rate of change Explain assumptions
Current Liabilities 15,892 18,154 17,089 17,606 18,347 19,143 20,341 20,837 21,463
common size 23.3% 24.9% 22.9% 23.2% 23.3% 23.5% 23.8% 23.9% 23.9%
rate of change 14.2% -5.9% 3.0% 4.2% 4.3% 6.3% 2.4%
Long-term debt obligations 19,999 20,568 23,544 24,169 25,275 26,413 27,979 28,810 29,674
common size 29.3% 28.2% 31.5% 2.7% 4.6% 4.5% 5.9% 3.0%
rate of change 2.8% 14.5% Assume growth that is one percent faster than total assets growth.
Long-term accrued liabilities 6,729 8,266 6,543 6,813 7,098 7,397 7,860 8,043 8,284
common size 9.9% 11.3% 8.8% 4.1% 4.2% 4.2% 6.3% 2.3%
rate of change 22.8% -20.8% Assume growth with SG&A expenses, which grow with sales.
Deferred tax liabilitiesnoncurrent 4,057 4,995 5,063 5,159 5,344 5,531 5,804 5,918 6,095
common size 6.0% 6.9% 6.8% 6.8% 6.8% 6.8% 6.8% 6.8%
rate of change 23.1% 1.4% Assume a constant 6.8% of total assets.
Other noncurrent liabilities (1) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
rate of change Explain assumptions
Other noncurrent liabilities (2) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
rate of change Explain assumptions
Total Liabilities 46,677 51,983 52,239 53,748 56,064 58,484 61,984 63,608 65,516
common size 68.5% 71.3% 70.0% 70.8% 71.3% 71.9% 72.6% 73.1% 73.1%
rate of change 11.4% 0.5% 2.9% 4.3% 4.3% 6.0% 2.6% 3.0%
SHAREHOLDERS' EQUITY
Preferred stock -109 -116 -123 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size -0.2% -0.2% -0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
rate of change 6.4% 6.0% Assume preferred stock retired.
Common stock + Additional paid in capital 4,558 4,487 4,204 4,249 4,401 4,555 4,779 4,874 5,020
common size 6.7% 6.2% 5.6% 5.6% 5.6% 5.6% 5.6% 5.6%
rate of change -1.6% -6.3% Assume steady percent of total assets.
Retained earnings <deficit> 37,090 40,316 43,158 45,866 48,735 51,705 54,842 58,021 59,762
common size 54.4% 55.3% 57.8%
rate of change 8.7% 7.0% Add net income and subtract dividends; see dividends forecast box below.
Accum. other comprehensive income <loss> -3,630 -6,229 -5,487 -5,487 -5,487 -5,487 -5,487 -5,487 -5,487
common size -5.3% -8.5% -7.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
rate of change 71.6% -11.9% Add accumulated other comprehensive income items from income statement
<Treasury stock> and other equity adjustments -16,745 -17,870 -19,458 -22,608 -25,231 -28,023 -30,875 -34,092 -35,279
common size -24.6% -24.5% -26.1% -3,150 -2,624 -2,792 -2,852 -3,217
rate of change 6.7% 8.9% Treasury stock repurchases, net of treasury stock reissues.
Total Common Shareholders' Equity 21,273 20,704 22,417 22,020 22,418 22,749 23,260 23,316 24,015
common size 31.2% 28.4% 30.0% 29.0% 28.5% 28.0% 27.3% 26.8%
rate of change -2.7% 8.3% -1.8% 1.8% 1.5% 2.2% 0.2% 3.0%
Noncontrolling interests 312 311 105 105 105 105 105 105 108.2
common size 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
rate of change -0.3% -66.2% Assume noncontrolling interests remain constant; all earnings distributed.
Total Equity 21,585 21,015 22,522 22,125 22,523 22,854 23,365 23,421 24,123
common size 31.7% 28.8% 30.2% 29.2% 28.7% 28.1% 27.4% 26.9%
rate of change -2.6% 7.2% -1.8% 1.8% 1.5% 2.2% 0.2%
Total Liabilities and Equities 68,153 72,882 74,638 75,873 78,587 81,338 85,348 87,029 89,640
common size 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
rate of change 6.9% 2.4% 1.7% 3.6% 3.5% 4.9% 2.0% 3.0%
Check figures: Balance Sheet A=L+OE? 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Initial adjustment needed to balance the balance sheet:
-150 376 208 148 -217 -1,187
Dividends forecasts:
Common dividends: 3,387 3,507 3,629 3,835 3,885 5,535
55.0% 55.0% 55.0% 55.0% 55.0%
Assume 55% payout of net income available to common shareholders.
Preferred dividends: 63 0 0 0 0 0
63.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Assume $63 million paid to retire preferred shares.
Total dividends: 3,450 3,507 3,629 3,835 3,885 5,535
Total dividend forecast amounts.
Flexible Financial Account: Treasury Stock Purchases:
Original Forecast Amounts:
Treasury Stock Purchases: -3,000 -3,000 -3,000 -3,000 -3,000
-3,000 -3,000 -3,000 -3,000 -3,000
Treasury stock repurchases, net of reissues, per PepsiCo disclosures.
Implied adjustments: -150 376 208 148 -217 -1187
Adjustment needed to balance the balance sheet, from above.
Total: -3150 -2624 -2792 -2852 -3217 -1187
Total Treasury Stock Purchase Amounts
Actuals Forecasts
IMPLIED STATEMENT OF CASH FLOWS 2011 2012 Year +1 Year +2 Year +3 Year +4 Year +5 Year +6
Net Income 6,462 6,214 6,168 6,387 6,609 6,983 7,075 7,287
Add back depreciation expense (net) 1,459 1,584 2,734 2,972 3,220 3,484 3,754 996
Add back amortization expense (net) 133 119 110 95 86 78 72 74
<Increase> Decrease in receivables - net -589 -129 -246 -304 -320 -495 -196 -258
<Increase> Decrease in inventories -455 246 -357 -220 -233 -336 -173 -147
<Increase> Decrease in prepaid expenses -772 798 -61 -64 -68 -105 -41 -55
<Increase> Decrease in other current assets (1) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
<Increase> Decrease in other current assets (2) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Increase <Decrease> in accounts payable - trade 218 368 73 178 209 330 110 161
Increase <Decrease> in current accrued liabilities 616 -222 308 324 341 527 208 275
Increase <Decrease> in income taxes payable 121 179 8 14 14 20 8 13
Increase <Decrease> in other current liabilities (1) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Increase <Decrease> in other current liabilities (2) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Net change in deferred tax assets and liabilities 938 68 96 185 187 273 114 178
Increase <Decrease> in long-term accrued liabilities 1,537 -1,723 270 284 299 463 183 241
Increase <Decrease> in other noncurrent liabilities (1) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Increase <Decrease> in other noncurrent liabilities (2) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Net Cash Flows from Operations 9,668 7,502 9,104 9,850 10,344 11,222 11,114 8,764
<Increase> Decrease in property, plant, & equip. at cost -2,099 -1,022 -3,000 -3,410 -3,554 -3,776 -3,864 -1,613
<Increase> Decrease in marketable securities 68 36 29 26 24 22 20 -6
<Increase> Decrease in investment securities -109 -156 -131 -141 -152 -165 -178 -72
<Increase> Decrease in amortizable intangible assets (net) 4 -12 0 0 0 0 0 -114
<Increase> Decrease in goodwill and nonamort. intangibles -4,913 -358 -1,311 -1,378 -1,450 -2,244 -887 -1,170
<Increase> Decrease in other noncurrent assets (1) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
<Increase> Decrease in other noncurrent assets (2) 668 -632 -68 -72 -76 -117 -46 -61
Net Cash Flows from Investing Activities -6,381 -2,144 -4,481 -4,975 -5,207 -6,280 -4,955 -3,036
Increase <Decrease> in short-term debt 1,307 -1,390 128 226 233 320 170 177
Increase <Decrease> in long-term debt 569 2,976 625 1,106 1,138 1,566 831 864
Increase <Decrease> in preferred stock -7 -7 123 0 0 0 0 0
Increase <Decrease> in common stock + paid in capital -71 -283 45 152 154 225 94 146
Increase <Decrease> in accum. OCI -2,599 742 0 0 0 0 0 0
Increase <Decrease> in treasury stock and other equity adjs. -1,125 -1,588 -3,150 -2,624 -2,792 -2,852 -3,217 -1,187
Dividends -3,217 -3,336 -3,450 -3,507 -3,629 -3,835 -3,885 -5,535
Increase <Decrease> in noncontrolling interests -20 -242 -11 -11 -11 -11 -11 -8
Net Cash Flows from Financing Activities -5,163 -3,128 -5,689 -4,657 -4,907 -4,586 -6,018 -5,543
Net Change in Cash -1,876 2,230 -1,065 218 230 356 141 185
Check Figure:
Net change in cash - Change in cash balance 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FSAP OUTPUT: FINANCIAL STATEMENT FORECASTS
Analyst Name: Wahlen, Baginski & Bradshaw
Company Name: PepsiCo
Actuals Forecasts
2010 2011 2012 Year +1 Year +2 Year +3 Year +4 Year +5 Year +6
FORECAST VALIDITY CHECK DATA:
GROWTH
Revenue Growth Rates: 33.8% 15.0% -1.5% 4.1% 4.2% 4.2% 6.3% 2.3% 3.0%
Net Income Growth Rates: 6.3% 1.9% -4.1% -0.7% 3.5% 3.5% 5.7% 1.3% 3.0%
Total Asset Growth Rates 71.0% 6.9% 2.4% 1.7% 3.6% 3.5% 4.9% 2.0% 3.0%
ASSET TURNOVER:
Revenues / Avg. Accounts Receivable 10.6 10.0 9.4 9.5 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.5 9.5
COGS / Average Inventory 8.9 8.8 8.4 8.7 8.4 8.3 8.3 8.1 8.1
Revenues / Average Fixed Assets 3.6 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.9 3.9 4.0
LIQUIDITY:
Current Ratio 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Quick Ratio 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
SOLVENCY:
Total Liabilities / Total Assets 68.5% 71.3% 70.0% 70.8% 71.3% 71.9% 72.6% 73.1% 73.1%
Total Liabilities / Total Equity 217.3% 248.7% 233.2% 244.1% 250.1% 257.1% 266.5% 272.8% 272.8%
Interest Coverage Ratio 10.1 11.3 10.2 9.1 9.0 9.0 9.0 8.8 8.8
Financial Statement Analysis Package (FSAP): Version 8.0
Financial Reporting, Financial Statement Analysis, and Valuation: A Strategic Perspective, 8th Edition
By James Wahlen, Steve Baginski and Mark Bradshaw
GROWTH:
Long-run growth assumption used in forecasts 3.0%
Long-run growth assumption used in valuation. 3.0%
(Both long-run growth assumptions should be the same.)
1 2 3 4 5
Dividends-Based Valuation Year +1 Year +2 Year +3 Year +4 Year +5
1 2 3 4 5
Free Cash Flows for Common Equity Year +1 Year +2 Year +3 Year +4 Year +5
Net Cash Flow from Operations 9,104.3 9,850.3 10,344.0 11,221.7 11,113.7
Decrease (Increase) in Cash Required for Operations 1,065.3 -218.3 -229.6 -355.5 -140.5
Net Cash Flow from Investing -4,480.6 -4,974.8 -5,207.4 -6,280.2 -4,955.4
Net Cash Flow from Debt Financing 752.9 1,332.4 1,370.2 1,886.6 1,000.6
Net Cash Flow into Financial Assets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net Cash FlowPref. Stock and Noncontrolling Interests 49.5 -10.5 -10.5 -10.5 -10.5
Free Cash Flow for Common Equity 6,491.4 5,979.0 6,266.7 6,462.1 7,008.0
1 2 3 4 5
RESIDUAL INCOME VALUATION Year +1 Year +2 Year +3 Year +4 Year +5
Comprehensive Income Available
for Common Shareholders 6,094.7 6,376.6 6,598.3 6,972.2 7,064.2
Lagged Book Value of Common
Shareholders' Equity (at t-1) 22,417.0 22,020.3 22,417.9 22,749.5 23,259.5
Sensitivity analysis for the market-to-book approach should be identical to that of the residual income approach.
FSAP OUTPUT: VALUATION MODELS
Analyst Name: Wahlen, Baginski & Bradshaw
Company Name: PepsiCo
1 2 3 4 5
Free Cash Flows for All Debt and Equity Year +1 Year +2 Year +3 Year +4 Year +5
Net Cash Flow from Operations 9,104.3 9,850.3 10,344.0 11,221.7 11,113.7
Add back: Interest Expense after tax 765.7 793.4 829.4 872.8 911.3
Subtract: Interest Income after tax 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Decrease (Increase) in Cash Required for Operations 1,065.3 -218.3 -229.6 -355.5 -140.5
Free Cash Flow from Operations 10,935.3 10,425.4 10,943.8 11,739.0 11,884.5
Net Cash Flow from Investing -4,480.6 -4,974.8 -5,207.4 -6,280.2 -4,955.4
Add back: Net CFs into Financial Assets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Free Cash Flows - All Debt and Equity 6,454.7 5,450.6 5,736.4 5,458.8 6,929.1
6,576.6
Continuing
Value
Year +6
8,764.4
-185.3
-3,035.9
1,041.1
0.0
-7.7
6,576.6
10%
-38.11
-49.73
-69.00
-84.38
-107.40
-222.36
#DIV/0!
236.75
121.80
83.42
64.18
52.60
35.10
29.20
Continuing
Value
Year +6
7,276.1
23,315.8
1,748.7
5,527.4
10%
-38.11
-49.73
-69.00
-84.38
-107.40
-222.36
#DIV/0!
236.75
121.80
83.42
64.18
52.60
35.10
29.20
Continuing
Value
Year +6
7,276.1
23,315.8
31.2%
23.7%
104.0%
24.7%
Continuing
Value
Year +6
8,764.4
938.6
0.0
-185.3
9,517.7
-3,035.9
0.0
6,481.9