Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
20 March 2017
1 / 39
MOD004491 Corporate FinanceBehavioural Finance and Technical Analysis
Highlights
2 / 39
MOD004491 Corporate FinanceBehavioural Finance and Technical Analysis
Recall when we talked about the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), academics in
the 1960s and early 70s traditionally support EMH whilst most practitioners have not.
In a sense, theory ignores some aspects of investors behaviour.
This is changing with the development of behavioural finance. It stresses the irra-
tionality of investors in terms of information processing and behavioural biases.
Began with the studies that identified anomalies.
Slowly, during the 1980s and 1990s explanations for these anomalies were suggested
based on theories taken from psychology, especially the Judgement and Decision mak-
ing literature (e.g. Kahneman and Tversky).
Early pioneers included: Robert Shiller (Irrational Exuberance), Richard Thaler, Hersh
Shefrin (Beyond Greed and Fear), Meir Statman, Andrei Shleifer...
3 / 39
MOD004491 Corporate FinanceBehavioural Finance and Technical Analysis
Underlying the EMH is the idea that there may be irrational traders out there, but
there are enough smart traders, who tend to have the most money, to dominate
central role of arbitrage (getting something for nothing).
Two central assumptions of behavioural finance:
(i) It is not riskless;
(ii) There can be institutional restrictions.
Individuals are subject to cognitive biases and heuristics (trial and error).
(i) Cognitive biases: people make predictable mistakes when assessing information (e.g.
Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman);
(ii) Heuristics are rules of thumb for decision making.
4 / 39
MOD004491 Corporate FinanceBehavioural Finance and Technical Analysis
Convergence arbitrage short and long positions in instruments that must converge
at some point.
Royal Dutch and Shell merged in 1907. They continue to trade on different stock
markets (Royal Dutch mainly in the US and NL, Shell mainly in London).
All cash flows, adjusting for tax, etc., are split 60:40.
This implies that Royal Dutch should, at all times, be 1.5 times the value of Shell.
Divergence from this ratio triggers arbitrage trades (this was one of LTCMs trades!)
5 / 39
MOD004491 Corporate FinanceBehavioural Finance and Technical Analysis
Source: Lamont and Thaler. Anomalies: the law of one price in financial markets. Journal of Economic
Perspectives. 17(4). pp. 191-202.
6 / 39
MOD004491 Corporate FinanceBehavioural Finance and Technical Analysis
Another example...
In the 1990s: sustained bull market led by Technology, Media and Telecommunications
(TMT) stocks.
Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratios doubled from their historical levels.
Had fundamental changed so much to justify this? No!
Behavioural Finance (BF) would view this example as overreaction fuelled by irrational
exuberance.
Evidence suggests that firms adding .com to the end of their names in the 1990s
enjoyed a meaningful price increase: does this sound rational?
NB: irrational exuberance was first used by the then Federal Reserve Chairman, Alan Greenspan, in a speech
with the American Enterprise Institute during the dot.com bubble in the 1990s.
Also the title of Robert J. Shillers book, Irrational Exuberance.
Cf. Cooper, Michael J, Dimitrov, Orlin and Rau, P. Raghavendra. A Rose.com by any other name. December
2001. The Journal of Finance 56(6). pp. 2371-2388.
Cf. Vise, David A. The Google Story. 2008. Pan Publisher.
7 / 39
MOD004491 Corporate FinanceBehavioural Finance and Technical Analysis
A bit of psychology
The idea of behavioural finance came from the studies in psychology, notably the works
of Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky in developing Prospect Theory.
Prospect Theory studies how people form decisions about prospects (here prospects
refer to gambling or uncertainty). To main ideas under the theory are: The value
function (shown below) and the weighting function.
The value function shows that people tend to react more pronounced to little losses
than they do with little gains (concave down on the gains like diminishing marginal
utility in economics, but concave up with losses).
With the weight function (not shown here), it dictates that people generally assign
probability zero for things that they know for sure will not happen and one if it will
happen. Anywhere else in between zero and one, people tend to exaggerate downwards
(all the way to zero) or upwards (all the way to one). 8 / 39
MOD004491 Corporate FinanceBehavioural Finance and Technical Analysis
Overconfidence:
(i) Overconfident investors underestimate risk (by investing in riskier assets with little
diversification) (put all eggs in one basket).
(ii) Seeing patterns where there are none.
(iii) The gamblers fallacy (for expecting reversal).
(iv) Hot hands effect (for expecting a continuation). This may result in frequent trading
than necessary (higher transaction costs).
Investors tend to make forecasts that are too extreme given the uncertainty of their
information (e.g. PE effect).
Conservatism: investors are too slow (conservative) in updating their beliefs in response
to recent evidence (e.g. momentum in stock market returns calculated, for example,
using returns of the best performing stocks over the past 6 months minus the return
on the worst performing).
9 / 39
MOD004491 Corporate FinanceBehavioural Finance and Technical Analysis
Test of overconfidence
PollEV
10 / 39
MOD004491 Corporate FinanceBehavioural Finance and Technical Analysis
In his book, Thinking, Fast and Slow, Kahneman offers an anecdote to illustrate affect
heuristic. Talking with an investment officer who explained his decision to invest a
large sum in Ford stock by recounting a recent trip to a car exhibition where he had
been really impressed: boy, do they know how to make a car.
What is wrong with this line of reasoning?
Affect heuristic: making decisions that are guided by liking and disliking.
Note how a hard question was (subconsciously) replaced by an easy question.
Representativeness: can be thought of as similar to stereotyping. A good company is
mistaken for a good investment.
NB: This is also an issue of cognitive dissonance, or the judgemental bias that people tend to make because
they do not want to admit that they are wrong (i.e. forget the evidence).
Festinger, Leon. A Theory of cognitive dissonance. 1957. Stanford University Press.
11 / 39
MOD004491 Corporate FinanceBehavioural Finance and Technical Analysis
Lakonishok, Josef., Shleifer, Andrei., and Vishny, Robert W. Contrarian investment, extrapolation, and risk.
December 1994. The Journal of Finance. 49(5). pp. 1541-1578.
12 / 39
MOD004491 Corporate FinanceBehavioural Finance and Technical Analysis
Technical analysis
Technical analysts are those traders that use trend analysis to uncover trading oppor-
tunities.
They are often called chartists because they make use of charts to seek patterns.
They operate under the assumption that as long as anomalies in asset pricing persist,
technical analysis may be considered a defensible tool to exploit observed inefficient
prices.
Trends in prices can be exploited (i.e. markets are somewhat inefficient).
Technical analysis is essentially a reflection of idea that stock market moves in trends
which are determined by the changing attitudes of investors to a variety of economic,
monetary, political and psychological forces...The art of technical analysis, for it is
an art, is to identify changes in such trends at an early stage and to maintain an
investment posture until a reversal of that trend is indicated (Pring, 1985).
Cf. Pring, Martin J. Technical Analysis Explained: The Successful Investors Guide to Spotting Trends and
Turning Points. 2014. McGraw-Hill Education.
Cf. Edwards, Robert D., and Magee, John. Technical Analysis of Stock Trends. 2013. CRC Press.
13 / 39
MOD004491 Corporate FinanceBehavioural Finance and Technical Analysis
Dow Theory
Point and Figure Chart
Moving Averages and Bollinger Bands
Breadth
Relative Strength
Sentiment indicators such as: Trin Statistics, Confidence Index, Short Interest, Credit
Balances in brokerage accounts and Head and Shoulder.
14 / 39
MOD004491 Corporate FinanceBehavioural Finance and Technical Analysis
Dow theory trends: The three components of the stock price movements
16 / 39
MOD004491 Corporate FinanceBehavioural Finance and Technical Analysis
The Dow Theory incorporates the notions of support and resistance levels in stock
prices:
(i) A support level is a value below which the market is unlikely to fall.
(ii) A resistance level is a level above which it is difficult to rise.
Support and resistance levels are determined by the recent history in stock prices.
Resistance is equivalent to a supply line: when prices increase, the quantity of sellers
also increases as more investors are willing to sell at these higher prices. When too
much selling occurs, however, prices retreat. When this happens repeatedly near a
specific price level, resistance forms at that price level.
Support is equivalent to a demand line: when prices decrease, the quantity of buyers
increases as more investors are willing to buy at lower prices. When too much buying
occurs, however, prices rise. When this happens repeatedly near a specific price level,
support forms at that price level.
17 / 39
MOD004491 Corporate FinanceBehavioural Finance and Technical Analysis
If stock prices were to actually follow any of these patterns, profit opportunities would
result.
The patterns are reasonably straightforward to discern, meaning that future prices can
be extrapolated from current prices.
Problem: Would we be able to recognise patterns as they emerge?
We will see support and resistance charts momentarily...
18 / 39
MOD004491 Corporate FinanceBehavioural Finance and Technical Analysis
Point and figure charts do not have a time dimension on the horizontal axis.
The price increases and decreases are recorded irrespective of their time dimension.
Point and figure chartists look for trend and congestion areas.
Identify patterns (or successions) of large increases and decreases in prices.
Graph collections of increases (X) and decreases (O) in prices.
Identify so called penetration points (buy and sell signals).
19 / 39
MOD004491 Corporate FinanceBehavioural Finance and Technical Analysis
Sell signals are generated when the stock price penetrates previous lows.
Buy signals occur when previous high prices are penetrated.
A congestion area is a horizontal band of Xs and Os created by several price reversals.
These regions correspond to support and resistance levels.
21 / 39
MOD004491 Corporate FinanceBehavioural Finance and Technical Analysis
Moving average
Average price over some historical period (i.e. a given interval of time, e.g. 5 weeks).
You can then plot these averages (over a fixed interval) forming the moving average.
A 50 day MA means all of the averages calculated using a window of 50 trading days.
When the current price crosses the average, a trading signal occurs:
(i) Bullish signal when the current price rises above the moving average;
(ii) Bearish signal when the current price falls below the moving average.
23 / 39
MOD004491 Corporate FinanceBehavioural Finance and Technical Analysis
24 / 39
MOD004491 Corporate FinanceBehavioural Finance and Technical Analysis
Bollinger bands are nothing more than a variation of MA plot. The difference is that
with BB, in addition to the MA, the chartist also plots the standard deviation of
the moving average.
When the current price crosses these bands, a trading signal occurs:
(i) Bullish signal when the current price rises below the lower bound of the band;
(ii) Bearish signal when the current price falls from the upper bound of the band.
25 / 39
MOD004491 Corporate FinanceBehavioural Finance and Technical Analysis
26 / 39
MOD004491 Corporate FinanceBehavioural Finance and Technical Analysis
Breadth
Breadth is the extent to which movements in a broad market indexes are reflected
widely in the movements of individual stock prices.
Most common measure: spread between the number of stocks that advance (advancing
stocks) and decline (declining stocks) in price.
If advances outnumber declines by a wide margin, then the market is viewed as being
stronger.
These breadth numbers are reported daily in the financial press.
Some analysts cumulate breadth data each day.
Cumulative breadth is obtained by adding that days net advances (or declines) to the
previous days total.
The direction of the cumulated series is then used to discern broad market trends.
27 / 39
MOD004491 Corporate FinanceBehavioural Finance and Technical Analysis
Breadth (cont...)
28 / 39
MOD004491 Corporate FinanceBehavioural Finance and Technical Analysis
Relative strength
29 / 39
MOD004491 Corporate FinanceBehavioural Finance and Technical Analysis
30 / 39
MOD004491 Corporate FinanceBehavioural Finance and Technical Analysis
The Trin Statistics (Arms index) is the ratio of the average volume in declining issues
to the average volume in advancing issues.
Volume declining/number declining
It is given as: TS = .
Volume advancing/number advancing
If the TS > 1, a bearish (pessimistic) signal occurs.
If the TS < 1, a bullish (optimistic) signal occurs.
The Wall Street Journal publishes TS every day.
Lets see what happens today with TS.
31 / 39
MOD004491 Corporate FinanceBehavioural Finance and Technical Analysis
University of Michigan develops and maintains consumer sentiment index for the US.
It is constructed using surveys sent out on a regular basis (e.g. monthly) to assess
consumers expectations about the future (or near future spending) conditioned on the
current economy.
The index (along with other indexes) is then used to gauge the future outlook of the
market.
32 / 39
MOD004491 Corporate FinanceBehavioural Finance and Technical Analysis
Short interest
34 / 39
MOD004491 Corporate FinanceBehavioural Finance and Technical Analysis
Investors leave balances in brokerage accounts when they plan to invest in the future.
When levels are high, a bullish sign for the market awaits...
35 / 39
MOD004491 Corporate FinanceBehavioural Finance and Technical Analysis
36 / 39
MOD004491 Corporate FinanceBehavioural Finance and Technical Analysis
37 / 39
MOD004491 Corporate FinanceBehavioural Finance and Technical Analysis
Most of technical analysis is based on the idea that are totally at odds with EMH.
So, if you believe in EMH, you will dismiss technical analysis as irrelevant.
However, if you believe in behavioural finance, you will recognise that TA has merit,
especially in trying to measure sentiment.
The ultimate choice about which view to support is yours.
38 / 39
MOD004491 Corporate FinanceBehavioural Finance and Technical Analysis
Summary
39 / 39