1.

First Model Built:

Model built according to PowerPoint slide.

Output shown is as expected for Model 1, with the volume of water in the lake reaching 0 just
before the year 2030. Shown in both table and graph form.

2. Non-negative option was turned off, and the model was run again.
 As the table and the graph show, the other out flow is reduced
to 0 KAF/year when the lake water volume reaches 0 KAF, and
the evaporation flow is reduced from 146.3 KAF/year to 123.7
KAF/year. This equates the new total outflow (123.7 KAF/year)
with the total inflow (other in + flow past diversion points +
precipitation = 47.6 KAF/year + 50 KAF/year + 26.1 KAF/year =
123.7 KAF/year) so that the volume of water in the lake stays at
0 KAF.

3. Model 3 from the PowerPoint was built and verified (really an

extension of Model 1)
Results match expected values from the PowerPoint. I went ahead and ran the model until 2090
because this was how far the graph in the PowerPoint went.
4. Model was run with exports decreased to 0 KAF/year beginning at year 2000. Results are
shown below.
The rapid response (in year 2000) allows the lake to recover from initial drainage, allowing the
lake to quickly reach the optimal elevation of 6,392 ft above sea level
(http://www.monolake.org/about/stats) by the year 2027. This is a significant improvement on
the original graph in the PowerPoint, in which export is only cut to 0 KAF/year in 2040, and the
lake takes until 2090 to return to its original elevation, which is still below the optimal elevation.

5. The model was adjusted to reflect the policy that determines how much export is allowed
based on the elevation of the lake. Export is a graphical function of lake elevation.
I went ahead and ran the model all the way through 2020 just to see the lake eventually reach
equilibrium at an elevation of 6,384 ft above sea level, with an export of 36.9 KAF/year.
Because the elevation is initially 6,374 ft above sea level, there is no export, which allows the
elevation to rise, because net inflows to the lake exceed net outflows. When the elevation of the
lake rises to 6,380 ft above sea level, exports are allowed based on the elevation. The model
maximizes the exports while keeping the elevation of the lake steady, which results in the
equilibrium values of the elevation and exports.