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171 167 168 170 170
Accidents
157 154
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100
50
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0
82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Calendar Year
Federal Aviation 2 2
Administration
U.S. Registered Rotorcraft Accidents
Focus on 10 Year History: 2001-2010
250
200 205
190 185
175 170 170
141 149
150
154
Accidents
134
100
50
38 35
28 32 28
25 24 25 24 19
0
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Calendar Year
Federal Aviation 3 3
Administration
Progressing from accident totals to
accident rates requires flight hours.
Federal Aviation 4 4
Administration
U.S. Registered Rotorcraft Accidents
Estimated Accident Rates: 2001-2010
12.00
10.00 10.13
9.60
8.00 8.14
6.71
Accidents
6.00 6.05
5.24
4.96
4.47 4.38
4.00 3.94
2.00
1.78
1.30 1.33 1.26 1.09
0.79 0.73 0.74 0.63 0.82
0.00
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Calendar Year
Accidents Rate per 100,000 Hours Fatal Accident Rate Per 100,000 Hours
Federal Aviation 5 5
Administration
U.S. Registered Rotorcraft Accidents
Estimated Accident Rates: 2001-2010
12.00
Start of IHST initiative and goal to
reduce accident rate 80% in 10 years
10.00 10.13
9.60
centered
6.00 6.05
5.24
4.96
4.47 4.38
4.00 3.94
IHST’s goal is a rate of 1.8 by 2016.
*
2.00
1.78
1.30 1.33 1.26 1.09
0.79 0.73 0.74 0.63 0.82
0.00
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Calendar Year
Accidents Rate per 100,000 Hours Fatal Accident Rate Per 100,000 Hours
Federal Aviation 6 6
Administration
What are the usual environmental
conditions for rotorcraft accidents?
Federal Aviation 7 7
Administration
What industry sectors result in the
most rotorcraft accidents?
Helicopter EMS?
Federal Aviation 8 8
Administration
What industry sectors result in the
most rotorcraft accidents?
Helicopter EMS?
Air Tour?
Federal Aviation 9 9
Administration
What industry sectors result in the
most rotorcraft accidents?
Helicopter EMS?
Air Tour?
Offshore?
Federal Aviation 10 10
Administration
What industry sectors result in the
most rotorcraft accidents?
Helicopter EMS?
Air Tour?
Offshore?
Federal Aviation 11 11
Administration
Rotorcraft Accidents by NTSB Classification
10 Years from CY01 to CY10 – 1,672 Accidents
6 Other Categories
6 Other Categories1.5%
1.5% External Load
External 1.9%
Load 1.9%
Aerial Observation
Aerial3.3%
Observation 3.3%
Flight Test 1.4%
Flight Test 1.4%
Business 4.7%
Business 4.7%
Positioning 4.9%
Instruction/Training
Instruction/Training Positioning 4.9%
21.7% 21.7%
EMS 7.8%
EMS 7.8%
Personal/Private
Personal/Private 20.0%
20.0%
Public Use 7.8%
Public Use 7.8%
Aerial Application
Aerial8.2%
Application 8.2%
Not Categorized
Not Categorized9.3%
9.3%
Federal Aviation 12 12
Administration
IHST’s Analysis of U.S. Accidents
CYs 2000, 2001, 2006 – 523 accidents
Electronic New s
Electronic News
Personal/Private 18.5%
Personal/Private 18.5%
Gathering 1.7%
Gathering 1.7% Utilities
Utilities
Patrol/Construction
Patrol/Construction 2.1%
2.1%
External Load 2.7%
External Load 2.7%
Logging
Logging 2.7% 2.7%
Instruction/Training Firefighting
Firefighting 3.6% 3.6%
Instructional/Training
17.6% 17.6%
Offshore
Offshore 4.2%4.2%
Aerial Observation
Aerial Observation 4.2% 4.2%
Federal Aviation 13 13
Administration
2011 Analysis of U.S. Accidents
Firefighting 0.8% Offshore 0.8%
Offshore 0.8%
Firefighting 0.8%
Personal/Private 27.6%
Business 1.6%
Business 1.6%
Personal/Private 27.6%
Air Tour / Sightseeing
Air Tour1.6%
/ Sightseeing 1.6%
Utilities
Utilities
Patrol/Construction
Patrol/Construction 2.4%
2.4%
External Load 2.4%
External Load 2.4%
Law Enforcem ent 3.1%
Law Enforcement 3.1%
Aerial Observation 4.7%
Aerial Observation 4.7%
Instruction/Training
Instructional/Training
18.9% 18.9% Emergency
Em ergency MedicalMedical
Services 6.3%
Services 6.3%
Commercial 11.0%
Com m ercial 11.0%
Federal Aviation 14 14
Administration
Hopefully the last few slides left you with a
better impression than this…
25%
22% 22%
21%
20% 20% 20% 20% 20%
19% 19%
18%
15%
10%
6% 6%
5%
4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4%
3%
0%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Federal Aviation 16 16
Administration
Instruction/Training
Accidents Compared to Flight Hours
U.S. Instructional/Training Helicopter Accidents and Flight Hours
35%
31%
30%
25%
24% 24% 24%
21% 21%
20% 20%
18% 18% 17%
15% 16% 16% 16% 16%
13%
11% 12%
10% 9% 10%
5%
0%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Federal Aviation 17 17
Administration
Aerial Application
Accidents Compared to Flight Hours
U.S. Aerial Application Helicopter Accidents and Flight Hours
20%
18% 18%
16%
14%
12%
10% 10%
9%
8% 8% 8% 8% 8%
7% 7% 7%
6%
5% 5% 5%
4% 4% 4% 4% 4%
3%
2%
0%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Federal Aviation 18 18
Administration
HEMS
Accidents Compared to Flight Hours
U.S. EMS Helicopter Accidents and Flight Hours
18%
16% 16%
15% 15%
14% 14% 14% 14%
13%
12% 12%
10% 10% 10%
9% 9% 9%
8% 8% 8% 8% 8%
7%
6% 6% 6%
4%
2%
0%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Federal Aviation 19 19
Administration
Accident rate comparison
Federal Aviation 20 20
Administration
Accident rate comparison
Federal Aviation 21 21
Administration
Another approach to examining
rotorcraft accident trends:
Cro Amsaa
Federal Aviation 22 22
Administration
Cro Amsaa?
…is not this (Cro Magnon).
Federal Aviation 23 23
Administration
Cro Amsaa
…is not this (Cro Magnon).
…but is this!
Federal Aviation 24 24
Administration
Cro Amsaa Analysis
Federal Aviation 25 25
Administration
Cro Amsaa Analysis
The value of Beta tells a story about the safety of our system
If Beta = 1: safety of the system is not changing
If Beta > 1: failures occurring faster
If Beta < 1: failures occurring slower
All Accidents CY 01 - 10
All Accidents CY 01 - 05
All Accidents CY 06 - 10
Federal Aviation 26 26
Administration
Cro Amsaa Analysis
Bottom line:
Overall, the safety of our system got slightly better from 2001 to 2010.
Comparatively,
2001 to 2005: system safety was stagnant to slightly deteriorating
2006 to 2010: system safety was improving
All Accidents CY 01 - 10
All Accidents CY 01 - 05
All Accidents CY 06 - 10
Federal Aviation 27 27
Administration
Cro Amsaa – All Rotorcraft Accidents
All Accidents CY 01 - 10
All Accidents CY 01 - 05
All Accidents CY 06 - 10
Federal Aviation 28 28
Administration
Cro Amsaa - Only Personal/Private
Personal/Private Accidents CY 01 - 10
Personal/Private Accidents CY 01 - 05
Personal/Private Accidents CY 06 - 10
Federal Aviation 29 29
Administration
Cro Amsaa - Only Personal/Private
Federal Aviation 30 30
Administration
Cro Amsaa - Only Personal/Private
Personal/Private Accidents CY 01 –
10c
Personal/Private Accidents CY 01 - 05
Personal/Private Accidents CY 06 - 10
Federal Aviation 31 31
Administration
Cro Amsaa - Only Personal/Private
The Personal/Private MTBF did improve by 2.5 days from 2006 to 2010 as
compared to 2001 to 2005.
But the MTBFs don’t
compare favorably to
other industry sectors,
e.g. HEMS.
Federal Aviation 32 32
Administration
Gathering data on U.S. rotorcraft can be
difficult, but we’re not so desperate that
we’ve resorted to this technique yet.
Federal Aviation 33 33
Administration
What do we know about
Personal/Private rotorcraft accidents?
Federal Aviation 34 34
Administration
Personal/Private Accidents:
Occurrence Categories tell “What happened?”
Note: During the IHST analysis, each accident could be placed in multiple occurrence
categories, so the percentages shown are not intended to sum to 100%.
Autorotation 27%
Federal Aviation 35 35
Administration
Personal/Private Accidents:
More about “Loss of Control”
Federal Aviation 36 36
Administration
Personal/Private Accidents:
Problem Statements tell “Why did it happen?”
Note: During the IHST analysis, each accident could be assigned multiple problem
statements, so the percentages shown are not intended to sum to 100%.
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Percentage of Personal/Private Accidents (97 accidents)
Federal Aviation 37 37
Administration
Personal/Private Accidents:
Problem Statements tell “Why did it happen?”
Note: During the IHST analysis, each accident could be assigned multiple problem
statements, so the percentages shown are not intended to sum to 100%.
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Percentage of Personal/Private Accidents (97 accidents)
Federal Aviation 38 38
Administration
Personal/Private Accidents:
Further details for selected problem statements
Federal Aviation 39 39
Administration
Personal/Private Accidents:
Intervention Recommendations tell “How it
could have been prevented”
Note: During the IHST analysis, each accident could be assigned multiple intervention
recommendations, so percentages aren't intended to sum to 100%.
Training/Instructional 87%
Regulatory 29%
Maintenance 20%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Percentage of Personal/Private Accidents (97 Accidents)
Federal Aviation 40 40
Administration
Personal/Private Accidents:
Intervention Recommendations tell “How it
could have been prevented”
Note: During the IHST analysis, each accident could be assigned multiple intervention
recommendations, so percentages aren't intended to sum to 100%.
Training/Instructional 87%
Regulatory
and Equipment 29%
recommendations.
Maintenance 20%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Percentage of Personal/Private Accidents (97 Accidents)
Federal Aviation 41 41
Administration
Personal/Private Accidents:
A closer look at the top “Systems and
Equipment” intervention recommendations
• Cockpit Indication/Warning
– Automate carburetor anti-ice function or early warning alert
– Fuel system status
Federal Aviation 42 42
Administration
The first recorded incident of a pilot
choosing to ignore statistical data at
the risk of his crew and passengers
happened a long time ago…
Federal Aviation 43 43
Administration
…in a galaxy far, far away.
But sir, the possibility
of successfully
navigating an asteroid
field is approximately
3,720 to 1!!
Federal Aviation 44 44
Administration
What do we know about
Instructional/Training Accidents?
• Second highest number of accidents of any
industry sector studied by the IHST’s review
of U.S. helicopter accidents
Federal Aviation 45 45
Administration
Instructional/Training Accidents:
Occurrence Categories tell “What happened?”
Note: During the IHST analysis, each accident could be placed in multiple occurrence
categories, so the percentages shown are not intended to sum to 100%.
Autorotation 54%
Landing Zone 9%
Federal Aviation 46 46
Administration
Instructional/Training Accidents:
More about “Loss of Control”
Federal Aviation 47 47
Administration
Instructional/Training Accidents:
Problem Statements tell “Why did it happen?”
Note: During the IHST analysis, each accident could be assigned multiple problem
statements, so the percentage shown are not intended to sum to 100%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Percentage of Instructional/Training Accidents (92 accidents)
Federal Aviation 48 48
Administration
Instructional/Training Accidents:
Problem Statements tell “Why did it happen?”
Note: During the IHST analysis, each accident could be assigned multiple problem
statements, so the percentage shown are not intended to sum to 100%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Percentage of Instructional/Training Accidents (92 accidents)
Federal Aviation 49 49
Administration
Instructional/Training Accidents:
Further details for selected problem statements
Federal Aviation 50 50
Administration
Instructional/Training Accidents:
Intervention Recommendations tell “How it
could have been prevented”
Note: During the IHST analysis, each accident could be assigned multiple intervention
recommendations, so percentages aren't intended to sum to 100%
Training/Instructional 92%
Maintenance 8%
Regulatory 8%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Percentage of Instructional/Training Accidents (92 Accidents)
Federal Aviation 51 51
Administration
Instructional/Training Accidents:
Intervention Recommendations tell “How it
could have been prevented”
Note: During the IHST analysis, each accident could be assigned multiple intervention
recommendations, so percentages aren't intended to sum to 100%
Training/Instructional 92%
Regulatory 8%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Percentage of Instructional/Training Accidents (92 Accidents)
Federal Aviation 52 52
Administration
Instructional/Training Accidents:
A closer look at the top “Systems and
Equipment” intervention recommendations
• Cockpit Warning/Indication
– Install low rotor warning
– Provide power available versus power required indicator
– Low airspeed indicator warning
Federal Aviation 53 53
Administration
The IHST study of U.S. rotorcraft
accidents went quite a bit deeper than
this.
Federal Aviation 54 54
Administration
What do we know about Aerial
Application Accidents?
• Third highest number of accidents of any industry
sector studied by the IHST’s review of U.S.
helicopter accidents.
Federal Aviation 55 55
Administration
Percentage of Aerial Application
Helicopter Accidents – Last 5 Years
20%
19%
18% 18%
16%
14%
12%
10% 10%
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
2%
0%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Federal Aviation 56 56
Administration
Percentage of Aerial Application
Helicopter Accidents – Last 5 Years
Percentages the last 2 years are comparable to
Personal/Private. Also, like Personal/Private, the
20% flight hour exposure level is relatively low.
19%
18% 18%
16%
14%
12%
10% 10%
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
2%
0%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Federal Aviation 57 57
Administration
Knowing when U.S. Aerial Application
rotorcraft accidents are more likely to
occur does not require much
guessing…
Federal Aviation 58 58
Administration
Aerial Application Accidents by Month:
10 years from 2001-2010
35%
30% 30%
25%
20%
15% 15%
10% 10% 10% 11%
5% 4% 4% 4%
3% 4% 3%
1%
0%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Federal Aviation 59 59
Administration
Aerial Application Accidents by Month:
10 years from 2001-2010
76% of accidents during 6
month peak U.S. growing
35% season of May - Sep
30% 30%
25%
20%
15% 15%
10% 10% 10% 11%
5% 4% 4% 4%
3% 4% 3%
1%
0%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Federal Aviation 60 60
Administration
Future challenges – what to do now?
• Personal/Private, Instructional/Training, and Aerial
Application pose unique problems
Federal Aviation 61 61
Administration
The goals set by the rotorcraft community for
reductions in U.S. rotorcraft accidents will
require no higher than single digit annual
accident totals in each industry sector of
Personal/Private, Instructional/Training, and
Aerial Application.
Federal Aviation 62 62
Administration
The goals set by the rotorcraft community for
reductions in U.S. rotorcraft accidents will
require no higher than single digit annual
accident totals in each industry sector of
Personal/Private, Instructional/Training, and
Aerial Application.
This is where we stood at the end of 2011:
Personal/Private: 35 accidents
Instructional/Training: 24 accidents
Aerial Application: 24 accidents
Federal Aviation 64 64
Administration
Difficult problems sometimes lead to
a new level of cooperation and
innovation to find a solution….
Federal Aviation 65 65
Administration
If you found the portions of this
presentation that referenced the work
by the IHST useful, please go to the
following address for more
information, including detailed
analysis reports:
www.ihst.org
Federal Aviation 66 66
Administration
Questions?
Federal Aviation 67 67
Administration