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The efficacy of the predictive nature of these cycles is controversial and some of
these cycles have been quantitatively examined for statistical significance.
Contents [hide]
1 Short term and longer term cycles
2 Compound cycles
3 Dynamic cycles
4 Use of multiple screens
5 Publications
6 See also
7 References
8 External links
Short term and longer term cycles[edit]
Cyclical cycles generally last 4 years, with bull and bear market phases lasting
1�3 years, while Secular cycles last about 30 years with bull and bear market
phases lasting 10�20 years. It is generally accepted[citation needed] that in early
2011 the US stock market is in a cyclical bull phase as it has been moving up for a
number of years. It is also generally accepted[citation needed] that it is in a
secular bear phase as it has been stagnant since the stock market peak in 2000. The
longer term Kondratiev cycles are two Secular cycles in length and last roughly 60
years. The end of the Kondratiev cycle is accompanied by economic troubles, such as
the original Great Depression of the 1870s, the Great Depression of the 1930s and
the current Great Recession.
Compound cycles[edit]
The presence of multiple cycles of different periods and magnitudes in conjunction
with linear trends, can give rise to complex patterns, that are mathematically
generated through Fourier analysis.
In order for an investor to more easily visualise a longer term cycle (or a trend),
he sometimes will superimpose a shorter term cycle such as a moving average on top
of it.
A common view of a stock market pattern is one that involves a specific time-frame
(for example a 6-month chart with daily price intervals). In this kind of a chart
one may create and observe any of the following trends or trend relationships:
Dynamic cycles[edit]
Real cyclic motions are not perfectly even; the period varies slightly from one
cycle to the next because of changing physical environmental factors. This dynamic
behavior is also valid for financial market cycles. It requires an awareness of the
active dominant cycle parameter and requires the ability to verify and track the
real current status and dynamic variations that facilitate projection of the next
significant event. Cycles morph over time because of the nature of inner parameters
of length and phase. Active Dominant Cycles in financial markets do not abruptly
jump from one length (e.g., 50) to another (e.g., 120). Typically, one dominant
cycle will remain active for a longer period and vary around the core parameters.
The �genes� of the cycle in terms of length, phase, and amplitude are not fixed and
will morph around the dominant mean parameters.
Steve Puetz calles this "Period variability": �Period variability � Many natural
cycles exhibit considerable variation between repetitions. For instance, the
sunspot cycle has an average period of ~10.75-yr. However, over the past 300 years,
individual cycles varied from 9-yr to 14-yr. Many other natural cycles exhibit
similar variation around mean periods.�[9][10]
These periodic motions abound both in nature and the man-made world. Examples
include a heartbeat or the cyclic movements of planets. Although many real motions
are intrinsically repeated, few are perfectly periodic. For example, a walker�s
stride frequency may vary, and a heart may beat slower or faster. Once an
individual is in a dominant state, the heartbeat cycle will stabilize at an
approximate rate of 85 bpm. However, the exact cycle will not stay static at 85 bpm
but will vary +/- 10%. The variance is not considered a new heartbeat cycle.
To arrive at more reliable and robust information on the dominant cycle for
financial markets, the following steps should be performed:[11]
Step 1: A cycle detection algorithm should have a dynamic filter for detrending,
which is included for pre-processing. This ensures that the data is not affected by
trending information.
Step 2: Subsequently, a cycles engine performs a spectral analysis based on an
optimized Discrete Fourier Transform and then isolates those cycles that are
repetitive and have the largest amplitudes. Research results have shown that an
adapted Goertzel algorithm is most suitable when it comes to detecting cycles in
financial time series.
Step 3: In a third step, the statistic reliability of each cycle is evaluated. The
goal of this procedure is to exclude cycles that have been influenced by one-time
random events (e.g. news).
One of the algorithms used for this is a more sophisticated Bartels Test. The test
builds on detailed mathematics (statistics) which measures the stability of the
amplitude and phase of each cycle. Bartels� statistical test for periodicity,
published at the Carnegie Institution of Washington in 1932, was embraced by the
Foundation for the Study of Cycles decades ago as the best single test for a given
cycle's projected reliability, robustness, and consequently, usefulness. The method
provides a direct measurement of the likelihood that a given cycle is genuine. The
higher the Bartels score is (above 70%, up to 100%), the higher the likelihood that
the cycle is genuine and has not been influenced by one-time events.[12]
Often expert traders will emphasize the use of multiple time frames for successful
trading. For example, Alexander Elder suggests a Triple Screen approach.[13][14]
Search Wikipedia
Go
Main page
Contents
Featured content
Current events
Random article
Donate to Wikipedia
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Interaction
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About Wikipedia
Community portal
Recent changes
Contact page
Tools
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Related changes
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This page was last edited on 15 October 2017, at 14:17.
Text is available under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License;
additional terms may apply. By using this site, you agree to the Terms of Use and
Privacy Policy. Wikipedia� is a registered trademark of the Wikimedia Foundation,
Inc., a non-profit organization.
Privacy policyAbout WikipediaDisclaimersContact WikipediaDevelopersCookie
statementMobile viewEnable previews
Wikimedia Foundation Powered by MediaWiki
The efficacy of the predictive nature of these cycles is controversial and some of
these cycles have been quantitatively examined for statistical significance.
Contents [hide]
1 Short term and longer term cycles
2 Compound cycles
3 Dynamic cycles
4 Use of multiple screens
5 Publications
6 See also
7 References
8 External links
Short term and longer term cycles[edit]
Cyclical cycles generally last 4 years, with bull and bear market phases lasting
1�3 years, while Secular cycles last about 30 years with bull and bear market
phases lasting 10�20 years. It is generally accepted[citation needed] that in early
2011 the US stock market is in a cyclical bull phase as it has been moving up for a
number of years. It is also generally accepted[citation needed] that it is in a
secular bear phase as it has been stagnant since the stock market peak in 2000. The
longer term Kondratiev cycles are two Secular cycles in length and last roughly 60
years. The end of the Kondratiev cycle is accompanied by economic troubles, such as
the original Great Depression of the 1870s, the Great Depression of the 1930s and
the current Great Recession.
Compound cycles[edit]
The presence of multiple cycles of different periods and magnitudes in conjunction
with linear trends, can give rise to complex patterns, that are mathematically
generated through Fourier analysis.
In order for an investor to more easily visualise a longer term cycle (or a trend),
he sometimes will superimpose a shorter term cycle such as a moving average on top
of it.
A common view of a stock market pattern is one that involves a specific time-frame
(for example a 6-month chart with daily price intervals). In this kind of a chart
one may create and observe any of the following trends or trend relationships:
Dynamic cycles[edit]
Real cyclic motions are not perfectly even; the period varies slightly from one
cycle to the next because of changing physical environmental factors. This dynamic
behavior is also valid for financial market cycles. It requires an awareness of the
active dominant cycle parameter and requires the ability to verify and track the
real current status and dynamic variations that facilitate projection of the next
significant event. Cycles morph over time because of the nature of inner parameters
of length and phase. Active Dominant Cycles in financial markets do not abruptly
jump from one length (e.g., 50) to another (e.g., 120). Typically, one dominant
cycle will remain active for a longer period and vary around the core parameters.
The �genes� of the cycle in terms of length, phase, and amplitude are not fixed and
will morph around the dominant mean parameters.
Steve Puetz calles this "Period variability": �Period variability � Many natural
cycles exhibit considerable variation between repetitions. For instance, the
sunspot cycle has an average period of ~10.75-yr. However, over the past 300 years,
individual cycles varied from 9-yr to 14-yr. Many other natural cycles exhibit
similar variation around mean periods.�[9][10]
These periodic motions abound both in nature and the man-made world. Examples
include a heartbeat or the cyclic movements of planets. Although many real motions
are intrinsically repeated, few are perfectly periodic. For example, a walker�s
stride frequency may vary, and a heart may beat slower or faster. Once an
individual is in a dominant state, the heartbeat cycle will stabilize at an
approximate rate of 85 bpm. However, the exact cycle will not stay static at 85 bpm
but will vary +/- 10%. The variance is not considered a new heartbeat cycle.
To arrive at more reliable and robust information on the dominant cycle for
financial markets, the following steps should be performed:[11]
Step 1: A cycle detection algorithm should have a dynamic filter for detrending,
which is included for pre-processing. This ensures that the data is not affected by
trending information.
Step 2: Subsequently, a cycles engine performs a spectral analysis based on an
optimized Discrete Fourier Transform and then isolates those cycles that are
repetitive and have the largest amplitudes. Research results have shown that an
adapted Goertzel algorithm is most suitable when it comes to detecting cycles in
financial time series.
Step 3: In a third step, the statistic reliability of each cycle is evaluated. The
goal of this procedure is to exclude cycles that have been influenced by one-time
random events (e.g. news).
One of the algorithms used for this is a more sophisticated Bartels Test. The test
builds on detailed mathematics (statistics) which measures the stability of the
amplitude and phase of each cycle. Bartels� statistical test for periodicity,
published at the Carnegie Institution of Washington in 1932, was embraced by the
Foundation for the Study of Cycles decades ago as the best single test for a given
cycle's projected reliability, robustness, and consequently, usefulness. The method
provides a direct measurement of the likelihood that a given cycle is genuine. The
higher the Bartels score is (above 70%, up to 100%), the higher the likelihood that
the cycle is genuine and has not been influenced by one-time events.[12]
Often expert traders will emphasize the use of multiple time frames for successful
trading. For example, Alexander Elder suggests a Triple Screen approach.[13][14]
Search Wikipedia
Go
Main page
Contents
Featured content
Current events
Random article
Donate to Wikipedia
Wikipedia store
Interaction
Help
About Wikipedia
Community portal
Recent changes
Contact page
Tools
What links here
Related changes
Upload file
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This page was last edited on 15 October 2017, at 14:17.
Text is available under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License;
additional terms may apply. By using this site, you agree to the Terms of Use and
Privacy Policy. Wikipedia� is a registered trademark of the Wikimedia Foundation,
Inc., a non-profit organization.
Privacy policyAbout WikipediaDisclaimersContact WikipediaDevelopersCookie
statementMobile viewEnable previews
Wikimedia Foundation Powered by MediaWiki
The efficacy of the predictive nature of these cycles is controversial and some of
these cycles have been quantitatively examined for statistical significance.
Contents [hide]
1 Short term and longer term cycles
2 Compound cycles
3 Dynamic cycles
4 Use of multiple screens
5 Publications
6 See also
7 References
8 External links
Short term and longer term cycles[edit]
Cyclical cycles generally last 4 years, with bull and bear market phases lasting
1�3 years, while Secular cycles last about 30 years with bull and bear market
phases lasting 10�20 years. It is generally accepted[citation needed] that in early
2011 the US stock market is in a cyclical bull phase as it has been moving up for a
number of years. It is also generally accepted[citation needed] that it is in a
secular bear phase as it has been stagnant since the stock market peak in 2000. The
longer term Kondratiev cycles are two Secular cycles in length and last roughly 60
years. The end of the Kondratiev cycle is accompanied by economic troubles, such as
the original Great Depression of the 1870s, the Great Depression of the 1930s and
the current Great Recession.
Compound cycles[edit]
The presence of multiple cycles of different periods and magnitudes in conjunction
with linear trends, can give rise to complex patterns, that are mathematically
generated through Fourier analysis.
In order for an investor to more easily visualise a longer term cycle (or a trend),
he sometimes will superimpose a shorter term cycle such as a moving average on top
of it.
A common view of a stock market pattern is one that involves a specific time-frame
(for example a 6-month chart with daily price intervals). In this kind of a chart
one may create and observe any of the following trends or trend relationships:
Dynamic cycles[edit]
Real cyclic motions are not perfectly even; the period varies slightly from one
cycle to the next because of changing physical environmental factors. This dynamic
behavior is also valid for financial market cycles. It requires an awareness of the
active dominant cycle parameter and requires the ability to verify and track the
real current status and dynamic variations that facilitate projection of the next
significant event. Cycles morph over time because of the nature of inner parameters
of length and phase. Active Dominant Cycles in financial markets do not abruptly
jump from one length (e.g., 50) to another (e.g., 120). Typically, one dominant
cycle will remain active for a longer period and vary around the core parameters.
The �genes� of the cycle in terms of length, phase, and amplitude are not fixed and
will morph around the dominant mean parameters.
Steve Puetz calles this "Period variability": �Period variability � Many natural
cycles exhibit considerable variation between repetitions. For instance, the
sunspot cycle has an average period of ~10.75-yr. However, over the past 300 years,
individual cycles varied from 9-yr to 14-yr. Many other natural cycles exhibit
similar variation around mean periods.�[9][10]
These periodic motions abound both in nature and the man-made world. Examples
include a heartbeat or the cyclic movements of planets. Although many real motions
are intrinsically repeated, few are perfectly periodic. For example, a walker�s
stride frequency may vary, and a heart may beat slower or faster. Once an
individual is in a dominant state, the heartbeat cycle will stabilize at an
approximate rate of 85 bpm. However, the exact cycle will not stay static at 85 bpm
but will vary +/- 10%. The variance is not considered a new heartbeat cycle.
To arrive at more reliable and robust information on the dominant cycle for
financial markets, the following steps should be performed:[11]
Step 1: A cycle detection algorithm should have a dynamic filter for detrending,
which is included for pre-processing. This ensures that the data is not affected by
trending information.
Step 2: Subsequently, a cycles engine performs a spectral analysis based on an
optimized Discrete Fourier Transform and then isolates those cycles that are
repetitive and have the largest amplitudes. Research results have shown that an
adapted Goertzel algorithm is most suitable when it comes to detecting cycles in
financial time series.
Step 3: In a third step, the statistic reliability of each cycle is evaluated. The
goal of this procedure is to exclude cycles that have been influenced by one-time
random events (e.g. news).
One of the algorithms used for this is a more sophisticated Bartels Test. The test
builds on detailed mathematics (statistics) which measures the stability of the
amplitude and phase of each cycle. Bartels� statistical test for periodicity,
published at the Carnegie Institution of Washington in 1932, was embraced by the
Foundation for the Study of Cycles decades ago as the best single test for a given
cycle's projected reliability, robustness, and consequently, usefulness. The method
provides a direct measurement of the likelihood that a given cycle is genuine. The
higher the Bartels score is (above 70%, up to 100%), the higher the likelihood that
the cycle is genuine and has not been influenced by one-time events.[12]
Often expert traders will emphasize the use of multiple time frames for successful
trading. For example, Alexander Elder suggests a Triple Screen approach.[13][14]
Search Wikipedia
Go
Main page
Contents
Featured content
Current events
Random article
Donate to Wikipedia
Wikipedia store
Interaction
Help
About Wikipedia
Community portal
Recent changes
Contact page
Tools
What links here
Related changes
Upload file
Special pages
Permanent link
Page information
Wikidata item
Cite this page
Print/export
Create a book
Download as PDF
Printable version
Languages
Add links
This page was last edited on 15 October 2017, at 14:17.
Text is available under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License;
additional terms may apply. By using this site, you agree to the Terms of Use and
Privacy Policy. Wikipedia� is a registered trademark of the Wikimedia Foundation,
Inc., a non-profit organization.
Privacy policyAbout WikipediaDisclaimersContact WikipediaDevelopersCookie
statementMobile viewEnable previews
Wikimedia Foundation Powered by MediaWiki
The efficacy of the predictive nature of these cycles is controversial and some of
these cycles have been quantitatively examined for statistical significance.
Contents [hide]
1 Short term and longer term cycles
2 Compound cycles
3 Dynamic cycles
4 Use of multiple screens
5 Publications
6 See also
7 References
8 External links
Short term and longer term cycles[edit]
Cyclical cycles generally last 4 years, with bull and bear market phases lasting
1�3 years, while Secular cycles last about 30 years with bull and bear market
phases lasting 10�20 years. It is generally accepted[citation needed] that in early
2011 the US stock market is in a cyclical bull phase as it has been moving up for a
number of years. It is also generally accepted[citation needed] that it is in a
secular bear phase as it has been stagnant since the stock market peak in 2000. The
longer term Kondratiev cycles are two Secular cycles in length and last roughly 60
years. The end of the Kondratiev cycle is accompanied by economic troubles, such as
the original Great Depression of the 1870s, the Great Depression of the 1930s and
the current Great Recession.
Compound cycles[edit]
The presence of multiple cycles of different periods and magnitudes in conjunction
with linear trends, can give rise to complex patterns, that are mathematically
generated through Fourier analysis.
In order for an investor to more easily visualise a longer term cycle (or a trend),
he sometimes will superimpose a shorter term cycle such as a moving average on top
of it.
A common view of a stock market pattern is one that involves a specific time-frame
(for example a 6-month chart with daily price intervals). In this kind of a chart
one may create and observe any of the following trends or trend relationships:
Dynamic cycles[edit]
Real cyclic motions are not perfectly even; the period varies slightly from one
cycle to the next because of changing physical environmental factors. This dynamic
behavior is also valid for financial market cycles. It requires an awareness of the
active dominant cycle parameter and requires the ability to verify and track the
real current status and dynamic variations that facilitate projection of the next
significant event. Cycles morph over time because of the nature of inner parameters
of length and phase. Active Dominant Cycles in financial markets do not abruptly
jump from one length (e.g., 50) to another (e.g., 120). Typically, one dominant
cycle will remain active for a longer period and vary around the core parameters.
The �genes� of the cycle in terms of length, phase, and amplitude are not fixed and
will morph around the dominant mean parameters.
Steve Puetz calles this "Period variability": �Period variability � Many natural
cycles exhibit considerable variation between repetitions. For instance, the
sunspot cycle has an average period of ~10.75-yr. However, over the past 300 years,
individual cycles varied from 9-yr to 14-yr. Many other natural cycles exhibit
similar variation around mean periods.�[9][10]
These periodic motions abound both in nature and the man-made world. Examples
include a heartbeat or the cyclic movements of planets. Although many real motions
are intrinsically repeated, few are perfectly periodic. For example, a walker�s
stride frequency may vary, and a heart may beat slower or faster. Once an
individual is in a dominant state, the heartbeat cycle will stabilize at an
approximate rate of 85 bpm. However, the exact cycle will not stay static at 85 bpm
but will vary +/- 10%. The variance is not considered a new heartbeat cycle.
To arrive at more reliable and robust information on the dominant cycle for
financial markets, the following steps should be performed:[11]
Step 1: A cycle detection algorithm should have a dynamic filter for detrending,
which is included for pre-processing. This ensures that the data is not affected by
trending information.
Step 2: Subsequently, a cycles engine performs a spectral analysis based on an
optimized Discrete Fourier Transform and then isolates those cycles that are
repetitive and have the largest amplitudes. Research results have shown that an
adapted Goertzel algorithm is most suitable when it comes to detecting cycles in
financial time series.
Step 3: In a third step, the statistic reliability of each cycle is evaluated. The
goal of this procedure is to exclude cycles that have been influenced by one-time
random events (e.g. news).
One of the algorithms used for this is a more sophisticated Bartels Test. The test
builds on detailed mathematics (statistics) which measures the stability of the
amplitude and phase of each cycle. Bartels� statistical test for periodicity,
published at the Carnegie Institution of Washington in 1932, was embraced by the
Foundation for the Study of Cycles decades ago as the best single test for a given
cycle's projected reliability, robustness, and consequently, usefulness. The method
provides a direct measurement of the likelihood that a given cycle is genuine. The
higher the Bartels score is (above 70%, up to 100%), the higher the likelihood that
the cycle is genuine and has not been influenced by one-time events.[12]
Often expert traders will emphasize the use of multiple time frames for successful
trading. For example, Alexander Elder suggests a Triple Screen approach.[13][14]
Search Wikipedia
Go
Main page
Contents
Featured content
Current events
Random article
Donate to Wikipedia
Wikipedia store
Interaction
Help
About Wikipedia
Community portal
Recent changes
Contact page
Tools
What links here
Related changes
Upload file
Special pages
Permanent link
Page information
Wikidata item
Cite this page
Print/export
Create a book
Download as PDF
Printable version
Languages
Add links
This page was last edited on 15 October 2017, at 14:17.
Text is available under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License;
additional terms may apply. By using this site, you agree to the Terms of Use and
Privacy Policy. Wikipedia� is a registered trademark of the Wikimedia Foundation,
Inc., a non-profit organization.
Privacy policyAbout WikipediaDisclaimersContact WikipediaDevelopersCookie
statementMobile viewEnable previews
Wikimedia Foundation Powered by MediaWiki
The efficacy of the predictive nature of these cycles is controversial and some of
these cycles have been quantitatively examined for statistical significance.
Contents [hide]
1 Short term and longer term cycles
2 Compound cycles
3 Dynamic cycles
4 Use of multiple screens
5 Publications
6 See also
7 References
8 External links
Short term and longer term cycles[edit]
Cyclical cycles generally last 4 years, with bull and bear market phases lasting
1�3 years, while Secular cycles last about 30 years with bull and bear market
phases lasting 10�20 years. It is generally accepted[citation needed] that in early
2011 the US stock market is in a cyclical bull phase as it has been moving up for a
number of years. It is also generally accepted[citation needed] that it is in a
secular bear phase as it has been stagnant since the stock market peak in 2000. The
longer term Kondratiev cycles are two Secular cycles in length and last roughly 60
years. The end of the Kondratiev cycle is accompanied by economic troubles, such as
the original Great Depression of the 1870s, the Great Depression of the 1930s and
the current Great Recession.
Compound cycles[edit]
The presence of multiple cycles of different periods and magnitudes in conjunction
with linear trends, can give rise to complex patterns, that are mathematically
generated through Fourier analysis.
In order for an investor to more easily visualise a longer term cycle (or a trend),
he sometimes will superimpose a shorter term cycle such as a moving average on top
of it.
A common view of a stock market pattern is one that involves a specific time-frame
(for example a 6-month chart with daily price intervals). In this kind of a chart
one may create and observe any of the following trends or trend relationships:
Dynamic cycles[edit]
Real cyclic motions are not perfectly even; the period varies slightly from one
cycle to the next because of changing physical environmental factors. This dynamic
behavior is also valid for financial market cycles. It requires an awareness of the
active dominant cycle parameter and requires the ability to verify and track the
real current status and dynamic variations that facilitate projection of the next
significant event. Cycles morph over time because of the nature of inner parameters
of length and phase. Active Dominant Cycles in financial markets do not abruptly
jump from one length (e.g., 50) to another (e.g., 120). Typically, one dominant
cycle will remain active for a longer period and vary around the core parameters.
The �genes� of the cycle in terms of length, phase, and amplitude are not fixed and
will morph around the dominant mean parameters.
Steve Puetz calles this "Period variability": �Period variability � Many natural
cycles exhibit considerable variation between repetitions. For instance, the
sunspot cycle has an average period of ~10.75-yr. However, over the past 300 years,
individual cycles varied from 9-yr to 14-yr. Many other natural cycles exhibit
similar variation around mean periods.�[9][10]
These periodic motions abound both in nature and the man-made world. Examples
include a heartbeat or the cyclic movements of planets. Although many real motions
are intrinsically repeated, few are perfectly periodic. For example, a walker�s
stride frequency may vary, and a heart may beat slower or faster. Once an
individual is in a dominant state, the heartbeat cycle will stabilize at an
approximate rate of 85 bpm. However, the exact cycle will not stay static at 85 bpm
but will vary +/- 10%. The variance is not considered a new heartbeat cycle.
To arrive at more reliable and robust information on the dominant cycle for
financial markets, the following steps should be performed:[11]
Step 1: A cycle detection algorithm should have a dynamic filter for detrending,
which is included for pre-processing. This ensures that the data is not affected by
trending information.
Step 2: Subsequently, a cycles engine performs a spectral analysis based on an
optimized Discrete Fourier Transform and then isolates those cycles that are
repetitive and have the largest amplitudes. Research results have shown that an
adapted Goertzel algorithm is most suitable when it comes to detecting cycles in
financial time series.
Step 3: In a third step, the statistic reliability of each cycle is evaluated. The
goal of this procedure is to exclude cycles that have been influenced by one-time
random events (e.g. news).
One of the algorithms used for this is a more sophisticated Bartels Test. The test
builds on detailed mathematics (statistics) which measures the stability of the
amplitude and phase of each cycle. Bartels� statistical test for periodicity,
published at the Carnegie Institution of Washington in 1932, was embraced by the
Foundation for the Study of Cycles decades ago as the best single test for a given
cycle's projected reliability, robustness, and consequently, usefulness. The method
provides a direct measurement of the likelihood that a given cycle is genuine. The
higher the Bartels score is (above 70%, up to 100%), the higher the likelihood that
the cycle is genuine and has not been influenced by one-time events.[12]
Often expert traders will emphasize the use of multiple time frames for successful
trading. For example, Alexander Elder suggests a Triple Screen approach.[13][14]
Search Wikipedia
Go
Main page
Contents
Featured content
Current events
Random article
Donate to Wikipedia
Wikipedia store
Interaction
Help
About Wikipedia
Community portal
Recent changes
Contact page
Tools
What links here
Related changes
Upload file
Special pages
Permanent link
Page information
Wikidata item
Cite this page
Print/export
Create a book
Download as PDF
Printable version
Languages
Add links
This page was last edited on 15 October 2017, at 14:17.
Text is available under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License;
additional terms may apply. By using this site, you agree to the Terms of Use and
Privacy Policy. Wikipedia� is a registered trademark of the Wikimedia Foundation,
Inc., a non-profit organization.
Privacy policyAbout WikipediaDisclaimersContact WikipediaDevelopersCookie
statementMobile viewEnable previews
Wikimedia Foundation Powered by MediaWiki
The efficacy of the predictive nature of these cycles is controversial and some of
these cycles have been quantitatively examined for statistical significance.
Contents [hide]
1 Short term and longer term cycles
2 Compound cycles
3 Dynamic cycles
4 Use of multiple screens
5 Publications
6 See also
7 References
8 External links
Short term and longer term cycles[edit]
Cyclical cycles generally last 4 years, with bull and bear market phases lasting
1�3 years, while Secular cycles last about 30 years with bull and bear market
phases lasting 10�20 years. It is generally accepted[citation needed] that in early
2011 the US stock market is in a cyclical bull phase as it has been moving up for a
number of years. It is also generally accepted[citation needed] that it is in a
secular bear phase as it has been stagnant since the stock market peak in 2000. The
longer term Kondratiev cycles are two Secular cycles in length and last roughly 60
years. The end of the Kondratiev cycle is accompanied by economic troubles, such as
the original Great Depression of the 1870s, the Great Depression of the 1930s and
the current Great Recession.
Compound cycles[edit]
The presence of multiple cycles of different periods and magnitudes in conjunction
with linear trends, can give rise to complex patterns, that are mathematically
generated through Fourier analysis.
In order for an investor to more easily visualise a longer term cycle (or a trend),
he sometimes will superimpose a shorter term cycle such as a moving average on top
of it.
A common view of a stock market pattern is one that involves a specific time-frame
(for example a 6-month chart with daily price intervals). In this kind of a chart
one may create and observe any of the following trends or trend relationships:
Dynamic cycles[edit]
Real cyclic motions are not perfectly even; the period varies slightly from one
cycle to the next because of changing physical environmental factors. This dynamic
behavior is also valid for financial market cycles. It requires an awareness of the
active dominant cycle parameter and requires the ability to verify and track the
real current status and dynamic variations that facilitate projection of the next
significant event. Cycles morph over time because of the nature of inner parameters
of length and phase. Active Dominant Cycles in financial markets do not abruptly
jump from one length (e.g., 50) to another (e.g., 120). Typically, one dominant
cycle will remain active for a longer period and vary around the core parameters.
The �genes� of the cycle in terms of length, phase, and amplitude are not fixed and
will morph around the dominant mean parameters.
Steve Puetz calles this "Period variability": �Period variability � Many natural
cycles exhibit considerable variation between repetitions. For instance, the
sunspot cycle has an average period of ~10.75-yr. However, over the past 300 years,
individual cycles varied from 9-yr to 14-yr. Many other natural cycles exhibit
similar variation around mean periods.�[9][10]
These periodic motions abound both in nature and the man-made world. Examples
include a heartbeat or the cyclic movements of planets. Although many real motions
are intrinsically repeated, few are perfectly periodic. For example, a walker�s
stride frequency may vary, and a heart may beat slower or faster. Once an
individual is in a dominant state, the heartbeat cycle will stabilize at an
approximate rate of 85 bpm. However, the exact cycle will not stay static at 85 bpm
but will vary +/- 10%. The variance is not considered a new heartbeat cycle.
To arrive at more reliable and robust information on the dominant cycle for
financial markets, the following steps should be performed:[11]
Step 1: A cycle detection algorithm should have a dynamic filter for detrending,
which is included for pre-processing. This ensures that the data is not affected by
trending information.
Step 2: Subsequently, a cycles engine performs a spectral analysis based on an
optimized Discrete Fourier Transform and then isolates those cycles that are
repetitive and have the largest amplitudes. Research results have shown that an
adapted Goertzel algorithm is most suitable when it comes to detecting cycles in
financial time series.
Step 3: In a third step, the statistic reliability of each cycle is evaluated. The
goal of this procedure is to exclude cycles that have been influenced by one-time
random events (e.g. news).
One of the algorithms used for this is a more sophisticated Bartels Test. The test
builds on detailed mathematics (statistics) which measures the stability of the
amplitude and phase of each cycle. Bartels� statistical test for periodicity,
published at the Carnegie Institution of Washington in 1932, was embraced by the
Foundation for the Study of Cycles decades ago as the best single test for a given
cycle's projected reliability, robustness, and consequently, usefulness. The method
provides a direct measurement of the likelihood that a given cycle is genuine. The
higher the Bartels score is (above 70%, up to 100%), the higher the likelihood that
the cycle is genuine and has not been influenced by one-time events.[12]
Often expert traders will emphasize the use of multiple time frames for successful
trading. For example, Alexander Elder suggests a Triple Screen approach.[13][14]
Search Wikipedia
Go
Main page
Contents
Featured content
Current events
Random article
Donate to Wikipedia
Wikipedia store
Interaction
Help
About Wikipedia
Community portal
Recent changes
Contact page
Tools
What links here
Related changes
Upload file
Special pages
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This page was last edited on 15 October 2017, at 14:17.
Text is available under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License;
additional terms may apply. By using this site, you agree to the Terms of Use and
Privacy Policy. Wikipedia� is a registered trademark of the Wikimedia Foundation,
Inc., a non-profit organization.
Privacy policyAbout WikipediaDisclaimersContact WikipediaDevelopersCookie
statementMobile viewEnable previews
Wikimedia Foundation Powered by MediaWiki
The efficacy of the predictive nature of these cycles is controversial and some of
these cycles have been quantitatively examined for statistical significance.
Contents [hide]
1 Short term and longer term cycles
2 Compound cycles
3 Dynamic cycles
4 Use of multiple screens
5 Publications
6 See also
7 References
8 External links
Short term and longer term cycles[edit]
Cyclical cycles generally last 4 years, with bull and bear market phases lasting
1�3 years, while Secular cycles last about 30 years with bull and bear market
phases lasting 10�20 years. It is generally accepted[citation needed] that in early
2011 the US stock market is in a cyclical bull phase as it has been moving up for a
number of years. It is also generally accepted[citation needed] that it is in a
secular bear phase as it has been stagnant since the stock market peak in 2000. The
longer term Kondratiev cycles are two Secular cycles in length and last roughly 60
years. The end of the Kondratiev cycle is accompanied by economic troubles, such as
the original Great Depression of the 1870s, the Great Depression of the 1930s and
the current Great Recession.
Compound cycles[edit]
The presence of multiple cycles of different periods and magnitudes in conjunction
with linear trends, can give rise to complex patterns, that are mathematically
generated through Fourier analysis.
In order for an investor to more easily visualise a longer term cycle (or a trend),
he sometimes will superimpose a shorter term cycle such as a moving average on top
of it.
A common view of a stock market pattern is one that involves a specific time-frame
(for example a 6-month chart with daily price intervals). In this kind of a chart
one may create and observe any of the following trends or trend relationships:
Dynamic cycles[edit]
Real cyclic motions are not perfectly even; the period varies slightly from one
cycle to the next because of changing physical environmental factors. This dynamic
behavior is also valid for financial market cycles. It requires an awareness of the
active dominant cycle parameter and requires the ability to verify and track the
real current status and dynamic variations that facilitate projection of the next
significant event. Cycles morph over time because of the nature of inner parameters
of length and phase. Active Dominant Cycles in financial markets do not abruptly
jump from one length (e.g., 50) to another (e.g., 120). Typically, one dominant
cycle will remain active for a longer period and vary around the core parameters.
The �genes� of the cycle in terms of length, phase, and amplitude are not fixed and
will morph around the dominant mean parameters.
Steve Puetz calles this "Period variability": �Period variability � Many natural
cycles exhibit considerable variation between repetitions. For instance, the
sunspot cycle has an average period of ~10.75-yr. However, over the past 300 years,
individual cycles varied from 9-yr to 14-yr. Many other natural cycles exhibit
similar variation around mean periods.�[9][10]
These periodic motions abound both in nature and the man-made world. Examples
include a heartbeat or the cyclic movements of planets. Although many real motions
are intrinsically repeated, few are perfectly periodic. For example, a walker�s
stride frequency may vary, and a heart may beat slower or faster. Once an
individual is in a dominant state, the heartbeat cycle will stabilize at an
approximate rate of 85 bpm. However, the exact cycle will not stay static at 85 bpm
but will vary +/- 10%. The variance is not considered a new heartbeat cycle.
To arrive at more reliable and robust information on the dominant cycle for
financial markets, the following steps should be performed:[11]
Step 1: A cycle detection algorithm should have a dynamic filter for detrending,
which is included for pre-processing. This ensures that the data is not affected by
trending information.
Step 2: Subsequently, a cycles engine performs a spectral analysis based on an
optimized Discrete Fourier Transform and then isolates those cycles that are
repetitive and have the largest amplitudes. Research results have shown that an
adapted Goertzel algorithm is most suitable when it comes to detecting cycles in
financial time series.
Step 3: In a third step, the statistic reliability of each cycle is evaluated. The
goal of this procedure is to exclude cycles that have been influenced by one-time
random events (e.g. news).
One of the algorithms used for this is a more sophisticated Bartels Test. The test
builds on detailed mathematics (statistics) which measures the stability of the
amplitude and phase of each cycle. Bartels� statistical test for periodicity,
published at the Carnegie Institution of Washington in 1932, was embraced by the
Foundation for the Study of Cycles decades ago as the best single test for a given
cycle's projected reliability, robustness, and consequently, usefulness. The method
provides a direct measurement of the likelihood that a given cycle is genuine. The
higher the Bartels score is (above 70%, up to 100%), the higher the likelihood that
the cycle is genuine and has not been influenced by one-time events.[12]
Often expert traders will emphasize the use of multiple time frames for successful
trading. For example, Alexander Elder suggests a Triple Screen approach.[13][14]
Search Wikipedia
Go
Main page
Contents
Featured content
Current events
Random article
Donate to Wikipedia
Wikipedia store
Interaction
Help
About Wikipedia
Community portal
Recent changes
Contact page
Tools
What links here
Related changes
Upload file
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This page was last edited on 15 October 2017, at 14:17.
Text is available under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License;
additional terms may apply. By using this site, you agree to the Terms of Use and
Privacy Policy. Wikipedia� is a registered trademark of the Wikimedia Foundation,
Inc., a non-profit organization.
Privacy policyAbout WikipediaDisclaimersContact WikipediaDevelopersCookie
statementMobile viewEnable previews
Wikimedia Foundation Powered by MediaWiki
The efficacy of the predictive nature of these cycles is controversial and some of
these cycles have been quantitatively examined for statistical significance.
Compound cycles[edit]
The presence of multiple cycles of different periods and magnitudes in conjunction
with linear trends, can give rise to complex patterns, that are mathematically
generated through Fourier analysis.
In order for an investor to more easily visualise a longer term cycle (or a trend),
he sometimes will superimpose a shorter term cycle such as a moving average on top
of it.
A common view of a stock market pattern is one that involves a specific time-frame
(for example a 6-month chart with daily price intervals). In this kind of a chart
one may create and observe any of the following trends or trend relationships:
Dynamic cycles[edit]
Real cyclic motions are not perfectly even; the period varies slightly from one
cycle to the next because of changing physical environmental factors. This dynamic
behavior is also valid for financial market cycles. It requires an awareness of the
active dominant cycle parameter and requires the ability to verify and track the
real current status and dynamic variations that facilitate projection of the next
significant event. Cycles morph over time because of the nature of inner parameters
of length and phase. Active Dominant Cycles in financial markets do not abruptly
jump from one length (e.g., 50) to another (e.g., 120). Typically, one dominant
cycle will remain active for a longer period and vary around the core parameters.
The �genes� of the cycle in terms of length, phase, and amplitude are not fixed and
will morph around the dominant mean parameters.
Steve Puetz calles this "Period variability": �Period variability � Many natural
cycles exhibit considerable variation between repetitions. For instance, the
sunspot cycle has an average period of ~10.75-yr. However, over the past 300 years,
individual cycles varied from 9-yr to 14-yr. Many other natural cycles exhibit
similar variation around mean periods.�[9][10]
These periodic motions abound both in nature and the man-made world. Examples
include a heartbeat or the cyclic movements of planets. Although many real motions
are intrinsically repeated, few are perfectly periodic. For example, a walker�s
stride frequency may vary, and a heart may beat slower or faster. Once an
individual is in a dominant state, the heartbeat cycle will stabilize at an
approximate rate of 85 bpm. However, the exact cycle will not stay static at 85 bpm
but will vary +/- 10%. The variance is not considered a new heartbeat cycle.
To arrive at more reliable and robust information on the dominant cycle for
financial markets, the following steps should be performed:[11]
Step 1: A cycle detection algorithm should have a dynamic filter for detrending,
which is included for pre-processing. This ensures that the data is not affected by
trending information.
Step 2: Subsequently, a cycles engine performs a spectral analysis based on an
optimized Discrete Fourier Transform and then isolates those cycles that are
repetitive and have the largest amplitudes. Research results have shown that an
adapted Goertzel algorithm is most suitable when it comes to detecting cycles in
financial time series.
Step 3: In a third step, the statistic reliability of each cycle is evaluated. The
goal of this procedure is to exclude cycles that have been influenced by one-time
random events (e.g. news).
One of the algorithms used for this is a more sophisticated Bartels Test. The test
builds on detailed mathematics (statistics) which measures the stability of the
amplitude and phase of each cycle. Bartels� statistical test for periodicity,
published at the Carnegie Institution of Washington in 1932, was embraced by the
Foundation for the Study of Cycles decades ago as the best single test for a given
cycle's projected reliability, robustness, and consequently, usefulness. The method
provides a direct measurement of the likelihood that a given cycle is genuine. The
higher the Bartels score is (above 70%, up to 100%), the higher the likelihood that
the cycle is genuine and has not been influenced by one-time events.[12]
Often expert traders will emphasize the use of multiple time frames for successful
trading. For example, Alexander Elder suggests a Triple Screen approach.[13][14]
Search Wikipedia
Go
Main page
Contents
Featured content
Current events
Random article
Donate to Wikipedia
Wikipedia store
Interaction
Help
About Wikipedia
Community portal
Recent changes
Contact page
Tools
What links here
Related changes
Upload file
Special pages
Permanent link
Page information
Wikidata item
Cite this page
Print/export
Create a book
Download as PDF
Printable version
Languages
Add links
This page was last edited on 15 October 2017, at 14:17.
Text is available under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License;
additional terms may apply. By using this site, you agree to the Terms of Use and
Privacy Policy. Wikipedia� is a registered trademark of the Wikimedia Foundation,
Inc., a non-profit organization.
Privacy policyAbout WikipediaDisclaimersContact WikipediaDevelopersCookie
statementMobile viewEnable previews
Wikimedia Foundation Powered by MediaWiki
The efficacy of the predictive nature of these cycles is controversial and some of
these cycles have been quantitatively examined for statistical significance.
Contents [hide]
1 Short term and longer term cycles
2 Compound cycles
3 Dynamic cycles
4 Use of multiple screens
5 Publications
6 See also
7 References
8 External links
Short term and longer term cycles[edit]
Cyclical cycles generally last 4 years, with bull and bear market phases lasting
1�3 years, while Secular cycles last about 30 years with bull and bear market
phases lasting 10�20 years. It is generally accepted[citation needed] that in early
2011 the US stock market is in a cyclical bull phase as it has been moving up for a
number of years. It is also generally accepted[citation needed] that it is in a
secular bear phase as it has been stagnant since the stock market peak in 2000. The
longer term Kondratiev cycles are two Secular cycles in length and last roughly 60
years. The end of the Kondratiev cycle is accompanied by economic troubles, such as
the original Great Depression of the 1870s, the Great Depression of the 1930s and
the current Great Recession.
Compound cycles[edit]
The presence of multiple cycles of different periods and magnitudes in conjunction
with linear trends, can give rise to complex patterns, that are mathematically
generated through Fourier analysis.
In order for an investor to more easily visualise a longer term cycle (or a trend),
he sometimes will superimpose a shorter term cycle such as a moving average on top
of it.
A common view of a stock market pattern is one that involves a specific time-frame
(for example a 6-month chart with daily price intervals). In this kind of a chart
one may create and observe any of the following trends or trend relationships:
Dynamic cycles[edit]
Real cyclic motions are not perfectly even; the period varies slightly from one
cycle to the next because of changing physical environmental factors. This dynamic
behavior is also valid for financial market cycles. It requires an awareness of the
active dominant cycle parameter and requires the ability to verify and track the
real current status and dynamic variations that facilitate projection of the next
significant event. Cycles morph over time because of the nature of inner parameters
of length and phase. Active Dominant Cycles in financial markets do not abruptly
jump from one length (e.g., 50) to another (e.g., 120). Typically, one dominant
cycle will remain active for a longer period and vary around the core parameters.
The �genes� of the cycle in terms of length, phase, and amplitude are not fixed and
will morph around the dominant mean parameters.
Steve Puetz calles this "Period variability": �Period variability � Many natural
cycles exhibit considerable variation between repetitions. For instance, the
sunspot cycle has an average period of ~10.75-yr. However, over the past 300 years,
individual cycles varied from 9-yr to 14-yr. Many other natural cycles exhibit
similar variation around mean periods.�[9][10]
These periodic motions abound both in nature and the man-made world. Examples
include a heartbeat or the cyclic movements of planets. Although many real motions
are intrinsically repeated, few are perfectly periodic. For example, a walker�s
stride frequency may vary, and a heart may beat slower or faster. Once an
individual is in a dominant state, the heartbeat cycle will stabilize at an
approximate rate of 85 bpm. However, the exact cycle will not stay static at 85 bpm
but will vary +/- 10%. The variance is not considered a new heartbeat cycle.
To arrive at more reliable and robust information on the dominant cycle for
financial markets, the following steps should be performed:[11]
Step 1: A cycle detection algorithm should have a dynamic filter for detrending,
which is included for pre-processing. This ensures that the data is not affected by
trending information.
Step 2: Subsequently, a cycles engine performs a spectral analysis based on an
optimized Discrete Fourier Transform and then isolates those cycles that are
repetitive and have the largest amplitudes. Research results have shown that an
adapted Goertzel algorithm is most suitable when it comes to detecting cycles in
financial time series.
Step 3: In a third step, the statistic reliability of each cycle is evaluated. The
goal of this procedure is to exclude cycles that have been influenced by one-time
random events (e.g. news).
One of the algorithms used for this is a more sophisticated Bartels Test. The test
builds on detailed mathematics (statistics) which measures the stability of the
amplitude and phase of each cycle. Bartels� statistical test for periodicity,
published at the Carnegie Institution of Washington in 1932, was embraced by the
Foundation for the Study of Cycles decades ago as the best single test for a given
cycle's projected reliability, robustness, and consequently, usefulness. The method
provides a direct measurement of the likelihood that a given cycle is genuine. The
higher the Bartels score is (above 70%, up to 100%), the higher the likelihood that
the cycle is genuine and has not been influenced by one-time events.[12]
Often expert traders will emphasize the use of multiple time frames for successful
trading. For example, Alexander Elder suggests a Triple Screen approach.[13][14]
Search Wikipedia
Go
Main page
Contents
Featured content
Current events
Random article
Donate to Wikipedia
Wikipedia store
Interaction
Help
About Wikipedia
Community portal
Recent changes
Contact page
Tools
What links here
Related changes
Upload file
Special pages
Permanent link
Page information
Wikidata item
Cite this page
Print/export
Create a book
Download as PDF
Printable version
Languages
Add links
This page was last edited on 15 October 2017, at 14:17.
Text is available under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License;
additional terms may apply. By using this site, you agree to the Terms of Use and
Privacy Policy. Wikipedia� is a registered trademark of the Wikimedia Foundation,
Inc., a non-profit organization.
Privacy policyAbout WikipediaDisclaimersContact WikipediaDevelopersCookie
statementMobile viewEnable previews
Wikimedia Foundation Powered by MediaWiki
The efficacy of the predictive nature of these cycles is controversial and some of
these cycles have been quantitatively examined for statistical significance.
Contents [hide]
1 Short term and longer term cycles
2 Compound cycles
3 Dynamic cycles
4 Use of multiple screens
5 Publications
6 See also
7 References
8 External links
Short term and longer term cycles[edit]
Cyclical cycles generally last 4 years, with bull and bear market phases lasting
1�3 years, while Secular cycles last about 30 years with bull and bear market
phases lasting 10�20 years. It is generally accepted[citation needed] that in early
2011 the US stock market is in a cyclical bull phase as it has been moving up for a
number of years. It is also generally accepted[citation needed] that it is in a
secular bear phase as it has been stagnant since the stock market peak in 2000. The
longer term Kondratiev cycles are two Secular cycles in length and last roughly 60
years. The end of the Kondratiev cycle is accompanied by economic troubles, such as
the original Great Depression of the 1870s, the Great Depression of the 1930s and
the current Great Recession.
Compound cycles[edit]
The presence of multiple cycles of different periods and magnitudes in conjunction
with linear trends, can give rise to complex patterns, that are mathematically
generated through Fourier analysis.
In order for an investor to more easily visualise a longer term cycle (or a trend),
he sometimes will superimpose a shorter term cycle such as a moving average on top
of it.
A common view of a stock market pattern is one that involves a specific time-frame
(for example a 6-month chart with daily price intervals). In this kind of a chart
one may create and observe any of the following trends or trend relationships:
Dynamic cycles[edit]
Real cyclic motions are not perfectly even; the period varies slightly from one
cycle to the next because of changing physical environmental factors. This dynamic
behavior is also valid for financial market cycles. It requires an awareness of the
active dominant cycle parameter and requires the ability to verify and track the
real current status and dynamic variations that facilitate projection of the next
significant event. Cycles morph over time because of the nature of inner parameters
of length and phase. Active Dominant Cycles in financial markets do not abruptly
jump from one length (e.g., 50) to another (e.g., 120). Typically, one dominant
cycle will remain active for a longer period and vary around the core parameters.
The �genes� of the cycle in terms of length, phase, and amplitude are not fixed and
will morph around the dominant mean parameters.
Steve Puetz calles this "Period variability": �Period variability � Many natural
cycles exhibit considerable variation between repetitions. For instance, the
sunspot cycle has an average period of ~10.75-yr. However, over the past 300 years,
individual cycles varied from 9-yr to 14-yr. Many other natural cycles exhibit
similar variation around mean periods.�[9][10]
These periodic motions abound both in nature and the man-made world. Examples
include a heartbeat or the cyclic movements of planets. Although many real motions
are intrinsically repeated, few are perfectly periodic. For example, a walker�s
stride frequency may vary, and a heart may beat slower or faster. Once an
individual is in a dominant state, the heartbeat cycle will stabilize at an
approximate rate of 85 bpm. However, the exact cycle will not stay static at 85 bpm
but will vary +/- 10%. The variance is not considered a new heartbeat cycle.
To arrive at more reliable and robust information on the dominant cycle for
financial markets, the following steps should be performed:[11]
Step 1: A cycle detection algorithm should have a dynamic filter for detrending,
which is included for pre-processing. This ensures that the data is not affected by
trending information.
Step 2: Subsequently, a cycles engine performs a spectral analysis based on an
optimized Discrete Fourier Transform and then isolates those cycles that are
repetitive and have the largest amplitudes. Research results have shown that an
adapted Goertzel algorithm is most suitable when it comes to detecting cycles in
financial time series.
Step 3: In a third step, the statistic reliability of each cycle is evaluated. The
goal of this procedure is to exclude cycles that have been influenced by one-time
random events (e.g. news).
One of the algorithms used for this is a more sophisticated Bartels Test. The test
builds on detailed mathematics (statistics) which measures the stability of the
amplitude and phase of each cycle. Bartels� statistical test for periodicity,
published at the Carnegie Institution of Washington in 1932, was embraced by the
Foundation for the Study of Cycles decades ago as the best single test for a given
cycle's projected reliability, robustness, and consequently, usefulness. The method
provides a direct measurement of the likelihood that a given cycle is genuine. The
higher the Bartels score is (above 70%, up to 100%), the higher the likelihood that
the cycle is genuine and has not been influenced by one-time events.[12]
Often expert traders will emphasize the use of multiple time frames for successful
trading. For example, Alexander Elder suggests a Triple Screen approach.[13][14]
Search Wikipedia
Go
Main page
Contents
Featured content
Current events
Random article
Donate to Wikipedia
Wikipedia store
Interaction
Help
About Wikipedia
Community portal
Recent changes
Contact page
Tools
What links here
Related changes
Upload file
Special pages
Permanent link
Page information
Wikidata item
Cite this page
Print/export
Create a book
Download as PDF
Printable version
Languages
Add links
This page was last edited on 15 October 2017, at 14:17.
Text is available under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License;
additional terms may apply. By using this site, you agree to the Terms of Use and
Privacy Policy. Wikipedia� is a registered trademark of the Wikimedia Foundation,
Inc., a non-profit organization.
Privacy policyAbout WikipediaDisclaimersContact WikipediaDevelopersCookie
statementMobile viewEnable previews
Wikimedia Foundation Powered by MediaWiki
The efficacy of the predictive nature of these cycles is controversial and some of
these cycles have been quantitatively examined for statistical significance.
Contents [hide]
1 Short term and longer term cycles
2 Compound cycles
3 Dynamic cycles
4 Use of multiple screens
5 Publications
6 See also
7 References
8 External links
Short term and longer term cycles[edit]
Cyclical cycles generally last 4 years, with bull and bear market phases lasting
1�3 years, while Secular cycles last about 30 years with bull and bear market
phases lasting 10�20 years. It is generally accepted[citation needed] that in early
2011 the US stock market is in a cyclical bull phase as it has been moving up for a
number of years. It is also generally accepted[citation needed] that it is in a
secular bear phase as it has been stagnant since the stock market peak in 2000. The
longer term Kondratiev cycles are two Secular cycles in length and last roughly 60
years. The end of the Kondratiev cycle is accompanied by economic troubles, such as
the original Great Depression of the 1870s, the Great Depression of the 1930s and
the current Great Recession.
Compound cycles[edit]
The presence of multiple cycles of different periods and magnitudes in conjunction
with linear trends, can give rise to complex patterns, that are mathematically
generated through Fourier analysis.
In order for an investor to more easily visualise a longer term cycle (or a trend),
he sometimes will superimpose a shorter term cycle such as a moving average on top
of it.
A common view of a stock market pattern is one that involves a specific time-frame
(for example a 6-month chart with daily price intervals). In this kind of a chart
one may create and observe any of the following trends or trend relationships:
Dynamic cycles[edit]
Real cyclic motions are not perfectly even; the period varies slightly from one
cycle to the next because of changing physical environmental factors. This dynamic
behavior is also valid for financial market cycles. It requires an awareness of the
active dominant cycle parameter and requires the ability to verify and track the
real current status and dynamic variations that facilitate projection of the next
significant event. Cycles morph over time because of the nature of inner parameters
of length and phase. Active Dominant Cycles in financial markets do not abruptly
jump from one length (e.g., 50) to another (e.g., 120). Typically, one dominant
cycle will remain active for a longer period and vary around the core parameters.
The �genes� of the cycle in terms of length, phase, and amplitude are not fixed and
will morph around the dominant mean parameters.
Steve Puetz calles this "Period variability": �Period variability � Many natural
cycles exhibit considerable variation between repetitions. For instance, the
sunspot cycle has an average period of ~10.75-yr. However, over the past 300 years,
individual cycles varied from 9-yr to 14-yr. Many other natural cycles exhibit
similar variation around mean periods.�[9][10]
These periodic motions abound both in nature and the man-made world. Examples
include a heartbeat or the cyclic movements of planets. Although many real motions
are intrinsically repeated, few are perfectly periodic. For example, a walker�s
stride frequency may vary, and a heart may beat slower or faster. Once an
individual is in a dominant state, the heartbeat cycle will stabilize at an
approximate rate of 85 bpm. However, the exact cycle will not stay static at 85 bpm
but will vary +/- 10%. The variance is not considered a new heartbeat cycle.
To arrive at more reliable and robust information on the dominant cycle for
financial markets, the following steps should be performed:[11]
Step 1: A cycle detection algorithm should have a dynamic filter for detrending,
which is included for pre-processing. This ensures that the data is not affected by
trending information.
Step 2: Subsequently, a cycles engine performs a spectral analysis based on an
optimized Discrete Fourier Transform and then isolates those cycles that are
repetitive and have the largest amplitudes. Research results have shown that an
adapted Goertzel algorithm is most suitable when it comes to detecting cycles in
financial time series.
Step 3: In a third step, the statistic reliability of each cycle is evaluated. The
goal of this procedure is to exclude cycles that have been influenced by one-time
random events (e.g. news).
One of the algorithms used for this is a more sophisticated Bartels Test. The test
builds on detailed mathematics (statistics) which measures the stability of the
amplitude and phase of each cycle. Bartels� statistical test for periodicity,
published at the Carnegie Institution of Washington in 1932, was embraced by the
Foundation for the Study of Cycles decades ago as the best single test for a given
cycle's projected reliability, robustness, and consequently, usefulness. The method
provides a direct measurement of the likelihood that a given cycle is genuine. The
higher the Bartels score is (above 70%, up to 100%), the higher the likelihood that
the cycle is genuine and has not been influenced by one-time events.[12]
Often expert traders will emphasize the use of multiple time frames for successful
trading. For example, Alexander Elder suggests a Triple Screen approach.[13][14]
Search Wikipedia
Go
Main page
Contents
Featured content
Current events
Random article
Donate to Wikipedia
Wikipedia store
Interaction
Help
About Wikipedia
Community portal
Recent changes
Contact page
Tools
What links here
Related changes
Upload file
Special pages
Permanent link
Page information
Wikidata item
Cite this page
Print/export
Create a book
Download as PDF
Printable version
Languages
Add links
This page was last edited on 15 October 2017, at 14:17.
Text is available under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License;
additional terms may apply. By using this site, you agree to the Terms of Use and
Privacy Policy. Wikipedia� is a registered trademark of the Wikimedia Foundation,
Inc., a non-profit organization.
Privacy policyAbout WikipediaDisclaimersContact WikipediaDevelopersCookie
statementMobile viewEnable previews
Wikimedia Foundation Powered by MediaWiki
The efficacy of the predictive nature of these cycles is controversial and some of
these cycles have been quantitatively examined for statistical significance.
Contents [hide]
1 Short term and longer term cycles
2 Compound cycles
3 Dynamic cycles
4 Use of multiple screens
5 Publications
6 See also
7 References
8 External links
Short term and longer term cycles[edit]
Cyclical cycles generally last 4 years, with bull and bear market phases lasting
1�3 years, while Secular cycles last about 30 years with bull and bear market
phases lasting 10�20 years. It is generally accepted[citation needed] that in early
2011 the US stock market is in a cyclical bull phase as it has been moving up for a
number of years. It is also generally accepted[citation needed] that it is in a
secular bear phase as it has been stagnant since the stock market peak in 2000. The
longer term Kondratiev cycles are two Secular cycles in length and last roughly 60
years. The end of the Kondratiev cycle is accompanied by economic troubles, such as
the original Great Depression of the 1870s, the Great Depression of the 1930s and
the current Great Recession.
Compound cycles[edit]
The presence of multiple cycles of different periods and magnitudes in conjunction
with linear trends, can give rise to complex patterns, that are mathematically
generated through Fourier analysis.
In order for an investor to more easily visualise a longer term cycle (or a trend),
he sometimes will superimpose a shorter term cycle such as a moving average on top
of it.
A common view of a stock market pattern is one that involves a specific time-frame
(for example a 6-month chart with daily price intervals). In this kind of a chart
one may create and observe any of the following trends or trend relationships:
A long-term trend, which may appear as linear
Intermediate term trends and their relationship to the long-term trend
Random price movements or consolidation (sometimes referred to as 'noise') and its
relationship to one of the above
For example, if one looks at a longer time-frame (perhaps a 2-year chart with
weekly price intervals), the current trend may appear as a part of a larger cycle
(primary trend). Switching to a shorter time-frame (such as a 10-day chart using
60-minute price intervals), may reveal price movements that appear as shorter-term
trends in contrast to the primary trend on the six-month, daily time period, chart.
Dynamic cycles[edit]
Real cyclic motions are not perfectly even; the period varies slightly from one
cycle to the next because of changing physical environmental factors. This dynamic
behavior is also valid for financial market cycles. It requires an awareness of the
active dominant cycle parameter and requires the ability to verify and track the
real current status and dynamic variations that facilitate projection of the next
significant event. Cycles morph over time because of the nature of inner parameters
of length and phase. Active Dominant Cycles in financial markets do not abruptly
jump from one length (e.g., 50) to another (e.g., 120). Typically, one dominant
cycle will remain active for a longer period and vary around the core parameters.
The �genes� of the cycle in terms of length, phase, and amplitude are not fixed and
will morph around the dominant mean parameters.
Steve Puetz calles this "Period variability": �Period variability � Many natural
cycles exhibit considerable variation between repetitions. For instance, the
sunspot cycle has an average period of ~10.75-yr. However, over the past 300 years,
individual cycles varied from 9-yr to 14-yr. Many other natural cycles exhibit
similar variation around mean periods.�[9][10]
These periodic motions abound both in nature and the man-made world. Examples
include a heartbeat or the cyclic movements of planets. Although many real motions
are intrinsically repeated, few are perfectly periodic. For example, a walker�s
stride frequency may vary, and a heart may beat slower or faster. Once an
individual is in a dominant state, the heartbeat cycle will stabilize at an
approximate rate of 85 bpm. However, the exact cycle will not stay static at 85 bpm
but will vary +/- 10%. The variance is not considered a new heartbeat cycle.
To arrive at more reliable and robust information on the dominant cycle for
financial markets, the following steps should be performed:[11]
Step 1: A cycle detection algorithm should have a dynamic filter for detrending,
which is included for pre-processing. This ensures that the data is not affected by
trending information.
Step 2: Subsequently, a cycles engine performs a spectral analysis based on an
optimized Discrete Fourier Transform and then isolates those cycles that are
repetitive and have the largest amplitudes. Research results have shown that an
adapted Goertzel algorithm is most suitable when it comes to detecting cycles in
financial time series.
Step 3: In a third step, the statistic reliability of each cycle is evaluated. The
goal of this procedure is to exclude cycles that have been influenced by one-time
random events (e.g. news).
One of the algorithms used for this is a more sophisticated Bartels Test. The test
builds on detailed mathematics (statistics) which measures the stability of the
amplitude and phase of each cycle. Bartels� statistical test for periodicity,
published at the Carnegie Institution of Washington in 1932, was embraced by the
Foundation for the Study of Cycles decades ago as the best single test for a given
cycle's projected reliability, robustness, and consequently, usefulness. The method
provides a direct measurement of the likelihood that a given cycle is genuine. The
higher the Bartels score is (above 70%, up to 100%), the higher the likelihood that
the cycle is genuine and has not been influenced by one-time events.[12]
Often expert traders will emphasize the use of multiple time frames for successful
trading. For example, Alexander Elder suggests a Triple Screen approach.[13][14]
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This page was last edited on 15 October 2017, at 14:17.
Text is available under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License;
additional terms may apply. By using this site, you agree to the Terms of Use and
Privacy Policy. Wikipedia� is a registered trademark of the Wikimedia Foundation,
Inc., a non-profit organization.
Privacy policyAbout WikipediaDisclaimersContact WikipediaDevelopersCookie
statementMobile viewEnable previews
Wikimedia Foundation Powered by MediaWiki
The efficacy of the predictive nature of these cycles is controversial and some of
these cycles have been quantitatively examined for statistical significance.
Contents [hide]
1 Short term and longer term cycles
2 Compound cycles
3 Dynamic cycles
4 Use of multiple screens
5 Publications
6 See also
7 References
8 External links
Short term and longer term cycles[edit]
Cyclical cycles generally last 4 years, with bull and bear market phases lasting
1�3 years, while Secular cycles last about 30 years with bull and bear market
phases lasting 10�20 years. It is generally accepted[citation needed] that in early
2011 the US stock market is in a cyclical bull phase as it has been moving up for a
number of years. It is also generally accepted[citation needed] that it is in a
secular bear phase as it has been stagnant since the stock market peak in 2000. The
longer term Kondratiev cycles are two Secular cycles in length and last roughly 60
years. The end of the Kondratiev cycle is accompanied by economic troubles, such as
the original Great Depression of the 1870s, the Great Depression of the 1930s and
the current Great Recession.
Compound cycles[edit]
The presence of multiple cycles of different periods and magnitudes in conjunction
with linear trends, can give rise to complex patterns, that are mathematically
generated through Fourier analysis.
In order for an investor to more easily visualise a longer term cycle (or a trend),
he sometimes will superimpose a shorter term cycle such as a moving average on top
of it.
A common view of a stock market pattern is one that involves a specific time-frame
(for example a 6-month chart with daily price intervals). In this kind of a chart
one may create and observe any of the following trends or trend relationships:
Dynamic cycles[edit]
Real cyclic motions are not perfectly even; the period varies slightly from one
cycle to the next because of changing physical environmental factors. This dynamic
behavior is also valid for financial market cycles. It requires an awareness of the
active dominant cycle parameter and requires the ability to verify and track the
real current status and dynamic variations that facilitate projection of the next
significant event. Cycles morph over time because of the nature of inner parameters
of length and phase. Active Dominant Cycles in financial markets do not abruptly
jump from one length (e.g., 50) to another (e.g., 120). Typically, one dominant
cycle will remain active for a longer period and vary around the core parameters.
The �genes� of the cycle in terms of length, phase, and amplitude are not fixed and
will morph around the dominant mean parameters.
Steve Puetz calles this "Period variability": �Period variability � Many natural
cycles exhibit considerable variation between repetitions. For instance, the
sunspot cycle has an average period of ~10.75-yr. However, over the past 300 years,
individual cycles varied from 9-yr to 14-yr. Many other natural cycles exhibit
similar variation around mean periods.�[9][10]
These periodic motions abound both in nature and the man-made world. Examples
include a heartbeat or the cyclic movements of planets. Although many real motions
are intrinsically repeated, few are perfectly periodic. For example, a walker�s
stride frequency may vary, and a heart may beat slower or faster. Once an
individual is in a dominant state, the heartbeat cycle will stabilize at an
approximate rate of 85 bpm. However, the exact cycle will not stay static at 85 bpm
but will vary +/- 10%. The variance is not considered a new heartbeat cycle.
To arrive at more reliable and robust information on the dominant cycle for
financial markets, the following steps should be performed:[11]
Step 1: A cycle detection algorithm should have a dynamic filter for detrending,
which is included for pre-processing. This ensures that the data is not affected by
trending information.
Step 2: Subsequently, a cycles engine performs a spectral analysis based on an
optimized Discrete Fourier Transform and then isolates those cycles that are
repetitive and have the largest amplitudes. Research results have shown that an
adapted Goertzel algorithm is most suitable when it comes to detecting cycles in
financial time series.
Step 3: In a third step, the statistic reliability of each cycle is evaluated. The
goal of this procedure is to exclude cycles that have been influenced by one-time
random events (e.g. news).
One of the algorithms used for this is a more sophisticated Bartels Test. The test
builds on detailed mathematics (statistics) which measures the stability of the
amplitude and phase of each cycle. Bartels� statistical test for periodicity,
published at the Carnegie Institution of Washington in 1932, was embraced by the
Foundation for the Study of Cycles decades ago as the best single test for a given
cycle's projected reliability, robustness, and consequently, usefulness. The method
provides a direct measurement of the likelihood that a given cycle is genuine. The
higher the Bartels score is (above 70%, up to 100%), the higher the likelihood that
the cycle is genuine and has not been influenced by one-time events.[12]
Often expert traders will emphasize the use of multiple time frames for successful
trading. For example, Alexander Elder suggests a Triple Screen approach.[13][14]
Search Wikipedia
Go
Main page
Contents
Featured content
Current events
Random article
Donate to Wikipedia
Wikipedia store
Interaction
Help
About Wikipedia
Community portal
Recent changes
Contact page
Tools
What links here
Related changes
Upload file
Special pages
Permanent link
Page information
Wikidata item
Cite this page
Print/export
Create a book
Download as PDF
Printable version
Languages
Add links
This page was last edited on 15 October 2017, at 14:17.
Text is available under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License;
additional terms may apply. By using this site, you agree to the Terms of Use and
Privacy Policy. Wikipedia� is a registered trademark of the Wikimedia Foundation,
Inc., a non-profit organization.
Privacy policyAbout WikipediaDisclaimersContact WikipediaDevelopersCookie
statementMobile viewEnable previews
Wikimedia Foundation Powered by MediaWiki
The efficacy of the predictive nature of these cycles is controversial and some of
these cycles have been quantitatively examined for statistical significance.
Contents [hide]
1 Short term and longer term cycles
2 Compound cycles
3 Dynamic cycles
4 Use of multiple screens
5 Publications
6 See also
7 References
8 External links
Short term and longer term cycles[edit]
Cyclical cycles generally last 4 years, with bull and bear market phases lasting
1�3 years, while Secular cycles last about 30 years with bull and bear market
phases lasting 10�20 years. It is generally accepted[citation needed] that in early
2011 the US stock market is in a cyclical bull phase as it has been moving up for a
number of years. It is also generally accepted[citation needed] that it is in a
secular bear phase as it has been stagnant since the stock market peak in 2000. The
longer term Kondratiev cycles are two Secular cycles in length and last roughly 60
years. The end of the Kondratiev cycle is accompanied by economic troubles, such as
the original Great Depression of the 1870s, the Great Depression of the 1930s and
the current Great Recession.
Compound cycles[edit]
The presence of multiple cycles of different periods and magnitudes in conjunction
with linear trends, can give rise to complex patterns, that are mathematically
generated through Fourier analysis.
In order for an investor to more easily visualise a longer term cycle (or a trend),
he sometimes will superimpose a shorter term cycle such as a moving average on top
of it.
A common view of a stock market pattern is one that involves a specific time-frame
(for example a 6-month chart with daily price intervals). In this kind of a chart
one may create and observe any of the following trends or trend relationships:
Dynamic cycles[edit]
Real cyclic motions are not perfectly even; the period varies slightly from one
cycle to the next because of changing physical environmental factors. This dynamic
behavior is also valid for financial market cycles. It requires an awareness of the
active dominant cycle parameter and requires the ability to verify and track the
real current status and dynamic variations that facilitate projection of the next
significant event. Cycles morph over time because of the nature of inner parameters
of length and phase. Active Dominant Cycles in financial markets do not abruptly
jump from one length (e.g., 50) to another (e.g., 120). Typically, one dominant
cycle will remain active for a longer period and vary around the core parameters.
The �genes� of the cycle in terms of length, phase, and amplitude are not fixed and
will morph around the dominant mean parameters.
Steve Puetz calles this "Period variability": �Period variability � Many natural
cycles exhibit considerable variation between repetitions. For instance, the
sunspot cycle has an average period of ~10.75-yr. However, over the past 300 years,
individual cycles varied from 9-yr to 14-yr. Many other natural cycles exhibit
similar variation around mean periods.�[9][10]
These periodic motions abound both in nature and the man-made world. Examples
include a heartbeat or the cyclic movements of planets. Although many real motions
are intrinsically repeated, few are perfectly periodic. For example, a walker�s
stride frequency may vary, and a heart may beat slower or faster. Once an
individual is in a dominant state, the heartbeat cycle will stabilize at an
approximate rate of 85 bpm. However, the exact cycle will not stay static at 85 bpm
but will vary +/- 10%. The variance is not considered a new heartbeat cycle.
To arrive at more reliable and robust information on the dominant cycle for
financial markets, the following steps should be performed:[11]
Step 1: A cycle detection algorithm should have a dynamic filter for detrending,
which is included for pre-processing. This ensures that the data is not affected by
trending information.
Step 2: Subsequently, a cycles engine performs a spectral analysis based on an
optimized Discrete Fourier Transform and then isolates those cycles that are
repetitive and have the largest amplitudes. Research results have shown that an
adapted Goertzel algorithm is most suitable when it comes to detecting cycles in
financial time series.
Step 3: In a third step, the statistic reliability of each cycle is evaluated. The
goal of this procedure is to exclude cycles that have been influenced by one-time
random events (e.g. news).
One of the algorithms used for this is a more sophisticated Bartels Test. The test
builds on detailed mathematics (statistics) which measures the stability of the
amplitude and phase of each cycle. Bartels� statistical test for periodicity,
published at the Carnegie Institution of Washington in 1932, was embraced by the
Foundation for the Study of Cycles decades ago as the best single test for a given
cycle's projected reliability, robustness, and consequently, usefulness. The method
provides a direct measurement of the likelihood that a given cycle is genuine. The
higher the Bartels score is (above 70%, up to 100%), the higher the likelihood that
the cycle is genuine and has not been influenced by one-time events.[12]
Often expert traders will emphasize the use of multiple time frames for successful
trading. For example, Alexander Elder suggests a Triple Screen approach.[13][14]
Search Wikipedia
Go
Main page
Contents
Featured content
Current events
Random article
Donate to Wikipedia
Wikipedia store
Interaction
Help
About Wikipedia
Community portal
Recent changes
Contact page
Tools
What links here
Related changes
Upload file
Special pages
Permanent link
Page information
Wikidata item
Cite this page
Print/export
Create a book
Download as PDF
Printable version
Languages
Add links
This page was last edited on 15 October 2017, at 14:17.
Text is available under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License;
additional terms may apply. By using this site, you agree to the Terms of Use and
Privacy Policy. Wikipedia� is a registered trademark of the Wikimedia Foundation,
Inc., a non-profit organization.
Privacy policyAbout WikipediaDisclaimersContact WikipediaDevelopersCookie
statementMobile viewEnable previews
Wikimedia Foundation Powered by MediaWiki