( 631 ) Probability II

Pre-Requisite Reading: Probability I

This section describes some key components for a second course in

Probability.
Apr 13, 2013 ⃒ © stephenbankes@gmail.com ⃒ http://142.23.40.13/courses

( 6311 ) Introduction

( 6314 ) Conditional Events

( 6315 ) Trees

( 6316 ) Bayes Theorem

( 6318 ) Poker Hands

( 6319 ) Open Ended Questions

ASSIGNMENT
Glossary

item description example

AA = { 1, 2, 3, 4 },
set group of elements
BB = { 2, 4, 6 }

if AA = { 1, 2, 3, 4 }
size of set number of elements in a set
then n(A) = 4

union elements that belong to all the sets AA U BB = { 1, 2, 3, 4, 6 }

A U B can is written as AA or BB

intersection elements common to all sets AA ∩∩ BB = { 2, 4 }

A ∩ B is also written as AA and BB

2
 EXERCISES
( 6311 ) Probability II
GLOSSARY
Prerequisite Reading: Sets | Probability I

TERMINOLOGY

An eexxppeerriimme
en tt is an activity with a measurable outcome.

ie: toss a die and record what number lands face up

The ssaammppllee s ppaaccee is the set of all possible outcomes of an experiment.

The nnuummbbeerr of possible outcomes is the size of the sample space and is

written as nn((SS)).

ie: possible outcomes for the toss of a die is S = { 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 }

and n(S) = 6

It is usually desireable to make it so that each outcome is equally likely.

For example in the tossing of two coins, where each coin can lands either

heads ( H ) or tails ( T )

if HT means the first coin lands heads, second coin tails, then { HH, HT,

TH, TT } is a set of equally likely outcomes.

if HT means that one coin lands heads and the other tails, then { HH, HT,

TT } are not equally likely outcomes.

An eevveenntt is a subset of the sample space.

ie: for the toss of a die, the event of getting an even number is the

subset { 2, 4, 6 }

The pprroobbaabbiil
li ttyy of an event EE, written as P(E), is defined by
number of ways for the event to occur n(E)
P(E) = =
number of possible outcomes n(S)

Note that 0 ≤ P(E) ≤ 1 where

P(E) = 1 means event E is certain ( 100% ) to occur and

P(E) = 0 means event E will never occur.

3
EXAMPLES

size Equally Likely

EXPERIMENT Sample Space S
n(S) Outcomes?
n(S) =
Toss a Coin S = { h, t } yes
2
n(S) =
Toss 2 Coins S = { hh, ht, tt } no
3
n(S) =
Toss 2 Coins S = { hh, ht, th, tt } yes
4
Toss a Dice and S = { 1h, 1t, 2h, 2t, 3h, 3t, n(S) =
yes
a Coin 4h, 4t, 5h, 5t, 6h, 6t } 12

TTwwoo ddiiee aarree sshhaakkeenn aanndd ttoosssseedd

a. Sample Space SS of the numbers which appear face up

11 21 31 41 51 61
12 22 32 42 52 62
13 23 33 43 53 63
14 24 34 44 54 64
15 25 35 45 55 65
16 26 36 46 56 66

Note: in these outcomes, such "34" the 3 is the first die and the 4 is the
second die and that any of these pairs of numbers, such as 34, or 65, are
equally likely events. Also note that the size of this sample space is n(S) = 36

b. What is the probability of getting a double?

If the event of getting a double is labeled as DD, then

D = { 11, 22, 33, 44, 55, 66 }
and since the SIZE of D is 6, then n(D) = 6. Hence,
n(D) 6 1
P(D) = = =
n(S) 36 6

4
c. What is the probability that the sum of the numbers which appears face up is
less than or equal to 5?

The possible sums are { 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 } which are not

equally likely.
There is 11 way to get a sum of 2, which is from the pair 11
There are 22 ways to get a sum of 3, which come from the pairs 12, 21
There are 33 ways to get a sum of 4, which come from the pairs 13, 22, 31
There are 44 ways to get a sum of 5, which come from the pairs 14, 23, 32, 41
This tells us that there are 11 + 22 + 33 + 44 = 1100 ways to get a sum which is 5 or
less. Since there are 36 possible pairs, then the probability of getting 5 or
10
less must be
36
More formally, we could present this solution as follows:
If E represents the event that the numbers which land face up add to 5 or less,
then
E = { 11, 12, 13, 14, 21, 22, 23, 31, 32, 41 }
then, using the symbol ≤ for less than or equal to
E(sum ≤ 5) = { 11, 12, 13, 14, 21, 22, 23, 31, 32, 41 }
which means that n(E) = 10 and hence,
n(E) 10
P(E) = =
n(S) 36

d. What is the probability that the sum of the numbers is at least 6.

OOnnee wwaayy ttoo ssoollvvee tthhiiss iiss::

If FF is the event that the sum is at least a 6, then

F = { 15, 16, 24, 25, 26, 33, 34, 35, 36, 42, 43, 44, 45, 46, 51, 52, 53,
54, 55, 56, 61, 62, 63, 64, 65, 66 }
which means that n(F) = 26 and
n(F) 26
P(F) = =
n(S) 36

AAnnootthheerr wwaayy iiss ttoo uussee ccoommpplleemmeennttaarryy sseettss::

Events F = ( sum is at least a 6 ) and E = ( sum is less than or equal to 5 )

10
are Complementary events. This means that P(F) + P(E) = 1 and since P(E) = ,
36
then
10 26
P(F) = 1 − P(E) = 1 − =
36 36

e. Probability that the sum of the numbers is 5, 6, or 7

If HH is the event that the sum is 5, 6, or 7,

then H = { 14, 23, 32, 41, 15, 24, 33, 42, 51, 16, 25, 34, 43, 52, 61 }
n(H) 15
which means that n(Q) = 15 and P(Q) = =
n(S) 36

5
( 6311 ) Introduction to Probability

1. Two fair coins are tossed and each coin lands either heads (h) or
tails (t).
a. What is the set of { equally likely outcomes }?

b. What is the set for the event ( getting one head )?

c. What is the probability P( getting one head )?

d. What is the set for the event { getting at least one head }?

e. What is the probability P( getting at least one head ) ?

6
2. Two die are tossed and the numbers which land face up are then
recorded. Determine
a. the sample space, S, of { equally likely outcomes }

b. the set OddSum = { sum of the numbers face up is odd }

c. the probability of getting an odd sum

d. the set for the event { sum of numbers face up is prime }

e. the probability P( sum of numbers face up is prime )

f. the set for { sum of numbers face up is greater than 6 }

g. the probability for { sum of numbers face up is greater than 6 }

h. the set for { 5 ≤ sum of numbers face up ≤ 10 }

i. the probability P(5 ≤ sum of numbers face up ≤ 10)

7
3. Two dice are tossed and the product of the numbers which land face up
is then recorded.
a. What is the set of possible outcomes?

b. What is the set for { product of numbers which land face up is

odd }

c. What is the probability for getting two numbers whose product is

odd?

d. Probability of getting two numbers whose product is a prime

number

e. Probability of getting two numbers whose product is greater than

6

f. Probability of getting two numbers whose product is greater than

5 and less than 10

4. You randomly select a marble from a bag which has 3 Red, 4 Blue and 5
Green marbles and take note of the color of the marble selected.
a. Provide a set of likely outcomes

b. Is each color equally likely to be selected?

c. Determine the number of ways that Red can be selected.

d. What is the probability of drawing a Red?

e. Determine the number of ways that a Red or a Green can be

selected.

f. What is the probability of drawing a Red or a Green marble?

8
 EXERCISES
( 6314 ) Conditional Probabilities
GLOSSARY

Sometimes the probability of some thing happening depends of whether or

not something else has happened.
For example, the probability of drawing a red card from a standard deck
of cards depends on what other cards have already been drawn from the
deck.
If you drew two cards from a deck of 52 cards, of which 26 are red and 26
are black, then

the probability of "second card is red" given that the "first card is
26
black" would equal
51
since after drawing the first black card, you would have 26 red cards
in a deck that now has 51 cards
the probability of "second card is red" given that the "first card is
25
red" would equal
51
since after drawing the first red card, only 25 red cards would
remain in a deck that now has 51 cards

The event "second card is red" is said to be conditional of the event

"first card is red" or "first card is black"
Symbolically, this is written as P( "second card is red" | "first card
is red" )

For events A and B, the (A | B) refers to the event of A happening given

that event B has happened.

The probability of (A | B) is related to the intersection of A and B via

P(A ∩ B)
P(A | B) =
P(B)

P(A ∩ B) P(A ∩ B)
Note that P(A | B) = and that P(B | A) = and they
P(B) P(A)
are not equal.
The relation between P(A | B) and P(B | A) is described by Bayes
Theorem

P(A ∩ B)
The equation P(A | B) = can be rewritten as
P(B)

P ( A AND B ) = P ( A ) P ( A | B ) or P(A ∩ B) = P(A)P(A | B)

9
EXAMPLES

1. If P(A) = 0.4, P(B) = 0.7 and P(A AND B) = 0.3,

determine (a) P(A | B) (b) P(B | A )

SOLUTION:
P(A AND B) 3
a. P(A | B) = =
P(B) 7
P(A AND B) 3
b. P(B | A) = =
P(A) 4

2. A bag has 10 marbles, of which 3 are red and 7 are blue. Two marbles
are randomly selected, without replacement, from the bag.
The phrase "without replacement" means that no marbles are returned
to the bag.
What is the probability of getting a red marble on the first
selection and a red marble on the second selection?

SOLUTION: We need to determine

P("first marble is red" AND "second marble is red")

which suggests we use

P(R AND R ) = P ( R ) P ( R | R )
11 22 11 22 11

where R = event "second marble is red" and R = event "first marble

2 1
is red",
3
then we know that P(R ) = , since there are initially 3 red and
1 10
7 blue marbles in the bag.
2
and that P(R | R ) = , since after the first red, there are 2
2 1 9
remaining red and 7 blue marbles in the bag.
We now use
P(A AND R ) = P( R ) P( R | R )
1 1 2 1
3 2 6 1
= = =
10 9 90 15
Hence,

1
P("first marble is red" AND "second marble is red") =
15

10
3. What does A | B mean graphically?

ANSWER: The set A | B means the portion of A that lies within B

and the set B | A means the portion of B that lies within A

This suggests that which displayed graphically is

A ∩ B
A | B =
B
A ∩ B
B | A =
A

4. A man and woman have two children. What is the probability that
a. both children are girls?
b. both children are girls, given that one is a girl?
c. both children are girls, given that at least one is a girl?

SOLUTION: If we let A = { gg }, then

a. The probability that both children are girls is 1/4, since
before any conditions are made. the sample space is S = { gg,
gb, bg, bb }
which means that P(A) = n(A) / n(S) = 1/4
b. The probability that both children are girls, given that one is
a girl is 1/2, since the sample space ( given that one child is
a girl ) is S' = { gb, bg }
which means that P(A) = n(A) / n(S') = 1/2
c. The probability that both children are girls, given that at
least one is a girl is 1/3, since the sample space ( given that
at least one child is a girl ) is S" = { gb, bg, gg }
which means that P(A) = n(A) / n(S") = 1/3
P(A AND B)
Solution to (c) using the equation: P(A | B) =
P(B)
We know that A = { gg } and B = { bg, gb, gg } which means
that P(A) = 1/4 and P(B) = 3/4
We also know that A ∩ B = A AND B = { gg } = A which means
that P(A AND B) = P(A)

P(A AND B) P(A) 1/4 1

Therefore P(A | B) = = = =
P(B) P(B) 3/4 3

11
( 6314 ) Conditional Probabilities

1. A random selection of two people is made from a group of 5 males and 5

females.
a. Draw a tree diagram which displays all the possible outcomes.
b. What is the probability that the first person selected is a female and
the second is a male?

2. In two tosses of a die, if A = "first toss is a 3" and B = "second toss is a

4" determine
a. P(A)

b. P(B | A)

c. P(A ∩ B)

d. P(A U B)

3. A bag has 10 marbles, of which 3 are red and 7 are blue.

Two marbles are randomly selected, without replacement, from the bag.
Draw a tree diagram which displays the possible outcomes.

4. A medical clinic has 7 men and 3 women waiting to be seen. If 3 patients are
chosen at random, what is the probability that at least one of these is a
woman?

12
 EXERCISES
( 6315 ) Trees

Trees are a handy way to visualize conditional probabilities.

For example, with the tree diagram

the connections between X and A or B are conditional probabilities.

13
EXAMPLES

1. In a small school of 30 students, with 18 females and 12 males, we

have

of the females: 6 cycle and 12 walk to school

of the males: 9 cycle and 3 walk to school

A Tree Diagram which describes this is

If one of these students were selected at random,

the probability of getting a female who cycles to school

6
is given by P(Female AND Cycle) =
30
which we obtain by looking at the top branch.

the probability of getting a student who cycles given that

the student is a female is given by the conditional
probability
6
P( Cycles | Female ) =
18

The probability of getting a student who is female given that the

student cycles
ie: the probability P( Female | Cycles ) will is described in
the section on Bayes Theorem

14
2. A new test for Dislexia has a reliability which goes as follows:

for those with dislexia, the test shows positive 85% of the
time
for those without dislexia, the test shows positive ( FALSE
POSITIVE ) 5% of the time

Suppose that 10% of the population has dislexia.

a. Draw a tree diagram for this situation.
b. If a person who is dislexic takes the test, what is the
probability that the test will not detect it?
c. If a person who is not dislexic takes the test, what is the
probability that the test will show positive?

SOLUTION:
a. The tree diagram for this situation is

b. The probability that the test will show negative on a person

with dislexia is 1.5%,

since P( n AND D ) = 1.5%

c. The probability that the test will show positive on a person who
is not dislexic is 4.5%

c
since, P( p AND D ) = 4.5%

In the next section we will use Bayes Theorem to calculate the

probabilities P(n) and P(D | n)
for a person who randomly selected from the population.

15
( 6315 ) Trees

1. In one particular school it is found that 70% students walk to school and
30% drive their car.
Of the students who walk, 40% of them exercise by running and 60% swim.
Of the students who drive, 70% of them exercise by running and 30% swim.
Draw a tree diagram for this, the answer the following ..
If a student were randomly selected from this school,
a. what is the probability that this student drives to school and swims?
ie determine P( Drive AND Swim )
b. what is the probability that this student runs for exercise?

2. At a party, a person has three pennies of which one has two heads.
The three pennies are put in a bag and one is randomly selected then tossed
twice.
Draw a tree diagram that describes the possible outcomes

3. The fastfoods store FASTFOOD! has a hiring policy which runs as follows.
Initially all new employees are given ordinary labour tasks,
but at the end of the first three months
40% of them are put into management training
50% of them are kept on the ordinary labour tasks
10% are fired
At the end of the next three months the policy is,
of the management trainees: 30% are promoted to management, 60% are put
to ordinary labour and 10% are fired.
of the ordinary labourers: 10% are promoted to management, 80% kept at
ordinary labour and 10% are fired.
If a new employee is randomly selected, use a tree to help you determine the
probability that
a. this person will be promoted to management
b. this person will end on in ordinary labour
c. this person will be fired

4. Use a tree diagram to represent the tossing of two coins.

16
 EXERCISES
( i6316 ) Bayes Theorem
GLOSSARY
This theorem describes how you can calculate P( B | Ai ) from P( Ai | B ) and vice-versa.

Here is how it works: if a sample space can be divided up into n mutually exclusive sets, Ai then

Ai ∩ Aj = Ø whenever i ≠ j and

S = A1 + A2 + .. + An and therefore

P(S) = P( A1 ) + P( A2 ) + .. + P( An ) = 1

then P( Ai ) P( B | Ai ) = P( B ) P( Ai | B ) for i = 1, 2, .. n

Confining ourselves to n = 2: the relationships

P(A1) P(B | A1) = P(B) P(A1 | B)

P(A1) P(B | A1) = P(B)P(A1 | B)

P(B) = P(A1) P(B | A1) + P(A2) P(B | A2)

TREE INVERSE TREE

The TREE allow you to calculate things like P(A1 | B) and P(A2 | B)
The INVERSE TREE allows you to calculate things like P(B | A1)

17
EXAMPLES

1. A small town, called WidgetVille, has two factories which produces widgets.
Every day, Factory 1 produces 7 Red and 8 Blue widgets and Factory 2 produces 5 Red and 4 Blue
widgets.
Suppose you are walking down the street in WidgetVille and come upon a widget.
What is the probability that this widget was produced by Factory 1 given that it is red?

Solution: If we
R = Red widget and F1 = Factory 1 ..
F1 ( 7 R, 8 B ) represent factory 1 with its 7 Red and 8 Blue widgets
F2 ( 5 R, 4 B ) represent factory 1 with its 5 Red and 4 Blue widgets
P( F1 | R ) = probability of it being factory 1 given that the widget is Red
P( R | F1 ) = probability of getting a Red widget given that it was produced by factory 1
We need to determine P( F1 | R )

The equation to use is: P( F1 AND R ) = P( F1 ) P( R | F1 ) = P( R ) P( F1 | R )

We know that WidgetVille produces 24 widgets a day and that of these factory I produces 15.
15 7
Hence we know that P( F1 ) = 24 and P( R | F1 ) = 15

The equation P( F1 ) P( R | F1 ) = P( R ) P( F1 | R )

P( F1 )P( R | F1 )
can rearranged to give P( F1 | R ) = P(R)

15 7 7
We know the numerator P( F1 ) P( R | F1 ) = 24 15 = 24
1
We know the denominator P( R ) = 2 , since WidgetVille produces 24 widgets a day and 12 are red.
7 1 7
We conclude that P( F1 | R ) = 24 ÷ 2 = 12

18
 1
We could also show that P(R) = 2 in a number of other ways.
1
A. We could use P( R ) = P( F1 ) P( R | F1 ) + P( F2 ) P( R | F2 ) = 2
which we know since
15 7 9 5
P( F1 ) = 24 P( R | F1 ) = 15 P( F2 ) = 24 P( R | F2 ) = 9
15 7 9 5 12
and therefore P( R ) = 24 15 + 24 9 = 24

B. We could also find P(R) from

which reveals that

P( R AND F1 ) = P( F1 ) P( R | F1 )
P( R AND F2 ) = P( F2 ) P( R | F2 )
and that P(R) can be obtained in either of these ways
P( R ) = P( F1 ) P( R | F1 ) + P( F2 ) P( R | F2 )
P( R ) = P( R AND F1 ) + P( R AND F2 )
Therefore P( R )
= P( R AND F1 ) + P( R AND F2 )
7 5
= 24 + 24
12
= 24
So now we know P(R) as well as P(F1 | R) you can use similar techniques to get
other quantities such as P(F2 | R), P(B), P(F1 | B) and P(F2 | B) and from this get

the inverse tree

19
2. In a small school of 30 students, with 18 females and 12 males
of the females: 6 cycle and 12 walk to school
of the males: 9 cycle and 3 walk to school
What is the probability of getting a student who is female given that the student cycles to school?

SOLUTION: We are looking for P( Female | Cycles )

We will use the tree

as well as

P( Cycle ) P( Female | Cycle ) = P( Female ) P( Cycle | Female )

to get

P( Cycle ) = P ( Female who Cycles ) + P( Male who Cycles )

6 9
= 30 + 30
15
= 30

From the tree, we see that

18 6
P( Female ) = 30 and P( Cycle | Female ) = 18
which tells you that
P( Female ) P( Cycle | Female ) 2
P( Female | Cycle ) = P( Cycle ) = 5

20
3. A new test for Dislexia has a reliability which goes as follows.
for those with dislexia, the test shows positive 85% of the time
for those without dislexia, the test shows positive ( FALSE POSITIVE ) 5% of the time
If 10% of the population has dislexia and a person has tested negative for dislexia, what is the
probability that
this person has dislexia?
this person does not have dislexia?

Solution: We are looking for P( has Dislexia | tested negative ) and P ( does not have Dislexia |
tested negative )
We will use the diagram to assist us

We first need to determine P( D | n ) for which we will use is: P( n ) P( D | n ) = P( D ) P( n | D )

where
P( n ) = 0.015 + 0.855 = 0.87
P( D ) = 0.1
P( n | D ) = 0.15
P( D ) P( n | D ) 0.1 × 0.15 1
which gives P( D | n ) = P( n ) = 0.87 = 58
57
The probability P( Dc | n ) must be 58 which we can deduce from P( D | n ) + P( Dc | n ) = 1

P( Dc AND n ) 0.855 57
We could also deduce this from P( Dc | n ) = P( n ) = 0.87 = 58

21
( 6316 ) Bayes Theorem

For each of the following, it is expected you will draw a tree diagram which
supports your work.

1. A town, called MarblesVille, has two factories, 1 and 2, which produces

marbles.
Each day, factory 1 produces 8 Red and 12 Blue marbles and factory 2
produces 11 Red and 9 Blue marbles.
One day, while visiting MarblesVille, you find a marble — which is blue.
What is the probability that this marble was produced by factory 1?

2. You have two urns, labeled A and B.

Urn A has 9 Red and 3 Green marbles and Urn B have 7 Red and 8 Green
marbles.
An Urn is selected at random and a marble is removed.
a. what is the probability of selecting a Green marble?

b. what is the probability of this Green marble coming from Urn A?

3. A factory produces widgets with two machines. Machine A produces 70% of all
the widgets,
and of the factory widgets 30% of machine A widgets and 20% of machine B are
defective.
A widget is found and it turns out to be defective.
a. What is the probability of getting a defective widget?

b. What is the probability that this defective widget was produced by

machine B?

4. A test reads positive 99% of the time for a disease on a person who actually
has this disease.
However, 98% of the time, the test reads negative when a person does not
have the disease.
If 1% of the population has this disease, and a randomly selected person is
tested positive for this disease
a. what is the probability that the test will read positive?

b. what is the probability that this person actually has this disease?

22
5. You have two coins. One is fair and the other has a probability of 0.8 of
coming up heads.
One of these coins is randomly selected and then tossed.
a. What is the probability that it will come up heads?

b. What is the probability that the fair coin was tossed if it came up
heads?

6. MarblesVille has produced a new marble factory which has three machines, 1,
2 and 3, which produce marbles.
Each day,
machine 1 produces 3 white and 5 blue marbles
machine 2 produces 4 white and 2 blue marbles
machine 3 produces 6 white and 4 blue marbles
a. Draw a Venn diagram which displays the daily marbles produced by each
of the three machines
b. Draw a Tree diagram which displays the daily marbles produced by each
of the three machines
keeping in mind that the probability of what each machine produces is
determined by their daily output, as well as
the conditional probabilities that the marble will be of a specific
color given that it was produced by a certain machine.
c. If a marble, that is produced by this factory, is selected at random,
what is the probability that
i. it will be a White marble
ii. it will be a Blue marble
d. Draw an inverse tree diagram which displays the probability that the
machine
will be produced by certain machine given that it is a specific color.
e. One day, while visiting this marble factory, you come upon a blue
marble.
What is the probability that this marble was produced by machine 2?

7. At a party, a person has three pennies of which one has two heads.
The three pennies are put in a bag and one is randomly selected then tossed
twice.
If this penny comes up heads twice, what is the probability that this penny
is fake?
Draw a tree diagram which supports your answer.

23
( 6318 ) Poker Hands

A standard deck of playing cards has 52 cards which consists of four

suits { Spades, Clubs, Hearts, Diamonds }
with thirteen cards in each suit.

A ♠ 2 ♠ 3 ♠ 4 ♠ 5 ♠ 6 ♠ 7 ♠ 8 ♠ 9 ♠ 10 ♠ J ♠ Q ♠ K ♠

A ♥ 2 ♥ 3 ♥ 4 ♥ 5 ♥ 6 ♥ 7 ♥ 8 ♥ 9 ♥ 10 ♥ J ♥ Q ♥ K ♥

A ♣ 2 ♣ 3 ♣ 4 ♣ 5 ♣ 6 ♣ 7 ♣ 8 ♣ 9 ♣ 10 ♣ J ♣ Q ♣ K ♣

A ♦ 2 ♦ 3 ♦ 4 ♦ 5 ♦ 6 ♦ 7 ♦ 8 ♦ 9 ♦ 10 ♦ J ♦ Q ♦ K ♦

If a deck of such cards were shuffled and you were dealt five cards,
verify that the probability of being dealt

a. four of a kind is approximately 0.00024

b. a flush, ( all of the same suit ) is approximately 0.002

c. a full house ( 2 of a kind and 3 of a kind ) is approximately 0.0014

d. a straight { A|2|3|4|5, 2|3|4|5|6, . . ., 9|10|J|Q|K, 10|J|Q|K|A } is

approximately 0.0039

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( 6319 ) Open Ended Questions

1. You have two coins. One coin has 2 tails and the other has a heads and a tails.
If you selected one coin at random and flipped it, what is the probability that
it will land heads up?

2. The outside of a solid white cube is painted black and then cut into 64 equal
cubes.
If you scattered these cubes on the floor and randomly selected one of them,
what is the probability that the cube you selected would have a black side
facing up?

3. In a school with 128 students, 45 of the students have a cat, 75 have a dog and
34 have both a cat and a dog.
If a student is randomly selected, what is the probability that
a. the student has a cat or a dog?
b. the student has neither a cat or a dog?

4. In a class of 24 students, 12 students are Chinese, 8 students are Buddists and

9 are neither Chinese nor Buddist.
If a student is randomly selected from this class, what is the probability that
a. the student is Chinese?
b. the student is a Buddist?
c. the student is a Buddist or is Chinese?
d. the student is a Chinese Buddist?

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5. A school has 200 students of whom 90 are male. It is known that 40% of the
students walk to school.
If a student is selected at random from this school, what is the probability
that this student
a. is a male or a student who walks to school?
b. is a female or a student who does not walk school?

6. A high school band consists of 22 students of whom 8 are grade 10 students, 7

are grade 11 students and the remainder are grade 12 students. Of these students
there are 3 male students in grade 10, 4 in grade 11 and 5 in grade 12.
If a student is selected at random from this band, determine the probability
that this student
a. is a female in grade 10
b. is a female in grade 11
c. is a female in grade 12
d. is a male in grade 10
e. is a male in grade 11
f. is a male in grade 12
g. is a female or a male

7. A 6 sided die ( which is one of a pair of dice ) is tossed 10 times.

a. What are the probabilities that a SIX will appear 0, 1, 2, 3, .. , 7, 8, 9,
10 times ?
b. What are the probabilities that a SIX will appear any of { 0, 1, 2, .. 8,
9, 10 } times ?
c. What is the probability that a SIX will appear at least once ?
d. What is the probability that a SIX will appear at most three times ?

8. Suppose that 15% of the population is left-handed. Find the probability that in
a group of 50 individuals there will be
a. at most 10 left-handers
b. at least 5 left-handers
c. between 3 and 5 left-handers inclusive
d. exactly 5 left-handers
You may want to use a Spread-Sheet to solve this.

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( 631 ) ASSIGNMENT

1. Toss a pair of 6-sided die and let

A = event that the sum of the die is 6
B = event that the sum of the die is prime { 2, 3, 5, 7, 11 }
C = event that doubles are rolled
a. Create the sets for
S, A, B, C, A U B, A ∩ B, A U C, A ∩ C
b. Determine the sizes
n(S), n(A), n(B), n(C), n(A U B), n(A ∩ B), n(A U C), n(A ∩ C)
c. Determine the probabilities
P(A), P(B), P(C), P(A U B), P(A ∩ B), P(A U C), P(A ∩ C)
d. Verify that P(A U B) + P(A ∩ B) = P(A) + P(B)
e. Verify that P(A U C) + P(A ∩ C) = P(A) + P(C)

2. A barn has 7 horses, 3 cows, 10 goats, 3 hens, and 2 ducks.

If an animal is randomly selected from this barn, determine the
probability that this animal is
a. a goat
b. a duck
c. a goat or a duck

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3. A Lupis test reads positive 100% of the time for those who actually
have Lupis and 5% for those who do not.
If 1% of the population has this disease, and a randomly selected
person is tested positive for Lupis
a. what is the probability that the test will read positive?

b. what is the probability that this person will have Lupis given
that the test reads positive?

c. what is the probability that this person will not have Lupis
given that the test reads positive?

Draw a tree to support your work.

4. A standard deck of playing cards, consists of 52 cards which consists

of
{ Ace, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, Jack, Queen, King }
in each of four suits { Spades, Clubs, Hearts, Diamonds }.
If such a deck of cards were shuffled and you were dealt five cards,
a. determine the probability of getting three Kings

b. determine the probability of getting four Kings

5. A bag has 7 Red and 3 Blue balls. Five are randomly selected without
replacement.
Determine the probability of selecting
a. 2 Red balls

b. 4 Red balls

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