VIGIL HOME SECURITY

-Cox Proportional Hazard Model

Submitted By:

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 Gaurav Chaturvedi (Enroll ID: 6624736)
Exchange Student MBA, Jindal Global Business School, Indi

Vigil Home Security Case Analysis

This case analysis serves to find the best offer out of 15 offerings to a customer who is inclined to terminate
her subscription for security services.

Software Used:
SPSS/Microsoft Excel 2016

The study period as given in the case has been taken as 6 months and statistical analysis- Cox Proportional
Hazard Regression has been carried out to find out the hazard ratio and cumulative survival rates depending
upon the 15 offers as covariates.

GET DATA
/TYPE=XLSX
/FILE='C:\Users\gaura\Desktop\UV6671-XLS-ENG Original.xlsx'
/SHEET=name 'Exhibit 2'
/CELLRANGE=FULL
/READNAMES=ON
/DATATYPEMIN PERCENTAGE=95.0
/HIDDEN IGNORE=YES.
EXECUTE.
DATASET NAME DataSet1 WINDOW=FRONT.
GET
FILE='C:\Program Files\IBM\SPSS\Statistics\24\Samples\English\telco.sav'.
DATASET NAME DataSet2 WINDOW=FRONT.
DATASET ACTIVATE DataSet1.
COXREG tenure
/STATUS=Churn(1)
/PATTERN BY Offer
/CONTRAST (Offer)=Indicator
/METHOD=ENTER Offer
/PLOT SURVIVAL HAZARDS
/PRINT=CI(95)
/CRITERIA=PIN(.05) POUT(.10) ITERATE(20).

Cox Regression

Notes

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 Output Created 20-NOV-2017 08:14:52
Comments
Input Active Dataset DataSet1
Filter <none>
Weight <none>
Split File <none>
N of Rows in Working Data 45022
File
Missing Value Handling Definition of Missing User-defined missing values
are treated as missing.
Syntax COXREG tenure
/STATUS=Churn(1)
/PATTERN BY Offer
/CONTRAST
(Offer)=Indicator
/METHOD=ENTER Offer
/PLOT SURVIVAL
HAZARDS
/PRINT=CI(95)
/CRITERIA=PIN(.05)
POUT(.10) ITERATE(20).
Resources Processor Time 00:00:01.20
Elapsed Time 00:00:00.67

[DataSet1]

Case Processing Summary

N Percent
Cases available in analysis Eventa 9595 21.3%
Censored 35422 78.7%
Total 45017 100.0%
Cases dropped Cases with missing values 0.0% 0.0%
Cases with negative time 0 0.0%
Censored cases before the 0 0.0%
earliest event in a stratum
Total 0 0.0%

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 Total 45017 100.0%

a. Dependent Variable: Months to Churn

In the six month period from December to May, a total of 9595 individual have terminated there services in

spite of the 15 offers, rest 35422 persons have been censored and further analysis can be done on them on

the basis of exhibit 3 but it is out of the scope of this case analysis.

A major problem in the case faced by us was the unavailability of the explanation of the numbers more

than 6. A blank data was supposed to be a subsequent 9 months subscription but the significance of

number more than 10 was not given. Anyway we consider it to be the 10th month from the save date

and so on.

Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficientsa

Change From
Previous
-2 Log Overall (score) Change From Previous Step Block
Likelihood Chi-square Df Sig. Chi-square df Sig. Chi-square
201453.750 2015.180 14 .000 2133.625 14 .000 2133.625

Variables in the Equation

95.0% CI for Exp(B)
B SE Wald df Sig. Exp(B) Lower Upper
Offer 1815.190 14 .000
Offer(1) -1.422 .080 312.987 1 .000 .241 .206 .282
Offer(2) -1.473 .056 692.257 1 .000 .229 .205 .256
Offer(3) -1.540 .067 524.302 1 .000 .214 .188 .245
Offer(4) -1.713 .096 315.607 1 .000 .180 .149 .218
Offer(5) -.331 .035 90.218 1 .000 .718 .671 .769
Offer(6) -.251 .033 58.533 1 .000 .778 .729 .829
Offer(7) -1.045 .077 185.626 1 .000 .352 .303 .409
Offer(8) -.696 .053 171.774 1 .000 .498 .449 .553
Offer(9) -.507 .054 88.426 1 .000 .602 .542 .670
Offer(10) -.557 .077 51.756 1 .000 .573 .492 .667
Offer(11) -.590 .043 188.535 1 .000 .555 .510 .603

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 Offer(12) -.972 .065 220.344 1 .000 .378 .333 .430
Offer(13) -1.030 .066 243.418 1 .000 .357 .314 .406
Offer(14) -1.060 .097 119.976 1 .000 .346 .286 .419

All the B are negative and significant. Variables with positive coefficients (the B values) are associated with increased

hazard and decreased survival times, i.e. as the predictor increases the hazard of the event increases and the predicted

survival duration decreases. Negative coefficients indicate decreased hazard and increased survival times. The most

negative coefficient is of the offer 4 or Offer D and also exp Beta is the lowest at 0.180 . This signifies that offer 4 has the

lowest Hazard rate and the highest survival rate. We can observe the same from the below Hazard and Survival functions

graphs.

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