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PwC Strategy

The UK “premium lifestyle”


clothing, footwear and
accessories market

February 2016
Important notice

This document has been made publicly available for the purposes of general guidance on matters of interest only,
and does not constitute professional advice. You should not act upon the information contained in this document
without obtaining specific professional advice.
Information in this document is obtained or derived from a variety of sources. PwC has not sought to establish the
reliability of those sources or verify all of the information so provided. No representation or warranty of any kind
(whether express or implied) is given by PwC to any person as to the accuracy or completeness of the report, and,
to the extent permitted by law, PwC, its members, employees and agents do not accept or assume any liability,
responsibility or duty of care for any consequences of anyone else acting, or refraining to act, in reliance on the
information contained in this document or for any decision based on it.

The UK “premium lifestyle” market February 2016


PwC 2
The UK “premium lifestyle” clothing, footwear and accessories market

• The UK “premium lifestyle” segment of the clothing, footwear and accessories market contains
brands characterised by a strong brand ethos that can be stretched across multiple product
categories and channels, generating customer affinity and loyalty

• The “premium lifestyle” market was estimated to be worth c.£2.7bn in 2014, and has been
outperforming the overall clothing, footwear and accessories market in the UK

• PwC has modelled growth in the segment of 6.6% p.a. between 2014 and 2020…

• …with growth likely to be driven by a number of factors, including:

– Ongoing polarisation in the UK clothing market both in terms of price and fashion

– The shift to more casual attire, both at work, but also at more formal ‘dress-up’ events

– Consumers’ desires for brands to provide a sense of identity and belonging

– Growth of online shopping and social media

– New international entrants, as well as smaller UK brands scaling

The UK “premium lifestyle” market February 2016


PwC 3
The UK clothing, footwear and accessories market is currently estimated
to be worth c.£50bn and is forecast to grow at c.4.5% p.a. between 2015
and 2020
UK clothing, footwear and accessories market, 2005-2020 (nominal) CAGR

Forecast ’05-’08 ‘08-’09 ‘09-’15 ‘15-’20


62.9
Total 3.1% (0.7%) 3.1% 4.5%
60.1
3.5
60
57.4
3.4 Accessories 6.0% 3.1% 2.6% 3.6%
54.7
3.3
52.4 9.1
3.2 Footwear 2.6% (1.8%) 2.6% 3.4%
50.4 8.8
50 48.6 3.0
47.2 8.5
2.9 Childrenswear
46.1 2.9 8.2 6.0 2.4% (0.1%) 2.1% 2.6%
45.0
43.8 2.8 7.9 5.8
42.2 2.7
41.3 41.9 2.7 7.7 Menswear
2.6 7.5 5.7 2.2% (1.3%) 3.1% 5.3%
39.8 2.4
40 38.5 2.3 2.5 7.3 5.5
7.2
2.2 7.0 5.4 Womenswear
2.1 6.8 5.3 14.0 3.5% (0.6%) 3.6% 5.0%
6.6 6.7 6.6 5.1
5.0 13.3
6.3 4.9
6.2 4.8 12.6
£bn

4.7 11.9 • The overall clothing, footwear and accessories market


30 4.5 4.6 4.6 11.3
4.3
4.4
10.4
10.8 has grown steadily between 2009 and 2015, with
9.9 10.1 menswear and womenswear outperforming other
9.4 9.7
9.0 9.1 9.0 categories
8.7
20
8.5 • The market is forecast to grow at an increased rate,
driven primarily by volume growth
30.3 – Verdict’s 2015-2020 forecast growth of 4.5% p.a.
28.8
24.7 25.9 27.3 for the overall market is ahead of other sources,
23.7
10 20.2 20.8 21.4 22.0 22.8 Euromonitor (2.2% p.a.) and Mintel1 (3.7% p.a.)
18.3 18.9 19.3 19.2
17.4 • Menswear expected to outgrow other segments of the
market, driven by brands and retailers’ investment in
their menswear offering
0 • Niche ranges are expected to drive incremental
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 growth in womenswear, including plus-size, petite,
tall and maternity clothing
Note: Numbers may not add up due to rounding 1Mintel market forecasts exclude footwear
Source: Verdict (2015), Euromonitor (2016), Mintel (2015)

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PwC 4
The online channel is expected to continue to take share from traditional
channels and is forecast to account for c.29% of the market by 2020

The UK clothing, accessories and footwear market has


However, the proportion of online sales has risen
historically been dominated by clothing specialists, with
significantly, and is expected to rise to 29% by 2020
limited change in channel mix expected
UK clothing, footwear and accessories market channel mix, 2010-2020 UK clothing, footwear and accessories market channel mix,
2010-2020
Forecast Forecast
£44bn £50bn £63bn £44bn £50bn £63bn
100% 100%
4.5% 3.6% 3.2%
Other 9.3%
7.4% 7.4% 8.5%
90% 90% 20.0%
8.0% 8.9% 28.8%
9.9%
80% Department 80% Online
8.5% 8.7% stores
9.7%
70% 70%

Grocers Offline

% of total sales
% of total sales

60% 60%

50% 50%
General 90.7%
merchandisers
40% 40% 80.0%
71.6% 71.4% 68.7% 71.2%
30% Specialists 30%

20% 20%

10% 10%

0% 0%
2010 2015 2020 2010 2015 2020
Note: “Other” captures sales for variety stores, second hand stores and street markets
Source: Verdict (2015)

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PwC 5
Market growth is expected to be driven by rising disposable income,
improving consumer confidence and growth in consumer sub-segments

UK clothing, footwear and accessories market drivers Key: Negative Positive

Drivers of the clothing, footwear and accessories market value

Rising disposable
Shift towards spending Clothing retailer
income and consumer Clothing price deflation
on experiences innovation
confidence
• The clothing market suffered a • While consumer confidence and • Following a period of high • UK high street retailers are
decline during the recession but discretionary spending continue clothing inflation (2010-12), looking for new sources of
has since recovered to increase, consumers are price growth has slowed growth including:
looking to focus their spending
• The UK macro-economic • Forecast growth in the clothing - New categories
more on experiences (e.g.
outlook appears positive, with and footwear market is
holidays) rather than shopping - New fascias
rising disposable incomes and primarily expected to be volume
consumer confidence driving • In addition, consumers driven, with deflation expected - New concepts
discretionary spending, which prioritising spending on the from 2018 onwards, driven by
- New channels
should support further growth home (e.g. paying down lower supply chain costs and
in spend on clothing, footwear mortgages, home discounting by mass market - New partnerships
and accessories improvements) brands
• Retailers are therefore
• This is likely to put pressure on generating more awareness to
spending on clothing, footwear drive footfall and traffic, which
and accessories is growing the overall market
Historical
impact
(12-15)

Future
impact
(15-20)

The UK “premium lifestyle” market February 2016


PwC 6
Rising disposable income and
consumer confidence

Forecast growth of the UK economy and increased consumer confidence


supports growth in the market going forward

Historically, the UK clothing, accessories and footwear


Consumer confidence has reached pre-recessionary levels
market has moved in line with the economy

Nominal GDP vs. Nominal consumer spending vs. UK Monthly consumer confidence index, 2005 (Jan) - 2016 (Jan)
Clothing, accessories and footwear market, 2006-2020 10
Nominal GDP
5
Nominal Consumer Spending Forecast

UK clothing, accessories and 0


7%
footwear

6% (5)

Consumer confidence index


5%
(10)
4%
(15)
Y-o-Y change (%)

3%

2% (20)

1% (25)

0%
(30)
(1%)
(35)
(2%)

(3%) (40)
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Source: Verdict (2015), ONS (2015), HM Treasury (2015), GfK (2016)

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Shift towards spending
on experiences

While consumer confidence and discretionary spending continue to


increase, consumers are looking to focus their spending more on
experiences, which may put pressure on clothing spend
If your financial situation improves, which of the following categories
would you be most likely to spend more on? (n=2,051)
• During the recession consumers cut
Savings and investments 18%
back on leisure spend, but this spend
Main holiday 17%
is now a priority

Improving home 11% • This has been supported by


technological developments that have
Credit card / loan repayment 7%
improved consumers’ access to
Other leisure travel 6% experiences (e.g. the growth of the
sharing economy)
Grocery shopping 4%
- Platforms such as AirBnB
Mortgage repayments 4%
(holidays), Uber (transport), Just
Clothing, shoes, accessories 4% Eat (food delivery) and Netflix
(entertainment) have made spend
Technology 4% on entertainment easier and in
Transport
Financial obligations some cases more affordable
3%
Experiences

‘Big ticket items’ 3%


Products • The growth of social media sites (e.g.
Life necessities
Facebook, Instagram and Snapchat)
Eating out 3% has allowed consumers to share their
Going out' 2%
experiences more widely, in turn
creating more demand for experience
Baby / children related expenditure 2% to share

Source: PwC Survey – Annual Retail Briefing (Dec, 2015), Press

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PwC 8
Clothing price deflation

Market growth is primarily expected to be volume driven, with deflation


expected from 2018 onwards

UK clothing, accessories and footwear market growth, by price and volume, 2005-2020 Forecast

7%
Inflation driven by rising input
6% costs and manufacturing cost
increases in China

5%

4%

3%
Y-o-Y growth (%)

2%

1%

0%

(1%)

(2%)
Lower inflation and eventual
deflation driven by declining
(3%) supply chain costs and discounting
by mass market brands
(4%)
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Total market growth Inflation/deflation Volume

Source: Verdict (2015)

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PwC 9
Clothing retailer innovation

UK high street retailers are looking to innovate their proposition as they


look for new sources of growth

Overview of UK high street retailers’ strategies to drive growth

Retailers are Activewear


extending into Men's Beauty
new categories…

…opening new
fascias…

John Lewis at the


Jigsaw Duke St. Oasis flagship store in
…developing Bullring in Birmingham
Emporium combines Tottenham Court Road
features a coffee shop,
new concepts… food emporium and
shopping, coffee and has a café and beauty
culture station
beauty salon

…entering new Launched in Announced the openings of 6 Virtual pop-up “shopping walls”
Nordstrom and concessions in John Lewis after testing that consumers can engage with
channels… Selfridges the concept with a pop up store via Window Shopping app

…and forming Rihanna designed two Kate Moss has designed Launch of Burberry
collections inspired by multiple collections for
new her personal style for Top Shop, with the first
dedicated music channel
on Apple streaming
partnerships River Island in 2007

Source: Trade Press, Retail Week, Verdict

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PwC 10
The “premium lifestyle” segment of the market contains brands
characterised by a strong brand ethos that can be stretched across multiple
product categories and channels, generating customer affinity and loyalty
Overview of the UK “premium lifestyle” segment
Illustrative
Strong brand ethos
Premium lifestyle brands are
Accessories and unified by a distinctive brand
Clothing heritage Single product heritage and signature handwriting that
homeware heritage
is recognised by customers

Multiple product categories


and channels
The strong brand ethos enables
premium lifestyle brands to
stretch across multiple
categories (e.g. menswear,
womenswear, childrenswear,
footwear, accessories, home)
and multiple channels (e.g.
stores, 3rd party channels,
events)

Customer affinity
and loyalty
Premium lifestyle brands are
front of mind, featuring high on
consumers’ shopping repertoire.
As a result, customers remain
loyal, shopping with the brand
for many years
Source: Company Websites

The UK “premium lifestyle” market February 2016


PwC 11
The UK “premium lifestyle” clothing market was estimated to be worth
c.£2.7bn in 2014, and has been increasing market share of the overall
clothing, accessories and footwear market
PwC's estimate of the UK "premium lifestyle" clothing market,
2009-2014 Segment sizing methodology:
• PwC has estimated the size of the UK premium lifestyle
3.0 segment based on the ‘brand sales’ of 21 selected brands:
CAGR 13.8% 2.7

2.5
2.5
2.3 Estimated
0.7 wholesale
2.0 revenue
0.7 with retail
2.0
UK brand sales (£ bn)

0.6 markup
1.8
0.6 • For clothing specialists: Given the broad mix of
operating models across these players, where some brands
1.5 1.4 0.5
Retail
have a large wholesale presence, PwC has estimated ‘brand
revenue sales’ to give a more realistic size for the overall segment at
0.4
consumer prices
1.0
1.9
1.8 – A retail multiple of 2.5 (based on PwC experience)
1.6
1.4 has been applied to the wholesale revenue of
1.3 selected brands to estimate the brand sales
0.5 1.0
– Where there is no public information on
wholesale revenue, estimates have been applied
0 • For non-clothing specialists: Given that these brands
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
operate in the premium lifestyle segment, including Cath
3.3% 4.0% 4.5% 4.9% 5.2% 5.5% Kidston, Oliver Bonas and Laura Ashley, we have
estimated the share of clothing to size a like-for-like
Premium lifestyle as a % of UK clothing, footwear & accessories market
market

Note: Numbers may not add up due to rounding


Source: Verdict, Company Accounts, PwC Analysis

The UK “premium lifestyle” market February 2016


PwC 12
PwC has modelled growth in the “premium lifestyle” segment of 6.6% p.a.
between 2014 and 2020, with a slower growth rate expected as the market
evolves…
UK "premium lifestyle" clothing market forecast, 2009-2020
Forecast

4.0 CAGR 6.6% 3.9


3.7
3.5
3.5 3.3
3.1
3.0 CAGR 13.8% 2.9
2.7
UK brand sales (£ bn)

2.5
2.5
2.3
2.0
2.0
1.8

1.5 1.4

1.0

0.5

0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

YoY Growth 18.5% 25.7% 15.2% 11.5% 8.9% 8.6% 8.0% 7.4% 6.9% 6.6% 5.7% 4.8%

Premium lifestyle
as a % of UK 3.3% 4.0% 4.5% 4.9% 5.2% 5.5% 5.7% 5.9% 6.0% 6.1% 6.2% 6.2%
clothing
Source: Verdict, Company Accounts, PwC Analysis

The UK “premium lifestyle” market February 2016


PwC 13
…driven by consumers’ attitudes towards clothing and brands’ ability to
engage with their customers

UK “premium lifestyle” market drivers Key: Negative Positive

“Premium lifestyle” market value

Market
Casualisation Brand affinity Brand engagement New entrants
polarisation

• The performance of mid- • The premium lifestyle • Consumers are • The growth of online • A number of US and
market retailers (e.g. market has benefitted increasingly looking shopping and social European retailers are
M&S) has been impacted from the shift to more towards brands to media and innovation on beginning to enter the UK
by the outperformance of casual attire, both at provide a sense of in-store experience have market (e.g. Lululemon,
value specialists (e.g. work, but also at more identity and belonging enabled brands to build Tory Burch, Kate Spade)
H&M and Primark) formal ‘dress-up’ events • This has contributed to awareness and engage • Smaller UK brands are
• Similarly, luxury brands • This has expanded the the growth of premium with their customers also scaling quickly (e.g.
have continued to gain range of occasions where lifestyle brands, with more regularly. This is Rapha, Oliver Bonas)
share, as consumers looks premium lifestyle brands’ consumers buying into a important for premium • This is likely to grow the
to purchase investment clothing is appropriate brand with a particular lifestyle brands, where premium lifestyle market
pieces • Casualisation is set to heritage/theme, and brand identity is key further
• This polarisation has continue, with casualwear therefore buying products • This has helped to
created a gap for high becoming acceptable from across multiple establish premium
quality yet affordable across more occasions categories, which is likely lifestyle as a distinct
brands, which is likely to to continue segment in the clothing
continue, albeit at a market and is likely to
slightly slower rate continue to do so
Historical
impact
(12-15)

Future
impact
(15-20)

The UK “premium lifestyle” market February 2016


PwC 14
Market polarisation

There is ongoing polarisation in the UK clothing market both in terms of


price and fashion, which has supported the growth of the premium lifestyle
segment
Polarisation in price and fashion has created a gap in the
...which has allowed premium lifestyle brands to grow,
market as mid-market retailers focus more on value and
establishing this as a distinct segment
fashion offers...
Brand positioning of selected clothing brands ILLUSTRATIVE UK Revenue growth of selected clothing retailers1,
2012-14
Premium Premium lifestyle
40%
Fashion-led
35% 33%
Value
30% Mid-market
25% 23%
Mid-market 20% 18%
Polarisation in price

brands

CAGR 12-14
14%
15%
Fast 11% 10% 10%
fashion/ 10% 8%
6% 5%
fashion-led Lifestyle 4%
5% 3%

0%

(5%) (1%) (2%)

(10%)
(10%)
(15%)

H&M

BHS
White Stuff

Next

Boden
Fat Face

Zara

Gap

M&S
Seasalt

Joules

Primark

Crew

French Connection
Ted Baker

Value
Polarisation in fashion

Note: 1CAGR’s shown reflect financial calendar years; GAP/French Connection revenues are Europe segment (no further split available), MS revenue is UK General Merchandise revenue only
Source: Company accounts, Annual reports

The UK “premium lifestyle” market February 2016


PwC 15
Brand affinity

UK “premium lifestyle” brands have been able to stretch across categories,


benefitting from customer affinity, to drive incremental sales

Examples of “premium lifestyle” brands’ stretch across categories ILLUSTRATIVE TIMELINE

Childrenswear Services (e.g.


and footwear Homeware Jewellery haircuts, shaving)

Mens and Fragrances and Electronics Bicycles


womenswear sunglasses

Books and
Accessories photographs Holidays Coffee shops

Sportswear Skincare Bicycle hire

Source: Retail Week, Company websites, Trade press

The UK “premium lifestyle” market February 2016


PwC 16
Brand engagement

Premium lifestyle brands have benefitted from the growth of internet


shopping and social media, which has helped them to build customer
engagement, loyalty and affinity online
A number of premium lifestyle
…as well as building engagement …and being featured on
brands are using content on their
across social media platforms… fashion and lifestyle blogs
website to inspire customers…

Source: Company websites, Trade press

The UK “premium lifestyle” market February 2016


PwC 17
New entrants

New premium lifestyle entrants, and the growth of smaller brands, is likely
to support volume growth

Large international premium lifestyle brands Smaller UK brands have started to scale quickly,
have begun to enter the UK market… growing market volumes

Small UK brands revenue and store roll out, 2012-2014


• Lululemon is a leading US lifestyle brands
with an ethos focused on self-improvement 2012 2013 2014
and experiences to reach personal goals. Yoga
remains at the core of the brand
“We are
Lululemon

• The company entered the UK in 2012 with a passionate 25


CAGR
CAGR
London store 12.8%
about 21 23.1%
• The brand now has five stores in London and sweating 20
20

one in Edinburgh, as well as four showrooms every day 16

Revenue (£m)
15
(Glasgow, Manchester, Bath, Guildford) and we 15 13
want the
• 28 UK partners offer products in gyms, yoga world to 10 9
studios and wellness centres know it”
5

• J.Crew is an American lifestyle brand that 0


stands for the perfect mix of classic styles 21 20

and bold fashion forward pieces 16 15


J. Crew

“We side 13 9
• First entered the UK market in 2013 with a with Oliver Bonas Rapha
launch in London style Store
• Higher pricing compared to US over Operates through pop-up stores
Roll 11 23
and online only
fashion” 12-14
• 7 stores in the London area

Source: Company websites, Company accounts

The UK “premium lifestyle” market February 2016


PwC 18
Appendix

The UK “premium lifestyle” market February 2016


PwC 19
PwC believes the “premium lifestyle” market will continue to outperform
the overall clothing, footwear and accessories market in the UK

Forecast market growth rates, 2014-2020 (CAGR p.a.)


Forecast methodology

PwC’s forecast is built using the historical rate of market share gain
Premium
lifestyle

of the premium lifestyle market against the overall UK clothing,


market

PwC "premium lifestyle" market 6.6% footwear and accessories market. The forecast takes into account
the increasing maturing of the market segment and the increased
rate of growth of the overall market based on Verdict
Clothing, footwear and accessories1 market

Verdict’s market forecast is built using retailers’ reported and


Verdict
forecast sales. Forecasts supported by macroeconomic forecasts,
4.4%
individual retailers’ expansion plans and the competitive
environment

Mintel’s market forecast is built using the ONS retail sales survey
Mintel 3.7% and proprietary Mintel data for consumer spending across clothing
and accessories. Mintel’s market definition excludes footwear

Euromonitor’s market forecast is built using qualitative insights


Euromonitor 2.0% from individual retailer data and interviews. This is supported by
store checks, trade surveys, desk research and company analysis

Note: 1Mintel market forecast excludes footwear


Source: Verdict (2015), Euromonitor (2016), Mintel (2015), Company Accounts, PwC Analysis

The UK “premium lifestyle” market February 2016


PwC 20
To estimate the size of the UK “premium lifestyle” clothing market, PwC has
made assumptions on what share of total revenue for each brand is from
premium lifestyle products, and the wholesale proportion for each brand
20141 UK % addressable %
Brand FY end Comments
revenue (£m) products wholesale
Aigle Dec 5.0 100% 90% Based on lack of UK store locations/limited e-commerce
Barbour Dec 90.6 100% 90% Based on limited UK store presence/limited e-commerce
Boden Dec 126.3 100% 0% Based on lack of wholesale partners
Cath Kidston Mar 84.9 20% 25% Based on Retail Week estimates and company accounts
Crew Clothing Oct 57.7 100% 20% PwC estimate
Fat Face May 201.1 100% 20% PwC estimate
Gant Dec 47.7 100% 57% Based on company accounts
Hunter Dec 36.8 100% 90% Based on company accounts/limited e-commerce
Jack Wills Feb 120.9 100% 0% Based on lack of wholesale partners
Joules May 105.9 100% 20% PwC estimate
Laura Ashley Jan 273.9 17% 5% Based on annual report
Musto Dec 21.8 100% 78% Based on company accounts from 2008 (constant level assumed)
Oliver Bonas Nov 30.3 70% 0% PwC estimate based on store visits
Ralph Lauren Mar 205.0 100% 40% Based on press releases
Rapha Feb 19.7 100% 0% Based on lack of wholesale partners
Seasalt Jan 28.2 100% 25% Based on company accounts from 2010 (constant level assumed)
Supergroup Apr 285.0 100% 31% Based on annual report
Ted Baker Jan 297.8 100% 21% Based on annual report
The White Company Mar 152.9 100% 0% Based on lack of wholesale partners
Tommy Hilfiger Jan 49.7 100% 0% Only UK retail sales reported in accounts
White Stuff May 126.5 100% 20% Based on company accounts from 2010-11 (constant level assumed)
Note: 1Annual revenue matched to calendar year where year end falls part way through a calendar year (e.g. May 2014 year end allocated to 2013, Nov 2014 year end allocated to 2014)
Source: Company accounts, Retail Week, Trade Press

The UK “premium lifestyle” market February 2016


PwC 21
www.pwc.co.uk

This publication has been prepared for general guidance on matters of interest only, and does not constitute
professional advice. You should not act upon the information contained in this publication without obtaining
specific professional advice. No representation or warranty (express or implied) is given as to the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained in this publication, and, to the extent permitted by law,
PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, its members, employees and agents do not accept or assume any liability,
responsibility or duty of care for any consequences of you or anyone else acting, or refraining to act, in reliance on
the information contained in this publication or for any decision based on it.

© 2013 PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP. All rights reserved. In this document, “PwC” refers to
PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (a limited liability partnership in the United Kingdom) which is a member firm of
PricewaterhouseCoopers International Limited, each member firm of which is a separate legal entity.

The UK “premium lifestyle” market February 2016


PwC 22

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