Beruflich Dokumente
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February 2016
Important notice
This document has been made publicly available for the purposes of general guidance on matters of interest only,
and does not constitute professional advice. You should not act upon the information contained in this document
without obtaining specific professional advice.
Information in this document is obtained or derived from a variety of sources. PwC has not sought to establish the
reliability of those sources or verify all of the information so provided. No representation or warranty of any kind
(whether express or implied) is given by PwC to any person as to the accuracy or completeness of the report, and,
to the extent permitted by law, PwC, its members, employees and agents do not accept or assume any liability,
responsibility or duty of care for any consequences of anyone else acting, or refraining to act, in reliance on the
information contained in this document or for any decision based on it.
• The UK “premium lifestyle” segment of the clothing, footwear and accessories market contains
brands characterised by a strong brand ethos that can be stretched across multiple product
categories and channels, generating customer affinity and loyalty
• The “premium lifestyle” market was estimated to be worth c.£2.7bn in 2014, and has been
outperforming the overall clothing, footwear and accessories market in the UK
• PwC has modelled growth in the segment of 6.6% p.a. between 2014 and 2020…
– Ongoing polarisation in the UK clothing market both in terms of price and fashion
– The shift to more casual attire, both at work, but also at more formal ‘dress-up’ events
Grocers Offline
% of total sales
% of total sales
60% 60%
50% 50%
General 90.7%
merchandisers
40% 40% 80.0%
71.6% 71.4% 68.7% 71.2%
30% Specialists 30%
20% 20%
10% 10%
0% 0%
2010 2015 2020 2010 2015 2020
Note: “Other” captures sales for variety stores, second hand stores and street markets
Source: Verdict (2015)
Rising disposable
Shift towards spending Clothing retailer
income and consumer Clothing price deflation
on experiences innovation
confidence
• The clothing market suffered a • While consumer confidence and • Following a period of high • UK high street retailers are
decline during the recession but discretionary spending continue clothing inflation (2010-12), looking for new sources of
has since recovered to increase, consumers are price growth has slowed growth including:
looking to focus their spending
• The UK macro-economic • Forecast growth in the clothing - New categories
more on experiences (e.g.
outlook appears positive, with and footwear market is
holidays) rather than shopping - New fascias
rising disposable incomes and primarily expected to be volume
consumer confidence driving • In addition, consumers driven, with deflation expected - New concepts
discretionary spending, which prioritising spending on the from 2018 onwards, driven by
- New channels
should support further growth home (e.g. paying down lower supply chain costs and
in spend on clothing, footwear mortgages, home discounting by mass market - New partnerships
and accessories improvements) brands
• Retailers are therefore
• This is likely to put pressure on generating more awareness to
spending on clothing, footwear drive footfall and traffic, which
and accessories is growing the overall market
Historical
impact
(12-15)
Future
impact
(15-20)
Nominal GDP vs. Nominal consumer spending vs. UK Monthly consumer confidence index, 2005 (Jan) - 2016 (Jan)
Clothing, accessories and footwear market, 2006-2020 10
Nominal GDP
5
Nominal Consumer Spending Forecast
6% (5)
3%
2% (20)
1% (25)
0%
(30)
(1%)
(35)
(2%)
(3%) (40)
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
UK clothing, accessories and footwear market growth, by price and volume, 2005-2020 Forecast
7%
Inflation driven by rising input
6% costs and manufacturing cost
increases in China
5%
4%
3%
Y-o-Y growth (%)
2%
1%
0%
(1%)
(2%)
Lower inflation and eventual
deflation driven by declining
(3%) supply chain costs and discounting
by mass market brands
(4%)
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
…opening new
fascias…
…entering new Launched in Announced the openings of 6 Virtual pop-up “shopping walls”
Nordstrom and concessions in John Lewis after testing that consumers can engage with
channels… Selfridges the concept with a pop up store via Window Shopping app
…and forming Rihanna designed two Kate Moss has designed Launch of Burberry
collections inspired by multiple collections for
new her personal style for Top Shop, with the first
dedicated music channel
on Apple streaming
partnerships River Island in 2007
Customer affinity
and loyalty
Premium lifestyle brands are
front of mind, featuring high on
consumers’ shopping repertoire.
As a result, customers remain
loyal, shopping with the brand
for many years
Source: Company Websites
2.5
2.5
2.3 Estimated
0.7 wholesale
2.0 revenue
0.7 with retail
2.0
UK brand sales (£ bn)
0.6 markup
1.8
0.6 • For clothing specialists: Given the broad mix of
operating models across these players, where some brands
1.5 1.4 0.5
Retail
have a large wholesale presence, PwC has estimated ‘brand
revenue sales’ to give a more realistic size for the overall segment at
0.4
consumer prices
1.0
1.9
1.8 – A retail multiple of 2.5 (based on PwC experience)
1.6
1.4 has been applied to the wholesale revenue of
1.3 selected brands to estimate the brand sales
0.5 1.0
– Where there is no public information on
wholesale revenue, estimates have been applied
0 • For non-clothing specialists: Given that these brands
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
operate in the premium lifestyle segment, including Cath
3.3% 4.0% 4.5% 4.9% 5.2% 5.5% Kidston, Oliver Bonas and Laura Ashley, we have
estimated the share of clothing to size a like-for-like
Premium lifestyle as a % of UK clothing, footwear & accessories market
market
2.5
2.5
2.3
2.0
2.0
1.8
1.5 1.4
1.0
0.5
0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
YoY Growth 18.5% 25.7% 15.2% 11.5% 8.9% 8.6% 8.0% 7.4% 6.9% 6.6% 5.7% 4.8%
Premium lifestyle
as a % of UK 3.3% 4.0% 4.5% 4.9% 5.2% 5.5% 5.7% 5.9% 6.0% 6.1% 6.2% 6.2%
clothing
Source: Verdict, Company Accounts, PwC Analysis
Market
Casualisation Brand affinity Brand engagement New entrants
polarisation
• The performance of mid- • The premium lifestyle • Consumers are • The growth of online • A number of US and
market retailers (e.g. market has benefitted increasingly looking shopping and social European retailers are
M&S) has been impacted from the shift to more towards brands to media and innovation on beginning to enter the UK
by the outperformance of casual attire, both at provide a sense of in-store experience have market (e.g. Lululemon,
value specialists (e.g. work, but also at more identity and belonging enabled brands to build Tory Burch, Kate Spade)
H&M and Primark) formal ‘dress-up’ events • This has contributed to awareness and engage • Smaller UK brands are
• Similarly, luxury brands • This has expanded the the growth of premium with their customers also scaling quickly (e.g.
have continued to gain range of occasions where lifestyle brands, with more regularly. This is Rapha, Oliver Bonas)
share, as consumers looks premium lifestyle brands’ consumers buying into a important for premium • This is likely to grow the
to purchase investment clothing is appropriate brand with a particular lifestyle brands, where premium lifestyle market
pieces • Casualisation is set to heritage/theme, and brand identity is key further
• This polarisation has continue, with casualwear therefore buying products • This has helped to
created a gap for high becoming acceptable from across multiple establish premium
quality yet affordable across more occasions categories, which is likely lifestyle as a distinct
brands, which is likely to to continue segment in the clothing
continue, albeit at a market and is likely to
slightly slower rate continue to do so
Historical
impact
(12-15)
Future
impact
(15-20)
brands
CAGR 12-14
14%
15%
Fast 11% 10% 10%
fashion/ 10% 8%
6% 5%
fashion-led Lifestyle 4%
5% 3%
0%
(10%)
(10%)
(15%)
H&M
BHS
White Stuff
Next
Boden
Fat Face
Zara
Gap
M&S
Seasalt
Joules
Primark
Crew
French Connection
Ted Baker
Value
Polarisation in fashion
Note: 1CAGR’s shown reflect financial calendar years; GAP/French Connection revenues are Europe segment (no further split available), MS revenue is UK General Merchandise revenue only
Source: Company accounts, Annual reports
Books and
Accessories photographs Holidays Coffee shops
New premium lifestyle entrants, and the growth of smaller brands, is likely
to support volume growth
Large international premium lifestyle brands Smaller UK brands have started to scale quickly,
have begun to enter the UK market… growing market volumes
Revenue (£m)
15
(Glasgow, Manchester, Bath, Guildford) and we 15 13
want the
• 28 UK partners offer products in gyms, yoga world to 10 9
studios and wellness centres know it”
5
“We side 13 9
• First entered the UK market in 2013 with a with Oliver Bonas Rapha
launch in London style Store
• Higher pricing compared to US over Operates through pop-up stores
Roll 11 23
and online only
fashion” 12-14
• 7 stores in the London area
PwC’s forecast is built using the historical rate of market share gain
Premium
lifestyle
PwC "premium lifestyle" market 6.6% footwear and accessories market. The forecast takes into account
the increasing maturing of the market segment and the increased
rate of growth of the overall market based on Verdict
Clothing, footwear and accessories1 market
Mintel’s market forecast is built using the ONS retail sales survey
Mintel 3.7% and proprietary Mintel data for consumer spending across clothing
and accessories. Mintel’s market definition excludes footwear
This publication has been prepared for general guidance on matters of interest only, and does not constitute
professional advice. You should not act upon the information contained in this publication without obtaining
specific professional advice. No representation or warranty (express or implied) is given as to the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained in this publication, and, to the extent permitted by law,
PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, its members, employees and agents do not accept or assume any liability,
responsibility or duty of care for any consequences of you or anyone else acting, or refraining to act, in reliance on
the information contained in this publication or for any decision based on it.
© 2013 PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP. All rights reserved. In this document, “PwC” refers to
PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (a limited liability partnership in the United Kingdom) which is a member firm of
PricewaterhouseCoopers International Limited, each member firm of which is a separate legal entity.