Analisa Teknik dengan

Six-Sigma
(Statistik & Probabilitas)

Dr. Ir. M. Sabri, MT. IPM

 DESCRIBING DATA BY USING
STATISTICS
Introduction

With a broad range of problems, graphical

technique is either undesirable or needs
additional information provided by
analytical techniques
 DESCRIBING DATA BY USING
STATISTICS
Analytical methods of describing a collection
of data-advantages;

 Occupying less space than a graph

 Allowing for comparisons between

collections of data

 Allow for additional calculations and

inference
 ANALYTICAL METHODS

Two Analytical Methods

1. Measures of Central Tendency

2. Measures of Dispersion
 ANALYTICAL METHODS

Measures of Central Tendency

 Is a numerical value that describes;
– The central position of the data
– How the data tend to build up in the center

 Three measure in common use;

1. Mean or average
2. Median
3. Mode
 Measures of Central Tendency
Mean or Average
 Is the sum of observations divided by the
number of observation

 Three techniques for calculating the mean

1. Ungrouped data
2. Grouped data
3. Weighted data
 Mean or Average
Ungrouped data

 Is used when the data are unorganized

~
 The average is represented by X which is
read as X-bar

 The formula is

~
X 
 Xi  X 1  X 2  X 3.......... ..... Xn
n n
Mean or Average- Ungrouped data
Example;
A QC inspector checked the diameter of 5 locating shaft and recorded
the values in mm: 3.35, 3.37, 3.28, 3.34, and 3.30.
Determine the mean of shaft diameter :

~
X 
 Xi
n
3.35  3.37  3.28  3.34  3.30

5
 3.33
 Mean or Average
Grouped data

 When the data have been grouped into a frequency

distribution

 The formula is

~
X
 fiXi 
fiXi  f 2 X 2  f 3 X 3.......... ....  fnXn
n n
n= sum of the frequencies
fi= frequency in a cell or frequency of an
observed value
Xi= cell midpoint or an observed value
n= number of cells or number of observed
values
Mean or Average- Grouped data
Example

Given the frequency distribution of the thickness of 320 casting block

shown in the table below, determine the mean.

 fiXi
Xi fi fi Xi
~
25
28
4
36
100
1008
X
31 51 1581
n
34 63 2142
~ 11549
37
40
58
52
2146
2080
X 
43 34 1462
320
46 16 736
49 6 294
 36.1
n= 320 11549
 Mean or Average
Weightage data

 When a number of averages are combined with different

frequencies, a weighted average is computed

 The formula is

~
X
 wiXi
 wi
~
X = weightage average
wi= weight of the ith average
 Mean or Average- Weightage data
Example

Tensile tests on aluminum alloy rods are conducted at three different

times, which results in three different average values in megapascals
(MPa). On the first occasional five tests are conducted with a average
of 207 MPa (30,000 psi); on the second occasion six tests, with an
average of 203 MPa; and on the last occasion three tests, with an
average of 206 MPa. Determine the weighted average.

~
X 
 wiXi 
(5)(207 )  (6)( 203)  (3)( 206 )
 wi 563

 205 Mpa
 Measures of Central Tendency
Median
 The median of a set of data is that value
that divides the data into two equal halves

 Two techniques used;

1. Ungrouped technique
2. Grouped technique
 Median
Ungrouped technique

 When number in series is odd, the median is

the midpoint of the values

 When number in series is even, the median

is the average of the two middle numbers
 Median- Ungrouped technique
Example

 The ordered set of numbers 3,4, 5, 6, 8, 8, and 10 has a

median of 6, and the ordered set of numbers 22, 24, 24,
24, and 30 has a median of 24.

 When the number in the series is even, the median is the

average of the two middle numbers. Thus, the ordered
set of numbers 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, and 8 has a median that is
the average of 5 and 6, which is (5 + 6)/2 = 5.5.
 Median
Grouped technique

 When data are grouped into a

frequency distribution, the median is
obtained by finding the cell that has
the middle number and then
interpolating within the cell.
 Median- Grouped technique
 The interpolation formula for computing
the median is given by :

( n / 2   f )c
Median  L 
f median
Where L = lower boundary of cell with the median
n = total number of observations
 f = cumulative frequency of all cells below L
f median = frequency of median cell
c = cell interval
 Median- Grouped technique
Example
( n / 2   f )c
Median  L 
Price Frequency f median
30-39 8
40-49 20
(60  28)10
50-59 32  49.5 
60-69 28 32
70-79 23
80-89 9 = RM 59.50
Total=120
 Measures of Central Tendency
Mode
The mode of a set of numbers is that value
that occurs with the greatest frequency
Example

• A series of numbers 3,3,4,5,5,5 and 7. Thus the mode is 5

• A series of numbers 22, 23,23, 23, 24, 24, 25,26,26,26,26

and 27 . Thus the mode is 26
 Measures of Central Tendency
Relationship Among the Measures of Central
Tendency;

 When the distribution is symmetrical, the values for the

average, median, and mode are identical

 when the distribution is skewed, the values are different

 The values of the mean, median, and mode can be used

to determine if data are skewed to the right or to the
left.
 Measures of Central Tendency
If the;
 mode > median> mean
the data are skewed to the left

2. mode < median< mean

the data are skewed to the right
Measures of Central Tendency
Symmetrical Positively Skewed Negatively Skewed
 Bell-Shaped or normal
mean about equal to median

Skewed to the right

mean on the right of median

Skewed to the left

mean on the left of median
 Measures of Dispersion
 Measures of Dispersion describe how the data
are spread or scattered on each side of the
central value

 Measures of dispersion are;

1. Range
2. Standard Deviation
3. Variance
 Range
The range of a series of a numbers is the
difference between the largest and smallest
value or observation

Range = Maximum value – Minimum value

 Range
Example

5 samples of shaft was taken at random. The outside

diameter was measure and recorded. Determine the range

Outside diameter: 20.5, 20.4, 20.1, 20.7 and 20.3mm

Range = Maximum value – Minimum value

= 20.7 – 20.1

= 0.6
 Standard Deviation
 Standard deviation is the measure of dispersion
or measure of spread.

 It provides an indication on the width of spread

on both sides of the mean or it indicates how
close or far the data are scattered away from
the mean.

 The larger the standard deviation, the greater

the distance of the data from the mean.
 Standard Deviation
1. Standard deviation for sample (s)

s
 ( xi  x ) 2

n 1

2. Standard deviation for population (p)


 ( xi  x ) 2

n 1
 Standard Deviation
Example

Determine the standard deviation for the following 6

samples of measurements:
 = 3.2, 2.9, 3.0, 2.9, 3.1, and 2.9 mm

( xi  x ) ( xi  x ) 2

xi
( xi  x ) 2

3.2 +0.2 0.04 s

n 1
2.9 -0.1 0.01
3.0 0.0 0.00
0.08
2.9 -0.1 0.01 
3.1 +0.1 0.01 6 1
2.9 -0.1 0.01

x  3.0  0   0.08  0.13 mm

 Standard Deviation for group data

When the data have been grouped into a

frequency distribution, the formula for
standard deviation is

s
 ( fi Xi ) 2
 ( fi Xi ) 2

n(n  1)
 Standard Deviation for group data
Example

Given the frequency distribution for diameter of 96 shafts.

Determine the mean standard deviation
Boundaries Midpoint Frequency fi Xi2

Xi fi fi Xi

72.6 - 81.5 77.0 5 385 29645

81.6 – 90.5 86.0 19 1643 140524

90.6 – 99.5 95.0 31 2945 279775

99.6 – 108.5 104.0 27 2808 292032

108.6 – 117.5 113.0 14 1582 178766

n= 96  fx  9354  fx 2
 920742
 Standard Deviation for group data
Example – cont.

~
X
 fi Xi n ( fi Xi 2 )  ( fi Xi ) 2
n s
n(n  1)
9356 96 (920742 )  (9354 ) 2
 
96 96 (96  1)
 98.017
 97.4
 9 .9
 Standard Deviation
 The standard deviation is a reference value that
measure the dispersion in the data.

 The smaller the value of standard deviation

the better the quality, since the distribution
is more closely compacted around the
central value
Relationship between the measures of
dispersion
 In quality control the range is a very common measure of the
dispersion.

 It is used in control chart.

 The advantage of the range is in providing a knowledge of the total

spread of the data.

 It is also valuable when the amount of data is too small or too

scattered to justify the calculation of a more precise measure of
dispersion.

 As the number of data increases, the accuracy of the range

decreases, since it becomes easier for extremely high or low
readings to occurs.

 It is suggested that the use of the range be limited to a maximum

of 10 data.
Relationship between the measures of
dispersion
 The standard deviation is used when a more
precise measure is desired.

 It is also the most common measure of the

dispersion for quality control work and is used
when subsequent statistics are to be calculated.

 When the data have an extreme value for the

high or low, the standard deviation is more
desirable than the range.
 Relationship bet. the measures of dispersion

 Figure shows two distributions

with the same mean and
range, however, the
distribution on the bottom is X
much better. R

 The sample standard deviation

is much smaller on the bottom
distribution indicating that the
data are more compact around
the central value, X.

 As the standard deviation gets X

smaller, the quality gets R

better.
Normal Distribution
 NORMAL DISTRIBUTION
Introduction

 Variation occurs in all things.

 No process, product, or service is always the same.

 Anything that can be measured or counted contains

variation.

 If we plot this variation on a graph, we would find that most

variation tends to form a basic pattern or bell-shape curve.

 This is commonly referred to as the normal distribution

curve or the normal curve.
 NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

 Many measured quantities in the natural sciences follow a

normal distribution, for example heights, masses, ages,
examination results, and etc.

 The normal curve illustrates the natural or normal variation

that occurs in most processes.
 NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

 The normal distribution is bell shaped and

perfectly symmetrical about its mean

 It contains all of the measures of central

tendency – mean, mode, and median - in
the centre, and all three have the same
value.
 NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

 The normal curve provides a simplified model that can

be used to determine the probability of certain events in
nearly all stable processes

 The probability that certain events or variable has value

lying within a given range of values is given by the area
under the curve between the two extremes of the range
of values
 NORMAL DISTRIBUTION
To illustrate how the normal curve is used to determine
the probability of certain events, the characteristics of
normal distribution need to be examined
 Characteristics of the Normal
Distribution:
1. The curve is symmetrical about the mean
2. The horizontal axis represents a continuous variable such as length
3. The area under the curve between two points on the horizontal axis
represents the probability that the value of the variable lies between
these two points
4. Total area under the curve sums to 1, i.e., the area of the distribution
on each side of the mean is 0.5

5. The mean is in the middle of the distribution

(Mean= Median= Mode due to symmetry)

6. About 95% of the values lie within two standard deviations of the mean
 Characteristics of the Normal
Distribution:
7. The area under the curve is divided into six sections

Each standard deviation indicates the percentage of measurement in

the area under the curve. 99.73% falls within 6 standard deviations

8. The position and shape of the curve depends on the" mean and
standard deviation of the distribution

As the standard deviation gets larger, the curve will get flatter and
extend further on either side of the mean
 NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

 The normal curve for any process can be

completely specified by two numbers:
1. mean
2. standard deviation.

 The mean represents the average value of the

data.

 The standard deviation is a measure of the

average deviation or spread of data from the
mean
 STANDARD NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

 To calculate probabilities of a normally distributed random

variable x requires the calculation of areas under the curve
which is very complicated process

 There is a simpler method using a special normal

distribution called the standard normal distribution

 Standard normal distribution has a mean of 0 and

standard deviation of 1
 STANDARD NORMAL DISTRIBUTION
Example:
The mean weight of a shaft is 800g and the weight are normally
distributed. If the shaft is taken at random, what are probability :

a. the weight of shaft less than 800g

b. the weight of shaft more than 815g

Remarks:
 The shaded area is a small
proportion of the total area but it will
difficult to estimate the actual figure

 Tables are used to obtain this

area
STANDARD NORMAL DISTRIBUTION
 The standard normal distribution has a mean of zero and a standard
deviation of 1

 In the diagram shown, the horizontal axis are number of standard

deviations which are called the Z values.

 The mean will be represented by μ and the standard deviation by σ

 STANDARD NORMAL DISTRIBUTION
Any normal distribution can be transformed into the standard
normal distribution by shifting the vertical axis across so
that is coincides with the mean value μ thus changing the
horizontal values from:
X-values to (X- μ)-values
STANDARD NORMAL DISTRIBUTION
 Having shifted the vertical axis so that it coincides with the axis of
symmetry

 The distribution can now be either stretched or squeezed to convert it

into a normal distribution with standard deviation of 1
 STANDARD NORMAL DISTRIBUTION
 If it has to be squeezed, it is because the original normal distribution had a
standard deviation σ > 1 and if it has to be stretched, the original normal
distribution had a standard deviation σ < 1.

 In either case the shape of the curve is dictated by the fact that the area under it
should remain at 1.

 The result of this is that:

(X – μ) – values become (X - μ)/ σ – values

 In conclusion to convert a normal distribution into a standard normal

distribution the;
X - values of the original normal distribution are converted into
Z - values for the normal distribution by the transformation:

( X  )
Z

 Z - TABLE
Z - Table, Area Under The Normal Curve
 z .00 . 01 .02 .03 .04 .05 .06 .07 .08 .09

0.0 .0000 .0040 .0080 .0120 .0160 .0199 .0239 .0279 .0319 .0359

0.1 .0398 .0438 .0478 .0517 .0557 .0596 .0636 .0675 .0714 .0753

0.2 .0793 .0832 .0871 .0910 .0948 .0987 .1026 .1064 .1103 .1141

0.3 .1179 .1217 .1255 .1293 .1331 .1368 .1406 .1443 .1480 .1517

0.4 .1554 .1591 .1628 .1664 .1700 .1736 .1772 .1808 .1844 .1879

0.5 .1915 .1950 .1985 .2019 .2054 .2088 .2123 .2157 .2190 .2224

0.6 .2257 .2291 .2324 .2357 .2389 .2422 .2454 .2486 .2517 .2549

0.7 .2580 .2611 .2642 .2673 .2704 .2734 .2764 .2794 .2823 .2852

0.8 .2881 .2910 .2939 .2967 .2995 .3023 .3051 .3078 .3106 .3133

0.9 .3159 .3186 .3213 .3238 .3264 .3289 .3315 .3340 .3365 .3389

1.0 .3413 .3438 .3461 .3485 .3508 .3531 .3554 .3577 .3599 .3621

1.1 .3643 .3665 .3686 .3708 .3729 .3749 .3770 .3790 .3810 .3830

1.2 .3849 .3869 .3888 .3907 .3925 .3944 .3962. .3980 .3997 .4015
Z - TABLE 1.3 .4032 .4049 .4066 .4082 .4099 .4115 .4131 .4147 .4162 .4177

1.4 .4192 .4207 .4222 .4236 .4251 .4265 .4279 .4292 .4306 .4319

1.5 .4332 .4345 .4357 .4370 .4382 .4394 .4406 .4418 .4429 .4441

1.6 .4452 .4463 .4474 .4484 .4495 .4505 .4515 .4525 .4535 .4545

1.7 .4554 .4564 .4573 .4582 .4591 .4599 .4608 .4616 .4625 .4633

1.8 .4641. .4649 .4656 .4664 .4671 .4678 .4686 .4693 .4699 .4706

1.9 .4713 .4719 .4726 .4732 .4738 .4744 .4750 .4756 .4761 .4767

2.0 .4772 .4778 .4783 .4788 .4793 .4798 .4803 .4808 .4812 .4817

2.1 .4821 .4826 .4830 .4834 .4838 .4842 .4846 .4850 .4854 .4857

2.2 .4861 .4864 .4868 .4871 .4875 .4878 .4881 .4884 .4887 .4890

2.3 .4893 .4896 .4898 .4901 .4904 .4906 .4909 .4911 .4913 .4916

2.4 .4918 .4920 .4922 .4925 .4927 .4929 .4931 .4932 .4934 .4936

2.5 .4938 .4940 .4941 .4943 .4945 .4946 .4948 .4949 .4951 .4952

2.6 .4953 .4955 .4956 .4957 .4959 .4960 .4961 .4962 .4963 .4964

2.7 .4965 .4966 .4967 .4968 .4969 .4970 .4971 .4972 .4973 .4974

2.8 .4974 .4975 .4976 .4977 .4977 .4978 .4979 .4979 .4980 .4981

2.9 .4981 .4982 .4982 .4983 .4984 .4984 .4985 .4985 .4986 .4986

3.0 .4987 .4987 .4988 .4988 .4988 .4989 .4989 .4989 .4990 .4990
Z - Table, Area Under The Normal
Curve
 Area Under the Normal Curve
Example
Case 1: Z1 =1 Z2 = α

Area between Z = 0 and Z = 1 is 0.3413

Area between Z = 0 and Z = α is half the total area (0.5).
Thus the area between Z = 1 and Z= α is :
0.5 - 0.3413 = 0.1587
 Area Under the Normal Curve
Example
Case 2: Z1 = -1.5 Z2 = 0

Areas to the left of Z = 0 match areas to the right.

Consequently, the area between Z = -1.5 and Z = 0 is the same as the
area between Z = 0 and Z = +1.5 which is 0.4332
 Area Under the Normal Curve
Example
Case 3: Z1 = -α Z2 = -1.5

This is the same area as the area between Z = +1.5 and Z = +α

which is :
0.5 - 0.4332 = 0.0668
 Area Under the Normal Curve
Example
Case 4: Z1 = -α Z2 = 1

Area between Z = -α and Z= 0 is half of the total area (0.5)

Area between Z = 0 and Z = 1 is 0.3413
The area between Z = -α and Z = 1 is
0.5 + 0.3413 = 0.8413
 Area Under the Normal Curve
Example
Case 5: Z1 = -1.5 Z2 = α

By the symmetry of the curve this area is the same as the area
between Z = 0 and Z = +1.5 plus half the area under the curve:

0.4332 + 0.5 = 0.9332

 Area Under the Normal Curve
Example
Case 6: Z1 = -1.5 Z2 = 1

Area between Z = -1.5 and Z = 0 is 0.4332

Area between Z= 0 and Z = 1 is 0.3413
Consequently, the area between Z= 1.5 and Z = 1 is :

0.4332 + 0.3413 = 0.7745

 Area Under the Normal Curve
Example
Case 7: Z1 = 1 Z2 = 1.5

Area between Z = O and Z = 1.5 is 0.4332

Area between Z = O and Z = 1 is 0.3413
As a result, the area between Z = 1 and Z = 1.5 is :

0.4332 - 0.3413 = 0.0922

 Normal Distribution Work example
The mean value of the weight of a shaft is 0.297 kg with standard deviation of 0.024 kg.
Assuming a normal distribution, find the:
a. percentage of weight of shaft that falls below the lower specification limit of 0.274 kg
b. percentage of the weight of shaft that fall above 0.347 kg
c. Percentage of the weight of shaft that fall between 0.285 and 0.355 kg

b) Z = 0.347 - 0.297
a) Z = (X -µ) / σ
0.024
= 2.08
= 0.274 - 0.297
0.024 From the table, Z = 2.08, area under curve is 0.4812
= - 0.96 Therefore, percentage of weight that falls above 0.347 kg :
0.5 - 0.4812= 0.0188 or 1.88%
From the table Z = -0.96 ,
c) Z1 = 0.285 - 0.297
area under curve is 0.3315
0.024
Therefore, percentage of = -0.5
weight that falls below
0.274 kg : Z2 = 0.355 - 0.297
0.024
0.5 - 0.3315 = 0.1685 or = 2.42

From the table, Z1 = -0.5 and Z2 = 2.42,

16.85% area under the curve are 0.1915 and 0.4922
Therefore, percentage of weight that falls between 0.285 and 0.355 :

0.1915 + 0.4922 = 0.6837 or 68.37 %

Random & Sampling
 RANDOM SAMPLING
Introduction

 Many companies use sampling plans to inspect their products because of the
advantages in sampling over 100 percent inspection.

 It is impossible to measure every product produced by a given process.

 Therefore random sampling methods are used.

 Random samples are selected in a manner whereby every product in the

process has an equally chance of being selected.

 Random sampling may be used to estimate the mean and standard

deviation of a certain population. It provide useful information of the entire
process.

 Therefore, by taking a series of random samples and calculating the mean

and standard deviation of the samples, the mean and standard deviation of
the entire population can be estimated.
 RANDOM SAMPLING - Advantages
The advantages of random sampling are:

1. Time of inspection is short

2. Cost of inspection is cheap

3. In destructive test only a few parts are destroys

4. Less handling of parts to be inspected, thus handling

damage is less likely

5. Do not fell bore

6. Used to estimate the mean and standard deviation of

population
 RANDOM SAMPLING

Samples - populations

Sample means - population means

Sample standard deviations - population standard deviations

 Central Limit Theorem

The theory that explains how random

samples can be used to estimate the
characteristics of an entire population is
known as the central limit theorem
 Central Limit Theorem

 If the population values are normally distributed, the

sampling distribution of the means would also be normal.

 If the population is not normally distributed, the agreement

with the normal distribution depends on the sample sizes;
- the larger the sample size, the closer the agreement

 The spread of the sampling distribution depends on the

sample size;
- the larger the sample size, the smaller the spread
 Central Limit Theorem
Rule 1

If the population is normally distributed,

the means of samples selected from the
population will also be normally
distributed, regardless of the sample size
 Central Limit Theorem
Rule 2

If the population is not normally distributed,

the means of 30 or more samples randomly
selected from the population will be
normally distributed
 Standard Deviation for Sampling Distribution

The standard deviation of the sampling

distribution is called the standard error as it
measures the error that could arise due to the
sampling distribution

The standard deviation of the sampling distribution,


x
n
Sampling Distribution of the means
 Standard Mean
Standard Normal Distribution For Sampling

If x is the mean of a random sample of size n from a

population whose distribution has the mean µ and the
standard deviation σ,
then the standard mean Z:

x
Z
 n
 Random Sampling
Work Example

To verify that a process of manufacturing cams is properly centered, a random

sample of 100 cams was taken from the production line, and their eccentricities
were measured. If the population standard deviation was 0.005 mm, what is the
probability of obtaining a mean value between 0.249 mm- 0.251 mm if the
process center is 0.250 mm ?

Given: µ = 0.250 mm and σ = 0.005 mm

For x = 0.249 mm, For x = 0.251 mm

0.249  0.250 0.251  0.250
Z Z
0.005 100 0.005 100

 2 2

Therefore, area under the curve between Z = -2 and Z = 2 :

0.4772 + 0.4772 = 0.9544 or 95.44 %

 Random Sampling
Work example

A random sample of size 100 is taken from a population whose

mean is 25 and the standard deviation is 5. Find the probability that
the mean of this sample will exceed 26.

Given: µ= 25 and σ = 5
26  25
For x = 26, Z
5 100

2
From the Z-table, the probability the mean of the sample will exceed 26 :

0.5 - 0.4772 = 0.0228 or 2.28 %

 Random Sampling
Work example

What is the probability that the mean of a random sample of size 50

will lie outside the limits 10 - 15 if the sample is taken from a
population whose mean and standard deviation are 12 and 16,
respectively.

Given: µ= 12 and σ = 16

For x = 10, For x = 15

10  12 15  12
Z Z
16 50 16 50

 0.8839  1.3258

From the Z-table , probability the mean of sample tie outside the limit 10 - 15 :

1 - ( 0.3106 + 0.4082) = 0.2812 or 28.12 %