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INTRODUCTION

TO
RENEWABLE ENERGY
TECHNOLOGIES

Submitted By:

Carlos Miguel C. Dacaimat


BS CHE V

Submitted to:

Dr. Denvert C. Pangayao

December 8, 2017
TABLE OF CONTENTS

The Need for Alternative Energy Sources………………………………………… 3

Renewable Energy……………………………………………………………. 5

Features of Renewable Energy……………………………………………... 5

Advantages of Renewable Energy………………………………………... 5

Disdvantages of Renewable Energy………………………………………. 8

Renewable Energy Technologies………………………………………………….. 9

History of Renewable Energy Technologies…………………………………… 13

Present Status of Renewable Energy Technologies………………………….. 20

Global Setting…………………………………………………………… 22

Future Trends in Renewable Energy Technologies…………………………… 23

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The Need For Alternative Energy Sources

Renewable energy is generated from natural resources—such as sunlight,


wind, rain, tides and geothermal heat—which are renewable (naturally
replenished). When comparing the processes for producing energy, there remain
several fundamental differences between renewable energy and fossil fuels. The
process of producing oil, coal, or natural gas fuel is a difficult and demanding
process that requires a great deal of complex equipment, physical and chemical
processes. On the other hand, alternative energy can be widely produced with
basic equipment and natural processes. Wood, the most renewable and
available alternative fuel, emits the same amount of carbon when burned as
would be emitted if it degraded naturally.

1. Fossil Fuels are a Finite Resource

There is a current global need for clean and renewable energy sources. Fossil
fuels are non-renewable and require finite resources, which are dwindling
because of high cost and environmentally damaging retrieval techniques.
However, the increase in demand for non-renewable energy resources including
fossil fuels can lead to an increased depletion rate of these resources and can be
detrimental in terms of environmental impact.

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2. Fossil Fuels Contribute to Climate Change

It's a fact that the climate is changing and that fossil fuel emissions are
contributing greatly to that change, including enormous amounts greenhouse
gases and carbon dioxide which were generated from various fossil fuel powered
industries. By contrast, renewable energy technologies including solar energy
panels and wind turbines generate zero emissions in their generation of electricity.
However, the manufacturing process by which the components of these
renewable energy systems are created is entirely reliant on fossil fuel inputs. This
stands as an even more poignant example of the necessity of renewable energy
development. Society can benefit not only from shifting electricity generation off
of a finite resource, but it can also benefit from shifting its manufacturing system
away from them.

3. Renewable Energy is Democratic


While renewable energy systems on a large scale are an important
step for keeping national and international infrastructures intact, it's also
important to understand the scalability of renewable energy solutions. The
average person who can't afford their own coal-powered power plant is
generally capable of purchasing a home solar array or small wind turbine.
When individuals are able to own the equipment that generates their
electricity that means that they don't have to rely on fluctuating prices or
shortages from outside energy producers.

Also, renewable energy can often be gathered cleanly and safely in local
or regional communities due to the wide availability of the inputs. This
means that national manufacturing and energy rates aren't dependent
upon prices set by unstable foreign markets.

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Renewable Energy

Renewable energy is energy that


is collected from renewable
resources, which are naturally
replenished on a human
timescale, such as sunlight, wind,
rain, tides, waves, and
geothermal heat. Renewable
energy often provides energy in
four important areas: electricity
generation, air and water
heating/cooling, transportation,
and rural (off-grid) energy services. Renewable energy is any sustainable energy
source that comes from natural environment.

Features of Renewable Energy

1. It exists perpetually and in abundant in the environment.


2. Ready to be harnessed and inexhaustible
3. It is a clean alternative to fossil fuels
4. It can be replenished constantly

Advantages of Renewable Energy

1. Renewable energy is eco-friendly

It is a clean source of energy, meaning, it has low or zero carbon and


greenhouse emission. Fossil fuels emit high levels of greenhouse gas and carbon
dioxide, which are greatly responsible for global warming, climate change,
and degradation of air quality. Fossil fuels also contribute to sulfur emission to the
atmosphere leading to acid rains. Acid rains can cause damage to buildings.
Solar and wind power are considered eco-friendly because they emit zero toxic
gases to the environment. The use of renewable energy dramatically reduces the
dependence on fossil fuel as a source of energy, hence, cutting back on air
pollution.

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2. It’s a renewable resource

This implies that they do not deplete over a lifetime and there is zero
possibility that they will run out (sustainable source of energy). Sources of energy
like fossil fuels (oil, gas, and coal) are considered limited resources and there is
strong possibility that they will run out in the future. Renewable energy can help
developing countries from over-reliance on fossil fuels. Powerful winds, heat
emanating from beneath the earth, sunshine and moving water can guarantee
a huge and steady energy supply to a nation for many years.

3. Renewable energy is a reliable source of energy

In the previous few decades, the use of fossil fuel has sharply increased. This
over-reliance on fossil fuels has led to our security being threatened. Fossils fuels
are prone to trade disputes, political instabilities, spike in energy prices and
unnecessary wars. These variables affect a lot more than a nation’s energy
policies; they can significantly drain a county’s economy.

Although most argue that solar and wind energy are unreliable, a solid
infrastructure puts this argument to rest. If solar and wind plants are distributed
over a large geographical location, there can be minimal electricity generation
interruption because weather disruptions in one location cannot be the same in
other locations.

4. Leads to job creation

Renewable energy makes real economic sense because it is a cheaper


alternative to most traditional sources of energy. Since the inception of
renewable energy, new and stable jobs have been added to most world
economies. For, instance, in Germany and UK, many jobs have already been
created thanks to their relentless efforts to develop and encourage the use
of renewable forms of energy. Experts project that with the ongoing rigorous
campaigns to embrace renewable energy, thousands of stable jobs will be
created.

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5. Renewable energy has stabilized global energy prices

Change up to renewable sources of energy means stability of energy prices


across the globe. This is because the cost of renewable energy depends on the
initial cost of installation of renewable energy technologies as opposed to fossil
fuels, which increase and decrease depending on the current inflation and
availability of the resource.

6. Less maintenance of facilities

Once infrastructure for the harnessing of the renewable resource is laid


down, there is low to zero maintenance required. This means that the owners of
the facilities will reap big profits while providing cheap electricity to
the population.

7. Boosts public health

If governments took upon themselves to build more renewable energy


facilities, the population would enjoy the health benefits. According to a study by
the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Americans spend approximately
$361.7 to $886.5 billion every year on overall health of the population. A big chunk
of this budget goes to mitigate and cure diseases related to fossils fuel use like
heart diseases, cancer, and neurological disorders.

Greenhouse, carbon and sulfur compounds emitted by fossils fuels are risky to our
health if inhaled over time. This is reason enough to consider renewable energy
moving forward.

8. Empowering of people in the countryside

Renewable energy generation mainly takes place in remote settings. This


means that local towns would get a fair share of power generated, ultimately,
catalyzing the regeneration of those depressed areas both socially and
economically. Electrification of those areas will open up untapped opportunities
for development through the advancement of greenhouses using geothermal
power, district heating of towns and communities through hot water generated
by the energy exploitation of forestry and agricultural biomass.

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Disadvantages of Renewable Energy

1. The electricity generation capacity is still not large enough

There are still challenges to generation of large quantities of power in


renewable energy technology compared to traditional forms of energy
generation like fossil fuel. Fossil fuel still produces large quantities of electricity
today, by far. This, essentially, means that it can’t be solely relied upon to power
the whole nation.

This means that either we need to set up more such facilities to match up
with the growing demand or look out for ways to reduce our energy consumption.
This phenomenon indicates that a balance of different energy sources will still
prevail for some years to come.

2. Renewable energy can be unreliable

Renewable energy technologies totally depend on the weather (for e.g.:


sun and wind) to be able to harness any energy. In case atmospheric conditions
are not good enough, renewable energy technologies would lack the ability to
generate any electricity. This might instigate campaigns by the authorities to
reduce energy usage in order to serve the population for a longer period.

3. Low-efficiency levels

Renewable energy technologies are still significantly new to the market,


meaning, they still lack the much-needed efficiency. This poses forecast problems
and investors may shy away from investing their money for fear of not getting
returns pretty quick.

4. Requires a huge upfront capital outlay

Setting up renewable energy generation facilities requires a huge financial


outlay. Installation of wind turbine, solar panels, and hydroelectricity plants are
relatively expensive. These plants require upfront investments to build, have high
maintenance expenses and require careful planning and implementation. Also,

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the electricity generated needs to be delivered to towns and cities, which means
additional cost of installing power lines.

RENEWABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES

Solar Energy

Solar energy involves the


use of radiant light and
heat from the Sun that is
harnessed using a range of
ever-evolving technologies
such as solar heating,
photovoltaics, solar
thermal energy, solar
architecture, molten salt
power plants and artificial
photosynthesis.

It is an important source of renewable energy and its technologies are broadly


characterized as either passive solar or active solar depending on how they
capture and distribute solar energy or convert it into solar power. Active solar
techniques include the use of photovoltaic systems, concentrated solar power
and solar water heating to harness the energy. Passive solar techniques include
orienting a building to the Sun, selecting materials with favorable thermal mass or
light-dispersing properties, and designing spaces that naturally circulate air.

Wind Energy

Wind energy involves the use of air flow


through wind turbines to mechanically
power generators for electric power. Wind
power, as an alternative to burning fossil
fuels, is plentiful, renewable, widely

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distributed, clean, produces no greenhouse gas emissions during operation,
consumes no water, and uses little land. The net effects on the environment are
far less problematic than those of nonrenewable power sources.

Wind farms consist of many individual wind turbines which are connected to the
electric power transmission network. Onshore wind is an inexpensive source of
electric power, competitive with or in many places cheaper than coal or gas
plants. Offshore wind is steadier and stronger than on land, and offshore farms
have less visual impact, but construction and maintenance costs are
considerably higher. Small onshore wind farms can feed some energy into the
grid or provide electric power to isolated off-grid locations.

Wind power gives variable power which is very consistent from year to year but
which has significant variation over shorter time scales. It is therefore used in
conjunction with other electric power sources to give a reliable supply. As the
proportion of wind power in a region increases, a need to upgrade the grid, and
a lowered ability to supplant conventional production can occur. Power
management techniques such as having excess capacity, geographically
distributed turbines, dispatchable backing sources, sufficient hydroelectric
power, exporting and importing power to neighboring areas, or reducing
demand when wind production is low, can in many cases overcome these
problems. In addition, weather forecasting permits the electric power network to
be readied for the predictable variations in production that occur.

Hydropower

Hydropower or water power is power


derived from the energy of falling water
or fast running water, which may be
harnessed for useful purposes. Since
ancient times, hydropower from many
kinds of watermills has been used as a
renewable energy source for irrigation
and the operation of various
mechanical devices, such as gristmills,
sawmills, textile mills, trip hammers, dock

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cranes, domestic lifts, and ore mills. A trompe, which produces compressed air
from falling water, is sometimes used to power other machinery at a distance.

To harness energy from flowing water, the water must be controlled. A large
reservoir is created, usually by damming a river to create an artificial lake, or
reservoir. Water is channeled through tunnels in the dam.

The energy of water flowing through the dam's tunnels causes turbines to turn. The
turbines make generators move. Generators are machines that produce
electricity.

Engineers control the amount of water let through the dam. The process used to
control this flow of water is called the intake system. When a lot of energy is
needed, most of the tunnels to the turbines are open, and millions of gallons of
water flow through them. When less energy is needed, engineers slow down the
intake system by closing some of the tunnels.

Tidal Energy

Tidal power or tidal energy is


a form of hydropower that
converts the energy
obtained from tides into
useful forms of power, mainly
electricity.

Although not yet widely


used, tidal energy has
potential for future electricity
generation. Tides are more
predictable than the wind and the sun. Among sources of renewable energy,
tidal energy has traditionally suffered from relatively high cost and limited
availability of sites with sufficiently high tidal ranges or flow velocities, thus
constricting its total availability. However, many recent technological
developments and improvements, both in design (e.g. dynamic tidal power, tidal
lagoons) and turbine technology (e.g. new axial turbines, cross flow turbines),

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indicate that the total availability of tidal power may be much higher than
previously assumed, and that economic and environmental costs may be
brought down to competitive levels.

Geothermal Energy

Geothermal energy is heat


energy generated and
stored in the Earth. The
geothermal energy of the
Earth's crust originates from
the original formation of the
planet and from
radioactive decay of
materials. The geothermal
gradient, which is the difference in temperature between the core of the planet
and its surface, drives a continuous conduction of thermal energy in the form of
heat from the core to the surface.

Geothermal power is cost-effective, reliable, sustainable, and environmentally


friendly, but has historically been limited to areas near tectonic plate boundaries.
Recent technological advances have dramatically expanded the range and size
of viable resources, especially for applications such as home heating, opening a
potential for widespread exploitation.

Nuclear Energy

Nuclear energy is the energy in


the nucleus of an atom. Atoms
are the smallest particles that can
break a material. At the core of
each atom there are two types of
particles (neutrons and protons)

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that are held together. Nuclear energy is the energy that holds neutrons and
protons.

Nuclear energy can be used to produce electricity. This energy can be obtained
in two ways: nuclear fusion and nuclear fission. In nuclear fusion, energy is
released when atoms are combined or fused together to form a larger atom. The
sun produces energy like this. In nuclear fission, atoms are split into smaller atoms,
releasing energy. Actually, nuclear power plants can only use nuclear fission to
produce electricity.

When one of these two physical reactions (nuclear fission or nuclear fusion)
success, atoms experiment a slight loss of mass. This mass lost generates a big
amount of heat energy, explained by Albert Einstein with his famous equation E =
mc2.
HISTORY OF RENEWABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES

A. Global Setting

Year Description
2000 BC According to the report of an early missionary to China, coal was already
being burned there for heating and cooking, and had been so employed
for up to 4000 years. Likewise, in early medieval Europe, the existence of coal
was no secret, but the 'black stone' was regarded as an inferior fuel because
it produced so much soot and smoke. Thus, ‘black stone’ (known as coal)
was replaced in favor of wood.
200 BC The vertical waterwheel, spread across Europe within a few hundred years.
By the end of the Roman era, waterwheels powered mills to crush grain, full
cloth, tan leather, smelt and shape iron, saw wood, and carry out a variety
of other early industrial processes. Productivity increased, dependence on
human and animal muscle power gradually declined, and locations with

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good water-power resources became centers of economic and industrial
activity.

c. 1000 Windmills were turning in the blustery Seistan region of Persia. These primitive,
AD vertical carousel-type mills utilized the wind to grind corn, and to raise water
from streams to irrigate gardens. Their use soon spread to India, other parts
of the Muslim world, and China, where farmers employed them to pump
water, grind grain, and crush sugarcane.

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1200s Dutch windmills and waterwheels were built in
many parts of Europe to harness the wind
energy used in milling process.

1767 The first recorded solar device was a collector


invented by the Swiss scientist Horace de
Saussure. He experimented with trapping solar
heat using boxes made of glass, and later
refined his design to include outer shells of
black wood coated with insulation. Though he
was initially experimenting with solar energy
and determining the nature of solar power (of
note, he proved that the sun shines on the
earth in equal measure, but that the
atmosphere is what traps solar heat and
causes differences in temperature) his designs
were also later used as the first solar ovens.

1800 English scientists William Nicholson and Sir Anthony Carlisle discovered that
applying electric current to water produced hydrogen and oxygen gases.
This process was later termed 'electrolysis'. The discovery of electrolysis was
an important historical step in the development of hydrogen energy and the
hydrogen fuel cell.

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1816 Robert Stirling applied for a patent for what
he called his “economiser”, which is an
engine capable of running off of heat. This
engine later became a predecessor for the
dish collector, which is used to generate
energy by capturing and converting
thermal energy to produce electricity. This
engine was later used in the dish/Stirling
system, a solar thermal electric technology
that concentrates the sun’s thermal energy
in order to produce power.

1830 Ethanol blend becomes a popular use for lamp fuels in US.
1839 French scientist Edmond Becquerel discovers the photovoltaic effect while
experimenting with an electrolytic cell. He observed electricity generation
increased when exposed to light.
1860 August Mouchet conceives the idea for
solar-powered steam engines. In the
following two decades, he and his
assistant, Abel Pifre, constructed the first
solar powered engines and used them for
a variety of applications. These engines
became the predecessors of modern
parabolic dish collectors.

1876 William Grylls Adams and Richard Evans Day discover that selenium can
produce electricity when exposed to light. Though it wasn’t efficient enough
to be used to produce energy on its own, it proved the phenomenon can
occur naturally without heat or moving parts.

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1882 First Commercial Scale
Hydroelectric Plant Goes into
Operation in Appleton,
Wisconsin capable of
producing 12.5 kW which
could light up 250 units of 16-
candlepower lamps

1887 The first windmill used for the production of electricity was built in Scotland in
July 1887 by Prof. James Blyth of Anderson's College, Glasgow
1888 Charles F. Brush develops the world's first windmill that can generate
electricity
1891 Clarence Kemp patents the first commercial solar water heater
1892 World's First Geothermal District Heating System was built in Boise, Idaho
1900 The first public demonstration of vegetable oil based diesel fuel was at the
1900 World's Fair, when the French government commissioned the Otto
company to build a diesel engine to run on peanut oil. The French
government was interested in vegetable oils as a domestic fuel for their
African colonies.
1906 - Studies of alcohol as an internal combustion engine fuel began in the U.S.
1908 with the Edison Electric Testing Laboratory and Columbia University in 1906.
Elihu Thomson reported that despite a smaller heat value, 'a gallon of
alcohol will develop substantially the same power in an internal combustion
engine as a gallon of gasoline.
1908 William J. Bailley of the Carnegie Steel Company invents the modern solar
collector with copper coils and an insulated box.

Henry Ford built the first flex fuel vehicle: a 1908 Model T designed to operate
on either ethanol or gasoline."
1911 The importance of solar energy was recognized in a 1911 Scientific American
article:

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"in the far distant future, natural fuels having been exhausted [solar power]
will remain as the only means of existence of the human race"
1921 World's first geothermal
power plant was built in
California. John D. Grant
drilled a geothermal well
and ran a small direct-
current generator which
was used to provide
electricity for lighting The
Geysers resort. However,
because the materials
used at that time could
not withstand the
geothermal steam
environment and
because of the difficulties of drilling for geothermal steam, this resource
could not compete at that time with other low-cost, easier-to-develop
energy resources.
1927 Marcellus and Joe Jacobs develop the first commercially available wind
turbine for electricity generation. The Jacob brothers created a wind
powered turbine based on the design of earlier water pump mills. The design
succeeds when they replace the blades of the water pump mills with
modern air plane propellers.
1935 Hoover Dam is completed
on the Colorado River in
Arizona, four years after
construction began in
1931. At the time of its
completion, the Hoover
Dam was the largest
hydroelectric producer in
the world. The dam
remains the largest
producer of hydroelectricity in the world until 1948.

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1942 Enrico Fermi and other physicists in Europe and America came to
understand that a uranium atom split by a neutron would cause a self-
perpetuating chain reaction of atom splitting that would release enormous
energy. This process, called nuclear fission, suggested possible military
applications.

President Franklin Roosevelt authorized the 'Manhattan Project,' Fermi's work


was relocated to the University of Chicago, he and his team achieved the
first controlled nuclear chain reaction.
1954 The nuclear power plant APS-1 at Obninsk, Russia with a net electrical output
of 5 MW was connected to the power grid, the world's first nuclear power
plant that generated electricity for commercial use.
1960 General Electric [GE] developed workable proton-exchange membrane
cells [known as fuel cells] for use as power supplies in the Apollo and Gemini
space missions.
1966 The first commercial
tidal power plant
was built in La
Rance, France with
a capacity of 240
MW.

1969 France constructed eight story parabolic solar furnace.


1978 NASA's Lewis Research Center (now NASA Glenn) dedicated a solar power
system that it installed on the Papago [Tonono O'odham] Indian Reservation
in Schuchuli, Arizona. It was the world's first solar-powered village. The system
provided power for water pumping and residential electricity to 15 homes
until 1983, when grid power reached the village.
1980 U.S. Windpower installed the world's first wind farm, consisting of 20 wind
turbines rated at 30 kilowatts each, on the shoulder of Crotched Mountain in
southern New Hampshire.

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1981 Solar One, the first large
scale solar-thermal power
plant begins operation in
Daggett, California

2008 The first commercial scale cellulosic ethanol plant goes into production.

B. Philippine Setting

Year Description
1942 The Caliraya Hydroelectric Plant was built by the National Power
Corporation capable of producing 23.5 MW power
1946 Botocan Hydroelectric Power Plant was established
1962 Philppine Commision on Volcanology
(COMVOL) investigates the country’s potential
to produce geothermal energy

Dr. Arturo Alcaraz, known as the Father of


Philippine Geothermal Energy successfully
performed an experiment (Tiwi Experiment) to
lit up a light bulb at the footstep of Mt. Mayon
which became a benchmark for the
geothermal power era.
1969 The 2.5 kW geothermal pilot plant was commissioned in Tiwi, Albay

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1973 Philippine National Oil Company (PNOC) was
created to support commercialization of
alternative energy.

1979 Tiwi Geothermal Plant was commissioned. This was the first commercial
geothermal power plant established in the Philippines

RA 6957 also known as Build, Operate Transfer (BOT) Law was enacted which
led to establishment of numerous geothermal power plant in the Philippines
including MakBan Palinpinon, and Tongonan.
2001 RA 9136 also known as Electric Power Industry and Reform Act (EPIRA) to
modernize energy systems and infrastructure in the country.
2005 Bangui Wind Farm, the first wind
power plant in the country was built
harnessing 33 MW of energy.

2008 RA 9513 also known as Renewable Energy Act was enacted to promote the
development, utilization and commercialization of renewable energy.
2014 Burgos Wind Farm in Ilocos
Norte was built with an a
capacity of 150 MW

San Carlos Solar Energy Inc.


opened the first
commercial solar power
plant in the Philippines

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2015 Calatagan Solar Farm was constructed which is capable of generating 63.3
MW of power

PRESENT STATUS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES

Global Setting

Photovoltaics grew faster than any other fuel in 2016, opening a new era for solar
power

 Renewables broke new records in 2016, largely as a result of booming solar


photovoltaics (PV) deployment in the People’s Republic of China
(hereafter, “China”) and around the world, driven by sharp cost reductions
and policy support. This performance forms the bedrock of our 2017-22
electricity forecast.
 Renewables represented almost two-thirds of new net electricity capacity
additions in 2016, with almost 165 gigawatts (GW) coming online.
 Last year, new solar PV capacity around the world grew by 50%, reaching
over 74 GW, with China accounting for almost half of this expansion.
 For the first time, solar PV additions rose faster than any other fuel, surpassing
the net growth in coal. This deployment was accompanied by the
announcement of record-low auction prices as low as USD 30/megawatts

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per hour (MWh). Annual capacity growth of wind declined by almost one-
fifth in 2016, following the 2015 boom caused by a developer rush in China.
 Hydropower capacity expansion was lower than in 2015 as the Chinese
market declined for a third year in a row, while Brazil saw strong growth. The
growth of other renewable technologies such as bioenergy, concentrating
solar power (CSP), and geothermal was relatively slow, and it represented
only 4% of 2016 global renewable capacity additions.

Despite policy uncertainty, the United States remains the second-largest growth
market for renewables.
The main drivers remain strong for new onshore wind and solar capacities,
such as multiyear federal tax incentives combined with renewable portfolio
standards as well as state-level policies for distributed solar PV. Still, the
current uncertainty over proposed federal tax reforms, international trade,
and energy policies could have implications for the relative economics of
renewables and alter their expansion over our forecast period.

FUTURE TRENDS IN RENEWABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES


A. Global Setting
Between 2017 and 2022, we expect global renewable electricity capacity to
expand by over 920 GW, an increase of 43%.

This forecast is more optimistic than last year, mainly because of upward revisions
for solar PV in China and India. China alone is responsible for 40% of global
renewable capacity growth, which is largely driven by concerns about air
pollution and capacity targets that were outlined in the country’s 13th five-year
plan to 2020. In fact, China already surpassed its 2020 solar PV target, and we
expect it to exceed its wind target in 2019. China is also the world market leader
in hydropower and, bioenergy for electricity and heat, as well as electric vehicles.

Solar PV is entering a new era.

For the next five years, solar PV represents the largest annual capacity additions
for renewables, well above wind and hydro. This marks a turning point and
underpins our more optimistic solar PV forecast which is revised up by over one-

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third compared to last year’s report. This revision is driven by continuous
technology cost reductions and unprecedented market dynamics in China as a
consequence of policy changes. As a result, by 2022, total solar PV capacity
around the world reaches 740 GW in our main case forecast, which is more than
the combined total power capacities of India and Japan today.

China is a critical actor in the market development and prices for solar PV
worldwide.

Today, the country represents half of global solar PV demand, while Chinese
companies account for around 60% of total annual solar cell manufacturing
capacity globally. As such, market and policy developments in China will have
global implications for solar PV demand, supply, and prices.

If uncertainties and barriers are addressed, solar PV growth could accelerate


even more.

Two important challenges in China – the growing cost of renewable subsidies and
grid integration – limit growth in the main case forecast. China’s renewable
energy policies are being modified quite substantially in order to address these
challenges. China is moving away from its feed-in-tariff (FIT) programme to a
quota system with green certificates. Together with ambitious power market
reform, new transmission lines, and the expansion of distributed generation, these
new policies are expected to speed up deployment of solar (and wind).
However, the timing and implementation of this policy transition remains
uncertain. Our accelerated case forecast assumes that governments address
policy challenges and lift barriers to deployment, leading to more rapid growth.
Accordingly, solar PV in China could reach a total of 320 GW by 2022, equivalent
to the total capacity of Japan. This also has global implications: combined with
possible policy and regulatory improvements in other key countries such India,
Japan and the United States, world solar PV cumulative capacity could almost
triple to 880 GW by 2022.

India’s forecast is more optimistic as it moves to address the financial health of its
utilities and to tackle grid-integration issues.

By 2022, India is expected to more than double its current renewable electricity
capacity. For the first time, this growth over the forecast period is higher than the
European Union. Solar PV and wind together represent 90% of India’s capacity

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growth as auctions yielded some of the world’s lowest prices for both
technologies. In some Indian states, these recent contract prices are comparable
to coal tariffs. India’s accelerated case indicates that renewable capacity
expansion could be boosted by almost a third, providing that existing grid
integration and infrastructure challenges are addressed, policy and regulatory
uncertainties are reduced, and costs continue to fall. This deployment path could
put India’s growth on par with the United States, thus becoming the joint second-
largest growth market after China.

The growth in solar PV helps bridge the electrification gap in developing Asia and
sub-Saharan Africa.

For the first time, our report tracks off-grid solar PV applications more closely in
developing Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. Over the forecast period, off-grid
capacity in these regions will almost triple – reaching over 3 000 MW in 2022 – from
industrial applications, solar home systems (SHSs), and minigrids driven by
government electrification programmes, and private sector investments.
Although this growth represents a small share of total PV capacity installed in both
regions, its socio-economic impact is nonetheless significant. We estimate that
over the next five years, SHSs – the most dynamic sector in the off-grid segment –
will bring basic electricity services to almost 70 million more people in Asia and
sub-Saharan Africa. It will also lead to new business players bringing innovative
payment solutions that allow low-income populations initial access to electricity
services.

Announced auction prices for wind and solar have continued to fall although
average generation costs of new-built projects remain higher.

Over the period 2017-22 global average generation costs are estimated to further
decline by a quarter for utility-scale solar PV; by almost 15% for onshore wind; and
by a third for offshore wind. Still, these average costs for solar PV remain relatively
high because of high FITs in China and Japan as well as relatively elevated
investment costs in the United States. Meanwhile, announced auction prices
indicate much steeper possible cost reductions, ranging from USD 30- 45/MWh for
solar PV (India, Mexico, United Arab Emirates, Argentina) to USD 35-50/MWh for
onshore wind (India, Morocco, Egypt, Turkey, Chile). Auctions are also proving

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effective in rapidly reducing costs of offshore wind and CSP. While auction
announcements (in terms of both volumes and prices) need to be verified over
time, they suggest that expanding competitive pricing could result in even lower
average costs in coming years.

Wind and solar together will represent more than 80% of global renewable
capacity growth in the next five years.

By 2022, Denmark is expected to be the world leader, with almost 70% of its
electricity generation coming from variable renewables. In some European
countries (Ireland, Germany and the United Kingdom), the share of wind and solar
in total generation will exceed 25%. In China, India and Brazil, the share of variable
generation is expected to double to over 10% in just five years. These trends have
important implications going forward. Without a simultaneous increase in system
flexibility (grid reinforcement and interconnections, storage, demand-side
response and other flexible supply), variable renewables are more exposed to the
risk of losing system value at increasing shares of market penetration since
wholesale prices are depressed precisely when wind and solar production is
abundant and demand is low. Market and policy frameworks need to evolve in
order to cope simultaneously with multiple objectives, including providing long-
term price signals to attract investment, ensuring efficient short-term electricity
dispatching, pricing negative externalities, and unlocking sufficient levels of
flexibility as well as fostering a portfolio of dispatchable renewable technologies,
including hydropower, bioenergy, geothermal and CSP.

Biofuels remain the champion of renewables in transport while the share of


electric vehicles grows

The share of renewables in road transport is expected to increase only marginally,


from over 4% in 2016 to almost 5% in 2022.

Biofuels and electric vehicles (EVs) are complementary options to achieve


transport sector decarbonisation with renewables. Despite strongly rising sales, the
share of EVs remains limited, and biofuels are still expected to represent over 90%
of total renewable energy consumption in road transport by 2022. Biofuels
production is expected to grow by over 16% over the forecast period. Asia leads
this growth due to the rising demand for transport fuel, the availability of

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feedstocks, and supportive government policies. Brazil makes a key contribution
as a result of its efforts to increase sustainable biofuels consumption in line with its
national target for 2030. In the United States, ethanol and biodiesel production
also expands as a result of supportive policy frameworks. Modest growth is
expected in the European Union given that the policy landscape after 2020 is not
expected to encourage industry investment. Advanced biofuels (such as
cellulosic ethanol) have made important progress in recent years but are not yet
competitive with petroleum products. Production is expected to increase
sevenfold from a low base, which is still just over 1% of total biofuels production.

With a more favourable market and policy landscape, biofuel production could
be 13% higher.

For the first time, we provide accelerated case forecast for biofuels that assumes
additional investment in new production capacity in Brazil; scaling up fuel
distribution infrastructure in the United States; and roll-out of a blending
programme in India. Still, in this accelerated case, the share of renewables in road
transport fuel demand would only reach just over 5% by 2022.

B. Philippine Setting
As the country faces the realities of growing energy demand, tight energy supply,
limited foreign investments and critical power development issues, the
Department of Energy released the Philippine Energy Plan highlighting the plans
and programs of the energy sector to fuel support for the economic growth of
the country for the period 2009-2030. Specifically, the Plan will deal with the future
of energy development which is very vital to the country’s prosperity.

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The base load power plants are predominantly geothermal, natural gas, and coal
in Luzon. For the Visayas region, base load plants are coal and geothermal. For
the Mindanao region, base load plants comprise hydro, solar, coal and
geothermal. Base load power plants are the facilities used to meet some or all of
a given continuous energy demand and produce energy at a constant rate,
usually at a lower cost relative to other facilities. The total generation is about
67,743 Gigawatt- hours. About 26.3% was contributed by renewable energy.

It is hoped that the current research efforts in ocean energy research may
displace 20% to 30% of the current diesel generation of electric power for our
islands, of about 100MW diesel power barges. Tidal power current is currently
being measured and yield potential is being established. As small 10KW tidal
stream proto-type is on test by BRM Power systems. Wind projects too, 16MW
Horizontal Wind Turbine systems are intended to displace diesel power
generation. Small power wind system deployment (500W- 2KW) too for the local
organic, off grid for electricity is a target for rural farming communities.

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