COMEX Gold – December’10 – Daily Briefing

Thursday, September 02, 2010

Supports Resistances
1245.7 1250.0
*1244.0* *1252.5*
1238.9 1256.6
1233.5 *1262.4*
*1228.5* 1267.0
*1224.9* *1270.6*
1220.2 1279.9
*1213.6* 1281.4

Open 1250.3
High 1256.6
Low 1244.0
Close 1248.0

Technical outlook for Dec’10 Contract

Market yesterday hit a fresh high but pulled back to close lower, posting a spinning top like candle pattern on the daily
chart, with relatively higher volumes over the day, which suggests upside to be weaker but also market to see a rise in
volatility today.
Last 2 days market is held below the upper bollinger band on the daily chart. Bands today provide levels at 1253.4,
1236.9 and 1220.4.
Short-term EMAs slope upwards in positive setup, with 5-Day EMA at 1245.7, 9-day EMA at 1241.0, 14-Day EMA at
1235.4 and 20-Day EMA at 1229.9. 5-Day EMA was tested and held downside yesterday. A break below 5-day EMA
can see test of EMAs downside.
OBV showing divergence with the high yesterday, which suggests market to see a rise in selling pressure on move
upside.
RSI and Stochastics showing a divergence with yesterday’s high and near overbought levels, suggests upside to be
weaker and market to be vulnerable for correction. MACD is in positive setup, but with slope slowing upwards,
suggests market to see weakness to further upside.
Market profile shows a weaker setup for the market today, with yesterday’s close below the value area, but the initial
balance today entering into value area yesterday suggests market to see test of levels upside. PoC yesterday is at 1248.5,
seen as pivot level for today, with levels to watch upside at 1250.0 and 1252.9, with 1255.9 as key level. Downside
below value area 1246.5 can expect weakness further towards 1241.0 and 1238.5, with 1236.5 as key level for near-
term, break of which can expect near-term downside for the market.
For today, market is seen in mixed setup, expected to see test of levels downside, with initial support at the low
yesterday at 1244.0. Move below it can expect test of near-term line support at 1242.2 today, break of which can expect
weakness continue, with week’s open 1238.9 and week’s low 1233.5 to be watched, with support at swing level 1228.5.
Initial resistance today is at 1250.3 level, followed by line at 1252.5, which is expected to hold for market to see halt of
upside. Move above it can expect upside to test high yesterday 1256.6 and close above it can see further upside near-
term towards 1262.4, which is a key level, above which can expect fresh high above the previous high 1270.6.
News and Fundamental view
Gold pulled back from a 2 months high yesterday, taking note of a strong U.S. manufacturing data.
According to data, ETFs worldwide added 0.1% to holdings, taking total holdings to 66,917,971 ounces. SPDR GLD
added 0.1%, while iShares added 0.4% to their holdings. A rise in holdings of the world's main gold ETFs points to
strong appetite for gold as investment.
Market may see some pressure on position clearing these two days, with focus on the U.S. Labor Department, which is
scheduled to release jobs data on Sept. 3, with unemployment expected to climb to 9.6 percent this month from 9.5
percent in July. Further signs of weakness in the US economy could raise expectations for further quantitative easing to
combat slower growth, raising interest in gold as a hedge against inflation.