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CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

1.1 Definition and classification of statistics


Definition:
 Statistics is a collection of numerical facts and data.
 Statistics is a mathematical science dealing with the methods of collection,
organizing the collected data, presentation, analysis and interpretation of the data.
 Statistics is a subject that deals with numbers and figures describing certain
situations. It primarily deals with numerical data taken by surveys and
summarizes these data in such a way that this summary gives a good indication
about the nature of the data.

The word “statistics” could be singular or plural. The definition given in the second
place above might be taken as the singular form of “statistics”.
Statistics, in its singular sense is a subject area or field of study. It is defined as science,
which deals with the collection, processing, analysis, interpretation and presentation of
numerical facts.

The subjects of statistics, as it seems, is not a new discipline but it is as old as the human
society itself. The sphere of its utility, however, was very much restricted.

The word “statistics” is derived from the Latin for “state” indicating the historical
importance of governmental data gathering, which related to demographic information
(military recruitment and tax collecting). Thus, the scope of statistics in the ancient times
was primarily limited to the collection of demographic and property and wealth data of a
country by governments for framing military and fiscal policies.

Now days, statistics is used almost in every field of study, such as natural science, social
science engineering, medicine, agriculture, e t c.

Classification:
Statistics is broadly divided into two categories based on how the collected data are
used.
1. Descriptive Statistics
 deals with describing data without attempting to infer anything that goes beyond the
given set of data,
 consists of collection, organization, summarization and presentation of data.

2. Inferential Statistics
 deals with making inferences and/or conclusions about a population based on data
obtained from a limited sample of observations,
 consists of performing hypothesis testing, determining relationships among variables
and making predictions.

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Examples:
a) From past figures, it has been predicted that 31 0 0 of registered voters will vote in the
November election.
b) The average age of a student in Hawassa University is 20.1 years.
c) To determine the most effective dose of a new medication (on the basis of tests
performed with volunteer patients from selected hospitals)
d) To compare the effectiveness of two reducing diets (based on the weights losses of
persons who were taking the diets)
e) There is a relationship between smoking tobacco and an increased risk of developing
cancer.

1.2 Definition of some basic terms

a) Population: Is the totality (collection) of all objects or items under


consideration. Example: All university students of Ethiopia All staff
members of Debub University.
b) Sample: Is a part of a population taken so that some generation about the
population can be made A sample should be a representative of the
population. Example :
c) Parameter: is a descriptive measure of a population, or summary value
calculated from a population. Examples: Average, Range, proportion,
variance,
d) Statistic: is a descriptive measure of a sample, or summary value calculated
from a sample.
Example: Average, Range, proportion, variance …

1.3 Application and limitation of statistics

Statistics can be applied in any field of study which seeks quantitative evidence. For
instance (in engineering)

 To compare the breaking strength of two types of materials


 To determine the probability of reliability of a product.
 To control the quality of products in a given production process.
 To compare the improvement f yield due to certain additives (fertilizer,
herbicides, (wee decides), e t c

However, Statistics has the following limitations.

a) It dose not study qualitative characteristics directly Examples: Beauty, honesty,


poverty, and standard of living.
b) It dose not study a single individual but deals with aggregate of facts. Example:
The population size of a country for some given year dose not help us for
comparative studies.

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c) Statistical results are true only on the average. Examples: The probability of
getting a head in tossing a coin is 1|2 the germination percentage of a given
variety of seed is 80%
d) It is sensitive for misuse: Examples: The number of car accidents committed in
a city in a particular year by women drivers is 10 while that committed by men
drivers is 40. Hence women drivers are safe drivers.
The Indian tale of family members closing a river is a good example.

1.4 TYPES OF VARIABLES AND MEASUREMENT SCALES

A variable is a characteristic of an object that can have different possible values.


There are two types of variables.

a) Quantitative variables: are variables that can be quantified or can have


numerical values. Examples: height, area, income, temperature e t c.
b) Qualitative variables: are variables that can not be quantified directly.
Examples: colour , beauty, sex, location qualitative variables are also called
categorical variables. And hence we have two types of data; quantitative &
qualitative data.

Qualitative variables can be further classified as


 Discrete variables, and
 Continuous variables

a) Discrete variables are variables whose values are counts.


Examples: number of students, number of households (family size), Number of
pages of a book.
b) Continuous variables are variables that can have any value within an interval.

Examples: weight, Length, Volume, e t c.

There are four types of measurement scales for variables

1. Nominal scale: - “Nominal “is a Latin word for “name” This is a scale for
grouping individuals into different categories.
Examples: red, brown, black, short, tall, pass, fail
 In this scale, one is different from the other
 +, -, *, /, Impossible, comparison is impossible
2. Ordinal scale: - “ ordinal” is a Latin word, meaning “order”

 It is a scale for grouping and ordering of individuals in to different


categories.
 Data consisting of an ordering of ranking of measurements are said
to be on an ordinal scale of measurements.
Examples: Faster, taller, shorter, military ranks, ranks in race, e t c.

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 One is different from and grater /better/ less than the
other.
 +, -, *, / Are impossible, comparison is possible.

Man a weighs more than man B


Ethiopian athletes got 1st and 2nd ranks in the 10,000m women‟s final in Sydney.
Ordinal scales data contain and convey more information than the nominal scale data, for
relative magnitudes are known, however, quantitative comparisons are impossible.

3. Interval scale: is a measurement scale in which:


 There is no true zero point (arbitrary zero paint)
 There is no physical significance to the zero point.
 There is a constant interval size between any adjacent units on the
measurement scale.
Example: oc oF (Measuring units of temperature)

 In this measurement scale

One is different, better/greater and by a certain amount of difference than another


(Possible to add and subtract but multiplication and division are not possible)
37Oc – 35oc = 2oc
45oc – 43 oc= 2oc
40oc = 2(20oc) But this does not imply that an object which is 40 oc is twice as hot as
an object which is 20 oc (oF = 9/5, oc +32)
40 oc → 9/5 x 40 oc + 32 = 104 oF
20 oc → 9/5 x20 oc + 32 = 68 oF

Oc = 5/9 (oF- 32)

60 oF→ 5/9 (60 – 32) = 15.56 oc


30 oF→ 5/9 (30 - 32) = -1.11 oc

 Interval scale data convey better information than nominal and ordinal scale data.

4. Ratio scale: is a measurement scale in which

There is a constant interval size between any adjacent units on the measurement
scale.
 There exists a zero point on the measurement scale and that there is a physical
significance to this zero point.
Examples: m, cm, kg, km/hr, cm/sec
Year, hour, second, ok, m3, e t c.

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 One is different, larger /taller/ better/ less by a certain amount of difference and so
much times than the other.
 (+, -, *, / Are possible on this scale)
 This measurement scale provides better information than interval scale of
measurement

1.5 Sources of data and methods of data collection

Any aggregate of numbers cannot be called statistical data. We say an aggregate of


numbers is statistical data when they are
 Comparable
 Meaningful and
 Collected for a well defined objective
Raw data: are collected data, which have not been organized numerically.
Examples: 25, 10, 32, 18, 6, 93, 4.
An array: is an arrangement of raw numerical data in ascending or descending order of
magnitude.
 It enables us to know the rang of the data set easy and it also gives us some
idea about the general characteristics of the distribution.

Any scientific investigation requires data related to the study. The required data can be
obtained from either a primary source or a secondary source.

Primary source: Is a source of data that supplies first hand information for the use of
the immediate purpose.

 Primary data: are data originally collected for the immediate purpose.
- Primary data are more expensive than secondary data.
Secondary source: are individuals or agencies, which supply data originally collected
for other purposes by them or others.
- Usually they are published or unpublished materials, records, reports, e t c.
 Secondary data: data collected from a secondary source.
The process of data collection from a primary source may in value.

a) Field trials
b) Laboratory experiments
c) Surveys – census survey
- Sample survey.

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Chapter Two
Organization and Methods of Data Presentation
2.1 Classification and Tabulation of Data
Classification: - is the process of arranging items/data into classes or categories according to their
similarities and/or differences.

Classification eliminates inconsistency and also brings out the points of similarity and/or
dissimilarity of collected items/data.

Classification is necessary because it would not be possible to0 draw inferences and conclusions
if we have a large set of collected [raw] data.

2.2 Frequency Distributions


Frequency: - is the number of times a certain value or set of values occurs in a specific group.
0
A frequency distribution is a table that presents data according to some criteria with the
corresponding number of items falling in each class (i.e. with the corresponding frequencies.)

Example: A frequency distribution presenting the number of males and females in a class
Sex Frequency
Male 57
Female 39

Generally, there are two basic types of frequency distributions: Ungrouped and Grouped
frequency distributions.

1. Ungrouped frequency distribution


Ungrouped frequency distribution is a table of all potential raw scored values that could possibly
occur in the data along with their corresponding frequencies. Ungrouped frequency distribution is
often constructed for small set of data\ or a discrete variable.

Constructing an ungrouped frequency distribution


To construct an ungrouped frequency distribution, first find the smallest and the largest raw
scores in the collected data. Then make a columnar table of all potential raw scored values
arranged in order of magnitude with the number of times a particular value is repeated, i.e., the
frequency of that value. To facilitate counting method, tallies can be used.

Example: The following data are the ages in years of 20 women who attend health education last
year: 30, 41, 39, 41, 32, 29, 35, 31, 30, 36, 33, 36, 32, 42, 30, 35, 37, 32, 30, and 41.
Construct a frequency distribution for these data.
STEP 1. Find the range of the data:
Range  Maximumobservation  Minimumobservation
STEP 2. Construct a table, tally the data and complete the frequency column. The frequency
distribution becomes as follows.

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Age Tally Frequency
29 / 1
30 //// 4
31 / 1
32 /// 3
33 / 1
35 // 2
36 // 2
37 / 1
39 / 1
41 /// 3
42 / 1

2. Grouped frequency distribution


When the range of the data is large, the data must be grouped into classes. Grouped frequency
distribution is a frequency distribution when several numbers of data are grouped into one class.

Some Important Definitions


– Raw data: data collected in original form.
– Array: data arranged, in ascending or descending order.
– Class: the different, on overlapping groups of data.
– Class limits: separate one class in a grouped frequency distribution from another. The limits
could actually appear in the collected data and have gaps between the limit of one class and
the lower limit of the next class.
– Class boundaries: separate one class in a grouped frequency distribution from another. The
boundaries have one more decimal place than the raw data and therefore do not appear in the
collected data. There is on gap between the upper boundary of one class and the lower
boundary of the next class. The lower class boundary (LCB) is found by subtracting 0.5 units
of measurement from the lower class limit (LCL) and the upper class boundary (UCB) is
found by adding 0.5 units of measurement to the upper class limit (UCL).
That is, LCB=LCL+ 1 2 U and UCB =UCL + 1 2 U
– Class width (W): the difference between the upper and lower boundaries of any class or the
lower limits of two consecutive classes, or the upper limits of two consecutive classes.
N.B. Class width is not equal to the difference between UCL and LCL of the same class.
– Class mark (M): the mid point of a class interval.
UCBi  LCB i
i.e. M
2
– Unit of measurement (U): the smallest difference between any two values of the variable
being measured.
– Cumulative frequency (Cf) less than type: the total frequency of all values (observations) less
than or equal to the upper class boundary for the given class.
– Cumulative frequency (Cf) more than type: The total frequency of all values (observations)
greater than or equal to the lower class boundary for the given class.

A tabular arrangement of class intervals together with their corresponding cumulative


frequency (either less than or more than type; as defined above) is called a cumulative
frequency distribution.
– Relative frequency: the frequency a class divided by the total frequency (i.e. sum of all
frequencies) and, if multiplied by 100, gives the percent of values falling in that class.

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Frequencyof that class
Re lative frequencyof a class 
Total frequency
Note:
 The relative frequency shows what fractional part or proportion of the total frequency
belongs to the corresponding class.
 The sum of all the relative frequencies in the frequency distribution is always 1.
– Relative cumulative frequency (less than type/ more than type): total of the relative frequencies
above/ below a class inclusively. Or the cumulative frequency (less than type/more than type)
divided by the total frequency. This gives the percent of values which are less than/more than
the upper/lower class boundary.

Guidelines to construct a grouped frequency distribution


STEP 1. Determine the unit of measurement, U
STEP 2. Find the maximum(Max) and the minimum(Min) observation, and then compute their
range, R Range  Max  Min
STEP 3. Fix the number of classes desired (k). there are two ways to fix k:
– Fix k arbitrarily between 6 and 20, or
– Use Sturge‟s Formula: k  1 3.332 log10 N where N is the total frequency. And
round this value of k up to get an integer number.
STEP 4. Find the class widths (W) by dividing the range by the number of classes and round the
number up to get an integer value. W R
K
STEP 5. Pick a suitable starting point less than or equal to the minimum value. This starting point
is the lower limit of the first class. Continue to add the class width to this lower limit to
get the rest of the lower limits.
STEP 6. Find the upper class limits. To find the upper class limit of the first claa, subtract one unit
of measurement from the lower limit of the second class. Then continue to add the class
width to this upper limit so as to get the rest of the upper limits.
STEP 7. Compute the class boundaries as: LCB  LCL  12 U and UCB  UCL  12 U
Where LCL = lower class limit, UCL= upper class limit, LCB= lower class boundary and UCB=
upper class boundary. The class boundaries are also half way between the upper limit of one class
and the lower limit of the next class.
STEP 8. Tally the data.
STEP 9. Find the frequencies.
STEP 10. (If necessary) Find the cumulative frequencies (more than and less than types).
Example: The number of hours 40 employees spends on their job for the last 7 working days is given
below.
62 50 35 36 31 43 43 43
41 31 65 30 41 58 49 41
37 62 27 47 65 50 45 48
27 53 40 29 63 34 44 32
58 61 38 41 26 50 47 37
Construct a suitable frequency distribution for these data using 8 classes.
STEP 1. Unit of measurement; U= 1year
STEP 2. Max = 65, Min = 26 so that R = 65-26 = 39
STEP 3. It is already determined to construct a frequency distribution having 8 classes.
STEP 4. Class width W  39  4.875  5
5
STEP 5. Starting point = 26 = lower limit of the first class. And hence the lower class limits become

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26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61
STEP 6. Upper limit of the first class = 31-1 = 30. And hence the upper class limits become
30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65
The lower and the upper class limits (Steps 5 and 6) can be written as follows.
Class limits
26 – 30
31 – 35
36 – 40
41 – 45
46 – 50
51 – 55
56 – 60
61 – 65
STEP 7. By subtracting 0.5 units of measurement from the lower class limits and by adding 0.5 units
of measurement to the upper class limits, we can get lower and upper class boundaries as
follows.
Class
boundaries
25.5 – 30.5
30.5 – 35.5
35.5– 40.5
40.5– 45.5
45.5– 50.5
50.5– 55.5
55.5– 60.5
60.5– 65.5
STEPS 8, 9 and 10 are displayed in the following table (columns 3, 4 and 5&6 respectively).
Class limits Class Tally frequency Cumulative Cumulative
boundaries frequency (less frequency
than type) (more than type)
26 – 30 25.5 – 30.5 ///// 5 5 40
31 – 35 30.5 – 35.5 ///// 5 10 35
36 – 40 35.5– 40.5 ///// 5 15 30
41 – 45 40.5– 45.5 ///// //// 9 24 25
46 – 50 45.5– 50.5 ///// // 7 31 16
51 – 55 50.5– 55.5 / 1 32 9
56 – 60 55.5– 60.5 // 2 34 8
61 – 65 60.5– 65.5 ///// / 6 40 6

2.3 Diagrammatic and Graphic Presentation of Data


The data that is presented by a frequency distribution can also be displayed diagrammatically or
graphically.
Diagrams and graphs:
- are techniques for presenting data in visual displays using geometric figures;
- are visual aids which give a bird‟s eye view about a given set of numerical data;
- have greater attraction than mere figures (numbers);
- facilitate comparison of data;
- are easily understandable by anyone who does have no statistical background
Usually diagrams are appropriate for presenting discrete data, whereas graphs are appropriate for
presenting continuous types of data.

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There are three common diagrammatic presentations of data: bar-diagram/charts, pie-chart and
pictograms, as well as three common graphic presentations of data: histogram, frequency
polygon, and cumulative frequency polygon (ogive).

I. Bar-diagrams/ Bar-charts
- Bar-diagram is a series of equally spaced bars having equal width and the height of each bar
representing the magnitude or frequency of observations in each group.
- Bar-diagrams are usually used to represent one way or simple frequency distribution.
- Bar-diagrams can be drawn either horizontally or vertically. Usually horizontal bar-diagrams
are used for qualitatively classified data whereas vertical bar-diagrams are used for
quantitatively classified data.

Example: Horizontal bar-diagram.

AB
Blood Type

8 10 12 14 16 18

Frequency

There are a number of bar-diagrams. The most common are:


- Simple bar-diagrams
- Deviation (two-way) bar-diagrams
- Broken bar-diagrams
- Component (subdivided) bar-diagrams
- Multiple bar-diagrams
1. Simple bar-diagrams
Simple bar-diagrams are used to depict data of single variable or one-way variable.

Example: The following frequency distribution shows sales of production (in million birr) of
three products for 2004 production year.
Product Sale (in million)
A 14
B 21
C 9
jjmmmmmmmmmD 17
The bar-diagram presentation for these data is given below.

10
22

20

18

16
Sales (in million birr)

14

12

10

6
A B C D

Product

2. Deviation bar-diagrams
When the data take both positive and negative values (for instance data on profit, net export,
percent change, etc) deviation bar-diagrams are appropriate.

Example: Present the following data using a suitable bar-diagram.

Data: Net profit (in thousands birr) in oil sales for five years
Year Profit (in
thousands)
1997 12
199 -5
1999 14
2000 9
2001 -6
The deviation bar-diagram for the data looks like the following.
20
Profit (in thousands)

10

-10
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

Year

3. Broken bar-diagrams
This kind of bar-diagram is used to present data involving a few extreme values where it will be
difficult to accommodate the magnitude of the bars corresponding to these values within the
graph paper. In this case we use pieces of bars with each piece starting with a jump on the
numerical scale.

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Example: Data: - Amount of production per a day for four products of a factory.

Product Quantity
produced (kg/day)
A 14
B 35
C 23
D 109
4. Component bar-diagrams
When it is desired to show how a total (an aggregate) is divided into component parts, we use
component bar diagram. In such type of bar-diagrams, the bars represent aggregate value of a
variable with each aggregate broken into its component parts and different colors or designs are
used for identification.

Example: Represent the following data using bar-charts


Data: Yields of production of farmers in Southern Ethiopia.
Year  1990 EC 1991 EC 1992 EC 1993 EC
Crop
Barley 14 15 26 19
Wheat 10 15 14 25
Maize 2 6 10 3
Total 26 36 50 47

The component bar-diagram for this table is as follows


60

50
Production

40

30

20

MAIZE
10
WHAET

0 BARLEY
1990 1991 1992 1993

YEAR

5. Multiple bar-diagrams
Multiple bar-diagrams are used to display data on more than one variable. They are used for
comparing different variables at the same time.

Example: The data given in the above example can be presented by using multiple bar-diagram as
below.

12
30

20
Production

10

BARLEY

WHAET

0 MAIZE
1990 1991 1992 1993

YEAR

II. Pie-charts
A pie-chart is a circle that is divided into sections or wedgrs according to the percentages of
frequencies in each category of the distribution. The angle of the sector of a class is obtained by
multiplying the ratio of the frequency of the class to the total frequency by 360 0.
frequencyof the class
i.e. sec tor angleof a class   3600
total frequency
Note that pie-charts are usually used for depicting nominal level data.

Example: A survey showed that a car owner spends birr 2,950 per year on operating expenses.
Below is the breakdown of the various expenditure items. Draw an appropriate chart to portray
the data.

Expenditure item Amount (in


birr)
Fuel 603
Interest on car loan 279
Repairs 930
Insurance and license 646
Depreciation 492
Total 2,950

How to draw a pie-chart


- First find the percentages of each class
- Next calculate the degree measures for each class
- Finally, using a protractor, put each sector /degree measure/ in a circle and give a key for
explanation.

Expenditure item Amount (in Percentage Degree


birr) (approx) (approx)
Fuel 603 20 74
Interest on car loan 279 9 34
Repairs 930 32 113
Insurance and license 646 22 79
Depreciation 492 17 60
Total 2,950 100 360

Now we can draw the pie-chart for the data.

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17% 20%
Key
Fuel
Insurance and license
9% 22%
Repairs
Interest on car loan
Depreciation
32%

III. Pictograms
In pictograms, we represent the data by means of some picture symbols. Here we decide a
suitable picture to represent a definite number of units in which the variable is measured.

Example: Draw a pictorial diagram to present the following data (number of students in a certain
school for four years.)

Year 1992 1993 1994 1995


No. of students 2000 3000 5000 7000

Let a single picture () represents one thousand students.

1995 
1994  Key: = 1000 students
1993 
1992 

IV. Histogram
A histogram is another way of data presentation which is more suitable for frequency
distributions with continuous classes.
In drawing a pictogram, we put the class boundaries of each class on the horizontal axis and its
respective frequency on the vertical axis.

Example: Draw a histogram presenting the following data.

Frequency Cumulative Cumulative


Class Boundaries Class Mark Frequency (less Frequency (more
than type) than type)
5.5 – 11.5 8.5 2 2 20
11.5 – 17.5 14.5 2 4 18
17.5 – 23.5 20.5 7 11 16
23.5 – 29.5 26.5 4 15 9

14
29.5 – 35.5 32.5 3 18 5
35.5 – 41.5 38.5 2 20 2

V. Frequency Polygon
A frequency polygon is a line graph drawn by taking the frequencies of the classes along the
vertical axis and their respective class marks along the horizontal axis. Then join the cross points
by a free hand curve.

Example: Present the data in the previous example using a frequency polygon.
10

6
Frequency

0
0.0 8.50 14.50 20.50 26.50 32.50 38.50

Class Marks

VI. Cumulative Frequency Polygon (Ogive)


Cumulative frequency polygon can be traced on less than or more than cumulative frequency
basis. Place the class boundaries along the horizontal axis and the corresponding cumulative
frequencies (either less than or more than cumulative frequencies) along the vertical axis. Then
join the cross points by a free hand curve.

Example: the data in the previous example can be presented using either a less than or a more
than cumulative frequency polygon as given below (i) and (ii) respectively.
(i) Less than type cumulative frequency polygon

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Less than type cumulative frequencies

20

10

0
11.50 17.50 23.50 29.50 35.50 41.50

Upper class boundaries

(ii) More than type cumulative frequency polygon

15
30
More than type cumulative frequencies

20

10

0
5.50 11.50 17.50 23.50 29.50 35.50

Lower class boundaries

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Chapter Three
MEASURES OF CENTRAL TENDENCY

3.1 Objectives of Measuring Central Tendency


The most important aspect of studying the distribution of a sample measurement is the position of
the central value, that is, a representative value about which the measurements are distributed and
when it is convenient to have one figure that is representative of each group. This figure is known
as the average of the group. If the numbers of the group are arranged in order of magnitude, the
averages tend to fall around the central position in the group, so averages are called measures of
central tendency. In short, any measure intended to represent the center of data set is called a
measure of location or central tendency.

The most important objectives of measuring central tendency are:


 To determining a single value around which the other data will concentrate
 To summarizing/reducing the volume of the data
 To facilitating comparison within one group or between groups of data

Desirable properties of measure of central tendency


We say a measure of central tendency is best if it posses most of the following. It should:
- be simple to understand and easy to calculate/interpret,
- exist and be unique,
- be rigidly defined by mathematical formula,
- be based on all observations,
- Not be seriously affected by extreme observations,
- Have capable of further statistical analysis and/or algebraic manipulation.
3.2 The Summation Notation (∑)
Let a data set consists of a number of observations, represents by x1 , x2 , ..., xn where n (the last
subscript) denotes the number of observations in the data and xi is the ith observation. Then the
sum

For instance a data set consisting of six measurements 21, 13, 54, 46, 32 and 37 is represented by
x1 , x2 , x3 , x4 , x5 and x6 where x1 = 21, x 2 = 13, x3 = 54, x 4 = 46, x5 = 32 and x6 = 37.
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Their sum becomes x
i 1
i  21+13+59+46+32+37=208.
n
Similarly x1  x 2  ...  x n =  xi
2 2 2 2

i 1
Some Properties of the Summation Notation
n
1.  c = n.c
i 1
where c is a constant number.
n n
2.  b.x
i 1
i  b xi where b is a constant number
i 1
n n
3.  (a  bxi )  n.a  b xi
i 1 i 1
where a and b are constant numbers

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n n n
4.  ( xi  y i )  xi   y i
i 1 i 1 i 1

3.3 Types of Measures of Central Tendency


Several types of averages or measures of central tendency can be defined, the most commons are
- the arithmetic mean or the mean
- the mode
- the median
The choice of average (measure of central tendency) depends upon which best represents the
property under discussion.
3.3.1. The Arithmetic Mean (The Mean)
The arithmetic mean is defined as the sum of the measurements of the items divided by the total
number of items.
Arithmetic Mean for Ungrouped Frequency Distribution
When the data are arranged or given on the form of ungrouped frequency distribution, then the
formula for the mean is

Example 1: You measure the body lengths (in inches) of 10 full-term infants at birth and record
the following:
17.5 19.5 17.5 19 20
21 18 19.5 18 10.75
Compute the sample mean length of the infants for these data.
Example 2: Monthly incomes of fourth year regular students are given in the following frequency
distribution.

Monthly income (birr) 54.5 64.5 74.5 84.5 94.5 104.5 114.5
Number of students 6 9 15 25 13 7 5
Compute the mean for these data.
Arithmetic Mean for Grouped Frequency Distribution
If data are given in the form of continuous frequency distribution, the sample mean can be
computed as

Where xi = the class mark of the i th class; i = 1, 2, …, k


f i = the frequency of the i th class and k = the number of classes
k
Note that f
i 1
i  n = the total number of observations.

Example: The following table gives the daily wages of laborers. Calculate the average daily
wages paid to a laborer.
Wages in birr 11-13 13-15 15-17 17-19 19-21 21-23 23-25
Number of laborers 3 4 5 6 6 4 3
Properties of the Arithmetic Mean

18
 The sum of the deviations of the items from their arithmetic mean is zero. This means, the
algebraic sum of the deviations of a set of numbers x1 , x2 , ..., xn from their mean x is zero.
n
That is  (x
i 1
i  x)  0

 The sum of the squares of the deviations of a set of observations from any number, say A, is
the least only when A= . That is,
 When a set of observations is divided into k groups and x1 is the mean of n1 observations of
group 1, x 2 is the mean of n 2 observations of group2, …, x k is the mean of nk observations
of group k , then the combined mean ,denoted by xc , of all observations taken together is
given by

 If a wrong figure has been used in calculating the mean, we can correct if we know the
correct figure that should have been used. Let
 denote the wrong figure used in calculating the mean
 be the correct figure that should have been used
 be the wrong mean calculated using , then the correct mean, , is given
by

 If the mean of x1 , x2 , ..., xn is x , then


a) the mean of x1  k , x2  k , ..., xn  k will be x  k
b) The mean of kx1 , kx2 , ..., kxn will be kx .
Example 1: Last year there were three sections taking Stat 273 course in Alemaya University. At
the end of the semester, the three sections got average marks of 80, 83 and 76. There were 28, 32
and 35 students in each section respectively. Find the mean mark for the entire students.
Solution:
n1 x1  n2 x2  n3 x3 28(80)  32(83)  35(76) 7556
xc     79.54
n1  n2  n3 28  32  35 95
Example 2: An average weight of 10 students was calculated to be 65 kg, but latter, it was
discovered that one measurement was misread as 40 kg instead of 80 kg. Calculate the corrected
average weight.

Solution:

Exercise: The average score on the mid-term examination of 25 students was 75.8 out of 100.
After the mid-term exam, however, a student whose score was 41 out of 100 dropped the course.
What is the average/mean score among the 24 students?
Weighted Arithmetic Mean
In finding arithmetic mean, all items were assumed to be of equal importance. When due
importance is to be given to each item, that is, when proper importance is required to be given to
different data, then we find weighted average. Weights are assigned to each item in proportion to
its relative importance.

19
If x1 , x2 , ..., xk represent values of the items and w1 , w2 , ... , wk are the corresponding weights,
then the weighted mean, ( xw ) is given by

Example: A student‟s final mark in Mathematics, Physics, Chemistry and Biology are
respectively 82, 80, 90 and 70.If the respective credits received for these courses are 3, 5, 3 and 1,
determine the approximate average mark the student has got for one course.
Solution: We use a weighted arithmetic mean, weight associated with each course being taken as
the number of credits received for the corresponding course.
xi 82 80 90 70
wi 3 5 3 1

Therefore x w 
w x i i

(3  82)  (5  80)  (3  90)  (1  70)
 82.17
w i 3  5  3 1
Average mark of the student for one course is approximately 82.

Merits of Arithmetic Mean


- Arithmetic mean is rigidly defined a mathematical formula so that its value is always definite.
- It is calculated based on all observations.
- Arithmetic mean is simple to calculate and easy to understand. It doesn‟t need arraying
(arranging in increasing or decreasing order) of the data.
- Arithmetic mean is also capable of further algebraic treatment.
- It affords a good standard of comparison.

Drawbacks of Arithmetic Mean


- It is highly affected by extreme (abnormal) observations in the series. For instance, the
monthly incomes of three boys are 37 birr, 53 birr and 48 birr and that of their father is 1026
birr. The average income become for one of these four people becomes 219 birr which is not
at all a representative figure.
- It can be a number which does not exist in the series.
- It sometime gives such results which appear almost absurd. For example it is likely that we
can get an average of „3.6 children‟ per family.
- It gives greater importance to bigger items of a series and lesser importance to smaller items.
That means it is an upward bias measure.
- It can‟t be calculated for open-ended classes.

3.3.2 The Median


The median of a set of items (numbers) arranged in order of magnitude (i.e. in an array form) is the
middle value or the arithmetic mean of the two middle values. We shall denote the median of
x1 , x2 , ..., xn by ~
x . For ungrouped data the median is obtained by

 x n 1 if the number of items, n, is odd


~  2
x  1
 ( x n  x n  2 ) if the number of items, n, is even
 2 2 2

20
For grouped data the median, obtained by interpolation method, is given by

Where Lmed  lower class boundary of the median class


Fp  Sum of frequencies of all class lower than the median class (in other words it is the
cumulative
frequency preceding the median class)
f med  Frequency of the median class and W  is class width
The median class is the class with the smallest cumulative frequency greater than or equal to n . It
2
can be located by counting n of the frequencies beginning from the lowest class.
2
Examples1: The birth weights in pounds of five babies born in a hospital on a certain day are 9.2, 6.4,
10.5, 8.1 and 7.8. Find the median weight of these five babies.
Solution: the median is 8.1.

Examples 2: The following table gives the distribution of the weekly wages of employees of a small
firm.

Wages in birr No. of employees


126 and below 3
127 – 135 5
136 – 144 9
145 – 153 12
154 – 162 5
163 – 171 4
172 and above 2
a) Find the median weekly wage.
b) Why is the median a more suitable measure of central tendency than the mean in
this case?
Merits of median
- Median is a positional average and hence it is not influenced by extreme values.
- Arithmetic mean is rigidly defined a mathematical formula so that its value is always definite.
- Median can be calculated even in case of open-ended intervals.
- It gives best result in a study of those phenomena‟s which are incapable of direct quantitative
measurement. Example: intelligence
Demerits of median
- It is not capable of further algebraic treatment.
- It is not a good representative of the data if the number of items (data) is small.
- The arrangement of items in order of magnitude is sometimes very tedious process if the number
of items is very large.
3.3.3 The Mode

21
The mode or the modal value is the most frequently occurring score/observation in a series and
denoted by x̂ . Note that the mode may not exist in the series or, even if it does exist, it may not be
unique.

For grouped data, the mode is found by the following formula:


 1 
xˆ  Lmod   W
 1   2 
Where Lmod  lower class boundary of the modal class
 1  The difference between the frequency of the modal class and the next lower class
 2  The difference between the frequency of the modal class and the next higher class
W  is the class width
The modal class is the class with the highest frequency in the distribution.
Examples 1: The marks obtained by ten students in a semester exam in statistics are: 70, 65, 68, 70,
75, 73, 80, 70, 83 and 86. Find the mode of the students‟ marks.
Example 2: Find the mode for the frequency distribution of the birth weight (in kilogram) of 30
children given below.
Weight 2.9-2.3 2.3-2.7 2.7-3.1 3.1-3.5 3.5-3.9 3.9-4.3
No. of children 5 5 9 4 4 3
Merits of mode
- Mode is not affected by extreme values.
- Mode can be calculated even in the case of open-end intervals. And it is not necessary to know all
observations.
Demerits of mode
- Mode may not exist in the series and if it exists it may not be a unique value.
- It does not fulfill most of the requirements of a good measure of central tendency
- It may be unrepresentative in many cases.

3.3.4 Quantiles

Quantiles are values which divides the data set arranged in order of magnitude in to certain equal
parts. They are averages of position (non-central tendency). Some of these values of quantiles are
quartiles, deciles and percentiles.
I. Quartiles: are values which divide the data set in to four equal parts, denoted by Q1 ,Q2 and Q3 . The
first quartile is also called the lower quartile and the third quartile is the upper quartile. The second
quartile is the median.
 For Ungrouped data:
Let Q j be the j th quartile value for j  1, 2, 3 . Then
th
j 
Q j   n  1 item; j  1, 2, 3.
4 
 For grouped data
We can apply the following formula:
 j  n 4  FQ j 
Q j  LQ j   W ; j  1, 2, 3.
 fQj 
 
Where Q j  the j th quartile which is to be worked out

22
LQ j  Lower class boundary of the j th quartile class
FQ j  Sum of frequencies of all classes lower than the j th quartile class
f Q j  Frequency of the j th quartile class and W  Class width
The j th quartile class is the class with the smallest cumulative frequency greater than or equal
to j  n 4 . It can be located by counting j  n 4 of the frequencies beginning from the lowest class.
II. Deciles: are values dividing the data in to ten equal parts, denoted by D1 , D2 , ..., D9 . The fifth decile
is the median.
 For Ungrouped data
Let D j be the j th percentile value for j  1, 2, ... , 9 . Then
th
 j 
D j   n  1 item; j  1, 2, ... , 9
 10 
 For grouped data
We can apply the following formula:
 j  n10  FD j 
D j  LD j   W ; j  1, 2, ... , 9
 f Dj 
 
Define the symbols similar way as we did in the case of quartiles.
The j th decile class is the class with the smallest cumulative frequency greater than or equal
to j  n 10 . It can be located by counting j  n 10 of the frequencies beginning from the lowest class.
III. Percentiles: are values which divide the data in to one hundred equal parts, denoted by P1 , P2 , ... P99 .
The fiftieth percentile is the median.
 For ungrouped data
Let Pj be the percentile value for j  1, 2, 3, ... , 99 . Then
th
 j
Pj   n  1 item; j  1, 2, 3, ... , 99
 100 
 For grouped data
We can use the following formula:
 j  n100  FPj 
Pj  LPj   W ; j  1, 2, 3, ... , 99
 f Pj 
 
Define the symbols similar way as we did in the case of quartiles.
The j th percentile class is the class with the smallest cumulative frequency greater than or equal
to j  n100 . It can be located by counting j  n100 of the frequencies beginning from the lowest class.

Interpretations
1. Q j is the value below which ( j  25) percent of the observations in the series are found
(where j  1, 2, 3 ). For instance Q3 means the value below which 75 percent of observations in the
given series are found.

23
2. D j Is the value below which ( j 10) percent of the observations in the series are found
(where j  1, 2, ... , 9 ). For instance D4 is the value below which 40 percent of the values are found
in the series.
3. Pj is the value below which j percent of the total observations are found
(where j  1, 2, 3, ... , 99 ). For example 73 percent of the observations in a given series are
below P73 .
Exercise: The following table presents the male population of a certain region in Ethiopia.
Find a) all quartiles
b) The 9 th and 5 th decile and
c) 65th and 75th percentiles

Age groups (in years) No. of male population


0–5 2580
5 – 10 3737
10 – 15 4620
15 – 20 5200
20 – 25 7250
25 – 30 620
30 – 35 297
35 - 40 355

3.4 When to Use the Different Averages


Mean is appropriate if the data is quantitative and there is no extreme (abnormal) observation(s). For
the data having extreme value(s) (or for qualitative data having ordinal measurement scale) it is better
to use median as measure of central tendency. It is largely used measure of central tendency in
psychology, education and other social sciences. On the other hand, mode is best measure of central
tendency for qualitative data with nominal scale of measurement. It can also be used as a quick
measure of central tendency for both qualitative and quantitative data.

24
Chapter Four
Measures of Dispersion (Variation)
4.1 Objectives of Measuring Variation
Variation (dispersion) is the scatter or spread of observations /values/ in a distribution
The average or central value is of little use unless the degree of variation, which occurs about it,
is given. If the scatter about the measure of central tendency is very large, the average is not a
typical value. Therefore it is necessary to develop a quantitative measure of the dispersion (or
variation) of the values about the average.

Measures of variation are statistical measures, which provide ways of measuring the extent to
which the data are dispersed or spread out.

Measures of variation are needed for the following basic objectives.


 To judge the reliability of a measure of central tendency
 To compare two or more sets of data with regard to their variability
 To control variability itself like in quality control, body temperature, etc
 To make further statistical analysis or to facilitate the use of other statistical measures.

Properties of a good measure of dispersion


A good measure of dispersion should:
- be rigidly defined by a mathematical formula,
- be simple to understand and easy to calculate,
- be unique,
- be fundamental of all observations in the series,
- not be affected by some extreme values existing in the series,
- have sampling stability property, and
- be capable of further algebraic treatment as well as further statistical analysis.

4.2 Absolute and Relative Measures of Dispersion


Measures of dispersion /variation may be either absolute or relative. Absolute measures of
dispersion are expressed in the same unit of measurement in which the original data are given.
These values may be used to compare the variation in two distributions provided that the
variables are in the same units and of the same average size.

In case the two sets of data are expressed in different units, however, such as quintals of sugar
versus tones of sugarcane or if the average sizes are very different such as manager‟s salary
versus worker‟s salary, the absolute measures of dispersion are not comparable. In such cases
measures of relative dispersion should be used.

A measure of relative dispersion is the ratio of a measure of absolute dispersion to an appropriate


measure of central tendency. It is sometimes called coefficient of dispersion because the word
“coefficient” represents a pure number (that is independent of any unit of measurement). Note
also that the value of a relative dispersion is unit less quantity.

25
4.3 Types of Measures of Dispersion
4.3.1 The Range and Relative Range
Range (R) is defined as the difference between the largest and the smallest observation in a given
set of data. That is, R  xmax  xmin where xmax and xmin are the largest and the smallest
observations in the series respectively.

In case grouped data, range is found by taking the difference between the class mark of the last
class and that of the first class. That is, R  M last  M first where M last and M first are the class
marks of the last class and that of the first class respectively.

A relative range (RR), also known as coefficient of range, is given by


x max  x min R
RR   ........ for ungroupeddata
x max  x min x max  x min
M last  M first R
RR   ......... for grouped data
M last  M first M last  M first

Properties of Range and Relative Range


- Range and relative range are easy to calculate and simple to understand.
- Both cannot be computed for grouped data with open ended classes.
- They do not tell us anything about the distribution of values in the series.

Example 1: Find the range and relative range for the monthly salary of ten workers in a certain
paint factory given below.

462 480 534 624 498 552 606 588 516 570

Solution:
x max  624 birr x min  462 birr
R  x max  x min  624 birr  462 birr  162 birr
x max  x min 624 birr  462 birr 162 birr
RR     0.149
x max  x min 624 birr  462 birr 1086birr

Example 2: Find the values of the range and relative range for the following frequency
distribution: which shows the distribution of the maximum loads supported by a certain number
of cables.
Maximum load Number
(in kilo-Newton) of cables
93 – 97 2
98 – 102 5
103 – 107 12
108 – 112 17
113 – 117 14
118 – 122 6
123 – 127 3
128 – 132 1

26
Solution:
M first  95 kN M last  130 kN
R  M last  M first  130 kN  95 kN  35 kN
M last  M first 130 kN  95 kN 35 kN
RR     0.156
M last  M first 130 kN  95 kN 225 kN
4.3.2 The Mean Deviation and Coefficient of Mean Deviation
The mean deviation (MD) measures the average deviation of a set of observations about their
central value, generally the mean or the median, ignoring the plus/minus sign of the deviations.

The mean deviation of a sample of n observations x1 , x2 , ... , xn is given as

MD 
x i A
Where A is a central measure (the mean or the median)
n
In case of grouped data, the formula for MD becomes

MD 
f i xi  A
Where xi is the class mark of the i th class, f i is the frequency of
n
the i th
class and n  f i .

 The mean deviation about the arithmetic mean is, therefore, given by

MD 
x i x
.... for ungrouped data
n

MD 
f i xi  x
.... for grouped frequency distribution; where xi is the class mark of
n
the i th class, f i is the frequency of the i th class and n  f i

 The mean deviation about the median is also given by

MD 
x i ~
x
.... for ungrouped data
n

MD 
 f i xi  ~x .... for grouped frequency distribution; where x is the class mark of
i
n
the i th class, f i is the frequency of the i th class and n   f i .

The coefficient of mean deviation (CMD) is the ratio of the mean deviation of the observations to
their appropriate measure of central tendency: the arithmetic mean or the median.
MD
In general, CMD  where A is a measure of central tendency: the arithmetic mean or the
A
median.

27
MD
That is, CMD about the arithmetic mean is given by CMD  where MD is the mean
x
deviation calculated about the arithmetic mean. On the other hand CMD about the median is
MD
given by CMD  ~ in which case MD is calculated about the median of the observations.
x

Properties of Mean Deviation and coefficient of mean deviation


- It is easy to understand and compute
- It is based on all observations
- It is not affected very much by the values of extreme value(s).
- It is not capable of further mathematical treatments and it is not a very accurate measure
of dispersion.

4.3.3 The Variance, the Standard Deviation and Coefficient of Variation


The Variance
Variance is the arithmetic mean of the square of the deviation of observations from their
arithmetic mean.
 Population Variance (  2 )
For ungrouped data

 x  
2
1  xi 
2

   ...    xi   Where  is the population arithmetic
2 i 2

N N N 
 
mean and N is the total number of observations in the population.
For grouped data

 f x 1   
2
 f i xi 2  Where is the population
   ...   f i xi  N  
2 i i 2

N N
 
arithmetic mean, xi is the class mark of the i class, f i is the frequency of the i th class
th

and N  f i .

 Sample Variance ( S 2 )
For ungrouped data

 x  x
2
1   xi 2  Where is the sample arithmetic
  ...   xi  n 
2 i 2
S x
n 1 n 1
 
mean and n is the total number of observations in the sample.
For grouped data

 f x 1   x
2
 f i xi  2

 Where x is
  ...   f i xi 
2 i i 2
S the sample
n 1 n 1 n 
 
arithmetic mean, xi is the class mark of the i th class, f i is the frequency of the i th class
and n  f i .

The Standard Deviation


Standard deviation is the positive square root of the variance.

28
 Population Standard Deviation (  )
   2 where  2 is the population variance.

 Sample Standard Deviation ( S )


S  S 2 where S 2 is the sample standard deviation.

Coefficient of Variation
The standard deviation is an absolute measure of dispersion. The corresponding relative measure
is known as the coefficient of variation (CV).

Coefficient of variation is used in such problems where we want to compare the variability of two
or more than two different series. Coefficient of variation is the ratio of the standard deviation to
the arithmetic mean, usually expressed in percent.
S
CV   100 . Where S is the standard deviation of the observations.
x
A distribution having less coefficient of variation is said to be less variable or more consistent or
more uniform or more homogeneous.

Example: Last semester, the students of Biology and Chemistry Departments took Stat 273
course. At the end of the semester, the following information was recorded.

Department Biology Chemistry


Mean score 79 64
Standard deviation 23 11

Compare the relative dispersions of the two departments‟ scores using the appropriate way.

Solution:
Biology Department Chemistry Department
S S
CV   100 CV   100
x x
23 11
  100  29.11%   100  17.19%
79 64

Interpretation: Since the CV of Biology Department students is greater than that of Chemistry
Department students, we can say that there is more dispersion relative to the mean in the
distribution of Biology students‟ scores compared with that of Chemistry students.
Properties of the Variance and the Standard Deviation
Variance
– It removes most of the demerits or drawbacks of the measures of dispersion discussed so far.
– Its unit is the square of the unit of measurement of values. For example, if the variable is
measured in kg, the unit of variance is kg2.
– It is calculated based on all the observations/data in the series.
– It gives more weight to extreme values and less to those which are near to the mean.

Standard Deviation
– It is considered to be the best measure of dispersion.

29
– [Demerits] If the values of two series have different unit of measurement, then we can not
compare their variability just by comparing the values of their respective standard deviations.
– It is calculated based on all the observations/data in the series. Standard deviation is capable of
further algebraic treatment.
– Standard deviation is as such neither easy to calculate nor to understand.
– Similar to the variance, standard deviation gives more weight to extreme values and less to
those which are near to the mean.

The Standard Scores (Z-Scores)


A standard score is a measure that describes the relative position of a single score in the entire
distribution of scores in terms of the mean and standard deviation. It also gives us the number of
standard deviations a particular observation lie above or below the mean.
x
Population standard score: Z  where x is the value of the observation,  and  are the

mean and standard deviation of the population respectively.
xx
Sample standard score: Z  where x is the value of the observation, x and S are the mean
S
and standard deviation of the sample respectively.

Interpretation:

Example: Two sections were given an exam in a course. The average score was 72 with standard
deviation of 6 for section 1 and 85 with standard deviation of 5 for section 2. Student A from
section 1 scored 84 and student B from section 2 scored 90. Who performed better relative to
his/her group?
Solution: Section 1: x = 72, S = 6 and score of student A from Section 1; x A = 84
Section 2: x = 85, S = 5 and score of student B from Section 2; x B = 90

x A  x1 84  72
Z-score of student A: Z    2.00
S1 6
x  x2 90  85
Z-score of student B: Z  B   1.00
S2 5
From these two standard scores, we can conclude that student A has performed better relative to
his/her section students because his/her score is two standard deviations above the mean score of
selection 1 while the score of student B is only one standard deviation above the mean score of
section 2 students.

30
Unit 5

Elementary Probability Definition of basic terms of probability

Random experiment: - is a process of measurement or observation which is repeated at


any time and who‟s out come can‟t be predicted with certainty. E.g. tossing a coin
Out come: - a particular result of an experiment (result of single trial of an experiment)
Sample space: - is the set of all possible out comes of a random experiment. Each
possible out come is called sample point.
Event: - is a subset of a sample space (one or more outcomes of an experiment)
Example1: if we toss a coin the sample space (S) of this experiment
S = {head, tail} where head and tail are two faces of a coin. If we are interested the
outcome of head will turn up then the event E= {head}
Example 2: find the sample space of tossing a coin twice.
S= {HH, HT, TH, TT}
Elementary or simple event: - an event having only one sample point.
Mutually exclusive event: - two events E1 and E2 are said to be mutually exclusive if
there is no sample point which is common to E1 and E2.
i.e. E1  E2 = 
Independent event: two events E1 and E2 are said to be independent if the occurrence of
E1 has no bearing on occurrence of E2. That means knowledge of E1 has occurred given
no information about the occurrence of E2.
Collectively exclusive events: - two events are said to be collectively exclusive if at least
one of them must occur. Hence they include every possible outcome.
Equally likely outcomes: - if each outcome in a sample space has the same chance to be
occurred.
Example In throwing a fair die all possible outcomes are equally likely. That means the
elements of the sample space have the chance to be occurred.
Definition of probability
Probability:-is a chance (likely hood) of occurrence of an event. It is expressed by a
numerical value between 0 and 1 inclusively. Probability is a building block of inferential
statistics.

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Deterministic Stochastic model (probabilistic)
-> Certain -> uncertain
->mathematical ->non-mathematical (econometric model)
Generally probability can be divided into two
i) Subjective probability: - probability of an event in a certain experiment to be
occurred based on individual‟s belief or attitude.
ii) Objective probability: - the probability of an event in a certain experiment based
on experimental evidence.
Counting techniques:
In order to determine the number of out comes one can use several rules of counting
1. Multiplication rule: - in a sequence of n events in which the first event has k1
possibilities… the nth event has kn possibilities, then the total possibilities of the sequence
will be k1.k2….kn.

Example: - in a personnel department a larger corporation wishes to issue each employee


an ID cards with two letters followed by two digit numbers. How many possible ID cards
can be imposed?
Solution
K1 K2 K3 K4
26 26 10 10
Thus the total number of ID cards issued could be:
26*26*10*10=67600(with repetition)
26*25*10*9=58500 (with repetition)

2. Permutation: is an arrangement of n objects in a specific order. In this case order is


crucial.
a) The number of permutations of n objects taken all together is n!
I.e. n! / (n-n)!
b) The arrangement of n distinct objects in a specific order using r objects at a time is
given by

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nPr =n!/(n-r)!= n(n-1)(n-2)…..(n-r-1)
c) The number of permutation of n objects in which k1 are alike, k2 are alike, kn are alike
is
n! / k1!k2!....kn!
Example: a photographer wants to arrange 3 persons in a raw for photograph. How many
different types of photographs are possible?
Solution:
Assume 3 persons Aster (A), lemma (L), Yared (Y) and n=3
Since n! =3! = 3*2! = 6, there are 6 possible arrangement ALY, AYL, LAY, LYA, YLA
and YAL
Example2: fifteen athletes including Haile were entered to the race.
a) In how many different ways could prizes for the first, the second and the third place be
awarded?
b) How many of the above triplets just counted have if Haile is in the first position?
Solution:
15 objects taken 3 at a time 15P3=15! / (15-3)! = 2730
There are 14P2= 14! / (14-2) = 182
3. Combination: - counting technique in which the order of the objects is immaterial.
Selection of r objects from a collection of n objects where r<= n without regarding order.

The combination of n objects r objects taken at a time is given by


nCr = n!/(n-r)!r!
Example: In a club containing 7 members a committee of 3 people is to be formed. In
how many ways can the committee be formed?
Solution: 7C3 = 7! / (7-3)! 3! = 35
Basic approaches to probability
Classical approach: - Uses sample space to determine the numerical probability that an
event will happen. If there are n equally likely outcomes of an experiment, and out the n
outcomes event E occur only k times the probability of the event E is denoted by P (E) is
defined as
P (E) = n (E)/ n(S) =k/n

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Deficiencies of classical approach
- If total number of outcomes is infinite or if it is not possible to enumerate all
elements of the sample space.
- If each out come is not equally likely
Example: in the experiment of tossing a coin and a die together, find the probability of
an event E consisting head and even numbers.
Solution: S={H1,H2,H3,H4,H5,H6,T1,T2,T3,T4,T5,T6} then
E= {H2, H4, H6} thus, P (E) =n (E)/n(S) =3/12= ¼
Let S be sample space of an experiment, P is called probability function if it satisfies the
following condition
0 < P (A) ≤ 1, for each event A, P (A) is called probability of A
Where P (S) = 1
If A and B are mutually exclusive events, then P (A  B) = P (A) + P (B)

Similarly P (  Ai ) =P ( A1 ) + P ( A2 ) +…+ P ( An )
i 1


=  P( A )
i
i 1

Relative frequency Approach (empirical approach):- suppose we repeat a certain


experiment n times and let A be an event of the experiment and let k be the number of
times that event A occurs. Then the ratio k/n is called the relative frequency of event A.
number of times event A has occurred k
P( A)  
total number of observations n
In other words given a frequency distribution , the probability of an event (E)
frquency of a class
being in a given class is P(E)=
total frequency in the distribution

Example: the national center for health statistics reported that of every 539 deaths in
recent years, 24 resulted that from automobile accident, 182 from cancer, and 353 from
other disease. What is the probability that particular death is due to an automobile
accident?
Solution P (automobile) = death due to automobile /total death =24/539
Rules of probability

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Rule l: let A be an event and A‟ be the compliment of A with respect to a given sample
space of an experiment, then p(A‟)=1-P(A)
Proof: let S be a sample space S=A  A‟ and, A and A‟ are mutually exclusive
A  A‟ = 
P(S) = P (A  A‟) = P (A‟) + P (A) and P(S) = 1
1= P (A‟) + P (A) => P (A‟) = 1-P (A)
Rule 2: let A and B are events of a sample space S, then
P (A‟  B) = P (B)-P (A  B)
Proof: B =S  B = (A  A‟)  B = (A  B)  (A‟  B)
Case 1: if A  B ≠  , then P (B) =P (A  B) +P (A‟  B)
P (A‟  B) = P (B) – P (A  B)
Case 2: if A  B =  , then P (B) =P (A  B) + P (A‟  B) since P (A  B) = P (  ) =0
=> P (B) = P (A‟  B)
Rule 3: Suppose A and B are two events of a sample space, then
P (A  B) = P (A) + P (B) - P (A  B)
Example: A fair die is thrown twice. Calculate the probability that the sum of spots on
the face of the die that turn up is divisible by 2 or 3.
Solution:
S= {(1,1),(1,2),(1,3),(1,4),(1,5),(1,6),(2,1),(2,2),(2,3),(2,4),(2,5),(2,6),(3,1),
(3,2),(3,3),(3,4),(3,5),(3,6),(4,1),(4,2),(4,3),(4,4),(4,5),(4,6),(5,1),(5,2),(5,3),(5,4),(5,4),(5,
5),(5,6),(6,1),(6,2),(6,3),(6,4),(6,5),(6,6)}
This sample space has 6*6 =36 elements let E1 be the event that the sum of the spots on
the die is divisible by 2 and E2 be the event that the sum of the spots on the die is
divisible by two, then
P (E1 or E2) = P (E1  E2)
= P (E1) +P (E2) – P (E1  E2)
= 18/36 + 12/36 -6/36 = 24/36 = 2/3
Conditional probability: the conditional probability of an event A in relation to B is
defined as the probability that event E occurs given that event A is has been already
occurred.

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P (A/B) = P (A  B)/ P (B) where P (B) > 0
Remark: (i) P (A  B) & P (B) are computed w. r. t. original sample
(ii) P (S/B) = P(S  B)/P (B) = P (B)/P (B) = 1
P (B/S) = P (B) because P (B/S) = P (B  S)/P(S) = P (B)/1 =P (B) (iv) if A and B are
independent event, then P(A/B) =P(A) and P(B/A) =P(B) two events are independent if
the occurrence of B doesn‟t affect the occurrence of A. i.e. P(A/B) =P(A  B)/P(B)
P (A  B) = P (A/B) *P (B) but P (A/B) = P (A)
Hence P (A  B) = P (A)* P (B)
Example: Suppose that an office has 100 calculating machines. Some of them use
electric power (E) while others are manual (M) and some machines are well known (N)
while others are used (U). The table below gives numbers of machines in each category.
A person enter the office picks a machine at random and discovers that it is new. What is
the probability that it is used with electric power?
E M Total
N 40 30 70
U 20 10 30
Total 60 40 100
Solution: P (E/N) =P (E  N) /P (N) = 40/70 =7/4
Baye’s theorem
Theorem 1.1: let {E1,E2, .., En} be partitions of the sample space S, and suppose E1,E2,
.., En has non-zero probability that is P(Ei) ≠ 0 for I = 1,2, … ,n and let E be any event,
then P(E) =P(E1)* P(E/E1) + P(E2)*P(E/E2) +….+P(En)*P(E/En)
n
=  P ( E )P ( E )
i 1 E i

Theorem 1.2: (Baye’s theorem)


Let {E1,E2, .., En} be partitions of the sample space S, and suppose E1,E2, .., En has
non-zero probability that is P(Ei) ≠ 0 for I = 1,2, … ,n and let E be any event for P(E) >
0, then for each integer k, 1 ≤ K ≤ n, we have
P( E k ) P( E
E)
p( E k )= k
E n

 P( E ) P( E E )
i 1
i i

36
Example: suppose that three machines are A1, A2 and A3 produce 60%, 30%, and 20%
respectively of the total production of machines are 2%, 4%, and 6% respectively.
If an item is selected at random, then find the probability that the item is defective.
Assuming that an item selected at random is found to be defective. Find the probability
the item was produced on machine A1.
Solution :let B be an event of selecting a defective item at random and let E1, E2, E3 be
an items produced on machines A1, A2, A3 respectively then
P (B/E1) = 2%=0.02, P (B/E2) = 4% = 0.04 and P (B/E3) = 6% = 0.06
P (B) = P (B  [E1  E2  E3])
= P ([B  E1]  [B  E2]  [B  E3])
= P (B  E1) + P (B  E2) +P (B  E3)
= P (E1)*P (B/E1) + P (E2)*P (B/E2) +P (E3)*P (B/E3)
= 0.6*0.02 + 0.3*0.04 + 0.1*.006
= 0.03
p ( E1  B ) P( E1) P( BE ) = 0.6 * 0.02 =0.4
We use Baye‟s formula P (E1/B) = = n
1
P( B)
 P( E ) P( B E )
0.03
i i
i 1

37

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