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Journal of Transport Geography 19 (2011) 1120–1129

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Journal of Transport Geography


journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/jtrangeo

The safety impact of land use changes resulting from bypass road constructions
Wafa Elias ⇑, Yoram Shiftan 1
Transportation Research Institute, Technion-Israel Institute of Technology, Technion City, Haifa 32000, Israel

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Keywords: This paper analyzes the effect of bypass construction on road safety, specifically crash rates on bypass
Bypass roads segments and in bypassed communities. It further investigates the effect of bypass construction on those
Road crash communities’ economic development through changes in the number and spatial distribution of busi-
Economic development nesses and residential development, and examines whether these changes affect the road-safety level.
Residential development
Finally, it evaluates the effect on road safety of various traffic arrangements implemented in such com-
munities. Drawing on an extensive data collection, the study focuses on Arab cities in the Galilee region of
Israel, using cross-sectional and longitudinal analysis.
The results show that bypass construction does not necessarily reduce overall crash frequencies or
crash rates. It merely shifts road crashes from the highways (the bypass roads) to inner roads (bypassed)
and from there to local traffic, with no significant reduction. The findings indicate a large variance in the
effects of bypass constructions on safety.
Ó 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction Several studies confirm the negative correlation between crash


severity and traffic density (e.g., Elvic and Vaa, 2004).
Three major factors contribute to road crashes: the system (e.g., Conflicting hypotheses can be advanced regarding infrastructure
the roadway and its spatial context), human elements (drivers, investment. Highway bypass construction is commonly assumed to
pedestrians and other system users), and the vehicle. The construc- have a negative impact on a local community’s economy by reduc-
tion of bypass roads not only changes the roadway system, but it ing traffic for businesses, even though at the same time it may re-
also alters land use, human activity, and travel behavior. Bypass duce crashes. In contrast, new bypass construction improves
construction, therefore, can have a complex relationship with road access to areas, enabling the development of new areas for residen-
crashes. It diverts traffic from towns or city centers to improve the tial and commercial use and thereby increasing economic activity.
flow, reduce travel times, and lessen road crashes (Sabol, 1996). These changes in land use may shift travel patterns resulting in
There remains, however, the question of whether this construction changes in traffic volumes and therefore also in driver behavior.
leads to a decline in the total number of crashes and in their sever- Kim et al. (2006) and Shefer (1994) found a positive relationship be-
ity. Minimizing the conflict between regional through-traffic and tween economic activity and road-crash patterns, manifested in
local motorized and pedestrian traffic should improve safety; how- car-ownership rate, number of trips (according to purpose, espe-
ever, the decrease in density elevates travel speed and, hence, may cially non-work purposes), and total vehicle mileage. Some studies
increase the number and severity of road crashes (Amundsen and point to a connection between land use and safety. Wedagama et al.
Hofset, 2000). (2006) found that pedestrian casualties in the city center zone are
Furthermore, speed is only one of the basic risk factors in traffic associated with an increase in retail and community land-use dur-
(Wegman and Aarts, 2006). The relation of speed to the crash rate ing work hours. Levine et al. (1995) showed that residential popu-
depends on a variety of factors including congestion (Taylor et al., lation density, manufacturing, retail trade, and the services
2000) and road type (SWOV, 2009; Kloeden et al., 2001). Nilsson industry were positively related to the number of road crashes.
(2004) indicated that the crash rate rise with increased speed more Kim and Yamashita (2002) found that vehicle–vehicle crashes were
on urban roads than on rural roads. Aart and Schagen (2006) highest in commercial and industrial areas while vehicle–pedes-
showed that it increases more on minor roads than on major roads trian crashes were highest in visitor lodging, commercial, indus-
and more on roads designed for lower than for higher speeds. trial, and public services areas.
This study investigates whether bypass construction in Israeli-
Arab towns reduces overall crash frequency and severity or merely
⇑ Corresponding author. Tel.: +972 4 8295135; fax: +972 4 9888003.
shifts crashes from the highways (the bypass roads) to the inner
E-mail addresses: Wafae@tx.technion.ac.il (W. Elias), shiftan@tx.technion.ac.il
roads (bypassed), as well as from through-traffic road users to local
(Y. Shiftan).
1
Tel.: +972 4 8292381; fax: +972 4 8225716. community road users, with no significant overall reduction. The

0966-6923/$ - see front matter Ó 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2011.05.012
W. Elias, Y. Shiftan / Journal of Transport Geography 19 (2011) 1120–1129 1121

research investigates the overall effect of bypass construction on the through-road fell dramatically after the bypass construction;
economic activity, land use and activities, and road safety. overall, though, it increased the severity of crashes and the number
Although a few studies cited above show links between land use of passengers involved.
and road crashes, to the best of our knowledge there are no studies
showing the impact of the construction of bypass roads on road
safety through their impact on economic development and land- 3. Methodology
use. The study focuses on the Arab towns in the Galilee, Israel’s
Northern rural region. Regional roads crossing these towns cause This study conducted a descriptive longitudinal analysis of
increasing traffic and safety problems. Some of these towns have changes in safety and land use that have occurred over time, both
already experienced bypass construction; and the trend is previous and subsequent to the construction of the bypasses. It
continuing. specifically looks at changes in the safety level both on the by-
The main objectives of this study are, first, to analyze the impact passed roads and within the bypassed towns. The study is based
of bypass construction on road crashes on the bypass road and on an extensive data collection, including economic and residential
within the bypassed Arab communities. Secondly, the study ana- development and the spatial spread of residential and business
lyzes the effect of bypass construction on economic development establishments. Changes in traffic arrangements during these years
through changes in the number and spatial distribution of busi- were also investigated to control for their effects. In order to ana-
nesses and residential development, examining how these changes lyze the effects of bypass construction on the different variables,
in land use further affect the road-safety level within the bypassed descriptive statistics were employed. In the second stage of the re-
communities. search a negative binomial regression model is estimated to exam-
ine changes in crash trends along the bypass roads and casualty
trends within the bypassed and control towns over time.
2. Literature review Since this study attempts to assess the effect of bypass con-
struction on road crashes over a long time, it is of great importance
The literature that deals with bypass roads, as well as with the to actively control for confounding variables that cannot be iso-
impact of such roads on the development of towns and cities, is lated from the main factors of interest. The importance of the con-
plentiful although it does not provide clear answers as to the direc- trol group is to account for these confounding variables,
tion of these impacts. Some of the research (Leong et al., 2002; representing various changes that occurred over the years both
Collins and Weisbrod, 2000; Baker and Bellotti, 2002; Chase and in the region and in general such as in socioeconomic and demo-
Gustavson, 2004) concludes that bypasses influence residential graphic characteristics, technological developments (e.g., vehicle
communities positively by reducing travel times, improving acces- technology, ABS), regulations (e.g., safety-belt use) and road and
sibility and road safety, reducing noise, generally improving the traffic characteristics.
environment in urban centers, and enabling the development of Elvic (2002), Elvic et al. (2001), and Hauer (1997) all found that
new areas. Other studies, however, determined that the effects simple before-and-after studies do not control for confounding fac-
were negative and in some cases even destructive (Steptoe and tors and, therefore, are likely to overestimate the effects of road-
Thornton, 1986; John and Edward, 1991; Mackie, 1983; Chase safety measures. Fitting a trend line to a time-series does not rep-
and Gustavson, 2004; Comer and Finchum, 2001; Srinivasan and resent controlling for long-term trends. Two main approaches can
Kockelman, 2002; Thompson et al., 2001; Weisbord, 2001), since be taken to control for these variables (Elvic et al., 2001; Hauer,
the construction of a bypass road was liable to bring about a de- 1997): (1) estimating the effects of a confounding factor statisti-
crease in commercial activity within the community owing to cally using Regression to the mean; (2) using a comparison group
the redirection of traffic and hence of the clientele base. to control for all confounding factors whose effects cannot be esti-
Various studies that have investigated the effect of bypass roads mated statistically. Accordingly, both approaches are used in this
on road crashes (Newland and Newby, 1962; Andersson et al., study for controlling the confounding factors that may influence
2001; Kipnis and Balasha, 1976; Eagan et al., 2003; Lorenzo road safety along the bypass segments and within the bypassed
et al., 2007; Forkenbrock et al., 1990) showed that the construction towns.
of such roads caused a decrease in the number of road crashes with The research focuses on the Arab sector in Israel, specifically six
casualties. Elvik and Vaa (2004), based on a meta-analysis of 93 communities in the Galilee region of northern Israel: three by-
case studies from around the world, showed that bypass construc- passed villages were compared to a control group of three villages
tions on average reduced crashes with casualties (both on the old without bypasses. The bypassed towns were Majd Al-Krum, Rami,
road network and on the bypass) by 25%. and Shefaram (Fig. 1); the towns in the control group were Bini,
Elvic et al. (2001) investigated the effect of bypass roads on road Sakhneen, and Nahef. All are located in the same Galilee region
crashes in twenty bypass projects in Norway; the effect was a 19% and have similar population characteristics (Table 1). Furthermore,
decline in the number of road crashes with casualties. Elvic and the location of Bini and Nahef is north of Route 85, which bypasses
Vaa (2004) also found that, on average, the crash rate on the old Rami and Majd Al-Krum. To control for other changes that may af-
main roads increased, possibly because of the increase in speed fect the accident rate on the bypass segments, we selected a con-
that was due to the lower traffic volume. In Israel, Kipnis and trol section from the same road for each bypass; each such
Balasha (1976) investigated the effect of the construction of a road section is away from the bypassed area, but still close enough to
that bypassed the town of Ramla. The bypass road halved the per- represent the same geographical and traffic conditions (the same
centage of road crashes between vehicles with casualties reduced traffic volume, road users, cars, and road condition).
road crashes with casualties involving pedestrians by 30%. The Data regarding residential and commercial development were
researchers explained that the smaller decrease in the percentage taken from town planning permits and reports on illegal construc-
of road crashes involving pedestrians was due to the fact that mov- tion, as well as from each local municipality on trade permits is-
ing the traffic crossing the city’s main road to the bypass road in- sued. Data were also available on trip patterns from travel diaries
creased the attractiveness of the main street, leading to a rise in conducted in these towns.
the number of pedestrians along it. Andersson et al. (2001) Similarly, the change in the safety level of the bypass roads was
showed, on the basis of 19 by-pass construction projects in Den- examined by recording the rate of crashes per million kilometers of
mark, that the number of crashes involving a personal injury on travel and the casualty rate per 1000 population as well as within
1122 W. Elias, Y. Shiftan / Journal of Transport Geography 19 (2011) 1120–1129

Majd al-Krum-1999

Intern Region C

Region –C West Region –C East


Region A
Region B

First Bypass

Second Bypass

Rami-1999

Regional
Road
Internal l road
Region –C Region C

Eastern Junction

Western Junction Bypass road

Shefaram-2007

Fig. 1. Aerial photographs of Majd Al-Krum, Rami, and Shefaram.

the bypassed communities (excluding traffic volume within the was the Israel Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS), as well as a series
towns, which was not available). In both cases the changes were of publications on road crashes with casualties on inter-urban
also studies for the three control cases. The source of these data roads. For the purpose of studying the relationship between the
W. Elias, Y. Shiftan / Journal of Transport Geography 19 (2011) 1120–1129 1123

Table 1
Socio-demographic traits of Majd al-Krum, Rami, and Shefaram (2006 Census).

Variable Unit Majd al-Krum Rami Shefaram Bini Nahef Sakhneen


Population Total population Persons 12,700 7800 33,600 10,000 10,300 25,000
Growth rate from 2005 to 2006 % 2.60 0.60 2.20 2.60 2.90 2.50
Average household size % 5.04 4.13 4.6 5.04 5.50 5.0
Economy Monthly wages (males) NIS 1 = US$ 0.23 4181 5202 4789 4181 4199 4230
Monthly wages (females) NIS 1 = US$ 0.23 2578 3606 2792 2578 2787 2584
Socio-economic level* Scale 2 4 3 2 2 2
Motorization rate Vehicles per 1000 187.1 211.9 246.4 187.1 163.4 229.5
Religion Moslem % 100.0 18.3 58.6 91.8 100 94.4
Christian % 0.0 51.5 27.0 8.2 0 5.6
Druze % 0.0 30.3 14.4 0 0 0
Age group 0–9 % 26.9 19.3 24.1 26.9 29.2 25.9
10–19 % 22.2 21.1 20.5 22.2 26.2 21.8
20–44 % 36.7 35.6 37.2 36.7 35.6 38.1
45 and above % 14.2 24.0 18.2 14.2 9.0 14.2
Education level** 0–9 % 29.7 18.0 38.4 – – –
10–12 % 42.8 32.9 28.5 – – –
13–15 % 14.3 24.7 18.9 – – –
16+ % 13.2 24.4 14.2 – – –
Matriculation exams % 30.1 39.1 42.2 30.1 41.7 37.1
Number of trips (average)** Motorized Trips 2.1 2.5 2.7 – – –
Walking Trips 1.4 1.0 0.9 – – –
*
The Israel Central Bureau of Statistics rates socio-economic levels on a scale from 1 (lowest) to 10 (highest).
**
Based on a study survey.

bypass construction and crashes, the crash sites were identified nance forbidding residential, commercial, and industrial construc-
from police files in two communities, Majd al-Krum and Shefaram. tion along a 75-m-wide strip of these roads) exist in Majd al-Krum
These data were not available for the third community, Rami. and Rami, whereas no such limitations were imposed in Shefaram.
In order to study the changes in land-use patterns as related to The third difference is that the main bypassed roads in Majd al-
the construction of the bypasses the bypassed towns were divided Krum and Shefaram have residential neighborhoods located south
into regions. Thus, Majd al-Krum was divided into five regions, and of them, whereas no corresponding neighborhood has been estab-
Rami into four regions (Fig. 1). Shefaram is a large city divided into lished in Rami.
many areas, so it was deemed appropriate to focus only on the
changes that took place in the two areas relevant to our study: 5. Research results and analysis
south and north of the bypass road (i.e., only those areas influenced
by the construction of the bypass road). 5.1. Road-crashes on the bypass road sections

4. Background 5.1.1. Crash rate on the bypass sections and the control sections
Fig. 3 shows that the road-crash rates per million km of travel
Majd Al-Krum and Rami are small towns, whose populations on the section bypassing Majd al-Krum (Fig. 3a) and Shefaram
are 12,700 and 7800, respectively, while Shefaram is a medium- (Fig. 3c) are on a downward trend while the opposite is true for
sized city of 33,600 residents (Fig. 2). The three communities share the section bypassing Rami (Fig. 3b). A comparison between the
distinct socio-economic characteristics – in particular, low socio- crash rate on the bypasses and the control sections show that along
economic status, large household sizes, and high growth rates. all the study period the crash rate on the three bypass roads are
Rami, however, most resembles an Israeli Jewish municipal entity higher than the control sections. But, during the period 2000–
in terms of education level, household size, and population growth 2005 the crash rate on the section bypassing Shafaram is equal
rate; it has the highest standard of living of any Israeli Arab com- to the control section (Fig. 3c), while in the same period a slight in-
munity (Table 1). crease in the crash rate occurred on the section bypassing Majd al-
In Majd Al-Krum, the bypass section of National Road 85 is a Krum.
1.6 km-long main traffic artery that bisects the municipal bound-
aries of the town; the road was rerouted twice, in 1952 and in 5.1.2. Results of the negative binomial regression model
1996 (Fig. 1). In Rami, the bypass segment of the same National A negative binomial regression model was estimated to test the
Road 85 is 1.4 km long (Fig. 1) and passes through its municipal significance of the changes in the number of road crashes after the
borders; it was rerouted in 1974. Similarly, the bypass section of bypass construction.
Regional Road 79 is 5.1 km long and passes through Shefaram’s Three models were estimated, one for each of the three bypass
municipal boundaries; it was rerouted in 1974 (Fig. 1). In all three sections and their control sections, where the dependent variable
cases, the new bypass roads still cut through the municipal bound- is the annual number of crashes. Table 2 presents the model esti-
aries of these communities, which are divided into northern and mation results. The explanatory variables include the year, treat-
southern sections. ment (dummy), log-volume, and constant.
There are three main differences among the three case studies: The results show that for all three cases the number of crashes
first is the distance of the bypass from the inner road and the town on the bypass sections is significantly higher than on the control
center. In Shefaram, this distance is one km, whereas it is much less sections. This effect is especially high for Majd al-Krum and Rami
in Majd al-Krum and Rami. Second, legal limitations on building with constants of 4.23 and 3.81, respectively, and less for Shefaram
permits along both sides of the bypassed roads (owing to an ordi- with a constant of 0.75. For Majd al-Krum a treatment dummy
1124 W. Elias, Y. Shiftan / Journal of Transport Geography 19 (2011) 1120–1129

Road 85
Nahef
Bini
Ma d al-Krum

Mediterranean Sea

Road 805
Shefaram

Road 79

Fig. 2. Localities included in the study.

showing the change in the number of crashes following the bypass regression-to-mean effect, was estimated according to the follow-
construction was also estimated and was found to be positive but ing formula:
not significant. No treatment dummies were included in the Rami
and Shefaram models as the available data covered only a short Eðm=xÞ ¼ a  EðmÞ þ ð1  aÞ:x ð1Þ
period before the bypass construction. As expected, in all three
cases, the results show a positive relationship between volume where: E(m/x) = adjusted expected number of crashes, x = recorded
and road crashes which means increasing crashes with increasing number of crashes, E(m) = normal number of crashes, and a = esti-
traffic over the years. In Rami a significant positive coefficient mated coefficient that describes the amount of systematic variation
was also estimated for the year variable showing an increase in in the number of crashes explained by a set of normal crashes rates.
the number of crashes over the years on top of the increase that For estimating a in this study, 12 similar road sections (same
is accounted by the increased traffic volume. However, in Shefaram number of lanes, traffic volume, ‘‘Galilee’’ region, and density of
the year coefficient is negative and significant showing a decrease Arab road users) were chosen.
in crashes over the years while controlling for traffic volume. In
Majd al-Krum it was not possible to isolate the effect of traffic vol-
a ¼ 1=ð1 þ VARðmÞ=EðmÞÞ ð2Þ
ume and year because of the high correlation (0.92) between them.
where

^
EðmÞ ^
¼ x; V  ARðmÞ ¼ s2  x; ^
s2 ¼ V ARðxÞ:
5.1.3. Odds ratio Estimation results: recorded number of accidents = 48.12; nor-
In order to estimate the effects of the bypass construction on mal number of crashes = 34.20; estimated VAR(x) = 55.13; and
the road crashes, the standard epidemiological analysis of odds ra- the estimated value of a is 0.62. The estimated long-term expected
tio was applied to obtain confidence intervals. The odds ratio in annual number of crashes in Majd al-Krum is 39.49. The difference
this case is the odds of the crashes occurring in the bypassed group between 48.12 and 39.49 is the estimated regression-to-mean ef-
divided by the odds of the crashes occurring in the control group. fect, which in this case amounts to a 17.90% decline in the number
In our study the odds ratio was calculated only for Majd al-Krum of crashes.
where sufficient data were available before and after the bypass
construction. The odds ratio can be calculated in two methods NAIn =NBIn 271=126
Odds ratio ¼ ¼ ¼ 1:11 ð3Þ
where the first one is based on the estimation results of the nega- NANin =NBNin 99=57
tive binomial regression model. However, as the treatment coeffi-
cient representing the changes in road crashes after the bypass where NAIn is the number of crashes on section bypassing Majd al-
construction in comparison to the control section is not significant, Krum after the treatment. NBIn is the number of crashes on section
we did not use this method here. bypassing Majd al-Krum before the treatment after controlling
The second method to calculate the odds ratio was based on regression to the mean. NANin is the number of crashes on the con-
controlling for regression to the mean and the control group based trol section before the treatment. NBNin is the number of crashes on
on the empirical Bayes method proposed by Hauer (1997). This the control section after the treatment.
method relies on a comparison of the recorded number of crashes Eq. (3) shows that the OR is 1.11 and the confidence interval is
for each road section in the before period with the normal number (0.838–1.839). This means that the bypass construction increased
of crashes for similar road sections. The long-term expected num- the risk of road crashes by 11%, but not statistically significant,
ber of crashes for the Majd al-Krum bypass road, removing the and it is similar to the result based on the model.
W. Elias, Y. Shiftan / Journal of Transport Geography 19 (2011) 1120–1129 1125

arrangements, may be a cause of the increase in road crashes. In


1995, a traffic light was installed at the junction; nevertheless,
no change occurred in the crash rate from 1996–2000. Finally a
bridge tunnel crossing the bypass was built in 2000, and this con-
struction was followed by a significant decline in the crash rate.

5.2. Road crash results within the bypassed communities

5.2.1. Casualty rate by population size


Fig. 4 presents the trend in casualty rate per thousand residents
for each of the six communities. This factor was calculated from
1983 to 2006, (excluding Bini, for which data were lacking for
the years 2003–2006). Fig. 4 shows that Majd al-Krum, Rami,
Shefaram, and Sakhneen experienced an upward trend in the casu-
alty rate, Nahef shows a slight upward trend, while it was stable for
Bini.
Figs. 4a and b show that the casualty rate for Majd al-Krum and
Rami are higher than their control towns: Nahef and Bini during
the period from 1983 to 2006, whereas this rate is not higher for
Shefaram than for its control town, Sakhneen over the same years.

5.2.2. Estimation results for the negative binomial regression of the


crash casualties
A negative binomial regression model was estimated to test the
significance of the changes in the number of crash casualties with-
in the bypassed towns after the bypass construction. Three models
were estimated, one for each of the three bypassed towns and their
control towns, where the dependent variable is the annual number
of crash casualties. Table 3 presents the model estimation results.
The explanatory variables include the year, treatment (dummy),
log-population, and constant.
The results show that for Majd al-Krum and Shrfaram the num-
ber of casualties within both bypassed towns was less than in the
control towns (Nahef and Sakhneen respectively). But this effect is
significant only for Shrfaram. In the case of Rami the number of
casualties is significantly higher than the control town (Bini). For
Majd al-Krum a treatment dummy showing the change in the
number of casualties following the bypass construction was also
estimated and was found to be positive and statistically significant.
No treatment dummies were included in the Rami and Shefaram
Fig. 3. Road-crash rate averages per million kilometers of travel – a comparison models.
between the bypass sections and the control sections. As expected, in all three cases, the results show a positive rela-
tionship between population size and casualties which means
increasing in casualties as the population increases over the years.
In Rami a significant positive coefficient was also estimated for the
5.1.4. Relationship between land-use changes and crash rates on the
year variable showing that casualties increase over the years on
bypass sections
top of the increase accounted by the increase in population. How-
The section bypassing Shefaram is a good example of how
ever, in Shefaram the year coefficient is negative and significant
changes in land use and traffic arrangements may affect the risk
showing a decrease in the casualties over the years while control-
of crashes. Fig. 3 shows that the crash rate significantly increased
ling for population size. In Majd al-Krum it was not possible to iso-
on Shefaram’s bypass after the bypass construction (1976–1980)
late the effect of population size and year because of the high
and then decreased in the period from 1981–1985. There was a re-
correlation (0.86) between them.
newed increase in the crash rate only between 1986 and 1990,
reaching 0.88, which was almost twice the national average. One
possible explanation for this increase was the rise in residential 5.2.3. Odds ratio
building development both in the southern neighborhood and in The Odds ratios are calculated only for Majd al-Krum where suf-
areas lying north of Road 79. From 1990–1995, there were 86 ficient before and after data were available using two methods. The
new buildings in these areas; from 1996–1999, the number first method is based on the estimation results of the negative
reached 165, constituting 9.6% of all new residential buildings in binomial regression model. The treatment coefficient in this model
Shefaram. These new buildings led to an increase in the number represents the changes in casualties after the bypass construction
of local resident trips crossing the bypass through an unsignalized in comparison to the control town Nahef. The odds ratio is then
intersection, thereby causing greater conflict between through and calculated according to equation 4.
local traffic. Another explanation may be the increase in travel
eb1 e0:756
speed, since the new bypass road is a highway with a speed limit OR ¼ ¼ 0 ¼ 2:13; 95%CIð1:350—3:360Þ ð4Þ
eb0 e
of 90 km/h while the bypassed road is a regional road with a speed
limit of 50 km/h. This fact, together with the absence of traffic where b  1 is the treatment’s coefficient with value of 0.756.
1126 W. Elias, Y. Shiftan / Journal of Transport Geography 19 (2011) 1120–1129

Table 2
Estimation results for the negative binomial regression model of road crashes.

Variable Parameter estimate Standard error z Value P > |z|


Model Constant 8.722 .868 10.05 0.000
Majd al-Krum Constant-Majd al-Krum 4.226 .149 28.44 0.000
Treatment 1 = there is a bypass (dummy) .102 .195 0.52 0.602
Lnvolume .494 .087 5.68 0.000
Length (offset)
Statistics summary Final log likelihood = 129.714
LR chi2(4) = 169.76
Prob > chi2 = 0.000, Pseudo R2 = 0.396
N = 46
Model2 Constant 8.004 1.047 7.64 0.000
Rami Constant Rami 3.806 .287 13.24 0.000
Rami_year .048 .021 2.31 0.021
Lnvolume .442 .120 3.69 0.000
Length (offset)
Statistics summary Final log likelihood = 109.276
LR chi2(4) = 143.06
Prob > chi2 = 0.000, pseudo R2 = 0.396
N = 43
Model3 Constant 11.509 1.655 6.96 0.000
Shefaram Constant Shefaram .746 .247 3.02 0.003
Shefaram_year .059 .017 3.19 0.001
Lnvolume .947 .168 5.65 0.000
Length (offset)
Statistics summary Final log likelihood = 125.976
LR chi2(4) = 26.88
Prob > chi2 = 0.000, pseudo R2 = 0.096
N = 43

The ‘‘before’’ period is from 1983–1995, and the ‘‘after’’ period from 1996–2005.

The estimated OR based on Eq. (4) is 2.13 with CI of 1.350– 5.2.4. Relationship between land use changes and casualty rates
3.360. The meaning of these results is that the bypass construction The next question investigated was how, if at all, the extent of
significantly increased the risk of being injured in road crashes by a the changes in land use and traffic arrangement may affect the risk
factor of more than two (in general for significance of the OR the CI of road crashes. Fig. 4 shows that after 1998 there was a decline in
should not include 1). the casualty rate in Shefaram and Sakhneen. One explanation for
The second method to estimate the odds ratio is by controlling the decline in Shefaram is the improvement of the town’s infra-
for regression to the mean. For estimating a, five similar Arab structure, particularly the main inner road (bypassed road)
towns (same demographic and socio-economic characteristics, through the addition of traffic circles, a median, and pavements
‘‘Galilee’’ region, infrastructure characteristics, and economic on both sides of the road.
development at the before period) were chosen. To control for The findings raise the question as to why the casualty rate in
the differences in population size, the estimation was for casualties Sakhneen, which was not bypassed, was so high. The answer
per 1000 residents. The estimation refers to the period from 1985 may have to do with Regional Road 805, which passes through
to 1996. the municipal boundaries of Sakhneen and serves a large number
Estimation results: recorded casualties per 1000 resi- of towns, while at the same time acting as an important access
dents = 0.95; normal casualties per 1000 = 1.05; estimated road for commercial activity within the town—and thereby result-
VAR(x) = 0.0754; and the estimated value of a is 0.519. ing in conflict between through and local traffic.
The estimated long-term expected value of casualties per 1000 To better understand the relationship between the increase in
for Majd al-Krum is 1.003. The difference between 0.95 and 1.003 road crashes within the bypassed communities and the bypass
is the estimated regression-to-mean effect, which in this case construction, the locations of the road crashes were identified.
amounts to a 5.3% increase in the casualty rate per 1000 residents. The findings show that 33% of all crashes in Majd al-Krum occurred
Eq. (3) shows that the OR is 1.95 and the CI is (1.329–2.773) on the section bypassing this town, while this rate was 37% for the
meaning that the bypass construction significantly increased the section bypassing Shefaram. Moreover, 5% of the crashes in Shefa-
risk of being injured in road crashes by 95%, and this result is con- ram took place on the road leading from the southern junction and
sist with the result based on the model. connecting with the bypass (Fig. 1).
Despite the fact that the purpose of the bypass roads was to
NAIn =NBIn 349=110 take the through-traffic out of the bypassed towns and thus reduce
OR ¼ ¼
NANin =NBNin 112=69 vehicle volume on the bypassed roads, businesses, commercial
¼ 1:953; 95% confidence interval ð1:329—2:773Þ ð5Þ enterprises, and residential building actually developed along the
bypassed roads, which hence became commercial axes.
where NAIn is the number of casualties in Majd al-Krum after the Following the construction of the section bypassing Majd al-
treatment. NBIn is the number of crashes in Majd al-Krum before Krum in 1996, there was a significant increase in the development
the treatment after controlling regression to the mean. NANin is of businesses in Region B (along the bypassed road and between
the number of casualties in the control town (Nahef) before the the two bypasses), reaching 27% of the town total in 2006, com-
treatment. NBNin is the number of casualties in the control town pared with only 6% in 1996. In 1988, no garages, plants, and build-
after the treatment. ing material shops existed in Region B, while 64% of these facilities
W. Elias, Y. Shiftan / Journal of Transport Geography 19 (2011) 1120–1129 1127

pass road section, the percentage of residential construction be-


tween the two bypasses and north of the bypassed road
increased, reaching 20% in the period 1982–1986, following ap-
proval of the outline plan designating this area for residential
usage.
These changes in land use impacted travel demand, which
sprang from the need to participate in various new activities and
also resulted in increased conflict between local and through-traf-
fic. This change may have affected the rate of crashes in the by-
passed community, especially given the absence of appropriate
traffic arrangements and infrastructure improvements. Addition-
ally, it turned out that removing passing traffic from the town
and decreasing the traffic volume led to increased travel speed in
urban areas with mixed land use and roads designed for low
speeds; consequently, the level of risk of being involved in a road
crash rose on these roads. This result corresponds with the litera-
ture as mentioned above.

6. Summary

This paper shows that bypass construction does not necessarily


reduce overall crash frequency. It may merely shift crashes from
the highways (bypass roads) to the inner roads (bypassed) and
from the through-traffic to the local traffic, with no significant
overall reduction.
The findings indicate wide variation in the effects of bypass con-
struction on safety. Each bypass road has its own impact on the
rate of crashes on the bypass road segments and within the by-
passed communities. In Majd al-Krum the bypass construction sig-
nificantly increased the risk of casualties in road crashes within the
town but insignificantly increased road crashes on the bypass sec-
tion. In contrast, in Shefaram the number of road crashes on the
bypass sections was on a significant downward trend, whereas
an insignificant downward trend was observed in the town’s casu-
alties. The results for Rami show that both the crashes on the by-
pass section and casualties within the town were in a significant
upward trend.
The differences in the rate of crashes along the bypass road seg-
ments may arise from diversity of urban development schemes,
changes in land use following the construction of the bypass road,
and unsuitable traffic arrangements. For example, the develop-
ment of residential areas in Shefaram, south of the bypass, led to
an increase in the crash rate caused by the conflict between local
Fig. 4. Crash casualty rate per 1000 residents – a comparison between the bypassed
and through-traffic.
towns and the control towns, from 1983 to 2006. Perhaps one of the interesting findings of this study is that each
of the bypass roads in Majd al-Krum and Rami strengthened the
roads they bypassed by altering their status from a main road to
were located in Region C, within the city; by the end of 2006, all of a local road. The new status lifted restrictions on building and
these businesses (100%) were located in region B. development, making these roads central arteries that attracted
Furthermore, a significant change occurred in spatial residential businesses and services. This finding does not correspond with
building development. In 1995, 80% of all of Majd al-Krum’s new the results of various other studies, in which no such restrictions
construction took place in Region C, declining to 37% in 2006. Prior exist along the bypass and which show that development on by-
to 1996, new construction had not been initiated in Region B, pass roads had the adverse effect of reducing commerce along
whereas immediately following construction of the bypass road the central bypassed road.
in 1997, 11% of all construction initiatives were found in this area, In accordance with its hypothesis, the present study showed
jumping to 41% in 2002. These results are supported by detailed that new bypass construction improved access to areas and en-
investigation of travel diaries in the area that show that 21% of abled the development of new areas for residential and commer-
all motorized trips in Majd al-Krum had as their destination the cial use, thereby increasing economic activity, generating new
newly developed areas. travel patterns, increasing the number of trips, and impacting tra-
Similarly, in Rami, until 1970, or prior to the bypass construc- vel purposes and perhaps travel modes as well. These changes
tion, all businesses were located within the city. In 1980, the per- caused a rise in road crashes within the town and a change in their
centage of businesses along the bypass road was 15% and on an pattern. The increase in speed along a bypassed road may also con-
upward trend, which peaked at 30% in 2006. From 1966 to 1971, tribute to the rise in the crash rate, especially, as noted in the safety
the majority of residential development (90%) took place in Region literature, since this rate rises with increasing speed more on urban
C, within the city. From 1972, following the construction of the by- roads than on rural roads.
1128 W. Elias, Y. Shiftan / Journal of Transport Geography 19 (2011) 1120–1129

Table 3
Estimation results for the negative binomial regression of casualties.

Variable Parameter estimate Standard error z Value P > |z|


Model 1 Constant 17.203 3.663 4.70 0.000
Majd al-Krum Constant Majd al-Krum .181 .159 1.14 0.255
Treatment (dummy) .756 .228 3.31 0.001
Lnpopulation 2.155 .409 5.27 0.000
Statistics summary Final log likelihood = 131.348
LR chi2(4) = 69.56
Prob > chi2 = 0.000, pseudo R2 = 0.209
N = 46
Model 2 Constant 32.384 4.213 7.69 0.000
Rami Constant Rami 1.879 .596 3.15 0.002
Rami_year .039 .017 2.25 0.025
Lnpopulation 3.691 4.213 7.69 0.000
Statistics summary Final log likelihood = 167.255
LR chi2(4) = 89.81
Prob > chi2 = 0.000, pseudo R2 = 0.212
N = 46
Model 3 Constant 23.369 6.404 3.65 0.000
Shefaram Constant Shefaram 1.715 .813 2.11 0.035
Shefaram_year .006 .028 0.22 0.823
lnpopulation 2.923 .743 3.94 0.000
Statistics summary Final log likelihood = 158.920
LR chi2(4) = 90.46
Prob > chi2 = 0.000, pseudo R2 = 0.223
N = 42

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