Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

United States National Security
Strategy and Southeast Asia
Carlyle A. Thayer
January 12, 2018

In your commentary, “China’s Influence in the Lower Mekong States,” Thayer

Consultancy Background Brief, September 28, 2017, you wrote: “The Trump
Administration has not made clear what its intentions are regarding Southeast Asia
including relations with ASEAN and continued support for the Lower Mekong
Initiative. If the Trump Administration fails to develop a strategy to support U.S.
interests in mainland Southeast Asia, this will abet China’s drive to create client
states.”
How would you characterize U.S. policy after the release of the U.S. National Security
Strategy?
ANSWER: In the Trump Administration’s States National Security Strategy (NSS)
Southeast Asia is grouped under the Indo-Pacific framework. There is no mention of
mainland Southeast Asia let alone the Lower Mekong states.
The NSS explicitly singles out China’s policies in the region: “China is using economic
inducements and penalties, influence operations, and implied military threats to
persuade other states to heed its political and security agenda. China’s infrastructure
investments and trade strategies reinforce its geopolitical aspirations.” This assertion
seemingly includes Chinese assistance to the Lower Mekong states.
The NSS identifies providing quality infrastructure through the World Bank and other
multilateral institutions to counter China. The NSS states the U.S. will adopt a policy
“encouraging multilateral development banks to invest in high-quality infrastructure
projects that promote economic growth.” Finally, the NSS states that the U.S. will
provide leadership for a collective response that upholds “a regional order respectful
of sovereignty and independence.” Given the context, this is clearly aimed at China.
The wording of the NSS could be read that the U.S. will push back and compete against
China in the region. However, with regard to Southeast Asia, the NSS is focused
entirely on the maritime domain and freedom of navigation, free and reciprocal trade
and defence issues. The NSS explicitly mentions that the U.S. will redouble its
commitment to allies and established partnerships as its first priority in the region.
The NSS commits the United States to improving ties with its allies, Thailand and the
Philippines. The NSS specifically identifies Vietnam along with Indonesia, Malaysia and
Singapore (in that order) as “growing security and economic partners of the United
States.” There is no mention of Cambodia or Laos.
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The U.S. commitment to support infrastructure that promotes economic growth could
have mixed implications for the Lower Mekong states. On the plus side, they could
benefit from investment in high-quality infrastructure that promotes economic
growth. On the other hand, the states of the Lower Mekong could become a cockpit
where U.S.-China rivalry plays out.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “United States National Security Strategy and
Southeast Asia,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, January 12, 2018. All
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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.