Market Gazer Hong Kong - Japan - Germany - UK - North America

last week …  showed a 5% increase annually, while the

20-City Composite grew 4.2% from the
same period in 2009. Overall, the
Personal Income and Personal
National Home Price Index gained 3.6% in
Consumption 2Q10 vs. 2Q09.

On Monday, Bureau of Economic Analysis

(BEA) reported an increase of $30 billion
(0.24%) in personal income in July, up
from June’s decline of $2.7 billion (-
0.02%), while the Personal Consumption
Expenditures (PCE) rose $44 billion or
0.4%. In June, PCE fell 0.07% or $7.3
billion. Disposable Personal Income (DPI)
increase $17.6 billion (+0.16%) in July
after falling $0.2 billion in June (-0.00%).
Monthly data indicated deceleration in
1.4 Personal consumption both 10-City and 20-City Composites. Both
expenditures
1.2
Disposable personal composites were up 1.3% each in May,
1 income
Personal income
but the gains slowed to 1.0% in June. The
0.8

0.6
expiry of government’s Homebuyers’ Tax
0.4
Credit, high level of foreclosures, and
0.2 recent July’s data on existing home sales
0 and new home sales pointed at near-term
March April May June July
weakness.

June seemed to be the turning point so far Pending Home Sales

in PI-DPI-PCE data set, yet lack of strength 120.0

in the labor market would be its only 100.0

80.0
obstacle to maintain July’s rebound. Next 60.0

release of Personal Income and Outlays in 40.0

20.0
August will be on October 1st 2010 at 8:30 0.0

A.M. EDT.

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price

Pending home sales released on Thursday
Indices
however, rose in July by 5.2%, defying
analysts’ expectations of a 1.5% decline
Tuesday saw home price indices growing
following a 2.8% drop in June. Compared
4.4% during the 2Q 2010, reversing 2.8%
to the same month last year, pending
fall in the 1Q. The 10-City Composite
E-mail: market.techspeak@gmail.com
September 5th 2010 Page 1
 Market Gazer Hong Kong - Japan - Germany - UK - North America

home sales were down 20.1%, at a slower

pace than June’s annual drop of 20.3%.
Institute for Supply
Management

Still on Tuesday, Chicago Purchasing

Managers’ Index (PMI) edged lower to
56.7 from 62.3 in July. August’s index was
slightly below the expected reading of Note that data above 50 indicate
57.0. Released before the ISM monthly expansion, while below 50 indicate
report, the Chicago PMI has been contraction.
considered as highly correlated to the ISM
data and thus used as a guidance to the Next month, the ISM for manufacturing
broader measure. will be due on October 1st, while the NMI
will be released on Tuesday, October 5th.
Due on Wednesday, 70
the ISM for 60
50
Consumer Confidence
manufacturing was
40
unexpectedly up to 30 The Conference Board’s Consumer
ISM -

56.3 from 55.5 in July. 20 Manufacturing

ISM - Non- Confidence rose to 53.5 in August against

manufacturing
Analysts were looking 10
for the figure to fall to 0
53.2. As for the ISM for
non-manufacturing,
which was released on Friday, the gauge
fell to 51.5 from 54.3 in July. August’s
reading was worse than the expected
reading of 53.5. How long the path
between the two indexes will continue to
diverge remains to be seen. Based on the
chart, both indexes used to move towards
the same direction and divergences have
not been able to last for long.
the expected fall towards 50.0 from 51.0
in July. The Present Situation Index fell
from 26.4 to 24.9 while the Expectations
Index advanced higher from 67.5 to 72.5.
Employment remained a concern among
consumers as the most recent non-farm
payrolls suggests. Next data will be
announced on September 28th at 10:00
AM ET.
Construction Spending
Construction spending was the final piece
of data coming out on Wednesday. The US
Census Bureau of the Department of
Commerce reported a monthly decline of
1% to the construction spending towards
$805.2 billion in July. The spending was
10.7% lower than July 2009 estimate of

E-mail: market.techspeak@gmail.com
September 5th 2010 Page 2
 Market Gazer Hong Kong - Japan - Germany - UK - North America
$901.2 billion. June’s figure was estimated
at $813.1 billion.
Separating the private and public
constructions, the private construction
spending was at $506.4 billion or down
0.8% from June’s $510.7 billion. Public
construction spending also fell by 1.2%
below June’s $302.4 billion at $298.8
billion.
Next data on construction spending will
be released on October 1st, 10:00 A.M.
EDT.
Non-farm Payrolls (NFP)
The US economy shed 54,000 jobs in
August, a figure better than the expected
105,000 decline, but falling at the sampe
pace as July’s. The reading was the third
time in a row that lied at the negative
area. June saw a turnaround from positive
readings as 175,000 jobs (revised from a
reading of -221,000) were lost. July
remained negative with 54,000 jobs
(revised from -131,000) were gone as
well.
Private employment was up 67,000,
following a 107,000 and 61,000 gains in
September 5th 2010
July and June, respectively. Manufacturing
employment fell 27,000 after it added
33,000 jobs in July. Earlier this week, ADP
employment report showed that the
private sector shed 10,000 jobs in August
after posting a 37,000 gains in July.
Thursday’s jobless claims data however,
continued to improve as claims fell to
472,000 from 478,000 in the week ending
Aug 28th. In August, jobless claims hit
504,000, sparking concerns over the state
of the US labor market.
In addition, August’s average hourly
earnings were 0.3% higher than July’s,
after last month it posted at gains of 0.2%.
Year-on-year, average hourly earnings
advanced 1.7%, slightly slower than in July
(+1.8%).
Other Data
US Factory Orders were up 0.1% month-
on-month in July, reversing a 0.6% drop in
June.
Non-farm productivity fell 1.8% at annual
rate in 2Q’10, according to the US Bureau
of Labor Statistics. Hours were up 3.5%
and output advanced 1.6%. Unit labor
costs for non-farm businesses were up
1.1% in 2Q’10, compensating the decline
in productivity. Here are the charts
obtained from the Bureau of Labor
Statistics (BLS)
E-mail: market.techspeak@gmail.com
Page 3
 Market Gazer Hong Kong - Japan - Germany - UK - North America

On Thursday, jobless claims will be

released for the week ending September
4th. Last Thursday the claims fell to
472,000 and as there are going to be lack
of data, the jobless figure will be
potentially significant. Market consensus
saw the claims to drop further to 470,000.

Trade balance will be released at the

same time, with the market expecting an
improvement from -$49.9 billion in June
to -$47.2 billion.

The last figure to be released next week is

Wholesale Inventories for July. In July,
inventories were up 0.1%. Reuters poll
expects the figure to rise 0.4%.

Overall, next week will most likely start on

a fine footing as sentiment improved last
week thanks to NFP data and also
improving home prices index and pending
home sales data. Watch out for the trade
balance data because another stretch in
deficits may damage the investors’
sentiment.

Disclaimer: This report is provided for information purposes

next week …  only. It is not an offer to sell or to buy any securities. This
report has been prepared based on sources believed to be
reliable, but there is no assurance or guarantee regarding its
US economic calendar will be completeness & and accuracy. The author accepts any
responsibility or liability arising from any use of the report. The
lightweighted next week with the US
author at the moment of writing has interest in any of the
markets will be out on Monday. A day securities mentioned in the report.
after the Labor Day holiday the calendar
will remain blank.

Wedneday will feature only consumer

credit data for July. Expected at -$2.5
billion against -$1.3 billion in June.

E-mail: market.techspeak@gmail.com
September 5th 2010 Page 4