Mathematical and Computer Modelling 54 (2011) 938–943

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Mathematical and Computer Modelling

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/mcm

Simulation of land use spatial pattern of towns and villages based on

CA–Markov model
Lingling Sang a , Chao Zhang a,∗ , Jianyu Yang a , Dehai Zhu a , Wenju Yun b
a
College of Information and Electrical Engineering, China Agricultural University, Beijing, 100083, PR China
b
Land Consolidation and Rehabilitation Center, The Ministry of land Resources, Beijing 100035, PR China

article info abstract

Article history: Firstly, this paper analyzes the basic principles and processes of the spatial pattern changes
Received 11 August 2010 of land use in towns and villages, and the result shows that the land resource demands of
Accepted 4 November 2010 urban development and population growth lead to the spatial pattern changes. Secondly,
in order to grip land use changes better, the paper proposes a method for the simulation of
Keywords: spatial patterns. The simulating method can be divided into two parts: one is a quantitative
Land use change
forecast by using the Markov model, and the other is simulating the spatial pattern changes
Spatial pattern
Markov
by using the CA model. The above two models construct the simulative model of the
Cellular automata spatial pattern of land use in towns and villages. Finally, selecting Fangshan which is a
Fangshan district in Beijing district of Beijing as the experimental area, both the quantity and spatial pattern changing
characteristics are investigated through building a changing dataset of land use by using
spatial analysis methods based on the land use data in 2001, 2006 and 2008; CA–Markov
is used to simulate the spatial pattern of land use in Fangshan for 2015.
© 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction

Rapid advances in geospatial models have made it increasingly possible to design and simulate spatial patterns for land
use change (LUC). An approach commonly used in the simulation model for LUC is based on cellular automata theory and
the GIS framework [1,2]. So far, the establishment of simulation models to monitor and adjust the changes of land use is
a local and global issue of great concern. Mainly simulation methods include two aspects: the first one is the number of
prediction, and the other one is simulating for the spatial patterns of the future. Spatial patterns of land use changes in the
dynamic simulation and analysis relating to the impact of land use changes in many drivers is a very complex process [3].
Models based on the simulation of the spatial pattern of land use change processes are used to understand and explain the
process of regional land use changes and trends in effective ways. However, the current real land use changes and the spatial
distribution of the combination in different scales of land use, spatial and temporal dynamic model of the evolution rule are
rare.
Both cellular automata (CA) and the Markov model have great advantages in the study on land use changes, while both of
them have respective disadvantages. The Markov model for land use changes has been widely used, but with the traditional
Markov model it is difficult to predict the spatial pattern of land use changes. The CA model with powerful spatial computing
can be used to simulate the spatial variation of the system effectively. A CA–Markov model is a robust approach in the
spatial and temporal dynamic modeling of land use changes because geographic information systems (GIS) and remote
sensing (RS) can be efficiently incorporated [4]. The CA–Markov model absorbs the benefits from the time series and spatial

∗ Corresponding author. Tel.: +86 10 62737855; fax: +86 10 62737855.

E-mail address: zhangchaobj@cau.edu.cn (C. Zhang).

0895-7177/$ – see front matter © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.mcm.2010.11.019
 L. Sang et al. / Mathematical and Computer Modelling 54 (2011) 938–943 939

predictions of the Markov and CA theory, and it can be used to carry out the Spatial–Temporal Pattern stimulation. The
CA–Markov model also considers the land use changes’ suitability and the effect of natural, societal and economic factors
about land use changes. Based on previous research and the recent trend towards LUC, this paper analyzed the land use
changes for Fangshan district in Beijing which were based on the quantity of land use change characteristics of the structure
and spatial pattern as the primary research content. The CA–Markov model combined with GIS is selected. The complex
systems of spaces, to play its ability to change and Markov model for long-term forecasts of the advantages of both types of
land use conversion increased prediction accuracy, and it can effectively simulate the spatial pattern of land use changes,
with great science and practice.

2. Study area and data

2.1. Study area

The Fangshan district is located in the southwest of the capital city (39°30′ –39°55′ S, 115°25′ –116°15′ E). The study area
covers an area of approximately 198, 954.4 hm2 . There are a total of 22 district towns and more than 500 villages, and the
population is nearly 90 million.
The township in the district has a representation of urban fringe villages. States of land use in Beijing, as the edges of the
area of Beijing are impacted by urbanization. Forest is a predominant land use accounting for 42.26% of the study area in
2001. According to the ‘‘Beijing Urban Master Plan (2004–2020)’’ which was approved by the State Council, Fangshan has
been identified as the capital of urban development zone, and will become one of the economic centers of Beijing, which is
the main carrier for development of modern manufacturing and modern agriculture, and becomes a center of an important
regional industry and population.

2.2. Data sources and processing

The Fangshan district in Beijing was selected as a study area because of its land use complexity and data availability. The
main data sources are digital land use data (2001, 2006 and 2008), which were sourced from the local land department. Land
use maps in 2001, 2006 and 2008, and land use change maps (2001–2006, 2001–2008) were produced at 1:5000 from Spatial
overlay analysis. The digital map data for the study area were vectored to a manageable spatial resolution and contain seven
classes: arable field, garden, woodland, grassland, construction land, waters and other unused land. The detailed processing
procedure is as follows: (1) Firstly, the vector land use data at the three times were separately converted into raster data
(grid units of 100 m) using the spatial analysis module by ArcGIS9.2. (2) Secondly, through the reclassifying module, all land
use types were aggregated to the primary level. They were then used to derive the land changes/conversion matrix using
a raster calculator. (3) Finally, models and quantitative methods of land use changes were applied to the derived land use
change maps at different periods in an effort to determine the spatiotemporal pattern of land use changes in Fangshan.

3. Research methods

3.1. Markov model

The Markov model is a theory based on the process of the formation of Markov random process systems for the prediction
and optimal control theory method [5]. The Markov model not only explains the quantification of conversion states between
the land use types, but can also reveal the transfer rate among different land use types. It is commonly used in the
prediction of geographical characteristics with no aftereffect event which has now become an important predicting method
in geographic research. Based on the conditional probability formula—Bayes, the prediction of land use changes is calculated
by the following equation [3,5,6]:
S (t + 1) = Pij × S (t ) (1)
where S (t ), S (t + 1) are the system status at the time of t or t + 1; Pij is the transition probability matrix in a state which is
calculated as follows [3]:
 
P11 P12 ··· P1n
P21 P22 ··· P2n 
Pij =  (2)
··· ··· ··· · · ·
Pn1 Pn2 ··· Pnn
 
0 ≤ Pij < 1 and j=1 Pij = 1, (i, j = 1, 2, . . . , n) .
∑N

3.2. CA model

The behavior of CA models is affected by uncertainties arising from the interaction between model elements, structures,
and the quality of data sources used as the model input [7,8]. It focuses mainly on the local interactions of cells with
940 L. Sang et al. / Mathematical and Computer Modelling 54 (2011) 938–943

distinct temporal and spatial coupling features and the powerful computing capability of space, which is especially suitable
for dynamic simulation and display with self-organizing feature systems. The use of geographic cellular automata for
land use change simulations not only takes into account comprehensive consideration soil conditions, climatic conditions,
topography and other natural factors, but also considers a comprehensive policy, economy, technology and other human
factors, and takes into account the historical trends of land use with strong applicability. The CA model can be expressed as
follows [3]:
S (t , t + 1) = f (S (t ), N ) (3)
where S is the set of limited and discrete cellular states, N is the Cellular field, t and t + 1 indicate the different times, and
f is the transformation rule of cellular states in local space.

3.3. CA–Markov model

CA–Markov is a combined Cellular Automata/Markov Chain/Multi-Criteria/Multi-Objective Land Allocation (MOLA) land

cover prediction method that adds an element of spatial contiguity as well as knowledge of the likely spatial distribution of
transitions to Markov chain analysis.
The Markov model focuses on the quantity in predictions for land use changes. For this model, the spatial parameters are
weak and do not know the various types of land use changes in the spatial extents [9]. The CA model has a strong space con-
ception, which is a strong capability of space-time dynamic evolution with complex space systems. The CA–Markov model,
which incorporates the theories of Markov and CA, is about the time series and space for the advantages of forecasting.
It can achieve better simulation for temporal and spatial patterns of land use changes in quantity and space [10,11]. The
CA–Markov module in IDRISI32 integrates the functions of cellular automaton filter and Markov processes, using conver-
sion tables and conditional probability of the conversion map to predict the states of land use changes, and it may be better
to carry out land use change simulations.
The CA–Markov model to simulate land use changes has been put into use in this paper. Firstly, converting the vector data
into raster data; Secondly, based on the CA–Markov module—GIS and image processing module in IDRISI software, spatial
distribution of land use is achieved through the Markov model analysis of land use trends and the use of CA modeling. The
specific process is as follows:
(1) Determining the transition rules.
With Markov chain analysis, future land use changes can be modeled on the basis of the preceding state; that is, a matrix
of observed transition probabilities between maps in 2001 and 2008 can be used to project future changes from current
patterns. Through spatial overlay analysis, the transition probability matrix and the transfer area of the matrix are achieved.
Among them, the transition probability matrix reflects the various land use types into other types of probability; the transfer
area of the matrix reflects the land use conversion to other land use types in the expected area in the next period. Note that
the baseline is the land use map of 2008, which is superimposed with the map in 2001. The calculated transition probability
matrix will serve as the transformation rules to put CA–Markov model simulations into practice.
(2) Determining CA filters.
CA filters can produce a clear sense of the space weighting factor, which can be changed according to the current adjacent
cellular state. The standard 5 × 5 contiguity filter is used as the neighborhood definition in this study. That is, each cellular
center is surrounded by a matrix space which is composed by 5 × 5 cellular to impact the cellular changes significantly.
(3) Determining the starting point and the CA number of iterations.
The study takes the year 2008 as a starting point. The number of CA iterations is selected at 15 in order to simulate the
landscape spatial pattern for the study area in 2015.
Using CA–Markov modules in IDRISI, the land use change simulation technical route is shown in Fig. 2.

4. Results and analysis

4.1. Reclassification of land use types

Based on the land use maps in 2001 and 2008, the types of land use were reclassified with reference to remote sensing
image characteristics. The land use classification adopted in the model consists of seven land use classes. Seven of these,
namely: cultivated field, garden, woodland, grassland, construction land, waters and other non-utilization land are included.
The result of the new reclassification is consistent with national land use classification criteria.
The major tourist attractions and grassland will be added into other non-utilization land in the new classification. The
quantity and spatial pattern of other non-utilization land basically remained stable. After reclassification, special lands were
classified into other land use types according to basic characteristics of land use/land cover, which includes urban, woodland,
water or independent industrial and mining. The result of the reclassifications and their distribution is as shown in Fig. 3.

4.2. Land use structure changes

According to the spatial overlay analysis in GIS, from 2001 to 2008, there are changes in the land use types over these 7
years. The changes in area are as shown in Table 1.
 L. Sang et al. / Mathematical and Computer Modelling 54 (2011) 938–943 941

Fig. 1. Study area and location.

Fig. 2. Flowchart of the technical route of land use simulation.

a b

Fig. 3. The re-classified grid land use maps (a) 2001 land use map (b) 2008 land use map. Note: AL—arable land; GAL—garden; WL—wood land; GL—
grassland; WT—water (lakes, rivers and artificial ponds); CL—construction land; UL—unused land.

The main types of land use in Fangshan are arable land and construction land, which accounted for 58% of the total.
Construction land (including urban construction, rural settlements and other construction land) in Fangshan accounted for
28.9% of the total area from 2001 to 2008; arable land, grassland and unused land have a corresponding reduction, which
ranges up to a 29.1% reduction in arable land, reflecting the quick decline in arable land resources; Unused land decreased
by 18.2%, indicating reserve land resources are inadequate in the study area; gardens and water have smaller changes in the
total area. Land use changes are significant in Fangshan District from 2001 to 2008. Fig. 1 and Table 1 reflect the land use of
space and volume changes from 2001 to 2008. Comparing the land use changes, the most obvious trend is the expansion of
urban and industrial land. However, the expansion of urban and industrial land in space is very different.
Land use dynamic changes can quantitatively describe the speed of land use changes, which plays a unique role in com-
paring the regional differences of land use changes and in predicting the trend of land use changes [12]. Land use dynamic
changes also indicate the level of human disturbance to land use types. The higher the disturbance level, the more inten-
sively land use changes. In this paper, the area changes of land use types in Fangshan during the two periods were further
942 L. Sang et al. / Mathematical and Computer Modelling 54 (2011) 938–943

Table 1
Area of land use changes in Fangshan during 2001–2008.
AL GAL WL GL CL WT UL

2001 (hm2 ) 32 079.82 9110.03 72 661.85 26 046.03 33 187.16 6757.57 19 111.94

2008 (hm2 ) 22 751.87 9575.54 81 758.28 20 013.50 42 787.70 6432.92 15 634.59
Changed area (hm2 ) −9 327.95 465.51 9 096.43 −6 032.53 9 600.54 −324.65 −3 477.35
Change ratio (%) −29.1 5.1 12.5 −23.2 28.9 −4.8 −18.2

Table 2
Transition probabilities matrix of land use types in Fangshan during 2001–2008 (units /%).
Land use types AL GAL WL GL CL WT UL

AL 87.21 4.07 0.28 0 7.96 0.08 0.40

GAL 1.72 90.43 1.61 0.41 5.26 0.28 0.29
WL 0.44 0.51 97.53 0 1.29 0.02 0.21
GL 4.58 1.24 0.45 89.82 3.43 0.21 0.27
CL 0.44 0.86 0.62 0 98.01 0.07 0
WT 0.15 0.07 0.18 3.20 0.15 96.25 0
UL 2.75 0.05 4.83 0 16.83 0 75.54

calculated. The land use changes at these two stages showed marked fluctuations. Arable land, woodland and unused land
experienced a reversed trend of changes during the two periods.

4.3. Model application

The following procedures were performed using algorithms available in IDRISI Kilimanjaro and Image Processing
software in order to implement the CA–Markov model in the study area: (1) computation of land use transition potential
maps based on procedure, (2) computation of transition probabilities using Markov chain analysis, and (3) spatial allocation
of simulation land use probabilities base on a CA spatial filter. Land use pattern changes in 2015 were predicted using a
CA–Markov model based on Fangshan District of Beijing in 2008 as an initial state, for which the time interval was 7 years.
The Markov transition matrix can not only quantitatively explain the conversion between the types of land status, but
also reveal the transfer rate between the different types. The conversion matrix of land use types during 2001–2008 in
Table 2 can be summarized as follows:
(1) Arable land had a massive loss as a result of conversion to other land types, in the form of conversion from arable
land to garden and construction land, of which 7.96% was transformed to construction land and 4.07% into corner. The main
reason for the reduction of arable land is urbanization and agricultural structure adjustment, while the supplement of arable
land comes mainly from grassland and unused land.
(2) The increase in woodland mainly came from garden and unused land, which accounted for 80.8% of the total
conversion gain, 1.29% of which were transformed into construction land, 0.51% into corner, 0.44% transformed into
cultivated land, which increased some of the major sources of arable land and grassland.
(3) 5.26% of garden was transformed into construction land, 1.72% was transformed into arable land, and 1.61% into
woodland. There was little change in the total area of Garden, but there were increases and decreases, and there were
significant changes in the spatial distribution.
(4) There was a grassland loss of 3.62%, which was due mostly to conversion to arable land, garden and construction
land. At the secondary level of classification, conversion to woodland is the main reason for the shrinkage of dense cover
grassland.
(5) The conversion gain of waters was contributed mainly by grassland. The changes were small.
(6) The area converted to construction land mainly encompassed rural settlements and urban construction, which took
up lots of arable land, garden and woodland. And changes to other land use types are less.
(7) The main conversion was other unused land into construction land, woodland and cultivated land.
Studies have shown that unused land and forest land were the dominant land use types in Fangshan. Since 2001, farm land
had been shrinking while forest land and built-up areas had increased quickly. Among the various transformation types, the
changes from farm land to built-up land spread most significantly. Regions along railways and main roads as well as rivers
with intense human activity had a high local variability of land use distribution. Therefore they became more varied and the
spatial pattern of land use changes became more complex. The simulation result by the CA–Markov method showed that its
original rate of changes in trends and changes will keep constant from 2008 to 2015. Therefore, it is urgent to strengthen
the protection of farm land and water-bodies, to prevent acts of indiscriminate use of farmland in order to promote the
protection of farmland and the rational use of land.

5. Conclusion

Using land use maps (2001, 2006 and 2008), the CA–Markov model that combines the Markov chain analysis and CA
models successfully simulated land use changes in Fangshan. The number and spatial distribution of the area is analyzed,
 L. Sang et al. / Mathematical and Computer Modelling 54 (2011) 938–943 943

and the overall results are satisfactory: the seven land use types will maintain their changes in the direction and rates of
change. Therefore, it is urgent to strengthen the protection of arable land and water and prevent acts of indiscriminate use
of cultivated land in order to promote land protection and rational use of land.
This study represents an important contribution to land use modeling as shown by the CA–Markov land use simulation
model. In addition, the model considers only the surrounding natural environment, and the cellular is not moving. No
consideration is given to playing a decisive role in land use dynamics changes of the social environment and their
interactions. As a result, the human decision-making model for the simulation is still a weakness which needs further study.

Acknowledgements

This research was supported by National Science and Technology Ministry (No. 2006BAJ14B01-02) and Graduate
Research and Innovation Subject in China Agricultural University (No. kycx09125). The authors also thank Miss Gao for
comments on earlier versions of this paper.

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