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PRVIH POLA STOLJEΔA

KOMERCIJALNIH NUKLEARNIH
ELEKTRANA
THE FIRST HALF CENTURY OF
COMMERCIAL NUCLEAR
POWER PLANTS
Prof. dr. sc. Vladimir Knapp, SveuËiliπte u Zagrebu,
Fakultet elektrotehnike i raËunarstva,
Unska 3, 10000 Zagreb, Hrvatska
Marko KrejËi, dipl. ing., mr. sc. Josip Lebegner, HEP d.d.,
Ulica grada Vukovara 37, 10000 Zagreb, Hrvatska
Prof Vladimir Knapp, PhD, University of Zagreb, Faculty of Electrical
Engineering and Computing,
Unska 3, 10000 Zagreb, Croatia
Marko KrejËi, dipl. ing., Josip Lebegner, MSc, HEP d.d.,
Ulica grada Vukovara 37, 10000 Zagreb, Croatia

Nakon pet desetljeÊa postojanja nuklearna energetska industrija je sazrijela, a njen udio u
opskrbi elektriËnom energijom na svjetskoj razini je 16 %. »lanak daje pregled polustoljetnog
razvoja nuklearne tehnologije s naglaskom na miroljubivu primjenu. Okolnosti razvoja i kasnijeg
pada koriπtenja nuklearne energije analiziraju se s viπe aspekata. Opisuju se karakteristike
Ëetiri generacije nuklearnih reaktora, dostatnost rezervi urana kao nuklearnog goriva,
problematika zbrinjavanja radioaktivnog otpada te pitanja sigurnosti i ekonomiËnosti pogona
i proliferacije nuklearnih materijala. Analiziraju se glavne prednosti i nedostatci nuklearne
energije u svjetlu najava o znaËajnom proπirenju nuklearnih kapaciteta
After five decades that the nuclear power industry has been in existence, it has matured and
its share in the world energy supply is 16 %.The article provides a review of the development
of nuclear technology during the past half century, with emphasis upon peaceful applications.
The circumstances of the development and subsequent decline in the demand for electricity
from nuclear power plants are analyzed from several aspects. The characteristics of the
four generations of nuclear reactors, the sufficiency of the uranium reserves and nuclear
fuel, the problem of the disposal of radioactive wastes, the safety and cost-effectiveness of
nuclear power plants, and the proliferation of nuclear materials are also discussed. The chief
advantages and disadvantages of nuclear energy are analyzed in light of statements on the
significant expansion of nuclear capacities.
KljuËne rijeËi: nuklearna sigurnost, nuklearne elektrane, nuklearno gorivo,
proliferacija, radioaktivni otpad
Key words: nuclear fuel, nuclear power plants, nuclear safety, proliferation, radioactive waste

Knapp, V., Z.,


MustapiÊ,
Knapp,
KrejËi,
V., Z.,
MustapiÊ,
KriËka,
KrejËi,
M., T.,
Lebegner,
M., T.,
KriËka,
StaniÊ, Z.,
Lebegner,
J.,Biodizel
Prvih pola
J.,Biodiesel
StaniÊ, Z.,
kaostoljeÊa....,
The First as
alternativno
Half
Energija,
motorno
Century....,Engine
Alternative
god.
Energija,
gorivo,
55 (2006),
vol.
Fuel,
Energija,
br. 6.,god.
55 (2006),
Energija, vol.No.
str.55
55 6,
658(2006),
∑ 689 br. 6., str. 634 ∑ 657
p.p. 658
(2006), No.∑6,689
p.p. 634 ∑ 657 658
1 UVOD 1 INTRODUCTION
Kroz gotovo Ëetiri desetljeÊa nizala su se razna Over a period of nearly four decades, there were
otkriÊa vezana uz ionizirajuÊe zraËenje i strukturu various discoveries connected with ionizing
tvari, da bi 1939. Otto Hahn i Fritz Strassman radiation and the structure of matter. In 1939,
u Berlinu proveli eksperiment u kojem su uz Otto Hahn and Fritz Strassman, with the help of
pomoÊ Lise Meitner otkrili fisiju − cijepanje teæih Lise Meitner, conducted an experiment in Berlin
jezgri uz oslobaanje velikih koliËina energije. through which they discovered fission − the splitting
Temeljem tih istraæivanja, tri godine kasnije of heavy nuclei with the liberation of large amounts
Enrico Fermi konstruirao je prvi nuklearni reaktor of energy. Based upon these investigations, three
sa samoodræavajuÊom fisijom. Svijet je uπao u years later Enrico Fermi constructed the first
atomsko doba. nuclear reactor with self-sustaining fission. The
world had entered the Atomic Age.
Kroz iduÊih pet i pol desetljeÊa nuklearna tehno-
logija doæivjela je znaËajan razvoj i razliËite primje- During the subsequent five and a half decades,
ne. U tom je razdoblju prolazila kroz razdoblja nuclear technology underwent significant develop-
velikih oËekivanja, ali i velikih razoËaranja. Danas ment and various applications, with great expecta-
ponovno izgleda da nuklearna tehnologija moæe tions and great disappointments. Today it again ap-
ponuditi odgovore na energetske probleme. pears that nuclear technology can provide answers
to energy problems.
U proteklim godinama pokazale su se sve pred-
nosti, ali i svi nedostaci ove tenologije, a o njoj se During the past years, all the advantages and short-
i danas, kao o rijetko kojoj temi, joπ uvijek vode comings of this technology have become apparent,
brojne, æuËne polemike although polemics on the subject continue.

U ovom Êe se radu biti dan pregled najvaænijih This article will review the most significant aspects
aspekata razvoja nuklearne industrije i okolnosti u in the development of the nuclear industry and the
kojima se on zbivao. surrounding circumstances.

2 DRU©TVENE I POLITI»KE 2 THE SOCIAL AND POLITICAL


OKOLNOSTI RAZVOJA CIRCUMSTANCES OF
DEVELOPMENT
Razvoj nuklearne tehnologije od samih poËetaka
pobudio je velik interes, kako znanstvenih, tako From the very beginning, the development of nuclear
i vojnih i politiËkih krugova. S obzirom na ratno technology aroused great interest among scientific,
vrijeme u kojem se odvijao, nova su otkriÊa prvu military and political circles. Since this development
primjenu dobila u atomskoj bombi. Naæalost, occurred during wartime, the new discoveries were
tragedije Hiroshime i Nagasakija veÊ 60 godina initially applied to the atomic bomb. Unfortunately,
prate razvoj miroljubive primjene nuklearne the tragedies of Hiroshima and Nagasaki have cast a
energije. shadow on the development of peaceful applications
of nuclear energy for the past 60 years.
Razvoj nuklearne energetike i nuklearne industrije
u poslijeratnom razdoblju bio je i dalje obiljeæen The development of nuclear energetics and the
vojnom primjenom nuklearne energije. Tako su nuclear industry following the Second World War was
u poslijeratnom razdoblju mnoge dræave razvijale further characterized by the military applications of
nuklearne energetske programe samo kao komple- nuclear energy. Thus, many countries during the
ment vojnim programima. postwar period only developed nuclear energy pro-
grams as a complement to their military programs.
Prekretnicu u koriπtenju nuklearne energije iz
vojnih u energetske svrhe oznaËio je govor tada- The turning point in the use of nuclear energy
πnjeg predsjednika SAD-a, D. Eisenhowera, koji je from military to energy purposes was a speech by
1953. godine pred Ujedinjenim narodima odræao United States President Dwight D. Eisenhower in
govor Atomi za mir. Tri godine nakon toga prva 1953 before the United Nations, in which he spoke
komercijalna nuklearna elektrana Calder Hall about atoms for peace. Three years later, the first
poËela je proizvoditi nuklearnu energiju. Privatne commercial nuclear power plant, Calder Hall, began
tvrtke su uvidjele moguÊnosti nove tehnologije to produce nuclear energy. Private companies saw
te su se poËele sve viπe ukljuËivati u razvoj opportunities in the new technology and began

Knapp, V., KrejËi, M., Lebegner, J., Prvih pola stoljeÊa...., Energija, god. 55 (2006), br. 6., str. 658 ∑ 689
Knapp, V., KrejËi, M., Lebegner, J., The First Half Century...., Energija, vol. 55 (2006), No. 6, p.p. 658 ∑ 689 660
komercijalnih nuklearnih reaktora. OËekivanja od to be increasingly involved in the development of
nuklearne industrije bila su velika, a poslijeratno commercial nuclear reactors. The expectations from
raspoloæenje javnosti odraæavalo je vjeru u moguÊ- the nuclear industry were great and the postwar
nosti znanosti i novih tehnologija. public mood was positive toward the possibilities of
science and new technologies.
Predstavnici nuklearne industrije su, i sami po-
neseni spektakularnim rastom, mnogo obeÊavali. Representatives of the nuclear industry, themselves
Tako je Lewis L. Strauss, predsjedavajuÊi Komisije carried away by the spectacular growth, promised
za atomsku energiju 1954. godine izjavio da je much. Thus, Lewis L. Strauss, chairman the Atomic
realno oËekivati da Êe naπi potomci uæivati u Energy Commission, announced in the year 1954
elektriËnoj energiji toliko jeftinoj da je se neÊe that it was realistic to expect that our descendents
isplatiti naplaÊivati. would enjoy such inexpensive electricity that it would
be “too cheap to meter.”

Slika 1
Zemlje koje danas imaju
komercijalne nuklearne
reaktore i vrijeme puπtanja
u pogon prvih komercijalnih
nuklearnih postrojenja [1].
Figure 1
Countries with commercial
nuclear reactors today and
the years when the first
commercial nuclear power
plants went on line [1]

1954. Rusija / Russia 1969. Indija / India, ©vicarska / Switzerland 1982. Brazil / Brasil, Maarska / Hungary
1956. Velika Britanija / UK 1971. Pakistan / Pakistan 1983. Litva / Lithuania
1957. SAD / United States 1972. SlovaËka / Slovakia 1984. JAR / RSA
1958. Francuska / France 1973. Kazahstan* / Kazakhstan 1985. »eπka / Chech Republic
1961. NjemaËka / Germany 1974. Argentina / Argentina, Bugarska / Bulgaria 1989. Meksiko / Mexico
1962. Belgija / Belgium, Kanada / Canada 1975. Finska / Finland 1991. Kina / China
1963. Italija* / Italy, Japan / Japan 1976. Armenija / Armenia 1996. Rumunjska / Romania
1964. ©vedska / Sweden 1977. Koreja / Korea, Ukrajina / Ukraina
1968. Nizozemska / Netherland, ©panjolska / Spain 1981. Slovenija / Slovenia

*Italija i Kazahstan zatvorili su svoje nuklearne elektrane 1990. i 1999. godine / Italy and Kazakhstan closed their nuslear power plants in 1990 and 1999

S druge strane je pokroviteljstvo dræave i para- From the other side, state sponsorship and the par-
lelno razvijanje vojnih programa u znaËajnom allel development of military programs significantly
dijelu javnosti produbljivao animozitet prema heightened public animosity toward nuclear energy.
nuklearnoj energiji. U nadolazeÊim godinama taj In coming years, this burden would become too
Êe uteg postati preteæak za nuklearnu energetsku heavy for the nuclear power industry.
industriju.
Great incentive to the development of the nuclear
Veliki poticaj razvoju nuklearne industrije dala je power industry was provided by the oil crisis of
i naftna kriza 1973. godine (slika 2), te kasnije 1973 (Figure 2), and later the crisis in Iran that
krize u Iranu koje su uzrokovale skokovite poraste caused great increases in oil prices and forced
cijene nafte, te natjerale dræave da energetsku countries to place energy independence among
neovisnost postave kao jedan od prioriteta ener- their priorities in energy policy.
getske politike.

661 Knapp, V., KrejËi, M., Lebegner, J., Prvih pola stoljeÊa...., Energija, god. 55 (2006), br. 6., str. 658 ∑ 689
Knapp, V., KrejËi, M., Lebegner, J., The First Half Century...., Energija, vol. 55 (2006), No. 6, p.p. 658 ∑ 689
Slika 2
Povijesno kretanje
(USD/barel)
cijena nafte [2]
Figure 2
Historical trends in 100
oil prices [2]
80

Cijena nafte / Oil price


60

40

20

0
.

.
46

51

56

61

66

71

76

81

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96

01

06
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20
Nominalna cijena / Nominal price Godina / Year
Korigirano za inflaciju, 2005. / Corrected for inflation, 2005

U proljeÊe 1986. godine u ukrajinskoj elektrani In the spring of 1986, an accident occurred in
»ernobilj doπlo je do zloglasne nesreÊe na Reactor No. 4 at the Ukrainian nuclear power
reaktoru IV. Tridesetak osoba, uglavnom vatrogasci plant in Chernobyl. Approximately thirty persons,
koji su sanirali poæar na reaktoru izgubilo je mainly firefighters and rescue workers who sanified
æivote neposredno nakon nesreÊe, Ëitava okolna the fire in the reactor under control, lost their lives
naselja s ukupno 350 000 stanovnika su evaku- directly after the accident. The entire surrounding
irana i preseljena, a procjenjuje se da je do community of 350 000 inhabitants was evacuated
danas od posljedica te nesreÊe æivote moglo and relocated, and it is estimated that up to 4 000
izgubiti do 4 000 ljudi [3]. Taj je dogaaj bio persons could have lost their lives to date from the
prekretnica daljnjeg razvoja nuklearne industrije. consequences of this accident [3]. This event was
Za percepciju javnosti na Zapadu nije mnogo the turning point in the further development of the
znaËilo uvjeravanje nuklearnih pobornika da u nuclear industry. In the perception of the Western
zapadnim elektranama takva nesreÊa nije mogu- public, the assurances of nuclear supporters that
Êa, prvenstveno zbog znaËajnih razlika u dizajnu such an accident would be impossible in Western
same elektrane. »ernobilska katastrofa postala nuclear power plants, first of all due to the significant
je gotovo sinonim za nuklearnu energiju. Uz to differences in the designs of the power plants
je zbrinjavanje radioaktivnog otpada nagomilanog themselves, did not matter much. The Chernobyl
iz desetljeÊa rada elektrana javnost prepoznala catastrophe became practically synonymous with
kao joπ uvijek nerijeπen problem. U to vrijeme nuclear energy. Moreover, the disposal of radioactive
nuklearna industrija nije imala spreman uvjerljiv wastes that accumulate after decades of nuclear
i adekvatan odgovor na pitanja sigurnosti i zbri- power plant operation has been recognized by public
njavanja otpada. opinion as a problem that remains unsolved. At the
time, the nuclear industry did not have a convincing
Nakon katastrofe u »ernobilju nuklearke postaju and adequate response prepared to the questions of
neprijatelj broj jedan za gotovo sve organizacije safety and waste disposal.
zelenih u svijetu. Biti protiv bilo je in. To je prisililo
vlade zapadnih zemalja da poËnu odustajati od Following the Chernobyl catastrophe, nuclear
daljnjeg razvoja svojih nuklearnih programa, pa power plants became Public Enemy No. 1 for all
Ëak i napuπtati nuklearnu tehnologiju kao izvor the green organizations in the world. To be against
elektriËne energije. Tako je Austrija 1978. godine nuclear power was in. This forced the governments
donijela zakon kojim se zabranjuje uporaba nukle- of Western countries to begin to refrain from the
arne energije za proizvodnju elektriËne energije i further development of their nuclear programs, and
odustala od stavljanja u pogon potpuno dovrπene even to abandon nuclear technology as a source
elektrane Zwentendorf. Italija je 1990. godine of electricity. Thus, in 1978 a law was adopted in
prije isteka æivotnog vijeka trajno obustavila rad i Austria which prohibited the use of nuclear energy
posljednjeg od svoja Ëetiri nuklearna reaktora, dok for the production of electricity and prevented
su NjemaËka i ©vedska odluËile postupno smanjiti the completed Zwentendorf Nuclear Power Plant
broj svojih nuklearnih reaktora. from going on line. In 1990, Italy terminated the
operations of the last of its four nuclear reactors
before its working lifetime had expired, while

Knapp, V., KrejËi, M., Lebegner, J., Prvih pola stoljeÊa...., Energija, god. 55 (2006), br. 6., str. 658 ∑ 689
Knapp, V., KrejËi, M., Lebegner, J., The First Half Century...., Energija, vol. 55 (2006), No. 6, p.p. 658 ∑ 689 662
Prirodni plin postao je najpoæeljniji energent Germany and Sweden decided to reduce the
buduÊnosti u mnogim dræavama. Tako je udio numbers of their nuclear reactors gradually.
prirodnog plina u periodu od 1992. do 2003.
godine u europskoj energetskoj bilanci porastao sa Natural gas became the most desirable energy
6 % na 18 %, tj. njegova potroπnja za proizvodnju source of the future in many countries. During the
elektriËne energije poveÊana je viπe od 3,5 puta period from 1992 to 2003, the percentage of natural
[4]. gas in the European energy balance rose from 6 %
to 18 %, i.e. its consumption for the production of
Efekt staklenika uzrokovan antropogenim emisi- electricity rose over 3,5 times [4].
jama u atmosferu identificiran je kao prioritet
u globalnim naporima za oËuvanje okoliπa i The greenhouse effect caused by anthropogenic
pribliæavanje konceptu odræivog razvoja. Obovljivi emissions into the atmosphere was identified as a
izvori energije nudili su se kao rjeπenje, kako za priority in global efforts for protecting the environ-
pitanje zaπtite okoliπa, tako i za pitanje sigurnosti ment and approaching the concept of sustainable
opskrbe. Kao nuænost, prepoznate su i mjere development. Renewable energy sources were of-
πtednje energije i energetske efikasnosti. fered as solutions for the questions of environmental
protection and reliable supply. Energy saving and
Danas, dva desetljeÊa od »ernobilja i pet energy efficiency measures were recognized as ne-
desetljeÊa od Calder Halla, situacija se ponovno cessities.
mijenja. Velik porast potraænje za prirodnim
plinom u Europi uzrokovao je probleme u opskrbi Today, two decades after Chernobyl and five decades
i snaæan rast njegove cijene, a proπlogodiπnje after Calder Hall, the situation is changing again.
redukcije u isporuci ruskog plina pomogle su Tremendous growth in the European demand for
mnogim europskim dræavama spoznati posljedice natural gas has caused supply problems and con-
pretjerane energetske ovisnosti. S obzirom na siderable price increases. The 2006 cutbacks in the
predvieni porast potroπnje elektriËne energije, delivery of Russian gas helped many European coun-
oËekuje se da Êe do 2012. godine u Europi tries recognize the consequences of excessive energy
biti potrebno izgraditi najmanje 65 GW novih dependence. Due to expected growth in electricity
kapaciteta. SudeÊi prema najavama, taj kapacitet consumption, it is anticipated that Europe will need
Êe veÊim dijelom biti plinske elektrane πto znaËi at least 65 GW of new capacity by 2012. Judging
da Êe godiπnji uvoz plina u Europu sa sadaπnjih from announcements, this capacity will be met by
230 milijardi kubnih metara do 2012. godine gas power plants for the most part, which means
morati narasti na najmanje 465 milijardi kubnih that the annual gas imports to Europe, presently 230
metara [4]. billion cubic meters, will have to increase to a mini-
mum of 465 billion cubic meters by 2012 [4].
UnatoË velikim ulaganjima u obnovljive izvore
energije (biomasa, hidroenergija, energija vjetra, Despite great investments in renewable energy
SunËeva energija i geotermalna energija) njihov sources (biomass, hydro, wind, solar and geo-
udio u zadovoljenju ukupnih energetskih potreba thermal), their share in meeting the total energy
je joπ uvijek marginalan, tek oko 6 % na razini requirements is still marginal, only approximately
Europske unije, koja je predvodnik u koriπtenju 6 % at the level of the European Union, which is the
obnovljivih izvora. Posljedice efekta staklenika leader regarding the question of renewable energy
prepoznate su kao stvaran i vrlo aktualan sources. The consequences of the greenhouse effect
problem te izgleda da i zeleni polako prihvaÊaju are recognized as real and very current problems. It
da obnovljivi izvori i energetska efikasnost, iako appears that the Greens are slowly accepting that
korisni, ne mogu pruæiti rjeπenje na globalnoj renewable sources and energy efficiency, although
razini, niti ga mogu pruæiti dovoljno brzo, naroËito useful, cannot provide a solution on the global level
s obzirom na golem porast potraænje za energijom and cannot provide it quickly enough, especially
koju biljeæe ekonomije zemalja u razvoju, posebice taking into account the tremendous increase in
Kine i Indije (slika 3). energy demand that characterizes the economies of
developing countries, particularly China and India
(Figure 3).

663 Knapp, V., KrejËi, M., Lebegner, J., Prvih pola stoljeÊa...., Energija, god. 55 (2006), br. 6., str. 658 ∑ 689
Knapp, V., KrejËi, M., Lebegner, J., The First Half Century...., Energija, vol. 55 (2006), No. 6, p.p. 658 ∑ 689
Slika 3 (TWh/god./year)
Potroπnja elektriËne 10 000
energije u svijetu [5]
Figure 3 9 000

Electricity

Potroπnja elektriËne energije u svijetu /


8 000
consumption in the

Electricity consumption in the World


7 000
world [5]
6 000

5 000

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3 000

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0
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.
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Godina / Year
OECD
Zemlje u razvoju / Developing countries
Bivπi istoËni blok / Former eastern block

Kao posljedica svega navedenog, podrπka nukle- Due to all the above, public support for nuclear
arnoj energiji u javnosti ponovno poËinje rasti. energy is beginning to grow. In such a situation, an
U takvoj situaciji sve viπe zemalja ponovno increasing number of countries are reconsidering
razmatra uporabu nuklearne energije ili je veÊ the use of nuclear energy or have already inaugu-
pokrenulo ambiciozne nuklearne programe. Nu- rated ambitious nuclear programs. Under these new
klearna industrija u novim okolnostima gradi circumstances, the nuclear industry is building an
imidæ tehnologije koja u dostatnim koliËinama, image of a technology that can offer an alternative
na ekonomiËan i siguran naËin, moæe ponuditi to fossil fuels in sufficient quantities and cost ef-
alternativu fosilnim gorivima, istodobno ne emiti- fectively, without emitting greenhouse gases. Owing
rajuÊi stakleniËke plinove. ZahvaljujuÊi polusto- to half a century of experience, the nuclear industry
ljetnom iskustvu, nuklearna industrija nauËila se has learned to deal with its shortcomings and is
nositi s vlastitim nedostatcima te aktivno raditi na actively working to eliminate them.
njihovom otklanjanju.

3 URANIUM RESERVES
3 REZERVE URANA
In discussing the possibilities for the nuclear indus-
Za razmatranje moguÊnosti da nuklearna industrija try to assume a more significant role in the supply
preuzme znaËajniju ulogu u opskrbi elektriËnom of electrical energy, it is necessary to consider the
energijom potrebno je tehnologiju razmotriti i s technology from the aspect of resources, particu-
aspekta resursa, prije svega zaliha goriva. larly fuel reserves.

Svjetske zalihe urana procjenjuju se trenutaËno na World uranium reserves are currently estimated at
18 milijuna tona. Pri toj procjeni kao gornja cijena 18 million tons. With this estimate, the top price
isplativih rezervi uzeta je cijena od 130 USD/kg for cost-effective reserves is considered to be 130
prirodnog urana. USD/kg of natural uranium.

Knapp, V., KrejËi, M., Lebegner, J., Prvih pola stoljeÊa...., Energija, god. 55 (2006), br. 6., str. 658 ∑ 689
Knapp, V., KrejËi, M., Lebegner, J., The First Half Century...., Energija, vol. 55 (2006), No. 6, p.p. 658 ∑ 689 664
Slika 4
(10 3 t) Uran / Uranium
Potvrene svjetske
Australija / Australia 1 143 zalihe urana, s
Kazahstan / Kazakhstan 816
cijenom 130 USD/kg
urana [6]
Kanada / Canada 444
Figure 4
SAD / United States 342 Confirmed uranium
JAR / RSA 341 reserves in the world,
Namibija / Namibia 282 at the price of
130 USD/kg of
Brazil / Brasil 279
uranium [6]
Niger / Niger 225

Rusija / Russia 172


Ukupno / Total 4 743 000 t
Uzbekistan / Uzbekistan 116

Ukrajina / Ukraina 90

Jordan / Jordan 79

Indija / India 67

Kina / China 60

Ostali / Others 287

S danaπnjom potroπnjom urana od 68 000 tona At today’s rate of consumption (68 000 t/year),
godiπnje jednostavnom aritmetikom moæemo za- with simple arithmetic we can conclude that the
kljuËiti da su potvrene zalihe urana dostatne za confirmed uranium reserves are sufficient for 70
70 godina rada pod uvjetom da se potroπnja goriva years of operation, provided that fuel consumption
ne poveÊava (slika 4). does not increase (Figure 4).

S obzirom da pri sadaπnjim cijenama uranova ruda Since uranium ore accounts for only 2 % to 3 % of
u cijeni elektriËne energije iz nuklearnih elektrana the price of electricity generated by nuclear power
sudjeluje tek sa 2 % do 3 %, nuklearna industrija plants, the nuclear industry is fairly tolerant of the
priliËno je tolerantna na cijenu urana. Upravo iz tog price of uranium. It is for this reason that significant
se razloga ne poduzimaju znaËajnija istraæivanja prospecting for new reserves is not underway. If
novih rezervi. Ukoliko se graniËnu cijenu za defi- the uppermost price for defining the available
niranje dostupnih rezervi urana podigne sa 130 uranium reserves were to rise from 130 USD/kg to
USD/kg na 260 USD/kg urana (πto bi cijenu 260 USD/kg of uranium (which would raise the price
elektriËne energije podiglo tek za pribliæno 3 %), of electricity by approximately 3 %), the available
dostupne rezerve urana se poveÊavaju za faktor uranium reserves would increase by a factor of 3.
3. Intenziviranje aktivnosti oko istraæivanja novih The intensification of prospecting for new uranium
nalaziπta, moglo bi poveÊati dostupne rezerve i za deposits could increase the available reserves by
faktor 10. Koriπtenje tehnologija s gorivim ciklusima a factor of 10. The use of technologies with more
sofisticiranijim od danas prevladavajuÊeg once sophisticated fuel cycles than the once-through fuel
through poveÊale bi energiju dostupnu iz sadaπnjih cycles prevailing today would increase the available
rezervi za faktor 1,3 (reprocesiranje jednom) do energy from the current reserves by a factor of
60 (kombiniranje viπestrukog reprocesiranja i 1,3 (reprocessing once) to 60 (combined multiple
brzih oplodnih reaktora), dok se oËekuje da Êe i reprocessing and fast reactors), while it is anticipated
samo unaprjeenje sadaπnjih lakovodnih reaktora that merely improving the current light-water reactors
donijeti racionalizaciju u koriπtenju urana za oko would provide approximately 25 % rationalization
25 % u bliæoj buduÊnosti. Uz rezerve prirodnog in the use of uranium in the near future. Besides
urana moguÊe je u nuklearnim reaktorima iskoristiti the natural uranium reserves, in nuclear reactors it
i nuklearni materijal u postojeÊim nuklearnim bom- is also possible to use nuclear material in existing
bama (pribliæno 2 000 tona visokoobogaÊenog nuclear bombs (approximately 2 000 tons of highly
urana i pribliæno 260 tona plutonija), πto bi bilo enriched uranium and nearly 260 tons of plutonium),
dovoljno za pokrivanje danaπnje svjetske potroπnje which would be sufficient for covering current world
u iduÊih nekoliko godina. consumption for several years.

U sluËaju znaËajnijeg porasta cijene urana, u In the event of more significant increases in uranium
perspektivi je moguÊe razmatrati koriπtenje tzv. ne- prices, it is also possible to consider using the
konvencionalnih rezervi urana; iz fosfatnih naslaga so-called unconventional uranium reserves, from
i iz morske vode. Uran iz tih izvora poveÊava phosphate deposits and seawater. Uranium from
sadaπnje rezerve za faktor 4,5 (fosfatne naslage), phosphate deposits would increase the current
odnosno Ëak pribliæno 850 (morska voda). reserves by a factor of 4,5 and from seawater by a
factor of 850.

665 Knapp, V., KrejËi, M., Lebegner, J., Prvih pola stoljeÊa...., Energija, god. 55 (2006), br. 6., str. 658 ∑ 689
Knapp, V., KrejËi, M., Lebegner, J., The First Half Century...., Energija, vol. 55 (2006), No. 6, p.p. 658 ∑ 689
Danaπnji naËin koriπtenja urana moæe se smatrati Today’s manner of using uranium resources could
s aspekta tog resursa priliËno neracionalan, te je be called irrational. It is evident that there are
evidentno da postoje razne moguÊnosti kojima je various possibilities whereby the energy contained
energiju sadræanu u uranu moguÊe iskorisiti na in uranium can be harnessed in a manner that is
viπestruko efikasniji naËin. Ukoliko Êe se neke many times more efficient. Insofar as some of the
od navedenih opcija implementirati zajedno, cited options will be implemented together, the
dostupna energija iz urana poveÊat Êe se i available energy from uranium will increase many
mnogostruko viπe. more times.

Slijedom navedenog moguÊe je zakljuËiti da Consequently, it is possible to conclude that the


rezerve urana nisu ograniËavajuÊi faktor za razvoj uranium reserves are not a limiting factor for
nuklearne industrije. Takoer nije zanemariva the development of the nuclear power industry.
niti Ëinjenica da su svjetske rezerve urana ravno- Furthermore, the fact should not be ignored that the
mjernije rasporeene od primjerice nafte i plina, world uranium reserves are more evenly distributed
te da se dobar dio tih rezervi nalazi u politiËki than, for example, oil and gas, and that a good
stabilnim zemljama. portion of these reserves are located in politically
stable countries.
Osim goriva, kratkoroËni ograniËavajuÊi faktori su
resursi same industrije. Naime, nakon gotovo dva In addition to fuels, the resources of the industry
desetljeÊa stagnacije i rezanja troπkova, nuklearna itself are short-term limiting factors. After nearly
industrija priliËno je smanjila svoje kapacitete, two decades of stagnation and cutting costs, the
kako u pogledu proizvodnje, tako i u pogledu nuclear industry has reduced its capacities some-
ljudskih resursa. Najavljivani rast nuklearne indus- what, in terms of production and human resources.
trije, bez sumnje Êe biti potrebno poduprijeti i The heralded growth of the nuclear industry will un-
stvaranjem novih kapaciteta, kako industrijskih doubtedly have to be supported by new capacities,
tako i ljudskih. both industrial and human.

4 TEHNOLO©KI RAZVOJ 4 TECHNOLOGICAL


DEVELOPMENT
4.1 Generacija I.
Danaπnji nuklearni reaktori uglavnom su reaktori 4.1 Generation I
takozvane Generacije II. i III. dok su svi reaktori Today’s nuclear reactors are generally reactors of
prve generacije umirovljeni [7]. the so-called Generations II and III, while all the
Generation I reactors have been retired [7].
Prvu samoodræavajuÊu nuklearnu reakciju ostvario
je Enrico Fermi sa suradnicima koncem 1942. The first self-sustaining nuclear reaction was
godine na SveuËiliπtu u Chicagu. ElektriËna achieved by Enrico Fermi and his associates in late
energija iz nuklearnog reaktora po prvi put je 1942 at the University of Chicago. Electricity from
proizvedena koncem 1951. godine iz ameriËkog a nuclear reactor was first produced in late 1951
eksperimentalnog reaktora EBR-1, a prva nu- from the American experimental reactor EBR-1,
klearna elektrana za proizvodnju elektriËne ener- and the first nuclear power plant for the production
gije zapoËela je s radom 27. lipnja 1954. godine of electricity began operations on June 27, 1954 in
u Obninsku u Rusiji. Obninsk, Russia.

Mnogi reaktori Generacije I. bili su, poput reak- Many Generation I reactors, such as the Fermi 1
tora Fermi 1, jedinstveni i nisu se viπe gradili reactor, were unique and are no longer being con-
za razliku od reaktora Generacije II. koji su se structed, unlike Generation II reactors which were
gradili u serijama i koji su, iako individualno built in series and which, although designed indi-
dizajnirani, koristili iste dizajnerske principe. Neki vidually, share the same designing principles. Some
reaktori prve genercije poput Magnox reaktora, uz Generation I reactors, such as the Magnox reactor,
manje izmjene, evoluirali su u drugu generaciju evolved with minor changes into the Generation II
nuklearnih reaktora koja se poËela graditi od nuclear reactors that were first constructed in the
sredine 60-ih godina proπlog stoljeÊa. mid 1960s.

Knapp, V., KrejËi, M., Lebegner, J., Prvih pola stoljeÊa...., Energija, god. 55 (2006), br. 6., str. 658 ∑ 689
Knapp, V., KrejËi, M., Lebegner, J., The First Half Century...., Energija, vol. 55 (2006), No. 6, p.p. 658 ∑ 689 666
4.2 Generacija II. 4.2 Generation II
Nuklearni reaktori druge generacije razvili su se Generation II nuclear reactors developed from their
iz svojih prethodnika i gradili su se Ëitavih 30 predecessors and were built for a full 30 years, until
godina, do sredine 90-ih godina. Promjene u the mid 1990s. Changes in design were significant
dizajnu bile su znaËajne, no ipak ne u cijelosti but not entirely revolutionary.
revolucionarne.
Typical representatives of the longest epoch in the
TipiËni predstavnici ove najduæe epohe u razvo- development of nuclear energy, that flourished
ju nuklearne energetike, koja je doæivjela svoj during the 1970s but experienced a steep drop
procvat poËetkom 70-ih godina ali i strmoglavi in orders in the 1980s, are the Pressurized Water
pad narudæbi 80-tih godina, su tlakovodni reaktori Reactor − PWR, Boiling Water Reactor − BWR, and
(PWR − Pressurised Water Reactor), kljuËajuÊi Advanced Gas Reactor − AGR.
reaktori (BWR − Boiling Water Reactor) i napredni
plinom hlaeni reaktori (AGR − Advanced Gas Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR)
Reactors). PWR reactors are the most widespread type of
nuclear reactors in the world. Over 230 of them
Tlakovodni reaktori PWR (Pressurized Water are in use for electricity production and several
Reactor) hundred for the powering of nuclear submarines,
PWR reaktori najraπireniji su tip nuklearnih for which they were originally designed. Water
reaktora u svijetu, njih viπe od 230 koristi se za under high pressure is used for cooling and the
proizvodnju elektriËne energije, a nekoliko stotina moderation of neutrons, and uranium-235 enriched
za pogon nuklearnih podmornica za πto su izvorno by several percentage points is generally used for
i bili dizajnirani. Za hlaenje i za moderaciju fuel. The only Croatian-Slovenian nuclear power
neutrona koriste vodu pod visokim tlakom, a plant, Krπko, is also of the PWR type. A similar
kao gorivo se obiËno koristi nekoliko postotaka series of pressurized water reactors known as Water-
obogaÊen uran-235. Jedina hrvatsko-slovenska Cooled Water-Modulated Energy Reactors (WWER
nuklearka Krπko takoer je PWR tipa. SliËna serija or VVER) was built in the former Soviet Union and
tlakovodnihn reaktora pod nazivom VVER (Vodo- the countries of the Warsaw block. The first reactors
vodnoj energetiËeskij reaktor) graena je u bivπem of this type were developed prior to the year 1970,
Sovjetskom Savezu i dræavama Varπavskog bloka. while the new design with 1 000 MW of power was
Prvi reaktori ovog tipa razvijeni su prije 1970. developed in 1975. Besides being very similar to
godine, dok je noviji dizajn snage 1 000 MW the PWR, it followed a similar developmental path,
razvijen 1975. godine. Osim πto je vrlo sliËan since it was initially developed for use in Russian
PWR-u proπao je i sliËan razvojni put, buduÊi da je nuclear submarines and warships. As with the
prvotno razvijan za koriπtenje u ruskim nuklearnim PWR, the fuel is slightly enriched uranium dioxide,
podmornicama i ratnim brodovima. Kao i u PWR-u, and the moderator and coolant are ordinary water.
gorivo je malo obogaÊeni uranov dioksid UO2, a Today, approximately 50 reactors of this type are in
moderator i hladioc je obiËna voda. Danas je u operation.
pogonu oko 50 reaktora ovog tipa.
Boiling Water Reactor (BWR)
KljuËajuÊi reaktori BWR (Boiling Water Reactor) A BWR is a type of light-water reactor developed by
BWR reaktor vrsta je lakovodnih reaktora koju je General Electric in the mid 1950s. Boiling water
razvio General Electric sredinom 50-ih. KljuËajuÊa in the reactor core is the working medium that is
voda u reaktorskoj jezgri je radni medij koji se used to conduct heat away from the nuclear fuel
koristi za odvoenje topline s nuklearnog goriva and reduce the kinetic energy of neutrons in order
i za usporavanje neutrona kako bi se poveÊala to increase the probability of nuclear fission. Due to
vjerojatnost nuklearne fisije. Zbog svoje robusnosti their bulk and relatively simple construction, these
i relativno jednostavne izvedbe ovi reaktori se nisu reactors were not developed to power submarines
razvijali za pogon podmornica, nego iskljuËivo za but exclusively for the production of low-cost
proizvodnju jeftine elektriËne energije. Za razliku electricity. Unlike PWRs, the steam produced in the
od PWR-a, para proizvedena u reaktoru ide izravno reactor goes directly to the turbine. Today, over 80
do turbine. Danas je u pogonu viπe od 80 BWR BWRs are in operation.
reaktora.
Cada Deuterium Uranium Reactor (CANDU)
CANDU (Cada Deuterium Uranium) The CANDU reactor was developed in the late
CANDU reaktor razvijen je u kasnim 50-im i ranim 1950s and early 1960s in Canada. This is a
60-im godinama u Kanadi. RijeË je o tlakovodnom pressurized reactor cooled with heavy water. The
reaktoru hlaenom teπkom vodom. Gorivo je fuel is contained in pressure tubes surrounded by
smjeπteno u tlaËne cijevi, okruæene teπkom vodom heavy water at low pressure. Due to its superior

667 Knapp, V., KrejËi, M., Lebegner, J., Prvih pola stoljeÊa...., Energija, god. 55 (2006), br. 6., str. 658 ∑ 689
Knapp, V., KrejËi, M., Lebegner, J., The First Half Century...., Energija, vol. 55 (2006), No. 6, p.p. 658 ∑ 689
pod niskim pritiskom. Teπka voda zbog boljih moderating properties, heavy water permits the
moderacijskih svojstava omoguÊuje koriπtenje use of natural uranium for fuel. Approximately 40
prirodnog urana za gorivo. Danas je u pogonu oko CANDU reactors are in operation today, mainly in
40 CANDU reaktora, uglavnom u Canadi i Indiji. Canada and India.

Napredni plinom hlaeni reaktor AGR (Advanced Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR)
Gas Reactor) AGRs are representatives of the second generation
AGR reaktori predstavnici su druge generacije of British gas-cooled reactors that came about
britanskih plinom hlaenih reaktora nastalih with the development of Maxnox reactors. AGRs
razvojem Magnox reaktora. AGR koriste grafit kao use graphite as the neutron moderator and
neutronski moderator i ugljiËni dioksid za hlaenje carbon dioxide for cooling the fuel. Unlike their
goriva. Za razliku od svojih prethodnika, ovi reaktori predecessors, these reactors use high temperature
radi veÊeg iskoriπtenja koriste viπe temperature coolants for greater efficiency. Furthermore, they
hladioca. Takoer kao gorivo koriste obogaÊeni use enriched uranium as fuel, thereby reducing
uran Ëime je smanjena potreba za uËestalim the need for frequent fuel replacement. There are
zamjenama goriva. Danas je u pogonu sedam AGR seven AGR reactors in operation today, with power
reaktora. Snage su im 555 MW ili 625 MW. Svi ratings of 555 MW or 625 MW. All these reactors
reaktori nalaze se u Velikoj Britaniji. are located in Great Britain.

KipuÊi reaktor kanalnog tipa RBMK (Reaktor High Power Channel Type Reactor (Reaktor Bolshoy
baljπoj maπÊnosti Kanaljnij) Moshchnosti Kanalniy − RBMK)
RBMK je danas zastarjeli tip grafitnih reaktora The RBMK is now an obsolete type of graphite-
hlaenih vodom. Ozloglaπeni predstavnik ove moderated water-cooled reactor. The infamous
generacije nuklearnh reaktora je »ernobilj. Kako je representative of this generation of nuclear reactors
VVER reaktor bio tehnoloπki puno zahtjevniji, bivπi was located at Chernobyl. Since the WWER was
Sovjetski Savez se viπe zalagao za gradnju RBMK technologically more demanding, the former Soviet
reaktora. Osim povoljnih ekonomskih okolnosti, Union invested more in the building of RBMK
RBMK je mogao koristiti prirodni uran kao gorivo, reactors. Besides economic considerations, the
koje se moglo mijenjati tijekom pogona, dakle bez RBMK was able to use natural uranium as fuel,
zaustave i reaktor je proizvodio plutonij za vojne which could be changed during operation, i.e.
svrhe. Danas je u pogonu joπ desetak RBMK without shutting down, and the reactor produced
reaktora i to iskljuËivo u Rusiji. plutonium for military purposes. There are still
RBMKs in operation today, exclusively in Russia.

4.3 Generacija III.


Reaktori ove generacije razvijeni su (i joπ se 4.3 Generation III
razvijaju) poboljπanjem dizajna reaktora iz pret- Reactors of this generation were developed (and
hodne generacije. Posebno je poboljπana tehno- continue to be developed) by improving the design
logija izrade nuklearnog goriva te sigurnosni of reactors from the previous generation, particularly
sustavi. the fuel technologies and safety systems.

Prvi reaktor ove generacije u pogonu je od 1996. The first reactor of this generation has been in
godine u Japanu. Tipovi reaktora Generacije III. su operation in Japan since 1996. The types of
EPR, AP 1000, ABWR i System 80+. Generation III reactors are the European Pressurized
Reactor − EPR, the Advanced Passive 1000 − AP
Europski tlakovodni reaktor EPR (European 1000, the Advanced Boiling Water Reactor − ABWR
Pressurized Reactor) and System 80+.
Ovaj reaktor razvija francusko-njemaËki konzorcij
Areva/Siemens. Reaktor moæe koristiti 5 % oboga- European Pressurized Reactor (EPR)
Êeni uran ili MOX gorivo (mijeπani oksid urana i This reactor was developed by the French-German
plutonija). Dizajn reaktora je napredan u prvom consortium of Areva/Siemens. The reactor can use
redu zbog poveÊane sigurnosti (dodano nekoliko 5% enriched uranium oxide or MOX (mixed uranium
pasivnih sigurnosnih sustava), ali i zbog velike plutonium oxide) fuel. The reactor design is advanced,
izlazne snage (1 600 MW). first of all due to increased safety (several passive
safety systems have been added), but also due to the
U tijeku je gradnja prvog reaktora ove vrste u high electrical power output (1 600 MW).
Finskoj (Olkiluoto 3). Meutim, zbog odreenih
problema u gradnji, datum puπtanja elektrane u The construction of the first reactor of this type is
pogon pomaknut je za viπe od 18 mjeseci, tako in progress in Finland (Olkiluoto 3). However, due

Knapp, V., KrejËi, M., Lebegner, J., Prvih pola stoljeÊa...., Energija, god. 55 (2006), br. 6., str. 658 ∑ 689
Knapp, V., KrejËi, M., Lebegner, J., The First Half Century...., Energija, vol. 55 (2006), No. 6, p.p. 658 ∑ 689 668
da se prvi kilovatsati oËekuju tek poËetkom 2011. to certain construction problems, the date that this
godine. Vrijednost projekta procijenjena je na oko power plant will go on line has been postponed for
3 milijarde eura. over 18 months, so that the first kilowatt hours are
not expected until early 2011. This project has been
AP1000 estimated to cost approximately 3 billion euros.
AP 1000 napredni je reaktor snage oko 1100 MW
koji kao i EPR koristi napredne pasivne sigurnosne Advanced Passive 1000 (AP 1000)
sustave. AP1000 ima znatno manje ventila, manje The AP 1000 is an advanced reactor designed
cjevovoda, manje kabela, manje pumpi, manje to generate approximately 1 100 MW, which like
sustava za hlaenje, ventilaciju i zagrijavanje te the EPR uses advanced passive safety systems.
45 % manji volumen reaktorske zgrade u odnosu The AP 1000 has significantly fewer valves, less
na konvencionalne PWR elektrane. Navedene piping, less cable, fewer pumps, smaller HVAC
redukcije vode velikim uπtedama u troπkovima (heating, ventilation and air conditioning) and
izgradnje, ali i u trajanju izgradnje (3 godine). 45 % less building volume than a conventional
Dizajn kojeg razvija Westinghouse sluæbeno je PWR plant. These reductions lead to great savings
odobren koncem 2005. godine i tijekom 2007. i in construction costs and time (3 years). The design
2008. godine oËekuju se narudæbe za gradnju 10 developed by Westinghouse was officially approved
reaktora [8]. in late 2005. Orders are anticipated in 2007 and
2008 for the construction of ten reactors [8].
Napredni kljuËajuÊi reaktor ABWR (Advanced
Boiling Water Reactor) Advanced Boiling Water Reactor (ABWR)
ABWR napredni je dizajn kljuËajuÊeg reaktora The ABWR is an advanced boiling water reactor
kojeg razvija General Electric. Glavno poboljπanje developed by General Electric. The chief
u odnosu na postojeÊe BWR reaktore je smjeπtaj improvement in comparison to existing BWRs is the
recirkulacijske pumpe i cjevovoda unutar reaktor- containment of the recirculation pumps and piping
ske tlaËne posude, Ëime je reducirana moguÊnost inside the reactor pressure vessel, which reduces
curenja hladioca. U sluËaju gubitka hladioca od- the possibility of coolant leakage. In the event of
govor elektrane je u cijelosti automatiziran buduÊi a Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA), plant response
da Ëak 72 sata nije potrebna nikakva reakcija has been fully automated and no operator action is
operatera. Tri reaktora ove vrste trenutaËno su required for 72 hours. Three reactors of this type
u pogonu u Japanu, a nekoliko ih je u izgradnji are already in operation in Japan, several are under
(Japan) ili se planira njihova gradnja (Japan, construction in Japan, or are planned in Japan and
SAD). the United States.

Napredni tlakovodni reaktor System 80+ System 80+ Advanced Pressurized Water Reactor
Ovaj reaktorski dizajn razvija ABB Combustion (System 80+ APWR)
Engineering. Snaga reaktora iznosi 1 300 MW, This reactor design was developed by ABB
a jedna od njegovih posebnosti je koriπtenje Combustion Engineering. The reactor generates
plutonijevog goriva, πto ga Ëini zanimljivim u 1 300 MW. One of its advantages is the use of
smislu koriπtenja zaliha nuklearnih materijala iz plutonium fuel, making it interesting in the sense
atomskih bombi. Ovaj tip reaktora razvijen je iz of being a useful means for the disposal of Weapon
sliËnog reaktora PWR reaktora System 80 koji je Graded Plutonium from dismantled nuclear war-
veÊ u pogonu u nekoliko nuklearnih elektrana u heads. This reactor type was developed from a
SAD-u i Koreji. similar System 80 PWR that is already in operation
at several nuclear power plants in the United States
and Korea.
4.4 Generacija III+
Reaktori koji, iako dijelom revolucionarni, ne
zadovoljavaju kriterije reaktora Generacije IV. 4.4 Generation III+
nazivaju se reaktori III+ generacije. Najrazvijeniji Reactors which, although somewhat revolutionary,
prototipovi iz ove generacije su kipuÊi reaktor s do not meet the criteria of Generation IV reactors
pojednostavljenom ekonomijom (ESBWR − Economic are known as Generation III+ reactors. The most
Simpified Boiling Water Reactor) i Pebble bed advanced prototypes from this generation are the
modular reactor (PBMR). Economic Simplified Boiling Water Reactor − ESBWR
and the Pebble Bed Modular Reactor − PBMR.

669 Knapp, V., KrejËi, M., Lebegner, J., Prvih pola stoljeÊa...., Energija, god. 55 (2006), br. 6., str. 658 ∑ 689
Knapp, V., KrejËi, M., Lebegner, J., The First Half Century...., Energija, vol. 55 (2006), No. 6, p.p. 658 ∑ 689
ESBWR Economic Simplified Boiling Water Reactor (ESBWR)
Razvoj ESBWR-a se temelji na usavrπenom The development of the ESBWR was based upon
plinom hlaenom reaktoru (ABWR − Advanced improvements made in the gas-cooled Advanced
Boiling Water Reactor). I ovaj reaktor je dizajnirao Boiling Water Reactor − ABWR. This reactor was also
General Electric i temelji se na tehnologiji kipuÊih designed by General Electric and is based upon the
reaktora. technology of boiling water reactors.

Reaktor je pasivno siguran, πto znaËi da za The reactor is a passively safe design, which means
njegovu zaustavu u sluËaju nekog izvanrednog that in the event of some exceptional occurence that
dogaaja koji bi u konaËnici mogao rezultirati could result in the meltdown of the core, no special
taljenjem jezgre nije potrebna posebna reakcija reaction is required from the operator or any electronic
operatera niti bilo kojeg elektronskog ureaja. equipment. The passive safety of this reactor is based
Pasivna sigurnost je kod ovog reaktora temeljena upon two safety systems. The first components are
na dva sigurnosna sustava: prva komponenta su isolation condensers, which are heat exchangers
izolacijski kondenzatori ili izmjenjivaËi topline koji that take the steam from the reactor vessel or the
preuzimaju paru iz reaktora ili zaπtitne posude containment, condense it, transfer the heat to a water
(containmenta), kondenziraju je, prenose toplinu u pool and return the water into the reactor. The second
bazen s vodom te vraÊaju vodu ponovno u reaktor, system is the Gravity Driven Cooling System (GDCS),
dok se drugi sustav temelji na gravitaciji. Sustav which automatically floods the reactor with water
automatski potapa reaktor vodom iz zasebnog from separate pool above the vessel in the event that
bazena iznad reaktora ukoliko doe do pada razine a low water level is detected in the reactor.
vode u reaktoru.
The reactor is cooled by the natural circulation of the
Reaktor se hladi prirodnom cirkulacijom hladioca, coolant. There are no special pumps for circulation
nema posebnih pumpi za cirkulaciju niti cjevovoda. or piping. Therefore, the core is shorter than in
Jezgra je zbog toga kraÊa od tradicionalnih BWR conventional BWRs. Below the reactor is a piping
reaktora. Ispod reaktora smjeπten je sustav cjevo- system that allows for the cooling of the core in the
voda koji omoguÊuje hlaenje jezgre tijekom event of a very severe accident.
ozbiljne nesreÊe.
The probability of the release of radioactive material
Vjerojatnost istjecanja radioaktivne materije u into the atmosphere is several orders of magnitude
atmosferu je nekoliko redova veliËine niæa nego lower than for conventional reactors, and the esti-
kod konvencionalnih reaktora, a oËekivani troπak mated building cost is 60 − 70 % lower than for other
izgradnje je Ëak 60 % do 70 % niæi nego kod light-water reactors. The anticipated power rating of
lakovodnih reaktora. Predviena elektriËna snaga such a reactor is 1 550 MW.
takvog reaktora je 1 550 MW.
Pebble Bed Modular Reactor (PBMR)
PBMR (Pebble Bed Modular Reaktor) This reactor is one of the advanced reactor designs
Ovaj reaktor jedan je od naprednih reaktorskih with significantly higher efficiency and safety. Instead
dizajna sa znaËajno veÊom iskoristivoπÊu i viπom of water, it uses graphite as the moderator and an inert
sigurnosnom razinom. Reaktor umjesto vode koristi or semi-inert gas (helium, nitrogen or carbon dioxide)
grafit kao moderator te neki poluinertni plin (helij, as the coolant, which reaches very high temperatures
duπik ili ugljiËni dioksid) kao hladioc koji dostiæe and enters the gas turbine directly. In this manner,
vrlo visoke temperature i izravno ulazi u plinsku it eliminates an entire series of intermediary
turbinu. Na taj naËin uspjeπno se uklanja Ëitav systems, such as the steam generator, and increases
niz meusustava (npr. parogeneratori) i podiæe transfer efficiency to approximately 50 %. The fuel
iskoristivost na pribliæno 50 %. Gorivo se izrauje is manufactured in a pebble shape, with a core of
u obliku kuglica (pebble = oblutak) s jezgrom od enriched uranium and graphite covering. The reactor
obogaÊenog urana i grafitnim plaπtem. Reaktor also has passive safety. An additional advantage is
takoer posjeduje pasivnu sigurnost, a dodatna mu that the fuel can be changed during operation. This
je prednost πto se gorivo moæe mijenjati tijekom reactor design was initially developed by the German
pogona. Ovaj reaktorski dizajn inicijalno je razvijao firm of Siemens. Westinghouse, the Republic of South
njemaËki Siemens, a danas na njegovom razvoju Africa and China are currently working on its further
radi Westinghouse, JuænoafriËka Republika i Kina. development. During 2007, the beginning of the
Tijekom 2007. godine u JuænoafriËkoj Republici construction of a demonstration reactor is planned
planira se poËeti s gradnjom probnog reaktora koji in the Republic of South Africa, which should be
bi trebao biti gotov do 2011. godine, a 2013. completed by 2011, and commercial construction
godine trebala bi zapoËeti komercijalna gradnja. should start in the year 2013.

Knapp, V., KrejËi, M., Lebegner, J., Prvih pola stoljeÊa...., Energija, god. 55 (2006), br. 6., str. 658 ∑ 689
Knapp, V., KrejËi, M., Lebegner, J., The First Half Century...., Energija, vol. 55 (2006), No. 6, p.p. 658 ∑ 689 670
4.5 Generacija IV. 4.5 Generation IV
Reaktori Generacije IV. skup su novih i naprednih Generation IV reactors are a group of new and
tehniËkih rjeπenja koja su trenutaËno u razvojnoj advanced technical solutions that are currently in
fazi. Generalno, za te se reaktore ne oËekuje da the developmental stage. It is generally not expected
Êe biti raspoloæivi za komercijalnu proizvodnju that these reactors will be available for commercial
prije 2030. godine. Istraæivanja o ovoj najnovijoj construction before the year 2030. Research on
generaciji nuklearnih reaktora zapoËeo je Meu- this newest generation of nuclear reactors was
narodni forum reaktora IV. generacije (Generation begun by the Generation IV International Forum
IV. International Forum). Primarni ciljevi Foruma (GIF). The primary goals of the forum are to
su poboljπanje nuklearne sigurnosti, smanjenje improve nuclear safety, reduce the possibilities for
moguÊnosti proliferacije, smanjenje nuklearnog proliferation, minimize nuclear waste and lower the
otpada i smanjenje troπkova gradnje i kasnijeg cost of building and running such plants.
pogona takvih elektrana.
It should be mentioned that for achieving such
Treba napomenuti da je za ostvarenje takvih goals, it is necessary to devise new tools for the
ciljeva nuæno osmisliti i nove alate za ekonomsku economic assessment of the justification for build-
procjenu opravdanosti gradnje reaktora IV. ing Generation IV reactors, since their character-
generacije, buduÊi da se njihove karakteristike istics differ significantly from those of the current
bitno razlikuju od postojeÊih reaktora II. i III. Generation II and III reactors.
generacije.
Initially, a large number of various reactor designs
PoËetno je razmatran veliki broj raznih reaktorskih were considered. Their number was eventually
dizajna, no njihov broj je ipak reduciran kako bi reduced in order to focus on the most promising
se bilo moguÊe fokusirati na najperspektivnije technologies. Today, the most discussed are four
tehnologije. Danas se najviπe govori o Ëetiri representatives of thermal reactors and the same
predstavnika termalnih reaktora i isto toliko brzih number of fast reactors.
oplodnih reaktora.
Very High Temperature Reactor (VHTR)
Visokotemperaturni reaktor VHTR (Very High The VHTR concept is based upon a helium-
Temperature Reactor) cooled core with graphite as the moderator and a
VHTR koncept temelji se na helijem hlaenoj jezgi uranium-fueled cycle. It will be possible to reach
s grafitom kao moderatorom i uranovom gorivnom a temperature of 1 000 °C inside the reactor. The
ciklusu. U reaktoru Êe se moÊi dostiÊi temperatura core can be of either a prismatic block or pebble
od 1 000 °C. Jezgra moæe biti u obliku prizme ili bed form. In both cases, the uranium is imbedded
kuglica. U oba sluËaja uran je uloæen u grafit. Za in graphite. The VHTR also implies passive safety.
VHTR takoer se podrazumijeva pasivna sigurnost.
Supercritical Water Cooled Reactor (SCWR)
SuperkritiËni vodom hlaeni reaktor SCWR The SCWR is a water cooled reactor concept that
(Supercritical Water Cooled Reactor) uses supercritical water as the working fluid.
SuperkritiËni vodom hlaeni reaktor je koncept koji The SCWR is basically a light-water reactor that
koristi superkritiËnu vodu kao radni medij. SCWR je operates at higher pressures and temperatures than
u svojoj osnovi lakovodni reaktor koji radi na puno classical PWRs and BWRs. Its basic advantages
viπem tlaku i temperaturi od klasiËnih PWR-a i are a significantly higher thermal efficiency (45 %)
BWR-a. Njegove osnovne prednosti su znaËajno veÊi in comparison to 33 % efficiency for current
stupanj toplinskog iskoriπtenja (45 %) u odnosu na light-water reactors and significant technological
33 % iskoristivosti klasiËnih lakovodnih reaktora simplification of the plant. This reactor represents
te znatno tehnoloπko pojednostavljenje elektrane. a type of a combination of PWR and BWR reactors,
Ovaj reaktor predstavlja svojevrsnu kombinaciju with the main goal of producing low-cost electricity.
PWR i BWR reaktora s glavnim ciljem proizvodnje Thirty-two organizations from 13 countries are
jeftine elektriËne energije. Na njegovom razvoju working on its development.
rade 32 organizacije iz 13 zemalja.
Molten Salt Reactor (MSR)
Reaktor hlaen rastaljenom soli MSR (Molten Salt As the name implies, the coolant for this advanced
Reactor) reactor design is molten salt. Until now, many
Kao πto mu ime govori, hladioc ovog naprednog designs have been presented for this type of
reaktorskog dizajna je rastaljena sol. Do sada je reactor and several prototypes have been built.
predstavljeno viπe dizajna za ovaj tip reaktora, Earlier solutions relied upon nuclear fuel dissolved
a napravljeno je i nekoliko prototipova. Ranija in molten fluoride salt as uranium tetrafluoride.
rjeπenja oslanjala su se na nuklearno gorivo Criticality was reached with the flowing of the

671 Knapp, V., KrejËi, M., Lebegner, J., Prvih pola stoljeÊa...., Energija, god. 55 (2006), br. 6., str. 658 ∑ 689
Knapp, V., KrejËi, M., Lebegner, J., The First Half Century...., Energija, vol. 55 (2006), No. 6, p.p. 658 ∑ 689
otopljeno u rastaljenim solima flora tvoreÊi uranov medium into the graphite core, which also served
tetraflorid. KritiËnost se dosiæe dolaskom medija as the moderator. Some current concepts rely more
u grafitnu jezgru koja ujedno sluæi kao moderator. on fuel dispersed in a graphite matrix, with the
Neki danaπnji koncepti viπe se oslanjaju na gorivo molten salt assuring cooling at a high temperature
disperzirano unutar grafitne matrice s rastaljenom and low pressure.
soli Ëime se osigurava hlaanje pri visokoj tempe-
raturi i niskom tlaku. International Reactor Innovative and Secure (IRIS)
The IRIS is a modulated light-water reactor of me-
Meunarodni inovativan i sigurni reaktor IRIS dium power rating, a minimum of 335 MW, being
(International Reactor Innovative and Secure) developed by Westinghouse together with a large
IRIS je modularni lakovodni reaktor srednje number of international institutions, including the
elektriËne snage (najmanje 335 MW) na Ëijem Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing
razvoju radi Westinghouse zajedno s velikim in Zagreb [9]. The reactor design has marked pro-
brojem meunarodnih ustanova meu kojima liferation resistance and meets the safety criteria
se nalazi i Fakultet elektrotehnike i raËunarstva for Generation IV reactors. The most important im-
iz Zagreba [9]. Dizajn reaktora ima naglaπenu provements are passive safety achieved in a manner
otpornost na proliferaciju i udovoljava naprednim that the chief components are located inside a com-
sigurnosnim kriterijima koji se postavljaju pred mon vessel. In addition, the majority of the safety
reaktore Generacije IV. Najvaænija poboljπanja su systems are based upon the activity of natural
inherentna sigurnost ostvarena na naËin da su sve forces such as gravitation or natural circulation.
glavne komponente smjeπtene unutar zajedniËke
posude i dodatno, veÊina sigurnosnih sustava Gas Cooled Fast Reactor (GFR)
zasniva se na djelovanju prirodnih sila kao πto su The GFR uses fast neutrons in a closed nuclear
gravitacija ili prirodna cirkulacija. fuel cycle to enhance the utilization of the energy
potential of nuclear fuel. Therefore, the percentage
Plinom hlaeni brzi reaktor GFR (Gas Cooled Fast of the fuel cost in the price of electricity generated
Reactor) by this reactor is significantly reduced. The reactor
Plinom hlaeni brzi reaktor koristi brze neutrone u is cooled with helium and has an outlet temperature
zatvorenom nuklearnom gorivnom ciklusu za puno of 850 °C.
efikasnije iskoriπtenje energetskog potencijala nu-
klearnog goriva. Stoga je udio cijene goriva u cijeni Sodium Cooled Fast Reactor (SFR)
elektriËne energije kod ovih reaktora znaËajno The SFR is based upon two existing projects, the
reduciran. Reaktor je hlaen helijem, a izlazna mu Liquid Metal Fast Breeder Reactor (LMFBR) and
je temperatura 850 °C. the Integrated Fast Reactor (IFR).

Brzi reaktori hlaen natrijem SFR (Sodium Cooled The goal of the project is to increase the efficiency
Fast Reactor) of uranium utilization through breeding plutonium
SFR predstavlja nadogradnju dva postojeÊa and allow the transformation of the transuranic
projekta: LMFBR (Brzi reaktor hlaen tekuÊim isotopes that continue to emit ionizing radiation for
metalima) i IFR (Integralni brzi reaktor). centuries, creating storage problems. In the reactor
is an unmoderated core where fast neutron fission
Cilj projekta je poveÊati efikasnost koriπtenja occurs. The excess of neutrons provides for the
urana kroz oplodnju plutonija te omoguÊavanje transuranic isotopes to be transformed into other
transformacije takozvanih transuranskih izotopa isotopes with shorter half-lives or into nuclear fuel.
koji joπ stoljeÊima svojim ionizirajuÊim zraËenjem
optereÊuju lokaciju na kojoj se skladiπte. U The SFR is cooled by liquid sodium and uses a
reaktoru se nalazi nemoderirana jezgra u kojoj se metallic alloy of uranium and plutonium for fuel.
dogaa fisija s brzim neutronima. Viπak neutrona The fuel is contained in steel cladding while the
pruæa moguÊnost da se transuranski izotopi trans- space between the fuel and the cladding is filled
formiraju u druge izotope s kraÊim vremenima with liquid sodium.
poluraspada ili u nuklearno gorivo.

SFR je hlaen tekuÊim natrijem, a za gorivo


koristi metalnu leguru urana i plutonija. Gorivo
je oklopljeno ËeliËnim koπuljicama dok je zazor
izmeu koπuljice i goriva ispunjen tekuÊim na-
trijem.

Knapp, V., KrejËi, M., Lebegner, J., Prvih pola stoljeÊa...., Energija, god. 55 (2006), br. 6., str. 658 ∑ 689
Knapp, V., KrejËi, M., Lebegner, J., The First Half Century...., Energija, vol. 55 (2006), No. 6, p.p. 658 ∑ 689 672
Olovom hlaen brzi reaktor LFR (Lead Cooled Fast Lead Cooled Fast Reactor (LFR)
Reactor) The LFR is characterized by a closed fuel cycle
LFR se odlikuje zatvorenim gorivnim ciklusom s with liquid lead as the coolant. It is suitable for
tekuÊim olovom kao hladiocem. Pogodan je za power plants of various power ratings, from a
elektrane razliËitih snaga, od baterije snage 50 battery of 50 MW to 150 MW, and features a very
MW do 150 MW s vrlo dugim intervalom izmjene long refueling interval, a modular system rated at
goriva, preko modularnih sistema snage 300 MW 300 MW to 400 MW, and large compact blocks of
do 400 MW pa do velikih kompaktnih blokova od 1 200 MW. The fuel is based on fertile uranium
1 200 MW. Gorivo je bazirano na fertilnom uranu and transuranic elements. The reactor is cooled
i transuranskim elementima. Reaktor je hlaen by natural heat transfer with an outlet coolant at a
prirodnom predajom topline vanjskom hladiocu temperature of 550 °C. The high temperatures also
koji se nalazi na temperaturi od 550 °C. Visoke allow the production of hydrogen by thermochemical
temperature takoer omoguÊuju proizvodnju vodika processes. Several of these reactors were used for
termokemijskim procesima. Nekoliko ovih reaktora powering Russian submarines but due to problems
bilo je koriπteno za pogon ruskih podmornica, with the hardening of the coolant, this reactor
no zbog problema sa skruÊivanjem hladioca ovaj design is no longer used for this purpose.
reaktorski dizajn viπe se ne primjenjuje u te svrhe.

Slika 5
Generacija I / Generacija II / Generacija III / KratkoroËni Generacija IV /
Generation I Generation II Generation III razvoj / Generation IV Razvoj nuklearnih
Short-term reaktora
development
Figure 5
The development of
Rani Komercijalni Napredni Generacija
prototipovi nuklearni lakovodni III+ / nuclear reactors
reaktora / reaktori / reaktori / Generation
Early Commercial Advanced III+
reactor nuclear light-wate
prototypes reactors reactors

∑ visoko ekonomiËni /
highly economical
∑ unaprijeena sigurnost /
increased safety
∑ smanjena moguÊnost
proliferacije /
reduced possibility
∑ Shippingport ∑ PWR/WER/ ∑ ABWR ∑ ESBWR of proliferation
∑ Dresden, Fermi I System 80 ∑ System 80+ ∑ PBMR
∑ Magnox ∑ BWR ∑ AP 1000
∑ CANDU ∑ EPR
∑ RBMK

GEN I GEN II GEN III GEN III+ GEN IV

1850. 1960. 1970. 1980. 1990. 2000. 2010. 2020. 2030.

5 EKONOMSKI ASPEKTI 5 ECONOMIC ASPECTS


U poslijeratnom razdoblju nuklearne elektrane After the Second World War, nuclear power plants
razvijale su direktno dræave, ili su njihov razvoj i were developed directly by governments or their
izgradnju snaæno podræavale. development and construction received strong
government support.
Elektroprivrede su u tom razdoblju bile u
direktnom vlasniπtvu dræave ili pod njenom During this period, electrical supply companies
snaænom kontrolom, a træiπte elektriËne energije were under direct state ownership or under their
bilo je monopolistiËko. Planiranje razvoja elektro- powerful control, and the electricity market was
energetskog sustava bilo je centralizirano i monopolistic. The planning of the development
dugoroËno. Projekti izgradnje novih nuklearnih of the electricity system was centralized and long
elektrana bili su izloæeni niskom regulatornom range. The projects for the construction of new
riziku, imali su pristup relativno jeftinom kapitalu, nuclear power plants had low regulatory risk,
a rizik na povrat investicije bio je nizak, s obzirom access to relatively inexpensive capital, and low
da su svi troπkovi prenoπeni na kupce elektriËne risk for investment return, since all the costs
energije. Snaæan gospodarski uzlet nakon rata za were transferred to the electricity consumer. The
sobom je nosio i znaËajno poveÊanje konzuma tremendous economic growth after the war led to a
energije. Te su okolnosti u 1970-tim i 1980-tim significant increase in energy consumption. During
godinama pogodovale znaËajnom rastu nuklearne the 1970s and 1980s, these circumstances favored
industrije. the significant growth of the nuclear industry.

673 Knapp, V., KrejËi, M., Lebegner, J., Prvih pola stoljeÊa...., Energija, god. 55 (2006), br. 6., str. 658 ∑ 689
Knapp, V., KrejËi, M., Lebegner, J., The First Half Century...., Energija, vol. 55 (2006), No. 6, p.p. 658 ∑ 689
Porast instalirane snage reaktora u periodu od The growth in the installed power of reactors during
1965. do 1975. godine rastao je po prosjeËnoj the period from 1965 to 1975 increased at an
godiπnjoj stopi od preko 30 %, dok je u periodu average annual rate of over 30 %, while during the
1965. do 1985. godine prosjeËni godiπnji rast period from 1965 to 1985 the average industrial
industrije bio preko 20 % (slika 6). growth rate was over 20 % (Figure 6).

Slika 6 (N) N = 443


N = 423 (GWe)
Instalirani nuklearni Pinst. = 322 GWe Pinst. = 370 GWe
500 500
kapaciteti krajem
2006. u svijetu [1]. 450 450
Figure 6
400 400
Installed nuclear

Instalirana snaga / Installed power Pinst.


capacities in the
Broj reaktora / Number of reactors

350 350
world at the end of
2006 [1] 300 300

250 250

200 200

150 150

100 100

50 50

0 0
1956. 1961. 1966. 1971. 1976. 1981. 1986. 1991. 1996. 2001. Godina / Year

Broj reaktora / Number of reactors


Instalirana snaga / Installed power

Iako je u sedamdesetim i prvoj polovini osamde- Although the nuclear industry recorded powerful
setih nuklearna industrija biljeæila snaænu ekspan- expansion during the 1970s and first half of the
ziju, mnogi pokazatelji su u mnogome ukazivali 1980s, it was not without growing pains. There were
na djeËje bolesti. Izgradnju su Ëesto obiljeæavala frequent budget overruns and unmet construction
prekoraËenja budæeta i rokova, dok je pogon deadlines. Reactor plants were characterized by
reaktora bio obiljeæen velikim brojem ispada i frequent outages and relatively low plant availability.
relativno niskom raspoloæivosti postrojenja. Uz Moreover, the Three Mile Island accident occurred
to je u SAD-u doπlo do nesreÊe na elektrani Otok in the United States. Although large quantities of
tri milje (TMI). Iako nije ispuπtena veÊa koliËina radioactivity were not released into the environment
radioaktivnosti u okoliπ i niti jedan pojedinac and not a single person was injured, this event had
nije nastradao, taj je dogaaj znaËajno utjecao a powerful negative impact on public perception
na percepciju javnosti o nesigurnosti nukle- regarding the safety of nuclear power plants. From
arnih elektrana. S aspekta nuklearne industrije, the aspect of the nuclear industry, this event
taj je dogaaj ukazao na nekoliko Ëinjenica: demonstrated several facts: the safety measures
zaπtine mjere nuklearnih reaktora od ispuπtanja at nuclear reactors to prevent the discharge of
radioaktivnosti u okoliπ te zaπtite pojedinaca radioactivity into the environment and protect
dobro su odradile svoju namjenu, te su posljedice persons had performed their intended purpose
po ljude i okoliπ praktiËki bile zanemarive. S druge well, and the consequences to persons and the
strane, ekonomske πtete od nuklearne nesreÊe, environment were practically negligible. On the other
prvenstveno za vlasnika postrojenja su znaËajno side, the economic repercussions from the nuclear
veÊe od oËekivanja; ËiπÊenje postrojenja je skup accident, first of all to the owner of the plant, were far
i dugotrajan proces, a izgubljena proizvodnja greater than expected. The cleaning of the plant is an
golema. To je natjeralo nuklearnu industriju da expensive and long process, and production losses
uloæi dodatne napore u poboljπanje sigurnosti nu- are enormous. This forced the nuclear industry to
klearnih elektrana, kako radi percepcije javnosti, invest additional efforts into improving the safety of
tako i zbog ekonomskih razloga. nuclear power plants, due to both public perceptions
and economic considerations.
VeÊ spomenuta katastrofa u »ernobilju 1986.
godine, iako na sasvim drugom konceptu reaktora The previously mentioned catastrophe in Chernobyl
od zapadnih, snaæno je uzdrmala nuklearnu in 1986, although based on a reactor with a
industriju. Naftne krize iz sedamdesetih i ranih completely different concept than those in the West,
osamdesetih bile su proπlost i cijena nafte powerfully shook the nuclear industry. The oil crisis
ponovno je bila niska. from the 1970s and early 1980s had passed and the
price of oil was once again low.

Knapp, V., KrejËi, M., Lebegner, J., Prvih pola stoljeÊa...., Energija, god. 55 (2006), br. 6., str. 658 ∑ 689
Knapp, V., KrejËi, M., Lebegner, J., The First Half Century...., Energija, vol. 55 (2006), No. 6, p.p. 658 ∑ 689 674
Kao posljedica svega navedenog, krajem 1980- tih As a consequence of everything that has been cited,
godina znaËajno pada broj novih narudæbi, a nuk- in the late 1980s there was a significant decrease
learna industrija biljeæi stagnaciju (slika 7). Nakon in the number of new orders, and the nuclear
dva desetljeÊa intenzivog rasta, udio nuklearne industry recorded stagnation (Figure 7). After two
energije poËeo se stabilizirati na 16 % do 17 % u decades of intense growth, the share of nuclear
globalnoj proizvodnji elektriËne energije. energy began to stabilize at 16 − 17 % of global
electricity production.

Slika 7
(N) (MWc)
Broj pokrenutih novih
40 35 000
izgradnji, brojËano i po snazi
35
reaktora [1].
30 000
Figure 7
Broj novih izgradnji / Number of new

30 Newly constructed reactors,

Snaga reaktora / Reactor power


25 000 according to numbers and
projected power ratings [1]
construsted reactors

25
20 000
20

15 000
15

10 000
10

5 5 000

0 0
.

.
Godina / Year
55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

00

05
19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

20

20
Nova izgradnja / New construction Projektirana snaga / Planned power

Nuklearna industrija okrenula se poboljπanjima The nuclear industry turned to improving the
performansi postojeÊih reaktora, prije svega po- performance of existing reactors, first of all to
veÊanju njihove raspoloæivosti i pouzdanosti, te increasing their availability, reliability and power
poveÊanju snage postojeÊih reaktora. Uz to su ratings. Significant efforts were also invested in
ulagani znaËajni napori u sniæavanje troπkova reducing plant costs.
pogona.
The increase in the production of electricity in
Porast proizvodnje elektriËne energije u nuklearnim nuclear power plants since the 1990s is only to
elektranama od devedesetih na dalje, tek je u a lesser extent a consequence of placing new
manjoj mjeri posljedica puπtanja u pogon novih plants into operation, and to a greater extent a
reaktora, a veÊim dijelom je posljedica poveÊanja consequence of increasing the availability of the
raspoloæivosti postojeÊih elektrana (slike 8 i 9). existing plants (Figures 8 and 9). During the
U periodu od 1990. do 2004. godine godiπnja period from 1990 to 2004, the annual production
proizvodnja elektriËne energije iz nuklearnih of electricity from nuclear power plants rose from
elektrana porasla je s 1 901 TWh na 2 619 TWh, 1 901 TWh to 2 619 TWh, i.e. 37 %, while there
tj 37 %, dok je izgraenih novih kapaciteta bilo were only 6,7 % more new plants constructed.
tek 6,7 % viπe.

675 Knapp, V., KrejËi, M., Lebegner, J., Prvih pola stoljeÊa...., Energija, god. 55 (2006), br. 6., str. 658 ∑ 689
Knapp, V., KrejËi, M., Lebegner, J., The First Half Century...., Energija, vol. 55 (2006), No. 6, p.p. 658 ∑ 689
Slika 8
Uzrok poveÊanja
proizvodnje nuklearnih
elektrana u svijetu od nove elektrane /
1990. ∑ 2004. [10] new electrical power plants
35 %
Figure 8
Factors increasing
production from
nuclear power plants in
the world, poveÊanje raspoloæivosti /
incrased availability
1990 ∑ 2004 [10] 58 %

poveÊanje snage /
incrased power
7%

Slika 9
Faktor raspoloæivosti
ameriËkih nuklearnih
(%)
elektrana [6]
Figure 9 100
Faktor raspoloæivosti / Availability factor

90,1
The availability factor 90
of American nuclear
80
power plants [6]
70
53,5
60

50

40

30

20

10

1973. 1978. 1983. 1988. 1993. 1998. 2003. Godina / Year

PoveÊanje raspoloæivosti pogona omoguÊilo je Increased plant availability permitted significantly


znaËajno veÊu proizvodnju iz postojeÊih elektrana. greater production from existing power plants.
U kombinaciji sa sustavnim sniæavanjem troπkova Together with the systematic reduction in plant
pogona i odræavanja, nuklearna industrija je unatoË costs and maintenance, despite the considerable
snaænom porastu cijene urana uspjela znaËaj- increase in the price of uranium, the nuclear
no sniziti troπkove proizvodnje kWh elektriËne industry succeeded in significantly lowering the
energije (slika 10). production costs of a kWh of electrical energy
(Figure 10).

Knapp, V., KrejËi, M., Lebegner, J., Prvih pola stoljeÊa...., Energija, god. 55 (2006), br. 6., str. 658 ∑ 689
Knapp, V., KrejËi, M., Lebegner, J., The First Half Century...., Energija, vol. 55 (2006), No. 6, p.p. 658 ∑ 689 676
Slika 10
Troπkovi proizvodnje
nuklearnog kWh u SAD-u
(USDc/kWh) [6]
2,46
Figure 10
3,0
1,72
Production costs for
a nuclear kWh in the
2,5
United States [6]
Troπkovi proizvodnje /

2,0
Production costs

1,5

1,0

0,5

0
1995. 1996. 1997. 1998. 1999. 2000. 2001. 2002. 2003. 2004. 2005.

Godina / Year

U devedesetima je energetika poËela prolaziti kroz In the 1990s, energetics began to experience several
neke fundamentalne promjene. Glavni razlozi su: fundamental changes. The main reasons were the
liberalizacija træiπta, privatizacija elektroprivrednih liberalization of the markets, the privatization of
kompanija, problemi sigurnosti opskrbe te efekt electric companies, problems in the dependability
staklenika. of the supply and the greenhouse effect.

Konsolidacija same nuklearne industrije, kao i The consolidation of the nuclear industry itself, as
navedeni eksterni faktori ponovo su uËinili nukle- well as the previously mentioned external factors,
arnu industriju atraktivnom investitorima i kori- once again made the nuclear industry attractive to
snicima elektriËne energije. investors and electricity consumers.

Ekonomske prednosti nuklearne industrije The economic advantages of the nuclear industry
nedvojbene su kod veÊ izgraenih reaktora. VeÊ are undoubtedly greater in the case of reactors that
izgraeni reaktori, naroËito oni veÊ otplaÊeni, have already been built. Such reactors, especially
tj. oni koji imaju samo operativne troπkove su those which have been paid for, i.e. those which
priliËno profitabilni i danas proizvode gotovo have only operative costs, are fairly profitable
najjeftiniju struju na træiπtu. Kod novih reaktora and produce what is nearly the least expensive
je sitacija neπto drugaËija, a s obzirom na to da electricity on the market today. With new reactors,
u Zapadnoj Europi veÊ gotovo 20 godina nije the situation is somewhat different, taking into
zapoËela gradnja niti jednog novog reaktora, account that for the past 20 years construction
nalaze studija teπko je verificirati. Smjer u kojem has not begun on single new reactor in Europe,
ide razvoj nuklearne industrije ide k sve veÊim so that study findings are difficult to verify. The
jedinicama kako bi se u πto veÊoj mjeri ostvarile direction in which the development of the nuclear
koristi od ekonomije veliËine. Taj smjer meutim industry is going is toward increasingly larger units,
nosi i mnoge nedostatke: velik investicijski rizik, in order to achieve the maximum benefits from
veliki i komplicirani projekti, relativno mali broj the economy of size. However, this direction also
novoizgraenih reaktora te mala moguÊnost za includes many shortcomings: high investment risk,
standardizaciju, spora krivulja uËenja i dugo vrije- large and complicated projects, the relatively small
me izgradnje. U tablici 1 predstavljeni su rezultati number of newly built reactors, little possibility
nekolicine recentnijih studija o troπkovima proiz- for standardization, the slow learning curve and
vodnje elektriËne energije iz nuklearnih elektrana. long construction time. In Table 1, the results of
Rezultati su priliËno razliËiti zbog razliËitosti several recent studies on the costs of producing
ulaznih pretpostavki, πto takoer dobro oslikava energy from nuclear power plants are presented.
rizike koje nosi nuklearni projekt. The results are fairly diverse due to the diversity of
the input parameters, and also illustrate the risks of
nuclear projects.

677 Knapp, V., KrejËi, M., Lebegner, J., Prvih pola stoljeÊa...., Energija, god. 55 (2006), br. 6., str. 658 ∑ 689
Knapp, V., KrejËi, M., Lebegner, J., The First Half Century...., Energija, vol. 55 (2006), No. 6, p.p. 658 ∑ 689
Tablica 1 − Usporedba procijenjenih troπkova nuklearne elektriËne energije [11]
Table 1 − Comparison of the estimated costs of nuclear electricity [11]

IzdavaË / Publisher Naziv Studije / Study Title Izdana / Troπak proizvodnje /


Published Production Costs
(EUR/MWh)

Lappeenranta University of Technology Finnish 5th Reactor Economic Analysis 2002. 24

UK Performance and Innovation Unit The Economics of Nuclear Power 2002. 34 − 56

Massachusetts Institute of Technology The Future of Nuclear Power 2003. 55 − 65

The Royal Academy of Engineers The Costs of Generating Electricity 2004. 34

University of Chicago The Economic Future of Nuclear Power 2004. 43 − 58

Canadian Energy Research Institute Levelised Unit Electricity Cost Comparison of Alternative 2004. 49
Technologies for Base load Generation in Ontario

IEA/NEA Projected Costs of Generating Electricity: 2005 Update 2005. 18 − 56

Konkurentnost nuklearnih elektrana u odnosu na The competitiveness of nuclear power plants in


elektrane na fosilna goriva razliËita je u pojedinim comparison to fossil fuel power plants is different
zemljama, te naËelne ocjene nisu jednoznaËne. U in individual countries, and the principle assess-
komparaciji alternativa potrebno je takoer imati ments are not unambiguous. In comparison to
na umu stalan i u posljednje vrijeme izraæen trend alternatives, it is also necessary to bear in mind the
porasta cijena fosilnih goriva, te tendenciju da recent marked trend of rising fossil fuel prices and
se kWh iz elektrana na fosilna goriva optereti i the tendency for an extra charge to be levied on
naknadom za ispuπtanje stakleniËkih plinova. Iako kWh from fossil fuel power plants for greenhouse
su dugoroËna predvianja nezahvalna, s danaπnjim gas emissions. Although long-term projections are
trendovima nuklearne elektrane su dugoroËno vrlo unrewarding, with the current trends nuclear power
atraktivan izbor. plants are a very attractive long-term choice.

Istodobno treba imati na umu da Êe neke od At the same time, it is necessary to bear in mind
promjena koje se odvijaju u energetici postaviti that some of the changes that are occurring in
i nove izazove pred nuklearnu industriju. Priva- energetics will also pose new challenges to the
tizacija i liberalizacija Êe prije svega pred inves- nuclear industry. Privatization and liberalization
titore postaviti znaËajno veÊe rizike na povrat will pose a significantly greater risk to investors in
investicije. Uz napore koje ulaæe industrija da terms of returns on their investments. Besides the
nuklearne elektrane uËini πto atraktivnijom efforts by industry to make nuclear power plants
opcijom ulagaËima, bez sumnje Êe i dræave morati an attractive option to investors, governments
prilagoditi pristup, prije svega u smislu licen- will undoubtedly have to adapt their approach,
ciranja i regulatorne nesigurnosti. particularly regarding the questions of licensing
and regulatory uncertainties.

Knapp, V., KrejËi, M., Lebegner, J., Prvih pola stoljeÊa...., Energija, god. 55 (2006), br. 6., str. 658 ∑ 689
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6 OTPAD 6 WASTES
TipiËna nuklearna elektrana s tlakovodnim reak- A typical nuclear power plant with a pressurized
torom elektriËne snage 1 000 MW koja u jednoj water reactor and a power rating of 1 000 MW
godini proizvede oko 7,5 TWh elektriËne energije, that produces approximately 7.5 TWh of electricity
pri tome proizvede 200 ∑ 350 m3 nisko i srednje- annually also produces 200 ∑ 350 m3 of low-level
radioaktivnog otpada, oko 25 tona, odnosno oko and medium-level radioactive wastes, approximately
20 m3 visokoradioaktivnog otpada te oko 25 tona 25 tons or 20 m3 of high-level radioactive wastes,
istroπenog goriva. Nisko i srednjeradioaktivni otpad and approximately 25 tons of spent fuel. Low-level
Ëine zaπtitna odjeÊa radnika, alati, krpe, istroπeni and medium-level radioactive waste consists of
filteri, istroπene ionske smole i sliËno. protective workers’ clothing, tools, rags, spent
filters, spent ionic resins etc.
Doktrina zbrinjavanja otpada u nuklearnoj industriji
je koncentrirati i izolirati, za razliku od doktrine, The doctrine for the disposal of wastes in the nuclear
koja se primjenjuje u npr. termoelektranama na industry is concentrate and isolate, unlike the doctrine
fosilna goriva rasprπi i razrijedi. applied, for example, to fossil fuel thermoelectric
power plants, which is disperse and dilute.
Odlagaliπta radioaktivnog otpada se dizajniraju
tako da se raznim inæinjerskim strukturama sprje- Repositories for radioactive wastes are designed
Ëava kontakt radioaktivnih materijala i okoline with various engineering structures in order to
za vrijeme dok mogu predstavljati opasnost za prevent contact between radioactive materials and
okolinu. the environment for the period of time that they can
pose a hazard to the environment.
Danas su u svijetu poznate i u primjeni mnoge
metode obrade i zbrinjavanja i odlaganja nisko i Today, many methods are known and applied in the
srednjeradioaktivnog otpada, dok su metode za world for processing and disposing of low-level and
trajno i konaËno zbrinjavanje visokoradioaktivnog medium-level radioactive wastes, while methods
otpada joπ uvijek u fazi ispitivanja (Yucca for the permanent and final disposal of high-level
Mountain u SAD i ONKALO u Finskoj). radioactive wastes are still in the investigative
phase (Yucca Mountain in the United States and
ONKALO in Finland).
6.1 Zbrinjavanje nisko i srednjeradioaktivnog otpada
Nisko i srednjeradioaktivni otpad uobiËajeno
se zbrinjavaju u plitkim (povrπinskim ili pripo- 6.1 The Disposal of Low-Level and Medium-Level
vrπinskim) ili dubokim odlagaliπtima. U tu svrhu Radioactive Wastes
se konstruiraju viπestruke inæenjerske barijere koje Low-level and medium-level radioactive wastes are
Êe osigurati viπegodiπnju izoliranost skladiπta radi usually disposed of in shallow (surface or near surface)
onemoguÊavanja kontakta radioaktivnih nuklida or deep repositories. For this purpose, multiple
sa æivotnom sredinom, posebice podzemnim vo- engineering barriers are constructed that will assure
dama. many years of isolation, in order to prevent contact
between radioactive nuclides and the environment,
UobiËajena tehnologija podrazumijeva ulaganje particularly with underground waters.
baËava s otpadom u armiranobetonske posude
te ispunjavanje meuprostora betonom ili sliËnim The customary technology means the storage of barrels
materijalom. Tako dobiveni blokovi odlaæu se u containing wastes in reinforced concrete vessels and
betonirane tunele obloæene nepropusnom glinom. filling the spaces with concrete or a similar material.
Such blocks are then stored in concrete repository
Kako je sprjeËavanje kontakta radionuklida s tunnels that are covered with impermeable clay.
podzemnim i povrπinskim vodama jedan od
najvaænijih zadataka, Ëesto se i Ëitavo skladiπte Since the prevention of contact between radionuclides
oblaæe slojem vodonepropusnog materijala te se and underground and surfaces waters is one of the
takoer ugrauje i sustav kontrole drenaæe vode most important tasks, the entire repository is often
koja bi eventualno prodrla u odlagaliπte. coated with a layer of water-impermeable material and
a system of controlled drainage water is installed that
Duboko odlaganje temelji se na identiËnim could eventually penetrate into the repository.
osnovnim principima izolacije od okoline kao i
plitko. Takva se odlagaliπta grade u stabilnim Deep repositories are constructed according the
geoloπkim formacijama na dubinama od viπe identical basic principles of isolation from the envi-
desetaka do viπe stotina metara ispod povrπine ronment as are shallow repositories. Such repositories
are built in stable geological formations at depths of

679 Knapp, V., KrejËi, M., Lebegner, J., Prvih pola stoljeÊa...., Energija, god. 55 (2006), br. 6., str. 658 ∑ 689
Knapp, V., KrejËi, M., Lebegner, J., The First Half Century...., Energija, vol. 55 (2006), No. 6, p.p. 658 ∑ 689
zemlje. Stabilne geoloπke formacije i duboko tens to hundreds of meters below the surface of the
zakapanje pruæaju dodatnu sigurnost da Êe earth. Stable geological formations and deep burial
radionuklidi ostati izolirani od okoline dok god za provide additional assurance that the radionuclides
nju predstavljaju opasnost. will remain isolated from the environment as long as
they represent a hazard.
Nisko i srednjeradioaktivni otpad sadræi radio-
izotope koji gube radiotoksiËnost u vremenskom Low-level and medium-level wastes contain radioiso-
periodu od nekoliko godina pa do najviπe nekoliko topes that lose their radiotoxicity within a period of
stotina godina. Osiguravanje izolacije u tom from several years to a maximum of several hundred
relativno kratkom vremenu ne predstavlja problem, years. The problem of insuring their isolation for this
te se smatra da danaπnja odlagaliπta tog otpada relatively short time is considered to have been suc-
uspjeπno rjeπavaju taj problem. Mnoge dræave cessfully solved by today’s repositories. Many coun-
imaju odlagaliπta za srednje i nisko radioaktivni tries have repositories for low-level and medium-level
otpad koja normalno rade veÊ dulji niz godina. radioactive wastes that have operated normally for
many years.

6.2 Zbrinjavanje istroπenog goriva


Za razliku od nisko i srednjeradioaktivnog otpada, 6.2 The Disposal of Spent Fuel
istroπeno gorivo zadræava svoju radiotoksiËnost i Unlike low-level and medium-level radioactive
viπe od 100 000 godina, te trajno zbrinjavanje wastes, spent fuel retains its radiotoxicity for over
tog otpada predstavlja znaËajno veÊi izazov. 100 000 years, and the permanent disposal of this
Istroπeno gorivo po izlasku iz reaktora sadræi waste represents a considerably greater challenge.
samo oko 3 % fisijskih produkata, tj. pravog Upon leaving the reactor, spent fuel contains only
otpada. Reprocesiranjem se fisijski produkti 3 % fission products, i.e. genuine waste. Through
izdvajaju i nakon toga ustakljuju te tako odlaæu reprocessing, the fission products are separated
kao visokokoncentrirani visokoradioaktivni otpad. and afterward placed in glass and disposed of as
Alternativa tome je direktno odlaganje, tj. gorivi highly concentrated high-level radioactive waste.
elementi se odlaæu u posebno konstruirane An alternative to this is direct disposal, i.e. the fuel
spremnike i takvi odlaæu u duboka geoloπka elements are placed in specially constructed vessels
odlagaliπta. and then placed in deep geological repositories.

Prednost reprocesiranja leæi u tom πto se znaËajno The advantages of reprocessing lie in the significant
smanjuje volumen otpada za odlaganje, te u tome reduction in the volume of waste for disposal and
πto se najveÊi dio istroπenog goriva moæe ponovno that most of the spent fuel can be reused in the fuel
koristiti u gorivom ciklusu nuklearnih reaktora. cycle of nuclear reactors. The shortcomings are in
Nedostatci su u danas visokoj cijeni procesa te the high cost of the process and the danger of the
u opasnosti od proliferacije plutonija izdvojenog proliferation of plutonium separated by reprocessing.
reprocesiranjem. Tablica 2 prikazuje prihvaÊene Table 2 shows the accepted strategies in the regimes
strategije u raznim dræavama u svijetu. of various countries throughout the world.

Knapp, V., KrejËi, M., Lebegner, J., Prvih pola stoljeÊa...., Energija, god. 55 (2006), br. 6., str. 658 ∑ 689
Knapp, V., KrejËi, M., Lebegner, J., The First Half Century...., Energija, vol. 55 (2006), No. 6, p.p. 658 ∑ 689 680
Tablica 2 − Pregled strategija postupanja s istroπenim gorivom [6]
Table 2 − Strategies for dealing with spent nuclear fuel [6]

Dræava / Country Direktno odlaganje / Reprocesiranje /


Direct disposal Reprocessing

Belgija / Belgium 9 9
Kanada / Canada

Kina / China 9 9
Finska / Finland

Francuska / France 9
NjemaËka / Germany 9
Indija / India 9
Japan / Japan 9
Rusija / Russia 9 9
Juæna Koreja / South Korea 9
©panjolska / Spain 9
©vedska / Sweden

©vicarska / Switzerland 9
Velika Britanija / Great Britain 9 9
SAD / United States

S obzirom da joπ uvijek niti jedno trajno Since not a single permanent repository for high-
odlagaliπte visokoradioaktivnog otpada nije u level radioactive waste is in operation, high-level
pogonu, visokoradioaktivni otpad se trenutno radioactive waste is currently stored in temporary
skladiπti u privremenim odlagaliπtima. Primjenjuju repositories. The technologies of wet and dry storage
se tehnologije mokrog i suhog skaldiπtenja. Mokro are used. Wet storage means placing the spent fuel
skaldiπtenje se odvija u bazenima za istroπeno in pools within the grounds of the nuclear power
gorivo u sklopu nuklearnih elektrana ili u za tu plants or specially constructed central objects for
svrhu posebno izgraenim centralnim objektima, this purpose, while dry storage involves placing the
dok je suho odlaganje obavlja u dizajniranim spent fuel in specially designed dry storage casks.
suhim spremnicima casks.
In the storage of high-level radioactive waste, in
Pri skladiπtenju visokoradioaktivnog otpada, addition to the isolation of the radionuclides from the
osim izolacije radionuklida od okoline potrebno environment, it is necessary to provide constant and
je osigurati stalno i efikasno hlaenje istroπenog efficient cooling of the spent fuel, which emits heat
goriva koje emitira toplinu joπ dosta godina po for many years after being removed from the reactor.
vaenju iz reaktora.
It is not possible to determine the costs for the
Troπkove zbrinjavanja otpada nije moguÊe odrediti disposal of wastes with complete certainty because
s potpunom sigurnoπÊu s obzirom da joπ ne there is no concrete experience with the permanent
postoje konkretna iskustva s trajnim odlaganjem storage of high-level radioactive wastes, but in the
visokoradioaktivnog otpada, ali se u veÊini analiza majority of analyses and studies it is estimated
i studija procjenjuje da troπkovi zbrinjavanja that the costs of waste disposal, including the
otpada, ukljuËujuÊi razgradnju nuklearne ele- decommissioning of nuclear power plants, comprise
ktrane, sudjeluju u ukupnoj cijeni elektriËne ener- approximately 10 % of the total price of electricity
gije iz nuklearnih elektrana s oko 10 %. from nuclear power plants.

U prijaπnjim desetljeÊima je pitanje trajnog In past decades, the question of the permanent
rjeπavanja pitanja visokoradioativnog otpada bilo solution to the problem of high-level radioactive
zanemarivano, te odgaano za buduÊnost. Danas waste received little attention and was postponed for
sve viπe dræava uvia da je to pitanje nuæno rijeπiti the future. Today, an increasing number of countries
πto prije kako bi se omoguÊilo i opravdalo daljnje realize that it is necessary to resolve this question as
koriπtenje nuklearne energije. soon as possible in order to facilitate and justify the
continued use of nuclear energy.

681 Knapp, V., KrejËi, M., Lebegner, J., Prvih pola stoljeÊa...., Energija, god. 55 (2006), br. 6., str. 658 ∑ 689
Knapp, V., KrejËi, M., Lebegner, J., The First Half Century...., Energija, vol. 55 (2006), No. 6, p.p. 658 ∑ 689
7 SIGURNOST 7 SAFETY
Primarna paænja javnosti i investitora usmjerena The primary attention of the public and investors is
je na rizik od udesa na nuklearnom reaktoru focused on the risk from an accident at a nuclear
s oslobaanjem radioaktivnosti u okoliπ. Zbog reactor with the release of radioactivity into the
specifiËnog rizika sigurnost je od poËetaka bila environment. Due to this specific risk, safety was
odluËujuÊi kriterij kod izgradnje nuklearnih elek- the deciding criterion from the beginning in the
trana, rezultirajuÊi u konzervativnim tehniËkim i construction of nuclear power plants, resulting in a
termodinamiËkim parametrima goriva i rashladnog conservative technique and thermodynamic param-
sustava. Zbog niske cijene urana uËinak na eters for fuel and the cooling system. Due to the low
ekonomiju bio je malen, ali je konzervativnost u price of uranium, the impact on the economy was
projektiranju imala nepovoljan uËinak na inves- slight. Nevertheless, conservatism in designing had
ticijske troπkove. an unfavorable impact on investment costs.

Opseæna probabilistiËka studija nuklearne sigur- An exhaustive probability study on nuclear safety,
nosti WASH-1400 [12] objavljena 1974. godine WASH-1400 [12], published in the year 1974,
omoguÊila je uoËavanje komponenata koje u veÊoj made it possible to identify the components that
mjeri doprinose riziku i time racionalniju primjenu largely contribute to the risk and apply conservative
kozervativnog projektiranja. VeliËina koja se koristi design practices rationally. The value that is used
za kvantitativno izraæavanje sigurnosti reaktora for the quantitative expression of the safety of a
je vjerojatnost talenja reaktorske jezgre VTJ ili reactor is the Core Melting Probability (CMP). Such
CMP (Core Melting Probability). Takav dogaaj an event begins with an initial equipment problem
poËinje s nekim inicijalnim kvarom, razvija se and develops with the assumption of a sequence of
pretpostavkom slijeda drugih kvarova koji mogu other problems which can ultimately lead to loss of
konaËno dovesti do izostanka hlaenja jezgre. core cooling. Using the semi-empirical probabilistic
Semi-empiriËkom probabilistiËkom metodom method, the contributions of all the initiating events
raËunaju se doprinosi svih inicirajuÊih dogaaja are computed, the sum of which yields the total
da bi njihov zbroj dao ukupnu vjerojatnost taljenja value of the Core Melting Probability of a reactor.
jezgre reaktora. Analizom uËestalosti inicirajuÊih Thorough analysis of the frequency of initiated
kvarova za razdoblje od 1969. do 1974. godine equipment problems for the period from 1969 to
doπlo se do godiπnje vjerojatnosti taljenja jezgre 1974 yielded annual Core Melting Probabilities of
od 10 ∑4 do 10 ∑3, bliæe viπoj vrijednosti [13]. Jedno from 10 ∑4 to 10 ∑3, closer to the higher value [13].
topljenje na reaktoru elektrane Otok Tri Milje ( bez One core melting in a reactor at Three Mile Island
»ernobilja kao reaktora irelevantnog za zapadnu (not counting Chernobyl because this reactor is
reaktorsku tehnologiju) u 10 000 reaktor-godina irrelevant for Western reactor technology) out of
pogona do 2005. godine potvruje procjenu. 10 000 cumulative reactor years up to the year
2005 confirms this estimate.
Brojna poboljπanja sigurnosti na lakovodnim
reaktorima PWR i BWR tipa u pogonu, Numerous security improvements on light-water
primijenjena nakon udesa na elektrani Otok Tri reactors of the PWR and BWR types in operation,
Milje smanjila su vjerojatnosti taljenja jezgre za 6 which were applied after the accident at Three Mile
odnosno 8 puta [14]. Analiza inicirajuÊih dogaaja Island, have reduced Core Melting Probability by 6
u razdoblju od 1980. do 1982. godine dala je or 8 times [14]. Analysis of the initiating events
vjerojatnost taljenja jezgre oko 1,5 x 10∑4 i zatim during the period from 1980 to 1982 yielded a
10∑4 za sredinu 80-tih godina. No, veÊ projekti CMP of approximately 1,5 x 10∑4 and then 10∑4
novih reaktora izvedeni u 80-tim godinama mogli for the mid 1980s. However, the projects for new
su ugraditi rezultate sigurnosnih studija i analiza reactors constructed during the 1980s were already
i postiÊi veliko smanjenje vjerojatnosti taljenja able to incorporate the results of the safety studies
jezgre. and analyses, and achieved even greater reduction
of the CMP.
Tako je izraËunata vjerojatnost taljenja jezrge
reaktora Sizewell B, koji je u pogonu od 1995. Thus, the calculated Core Melting Probability of
godine, smanjena na 1,1 x 10∑6. SliËne, gotovo sto the Sizewell B reactor, which has been in op-
puta manje vrijednosti nego u 80-tim godinama eration since 1995, was reduced to 1,1 x 10∑6.
imaju i drugi novi projekti kao ameriËki AP600 Similarly, other new projects such as the American
ili finski PWR reaktor Olkiluoto 3 u gradnji. AP 600 and the Finnish PWR Olkiluoto 3 under
Zaπtitna zgrada oko reaktora (bez koje je bio construction have nearly one hundred times lower
»ernobiljski reaktor) smanjuje vjerojatnost πirenja probabilities than those built during the 1980s.
radioaktivnosti u okoliπ na oko 3 x 10∑9, pa i manje. A protective building around a reactor (which the

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S tisuÊu reaktora u pogonu jedno talenje jezgre Chernobyl reactor lacked) reduces the probability of
moglo bi se oËekivati u tisuÊu godina, a kada bi spreading radioactivity into the environment to ap-
se dogodilo, vjerojatnost πirenja radioaktivnosti u proximately a value of 3 x 10∑9, or even lower. With
okoliπ bila bi manja od jedan posto zahvaljujuÊi a thousand reactors in operation, one core melting
zaπtitnoj zgradi. To je izuzetan stupanj sigurnosti can be anticipated in a thousand years, and when
prihvatljiv i za najguπÊe naseljena podruËja. it would occur, the probability of the spread of ra-
dioactivity into the environment would be less than
Rad na unaprjeenju nuklearne sigurnosti svejedno one percent, owing to the protective building. This
se i dalje nastavlja u okvirima medjunarodnih exceptional degree of safety is even acceptable for
projekata INPRO, reaktora Generacije IV. i drugim, the most densely populated areas.
ali prioritet nije daljnje smanjenje vjerojatnosti
taljenja jezgre. Smanjena vjerojatnost u veÊoj mjeri Nonetheless, work on improving nuclear safety con-
Êe se ostvariti inherentnim fizikalnim karakte- tinues within the framework of international proj-
ristikama i zakonitostima, a manje viπestrukoπÊu ects such as the International Project on Innovative
sigurnosnih sustava, πto vodi u visoke investicijske Nuclear Reactors and Fuel Cycles, INPRO,
troπkove. Generation IV reactors etc. However, the priority is
not further reduction in CMP. Lower probability will
be achieved to a greater extent through the inherent
physical characteristics and laws, and to a lesser
8 PROLIFERACIJA extent through multiple safety systems, which lead
to high investment costs.
Za razliku od tehniËkih i ekonomskih pitanja koja
se postavljaju kad se raspravlja o buduÊnosti nu-
klearne energetike i koja se rjeπavaju istraæivanjem
i razvojem, problem nuklearne proliferacije, tj. 8 PROLIFERATION
πirenja nuklearnog oruæja primarno je politiËki i
treba biti razrijeπen politiËkim metodama. No, Unlike technical and economic questions that
to ne umanjuje utjecaj na buduÊnost nuklearne are posed when the future of nuclear energy
energije. Nije sporno da se tehnologija za miro- is discussed and are solved by research and
ljubivo koriπtenje nuklearne energije moæe upo- development, the problem of nuclear proliferation,
trijebiti za dobivanje nuklearnog eksploziva, iako i.e. the spread of nuclear weapons, is primarily
poËetne i priznate nuklearne sile SAD, SSSR, political and should be solved by political methods.
Velika Britanija, Francuska i Kina nisu iπle tim However, this does not diminish the impact on the
putem, jer je prva primjena nuklearne energije bila future of nuclear energy. It is indisputable that the
vojna. U Meunarodnoj studiji gorivnih ciklusa technology for the peaceful use of nuclear energy
(International Fuel Cycle Evaluation, INFCE, can be used for obtaining a nuclear explosive,
1978 ∑1980) prerada goriva i obogaÊenje urana although the original and recognized nuclear
izdvojene su kao operacije ciklusa goriva osjetljive powers, i.e. the United States, Soviet Union, Great
s obzirom na proliferaciju. Britain, France and China, did not take this path,
because the first applications of nuclear energy
Prije 30 godina ameriËki predsjednik Jimmy were military. In the International Fuel Cycle
Carter zabranio je preradu istroπenog goriva u Evaluation, INFCE, 1978 ∑ 1980, the processing of
SAD, ali ta tehniËka mjera zamiπljena da sprijeËi fuel and enrichment of uranium were singled out as
proliferaciju izdvajanjem plutonija nije imala proliferation sensitive fuel cycles operations.
odziva u zemljama manje bogatima uranom
od SAD. Osim pet nominalnih nuklearnih sila, Thirty years ago, the American president Jimmy Carter
medju kojima je Ruska Federacija u tom smislu prohibited the processing of spent nuclear fuel in the
sljednik SSSR-a, joπ dvanaest zemalja posjeduje United States. However, this technical measure,
instalacije za obogaÊenje ili preradu goriva conceived to prevent nuclear proliferation from
(Argentina, Belgija, Brazil, Indija, Italija, Izrael, the separation of plutonium, was not implemented
Japan, Juæna Afrika, Nizozemska, NjemaËka, in countries less rich in uranium than the United
Pakistan, Sjeverna Koreja). »etiri od njih danas States. Except for the five nominal nuclear powers,
su prepoznate kao zemlje u posjedu nuklearnog among whom the Russian Federation is in this sense
oruæja. U jednom periodu to je vrijedilo i za Juænu the heir to the former Soviet Union, another twelve
Afriku. IraËki pokuπaj proizvodnje plutonija zavrπio countries possess installations for the enrichment
je 1981. godine kada su izraelske zraËne snage or processing of nuclear fuel (Argentina, Belgium,
uniπtile iraËki reaktor Osiraq. Ozbiljna zabrinutost Brazil, India, Italy, Israel, Japan, South Africa, the
izazvana je gradnjom instalacija za obogaÊenje Netherlands, Germany, Pakistan and North Korea).
Four of them are already recognized as countries that

683 Knapp, V., KrejËi, M., Lebegner, J., Prvih pola stoljeÊa...., Energija, god. 55 (2006), br. 6., str. 658 ∑ 689
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urana u Iranu, bez obzira na deklaracije da se radi possess nuclear weapons. At one period, this also
samo o energetskom programu. applied to South Africa. Iraqi attempts to produce
plutonium ended in 1981, when Israeli aerial forces
Ako se promatra buduÊnost u kojoj bi nuklearna destroyed the Iraqi reactor Osiraq. The construction
energija dala bitan doprinos zamjeni fosilnih of installations for the enrichment of uranium in Iran
goriva u svim sektorima potroπnje, onda to znaËi has aroused serious concern, despite a declaration
viπestruko veÊi broj reaktora, s nizom novih that this merely involves the energy program.
nuklearnih zemalja. NastavljajuÊi s praksom
nacionalnih instalacija za preradu goriva i oboga- If a future is considered in which nuclear energy
Êenjem urana to znaËi i poveÊanu opasnost would provide a significant contribution to the
nuklearne proliferacije, kao i ilegalnog prometa replacement of fossil fuels in all sectors of
nuklearnim materijalima. consumption, this would mean many times more
reactors and a series of new nuclear countries.
Pitanje dugoroËne buduÊnosti nuklearne energije Continuing with the practice of national installations
moglo bi se formulirati kao pitanje moæe li se for the processing of spent nuclear fuel and uranium
gradnja nacionalnih instalacija za obogaÊenje enrichment also signifies an increased threat of
urana i preradu istroπenog goriva zamjeniti rjeπe- nuclear proliferation, as well as the illegal traffic of
njem otpornijim na proliferaciju, nekim oblikom nuclear materials.
meunarodnog servisa za opskrbu nuklearnim
gorivom. Premda se u danaπnjoj meunarodnoj The question about the long-term future of nuclear
situaciji s otvorenim konfliktima na Bliskom energy could be formulated as the question of
Istoku, Dalekom Istoku, te izmedju Indije i whether the construction of national installations
Pakistana, napuπtanje nacionalnih instalacija for the enrichment of uranium and the processing
izgleda nedostiænom iluzijom. Optimizam se of spent nuclear fuel can be replaced by a solution
ipak moæe izvoditi iz toga πto je alternativa providing greater resistance to proliferation, some
gotovo sigurno klizanje u proliferaciju, nuklearni form of international service for the supply of nuclear
terorizam i katastrofu nuklearnog sukoba. fuel. Although in the current situation with open
conflicts in the Near East, Far East, and between
India and Pakistan, the abandonment of national
8.1 Ugovor o neπirenju nuklearnog oruæja − pokuπaj installations appears to be a pipe dream. Optimism
kontrole nuklearne proliferacije is possible because the alternative is nearly certain
Najraniji pokuπaj da se osigura od zloupotrebe proliferation, nuclear terrorism and catastrophic
nuklearne tehnologije bio je ameriËki prijedlog u nuclear conflict.
Ujedinjenim Narodima 1946. dok su eksplozije
nad Hiroshimom i Nagasakijem joπ bile u svjeæem
sjeÊanju. Prema tome prijedlogu, poznatom kao 8.1 The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of
Lilienthal-Baruchov prijedlog, osnovala bi se agencija Nuclear Weapons ∑ An Attempt to Control Nuclear
u okviru Ujedinjenih Naroda, International Atomic Proliferation
Development Agency, IADA, koja bi u svojim The earliest attempt to insure against the abuse of
instalacijama obavljala najveÊi dio aktivnosti nuclear technology was the American proposal at
ciklusa goriva. No, Sovjetski Savez je tada veÊ the United Nations in 1946, while the explosions in
radio na svojoj atomskoj bombi (aktivirana 1949. Hiroshima and Nagasaki were still fresh in memory.
godine) i suprostavio se prijedlogu. According to this proposal, known as the Lilienthal-
Baruch Plan, an agency would be established
Umjesto da svijet krene zajedniËkim putem prema within the framework of the United Nations, the
miroljubivom koriπtenju nuklearne energije, International Atomic Development Agency, IADA,
zapoËela je trka u nuklearnom naoruæanju. Ona je which would conduct most of the activity of the
trajala sve do raspada Sovjetskog Saveza 1990. fuel cycle in its own installations. However, the
s time πto je koliËina nuklearnog oruæja dosegla Soviet Union was already working on its own atomic
brojke od viπe desetaka tisuÊa atomskih glava bomb, activated in the year 1949, and opposed this
na svakoj strani, dovoljno za viπestruko uniπtenje proposal.
planeta.
Instead of the world embarking on a common
Sredinom 80-tih godina u zraku su trajno bili path toward the peaceful use of nuclear energy,
bombarderi s nuklearnim oruæjem, a desetine the nuclear arms race began. It lasted until the
nuklearnih brodova i podmornica bile su dissolution of the former Soviet Union in 1990,
razmjeπtene na strateπkim pozicijama, spremne when there were many tens of thousands of atomic
za neposrednu akciju. Uz izvjesnu dozu sreÊe warheads on each side, enough to destroy the
ËovjeËanstvo je preæivjelo taj nevjerojatan period. planet many times over.

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Medjutim, ta situacija kao pozadina bitna je za During the mid 1980s, there were constantly
razumijevanje kontrole πirenja nuklearnog oruæja. bombers carrying nuclear weapons in the air, and
Do 1990. godine dvije nadmoÊne nuklearne super dozens of nuclear ships and submarines were
sile kontrolirale su svaka svoj blok, dok je grupa stationed at strategic positions, ready for direct
nesvrstanih zemalja inzistirala na nuklearnom combat. Humankind survived this incredible
razoruæanju. period with a certain amount of luck. However,
this situation is the essential background for
U toj opÊoj atmosferi 1970. godine stupio je na understanding the control of the proliferation of
snagu Ugovor o neπirenju nuklearnog oruæja, Non- nuclear weapons. Until 1990, the two nuclear
Proliferation Treaty (NPT). NPT je ugovor izmedju superpowers each controlled their own blocks, while
grupe zemalja u posjedu nuklearnog oruæja i the group of nonaligned countries was insisting
zemalja koje ne posjeduju nuklearno oruæje, ali upon nuclear disarmament.
æele iskoriπtavati nuklearnu energiju u miroljubive
svrhe. Te zemlje obvezuju se ugovorom, (Ëlanak Amidst this general atmosphere, in 1970 the Non-
III.), iskljuËivo na miroljubivu uporabu i prihvat Proliferation Treaty, NPT, went into effect. The
meunarodnih kontrola od strane Meunarodne NPT is a contract among a group of countries that
agencije za atomsku energiju MAAE (IAEA possess nuclear weapons and countries that do not
Safeguards). Nuklearne sile pak obvezuju se na possess nuclear weapons but want to use nuclear
stvarne korake prema nuklearnom razoruæanju i na energy for peaceful purposes. These countries are
pomoÊ u usvajanju nuklearne tehnologije (Ëlanak obligated by Article III of the Treaty to use nuclear
IV.). Uravnoteæene obveze dviju strana Ugovora energy exclusively for peaceful purposes and accept
rezultirale su u tome da je Ugovor o neπirenju international control by the International Atomic
nuklearnog oruæja postao jedan od najπire Energy Agency (IAEA Safeguards). The nuclear
prihvaÊenih meunarodih ugovora, sa 189 dræava powers are obligated to take actual steps toward
potpisnica do konca 2006. godine. nuclear disarmament and contribute “to the further
development of the applications of nuclear energy
Ugovor predvia reviziju stanja primjene svakih for peaceful purposes, especially in the territories
pet godina. No, kako se iza 1970. godine utrka of non-nuclear-weapon States” (Article IV). The
u nuklearnom naoruæanju joπ samo intenzivirala, balanced obligations of the two parties to the Treaty
petogodiπnje revizijske konferencije bile su mjesto resulted in it becoming one of the most widely
sve oπtrije kritike nenuklearnih Ëlanica prema accepted international treaties, with 189 countries
nuklearnim silama. »evrta revizijska konferencija having signed it by the end of the year 2006.
1990. godina bila je u neπto povoljnijoj atmosferi
nakon sporazuma o uklanjanju nuklearnog oruæja The Treaty provides for a review of its operation
srednjeg dometa (Intermediate Nuclear Force every five years. However, since the nuclear arms
Treaty) 1987. godine. U pozitivnijoj klimi nakon race only intensified after 1970, the Review and
prestanka hladnog rata potpisani su izmedju SAD i Extension Conferences held every five years were
Sovjetskog Saveza ugovori o smanjenju strateπkog places of increasingly sharp criticism of the nuclear
nuklearnog oruæja, START I, 1991. godine, powers by the non-nuclear members. The Fourth
s redukcijom od polaznih 13 000 i 10 000 Review and Extension Conference, held in the year
atomskih glava na oko 8 000 za svaku stranu. 1990, took place in a somewhat more favorable
START II potpisan je 1993. godine i predvia atmosphere following the Intermediate-Range
daljnju redukciju na 3 000 do 3 500 atomskih Nuclear Forces Treaty of 1987, on the elimination
glava za svaku stranu. of intermediate-range weapons. In the positive
climate following the end of the Cold War, treaties
Nakon raspada Sovjetskog Saveza najveÊim were signed between the United States and the
dijelom je povuËeno taktiËko oruæje malih snaga i Soviet Union on the reduction of strategic nuclear
malog dosega koje je izgubilo svoje mjesto u novim weapons, START I, 1991, with reduction from the
strateπkim odnosima. initial 13 000 and 10 000 atomic warheads on each
side to approximately 8 000 on each side. START
U toj povoljnijoj klimi na Petoj revizijskoj NPT II, signed in 1993, called for further reductions of
konferenciji odræanoj 1995. godine dogovoreno 3 000 ∑ 3 500 atomic warheads on each side.
je produæenje ugovora na neodreeno vrijeme.
Nakon toga, pogorπanje opet nastupa kad je After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, for the
postalo vidljivo da bez obzira na ugovore START most part tactical weapons of low power and range
I i START II ipak ne dolazi do znaËajne redukcije that had lost their places in the new strategic
strateπkog oruæja najveÊe snage. Takoer nije relationship were withdrawn.
stupio na snagu ugovor o obustavi svih nuklearnih

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testova (Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, CTBT) In this favorable climate, at the Fifth NPT Review
potpisan1996. and Extension Conference, held in the year 1995,
the extension of the Non-Proliferation Treaty for an
Na ©estoj revizijskoj NPT konferenciji 2000. godine indefinite period of time was agreed upon. After
nuklearne sile svjesne svojih neispunjenih obveza this, the situation worsened when it became evident
deklariraju svoju predanost procesu nuklearnog that despite START I and START II, there was not
razoruæanja (unequivocal commitment). No, u going to be any significant reduction in the strategic
iduÊih pet godina do sljedeÊe, posljednje Sedme weapons of the superpowers. Furthermore, the
revizijske NPT konferencije 2005. godine nije Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, CTBT, which was
bilo napretka niti u redukciji naoruæanja niti u signed in the year 1996, did not go into effect.
stupanju na snagu zabrane testova (CTBT), kao
ni Ugovora o zabrani proizvodnje materijala za At the Sixth NPT Review and Extension Conference,
nuklearno oruæje, Fissile Materials Cut of Treaty, held in the year 2000, the nuclear powers, aware
FMCT, pa je ova konferencija zavrπila bez dogovora of their unfulfilled obligations, declared their
i zakljuËaka, u neizvjesnosti, s pesimistiËkim unequivocal commitment to the nuclear disarmament
predvianjima glede buduÊnosti. process. However, during the subsequent five
years until the Seventh NPT Review and Extension
Tu su relevantna upozorenja Direktora MAAE dr. Conference in 2005, there was no progress in the
Muhameda ElBaradeia iz kolovoza 2006. godine reduction of armaments, the going into effect of the
[15] prilikom desete godiπnjice potpisa Ugovora Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) or the going
o zabrani nuklearnih testova CTBT koji joπ uvijek into effect of the Fissile Material Cut-Off Treaty,
nije stupio na snagu, iako ga je potpisalo 170 FMCT, to ban the production of fissile material that
zemalja, a ratificiralo 135, pa dakle odraæava can be used for nuclear weapons. Thus, the Seventh
æelju veÊine zemalja. Dr. ElBaradei istiËe da je NPT Review and Extension Conference ended
NPT utemeljen na dva stupa, prvi stup je kontrola without consensus or conclusions, in uncertainty,
proliferacije prema Ëlanku III. Ugovora. Tu je amidst pessimistic forecasts for the future.
MAEE naËinila mnogo, od 1970. godine razvijena
je kontrolna operativa i regulativa, ugovore o Relevant warnings were made by the General
kontroli ratificiralo je 162 potpisnice NPT-a, a Director of the International Atomic Energy Agency
njih 78 i kasnije formulirane (od 1997. godine) (IAEA), Dr. Mohamed ElBaradei, in August 2006
Dodatne protokole kojima se osigurava viπi stupanj [15] on the occasion of the tenth anniversary of
sigurnosti od proliferacije. Drugi stup Ugovora o the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty opening for
neπirenju nuklearnog oruæja je Ëlanak VI, obveza signature, which still has not gone into force although
nuklearne petorke da uËine stvarne korake prema it has been signed by 170 countries and ratified by
uklanjanju nuklearnog oruæja. Dr. ElBaradei navodi 135, thereby expressing the desire of the majority of
da u 2006. godini joπ uvijek postoji oko 27 000 countries. Dr. ElBaradei points out that the Nuclear
atomskih glava. No, nije samo problem πto nije Non-Proliferation Treaty had two “legs,” the first of
doπlo do bitnog napretka u uklanjanju nuklearnog which was non-proliferation according to Article III of
oruæja. Ni deset godina nakon potpisa na snagu nije the Treaty. The IAEA had done much in this regard,
stupio Ugovori o zabrani nuklearnih pokusa CTBT, having established a system of verification in 1970.
a za zabranu proizvodnje materijala za nuklearno An arms control treaty was ratified by 162 signers of
oruæje, FMCT joπ nema suglasnosti za poËetak the Non-Proliferation Treaty, and 78 of them ratified
pregovora. Ta su dva ugovora bitna za zaustavljanje the subsequently formulated (1997) Additional
daljnjeg razvoja i proizvodnje nuklearnog oruæja. Protocol, which assures a higher degree of protection
Izostaje potvrda nuklearnih sila da one doista from proliferation. The other “leg” of the Nuclear
imaju namjeru ispuniti svoju obvezu prema NPT Non-Proliferation Treaty is Article VI, a commitment
i odreÊi se nuklearnog oruæja. U takovoj situaciji by the five countries with nuclear weapons to
dr. ElBaradei nasluÊuje moguÊnost erozije NPT- a, take actual steps towards nuclear disarmament.
smatrajuÊi da se meunarodni sustav kontrole Dr. ElBaradei notes that in the year 2006, there were
proliferacije nalazi na opasnoj prekretnici. still 27 000 nuclear warheads in existence. However,
the problem was not only that there had been no
significant progress in the elimination of nuclear
8.2 Multilateralni pristupi weapons. Even ten years after the Comprehensive
Zadræavanjem velikog dijela strateπkog nuklearnog Test Ban Treaty had been opened for signature, it
arsenala dviju nuklearnih supersila gotovo dvadeset had not gone into effect, and for the Fissile Material
godina po zavrπetku hadnog rata, nuklearno oruæje Cut-Off Treaty, FMCT, there was still no agreement
pretvoreno je u svojevrsni statusni simbol i on a mandate to start negotiating. These two treaties
prepoznato kao poluga svjetske dominacije. Ono are essential to halt the continued development and
postaje atraktivno ili izaziva obrambenu reakciju, a production of nuclear weapons. What is missing is

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u svakom sluËaju stimulira proliferaciju. Nuklearne confirmation from the nuclear powers that they truly
sile koje se ne razoruæavaju, niti su spremne intend to fulfill their obligations toward the Nuclear
odreÊi se daljnjeg razvoja nuklearnog oruæja nisu Non-Proliferation Treaty and relinquish their nuclear
u poziciji, ni moralno ni legalno, pozivati se na weapons. In such a situation, Dr. ElBaradei senses
NPT u nastojanju da zaustave nuklearne razvoje u possible erosion of the NPT, in that the international
nenuklearnim zemljama. Pokuπava se stoga novim system of the control of nonproliferation could be at
pristupom gdje se pojedinim zemljama nude a dangerous turning point.
ugovori za opskrbu nuklearnim gorivom, ukoliko
odustanu od vlastitih instalacija za obogaÊenje
urana. 8.2 Multilateral Approaches
The two nuclear superpowers, by retaining a
Zemlja koja dobavlja gorivo pri tom nema obveze large portion of their strategic nuclear arsenal for
vlastitog razoruæanja, a zemlja primalac odriËe se nearly twenty years after the end of the Cold War,
prava koje je imala po Ëlanku IV. ugovora NPT. have transformed nuclear weapons into a type
Za razliku od sustava NPT koji je imao gotovo of status symbol that is recognized as a lever of
univerzalan prihvat svojom ravnoteæom obveza dviju world domination. Nuclear weapons are becoming
strana, u tzv. Multilateralnom sustavu nuklearne attractive or provoke a defensive reaction, and in any
zemlje nemaju obveze razoruæanja. Vrlo je mala case stimulate proliferation. The nuclear powers are
πansa da takav sustav bude univerzalno prihvaÊen not disarming, are not ready to relinquish the further
poput NPT- a. Nije nemoguÊe da Êe takav sustav development of weapons, and are not in a moral or
dobave goriva biti pogodan nekim zemljama, ali legal position to invoke the NPT in their attempts to
ga sigurno neÊe prihvatiti one zemlje koje kao stop nuclear development in non-nuclear countries.
i postojeÊe nuklearne sile æele posjedovati taj They are, therefore, attempting a new approach,
statusni simbol. Multilateralne pristupe analizirala whereby they offer individual countries contracts for
je i MAAE [16]. Meutim, jedno univerzalno the supply of nuclear fuel if they relinquish their own
prihvaÊanje odricanja od nacionalnih instalacija installations for uranium enrichment.
za obogaÊenje urana i preradu goriva zamislivo
je samo ako bi se sve postojeÊe instalacije, Accordingly, the country that supplies nuclear fuel
dakle i one u nuklearnim zemljama, izuzele iz is not required to disarm, and the recipient country
nacionalnog upravljanja i doπle pod jurisdikciju i relinquishes the rights which it had pursuant to
nadzor meunarodne organizacije poput MAAE, Article IV of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
drugim rijeËima ako bi se vratili na neπto sliËno Unlike the system of the NPT, which had almost
poËetnom pokuπaju iz 1946. godine. No, dok je universal acceptance with its balanced obligations
internacionalizacija gorivnog ciklusa dugoroËnija between the two sides, the nuclear countries are
buduÊnost, koraci nuklearnih zemalja potpisnica not obligated to disarm in the so-called multilateral
NPT u pravom smjeru bili bi oni kojim bi one system. There is very little chance that such a system
pokazale namjeru ispunjavanja svojih obveza po would be universally accepted, as was the NPT. It is
Ëlanku VI, a to su prihvat zabrane testova, tj. not impossible that such a system for the supply of
ugovora CTBT i zabrane proizvodnje materijala za nuclear fuel will be favorable for some countries, but
nuklearno oruæje (FMCT). it certainly will not be accepted by those countries
which, like the existing nuclear powers, want to
possess this status symbol. Multilateral approaches
have also been analyzed by the IAEA [16]. However,
the universal acceptance of the relinquishment of
national installations for uranium enrichment and
processing spent nuclear fuel is only conceivable if
all the installations, including those in the nuclear
countries, are removed from national administration
and come under the jurisdiction and supervision of
an international organization such as the IAEA, i.e.
if they were to return to something similar to the
attempt begun in the year 1946. However, while
the internationalization of the fuel cycle is still in
the distant future, it would be a step in the right
direction by the nuclear countries that are signers
of the NPT to demonstrate their intentions to fulfill
their obligations pursuant to Article VI, by accepting
the test ban, i.e. the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty,
and by prohibiting the production of materials for
nuclear weapons according to the Fissile Material
Cut-Off Treaty.

687 Knapp, V., KrejËi, M., Lebegner, J., Prvih pola stoljeÊa...., Energija, god. 55 (2006), br. 6., str. 658 ∑ 689
Knapp, V., KrejËi, M., Lebegner, J., The First Half Century...., Energija, vol. 55 (2006), No. 6, p.p. 658 ∑ 689
9 ZAKLJU»AK 9 CONCLUSION
Nakon pet desetljeÊa postojanja nuklearna After five decades that the nuclear power industry
energetska industrija je sazrijela, a njen udio has been in existence, it has matured and its share
u opskrbi elektriËnom energijom na svjetskoj in the world energy supply is 16 %. Trends in energy
razini je 16 %. Trendovi u planiranju energetike planning once again make it an attractive option
ponovo ju Ëine atraktivnom opcijom, te mnogi and many predict the continued growth of its share
predviaju daljnji rast sadaπnjeg udjela u opskrbi. in the total electricity supply. Uranium reserves are
Zalihe urana dostatne su da omoguÊe razvoj sufficient to permit development, even in the most
Ëak i u najoptimistiËnijem scenariju. Tehnoloπki optimistic scenario. Technological development and
razvoj i akumulirano iskustvo uËinili su danaπnje accumulated experience have made today’s reactor
reaktore pogonski pouzdanim i ekonomiËnim, a plants reliable and economical. A very high level of
sigurnost je dosegla vrlo visok nivo. Proizvodnja safety has been achieved. The production of large
velikih koliËina elektriËne energije bez emisija quantities of electrical energy without the emission
stakleniËkih plinova svakako je jedan od glavnih of greenhouse gases is certainly one of the most
aduta nuklearne tehnologije. attractive attributes of nuclear technology.

UnatoË znaËajnom napretku, najavljena nuklearna Despite significant advancement, the heralded
renesansa sa sobom nosi i znaËajne izazove za nuclear renaissance also implies challenges for
nuklearnu industriju. Prije svega sadaπnji dobri the nuclear industry. First of all, today’s good
pokazatelji sigurnosti, pouzdanosti i ekono- safety indices and reliability, together with the cost
miËnosti pogona reaktora moraju se nastaviti i effectiveness of reactor plants, must also continue
u buduÊnosti. Liberalizacija træiπta elektriËnom in the future. The liberalization of the electricity
energijom mijenja preference investitora i Ëini market changes the preferences of investors and
ih viπe osjetljivim na rizike. Zbog toga Êe nuk- makes them more vulnerable to risks. Therefore,
learna industrija morati uloæiti znaËajne napore the nuclear industry must invest considerable
za sniæavanje troπkova i skraÊivanje rokova iz- efforts in reducing costs and shortening the time
gradnje nuklearnih elektrana. Iako je pitanje required for the construction of nuclear power
zbrinjavanja nisko i srednje radioaktivnog otpada plants. Although the question of the disposal of
rijeπeno, potrebno je uloæiti dodatne napore kako low-level and medium-level radioactive wastes has
bi se ponudio adekvatan odgovor i na pitanje been solved, it is necessary to invest additional
zbrinjavanja visokoradioaktivnog otpada. ZnaËajno efforts in order to provide an adequate response
πirenje nuklearne energije nesumnjivo Êe poveÊati to the question of the disposal of high-level
i opasnost od proliferacije nuklearnih materijala, radioactive wastes. The significant spread of
te je i u tom aspektu potrebno uloæiti znaËajne nuclear energy will undoubtedly increase the threat
napore. OËekuje se da Êe reaktori naprednog of the proliferation of nuclear materials, and it is
dizajna (AP1000, EPR, ABWR) s karakteristikama also necessary to invest considerable efforts in this
pasivne sigurnosti, sniæenim investicijskim i po- aspect. It is anticipated that reactors of advanced
gonskim troπkovima pruæiti odgovore na veÊinu design (AP 1000, EPR and ABWR), characterized
navedenih problema. by passive safety, reduced investment costs and
reduced operational costs, will provide responses to
Nuklearna tehnologija, kao i svaka druga uostalom, the majority of the problems presented.
ima odreene predosti i nedostatke. Danaπnje
okolnosti ponovno favoriziraju prednosti, te su Nuclear technology, like any other technology, has
sve glasniji glasovi da se na nuklearnu tehnologiju certain advantages and disadvantages. Today’s
mora raËunati kao bitnu sastavnicu energetskog circumstances once again favor the advantages,
miksa buduÊnosti. and it is increasingly apparent that it is necessary
to count on nuclear technology as an essential
component of the energy mix of the future.

Knapp, V., KrejËi, M., Lebegner, J., Prvih pola stoljeÊa...., Energija, god. 55 (2006), br. 6., str. 658 ∑ 689
Knapp, V., KrejËi, M., Lebegner, J., The First Half Century...., Energija, vol. 55 (2006), No. 6, p.p. 658 ∑ 689 688
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Uredniπtvo primilo rukopis: Manuscript received on:


2006-12-22 2006-12-22

PrihvaÊeno: Accepted on:


2007-01-05 2007-01-05

689 Knapp, V., KrejËi, M., Lebegner, J., Prvih pola stoljeÊa...., Energija, god. 55 (2006), br. 6., str. 658 ∑ 689
Knapp, V., KrejËi, M., Lebegner, J., The First Half Century...., Energija, vol. 55 (2006), No. 6, p.p. 658 ∑ 689