Statistics 151 Solution Sample Final Exam

Total: 100 points Time: 3 Hour

1. [15 pts] The lengths of the trout fry in a pond at the fish hatchery are approximately normally distributed
with mean µ of 3.4 inches and standard deviation σ of 0.8 inches.
a. What proportion of the trout will be greater than 4 inches?

Answer: X is N(3.4, .8). So, P (X > 4) = P(Z>.75) = 0.2266 (about 23%).

b. 95% of the trout will have a length greater than what value?

Answer: P( X > k) = .95 or P( X ≤ k) = 0.05 ⇒k = 3.4 − 1.645×.8 = 2.084.

c. How large a sample from this population should be taken if one wants to be 99% sure that the
margin of error does not exceed 0.25 inches?
2
 z* × σ   2.576 × .8 
2

Answer : n ≥   = = 67.95 ⇒ n = 68
 m   .25 

d. Suppose in another pond we are not sure whether the average length µ of the trout is the same as
or different from 3.4 inches. Assume now that X ~ N (µ, 0.8 2). The unknown population mean
length of the trout in the second pond needs to be estimated. A random sample of 100 trout is
drawn from the population, and it yields a sample mean length of 3.2 inches. Do the data provide
any evidence to conclude that the average length of the trout in this pond is less than 3.4 inches?
Test appropriate hypotheses using α = 0.01.

Answer: Hypotheses: H0 : µ = 3.4, H0 vs µ < 3.4; Test statistic z = −2.5; p-value =

0.0062; Conclusion: The data provide sufficient evidence to conclude that the average
length of the trout in the pond is less than 3.4 inches.

2. [5 pts] In an experiment, cakes baked from a new cake mix are baked at 300, 320, and 340, and
for 1 hour, and 1 hour and 15 minutes. Ten cakes are baked at each combination of temperature
and time. A panel of tasters scores each for texture and taste.

a. What are the explanatory variables and response variables for this experiment?

Answer: Explanatory variables: temperature and time

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 Response variable: Score for texture and taste

b. Make a diagram to describe the treatments. How many treatments are there? How many cakes
are needed?

Answer: There are two factors and 6 treatments. The treatments are given in the
following table:

Time
Temperature 1 hour 1.25 hour
300 Treatment 1 Treatment 2
320 Treatment 3 Treatment 4
340 Treatment 5 Treatment 6

There are 6 treatments, so 60 cakes will be needed.

3. [10 pts] Many homeowners buy detectors to check for the invisible gas radon in their homes. How
accurate are these detectors? To answer this question, university researchers placed 12 radon detectors
in a chamber where they were exposed to 105 picocuries per liter (pCi/l) of radon over 3 days. The
detector reading were as follows: 91.9, 97.8, 111.4, 122.3, 105.4, 95.0, 103.8, 99.6, 96.6, 119.3,
104.8, 101.7
a. Calculate the mean and sample standard deviation for this data.

Answer: Sample mean = 104.13, sample standard deviation, s = 9.40.

b. Give a 90% CI for the mean reading µ of all detectors of this type.

Answer: Assuming the readings are approximately normally distributed, a 90%

confidence interval is, using a t distribution with 11 degrees of freedom,

s 9.40
x ± t* = 104.13 ± (1.796) = 104.13 ± 4.87 = (99.26,109.00) .
n 12

c. What conclusion can you make from this interval?

Answer: The detectors appear to be accurate.

4. [10 marks] Suppose that 20% of the trees in a forest are infested with a certain type of parasite.
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 a. Find the probability that at least one tree will contain parasite in a random sample of 10 trees.

Answer: X is B(10, .2). So, P(X ≥ 1 ) = 1 – P(x = 0) = 1 − .810 = 1 – .1074 = 0.8926

b. Find the probability that not more than 50 trees will contain parasites in a random sample of 300
trees.

Answer: X is B(300, .2). Then µ = np = 60, σ =√np(1-p) = 6.93. Using normal

approximation,

P (X ≤ 50) ≈ P( Z ≤ (50−60)/6.93) = P( Z ≤−1.44) = 0.0749 ( Without continuity

correction)

With continuity correction: P (X ≤50) ≈ P( Z ≤ (50.5−60)/6.93) = P( Z ≤ −1.37) = 0.0853.

c. After sampling 300 trees, suppose that 72 trees are found to have the parasite. Does this provide
strong evidence that the population proportion (p) of infested trees is higher than 20%? Test
appropriate hypotheses using α = 0.05.

Answer: Hypotheses: H0 : p =.20 vs Ha : p >.20; Test statistic: z = (p-hat − .2)/SE(p-hat) =(.24 −

.2)/sqrt((.2*.8)/300) = 1.73; p-value = P(Z ≥ 1.73) = 0.0418; Conclusion: At 5% significant
level, we conclude that the percentage of trees infested with parasites is more than 20%.

5. [10 pts] A car dealer specializing in Corvettes enlarged his facilities and offered a number of models for
sale during the open house. From his data on price (y in $1000) and age (x in years) of Corvettes, the
following data were obtained:

x 1 2 4 5 6 6 10 11 11 12 12 12 12 13 15
y 39.9 32.0 25.0 20.0 16.0 20.0 13.0 13.7 11.0 12.0 20.0 9.0 9.0 12.5 7.0

The regression equation is: Price = 33.73 – 1.862 × Age.

x = 8.8, y = 17.34, ∑ ( x − x )( y − y ) = −499.78, ∑ ( x − x ) 2 = 268.4, ∑ ( y − y ) 2 = 1175.816,

SSE = 245.19

a. Is there sufficient evidence to indicate a negative linear relationship between selling price and age?
Test appropriate hypotheses using α = 0.05.

Answer: H0 : β =0 vs Ha : β < 0; Test statistic : t = b/SE(b) = -1.862/.2651 =−7.02 [Note:

SE(b)=s/sqrt(268.4), s= sqrt(SSE/n-2)= 4.3429, SE(b) =0.2651], df = 13; p-value < .0005;
Conclusion: There is a negative linear relationship between selling price and age.

b. Give a 95% confidence interval for the predicted value for a 5-year old Corvette to be listed in the
next week’s paper.

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 Answer: 95% Prediction interval is:.

1 ( x* − x ) 2 1 (5 − 8.8) 2
yˆ ± t × s × 1 + + = 24.42 ± ( 2.16) × ( 4.3429) × 1 + +
*

n ∑ (x − x )2 15 268.4
= 24.42 ± 9.39 = (14.49,34.35) = $14490 to $34350.

c. Is it justifiable to predict the selling price of a 20-year old Corvette from the fitted regression line?
Give reasons for your answer.
Answer: No, we cannot predict beyond the range of data. The linear relation cannot hold
for cars that old because we know the selling price never goes below.

6. [10 pts] Three models of automobiles were tested for fuel efficiency as follows. Exactly three litres of
gasoline were placed in the gasoline tank of a car. The car was then driven until the fuel was used up. The
number of kilometers traveled for each model was recorded for several tests each. The following data were
collected.

Car Model A B C
Sample size 4 6 8
Sample mean 18 16 20.25
Sample Sd. Dev. 1.633 1.414 2.053

Is there any significant difference in average distance traveled on 3 litres of fuel for these three
models? Test appropriate hypotheses using α = 0.01.

Answer: H0 : µ1 = µ2 = µ3 , Ha : Not all three means are equal.

Test statistic: F = MSG/MSE

y= ∑n yi 330
i
= = 18.33
18 18

MSG = ∑ ni ( y − y ) 2 i 4(18 − 18.33) 2 + 6(16 − 18.33) 2 + 8( 20.25 − 18.33) 2 62.50

= = = 31.25
I −1 3 −1 2

MSE = ∑ ( ni − 1) si2 3 × 1.6332 + 5 × 1.414 2 + 7 × 2.0532 47.50

= = = 3.17
n− I 18 − 3 15

F = MSG/MSE = [31.25/3.17 = 9.86, with degrees of freedom df1 = 2, df2 = 15.

P-value = P( F ≥ 9.86) < 0.01.
Conclusion: There is significant difference in average distance traveled on 3 litres of fuel
for these three models.

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7. [10 pts] A fruit grower wants to test a new spray that is claimed (by a manufacturer) to reduce the
loss due to damage by insects. To this end, the grower performs an experiment with 27 trees in her
orchard by treating 12 of those trees with the new spray and the other 15 trees with the standard
spray. From the data of fruit yield (in pounds) of those trees, the following summary statistics were
found.

New spray Standard Spray

Mean yield per 249 233
tree (lbs)
Standard 19 45
deviation

(a) Do these data provide sufficient evidence to conclude that the mean yield per tree treated with the
new spray exceeds that for trees treated with the standard spray? State the assumptions you make
and test at α = 0.05.

Answer: Let µ1 and µ2 are the mean yield per tree treated by the new spray and the
standard spray, respectively.
Assumptions: We assume that (i) the 12 trees and 15 trees are randomly selected from the
orchard and (ii) the yield per tree is distributed normally.
Hypotheses : H0 : µ1 = µ2 vs Ha : µ1 > µ2

Test Statistic t = ( x 1 − x 2)/√[s12 /n1 + s22 /n2]

= (249 − 233) /√[(19)2 /12 + (45)2 /15] = 1.25

df = 11, which is the smaller of the two (n1−1) and (n2 −1).

P-value : 0.10 < P( t ≥ 1.25) < .15. (p-value > α = 0.05)

Conclusion: The sample data do not support the manufacturer’s claim that the mean
yield per tree ( treated by the new spray )will increase by the new spray.

(b) Construct a 95% confidence interval for the difference in mean yields between the new spray and
the standard spray.

Answer: The 95% confidence interval estimate for µ1 - µ2 is

= ( x 1 − x 2) ± t*√[s12 /n1 + s22 /n2] (df = 11)

=249 − 233 ± 2.201*√[(19)2 /12 + (45)2 /15]

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 = 16 ± 28.28 = (−12.28, 44.28)
8. [10 pts] In a study of the relationship between temperament and personality, 49 female high school
students who had a high level of reactivity (HRL) and 54 students who had a low level of reactivity
(LRL) were classified according to their attitude to group pressure with the following results.

Attitude
Submissive Resistant
HRL 33 16
LRL 12 42

(a) Is resistance to group pressure significantly lower in the HRL group than the LRL group?

Answer: Let p1 and p2 be the probabilities of resistance for the HRL and LRL groups,
respectively.

Hypotheses : H0 : p1 - p2 = 0 Vs. Ha : p1 - p2 < 0

) ) ) )
Test statistic : z = ( p1 − p2 ) / p (1 − p) /(1 / n1 + 1 / n 2 )
)
p1 = X1/n1= 16/49 = 0.3265,
)
p 2 = X2/n2 = 42/54 = 0.7778,
)
p = (X1 + X2)/(n1 + n2) = (16 +42/(49 + 54) = 0.5631

) ) ) )
∴ z = ( p1 − p2 ) / p (1 − p) /(1 / n1 + 1 / n 2 ) = −4.61

P-value : P-value = P(Z ≤ -4.61) < 0.0002.

Conclusion : The data strongly support the conclusion that the probability of
resistance in the HRL group is significantly lower than that of in the LRL group.

(b) Determine a 99% confidence interval for the difference between the proportions of resistant females
in the HRL and LRL populations.

Answer: 99% confidence interval estimate for p1 - p2 is

pˆ1 − pˆ 2 ± z * SE ( pˆ1 - p̂ 2 )
3265(.6735) .7778(.2222)
= −.4513 ± 2.576 * +
49 54
= −.4513 ± .2258 = ( −.6775,−.2255)
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9. [10 pts] Suppose the following display represents 500 automobile accidents that occurred in a large
city:

No fatalities At least one fatality

Involved alcohol 68 142
No alcohol 194 96

Determine whether there is a relationship between alcohol and fatality? Use α = 0.01 in your test.

Answer: Hypotheses are: H0 : Fatality is not related to use of alcohol vs Ha: Fatality is
related to use of alcohol. Under the null hypothesis of independence, the expected frequencies
are: E(1,1) = 110.04, E(1,2) = 99.96, E(2,1) = 151.96, E(2,2) = 138.04 and χ2 = 58.175, df =
1, p-value = 0.0. Conclusion: There is strong evidence to conclude that there is an association
between alcohol use and fatality.

10. [10 pts] Does alcohol affect the ability to think? A random sample consisting of 11 automobile drivers
was selected to study whether or not alcohol has some effect on time to complete a puzzle. Under one
scenario, the person would drink a beverage that contained no alcohol; under another scenario, the
person would drink a beverage with alcohol. Each person's time to complete the puzzle was recorded.
The following data were obtained:

Driver 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
No alcohol 7.1 6.3 6.8 8.4 6.9 8.5 7.3 7.7 8.1 7.4 6.6
With Alcohol 7.4 6.2 6.6 9.3 7.2 8.8 7.6 7.9 8.7 7.9 7.0

Do the data provide any evidence to conclude that more time is required to complete the puzzle
after consuming alcohol? Test the appropriate hypotheses at α = 0.01.

Answer: Let µ = µ1 − µ2 = µwithout − µwith = the difference between the average

completion times of the puzzle. Hypotheses are: H0 :µ = 0 vs Ha: µ < 0.

Using paired t-procedure, t =-3.49 and p-value < 0.005 (less than α = 0.01)
Conclusion: The data provide sufficient evidence to indicate that it requires more
time, on average, to complete the puzzle after consuming alcohol.