A Case Study about Load Forecasting Using End-use analysis

Load forecasting is a technique used by power or energy-providing companies to predict the

power/energy needed to meet the demand and supply equilibrium. The accuracy of forecasting is of great
significance for the operational and managerial loading of a utility company.
Load forecasts have long been recognized as the initial building block for all utility planning efforts.
While changing market structures have altered the types of forecasts that are most useful, the link between
sound evaluation and design of infrastructure improvements is irreducible. Physical system planners
condition their alternatives on future views regarding load levels and locations. Financial planners tie both
revenue and expense forecasts to expected future energy sales and peak demands.

Figure: Actual vs Model Load Forecasting

Source: https://www.mathworks.com/examples/matlabxl/community/19611-electricity-load-forecasting-australia

The end-use analysis directly estimates energy consumption by using extensive information on end
usage and end users. Statistical information about customers along with dynamics of change is the basis for
the forecast.
End-use models focus on the various uses of electricity in the residential, commercial, and industrial
sector. These models are based on the principle that electricity demand is derived from customer’s demand
for light, cooling, heating, refrigerating, etc. Thus, end-use models explain energy demand as a function of
the number of appliances in the market.
Periods of Load Forecasting

Short term load forecasting

Help to estimate load flows and to make decisions that can prevent overloading. Timely
implementations of such decision lead to the improvement of network reliability and to the reduced
occurrences of equipment failures and blackouts. This is usually used for time factors, weather data, and
possible customers’ classes.

Medium and Long-term forecasting

This is a forecasting method wherein it focuses on the historical load, number of customers in
different categories, and appliances in the area and their characteristics including age, the economic and
demographic data and their forecasts, the appliances sales data, and other factors. The approach that is
usually use for medium and long-term forecasting is End-use approach which is broadly used.

Using End-use Analysis approach

End-use analysis is confined largely to forecasting residential loads, although some large utilities
are now extending it to the commercial and industrial sectors. This method surveys major electricity-
consuming residential equipment. Forecasts are made by projecting equipment quantity, energy efficiency
and use.

In simplifies form, electricity use for a particular type of equipment is forecast by multiplying the
total number of customers times the estimated fraction of customers with that type of equipment times the
estimated average energy use for the equipment or so-called usage rate.

Calculation for the usage rate depending on the equipment type:

kWh = N x saturation rate x usage rate

Where:
N is number of customers
Saturation rate is units of equipment over customer (unit of eq. / N)
Usage rate is estimated average energy use for the equipment.
Load Factor for End-Users Approach
End-use models focus on the various uses of electricity in the residential, commercial, and industrial sector.
These models are based on the principle that electricity demand is derived from customer's demand for
light, cooling, heating, refrigeration, etc. Thus, endues models explain energy demand as a function of the
number of applications in the market.
Ideally, this approach is very accurate. However, it is sensitive to the amount and quality of end-use data.
For example, in this method the distribution of equipment age is important for particular types of appliances.
End-use forecast requires less historical data but more information about customers and their equipment’s.
This method predicts the energy consumptions. If we want to calculate the load, we have to have the load
factor in each sections and different types of energy consumptions and then by load factor we can calculate
the load in each section.

Calculation for the Load Factor for End-Use Approach

The system load factor is defined as follows with the equation:
𝐴𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑔𝑒−𝐿𝑜𝑎𝑑 𝐷𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑛𝑑
𝐿𝑜𝑎𝑑 𝐹𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑟 =
𝑃𝑒𝑎𝑘−𝐿𝑜𝑎𝑑 𝐷𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑛𝑑

Thus,
𝐴𝑛𝑛𝑢𝑎𝑙 𝑘𝑊ℎ 𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑔𝑦
𝐿𝑜𝑎𝑑 𝐹𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑟 = 8760ℎ𝑟𝑠
(𝑃𝑒𝑎𝑘−𝐿𝑜𝑎𝑑 𝐷𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑛𝑑)( )
𝑦𝑟

Advantages and Disadvantages of End-Use Load Forecasting

Advantages
1. It identifies exactly where electricity goes, how much is used for each purpose, and the potential for
additional conservation for each end-use.
2. End-use analysis provides specific information on how energy requirements can be reduced over
time from conservation measures such as improved insulation levels, increased use of storm
windows, building code changes, or improved appliances efficiencies.
3. An end-use model also breaks down electricity into residential, commercial, and industrial
demands.
4. Such a model can be used to forecast load changes caused by change within one sector and load
changes resulting indirectly from changes in the other two sectors.
5. Commercial sector end-use model currently being developed have the capability of making energy
demand forecasts by end-users as specific type of business and type of building
6. This is a major improvement over projecting only sector-wide energy consumption and using
economic and demographic data for large geographical areas.
Disadvantages
1. The disadvantage of end-use analysis is that most end-use models assume a constant relationship
between electricity and end-use (electricity per appliance).
2. This might hold true over a few years, but over a 10 or more-year period, energy savings
technology or energy prices will undoubtedly change, and the relationship will not remain constant.
3. End-use analysis also requires extensive data, since all relationship between electric load and all
the many end-uses must be calculated as precisely as possible.
4. Data on the existing stock of energy-consuming capital in many cases is very limited.
5. Also, If the data needed for end-use analysis is not current, it may not accurately reflect either
present of future conditions, and this can affect the accuracy of the forecast.
6. Without an econometric component that is explained above, does not takes price changes in
electricity or other competing fuels into consideration.