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* * * * * * MONDAY, NOVEMBER 27, 2017 ~ VOL. CCLXX NO. 125 WSJ.com HHHH $4.00
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T he number of people
visiting U.S. stores on
Thanksgiving and Black BY YUKA HAYASHI
Friday fell 4% from last
year, while online pur- WASHINGTON—An Obama-
chases increased 18%. A1 era official at the Consumer Fi-
nancial Protection Bureau sued
Meredith has agreed
the Trump administration Sun-
to pay $18.50 a share in
day night to block the installa-
cash for Time, valuing
tion of budget director Mick
the fabled New York pub-
Mulvaney from taking control
lisher at $1.85 billion, in
of the agency.
a bet on the future of the
WILLIAM B. PLOWMAN/NBC/GETTY IMAGES
U.S. NEWS
THE OUTLOOK | By Nick Timiraos
ECONOMIC
T
plus the start of the shrinking oday, wages and prices Fed rate Balance sheet back the economy. Persistently outlook.
–1.0
of their large bond portfolio. haven’t moved as the hikes normalization low inflation in the end would The U.S. Commerce Depart-
Whether officials can pull framework would sug- –1.2 force the Fed to cease any rate ment releases its second estimate
off a repeat performance by gest, raising questions over 2013 ’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 increase campaign and could for third-quarter economic growth.
sticking to their road map of whether the labor market leave it with little room to ma- Economists surveyed by The Wall
gradual rate increases again might have more slack or if Inflation has slowed in 2017 and continues to underperform the Fed's neuver should another reces- Street Journal expect gross do-
next year is clouded by con- something more permanent is projections of reaching the 2% target over the medium term. sion hit. mestic product grew at a 3.3%
flicting signals on two items holding inflation back. Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, annual The third risk is the econ- annual rate last quarter, following
that matter most to the cen- “We’re not seeing quite omy avoids an inflation run-up a 3.1% rate in the second. That
tral bank: employment and in- what we’re expecting to see,” 2.5% but rising asset values and low represents the best six-month
flation. said New York Fed President 2.0
Fed target market volatility fuel financial stretch of growth in three years.
Steady job gains have William Dudley this month. Core inflation imbalances. The last two ex- THURSDAY: The U.S. Com-
dropped the unemployment “That creates a bit of uncer- 1.5 pansions ended this way, with merce Department releases infla-
rate to lower-than-expected tainty about the best course the tech-stock bubble of 2000 tion data for October. Septem-
1.0
levels, at 4.1% in October, a 17- going forward.” and the housing-market col- ber’s reading showed prices were
year low. If the unemployment Most Fed officials expect 0.5 Overall inflation lapse of 2007. up 1.6% from the previous year,
rate drops next year as much once the jobless rate falls low short of the Fed’s 2% target.
M
as it did this year—a 0.7 per- enough, price pressures will 0.0 s. Yellen’s nominated Figures from the European
centage point slide—it would re-emerge. No one is quite 2012 ’13 ’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 successor, Fed gover- Union’s statistics agency are ex-
plumb lows not seen since the sure what that exact level is, Source: Chicago Fed (financial conditions); nor Jerome Powell, pected to show unemployment
late 1960s. but each decline in the unem- Commerce Department (inflation) THE WALL STREET JOURNAL. might try to use regulatory nudged down again in October.
Yet inflation has been puz- ployment rate brings the econ- tools to fight an asset price Data on consumer prices during
zlingly soft. After nosing omy a little closer to it. Mr. as sustainable, around 4.6%. little in order to hold the un- boom. But such tools have had November are expected to show
above the Fed’s 2% target for Dudley said low inflation isn’t Last December, Fed officials employment rate steady, at mixed results in other coun- inflation edged up to 1.5% from
the first time in five years at all bad because it means the projected the unemployment around 4%, with inflation tries, and Republicans want 1.4% in October, still below the
the start of 2017, it slowed un- economy might be able to sus- rate would end this year slowly returning to its 2% tar- Mr. Powell to lighten the regu- target of just under 2%.
expectedly and hasn’t yet re- tain a lower jobless rate. within a range of 4.4% to 4.7%. get. Tight labor markets latory load. He might instead FRIDAY: Inflation data from
bounded. Excluding volatile The Fed has held its bench- In September, the projection would continue to boost be pressed toward fighting an Japan are likely to reflect further
food and energy categories, mark federal-funds rate in a had edged down to a range of wages while encouraging em- asset price boom with higher baby steps toward strengthening
the Fed’s preferred inflation range between 1% and 1.25% 4.2% to 4.5%. Economists at ployers to pull workers out of interest rates. price growth (release time is
gauge rose just 1.3% from a since lifting it in June. Goldman Sachs expect the un- the shadows of the labor mar- Mr. Powell’s confirmation Thursday in the U.S.). October fig-
year earlier in September. The economy is still adding employment rate to keep fall- ket and to provide more non- hearing on Tuesday before a ures are expected to show the
At first, officials believed a more than enough jobs to ing, to 3.7% by the end of 2018 wage benefits, such as worker Senate panel could offer early core consumer-price index rising
few idiosyncratic price de- keep up with the growth of and 3.5% by the end of 2019. training. insight into how he will ap- by 0.8% from a year earlier, com-
clines, such as wireless phone the working-age population, For the Fed, the ideal sce- Three risks loom. proach the coming year of dif- pared with September’s 0.7% gain,
plans and prescription drugs, and the unemployment rate is nario would look something The first is the unemploy- ficult trade-offs and even though that still leaves Japan far
were to blame, though the now below levels officials view like this: job growth slows a ment rate drops too low, too harder choices. from its 2% inflation goal.
nor, heads into his confirmation prove another term for Fed gov- mond for governors. Mr. Clarida pulled out. About Powell and Stein.
hearing Tuesday before the Sen- ernor Randall Kroszner, a Bush Both women won Senate con- the same time, Treasury Secre- In May 2012, Mr. Powell was
ate Banking Committee having nominee. firmation. As a regional Fed tary Timothy Geithner learned approved, 74-21. Twenty-five
garnered support from Republi- The Fed’s responses to the fi- bank president and former Fed that Mr. Powell, a Republican Republicans voted for him, but
cans and Democrats. It isn’t the nancial crisis, including its res- governor, Ms. Yellen had solid who had served in President 20 voted no, along with an in-
first time he has been a Fed can- cues of several big financial central-bank experience. Ms. George H.W. Bush’s Treasury dependent. Mr. Stein was also
didate who offered the path of firms, attracted political fire Bloom Raskin’s background as a Department, had been challeng- confirmed, on a 70-24 vote.
least resistance. from both parties. When Mr. bank regulator was newly rele- ing members of his own party Less than two years later,
The recent wrangling started Bernanke was appointed for a vant after the financial crisis. not to play games with the U.S. Mr. Powell’s term expired. Mr.
in 2007, when President George second term in 2010, he was op- Mr. Diamond ended up the Jerome Powell debt ceiling. Obama nominated him for a
W. Bush nominated two bankers, posed by 30 senators—18 Re- odd person out. Sen. Richard Thus Mr. Powell was nomi- second term, as part of a pack-
Larry Klane and Elizabeth Duke, publicans, 11 Democrats and an Shelby (R., Ala.), then the rank- lier rejections of Messrs. Klane nated to the Fed alongside Mr. age with two other Fed board
to the Fed board of governors. independent—in the Demo- ing minority member of the and Kroszner. Stein in late 2011. But in May candidates. Mr. Powell was con-
The Senate Banking Committee, cratic-controlled Senate. banking committee, led the op- The Obama White House hit 2012, with a presidential elec- firmed with 67 yeses by a Sen-
then led by Connecticut Demo- The vacancies left from Mr. position, smarting over the ear- upon the idea, in the summer of tion nearing and Democrats ate with a Democratic majority.
CORRECTIONS
STORES area mall on Thanksgiving with
just one shopping bag. The duo
have made going to the mall on
Thanksgiving night a tradition,
that tracks its prices, Mr. Hari-
haran said. Amazon often kicks
price-tracking technology off
its site to prioritize customers
AMPLIFICATIONS
Continued from Page One even though both do nearly all when traffic surges. An Amazon
fer buying immediately or are of their shopping year-round spokeswoman said the com- Hewlett Packard Enterprise
unprofitable to ship, Mr. Foran on Amazon and Google Express. pany hadn’t made changes to Co. named Antonio Neri presi-
said. “Going to the mall is very its practices regarding price- dent in June. A Business & Fi-
THANK YOURSELF In stores, “is [Black Friday] rare for us now,” Ms. Rao said. tracking bots. nance article on Wednesday in-
the mayhem that it might have In-store sales still account Amazon also tried to create correctly said the move
SALE
been eight or 10 years ago?” for about 90% of retail pur- some holiday store frenzy. Af- occurred in July.
Mr. Foran said on Thanksgiv- chases, according to the U.S. ter purchasing grocer Whole
ing. “I think that world is Census Bureau, but the balance Foods earlier this year, Amazon Readers can alert The Wall Street
Journal to any errors in news articles
gone.” is shifting fast. Adobe said $7.9 offered a discount on turkeys, by emailing wsjcontact@wsj.com or
ShopperTrak, another firm billion worth of merchandise plus an extra markdown for by calling 888-410-2667.
that measures foot traffic to members of Prime. The online
traditional stores, found that giant also used more than 100
THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
DESIGNER COLLECTIONS
visits declined a combined 1.6%
on Thanksgiving and Black Fri-
In-store sales still of its 470 Whole Foods stores
to sell its discounted gadgets. (USPS 664-880)
ARE UP TO day from a year earlier. While account for about Amazon has an advantage as
(Eastern Edition ISSN 0099-9660)
(Central Edition ISSN 1092-0935)
most big chains still opened on
90% of retail online sales rise. More than (Western Edition ISSN 0193-2241)
40%FF
Editorial and publication headquarters:
Thanksgiving evening, some re- 50% of online product searches
purchases.
1211 Avenue of the Americas,
tailers adjusted their hours af- start with the site. It also com- New York, N.Y. 10036
ter discovering that the extra manded an average of about 42 Published daily except Sundays and general
legal holidays. Periodicals postage paid at
hours didn’t necessarily lift cents of every dollar spent on-
* overall holiday sales. Target line through October, compared
New York, N.Y., and other mailing offices.
Postmaster:
Corp. closed its stores from was purchased online on Thurs- with nearly 2 cents at Wal- Send address changes to The Wall Street
Journal, 200 Burnett Rd., Chicopee, MA 01020.
midnight Thanksgiving until re- day and Friday, and expects Cy- Mart, according to Slice Intelli- All Advertising published in The Wall Street
opening at 6 a.m. on Black Fri- ber Monday to be the largest gence, which tracks a panel of Journal is subject to the applicable rate card,
copies of which are available from the
day. online shopping day in history, more than 5 million U.S. shop- Advertising Services Department, Dow Jones
Rosa Hilburn, 58, was among with sales up nearly 17% to $6.6 pers. & Co. Inc., 1211 Avenue of the Americas, New
the first people inside a Target billion. Madison Lennon of Virginia York, N.Y. 10036. The Journal reserves the right
not to accept an advertiser’s order. Only
in Houston on Black Friday Wal-Mart has added tens of Beach, Va., headed to her publication of an advertisement shall constitute
morning, but she was in and millions of products to its web- nearby Wal-Mart on Friday af- final acceptance of the advertiser’s order.
out in minutes with only a site over the past year, so head- ternoon to load up on DVDs Letters to the Editor:
B A R N E Y S.C O M NE W YORK B E V E R LY H I L L S SAN FRANCISCO
Fax: 212-416-2891; email: wsj.ltrs@wsj.com
CHICAGO BOSTON L AS VEGAS PHILADELPHIA S E AT T L E small bag of loot—several ing into the holiday shopping from the discount bins. But
F O R I N S I D E R FA S H I O N A C C E S S : T H E W I N D O W. B A R N E Y S . C O M shirts and a Garth Brooks al- period around 75% of the most first the 24-year-old, who NEED ASSISTANCE WITH
bum for her husband. frequently purchased toys were works at a movie theater, YOUR SUBSCRIPTION?
Ms. Hilburn said she was on walmart.com, the highest checked Amazon’s prices. By web: customercenter.wsj.com;
“really shocked” there weren’t percentage of a traditional re- Most were priced similarly By email: wsjsupport@wsj.com
By phone: 1-800-JOURNAL (1-800-568-7625);
more people at the store but tailer, said Guru Hariharan, or weren’t available, she said. Or by live chat at wsj.com/livechat
attributed it to the changing chief executive of Boomerang, So she decided to head to Wal-
times. “Most people do it on- an e-commerce performance Mart to “see if they have them REPRINTS & LICENSING
line now like the millennials,” firm that studies pricing and for a cheaper deal,” she said.
By email: customreprints@dowjones.com
she said. “But I still like to see other metrics. “And if not, I’ll come home and By phone: 1-800-843-0008
and touch things.” Meanwhile, Amazon made it buy it on Amazon.”
*Up to 40 percent off regular prices on select clothing, shoes, and Al Rao, 44, and her sister-in- harder for other retailers to —Miguel Bustillo
accessories for women, men, and children, as well as gifts for the home. GOT A TIP FOR US?
Specific exclusions apply. See store associate for details.
law Sunanda Dugar, 43, were match its prices, more fre- and Julie Jargon SUBMIT IT AT WSJ.COM/TIPS
walking through a Los Angeles- quently blocking technology contributed to this article.
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THE WALL STREET JOURNAL. Monday, November 27, 2017 | A3
U.S. NEWS
©T&CO. 2017
JUSTIN SULLIVAN/GETTY IMAGES
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U.S. NEWS
blow to the Republican Mr. Trump’s comments In his Sunday tweets, Mr. ahead of the Dec. 12 vote.
agenda, while not explicitly echoed statements he made Trump also tried to temper the Republican senators said on
saying he backed GOP nominee last week, when he said Mr. appearance of a personal in- Sunday that the Moore candi-
Roy Moore, who faces allega- Jones, a former U.S. attorney, vestment in Mr. Moore, noting dacy wasn’t helping the GOP
tions of sexual misconduct was “terrible” on various polit- that he supported Sen. Luther agenda.
with teenagers decades ago. ical issues. As in the most re- Strange, Mr. Moore’s GOP pri- “It is pretty clear to me that
“The last thing we need in cent comments, he didn’t di- mary opponent, in the race. the best thing that Roy Moore
Alabama and the U.S. Senate is rectly say he supported Mr. Mr. Strange was named to the could do for the country is to Rep. John Conyers, shown in 2015, joined Congress in 1965.
a Schumer/Pelosi puppet,” Mr. Moore, and when asked about seat when Jeff Sessions be- move on,” Sen. Tim Scott (R.,
Trump said on Sunday on Twit-
ter, referencing Democratic
leaders Sen. Chuck Schumer of
the accusations against the
candidate, he pointed to Mr.
Moore’s denials.
came attorney general. He lost
the primary to Mr. Moore.
The Alabama race has cre-
S.C.) said on ABC. “In my opin-
ion, and in the opinion of
many Republicans and conser- Conyers to Leave
Committee Post
New York and Rep. Nancy Pelosi Sebastian Kitchen, a Jones ated a headache for GOP lead- vatives in the Senate, it is time
of California. “Jones would be a spokesman, said: “Doug Jones ers. Republicans hold a narrow for us to turn the page, be-
disaster!” said Mr. Trump, cit- is continuing to focus on find- 52-48 advantage in the Senate, cause it is not about partisan
ing border security, crime and ing common ground and get- and a loss of the seat would politics.”
BY KRISTINA PETERSON ing him the longest-serving
current House member.
acting director of the agency called the CFPB a “sad, sick against him. resign from the House, Mrs.
under a provision in the Dodd- joke,” and has called for an “I have come to believe that Pelosi said: “He will do the
Frank financial law, which cre- overhaul of the agency, includ- my presence as Ranking Mem- right thing in terms of what he
ated the CFPB. Mr. Trump’s ap- ing curtailing its budget. Other ber on the [Judiciary] Com- knows about his situation.
pointment of Mr. Mulvaney, a possible actions include delay- mittee would not serve these That he’s entitled to due pro-
harsh critic of the CFPB, is ing the enactment of a recently efforts while the Ethics Com- cess. But women are entitled
based on the Federal Vacancies issued rule on payday lending, mittee investigation is pend- to due process as well.”
Reform Act, which sets rules amending a 2013 mortgage ing,” Mr. Conyers, of Michigan, In a separate statement, she
for vacant government agency rule that tightened underwrit- said in a statement. “I cannot said there would be conse-
positions and gives the presi- ing standards, and reassessing in good conscience allow these quences for anyone found to
dent authority to appoint an pending lawsuits against com- charges to undermine my col- have sexually harassed others.
acting director. panies such as student-loan leagues in the Democratic Cau- Last week, the House Ethics
Calling herself the “rightful Mick Mulvaney is the president’s pick to be CFPB acting director. servicer Navient Corp. cus.” Committee said it had begun
acting director” of the bureau, Mr. Mulvaney said in a Rep. Jerrold Nadler of New investigating and would gather
Ms. English is seeking a judg- also released a memo from was created in the wake of the statement Friday that “Ameri- York will take over as the com- more information about the
ment and a temporary re- CFPB General Counsel Mary financial crisis. Democrat Eliz- cans deserve a CFPB that seeks mittee’s top Democrat. Conyers allegations. The com-
straining order to prevent Mr. McLeod in which she advised abeth Warren, now a leading to protect them while ensuring Mr. Conyers acknowledged mittee said it wouldn’t make
Mulvaney from becoming in- senior CFPB officials to “act critic of Wall Street in the Sen- free and fair markets for all last week that he settled a further public statements
terim CFPB chief. consistently with the under- ate, was the brain behind the consumers.” wrongful-dismissal claim in pending its initial review.
“Ms. English has a clear le- standing that Director Mulva- agency’s birth. Many of the On Saturday, Mr. Trump 2015 involving a former female On congressional commit-
gal entitlement to the position ney is the acting director of staff joined the agency as en- called the Obama-era leader- employee, but he denied alle- tees, the ranking member typi-
of acting director of the CFPB,” the CFPB.” The memo by Ms. thusiastic supporters of its ship of the agency a “total di- gations of sexual harassment. cally works closely with a
the lawsuit said. “The presi- McLeod, who was hired by Mr. mission. saster,” adding that financial He again denied the allega- panel’s chairman in crafting
dent’s purported or intended Cordray, was dated Saturday. Until the lawsuit was filed, institutions “have been devas- tions on Sunday. any bipartisan legislation, and
appointment of defendant Mul- In a memo issued on Satur- CFPB officials had remained si- tated and unable to properly Mr. Conyers said he settled during committee hearings can
vaney as acting director of the day, the Justice Department lent since Mr. Cordray’s an- serve the public.” the complaint to avoid litiga- often make comments or ask
CFPB is unlawful.” argued the Federal Vacancies nouncement Friday on his res- The White House says Mr. tion. He added he would coop- questions before other law-
Ms. English wants the court Reform Act gives the president Trump will eventually nomi- erate with any further investi- makers. Mr. Conyers was
to decide that the Federal Va- power for “temporarily autho- nate his own choice for the gation in the House. chairman of the panel while
cancies Reform Act doesn’t rizing an acting official to per- next permanent director of the “I deny these allegations, Democrats controlled the
control the appointment of a form the functions and duties”
The 2010 Dodd- CFPB, who then needs to be many of which were raised by House from 2007 to 2011.
temporary CFPB director and of the CFPB’s director. The de- Frank Act created the confirmed by a simple majority documents reportedly paid for Speaking Sunday on ABC,
block any temporary Trump partment acknowledged that in the Senate. by a partisan alt-right blogger. Rep. Jackie Speier (D., Calif.)
appointment. Dodd-Frank permits a properly
agency in the wake of Financial industry experts I very much look forward to said Mr. Conyers should resign
Deepak Gupta, a former appointed deputy to serve as the financial crisis. expressed alarm at the uncer- vindicating myself and my from Congress if an investiga-
CFPB lawyer who has sued the temporary director, but that it tainty created by the fight. family before the House Com- tion reveals the sexual-miscon-
Trump administration previ- “doesn’t displace the presi- “If there has been one con- mittee on Ethics,” Mr. Conyers duct allegations to be true.
ously, is the lead attorney rep- dent’s authority under the Va- sistent criticism of the CFPB, said in the statement Sunday. “The Ethics Committee
resenting Ms. English. cancies Reform Act” to appoint ignation and Ms. English’s it’s a lack of predictability, and The allegations were first re- needs to move very
In a written statement, an acting director. appointment. Agency spokes- we are now left with the great- ported by BuzzFeed, which swiftly.…Staff up if necessary
White House spokeswoman Alan Kaplinsky, a Ballard men didn’t respond to repeated est uncertainty since the bu- said it received the documents to determine whether or not
Sarah Sanders said, “The ad- Spahr lawyer critical of the requests for comment. Neither reau was established,” said Ben from Mike Cernovich, a social- those allegations are accurate.
ministration is aware of the CFPB, said that “chaos will en- Ms. English nor Mr. Cordray Olson, a Buckley Sandler law- media personality who is a And if they’re accurate, I do
suit filed this evening by dep- sue at the CFPB.” could be reached for comment. yer and a former CFPB official self-described “American na- believe that Congressman Con-
uty director English. However The unfolding drama is the The president has promised who advises financial compa- tionalist,” and independently yers should step down,” she
the law is clear: Director Mul- latest twist for the CFPB, to install a more business- nies. confirmed their authenticity. said.
vaney is the acting director of which has been mired in parti- friendly leadership at the na- —Ian Talley Mr. Conyers, 88 years old, —Sharon Nunn
the CFPB.” The White House san battles since the agency tion’s regulatory agencies. contributed to this article. joined Congress in 1965, mak- contributed to this article.
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THE WALL STREET JOURNAL. * * * * * * Monday, November 27, 2017 | A5
WORLD NEWS
Pakistani Official Quits to End Standoff
Law minister resigns change the oath members of
Parliament take to swear Mu-
in an agreement with hammad was the final
Islamist activists who prophet.
The government had called
had clashed with police in the army on Saturday to
help restore order as demon-
BY SAEED SHAH strators clashed with police
and paramilitary forces, but on
ISLAMABAD, Pakistan—The Sunday, the military called for
country’s law minister re- a peaceful solution.
signed on Monday, in an With the failed operation,
agreement with religious ac- the government was forced
tivists to end three weeks of back into talks with the pro-
demonstrations that shook an testers. Interior Minister Ah-
already fragile government, san Iqbal on Sunday said the
the state broadcaster and the government had acted in re-
protesters said. sponse to an order from the
Around 2,000 protesters Islamabad High Court to clear
WORLD NEWS
Overcapacity
Greek islands are straining as they host far more people than facilities were designed to hold.
Monthly arrivals in Greece Migrants and refugees currently on the islands
compared with facilities’ capacity
5,000 Through Nov. 23
2,649 Lesbos
4,000 Chios Capacity
3,000 Samos
2,000 Kos
1,000 Leros
0 Other
2016 ’17 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000
Sources: UNHCR (arrivals through October); Greek Migration Ministry (November arrivals, people, capacity) THE WALL STREET JOURNAL.
Stuck in Greece, Migrants EIRINI VOURLOUMIS FOR THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
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THE WALL STREET JOURNAL. * * * * Monday, November 27, 2017 | A7
WORLD NEWS
Your full
That culture has left little
room for conscientious objec- ticipate a determination by his brother Hyeon-woo was
tion. The country imprisons the Constitutional Court on found not guilty by a different
more young men for refusing the whether to recognize consci- judge in the same court.
retirement picture.
draft than the rest of the world entious objection as a right. “I thought I’d also go to
combined, according to Amnesty While no acquittal has yet prison like my brother,”
International, which said in a been upheld by the Supreme Hyeon-woo, a physical thera-
February report that about 400 Court, the shift has fueled pist, said. “My brother later
In one place.
were behind bars last year. hopes—and dread—that the joked about how I’d left him
Women are exempt from service. government may be poised to behind when I visited him.”
The draft has made South Ko- scrap prison sentences for ob- Three bills on alternative
rea a garrison state, said Park jectors. service are pending at the Na-
Min-young, a culture critic. Caught in the middle are tional Assembly that would
“Military culture seeps into people like Kim Hyeon-woo give young men the option of
companies, schools and personal and Kim Sun-woo, 23-year-old working with the disabled or
relationships here,” he said. twins from the port city of the elderly in social-welfare When you plan for retirement with Fidelity,
In recent months, though, a Busan. Like most conscien- facilities, or conducting disas- you’ll have instant access to all your retirement
judicial rift over the subject tious objectors in South Korea, ter-relief work, instead of savings details and goals, including:
has begun to play out in lower the Kims are Jehovah’s Wit- serving in the military.
courts here, setting up a de- nesses, who refused military “Introduction of alternative
• How much you may need in retirement
bate over what many see as a service because it conflicted military service should be
bedrock of Korean society. with their religious beliefs. carefully scrutinized in consid- • How much you’re on track to have
Courts first ruled in favor Last December, Kim Sun- eration of public consensus on
• How retirement fits with all your other
of objectors in 2004, but the woo was found guilty and the issue,” said a spokesman
number of acquittals has jailed for 1.5 years. Four days at the presidential Blue House. savings and investing goals
soared this year as judges an- after Sun-woo’s imprisonment, The proportion of South • Steps you can take to help strengthen
Koreans in favor of alternative your plan
service rose to 46.1% last year
South Korea's Objectors from 10.2% in 2005, according It’s your retirement. Know where you stand.
South Korea has sent thousands of young men to prison over the to a survey conducted by the
years for refusing military service, but the country's lower courts country’s National Human
have been acquitting some conscientious objectors of late. Rights Commission.
Many oppose changing the
Conscientious objection cases* draft, saying military duty
Acquittals Convictions must come first. “The constitu-
40 1,000 2016: Many cases left tion stipulates national defense
2017: 39 pending in anticipation as a duty. If refusing to serve
as of Nov. 17 of new ruling in the military is conscientious,
30 750 800.FIDELITY | Fidelity.com
is the constitution then uncon-
scientious?” a conservative IMPORTANT: The projections or other information generated by the Planning & Guidance Center’s
20 500 lawmaker, Chung Jin-suk, told Retirement Analysis regarding the likelihood of various investment outcomes are hypothetical in
2004: First a recent parliamentary audit. nature, do not reflect actual investment results, and are not guarantees of future results. Your results
10 ruling in favor 250 Shin Taek-soo, 27, who may vary with each use and over time.
of objectors completed his military stint in
2011, said alternative service Investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.
0 0 would only work if the service Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC, Member NYSE, SIPC, 900 Salem Street, Smithfield, RI 02917
2004 ’10 ’15 2004 ’10 ’15 period were longer than that
© 2017 FMR LLC. All rights reserved. 812684.1.0
*Doesn’t include those who objected for nonreligious reasons, which experts say amounts to
for military service. “Other-
four to five cases a year. wise, people will flock to do
Source: Jehovah's Witnesses THE WALL STREET JOURNAL. alternative service,” he said.
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A8 | Monday, November 27, 2017 THE WALL STREET JOURNAL.
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THE WALL STREET JOURNAL. * * * * * Monday, November 27, 2017 | A9
National Guard Maj. Gen. who will be elected on Dec. 7 in saying he opposed continued
Manuel Quevedo will be the the remaining parts of the coun- maintenance work on the coun-
new energy minister and pres- try, will be able to name their try’s railways on the Sabbath,
ident of state-run Petróleos states, draft provincial laws and when all labor is strictly prohib-
de Venezuela SA, known as choose local leaders. ited by Jewish law.
PdVSA, which accounts for al- —Associated Press Ultra-Orthodox parties have
most all the country’s foreign- provided Mr. Netanyahu with
currency income. State oil company PdVSA has been racked by a corruption probe that has led to jailing of executives. CHINA support to stabilize his coalition,
Gen. Quevedo, who has no while the government carves out
oil-sector experience, takes the Quevedo would spearhead the PdVSA’s output fell a record this month saying he wants to Port Blast Kills Two, large budgets for the minority
reins at PdVSA from Nelson continuing anticorruption cam- 6.2% in October from Septem- restructure the national debt. Injures at Least 30 community. They have in the
Martinez, a U.S.-educated com- paign in an effort to turn ber, a 13th consecutive With three of four Venezue- past threatened to topple coali-
pany veteran who was under- around the company’s fortunes. monthly decline, according to lans saying they want Mr. Ma- An explosion in a port city tion governments by robbing
mined by last week’s arrests of “We’re going for a total re- government figures reported duro out of office, the presi- south of Shanghai killed two them of their majority.
his associates at the firm’s U.S. structuring of PdVSA,” Mr. dent has increasingly relied on people and injured at least 30 Mr. Litzman’s resignation
arm, Citgo Petroleum Corp. Maduro said on Sunday. “It is the military to bolster his others as it knocked down build- could pressure the other two ul-
Another U.S.-educated veteran time for a new oil revolution.” ‘It is time for a power. Retired and active offi- ings and left streets littered tra-Orthodox coalition partners
oilman, Eulogio Del Pino, was But some analysts said they new oil cers now make up almost half with damaged cars and debris, to squeeze concessions from Mr.
fired as the oil minister. saw the appointment as a deci- revolution,’ his cabinet and hold most of the government and news re- Netanyahu to prove to their con-
The appointment follows a sive power grab by Venezuela’s President the top portfolios. ports said. stituents that they respect the
four-month purge at PdVSA military and security officers Nicolás “The military have reached The early Sunday morning ex- Sabbath as much as the former
amid a deepening economic that would only worsen the Maduro said the last frontier of power with plosion struck a riverfront neigh- health minister.
crisis and declining output. country’s economic problems. on Sunday. the appointment of General borhood in Ningbo, one of The prime minister said later
More than 50 company offi- “These are negative Quevedo,” said Rocio San Mi- China’s busiest ports, China’s of- at a government meeting that
cials and contractors have been changes,” said Asdrubal Olive- guel, a Caracas-based security ficial Xinhua News Agency and he regretted Mr. Litzman’s deci-
arrested and jailed in Venezu- ros, director at Caracas-based to the Organization of the Pe- analyst. other outlets reported. Xinhua sion, describing him as “an excel-
ela since August on charges of consultancy Ecoanalitica. troleum Exporting Countries. Venezuela’s economy has said it happened at a factory. A lent health minister.”
alleged corruption, including “You’re militarizing the indus- The company is teetering on contracted nearly 30% since police statement said the cause —Associated Press
most top Citgo executives. try and generating more uncer- defaulting on about $30 billion 2016, according to the Interna-
Mr. Maduro said Gen. tainty” for investors, he said. of its bonds, with Mr. Maduro tional Monetary Fund.
REUTERS
saying it was winning. the polls say and that is what based largely on a drop in vio- Turnout appeared to be
A poll released by network the results we are seeing from lence in the impoverished coun- heavy, with relatively minor
Televicentro gave 49-year-old the count are saying,” Mr. Her- try, whose homicide rate was irregularities reported. Rescue workers comb the site of an explosion in Ningbo, China.
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graduation. Along with his support, Alina’s “no excuses”
attitude has earned her a scholarship to her dream college.
There are millions of at-risk kids like Alina who need help
breaking barriers to stay in school and succeed in life.
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IN DEPTH
videos poking fun at consumer For Beats and others; reality television—Gen Z favors for a selfie. “My bosses are a
culture and trends that run on comical bits playing on her followers DIY “creators” like Ms. Koshy, bunch of 11-year-olds,” she says.
her two YouTube channels, popular characters and Polished portraits with who launch themselves on so- She is petite, about the size
which total 17.5 million sub- obsessive fans funny captions, ad placements cial media. In contrast to the of the kids who recognize her
scribers. obviously manufactured reality in the store, and wears black
Her Twitter feed has 1.6 mil- programs, Gen Z insists on au- tights, a mini backpack and a
lion followers, and 14.5 million wear on Instagram. She also her video. The 32,000 com- She got her start as a Hous- thenticity, or the idea that peo- T-shirt that reads “Clickbait,”
track her Instagram. Her videos creates stand-alone ads, such as ments on the episode included, ton high schooler on Vine, the ple stay true to the personality from a merchandise line sold
on Snapchat average about two the rap video she made for “i broke the replay button” and now-defunct app for looping they present online. by Mr. Dobrik.
million views each. Last month, Procter & Gamble Co.’s Always “i’ve watched this video about six-second videos, where she Ms. Koshy often uses a self- Ms. Koshy has proven to be
she began appearing as a corre- pads, and Snapchat clips pro- 15 times.” found a following for sight gags mocking style to unpack the ev- safe territory for established
spondent on a reboot of MTV’s moting movie snack deals for Ms. Koshy’s share of You- that often involved her mug- eryday feelings that make us entertainment companies and
music video countdown show AMC Theatres. Tube ad revenue ranges from ging with rubbery facial expres- embarrassed or insecure. In a advertisers who have fled from
“TRL,” and she stars in a teen- In the Beats ads, she is seen about $10,000 to $15,000 a sions. recent video on YouTube titled edgier online content after get-
horror TV series that recently working on one of her home- month for each of the new vid- She switched to YouTube to “Facing My Anxiety,” she makes ting burned in recent months.
aired its second season on made videos, dressed up as her eos she posts weekly, she says. create more elaborate—and a fake phone call to avoid a ca- Prominent brands including
Hulu. Jet character, and getting That doesn’t include the ad monetizable—sketches. With sual encounter and appears Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Star-
Her comedy is heavy on self- chased by fans. When the ad money accumulated by her her parents’ blessing, she alongside herself to voice a bucks Corp. pulled some adver-
deprecation, slapstick and word- premiered on MTV, it cut di- older videos, or the typically dropped out of college at 19, panicked inner monologue. tising from YouTube in droves
play, more goofy than snarky. rectly to Ms. Koshy running five-figure sums she receives moved to Los Angeles and “Time to go home and over- after reports of ads appearing
She has a soft spot for potty onto the set of “TRL.” for creating sponsored clips. signed with Creative Artists think this interaction,” she says. alongside offensive videos, in-
jokes, but overall her work is One reason her sketches She adapts her style to mul- Agency, the Hollywood talent cluding clips uploaded by ex-
PG—an attraction for advertis- work for advertisers is the re- tiple platforms. Her YouTube firm. tremist groups. As “brand
ers, who have been burned by
offensive content on YouTube
play factor. In the six-minute 73
Questions parody video, Ms.
channel is the flagship for her
weekly “Wednezzzdays With
She competes in an online
ecosystem that has become
Gen Z—born after safety” became the buzzword
for advertisers, YouTube made
and social media. Among her Koshy squeezed in dozens of Lizzza” videos, which take her more varied in recent years, about 1996—favors drastic changes to the auto-
YouTube peers, she says, “I’m
the only kind of clean one.”
puns and double meanings, in
part to encourage easily dis-
three or four days to write,
shoot and edit. She uses a sec-
with videogamers, musicians,
makeup artists and assorted
irreverent, DIY stars mated advertising system that
allows YouTubers to monetize
She has worked paid product tracted viewers to re-watch. ond YouTube channel for more “vloggers,” a term for anyone seen as ‘authentic.’ their videos. Ads fell dramati-
placements for Nike Inc. into The higher the view count, the improvisational material, often who trains a camera on them- cally on videos flagged by You-
her routines on YouTube, and more money she earns from the featuring fellow creators such selves, typically to document Tube for having potentially of-
posed in Calvin Klein under- advertisements that play before as David Dobrik, Ms. Koshy’s their lives, do stunts or orches- fensive language or imagery.
boyfriend. trate pranks. She says being perceived as The so-called adpocalypse
Instagram is for polished Star vloggers include Mr. Do- “ethnically ambiguous” helps stung the earnings of many
Screens of Choice portraits of herself—an image brik, who has 8.8 million sub- her broaden her Gen Z audi- YouTube creators, but Ms. Ko-
Gen Z prefers smartphones and tablets and accesses more she often punctures with a scribers and, in a recent video, ence, which is more ethnically shy didn’t lose the 15- and 30-
entertainment on those devices. Technology ownership by generation: scatological joke at her own persuaded a friend’s mother to and racially diverse than previ- second ads that play before her
expense in the caption. She shock him with a stun gun. ous generations. Her father, a videos.
Generation Z Millennials Generation X Baby boomers
uses Snapchat to confess when More than a decade after petroleum executive, moved to YouTube is banking on her
100% she is blowing her Wednesday YouTube helped create a new the U.S. from India as a teen, comedy skills and marketabil-
video deadline, or to deliver category of fame, digital cre- and her mother, a yoga instruc- ity with an eight-episode sit-
the occasional serious mes- ators now anchor the entertain- tor, is white. A self-described com called “Liza on Demand”
75 sage, like her recent rant ment landscape for young audi- “little brown girl,” she stands for its YouTube Red subscrip-
about an Uber driver who sug- ences. CAA uses a data team to out in YouTube’s predominantly tion service, to premiere in
gested that Ms. Koshy find a track emerging online stars and white upper echelon of stars. 2018. In the scripted series,
50 rich man to pay her bills. evaluates their potential for In a video titled “Mixed Kid Ms. Koshy plays a fictional
Each app, she says, “is a dif- long-term earning through, for Problems,” she recalls bouncing character living with room-
ferent diary of me.” example, Hollywood roles, book among racial groups and con- mates getting by in the gig
Twitter is the only feed that deals and live events. CAA re- stantly fielding queries about economy, plunging into odd
25
she supplies grudgingly. “I wish cently signed Tanner Braun- her ethnic background. jobs and random tasks for pay.
I could tweet the one-liners gardt, a 17-year-old from Kansas “Now you may not relate if MTV is hoping that by add-
that I come up with for You- whose specialty is trampoline you’re just a white girl watch- ing Ms. Koshy and other social
0
Tube, but the bosses will call acrobatics. The firm has bro- ing this, or a just a black guy media stars to its “TRL” reboot
Smartphone Tablet DVD Video game Subscription you out for recycling content,” kered a clothing deal for him, watching this,” she says in the it can make an influential TV
console video on she says, referring to her fans, along with endorsements and a video. “But you two should program from the 2000s, and
demand
who keep track of everything tour of indoor trampoline parks. meet up, make a mixed baby the network itself, relevant to a
Source: Nielsen Total Audience Report, 1Q 2017 THE WALL STREET JOURNAL. she does online. Most of the creators are and have him subscribe to my new generation of young people.
retirement accounts, where the He said he won’t sell the proof ple answer phones. An online he invested in regular gold bul-
shiny gold and silver coins have coins without reciting an exten- store, with a pop-up chat win- lion.
performed like lead sinkers. sive disclaimer. dow, adorns the website. Cus- Most buyers are better off
Paul Rumage, a 64-year-old Marvin E. Johnson, 61, of Ka- tomers can sign up to have an- not expecting any profits from
retired software engineer from nawha, Iowa, said American nual proof sets charged to their U.S. proof coinage, experts say.
Michigan, said he was looking Bullion Inc. sold him 930 Amer- credit cards. Some collectors say they get joy
for a haven from stocks for his ican Eagle silver proof coins for Mint profits on gold Eagle simply by possessing the coins.
individual retirement account his retirement account. He paid proofs hit nearly 18% last year. The American Eagle proof, a
in 2013. A private dealer per- the equivalent of nearly 2 1/2 Net profits on the Silver Eagle double-struck coin colored with
suaded him to buy 45 four-coin times the market price of silver. proofs were even better, reach- a special dye, has been de-
sets of American Eagle gold Then he sued when he saw his ing about 41% last year. Silver proof coins from the U.S. Mint facility in West Point, N.Y. scribed as the most beautiful
proofs, and 979 ounces of silver investment drop like a rock. The Mint transfers its profits coin ever made. Plus, “you get a
Eagle proofs, records show. “He bought them at a pre- to the Treasury’s General Fund. Before the ban, said Ken tion to the rule, making them a certificate” and “a little leather
The 1,135-coin treasure of mium where I don’t think he’d “We are not in it to make Swab, former counsel for a favorite for coin dealers pitch- box,” said Rick Boss of Ohio, a
gold and silver cost him ever make a profit,” said money,” said Kristie McNally, House subcommittee on con- ing a “Gold IRA” to retirees. proof-coin collector and retired
$308,000, which included a 6% Thomas Reavely, Mr. Johnson’s the Mint’s chief financial officer. sumer affairs and coinage, in- Balint Mezei, a self-em- AT&T engineer. “You’re getting
commission for the broker. Less lawyer and coin collector. Mint officials said they vestors could keep Persian rugs ployed contractor, said he a piece of history.”
than a month later, his IRA Mr. Johnson and American pitch proof coinage as collec- in their living rooms and IRA bought about $50,000 worth of Nonetheless, Jeffrey Chris-
statement valued the coins at Bullion later settled the coin tor’s items, not investments. accounts. U.S. proof coins around 2006 tian, a precious-metals invest-
$212,000. dispute confidentially. Orkan But Congress kept the door “It was perfect,” he said. for his retirement account after ment adviser, said he steers his
“I knew something was Ozkan, American Bullion’s chief open to putting the coins into “You could walk on your tax de- being convinced by a coin clients away: “It’s sort of like
wrong,” Mr. Rumage said. executive, said it wasn’t the retirement account investments duction every day.” dealer they would be safer from buying a car and driving it off
After filing a lawsuit against company’s fault. Mr. Johnson, a few years after banning other Lawmakers allowed Ameri- the government’s hands than the parking lot. It will have an
the dealer and broker, he sold he said, paid the going rate: collectible items in 1981. can Eagle proofs as an excep- regular bullion. immediate depreciation.”
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THE WALL STREET JOURNAL. * * NY Monday, November 27, 2017 | A10A
ing to a spokesman for the Met- to be affected. “New Yorkers deserve a safe Lever said the state is commit-
ropolitan Transportation Au- and reliable transit system. The ted to improving the transit
thority. Officials said they didn’t first step towards that starts system and has allocated $8.4
expect the incident to af- with a fully funded subway ac- billion in capital money and half
fect Monday’s commute. trapped underground in an F tion plan, which should be of the $836 million in funding
But transit advocates and train for more than 40 minutes funded by returning the $456 for the subway stabilization
others said the episode was a in June without air condition- million the state diverted from plan. “While we take action to
grim reflection of the state of ing, improving the subway sys- our subways and buses,” Austin meet the transit challenge, the
TOUGH LOSS: Kaelin Clay avoided Lac Edwards as he ran back New York City’s overstressed tem emerged as possibly the Finan, a de Blasio spokesman, city refuses to do the same at
his punt for a touchdown at MetLife Stadium on Sunday. subway system, which is strug- city’s hottest political issue in said in an email. “Instead of the expense of the New York-
gling to keep up with record the Nov. 7 election. spending our dollars on upstate ers,” she said in an email.
150,000
Meanwhile, a joint venture from Merck & Co. in 2012. ity with the comedians. can cross-market themselves. late show or another night
of Time Equities Inc. and Berg- Since then, the joint venture Audiences have “more of an The restaurant encourages cus- that week,” he said.
man Real Estate Group is com- has signed large leases with idea of who they’re coming to tomers to head downstairs by What is happening today
pleting a $4.5 million overhaul law firms Lowenstein Sandler see,” said Jim Norton, a vet- providing a sneak peek with a recalls a few decades ago,
of a three-building Parsippany LLP and Connell Foley LLP. eran stand-up and a host on live feed of shows from the Yearly attendance at the comedy when stand-up comedy first
campus. Among the tenant Rents for conventional office satellite service SiriusXM. club. The club tries to get pa- club Carolines on Broadway went mainstream and clubs
perks are a massage room, bi- buildings were in the low $20s, Mr. Norton appeared at the trons to hang out at the restau- flourished. That led to an
cycle-share program and an art but after the overhaul of the 2017 New York Comedy Festi- rant after performances with overexpansion, and the nation-
studio with local artists provid- Roseland property, the part- val earlier this month. The 14- the offer of a free mini-cocktail. wide comedy boom went bust
ing classes. ners now expect to get above year-old festival, widely con- West Side Comedy Club “We find that it alienates by the mid-1990s.
Occupancy has risen from $30 a square foot, said Michael sidered the city’s premier isn’t alone in thinking outside our patrons,” said David Kimo- Now, there is hope that the
50% to 60% since the venture Seeve, president of Mountain annual comedy showcase, has the box. At Q.E.D., a three- witz, one of the owners of the boom will stick. As the world
bought the 280,000-square- Development. The company experienced growth as well. It year-old club in the Astoria Stand comedy club in Manhat- becomes a more unsettling
foot office park last year, said has launched a similar strategy now encompasses 100-plus neighborhood of Queens, the tan’s Gramercy Park neighbor- place, the comedy club becomes
Aaron P. Medeiros, Time Equi- at 5 Garret Mountain Plaza in shows, more than three times space is used during the day hood and the Standing Room a haven of sorts, insiders say.
ties director of acquisitions and Woodland Park, a 102,000- the number in its early years. for classes in everything from in Long Island City, Queens. “It’s one of the last places
policy. square-foot building where Comedy clubs also have embroidery to origami. Mr. Kimowitz said ditching where people tell the truth,”
—Keiko Morris plans call for transforming the tweaked their business models “There are so many creative minimums puts the onus on said Mr. Ashe of West Side
rooftop into an outdoor lounge. from the traditional free-stand- people in the neighborhood, the clubs to deliver more ap- Comedy Club.
For personal non-commercial use only. Do not edit or alter. Reproductions not permitted.
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A10B | Monday, November 27, 2017 NY * * THE WALL STREET JOURNAL.
GREATER NEW
YORK WATCH
NEW YORK STATE
Gun Is Discharged
Into Floor of Mall
A crowded mall in Hudson
Valley was evacuated Sunday af-
CLOCKWISE FROM LEFT: CLAUDIO PAPAPIETRO FOR WSJ; MARK KAUZLARICH FOR WSJ (2)
ter a gun discharged into the
floor, causing minor injuries to
two bystanders, police said.
The gun went off shortly af-
ter 3 p.m. at the Galleria at Crys-
tal Run in Middletown, about 70
miles north of Midtown Manhat-
tan. Video posted on social me-
dia showed armed police in tac-
tical gear running down a
corridor of the mall while shop-
pers ran in the other direction.
Chief Robert Hertman of the
Wallkill Police Department said
officers were still seeking the
As Pasta Comes
hurt were being treated for mi-
nor lacerations. Chief Hertman
said it was unclear how they
To Fast Casual
were injured.
—Associated Press Chef Mark Ladner, left and above left with his staff at Pasta
Flyer in Greenwich Village. Above, spaghetto alla vodka with
NEW JERSEY meatballs from ePasta, a new restaurant in the Financial District.
Predominantly Black BY JEANETTE SETTEMBRE The gnocchi pesto is $12; the marinara sauce with a side that it’s often overcooked or
Churches Vandalized same dish costs $23 at Allora. salad, and a soda or sparkling mushy, this was super al dente.
It’s spaghetti and meatballs It is no surprise that chefs water. It’s excellent,” Gina Zafran, 29,
Acts of vandalism committed like grandma used to make, with fine-dining backgrounds Sides such as the lasagna of the Upper West Side, said of
at five predominantly black served in the culinary equiva- are looking to cash in on a snack—a deep-fried bar of the fusilli.
churches in northern New Jersey lent of a New York minute. fast-casual future. Sales at cheesy pasta—can be served in Nona’s Italian food is served
are being investigated as possi- Made-to-order pasta dishes quick-service restaurants were under five minutes. in a hip, pink dining room at
ble bias crimes, prosecutors said. such as fettuccine Alfredo and forecast to reach $234 billion Chef Mark Ladner, formerly “We’re not necessarily inter- the Sosta in the Nolita neigh-
Broken windows and dam- rigatoni Bolognese are being in 2017, a 5.3% gain over of Michelin-starred Del Posto, ested in the foodie community. borhood of Manhattan. Insta-
aged exterior signs were discov- churned out at the speed of 2016’s $222 billion, according set out to open the McDonald’s We’re trying to become a nor- gram-obsessed diners hold
ered Saturday at the Morristown burrito-slinging at Chipotle. to the National Restaurant As- of noodles, only healthier, with mal place to normal Americans smartphones up to the neon
Church of Christ in Morris Town- Italian food is having its fast- sociation. Pasta Flyer in Greenwich Vil- who think food is just a meal,” sign blaring “Mangiamo Baby!”
ship and four churches in nearby casual moment. In 2015, Panera Bread raked lage. The space, a former Chi- Mr. Ladner said. above the counter, where zuc-
Morristown—Church of God in After launching upscale red- in more than any other fast-ca- potle, has been transformed On a recent evening, 63- chini noodles can be substi-
Christ for All Saints, Bethel sauce restaurant Allora in Mid- sual restaurant with $4.8 bil- into a terrestrial-inspired din- year-old diner Philip Ashley, tuted for the carb-filled variety.
A.M.E. Church, Calvary Baptist town last year with his father, lion sales in the U.S.; Chipotle ing room with a hanging UFO who lives in the neighborhood, An early adopter of the grab-
Church and Union Baptist Tim Gjonbalaj created a more ranked No. 2 with $4.4 billion, and a black-and-white mural of said: “The pasta and meatballs and-go noodle trend was boxed-
Church. casual noodle concept, ePasta, according to food-service in- Rome. were right on the money.” He pasta brand Barilla. Casa Barilla
The vandalism apparently oc- which is set to open Monday in dustry research firm Tech- Mr. Ladner leads the assem- suggested, however, that pa- restaurant opened in Midtown
curred late Friday or early Satur- Manhattan’s Financial District. nomic Inc. bly line stirring up sauces for trons “may want slightly bigger in 2013, serving pasta, pizza
day, authorities said. It wasn’t Customers order at a marble Shake Shack’s Danny Meyer pasta combos such as fusilli portions.” and salads in a snap. The chain
clear if any of the acts are counter in the open kitchen recently dabbled in grab-and-go with pesto; whole-grain riga- Boiling pasta is easy, but recently expanded to Southern
linked or how many people may from a menu that features Italian with his pizzeria Mar- toni in a meat ragout; creamy serving it perfectly al dente California and to Dubai. Prices
have been involved. dried and fresh pastas including tina in Manhattan’s East Vil- fettuccine Alfredo; and gluten- quickly and consistently is the range from $7.95 to $12.95.
Police have increased the bowls of bowtie-shaped farfalle lage, which also serves meat- free penne. Each are is priced challenge. If the noodles sit out “This is about better ingredi-
number of patrols at the with broccoli rabe and Italian ball subs, salads and rice balls. at $7 to $8. too long, they get soggy. At ents and better foods in the
churches. No arrests have been sausage, or penne in a spicy ar- A number of other quick- For $9.99, customers can get Pasta Flyer, dry pasta is cooked, right portions that happen to
made. rabiata sauce whipped up in service Italian spots are twirl- a full meal of spaghetti and frozen and flash-boiled. be delicious,” said restaurant
—Associated Press minutes with a pasta cooker. ing up pasta, pronto. miniature-size meatballs in “I get pasta a lot and I find consultant Clark Wolf.
LIFE&ARTS
TOYS
MITCH O’CONNELL (ILLUSTRATIONS); PHOTOS CLOCKWISE FROM TOP: SPIN MASTER LTD.; MOOSE TOYS; MGA ENTERTAINMENT
Eric Stewart: One morning in the and Kevin Godley were busy on an-
fall of 1974, my wife, Gloria, and I other song. So Graham Gouldman
were having breakfast at home in and I worked on “I’m Not in Love.”
England. At some point, she said, He came up with masterful chords.
“Why don’t you say you love me so
much any more?” Graham Gouldman: We also needed a
We had been married nine years second eight-bar bridge. All at once,
by then. I said, “Look, if I say that Eric and I came up with, “Oooh,
every day, the words will lose their you’ll wait a long time for me”
meaning, won’t they?” She said, along with the music and chords.
10cc in 1975. From left, Graham Gouldman, Eric Stewart, Kevin Godley and Lol Creme. “No, they won’t.” We left it at that. Please see ANATOMY page A13
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A12 | Monday, November 27, 2017 NY THE WALL STREET JOURNAL.
NATURAL HISTORY
Tuesday December 5, 2017 at 10 am
PREVIEW INQUIRIES
December 1-5 +1 323 899 1443
claudia.florian@bonhams.com
Murder, She Built dunit but whether death is an acci- violence. As the exhibition points
dent, murder or suicide. “Solu-
tions” are not revealed because
the Nutshells are still used for
out, the setting for 17 of the Nut-
shells is the home; victims were
largely women. They are shot in
teaching. But isn’t it strange that bed, hanged in an attic, or dead in
woman born in the Victorian Mid- amounts of decay. But what was in the massacre of an entire fam- a bathtub. Lee put a miniature
BY EDWARD ROTHSTEIN
west to have been so practiced in her motive? ily, the rifle is left in the kitchen, a painting of her home in one Nut-
killing: hanging, stabbing, shoot- Lee was a brilliant eccentric, shell is found in a child’s room, shell, and sometimes used her own
Washington ing, burning. She was obsessive. If heiress to an International Har- and toy chairs on a dresser are wallpaper and furniture for mod-
WE NOW KNOW whodunit. And she left clues it was deliberate: an vester fortune, who was prevented overturned? Or that a woman on a els. In some ways, she was making
with the startling exhibition “Mur- angled pattern in the blood splat- from going to college or pursuing parsonage floor seems a lot more exaggerated self-portraits.
der Is Her Hobby: Frances Glessner ter or crumbled love letters on an a profession by her father. She freshly dead than the maggot-cov- The exhibition, we are con-
Lee and the Nutshell Studies of attic floor. Money was irrelevant; grew up in coddled solitude in a ered meat she was supposedly car- vinced, has it right: She had the
Unexplained Death” at the Renwick she didn’t need any, already pos- granite castle-like home in Chi- rying? means, she had the opportunities
Gallery of the Smithsonian Ameri- sessing millions. Each killing cost cago. It wasn’t until she inherited The writer Erle Stanley Gardner and she also had motives for her
can Art Museum, we now know a her as much as $6,000—the price, her fortune with the death of her became a fan, attended her semi- unexplained crimes.
lot more about how she dunit. The in the 1940s, of a home. father in 1936—when she was in nars, and said she was the only
best forensic minds have scruti- The most peculiar thing is that her late 50s—that she could culti- person who surpassed Perry Ma-
nized the evidence. A serial perp, she executed her plans using a vate her passion, which wasn’t for son in criminal insight; he would Murder Is Her Hobby: Frances
with perhaps 20 murders to her custom ruler that turned every committing murders, but solving have known. She may have been Glessner Lee and the Nutshell
name, Frances Glessner Lee foot into an inch. A 30-inch-high them. the inspiration for Angela Lans- Studies of Unexplained Death
(1878-1962) planned crimes down dining-room table became 2.5 As a child, she had followed bury’s character in the TV series Renwick Gallery at the Smithsonian
to the finest detail: the calendars inches tall. A revolver was an inch Sherlock Holmes and later became “Murder, She Wrote.” She is the American Art Museum, through Jan.
she hung on the walls, the water long. Lee was a miniaturist of a friend of George Burgess subject of a forthcoming documen- 28, 2018
stains she created, a carton la- murder. And these crimes? She Magrath, who studied medicine at tary by Susan Marks (part of
beled “Campbell’s soup” half- staged them inside doll houses. Harvard and became Medical Ex- which appears in the exhibition).
stowed. The dead were bloodied dolls aminer of Suffolk County in Mas- And she inspired episodes of Mr. Rothstein is the Journal’s
It is almost unheard of for a painted to reflect appropriate sachusetts. Lee endowed a profes- “C.S.I.”—a series that evolved out Critic-at-Large.
ANATOMY
Continued from page A11
Mr. Stewart: When Graham and I finished,
Kevin and Lol joined us, and we recorded
our first run-through using a light bossa
nova beat. But during the playback, Kevin
wasn’t happy with the bossa.
Mr. Stewart: It was ingenious. But first we Cathy Redfern at Strawberry Studios in 1974.
had to record the song’s basic rhythm track
and my lead vocal as a guide. sounded harsh. So I changed it to “Be quiet,
On one track, I played the electric piano big boys don’t cry,” which felt softer and
and sang the lead vocal. Graham played more comforting.
rhythm guitar on the second track. On the
third, Kevin used a mini-Moog set to sound Ms. Redfern: I went into the studio with
like a bass drum. Kevin, who was there to steady me and give
Once we recorded the rhythm track, we me a cue. We both put on headphones so we
spent weeks recording our voices and trans- could hear the song. Kevin touched my arm
ferring them onto our recorder. Then the four when it was time to say the words.
of us worked the mixing console’s 24 volume
faders with two hands to create a choir be- Mr. Stewart: At first, Cathy’s delivery wasn’t
hind the rhythm track and my lead vocal. musical enough. We said, “Go softer, go
softer, Cathy. Whisper. Get closer to the
Perfect Holiday Palette
Mr. Creme: The song still needed texture. I mic.” Then she got it. Color-Changing Alexandrite
suggested Graham overdub an eight-bar
bass solo on the first bridge. Next came my Ms. Redfern: Hearing my voice after was sur-
Color-changing stone. Extraordinary rarity. Natural wonder.
piano intro to the bridge. I also suggested real. I couldn’t believe it was me. I was This highly coveted gem exhibits one of nature’s most
we have a female voice whisper, “Get it to- thrilled. fascinating phenomena. The rare 1.94-carat alexandrite
gether.” displays a lovely greenish hue in daylight, and transforms
Mr. Creme: I went out and bought a child’s to a rich burgundy hue when exposed to incandescent light.
Mr. Stewart: At that very moment in our con- plastic toy music box. When you pulled the
versation, Cathy Redfern, the studio’s recep- box’s string, it played the English nursery
Certified by the Gemological Institute of America as a natural
tionist, stuck her head in. She whispered, rhyme, “Boys and Girls Come Out to Play.” alexandrite, it has undergone no treatment or enhancements
“Eric, there’s someone on the phone for I swung the little box over my head be- to achieve its unique color change. Set in 18K yellow gold
you,” and left. Lol said, “That’s it! Let’s get tween the two mics as it played the tune. with Old European-cut diamonds. #30-6079
Cathy to speak the words.” We wound up with an eerie sound, shifting
from one speaker to the other.
Mr. Creme: I went down the hall after Cathy.
When I told her what we wanted, she pro- Mr. Stewart: When we finished the album, I
tested a bit, saying she had never recorded drove Gloria to the studio. The wives of the
anything before. other guys joined us. We turned out the
lights and listened to the whole thing, play-
Cathy Redfern: I was 21 then. I adored the ing it over and over for what seemed like
boys, and they treated me like their sister. hours. Everybody loved it.
When Lol told me their idea, I thought it On the drive home, Gloria asked what
might be a prank. They were always kidding “I’m Not in Love” was about. I told her, “It’s 630 Royal Street, New Orleans, Louisiana • 888-867-9583 • ws@rauantiques.com • rauantiques.com
around. But Lol picked me up and threw me my answer to your question about why I
over his shoulder. In the control room, the didn’t say ‘I love you’ more often.’” Since 1912, M.S. Rau Antiques has specialized in the world’s finest art, antiques and jewelry.
guys were serious. Gloria said the song was so beautiful. Backed by our unprecedented 125% Guarantee, we stand behind each and every piece.
Then she said, “I’d still love if you’d say ‘I
Mr. Creme: But the more I thought about love you’ more often.” From then on, I’ve
that line, the more “Get it together” said ‘I love you’ to Gloria every night.
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A14 | Monday, November 27, 2017 * * THE WALL STREET JOURNAL.
SPORTS
COLLEGE FOOTBALL NFL | By Jason Gay
AUBURN IS
ON A ROLL
Philly Is Feeling Good...and It’s Weird
Yes: I need to spend
the rest of this week
having a full-blown
panic attack about Sat-
urday’s Wisconsin vs.
Ohio State Big Ten
championship—in my nightmares,
Urban Meyer is sitting in my
kitchen in a Buckeyes windbreaker,
cackling, eating all of my Trader
Joe’s animal crackers.
But before my sweaty Badger
anxiety kicks in, let’s address a
handful of NFL topics. (The NFL is
the pro-style football league that
plays on Sundays, Mondays and, I
believe, most Thursdays.)
clinch their playoff spot. host a Super Bowl on its actual had 253 yards receiving versus the that Mr. Khakipants is interested
Alabama doesn’t have another home field. Thanks a lot, Jinxy Bucs, which is more yards than in wearing his khakis on another
chance to strengthen its resume. McJinxFace! But it’s hard to not be the Browns have had in the last 47
advantage could be a sideline. There’s this, however:
Nick Saban’s team will be stuck enthused about these matte Purple seasons combined. handful in the playoffs. Fox’s Jay Glazer reported that a
rooting for two-loss Ohio State to Vikings, especially if you watched number of NFL clubs are enjoying
beat undefeated Wisconsin in the that Turkey Day handling of the Li- 4. Are the Browns going to go the recent Wolverines skid, hoping
Big Ten Conference championship ons (burp!) Case Keenum: Who 0-16? Mmmm, very possi- it would inspire Harbaugh to con-
and two-loss Texas Christian to up- knew? (Besides Case Keenum.) I’m ble…though they do have a Grinch 6. The Cowboys’ star is fading. sider a return to the pro ranks.
set one-loss Oklahoma in the Big 12 going to shut up now because Min- Special Christmas Eve game The wagon wheels appear off in Personally, I don’t like it when tal-
Conference title game. nesota fans are going to get against the Bears. Bears vs. Dallas, now 5-6 after a Thanksgiv- ented coaches leave unfinished
There is no provision in the grouchy. But listen: don’t Airbnb Browns: The perfect way to tell ing home thrashing by the Los business behind—like that old Mi-
sport’s governing documents that your place yet for the first weekend your family: I hate the holidays. Angeles-ish Chargers. Finger ami Dolphins coach, Nicholas Sa-
stipulates Alabama must be in the of February! How would you feel if pointing has commenced; Cow- ban, who fled the NFL to go back
playoff. (We checked.) But any con- the Vikings were in a hometown 5. Grumpy Lobster Boat Captain boys released running back Dar- to the college game, and was
versation about the four best Super Bowl and you had six wea- Bill Belichick Is Scissoring Off His ren McFadden this weekend; and never heard from, ever again.
teams in college football must in- selly Patriots fans sleeping in your Sleeves Again. I don’t know about Jerry Jones disappointingly ap- Whatever happened to Saban?
clude the Crimson Tide. There are guest bedroom, eating Pop-Tarts you, but I don’t like it when Bill pears to have stood down in his I’ve been so focused on America’s
two-loss teams being considered and asking for the Wi-Fi password? wears some uncomfortable, ironed legal battle to turn the NFL last truly great college football
for the fourth playoff spot while Al- Nike pullover like it’s Date Night league office into a Jerry Jones team, the Wisconsin Badgers. And
abama has only one loss. 3. The Atlanta Falcons look like at Panera. I want Belichick to look Original Texas Steakhouse. This my Ohio State panic attack.
Milwaukee 51 45 pc 54 33 c Berlin 41 39 r 45 34 sh Taipei 74 70 c 85 72 s 24 Sniffler’s need and largo 65 Son of The contest answer is STUFFED CRUST. Each
Minneapolis 58 38 pc 46 27 s Brussels 47 36 r 44 34 sh Tokyo 57 49 pc 60 51 c Aphrodite starred entry begins with a separate two-letter
26 Greed or 45 Veggie burger term: RV, GE, GB, SQ, TV, and RU. Alphabetically
Nashville 64 41 s 66 42 s Buenos Aires 74 46 s 72 54 s Toronto 39 31 s 56 39 s
New Orleans 68 50 s 75 60 s Dubai 81 69 s 84 73 s Vancouver 49 42 r 48 40 r gluttony protein 66 Pert stuffed between the letters of each are R(STU)V,
New York City 50 35 s 54 46 s Dublin 45 34 r 43 32 s Warsaw 39 31 pc 41 33 pc G(F)E, G(FEDC)B, S(R)Q, T(U)V and R(ST)U,
Solve this puzzle online and discuss it at WSJ.com/Puzzles.
s
Oklahoma City 73 52 s 66 39 pc Edinburgh 44 31 r 41 27 pc Zurich 41 34 pc 43 31 c which spell out the contest answer.
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THE WALL STREET JOURNAL. Monday, November 27, 2017 | A15
OPINION
Who’s Afraid of Index Funds? BOOKSHELF | By Michael Barone
By Barbara Novick price of these securities be- Combine the effects of What cannot be disputed is An Isolationist
C
comes increasingly unteth- greater size and faster turn- that indexing’s success has up-
hallenges to the status ered from the value of indi- over, and it’s clear that the ended the status quo. The ef-
quo—political, economic
or social—always evoke
strong emotions, from enthu-
siastic support to fierce criti-
vidual companies. They argue
that companies included in
these indexes see their stock
prices fly higher and higher
price of stocks is overwhelm-
ingly determined by active
traders.
Critics of indexing some-
fect will grow as regulatory re-
gimes around the world
require the kind of consumer-
friendly price transparency
Changes His Mind
cism. The loudest critics often regardless of their perfor- times point to the specter of that benefits index products.
have the most to lose, even if mance, while non-indexed a 100% indexed market. What To be sure, there are still
Arthur Vandenberg
they acknowledge some bene- stocks get ignored like wall- would happen, they ask, if in- questions to address. For ex- By Hendrik Meijer
fits of the new regime. flowers at a dance. dexing replaced stock-picking ample, investors need to bet- (Chicago, 432 pages, $35)
A
This clash is now unfold- entirely? Naturally, this ter understand the difference
ing over ascendant invest- would make it impossible to between plain-vanilla ETFs ny old timer’s lament about the dearth of foreign-
ment vehicles: index and ex- If passive investing price individual securities and highly leveraged exchange policy bipartisanship will surely invoke, sooner or later,
change-traded funds, or ETFs. properly. But this hypotheti- traded notes, or ETNs, which the memory of Arthur Vandenberg—and justifiably so.
The dramatic growth of such creates market cal ignores the natural equi- have more volatile prices. But During World War II and after, the formerly isolationist
products has been revolution- distortions, active librium created by supply and while debate is healthy, it Republican senator provided critical support to the interna-
ary. More investors are demand. needs to be based on facts tionalist policies of Franklin Roosevelt and Harry Truman.
choosing indexing over funds managers can win big. If indexing began to distort rather than fear. There is a big Though he left behind diaries and scrapbooks, there has
managed by traditional stock stock prices, that would cre- difference between disrup- been no definitive biography of Vandenberg since his death
pickers, known in the indus- ate an enormous opportunity tions to the way traditional in 1951. Now there is one, almost serendipitously. Some 25
try as active managers. Since But the numbers tell a dif- for active fund managers to asset managers do business, years ago, the daughter of a deceased academic historian,
2009, U.S. index funds have ferent story. Despite the pop- reap big returns—attracting which certainly are occurring, who had published an account of Vandenberg’s life that
seen inflows of some $1.7 ularity of indexing, active more dollars to those active and disruptions to the basic stopped at 1945, telephoned the Historical Society of
trillion, compared with out- managers still dominate the funds and at least partly re- functioning of capital markets, Michigan and asked if anyone wanted her father’s research
flows of nearly $1 trillion for buying and selling of stocks. versing the flow toward index which are not. files. She was referred to businessman Hendrik Meijer, who
actively managed mutual Indexed assets—including management. This process is Far from undermining the had recently delivered a lecture on his fellow Grand Rapids
funds. mutual funds, ETFs and insti- why active management re- markets, indexing has un- native. Mr. Meijer accepted the papers and, amid his work as
Indexing has democratized tutional portfolios—account mains—and will continue to leashed new competition, chairman of the family-
investing. Today, all Ameri- for less than 20% of all remain—essential. driven innovation and identi- owned Meijer super-
cans can inexpensively and global equities, according to Indexing is only one com- fied new ways to deliver prof- market and retail chain,
conveniently invest in mar- our analysis. That’s about ponent of a diverse, robust its. Even active managers are conducted dozens of
kets, countries and strategies $12 trillion of a $68 trillion and constantly innovating using more ETFs, while every- interviews and consulted
once open only to institu- market. The rest is actively ecosystem. Think of ETFs day investors are saving more. multiple archives. The result
tional investors. Yet a few de- managed. and index funds as levers The rise of indexing has is “Arthur Vandenberg: The
tractors have compared such Those actively managed that sit alongside individual changed for the better the Man in the Middle of the
passive investing to Marxism assets trying to beat the mar- stocks and bonds, actively way all investors seek returns, American Century,” an engag-
and declared it an existential ket trade much more fre- managed funds, futures and manage risk and build portfo- ing and thorough account of
threat to the modern securi- quently than indexed assets swaps, private equity and lios. That’s a development ev- Vandenberg’s life.
ties market. What exactly do do. At BlackRock, we estimate IPOs. Together, they combine eryone should welcome. The man Mr. Meijer describes
they object to? that for every $1 of U.S. stock to support the smooth func- was a natural politician with a
As more individuals and trades driven by investors tioning of U.S. capital mar- Ms. Novick is a co-founder Horatio Alger beginning. He
institutions invest in index buying or selling index funds, kets and Americans’ ability and vice chairman of Black- started working at age 9, when his
products rather than individ- there are $22 of trades to confidently buy and sell Rock, a global leader in asset father’s harness-making business foundered
ual stocks, critics claim, the driven by active stock pickers. securities. management. in the depression of 1893. He spent a year at the University of
Michigan, lost one job for playing hooky to see vice-presidential
candidate Theodore Roosevelt in 1900, and snagged another at
Puerto Rico Doesn’t Want Reform the Grand Rapids Herald, soon turning in more copy than any
other reporter. In 1906 the paper’s editor died, and the propri-
etor, soon-to-be Sen. William Alden Smith, named Vandenberg
It has been 10 of existing debt.” Heaven locked in a power struggle, Yet mutual assistance is all to replace him. He was five days short of turning 22.
weeks since forbid. and the board is losing. about emergency response Vandenberg’s prose style—featuring “five-dollar words”
Hurricane Ma- More unthinkable was ru- The Prepa fiasco is in- and the company could have and “overstuffed phrasing”—doesn’t match our modern
ria slammed ining the “flat broke” image structive. Earlier this month solved its money problems by tastes, Mr. Meijer concedes. But it made him influential in
into Puerto the commonwealth has been Mr. Rosselló’s handpicked accepting the financing offer Michigan. He wrote two books praising his hero, Alexander
Rico. The dev- cultivating so it can write Prepa director, Ricardo Ra- from Prepa bondholders. Hamilton, and defended the homespun businessman at the
AMERICAS astation was down debt and skip the mos, resigned amid allega- Then again Mr. Ramos was center of “Babbitt,” Sinclair Lewis’s 1922 satirical novel.
fierce. Yet it matching requirements nec- tions that he grossly mis- a political hire and may have “Without him this would be a sodden land,” he editorialized.
By Mary
cannot ex- essary to receive Federal managed the hurricane lacked the necessary utility Vandenberg was gearing up to run for the Senate in 1928
Anastasia
plain why al- Emergency Management recovery. As the Journal’s experience to handle the cri- and, when the incumbent died, was appointed to fill the
O’Grady
most half the Agency funds. It’s also more Andrew Scurria reported ear- sis. And Mr. Rosselló almost vacancy; he won with 72% in November. With the auto
generating ca- convenient to tap taxpayers lier this month, a $300 mil- certainly didn’t want to give boom, Michigan was the fastest-growing state east of the
pacity of the Puerto Rico Elec- than to borrow money from lion no-bid contract with creditors—whom the Promesa Rockies and north of Florida, and Vandenberg kept his eye
tric Power Authority (Prepa) private entities asking for ac- Whitefish Energy Holdings to board has already sidelined— on the new masses of auto workers in Detroit and Flint.
is still down. countability. This is particu- restore the island’s power new leverage over an institu- After Michigan’s banks were forced to close in February
Credit for that goes to larly true for a state-owned lacked protections for Prepa tion that, according to Puerto 1933, he was the prime sponsor of federal deposit insurance
Congress, which in June 2016 monopoly like Prepa, which is and went against the recom- Rican tradition, is part of his and, with the help of Vice President John Nance Garner,
passed the Puerto Rico Over- as much a political instru- mendations of the utility’s fiefdom. overcame Franklin Roosevelt’s opposition to the measure.
sight Management and Eco- ment as it is an electricity lawyers. Now Mr. Rosselló is asking Vandenberg was the only Republican senator from a large
nomic Stability Act, a k a company. for $94 billion in aid from industrial state re-elected in the Democratic year of 1934.
Promesa. It opened the door When critics complained Washington for reconstruc-
to debt defaults that violate last year that Promesa would The Promesa law, not tion costs. But he’s refused to
the Puerto Rican constitution alleviate the pressure on is- implement furloughs and Having opposed Lend-Lease and supported
and U.S. law. As is always the land politicians to reform the Hurricane Maria, is pension cuts mandated by the neutrality, a prominent Republican senator
case when the rule of law welfare state, their concerns the real culprit behind Promesa board. In August the
takes a back seat to politics, were pooh-poohed. Congress board sued him for that. The decided to back FDR and internationalism.
it has fueled chaos. said Promesa’s “financial the island’s troubles. matter was dropped after
Prepa blames its disas- management and oversight Maria hit and so was the
trous post-hurricane deci- board” would impose the broader board-certified fiscal Mr. Meijer does not sidestep Vandenberg’s peccadilloes. In
sions on a shortage of cash. discipline necessary for re- Before a House subcom- plan requiring Puerto Rico to the late 1930s he sometimes drank too much, and he had an
Yet in the immediate after- form. Negotiated settlements mittee on Nov. 14 Mr. Ramos tighten its belt. affair with the wife of a British diplomat. He was an active
math of the storm, a group of with bondholders were to be defended his decision to hire He then fought the board member of the Nye Committee that blamed World War I on
Prepa bondholders offered given priority and existing the company, arguing that it in court to stop it from ap- munitions makers, a vocal supporter of the 1937 Neutrality
the company fresh debtor-in- restructuring agreements— was driven by a cash crunch. pointing retired Air Force Act, and an opponent of increased defense spending. After a
possession financing that in- like the one between Prepa But that’s a difficult narrative Col. Noel Zamot as “chief failed stab at the 1940 Republican presidential nomination,
cluded a swap of $1 billion in and its creditors—were to be to sustain. transformation officer” to he was the “generalissimo” of the opposition to Roosevelt’s
existing debt for $850 million preserved. After Mr. Rosselló can- run Prepa. Bondholders also Lend-Lease aid to Britain. But as war continued to rage, this
in new bonds and $1 billion None of this happened. Ac- celed the Whitefish contract objected to Mr. Zamot, citing instinctive politician concluded that “prudence lies
in new cash. cording to a spokesman for in late October, Mr. Ramos a lack of utility experience. somewhere in between” isolationism and interventionism.
Puerto Rico rejected the the Ad Hoc Group of Puerto called on the American Public But Mr. Rosselló’s reasoning He voted for Roosevelt’s huge increases in defense
offer. “The bondholders’ pro- Rico General Obligation Power Association and Edi- is that Prepa leadership must spending and backed him solidly after Pearl Harbor, although,
posal is not viable and would Bondholders, the group son Electric Institute for be his call. On Nov. 13 a fed- as he wrote in his diary, “even in the Senate we can’t find out
severely hamper and limit reached a negotiated settle- help. Utility experts say that eral judge ruled in his favor. what’s going on.” He bristled at Roosevelt’s 1943 plan to
Prepa’s capacity to success- ment with the commonwealth post-hurricane protocol is to Last week he announced the deliver relief aid to liberated areas in Europe without
fully manage its recovery,” in the spring. But the go first to these industry bankrupt commonwealth congressional approval, then supported an authorizing joint
Puerto Rico’s Fiscal Agency Promesa board nixed it. The groups, which organize “mu- would pay Christmas bonuses resolution. He persuaded Republican officials, gathered at
and Financial Advisory Au- board also vetoed an existing tual assistance” from other to its employees. their summer 1943 Mackinac Island confab, to back “responsi-
thority said at the time. It agreement between creditors utility companies. Mr. Ros- And so it goes. Mr. Rosselló ble participation . . . in [a] postwar cooperative organization
added that the offer had the and Prepa, in violation of selló has said “Prepa did not liked the Promesa board when among sovereign nations” and in 1944 started working out
“appearance” of “being made Promesa guarantees. go that route . . . because it tore up contracts. But now plans for one with Secretary of State Cordell Hull.
for the purpose of favorably Now the oversight board they had timing issues and he wants it to go away. In January 1945, in a much-noted Senate speech,
impacting the trading price and Gov. Ricardo Rosselló are money issues.” Write to O’Grady@wsj.com. Vandenberg said that, when it came to international
security, no nation “can immunize itself by its own
exclusive action.” The isolationist had become an
What My Mother Told Me About Bad Men internationalist. Roosevelt had seen how Woodrow Wilson’s
failure to include Republicans had resulted in the Versailles
Treaty’s falling short of Senate ratification. So he appointed
By Angela Rocco My mother was born in Italy Don’t misunderstand. The of their little seats. Well, boys Vandenberg, the man in the middle, to the group tasked
DeCarlo in 1903. I doubt she’d ever been Hollywood episodes are more are the same way when they with drafting the United Nations charter in San Francisco.
W
in a hotel room in her life. Yet about power than carnal at- see a beautiful girl. Don’t take Vandenberg shrewdly held in reserve but never exercised
omen have always had somehow she knew what every traction, though sex is the ob- it personally.” his prerogative of disagreeing with the administration and
to deal with misbe- woman should know—going to jective for sure. The power im- As a teenage model I had an repeatedly used the threat of Senate disapproval to bring
having men—sidewalk a man’s hotel room alone is balance in the film business is assignment for a jewelry photo the Soviet delegation into line. The charter passed the
cat callers, subway gropers, rarely a smart choice. enormous. It’s mostly men shoot. The stylist gave me a Senate 89-2 in July 1945. He mistrusted the Communists,
workplace harassers, and the pulling the strings, deciding length of satin cloth to wrap warning of an “iron curtain” five months before Churchill
occasional complete rotter. Yet which supplicants get roles, around my chest so I could used the phrase. In February 1947, now chairman of the For-
it’s also true that some women Going to a man’s script assignments and other bare my shoulders. After the eign Relations Committee, he was summoned to a meeting
misuse their sexual charms to hotel room alone is high-demand jobs. photographer had taken his with Truman. Britain was pulling out of Greece; Truman
advance in life. The whole ar- Add to that this: Some men shots he wanted a different an- wanted to protect it and Turkey from Soviet takeover. “If
rangement is unfair, often rarely a smart choice. are cracked. They weren’t gle. He tried to reposition the you will say that to the Congress and the country,” Vanden-
predatory and can be degrad- raised by actual wolves but satin cloth. berg asserted, “I will support you and I believe most of its
ing. But it is the way of the something definitely went hay- “I can’t let you do that,” I members will do the same.”
world. Two years ago our local pa- wire somewhere. They see fe- said. He did and they did, but it wasn’t always simple.
“Never go to a man’s hotel per ran a photograph on the males as prey, not just pretties. “You aren’t going to make it Vandenberg maneuvered and added his own touches to the
room,” my mother once told front page of a teenage girl in This is reality and everyone in- as a model with such a silly at- Truman Doctrine, the Marshall Plan and NATO. As Mr. Meijer
me. I had a job profiling ce- a plunging neckline holding a volved should be aware. titude,” he huffed. He was writes: “The line between advice and consent and making
lebrities for Chicago newspa- sign: “Instead of body sham- When my granddaughter, right. I wasn’t going to make policy grew blurred.” Truman’s 1948 victory brought back
pers. I brushed off the ad- ing girls, teach boys that girls Michelle, started high school, I it, especially if compromising Democratic majorities and “an end to Vandenberg’s aura of
vice—I was a professional are not sexual objects.” The could see the boys were gaga my values was the price. indispensability.” His health deteriorated in October 1950, and
woman, after all—until I story, following the notion on over her. To put her on her Don’t go to the hotel room he died six months later. But by then America’s bipartisan Cold
found myself in a hotel room the sign, was that girls should guard I explained how things alone. If you can’t take your War policy was solidly in place and would last for decades. As
with a barefoot guy wearing a be able to appear in any state work. mother, take videos. Mr. Meijer’s first-rate chronicle shows, Vandenberg was very
white terrycloth bathrobe. I of undress and no one, espe- “Mishie,” I said. “You know much, in Dean Acheson’s phrase, “present at the creation.”
kept my back against the door cially boys, had any right to how babies get excited if you Ms. DeCarlo formerly cov-
while he patted the loveseat react. jangle a bunch of keys in front ered culture, travel and enter- Mr. Barone is senior political analyst at the Washington
cushion, bidding me come Sorry, young lady. The world of their faces? They laugh, tainment for the Chicago Trib- Examiner, resident fellow at the American Enterprise
hither. I asked my questions doesn’t work that way. Some- wave their arms and legs, and une and the Las Vegas Review- Institute and author of “Our Country: The Shaping of
and fled. one should have told you. act like they want to jump out Journal. America From Roosevelt to Reagan.”
For personal non-commercial use only. Do not edit or alter. Reproductions not permitted.
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A16 | Monday, November 27, 2017 THE WALL STREET JOURNAL.
OPINION
REVIEW & OUTLOOK LETTERS TO THE EDITOR
Tax Reform, Growth and the Deficit Not Much Light at End of Afghanistan Tunnel
T
he Senate may vote as soon as this week three to five years and then settle at 2.5%. The Hy Rothstein and John Arquilla It’s the only approach to Afghanistan
on tax reform, and the outcome hangs Tax Foundation predicts the Senate plan will make the point that’s been proven that has not been tried and failed.
time and again about Afghanistan, BOB BRONSON
on a few GOP holdouts. Two worries of produce more than $1 trillion in revenue, in part
that foreign occupiers face a quagmire Aurora, Ill.
the fence-sitters are how thanks to an investment cata- in an almost ungovernable country
much the reform will improve A U.S. growth rate of lyst from immediate capital ex- (“Trump’s Afghan Policy Goes The State Department is responsi-
the economy and whether it 1.9% will never balance pensing in the first year. Wrong,” op-ed, Nov. 17). President ble for America’s policy implementa-
will add to the federal deficit. The left ignores all this and Obama desperately wanted to pull all tion in Afghanistan, and it does a bad
Let’s examine these concerns the federal budget. flogs as unrefutable whatever forces out of Iraq and Afghanistan, job. The reasons are manifest: lack of
against the budget math and emerges from the Joint Com- but he was trapped by his oft-re- focus, lack of engagement, lack of con-
economic evidence. mittee on Taxation. But Joint peated campaign statement that Af- sistency, lack of talent.
i i i Tax assumes the U.S. is a partially “closed” ghanistan was the “smart war.” When I was in Afghanistan helping
Start with the fact that the GOP budget out- economy with little access to global markets. Forced into a corner, Mr. Obama had to train its police, the biggest regional
line allows for a net tax cut of $1.5 trillion over Its models assume that higher deficits will no choice but to agree with the Penta- challenges were lack of central Afghan
gon’s plan for a major surge, but he government control, local chaos cre-
a decade on a statically scored basis thanks to “crowd out” private borrowing and thus drive
gave the generals fewer troops than ated by the Taliban (supported by Pak-
a deal brokered by Senators Pat Toomey and Bob up interest rates and offset the growth impact they asked for and told the world (and istan), Afghan government corruption
Corker. Democrats and their media chorus are of the tax cut. Yet a major goal of the tax re- the enemy) the exact time we would and the State Department’s inability to
using that number to claim that reform will bust form is make the U.S. more competitive as a leave the country. This seemingly implement its policies.
the budget and add to the federal debt. This destination for foreign capital, and interest laughable strategy appeased Mr. Integrating a network of highways,
comes with ill grace from people who cheered rates in a global capital market will be deter- Obama’s hard-left base at home, while railroads, power grids and local gov-
Barack Obama’s doubling of the national debt in mined by far more than a modest increase in appearing to keep his campaign prom- ernments, combined with consistent
eight years, but it’s also overwrought. the U.S. budget deficit. ise on the “smart war.” management of provinces by the cen-
The actual budget hole is smaller than $1.5 Another false charge from the left is that the The authors propose forgetting tral Afghan government, are crucial to
trillion because the GOP budget is scored on a GOP bills are merely a tax cut without any re- about trying to align with the govern- long-term progress if the Defense De-
“current law” baseline. This assumes that tax form. But the bills eliminate trillions of dollars ment in Kabul. This has never been partment, with our allies, can suppress
successful for anyone, as the former insurgency. The State Department has
breaks that are “current policy” will expire and in loopholes, such as the state and local tax de- Soviet Union and presidents of both to lead the support we provide, in
more revenue will flow to Treasury. This is duction. The House bill caps the mortgage-inter- U.S. political parties have discovered. partnership with the DOD. There is no
worth more than $400 billion over 10 years, est deduction at $500,000. Their suggestion to forget Kabul and local solution in Afghanistan.
which means the budget “hole” is closer to $1 Also on the chopping block are business concentrate on creating relationships BOB ROSENKRANZ
trillion out of the $43 trillion the Congressional carve-outs—including cuts in the deductibility with local institutions makes sense. Richmond, Va.
Budget Office projects in revenues over the next of interest—that are used to pay for lower busi-
decade. In other words, this is a modest net tax ness tax rates. We’d like to see every loophole
cut even assuming no additional economic eliminated, but this really is the most far-reach-
growth. ing business-tax reform since 1986. Senate’s Take on Tax: Best to Reduce Gaming
CBO’s estimates are inherently speculative One fair objection is that the true deficit im-
The editorial “Reducing Corporate The Senate’s approach to closing
because no one knows when the next recession pact is partially hidden because the Senate’s in-
Tax Games” (Nov. 20) rightly recog- this loophole is indeed the better
might hit or what some future Congress might dividual tax cuts expire after 2025, though ev- nizes the importance of dealing with one than that approved by the
do. But CBO has typically underestimated the eryone assumes Congress would extend them. base erosion in tax reform. The cur- House, whose weak provisions un-
growth and revenue feedback from tax cuts. A This fudge is driven by the Senate’s mistake in rent tax code is full of loopholes that dermined its own professed goal to
classic example is the 2003 cut in the tax rate on doubling to $2,000 the child tax credit, which allow foreign-based companies oper- stop inversions. The Senate approach
capital gains. Dan Clifton of Strategas Research does nothing for growth and is thus a dead- ating in the U.S. to avoid paying taxes should carry the day. Base erosion is
notes that in January 2004, eight months after weight revenue loss to Treasury. here on their U.S.-generated business. a very real problem, particularly in
the tax cut passed, CBO predicted $215 billion This is a sellout to Senators Marco Rubio and Meanwhile, U.S.-based companies are the insurance industry. Comprehen-
in capital-gains revenue through 2007. The ac- Mike Lee, as well as to the income distribution competing for the same business but sive tax reform is the right place to
tual figure? $377 billion. CBO underestimated tables and the class-war left—not that it is mut- paying full freight. deal with it.
economic growth and how much investors would ing the critics. If the budget hawks want to re- This unequal tax treatment creates WILLIAM R. BERKLEY
winners and losers and gives compa- On behalf of the Coalition for
cash in their gains. duce reform’s deficit impact, the child tax
nies that invert to low or no tax juris- American Insurance
CBO’s roughly $43 trillion revenue estimate credit’s size and income phaseout of $500,000 dictions (tax havens) a very real and Miami
also depends on a projection of average eco- should be their targets. significant competitive advantage in
nomic growth of 1.9% a year. But the U.S. econ- i i i the marketplace. From the perspective
omy has never grown that slowly for so long. The question Senators need to ask them- of U.S.-based insurers, this is a real Coins Are Right Half the
CBO says that every 0.1% increase in GDP adds selves in the end is whether this reform, all problem. Foreign-based insurers are
about $270 billion in revenue over 10 years. That things considered, is a net benefit for the coun- currently allowed to strip profits gen-
Time, Beating Economists
means a mere four years at 3% growth—the U.S. try. We think it is—not least because it is a vote erated in the U.S. to overseas affili- In your editorial “A Nafta Reces-
historical norm—could fill a $1 trillion hole. An of confidence that better policies can restore ates and avoid paying any taxes on sion?” (Nov. 13), you cite a survey
average growth rate of even 2.4% over the de- America’s traditional economic vigor. Democrats that income. That’s a glaring loophole of economists in which “82% said
and their media friends have given up on that that has cost U.S.-taxpayers nearly $9 the economy would grow more
cade would more than fill the hole.
billion over a decade. slowly for the next two years than
Nearby we reprint a letter from some of the score, concluding that we are doomed to “secu- it would otherwise, and 7% pre-
country’s most distinguished economists mak- lar stagnation” and that our politics must de- dicted a recession.” The Organiza-
ing the case that the House and Senate reforms volve into a brawl to divide up the spoils of what- Bob Menendez Trial Defines tion for Economic Cooperation and
will significantly raise U.S. growth potential. The ever meager growth we can muster. Development and Citigroup have
biggest boost comes from the reductions in the That is not the country we have known and Down Constituent Service published data on the inaccuracy of
tax burden on capital, which should increase in- it is an America that would be much diminished Concerning your editorial “The economists’ predictions. Tim Hart-
vestment and thus growth. and harsher. Republicans need to decide if they Menendez Mistrial” (Nov. 18): What ford in the Financial Times reports
One of the signers, Larry Lindsey, predicted still believe America can prosper again, or if it in less brazen times would effectively Prakash Lougani, an economist with
in our pages this fall that economic growth un- is doomed to the slow growth and stagnant be viewed as felony bribery—a sena- the IMF, wrote in 2001: “The record
der the GOP plan would accelerate to 3.2% for wages of the last 11 years. tor “helping” a longtime “friend” in of failure to predict recessions is
return for political donations, opulent virtually unblemished” (throughout
vacations, free trips and other life- 1990s). Mr. Hartford reports that
Patents and Property at the Supremes style goodies—has now been defined
down as constituent service.
Mr. Lougani and a colleague, Hites
Ahir, in 2014 continued to report
C
You can hear the laughter echoing the dismal predictive results of
an government bureaucrats vitiate pri- Panels also use a “preponderance of the evi- throughout Tammany Hall: honest economists internationally. Since
vate property rights without a jury trial dence” to invalidate patents rather than the more graft, now with the imprimatur of the only 7% of economists predict re-
and fair compensation? That’s the ques- rigorous “clear and convincing” standard applied courts. cession this may be the more likely
tion the Supreme Court will by federal courts in civil law- The problem isn’t how constituent event. Once 82% predict a reces-
consider on Monday in what The Justices will decide suits. Patent owners can be service, corruption, bribery and quid sion, it has either already happened
could become a landmark pat- pro quo are defined. The problem is or it won’t.
ent case, Oil States Energy v.
if Congress can let the subject to double or quadruple
jeopardy since inter partes re- the inexorable economic largess of MICHAEL P. CARTER
executive revoke patents. view doesn’t limit the number government. The more regulatory and Savannah, Ga.
Greene’s Energy.
economic control government exerts
At issue is the inter partes of challenges. One panel deci- over its citizens’ lives, the more the
review that Congress estab- sion isn’t binding on another Salomon Melgens and Bob Menen- Saudi Arabia Should Allow
lished with the 2011 America Invents Act to panel. The Federal Circuit Court of Appeals, dezes of the world will engage in self-
curb abusive patent litigation. Owners of low- which hears patent cases, has even ruled that in- interested crony politics.
The Freedom of Religion
quality patents—e.g., abstract ideas or pro- ter partes review panels can invalidate patents Perhaps a less influential govern- Regarding Karen Elliott House’s
cesses with broad applicability—extort busi- upheld by federal courts and juries. ment one-half or one-third its current “The Strategy Behind the Saudi
nesses with infringement lawsuits that are The Patent and Trademark Office director size might do a far better job for the Strife” (op-ed, Nov. 7): I have a rel-
often cheaper to settle than fight. This can de- also wields enormous discretion. When unsatis- people it professes to represent. ative who has worked as a teacher
ter innovation. Inter partes review allows any- fied with results of a review, Obama PTO direc- WILLIAM A. MATTHEWS in Saudi Arabia for over 20 years.
Boston In all of that time, he hasn’t been
one to challenge a patent at any time. The Pat- tor Michelle Lee granted rehearings and added
allowed to practice his faith. The
ent Trial and Appeal Board, composed of judges. In other words, she stacked the adminis- same is true of others whose faith
administrative judges appointed by the Com- trative courts. Kill, Don’t Try to Reform, differs from that of the Sunni ma-
merce Secretary, then decides whether to grant Oil States is before the High Court because jority, including the Shiite minority,
a review and perhaps revoke a patent. the Federal Circuit broke with 200 years of judi- The Unaccountable CFPB though in a less rigorous way.
Oil States lost an inter partes review chal- cial precedent in 2015 by declaring that patents Dennis Shaul makes it abundantly Saudi Arabia will have to become
lenge after suing Greene Energy for infringe- are public rights—that is, executive privileges— clear that the Consumer Financial a more tolerant society if it is ever
ment. The company then claimed that inter and thus not entitled to Article III or Seventh Protection Bureau is primarily an un- to join the community of progres-
partes review violates the Constitution’s Article Amendment protections. Large tech companies accountable, overstaffed, overpaid sive nations. Ms. House cites, among
III and the Seventh Amendment because it al- have supported this radical legal departure to bureaucracy undertaking procedures other changes, the newfound
lows an administrative agency to revoke patents salvage inter partes review. duplicative of other financial regula- (though limited) freedom for women
tors, politically biased and funded in and the presence of restive young
without a jury trial. Article III sets the qualifica- In its landmark McCormick decision (1898),
a way to avoid congressional over- men. Freedom of religion must ac-
tions for the federal judiciary—that is, judges the Supreme Court asserted that “upon the issue sight (“What Went Wrong With the company any other change that the
are appointed by the President with the consent of [a] patent, the patent office . . . los[es] juris- CFPB,” op-ed, Nov. 20). present autocratic and theocratic
of the Senate. They also have lifetime tenure. diction over it.” The Court has consistently reaf- So why is the Trump administra- rulers are planning to allow.
The Seventh Amendment guarantees a jury trial firmed that patents are private property rights, tion going to appoint a new director PETER O’REILLY
in suits involving common law such as private as recently as 2015 when Chief Justice John Rob- to the CFPB, an agency the Republi- Redondo Beach, Calif.
property, contracts and trademarks. erts wrote in Horne v. Dept. of Agriculture that cans never wanted and that was cre-
Congress has increasingly ceded authority to a patent “confers upon the patentee an exclusive ated after the financial crisis when
administrative bodies over disputes involving property in the patented invention which cannot President Obama and the Democrats Pepper ...
public rights—those between the government be appropriated or used by the government it- were in full control?
If the party of low taxes and lim-
And Salt
and individuals that don’t have a basis in common self, without just compensation.”
ited government wants to maintain THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
law. But private rights are strictly the domain of Patents encourage innovation by protecting
that reputation, it seems that closing
the federal judiciary. This distinction is crucial the fruits of entrepreneurs’ labor, and that pro- the CFPB would be a good place to
since Article III judges are intentionally insulated tection is undermined if patents can be revoked start. The voters are still waiting for
from politics and the two political branches. at any time by an administrative agency. While the swamp to be drained. A year after
Imagine if an Administration official could ad- abusive litigation can sap innovation, inter the Republicans took control of the
judicate a fraud case between Jeff Bezos and partes review offers the potential for legal and White House and Congress, it looks
Ivanka Trump. A similar potential for executive government abuses. like the swamp is alive and well.
abuse and political interference exists with the The Supreme Court in May curbed forum ELLEN SANDLES
Patent Trial and Appeal Board, which lacks the shopping in patent infringement cases, and New York
due process and separation-of-powers protec- Congress can create other patent-troll deter-
tions enshrined in Article III. Administrative rents such as requiring more rigorous training Letters intended for publication should
judges are essentially political appointees with for examiners who issue patents. Lawmakers be addressed to: The Editor, 1211 Avenue
of the Americas, New York, NY 10036,
civil service protections. A patent challenger could also establish district patent tribunals or emailed to wsj.ltrs@wsj.com. Please
doesn’t even have to be a party to a case or con- similar to bankruptcy courts within the federal include your city and state. All letters
troversy to present a claim. Hedge-fund investors judiciary. Inter partes review was well-in- are subject to editing, and unpublished
have been known to file petitions to invalidate tended, but any economic benefits aren’t worth letters can be neither acknowledged nor “Any other skills besides
returned.
patents prior to short-selling stocks. the constitutional damage. doing crossword puzzles in ink?”
For personal non-commercial use only. Do not edit or alter. Reproductions not permitted.
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THE WALL STREET JOURNAL. Monday, November 27, 2017 | A17
OPINION
D
expected cost to firms of making ad- bills would achieve this objective.
ear Mr. Secretary: ditional investments in equipment. A The increased growth, in turn,
The present debate considerable body of economic re- would lead to greater taxable in-
over tax reforms pro- search concludes that reductions in come and federal tax revenues,
posed by President the user cost of capital raise output which would reduce the static cost
Trump’s administration in the short and long run. Several of of lost federal tax revenue from the
and embodied in bills that have the proposals that have emerged in reform.
passed the House of Representatives the current debate are key to lower- We hope these analytical points of
and the Senate Finance Committee ing the user cost of capital. For ex- support for the growth effects of tax
has raised the basic question of ample, expensing, which allows plans being discussed are useful to
whether the bills are “pro-growth”: firms to deduct the full cost of in- you and to the Congress as you com-
ISTOCK/GETTY IMAGES
Would the proposals raise current vestment at the time it is made, low- plete the important economic task of
and future economic activity and ers the user cost of capital relative fundamental tax reform. We would
generate federal tax revenue that to depreciation over time. A lower be happy to discuss our conclusions
would reduce the “static cost” of the corporate tax rate also lowers the with you at your convenience.
reforms? This letter explains why we user cost of capital, which not only
believe that the answer to these induces U.S. firms to invest more, Robert J. Barro, Paul M. Warburg
questions is “yes.” but also makes it more attractive for Professor of Economics, Harvard
both U.S. and foreign multinational a 20.4% increase in the capital stock business income is substantial in University
corporations to locate investment in in the long run and a 4.8% increase in the United States, both bills would Michael J. Boskin, Tully M. Fried-
We believe the Republican the United States. GDP in the long run. More conserva- reduce taxation of non-corporate man Professor of Economics, Stan-
There is some uncertainty about tive estimates from the OECD suggest business income and increase the ford University; Chairman of the
bills could boost GDP just how much additional investment that corporate tax changes alone amount of capital expensing al- Council of Economic Advisers under
3% to 4% long term by is induced by reductions in the cost would raise long-run GDP by 2%. In lowed. While difficult to quantify, as President George H.W. Bush
of capital, but based on an extensive short, there is a substantial body of the bills specify different effective John Cogan, Leonard and Shirley
reducing the cost of capital. body of scholarly research, many research suggesting that fundamental tax rates, these provisions would in- Ely Senior Fellow, Hoover Institu-
economists believe that a 10% reduc- tax reform of the type being pro- crease investment and GDP above tion, Stanford University; Deputy Di-
tion in the cost of capital would lead posed would have an important effect the level associated with the corpo- rector of the Office of Management
Economists generally think of fun- to a 10% increase in the amount of on long-run GDP. We view long-run rate tax changes discussed above. and Budget under President Ronald
damental tax reform as a set of tax investment. Simultaneously reducing effects of about 3% assuming five Also on the individual side, both the Reagan
changes that reduces tax distortions the corporate tax rate to 20% and years of full expensing, and 4% as- House and Senate bills reduce mar- Douglas Holtz-Eakin, President,
on productive activities (for exam- moving to immediate expensing of suming permanent full expensing, as ginal tax rates on labor income for American Action Forum, former di-
ple, business investment and work) equipment and intangible invest- reasonable estimates. most taxpayers, increasing the re- rector of the Congressional Budget
and broadens the tax base to reduce ment would reduce the user cost by Another advantage of the corpo- ward for work. Increases in labor Office
tax differences among similarly situ- an average of 15%, which would in- rate rate reduction embodied in the supply, in turn, increase taxable in- Glenn Hubbard, Dean and Russell
ated businesses and individuals. Fun- crease the demand for capital by House and Senate Finance bills is come and tax revenues. One should L. Carson Professor of Finance and
damental tax reform should also ad- 15%. A conventional approach to eco- that it would lead both U.S. and for- note, however, that some taxpayers Economics (Graduate School of Busi-
vance the objectives of fairness and nomic modeling suggests that such eign firms to invest more in the would face increases in effective ness) and Professor of Economics
simplification. an increase in the capital stock United States. In addition, U.S. multi- marginal tax rates because of base- (Arts and Sciences), Columbia Uni-
The quest for such fundamental would raise the level of GDP in the national firms would face a reduced broadening features of the bills, versity; Chairman of the Council of
tax reform has been pursued by pol- long run by just over 4%. If achieved incentive to shift profits abroad, such as limits on the federal tax de- Economic Advisers under President
icy makers and economists for de- over a decade, the associated in- which would raise federal revenue, ductibility of state and local income George W. Bush
cades. Examples include the Tax Re- crease in the annual rate of GDP all else equal. taxes. On balance, though, we be- Lawrence B. Lindsey, President
form Act of 1986, proposals for growth would be about 0.4% per In the foregoing analysis, we as- lieve that the individual tax base and Chief Executive Officer, The
reducing the double taxation of cor- year. Because the House and Senate sumed a revenue-neutral corporate broadening embodied in the propos- Lindsey Group; Director of the Na-
porate equity by the Treasury De- bills contemplate expensing only for tax change. Deficit financing of part als would enhance economic effi- tional Economic Council under Presi-
partment and the American Law In- five years, the increase in capital ac- of a reduction in taxes increases fed- ciency by confronting most house- dent George W. Bush
stitute (enacted in part in 2003), the cumulation would be less, and the eral debt and interest rates, all else holds with lower marginal tax rates. Harvey S. Rosen, John L. Wein-
“Growth and Investment Plan” from gain in the long-run level of GDP equal. For the House and Senate Fi- In addition, fairness would be berg Professor of Economics and
President George W. Bush’s Advisory would be just over 3%, or 0.3% per nance bills, this offset is likely to be served by reducing differences in Business Policy, Princeton Univer-
Panel on Federal Tax Reform, and ar- year for a decade. modest, given that the United States the tax treatment of individuals sity; Chairman of the Council of Eco-
guments from President Obama’s ad- Is this estimate of the growth ef- operates in an international capital with similar incomes, and simplifi- nomic Advisers under President
ministration to lower corporate tax fect realistic? According to one lead- market, which means that the impact cation by reducing the number of George W. Bush
rates. The proposals emerging from ing model using an alternative frame- of changes in interest rates resulting individuals who itemize for federal George P. Shultz, Thomas W. and
the House, Senate, and President work, the proposal would increase from greater investment demand and tax purposes. Susan B. Ford Distinguished Fellow,
Trump’s administration, fall squarely the U.S. capital stock by between 12% government borrowing are likely to Confirming a Pro-Growth Objec- Hoover Institution, Stanford Univer-
within this tradition. and 19%, which would raise the level be relatively small. tive Is Important for the Path For- sity; Secretary of State under Presi-
Reducing Corporate Tax Rates, as of GDP in the long run by between 3% Lowering Individual Tax Rates ward dent Ronald Reagan; Secretary of the
Proposed, Will Increase Economic and 5%. Yet another model, this one Also Offers Generally Positive Eco- You have consistently stressed Treasury under President Richard
Activity used in the analysis of the “Growth nomic Effects that the objective of tax reform Nixon
While the overall House and Sen- and Investment Plan” in the 2005 The House and Senate bills also should be to enhance prospects for John. B. Taylor, Mary and Robert
ate tax plans contain numerous President’s Advisory Panel on Federal contemplate a number of individual increased economic growth and Raymond Professor of Economics,
household and business provisions, Tax Reform, found that a business tax provisions that can affect eco- household incomes. We agree with Stanford University; Undersecretary
we focus on the corporate tax cash-flow tax with expensing and a nomic activity and incomes. In recog- this objective, which is consistent of the Treasury for International Af-
changes, returning to other provisions corporate tax rate of 30% would yield nition of the fact that non-corporate with the traditional norms of public fairs under President George W. Bush
W
honest and decent work. after you’ve been deported. could improve the market for repre- tracks lawyers practicing in immi-
alls and travel bans get Bad lawyers generate real costs— The best solution—a right to im- sentation. It almost certainly would gration court by number. It should
most of the attention, but and not only for their clients. A preda- migration counsel similar to the drive some of the worst out of busi- begin to collect, crunch and disclose
there is another serious im- tory attorney might take an immi- right to a criminal defense lawyer— ness. Who wouldn’t shop around af- their case outcomes. This would arm
migration problem that few talk grant’s money and file baseless ter discovering a lawyer ranked in immigrants with the information
about: incompetent and predatory asylum claims. These meritless claims the bottom 10% by client outcomes? they need to select competent coun-
immigration lawyers. Such attorneys clog judicial dockets and increase de- This area of law is prone Although no lawyer should be ex- sel. It might also flag the fraudsters
do enormous harm to immigrants, tention times for immigrants with le- pected to win them all, immigrants for state bar associations.
courts and the federal fisc. This com- gitimate cases. And the costs quickly to abuse. It’s difficult to should get nervous if their lawyer al- Increased disclosure is not a sil-
plex problem won’t go away over- add up: The federal government file a bar complaint after ways loses. ver bullet. A world with informed
night, but the Trump administration spends about $158 a day to detain When immigrants lack a way to clients will face different problems
can limit the damage. someone, according to a 2014 Govern- you’ve been deported. differentiate between the shoddy than the current system, and not all
As a group, the private immigra- ment Accountability Office report. and the skillful, the worst lawyers immigrants will be aware of the new
tion bar now contains the worst law- The blame for America’s inade- keep collecting cases and fees. This database. Some lawyers would try to
yers in all of law. A 2011 survey of quate immigration bar does not lie probably can’t garner enough sup- also means that the best immigra- game the system and duck hard
federal judges by Richard Posner and with vulnerable immigrant commu- port on Capitol Hill. Lawyers orga- tion lawyers may struggle to make a cases to protect their records. It
Albert Yoon found that, of all prac- nities. No rational immigrant would nized and funded like public living because their corner-cutting might make it more difficult for cli-
tice areas appearing in federal knowingly shell out $10,000 for an defenders would be better positioned competitors depress the price of ser- ents with more challenging claims to
courts, immigration lawyers pro- asylum claim destined for failure. to police their own ranks. But this vices. That’s part of why many tal- secure representation. But these po-
vided the lowest-quality representa- Rather, immigrants make the com- does not mean that Congress and the ented practitioners choose to aban- tential pitfalls aren’t worse than the
tion. In another 2011 survey, 31 im- mon mistake of assuming that a Trump administration should keep don immigration law. This has led to status quo so many immigrants al-
migration judges in New York valid law license means that a lawyer ignoring the problem. a shortage of representation. One ready know.
classified nearly half of the attor- will do a decent job. In a forthcoming article in the 2015 study found that only 37% of
neys appearing before them as ei- The free market has failed to Washington and Lee Law Review, I people in removal proceedings have Mr. Edwards is a law professor at
ther inadequate or grossly inade- weed out the worst immigration law- argue that requiring disclosure of lawyers. the University of Nevada, Las Vegas.
quate. A 2015 study found that yers for a variety of reasons. For
immigrants would be better off with- one, immigrants often do not under-
out an attorney than entrusting their
fate to the bottom 10% of immigra-
tion lawyers.
stand complex administrative court
processes or the details of immigra-
tion law, forcing them to turn to cor-
If GPS Failed, We’d Be More Than Lost
Not all immigration lawyers are rupt counselors. Community reputa- By A.P.D.G. Everett No one was injured, but someone satellites all over the world could be
atrocious. Pro bono lawyers—who tion provides only an imperfect And Alex Berezow setting out to do deliberate harm destroyed. NASA warns that they
N
handle less than 10% of cases—win guide. Predatory immigration law- could pose a security risk in the can’t be protected. The U.S. would
about 90% of the asylum claims they yers sometimes enjoy good reputa- orth Korea and Russia pose future. be wise to stockpile communications
file. Law school clinics also deliver ex- tions in the community because the increasingly serious geopolit- As troublesome as a minor threat satellites to replace the ones the
cellent results for their clients. The U.S. deports their victims. When only ical threats to the U.S. and is, what if GPS as a whole were at- sun obliterates.
private immigration bar contains winners remain, immigrants never its allies. While these rogue nations tacked? The detonation of a nuclear A better option is to build a land-
many fine lawyers, but there are far hear about the lost cases. State bars possess nuclear weapons and formi- device high in the atmosphere—and based navigation system. The good
too many scoundrels. Clients struggle also struggle to police this behavior. dable conventional forces, they the creation of an electromagnetic news is that such a system, known
have also used unconventional pulse, or EMP, that would follow— as Loran, already exists and was
methods like hacking to attack gov- present the most likely threat to used by the U.S. Coast Guard for
ernment institutions and private the satellites that underpin the sys- years. But President Obama declared
PUBLISHED SINCE 1889 BY DOW JONES & COMPANY companies. Add another target to tem. In September 1962, a nuclear Loran obsolete in 2009, and Con-
Rupert Murdoch Robert Thomson the list of concerns: the Global Po- test conducted by the U.S. acciden- gress pulled funding for it. That was
Executive Chairman, News Corp Chief Executive Officer, News Corp sitioning System. tally destroyed a British satellite incredibly shortsighted. Loran is a
Gerard Baker William Lewis Built primarily for the U.S. mili- and streetlights in Hawaii, demon- great backup system because its sig-
Editor in Chief Chief Executive Officer and Publisher tary, GPS is now used by civilians strating the potential devastation of nals would be difficult to jam and it
Matthew J. Murray DOW JONES MANAGEMENT: across the globe. Smartphones, per- an EMP. would be less exposed to celestial
Deputy Editor in Chief Mark Musgrave, Chief People Officer; sonal navigation units, and air-traf- Anything that requires precise events.
Edward Roussel, Innovation & Communications;
DEPUTY MANAGING EDITORS:
Anna Sedgley, Chief Operating Officer & CFO;
fic control all rely on it. They’re part timing would be affected because Congress is considering a bill, the
Michael W. Miller, Senior Deputy;
Thorold Barker, Europe; Paul Beckett, Katie Vanneck-Smith, President of modern life, constantly perform- GPS satellites serve as global time- Department of Homeland Security
Washington; Andrew Dowell, Asia; OPERATING EXECUTIVES: ing trivial and critical functions all keepers. The loss of clock synchroni- Authorization Act, that would revive
Christine Glancey, Operations; Ramin Beheshti, Product & Technology; over the country. Fifteen of the “18 zation across the world would cause and enhance Loran into a highly reli-
Jennifer J. Hicks, Digital; Jason P. Conti, General Counsel;
Neal Lipschutz, Standards; Alex Martin, News; Frank Filippo, Print Products & Services; Critical Infrastructure and Key Re- the internet to stall and financial able, ground-based backup system.
Shazna Nessa, Visuals; Ann Podd, Initiatives; Steve Grycuk, Customer Service; source sectors” in the U.S. are GPS- transactions to cease. Our ability to This kind of system will not be com-
Matthew Rose, Enterprise; Kristin Heitmann, Transformation; reliant, according to the Department monitor and forecast the weather pletely impervious to EMPs or solar
Stephen Wisnefski, Professional News Nancy McNeill, Advertising & Corporate Sales;
Jonathan Wright, International of Homeland Security. would be hobbled, too. storms, but it would be less vulnera-
Paul A. Gigot, Editor of the Editorial Page;
Daniel Henninger, Deputy Editor, Editorial Page
DJ Media Group: Temporary, local GPS failures Even if America’s adversaries are ble than GPS satellites. In a world
Almar Latour, Publisher; have already proved chaotic. A truck not capable of pulling off such a full of threats, it wouldn’t hurt to
WALL STREET JOURNAL MANAGEMENT: Kenneth Breen, Commercial
Suzi Watford, Marketing and Circulation; Professional Information Business: driver in New Jersey used an illegal feat, Mother Nature certainly is. In have a backup.
Joseph B. Vincent, Operations; Christopher Lloyd, Head; but easily acquired GPS jammer to 1859, a ferocious solar storm known
Larry L. Hoffman, Production Ingrid Verschuren, Deputy Head prevent his boss from tracking him. as the Carrington Event shot Mr. Everett is a systems engineer.
EDITORIAL AND CORPORATE HEADQUARTERS: As he drove past Newark Liberty In- charged particles from the sun to- Mr. Berezow is senior fellow at the
1211 Avenue of the Americas, New York, N.Y., 10036 ternational Airport, his jammer ward Earth. If it were to happen American Council on Science and
Telephone 1-800-DOWJONES
blocked air-traffic control signals. again today, experts believe that Health.
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A18 | Monday, November 27, 2017 THE WALL STREET JOURNAL.
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Last Week: S&P 2602.42 À 0.91% S&P FIN À 0.19% S&P IT À 1.76% DJ TRANS À 1.45% WSJ $ IDX g 0.78% LIBOR 3M 1.468 NIKKEI 22550.85 À 0.69% See more at WSJMarkets.com
Dependence
Global outstanding debt
KEYWORDS | By Christopher Mims
INSIDE
Laws of Innovation Everyone Should Heed
by currency
$12 trillion
10 Domestic currency*
Three de- fear of missing out. Fortunately, the laws have a seemingly mundane obser-
Offshore dollars cades ago, a You’ve probably never been passed down by a small vation, is also his most im-
8
Other foreign historian heard of these principles or group of technologists who portant. He realized that the
6 currencies wrote six laws their author, Melvin Kranz- say they have profoundly af- impact of a technology de-
to explain so- berg, a professor of the his- fected their thinking. The pends on its geographic and
4 ciety’s unease tory of technology at Geor- text should serve as a foun- cultural context, meaning it
with the power and perva- gia Institute of Technology dation—something like a is often good and bad at the
2 siveness of technology.
Though based on historical
who died in 1995.
What’s a bigger shame is
Hippocratic oath—for all
people who build things.
same time.
His example was DDT, a
FORD’S
0 examples taken from the that most of the innovators pesticide and probable car- RECALLS PROVE
1967 ’70 ’80 ’90 2000 ’10 Cold War, the laws read as a
cheat sheet for explaining
today, who are building the
services and tools that have
1. “Technology is neither
good nor bad; nor is it neu-
cinogen that nonetheless
saved the lives of hundreds
A DISTRACTION
*Includes U.S. debt issued in dollars
Source: Bank for International Settlements our era of Facebook, Google, upended society, don’t know tral.” of thousands of people in In-
THE WALL STREET JOURNAL. the iPhone and FOMO, or them, either. Prof. Kranzberg’s first law, Please see MIMS page B4 AUTOS, B3
LIQUIDITY
SPY RESILIENCY
PERFORMANCE
For personal non-commercial use only. Do not edit or alter. Reproductions not permitted.
To reprint or license content, please contact our reprints and licensing department at +1 800-843-0008 or www.djreprints.com
B2 | Monday, November 27, 2017 * *** THE WALL STREET JOURNAL.
A
Alphabet......................B4
Amazon.com...............A1
General Motors...........B3
GGP..............................B1
Green Bridge Growers
P
Panty Drop..................R5
Phillips Edison............B2
OPEC Is Poised to Extend Oil Cuts
Apple...........................B4 .....................................R1 Postmates...................R3 BY GEORGI KANTCHEV tial public offering of the
Asperger Experts........R1 H S
AND SUMMER SAID Rising Price state-owned Saudi Aramco, the
OPEC strategy and geopolitical threats to production in Iran, Iraq and world’s biggest oil-producing
B Highland Capital SafetyTat.....................R2 After years of doing too lit- company. The IPO is the cen-
Management.............B7 Saudi Arabia are driving Brent crude-oil futures prices higher.
Boeing ......................... B4 SmartGlamour ............ R5 tle, OPEC could suddenly be terpiece of a plan to transform
HNA Group..................B7 Societe Generale.........B2 doing too much. Brent crude-oil futures the kingdom’s economy, less-
C
I SoftBank Group..........B1 The Organization of the Pe- $125 a barrel ening its dependence on oil
Cardlytics .................... B2
Intel...........................B10 Space Exploration troleum Exporting Countries’ and developing the world’s
Chewbeads..................R4 Technologies.............B4
Intuit ........................... R3 14 members and other major largest sovereign-wealth fund
Citgo Petroleum ......... A9 100
J
Starbucks....................B2 producers like Russia are to create new industries.
Comme des Garcons...R5 Stuttering King Bakery widely expected But Saudi oil officials say
D Javelin Venture .....................................R1 THE WEEK to strike an they also don’t want to overdo
Partners....................B4 75
Dow Jones...................B7 T AHEAD agreement this it. Saudi Energy Minister Khalid
K week to con- al-Falih told Bloomberg TV this
Dragoneer Investment Takata..........................B3
Group.........................B1 Kickstarter..................R3 tinue withhold- 50 month that the kingdom doesn’t
TaskRabbit .................. R3
E M ing about 2% of global oil sup- want “any spikes in prices that
Time ............................ B1 ply from the market. The shock the market; we don’t
Eight & Sand...............R5 Meredith......................B1 Time Warner...............B6 national energy ministers of 25 want any price movements that
Eloquii ......................... R5 Micron Technology....B10 Trader Joe's ................ B1 about two dozen countries are are not healthy for demand.”
EnerVest....................B10 N U set to meet Thursday at the oil “Our preference is that the
0
EV Energy Partners..B10 cartel’s headquarters in Vienna. market balances gradually,”
Netease.......................B4 Uber Technologies.B1,R3
But OPEC is beset by doubts 2014 ’15 ’16 ’17 Mr. Falih said.
F Niantic.........................B4 UBS Group...................B2
Facebook......................B4 Nvidia........................B10
that renewing its production Source: WSJ Market Data Group THE WALL STREET JOURNAL. Not all OPEC members think
W agreement for another several the extension is a good idea.
Ford Motor..................B3 O Wal-Mart Stores........A1 months will help its members, level since June 2015. The up- delivering.” Most are reeling economically
G Oldphones.com............R7 Walt Disney................B6 say OPEC representatives and ward trend is partly thanks to Overshooting their mark and politically from oil prices
General Atlantic..........B1 Oldphoneworks.com ... R7 Wefunder .................... R2 independent market watchers. OPEC’s production limits but could hurt demand for crude that are still around half of
Some members, along with also to geopolitical threats to around the globe and accelerate their 2014 levels. Higher prices
outside analysts, say that production in Iran, Iraq and a push toward electric vehicles would also lead to members
INDEX TO PEOPLE OPEC could overstimulate the
market and send prices too
Saudi Arabia, and Saudi public
statements suggesting the
and other technologies expected
to cut into oil consumption.
cheating on their production
targets to sell more crude, an-
high next year. That, in turn, kingdom is committed to sup- Higher prices could also in- alysts say.
A H Pilarski, Jan ................ R1 risks depressing demand for porting oil prices. centivize U.S. shale producers Ecuador, for instance, has
Adelstein, Dan............B2 Hackett, Jim ............... B3 Pozsar, Zoltan.............B2 crude. For years, OPEC had fought to ramp up drilling, raising the already all but said it won’t
C Hanke, John................B4 R “There’s actually a chance against a perception that it prospect of a flood of new oil comply with OPEC directives.
Hinrichs, Joe...............B2 Raede, Danny..............R1 the market will overtighten and was no longer relevant to an that could depress the market. OPEC members like Libya and
Chase, Mariah.............R5
prices go close to $70 soon,” oil market shaped by U.S. shale American producers seem al- Nigeria, which aren’t bound to
Chen, Feng .................. B7 J S
said Doug King, chief invest- drillers. The cartel did nothing ready to be taking advantage. production limits because of
Cook, Tim....................B4 Johnson, Brian............B3 Snider, Jeffrey............B2 ment officer of the Merchant when oil prices crashed in After falling for much of the civil strife, have also posed
Crislip, Matt..............B10 T
K Commodity hedge fund, which 2014. Then, when it finally de- past three months, the number problems for the cartel, as
D Tan, Adam...................B7 has $165 million under manage- cided to cut production last of rigs drilling for oil rose by their production rises.
Kalanick, Travis...........B1
Daugherty, Patrick......B7 Terry, Josh .................. B7 ment. “But they are also vulner- year, the desired effect— nine to a total of 747 this past “I’m not sure all of us
L
Dondero, James..........B7 Tidmarsh, Chris .......... R1 able if they don’t extend; that higher prices—took longer week, according to oil-services wanted to be in that deal for
Landon, Stéphane.......B2 will spook the market.” than expected. company Baker Hughes. that long,” said an OPEC dele-
E Tommarello, Nicholas.R2
M U Brent crude, the interna- Today, investors and execu- Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s most gate from a Persian Gulf coun-
Edison, Jeff.................B2
Mathrani, Sandeep.....B1 tional benchmark, is already up tives worry the cartel is over- powerful member, has advo- try where there are lingering
G Upadhyaya, Paresh.....B2
more than one-fifth in the past doing it. cated extending the production doubts about the efficacy of
Mullins, Todd .............. B1 W
Gartner, Steven .......... B2 three months, closing at $63.86 “I’m used to OPEC not do- cuts for an additional nine the production cuts.
Musk, Elon..................B4
Geiger, Angela ............ R1 Wang Jian...................B7 a barrel on Friday. U.S. crude ing enough,” said Rainer Seele, months, through the end of
Greenwald, Lisa..........R4 N-P Welsh, Michele...........R2 oil futures settled 1.6% higher chief executive of oil company 2018. The kingdom needs Heard on the Street: Russia’s
Griffin, Cary................R1 Neri, Antonio..............A2 Woodbury, Don...........R7 at $58.95, the highest closing OMV AG. “Now they are over- higher prices as it plans an ini- role is pivotal in oil talks... B11
has gyms in 44% of its more iar with the matter, though talks Bank’s hand, observers said.
than 340 grocery-anchored between the SoftBank consor- “This is just going to be
shopping centers, according to tium and Uber investors in re- more leverage for SoftBank,”
CEO Jeff Edison. In the cent weeks centered on a valua- said Anand Sanwal, chief exec-
mid-1990s, the company had tion of around $50 billion. While utive of tech-focused research
just a few centers with gyms a discount is customary in sec- firm CB Insights. If investors
because tenants viewed typical ondary sales, some investors believe there is new potential
gym-goers as teenage weight- have also marked down their for litigation and regulatory
lifters more likely to hang out valuations of the company amid measures, he said, “that is go-
on the curb than to shop, Mr. its executive-suite turmoil in the ing to have an impact on the
Edison says. past year. valuation.”
Westfield Corp. has 33 U.S. SoftBank wants to name the Mitchell Green, founding
malls, many with assets A member lifts weights on the fitness floor at the Life Time Athletic gym in Franklin, Tenn. lowest number possible, while in- partner at Lead Edge Capital,
greater than $1 billion. More vestors and board members are an Uber investor, said breaches
than half of them have some were “on a long list of prohib- dios and bargain chains. thought. More than 40% of pushing for a higher valuation. have become so commonplace
sort of health club, up from ited uses that included mas- Yet overall, fitness has been health-club members reported Too steep of a discount risks re- that consumers are going to
about 10% a decade ago. sage parlors, billiards halls booming. More than 57 million household incomes exceeding pelling would-be sellers and im- keep using the service and the
Many of the new tenants at and pawnshops,” says Steven people belonged to a health $100,000 in 2016, according to periling the tender offer, which core business won’t be affected.
shopping centers are gyms Gartner, managing director of club last year—19.3% of the IHRSA, compared with 26% of lasts 20 business days. SoftBank The breach should have been
and specialty fitness studios retail at CBRE, the commercial U.S. population—and member- the overall population. can try again at a higher price if disclosed, Mr. Green said, but
that in some cases are barely real-estate services and in- ships have jumped 26% since Consumer spending at fit- its initial attempt fails. the executives who oversaw
bigger than a Starbucks store. vestment firm. If gyms were 2009, according to IHRSA. ness centers climbed 3.7% in It is in Uber’s interest to get that decision are now gone, and
But owners of regional malls allowed in malls at all, land- Gyms fit into a broader the third quarter over last year, the deal done. In October, the he said there is wide support
also are welcoming sprawling, lords often relegated them to push by mall owners to rein- according to Atlanta-based board passed a series of corpo- for the new chief executive.
full-service health clubs as an- back corners. vent themselves as centers of spending-data analysis firm rate-structure changes that “That was Uber 1.0,” Mr. Green
chor tenants, sometimes re- The fitness industry brings entertainment at a time when Cardlytics. Spending on ap- only kick in if the SoftBank con- said. Now, “this company is be-
placing the stores that once its own risks. Streaming fitness so much of apparel sales have parel at brick-and-mortar sortium reaches its 14% stake ing run by seasoned manage-
excluded them. services used remotely are on moved online. Landlords are stores rose 0.5%. threshold. The changes include ment,” he said.
GGP is replacing a Macy’s at the rise, and the growth of adding restaurants, ice-skating “We’re like the nice-looking revoking the supervoting rights Uber said no financial infor-
Oklahoma City’s Quail Springs health clubs is outpacing mem- rinks, pools and other recre- girl at the dance. Everybody of early investors, which mation was obtained in the
Mall with a 180,000-square- bership, according to the Inter- ational options to boost sag- wants to dance with us these granted them multiple votes breach and it has found no evi-
foot Life Time health club with national Health, Racquet & ging foot traffic. days,” says Dan Adelstein, vice per share, as well as expanding dence of fraudulent use of per-
indoor and outdoor pools and Sportsclub Association. Many There is also evidence that president of international de- the size of the board by six to sonal information. It said it
tennis courts. midprice gyms have struggled gyms might not be the retail velopment for Orangetheory 17 directors. SoftBank would was assured the stolen data
Years ago, health clubs to compete with boutique stu- repellent that mall owners long Fitness. get two of the new seats. As were destroyed.
BUSINESS NEWS
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THREE TRADING
THINGS YOU WANT,
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THREE THINGS.
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B4 | Monday, November 27, 2017 THE WALL STREET JOURNAL.
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Continued from page B1
dia as a cheap and effective
malaria prevention. Today,
CLASS ACTIONS we can see how one technol-
ogy, Facebook groups, can
serve as a lifeline for parents
CASE WESTERN RESERVE UNIVERSITY ARCHIVES
of children with rare dis-
eases while also radicalizing
political extremists.
There is no absolute good
!
or bad here, just how good
or bad a technology is in a
> 0 8 given context. This points to
8FA -H*, E @B 70 a problem tech companies
!" !#
$%& ' F -4 + - -4 are too often reluctant to
( &) *%+% *,-.* * + $.-' 7 7
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-! 8 tion to try to anticipate the
, / B%%& 8%B 9F&F
1 - +/ E *99% 990 potential impact of anything Melvin Kranzberg in the 1960s. He became a technology historian.
4 ) &) $ 5 (' H46/ B -4 they produce.
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sort of intrinsic power, and the U.S. and the former
!!/ 1 4 4 , $"' G"
2. “Invention is the it doesn’t,” says historian U.S.S.R.? Or was that conflict
2- +/3 ) 4 ) %4/ - mother of necessity.” Robert C. Post, who was itself driven by previous
/ ( 4 -7%0,FB BF-% E 8F&BF 70 Yes, that’s backward from Prof. Kranzberg’s friend and technological developments
- +/ 4 44 ## 6 - -4
4/ 4 )(/
the way you remember it. It colleague. “It has to be moti- that allowed Hitler to
7 7
means “every technical inno- vated by political power or threaten both nations?
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4 ) 1
tional technical advances to else.” 6. “Technology is a very
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make it fully effective,” Prof. Recently, representatives human activity.”
( (
7)) 4 ) Kranzberg wrote. in Congress declared their “Technology is capable of
7)) / &) / -8 &) In our modern world, the intention to force Alphabet doing great things,” Apple
( -8 9 -8 * -8 0
*) 14 ) invention of the smartphone Inc.’s Google, Facebook Inc. Inc. Chief Executive Tim
$ 2-8 &)3' 4
) - +/ 1 // 5: - 0 14 ( 41 has led to the necessity for and others to disclose who Cook said in his 2017 com-
; 6 ) - 0 4 14 countless other technologies, pays for political ads on mencement speech at MIT.
4 ) - +/ . - :4 *) 14 ( - from phone cases to 5G wire- their services, bringing them “But it doesn’t want to do
! ) ) 4 ( 7)) )4 0 14 6 1 ? 14 less. Apple’s cure for staring in line with television, radio great things—it doesn’t want
/ 4 ) 1 4 ( 1 7)) 1 -
0 04
at your phone too much? A and print. These disclosures anything.” The point, Mr.
) - +/ ! <4 1 1/ )
4 1 (4 ! smartwatch to glance at 100 were absent from internet ad Cook continued, is that de-
*) 14 ( 4 1
) / / 4 6 !1 ) 14 4 4 ( I4 ) :4
times a day. regulation not for any tech- spite its power, how we use
/ / ( 4 )
! nical reason, but because, in technology is up to us.
( ) 1= ) ( 4 ) *) 14 !1 3. “Technology comes in 2006, the Federal Election The trick is, because tech-
7))= / :4 14) ) - 0 14 packages, big and small.” Commission took a light nology generally reaches
/ ! : ( 4 1 1 / To understand any part of touch when regulating the mass adoption via corpora-
4 ) )4 / , 04 4 1 14 1 44 !41 1 14 a technological package re- new medium. tions, those businesses must
5/ 4/ ( ) 7))= 1 ! / 14 ( : 4 14
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quires looking at its interac- More broadly, lawmakers think of the consequences of
1 , / / -8 &) tion with and dependency on are taking an interest in pri- their actions as well as how
*) 14 1 - 0 14 !
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the rest of it, Prof. Kranz- vacy, data transparency, na- they profit from them.
, & 74 - 0 04= I4 ) ( berg wrote—including the tional security and antitrust Mr. Cook sets the tone at
- 0 ) !4 ) 1= ) / : 1 human beings essential to issues in tech—more because Apple, with his penchant for
$:4/ 1 &) )(/ 4 ) C4 how it functions. While inno- of a shift in our culture than public pronouncements
) 4 )5' 4 < 4 "
! vation destroys jobs, it also in the technology itself. about how the company pro-
- +/ . - 1 ) - 0 04
&) ) >4 4/ 41
creates countless new ones. tects users’ data. Google has
!
4 ) 5 )(/ Steel, oil and rail were the 5. “All history is rele- recently adopted antidis-
&) *%+% *,-.* *? + , 04 4 / 41 # # package of technologies that vant, but the history of crimination measures to
$.-' *? + ,/ 0? -8 9? ( !
dominated the 19th and early technology is the most rele- make artificial intelligence
-8 *? -8 0 I4 ) ( ) 1=) 4
) / : , / 1 20th centuries, especially in vant.” less racist. Facebook now
) 7 - $23' ( 4 <4 4 (4 )4 America, just as the internet, The Cold War led to the has teams dedicated to pri-
- 0 ! " mobile phones and wireless buildup of nuclear weapons vacy, security and safety that
, / *) 14 ! 14 )
! - 0 ( - 0 14 4/ 1 ) connectivity are transform- and the missiles to deliver review new services before
*) 14 ! ( 4 14 / // ing the 21st century. them anywhere on Earth. they’re rolled out.
! 14 1 1 That led to the development As Prof. Kranzberg pre-
(((47,49/ 1 / *) 14 ! I4 4 / 14 1 4. “Although technology of a war-proof communica- sciently noted at the dawn of
(/ )(/ - 0 09 04 - 0 04 5 ! # might be a prime element tion system: the internet. the internet age, “Many of
@/1 7 A
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in many public issues, non- Many related innovations our technology-related prob-
7B%,* 9A%B,C +%9*D%. & ! technical factors take pre- subsequently seeped into ev- lems arise because of the un-
E 70A*F- 997
F 01 0 7F +:
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7 % "
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, $'
/ -4 &! “People think technology owe the modern world to the gies are employed on a mas-
as an abstraction has some existential contest between sive scale.”
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To reprint or license content, please contact our reprints and licensing department at +1 800-843-0008 or www.djreprints.com
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B6 | Monday, November 27, 2017 NY * *** THE WALL STREET JOURNAL.
MEDIA
Disney’s ‘Coco’ Tops Holiday Weekend BY BEN FRITZ $93.6 million and $82.1 million, but until January. That is due
respectively, over the Thanks- to differing schedules for
In what’s becoming a holi- giving weekend. But it was school holidays, said Disney
day tradition, Walt Disney Co. above 2010’s successful “Tan- distribution chief Dave Hollis.
won Thanksgiving weekend at gled,” which made its debut to Its domestic success comes
the box office with a new fam- $68.7 million on the holiday as the once-reliable Pixar has
ily animated film. weekend and Pixar’s 2013 flop had a mixed track record at
“Coco,” from the company’s “The Good Dinosaur,” which the box office recently, with
Pixar Animation Studios, started with $55.5 million. this summer’s disappointment
opened to a healthy $71.2 mil- Perhaps most important for “Cars 3” and “The Good Dino-
lion in the U.S. and Canada be- Disney and Pixar, “Coco” saur” bracketing the 2016 hit
tween Wednesday and Sunday, earned overwhelmingly posi- “Finding Dory.”
according to studio estimates. tive reviews and audiences For the holiday weekend,
That put it ahead of the su- gave it an average grade of A+, “Justice League” declined 57%
perhero team-up “Justice according to market research from its soft $93.8 million
League,” which grossed $59.6 firm CinemaScore. That means opening. That is less than the
million over the same period it is positioned well for a long 69% and 67% drops for 2016’s
and family drama “Wonder,” box-office run driven by “Batman v Superman” and
DISNEY-PIXAR/ASSOCIATED PRESS
TIME
creates opportunities as well as risks. CME Group is undergoing profound
gives producers and suppliers the tools they need changes as print advertising
to capture these opportunities while managing risks revenues continue to decline
and publishers face off with
in volatile oil and natural gas markets. This is how Continued from page B1 tech giants for online ad dol-
the energy industry can deliver in the face of ever- lion paid subscriptions, which lars. Meredith is betting team-
changing consumer demand. This is how the world will account for one-quarter of ing up with Time will give it
revenue. more scale online to compete
advances. Learn more at cmegroup.com/fuel. This is at least the third with Alphabet Inc.’s Google
time Meredith has attempted and Facebook Inc., which are
to buy Time. Meredith made a projected to account for more
run earlier this year but than 63% of U.S. digital adver-
couldn’t secure enough financ- tising spending this year, ac-
ing, and Time in late April cording to eMarketer.
ended the sales process. Mere- The impact has been dra-
dith was also in talks to buy a matic, especially on smaller
number of Time titles in 2013 publishers, contributing to
that ended with Time Warner consolidation in the magazine
Inc. instead spinning off Time industry. Most recently, Hearst
Inc. into a separate publicly agreed to acquire family-
traded company. owned magazine publisher
This time around, Meredith Rodale Inc., and Jann Wenner
approached Time with a fully is seeking to sell his majority
financed offer, including $650 stake in Rolling Stone.
million from a private-equity Time Inc. has been invest-
unit of Koch Industries called ing in online video and
Koch Equity Development. branded content, yet its print
The backing of the Koch magazine circulation and ad-
brothers, together with a vertising still account for
group of bank lenders, imme- about two-thirds of total reve-
diately gave Meredith’s re- nue. In the first nine months
newed effort greater weight. of the year, magazine revenue
Koch Industries is one of the dropped 17% to $1.3 billion.
largest privately owned com- Time Inc. claims 30 million
panies in the U.S., and the two print subscribers. Time ex-
billionaire brothers who con- pects to generate about $1 bil-
trol it, Charles Koch and David lion this year in nonmagazine
Koch, are known for support- revenue.
ing conservative causes. Meredith’s own magazine
Mr. Harty described the revenue has slipped slightly,
Koch investment as “passive” but it has somewhat of a buf-
and said the firm “won’t have fer thanks to its ownership of
any influence on Meredith’s local television stations. For
operations, including edito- the fiscal year ended June 30,
rial.” Koch Industries, he revenue at its magazine group
added, has expressed no inter- fell 2% to $1.08 billion, while
est in acquiring any individual its TV station group saw reve-
Time Inc. titles. nue rise 15% to $630 million.
Mr. Lacy said he has never Meredith describes itself as
met with the Koch brothers. a business whose “cornerstone
“They won’t have a seat on the is knowledge of the home,
board of which I chair,” he family, food and lifestyle mar-
added. kets.” Such Time titles as Real
A representative for Koch Simple, InStyle and People, as
Industries didn’t immediately well as Cooking Light, South-
respond to a request for com- ern Living, and Well Done, a
ment. social video brand, will all fit
The magazine industry, like neatly alongside Meredith’s
the broader media landscape, current portfolio.
GARY HERSHORN/GETTY IMAGES
CME Group is a trademark of CME Group Inc. The Globe logo is a trademark of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.
Copyright © 2017 CME Group. All rights reserved.
For personal non-commercial use only. Do not edit or alter. Reproductions not permitted.
To reprint or license content, please contact our reprints and licensing department at +1 800-843-0008 or www.djreprints.com
THE WALL STREET JOURNAL. Monday, November 27, 2017 | B7
HNA Deal
Under Fire
Highland Loses Ruling on Ouster
Arbitration panel says public recently in a lawsuit ing in court against another
ment advisory firm Bravia between Highland investment standing at Highland, manag-
Capital. vehicles and to delay repaying
over the past several ing more than $10 billion of
The regulator said their money owed to Highland in- years for the firm. the firm’s assets under man-
share holdings were actually vestors, the Dallas arbitration agement, until his abrupt fir-
12.01% and 17.15%, respec- panel determined in October. ing, according to the ruling.
tively, not 12.35% and 17.4%, Mr. Terry believed the plan James Dondero in 2011. He fired Highland’s Josh Terry last year. The conflict started in 2016
as HNA had claimed in the of- was a breach of his fiduciary with junk credit ratings and when Mr. Dondero instructed
fer prospectus. duty to Highland clients and him, Highland sued Mr. Terry, The relationship never hap- managed about $39 billion at Mr. Terry to lend $17 million
HNA also failed to disclose an external lawyer hired by who had been trying to collect pened and “this allegation was its peak in 2007. The firm took from an investment fund Mr.
that the two were holding the firm sided with him retirement investments from based solely on someone’s fan- heavy losses in the financial Terry managed to another
stakes on behalf of the com- against Mr. Dondero, accord- his former employer. Highland tasy related to costumes they crisis, leading to the liquida- Highland fund to pay for the
pany’s co-founders, including ing to the panel. alleged Mr. Terry had acted wore to an office Halloween tion of several of its hedge acquisition of a Brazilian latex
Chen Feng, Wang Jian and “Dondero was simply angry against the interests of inves- party,” the panel stated. Two funds and to multiple lawsuits. manufacturer, according to the
Adam Tan, who should have and realized Terry was not a tors in a fund he managed and other sexual relationships Its assets under management ruling. Mr. Dondero also
been listed as the beneficial ‘yes man’ willing to let Don- that he had sexual relation- Highland alleged Mr. Terry have shrunk to $13.5 billion, planned to postpone a $56
owners of the shares, the reg- dero have his wrongheaded ships with several subordi- had with co-workers were in- according to a company web- million payment owed in May
ulator said. way,” the panel found in its nates. The court ordered the significant in one case and un- site. 2016 to investors in other
“We cooperated fully with ruling. “So Dondero fired two parties to arbitration. proven in the other, according Highland also lost an arbi- Highland funds, the panel
the Swiss Takeover Board’s Terry on the spot and later Mr. Terry never caused to the arbitrators. tration in 2016 against inves- found.
inquiry, and we respect its sought to characterize Terry’s damage or loss to the fund The panel said Mr. Dondero tors in one of its hedge funds Mr. Terry opposed the plan
authority in this matter,” a termination of employment Highland alleged he misman- retrospectively constructed a who alleged they had been to delay repaying money owed
spokesman for HNA said. ‘for cause’.” aged, according to the arbitra- pretext for the firing to justify cheated out of millions of dol- to clients. In early June 2016,
HNA will pay operating The panel also found Mr. tion ruling. The arbitration not paying Mr. Terry $5.7 mil- lars. The firm subsequently an internal Highland commit-
costs of 50,000 Swiss francs Terry “did not prove that the panel, made up of three for- lion he was owed by Highland. reached an agreement with tee approved the Brazilian ac-
($51,000) and could face sole reason for his termination mer Texas district court Arbitrators awarded Mr. Terry the investors. Separately, a quisition but required the $56
monetary penalties for failing was his refusal to commit an judges, also determined that $7.9 million in damages and New York State Supreme Court million obligation be paid
to provide complete informa- illegal act.” The panel didn’t Highland’s accusation that Mr. interest. judge in April dismissed a law- without further delay.
tion during the takeover. The rule on whether Mr. Dondero’s Terry had sex with a junior “The arbitration award suit by the firm accusing an That left Mr. Dondero with
size of such a potential pen- plan would constitute a breach lawyer at the firm and in- speaks for itself,” said Rogge investor of libel, a ruling High- less money to fund his plan
alty, if one is imposed, hasn’t of fiduciary duty. volved her in alleged financial Dunn, Mr. Terry’s attorney. land is appealing. and he promptly fired Mr.
been made clear. Three months after it fired improprieties was “offensive.” The decision was made Highland also is still fight- Terry, the panel determined.
EXPIRATION
HLIEX GBOSX GAOSX JPIN
DATE jpmorgan.com/funds/4solutions
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B8 | Monday, November 27, 2017 THE WALL STREET JOURNAL.
MARKETS DIGEST
Dow Jones Industrial Average S&P 500 Index New to the Market
Last Year ago
23557.99 s 199.75, or 0.86% last week Trailing P/E ratio 20.74 20.89 2602.42 s 23.57, or 0.91% last week Trailing P/E ratio 24.49 24.35
Last Year ago
Public Offerings of Stock
High, low, open and close for each of P/E estimate * 19.35 17.86 High, low, open and close for each of P/E estimate * 19.50 18.45
Dividend yield 2.19 2.48 Dividend yield 1.92 2.12
IPOs in the U.S. Market
the past 52 weeks the past 52 weeks
All-time high 23590.83, 11/21/17 All-time high: 2602.42, 11/24/17 None expected this week
Big Rock Ptnrs Acquisition 10.03 0.3 0.2 SailPoint Tech 15.80 31.7 21.5
200-day moving average BRPAU Nov. 20/$10.00 SAIL Nov. 17/$12.00
Week's low 2000
17000 AMERI Hldgs 3.25 –21.1 –6.9 scPharmaceuticals 14.07 0.5 –0.2
AMRH Nov. 17/$4.12 SCPH Nov. 17/$14.00
Bars measure the point change from Monday's open
Bluegreen Vacations 14.25 1.8 9.6 Sterling Bancorp 12.82 6.8 5.4
16000 1900 BXG Nov. 17/$14.00 SBT Nov. 17/$12.00
N D J F M A M J J A S O N N D J F M A M J J A S O N Legacy Acquisition 10.00 ... ... Stitch Fix 18.62 24.1 22.9
LGC.U Nov. 17/$10.00 SFIX Nov. 17/$15.00
Primary
NYSE weekly volume, in billions of shares market Composite Level Brands 5.50 –8.3 –0.9 Arsanis 16.57 65.7 18.1
t
t
Nasdaq Stock Market Performance Food Group Nov. 20 $141.3 ... Barclays
6800 Food & Beverage Nov. 16,316
Nasdaq Composite 6890.02 6779.49 6889.16 106.37 1.57 5251.11 l 6889.16 27.6 28.0 13.2
Nasdaq 100 6410.77 6301.88 6409.29 94.78 1.50 4734.10 l 6409.29 31.6 31.8 14.4
Standard & Poor's
6750 Public and Private Borrowing
17 20 21 22 23 24
500 Index 2604.21 2578.24 2602.42 23.57 0.91 2191.08 l 2602.42 17.6 16.2 7.9 November Treasurys
MidCap 400 1863.97 1839.40 1859.19 18.45 1.00 1623.28 l 1859.19 13.3 12.0 8.5 DJ US TSM Monday, November 27 Tuesday, November 28
SmallCap 600 930.89 909.07 927.25 18.34 2.02 808.59 l 927.81 12.4 10.7 10.6 s 272.32, or 1.02% Auction of 13 and 26 week bills; Auction of 4 week bill;
Other Indexes last week announced on November 22; settles on November 30announced on November 27; settles on November 30
Russell 2000 1524.18 1492.93 1519.16 26.34 1.76 1313.80 l 1519.16 12.8 11.9 8.6 Auction of 2 year note; Auction of 7 year note;
0.97 l 12430.52 announced on November 22; settles on November 30announced on November 22; settles on November 30
NYSE Composite 12431.69 12294.96 12421.94 119.05 10808.63 14.2 12.3 4.0
Value Line 550.25 542.63 549.04 6.28 1.16 496.60 l
549.04 8.7 8.5 2.9 26975 Auction of 5 year note;
announced on November 22; settles on November 30
NYSE Arca Biotech 4225.66 4106.03 4217.84 67.83 1.63 3075.02 l
4304.77 25.3 37.2 7.4
NYSE Arca Pharma 538.74 531.24 538.23 3.71 0.69 463.78 l 560.52 13.5 11.8 -0.3 26850
KBW Bank 100.01 98.88 98.92 -0.27 -0.27 85.30 l 102.31 13.8 7.8 10.5 Public and Municipal Finance
PHLX§ Gold/Silver 82.15 79.69 81.11 0.24 0.29 73.03 l 96.72 2.5 2.9 3.7 Deals of $ 150 million or more expected this week
26725
PHLX§ Oil Service 132.74 129.57 131.64 0.33 0.25 117.79 l 192.66 -21.5 -28.4 -19.0 Final Total Rating Bookrunner/
PHLX§ Semiconductor 1342.05 1311.35 1341.69 34.76 2.66 836.79 l 1341.69 50.6 48.0 26.1 Sale maturity Issuer ($mil.) Fitch Moody’s S&P Bond Counsel(s)
CBOE Volatility 12.08 8.56 9.67 -1.76 -15.40 9.14 l 16.04 -21.6 -31.1 -8.5 26600
17 20 21 22 23 24 Nov. 28 Dec. 1, 2042 Illinois 750.0 N.R. N.R. N.R. Preliminary/
Philadelphia Stock Exchange Sources: SIX Financial Information; WSJ Market Data Group November
Chapman and Cutler LLP
International Stock Indexes Commodities and Nov. 29 June 1, 2030 Washington 190.1 N.R. N.R. N.R. Preliminary/
3.00 Yen
t 1.50 –5 System
Orlando, FL 407-422-7129
New car loan 2.50 De Witt Savings Bank 2.45% 0.75 –10 s Dec. 1 prelim.
One year ago Texas A&M 360.0 N.R. N.R. N.R. Barclays/—
t
CLOSED-END FUNDS
wsj.com/funds
Currencies
49
1998, during the run-up to the which has been dominated by U.S.-dollar foreign-exchange rates in late New York trading
US$vs, US$vs,
dot-com bubble, it took 35 towering tech-stock gains in Fri YTDchg Fri YTDchg
trading sessions for the S&P general and by chip stocks in Country/currency in US$ per US$ (%) Country/currency in US$ per US$ (%)
500 to vault from 1000 over particular. Both Micron and Americas Europe
1100, a 10% advance. Nvidia have more than Argentina peso .0576 17.3482 9.3 Czech Rep. koruna .04689 21.328 –17.0
Under the hood, technology doubled in price to help the Brazil real .3092 3.2341 –0.6 Denmark krone .1603 6.2382 –11.8
The number of trading sessions it took the stocks were the biggest S&P 500’s tech sector rise Canada dollar .7866 1.2713 –5.4 Euro area euro 1.1932 .8381 –11.8
contributors to the rally’s 39%. By market value, the Chile peso .001577 634.10 –5.3 Hungary forint .003822 261.63 –11.1
S&P 500 to rise 100 points to close above Ecuador US dollar 1 1 unch Iceland krona .009724 102.84 –9.0
S&P 500 is now one-quarter
2600, the second-quickest 100-point MONEYBEAT technology stocks, compared
Mexico peso
Uruguay peso
.0539 18.5553 –10.5
.03406 29.3600 0.03
Norway krone
Poland zloty
.1230 8.1280 –6.0
.2835 3.5275 –15.7
milestone on record with 14% for each of the next Venezuela b. fuerte .097334 10.2740 2.8 Russia ruble .01713 58.394 –4.7
latest push. The S&P 500’s two sectors, financial and Asia-Pacific Sweden krona .1208 8.2760 –9.1
tech stocks rose 11% during health-care stocks. That Switzerland franc 1.0206 .9798 –3.8
Australian dollar .7615 1.3132 –5.4
the 49-day run, roughly double means continued strength in Turkey lira .2536 3.9437 11.9
China yuan .1516 6.5983 –5.0
Ukraine hryvnia .0373 26.8284 –0.9
the 5.4% advance for financial- tech stocks could Hong Kong dollar .1281 7.8083 0.7
1.3332 .7501 –7.4
WSJ
Singapore dollar South Africa rand
another round number as it century milestone in fewer In that respect, the latest MoneyBeat blog South Korea won .0009211 1085.64 –10.1
continues its virtually than 50 days. milestone serves as a posts, go to Sri Lanka rupee .0065036 153.76 3.6 Close Net Chg % Chg YTD%Chg
unhindered ascent in 2017. The It was the second-fastest microcosm for the U.S. stock .COM blogs.wsj.com/ Taiwan dollar .03337 29.970 –7.7 WSJ Dollar Index 86.41 –0.11–0.13 –7.02
benchmark eclipsed the hurdle such climb on record. Back in market’s performance all year, MoneyBeat Thailand baht .03062 32.660 –8.8 Sources: Tullett Prebon, WSJ Market Data Group
Vietnam dong .00004400 22725 –0.2
Earnings expected* estimate up 3.0% EIA report: natural gas Total vehicle sales
Estimate/Year Ago($) 3d quarter second Previous change in stocks in domestically produced,
billions of cubic feet
Thor Industries 1.84/1.49 estimate up 3.3% at an annual rate
down 46
Oct., previous 18.09 mil.
GDP Deflator Chicago PMI Nov., expected 17.5 mil.
Tuesday
3rd quarter advance Oct., previous 66.2
Consumer confidence Nov., expected 63 Construction spending
estimate up 2.2%
Oct., previous 125.9 Sept., previous up 0.3%
3rd quarter second
Nov., expected 123.5 Personal income Oct., expected up 0.5%
estimate up 2.2%
Sept., previous up 0.4%
Earnings expected* Oct., expected up 0.3% ISM mfg. index
Earnings expected*
Estimate/Year Ago($) Estimate/Year Ago($) Oct., previous 58.7
Autodesk (0.13)/(0.18) Guidewire Software Personal spending Nov., expected 58.2
Marvell Tech 0.33/0.20 (0.14)/0.02 Sept., previous up 1.0%
* FACTSET ESTIMATES EARNINGS-PER-SHARE ESTIMATES DON’T INCLUDE EXTRAORDINARY ITEMS (LOSSES IN PARENTHESES) ADJUSTED FOR
STOCK SPLIT NOTE: FORECASTS ARE FROM DOW JONES WEEKLY SURVEY OF ECONOMISTS An Ulta Beauty store in Manhattan. The company is expected to report higher profit on Thursday.
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THE WALL STREET JOURNAL. Monday, November 27, 2017 | B11
MARKETS
The Dow’s Lightweight Title
General Electric’s 2017 fall 42%, erasing more than $100 Street's most-famous handful of others, including
from grace has earned the billion in market value. price-weighted major the current Dow-weight
Boston conglomerate a Yet as significant as GE’s average (others are value leader, Boeing. It's not time
historic if unsought distinc- challenges are—the firm this weighted). to turn out the lights on the
tion as the lowest-weighted month halved its dividend Yes, GE stock has slumped lone remaining original Dow
stock in the Dow Jones and rolled back financial into the teens from the low component just yet.
Industrial Average. While the guidance—its place in the $30s, but it remains more
Dow has surged 19% this basement underscores the valuable than 10 other Dow
year, GE shares have dropped quirks of the Dow as Wall stocks and is not far behind a
200
Alcoa removed
from the Dow
100
General
Motors
removed
from the
Dow
INTEL GM GM ALCOA ALCOA BANK OF AMERICA ALCOA CISCO CISCO GE GE CISCO GE GE
0
2007 ’08 ’09 ’10 ’11 ’12 ’13 ’14 ’15 ’16 ’17
Dow components’ current weighting ( ) and share of total market value ( ) Apple’s market value
is greater than the
Microsoft is the combined value of the four
second-largest stock components that are more
10% heavily weighted.
in the Dow, but ranks
No. 20 in weighting.
5
General Cisco Coca-Cola Merck DowDuPont Microsoft American J.P. Morgan Visa United Caterpillar IBM Home UnitedHealth Goldman
Electric Systems Express Chase Technologies Depot Group Sachs Group
Pfizer Intel Verizon Nike Exxon Procter & Wal-Mart Walt Chevron Travelers Johnson McDonald's Apple 3M Boeing
Communications Mobil Gamble Stores Disney & Johnson
*Weekly data
Sources: WSJ Market Data Group (lowest-weighted); FactSet (market value, weighting) By Tom DeStefano and Peter Santilli/THE WALL STREET JOURNAL.
Email: heard@wsj.com
HEARD ON THE STREET FINANCIAL ANALYSIS & COMMENTARY WSJ.com/Heard
160
In Low-Rate Times
Oil Talks 140
Why are stocks so
expensive? In part it may
come down to a behavioral
experiment again and told
people they would get a
payment based on the
Before the formalities begin 120 quirk that could be putting success of their hypothetical
this week in Vienna, the only the market at risk. investment (with a computer
question oil ministers will have 100 The stock market is rich program determining how
left is who pays for the Sacher by just about any valuation the risky asset performed).
torte. measure, and by some The results were identical, as
80
That is unusual for normally excessively so. Given how was a similar experiment
fractious meetings of the Or- 2006 ’07 ’08 ’09 ’10 ’11 ’12 ’13 ’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 low interest rates are, there with Harvard Business
ganization of the Petroleum Ex- Source: Bank for International Settlements THE WALL STREET JOURNAL. is some sense to that: When School students.
porting Countries. Even less the average on the 10-year Why do people behave
SHOPPING
FOR
THE TRUTH
FALSE TRUE
JOURNAL REPORT
F
THE WALL STREET JOURNAL.
The Eollow Monday, November 27, 2017 | R1
Onlinxperts
© 2017 Dow Jones & Company. All Rights Reserved.
wsj.c e
om/e at
x perts
An Entrepreneur
With Autism
Finds His
Own Path
For Chris Tidmarsh, the
key is building a support
network to help execute
his vision
they can’t handle and Speaks, an advocacy nary classes and began working with a pastry
BY CLARE ANSBERRY
delegate those tasks and support organiza- chef. Many people on the spectrum, in fact, are
C
to others. But they tion, which has a busi- chefs, along with craftsmen, locksmiths and
HRIS TIDMARSH CO-OWNS Green know how to execute ness-accelerator pro- candle makers.
Bridge Growers, a commercial their vision. That is gram. Mr. Cottle found his vocation in baking and
greenhouse in north central Indiana difficult for Mr. Tid- By launching their started Stuttering King Bakery, which sup-
that provides herbs, lettuces and marsh. He has a own companies, peo- plies muffins and scones to local coffee shops,
nasturtiums to local restaurants, and dream but leans on ple on the spectrum corporate events and farmers markets. He is li-
sunflowers and cosmos to florists. his mother and a net- can create a work en- censed and works out of a large kitchen in the
He has degrees in chemistry, environmental work of supporters to vironment that fits home he shares with his parents. His mother,
studies and French. He has a passion for agri- plot and fulfill it. their comfort level Peg, handles orders and marketing.
culture. He also fits a very rare profile for an It is a story shared and doesn’t force “For someone on the spectrum to be able to
entrepreneur. He has autism. by many other entre- them to navigate the make it, they really have to have someone else
The 30-year-old created the company in preneurs with autism traditional, heavily so- who has a real high investment in their suc-
2013 with his mother—and co-owner—Jan Pi- spectrum disorder, a cial office setting. cess, and usually that is going to be family,”
larski, after a promising job as an environmen- condition affecting Very often, though, says Ms. Cottle.
tal researcher ended abruptly because he had about one in 68 chil- their key to success is
difficulties communicating. That left him with dren and 1% to 2% of not to try for indepen- Approaching the puzzle
the choice of either trying to find a more suit- the overall population dence, but to build up Mr. Tidmarsh, the oldest of four children,
able job or, with the help of his family, creat- in the U.S. Starting a a network of support- was diagnosed with autism as a preschooler,
ing a business that would capitalize on his successful business is ers who will help when a caregiver noted that he seemed in his
skills. no small task for any- them with the busi- own world and uninterested in family mem-
They chose the latter. “My mom does most one, but those on the ness. bers coming and leaving the house. Since he
of the administration,” says Mr. Tidmarsh, in- autism spectrum face “It’s how interde- was their first child, Ms. Pilarski says that she
cluding accounting, marketing and sales. He challenges that others pendent can you get,” and her husband, Jay, likely missed the signifi-
perfects the spacing between rows of kale and don’t. Many have dif- says Mr. Raede. “Try cance of behavior that might have concerned
spinach, and keeps close tabs on water chemis- ficulties with execu- Top photo: Chris Tidmarsh working with to get as many people more-experienced parents.
try and soil acidity. He spends hours research- tive functioning—the floating hydroponic raft beds. Bottom you can rely on, not For most of his childhood and teen years,
ing natural and effective pesticides to deal ability to follow mul- photo: Mr. Tidmarsh at a greenhouse con- one. I want to have the couple focused on the most immediate
with aphids. The solution: 4,500 ladybugs. tiple steps to com- taining lettuce and herbs, and trays of seeds 10,000 people I know next step—elementary school, middle school,
Ms. Pilarski often explains how they created plete a task. They for the company’s larger greenhouses. and can rely on.” high school and college—while also raising
and run the business to groups of parents may also have a lim- His online commu- their other three children and working. Jay
whose children have autism, to show that it is ited ability to follow rules of social interac- nity is built on that concept, offering support Tidmarsh teaches law at the University of
possible. “There is a deep, deep need for hope tion—like maintaining eye contact or shaking groups and online courses to facilitate learning Notre Dame, and Jan ran a social-justice pro-
and jobs,” she says. hands—or to read facial expressions to let on a mass scale. gram at St. Mary’s College.
them know what someone might be feeling or One of the best ways those supporters can Chris Tidmarsh received his three degrees
A network of support thinking. Sometimes they can type what is in help someone on the spectrum become self from Hope College, a small liberal-arts school
In many ways, Mr. Tidmarsh’s path to entre- their head, but are unable to say it. employed is to identify and build on their in Holland, Mich. After graduating in 2010, he
preneurship resembles that of others starting They know how to work, explains Danny skills instead of trying to change behavior or got a job as an environmental researcher. But
their own business. He has a wide breadth of Raede, chief executive of the Asperger Ex- have them do something they can’t, says Cary it didn’t last.
knowledge and a vision of what he wants to perts online community, who was diagnosed Griffin, co-founder of Griffin-Hammis Associ- “I was doing a lot of office work and behind
accomplish. He is a mentor to those working with Asperger Syndrome, an autism-spectrum ates, a Florence, Mont., consulting firm that the computer. I’m not the best with that style.
alongside him. The results are promising. disorder, at age 12. But “their brains won’t let specializes in developing self-employment op- They generally communicate verbally, and I’m
Green Bridge is projecting revenue of $80,000 them.” portunities for people with disabilities. If a more of a visual learner,” says Mr. Tidmarsh,
and profit of $30,000 in fiscal year 2018. In So, jobs are few for people on the spectrum, person can’t manage bookkeeping or market- who struggles at times to find and say the
fiscal 2020, when an expansion is complete, it and adults with the condition have an esti- ing, for instance, others can. right word. He’s better at following directions
expects to reach $220,000 in revenue and mated 80% to 90% unemployment rate. “One of Often, it’s a parent or sibling. When Matt when they are written in emails and texts. It is
$72,000 in profit. the ways people choose to address this is by Cottle, 28, of Phoenix learned that he couldn’t harder when they are spoken.
In other ways, though, his journey is very creating a business that allows them to be self- be a Marine like his father and brother be- After three months, he was let go. “I felt
different. Other entrepreneurs may know what employed,” says Angela Geiger, CEO of Autism cause he was on the spectrum, he took culi- Please turn to the next page
INSIDE
SAFETYTAT
CHILDREN’S TATTOOS—WITH
A MESSAGE
Taking children to an amusement park can be a stressful
experience. Michele Welsh found a way to ease her fears—
and turned it into a booming business.
On Labor Day weekend in 2008, Ms. Welsh and her hus-
band, Robert, took their three children to Hersheypark in
Pennsylvania. As they walked in the park, her excitement
quickly turned into panic: The place was packed, and she
BRIAN STAUFFER
could barely hold on to her children’s hands. Worried that
they might get lost, and desperately searching for a quick so-
lution in case they did, Ms. Welsh grabbed a ballpoint pen
and wrote her cellphone number on their arms.
Six parents stopped her that day, asking to borrow her
Researchers say that rules designed to protect disclosures. Some outfits ad-
vise startups themselves about
pen and write their cell numbers on their children’s arms. On
the long car ride home to Baltimore, she reflected on how
individuals from scams have too many loopholes regulations and disclosures.
Investor education and due
that ballpoint pen made everyone feel better.
That winter, the Welshes went on vacation with her
diligence and disclosure are brother and his family, and all the children wanted temporary
pendent audit reports. The law tors who aren’t legitimate. time consuming and increase tattoos. A few weeks later, everything clicked. With a back-
BY LOUISE LEE
also says a startup doesn’t re- And requiring a startup to the cost of crowdfunding but ground in marketing and graphic design, Ms. Welsh designed
ceive actual funds until it at- secure enough pledges to may be worthwhile in the long temporary tattoos for children with a space to display a
LETTING SMALL investors buy tracts enough investors to reach its fundraising target term, the researchers say. If phone number.
shares in startups sounds like reach its fundraising goal. And doesn’t protect investors, the many people lose money Ms. Welsh self-financed her startup with an initial invest-
a great way for budding com- the law assumes that scrutiny researchers say. That require- through crowdfunding, overall ment of $50,000, and filed a provisional patent and set up a
panies to raise cash. But it by many investors weeds out ment is intended to force a funding opportunities for en- website, which went live in January 2009. Initially, the web-
could be dangerous for the fraudulent operations. startup to satisfy many inves- trepreneurs may decline, says site offered an interface that allowed customers to customize
people putting up the money. But the researchers say that tors to hit a single lofty goal. Dr. Mitteness. “People are just the message or phone number on their tattoos. Once the
In a paper published in the because many small investors But swindlers can get around going to assume that every- company started selling through retailers, it added a Quick
journal Business Horizons, Me- simply aren’t sophisticated the rule by creating multiple thing is a fraud,” she says. Stick Write-on with which customers customize the product
lissa S. Baucus, formerly of the enough to evaluate a startup, smaller ventures with more-at- Nicholas Tommarello, CEO after it has been delivered.
University of Otago in New they could be sucked into in- tainable funding targets, list- of Wefunder Inc., a public-ben- Ms. Welsh has branched out to use the tattoos to alert
Zealand, and Cheryl R. Mitte- vesting in a company that’s ing them on various portals efit corporation that runs a others about a child’s allergies or medical conditions such as
ness of Northeastern Univer- fraudulent. Making startups under different names, and crowdfunding portal, says to diabetes and autism. Her products are sold in about 200
sity say it’s easy for swindlers provide documentation and collecting funds from each. his knowledge “there has not children’s boutiques in the U.S. and 24 internationally as well
to circumvent safeguards in audit reports may not suffi- While the law requires been one case where fraud has as AAA travel stores and a few amusement parks. SafetyTat
the Jumpstart Our Business ciently shield investors, the re- crowdfunding portals to vet taken place” since equity recently reached a milestone: two million tattoos have been
Startups Act, the 2012 federal searchers say. The required startup officers, they vary crowdfunding was permitted. sold.
law allowing startups to raise level of disclosure is lower greatly in the level of due dili- Regulations, he says, are al- One of the most satisfying aspects of the business has
up to $1 million annually from than that for a company plan- gence they actually perform, ready extensive and rigorous, been the feedback from customers, Ms. Welsh says. Safe-
retail investors. “There’s too ning an initial public offering, the researchers say. They ar- while fraud such as faking fi- tyTat runs a share-your-story contest every year. One winner
much opportunity” for shady the researchers say, and swin- gue that crowdfunding portals nancial documents carries was a parent who took her two daughters to the Pacific Sci-
projects, says Dr. Baucus, now dlers can fabricate documents should as an industry agree on penalties far outweighing po- ence Center in Seattle. She had just noticed her younger
at Texas State University. that appear legitimate. standard processes by which tential return. Meanwhile, he daughter was missing and started looking for her when her
The study didn’t catalog in- Nor are audited financial they research startups and ed- says, thinking that investors phone started to buzz. Her 4-year-old daughter had immedi-
stances of fraud. Instead, it ex- statements necessarily reli- ucate investors about the risks can’t make informed decisions ately alerted the front desk that she was lost, and security
plored rules covering so-called able. Some firms create the ap- of investing in them. is “paternalistic.” And, in fact, used the number on the tattoo.
equity-based crowdfunding to pearance of proper auditing by The researchers say inves- many investors come from the Ms. Welsh says, “I know the tattoos are fun for kids and
find potential loopholes that funneling funds into legitimate tors can turn to outside re- founder’s own social network. give parents peace of mind. But what I hadn’t thought about
criminals could exploit. companies that use reputable sources to find information is how the children don’t panic when they lose sight of their
The JOBS Act requires auditors. Some fraudulent about startups; portals can Ms. Lee is a writer in parents.”
startups to disclose extensive firms produce fake audit re- also get outside help with vet- Palo Alto, Calif. Email –Barbara Haislip
financial documents and inde- ports or statements from audi- ting startups and providing reports@wsj.com.
wasn’t stressed that way,” he says. “It was for Mr. Tidmarsh and his family. He says that
hard for us to have this young man with a lot he has become more comfortable conducting
of ability unable to use it. That was really con- tours of the greenhouse. He has also addressed
cerning. I really believe in the importance of large audiences, speaking in front of advocacy
work. It’s a part of who you are.” groups and gatherings at Notre Dame and St.
Over many meals, Chris Tidmarsh and his Mary’s, including graduate speech-pathology
family talked about what he loved doing most. classes. The goal is to help them understand
He interned at an organic farm, became a mas- the difficulties that those on the autism spec-
ter gardener and took a class designed to help trum have communicating.
people become farmers. Until recently, Mr. Tidmarsh lived with his
“I’ve been really interested in the environ- parents. Now he has moved into a house with
ment and Earth for a long time,” Mr. Tidmarsh a friend who is also on the spectrum. His par-
says. “I decided I wanted to do something re- ents pay for his housing, but he hopes that will
lated to that.” When the group pre- Chris Tidmarsh and his mother, nonprofit, they raised money change. “My goal is to be self-sufficient,” he
He and his mother, who grew up on a farm, sented the plan to the com- Jan Pilarski, plant kale seeds at through donors and a crowd- says, as well as help to employ others on the
began researching options. They visited a soft- petition judges, Mr. Tid- one of Green Bridge Growers’ funding campaign, which spectrum.
ware business set up by the family of a young marsh spoke about greenhouses. they added to a $10,000 en- Toward that end, he is mentoring workers
man on the spectrum, and talked at length unemployment problems trepreneur-of-the-year award at Green Bridge. Matt Coleman, Mr. Tidmarsh’s
about how they made it viable. They also vis- faced by people on the autism spectrum and won by Mr. Tidmarsh. longtime friend and now his roommate, works
ited several farms, including one that used an described his own experience. Finding land that met zoning regulations alongside him, planting and harvesting, and
aquaponics process, where fish’s waste is used They won the social-impact prize, which and offered access to water and electricity, and monitoring water levels. Adam Rousculp, who
to fertilize plants that grow in water, while the provided $15,000 as well as legitimacy. “It re- room for growth, was more difficult than they is also on the spectrum, feeds the fish and
plants clean the water to cycle it back to the ally took us to a different place and acknowl- envisioned. cleans the tank. Photos and explanations hang
fish tank. edged the viability of what we were doing,” “It took a tremendous amount of time,” says throughout the pilot greenhouse to explain the
That process, heavily dependent on chemis- says Ms. Pilarski. Mr. Tidmarsh. process to visitors and help workers, who bet-
try and environmentally friendly, captured Mr. The team met with area farm-to-table res- After more than a year, in December 2014, ter absorb information visually.
Tidmarsh’s attention. “It requires a bit of taurant owners and a local Whole Foods Mar- they found a farm with 5 acres, a house and The changes in Mr. Tidmarsh are striking to
knowledge of chemistry,” he says. “It is very ket to determine market potential and realized barn, and bought it for $70,000. Ms. Pilarski Ms. Pilarski. “I’ve seen him grow in such a
sustainable. It uses 90% less water than grow- that it was huge: Indiana trucks in 90% of its scouted for other funding sources to cover the lovely way,” she says.
ing in the soil.” food, they discovered. They researched profit cost, landing grants from a utility and the U.S. On a recent afternoon, Mr. Tidmarsh checks
margins and decided to focus on those prod- Agriculture Department. nutrient levels in tanks that hold koi at the pi-
The plan emerges ucts that have the highest ones, like basil, All was progressing until March 2016— lot greenhouse. Afterward, he creates holes
From there, mother and son began working which sells for $16 a pound retail and $10.50 when Ms. Pilarski was diagnosed with cancer. 1/8th-inch deep and drops seeds into trays of
together to figure out how to get the business wholesale. It wasn’t only a personal blow, but also a tre- soil. Later, at the site of Green Bridge’s two
off the ground. Ms. Pilarski left her job in 2012 In 2013, the partners built a prototype for mendous setback for the business. She was the new greenhouses, he describes his plan to
and applied to a program through her alma their business, located on a site in South Bend, one calling contractors, pricing materials and plant perennial rye in an open field on the
mater, Notre Dame, designed to help startup Ind., that housed an agency serving people looking for the best suppliers. property to restore microbes in the soil and
social enterprises. Part of the class involved with disabilities. As they produced their first She did as much as she could for as long as prevent erosion.
creating a plan that could be entered into a crops—along with basil, they grew cilantro, she could, but “it was difficult to keep the mo- He’s optimistic about the future of Green
business-plan competition at Notre Dame’s red Russian kale, lettuce, mint and parsley— mentum going,” she says. Bridge. “It does provide hope not just for me,
Mendoza Business School. they learned the ins and outs of the growing Mr. Tidmarsh struggled with the disruption. but others on the autism spectrum to find and
She and Mr. Tidmarsh laid out their strat- process. He says little but nods in agreement as Ms. Pi- keep jobs,” he says. “I think I can see myself
egy with the help of four graduate students. Mr. Tidmarsh focused on monitoring the de- larski tells her story and concludes, “I’m back doing this for the rest of my life.”
Among other crucial choices, they decided to tails of the fish tanks and the level of nutrients and healthy.”
set up the business as a 501(c)(3) nonprofit, the plants were getting. In the midst of those difficult times, their Ms. Ansberry writes The Wall Street
and have a key component of its mission be The next step in their plan was expansion. support network helped keep the business Journal’s Turning Points column.
training others with autism. Guided by the board they had set up for the moving forward. Board members pitched in Email clare.ansberry@wsj.com.
For personal non-commercial use only. Do not edit or alter. Reproductions not permitted.
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THE WALL STREET JOURNAL. Monday, November 27, 2017 | R3
POSTMATES
force. And software companies are ently, for instance, get health insurance. The software
scrambling to help them do their job. and different write-offs are permit- sifts through available offerings to
They’re taking tech products once ted. Now established makers of tax recommend the plan that gives free-
designed for small companies and re- software—as well as new entrants— lancers the most bang for the buck, For some, on-demand jobs seem more attractive than creating a startup.
working them to serve the needs of are reworking existing products or and then walks them through the
solo operators. In many cases, this
software targets corners of the free-
lance world—like health care and
devising new ones to handle those
specialized regulations.
One of the biggest names getting
process in much the same way that a
human-resources staffer at an em-
ployer might do for an employee.
‘Gig’ Work May Keep Some
taxes—that work very differently
than they do for other small busi-
involved is Intuit. The financial-soft-
ware giant beta-tested QuickBooks
For some solo entrepreneurs, the
software delivers some of the bene-
People From Launching Firms
nesses and that freelancers have long Self-Employed in 2014 and formally fits of working at a traditional busi- Academy of Management, the re-
BY LOUISE LEE
had to figure out on their own. launched it in 2015. The program ness. The company has joined with searchers analyzed the volume and
“The more prevalent this way of provides information and forms that some of the largest names in the gig funding status of Kickstarter cam-
working becomes, the more we’ll see gig workers need to manage their fi- economy, including Uber, Postmates WHEN COMPANIES like Uber move paigns between 2013 and 2015 in
apps or companies emerging to make nances and comply with various tax and TaskRabbit, to aggregate their into an area, some people there are 172 areas where Postmates and
it easier,” says Diane Mulcahy, au- requirements. It is also specifically gig workers to get group discounts less likely to start businesses of UberX launched.
thor of “The Gig Economy” and a designed primarily for smartphones from insurance providers. their own. On average, Postmates’s entry
professor on the topic at Babson Col- to accommodate gig workers, espe- That’s the conclusion of a work- into a market caused an 11% drop in
lege. “If you’re in the gig economy, cially drivers and delivery people, ORGANIZING PROJECTS: Schedul- ing paper for the Ross School of Kickstarter campaigns, primarily
you’re not just doing your primary who are frequently on the go. ing can become a Business at the University of Michi- unfunded and underfunded ones, a
job, you’re also doing back-office In its August earnings, Intuit said big headache for gan, written by Gordon Burtch of year later. UberX’s entry resulted in
work, invoicing, paying quarterly there are now 390,000 subscribers, solo workers, who the University of Minnesota, Seth a 14% decline.
taxes, managing social media, doing quadrupling over the past year. It ex- frequently take on Carnahan of the University of Mich- The researchers add that accord-
marketing, business development, pects that growth to continue. multiple jobs at the igan, and Brad N. Greenwood of ing to census data from that time
figuring out your own health-care same time and Temple University. frame, more people in those areas
and retirement benefits.” HANDLING THE BOOKS: As with don’t have the option to spread them The researchers examined the ef- reported their job as “paid driver
The potential market is huge. De- taxes, freelancers among employees. fect of two “gig” companies— or chauffeur” after the entry of
pending on which report you read, face different chal- Completo, a to-do app originally Uber’s core service, UberX, and the UberX.
people working in the gig economy— lenges handling ac- aimed at corporate executives, helps delivery service Postmates—on There may also be an effect on
alternatively called freelancers, flex counting and billing those juggling different projects startup activity, as measured by crowdfunding platforms, the re-
workers, consultants or independent than startups do. maximize productivity and minimize Kickstarter campaigns. The re- searchers say. Driving down the
workers—will comprise 30% to 50% Wave, an app stress. searchers found that a gig firm’s number of crowdfunding campaigns
of the U.S. labor force by 2020. Al- and traditional software offering, has For instance, the company lets gig entry into a given area caused a de- may declutter platforms and help
though often described as a mono- run marketing campaigns targeted at workers break a large project into cline in the number of unfunded funders quickly locate and evaluate
lith, gig workers are as diverse as the industries where freelancers tend to smaller steps to help them organize and underfunded Kickstarter cam- the most attractive projects.
traditional workforce. work, such as photography and web many assignments at once, and of- paigns launched locally a year later. But the researchers acknowledge
Some take on lower-paid on-de- design. When people sign on to the fers the ability to set progressive re- The falloff may reflect a decline that gig-economy firms could end
mand tasks for companies like Uber, service, which also covers smaller minders (such as reminding them in “necessity-based entrepreneur- up snuffing out a strong idea.
TaskRabbit or Postmates. Others are startups, they see information spe- five days before something is due, ship” by unemployed or underem- “There might be ideas that would
highly paid, specialized consultants cific to their industry when they’re and then the day before). The com- ployed people, says Dr. Greenwood, have been superstars that don’t get
who use niche skills on complex proj- getting set up, and get suggestions pany has also updated its marketing now at the University of Minnesota. pursued” because someone joined
ects for large clients with big bud- about what various forms should in- to specifically target freelancers, If they have no job opportunities, the gig economy instead of launch-
gets. Still others work in creative clude. For example, a photographer with language about juggling multi- “they’re more likely to act on ing a startup, says Dr. Burtch.
fields, doing everything from com- might see usage-rights offerings as a ple “side hustles” and working with what’s potentially a lower-quality San Francisco-based Uber de-
modity jobs such as churning out feature to add to their invoice. a variety of teams on different proj- startup idea” that doesn’t get much clined to comment. Postmates, also
content for a website to higher-paid ects. The company says downloads support on Kickstarter. based in San Francisco, says it “has
contracts like designing a new brand. TREATING HEALTH CARE: With are 10 times higher—from 100 down- But with the arrival of gig firms, a strong impact on local econo-
Here’s a look at some of the new health-care cover- loads a week to more than 1,000 a those individuals can find work mies,” providing income to its cou-
software on offer and what it can do age, small busi- week—since making these changes. more easily instead of feeling as if riers and giving local merchants
for freelancers. nesses have an ad- they have to pursue a weak project more ways to distribute products.
vantage over solo Ms. Westervelt is a writer in that languishes unfunded, he says.
UNTANGLING TAXES: Tax rules for workers: They can Oakland, Calif. Email In the paper, presented at the Ms. Lee is a writer in Palo Alto,
solo workers are quite different than get group insur- reports@wsj.com. 2016 Best Paper Proceedings of the Calif. Email reports@wsj.com.
TOTAL USD
BONDS
IUSB
U.S.
BONDS
WHEN INSPIRATION HITS, AGG
BUILD FOR WHAT’S NEXT.
1. Source: BlackRock and Morningstar, as of 4/30/17. Comparison is between the average Prospectus Net Expense Ratio for the iShares Core Series Bond ETFs (0.08%) and the average
Prospectus Net Expense Ratio of active open-end mutual funds in comparable Morningstar categories (0.84%) available in the U.S.on 4/30/17. Visit www.iShares.com to view a prospectus,
which includes investment objectives, risks, fees, expenses and other information that you should read and consider carefully before investing. Investing
involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Fixed income risks include interest-rate and credit risk. Typically, when interest rates rise, there is a corresponding decline in bond
values. Credit risk refers to the possibility that the bond issuer will not be able to make principal and interest payments. Buying and selling shares of ETFs will result in brokerage commissions.
The iShares funds are distributed by BlackRock Investments, LLC. © 2017 BlackRock, Inc. All rights reserved. iSHARES and BLACKROCK are registered trademarks of BlackRock. 285131
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R4 | Monday, November 27, 2017 THE WALL STREET JOURNAL.
RAQUEL BIANCA
CEO of the International Commercial/residential services 66 1.1 247 1.0 three or four major ham-
Franchise Association, an in- Lodging 28 1.0 619 1.1 burger brands. Why would
dustry trade group. Much of anyone want to pay slightly
that mood appears to be Personal services 110 2.5 487 4.1 more for a hamburger of dif-
coming from the Trump ad- ferent quality or marketing?
ministration’s less regula-
tory, more business-friendly
Quick-service restaurants
Real estate
191
63
1.8
1.7
3,615
250
3.7
2.3
Yet concepts are succeeding
with gourmet burgers. They
IS IT A NECKLACE OR A
approach than that of the
Obama administration. Retail food 53 0.8 465 2.0
have different tastes and
methods of preparation. I’m
TEETHING RING? YES.
But the industry still has a Retail products/services 60 1.5 343 2.8 always amazed by the vi- Lisa Greenwald loved her long, beaded necklaces. And
way to go, Mr. Cresanti says. brancy in this business. many babies loved them, too.
Growth isn’t as powerful as Table/full-service restaurants 31 1.6 1,019 3.5 When she held babies, they would grab and chew on her
it could be. And there’s un- TOTAL 745 1.6% 7,879 3.1% Chowing up costume jewelry. Seeing the effect she had on children,
certainty in the sector over WSJ: Why is food hot now? moms called her a “baby whisperer,” but Ms. Greenwald
joint-employer rules. Source: IHS Markit for the International Franchise Association MR. CRESANTI: It’s easily ac- would say, “No. It’s the necklace.”
For decades, one business Franchise Education and Research Foundation THE WALL STREET JOURNAL. cessible. People are creating In late 2008, when she was home with her first child,
couldn’t be held liable for interlinks with technology in Benjamin, she saw that the boy was getting just as obsessed
employment-related matters thumbs up. Franchising is up WSJ: Under the new adminis- ways they didn’t before, so with her jewelry as the other babies had been. And she de-
at another unless it had di- from last year. We’re having tration, are you feeling more you have app ordering, you cided to find a way to make the improvised chew toy as safe
rect control over the employ- a growth pattern within the confident about what will have delivery of food in vehi- as possible.
ees in question—which al- normal trajectory you would happen with the issue of joint cles that bring it in tempera- Ms. Greenwald, who studied business in college and has
lowed franchise operations expect. But we have huge op- employment? tures unachievable before. spent nearly 20 years in the fashion industry, came up with
to flourish. But in 2015, the portunities to break through MR. CRESANTI: The one thing You have people putting a lot an idea that she thought would resonate with other parents
National Labor Relations our averages. According to that casts the largest shadow of investment and thought as well: nontoxic beads made of silicon.
Board said any franchiser our 2017 forecast conducted is the joint-employer issue. into appealing to the con- “I knew that if there was a way to make a safe necklace
could be held as a joint em- by IHS Markit, there are go- We passed a bill out of the sumer and particularly to for teething that babies would love them and moms and
ployer with local franchisees, ing to be approximately House of Representatives millennials, who are becom- caregivers would love to wear them,” she says.
liable to legal action and pro- 745,000 franchise establish- rolling back the National La- ing a greater economic force. She found an agent in Hong Kong to make the beads and
tests by employees. ments in the U.S. by year- bor Relations Board ruling, One of my CEOs put it cor- launched a company, Chewbeads, in 2009, self-funding the
The move sent shock end, up 1.6% from the year and we’re hopeful the Senate rectly. It doesn’t matter what venture with her husband, Eric.
waves through the industry before. That is decent will take that up and pass franchise business you’re in. Since then, she has sold 140,000 necklaces. The prod-
and led to lobbying and a growth. Franchise employ- the bill. We’ve had conversa- If you’re not a technology ucts—which now have expanded to include teething rings,
grass-roots movement of lo- ment is on the rise. It’s fore- tions with the White House company along with being a stroller toys and rattles—are sold on the company’s website
cal business owners. The cast to outpace growth in that the president is willing hotel company, a lodging and at 1,500 to 2,500 boutiques, as well as Nordstrom and
Trump administration may businesses economywide. to sign that bill. company, a doggy day-care Buy Buy Baby outlets. They can also be found abroad in
roll back some aspects of the Things are good, but they WSJ: What areas in franchis- company, a food company, Canada, Mexico, Spain, China and France.
rule, but the industry is pur- could be a lot better. We’ve ing are hot right now? you’re not going to be in Ms. Greenwald is chief merchandising officer at J. Crew,
suing permanent changes. been through a cycle of eight MR. CRESANTI: The food sec- business long. There’s a lot and works at her own business part time. Her husband left
Here are edited excerpts years of regulatory, legisla- tor is continuing to grow. of innovation coming, and his job at a commodities-trading firm to concentrate on the
from the discussion with Mr. tive and economic chal- Hotels are growing also, but it’s pushing through to mak- business and now runs the day-to-day operations at Chew-
Cresanti. lenges, and this is us begin- they are being challenged ing convenience the last mile beads.
ning to get our heads above significantly by things like in a way that has changed “Competition is keen,” says Ms. Greenwald, who lives in
The state of the field the water. Airbnb. Real-estate-related dramatically over time. New York City. But “it keeps us innovating. We are diversify-
WALL STREET JOURNAL: Is We have lots of headroom businesses and home-ser- ing the product with jewelry for kids, lots of stars and hearts
franchising up or down? if we get a little stimulus. A vices businesses are probably Ms. Garone is a writer in and bright color combos.”
MR. CRESANTI: It’s one thumb little legislative and tax relief a little bit slower than we Alameda, Calif. Email –Barbara Haislip
up, and it should be two would be nice. would have hoped. reports@wsj.com.
ELOQUII
specialty retailers. The industry logic, say ana- seas factories are often not set
Enter small companies. A lysts and some in the industry, up to make it. Clothing facto-
wave of entrepreneurs are bet- has been that plus-size women Eloquii’s designs feature unusual cuts, as well as styles that hug the body in places. ries are typically making
ting that they can grab cus- don’t buy as many clothes on clothes for five to 10 brands at
tomers by offering garments average as other women. Brian body in places (rather than the says revenue is increasing ev- she says, have doubled each a time, and manufacturing
that they say are better de- Beitler, chief marketing officer traditional approach, which ery month. year. larger sizes would require
signed for plus-size figures of Lane Bryant, a subsidiary of has tended toward very baggy, She says the average cus- Not all of the plus-size changes to their cutting tables
and more fashionable than Ascena Retail Group, says it is and lots of high-waisted em- tomer came back six or seven startups are designing clothes. and machines that are costly.
current offerings. Some com- true that the typical plus-size pire cuts). times in 2016, and the return In some cases, they’re acting That makes it harder for small
panies are even selling be- customer spends less on Mariah Chase, CEO of Elo- rate is under 2%, “versus the as middlemen for other com- businesses to compete with
spoke outfits that are tailored clothes than a thinner person. quii, says that the employees 35% average return rate for panies that make plus-size large-volume businesses.
to customers’ specific mea- But, he says, that’s due largely who stuck with the company online fashion retailers.” clothing.
surements. to a lack of choice and the so- after it was cut loose “really Mallorie Dunn, the designer Panty Drop, an underwear More niches
These new entrants don’t cial stigma of being plus size. saw an opportunity for plus- behind another clothing re- subscription service, began Still, some observers say
have the market heft of estab- All of which means that size fashion rather than just tailer, SmartGlamour, which carrying plus-size lingerie there are plenty of niches for
lished specialty retailers like large brands are “leaving a lot taking The Limited stuff and launched in 2015, customizes lines in fall 2016 to comple- the startups. Ms. Eves, the
Lane Bryant. But observers of room for smaller, innovative sizing it up.” each garment it designs and ment its standard sizes. Julie stylist, says, for instance,
say that they’re making in- brands to come in and make Other companies are taking sells depending on a woman’s Arsenault, founder and chief there’s a need for wider foot-
roads and have a lot of room their mark,” Mr. Cohen says. the same approach and de- measurements, emphasizing executive officer of Panty wear, as well as “intimates,
to grow. Probably the biggest new signing plus-size clothes from colorful prints and girlish, Drop, says she extended the high-end designer wear,
“We’re seeing small, inde- entrant is Eloquii, which the ground up. Noushie Mira- flirty cuts. company’s plus-size offerings sportswear…. There’s this per-
pendent brands be much more started out as the plus-size la- bedi and Ronda Raymond, “Every brand designs dif- from 3x up to 6x after inter- ception that plus-size women
successful in this market than bel of The Limited. After the founders of Eight & Sand, an ferently, and then every body acting with various body-posi- aren’t active, and that’s com-
larger brands and retailers,” brand was cut in 2013, a few Oakland, Calif., women’s cloth- is different, especially tive communities on social pletely untrue.”
says Marshal Cohen, a retail- key employees sought out an ing line launched in 2015, fo- women’s bodies,” she says. media. Then there’s the whole
industry analyst with NPD investor to buy it from Lim- cus on wardrobe staples such “You have to be able to tailor “They told us loud and other side of the plus-size
Group. “The small, new, inno- ited, which has since gone out as a tailored henley in a vari- a bit to each individual if you clear that if we really want to business—clothing for men.
vative players are generally of business. The line re- ety of colors. want a truly great fit. You serve this market, we need to Few startups have started to
beating out the big behemoths launched as a stand-alone in Eight & Sand brought in can’t really expect something go higher than 3x,” Ms. Ar- address that potentially re-
that are sort of stuck in the 2014 and has been doubling its models for numerous styles that’s made for the mass mar- senault says. She says monthly warding market.
old way of doing fashion re- sales every year since, reach- and sizes for its first run of ket to fit everyone well.” revenue is in the thousands, “There are way fewer op-
tail.” ing around $80 million for fis- clothing, to ensure that its de- Two-thirds of Ms. Dunn’s and sales are growing 20% tions than there are for plus-
cal 2017. signs work for a variety of customers every month are re- month over month. size women,” Ms. Eves says.
A new take Their approach: draping shapes, including hourglass, turn visitors. With several
Sizing is a contentious is- and unusual cuts or sleeves to pear, apple and boxy. thousand customers, she says Down the road Ms. Westervelt is a writer in
sue in fashion. A large number create flattering silhouettes, They currently have 750 she’s working on about 60 or- For all these startups’ suc- Oakland, Calif. Email
of women are size 14, 16 and as well as styles that hug the customers, and Ms. Mirabedi ders at any given time. Sales, cess so far, there are obstacles reports@wsj.com.
JAMES YANG
Business-School Professors
And Tech Students May
Not Speak the Same Language
the Netherlands. on creating a business while
BY ALINA DIZIK
Business-school professors using few resources and ex-
tend to use teaching methods perimenting along the way.
COLLEGES MAY need to re- that work with business stu-
think the way they teach tech dents on technology students, Peer pressure
students about entrepreneur- he says. “This may not be the Understanding how STEM
ship. correct approach.” students relate to their peers
In a recent study, research- is another key, says Dr. Harms.
ers looked at business stu- A need for guidelines Engineers are less motivated
dents and science, technology, The biggest issue is a lack to pursue entrepreneurial ac-
engineering and math stu- of formal structure, Dr. Harms tivities when they are sur-
dents about to enter entrepre- says. rounded by entrepreneurs, he
neurship courses. Both groups Entrepreneurship profes- says, because they identify
started off with equal entre- sors often don’t explore prob- themselves as STEM special-
preneurial knowledge, and lems and methods in the thor- ists first and entrepreneurs
STEM students even had a ough, analytical way that second (if at all). Keeping
slight edge in terms of how STEM students are used to; in- them surrounded by other
many hours of entrepreneur- stead, he says, the professors STEM students in entrepre-
ship education they were able use more of a linear approach neurship classes can help mo-
to take. and don’t constantly ask the tivate them to strike out on
Yet after taking those en- students to change their as- their own, he says.
trepreneurship courses, STEM sumptions. Another easy fix is to con-
students had only slightly “Science students are used sider introducing different
higher intentions of launching to more structure, they are role models into the tech-fo-
startups than before. Business- not familiar with the unstruc- cused classroom.
school students demonstrated tured way of doing things,” Instead of studying the tra-
a greater increase in intention says Dr. Harms, who con- ditional chief executives, Dr.
after taking courses. ducted the study with three Harms suggests, STEM entre-
other researchers, using data preneurship classes should fo-
No clear connection from 4,548 student responses cus on tech startups led by
Why the lack of change? in a 2011 Global University En- chief executives with a STEM
Entrepreneurship is often trepreneurial Spirit Students’ background.
taught to STEM students by Survey distributed in Austrian “We should present to them
business-school professors universities. the hero engineers turned en-
who don’t know the best way One idea to improve things, trepreneurs,” Dr. Harms says.
to reach those students, says Dr. Harms says, is to teach
Rainer Harms, associate pro- STEM students the lean- Ms. Dizik is a writer in
fessor for entrepreneurship at startup approach—a more-for- Chicago. Email her at
the University of Twente in malized method that focuses reports@wsj.com.
R6 | Monday, November 27, 2017 THE WALL STREET JOURNAL.
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THE WALL STREET JOURNAL. Monday, November 27, 2017 | R7
MATT JENNINGS
me long to realize that there was a For some entrepreneurs, vintage port me back,” she says.
good internet market for this stuff,” sales are a sideline. Jonathan Finder
Mr. Woodbury says. started Oldphones.com 16 years ago A starring role
when he was a young physician, and Other regular clients are the TV
the second income helped him pay Western Electric 302 models date back to the 1930s. and movie industries, which account
off student loans. for 15% of the firm’s revenue.
Now his job as a pediatric lung cords—manufactured in its own To build consumer trust, he offers “It’s just been building on its
specialist keeps him from putting in workshop. Additionally, Oldphone- a one-year, repair-or-replace war- own,” Mr. Woodbury says. Recently,
the time to acquire new customers. works.com has the capability to re- ranty—which gives him an edge over he says, “we got calls from two dif-
And a downturn in landline sales has pair and refurbish models that aren’t garage sales and flea markets, where ferent production companies on the
hurt business. in its inventory, a service that ac- the mantra is “Let the buyer be- same day asking us to rush phones
But he keeps at it, in no small counts for about 10% of the com- ware.” He also says he can offer that they need on the set.”
part because he’s an unabashed fan pany’s revenue. items in bulk, which is difficult for Jess Royal, set decorator for the
of the craftsmanship and history of Mr. Woodbury’s customers are other dealers. Netflix series “Stranger Things,”
his merchandise. “How many elec- both “repeat buyers; people who are calls the company her “go-to
tromechanical objects that are 50 to going through their collection and A trunk line source.”
70 years old do exactly what they want to upgrade, so they’ll come to The company doesn’t do much “It’s super hard to find a whole
did when they were first made?” Dr. us to order the one part they need,” marketing. Mostly it involves making bunch of phones in working condi-
Finder says. “The phones of the ’30s he says, and “a lot of one-offs, where sure customers can find 20th-cen- tion, such as ones that all light up
and ’40s outclass anything on the someone Googles us because they tury technology using 21st-century for a police station scene,” she says.
market today.” need parts.” methods. General manager Matt Jen- “They’ve been great for us.”
Typically, Mr. Woodbury gets his nings, 31, makes updating social me- When a certain style Mr. Wood-
MATT JENNINGS
A new calling inventory from individuals or estates dia a top priority, trying to land the bury has supplied appears on the
For other entrepreneurs, like Mr. looking to liquidate their collections. company at the top of Google rank- screen, his staff will see an immedi-
Woodbury, retro devices are their His average telephone sale is $250, a ings in their category. ate blip in sales.
sole focus. The market for these healthy return on his average invest- When he answered a help-wanted “We won’t sell any red pay
The 1905 Strowger can run $8,000. phones would seem pretty small to ment of $50, not counting the cost ad two years ago, he didn’t know a phones for ages, then, all of a sud-
build a business on. Two groups— of labor for refurbishing. Prices usu- spit-cup receiver from an F1 handset. den, we’ll sell four in a day,” he says.
Some 16 years later, Oldphone- the Antique Telephone Collectors ally range from $100 to as much as “I thought I’d be repairing cell- A big order came in recently from
works.com, based in Kingston, On- Association and Telephone Collec- $8,000 for a rare model, such as the phones. I certainly didn’t think this Ventana Big Sur, a luxury resort on
tario, has grown to become one of tors International—have only 1,125 1905 Strowger Candlestick, the first would be much of a market,” he California’s Central Coast, which
the biggest sellers of antique members total. commercially available dial tele- says. “After my first day, I realized I asked for 59 Western Electric
phones, whether it’s the “candle- Yet buyers have been eager phone. was wrong.” phones dating back to the 1930s. The
stick” style familiar from old films enough not only to keep Mr. Wood- (A Kansas City undertaker, Almon Beth Howe, like many buyers, property—which opened in October
and TV shows or the clunky desk bury’s operation afloat but allow it Strowger, believed that the only lo- found her way to Oldphoneworks by and is the first in North America for
models that were fixtures at to thrive, even enough to support a cal operator was steering business googling. She isn’t a collector, but Asia-based Alila Hotels & Resorts—
grandma’s house. four-person staff. Revenue, he says, calls to his competitor, who also lusted after a Western Electric 500— needed its rooms to have a distinc-
Mr. Woodbury’s base is a small can hit 50,000 Canadian dollars happened to be her husband. So he the phone of her childhood—for her tive touch, says Kristina Jetton, gen-
but loyal group of collectors with a (roughly US$39,000) in a good invented dial service, bypassing op- Topanga, Calif., home. eral manager.
taste for nostalgia, along with a month, and though he doesn’t track erator intervention.) “I have fond memories of avo- “In this day and age,” she says,
handful of people looking to buy old long-term growth, he says that sales “A phone like that may sit there cado-green kitchen appliances,” Ms. “when everyone has a cellphone, this
models in bulk, such as movie pro- have shown a consistent year-to- for five years, but eventually some- Howe says. “Maybe it’s just reaching is something unexpected, retro,
ducers trying to conjure up the past year increase since the beginning. one will buy it,” Mr. Woodbury says. adulthood that has made me nostal- quirky and fun.”
and hotel moguls looking to add a When original equipment is un- “If people really want something, gic for the late ’60s, early ’70s de-
touch of uniqueness to rooms. available, the company uses repro- they’re willing to pay for it. You just sign sensibility.” Ms. Rubin is a writer in Chicago.
“It’s kind of amazing that we’ve duction parts—such as cloth-covered have to be patient.” An online search brought her to Email reports@wsj.com.
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R8 | Monday, November 27, 2017 THE WALL STREET JOURNAL.
TIM BOWER
working with all of these types of
you’re desperate to data—plus financial information—so
that you can make data-driven deci-
answer with numbers. sions about the best strategies and
tactics. The key is to start with a subject Working with web data became part on the team who had significant
All of that is hard to do, however, you’re genuinely passionate or curi- of my daily working life, and I was quantitative research skills. I took on
“relation” actually was. When I if the mere sight of a row of figures ous about, so that you develop some too fascinated by what that data re- projects that required me to have
switched to a new school in the mid- gives you flashbacks to junior high. quantitative understanding in a con- vealed to let my math anxiety get in regular calls with the company’s
dle of that year, I convinced my That’s where I started from, and it text that feels stimulating rather the way. chief research officer, so that I’d
mother to let me drop math. took plenty of hard work—and some than defeating. have the chance to ask an endless
More than 30 years later, I find luck—to turn my math phobia Recruit a mentor—humbly. Build- series of methodological questions. I
myself in a career that involves reg- around. If numbers still give you the Find a question you’re desperate ing your quantitative skills on the also befriended a colleague who (she
ular and persistent engagement with shivers, here’s how you can work to answer with numbers. There’s job means taking on projects that confessed) enjoyed a good data
the world of numbers: writing data- your way toward a more confident no better motivation for conquering push you past your comfort zone. nerd-out.
driven articles and reports is now relationship with the quantitative your math phobia than a question Since you don’t want to make a rec-
the lion’s share of my work. That has world. that you are really motivated about ommendation, much less a decision, Get indignant about your math
required me to finally conquer my answering. based on mistaken calculations or education. We can’t talk about the
math phobia by using a few different Learn quantitative thinking with a Maybe you want to know which of methodology, you’re going to need impact of math phobia in business
strategies that can work for others, passion project. You’re not going to your service lines generates the someone looking over your shoulder without acknowledging that girl stu-
too. become a fluent and confident data most recurring revenue, or what and double-checking your work. dents are subject to this more than
While it wasn’t easy, I recognized analyst until you have a basic level kinds of social-media posts get Think of this person as a “math boys—which has an effect later in
that in this era of abundant data, of comfort with quantitative work. shared the most within different mentor,” and make sure that it’s life. A survey conducted for Change
math phobia is a recipe for missing So look for an area that interests market segments. All of those ques- someone you can approach humbly the Equation, a coalition that sup-
out on the professional insights and you. I took an economics course as a tions are answerable with data, and (i.e. honestly) so that you aren’t ports STEM (science, technology, en-
opportunities that make the differ- way of satisfying my college’s quan- they can drive your recovery from tempted to overstate your level of gineering and mathematics) literacy,
ence between a business that titative requirements, and discov- math phobia. confidence. found that women are significantly
scrapes by, and a business that is ered that when I was working with What ultimately broke through The best place to find that mentor more likely than men to say that
wildly successful. numbers in a meaningful context— my wall of math resistance was the is in a very quantitative business or they’re not good at math. For
Smart businesses of all sizes now and not just in abstract math prob- desire to build traffic to my blog— department—even if the prospect of women who’ve yet to get comfort-
use data to drive decision-making on lems—I actually loved it. which got me curious about which exposing your needs inside the com- able with quantitative work, there’s
everything from product develop- By the time I got to grad school, I pages and blog posts got the most pany is terrifying. nothing like pure indignation to fuel
ment to marketing. The proliferation had also fallen in love with comput- views, or kept people on our site the I was lucky to find two of mine a turnaround.
of low-cost (and even free) data sets, ing; while I’d struggled with the longest. When I started advising or- while working at a business-intelli-
as well as tools and expertise to ana- rigid order of operations in algebra, ganizations on how to build online gence software company: Since the Ms. Samuel is a technology
lyze that data, means that small and I embraced it enthusiastically when communities, I had to do the same company’s product was designed to researcher and the author of
medium-size businesses are increas- it took the form of programming or thing for their websites, learning to help businesses work with survey “Work Smarter with Social
ingly data-driven. You can count on scripting. mine web analytics for insight. data, there were a bunch of people Media.” Email reports@wsj.com.
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