Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 44 (2015) 12–19

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Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/rser

The impact of ICT industry on CO2 emissions: A regional analysis

in China
Chuanguo Zhang n, Cong Liu
School of Economics, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361005, PR China

art ic l e i nf o a b s t r a c t

Article history: The existing literatures mainly focus on the relationships between ICT and CO2 emissions in developed
Received 29 July 2014 countries from the perspective of technology, but little attention has been paid to China. Concerning
Received in revised form regional differences in China, this paper investigates the impact of ICT industry on CO2 emissions at the
28 November 2014
national and regional levels using the STIRPAT model and provincial panel data during the period 2000–
Accepted 12 December 2014
Available online 31 December 2014
2010. The results show that ICT industry contributes to reducing China’s CO2 emissions and the impact of
ICT industry on CO2 emissions in the central region is greater than that in the eastern region, while that
Keywords: in the western region is insignificant. The findings not only contribute to advancing the existing
ICT industry literature, but also deserve special attention from policymakers.
CO2 emissions
& 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Regional differences

Contents

1. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
2. Literature review . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
3. Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
4. Data source and description . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
4.1. Data source . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
4.2. Data description. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
4.3. The empirical result of relationship between ICT industry and CO2 emissions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
5. Discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
6. Conclusions and policy implications. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
Acknowledgments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
Appendix . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18

1. Introduction energy-intensive in China. Consequently, CO2 emissions also show

high-speed growth with the rapid economic growth. Since 2007,
Since economic reform, China’s economy has experienced China has overtaken the United States to become the world’s
consistently high growth at an average annual growth rate of largest emitter of CO2 emissions [3]. According to the Annual
approximately 9.9% over the past thirty years. However, China’s Report on China’s Low-carbon Economic Development (2012),
rapid economic growth is established on the over-exploitation of China’s share of global carbon emissions climbed to 24% in 2011.
resources to a large extent [1]. The economy mainly depends on As the largest developing country and a major economy in the
coal as an energy source, accounting for about 70% of total primary world, China undoubtedly has a great responsibility and pressure
energy in China [2]. Moreover, the industrial sector is dominantly to control CO2 emissions with economic growth. At the 2009
United Nations Climate Change conference held in Copenhagen,
China pledged to the world that by 2020 CO2 emissions per unit
n
Corresponding author. Tel.: þ 86 592 13720898826; fax: þ 86 592 2186366.
of GDP will be reduced by 40–45% compared to the 2005 level.
E-mail address: cgzhang@xmu.edu.cn (C. Zhang). To reduce CO2 emissions, China is actively seeking to realize a

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2014.12.011
1364-0321/& 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
 C. Zhang, C. Liu / Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 44 (2015) 12–19
transformation in economic structure as economic transformation
is important in decoupling the carbon emissions increase from
economic growth. In restructuring the economy, the growth of ICT
industry plays a very important role [1]. In 2008, the European
Commission stated that “Information and Communication Tech-
nologies (ICTs) have an important role to play in reducing the
energy intensity and increasing the energy efficiency of the
economy” [4]. In China’s 12th Five-Year Plan for National Economic
and Social Development (FYP), ICT industry has been selected as
one of China’s strategic emerging industries. According to Zadek
et al. [5], ICT industry referred to electronic manufacturing and
related software and service also should be part of ICT industry.
ICT industry consists of ICT manufacturing, software and services,
offering electronic computer equipment and related software to
convert, store, process, communicate and retrieve digitized infor-
mation. In China, ICT industry has played a critical role in
economic transformation [1]. China has realized the importance
of ICT industry in the low-carbon economy and is striving to
develop ICT industry. In China, ICT investment contributed 2.5% to
economic growth in the period of 1985–1995 and 7.5% during the
period of 1995–2003 [5]. In 2010, China’s ICT industry generated
an added value of 2.6 trillion RMB accounting for 10% of GDP
according to Zadek et al. [6]. In 2012, China topped the world in
terms of the user scale of ICT products [1].
The existing literatures mainly focus on the relationship
between ICT and CO2 emissions from the perspective of technol-
ogy. However, since the pioneering work conducted by Romm [7],
the relationship is still under debate. In addition, the existing
studies paid much attention to developed countries, while more
attention should be paid to developing countries, especially China.
As the largest developing country, China has a vast population and
territory with unbalanced economic growth. Although some
research is aware of the significant role of ICT industry in China’s
low carbon economy [1,8] and CO2 emission reduction potential of
different ICT applications are estimated [8–10], most existing
research is carried out without consideration of China’s regional
differences.
Therefore, it is necessary to study the impact of ICT industry on
CO2 emissions considering China’s regional disparities. This paper
adopted the STIRPAT model to investigate the impact of ICT
industry on CO2 emissions considering China’s regional differ-
ences, with a panel data covering 29 provinces over the period
2000–2010. Our research is different from most literature from a
perspective of ICT technology.
2. Literature review
The existing literatures mainly focus on the relationship
between ICT and CO2 emissions from the perspective of technol-
ogy. However, the relationship is still under debate. Romm [7] first
analyzed the reductions in energy intensity from 1996 to 1999 in
the U.S. and attributed the reductions to growth in the Internet
Economy because Internet Economy can help lower energy inten-
sity. A possible relationship between ICT and sustainability was
revealed.
The subsequent studies show three divergent attitudes on the
relationship between ICT and CO2 emissions. The first viewpoint
considers that the ICT sector has caused lots of CO2 emissions
and unprecedented growth of the ICT sector will increase energy
consumption and endanger goals of reducing CO2 emissions. For
example, according to Fettweis and Zimmermann [11], ICT systems
cause 2% of global CO2 emissions, equal to the total CO2 emissions
caused by international air traffic. Meanwhile, Pickavet et al. [12]
analyzed energy consumption for ICT equipment and predicted
that the overall power consumption of ICT equipment will grow
13
from 168 GW in 2008 to about 430 GW in 2020. The second
viewpoint is more optimistic. It believes that the potential emis-
sion reduction of ICT is much larger than the direct footprint of the
ICT sector. Indirect impacts of ICT are greater than the direct
impacts of the ICT sector itself. Measuring the impacts of ICT on
the environment should not take account of the direct impacts of
the ICT sector itself simply. For example, Coroama and Hilty [13]
suggested that ICT energy consumption and ICT-induced energy
efficiency should be integrated to assess net energy impacts of ICT.
Houghton [14] further pointed out that the impacts of ICT on the
environment can be direct, indirect or third-order and rebound,
and the indirect impacts of ICT are greater than the direct impacts
of ICT. The third viewpoint thinks that the relation of ICT to the
environment seems uncertain because of the rebound effects.
Plepys [15] emphasizes that, although ICT has a potential to
decouple economic growth from energy consumption, potential
rebound effects of increased ICT consumption are risky and
uncertain. Pamlin [16,17] also concluded that the different
rebound effects must be analyzed in order to direct ICT develop-
ment in a sustainable direction, especially for the systemic
rebound effects. Similarly, Pamlin and Pahlman [18] advocated
that the carbon emission impact of ICT products and service
should be analyzed concerning direct, indirect and systemic
effects.
The quantitative estimates on the contribution of ICT to CO2
emissions reductions mainly involve LCA (Life Cycle Assessments),
the GHG Protocol for Project Accounting and the GHG Protocol for
Corporate Accounting. LCA considers all phases of ICT product in
the life cycle in order to have a complete view of the environ-
mental impact of ICT product [19]. It is a tool for estimating the
total impact of ICT product or service in the complete process of
production, delivery, transport, consuming and disposal, etc. [20].
The tool is appropriated for analyzing the direct effect of ICT
product on CO2 emissions. For example, Malmodin [21] conducted
a life cycle assessment of the telecommunications sector. The idea
of LCA is also accepted by The GHG Protocol for Project Accounting
and the GHG protocol for Corporate Accounting. On the one hand,
the two GHG Protocols need to identify varieties of ICT applica-
tions offered by ICT technology with beneficial impacts on CO2
emissions. For example, smart building, one of ICT applications,
describes a suite of ICT technologies used to make the design,
construction and operation of buildings more efficient [8]. On the
other hand, the total CO2 emissions reduction is an aggregation of
the potential carbon emissions benefit by every ICT application.
CO2 emissions reductions by every ICT application are assessed
based on comparison between the energy-optimistic scenario and
the chosen baseline or BAU (Business As Usual) scenarios. For
example, Webb et al. [8] identified the four biggest ICT applica-
tions and suggested that global CO2 emissions reductions can be
7.8 Gt CO2 in 2020, five times ICT’s direct footprint. These quanti-
fication approaches are appropriate for analyzing the potential of
individual ICT applications from a perspective of ICT technology.
However, the methods may be not suitable for analyzing the
potential of CO2 emission reductions by ICT industry.
Currently, the existing studies mainly focus on developed
countries (especially Europe and North America). As the first
worldwide emitters of GHGs, China has already taken up a
compelling share of world’s GHG emissions. According to EIA’s
world energy outlook, almost 50% of increases in world primary
energy demand will come from China and India alone between
2005 and 2030. Therefore, more attention should be paid to China.
Webb et al. [8] emphasized that the ICT industry plays a significant
role in reducing CO2 emissions, especially in rapidly developing
countries such as China. Zhang and Liang [1] further stated that
China should convert ICT to green ICT to achieve sustainable
development and develop an analytical framework based on
14 C. Zhang, C. Liu / Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 44 (2015) 12–19
innovation system approaches. Besides, Webb et al. [8] noted that
smart motor systems will reduce China’s emissions by 200 million
Mt CO2 by 2020, with ICT improving industrial efficiency by 10%.
However, without optimization, China motor systems alone will
produce 10% of China’s emissions in 2020. Tianjian et al. [9]
estimated the CO2 emission reduction potential of China info-
communications industry by identifying current CO2 mitigation
and potential of four main types of ICT applications. It is based on a
detailed examination of the CO2 savings associated with 14
dematerialization services offered by China mobile in Chongqing.
They conclude that the potential to reduce emissions will be 615
million tons in 2020 and 1298 million tons in 2030. Woetzel et al.
[10] found that 50 Mt could be saved by 2030 by adopting
automated controls in the chemical industry and 100 Mt could
be saved by 2030 by lighting automation systems. But smart grid
related savings is not included in the study as the smart grid is too
uncertain and too costly to be included in the emission savings
calculation to 2030. However, as Zadek et al. [6] emphasized,
estimations differ widely because different studies highlight
different opportunities of ICT.
In conclusion, much attention has been paid to the developed
countries from the perspective of technology, but research on the
topic is still insufficient in the developing countries, especially in
China. This paper estimated the effect of ICT industry on CO2
emissions at the national and regional levels using the STIRPAT
model. This is different from most literature from a perspective of
ICT technology.
3. Methodology
The IPAT model (I ¼PAT) was proposed by Ehrlich et al. [22] and
widely applied in analyzing the human impact on the environ-
ment. In the model, the environment impacts (I) are the multi-
plicative product of three key determinants: population (P),
affluence (A) and technology (T). However, as accounting equa-
tions, the vital limitation of IPAT is that they do not permit
hypothesis testing since the known values of some terms deter-
mine the value of the missing term [23–25]. Furthermore, they
assume proportionality between driving forces and environmental
impacts a priori [23,25]. To overcome the limitations, Dietz and
Rosa [26,27] reformulated the IPAT model and proposed the
STIRPAT model known as Stochastic Impacts by Regression on
Population, Affluence, and Technology. The specification of the
STIRPAT model is:
I i ¼ aP bi Aci T di ei
The model keeps the multiplicative formation of IPAT model,
treating population (P), affluence (A), and technology (T) as the
three key determinants of environmental impacts (I). In the
stochastic model, the coefficients a and b, c, d are the elasticities
of environment impacts to population (P), affluence (A) and
technology (T), respectively. The model is not an accounting
equation but a stochastic model that can be used to empirically
test hypotheses. That is the key difference from the IPAT identity
assuming proportionality between driving forces and environ-
mental impacts. The variable е is the disturbance term and the
subscript i represents the unit of analysis. After taking logarithms,
the model can be transformed into the following form:
ln I it ¼ a þ b ln P it þ c ln Ait þ d ln T it þ eit
where P denotes population size and A is per capita GDP. In the
STIRPAT model, the technology variable T represents the factors
that influence environmental impacts (I) except population (P) and
affluence (A) [25]. Since T is not a single factor but comprises many
separate factors that influence environmental impacts, it can be
disaggregated by including additional factors in the STIRPAT model
[25]. We disaggregated T into industrial structure (IS), energy
intensity (EI), urbanization (URB) and the level of ICT industry
(ICT). Industrial structure (IS) is defined as the ratio of the tertiary
industry value to the secondary industry output value. The energy
intensity (EI) is measured by per GDP energy consumption
[23,29,30]. It is believed that the less the energy intensity is, the
higher the efficiency of economy activities is and the less the CO2
emissions are [23]. Urbanization (URB) can reflect activity density
or development process [23,25,28,29]. The level of ICT industry
(ICT) is measured by gross output of Electronic and Information
Manufacturing Industry. The model is specified as follows:
lnCO2it ¼ a0 þ a1 ln P it þa2 ln Ait þa3 lnISit þa4 lnICTit
þ a5 lnURBit þa6 lnEIit ð3Þ
To investigate whether the impact of ICT industry on CO2
emissions differs across different regions in China, we consider
the whole model without regional differences and three regional
models. Taking China’s economic development level and the
geographic position into account, the whole sample is divided
into three regions: the eastern region (including the provinces:
Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, Shandong, Hebei, Guangdong, Hainan,
Liaoning, Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai), the central region (including
the provinces: Shanxi, Anhui, Jiangxi, Henan, Hubei, Hunan, Jilin,
Heilong jiang) and the western region (including the provinces:
Guangxi, Sichuan including Chongqing, Guizhou, Yunnan, Shaanxi,
Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia).
We estimated the impact of ICT industry on CO2 emissions in
the whole sample and three regions with four different regression
approaches, finally getting 16 models. The results are shown in
Tables 3–6. First, we adopt robust Hausman tests on every panel-
data model. The fixed effect model is more reasonable as the result
of rejecting the null hypothesis in every panel. Further, we
successively test the existence of the GroupWise heteroskedasti-
city, the autocorrelation and cross-sectional dependence. The
modified Wald test for GroupWise heteroskedasticity developed
by Greene [31] shows the presence of heteroskedasticity in all
models. By the Wooldridge test for autocorrelation in panel-data
models [32], we can find the autocorrelation in all models. We
used the CD test developed by Pesaran [33] to test cross-sectional
dependence and the results show that there exists cross-sectional
dependence except in the central model.
To control the GroupWise heteroskedasticity, the autocorrela-
tion and cross-sectional dependence, we applied the PCSE estima-
tion. However, in a finite sample, the properties of the PCSE
estimation are rather poor when the cross-sectional dimension N
ð1Þ
is larger than the time dimension T. Then, the Driscoll–Kraay
estimation was employed. Although the standard error estimates
are robust to general forms of cross-sectional and temporal
dependence [34], DK statistics is based on large T asymptotic,
not for panel datasets with a large number of groups but a small
number of observations over time. Therefore, the FGLS estimation
by Parks [35] was adopted to get effective estimation. Further, we
tested for multi-collinearity among data using variance inflation
factor (VIF). As shown in Table A1, the VIF values are all less than
10, indicating that no multi-collinearity within explanatory vari-
ables. This study used STATA 11 analytical software to perform all
analyses.
ð2Þ
4. Data source and description
4.1. Data source
This paper includes a panel dataset of 29 provinces in China
from 2000 to 2010. The data of the provincial population is
 C. Zhang, C. Liu / Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 44 (2015) 12–19 15

Table 1
Definition of the variable used in the paper over the period 2000–2010.
Sources: China Statistical Yearbook, China Compendium of Statistics, the CEIC China Premium Database and China Energy Statistical Yearbook during 2000–2010.

Variable Definition Unit of measurement

Population (P) Population at the end of year Ten thousand

ICT industry (ICT) Gross output of Electronic and Information Manufacturing Industry Millions RMB
Urbanization (URB) The percentage of the urban population in the total population Percent
GDP per capital (A) GDP divided by population at the end of the year Yuan per capita (2000 prices)
Industrial structure (IS) The ratio of the tertiary industry value to the secondary industry output value
Total CO2 emissions (TC) Emission from fuel consumption Ten thousand tons of CO2
Energy Intensity (EI) Total energy consumption divided by GDP Tce per ten thousand Yuan

Notes: The data of Tibet, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan are excluded. The data for Chongqing was included in Sichuan. The urbanization rate in Shanghai and Guangdong are
from its area yearbook.

Table 2
Relative percent changes of all variables for every two years during 2000–2010 (2000¼ 0).
Sources: China Statistical Yearbook, China Compendium of Statistics, the CEIC China Premium Database and China Energy Statistical Yearbook during 2000–2010.

Region Year CO2 P A IS ICT EI URB

East region 2002 12.09  1.84 24.21 3.42 131.26  5.85 8.46
2004 48.15 0.24 55.11  6.54 328.19  6.49 20.19
2006 95.46 4.16 92.51  7.67 559.93  9.82 28.94
2008 120.08 6.40 140.24  6.12 764.07  18.39 32.36
2010 155.03 11.39 181.97 6.54 979.51  28.15 44.47

Central region 2002 15.34 2.48 17.83 0.13 48.90  0.04 5.00
2004 46.08 3.54 45.87 186.72 74.20 0.90 10.86
2006 83.51 0.56 89.25  18.76 193.40  3.78 19.83
2008 103.79 1.11 142.79  25.25 378.38  13.53 26.87
2010 130.80 1.71 206.91  27.84 783.67  23.99 32.70

West region 2002 14.42 3.27 18.15 5.41 28.02  0.10 4.31
2004 63.64 4.49 47.23  6.52 36.86 9.30  3.52
2006 128.31 1.72 90.00  17.01 87.67 10.12 4.10
2008 155.77 2.74 143.33  24.45 227.80 0.30 9.67
2010 208.56 1.42 211.90  22.01 435.28  10.11 18.86

Table 3
Estimation results: CO2 emissions model for whole sample during 2000–2010.
Sources: China Statistical Yearbook, China Compendium of Statistics, the CEIC China Premium Database and China Energy Statistical Yearbook during 2000–2010.

Variables FE(1) PCSE(2) DK(3) FGLS(4)

lnP 0.11(  0.236) 0.885nnn(  0.0425) 0.885nnn(  0.0653) 0.893nnn(  0.0203)

lnA 0.780nnn(  0.0448) 0.537nnn(  0.0956) 0.537nnn(  0.113) 0.634nnn(  0.034)
lnIS  0.0714 (  0.0434)  0.407nnn(  0.0689)  0.407nn(  0.153)  0.0891nnn (  0.0232)
lnICT 0.0259(  0.0187) 0.0145(  0.0194) 0.0145(  0.0225)  0.0238nnn (  0.00841)
lnEI 0.0144(  0.0259) 0.537nnn(  0.112) 0.537n(  0.274) 0.185nnn (  0.0235)
lnURB 0.287nnn(  0.0736) 0.339nnn(  0.053) 0.339nnn(  0.0578) 0.0394 (  0.0466)
Constant 0.293(  1.835)  4.190nnn(  1.014)  4.190nn(  1.55)  3.451nnn (  0.395)
R2 0.845 0.838 0.838 —
Autocorrelation test F(1,28) ¼ 38.948nnn
Cross-sectional dependence test CD ¼11.524nnn
Heteroskedasticity test χ2(29)¼ 893.76nnn
Observations 2233 2233 2233 2233

nnn
Rejection of the null hypothesis at the 0.1% significance level.
nn
Rejection of the null hypothesis at the 5% significance level.
n
Rejection of the null hypothesis at the 10% significance level.

extracted from China Statistical Yearbook. The data of the urban
population and the share of industry sector value added and
service sector value added in GDP are from China Compendium
of Statistics. GDP per capital is calculated at the constant price
(2000 ¼100). Further, we get the data of gross output of Electronic
and Information Manufacturing Industry from the CEIC China
Premium Database and the data on energy use from China Energy
Statistical Yearbook. The data of CO2 emissions is calculated by the
formula of CO2 emissions in the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) (2006) (http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp).
Table 1 lists the definition of all variables.
4.2. Data description
Table 2 describes relative percent changes of all variables for
every two years, taking the year of 2000 as the base period
(2000 ¼ 0). ICT industry has been growing at an amazing speed
during 2000–2010. In 2010, ICT industry of the eastern, central
and western region has risen by 979.51%, 783.67% and 435.28%
compared to the 2000 level, respectively. Although the scale of ICT
industry in the eastern region is the biggest of the three regions,
the growth rates of ICT industry in the central region and the
western region become larger than that in the eastern region after
16 C. Zhang, C. Liu / Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 44 (2015) 12–19

Table 4
Estimation results: CO2 emissions model for the eastern region panel during 2000–2010.
Sources: China Statistical Yearbook, China Compendium of Statistics, the CEIC China Premium Database and China Energy Statistical Yearbook during 2000–2010.

Variables FE(5) PCSE(6) DK(7) FGLS(8)

lnP  0.576 1.041nnn 1.041nnn 0.951nnn

(  0.354) (  0.0693) (  0.104) (  0.0127)
lnA 0.544nnn 0.697nnn 0.697nnn 0.787nnn
(  0.101) (  0.154) (  0.191) (  0.0158)
lnIS  0.524nnn  0.649nnn  0.649nnn  0.515nnn
(  0.17) (  0.0661) (  0.102) (  0.0189)
lnICT 0.152nnn  0.0665n  0.0665  0.0286nnn
(  0.0509) (  0.0386) (  0.0651) (  0.00505)
lnEI 0.0901n 0.429nnn 0.429 0.0698nnn
(  0.0501) (  0.113) (  0.294) (  0.00622)
lnURB 0.357nn 0.648nnn 0.648nnn 0.217nnn
(  0.141) (  0.0718) (  0.133) (  0.0118)
Constant 6.122nn  7.281nnn  7.281nnn  6.133nnn
(  2.606) (  1.606) (  1.754) (  0.204)
R2 0.841 0.926 0.926 —
Autocorrelation test F(1,10)¼ 48.094nnn
Cross-sectional dependence test CD¼ 2.170nn
Heteroskedasticity test χ2(11) ¼1296.08nnn
Observations 847 847 847 847

nnn
Rejection of the null hypothesis at the 0.1% significance level.
nn
Rejection of the null hypothesis at the 5% significance level.
n
Rejection of the null hypothesis at the 10% significance level.

Table 5
Estimation results: CO2 emissions model for the central region panel during 2000–2010.
Sources: China Statistical Yearbook, China Compendium of Statistics, the CEIC China Premium Database and China Energy Statistical Yearbook during 2000–2010.

Variables FE(9) PCSE(10) DK(11) FGLS(12)

nnn nnn
lnP 0.0345 0.848 0.848 0.601nnn
(  0.35) (  0.0941) (  0.161) (  0.0465)
lnA 0.600nnn 0.628nnn 0.628nnn 0.665nnn
(  0.0381) (  0.166) (  0.137) (  0.0416)
lnIS 0.021  0.127  0.127  0.0122n
(  0.02) (  0.0908) (  0.154) (  0.00679)
lnICT  0.0938nnn  0.157nnn  0.157nn  0.129nnn
(  0.0181) (  0.0391) (  0.0522) (  0.0103)
lnEI  0.0006 0.561nnn 0.561nn 0.137nnn
(  0.0179) (  0.128) (  0.248) (  0.0345)
lnURB 1.212nnn 0.156 0.156 0.336nnn
(  0.13) (  0.222) (  0.263) (  0.0769)
Constant 0.643  2.443nn  2.443  1.379nn
(  3.025) (  1.242) (  2.245) (  0.516)
R2 0.964 0.612 0.612 —
Autocorrelation test F(1,7) ¼47.791nnn
Cross-sectional dependence test CD ¼0.677
Heteroskedasticity test χ2(8)¼ 20.14nn
Observations 616 616 616 616

nnn
Rejection of the null hypothesis at the 0.1% significance level.
nn
Rejection of the null hypothesis at the 5% significance level.
n
Rejection of the null hypothesis at the 10% significance level.

2004. CO2 emissions of the three regions also achieved long-term
growth in the period of 2000–2010. The change of CO2 emissions
in the western region is the biggest, followed by the eastern region
and central region. Energy intensity has a continuous downward
trend during the period except there is a large fluctuation in the
western region. During the period of 2000–2010, the industrial
structure experienced fluctuation, but the level of urbanization
kept a sustainable growth in the three regions.
4.3. The empirical result of relationship between ICT industry and
CO2 emissions
The empirical results of panel estimation in the national level
of China are shown in Table 3. It can be seen that estimated
coefficients of the variables are statistically significant at the level
of 0.1% except URB is non-significant in model 4. The elasticity of
ICT industry on CO2 emissions is  0.238, showing that when other
variables hold constant, CO2 emissions in China will decrease
0.238% as long as ICT industry increases 1%. The industrial
structure also has a negative influence on CO2 emissions with
the elasticity of  0.0891. The elasticities of population, GDP per
capital, and energy intensity on CO2 emissions are 0.893, 0.634
and 0.185, respectively. The results reveal that ICT industry can
contribute to cutting CO2 emissions at the national level.
Tables 4–6 report the estimated results about the effect of ICT
industry on CO2 emissions in the eastern, central and western
regions. In the eastern and central regions, ICT industry is
significantly negatively correlated with CO2 emissions at the 0.1%
level while the coefficient of ICT industry in the western area is
statistically insignificant. In the eastern and central regions, a 1%
increase in ICT industry will decrease CO2 emissions by 0.0286%
and 0.129%, respectively.
 C. Zhang, C. Liu / Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 44 (2015) 12–19 17

Table 6
Estimation results: CO2 emissions model for the western region panel during 2000–2010.
Sources: China Statistical Yearbook, China Compendium of Statistics, the CEIC China Premium Database and China Energy Statistical Yearbook during 2000–2010.

Variables FE(13) PCSE(14) DK(15) FGLS(16)

lnP 2.363nnn 0.616nnn 0.616nnn 0.684nnn

(  0.419) (  0.0701) (  0.163) (  0.027)
lnA 0.956nnn 0.672nnn 0.672nnn 0.892nnn
(  0.0588) (  0.116) (  0.12) (  0.0369)
lnIS  0.192n  0.101  0.101  0.141nnn
(  0.114) (  0.274) (  0.316) (  0.0509)
lnICT  0.0271 0.0980nnn 0.0980nn  0.00216
(  0.0195) (  0.0257) (  0.0353) (  0.00545)
lnEI  0.00327 0.428nnn 0.428 0.0194
(  0.0354) (  0.119) (  0.26) (  0.0147)
lnURB  0.00724 0.0197 0.0197  0.122nnn
(  0.0825) (  0.138) (  0.161) (  0.0348)
Constant  17.47nnn  2.656nnn  2.656  3.521nnn
(  3.257) (  1.019) (  1.623) (  0.362)
R2 0.926 0.808 0.808 —
Autocorrelation test F(1,9)¼ 13.732nn
Cross-sectional dependence test CD¼ 3.702nnn
Heteroskedasticity test χ2(10) ¼212.59nnn
Observations 770 770 770 770

nnn
Rejection of the null hypothesis at the 0.1% significance level.
nn
Rejection of the null hypothesis at the 5% significance level.
n
Rejection of the null hypothesis at the 10% significance level.

Meanwhile, the effects of other variables on CO2 emissions
differ across regions. CO2 emissions will increase 0.951%, 0.601%
and 0.684% in the eastern, central and western regions respec-
tively when population increases 1%. Demographic effect is the
largest in the eastern region followed by the western and central
regions. The impact of GDP per capital on CO2 emissions in the
western region is 0.892, greater than that in the eastern region
(0.787) and that in central region (0.665). Besides, in eastern
China, the influence of the industrial structure on CO2 emissions
(  0.515) is significantly greater than that in the central region
(  0.0122) and that in the western region (  0.141). The elastic
coefficients of energy intensity on CO2 emissions are only sig-
nificantly positive in the eastern and central regions with 0.0698
in the eastern region and 0.137 in the central region while that of
the western region is insignificant. Meanwhile, the elasticities of
urbanization on CO2 emissions are significantly positive in the
eastern and central regions while that in the western region is
significantly negative.
5. Discussion
We found two meaningful phenomena from our empirical
results.
The first one is that ICT industry has a negative impact on CO2
emissions in China. This finding is supported by Tianjian et al. and
Webb et al. [8,9]. ICT industry can reduce CO2 emissions in China.
First, ICT industry provides technology of enhancing energy
efficiency. In view of Green by ICT, ICT can optimize the design,
the production, the use and the end-of-life treatment of other
productions [36]. The optimization of each link of product systems
means the improvements of energy efficiency in different sectors
of the economy, thus contributing to saving energy and reducing
carbon emissions. Second, ICT industry provides a low-carbon
lifestyle. ICT products have influenced and transformed the ways
human behave and the way the society operates. People are apt to
utilize a variety of ICT products in that ICT products make work
and lifestyle more convenient and efficient. The wide use of ICT
products can realize a low-carbon lifestyle at the same time. ICT
products such as e-paper and e-books have made things change
from material to immaterial resources namely through
dematerialization, so as to decouple the resource consumption
from the economic output [36]. For example, e-mail has replaced
letters in a physical form, written on paper, collected, sorted, and
delivered worldwide, with almost instantaneous communication
that consumes less energy and potentially fewer resources [37].
Third, ICT industry provides a way of low-carbon economic
transition. ICT not only promotes the upgrade of the traditional
industry, but also provides a powerful support for the producer
service industry. On the one hand, ICT helps traditional industries
move into a higher efficiency and low-carbon economy [8]. ICT
applications such as energy conservation and management sys-
tems, GHG emissions management can control energy use and CO2
emissions. On the other hand, ICT supports the development of
producer service industry and helps producer service industry
become more virtualized and networked. ICT therefore helps to
accelerate the economic transition and build a low-carbon
economy.
The second phenomenon is that the impact of ICT industry on
CO2 emissions is different in the three regions. The effect of ICT
industry on CO2 emissions in the central region is greater than that
in the eastern region, while that in the western region is insignif-
icant. For the central region and the eastern region, the potential
of ICT industry in reducing CO2 emission in the central region is
greater than that in the eastern region. The potential of CO2
emission reduction by ICT industry is closely related to the
distribution of energy-intensive industries. The central region is
the major coal production area characterized by the energy-
consumptive heavy industry base. The value of heavy industrial
output accounts for 70.97% of the total industrial output [38].
Comparatively, the rebound effect in the eastern region is larger
than that in the central region. The potential of CO2 emission
reduction by ICT industry is influenced by the rebound effect. As
Houghton [14] postulates, efficiency gains may result in lower
energy costs and increase energy use. And people may use the
time and money freed up by ICT efficiencies to engage in other
more energy intensive activities [5]. Moreover, energy reduction
by adopting energy efficient products and systems patterns can be
offset due to rising levels of consumption by the growth in income
[39]. People living in the eastern region may consume more ICT
products to ensure a better quality of life because of higher
income, thus increasing energy consumption and resulting in a
18 C. Zhang, C. Liu / Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 44 (2015) 12–19

greater rebound effect, compared to those in the central region. Table A1

For the western region, ICT industry has no effectively explanatory VIF tests for multi-collinearity.
Sources: China Statistical Yearbook, China Compendium of Statistics, the CEIC China
power on carbon emissions in the western region. The change of
Premium Database and China Energy Statistical Yearbook during 2000–2010.
CO2 emissions may be more relative with regional policy than ICT
industry. Variable Model 4 Model 8 Model 12 Model 16

lnP 3.05 5.14 3.34 6.15

6. Conclusions and policy implications
This paper investigated the impact of ICT industry on CO2
emissions considering the regional differences in China, using the
STIRPAT model and provincial panel data during 2000–2010. It is
different from most literature from a perspective of ICT technol-
ogy. The result shows that ICT industry contributes to reducing
China’s CO2 emissions and the impact of ICT industry on CO2
emissions in the central region is greater in the eastern region
while that in the western region is insignificant.
The findings not only contribute to advancing the existing
literature, but also deserve special attention from policymakers
in China. First, China should promote the development of ICT
industry in the low-carbon economy. Green ICT should be imple-
mented to ensure environment-friendly use of ICT equipment and
maintain sustainable development of China’s ICT industry in the
long term [40]. Further, Green by ICT should be utilized to build up
the capacity of carbon abatement and energy saving by optimizing
other industries, including monitoring and managing energy use
in the heating system, the lighting system or industrial manufac-
turing, optimizing product and service such as intelligent logistics
and providing virtual service such as video conferencing. However,
an energy-saving technology needs a lot of early investments and
it will always take a long time to produce results. With great
responsibility, China should provide persistent support for the
development of ICT industry.
Second, China should consider regional diversities in making
regional policy concerning ICT industry. On the one hand, ICT
industry should be accelerated in the central region. According to
our research, the potential of CO2 emission reduction by ICT
industry in the central region is greater than that in the eastern
region. Hence, raising the energy efficiency and reducing energy
consumption of heavy industry by ICT industry are pivotal for CO2
emission reduction in the central region. The rapid development of
ICT industry helps to achieve the transition from a heavy industry
towards a knowledge and service sector oriented economy in the
central region [5]. On the other hand, Green life-style should be
advocated in the eastern region. In the eastern region, the level
and scale of ICT industry are higher and larger than that in the
central and wester regions. The rebound effect of ICT industry in
the eastern region is larger. It is therefore crucial to direct the way
people use ICT products in a green direction in the eastern region.
However, there are some limitations to the study. First, this
study gives only a preliminary assessment on the impact of ICT
industry on carbon emissions. Second, this study is constrained to
the period of 2000–2010 due to the lack of availability of statistics.
Moreover, due to the unavailability of the data of related software
and service, the scope of the ICT industry discussed in this study
only referred to the Electronic and Information Manufacturing
industry. Finally, ICT industry is bound up with imports and
exports in China. Further research in consideration of these issues
would contribute to understanding the impact of ICT industry on
CO2 emissions as well.
Acknowledgments
This research is supported by the Fundamental Research Funds
for the Central Universities (no. 20720140020) and also supported
lnA 4.48 5.00 4.33 2.92
lnIS 1.32 2.19 1.15 2.61
lnICT 5.28 6.79 2.70 4.68
lnEI 1.37 1.24 1.17 1.60
lnURB 2.15 3.18 4.88 1.94
Mean VIF 2.94 3.93 2.93 3.32
Notes: The VIF values are all below than 10, indicating that there is no multi-
collinearity.
by the Program for New Century Excellent Talents in University of
Ministry of Education of China (no. NCET-12-0327).
Appendix
See Table A1.
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