Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Project Report
On
At
Submitted To:
Gopal Vidyanagar.
Submitted By:
ID NO: 06BBA83
1
Acknowledgement:
I wish to express my heartfelt gratitude to my internal guide Mrs. Dhara Acharya whose
constant help and support at all stages of this project has enabled me to complete it.
I am thankful to my external guide Mr. Sailesh Patel, without whom this project would
not have been completed successfully.
Last but not least, I thank all those who have helped me directly or indirectly during the
course of this project.
Prajapati Vipul L.
06 BBA 83
2
Declaration
I, Vipul Prajapati from Bhulabhai Vanmalibhai Patel institute of Business Management,
Computer, & Information Technology, Tarsadi, here by declare that the project report has
been undertaken as a part of 6th Semester of Bachelor of Business Administration (BBA)
syllabus of Veer Narmad South Gujarat University, Surat. I declare that this report has
not been submitted to any other university or institute for any other purposes.
Date:
3
INDEX
Page
Ch. No Topic
No
Executive Summery
Synopsis
Introduction
1 About Topic 12
Theoretical Frame Work
2 Research Objectives 37
3 Research Methodology 39
7 Recommendations 60
References
8 Bibliography 62
Appendix
4
5
Ch.1 EXECUTIVE SUMMERY
An investor wants to invest his money in various kinds of securities but each and every
investment contains some level of risk and as a reward he gets the return. But before
making an investment in particular security he makes the analysis on the particular
security. In security analysis I have measured risk, return, correlation between security
price and index price, ratio. For that I have collected the secondary data. I have selected
four automobile companies from the following three criteria.
Same Industry
Same Index
High performance.
In my topic I have selected “EXPLORATORY RESEARCH DESIGN” which is based
on the secondary data.
In my study I have taken 3-year data (1st January 2005 to 31st December 2008) of seven
Automobile Company, which is listed in “NATIONAL STOCK EXCHANGE”
6
The objective of my study is the following.
To measure the expected return and risk associated with the security.
To know the relationship between market return and security return.
To find out correlation between the indexes.
To find out current position of company.
7
8
Ch.2: SYNOPSIS
5. OBJECTIVE OF RESEARCH:
To measure the expected return and risk associated with the security.
To know the relationship between market return and security return.
To find out correlation between the indexes.
To find out current position of company.
9
6. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY:
Research Methodology is a systematic and objective study of a particular problem. The
Research Methodology process involves a number of inter-related activities.
Research Design:
In my topic I have selected exploratory research design and also descriptive research
design because my study is based on past data and data are collected from secondary
sources and need to be describing these data.
Sample Size:
For doing equity research of automobile company I have select 7 (seven) automobile
companies.
8. TATA MOTORS LTD
9. MARUTI UDYOG LTD.
10. HERO HONDA MOTORS LTD
11. EICHER MOTOTRS
12. ASHOK LEYLAND
13. TVS MOTORS
14. M&M MOTORS
The following criteria should be used for the selection of a company.
Same Industry
Same Index
High performance.
10
11
Ch.3: Introduction
Angel Broking's tryst with excellence in customer relations began more than 20 years
ago. Today, Angel has emerged as a premium Indian stock-broking and wealth
management house, with an absolute focus on retail business, and a commitment to
provide "Real Value for Money" to all its clients.
The Angel Group is a member of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), National Stock
Exchange (NSE) and the two leading Commodity Exchanges in the country i.e. NCDEX
& MCX. We are also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL.
Services:
Presence:
Management:
Mr. Dinesh Thakkar is the founder Chairman & Managing Director of the Angel Group
of Companies. Born into a reputed business family, Mr. Thakkar ventured into the stock
markets essentially to raise capital for his own independent enterprise. However, he
recognized the opportunity offered by the stock markets to serve individual investors, and
established the industrys first retail-focused stock-broking house in 1987. The visionary
in him also ensured that Angel was the first broking firm to introduce the branch-concept
as well as to adopt new technology for faster, more effective & affordable services to
retail investors.
Valued for his understanding of the economy and the stock-markets, Mr. Thakkar is often
sought out by the print and electronic media for his views on the trends in the markets as
well as investment strategies.
Business Philosophy:
13
Quality Assurance Policy
We are committed to being the Leader in providing World Class Products & Services
which exceed the expectations of our customers achieved by teamwork and a process of
continuous improvement.
Motto
Our motto is to make our customer smile - To have complete harmony between Quality-
in-Process and continuous improvement to deliver exceptional service that will delight
our Customers and Clients.
CRM Policy
Customer is King
STRENGTHS
Our biggest strength is that we understand the needs of a sub – broker and retail investors
are very well. Deriving inspiration from our vision of providing the best value for money
to our customers, strict adherence to compliance norms and ethical biz practices has
enabled us and our associates to grow rapidly in an increasingly competitive market. Our
commitment of providing world-class broking services to the Indian inventors and a
customer centric work culture has led to several innovations in the areas of technology,
processes and HR. This spirit of innovation helps you to grow your business with us.
We have always endeavored to provide timely research based advice to our clients from
the nimble-footed day traders to the long-term value investors. Our 50 member research /
advisory team comprises of experienced fundamental and technical analysts, sector
14
specialists, derivative strategies and commodity analysts who are constantly looking for
new trading ideas. This team is armed with the latest analytical tools and uses
international news services.
ACHIEVEMENTS:
Angel Broking has once again been awarded the prestigious ‘Major Volume Driver’
award for the second consecutive year of 2005-2006 by The Bombay Stock Exchange.
This coveted title was earlier conferred upon Angel by the BSE for the year 2004-2005.
Business:
15
2) Introduction to National Stock Exchange
The Organization
The National Stock Exchange of India Limited has genesis in the report of the High
Powered Study Group on Establishment of New Stock Exchanges, which recommended
promotion of a National Stock Exchange by financial institutions (FIs) to provide access
to investors from all across the country on an equal footing. Based on the
recommendations, NSE was promoted by leading Financial Institutions at the behest of
the Government of India and was incorporated in November 1992 as a tax-paying
company unlike other stock exchanges in the country.
On its recognition as a stock exchange under the Securities Contracts (Regulation) Act,
1956 in April 1993, NSE commenced operations in the Wholesale Debt Market (WDM)
segment in June 1994. The Capital Market (Equities) segment commenced operations in
November 1994 and operations in Derivatives segment commenced in June 2000.
Our Mission
NSE's mission is setting the agenda for change in the securities markets in India. The
NSE was set-up with the main objectives of:
16
Promoters:
NSE has been promoted by leading financial institutions, banks, insurance companies and
other financial intermediaries:
17
Securities Available for Trading:
The Capital Market (Equities) segment of NSE facilitates trading in the following
instruments:
A. Shares
Equity Shares
Preference Shares
B. Debentures
The Securities & Exchange Board of India (SEBI) approved the report on Internet
Trading brought out by the SEBI Committee on Internet Based Trading and Services In
January 2000. Internet trading can take place through order routing systems, which will
route client orders to exchange trading systems for execution. Thus a client sitting in any
part of the country would be able to trade using the Internet as a medium through brokers'
Internet trading systems.
SEBI-registered brokers can introduce Internet based trading after obtaining permission
from respective Stock Exchanges. SEBI has stipulated the minimum conditions to be
fulfilled by trading members to start Internet based trading and services, vide their
circular no.SMDRP/POLICY/CIR-06/2000 dated January 31, 2000.
18
2) Topic: Equity Research – Automobile Industry
What is Equity?
Definition:
Fairness in law.
Equity shares are common stock, implies ownership in the company. Stock trading goes
on in the stock market at places like the National Stock Exchange.
Equity Research
Investment brings back high returns and value. It is crucial and critical for any
organization or business to invest for growth. You might be confident of your investment
plans but there is always a doubt about the company in which you are investing. Equity
Research is the answer to avoid any kind of investment risk.
Companies globally are adopting equity research before taking critical decisions of
investment. The equity research combined with the awareness of the strengths and
weaknesses of your company is highly beneficial. It provides you with a clear picture for
investments.
19
Indian Equity Market
The Indian Equity Market is also the other name for Indian share market or Indian stock
market. The forces of the market depend on monsoons, global fundings flowing into
equities in the market and the performance of various companies. The Indian market of
equities is transacted on the basis of two major stock indices, National Stock Exchange of
India Ltd. (NSE) and The Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), the trading being carried on in
a dematerialized form. The physical stocks are in liquid form and cannot be sold by the
investors in any market. Two types of funds are there in the Indian Equity Market,
Venture Capital Funds and Private Equity Funds.
The equity indexes are correlated beyond the boundaries of different countries with their
exposure to common calamities like monsoon which would affect both India and
Bangladesh or trade integration policies and close connection with the foreign investors.
From 1995 onwards, both in terms of trade integration and FIIs India has made an
advance. All these have established a close relationship between the stock market indexes
of India stock market and those of other countries. The Stock derivatives adds up all
futures and options on all individual stocks. This stock index derivatives was found to
have gone up from 12 % of NSE derivatives turnover in 2002 to 35 % in 2004. The
Indian Equity Market also comprise of the Debt Market, dominated by primary dealers,
banks and wholesale investors.
Indian Equity Market at present is a lucrative field for the investors and investing in
Indian stocks are profitable for not only the long and medium-term investors, but also the
position traders, short-term swing traders and also very short term intra-day traders. In
terms of market capitalization, there are over 2500 companies in the BSE chart list with
the Reliance Industries Limited at the top. The SENSEX today has rose from 1000 levels
to 8000 levels providing a profitable business to all those who had been investing in the
Indian Equity Market. There are about 23 stock exchanges in India which regulates the
market trends of different stocks. Generally the bigger companies are listed with the NSE
and the BSE, but there is the OTCEI or the Over the Counter Exchange of India, which
20
lists the medium and small sized companies. There is the SEBI or the Securities and
Exchange Board of India which supervises the functioning of the stock markets in India.
In the Indian market scenario, the large FMCG companies reached the top line with a
double-digit growth, with their shares being attractive for investing in the Indian stock
market. Such company like the Tata Tea, Britannia, to name a few, has been providing a
bustling business for the Indian share market. Other leading houses offering equally
beneficial stocks for investing in Indian Equity Market, of the SENSEX chart are the
two-wheeler and three-wheeler maker Bajaj Auto and second largest software exporter
Infosys Technologies.
Other than some restricted industries, foreign investment in general enjoys a majority
share in the Indian Equity Market. Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) need to register
themselves with the SEBI and the RBI for operating in Indian stock exchanges. In fact
from the Indian stock market analysis it is known that in some specific industries
foreigners can have even 100% shares. In the last few years with the facility of the Online
Stock Market Trading in India, it has been very convenient for the FIIs to trade in the
Indian stock market. From an analysis on the Indian Equity Market it can be said that the
increase in the foreign investments over the years no doubt have accentuated the
dynamism of the Indian market of equities. Foreign investors are allowed to buy Indian
equity for the purpose of converting the equity into ADR or GDR.
Thus, the growing financial capital markets of India being encouraged by domestic and
foreign investments is becoming a profitable business more with each day. If all the
economic parameters are unchanged Indian Equity Market will be conducive for the
growth of private equities and this will lead to an overall improvement in the Indian
economy.
21
History of Automobile Industry
AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY
The automotive industry designs, develops, manufactures, markets, and sells the world's
motor vehicles. In 2007, more than 73 million motor vehicles, including cars and
commercial vehicles were produced worldwide.
22
The actual horseless carriage was introduced in the year 1893 by brothers Charles and
Frank Duryea. It was the first internal-combustion motor car of America, and it was
followed by Henry Ford's first experimental car that same year.
The 1937 Pontiac De Luxe sedan had roomy interior and rear-hinged back door that
suited more to the needs of families. In 1930s, vehicles were less boxy and more
streamlined than their predecessors. The 1940s saw features like automatic transmission,
sealed-beam headlights, and tubeless tires.
The year 1957 brought powerful high-performance cars such as Mercedes-Benz 300SL. It
was built on compact and stylized lines, and was capable of 230 kmh (144 mph).
This was the Indian automobile history, and today modern cars are generally light,
aerodynamically shaped, and compact.
23
Rational Behind Study
In India there are 100 people per vehicle, while this figure is 82 in China. It is expected
that Indian automobile industry will achieve mass motorization status by 2014.
The Indian Automobile Market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 9.5 percent amounting
to Rs. 13,008 million by 2010. The Commercial Vehicle Segment has been contributing
to the automobile market to a great extent.
Many foreign companies have been investing in the Indian Automobile Market in various
ways such as technology transfers, joint ventures, strategic alliances, exports, and
financial collaborations. The auto market in India can boast of attractive finance schemes,
increasing purchasing power, and launch of the latest products.
Total sales of major car manufacturers in India registered a figure of 0.674 million units
at the end of March, 2007. The number of car exports in India was 39,295 units. General
Motors, Maruti, and Honda accounted for 60 percent of the market sales at the end of
April, 2007. There has been an increase in the purchase of motorcycles and cars both, in
the rural as well as urban areas.
Some vital statistics regarding the automobile market in India has been mentioned below:
As such, the Indian automobile market comprises of a wide variety of vehicles such as
light, medium, and heavy commercial vehicles, cars, scooters, mopeds, motor cycles, 3
wheelers, and multi-utility vehicles such as jeeps and trax.
24
The modern automobile market in India has been considering key issues in the process of
growth:
Snippets:
25
Segment Know how
Among the two-wheeler segment, motorcycles have major share in the market. Hero
Honda contributes 50% motorcycles to the market. In it Honda holds 46% share in
scooter and TVS makes 82% of the mopeds in the country.
40% of the three-wheelers are used as goods transport purpose. Piaggio holds 40% of the
market share. Among the passenger transport, Bajaj is the leader by making 68% of the
three-wheelers.
Cars dominate the passenger vehicle market by 79%. Maruti Suzuki has 52% share in
passenger cars and is a complete monopoly in multipurpose vehicles. In utility vehicles
Mahindra holds 42% share.
In commercial vehicle, Tata Motors dominates the market with more than 60% share.
Tata Motors is also the world's fifth largest medium & heavy commercial vehicle
manufacturer.
Industry Investment
Snippets
26
Why India
The economy of India is emerging. The following table shows the ranking of India in the
past four years.
The passenger car and motorcycle segment in Indian auto Industry is growing by 8-9
per cent.
Current Scenario
The Indian automobile industry crossed a landmark with total vehicle production
of 10 million units.
Car sales was 8,82,094 units against 8,20,179 units in 2004-05.
The two-wheeler market grew by 13.6 per cent with 70,56,317 units against
62,09,765 units in 2004-05.
Commercial vehicles segment grew at 10.1 per cent with 3,50,683 units against
3,18,430 units in 2004-05.
27
Current Scenario
3) Theoretical Prospective
Return:
The purpose of investment is to get a return or income on the funds invested in different
financial assets. Investors want to maximize expected returns subject to their risk
tolerance. Return is the motivating force and the principal reward in the investment
process, and the key method available to investors in comparing alternative investments.
1. Realized return
2. Expected return
Realized return is after the fact returns that was earned. Realized return is history.
Expected return is the return from an asset that investors anticipate they will earn over
some future period. It is a predicted return. It may or may not occur. For measurement of
a return statistical method is used.
28
Formula:
Return= X
Yesterday’s price
Yesterday’s Index
Risk:
The dictionary meaning of risk is the possibility of loss or injury; the degree or
probability of such loss. In risk, the probable of all the possible events are listed. Once
the events are listed subjectively, the derived probabilities can be assigned to the entire
possible events.
1. Systematic Risk
2. Unsystematic Risk
1. Systematic Risk:
The systematic risk affected the entire market. Often we read in the newspaper that the
stock market is the bear hug or in the bull grip. This indicates that the entire market is
moving in particular direction either downward or upward. The economic conditions,
political situations and the sociological changes affect the security Market. The recession
in the economy affects the profit prospect of the industry and the stock market. The 1998
recession experienced by developed and developing countries has affected the stock
markets all over the world. There factors are beyond the control of the corporate and the
investor. They cannot be entirely avoided by the investor.
29
The systematic Risk is further sub-divided into:
I. Market Risk
II. Interest Rate Risk
III. Purchasing Power Risk
Market Risk:
Jack Clark Francis has defined market risk as that portion of total variability of return
caused by alternating forces of bull and bear markets. When the security index moves
upwards haltingly for a significant period of time, it is known as bull market. In the bull
market, the index moves from a low level to the peak. Bear market is just a reverse to the
bull market; the index declines haltingly from the peak to a market low point called
through for a significant period of time. During the bull and bear market more than 80 per
cent of the securities’ prices rise or fall along with the stock market indices.
The forces that affect the stock market are tangible and intangible events. The tangible
events are real events such as earthquake, war, political uncertainty and fall in the value
of currency.
Intangible events are related to market psychology. The market psychology is affected by
the real events.
Interest rate risk is the variation in the single period rates of return caused by the
fluctuations in the market interest rate. Most commonly interest rate risk affects the price
of bonds, debentures and stocks. The fluctuations in the interest rates are caused by the
changes in the government monetary policy and the changes that occur in the interest
rates of treasury bills and the government bonds. The bonds issued by the government
and quasi-government are considered to be risk free. If higher interest rates are offered,
investor would like to switch his investments from private sector bonds to public sector
bonds.
Likewise, if the stock market is in a depressed condition, investors would like to shift
their money to the bond market, to have an assured rate of return. The best example is
30
that in April 1996, most of the initial public offerings of many companies remained
undersubscribed but IDBI and IFC bonds were oversubscribed. The assured rate of return
attracted the investors from the stock market to the bond market.
Variations in the returns are caused also by the loss of purchasing power of currency.
Inflation is the reason behind the loss of Purchasing Power. The level of inflation
proceeds faster than the increase in capital value. The rise in price penalizes the returns to
the investor, and every potential rise in price is a risk to the investor.
The inflation may be demand-pull or cost-push inflation. In the demand-pull inflation, the
demand for goods and services are in the excess of their supply. At full employment level
of factors of production, the economy would not be able to supply more goods in the
short run and the demand for products pushes the price upward. The equilibrium between
demand and supply is attained at a higher price level.
The cost-push inflation indicates that the inflation or rise in price is caused by the
increase in the cost. The increase in the cost of raw material, labour and equipment makes
the cost of production high and ends in high price level.
2. Unsystematic Risk:
1) Business Risk
2) Financial Risk
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Business Risk:
Business Risk is that portion of the unsystematic Risk caused by the operating
environment of the business. Business Risk arises from the inability of a firm to maintain
its competitive edge and the growth or stability of the earnings. Variation that occurs in
the operating environment is reflected on the operating income and expected dividends.
The variation in the expected operating income indicates the Business Risk. Business risk
is concerned with the difference between revenue and earning before interest and tax.
Business Risk can be divided into:
c) Personnel management:
The personnel management of the company also contributes to the operational efficiency
of the firm. Frequent strikes and lock outs result in loss of production and high fixed
32
capital cost. The labour productivity also would suffer. The risk of labour management is
present in all the firms. It is up to the company to solve the problems at the table level
and provide adequate incentives to encourage the increase in labour productivity.
d) Fixed cost:
The cost components also generate internal risk if the fixed cost is higher in the cost
component. During the period of recession or low demand for product, the company
cannot reduce the fixed cost. At the same time in the boom period also the fixed factors
cannot vary immediately. Thus, the high fixed cost component in a firm would become a
burden to the firm. The fixed cost component has to be kept always in a reasonable size,
so that it may not affect the profitability of the company.
e) Single product:
The internal business risk is higher in the case of firms producing a single product. The
fall in the demand for a single product would be fatal for the firm.
External Risk is the result of operating conditions imposed on the firm by circumstances
beyond its control. The External environments in which it operates exert some pressure
on the firm. The external factors are social and regulatory factors, monetary and fiscal
policies of the government, business cycle and the general economic environment within
which a firm or an industry operates.
b. Political risk:
Political risk arises out of the change in the government policy. With a change in the
ruling party, the policy also changes.
c. Business cycle:
33
The fluctuations of the business cycle lead to fluctuations in the earnings of the company.
Recession in the economy leads to a drop in the output of many industries. Steel and
white consumer goods industries tend to move in tandem with the business cycle. During
the boom period, there would be hectic demand for steel products and white consumer
goods. But at the same time, they would be hit much during the recession period. At
present, the information technology industry has resisted the business cycle and moved
counter cyclically during the recession period. The effects of the business cycle vary from
one company to another. Sometimes, with inadequate capital and consumer base may be
forced to close down. In some other case, there may be a fall in the profit and the growth
rate may decline. This risk factor is external to the corporate bodies and they may not be
able to control it.
Financial Risk:
Financial Risk refers to the variability of the income to the equity capital due to the debt
capital. Financial Risk in a company is associated with the capital structure of the
company. Capital structure of the company consists of equity funds and borrowed funds.
1. BETA:
Beta is the slope of the characteristics regression line. Beta describes the relationship
between the stock’s return and the index return.
= * - x*y
*2 - 2
1. BETA = +1.0
1% change in market index return causes exactly 1% change in the stock return. It
indicates that the stock moves in tandem with the market.
2. BETA = +0.5
34
1% change in market index return causes 0.5% change in the stock return. The stock
is less volatile compared to the market.
3. BETA = +2.0
1% change in market index return causes 2% change in the
Stock return. The stock return is more volatile. The stocks with more than one
4. Negative beta value indicates that the stock return moves in the opposite direction
to the market return.
2. STANDARD DEVIATION:
It is a measure of the values of the variables around its mean in other words it can be said
that it is the square root of the sum of the squared deviation from the mean divided by
the number of observations.
ALPHA:
Alpha indicates that the stock return is independent of the market return .A positive value
of alpha is a healthy sign. A positive alpha value would yield profitable return.
= - *
CORRELATION:
The correlation co-efficient measures the nature and the extent of relationship between
the stock market index return and the stock return in a particular period.
R= * - x*y
35
36
Ch. 4 Research Objective
Primary objective:
My research objective would be to make research on equity market and security analysis
on automobile industry. Investors are concerned with two principal properties inherent in
securities. The return and the risk that can be expected from holding a security.
Secondary Objective:
To measure the expected return and risk associated with the security.
To know the relationship between market return and security return.
To find out correlation between the indexes.
To find out current position of company.
37
38
Ch.5: Research Methodology
Research Methodology is a systematic and objective study of a particular problem. The
Research Methodology process involves a number of inter-related activities.
Problem statement:
“Equity Research – Automobile Industry”
Research Objective:
Primary objective:
My research objective would be to make research on equity market and security analysis
on automobile industry. Investors are concerned with two principal properties inherent in
securities. The return and the risk that can be expected from holding a security.
Secondary Objective:
To measure the expected return and risk associated with the security.
To know the relationship between market return and security return.
To find out correlation between the indexes.
To find out current position of company.
Research Design:
In my topic I have selected exploratory research design and also descriptive research
design because my study is based on past data and data are collected from secondary
sources and need to be describing these data.
39
Selection Period of Scrip Data:
In my study I have taken 3-year data (1st January 2005 to 31st December 2008) of seven
Automobile Company, which is listed in “NATIONAL STOCK EXCHANGE”
Sample Size:
For doing equity research of automobile company I have select 7 (seven) automobile
companies.
1. TATA MOTORS LTD
2. MARUTI UDYOG LTD.
3. HERO HONDA MOTORS LTD
4. EICHER MOTOTRS
5. ASHOK LEYLAND
6. TVS MOTORS
7. M&M MOTORS
40
41
Ch. 6: Limitation of the Study
Following are the limitation of the study: -
42
43
Ch.7: Data Analysis and Interpretation
After collecting the previous Three-year data I have make the analysis of risk with the
help of beta () and S.D. alpha (), return, correlation between market index price and
security index price.
Maruti:
Particular Maruti
EXPECTED RETURN 0.0417
Interpretation:
1. The value of Beta () = 0.8640 means 1 percentage changes in market price will
feed to 0.8640 percentage change in price of stock.
2. The value of alpha () is -0.0029 it means stock performance is better than
market.
44
Hero Honda:
Interpretation:
1. The value of Beta () = 0.5048 means 1 percentage changes in market price will
feed to 0.5048 percentage change in price of stock.
2. The value of alpha () is 0.0266 it means that the unsystematic risk of the
company is less.
45
TATA:
Particular Tata
EXPECTED RETURN -0.0797
Interpretation:
1. The value of Beta () = 1.0307 means 1 percentage changes in market price will
feed to 1.0307 percentage change in price of stock. And also high volatility
(Risky).
2. The value of alpha () is -0.1329 (negative) it also interpret that stock performance
is worst than market.
46
M&M:
Particular M&M
EXPECTED RETURN -0.0217
Interpretation:
1. The value of Beta () = 0.2720 means 1 percentage changes in market price will
feed to 0.2720 percentage change in price of stock, less volatility.
2. The value of alpha () is -0.0357 it means that the unsystematic risk of the
company is less.
47
TVS:
Particular TVS
EXPECTED RETURN -0.0793
Interpretation:
1. The value of Beta () = 0.9560 means 1 percentage changes in market price will
feed to 0.9560 percentage change in price of stock.
2. The value of alpha () is -0.1287 it means that the unsystematic risk of the
company is less.
48
Ashokleyand:
Particular Ashokley
EXPECTED RETURN 0.0165
Interpretation:
1. The value of Beta () = 0.2240 means 1 percentage changes in market price will
feed to 0.2240 percentage change in price of stock.(less volatility)
2. The value of alpha () is 0.0049 it means that the stock performance is on par with
market.
49
Eicher:
Particular Eicher
EXPECTED RETURN 0.0496
Interpretation:
1. The value of Beta () = 0.8029 means 1 percentage changes in market price will
feed to 0.8029 percentage change in price of stock.
2. The value of alpha () is 0.0081 it means that the unsystematic risk of the
company is average. i.e. stock performance is on par with market.
50
51
Ch.8: Findings and Conclusion
Expected Return:
Expected Return
-0.06
-0.08
-0.0797 -0.0793
-0.1
Company
Conclusion:
The expected return of nifty is 0.0517. Maruti, Hero Honda and Eicher gives better return
then other automobile company is 0.0417, 0.0527 and 0.0496respectively. In contrast
Tata, M&M, and TVS gives negative return i.e. -0.0797,-0.0217 and -0.0793. So, Hero
Honda gives highest return then other automobile company i.e. 0.0527.
52
Beta ():
Beta describes the relationship between the stock’s return and the index returns.
= * - x*y
*2 - 2
Risk (b)
1.2 1.0307
0.956
1 0.864 0.8029
0.8
0.6 0.5048 Risk (b)
0.4 0.272 0.224
0.2
0
Company
Conclusion:
Beta is high in Tata i.e.1.0307 that means one per cent change in market index return
cause 1.0307 per cent change in the stock return. Moreover Maruti, TVS, and Eicher have
beta are more than average is 0.864, 0.956 and 0.8029 respectively. But Hero Honda,
M&M and Ashok Leyland have less volatility compared to other i.e.0.5048, 0.272 and
0.224.
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Alpha ():
Alpha indicates that the stock return is independent of the market return .A positive value
of alpha is a healthy sign. A positive alpha value would yield profitable return.
Alpha (a)
0.04 0.0266
0.02 0.0049 0.0081
0
-0.02 -0.0029
-0.04
-0.0357
-0.06 Alpha (a)
-0.08
-0.1
-0.12
-0.14 -0.1287
-0.1329
-0.16
Company
Conclusion:
Tata, M&M, and TVS has negative Alpha i.e. -0.1329, 0.0357 and -0.1287 respectively
that means its stock performance is worst than market. When Hero Honda has high
positive alpha means Hero Honda’s Stock performance better than market.
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Correlation (R):
The correlation co-efficient measures the nature and the extent of relationship between
the stock market index return and the stock return in a particular period. It gives the
percentage of variation in the stock’s return.
R= * - x*y
Correlation (R)
0.8 0.7041
0.7 0.6494
0.5553
0.6
0.5 0.4398 0.4445
0.4 Correlation (R)
0.3 0.163
0.2 0.1173
0.1
0
Company
Conclusion:
Maruti, Tata, and TVS are highly correlated with index means they have high variations
in the stock returns. Where Hero Honda, M&M, and Ashok Leyland have less correlated
with index return.
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S.D. ():
It is a measure of the values of the variables around its mean. It is most common measure
of statistical dispersion, measuring how widely spread the value in a data set is.
S.D.
4 3.614 3.4169
3.5 3.1561 3.2571
3 2.7691
2.5167
2.5 1.8917 2.171
2 S.D. of Y
1.5
1
0.5
0
Company
Conclusion:
In M&M, TVS, Ashok Leyland, and Eicher have large S.D. is 3.1561, 3.2571, 3.614,
3.4169 respectively. It means data points are far from it mean. Hero Honda have smallest
S.D. is 2.171 than other automobile company.
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Variance ():
()
Variance
14 13.0607
11.6752
12 9.961 10.609
10 7.6677
8 6.334
4.7133 Variance
6 3.5786
4
2
0
Company
Conclusion:
Hero Honda have low variance 4.7133 that means no more fluctuation in its value,
compare to other. Ashok Leyland has high variance 13.0607 it means that data value is
highly fluctuated in market.
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Findings:
6. From above table it is clear that Hero Honda gives good return, have less beta,
and variance is also less. So, Hero Honda Company is best among other
automobile company. Then Eicher performance is average as have good return
but high beta and variance.
7. Tata, M&M, and TVS have worst performance because they give negative
return and alpha, also have high variance.
Concision:
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59
Ch.9 Recommendation
1. Apart from other automobile company Hero Honda gives better return, have low
risk beta, low variance.
2. The overall risk in Automobile Industry is less.
3. Two Wheelers and cars (Hero Honda, Maruti) performance is better than heavy
vehicles and tractors (Tata, M&M, Ashok Leyland, and Eicher).
4. Overall growth of automobile sector is move upwards.
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61
Ch. 10 Reference
1. Bibliography:
Books:
Journal/Magazine/ periodicals:
Daven Malkan (2008), “Corporate India, The Corporate magazine for Business and
Investor”, New Delhi.
Website:
1. http://www.nseindia.com/content/equities/.htm
2. http://www.moneycontrol.com/nifty/nse/nifty-live
3. http://www.nseindia.com/content/us/us_promoters.htm
4. http://www.surfindia.com/automobile/automobile-industry.html
5. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fast_moving_consumer_goods#column-one#column-one
6. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stock
7. http://www.angelbroking.com/index.asp
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3. Appendix:
63
Correlation 0.4398
Expected
Return Ex 0.0517 Ey 0.0527
(Ex)2= 0.0027 (EY)2= 0.0028
= 0.5048
= 0.0266
B=n*EXY-
BETA (EX)*(EY) 1788351.012
n*EX2-(EX)2 3542920.647
SD OF X 1.8917
SD OF Y 2.1710
V OF X 3.5786
V OF Y 4.7133
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65
66
Findings:
67