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THE
As with the establishment of any new law, 2016 has been an active year for the White Land Tax. The tax was
introduced in Q4 2015 without much detail. Since then, the regulations were released in June 2016 and the six-
Timeline for White Land
month registration Tax for landowners, whose lands met the criteria, opened.
period
2016 2017
The regulations defined white lands as any idle lands designated for residential or residential / commercial use
White
withinLand
theTax
urban boundaries outlined by the Ministry of Housing (MoH). Apart from defining white lands, the
The
regulationsintroduced
tax was in Q4 other
also revealed 2015 items
withoutincluding
much detail.
theSince Following
responsibility the end of
of payment, the registration
exemptions andperiod in December,
phasing. The taxthe
willMoH
then, the regulations
be introduced overwere
four released
phases,inhowever,
June 2016 and housing
if the the six- supply and demand equilibrium is adjusted in the earlier
month
phases registration period for
the remaining landowners,
phases will notwhose lands met the
be introduced. The four announced
phases are: the total area of land registered reached 634,999,900
criteria, opened. sq m. The breakdown of land registered in each city is illustrated
in the table below:
Phase 1 - Undeveloped land with an area that exceeds 10,000 sq m.
The regulations define white land as any idle land designated
Phase 2 - Developed land with an area that exceeds 10,000 sq m. Total Land Area Registered (sq m)
for residential or residential / commercial use within the urban
Phase 3 - Developed land with an area that exceeds 5,000 sq m. % of which is over 10,000 sq m
boundaries outlined by the Ministry of Housing (MoH). Apart
Phase 4 - Developed land with an area that collectively exceeds 10,000.
Riyadh 283,068,860
from defining white lands, the regulations also cover other items 79%
including the responsibility of payment, exemptions and phasing. Jeddah 173,435,460
The situation in each city will be regularly assessed by the MoH to determine whether the next phase of the tax
70%
The tax will be introduced over four phases, however, if the
should be implemented. The tax will only be implemented in cities that suffer from a shortage of
Dammam housing. The first
134,736,273
housing supply and demand equilibrium is adjusted in the earlier
three cities the tax will be implemented in are Riyadh, Jeddah and Dammam. Riyadh will be the first 73% city to be
phases, the remaining phases will not be introduced. The four
invoiced by early 2017 followed closely by Jeddah and Dammam inCities
Other the same year. The urban43,769,348
boundaries for
phases are:
Makkah and Madinah are currently being drawn and expected to be announced by mid-2017. A further three cities
45%
are currently under study; however, their names have not beenSource:
announced.
Ministry of Housing
Phase 1 - Undeveloped land with an area exceeding 10,000 sq m.
Phase 2 - Developed land with an area exceeding 10,000 sq m. It is expected that in 2017, the revenue generated from the
Following the end of the registration period in December, the MoH announced the total area of land registered
Phase 3 - Developed land with an area invoiced properties and the mechanism used to fund the MOH’s
reached 634,999,941sq m. The breakdown of land registered in each city is illustrated in the table below:
exceeding 5,000 sq m from one plan. projects and the plan to improve infrastructures and amenities
Riyadh
Phase 4 - Developed land with an area collectively exceeding 10,000 in Jeddah Dammam
residential neighborhoods Other
currently located Citiesfrom city
further
Total
from one Land
city. Area Registered (sq m) 283,068,860 173,435,460
centers, 134,726,273
will be announced. 43,769,348
% which is over 10,000 sq m 79% 70% 73% 45%
Source:
The Ministry
situation in ofeach
Housing
city will be regularly assessed by the
MoH to determine whether the next phase of the tax should be
It is expected that in 2017, the revenue generated from the invoiced properties and the mechanism used to fund
implemented. The tax will only be implemented in cities that suffer
the MOH’s projects and the plan to improve infrastructures and amenities in residential neighborhoods currently
from a shortage of housing. The first three cities the tax will be
located further from city centers, will be announced.
implemented in are Riyadh, Jeddah and Dammam. Riyadh will
be the first city to be invoiced by early 2017, followed closely by
Home Financing
Jeddah and Dammam in the same year. The urban boundaries for
Makkah and Madinah are currently being drawn and are expected
Home financing in Saudi has been another active area over the last year. Speculation in late 2015 that the 70%
to be announced by mid-2017. A further three cities are currently
LTV announced by SAMA in 2014 would increase to 85% for specialized mortgage lenders were realized in early
under study; however, their names have not been announced.
2016. SAMA increased LTVs to increase accessibility to home ownership. So far, raising the LTV has had little
impact on the market. Real estate transactions registered by the Ministry of Justice decreased by 29% in 2016
compared to 2015.
Residential
Rental Growth Rents Rental Growth Rents
Slowing Falling Slowing Falling
Office Office
Office
Residential
Hotel*
Rental Growth Rents Rental Growth Rents
Slowing Falling Slowing Falling
Retail
Office
Residential
2016 has been a relatively inactive year in terms of project materialization, Looking ahead to 2017, the majority of office space in the pipeline will
with the only completion this year being MIG Tower on Al Thumama be delivered from one project; the first phase of ITCC (160,000 sq m).
Street, which added 21,000 sq m of office space. Elegance Tower on The remaining projects under construction are mid-scale developments
King Fahd Road, expected to enter the market in Q4 2016, has been located on King Fahd Road including CMC Tower (10,400 sq m) and the
delayed to 2017. delayed Elegance Tower (24,000 sq m).
4,000
3,500
3,000
GLA (000's) sq m
364
224
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000 2,100 2,300 2,400 2,500 2,500 2,724
500
0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F
Source: JLL Completed Future Supply
PERFORMANCE
Office rents have remained largely unchanged increasing by just 1% downsized in 2016 will likely add upward pressure on vacancies in
over the past year. Average office rents held up due to an increase in Riyadh over 2017. This may be further impacted once public bodies begin
rents outside of the CBD, whereas CBD rents decreased by just over 4%. to downsize in line with the National Transformation Program’s measure
Average rents decreased by almost 4% over the final quarter. to reduce the public workforce by a fifth.
The economic slowdown has impacted vacancies in Riyadh. Despite the Should some of the office space in King Abdullah Financial District be
subdued state of the office completions in 2016, with only one property repurposed to residential or hospitality use as planned by the Saudi
entering the market, vacancies continue to increase in the city, rising to Vision 2030, then some of the supply in the pipeline for 2018 and 2019
13% by the end of year. will be withdrawn. This should alleviate some of the downward pressure
on future office rentals.
The release of shadow space into the market from companies which
Source: JLL
Source: JLL
Riyadh Jeddah
dh Jeddah
CBD Rents CBD Ren
ents CBD Rents
(SAR per sq m) (SAR per sq
sq m) (SAR per sq m)
The current supply of office space in Jeddah reached almost 984,000 sq A number of small to mid-scale projects may be withdrawn from the supply
m in Q4 2016. The most notable completion in 2016 was Emaar Square, pipeline as landlords change the purpose of the building from commercial
which began handing over to tenants in Q4. Emaar Square (24,000 sq m) to furnished apartments, which are growing in popularity.
was the largest completion in Jeddah since the Headquarters entered the
market in 2014. There were no other completions in Q4 2016.
1,200
100 86
1,000
GLA (000's) sq m
800
600
400
742 853 892 984 984 1,084
200
0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F
Source: JLL Completed Future Supply
PERFORMANCE
2016 saw office rents soften marginally (-1%). The softening lease rates owner occupier buildings, along with the decision of more companies to
reflected the contracting economic conditions in the market due to the postpone or scale back their expansion plans.
decline in oil prices and completion, or near completion, of a number
of infrastructure projects which will see engineering and contracting The market is likely to swing in favor of occupiers as waning demand
companies reduce their office space requirements. for office space will create more room for negotiation adding downward
pressure on lease rates. This may result in a more notable decline in
Y-o-Y vacancy rates remained stable in Q4 2016 at 6% despite a number average rents.
of vacancies over the last two quarters. Average rents currently stand at
SAR 1,124, which declined marginally (-1%) Y-o-Y but remained stable Medical clinics are increasingly leasing space within office buildings due
over the quarter. to the limited stock of purpose built clinical buildings in Jeddah. This is
positive news for landlords as it increases the diversity of the tenant pool
Further declines in lease rates and occupancies are expected over 2017. in Jeddah which is witnessing waning demand from corporate occupiers.
The main cause of vacancies will be the release of shadow vacancies
into the market as a number of companies move out of rented space into
Source: JLL
Riyadh Jeddah
CBD Rents CBD Rents
SAR per sq m) (SAR per sq m)
Al Mahmal Commercial Center, which added approximately 12,000 sq The future pipeline of office space in the DMA includes a number of mid
m of office space, was the only major completion in the second half of to large scale projects. This will add further downward pressure on both
2016. Looking ahead to 2017, a large area of office space is expected to rents and occupancies in 2017.
enter an already oversupplied market including Abdul Karim Tower and
Al Hajri Tower. The business park concept continues to be popular. A number of new
projects have been announced including: Union Square and Alkaltham
The delay in the materialisation of large master planned projects in the Business Park.
DMA, such as the Marina development and Al Rashed City, is positive
news for the current office market. Such developments may become
commercial hubs and compete with existing buildings.
1,200
1,000 30
GLA (000's) sq m
800 105
600
400
521 542 669 751 751 856
200
0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F
Source: JLL Completed Future Supply
PERFORMANCE
Out of the three main cities in Saudi, the DMA has the lowest average Vacancies in Q4 2016 averaged 39%. The high vacancy rate reflects the
office rents, which currently stand at SAR 970. The current climate has oversupply in the market caused by the completion of a number of mid-
added downward pressure on grade A office rents. Whereas rents for the scale projects, ranging between 20,000 – 30,000 sq m, in 2014 and 2015
prime buildings reach SAR 1,500, there are few buildings in the DMA coupled with the crash in oil price earlier this year which caused a direct
where rents exceed SAR 1,300. impact on tenants operating in the oil and gas sectors in the DMA.
Approximately 4,000 units mostly formed of stand alone villas and apartment East Gate has showcased how the private sector can successfully work with
buildings entered the market in Q4 2016. The only notable completion was by the government to deliver units to those who qualify for housing support from
Masa Alamaeriah Group which added 59 villas to the market. the Ministry of Housing and for a loan from the Real Estate Development
Fund. 100% of the units have been reserved prior to the commencement of
A further 25,000 units are expected to enter the market in 2017. Unlike construction.
other major cities, Riyadh has a number of large scale communities under
development. Some of the more notable projects include the Green Oasis Unit prices in East Gate start from SAR 650,000 and the difference between
development by Al Argan which is expected to deliver over 900 villas in 2017, the cost of the unit and the loan can be paid in installments over a period
and East Gate, which plans to deliver 7,000 villas. This development appeals of four years. The bank will also hold 5% of the value of the contract for an
to the growing demand for community style living. additional year once the unit is delivered as a guarantee. In this way, the end
users interests are protected by ensuring the quality of the product and the flow
In an effort to increase housing supply in the Kingdom, the government has of finance to ensure project materialisation on time.
taken initiatives to work with the private sector this year.
1,000
950
900
PERFORMANCE
Y-o-Y rents for both villas and apartments decreased by 4%. Residential and benefits from public sector employees pay, which further limits their
performances remained relatively stable across the board in Q4 2016, with ability to borrow from the banking and specialized mortgage lender sectors.
falls being limited to just -1%.
The number of residential transactions in Riyadh decreased in 2016 by
Riyadh is expected to be the first city to be invoiced under the White Land around 26% compared to 2015, according to the Ministry of Justice, giving
Tax in January 2017. Although the effect on residential prices is unlikely to buyers more bargaining power. This may add continued downward pressure
be immediate, this is a positive step forward. Affordability is becoming an on sales prices in 2017.
increasingly significant issue, particularly after the removal of certain perks
Source: JLL
Riyadh
Jeddah Riyadh Jeddah
Apartment (2-3BR)
CBD Rents Villa (3BR) Apartment (2-3BR)
(SAR per sq m)
Q4 2016 saw the completion of the first phase (33 villas) of the Murooj Villas The need to shift focus towards affordable housing development was reinforced
development in North Jeddah. The remaining 76 units are expected to enter the by speakers at Cityscape Jeddah earlier this quarter. However, the majority of
market in 2017. A total of approximately 4,000 units were added to the market projects presented were high end developments in either the U.A.E or Turkey,
over the last quarter. with few local projects displayed; indicating a continued preference of Saudi
investors to invest abroad.
Although there were limited notable completions in 2016, the projects which
did complete were part of a growing concept of quality lifestyle developments A number of high rise towers will furnish Jeddah’s skyline over the next 2 –
including: Diyar Al Salama (168 units), Taibah Residential Complex (143 units), 3 years. Projects under development include Diamond Tower, Farsi Seven
Hyat Villas (96 units), the first part of phase 2 of Al Fareeda development (219 Towers, Bayat Plaza, Golden Tower and the Aqua Raffles Towers which
units) and Da’em Residences (120 units). recently begun construction. These developments will add almost 1,000 units
to the market once completed.
The first half of 2017 is expected to see a number of developments enter the
market which were delayed from 2016, including: Farsi Seven Towers, Abraj Al
Hilal 2 and Gardenia Residence.
820
14
800
780
760
740
720
700 754 769 789 803 803 817
680
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F
Source: JLL Completed Future Supply
PERFORMANCE
Following the continuous growth witnessed in 2015, apartment rental Sales prices decreased across the board in Q4 2016 for both apartments
growth slowed over 2016 and Q4 2016 saw a further slowdown in Y-o-Y and villas. Apartment sale prices decreased by 4% Q-o-Q and 7% Y-o-Y,
apartment rents which increased marginally by less than 1%. Q-o-Q rents while villa sale prices decreased by 2% Q-o-Q and saw a steeper decrease
remained relatively stable decreasing marginally by less than 1%. Villa of 12% Y-o-Y.
rents decreased both Q-o-Q and Y-o-Y by 2% and 3% respectively, showing
a continued preference for apartments for rent. Sales prices may decrease further in 2017, given the decrease in residential
transactions by 16% in 2016, compared to 2015, according to the Ministry
of Justice.
Source: JLL
Riyadh Jeddah
Jeddah Jeddah DMA
Villa (3BR) Apartment (2-3BR)
CBD Rents Villa (3BR) Apartments (2BR)
(SAR per sq m)
1% -1%
1% -4% 0% -1% -1%
1,131 1% -4%
1,124 -7% -2%
-1% -3% -2% -12% 3% -8%
-o-Y Q-o-Q
Y-o-Y Y-o-Y Q-oQ Y-o-Y Q-o-Q
Q4 2015 Y-o-Y Q-oQ
Q4 2016 Y-o-Y Q-o-Q
Y-o-Y Y-o-Y Q-oQ Y-o-Y H2 2016 H2 2016
The total stock of residential units in the DMA was approximately 340,000 units The Ministry of Housing has given permission to the Jenan Real Estate
at the end of the year. Approximately 9,000 units entered the market over the Company to sell off-plan units in its luxury residential tower; Al Khobar
year. There were no major completions in the second half of 2016. The majority Views.
of supply remains in the form of traditional stand alone villas and apartment
buildings. The Ministry hopes that allowing developers to market and sell units off-
plan that projects will allow them to meet their targeted completion dates.
Future supply may face some delays in materializing as some large scale This is turn should help improve the current situation of project delays
projects, such as the remaining phases of Al Khobar Lakes, face delays. and low materialization rates and reduce the overall housing shortage.
Apartment complexes providing between 100 – 200 units are on the rise in the Additionally, the Ministry of Housing signed an MoU with a Chinese
DMA, with a number of such projects in the pipeline. Notable projects include: company in August to develop 100,000 units in Al Ahsa, elsewhere in the
The Grand Residence (220 units), Orsiyat Residential Towers (116 units), Eastern Province.
Sawari Residential Tower (130 units) and Sultan Residential Tower (208 units).
380
10
360 9
340
320
300
280
260 323 326 331 340 340 349
240
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F
Source: JLL Completed Future Supply
PERFORMANCE
Increases in apartment and villa rents are showing signs of slowing down. Rents and sales prices are highest in Al Khobar, compared to Dammam
Rents increased by 3% and 4% respectively over the second half of 2016. and Al Dhahran, as Al Khobar remains the preferred residential location in
This is expected to slow further in 2017. the DMA.
Source: JLL
Jeddah DMA
Jeddah DMA
Villa (3BR) Apartments
CBD (2BR)
Rents Villas
(SAR per sq m)
% -2%
1% -3% -2% -12% 1,131 3% 1,124-8% -1% 4% -27%
-Y Q-o-Q
Y-o-Y Y-o-Y Q-oQ Y-o-Y Q4 2015H2 2016 H2 2016
Q4 2016 Y-o-YH2 2016 H2 2016
There were no further completions in Q4 2016. All the supply which areas in the city. Particularly in the growth corridors in the North and East
entered the market earlier in 2016 was convenience retail. However, of the city.
looking ahead to 2017, there are a number of regional and super regional
centers in the pipeline. Shopping centers are increasingly becoming places to meet and socialize
as opposed to just shopping. Particularly in a city which has limited
Much of the future supply over the next two years is concentrated along entertainment offerings. With the expected growth in households opting
the Northern and Eastern Ring Roads and Al Thumama Road. With new to stay locally during school and public holidays, retailers are developing
supply entering the market in those areas, competition amongst shopping their entertainment and F&B offerings by introducing more concepts and
centers will be strong as they compete for the waning demand within new brands.
those catchment areas.
A number of new F&B retailers have recently entered the market including
Nandos, Zafran, Five Guys and Shake Shack. The entrance of new F&B
The current concentration of many shopping centers in the central area of retailers will see more competition and improved quality in this segment
Riyadh, means there is an opportunity to serve relatively underprovided in 2017.
281
1,500
1,000
0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F
Source: JLL Completed Future Supply
PERFORMANCE
Community center rents remained unchanged both Q-o-Q and Y-o-Y. Vacancies increased marginally Y-o-Y and reached 9% as of Q4 2016.
Super regional centers on the other hand continue to show marginal Given the supply which is currently under construction, this is expected to
decreases both Q-o-Q (-1%) and Y-o-Y (-2%). A trend which is likely to increase further over the coming year. Particularly as retailers are likely
continue throughout 2017. to reconsider their expansion plans given weaker household spending.
Source: JLL
1% -1%
1,131 -2%
1,124 0%
-1% 0% -2% -3%
Y-o-Y Q-o-Q
Q4 2015 Y-o-Y
Q4 2016 Q-o-Q
Y-o-Y Y-o-Y Q-o-Q Y-o-Y
The largest completion in 2016 was Al Yasmin Mall, the first quality The changing dynamic of household expenditure in Saudi creates an
shopping center to open in the area of Al Haramain Road, which added opportunity for affordable brands. Data from SAMA shows that although
over 58,000 sq m of quality retail space. There were several other expenditure is still on the rise, the value of spending has stabilized. This
completions in 2016 including Al Khayyat 3, Galleria Commercial Center suggests that households are selecting more affordable brands over
and the expansion of Al Andalus Mall. luxury.
With the delay of the completion of the Red Sea Mall and Al Rabie Many developers have placed their expansion plans within Jeddah on
expansions to Q1 2017, there were no further completions in Q4 2016. hold until there is more economic clarity. Although there have been a
Current supply of retail space in the market stands at 1.15 million sq m. number of shopping centers planned or announced over the last two
years, few have actually reached the construction phase. It is likely that
The next major completion expected to enter will be Jeddah Park many of these centers will face a 2 – 3 year delay in materialization.
(expected in late 2017), followed by King Avenue by Um Al Qura located
in South Obhur.
1,000
800
600
400 979 1,060 1,070 1,150 1,150 1,355
200
0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F
Source: JLL Completed Future Supply
PERFORMANCE
The second half of 2016 witnessed weaker household spending in Vacancies increased marginally during 2016 but remained at 10% in Q4.
Jeddah. Y-o-Y rents decreased by 2% and 3% for regional and super Although dated centers are still responsible for the majority of vacancies,
regional centers respectively. Q-o-Q lease rates for regional centers notable, quality shopping centers, which previously enjoyed 100%
remained unchanged but decreased by 2% for super regional centers. occupancies, are also now witnessing vacancies of around 2%.
Source: JLL
dhRiyadh Jeddah
Jeddah
Retail Rents
Rents CBDRetail
RentsRents
sq m) (SAR per sq m)
62 0%
1% 0% -2%
1,131 -3%
1,124 0%
-1% -2%
016 Q-o-Q
Y-o-Y Y-o-Y Q-o-Q
Q4 2015 Y-o-Y
Q4 2016 Q-o-Q
Y-o-Y Y-o-Y
There were no major completions in the second half of 2016 with the JLL currently tracks 16 centers in the DMA which are classified as
current stock of retail space in the DMA remaining at 1.024 million sq m. community, neighborhood or convenience centers, compared to 5
Only one neighbourhood center is expected to complete in 2017 which regional and super regional centers which typically provides a wider
will add approximately 6,000 sq m to the market. range of retail and entertainment options.
Most of the current major retail supply in the DMA is based in Al Khobar Weaker spending power amongst local residents may actually benefit the
and Al Dhahran. Looking ahead, a number of centers are planned or DMA unlike Jeddah or Riyadh where the effects of weaker spending have
under construction in Dammam including Dammam Mall (by Arabian begun to emerge. Initial statistics indicate that less Saudi households
Centers) and West Avenue (by Hamat Real Estate). are traveling during holiday periods. If more residents in the DMA are
staying over the holidays then expenditure will be spent locally instead
In an area which has historically competed with Bahrain, convenience of in Bahrain.
retail centers (those below 30,000 sq m) outnumber regional and super
regional centers in the DMA. This is likely due to higher demand for larger
centers in Bahrain from Saudi consumers. Particularly during weekends,
school and public holidays.
DMA Retail Supply (2013–2018F)
1,600
1,400
1,200 114
GLA (000's) sq m
6
1,000
800
600
400 956 1,007 1,019 1,024 1,024 1,030
200
0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F
Source: JLL Completed Future Supply
PERFORMANCE
Occupancies in regional and super regional centers in the DMA are quite Given the limited supply entering the market and the likely delay in the
high given the limited supply of major quality centers. Many existing delivery of some of the planned and under construction centers in the
centers are in the neighborhood and community center categories, which DMA; rents are likely to plateau over the next year with some downward
add little supply to the market at a time thus creating limited competition. pressure possible.
Average rents in super regional centers currently average around SAR
2,800 per sq m, while regional center rents are averaging around SAR
2,100 per sq m.
There were no changes to the Riyadh hotel supply during the last quarter of The decline in demand from the business and public sector segments of the
the year and the total number of rooms was 11,800 at the end of the year. This market highlights the need for Riyadh’s hospitality to diversify and to reduce its
represents around 8% growth in available rooms over the course of 2016. reliance on business tourism.
A further 4,300 keys are currently scheduled for 2017, among them several Evidence has already begun to show that fewer households are traveling
projects postponed from 2015 and 2016. We expect a relatively large share of internationally during school and public holidays due to weakening spending
these to experience further delays and open only in 2018 or later. power. The current leisure-oriented offering is relatively limited in comparison
to the size in the city. Hence the opportunity exists for the hospitality market in
These delays in materialization of the hotel pipeline should soften the impact Riyadh to provide a more diversified offering, e.g. within the desert resort market.
of the new entrants on hotel performance in Riyadh and reducing the risk of a This can be expected to attract leisure tourists, especially from the domestic or
significant oversupply situation. regional market.
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000 9,500 9,900 10,700 11,800 11,800 16,100
2,000
0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F
Source: JLL Completed Future Supply
PERFORMANCE
Pressure on hotel occupancy rates in Riyadh increased over the first The strong reliance of Riyadh on business travel and domestic tourism,
half of the year and occupancy rates stabilized around 6 basis points is the main reason for the decrease in performance. Cuts in government
below their 2015 levels over the second half of the year. YT Novemeber spending and quieter business environment over the year can largely
occupancy rates was 54% which is one of the lowest levels ever recorded explain the 17% drop in RevPAR which reached USD 114.
for the city.
ADRs also continued to decline in Q4 2016, yet with a slight slow down
in the pace of decrease over the last months. YT Novemeber ADR
bottomed at USD 211, 7% below its 2015 level.
Hotel Performance
The hotel sector in Jeddah has been active over 2016 with six hotels opening to report a decline in outbound travelers during the school holiday in November
throughout the year. Two of which opened in the last quarter of the year including compared to the same holiday last year.
the Assila The Rocco Forte Hotel & Residential Suites (210 keys and 94
apartments) and the locally branded Casablanca Grand (125 keys) which is the Travel agencies also noted that demand for local flights increased during the
fourth property for the Casablanca Group in Jeddah. These completions have school holiday as more households chose to visit domestic tourism destinations
increased the stock of quality hotel keys in Jeddah by around 1,200 keys which such as Jeddah and the DMA, visit relatives in other cities or go on religious visits
represents a 14% increase compared to last year. to Makkah and Madinah.
Looking ahead, further completions are expected in 2017, including the Ritz The development of the entertainment and tourism sectors in the already popular
Carlton (224 keys) and the Novotel Jeddah Tahlia (139 keys) which are expected tourist city of Jeddah was a theme at Cityscape Jeddah. Projects outlined include
to enter the market in early 2017 and Elaf Galleria (445 keys) expected later in the eventual development of Jeddah Eye and ambitious plans to develop the
2017. Jeddah Corniche.
Weaker spending power is likely to see the number of outbound tourist trips
decrease from Saudi households. Notable travel agencies have already started
Jeddah Hotel Supply (2013–2018F)
16,000
14,000
12,000 1,700 1,600
10,000
KEYS
8,000
6,000
4,000
7,300 7,500 8,600 9,800 9,800 11,500
2,000
0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F
Source: JLL Completed Future Supply
PERFORMANCE
YT November occupancy rates in Jeddah were 68%, down by almost Saudi households to travel outside the country. This is likely to have
7% compared to the same period last year and which can be largely allowed operators to enhance their revenue management strategies and
explained by the decrease in business tourism. maximized ADRs during peak leisure periods.
ADRs, however, have increased by 4% to USD 264 YT November; the RevPAR dropped by almost 7% YT November to USD 179 compared
highest in KSA and the region. Many factors have played in the slight USD 192 during the same period in 2015.
increase in ADR, among them the likely increase in domestic demand
during school holidays and weekends due to the reduced ability of
Hotel Performance
Riyadh Jeddah
Performance Hotel Performance
Source: STR Global
Average Daily Rates Occupancy
Jeddah Average Daily Rates
(USD) (%) (USD)
Hotel Performance
228 211 -7% 75% 68% 255 264 4%
The second half of 2016 witnessed the opening of two internationally branded According to the Tourism Information and Research (MAS), hotels, resorts and
hotels in the DMA; the Golden Tulip Al Khobar Suites (52 keys) and the Aloft furnished apartments experienced 95% - 100% occupancies in the DMA during
Dhahran (262 keys), increasing the supply of quality branded hotels to almost the mid-term school holidays in November 2016.
6,500 keys.
Although high occupancies are not unusual during the holiday period, findings
This marks the fifth property for the Golden Tulip brand in DMA, while the Aloft by MAS indicate a possible change in household behavior. Whereas previously
Dhahran is the brand’s first property in the DMA and the second in KSA. families in the DMA and the Eastern Region preferred to spend their holidays
in Bahrain, weaker purchasing power may lead to families in the Region opting
Although a number of hotels are currently in advanced stages of construction, to holiday locally more often. This is positive news for a sector which has seen
only one hotel is expected to open in 2017: the Radisson Blu Resort Half Moon poorer performance due to a decline in business visitors.
Bay with 136 keys which is a conversion from the former Boudl Half Moon Bay
resort.
8,000 100
6,000
4,000
4,800 5,200 6,100 6,500 6,500 6,600
2,000
0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F
Source: JLL Completed Future Supply
PERFORMANCE
The contraction in the oil and gas sector had a direct impact on the DMA Unlike Jeddah, where ADRs remained high despite decreasing
hospitality market due to its reliance on business tourism. YT November occupancies, ADRs in the DMA have decreased by almost 3% to reach
occupancy rates in the DMA have dropped significantly (-13%) to 55% USD 165. As a result, RevPAR declined by almost 20% to an average of
compared to 68% over the same period in 2015. This is a direct result USD 90 YT November 2016, down from USD 115 during the same period
of the sharp decline in business visitors in the oil and gas and support in 2015.
industries.
Hotel Performance
Riyadh DMA
Performance Hotel Performance
Source: STR Global
Average Daily Rates Occupancy
Jeddah Average Daily Rates
(USD) (%) (USD)
Hotel Performance
224 210 -6% 67% 55% 170 165 -3%
2.8 Apartment - High Rise - Medium Specification Per m2 4,750 5,250 5,750
2.9 Apartment - High Rise - High Specification Per m2 5,500 6,000 6,500
3.2 Offices - Low /Medium Rise - Medium Per m2 3,500 3,750 4,000
Specification
3.3 Offices - Low/Medium Rise - High Specification Per m2 3,800 4,200 4,600
3.4 Offices - High Rise - Low Specification Per m2 3,900 4,200 4,500
3.5 Offices - High Rise - Medium Specification Per m2 4,300 4,600 5,000
3.6 Offices - High Rise - High Specification Per m2 5,000 5,500 6,000
CAR PARKING
4.1 Surface Parking Per m2 220 260 320
4.2 Surface Parking with Shading Per m2 375 475 650
4.3 Above Grade Parking - Approximate 4 levels Per m2 1,750 2,500 3,000
4.4 Below Grade Parking - Approximate 3 levels Per m2 2,250 2,750 3,100
Exclusions: Professional fees, Contingencies, Inflation, Municipality / Statutory fees, Land Acquisition Costs & Financing, Inflation/
Escalation, External Works, Services/Diversions/Upgrades, incoming infrastructure, roads, landscaping, public realm, Value Added Tax (VAT)
Note: Costs/m2 are based on GIA, as per RICS code of measuring practice 6th Edition, all costs assume traditional procurement.
Demand for hotels has traditionally been led by existing supply Restrictions in the number of pilgrims
which was generally in the high end category. Weaker spending Delays in lifting the 20% restrictions on pilgrim permits will
means demand is likely to increase for budget accommodation continue to impact the hotel market in Makkah, but also in Jeddah;
from both Saudi households and business travelers. the gateway to Makkah. These restrictions may also delay the
Kingdom’s diversification efforts, as religious tourism is one of its
There is a further opportunity within the residential sector to tap primary drivers.
into the affordable housing segment of the market, of which, there
is currently a substantial shortage across KSA. Weak oil prices
White Land Tax With oil prices expected to remain low for the immediate future,
With development activity likely to increase over the next two years, this will delay the recovery of the Saudi economy, particularly in
opportunities for private developers to form partnerships with the cities such as the DMA which is heavily reliant on the sector.
public sector will arise.
Delays in infrastructure projects
Real Estate Investment Traded Funds Major infrastructure projects such as the Jeddah, Makkah and
The introduction of REITs can provide better planning and clearer DMA metros can have major positive effects for local economies
exit strategies for investors; e.g. develop – lease – sell. by spurring demand from the construction and support industries.
Prime Office Rent represents the top open-market rent that could Average rents for Shopping Centres represents the quoted
be expected for a notional office unit of the highest quality and average rents for line shops for the major shopping malls in
specification in the best location in a market, as at the survey Riyadh and Jeddah.
date (normally at the end of each quarter period). The Prime
Rent reflects an occupational lease that is standard for the local Vacancy rate is based on estimates from the JLL Retail team, and
market. It is a face rent that does not reflect the financial impact of in the case of Jeddah on data received from the Shopping Centre
tenant incentives, and excludes service charges and local taxes. Committee of the Jeddah Chamber of Commerce and Industry,
and represents the average rate across standard in line shop
Office vacancy rates are based on estimates by the JLL Agency unit shops.
team for a basket of buildings.
Hotels
Retail Hotel room supply is based on existing supply figures provided
Classification of Retail Centres is based upon the ULI definition by the Saudi Commission for Tourism and Antiquities as well as
and based on their GLA: future hotel development data tracked by JLL Hotels.
●● Super Regional Malls have a GLA of above 90,000 sq m Room supply includes 3, 4 and 5 star hotel rooms but excludes
●● Regional Malls have a GLA of 30,000 – 90,000 sq m serviced apartments.
●● Community Malls have a GLA of 10,000 – 30,000 sq m
●● Neighbourhood Malls have a GLA of 3,000 – 10,000 sq m Performance data is based on a monthly survey of hotels
●● Convenience Malls have a GLA of less than 3,000 sq m conducted by STR Global.
For questions and inquires about the KSA real estate market, please contact:
jll-mena.com
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