Integrated electricity and

gas network analysis:

Challenges and opportunities in
low carbon energy systems

Dr Pierluigi Mancarella
Reader in Future Energy Networks
The University of Manchester (former UMIST)
p.mancarella@manchester.ac.uk

Santiago, Chile, 16 January 2015

© 2015 P. Mancarella - The University of Manchester Santiago, 16 January 2015 1

 Outline

 Background, context and challenges

 Renewables, gas generation and the gas network
 It’s not only about electricity
 Can we store renewable electricity in the gas
network?
 What role for gas plant in the future?
 Final remarks

© 2015 P. Mancarella - The University of Manchester Santiago, 16 January 2015 2

 Context and challenges

 Challenging environmental targets

– Europe: “20-20-20”
– UK: 80% renewable energy by 2050

 Volatile and uncertain fuel prices

 Need for investment in the medium to long term
– What technology portfolio

 Increasing penetration of variable and unpredictable (wind,

solar) and inflexible (nuclear, Carbon Capture and Storage
- CCS) generation
– Need for flexibility

© 2015 P. Mancarella - The University of Manchester Santiago, 16 January 2015 3

 The energy trilemma

 How do you deliver energy that is

– Sustainable (low carbon)
– Secure
– Inexpensive

© 2015 P. Mancarella - The University of Manchester Santiago, 16 January 2015 4

 Worried about delivering
a low carbon energy systems?

© 2015 P. Mancarella - The University of Manchester Santiago, 16 January 2015 5

 But…

Ten minute-mean real power exported from a 10MW wind farm over a month

Would you trust this?

© 2015 P. Mancarella - The University of Manchester Santiago, 16 January 2015 6
 How do we provide security today?

© 2015 P. Mancarella - The University of Manchester 7

Santiago, 16 January 2015 7
 So, what’s so challenging?

© 2015 P. Mancarella - The University of Manchester Santiago, 16 January 2015 8

 What role for gas plant?

 Many different scenarios envisaged for the UK

 In basically all scenarios, gas plays a primary role for balancing

 Example of scenarios Renewable energy type

Technology Capacity (GW) Annual generation (TWh)

Wind Solar
Coal 20

Nuclear 6/8/10 10 20.77 7.16

CCGT 40 20 42.74 14.31

Capacity (GW)
OCGT 2 30 64.11 21.47
CCGT – Combined Cycle Gas Turbine 40 85.48 28.63
OCGT – Open Cycle Gas Turbine

System peak demand: 57 GW

Annual system demand: 318 TWh
© 2015 P. Mancarella - The University of Manchester Santiago, 16 January 2015 9
 System performance: annual operational cost

© 2015 P. Mancarella - The University of Manchester Santiago, 16 January 2015 10

 System performance: CO2 emission factor

© 2015 P. Mancarella - The University of Manchester Santiago, 16 January 2015 11

 System performance:
wind curtailment

© 2015 P. Mancarella - The University of Manchester Santiago, 16 January 2015 12

 Generation scheduling example in UK-like system:
20GW wind

peakers

© 2015 P. Mancarella - The University of Manchester Santiago, 16 January 2015 13

 Let’s have a deeper look at gas plant

 Wind integration scenarios:

 Nuclear capacity (GW): 8
 Wind capacity (GW): 0 - 40
 Solar capacity (GW): 10

 Solar integration scenarios

 Nuclear capacity (GW): 8
 Wind capacity (GW): 20
 Solar capacity (GW): 0 - 40

© 2015 P. Mancarella - The University of Manchester Santiago, 16 January 2015 14

 Gas plant utilization
Wind scenarios Solar scenarios

CCGT

OCGT

© 2015 P. Mancarella - The University of Manchester Santiago, 16 January 2015 15

 The “duck curve”

© 2015 P. Mancarella - The University of Manchester Santiago, 16 January 2015 16

 The UK “duck curve” (solar scenarios)

overgeneration

© 2015 P. Mancarella - The University of Manchester Santiago, 16 January 2015 17

 CCGT output in duck scenarios

© 2015 P. Mancarella - The University of Manchester Santiago, 16 January 2015 18

 Renewables and the gas network:
Transfer of variability

 Gas networks require gas to be transported for many hours

from sources to power stations
 Delay between implementation and effect of reconfiguration of
the gas network’s operation (e.g., additional supplies, storage
withdrawal, compressor station usage, etc.)
 System “linepack” is required to allow for unpredicted changes
in demand
 The effect of intermittent generation on CCGTs is becoming
dominant source of UK gas network demand uncertainty

© 2015 P. Mancarella - The University of Manchester Santiago, 16 January 2015 19

 A view on the
energy infrastructure

GB Electrical Network GB Gas Network

Gas Fuelled Power Stations

© 2015 P. Mancarella - The University of Manchester Santiago, 16 January 2015 20
 Example of monthly renewables

National Grid’s 2030 Gone Green Scenario: Wind 47.5 GW, PV 15.6 GW

© 2015 P. Mancarella - The University of Manchester Santiago, 16 January 2015 21

 A closer look…

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Case Study: Impact of renewables on gas network –
Effect on CCGT generation

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 Effect on linepack on gas network

© 2015 P. Mancarella - The University of Manchester Santiago, 16 January 2015 24

 But… it’s not only about electricity

© 2015 P. Mancarella - The University of Manchester Santiago, 16 January 2015 25

 Current UK heat demand

37% of UK CO2 emissions arise from the heating sector

© 2015 P. Mancarella - The University of Manchester Santiago, 16 January 2015 26
 Electrification:
the magnitude of the problem…

© 2015 P. Mancarella - The University of Manchester Santiago, 16 January 2015 27

 How do we optimally integrate all energy sectors?

 Current wind capacity in

UK is around 12 GW
 During December 2013
there was 1.1GWh of
curtailed wind for which
wind farms were
compensated
 By 2030 there will be
~50GW of installed
wind.
Wind curtailment is caused by the
 At 2030 generation inflexibility of electrical network:
levels, modelling reserve requirements, ramp rates,
predicts >6 TWh of minimal stable generation levels,
curtailment minimum up times

© 2015 P. Mancarella - The University of Manchester Santiago, 16 January 2015 28

 Let’s store wind in the gas network

 Limits on hydrogen in gas network

– Up to 17% vol. (5.7% by energy content) is technologically
feasible without changes in infrastructure
– Current highest limit in Europe is The Netherlands with has a 12%
vol.

Maximum gas network H2 injection capacity (GW)

Winter Winter Summer Summer
Peak Peak
At 7.8GW 10.9GW 4.0GW 3.7GW
17%vol.
At 3% 1.4GW 1.9GW 0.7GW 0.6GW
vol.

© 2015 P. Mancarella - The University of Manchester Santiago, 16 January 2015 29

 Integrated electricity-heat-gas network modelling
Curtailed Form hydrogen or
OPF renewable synthetic natural gas
generation
Use as low grade fuel Use natural gas network
for heating or as means to store and
electrical generation transport gas

Electrical network model – 29 buses Gas network model – 71 buses

© 2015 P. Mancarella - The University of Manchester Santiago, 16 January 2015 30
 What role for gas generation?
The CCGT as a high-efficiency multi-product
flexible plant (electricity, heat, CO2)

Steam
Turbine
From Power
Gas HRSG
Turbine
CO2
CCS
Heat
To Gas Turbine

methanation
CH4 CO2

H2
Solar electricity

© 2015 P. Mancarella - The University of Manchester Santiago, 16 January 2015 31

 Back to the future...

1878: “We will make electricity so cheap that only the rich will burn candles”
1882: Edison switched on his Pearl Street electrical power distribution
system, which provided 110 volts DC to 59 customers in lower Manhattan

© 2015 P. Mancarella - The University of Manchester Santiago, 16 January 2015 32

 Concluding remarks

 It is likely we’ll keep needing gas (balancing)

 Renewables highly impact on gas plant operation
 Electrical variability transferred to the gas network
 With so much renewable potential, we could store
electricity into the gas network
– Fuel price risk hedging
– Optimal infrastructure utilization
 There is hidden flexibility in gas plant when you look
beyond electricity
 The physical system of the future will be more and more
integrated
– So will the technical, commercial and regulatory system
have to be too
– Integration rather than competition
© 2015 P. Mancarella - The University of Manchester Santiago, 16 January 2015 33
 Thank you!
Any Questions?

p.mancarella@manchester.ac.uk
© 2015 P. Mancarella - The University of Manchester Santiago, 16 January 2015 34
 Integrated electricity and
gas network analysis:
Challenges and opportunities in
low carbon energy systems

Dr Pierluigi Mancarella
Reader in Future Energy Networks
The University of Manchester (former UMIST)
p.mancarella@manchester.ac.uk

Santiago, Chile, 16 January 2015

© 2015 P. Mancarella - The University of Manchester Santiago, 16 January 2015 35

 Power-to-gas efficiencies

 Efficiency of hydrogen production = 73%

 Efficiency of SNG production = 64%

Quantity of otherwise unutilized wind energy consequently

injected into gas network (GW)
Winter Winter Peak Summer Summer
Peak
At 10.7GW 14.7GW 5.5GW 5.1GW
17%vol.
At 3% 1.8GW 2.6GW 1.1GW 0.9GW
vol.

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