Population Growth:

Past, Present, and Future

A large por*on of this informa*on
was prepared and offered by
Rebecca Tippe: in a public forum.
Urbanization the redistribution of populations from
rural (farming or country life) to urban (town and city) life.
Urbanization in America saw the emergence of many new towns
and cities which became even larger as more and more people,
attracted by employment possibilities, begin living and working in
towns and cities.
Many of us grew up here, and raised families in Kinston / Lenoir County. We all love our
community, and want to see it prosper in the future. In order to effec*vely prepare for
the future, we need to understand our past, and present.

Addi*onally, our community should have reasonable expecta*ons when defining
“prosperity.” We must be informed of the reali*es faced by our en*re state, as well as our
immediate surroundings.


 North Carolina is experiencing
“Urbanization” In 1980, less than 31% of North
Carolina’s population lived in mid-
size towns or larger cities: 14.5%
lived in cities with 75,000 residents
or more and 16% lived in towns
with populations between 10,000
and 74,999 residents. This was
equivalent to just over half of the
proportion of residents living
outside of municipalities (56.9%).

Between 1980 and 2010, the share

of individuals living in larger cities
nearly doubled, rising to 28%. This
reflects continued growth in the
state’s largest cities—including
Charlotte, Raleigh, Durham,
Greensboro, and Winston-Salem—
as well as population growth that
pushed previously mid-size cities
into the larger city category.
Between 2000 and 2010, three
cities grew enough to pass the
75,000 person threshold: Asheville,
Concord, and Greenville.
h:p://demography.cpc.unc.edu/2016/03/10/nc-in-
focus-shiQing-from-small-towns-to-larger-ci*es/
“Nearly half of the state’s growth since 2010
occurred in 2 counties: Wake and Mecklenburg.

As an increasing number of North Carolina

counties experience slowed population growth
and population declines, Wake and Mecklenburg
have gained a larger share of overall state
population growth. Between 2010 and 2015,
Wake gained more than 123,000 new residents
and Mecklenburg grew by nearly 114,500.
Combined, this represents nearly 238,000
people, or 47% of the state’s population growth
since 2010.”

The 2015 data release indicated about half of the

state’s counties lost population.
This is not only Kinston / Lenoir County….This is a
systemic “macro” issue for our entire state.
 The State of North Carolina projected the current
declines, and they forecast additional future declines.
https://www.osbm.nc.gov/demog/county-projections

https://ncosbm.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/demog/20202030growthmig.pdf
 Metro / Urban areas like Raleigh, Charlotte,
Wilmington will continue to grow.
https://www.osbm.nc.gov/demog/county-projections

https://ncosbm.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/demog/20302036growthmig.pdf
 The State of North Carolina
predicted Lenoir County would
con7nue to lose popula7on,
based upon historical data,
and statewide trends.

The State projected the
popula7on of Lenoir County
would decrease to 57,378 in
July of 2030.

In April of 2017, the Census
Bureau reported the
Popula7on of Lenoir County to
be 57,307.

Lenoir County is 15 years
ahead of popula7on loss
es7mates* published by the
state of North Carolina…and
we did it in one year.

*Source:
https://www.osbm.nc.gov/demog/county-projections
 Kinston and Lenoir County Population Trends

The spike in the 1950s – 1960s was the impact of DuPont.

Source: US Decennial Census and US Census.

 State Estimates

E s timates P rojec tions

C ounty J uly 2010 J uly 2011 J uly 2012 J uly 2013 J uly 2014 J uly 2015 J uly 2016 J uly 2017 J uly 2018 J uly 2019
L enoir 59,451 59,353 59,362 58,977 58,697 58,338 58,273 58,209 58,145 58,079
# C hang e -98 9 -385 -280 -359 -65 -64 -64 -66
% C hang e -0.2% 0.0% -0.6% -0.5% -0.6% -0.1% -0.1% -0.1% -0.1%

S TATE 9,574,408 9,665,990 9,761,479 9,856,664 9,951,630 10,056,683 10,158,475 10,264,353 10,370,651 10,477,399

L enoir C ounty P opulation Data

C ounty J uly 2010 J uly 2015 J uly 2020 J uly 2025 J uly 2030 J uly 2035 J uly 2036
L enoir C ounty 59,451 58,338 58,017 57,696 57,378 57,056 56,991
# C hang e (1,113) (321) (321) (318) (322) (65)
% C hang e -1.9% -0.6% -0.6% -0.6% -0.6% -0.1%

S TATE 9,574,408 10,056,683 10,584,376 11,116,784 11,643,181 12,167,836 12,272,264

Our County Popula*on has

already decreased to the
2030 projec*on level.

https://www.osbm.nc.gov/demog/county-projections

https://ncosbm.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/demog/
countygrowth_2036.html
Top Five Counties for Population Loss in 2016

1. Robeson -1,057
2. Lenoir -734
3. Halifax -557
4. Bladen -525
5. Edgecombe -513

Source: h:p://demography.cpc.unc.edu/resources/data-tables/
 Lenoir County

Kinston has not experienced a decade of

SUSTAINED net population growth since
1960. Our city lost 17% of its population Kinston
from 2000 – 2016.
21%
32%
Increase
 Projections
“The Future”
 Workforce
Information
 Prime Working Age to Population Ratio
Effective % of Population
Population Age 16 - 64 Employed Employment Employed
Two measures of “effective 2012 58,249 35,287 24,280 68.8% 41.7%
2015 58,106 34,410 23,972 69.7% 41.3%
employment” measures the
prime working age against
the number who are
employed. This eliminates
the shortfalls of traditional
“Unemployment” measures.

One measurement is from

18-64 and the other is 16-64.

Regardless of the
measurement, the raw
numbers and percentages
are decreasing.

The average for the state of

North Carolina is about 77%,
which is on par with the
national average.
 Live in Lenoir County, work elsewhere

1990 2000 2010

Wayne 945 1183 1711
Pitt 1059 1420 1290
Greene 390 449 unavailable
Duplin 294 309 497
Craven 302 465 587
Pitt County has the highest growth rate of
any neighboring county, however we have
fewer people living in Lenoir and commuting Work in Lenoir County, live elsewhere
to Pitt than we did in 2000.
1990 2000 2010
Ptt 1,698 1,872 1,526
Additionally, we have fewer people working Wayne 1,260 1,247 1,577
in Lenoir, and living in Pitt than we did in Greene 1,212 1,410 1,570
1990. Craven 688 877 674
Duplin 877 1,041 806
These numbers do not support local
theories. Our net has improved over Pitt
County in the last three decades. Total Jobs Available
1990 21,776 29,032 75.0%
2000 20,067 28,450 70.5%
We had more people commute to Wayne
2010 18,167 26,211 69.3%
County to work in the 2010 Census as
compared to Pitt County.
Jobs held Total jobs % of jobs
by those reported as held by
in county. available residents
Real Estate
“Our property values will rebound in a few years”

Actually, they likely will not without an unforeseen

catalyst.

1. Finite Resource
2. Law of Supply and Demand
3. Real Estate is driven by local forces
Population Projections Description
Introduction
The current set of population projections for the state and its counties was released by the North Carolina Office of State Budget and
Management in October of 2016 and updates the release of September 2015. State and county total population projections are made using
times series trends (exponential smoothing and ARIMA models). Like the previous model, this model considers both the trend growth of
1990-2010, the annual non-institutional growth from July 1, 2010 through July 1, 2015 derived from the set of July 2000-2009 Smoothed
County estimates (intercensal estimates), the July 1, 2010-2014 revised population estimates, as well as the 2000 and 2010 Censuses. For
the current set of projections, the assumption is that migration (and, hence, growth) for July 1, 2016 through July 1, 2036 is also a function
of the "trend" growth based on the 1990-2010 base decades, and the average annual non-institutional growth through July 1, 2015 derived
from the set of July 2015 County Estimates.For the current set of projections, an exponential smoothing or ARIMA model was selected that
most accurately projected the 2010 Census and subsequent (2010-2015) county estimates while maintaining a low MAPE for each county
using 1990-2015 data, and the county totals were summed to obtain projections for the entire state.
Basic Data
The most fundamental basis for these projections are population values for North Carolina and its counties from the Census Bureau's 2010
Census of Population. Since the last projection series, there have been a few minor corrections based on Census Bureau boundary
changes. There was also a significant change of group quarters population from Granville County to Durham County which was the result of
a Census CQR correction.
Methodology
These projections use single year of age totals (0-99) and one composite age group (100+) by male and female from the 2010 Census for
the data for the 2nd year of the base decade. The Census Bureau's modified race and sex file for North Carolina was used to assign the
race categories for the 2010 base.
The "aging forward" of this 2010 population base strongly affects these age, race, and sex specific projections. This effect causes projected
births to rise more slowly than projected population, in spite of fertility rates, which are assumed to remain constant. It also causes projected
deaths to increase more rapidly.
Population values for North Carolina and its counties from the Census Bureau's 2000 Census of Population are very important as well. The
actual data came from the Census Bureau's MARS (Modified Age, Race, and Sex) file. The most critical use of these values is in the
determination of detailed migration trends for the 2000-2010 time period.
Birth Assumptions
Since the early 1990s, North Carolina's fertility rates have changed significantly. In recent years the fertility rate declined significantly with
the Recession, and has now leveled off or increased slightly. It was assumed that fertility rates for all age and race groups would be
constant from 2015 through 2036. To obtain a more stable set of future rates, the fertility rates for 2013, the fertility rates for 2014, and the
fertility rates for 2015 were averaged. Rates for each county are adjusted based on actual versus expected births.
The distribution of births into male and female for each race group was also assumed to be constant from 2015 through the year 2036.
The fraction of the projected births for each age group which was male (or female) was assumed to be the average of the corresponding
fractions for the calendar years 2005 through 2015.

https://www.osbm.nc.gov/demog/county-projections-methodology
Death Assumptions
These projections use a 2010 unabridged life table for North Carolina developed by this office.
Survival rates are adjusted for actual deaths from 2010-2015.
Basic Trend Projections by County
The basic technique used to develop county age, race, and sex projections for this series is an Adjusted Migration technique. First, county/
state survival rate factors for each county for each race and sex are developed using actual county deaths by race and sex from 2010-2015
These factors are assumed to be reasonably valid throughout the projection period. Then, one obtains a "Cohort Survived" population
(assumes no net migration) for each year by applying these factors and state survival rates to the population at the beginning of the year.
Finally, one subtracts this "Cohort Survived" population from the population at the end of the year to get the desired survived net migration.
The next step is to adjust this survived net migration for age. The survived net migration for each county for each year for each sex, race
and age category is determined by migration trends from the 2000-2010 decade.
Then, the survived net migration for the projection decade is added to this "Cohort Survived" population to yield the final projected
population by age.
Institutional Effects
The basic county trend projections produced for this series were modified for the growth of certain institutions. Institutions such as colleges,
universities, military installations, and, to a lesser extent, prisons and some state hospitals, house persons of particular age groups. These
populations will substantially grow or decline only by administrative action. There are twelve counties in North Carolina the age structure of
which is significantly affected by institutions. These counties (with major institution type) are Avery (prisons and college), Craven (military),
Cumberland (military), Durham (university), Jackson (university), Madison (university), New Hanover (university), Onslow (military), Orange
(university), Pasquotank (university and prisons), Pitt (university), and Watauga (university).
Many counties have experienced some growth (and in some cases decline) in institutional populations between 2010 and 2015. It was
assumed that all institutional populations would remain constant after 2015.
Projection Controls
Three types of Projection controls were used. The first set was based totally on county estimates. Projected values for July 2010-July 2014,
and July 2015 were controlled to revised county estimates for the corresponding dates.
The second set were county population controls for July 1st of each year from 2016 through 2036. They were calculated using exponential
smoothing/ARIMA models for the non-group quarters population.
The third set of controls were on race/sex totals for each county. Race and sex totals were projected for each county based on historic
growth trends (2000-2010) with the total controlled to the projected county total population.
Last Update: October 14, 2016