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Balkrishna Industries Ltd. CMP: Rs.

244

Techno Fundamental Pick March 09, 2012

HDFC Sec Scrip ID Industry CMP Recommended Action Target Stop loss Time Horizon
Buy at 244 and add on
BALKINEQNR Tyres Rs 244 dips to 231 282 220 1-2 quarters

Company Background
Balkrishna Industries Limited (BIL) is a one of the premier Off Highway Tyres (OHT) manufacturers in the country. BIL is a part
of a well-known business conglomerate, Siyaram-Poddar group. The group has annual turnover of around Rs.35 bn. Of this,
BIL accounts for around 62% of the group turnover as of FY11. The company commenced the production of the OHT (cross
ply) tyres in 1995 and since than has been evolving through consistent research and development. BIL’s products primarily
cater to the requirement of the agricultural, construction, industrial; earthmover, ATV (All Terrain Vehicle) and turf care
applications. Currently the company has presence in over 100 countries and has a vision to attain a global leadership in the
OHT solutions industry.

Share holding Pattern:


As of December 2011, the promoters’ stake stands at 54.37%. The following table depicts the condensed share holding
pattern for the company:
Share Holding (%)
Category Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11
Indian Promoters 54.37 54.37 54.37 54.37 54.37
Institutional Non-Promoters 30.41 30.33 30.94 31.12 31.09
Non- Institutional Non-Promoters 15.22 15.3 14.69 14.51 14.54
Grand Total 100 100 100 100 100
(Source: Capital Line, HDFC Sec)

BIL is a widely held stock in the institutional category. Amongst the institutional shareholders Copa Cabana holds 9.6%, ICICI
Prudential discovery fund holds 2.17% while ICICI Prudential Dynamic plan holds 1.41% stake. HDFC Trustee Company is
one of the major shareholders in the company with 8.6% stake spread across three schemes.

Business and Operations:


BIL is a flagship company of the Siyaram-Poddar Group. It is leading tyre manufacturer from India focused on the off highway
tyres segment. The company has established its presence in this segment with over 1900 SKU (stock keeping unit) for
Agricultural, Industrial & Construction and Earthmoving applications. Each SKU corresponds to a different variety of tyres, so
the company manufactures 1900 different types of tyres for the above mentioned end user industries. BIL has an achievable
production capacity of 1,44,000 MTPA.

BIL is one of the largest OHT manufacturers in the country and also the only company in the country with a steel radial facility
for OTRs. BIL is a major exporter of OHTs to over 120 countries. Presently BIL derives ~88% (FY11) of its revenues from
exports. In the international markets, BIL caters to the demand from the replacement segment, OEM segment and also the
outsourcing requirement of global tyre giants like Michelin, Goodyear and Vredestine (Apollo Group Company). The company
has a wide spread dealer network in the domestic and the international markets. BIL has a total of 200+ distributors spread
across the globe. Of this 20 distributors cater to the domestic market while the balance operate in the international markets.
The following charts depict the geographical and segmental revenue split for the company:

Revenue Split - Segmental-FY11 Revenue Split - Geographical-FY11

6% 13%
14%
17% 47%

80% 23%

Distributors OEM Off-take Europe US Asia Rest of World

(Source: Company Reports, HDFC Sec)

Retail Research 1
BIL supplies OHT’s to the leading global tier manufacturers and this segment accounts for 6% of the FY11 revenue (shown as
off-take in the chart above).

As mentioned above the company can be categorized as a large variety – low volume player. In line with this the company as
around 1900 stock keeping units, wherein each stock-keeping unit represents one variety of tyre. Of these around 1100-1200
stock keeping units have a continuous demand while the balance are customized items and hence are manufactured as per
customers’ demand. Through a large variety of offerings, BIL caters to a wide set of industries with agricultural tyres being a
key contributor to the revenues. The following table depicts BIL’s segment wise product mix.

Agricultural Tyres OTR Tyres Other Tyres


(66% of FY11 sales) (29% of FY11 sales) (5% of FY11 sales)
Steering Wheel (Tractor) Forklift truck High Speed trailor
Implement & Trailer Skid Steer ATV
Flotation Excavator Lawn & Garden
Flotation Radials Compactor Golf Cart
Tractor Bias Backhoe Loader
Tractor Radial Earth Mover
(Source: Company Reports, HDFC Sec)

As is clear from the table above, BIL derives a major chunk of its revenues from the agricultural sector. This had probably
insulated the company to a certain extent from the adverse impact of the global recession and adverse economic factors in the
previous financial year. In the developed nations like the US and the Europe the farmer population is on a decline while the
size of the farms is increasing thereby necessitating usage of Tractors and other agriculture related applications. This coupled
with the increasing need for productivity improvements could entail the use of sophisticated applications for agricultural
purpose, which could consequently boost the demand for OHT.

BIL has its manufacturing base in India and operates through three manufacturing plants and a mould shop in India. The
company’s plants are located at Aurangabad (Maharashtra), Bhiwadi (Rajasthan) and Chopankhi (Rajasthan) and a mould
shop at Dombivli (near Mumbai). The following table depicts the plantwise installed capacity:

Particulars Aurangabad Bhiwadi Chopankhi


Installed capacity (MT) 40,000 60,000 60,000
Products manufactured OHT-Cross Ply OHT-Cross Ply OHT-Cross Ply
OHT-Steel Radials
(Source: Company Reports, HDFC Sec)

As radialisation is gaining momentum in all other segments of the tyre industry, so is the case with the OHT segment. In order
to capitalize on this structural shift, BIL has recently introduced OHT steel radials. BIL is one of the leading companies across
the globe to manufacture steel radial tyre for mining equipments and hence enjoys a close to monopolistic situation in the
mining equipment tyres. BIL makes OHT steel radials at its Chopankhi plant and has an installed capacity of 15000 MT
towards the same. The balance 45000 MT capacity at the Chopankhi plant is utilized for manufacturing cross ply tyres.

The key raw materials required by the company are natural rubber, synthetic rubber, tyre cord fabric, carbon black and other
chemicals. The following table depicts the break up of raw material cost for BIL:

Particulars (% of RM Cost) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11


Natural Rubber 43.8% 42.4% 41.8% 45.0%
Synthetic Rubber 12.9% 17.6% 14.5% 17.3%
Carbon Black 13.5% 13.1% 15.2% 13.6%
Tyre Cord 13.5% 13.8% 14.1% 11.2%
Other Chemicals 16.3% 13.1% 14.5% 12.9%
(Source: Company Reports, HDFC Sec)

One of the key components of the raw material mix is natural rubber. BIL imports a major chunk of its raw material
requirements. However BIL has the flexibility to substitute natural rubber with synthetic rubber to a certain extent. Synthetic
rubber accounts for ~17% of the total raw material cost. This is on a higher side as compared to normal commercial vehicle
tyre. Furthermore synthetic rubber is cheaper than the natural rubber. This augurs well for the company as higher use of
synthetic rubber translates into better operating margins for the company.

Retail Research 2
Subsidiary Operations:
BIL has four subsidiaries viz, Balkrishna Paper Mills Limited (100%), Balkrishna Synthetics Limited (100%), BKT Tyres Limited
(80%), BKT Exim Limited (100%). Through BKT EXIM, BIL has control over other subsidiary companies like BKT (EUROPE)
Ltd, BKT EUROPE S.R.L. and BKT (USA) INC. Balkrishna Paper Mills Ltd and Balkrishna Synthetics Limited represent the
erstwhile paper and textile business of BIL. As per a plan of restructuring of BIL the company had hived-off the paper and the
textile operations into two different subsidiaries as mentioned above. This enabled the company to focus on the core tyre
business. Collectively all the subsidiaries account for ~9% of FY11 consolidated sales while contribute ~4.5% at the operating
and the bottom line.

Investment Rationale:
 Presence in the niche segment with high entry barriers.
The company manufactures Off Highway Tyres (OHT) for agricultural, industrial and certain other specialty applications. The
industry is highly concentrated with top few players contributing 50-55% of the market. The OHT tyres are designed to suit
particular vehicle specification in each of the segments, thus making it more of a customized product. This entails an
additional cost, as the company is required to make a new mould for every new type of tyre it makes. The additional cost for
making the moulds makes the business a capital intensive one, which acts as an entry barrier for other players. Therefore
low volume coupled with high customization requirements makes OHT a niche segment. Over the years, BIL has developed
over 1900 SKUs to offer a wide range of products. The company constantly rolls out new products/sizes every year based
on the customers’ requirements. Since revenues are primarily being driven by replacement demand, the company has
established a robust distribution network across the globe. BIL currently has 200+ dealers spread across 120 countries
worldwide of which 20 operate in India. Collectively, competency in the above areas has made BIL a player in the niche
segment. With a market share of 4% globally, BKT is one of the leading global OHT manufacturers world over. The following
chart depicts the sales volumes and realization trend for the past five years:

Sale s - Re alizations
3,000 9,000
8,000
2,500
7,000

2,000 6,000
Nos-000's

5,000

Rs
1,500
4,000
1,000 3,000

2,000
500
1,000

- -
FY07 FY08 FY09 FY 10 FY 11

Sales (Nos)-LHS Realization (per tyre)-RHS

 Established Brand and Competitive landscape to drive the growth ahead.


Major portion of the revenues of the company are derived from the exports markets. BKT has been steadily expanding its
presence in the export markets, which is evident from the rising share of exports in the total revenues of the company. The
following chart depicts the trends in the exports and Exports as a % of sales:

Exports as a % of Sale s
20 100%
18
16 90%
14
12 80%
Rs bn

10
8 70%
6
4 60%
2
0 50%
FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11

Exports ( Rs mn) Exports (% of sales)

(Source: Company Reports, HDFC Sec)

Retail Research 3
BILs exports have consistently grown over the past four years from a level of 75% in FY07 to 88% in FY11. BIL’s exports
have registered a CAGR of 27.6% between FY07 and FY11. This is considered to be a strong growth in the light of a global
recession during FY09. Another reason for the high growth in exports is the aggressive pricing strategy adopted by the
company. Owing to the benefits of a low cost manufacturing destination (India), BIL is able to price its products lower by ~
25%-30% as compared to its international peers. These key factors have enabled the company to corner a market share of
4% of the global OHT market till date and going forward it is looking to expand its share in the industry. The company is
consciously looking to expand its presence in the international markets. BIL is present in over 120 countries worldwide and it
is further evaluating to increase its global presence.

BIL in the recent past has strengthened its brand visibility in most of the exports markets it is present in. This can be judged
from the fact that the company sells around 94% (FY11) of its products under its own brand name “BKT” (also Tractor
Radial Tires under brand “Agrimax” and Steel Radial OTR tire under brand “ Earthmax) and derives ~6% of its sales by
catering to the outsourcing requirements of major global giants like Michelin, Goodyear and Vredestein. (An Apollo Tyres
group company) The fact that global majors like Michelin, Goodyear source their OHT requirement from BIL and a higher
share of exports (~70% for FY11) to the US and Europe (including to leading OEMs like Volvo, John Deere, CNH, Class,
Bomag, SAME, Ferrari, JCB) which is a highly quality conscious market is testimony of the fact that the company is capable
of delivering high quality products.

 Expansion plans to enhance revenue visibility going ahead:


BIL has lined up a massive capex of Rs 18.0 bn over the next 2-3 years. This is towards setting up of a new Greenfield plant
at Bhuj near Gujarat (Bhuj being near the Mundra Port would reduce the logistics cost for the company as it exports a major
chunk of its production). The new plant would have an installed capacity of 1,20,000 MTPA for OHT and a co-generation
plant with a capacity to generate 20 MW of power. Around 40% of the capacity of the Bhuj plant will be towards
manufacturing of radial tyres. As radial tyres yield higher margins, the higher share of radial tyres at the new plant could
inflate the operating margins for the company in future.

The co-generation plant would attract an investment of Rs 1 bn, which is included in the Rs 18.0 bn capex. The new plant is
expected to go on stream in Q2FY13 and Q3FY14 and would manufacture all the variety of tyres that the company offers.
BIL has already incurred a capex of Rs 400 cr till Dec 2011 towards the Bhuj plant, while it intends to invest the balance Rs
over FY12, FY13 and FY14 respectively. A sum of $175 mn has already been drawn by way of ECB while another $100 mn
is being tied up by way of ECB. The rest Rs.500 cr will come out of internal accruals. The plant wise capacity break up is
depicted in the table below:
Plants Capacity (MT)
Existing Plants:
Waluj 40,000
Bhiwadi 60,000
Chopankhi 60,000
Sub Total 160,000
Add: De-bottlenecking (H1FY12) 32,000
Total Capacity available 192,000
Achievable production-75% Utilization (a) 144,000

Bhuj Green Field Expansion:


Add: Bhuj Greenfield expansion 120,000
Achievable production-75% Utilization (b) 90,000

Total Achievable production in FY14 (a+b) 231,000

In addition, another 45,000 tonnes of achievable production could get added in FY15. During FY11 the company incurred Rs
1310 mn capex towards a new warehouse for storing the raw materials and the finished goods. In addition to this, BIL has
also incurred Rs 550 mn capex towards de-bottlenecking of all the three plants for H1FY12. This has resulted in adding up
to 32000 MT of capacity. Therefore the initially incurred capex towards the OTR steel capacity would enable the company to
gain a foothold in the high margin OTR steel radial space. Going ahead the green field capacity coupled with investments in
the warehouses would enable the company to cater to the incremental demand from its customers.

 Strong financials amongst its domestic peers:


BIL has superior financials as compared to its peers like Goodyear India.

Particulars (Rs mn) FY11


Sales Sales Growth (%) OPM (%) NPM (%) ROCE (%) RONW (%) D/E
BIL 21,920.90 40.2 16.8 8.9 15.2 22.6 0.72
Goodyear# 12,972.30 27.8 8.7 5.8 36.8 27.4 0
(# CY10) (Source: Company Reports, HDFC Sec)

Retail Research 4
As is clear from the table above BIL clearly scores above its peers in terms of overall financial performance. The operating
margins for the company are towards the higher side in the industry. This is because the nature of the business that BIL is in
to i.e. manufacturing of OHT. OHT is a niche segment and the company has the pricing power and also has the flexibility to
substitute natural rubber with synthetic rubber (to a certain extent only), which enhances the operating margins for the
company. In addition to this the D/E ratio of 0.72 as of FY11 is also on the lower side as compared to most of the industry
players. The following chart depicts the Debt – equity ratio for the past five years:

De bt - Equity

7000 1.40

6000 1.20

5000 1.00
Debt Rs mn

4000 0.80

x
3000 0.60

2000 0.40

1000 0.20

0 0.00
FY07 FY08 FY09 FY 10 FY 11
Debt (Rs mn) - LHS D/E ratio - RHS

BIL has successfully controlled its debt – equity ratio in the past two years. The D/E ratio dropped to 0.7x in FY10 from a
level of 1x as of FY09. While the D/E ratio could rise going forward due to the big capex plan it could still be under 1.2-1.3,
the highest reached in the past few years.

Risks & Concerns:


 Over exposure to the overseas markets:
BIL derives around 10% of its revenues from the domestic markets while the balance is from exports to primarily Europe and
US. Both the above areas were the most impacted nations during the global turmoil in the recent past. However Europe had
to confront the impact of the debt crisis from which it has still not fully recovered. On the other hand the domestic markets
have almost fully recovered and also offer better growth visibility as against the developed nations. Though the European
markets are slowly coming out of the crisis, we feel that BIL’s performance could be severely dented in case Europe
continues to remain in the crisis mode in the near future.

 Forex Exposure:
BIL is a major exporter of OHT. The company primarily exports to European region (47% of exports in FY11) followed by the
US (23%). Exports to Europe has come down from 64% in FY06. BIL also exports in small proportion to several other
countries and imports around 66% of its raw material requirements. The raw material imports partly provide a natural hedge
against the impact of currency fluctuations. The company enters into plain forward contracts for the balance exposure to be
covered.

BIL also has plans to raise ECB amounting to USD 275 mn in the near future for funding its expansion plans, primarily the
Bhuj Greenfield project. Despite the preventive measures taken by the company, we feel that the company could be
impacted in case of adverse movements in the foreign currencies.

 Raw Material Price Fluctuations:


Natural rubber is one of the major constituents of the raw material cost of a tyre. Natural rubber accounts for 45% (FY11) of
the total raw material cost of a tyre. Hence any fluctuation in the natural rubber prices could cause a substantial impact on
the operating performance of the company. On an average BIL maintains three months of natural rubber inventory and at
times the inventory period extends to six months. Though the rubber prices have cooled down in the recent past, we feel
that high natural prices could dent the operating margins of the company. Hence there is a possibility of a contraction in the
operating margins in case the natural rubber prices begin to rise again.

 Persistent slowdown in the end user industries


OHT tyres derive their demand from the Mining, construction, agricultural and other industrial equipments. This is dependent
on the economic situation to a certain extent and can be linked to the GDP growth. Therefore any slow down in the
economic activities would also have its cascading impact on the off-take of the company as well. In the recent past the
European region witnessed the effects of the debt crisis and still is recovering from the same. In case of a slow down in the
recovery, the demand for OHT could be dented, which could impact the overall performance of the company.

Retail Research 5
 Labour Relations:
Since the nature of Company’s manufacturing process is that of batch processing, it requires lot of skilled as well as un-
skilled workers. Maintaining a huge work force is a big challenge.

 Rising Debt equity ratio:


BIL has been borrowing more in recent times to fund its capex plans and working capital requirements. In a downturn, it
could be difficult to service the growing debt.

Conclusion:
BIL is one of the leading OHT manufacturers in the world. The company is a major exporter of OHT from India. Exports
account for ~88% of FY11 sales of the company. BIL primarily exports to the European region and the US. It also exports
small quantities to other countries. BIL as mentioned above is a Large Variety Low Volume player. The company has a strong
and competent in house research and development centre, which is constantly involved in developing new designs and sizes
of either existing tyres or designing of new tyres. BIL’s core competency lies in developing these new designs in-house, which
enables it to remain competitive in the international markets. The fact that the company caters to the outsourcing requirements
of the global tyre giants like Michelin and Vredestine coupled with its consistent higher share of exports to the quality
conscious European markets further shows its capabilities and the higher quality of the product supplied by BIL. Currently the
company manufacturers 1900 different types of tyres (stock keeping units) and of this 1100-1200 are in continuous supply.
Furthermore the European markets though currently are in the midst of a spiralling debt crisis, there are continuous efforts by
the Euro zone leaders to pull out of the debt crisis, which could fructify in the near future. Also the company is in the process to
set up new green field facility at Bhuj to manufacture OHT with an installed capacity of 120,000 MTPA, which is likely to go on-
stream by FY13. Once operational the new capacities could boost the top line of the company. In addition to this the company
has a wide spread distributor network of 200 distributors spread across the globe.

Natural Rubber is one of the key components required for manufacturing tyre. Natural rubber accounts for ~45% of the total
raw material cost and hence any sharp fluctuation in the natural rubber prices has an impact on the operating margins of the
company. As the company is a net exporter, the imports of raw material provide a natural hedge to the company against any
fluctuation in the currency movement. In addition to this the company has installed captive windmills at Rajasthan, which
generated 5,493,784 KWH of power as of FY11. The power generated through the windmills is used captively and this further
reduces the cost of operations for BIL. Therefore BIL enjoys benefits of a low cost manufacturing destination as against its
global peers. This enables it to price its products lower than its competitors.

In FY12, BIL has guided for a production of 1.3-1.35 lac tonnes (vs 1.115 lac tonnes in FY11). It will in future also focus on
growing infrastructure spend based opportunities in India in addition to exports. BIL could also show consistent growth in
volumes aided by debottlenecking / addition of capacities over the next few years.

At the CMP the stock trades at 7.8x its FY13E EPS. Based on the above we feel that the stock could be bought at the CMP of
Rs.244 and added on dips to Rs.231 (7.8-7.4x FY13E EPS) for a target of 282 (9x FY13E EPS) over the next 1-2 quarters.

Quarterly Financials (Standalone)


Particulars (Rs mn) Q3 FY12 Q3 FY11 % YoY Q2 FY12 % Q-o-Q 9M FY12 9MFY11 % Y-o-Y
Net Sales 7,570.8 4,929.3 53.6 6,753.2 12.1 20,138.3 14,230.4 41.5
Total Income 7,590.6 4,964.6 52.9 6,783.5 11.9 20,220.1 14,302.7 41.4
Operating Expense 6,255.9 4,098.6 52.6 5,596.3 11.8 16,636.0 11,583.3 43.6
EBITDA (Including OI) 1,334.7 866.0 54.1 1,187.2 12.4 3,584.1 2,719.4 31.8
EBITDA (Excluding OI) 1,331.8 851.4 56.4 1,185.9 12.3 3,578.3 2,689.2 33.1
Depreciation 208.9 189.8 10.1 205.2 1.8 613.2 555.2 10.4
Interest 46.8 110.4 -57.6 45.4 3.1 125.2 176.9 -29.2
PBT 1,079.0 565.8 90.7 936.6 15.2 2,845.7 1,987.3 43.2
Tax 350.2 183.7 90.6 303.9 15.2 923.1 651.2 41.8
PAT 728.8 382.1 90.7 632.7 15.2 1,922.6 1,336.1 43.9
EPS 7.54 3.95 90.7 6.55 15.2 19.9 13.8 43.9
OPM (%) 17.6% 17.2% 17.5% 17.7% 18.8%
NPM (%) 9.6% 7.8% 9.4% 9.5% 9.4%

Quick Financials: (Standalone)


Particulars (Rs mn) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E
Net Sales 9,913.8 12,523.3 13,869.6 19,969.4 26,850.0 32,900.0
EBITDA 2,173.6 1,969.8 3,697.7 3,543.1 4,915.0 5,889.0
PAT 1,068.3 699.4 2,065.3 1,856.2 2,541.7 3,026.7
EPS 11.05 7.24 21.37 19.20 26.30 31.32

Retail Research 6
P/E 22.1 33.7 11.4 12.7 9.3 7.8
OPM (%) 21.9% 15.7% 26.7% 17.7% 18.3% 17.9%
NPM (%) 10.8% 5.6% 14.9% 9.3% 9.5% 9.2%

1 Yr Fwd P/E chart:

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Technical View:

Balkrishna Industries has been consistently making higher bottoms and higher tops since March 2009. The recent correction in
Nov-Dec 2011 however saw the stock correcting from the intermediate highs of 189.8 and moving below the previous
intermediate bottoms of 165, thereby entering into an intermediate downtrend.

This intermediate downtrend found support around the 146 levels, which also coincides with the 200-day EMA.

The resumption in the uptrend was accompanied with a lot of momentum. As can be seen from the chart below, the stock rose
smartly in the month of January-February 2012 and was accompanied with a sharply rising 14-week RSI.

Retail Research 7
The momentum led to the stock taking out its previous intermediate highs of 189.8 and also moving above the 13-week and
50-day simple moving averages. The latest upmove from 172 to 261 has barely been retraced over 15 sessions and the stock
seems ready for another leg up.

With the stock now in a firm intermediate uptrend and the intermediate technical indicators giving positive signals, we believe
the stock is ready to continue the next leg of its underlying uptrend.

Our intermediate upside target is 282. Stop loss can be kept at the recent lows of 220. CMP is 244.

Analyst: Harshal Patil – Metals, Oil & Gas, Midcaps - harshal.patil@hdfcsec.com

RETAIL RESEARCH Fax: (022) 3075 3435


Corporate Office: HDFC Securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building –B, ”Alpha”, Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp.
Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042 Fax: (022) 30753435 Website: www.hdfcsec.com

Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by HDFC Securities Limited and is meant for sole use by the recipient and not for circulation.
This document is not to be reported or copied or made available to others. It should not be considered to be taken as an offer to sell or a
solicitation to buy any security. The information contained herein is from sources believed reliable. We do not represent that it is accurate or
complete and it should not be relied upon as such. We may have from time to time positions or options on, and buy and sell securities referred
to herein. We may from time to time solicit from, or perform investment banking, or other services for, any company mentioned in this
document. This report is intended for Retail Clients only and not for any other category of clients, including, but not limited to, Institutional
Clients

Retail Research 8

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