Beruflich Dokumente
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Aggregate Demand I
macroeconomics
fifth edition
N. Gregory Mankiw
PowerPoint ® Slides
by Ron Cronovich
© 2003 Worth Publishers, all rights reserved
In this chapter you will learn
§ the IS curve, and its relation to
– the Keynesian Cross
– the Loanable Funds model
§ the LM curve, and its relation to
– the Theory of Liquidity Preference
§ how the ISLM model determines income
and the interest rate in the short run when
P is fixed
1
Context
§ Chapter 9 introduced the model of aggregate
demand and aggregate supply.
§ Long run
– prices flexible
– output determined by factors of production &
technology
– unemployment equals its natural rate
§ Short run
– prices fixed
– output determined by aggregate demand
– unemployment is negatively related to output
CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 2
Context
§ This chapter develops the ISLM model,
the theory that yields the aggregate demand
curve.
§ We focus on the short run and assume the
price level is fixed.
§ This chapter (and chapter 11) focus on the
closedeconomy case. Chapter 12 presents
the openeconomy case.
2
The Keynesian Cross
§ A simple closed economy model in which
income is determined by expenditure.
(due to J.M. Keynes)
§ Notation:
I = planned investment
E = C + I + G = planned expenditure
Y = real GDP = actual expenditure
§ Difference between actual & planned
expenditure: unplanned inventory investment
Elements of the Keynesian Cross
consumption function: C = C (Y - T )
govt policy variables: G = G , T = T
for now, planned
investment is exogenous: I =I
planned expenditure: E = C (Y - T ) + I + G
Equilibrium condition:
Actual expenditure = Planned expenditure
Y = E
CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 5
3
Graphing planned expenditure
E
planned
expenditure
E =C +I +G
MPC
1
income, output, Y
Graphing the equilibrium condition
E
planned E =Y
expenditure
45º
income, output, Y
4
The equilibrium value of income
E
planned E =Y
expenditure
E =C +I +G
income, output, Y
Equilibrium
income
CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 8
An increase in government purchases
E Y
E
=
At Y 1 , E =C +I +G 2
there is now an
unplanned drop E =C +I +G 1
in inventory…
DG
…so firms
increase output,
and income Y
rises toward a
new equilibrium E 1 = Y 1 DY E 2 = Y 2
5
Solving for
Solving for DY
Y = C + I + G equilibrium condition
DY = DC + DI + DG in changes
= DC + DG because I exogenous
The government purchases multiplier
Definition: the increase in income resulting
from a $1 increase in G.
In this model, the govt purchases
multiplier equals DY 1
=
DG 1 - MPC
Example: If MPC = 0.8, then
DY 1 An increase in G
= = 5 causes income to
DG 1 - 0.8
increase by 5 times
as much!
CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 11
6
Why the multiplier is greater than 1
§ Initially, the increase in G causes an equal
increase in Y: DY = DG.
§ But -Y Þ -C
Þ further -Y
Þ further -C
Þ further -Y
§ So the final impact on income is much
bigger than the initial DG.
An increase in taxes
E Y
E
=
Initially, the tax
increase reduces
E =C 1 +I +G
consumption, and E =C 2 +I +G
therefore E:
7
Solving for
Solving for DY
eq’m condition in
DY = DC + DI + DG
changes
= DC I and G exogenous
= MPC ´ ( DY - DT )
Solving for DY : (1 - MPC) ´ DY = - MPC ´ DT
Final result:
æ - MPC ö
DY = ç ÷ ´ DT
è 1 - MPC ø
The Tax Multiplier
def: the change in income resulting from
a $1 increase in T :
DY - MPC
=
DT 1 - MPC
If MPC = 0.8, then the tax multiplier equals
DY - 0.8 - 0. 8
= = = - 4
DT 1 - 0.8 0. 2
8
The Tax Multiplier
…is negative:
A tax hike reduces
consumer spending,
which reduces income.
…is greater than one
(in absolute value):
A change in taxes has a
multiplier effect on income.
…is smaller than the govt spending multiplier:
Consumers save the fraction (1MPC) of a tax cut,
so the initial boost in spending from a tax cut is
smaller than from an equal increase in G.
CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 16
Exercise:
§ Use a graph of the Keynesian Cross
to show the impact of an increase in
planned investment on the equilibrium
level of income/output.
9
The IS curve
def: a graph of all combinations of r and Y
that result in goods market equilibrium,
i.e. actual expenditure (output)
= planned expenditure
The equation for the IS curve is:
Y = C (Y - T ) + I (r ) + G
Deriving the IS curve
curve
E E =Y E =C +I (r )+G
2
Þ -E DI
Þ -Y Y 1 Y 2 Y
r
r 1
r 2
IS
Y 1 Y 2 Y
10
Why the IS curve is negatively sloped
§ A fall in the interest rate motivates firms to
increase investment spending, which drives
up total planned spending (E ).
§ To restore equilibrium in the goods market,
output (a.k.a. actual expenditure, Y ) must
increase.
The IS curve and the
The IS curve and the Loanable
Loanable Funds model
Funds model
r S 2 S 1 r
r 2 r 2
r 1 r 1
I (r )
IS
S, I Y 2 Y 1 Y
11
Fiscal Policy and the IS curve
§ We can use the ISLM model to see
how fiscal policy (G and T ) can affect
aggregate demand and output.
§ Let’s start by using the Keynesian Cross
to see how fiscal policy shifts the IS
curve…
curve: DG
Shifting the IS curve:
E E =Y E =C +I (r )+G
At any value of r, 1 2
12
Exercise: Shifting the IS curve
§ Use the diagram of the Keynesian Cross
or Loanable Funds model to show how
an increase in taxes shifts the IS curve.
The Theory of Liquidity Preference
§ due to John Maynard Keynes.
§ A simple theory in which the interest rate
is determined by money supply and
money demand.
13
Money Supply
The supply of r
s
real money interest (M P )
rate
balances
is fixed:
s
(M P) =M P
M/P
M P real money
balances
Money Demand
Demand for r
s
real money interest (M P )
rate
balances:
d
(M P) = L (r )
L (r )
M/P
M P real money
balances
14
Equilibrium
The interest r
s
rate adjusts interest (M P )
rate
to equate the
supply and
demand for
money:
r 1
M P = L (r ) L (r )
M/P
M P real money
balances
How the Fed raises the interest rate
r
interest
rate
To increase r,
r 2
Fed reduces M
r 1
L (r )
M/P
M 2 M 1 real money
P P balances
15
CASE STUDY
Volcker’s Monetary Tightening
Volcker’s Monetary Tightening
§ Late 1970s: p > 10%
§ Oct 1979: Fed Chairman Paul Volcker
announced that monetary policy
would aim to reduce inflation.
§ Aug 1979April 1980:
Fed reduces M/P 8.0%
§ Jan 1983: p = 3.7%
How do you think this policy change
How do you think this policy change
would affect interest rates?
would affect interest rates?
would affect interest rates?
CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 30
Volcker’s Monetary Tightening,
Volcker’s Monetary Tightening, cont.
cont.
The effects of a monetary tightening
on nominal interest rates
short run long run
Quantity Theory,
Liquidity Preference
model Fisher Effect
(Keynesian)
(Classical)
prices sticky flexible
16
The LM curve
Now let’s put Y back into the money demand
function: d
(M P) = L (r ,Y )
The LM curve is a graph of all combinations of
r and Y that equate the supply and demand
for real money balances.
The equation for the LM curve is:
M P = L (r ,Y )
Deriving the LM curve
(a) The market for
(b) The LM curve
real money balances
r r
LM
r 2 r 2
L (r , Y 2 )
r 1 r 1
L (r , Y 1 )
M 1 M/P Y 1 Y 2 Y
P
17
Why the LM curve is upward
curve is upward sloping
§ An increase in income raises money
demand.
§ Since the supply of real balances is fixed,
there is now excess demand in the money
market at the initial interest rate.
§ The interest rate must rise to restore
equilibrium in the money market.
How DM
How M shifts the LM curve
(a) The market for
(b) The LM curve
real money balances
r r LM 2
LM 1
r 2 r 2
r 1 r 1
L (r , Y 1 )
18
Exercise: Shifting the LM curve
§ Suppose a wave of credit card fraud
causes consumers to use cash more
frequently in transactions.
§ Use the Liquidity Preference model
to show how these events shift the
LM curve.
The short
The short run equilibrium
The shortrun equilibrium is r
the combination of r and Y LM
that simultaneously satisfies
the equilibrium conditions in
the goods & money markets:
Y = C (Y - T ) + I (r ) + G IS
M P = L (r ,Y ) Y
Equilibrium
interest Equilibrium
rate level of
income
19
The Big Picture
Keynesian IS
Cross curve
ISLM
model Explanation
Theory of LM of shortrun
Liquidity curve fluctuations
Preference
Agg.
demand
curve Model of
Agg.
Demand
Agg.
and Agg.
supply
Supply
curve
Chapter summary
1. Keynesian Cross
§ basic model of income determination
§ takes fiscal policy & investment as exogenous
§ fiscal policy has a multiplier effect on income.
2. IS curve
§ comes from Keynesian Cross when planned
investment depends negatively on interest rate
§ shows all combinations of r and Y
that equate planned expenditure with
actual expenditure on goods & services
20
Chapter summary
3. Theory of Liquidity Preference
§ basic model of interest rate determination
§ takes money supply & price level as exogenous
§ an increase in the money supply lowers the
interest rate
4. LM curve
§ comes from Liquidity Preference Theory when
money demand depends positively on income
§ shows all combinations of r andY that equate
demand for real money balances with supply
Chapter summary
5. ISLM model
§ Intersection of IS and LM curves shows the
unique point (Y, r ) that satisfies equilibrium
in both the goods and money markets.
21
Preview of Chapter 11
In Chapter 11, we will
§ use the ISLM model to analyze the impact
of policies and shocks
§ learn how the aggregate demand curve
comes from ISLM
§ use the ISLM and ADAS models together
to analyze the shortrun and longrun
effects of shocks
§ use our models to learn about
the Great Depression
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