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The current level of violence in Sonora has not been as severe compared to the enormous rise of violence
in the other Mexican States of Chihuahua, Sinaloa, and Baja California. However, according to Mexican
open and official sources, the increase in murders and other violent incidents in Sonora during 2008
indicate that situation in Sonora is deteriorating and violence on both sides of the border will continue to
rise. This has created intense concern among Nogales’ citizens and caused the Mexican government to
deploy troops to the state to support local law enforcement. This deployment has also been seen as a
contributing factor to the rise of reported violence in Mexico. On the U.S. side of the border, increases in
the number of Border Patrol agents, National Guardsman, the new “virtual” border fence, and the Border
Patrol fixed and mobile checkpoints have all played a role in fortifying the border along the Arizona-
Mexico border. These efforts to secure the border with Sonora will likely become the catalyst for
increased aggression from Mexican criminal organizations towards law enforcement officers on this side
of the border. The larger deployment of Mexican military in Chihuahua combined with previous
deployments in Baja California, may force criminal organizations to focus on other routes. Sonora, with a
lesser military presence would be the natural choice in which to conduct increased smuggling operations.
If the Sonoran plaza becomes more militarized, criminal organizations must become more aggressive in
order to transport drugs, weapons, humans, and currency across the U.S.-Mexico border. This increased
desperation of drug traffickers poses a significant threat to Arizona law enforcement, especially to those
officers and canine units deployed in the southern counties of Arizona. Due the pervasive nature of
narcotics and alien smuggling, this risk cannot be completely disposed of but it could be mitigated by
filling the manpower gaps and deploying more officers and canines to the region. A stronger show of
force (more officers and canines) and determination (confidence and strength in numbers) by officers in
the border areas will have a positive effect towards deterring Mexican smuggling organizations from
engaging Arizona law enforcement officers in aggressive or violent actions.