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Contents
Acknowledgments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . vii
Abbreviations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ix
Country Groups. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xi
Executive Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xiii
Boxes
2.1 Glossary: Migrants, refugees, and asylum seekers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
2.2 What affects public perceptions of immigration?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
2.3 The globalization of education. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
2.4 How do migration and connectivity affect growth? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
Figures
1.1 Industrial production has strengthened, in the region and globally. . . . . . . . . 7
1.2 Slowdown in China has not led to slowdown elsewhere. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
1.3 Europe and Central Asia outperforms the rest of the world in exports . . . . . . 8
1.4 EU accession countries outperformed China in export markets. . . . . . . . . . . . 9
1.5 The unemployment rate in the EU-28 has fallen back to pre-crisis levels. . . . 10
1.6. German unemployment has reversed the upward trend . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
1.7 Oil-exporting and remittance-receiving countries experienced strong real
depreciations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
2.1 The stock of refugees has risen, globally and in Europe and Central Asia. . . 20
2.2 Survey respondents have cited immigration and terrorism as the most
important issues facing the European Union since November 2015 . . . . . . . 22
2.3 Public perceptions of immigration are more positive in Northern Europe
than in the rest of the region. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
B2.2.1 People in the European Union are more accepting of immigration from
other EU member states than from outside the European Union. . . . . . . . . . 24
B2.2.2 Opposition to migration is more economic than cultural. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
2.4 The vast majority of refugees and asylum seekers in Europe and
Central Asia now come from the Middle East and North Africa. . . . . . . . . . . 26
2.5 Asylum rejection rates in the European Union are high . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
2.6 The share of high-skilled immigrants in OECD countries increased
between 2000 and 2010. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
2.7 ECA countries increasingly aim to attract high-skilled immigrants. . . . . . . . . 31
Contents ● v
Tables
E.1 Regional classification. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xi
1.1 Upward revisions of GDP forecasts for Europe and Central Asia . . . . . . . . . . . 5
1.2 Divergence in fiscal balances in Europe and Central Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
1.3 Foreign direct investment has declined in Central Europe and
the Baltics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
B2.4.1 Impact of connectivity on annual growth of income per capita (percent) . . . 36
B2.4.2 Countries in Europe and Central Asia with highest and
lowest connectivity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
B2.4.1 Impact of connectivity on annual growth of income per capita (percent) . . . 37
2.1 Selected social statistics for people born in the European Union
and elsewhere . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
A.1 Economies included in figure 2.4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
A.2 Economies included in figure 2.6 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48
A.3 Economies included in figure B2.3.1. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48
A.4 Economies included in figure B.2.3.2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48
A.5 Economies included in figure B2.3.3. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
Acknowledgments
This Europe and Central Asia (ECA) Economic Update is a joint product of ECA’s
Office of the Chief Economist, the Social Protection, Labor and Jobs Global Practice,
the Poverty Global Practice, and the Macro and Fiscal Management Global Practice.
Part I was prepared by a team in the Chief Economist’s Office in collaboration with
colleagues from the Social Protection, Labor and Jobs Global Practice, led by Hans
Timmer, and including Supriyo De, Bingjie Hu, Iloila Lacson Tan, Georgi Panterov,
Dilip Ratha, Kirsten Schuettler, William Shaw, Ekaterina Ushakova, and Li Xu.
Chapter I benefitted from forecasts (presented in Part II) prepared by economists
in the Macro and Fiscal Management Global Practice. Roy Sudharshan Canagarajah,
David Gould, and Alexander Kremer provided valuable comments on Part I.
Part II was prepared by teams from the Macro and Fiscal Management Global
Practice (led by Andrew Burns, Maria De los Angeles Cuqui Gonzalez Miranda,
Lalita M. Moorty, and Gallina Andronova Vincelette) and the Poverty Global
Practice (led by Luis-Felipe Lopez-Calva), with inputs from the Developments
Prospects Group (led by Ayhan Kose). These teams included the following staff:
Sarah Nankya Babirye, Elena Bondarenko, Cesar Cancho, Marie-Anne
Chambonnier, Alexandru Cojocaru, Marcel Chistruga, Pablo Facundo Cuevas,
Barbara Cunha, Maria Eugenia Davalos, Agim Demukaj, Mariam Dolidze,
Donato De Rosa, Bakyt Dubashov, Olga Emelyanova, Mismake D. Galatis, Elisa
Gamberoni, Anastasia Golovach, Gohar Gyulumyan, Kiryl Haiduk, Marco
Antonio Hernandez Ore, Sandra Hlivnjak, Paulina Ewa Holda, Stella Ilieva,
Maria Gabriela Inchauste Comboni, Saida Ismailakhunova, Charl Jooste,
Jonathan George Karver, Faruk Khan, Edith Kikoni, Sinem Kilic Celik, Yeon Soo
Kim, Naoko Kojo, Christos Kostopoulos, Aurelien Kruse, Leszek Pawel Kasek,
Caterina Ruggeri Laderchi, Sanja Madzarevic-Sujster, Mikhail Matytsin, Kristina
Cathrine Mercado, Moritz Meyer, Jose Montes, Minh Cong Nguyen, Trang Van
Nguyen, Catalin Pauna, Mona Prasad, Habib Nasser Rab, Alisher Rajabov, Nadir
Ramazanov, Julio Revilla, Monica Robayo, Paul Andres Corral Rodas, Apurva
Sanghi, Ilyas Sarsenov, William Hutchins Seitz, Lazar Sestovic, Hilda Shijaku,
Bojan Shimbov, Maryna Sidarenka, Emily Sinnott, Emilia Skrok, Karlis Smits,
David Andrew Stephan, Marc Stocker, Congyan Tan, Indiana Taylor, Thi Thanh
Thanh Bui, Eskender Trushin, Vincent Belinga De Paul Tsoungui, Ekaterina
Vostroknutova, Pinar Yasar and Bakhrom Ziyaev.
Ekaterina Ushakova oversaw the layout and production of the report. Barbara
Karni edited and Michael Alwan typeset it. Artem Kolesnikov, John Mackedon,
and Filip Kochan provided communications and outreach support, including the
dedicated webpage (http://www.worldbank.org/en/region/eca/publication/
europe-and-central-asia-economic-update). vii
Abbreviations
ix
Country Groups
Europe
Luxemburg Malta Romania Lithuania Serbia
and
The Netherlands Slovak Republic
Central
United Kingdom Slovenia
Asia
South Central Russian Other Eastern
Caucasus Asia Federation Turkey Europe
Eastern
Europe Armenia Kazakhstan Belarus
Uzbekistan
EU-28: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France,
Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxemburg, Malta, the Netherlands, Poland,
Portugal, Romania, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom
EU-13: Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Romania,
Slovak Republic, Slovenia
EU-15: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxemburg, the
Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom
xi
Executive Summary
Economic growth in Europe and Central Asia (ECA) is set to reach 2.2 percent in 2017, the
strongest growth in six years and 0.3 percentage point faster than estimated in May 2017.
Most ECA economies are showing more rapid growth than previously expected, reflecting
a strengthening of growth in industrial production and exports in recent months. Export
growth in the region continues to exceed that in the rest of the world. The relatively favor-
able growth outlook comes with a normalization of inflation; a decline in unemployment
rates; and, in many countries, moderate fiscal deficits.
With the robust cyclical performance, countries are shifting their focus toward struc-
tural challenges that are part of the new normal after the financial crisis and the fall in
commodity prices.
In the eastern part of the region, adjustment to the change in relative prices and the
dramatic fall in income caused by the decline in oil prices is incomplete. Needed reforms
could help boost exports. Several countries, especially Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, have
taken first steps toward such reforms.
In the western part of the region, platform networks and the sharing economy have
grown rapidly since the global financial crisis, after which investors began looking for new
investment opportunities, workers demonstrated a new willingness to engage in more
flexible working arrangements, and individuals became eager to commercialize some of
their underutilized assets. These changes have created many opportunities—but they have
also increased uncertainty and anxiety. The challenge is to adjust the design of social secu-
rity systems and the regulation of labor markets to this new reality.
Technological advancement, the globalization of production and work, and the chal-
lenges caused by lower commodity prices have contributed to a rise in public anxiety. It
came to the surface as the number of asylum seekers and undocumented migrants in the
region rose, leading to concerns about immigration in general. Often lost in the current
debate is the fact that the number of refugees in ECA is not unprecedented, that surges tend
to be temporary, that refugees represent just a small share of the total number of migrants—
and that migration has long been vital to the region, with ECA economies reaping substan-
tial benefits from cross-border labor mobility.
Migration patterns are likely to change with technological progress and further cross-
border connectivity, and competition for high-quality jobs will become more intense. Re-
forms should help both migrants and nonmigrants cope with the inevitable increase in
flexibility in labor markets—by, for example, ensuring the portability of benefits, increas-
ing income security for workers, and better integrating migrants in host countries.
xiii
PART
I
Economic Outlook
Economic Developments
and Prospects
1
Overview
GDP growth in Europe and Central Asia (ECA) is shaping up to reach 2.2 percent
in 2017, the strongest growth in six years. The current estimate is 0.3 percentage
points higher than forecast in ECA’s May Economic Update.
Almost all parts of the region show stronger growth than earlier expected,
reflecting a strengthening of industrial production and exports in recent months.
ECA’s export volume growth continues to exceed the global average. Central
Europe and the Western Balkans continue to register solid GDP growth, while the
Russian Federation and Belarus have come out of recession. Only Azerbaijan, the
country that was hardest hit by the fall in oil prices and that responded with some
delay, is expected to remain in recession this year.
The improved growth outlook comes with a normalization of inflation, lower
unemployment rates, and in many countries moderate fiscal deficits. Average
inflation in the European Union is approaching 2 percent this year, after close to
zero inflation a year ago. Inflation in Kazakhstan and Russia has plummeted
from the double-digit rates after the fall in oil prices—confirmation that the re-
cent low inflation in oil-importing countries and high inflation in oil-exporting
countries merely reflected one-time adjustments in relative import prices. In sev-
eral countries, unemployment rates have fallen below pre-2008 levels and labor
participation rates are above pre-crisis levels. The average fiscal deficit this year
is 1.6 percent of GDP, down from 5 percent in 2009.
Despite this robust cyclical performance, daunting structural challenges have
come to the surface:
3
4 ● World Bank ECA Economic Update October 2017
• The banking sector remains fragile in many countries, and weaknesses have
become more exposed in countries that directly or indirectly depend on com-
modity exports. Moreover, the financial sectors in ECA are struggling to ab-
sorb new technologies and meet new demand for risky capital.
• The eastern part of the region has still not fully adjusted to the change in rela-
tive prices and the dramatic fall in income triggered by the drop in oil prices.
The unavoidable decline in private consumption has been steep. Over the last
two years, consumption declined 16.4 percent in Tajikistan, 14.2 percent in
Russia, 9.1 percent in Armenia, and 6.2 percent in Belarus. In other countries,
where adjustment to new realities was slower, a sharp downward adjustment
in income might still occur. Relative price changes have opened up the op-
portunity for sharply increased exports, but in most cases reform programs
are needed to realize these opportunities. Several countries (Belarus, Kazakh-
stan, and Uzbekistan) have taken first steps toward such reforms.
Chapter 1: Economic Developments and Prospects ● 5
GDP growth in ECA is shaping up to reach 2.2 percent in 2017, the strongest
growth in six years and 0.3 percentage points higher than estimated in the May
Economic Update (Table 1.1). Almost all parts of the region show higher growth
than earlier expected, reflecting a strengthening of activity in recent months.
In the western part of the region, defined as the European Union (EU) and the
Western Balkans, countries in Central Europe are expected to grow the most rap-
idly during this and coming years. GDP growth in these new EU member states
is forecast to be almost twice the average growth in the European Union. This
pattern represents a continuation of the historical convergence trend that earned
the European Union the title of convergence machine (Gill and Raiser 2012). In the
seven boom years before the global financial crisis (2001–07), GDP in Central Eu-
rope grew 4.7 percent a year—twice the 2.3 percent annual growth in the European
Union. In the seven years after the crisis (2011–17), Central European economies
continued to grow twice as rapidly (2.5 percent versus 1.3 percent). As growth is
strengthening throughout the region, this relationship is likely to be sustained.
The Western Balkans are the only subregion in ECA for which growth rates
have been reduced since April. The downgrading mainly indicates delayed ac-
celeration of growth. As during the last two decades, GDP growth in the Western
Balkans resembles growth in Central Europe much more than growth in the rest
of the European Union.
TABLE 1.1 Upward revisions of GDP forecasts for Europe and Central Asia
Europe and Central Asia 1.9 1.8 2.2 1.9 1.9 0.0 0.3 0.1
European Union and Western Balkans 2.2 1.9 2.1 1.8 1.7 0.0 0.3 0.2
Western Europe 2.2 1.8 2.0 1.6 1.5 0.0 0.3 0.2
Northern Europe 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.1 2.2 0.0 0.3 –0.1
Central Europe 3.7 2.9 3.7 3.4 3.3 –0.1 0.5 0.3
Southern Europe 1.6 1.7 1.9 1.5 1.4 –0.1 0.4 0.1
Western Balkans 2.3 2.9 2.8 3.2 3.5 0.1 –0.4 –0.3
Eastern Europe and Central Asia 0.1 1.1 2.6 2.5 2.8 0.1 0.4 0.0
South Caucasus 1.7 –2.1 0.3 1.9 2.4 0.0 0.2 0.3
Central Asia 2.9 2.8 4.4 3.5 3.8 0.1 0.6 –0.5
Russian Federation –2.8 –0.2 1.7 1.7 1.8 0.0 0.4 0.3
Other Eastern Europe –7.6 0.8 2.0 3.1 3.5 0.0 0.6 0.4
Source: World Bank.
6 ● World Bank ECA Economic Update October 2017
High-frequency data for Southern Europe point at stronger growth than ear-
lier expected. Still, the upgraded growth outlook for this part of Europe, which
was hardest hit by the European banking crises, is still not strong enough to make
up lost ground. Before the global financial crisis, growth in Southern Europe
virtually equaled growth in the rest of the European Union. During the crisis
years (2008–10), the cumulative contraction in Southern Europe was 4.2 percent,
versus 1.8 percent for the European Union as a whole. Divergence continued dur-
ing the seven years after the crisis, with the European Union growing at an aver-
age annual rate of 1.3 percent and Southern Europe experiencing no growth at all.
The current outlook suggests that this trend will not soon be reversed.
The picture in the eastern part of ECA is mixed. Oil- and gas-exporting coun-
tries and some neighboring countries are coming out of a recession that was trig-
gered by the fall in oil prices at the end of 2014. Only Azerbaijan, which is more
dependent on the export of fossil fuels than other countries in the region and
which responded with some delay, is still in recession. High and rising oil prices
brought a decade of exceptionally strong growth, with a short interruption in
2009. The outlook is now more fragile for oil-dependent countries.
In an idiosyncratic crisis caused largely by geopolitical tension and a legacy of
macroeconomic problems, Ukraine lost cumulatively more than 16 percent of its
GDP in 2014 and 2015. It is registering positive growth again, but not nearly
enough to undo the damage done during these two years.
Turkey showed remarkably strong GDP growth after the global financial cri-
sis, largely because of effective fiscal stimulus. Average annual GDP growth in
2011–16 was 6.4 percent. In 2016 growth declined to 3.2 percent, with rising infla-
tion, rising long-term interest rates, and a depreciating lira. However, the first
half of 2017 showed a strengthening of growth again, leading to higher expected
growth than in other parts of the ECA region.
The upward revision of the growth forecasts follows data releases of high-fre-
quency indicators that point at strong activity during the first half of 2017. In July
the volume of industrial production in ECA was 4.2 percent above its level a year
earlier (Figure 1.1). The increase constitutes a sharp acceleration from perfor-
mance in recent years and is well above the annual average 1.5 percent growth
since 2000. Stronger growth is broad-based within ECA. One of the few excep-
tions is the United Kingdom, where the approaching break with the European
Union has depressed growth in industrial activity.
The recent acceleration of economic activity is part of a global trend. In the rest
of the world excluding ECA and China, industrial production increased 3.2
percent during the 12 months ending in July 2017, a much faster rate than the
long-term annual growth rate of 1.2 percent. Growth of industrial production in
China is of a different order of magnitude (6.2 percent over the last 12 months).
Chapter 1: Economic Developments and Prospects ● 7
FIGURE 1.1 Industrial production has strengthened, in the region and globally
6
Industrial production, annualized
4
growth rate (percent)
0
2012M03 2012M11 2013M07 2014M03 2014M11 2015M07 2016M03 2016M11 2017M07
–2
–4
–6
–8
Europe and Central Asia World excluding ECA and China
High as that growth rate is, however, it is only half the average annual growth
rate of 12 percent since 2000.
Slowdown in China does not necessarily lead to a slowdown in the rest of the
world (Figure 1.2). On the contrary, as China’s slowdown comes with rising costs,
it improves the competitiveness of producers in other countries (World Bank 2016).
The acceleration of global growth is also evident in recent export data. The
volume of global merchandise exports rose 7 percent in the 12 months ending in
10 20
18
Industrial production, annual growth of
14
0
1998M12 2001M01 2003M02 2005M03 2007M04 2009M05 2011M06 2013M07 2015M08
12
–5 10
8
–10
6
4
–15
2
–20 0
China (right axis) Europe and Central Asia (left axis) Rest of the world (left axis)
July 2017. Exports originating in ECA countries grew by 7.8 percent. These num-
bers are important for two reasons. First, global export growth is now faster than
any year since 2010, when exports rebounded from the unprecedented collapse
in 2009. Second, ECA’s exports are outperforming exports from other parts of the
world. ECA’s export performance over the last three years is even more striking,
with average annual growth of 5.2 percent, compared with 1.6 percent export
growth in the rest of the world (Figure 1.3). The weakening of the euro in 2015—fol-
lowing the start of quantitative easing by the European Central Bank in January of
that year and the real depreciation of currencies in the eastern part of ECA after oil
prices fell in the final quarter of 2014—contributed to ECA’s export success.
The export success of Central European countries has been remarkable over
an even longer period. It compares favorably with export performance in China.
The unweighted annual average of the growth of exports of goods and services
(in volume terms) of EU accession countries was 11 percent in the six years before
the global financial crisis, compared with 12 percent for China. Four countries—
Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, and the Slovak Republic—registered
stronger growth than China. Only Croatia and Malta were clearly falling behind,
with average growth rates of just under 6 percent. Export growth was an impor-
tant vehicle for Central Europe’s convergence toward EU levels during this pe-
riod. During the six years after the crisis, export growth in China fell to just 4
percent. Annual export growth averaged 4 percent in Croatia and Malta; 7 per-
cent in Lithuania, Poland, and the Slovak Republic; and 9 percent in Romania.
Export growth of the older EU member states has fallen short of the performance
of the new members, but the slowdown after the crisis has been much more mod-
erate (Figure 1.4).
FIGURE 1.3 Europe and Central Asia outperforms the rest of the world in exports
8
Export volumes, annualized growth rate (percent)
0
2011M12 2012M07 2013M02 2013M09 2014M04 2014M11 2015M06 2016M01 2016M08 2017M03
–1
Europe and Central Asia World excluding ECA
14
12
10
Ireland
Romania
8
Lithuania Slovakia
Poland
Bulgaria
6 Portugal Estonia
Czech Republic
Luxembourg Latvia Hungary
Sweden Spain Croatia Slovenia
4 Netherlands Germany China
Belgium
France Denmark Malta
Italy Austria
2
United Kingdom Greece
Finland
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
Annual growth of export volumes, goods, and services, 2002―07
FIGURE 1.5 The unemployment rate in the EU-28 has fallen back to pre-crisis levels
12
11
Unemployment rate (percent)
10
6
2000Q1 2001Q3 2003Q1 2004Q3 2006Q1 2007Q3 2009Q1 2010Q3 2012Q1 2013Q3 2015Q1 2016Q3
12
10
Unemployment rate (percent)
0
1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014
thetic leg was created by a 3D printer, genome sequencing costs fell dramatically,
bitcoin was invented, and Airbnb was created. Uber came on the scene in 2009.
The success of all these technologies and companies in the decade after the
crisis may not be a coincidence. The major recession changed the behavior of in-
vestors, workers, and consumers. Investors had lost traditional investment opportu-
nities and were looking for yields in a zero-interest-rate environment. Many workers
had lost their jobs and were willing to experiment with more flexible contracts in
the digital economy. Many consumers were looking for cheaper services and
were open to sharing some of their underutilized assets in the sharing economy.
New disruptive technologies continue to emerge. The Internet of things will
change the way products are produced, as illustrated by Internet 4.0, promoted
by German industry. The commercial use of drones will change the way products
are delivered. Personalized precision medicine will change the way people con-
sume health services. Self-driving cars will revolutionize the automobile
industry.
New technologies increase efficiency and improve services—but they are also
disruptive. They will require changes in labor market policies and social security
systems. Digital technologies create winners and losers and thus change the dis-
tribution of income and wealth. Firms that create successful digital networks can
grow at an unprecedented rate with small initial investments, while traditional
firms may experience sharp losses in valuation. Workers may face a new, digital
divide between skill levels.
Flexible contracts have become the dominant employment arrangement for
younger workers. In Poland the share of nonpermanent employment increased
from less than 5 percent in 2000 to more than 15 percent in 2017. In the Nether-
lands the share of part-time workers and the self-employed is high and rising.
Surveys show a similar rise of nontraditional employment contracts in Austria,
Hungary, Italy, and Portugal. A forthcoming World Bank report—Leveling the
Playing Field: Rethinking the Social Contract in Europe and Central Asia—shows that
income inequality among young cohorts is greater today than it was in the past.
Many social security systems in ECA are based on a corporate model that
serves people with long-term employment contracts and a government system
that protects the poorest in society. Supporting large numbers of people with flex-
ible contracts in an adequate way, while preserving incentives to take risks and
innovate, represents a formidable challenge.
ECA’s financial landscape changed dramatically during the decade after the cri-
sis. Low and even negative real interest rates are a central feature of that new
landscape. New vulnerabilities in the banking sector, the decline in foreign direct
investment (FDI) flows to Central Europe and the Baltics, and an increased need
for venture capital are other features. These new features can complicate the fu-
ture role of financial intermediation in ECA.
Chapter 1: Economic Developments and Prospects ● 13
There have been good reasons for the European Central Bank’s zero interest
rate policy and quantitative easing in response to the financial crisis. Loose mon-
etary policy in the eastern part of the region is the proper response to the fall in
oil prices and remittances. But low interest rates come with risks.
For one thing, they can create new bubbles. Corporate bond lending has
surged in the region, which is likely to create distress once interest rates inevita-
bly start rising. This risk is primarily a corporate sector risk in ECA, but some
sovereigns could also find themselves in the danger zone, especially in Southern
Europe, where government debt has increased to 120 percent of GDP.
Low interest rates while the real economy is no longer in a cyclical downturn
also reduce the stock of monetary ammunition, which could be a problem if fu-
ture stimulus is needed. Low interest rates in Europe also make it difficult for
banks to earn profits.
Low interest rate policies have been partly a response to low GDP growth and
low productivity growth. However, it is unclear how much of the low productiv-
ity growth after the crisis was a real phenomenon and how much simply reflected
measurement problems. The surge in applications of new technologies has cre-
ated formidable measurement challenges. It is virtually impossible to measure
improvements in the quality of services; it is difficult to value services that are
provided for free and financed by advertising; and it is challenging to measure
production in the sharing economy when consumers use underutilized assets
(Ahmad and Schreyer 2016). Moreover, the new technologies may have rendered
some of the old capacity obsolete, accelerating the scrap rate of existing capital.
If this phenomenon is significant, it can lead to an underestimation of the rate of
technological progress. No conclusions have yet been reached about the causes
of the observed productivity slowdown in the new normal, but the potential
measurement problem argues for caution about adopting far-reaching policies to
counteract the observed slowdown.
In the eastern part of the region, many banks find themselves in a very vulner-
able situation. They have suffered significant losses as a result of unavoidable
exchange rate depreciations, triggered by the decline in oil prices, and they cu-
mulated losses on their investments in commodity production and real estate. In
many cases, they entered this challenging period in a vulnerable position, having
engaged in loss-making “connected” lending (lending in which the bank and the
borrowing firm are connected to the same entity).
A big challenge for the financial sectors in the eastern part of the region is to
provide funding for new companies in new sectors that use new technologies. It
is an open question whether banks with entrenched ties to the nontradable sec-
tors are flexible enough to finance new export sectors. Without new companies
that are competitive in international markets, oil-exporting and surrounding
countries will not be able to fully adjust to all the large changes in relative prices
triggered by the decline in oil prices.
European banks shrunk after the crisis and are now well capitalized. But their
profitability has declined, and some banks remain vulnerable. As in the rest of the
region, it is unclear whether European financial sectors can provide the risky
capital needed to develop new technologies. Globally, venture capital increased
14 ● World Bank ECA Economic Update October 2017
70 percent in real terms over the last decade, while initial public offerings (IPOs)
declined by half (Wright and Asimakopoulos 2017).
One of the manifestations of the decline in traditional financing could be the
drop in FDI flowing into Central Europe and the Baltics (Table 1.3). These inflows
are now less than half the level before the global financial crisis. The large inflow
of FDI into the EU accession countries during the early 2000s may have been
temporary; as these countries develop, the focus should naturally shift from in-
ward FDI to outward FDI. Still, reduced FDI inflows have become part of the new
normal for this part of the region. The big challenge for ECA’s financial sectors is
to accommodate these and other changes in funding activities.
Regional integration has long been a driving force for prosperity in ECA. With
many small nations, there is no alternative to close cross-border cooperation.
Without regional integration, it is impossible to achieve the economies of scale
and the degree of competition required to increase prosperity.
New technologies have made it even more important to be connected to inter-
national markets that spark innovations. It is increasingly vital to be connected in
multiple dimensions, as a forthcoming World Bank report—Critical Connections:
Why ECA’s Regional and Global Network of Interconnections Matter for Inclusive
Growth and Stability—demonstrates. Trade, migration, financial flows, and infor-
mation and communications technology (ICT) connectivity tend to reinforce one
another; combined they are a conduit for essential knowledge spillovers. If connec-
tivity falls behind in one dimension, the other dimensions become less effective.
The eastern part of the region has still not fully adjusted to the change in relative
prices and the dramatic fall in income triggered by the plunge in oil prices and
the subsequent drop in remittances. The unavoidable decline in private con-
sumption has been steep: over the last two years, consumption declined 16.4
percent in Tajikistan, 14.2 percent in Russia, 9.1 percent in Armenia, and 6.2 per-
cent in Belarus. In other countries, where adjustment to new realities was slower,
a sharp downward adjustment in income might still come.
Countries can adjust successfully only if they seize the new export opportuni-
ties created by the relative price changes rather than merely defending against
the negative impacts of these changes. In most cases reform programs are needed
to realize the new export opportunities. Changes in exchange rate policies are
needed, to smoothly achieve the unavoidable real depreciation. Extrapolations of
a model that captures historical patterns of real exchange rates suggest that oil
exporters have achieved the required real depreciation. Of the remittance-receiv-
ing countries that indirectly depend on the oil price, only Georgia seems to have
reached the new equilibrium (Figure 1.7).
Realizing new export opportunities also requires reforms of the banking sec-
tor, in order to eliminate distortions that benefit banks that engage in connected
lending in nontradable sectors and create new funding possibilities for start-ups.
It requires mitigation of the artificial monopoly power that state-owned enter-
prises or enterprises controlled by oligarchs enjoy. It requires adjustments in fis-
cal policies, to avoid too much domestic stimulus, which can offset the newly
16 ● World Bank ECA Economic Update October 2017
FIGURE 1.7 Oil-exporting and remittance-receiving countries experienced strong real depreciations
Azerbaijan Armenia
250
250
Adjustment rate (percent)
150 150
100 100
50 50
0 0
01
07
01
07
01
07
01
07
01
07
01
07
01
07
01
07
M
M
M
M
M
M
00
05
10
15
02
07
12
17
00
05
10
15
02
07
12
17
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Kazakhstan Georgia
250
250
200 200
150 150
100 100
50 50
0
0
01
07
01
07
01
07
01
07
01
07
01
07
01
07
01
07
M
M
M
00
05
10
15
M
02
07
12
17
M
M
00
05
10
15
20
20
20
02
07
12
17
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Kyrgyz Republic
Russian Federation 250
Adjustment rate (percent)
250
Adjustment rate (percent)
200
200
150
150
100
100
50
50
0
0
01
07
01
07
01
07
01
07
0M
0M
5M
01
07
01
07
01
07
01
07
2M
7M
05
07
12
0M
5M
5M
M
7M
2M
7M
1
0
1
0
20
20
10
20
20
02
20
20
20
20
0
1
0
1
1
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
References
Ahmad, Nadim, and Paul Schreyer. 2016. “Measuring GDP in a Digitalised Economy.”
OECD/STD Working Paper 2016/7. Paris: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and
Development.
Gill, Intermits S., and Martin Raiser. 2012. Golden Growth: Restoring the Lustra of the European
Economic Model. Europe and Central Asia Studies. Washington, DC: World Bank.
Available at http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/539371468036253854/
Main-report.
World Bank. 2015. “Low Commodity Prices and Weak Currencies.” Europe and Central Asia
Economic Update (October), Washington, DC.
———. 2016. “Polarization and Populism.” Europe and Central Asia Economic Update
(November), Washington, DC.
———. 2017. “Trade in Transition.” Europe and Central Asia Economic Update (May),
Washington, DC.
———. Forthcoming a. Critical Connections: Why ECA’s Regional and Global Network of
Interconnections Matter for Inclusive Growth and Stability. Washington, DC.
———. Forthcoming b. Leveling the Playing Field: Rethinking the Social Contract in Europe and
Central Asia (ECA). Washington, DC.
Wright, William, and Panagiotis Asimakopoulos. 2017. A Decade of Change in Capital Markets.
Analysis of What Has and Hasn’t Changed in the Capital Markets Industry since 2006.
NewFinancial, London.
Migration and Mobility in
Europe and Central Asia
2
Overview
The sharp increase in asylum seekers and undocumented migrants has greatly
exacerbated public concerns in Europe and Central Asia (ECA) over immigration
in general. This response seems to reflect broader anxiety about reduced job se-
curity, caused by the technological developments and the internationalization of
production and work discussed in Chapter 1 of this report.
The current debate often overlooks the fact that the number of forced mi-
grants in ECA is not unprecedented, that an influx of refugees tends to be tempo-
rary in nature, and that there are stark differences between refugees and other
types of migrants. Migration has been vital in ECA’s social and economic history.
For centuries, it has helped vulnerable households in the region escape poverty
and political persecution. In recent decades, ECA economies have benefited from
cross-border labor mobility.
Migration patterns in the region are likely to change, along with technological
advancement and further cross-border connectivity. The competition for high-
quality jobs will become more intense. The share of high-skilled and circular
migration may increase, and the duration of skilled migration may decline.
Policy reforms should not focus on migration challenges in isolation. Rather,
reforms should help both migrants and nonmigrants cope with increased and
unavoidable flexibility in labor markets. Successful reforms will likely improve
the portability of benefits, increase income security for workers with flexible con-
tracts, and better integrate migrants in host countries. Programs in origin coun-
tries could improve the mixed effects on family members left behind, who benefit
from increased resources but suffer from the prolonged absence of parents,
spouses, and adult children.
The refugee crisis seems to have made it politically more difficult to fully
benefit from cross-border mobility. However, the heightened attention the topic
receives could also present an opportunity to establish a more coherent multilat-
eral framework for migration while respecting country-specific idiosyncrasies.
19
20 ● World Bank ECA Economic Update October 2017
14
Stock of refugees (million)
12
10
6
5.1
4
2 1.9
0
1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016
Asylum seeker: Person who has applied for asy- a proper visa, residence, or work permit or in viola-
lum in a country and is in the process of having his tion of laws for foreigners.
or her refugee status determined. After an appli-
Refugee: According to the 1951 Geneva Conven-
cation has been processed, an asylum seeker may
tion, someone “who is outside his or her country
be granted refugee status or some other form of
of nationality or habitual residence; has a well-
(often temporary) humanitarian or subsidiary pro-
founded fear of being persecuted because of his
tection status (if returning to the country of origin
or her race, religion, nationality, membership of
would put the individual’s life or person at risk).
The application may also be rejected, requiring the a particular social group or political opinion; and
individual to leave the country. is unable or unwilling to avail him- or herself of
the protection of that country, or to return there,
International migrant: Person who changes his or her for fear of persecution.” Regional refugee defini-
country of residence, irrespective of the reason. Most tions (such as the 1969 Organization of African
countries define migrants as people who were born in Unity Convention and the Cartagena Declaration)
another country. A few countries use citizenship as the also include people displaced by armed conflict
criterion. About 3 percent of the world’s people and violence. Recent guidelines from the United
are migrants. Refugees make up only a small share Nations High Commissioner on Refugees (UNHCR
(7–8 percent) of the world’s international migrants. 2016a) also suggest that people displaced by
Irregular or undocumented migrant: Person who armed conflict and violence fall under the 1951
has entered, stayed, or worked in a country without Convention definition.
FIGURE 2.2 Survey respondents have cited immigration and terrorism as the most important issues
facing the European Union since November 2015
70
60 59 58
54
53
50 48 48
46
45 45 44
43
40 36
Percent
38 36 39 38 39 38
34 33
32 32
30 25
27 23 29 27
26 21
24 23 19 18
20 20 20
21
16 17 17
15 9 9 15
14 13 15 16
10 10 11
8 7
6 5 6
4 6
0
2010 May-11 Nov-11 May-12 Nov-12 May-13 Nov-13 May-14 Nov-14 May-15 Nov-15 May-16 Nov-16 May-17
Survey round
Terrorism Immigration Economic situation Unemployment
FIGURE 2.3 Public perceptions of immigration are more positive in Northern Europe than in
the rest of the region
a. EU-15
2.0
1.5
1.0
Average rating
0.5
0.0
–0.5
–1.0
–1.5
ly
n
nd
al
e
a
d
ce
en
l
k
y
–2.0
s
ga
g
ai
Ita
tri
ec
an
ar
an
t
nd
iu
ur
To
la
an
ed
Sp
do
s
tu
nm
lg
re
nl
m
bo
Ire
Au
rla
Fr
r
Sw
Be
Fi
ng
G
Po
er
De
he
m
G
Ki
xe
et
d
Lu
N
ite
Un
2002 2014
b. EU-13
2.0
1.5
1.0
Average rating
0.5
0.0
–0.5
–1.0
–1.5
Total Czech Republic Hungary Slovenia Estonia Lithuania Poland
–2.0
2002 2014
There is more support for immigration by groups citizens within the European Union. The European
that are considered similar Social Survey also shows more support for admit-
ting immigrants of the same race/ethnic group as
Europeans are more worried about immigration
the majority. In the Russian Federation, attitudes
from outside the European Union than about toward migrants from Ukraine, Belarus, and other
mobility within the European Union (Figure B2.2.1; regions with predominantly Russian populations
German Marshall Fund 2014). According to the are more positive than attitudes toward immigrants
Spring 2017 Eurobarometer survey, more than 8 from the South Caucasus or Central Asia (Levada
in 10 EU citizens favor the free movement of EU Center 2017).
B2.2.1 People in the European Union are more accepting of immigration from other
EU member states than from outside the European Union
100
90
80
70
Percent of total
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
L ly
ve a
Po pain
m a
ec C -28
Be ce
N ing ria
S d
m nd
ak pu s
Es tia
Fr ce
Bu nia
Sw and
Lu Ire en
H ium
n ia
Fi gal
M y
ite A nia
G nia
er k
th y
Po ia
Cr ds
g
pu c
ic
he om
ov Re ru
Sl alt
Ro atvi
Li an
G mar
n
Ita
Re bli
ur
De gar
n
ga
bl
oa
an
e
la
xe la
ed
n
to
a
Sl h yp
ua
rtu
d us
EU
bo
et d
lg
m
re
nl
rla
un
l
o
K
Cz
Un
Within EU: Negative Within EU: Positive Within EU: Don't Know
Outside EU: Negative Outside EU: Positive Outside EU: Don't Know
The economic situation affects public perceptions personal and their countries’ economic situations
were strong predictors of their views of immigra-
Opposition to immigration in ECA seems to be
based more on economic than cultural issues. In tion, with the share of people favoring reducing
the 2012–14 International Organization for Migra- migration highest in countries with the highest
tion/Gallup survey, people’s views about their unemployment rates. In most ECA countries,
more people disagreed that immigrants are good cultures (Figure B2.2.2). This result, from the Inter-
for the economy than disagreed that immigrants national Social Survey Program, is corroborated by
improve a society by bringing in new ideas and results from the European Social Survey.
90
80
70
60
Percent of total
50
40
30
20
10
0
Re ey
Re lic
ic
ia
ia
Be ia
m
ry
ia
ce
De ia
ia
nd
Po y
Sw al
en
m
an
ar
ni
ai
an
bl
ss
tv
rg
en
g
iu
ga
ak ub
rk
oa
an
ed
la
do
ua
to
Sp
rtu
nm
pu
La
m
lg
nl
eo
Ru
ov
Tu
Ire
un
p
Fr
Cr
Es
ng
er
th
Fi
Sl
H
Li
G
Ki
h
ec
d
ov
ite
Cz
Sl
Un
Good for the economy: Disagree Good for the economy: Agree Good for the economy: Neither
Improve with new ideas: Disagree Improve with new ideas: Agree Improve with new ideas: Neither
Individual characteristics, such as education, also Information can change attitudes toward migration
seem to matter
The 2013 Transatlantic Trends Survey provides evi-
People with a higher level of education are more dence that the public overestimates the number
likely to favor migration. The role of other factors, of immigrants by wide margins; the 2014 and 2015
such as age and gender, varies according to the IPSOS Mori surveys corroborate these results. The
context (OECD 2010). According to some surveys, 2010 and 2014 Transatlantic Trends Surveys show
such as the European Social Survey, people over that people who were given accurate immigration
65 tend to have more negative attitudes toward statistics beforehand were significantly less likely to
immigration. This result could reflect generational say there were “too many” immigrants in the coun-
differences rather than people becoming more try (German Marshall Fund 2014). Besides informa-
anti-immigration as they get older (Bussolo, Koettl, tion about migration, attitudes toward migration are
and Sinnott 2015). shaped by emotions, individual values, and beliefs.
26 ● World Bank ECA Economic Update October 2017
l A nd
ric n
ow s/
Af ara
Af an
kn her
ia
ra a
a
a
sia
n
As
th t
nt pe
ah
or as
Un Ot
-S
Ce uro
h
N eE
ut
b
Su
So
E
dl
id
M
1993 2016
and asylum seekers made up 7.8 percent of the total number of migrants in the
ECA region in 2016.3
The sudden, large rise in the inflow of refugees and asylum seekers is likely to
be temporary. Irregular border crossings into the European Union increased
sharply in 2015 to 1.8 million but decreased to 511,000 in 2016 and seemed to
decline further in 2017.4 Many of these people will not be granted refugee status.
Asylum rejection rates vary widely by country of origin but averaged about 40
percent in 2016 (Figure 2.5). Return rates of refugees vary greatly and tend to be
lower than those of other migrants, but some of the people granted refugee or
subsidiary protection status are likely to return home or move onward once the
situation in their country of origin improves. The number of refugees in the ECA
region from the former Yugoslavia (mainly Bosnia and Herzegovina and Croa-
tia), for example, dropped from 1.3 million in 1996 (after the Dayton Peace Agree-
ment was signed, in December 1995) to 932,000 in 1998 and 311,000 by 2006 (au-
thor’s calculations based on UNHCR data).
1,200
Thousands of people
1,000
800
600
400
200 434
216 200 286
157 170 168 178 198
0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Source: Eurostat.
Note: Figures are first-instance decisions on applications for asylum.
28 ● World Bank ECA Economic Update October 2017
and labor markets. Technology is boosting the integration of labor markets and
increasing demand for high-skilled workers. Improvements in transport and
communications have greatly increased the integration of labor markets, in part
through the rise of global value chains, and general technological improvements
have intensified competition for high-skilled workers. Workers everywhere are
also increasingly in direct competition with workers from the rest of the world.
The Internet has lowered the cost of offshoring, as Internet-based platforms
connect workers and employers across the world. ECA countries participate sig-
nificantly in online digital labor platforms: Russia and Ukraine are the fifth- and
sixth-largest suppliers, respectively, of contract labor to the U.S. market, and
Ukraine had the third-largest cumulative online worker wage bill through 2014
(Horton, Kerr, and Stanton 2017). It is easier to facilitate trade in goods and ser-
vices than to obtain labor inputs by attracting and hosting individuals near the
location of work. Thus, labor market integration does not necessarily lead di-
rectly to more migration. It can first lead to more services trade.
However, integration of labor markets and production chains will boost cross-
border connectivity in many dimensions, which may indirectly lead to more mi-
gration. In general, technological advancement is complementary to global
movements of skilled workers (Kerr et al. 2016). Indeed, the level of high-skilled
migration to ECA/OECD countries increased more than that of less skilled types
of migration during 2000–10 (Figure 2.6). ECA countries are trying to increase the
number of high-skilled immigrants (Figure 2.7). It is the broader rise in connec-
tivity, rather than direct migration, that intensifies competition for high-quality
jobs. Competition occurs almost irrespective of where competing workers are
located. Indeed, empirical evidence suggests that migration has only a small and
temporary impact on average domestic workers’ wages and employment (see,
for instance, Longhi, Nijkamp, and Poot 2005; National Academies of Sciences,
Engineering, and Medicine 2017), although close substitutes may lose, and com-
plements win, especially in the short run. Both the positive and negative effects
30 32
20
33
10 25 27
19
0
2000 2010 2000 2010
ECA-OECD Non-ECA OECD
100
90
80
70
Percent of total
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2005 2015 2005 2015 2005 2015 2005 2015 2005 2015 2005 2015 2005 2015 2005 2015
EU15 EU13 Western South Central Asia Other Eastern Russia Turkey
Balkans Caucasus Europe
Source: World Population Policies Database, United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA) Population Division.
Note: Bars represent the share of country official responses to regional or country total that indicate the government’s policy to lower, maintain, or
raise the level of immigration of high-skilled workers into the country. Regions include all ECA countries (Table E.1) except Kosovo (part of the
Western Balkans) for both years and Denmark, Finland, and Sweden (all part of EU-15) for 2005.
of increased connectivity depend on the flexibility of labor markets and the com-
plementarity between the skills of native-born workers and migrants. Among the
people who lose out are often migrants who arrived previously.
ECA experienced a rise in the number of interna- tries increased significantly between 2004 and
tional students over the past decade, facilitated 2014, except in Germany (figure B2.3.1). In 2014,
by technological progress and rising incomes in apart from China and India, most of the top 10
source countries. The number of international stu- sources of foreign students in ECA were other ECA
dents hosted by the top 10 ECA destination coun- countries (figure B2.3.2).
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
m
ce
ly
ria
ey
ic
an
ti o
in
nd
I ta
bl
do
rk
an
st
a
m
pu
ra
rla
Au
Tu
kr
ng
Fr
er
de
Re
he
U
Ki
Fe
et
ch
d
N
te
ze
ni
ia
C
ss
U
Ru
200 4 201 4
100
80
60
40
20
0
a
an
ne
ce
ly
co
an
in
di
ta
io
Ita
an
oc
ist
ai
Ch
In
at
hs
m
r
en
or
Fr
er
Uk
er
ak
M
d
km
G
Fe
Ka
r
Tu
n
ia
ss
Ru
2004 2014
ECA countries hosted about half of all foreign Federation witnessed remarkable increases in
students globally (figure B2.3.3). Among the top the number of international undergraduate and
10 corridors of international tertiary student flows, graduate students, of 80 percent and 145 percent,
China–United Kingdom and Kazakhstan–Russian respectively (figure B2.3.4).
This process generates significant benefits: mon three-cycle system for tertiary education (the
international students gain a wider access to edu- bachelor’s, master’s, and doctorate degrees). The
cation and employment opportunities abroad, European Higher Education Area and Bologna Pro-
while the receiving countries capture a broader cess has 48 full members. The Commonwealth of
range of skills (Tse 2012). Independent States (CIS) signed an agreement on
During a meeting in Bologna in 1999, European the mutual recognition of education credentials for
officials proposed harmonizing their postsecond- secondary and vocational education in 2004, effec-
ary educational systems and offering programs in tive from September 2005. Russia also has bilateral
English, with the aim of facilitating more interest agreements on mutual recognition with other CIS
and increasing recognition of their degrees glob- countries, including Azerbaijan, Moldova, Turk-
ally. This harmonization has resulted in a com- menistan, and Ukraine.
34 ● World Bank ECA Economic Update October 2017
10
0
Southern Europe Nothern Europe Turkey Western Europe Central Europe
2002 2016
2000 2010
Source: OECD database on immigrants in OECD and non-OECD countries (DIOC) and OECD database on employment.
Note: Temporary migration is defined as migration with a duration of less than five years.
Globalization yields long-term growth benefits, by embodied in other connections (trade, FDI, and
facilitating the transfer of technology and knowl- so forth).
edge. Economic connections between countries— Studying the impact of connectivity on growth
through international trade, foreign investment, requires a framework that captures the state of the
migration, and infrastructure connectivity—play entire network. It is not enough to focus only on the
important roles in furthering economic growth size of the immediate bilateral connections of each
and innovation. Foreign direct investment (FDI), country in the network. Countries that are con-
for example, facilitates the exchange of ideas and nected to more “central” countries will experience
technology. Countries with better connections greater benefits because of their greater exposure
often enjoy higher income growth and shared to flows of information and ideas. For example, $1
prosperity. of trade between Kazakhstan and Germany may
Migration can play an important role in support- provide greater knowledge spillovers than $1 of
ing trade and FDI. Gould (1994) first identified the trade between Kazakhstan and Morocco, because
link between migration and subsequent growth in Germany is much more connected to the global
international trade between the home and host economy and is likely to be a conduit for technol-
countries of migrants. Subsequent studies find evi- ogy and knowledge from other countries it is con-
dence of a strong link between migration and FDI nected to.
flows (Onodera 2008). In fact, migration appears Methods used to analyze complex networks
to be one of the most important networks in the can be used to capture these higher-order effects
global economy: migrants not only transfer knowl- from connectivity. A centrality measure (similar to
edge between the host and home countries, they Google’s PageRank) can be constructed for each
also facilitate the transmission of knowledge country that assigns greater weight to connections
with countries with higher technology as well as to trality not only if they connect to well-connected
countries that are themselves connected to more countries but also if they connect to countries with
central countries. The centrality of each country is a higher propensity to innovate (G).
function of the centrality of its connections, which Table B2.4.1 shows the impact on annual eco-
in turn are a function of the centralities of their con- nomic growth rate of a one standard deviation
nections and so on: increase in various types of connectivity. Trade
and FDI connections have the greatest impact on
Θi = λ ∑k Aki Θk + Gi,
long-term overall growth, followed by migration
where Θ is the connectivity of a country i, A ki is and airline connectivity (after controlling for other
a function of the bilateral links, and Gi is a proxy important growth determinants, such as educa-
for innovation capacity. Countries have higher cen- tion, investment, institutional quality, and others).
TABLE B2.4.1 Impact of connectivity on annual growth of income per capita (percent)
Note: * significant at the 10 percent level; ** significant at the 5 percent level; *** significant at the 1 percent level.
Migration is an important component of the index by 1.9 percent and their overall connectivity
multidimensional connectivity index. In fact, there index by 11.6 percent. Parts of the region still trails
is evidence of complementarity between various behind, however (table B2.4.2).
network layers. Countries with more diversified In addition to improving overall connectivity
connections tend to have higher growth than and stimulating growth through innovation, migra-
countries that focus on one or two types of con- tion linkages have strong impacts on other connec-
nection. For example, if two countries have deep tions. The results of a vector autoregressive (VAR)
trade links, they can improve their overall connec- model indicate that a 1 percent increase in migra-
tivity more by stimulating migration and FDI than tion (the sum of emigrant and immigrant stock) for
by continuing to intensify trade links. a given country is associated with a 0.25 percent
Between 2000 and 2010, countries in the ECA increase in future trade and a 0.2 percent increase
region increased their migration connectivity in ICT connectivity.
TABLE B2.4.2 Countries in Europe and Central Asia with highest and lowest connectivity
TABLE B2.4.1 Impact of connectivity on annual growth of income per capita (percent)
Combined Portfolio
Country connectivity Trade FDI Migration ICT Airline flows
Economic growth of Economic growth of
Type of connectivity
Countries with highest overall connectivity economy as a whole bottom 40 percent
Luxemburg
Multidimensional 1 2 1 0.67***
1 1 3 1.48***32
Ireland
Trade 2 3 5 0.61***
5 3 5 1.48**27
Netherlands 4
Foreign direct investment (FDI) 5 3 0.60***
18 14 12 0.8* 9
Belgium
Migration 5 4 4 70.34* 5 18 0.18 78
Switzerland
Airline 6 6 6 20.19* 2 6 0.11 7
Belarus 95 technology
Information and communications 75 (ICT) 103 420.12 98 106 0.21 99
FIGURE 2.11 Unemployment rates are higher for foreign-born than for native-born workers in most
countries in Europe and Central Asia
Sweden, 11.0
Belgium, 9.5
Finland, 8.8
Greece, 7.7
Spain, 7.7
France, 7.5
Austria, 6.7
Denmark, 5.9
Norway, 5.8
Netherlands, 5.1
Switzerland, 5.0
Luxembourg, 4.1
Poland, 4.0
Italy, 3.5
Slovenia, 3.4
Germany, 3.2
Estonia, 2.3
Portugal, 2.0
Czech Republic, 2.0
Ireland, 1.6
Turkey, 1.6
Iceland, 1.1
United Kingdom, 0.7
Canada, 0.7
Hungary, 0.6
Mexico, 0.5
Australia, 0.1
New Zealand, –0.5
United States, –0.8
Israel, –1.2
Slovak Republic, –3.5
–6 –4 –2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Percentage point difference between unemployment rates for foreign-born and native-born
FIGURE 2.12 Tertiary education rates in Europe and Central Asia are lower among the foreign-born than
the native-born population
70
Percent of population (30–34) with tertiary
60
educational attainment in 2016
50
40
30
20
10
0
e
ov ly
Cr ia
tia
un in
Po ary
m l
Ic ny
d
ec rl d
Re ds
Au lic
EU a
8
Tu a
Be ey
Cy m
Fr s
Es e
N nia
Sw ay
en
ite tze d
m m
Ire rg
De nd
La k
ia
Lu ing d
G ga
ar
ri
t
ec
c
an
Cz eth lan
Un wi lan
-2
n
Ita
en
tv
a
iu
xe do
al
u
b
pr
w
rk
a
h an
oa
an
st
ed
a
d rla
Sp
to
rtu
g
nm
bo
pu
lg
re
el
l
or
N Fin
S Po
er
G
e
Sl
Source: Eurostat.
Note: Data are for 2016.
Chapter 2: Migration and Mobility in Europe and Central Asia ● 39
TABLE 2.1 Selected social statistics for people born in the European Union and elsewhere
Mean annual income of people over 18 (thousands of euros) 15.4 19.0 3.6
Children at risk of poverty rate by birth place of parents (percent 37.6 19.0 18.6
of population below 18)
Source: Eurostat.
Note: Calculations are based on 2015 data, except for the unemployment rate, for which the latest available year is 2016.
40 ● World Bank ECA Economic Update October 2017
15
10 Spain
Belgium Austria Slovenia
Netherlands Denmark
Latvia 5 Lithuania Sweden
Czech Republic Finland
0
–30 –20 –10 0 United 10 20 30 40 50 60
Croatia –5 Kingdom
Poland
–10
Bulgaria Hungary
–15
–20
Source: Eurostat.
Russia Turkey
100 100
Legend:
80 80
1. Language skills training
60 60 2. Transfer of professional credentials
40 40 3. Protection against discrimination
20 20
0 0
1,3 3
Response categories
Source: World Population Policies Database, United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA) Population Division.
Note: Regions include all ECA countries (Table E.1) except Kosovo (part of the Western Balkans), for which data are not available. The bars represent the
share of country official responses to regional or country total that indicate the existence of policy or combination of policies aimed at integrating
immigrants into the host society. For instance, bar “1,3” in EU-13 means that two countries out of 13 (i.e., 15%) indicated that they provide migrants
with language skills training and protection against discrimination as measures for integration of immigrants in their community. Russia also
indicated having both of these programs for migrants.
FIGURE 2.15 Many countries in Europe and Central Asia depend on remittances
Ratio of remittances to
international reserves
35 250
30 28.0
25 200
Percent
20 150 125
15 13.9 91
12.0 100 74 65
9.6 9.0 8.7 56 50
10 7.2 38 35 33
3.9 3.6 50
5
0 0
an
ia
ia
ia
an
ia
an
ic
vo
ia
va
ia
H osn ne
go nd
Al a
a
pu gyz
Ta lic
ni
ni
in
gr
gr
bl
en
rg
rb
ar
en
rg
do
so
ist
st
ist
vi
i
ze a a
ba
ba
ra
ra
b
ne
ne
pu
Re Kyr
lg
eo
Se
eo
ki
m
m
jik
jik
Ko
ol
Uk
Uk
Al
Bu
er i
be
te
te
Re
Ar
Ar
G
G
M
Ta
on
on
Uz
B
y
M
M
rg
Ky
Sources: World Economic Outlook and International Financial Statistics databases (International Monetary Fund), World Development Indicators
(World Bank) database. World Bank 2017b.
Note: Estimates of remittances and GDP are for 2017. International reserves data are as of the second quarter of 2017.
FIGURE 2.16 Nearly all EU‐13 countries have developed policies to encourage the return of their citizens
100
90
80
70
Percent of total
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2005 2015 2005 2015 2005 2015 2005 2015 2005 2015 2005 2015 2005 2015 2005 2015
EU15 EU13 Western South Central Asia Other Eastern Russia Turkey
Balkans Caucasus Europe
Source: World Population Policies Database, United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA) Population Division.
Note: Bars represent the share of country official responses to regional or country total that indicate whether the government has adopted any
policies or programs to encourage the return of its citizens living abroad. Regions include all ECA countries (Table E.1) except Kosovo (part of the
Western Balkans) for both years and Denmark, Finland, and Sweden (all part of EU-15) for 2005, for which data were not available.
Chapter 2: Migration and Mobility in Europe and Central Asia ● 43
negative emotional and social impacts but no clear evidence of negative impacts
on health, nutrition, and education. Gassmann and others (2013) find that migra-
tion of a household member does not play a significant role in the well-being of
the children in the household. Research on Romania indicates that the net impact
of emigration on the education of children left behind is positive (Saurav 2017a).
Allowing migrants to move freely back and forth would help them cater to the
demands of their children left behind and improve their educational outcomes.
Migration and remittances affect the employment of spouses left behind. Most
research finds a negative impact on paid labor supply outside the home, because
remittances raise the reservation wage of household members left behind and the
emigration of a spouse increases the need for more unpaid work in the household
(Antman 2013). Remittance-receiving households in Armenia reduce their hours
of work (Grigorian and Melkonyan 2011). Estimates for Albania show that hav-
ing a migrant abroad decreases the wife’s paid labor supply and increases unpaid
work (Mendola and Carletto 2012). Remittances and migrant savings can also
provide capital for starting a business. Women whose husbands returned are
significantly more likely to engage in self-employment and less likely to supply
unpaid work (Mendola and Carletto 2012). Results for Romania indicate that left-
behind spouses whose husbands were absent for a year or more were six times
more likely to engage in entrepreneurial activity than women in nonmigrant
households (Saurav 2017b). Norms in the migrants’ countries of destination can
affect gender norms at home, creating more or less gender equality and auton-
omy of the women left behind, depending on the destination (Fleury 2016).
Migration also affects elderly parents left behind. Parents may benefit from
more financial support through remittances. Migrant children will not be able to
personally help and care for them, however, and may not be able to visit them.
This aspect of the impact of migration on families left behind is often overlooked;
more research on the topic is needed, especially in ECA, given its aging popula-
tion (Antman 2013). Governments in ECA need to build up social safety systems
that take account of the fact that not all parents will be able to rely on their chil-
dren for support in old-age.
Conclusion
Migration has played a key role in resolving economic and political problems in
the ECA region for centuries. Maintaining supportive policies toward migration
would make a critical contribution to prosperity in the region. Although dealing
with the refugee crisis is understandably a central focus of national policy mak-
ers, a broader, longer-term perspective is critical to reaping the gains from migra-
tion. Measures to increase the integration of migrants in destination countries
and greater support for families left behind in origin countries would improve
equity and productivity. Increasing the flexibility of labor market institutions and
improving skills would help promote employment; increasing the portability of
benefits and improving income security could reduce fears over the economic
impact of immigrants on native workers. Reaching international agreement on a
multilateral framework for migration could enhance the benefits of migration for
origin countries, destination countries, and migrants.
Chapter 2: Migration and Mobility in Europe and Central Asia ● 47
This annex clarifies data availability for selected graphs in the Chapter II.
Europe and Central Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Bosnia Belgium, France,
Asia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Montenegro,
Republic, Estonia, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Netherlands, Slovak
Hungary, Italy, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Republic, Spain,
Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Moldova, Romania, Turkmenistan
Russian Federation, Serbia and, Kosovo,
Slovenia, Tajikistan, the former Yugoslav
Republic of Macedonia, Turkey, Ukraine, the
United Kingdom, Uzbekistan
Middle East and Algeria; Bahrain; Djibouti; Egypt; Iran, Islamic Oman, United Arab
North Africa Rep. Iraq; Israel; Jordan; Kuwait; Lebanon; Libya; Emirates, Western
Morocco; West Bank and Gaza; Saudi Arabia; Sahara
Syrian Arab Republic; Tunisia; Yemen
Sub-Saharan Africa Angola, Benin, Botswana, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Côte d’Ivoire and Central African
Cabo Verde, Cameroon, Chad, Comoros, Sao Tome and Republic, Lesotho,
Congo, Dem. Rep. of the Congo, Equatorial Principe. Malawi, Mauritius,
Guinea, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Gabon, The Gambia, South Sudan, Swaziland,
Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Kenya, Liberia, Zambia
Madagascar, Mali, Mauritania, Mozambique,
Namibia, Niger, Nigeria, Rwanda, , Senegal,
Seychelles, Sierra Leone, Somalia, South Africa,
Sudan, Togo, Uganda, Tanzania, Zimbabwe
Other/ Unknown Argentina; Barbados; Bolivia; Brazil; Cambodia; French Guiana Fiji, Grenada, Jamaica,
Canada; Chile; China; Colombia; Costa Rica; Japan, Democratic
Cuba; Dominica; Dominican Republic; Ecuador; People’s Rep. of Korea,
El Salvador; Guatemala; Guyana; Haiti; Hong Mexico, New Zealand,
Kong SAR, China; Honduras; Indonesia; Lao St. Kitts and Nevis, Saint
PDR; Malaysia; Mongolia; Myanmar; Nicaragua; Lucia, St. Vincent and
Panama; Paraguay; Peru; Philippines; Korea the Grenadines
Rep.; Singapore; Stateless; Suriname; Thailand;
Trinidad and Tobago; United States; Uruguay;
Venezuela, RB; Vietnam
48 ● World Bank ECA Economic Update October 2017
Grouping Countries
ECA-OECD Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland,
Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Spain, Sweden, Turkey, United
Kingdom
Other Australia, Canada, Japan, Mexico, New Zealand, Norway, Switzerland, United States
2004 and 2014 Liechtenstein, Switzerland (both non-ECA European countries), Albania, Armenia, Austria, Belarus,
Belgium, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary,
Ireland, Italy, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Poland,
Portugal, Republic of Moldova, Romania, Russian Federation, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Sweden,
Tajikistan, former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Turkey, and United Kingdom.
2004 only Iceland (a non-ECA European country), Georgia, Greece, and Spain
2014 only Azerbaijan, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Luxembourg, Serbia, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and
Uzbekistan.
2004 and 2014 Afghanistan; Albania; Algeria; Andorra; Angola; Anguilla; Antigua and Barbuda; Argentina; Armenia;
Aruba; Australia; Austria; Azerbaijan; Bahamas; Bahrain; Bangladesh; Barbados; Belarus; Belgium;
Belize; Benin; Bermuda; Bhutan; Bolivia; Bosnia and Herzegovina; Botswana; Brazil; British Virgin
Islands; Brunei Darussalam; Bulgaria; Burkina Faso; Burundi; Cambodia; Cameroon; Canada; Cabo
Verde; Cayman Islands; Central African Republic; Chad; Chile; China; Hong Kong SAR, China;
Colombia; Comoros; Congo, Dem. Rep; Congo, Rep.; Costa Rica; Côte d’Ivoire; Croatia; Cuba;
Cyprus; Czech Republic; Denmark; Djibouti; Dominica; Dominican Republic; Ecuador; Egypt, Arab
Rep.; El Salvador; Equatorial Guinea; Eritrea; Estonia; Ethiopia; Fiji; Finland; France; Gabon; The
Gambia; Georgia; Germany; Ghana; Gibraltar; Greece; Grenada; Guatemala; Guinea; Guinea-
Bissau; Guyana; Haiti; Holy See; Honduras; Hungary; Iceland; India; Indonesia; Iraq; Ireland; Iran,
Islamic Rep; Israel; Italy; Jamaica; Japan; Jordan; Kazakhstan; Kenya; Kiribati; Korea, Dem. People’s
Rep.; Korea, Rep.; Kuwait; Kyrgyz Republic; Lao PDR; Latvia; Lebanon; Lesotho; Liberia; Libya;
Liechtenstein; Lithuania; Luxembourg; Macao SAR, China; Macedonia, FYR; Madagascar; Malawi;
Malaysia; Maldives; Mali; Malta; Mauritania; Mauritius; Mexico; Micronesia, Fed. Sts.; Monaco;
Mongolia; Montserrat; Morocco; Mozambique; Myanmar; Namibia; Nauru; Nepal; Netherlands; New
Zealand; Nicaragua; Niger; Nigeria; Norway; Oman; Pakistan; West Bank and Gaza; Panama; Papua
New Guinea; Paraguay; Peru; Philippines; Poland; Portugal; Qatar; Republic of Moldova; Romania;
Russian Federation; Rwanda; St. Kitts and Nevis; St. Lucia; St. Vincent and the Grenadines; Samoa;
San Marino; Sao Tome and Principe; Saudi Arabia; Senegal; Serbia; Seychelles; Sierra Leone; Slovak
Republic; Slovenia; Solomon Islands; Somalia; South Africa; Spain; Sri Lanka; Sudan; Suriname;
Swaziland; Sweden; Switzerland; Syrian Arab Republic; Tajikistan; Tanzania; Thailand; Timor-Leste;
Togo; Tonga; Trinidad and Tobago; Tunisia; Turkey; Turkmenistan; Turks and Caicos Islands; Tuvalu;
Uganda; Ukraine; United Arab Emirates; United Kingdom; United States; Uruguay; Uzbekistan;
Vanuatu; Venezuela, RB; Vietnam; Yemen; Zambia; and Zimbabwe.
2004 only Marshall Islands; Netherlands Antilles; Cook Islands; Montenegro; Niue; Palau; and South Sudan.
Chapter 2: Migration and Mobility in Europe and Central Asia ● 49
Region Economies
East Asia and Pacific Australia; Brunei Darussalam; China; Hong Kong SAR, China; Japan; Korea, Rep.; Lao
PDR; Macao SAR, China; Malaysia; Mongolia; New Zealand; Thailand; Vietnam
Europe and Central Asia Albania, Armenia, Austria, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina,
Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany,
Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania,
Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Moldova, Romania,
Russian Federation, Serbia, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Sweden, Switzerland, Tajikistan,
former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia
Latin America and the Aruba, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Honduras, St.
Caribbean Kitts and Nevis, St. Lucia, Sint Maarten (Dutch part)
Middle East and North Africa Bahrain; Egypt, Arab Rep.; Iran, Islamic Rep.; Israel; Morocco; Oman; Qatar; Saudi
Arabia; United Arab Emirates
Sub-Saharan Africa Botswana, Burundi, Cape Verde, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Lesotho, Madagascar, Mauritius,
Mozambique, Namibia, Rwanda, South Africa
Notes
1. Respondents were asked to indicate whether each of the following was a “good thing,”
a “bad thing,” or “it depends”: (a) immigrants living in this country, (b) an immigrant
becoming your neighbor, and (c) an immigrant marrying one of your close relatives. See
http://www.gallup.com/poll/216377/new-index-shows-least-accepting-countries-
migrants.aspx?g_source=mn2-us.
2. The survey defined Europe as the European Union, the Western Balkans, Russia, Belar-
us, Moldova, Ukraine, Norway, and Switzerland.
3. This estimate was calculated by dividing the refugee and asylum seeker stock in 2016 by
the migrant stock in 2015, except for Turkey, for which the migrant stock for 2016 was
estimated using the following formula: migrant stock 2015 plus refugee flow in 2016
minus number of returnees in 2016. Data on asylum seekers are not available for years
before 2000. Migrant stock data are available only for 1995 (not 1993) and 2015 (not 2016).
Data on refugees and asylum seekers is from UNHCR, data on migrant stocks is from
UNDESA.
4. The number of “illegal border crossings” recorded by Frontex (the European Border and
Coast Guard Agency) may differ from the number of people crossing the border, because
some people cross several times. The number of border crossings also differs from the
number of asylum applicants. Not everyone who enters illegally is recorded, not every-
one who enters illegally requests asylum, and not everyone who requests asylum enters
illegally (for example, Serbs do not require a visa to enter the European Union).
5. Temporary migrants are defined as foreign-born residents who have been in the host
country for less than five years. They could stay longer.
6. If these countries have more stringent policies for low-skilled immigrants than the tradi-
tional destination countries, the relatively strong position of foreign-born workers may
reflect their higher qualifications. For instance, in 2016 Bulgaria relaxed work-permit
rules for high-skilled non-EU workers; it maintains strict work permit requirements for
other workers.
7. For the definitions for MIPEX indicators, see http://www.mipex.eu/sites/default/files/
downloads/Definitions_of_Who_Benefits_Outcome_and_Beneficiaries_Indicators.pdf.
8. This figure includes costs related to trade and commuters (as a result of longer waiting
times at the border) and actual border controls.
9. The early 1950s saw the adoption of the 1951 Geneva Convention Relating to the Status
of Refugees, a creation of the office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refu-
gees (UNHCR) to provide humanitarian protection for refugees, and the founding of the
International Organization for Migration (IOM), with a mandate to identify resettlement
countries and arrange transport. (The IOM was established in 1951 as the Provisional
Intergovernmental Committee for the Movement of Migrants from Europe [PICMME].
Its name went through a succession of changes.)
10. Analysis of the World Bank Group’s activities and consultations with partners and stake-
holders suggest that it and other international financial institutions could contribute to
the global migration agenda in four areas: (a) financing migration programs, (b) address-
ing fundamental drivers of migration, (c) maximizing the benefits and managing the
risks of migration in sending and receiving countries, and (d) providing knowledge for
informed policy making and improving public perceptions (World Bank 2016).
Chapter 2: Migration and Mobility in Europe and Central Asia ● 51
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PART
II
Selected Country Pages
Selected Country Pages ● 59
FIGURE 1 Albania / Real GDP growth and contributions to FIGURE 2 Albania / Actual and projected poverty rates and
real GDP growth real private consumption per capita
Percent Poverty rate (%) Private consumption per capita (constant LCU)
15 60 250000
10 50
200000
5 40
150000
0 30
100000
20
-5
50000
10
-10
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
0 0
Private Consumption Government Consumption
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Gross Fixed Investment Change in inventories
Exports, GNFS Imports, GNFS International poverty rate Lower middle-income pov. rate
GDP growth Upper middle-income pov. rate Consumption pc
Sources: World Bank, Macroeconomics and Fiscal Management Global Practice, Source: World Bank. Notes: see table 2.
and Poverty Global Practice.
MPO 40 Oct 17
60 ● World Bank ECA Economic Update October 2017
TABLE 2 Albania / Macro poverty outlook indicators (annual percent change unless indicated otherwise)
So urces: Wo rld B ank, M acro eco no mics and Fiscal M anagement Glo bal P ractice, and P o verty and Equity Glo bal P ractice.
No tes: e=estimate, f = fo recast.
(a) Calculatio ns based o n ECA P OV harmo nizatio n, using 2012-LSM S. No wcast: 2014 - 2016. Fo recast are fro m 2017 to 2019.
(b) P ro jectio n using neutral distributio n (2012)�
with pass-thro ugh = 0.87 based o n private co nsumptio n per capita in co nstant LCU.
MPO 41 Oct 17
Selected Country Pages ● 61
FIGURE 1 Armenia / Real GDP growth and contributions to FIGURE 2 Armenia / Actual and projected poverty rates and
real GDP growth real private consumption per capita
Percent, percentage points Poverty rate (%) Private consumption per capita (constant LCU)
25 100 700000
20
600000
15 80
500000
10
60 400000
5
0 40 300000
-5 200000
-10 20
Gov. cons. Exports 100000
-15 GFCF Inventories
Private cons. Imports 0 0
-20 Statistical disc. GDP 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
-25 International poverty rate Lower middle-income pov. rate
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Upper middle-income pov. rate Consumption pc
MPO 42 Oct 17
62 ● World Bank ECA Economic Update October 2017
TABLE 2 Armenia / Macro poverty outlook indicators (annual percent change unless indicated otherwise)
So urces: Wo rld B ank, M acro eco no mics and Fiscal M anagement Glo bal P ractice, and P o verty and Equity Glo bal P ractice.
No tes: e=estimate, f = fo recast.
(a) Calculatio ns based o n ECA P OV harmo nizatio n, using 2015-ILCS. A ctual data: 2014, 2015. No wcast: 2016 - 2016. Fo recast are fro m 2017 to 2019.
(b) P ro jectio n using neutral distributio n (2015)�
with pass-thro ugh = 0.7 based o n private co nsumptio n per capita in co nstant LCU.
MPO 43 Oct 17
Selected Country Pages ● 63
FIGURE 1 Azerbaijan / Real GDP growth and contributions FIGURE 2 Azerbaijan / Official poverty rate
to real GDP growth
20
0.0
10
-5.0
0
-10.0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016e 2017p 2018p 2019p
Sources: State Statistical Committee. Sources: Source: State Statistical Committee calculations.
MPO 44 Oct 17
64 ● World Bank ECA Economic Update October 2017
Social conditions continue to be a major ernment increased the gasoline prices, and alleviation in a short term. A large number
source of concern, although poverty is rela- food prices are expected to rise by the end of households remain vulnerable to falling
tively low in Azerbaijan (4.9 percent meas- of 2017 due to seasonal factors. back into poverty. The reduction in public
ured at the national poverty line in 2015). The economy would expand from 2018 investment and consumption in 2016 may
Nominal wage growth of 5 percent in the onwards, supported by the acceleration of reduce household welfare through de-
first half of 2017 was not sufficient to com- oil GDP as the Shah Deniz gas field - one of creasing employment, especially for those
pensate for higher prices. Households con- the largest gas fields in the world - begins employed in the construction sector.
tinue to experience a decline of their real production. Non-oil output will continue
purchasing power, especially for imported to grow at a slow pace due to limited credit
consumption items such as food, which
undermines future poverty reduction.
growth and weak business environment.
The Government revised the 2017 budget,
Risks and challenges
increasing expenditure against improved
revenue prospects. The bulk of the spend- The economic recovery is expected to be
Outlook ing increase will be used to capitalize the
Azerbaijan Deposit Insurance Fund with
fragile, threatened by a number of risks.
The immediate challenge for the govern-
AZN 500 million. However, the imple- ment is to safeguard macroeconomic sta-
Azerbaijan’s economy is projected to con- mentation of some public investment pro- bility to support economic recovery and
tract by 1.4 percent in 2017, despite the grams may be delayed. The consolidated poverty reduction. This includes ensuring
increase in oil prices. Oil production will fiscal balance is projected to reach a sur- the banking sector stabilization and re-
remain muted while the recovery of the plus of 4.6 percent of GDP, whereas non- sumption of credit growth to support pri-
non-oil economy is unlikely to offset this oil deficit is expected to be 16 percent of vate sector development. Going forward,
effect throughout the remaining year giv- GDP in 2017. another challenge is to improve business
en the modest planned budget and ongo- Despite increased social spending, recent environment and government transparen-
ing banking sector distress. Inflationary developments and a slow recovery of the cy to enable the further diversification of
pressures are likely to persist as the Gov- private sector are not conducive to poverty the non-oil economy.
TABLE 2 Azerbaijan / Macro poverty outlook indicators (annual percent change unless indicated otherwise)
So urces: Wo rld B ank, M acro eco no mics and Fiscal M anagement Glo bal P ractice, and P o verty and Equity Glo bal P ractice.
No tes: e=estimate, f = fo recast.
MPO 45 Oct 17
Selected Country Pages ● 65
FIGURE 1 Belarus / Real GDP growth and contributions to FIGURE 2 Belarus / Actual and projected poverty rates and
real GDP growth real GDP per capita
Percentage points Poverty rate (%) GDP per capita (constant LCU)
15 70 2500000
10 60
5 2000000
50
0
40 1500000
-5
-10 30 1000000
-15
20
Q1/14
Q2/14
Q3/14
Q4/14
Q1/15
Q2/15
Q3/15
Q1/16
Q2/16
Q3/16
Q4/16
Q1/17
Q4/15
500000
10
Total consumption of goods and services
Gross capital formation 0 0
Exports of goods and services 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Imports of goods and services
Statistical discrepancy Upper middle-income pov. rate GDP pc
GDP growth
Sources: World Bank Staff Calculations based on Belstat data. Source: World Bank. Notes: see table 2.
MPO 46 Oct 17
66 ● World Bank ECA Economic Update October 2017
this year. In January-June, the current better targeted social protection and un- sector and to strengthen social safety-nets
account deficit amounted to 2.5 percent of employment assistance systems. to protect the most vulnerable social
GDP (vs. 7.1 percent a year ago) driven by Despite growth of real wages in the econ- groups during the transformation. While
primary income deficit. Gross internation- omy and nominal increase of wages in the today there is a broad consensus as to this
al reserves totaled almost US$ 7 billion, up budget sector by 6.5 percent from Septem- direction of change among policy makers,
by 42 percent (covering 2.5 months of im- ber 1, the moderate poverty rate (PPP there are diverging views about the pace
ports of goods and services). Net interna- US$5/day) is projected to remain stable of this reform path. The latest agreement
tional investment position is negative and during 2017-2018 due to very slow recov- with Russia has relieved immediate exter-
totals US$ 42 billion as of July 1, 2017 ac- ery of household incomes as the Govern- nal financing pressures for the economy,
counting for 81.7 percent of GDP.. ment increases household utility tariffs by creating a risk of slowing—and in some
8 percent from September 1. Another rise areas reversing—reform momentum.
by 10 percent is planned from December 1 Nevertheless, large external financing
Outlook to reach full cost-recovery level on all util-
ities except for heating by beginning of
needs and high external imbalances con-
tinue to pose a risk of adjustment in exter-
2018. Moreover, tariffs growth would nal imbalances. In addition, there is a sig-
Despite a tentative recovery in 2017, in the require more robust mitigation measures nificant risk of a disorderly unwinding of
medium term economic growth is ex- by improving the targeting of existing financial sector imbalances unless mecha-
pected to remain weak as structural bottle- household utility subsidy program. Labor nisms for addressing insolvent SOEs and
necks persist and domestic demand re- market conditions will remain tight as still NPL resolution are not put in place.
mains subdued. Improved external condi- weak financial situation and accumulated Government’s direct levers to control the
tions are expected to remain in place, sup- debts will prevent enterprises from in- economy remain significant, therefore,
porting moderate growth of 1.8 percent creasing employment. there is a risk that recently announced
year-on-year in 2017 and 2.1 percent in policy goals of reaching the average wage
2018. Moderate growth will ease trade of US$500 by end of 2017 and even higher
deficit pressures on the balance of pay-
ments, thus helping to maintain a current
Risks and challenges by 2018 would exacerbate internal and
external imbalances. More importantly,
account deficit below 4 percent of GDP the re-introduction of short-term demand
over the forecast period. The major struc- Going forward, the major challenge for management measures to support growth
tural bottlenecks – holding back stronger Belarus is to avoid falling into a low- would signal a significant reversal of pru-
and sustainable economic recovery – in- growth trajectory. To escape that destiny, dent macro policy stance Belarus main-
clude SOE restructuring and mitigation of it is critical to expand the size of the pri- tained over the last two years.
related fiscal risks, NPL resolution, and vate sector, to reduce the size of the SOE
TABLE 2 Belarus / Macro poverty outlook indicators (annual percent change unless indicated otherwise)
So urces: Wo rld B ank, M acro eco no mics and Fiscal M anagement Glo bal P ractice, and P o verty and Equity Glo bal P ractice.
No tes: f = fo recast.
(a) Calculatio ns based o n 2016-HHS. A ctual data: 2014 - 2016. Fo recast are fro m 2017 to 2019.
(b) P ro jectio n using neutral distributio n (2016) with pass-thro ugh = 0.7 based o n GDP per capita in co nstant LCU.
MPO 47 Oct 17
Selected Country Pages ● 67
FIGURE 1 Bosnia and Herzegovina / Real GDP growth and FIGURE 2 Bosnia and Herzegovina / Labor market indica-
contributions to real GDP growth tors, 2014-2017
Sources: BiH Agency for Statistics (BHAS), World Bank staff estimates. Sources: LFS 2014-2017 report, World Bank staff calculations.
MPO 48 Oct 17
68 ● World Bank ECA Economic Update October 2017
levels by 2037 and close the gap with oth- the substantial remaining slack in the labor Political uncertainties that could hold back
er transition economies that are already market, poverty is projected to decline at a the reform agenda are the highest risk for
part of the EU. slow pace over the next couple of years. the medium-term outlook. The lack of
While preparations for submitting official The current account deficit is forecast to agreement among statistical agencies
documents as the next step in EU acces- widen in the short run to medium term about the final Census 2013 results may
sion process exert some positive pressure due to stronger demand for imports and affect negatively welfare monitoring qual-
on investment sentiment, moderate consumers’ preference to imported goods. ity, by forcing the statistical offices to con-
growth is projected in the medium-term Overall, in the medium term both fiscal tinue using an outdated sampling frame.
due to slow improvements in the business and external deficits will persist until 2019 Upside risks include stronger growth in
environment, delays in the construction of when a balanced budget is expected to be the EU in 2017.
corridor Vc and projects in the energy and helped by progress with ongoing structur- Still continued progress on the reform
tourism sectors, as well as uncertainty al reform agenda and an ambitious fiscal agenda is evident as the country is com-
about tax reform implementation. adjustment. Fiscal consolidation will not pleting a detailed Questionnaire from
As poverty is strongly associated with un- be effective if structural rigidities on the the European Commission on which its
employment and inactivity in BiH, for eco- expenditure side are not addressed, espe- readiness for the EU candidate status
nomic growth to translate into poverty cially the large public wage bill and sizea- will be evaluated.
reduction, improvements in labor market ble and poorly targeted social assistance.
participation and employment will remain
key. The implementation of new labor laws
in both BiH Federation and Republika
Srpska, and the introduction of support
Risks and challenges
schemes for first-time job seekers, are ex-
pected to support improved employment Although deficits remain relatively mod-
outcomes in 2018. However, as unemploy- erate, the fiscal sector is still characterized
ment remains high, and since real wages by a high tax burden and inefficient
are expected to remain largely flat due to patterns of spending.
TABLE 2 Bosnia and Herzegovina / Macro poverty outlook indicators (annual percent change unless indicated otherwise)
So urces: Wo rld B ank, M acro eco no mics and Fiscal M anagement Glo bal P ractice, and P o verty and Equity Glo bal P ractice.
No tes: e=estimate, f = fo recast.
MPO 49 Oct 17
Selected Country Pages ● 69
BULGARIA Recent developments the EU, with the income of the richest 20
percent of the population equal to almost
eight times that of the poorest 20 percent in
Stronger domestic demand contributed to 2015. The coverage and adequacy of the
stronger real GDP growth, which rose social transfer system remains low. Unem-
Table 1 2016 from 3.4 percent in 2016 to 3.9 percent year ployment has declined significantly but
P o pulatio n, millio n 7.1 -on-year in the first quarter of 2017 and to regional variations and long-term and
GDP , current US$ billio n 52.4 4.2 percent in the second. Private con- youth unemployment remain high. Inactiv-
GDP per capita, current US$ 7353
sumption continued to improve because of ity among certain groups of the population
a rising incomes, employment and credit. persists and many citizens – including the
Lo wer middle-inco me po verty rate ($ 3.2) 3.8
a
Real private sector wages increased by elderly, people living in rural areas, and
Upper middle-inco me po verty rate ($ 5.5) 8.7
a
about 9 percent year-on-year in the first the Roma -- are excluded from economic
Gini co efficient 37.4
half of 2017, driven by strong demand in opportunities. Tapping into this unused
b
Scho o l enro llment, primary (% gro ss) 99.1 industry and services, widening shortages pool of labor is crucial for growth in Bul-
b
Life expectancy at birth, years 74.5 of labor, and rising minimum wage. Un- garia, which is undergoing the steepest
Source: WDI, M acro Poverty Outlook, and official data. employment declined to an eight-year low decline in population in the world.
Notes: of 5.9 percent of the labor force in July Fiscal accounts continued to be in surplus
(a) M ost recent value (2014), 2011 PPPs.
(b) M ost recent WDI value (2014) 2017. New jobs were created in sectors that in the first half of 2017 despite a slight
contribute most to economic growth: in- decline in revenues. Tax revenues and
dustry, trade, transport, tourism, ITC; and social contributions grew by about 8 per-
real estate. While job creation in construc- cent year-on-year because of improved
tion remained subdued, construction activ- economic activity and the increase of the
ity picked up significantly as a result of a pension contribution rate. Non-tax reve-
vibrant real estate market and advanced nues, however, were weaker than a year
implementation of EU funded projects. earlier due to lower grants from the EU.
Bulgaria’s economic recovery gathered
Investment shifted to robust growth this The external current account surplus nar-
speed in 2017 supported by improved year from a large decline in 2016 and pro- rowed in the first half of 2017 compared to
domestic demand. Poverty declined. Fur- vided solid contribution to overall growth, a year earlier, as the trade deficit expand-
ther gains in growth, poverty reduction offsetting the narrowing contribution of ed. Stronger imports were driven by high-
and shared prosperity would hinge on net exports. Exports expanded at a robust er demand for consumption and invest-
rate, supported by strong demand from ments goods and the increase in oil prices.
strengthening institutions, boosting the the EU, but imports grew even faster.
skills and employability of the labor force, Improvements in labor market conditions
and improving the effectiveness and effi-
ciency of public spending.
and income growth supported further pov-
erty reduction. Poverty measured using the
Outlook
Upper Middle Income Class line of $5.5 per
day (in 2011 PPP terms) is estimated to Prospects for 2017 are better than initially
have declined from 8.5 percent in 2015 to expected, with GDP projected to grow at
7.9 percent in 2016. However, income ine- 3.8 percent as robust domestic demand
FIGURE 1 Bulgaria / Real GDP growth and contributions to FIGURE 2 Bulgaria / Actual and projected poverty rates and
real GDP growth real GDP per capita
Percent, percentage points Poverty rate (%) GDP per capita (constant LCU)
10 25 16000
14000
5 20
12000
0 15 10000
8000
-5 10 6000
4000
-10 5
2000
-15 0 0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Consumption Gross capital formation International poverty rate Lower middle-income pov. rate
Net Exports GDP Upper middle-income pov. rate GDP pc
Sources: NSI and World Bank staff estimates. Sources: World Bank. Notes: see Table 2.
MPO 50 Oct 17
70 ● World Bank ECA Economic Update October 2017
outweighs the diminishing contribution of commodity prices. Import growth is ex- ing convergence would require improve-
net exports. Household consumption is pected to be driven by higher oil prices ments in productivity and labor force par-
likely to continue expanding on the back and strengthening domestic demand for ticipation. Bulgaria will need to raise
of further improvements in labor market consumer and investment goods. productivity growth to at least 4 percent
and credit conditions. Investment is likely The fiscal position is likely to weaken per year to reach the average EU income
to remain strong in the second half of the slightly in 2017 compared to 2016 but im- levels within a generation, as per Produc-
year. Going forward, GDP is projected to prove in the medium term. In 2017, the tivity in Bulgaria, a World Bank report.
pick up to 4 percent in 2019. Strong con- deficit is likely to amount to 0.6 percent of This compares with annual average
sumption and, increasingly, investment GDP (based on ESA 2010 methodology), productivity growth of 2.5 percent per
are likely to be the key driver in the medi- reflecting the increases in pensions in July year over the last six years while improve-
um term. Export growth is likely to re- and a faster pace of implementation of EU ments in labor force participation were
main robust, albeit slowing down some- funded capital projects. Strong revenue constrained by skill shortages. A large
what in line with expected deceleration of collection driven by further improvements portion of the population is at risk of pov-
economic activity in the Eurozone com- in compliance and an increased pension erty or social inclusion.
pared to 2017. contribution rate is likely to support fiscal Enhancing productivity growth would
Poverty reduction is expected to continue consolidation in the medium term. Lim- require addressing governance challenges
at a modest pace in the near term. Contin- ited improvements in spending efficiency (public administration, judiciary, govern-
ued improvements in employment and of select sectors could undermine fiscal ance of SOEs), that have undermined Bul-
wages, as well as scheduled increases in consolidation plans going forward and garia’s structural transformation. Enhanc-
pensions, should support real incomes limit the potential of public spending to ing the skills and employability of all Bul-
and therefore further reductions in pov- enhance growth. garians is also needed. The effectiveness
erty. Poverty is projected to fall to 7.6 per- and efficiency of public spending on
cent in 2017, as measured at $5.5 a day in health, pensions and long-term care also
2011 PPP, to 7.1 percent in 2018, and to 6.7
percent in 2019.
Risks and challenges needs to be improved to ensure inclusive-
ness and sustainability of growth in the
The external current account is expected to face of demographic changes
continue to be in surplus, although declin- The key challenge for Bulgaria is to accel-
ing by 2019. Export growth is projected to erate convergence with the rest of the EU
be robust, in line with Bulgaria’s improved and deal with the negative consequences
competitiveness in EU markets and higher of its demographic transition. Accelerat-
TABLE 2 Bulgaria / Macro poverty outlook indicators (annual percent change unless indicated otherwise)
So urces: Wo rld B ank, M acro eco no mics and Fiscal M anagement Glo bal P ractice, and P o verty and Equity Glo bal P ractice, NSI, B NB , and Euro stat.
No tes: e=estimate, f = fo recast.
(a) Calculatio ns based o n EU-SILC harmo nizatio n, using 2014-EU-SILC. A ctual data: 2014. No wcast: 2015 - 2016. Fo recast are fro m 2017 to 2019.
(b) P ro jectio n using neutral distributio n (2014)�
with pass-thro ugh = 0.87 based o n GDP per capita in co nstant LCU.
MPO 51 Oct 17
Selected Country Pages ● 71
FIGURE 1 Croatia / Real GDP growth and contributions to FIGURE 2 Croatia / Actual and projected poverty rates and
real GDP growth real consumption per capita
Percent, percentage points Poverty rate (%) Private consumption per capita (constant LCU)
4 8 52000
7 50000
2
6
48000
0 5
46000
4
-2 44000
3
-4 42000
2
1 40000
-6
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017f 2018f 2019f 0 38000
Final consumption Gross fixed capital formation 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Change in inventories Net exports International poverty rate Lower middle-income pov. rate
Residual item GDP growth Upper middle-income pov. rate Consumption pc
Sources: CROSTAT, World Bank. Sources: World Bank (see notes to Table 2).
MPO 52 Oct 17
72 ● World Bank ECA Economic Update October 2017
lead to a further gradual public debt de- Additionally, risks include: still high
Outlook cline to 76.4 percent of GDP in 2019.
Positive labor market developments, with
levels of private sector indebtedness, an
ongoing pre-bankruptcy proceeding of
ILO-unemployment rate falling below 10 the largest firm Agrokor, and the possi-
Growth is expected to remain at 2.9 per- percent by 2019, are expected to support bility of a further rise in the risk premi-
cent in 2017, and keep the momentum growth of disposable income for all seg- um for emerging markets. The country
thereafter standing on average at 2.7 per- ments of the welfare distribution. The must refinance around 11 percent of GDP
cent in 2018-19, led by personal consump- continued recovery of the economy, in- of public and guaranteed debt a year in
tion and exports led by strong tourist per- cluding a decline of the share of long-term 2017-19. The country’s credit rating re-
formance. Personal consumption is ex- unemployed and NEETs, supports the mained speculative albeit the outlook
pected to remain robust reflecting fiscal decline of unemployment and it is ex- improved to stable, suggesting that accel-
easing, labor market recovery, and in- pected that the absolute poverty rate eration of the pace of consolidation and
creased consumer confidence. Export of measured at the US$5.5 at PPP 2011 will structural reforms (of business environ-
goods is key in supporting growth, as decline further to 4.9 percent in 2019. ment, regulatory reforms) could lead to a
firms further integrate in the EU market rating improvement.
and external demand from main trading Job creation will be key to achieving a
partners strengthens. Investments will
intensify benefitting from the EU funds
Risks and challenges sustainable reduction in absolute poverty.
During the most recent economic recov-
absorption, especially public investment ery, total employment continued to de-
in infrastructure. Downside risks have moderated. Alt- cline and employment rates remained at a
The fiscal deficit is expected to increase to hough fiscal outcomes are better than very low level (compared to other EU
1.3 percent in 2017 as fiscal easing with tax expected, new fiscal expansion and do- countries). High out-migration in combi-
reliefs and spending relaxation material- mestic policy uncertainty adds to the risks nation with early exit out of the labor
ize. Spurred by growth, public deficit of slowing down the pace of structural force reduced the size of the labor force,
should decline afterwards to an average reforms and achieving sustainability of raising further concerns over pension and
1.0 percent in 2018-2019, which would public debt. health system sustainability.
TABLE 2 Croatia / Macro poverty outlook indicators (annual percent change unless indicated otherwise)
So urces: Wo rld B ank, M acro eco no mics and Fiscal M anagement Glo bal P ractice, and P o verty and Equity Glo bal P ractice.
No tes: e=estimate, f = fo recast.
(a) Calculatio ns based o n EUSILC harmo nizatio n, using 2014-EU-SILC. A ctual data: 2014. No wcast: 2015 - 2016. Fo recast are fro m 2017 to 2019.
(b) P ro jectio n using neutral distributio n (2014)�
with pass-thro ugh = 0.87 based o n private co nsumptio n per capita in co nstant LCU.
MPO 53 Oct 17
Selected Country Pages ● 73
GEORGIA Recent developments from higher excise taxes. NBG expects this
effect to expire by early 2018, with inflation
returning to its target by 2018.
Georgia is experiencing a solid recovery in Prudent banking supervision reinforced
2017 on the back of stronger growth in the banking sector stability. The sector has
Table 1 2016 U.S., Europe and Russia. Exports rose by remained profitable, yielding a return on
P o pulatio n, millio n 3.7 30 percent in the first half of 2017. Similar- assets of 3 percent and a return on equity
GDP , current US$ billio n 14.3 ly, remittances recovered significantly (by of over 20 percent as of end-June 2017.
GDP per capita, current US$ 3864 20 percent y/y), with a positive impact on Nonperforming loans (more than 90 days
Internatio nal po verty rate ($ 1.9)
a
8.3 non-tradeable sectors. Pulled by the re- past due) represented only 3 percent of
Lo wer middle-inco me po verty rate ($ 3.2)
a
25.6 sulting boost in domestic demand and net gross loans in 2017, down from 4.4 percent
a
54.6
exports, real GDP grew by 4.9 percent in as of mid-2016.
Upper middle-inco me po verty rate ($ 5.5)
a the first 6 months of the year (y/y). Poverty at $3.2/day was estimated at 25.6
Gini co efficient 38.9
b
The recovery in exports and remittances, percent in 2016, slightly higher than in
Scho o l enro llment, primary (% gro ss) 116.9
b
along with an accelerated adjustment of 2015. The increase in poverty breaks a de-
Life expectancy at birth, years 74.7
imports, helped to narrow the current clining trend that started in 2010, which
Source: WDI, M acro Poverty Outlook, and official data. account deficit from 13.5 percent of GDP was propelled mainly by employment op-
Notes:
(a) M ost recent value (2016), 2011 PPPs.
in Q1 2016 to 11.8 percent in Q1 2017. For- portunities and social assistance. The posi-
(b) M ost recent WDI value (2014) eign direct investment financed nearly 93 tive outcomes from labor markets in early
percent of the deficit. The external debt 2017, especially among the less-skilled,
stock rose by 6.6 percent (y/y) by end- suggest poverty will start again to decline
March 2017 driven by the higher external in 2017, but also highlights the vulnerabil-
financing needs. However, external debt ity of the population just above the poverty
Georgia’s growth accelerated to 4.9 per- still declined in terms of GDP, standing line to labor market fluctuations.
slightly above 100 percent of GDP.
cent in the first half of 2017 (y/y), driven Fiscal policy was expansionary in the first
by construction and tourism. In 2017
growth is projected at 4 percent, led by
half of the year. To support growth, the
government boosted capital spending by
Outlook
external demand and public investment. 32 percent, and current spending by 7
percent. Nevertheless, the fiscal deficit Economic growth is projected to increase
The fiscal deficit is projected to remain
narrowed, as revenues over performed, to an average rate of 4.5 percent a year
elevated at 4.1 percent of GDP by year- increasing by 18 percent y/y in the same over the medium-term, but downside
end, unchanged from 2016. Poverty is period. The sharp increase in excise tax risks to growth remain. The pick-up in
expected to return to its declining trend rates from January 1, 2017 contributed to growth in 2017 will largely be driven by
the solid tax collections. high public investment and the recovery
as economic growth recovers and trans-
The NBG raised the monetary policy rate in the export markets—propped up by the
lates into higher income. twice in 6 months of 2017 (by 50 basis uptick in global oil prices and the improv-
points) to tackle rising inflation expecta- ing growth prospects in Georgia’s key
tions. Annual inflation increased to 5.7 per- trading partners, including Russia FDI
FIGURE 1 Georgia / Real GDP growth and contributions to FIGURE 2 Georgia / Actual and projected poverty rates and
real GDP growth real GDP per capita
Percent, percentage points Poverty rate (%) GDP per capita (constant LCU)
15 100 4000
Prv. Consumption
Investments 3500
Net Exports 80
10 3000
Gov. consumption
GDP growth 2500
60
5 2000
40 1500
0
1000
20
500
-5
0 0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
-10 International poverty rate Lower middle-income pov. rate
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016e 2017p 2018p 2019p Upper middle-income pov. rate GDP pc
Sources: World Bank Estimates based on Geostat statistics. Sources: World Bank (see notes to Table 2).
MPO 54 Oct 17
74 ● World Bank ECA Economic Update October 2017
inflows, which largely originate from for tobacco and fuel, and introduced an
Azerbaijan and Turkey, remain resilient.
In the outer years, growth prospects factor
excise tax on cars. In addition, under the
2017 budget, the government committed
Risks and challenges
in the continuously strengthening eco- to restrain current spending. The fiscal
nomic ties with the EU. The downside deficit is then expected to narrow in 2017- Key macroeconomic vulnerabilities faced
risks arise primarily from possible adverse 20 as a result of these measures. However, by Georgia include risks to external and
global developments stemming from U.S. in 2017, the fiscal deficit is expected to fiscal sustainability. The possibility of
Federal Reserve interest rate increases and remain at 4.1 percent of GDP due to larg- tighter financial conditions and financial
uncertainty about China’s economic re- er investment spending, and in line with market volatility could hit global markets
balancing efforts. the IMF-supported program. Over the and some of Georgia’s main export desti-
At the domestic level, Georgia’s growth medium-term, capital expenditures and nations. This calls for vigilance by Georgia
recovery is predicated on a sustained re- net lending are budgeted to increase from which is financially open. On the fiscal
form program. In particular, this would 6.5 percent of GDP in 2016 up to 9 per- front, lower corporate tax revenues, high
entail the continuation of recent policies cent. Georgia’s public debt stood at 40 social spending commitments and plans
that have created favorable conditions for percent of GDP in the first half of 2017. to ramp up capital spending may chal-
private investment and a enhanced busi- However it is likely to decline to 37 per- lenge fiscal consolidation. Contingent lia-
ness climate, productivity growth, and cent by the end of 2017 before rising back bilities arising from state owned enterpris-
greater export competitiveness, as well as to 40 percent by 2019. es and the existing power purchase agree-
ensuring that a prudent macroeconomic The poverty rate is projected to decline ments with hydropower companies also
policy framework remains well-embedded. through 2019 reaching 20.9 percent. Eco- pose potential risks to fiscal sustainability.
Fiscal sustainability is expected to nomic recovery (and of construction activ- Poverty reduction may stall in coming
strengthen through revenue enhancing ity, in particular, supported by anticipated years if private sector employment growth
measures announced in the 2017 budget investments) is expected to drive poverty is not sustained, as it was the case in 2016.
to counter the impact of the adoption a reduction through increased job opportu- Rural poverty will remain high unless
Estonian-type of tax model. The latter, nities. However, employment generation agricultural productivity improves and
which replaced the corporate income tax in tradeable sectors will be critical for sus- non-agricultural employment opportuni-
with a dividend tax, came into effect in taining a declining poverty trend going ties are created.
January 2017, and is expected to lower tax forward. Limited fiscal space makes social
revenues by 1.5 percent of GDP. To offset transfers as a key driver of poverty reduc-
this loss, the government increased excise tion unlikely in the near future.
TABLE 2 Georgia / Macro poverty outlook indicators (annual percent change unless indicated otherwise)
So urces: Wo rld B ank, M acro eco no mics and Fiscal M anagement Glo bal P ractice, and P o verty and Equity Glo bal P ractice.
No tes: e=estimate, f = fo recast.
(a) Calculatio ns based o n ECA P OV harmo nizatio n, using 2016-HIS. A ctual data: 2014 - 2016. Fo recast are fro m 2017 to 2019.
(b) P ro jectio n using neutral distributio n (2016)�
with pass-thro ugh = 0.87 based o n GDP per capita in co nstant LCU.
MPO 55 Oct 17
Selected Country Pages ● 75
FIGURE 1 Kazakhstan / Real GDP growth and contributions FIGURE 2 Kazakhstan / Actual and projected poverty rates
to real GDP growth
6 20
4 15
2 10
0 5
-2 0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 f 2013 2014 2015 2016 e 2017 f 2018 f 2019 f
Consumption Investment $5.0/day, 2005 PPP acutal $5.0/day projected
Net exports GDP growth $5.5/day, 2011 PPP actual $5.5/day projected
Sources: Statistical Office of Kazakhstan; World Bank staff estimates. Source: World Bank staff estimates.
MPO 56 Oct 17
76 ● World Bank ECA Economic Update October 2017
crisis period. The growth projection for related to the bank bailout will help to nar-
2017 has been revised upwards from 2.4 to
3.7 percent. This reflects a better-than-
row the fiscal deficit from 2018 onwards.
Finally, implementation of inflation target-
Risks and challenges
expected oil sector performance in H1- ing will help stabilize consumer-price infla-
2017, driven by the commissioning of the tion at levels below 5 percent per year. The low resilience of Kazakhstan’s econo-
Kashagan oil field and higher oil prices. As the economy recovers, labor income, my to external shocks remains the major
Improved consumer confidence and high- the primary driver of poverty reduction, is challenge for achieving stable and sustain-
er domestic demand will drive growth in expected to return to positive real growth. able development and shared prosperity
the non-oil economy. The poverty rate is projected to decline to in the country. The downside and upside
Nevertheless, the current account and 6 percent by 2019 based on the current risks to the medium-term outlook include
fiscal balances are not expected to see im- growth forecast. external and domestic factors. External
provements in 2017. The current account Going forward, the successful implemen- demand from China and Russia, the coun-
deficit is projected to remain elevated due tation of structural reforms will assist in try’s key trading partners, as well as glob-
to higher profit repatriation by multina- transforming the economy and increase al oil demand and prices remain the key
tional oil companies. This outflow is par- the growth potential of Kazakhstan. The external factors impacting Kazakhstan’s
tially offset as a share of these profits is ongoing structural and institutional re- economy. Domestic factors include the
reinvested as foreign-direct-investment forms under the 100 Concrete Steps pro- pace of implementation of structural and
back into the oil sector in Kazakhstan, gram and the privatization agenda aim to institutional reforms, especially in antici-
boosting the capital and financial account reduce the role of the state in the economy pation of a political transition over the
of the balance of payments. The fiscal defi- and facilitate the development of a vibrant medium term. Unless the government
cit is estimated to remain high due to the tradable non-oil economy. Furthermore, demonstrates significant improvements in
bailout of the banking sector in 2017. restructuring and privatizing state-owned the rule of law, the investment climate,
Over the medium term, the GDP growth enterprises is expected to increase efficien- and the quality of human capital, there are
rate would hover around 3 percent a year, cy in public administration and lower the low chances for expanding the role of the
as the oil sector’s contribution to economic government’s fiscal risks. Prudent fiscal tradable non-oil sector in the economy,
growth declines relative to 2017. More fa- and monetary policies will support eco- with more productive and better-paid jobs
vorable terms of trade will drive improve- nomic and price stability and encourage that will facilitate poverty reduction.
ments in the current account and fiscal investments in the non-oil economy.
balances. Moreover, fiscal consolidation Higher incomes will also have positive
efforts and the passing of the one-off effects spillovers on poverty reduction.
TABLE 2 Kazakhstan / Macro poverty outlook indicators (annual percent change unless indicated otherwise)
So urces: Wo rld B ank, M acro eco no mics and Fiscal M anagement Glo bal P ractice, and P o verty Glo bal P ractice.
No tes: f = fo recast.
(a) Calculatio ns based o n ECA P OV harmo nizatio n, using 2015-HB S. A ctual data: 2015. No wcast: 2016 - 2016. Fo recast are fro m 2017 to 2019.
(b) P ro jectio n using neutral distributio n (2015)�
with pass-thro ugh = 0.87 based o n GDP per capita in co nstant LCU.
MPO 57 Oct 17
Selected Country Pages ● 77
FIGURE 1 Kosovo / Real GDP growth and contributions to FIGURE 2 Kosovo / Actual and projected poverty rates and
real GDP growth real GDP per capita
Percent, percentage points Poverty rate (%) GDP per capita (constant LCU)
10 6 3500
8 3000
5
6
2500
4 4
2 2000
3
0 1500
-2 2
1000
-4
1 500
-6
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 0 0
2015 2016 2017 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
International poverty rate Lower middle-income pov. rate
Consumption Investment Net exports GDP GDP pc
Sources: Statistics Agency of Kosovo and WB staff. Source: World Bank. Notes: see table 2.
MPO 58 Oct 17
78 ● World Bank ECA Economic Update October 2017
The poverty rate (measured as US$ 3.2/ projected to increase exports and substi- only 61 out of 120 votes in the parliament.
day, 2011 PPP) is estimated to have de- tute imports in medium to long term, and Political fragility can lead to rising fiscal
clined to 2.9 percent in 2016. reduce CAD in 2019. The positive trend in pressures and a delay in fiscal reforms. On
export of travel services is expected to the upside, stronger regional and global
improve external balances in the near fu- growth can further support growth in
Outlook ture. The recent launch of the SAA with
the EU and potential large investments in
Kosovo.
Reform priorities include shifting sources
energy generation capacities are expected of growth towards tradable sectors and
Growth – projected at 4.1 percent in 2017 to boost FDI in the medium term and in- increasing productivity to address high
and 4.2 in 2018 – will be driven by grow- crease non-debt financing of CAD. unemployment, low participation rates,
ing consumption, and public investment. Poverty is expected to continue declining, and poverty. This requires significant
Fiscal deficit is expected to reach 2 percent though slower than in 2016. Vulnerabilities structural reforms to boost economic
of GDP in 2017, guided by the fiscal rules remain in the medium term given down- growth and make it more inclusive.
in place. A gradual increase in deficit is side risks to growth and high unemploy-
projected, as absorption capacity im- ment and inactivity rates. Poverty, meas-
proves and investment clause for IFI fi- ured at the lower middle income poverty
nancing continues to be implemented. line (US$ 3.2/day, 2011 PPP), is expected to
Public debt is low, but is expected to in- decline to 2.7, 2.5 and then to 2.4 percent in
crease quickly to 16.3 percent of GDP in 2017, 2018 and 2019, respectively.
2017 and to 20.3 percent in 2019.
The CAD is expected to remain relatively
flat at 9 and 8.9 percent as share of GDP in
2017 and 2018, respectively, although
Risks and challenges
trade deficit driven by growth and domes-
tic demand will widen. Expansion of pro- The downside risks to the outlook include
duction base across sectors due to contin- perceived fragility of the new government
ued large investments including FDI is created as a minority government with
TABLE 2 Kosovo / Macro poverty outlook indicators (annual percent change unless indicated otherwise)
So urces: Wo rld B ank, M acro eco no mics and Fiscal M anagement Glo bal P ractice, and P o verty and Equity Glo bal P ractice.
No tes: e=estimate, f = fo recast.
(a) Calculatio ns based o n ECA P OV harmo nizatio n, using 2015-HB S. A ctual data: 2015. No wcast: 2016 - 2016. Fo recast are fro m 2017 to 2019.
(b) P ro jectio n using neutral distributio n (2015) with pass-thro ugh = 0.7 based o n GDP per capita in co nstant LCU.
MPO 59 Oct 17
Selected Country Pages ● 79
FIGURE 1 Kyrgyz Republic / Real GDP growth and contri- FIGURE 2 Kyrgyz Republic / Actual and projected poverty
butions to real GDP growth and real GDP growth rates
4 35 10
4
30
3 8
3 25
2 6
2 20
1 4
15
0 1 2
10
-1 0 5 0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
0 -2
Agriculture Industry w/out Kumtor 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Kumtor Construction
Services GDP (RHS) GDP growth, RHS $3.2/day PPP, LHS
Sources: Sources: Kyrgyz authorities and WB staff calculations. Sources: Kyrgyz authorities and WB staff calculations.
MPO 60 Oct 17
80 ● World Bank ECA Economic Update October 2017
tural producers. Moderate growth in ser- improved relations with Uzbekistan spur
vices and agriculture, where about 50
percent of the bottom 40 are employed,
cross border trade.
On the fiscal side, the authorities are aim-
Risks and challenges
constrained real labor income growth for ing to reach a deficit target of 4.7 percent
the poor. of GDP (3 percent without on-lending) for The economy and the welfare of Kyrgyz
the whole year. Going forward they have citizens will continue to be highly exposed
committed to significant fiscal consolida- to risks related to exogenous regional de-
Outlook tion over 2018-19, to reduce the deficit to 3
percent by 2019 (baseline scenario) mainly
velopments. Specifically, an economic
slowdown in EEU member countries
through expenditure compression. How- growth would affect the Kyrgyz Republic
Macroeconomic conditions are expected to ever, early indications for the second half via remittances and trade. Adverse ex-
remain broadly favorable in 2017, assum- of 2017, and the adoption of new policies change rate developments, such as rela-
ing price and exchange rate stability, and for 2018 (including wage increases and tively sharper depreciations of other EEU
that spending pressures can be controlled new social entitlements) are likely to make currencies, would heighten competition
in the run up to the presidential election these objectives extremely difficult to with Kyrgyz producers in the domestic
in October 2017. abide by. and EEU markets.
Annual growth is projected to reach 3.5 Modest increases in growth projections for A core challenge continues to be the need
percent in 2017. While gold production agriculture and construction, and further to accelerate the process of convergence of
should tapper-off in the second half of the increases in remittances, are likely to sup- local production to EEU standards. It is
year, high remittance inflows are ex- port rural poverty reduction during 2017- expected that this will help the Kyrgyz
pected to boost demand, driving non- 18. Private sector real wages are expected producers to utilize the already existing
gold growth to 4.1 percent for the full to rise slowly, resulting in a slight reduc- capacities to boost exports of agricultural
year. In 2018 growth is expected to in- tion in urban poverty, where wage em- and textile products in the short and me-
crease to 4.2 percent owing to remittance ployment is more prevalent. Social trans- dium run.
supported-consumption and export fers will continue to play an important Lastly, while countercyclical fiscal policy
growth, as (i) the Kyrgyz Republic contin- role in driving poverty reduction in both has helped the Kyrgyz economy to weath-
ues to upgrade its standards and proce- urban and rural areas. A scheduled in- er the impact of the regional economic
dures to EEU norms, freeing up latent crease in pensions should also benefit downturn, the improvement in the eco-
supply in agro-products, (ii) further fi- poor households given that pensions rep- nomic outlook makes it important to re-
nancing from the Kyrgyz – Russian De- resent close to 15 percent of income build buffers and the country’s capacity to
velopment Fund targeting access to EEU among the poor. The poverty rate is pro- respond to future shocks. Fiscal consolida-
market is disbursed, (iii) production from jected to decline to 22.6 percent in 2017 tion without affecting social programs will
new gold mines comes online, and (iv) and 22.2 percent in 2018. be a major challenge.
TABLE 2 Kyrgyz Republic / Macro poverty outlook indicators (annual percent change unless indicated otherwise)
So urces: Wo rld B ank, M acro eco no mics and Fiscal M anagement Glo bal P ractice, and P o verty and Equity Glo bal P ractice.
No tes: e=estimate, f = fo recast.
(a) Calculatio ns based o n ECA P OV harmo nizatio n, using 2009-KIHS and 2015-KIHS. A ctual data: 2015. No wcast: 2016 - 2016. Fo recast are fro m 2017 to 2019.
(b) P ro jectio n using average elasticity (2009-2015) �
with pass-thro ugh = 0.7 based o n GDP per capita in co nstant LCU.
MPO 61 Oct 17
Selected Country Pages ● 81
MACEDONIA, Recent developments o-y in 2016 and 2.7 percent in the first half
of 2017. A large share of newly created
jobs are linked to employment programs
FIGURE 1 FYR Macedonia / Real GDP growth and contribu- FIGURE 2 FYR Macedonia / Annual and projected poverty
tions to real GDP growth rates and real GDP per capita
Percent, percentage points Poverty headcount GDP per capita (USD 2011 PPP)
6 50 35.1 16,000
32.5 32.2
45 14,000
4 29.7
40 28.9
12,000
2 35 24.8 23.9
30 22.8 22.2
21.8 20.9 10,000
0 25 8,000
-2 20 6,000
15 9.7 10.4 9.9
7.5 4,000
-4 10 6.2 4.9 4.8 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.1
5 2,000
-6
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 f 2019 f 0 0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Final consumption Gross capital formation
Net exports Real growth $1.9/day $5.5/day GDP per capita
Sources: FYR Macedonia State Statistics Office and World Bank staff calculations. Sources: WDI and own calculations based on SILC 2010-2015.
MPO 64 Oct 17
82 ● World Bank ECA Economic Update October 2017
budget. The new Government adopted a salaries, especially in the labor-intensive labor markets will provide more income
supplementary budget in July 2017, which sectors, are expected to have contributed earning opportunities at the bottom of the
rebalances expenditure and revenues but to poverty reduction in 2016 and early distribution, where unemployment is still
leaves the targeted deficit unchanged at 2017. Increases in social assistance and high. Public investment in infrastructure
2.9 percent of GDP. This is slightly larger pensions are expected to contribute to should sustain employment creation. In-
than the 2.6 percent of GDP achieved in poverty reduction in 2017, though their clement weather in summer 2017 may
2016. The supplementary budget foresees impact is expected to be lower than that of have led to a slight increase in poverty
a shift in the speeding structure to cover the labor market income. among households depending mainly on
electoral promises and changes in revenue agriculture income.
to adjust for lower expected growth. The
biggest expenditure cuts are on country
Outlook
branding and promotion. and capital
spending (to match expected execution).
Risks and challenges
Pensions, subsidies, social assistance, and Affected by the political uncertainty in the
health are expected to increase, partially first half of the year, growth is expected to As the political situation is being resolved
compensating for the savings in other decline to 1.5 percent in 2017, but expand and confidence restored, the primary
items. The new budget considers lower to increase to 3.2 and 3.9 percent in 2018 source of downside risk is the fiscal situa-
revenues from most taxes, but higher rev- and 2019, respectively. The main drivers tion which could threaten stability and
enues from excise and contributions. The are expected to be consumption, fueled by undermine growth prospects in the medi-
public and publicly guaranteed debt in- growing employment, and investments, um term. The main fiscal pressures steam
creased from 46.4 percent of GDP in 2015 both public (as the two highways under from the high fiscal deficit, rising public
to 47.7 percent of GDP in 2016 and re- construction should be finished by 2019) debt, deteriorating public financial man-
mained stable in nominal terms in the first and private (which is expected to pick-up agement, arrears accumulation and the
half of 2017. as confidence is restored). The fiscal deficit pension system deficit. Considering the
Poverty is estimated to have declined in is expected to reach 3 percent of GDP in important role played in recent years, a
2016. Using the poverty line for upper 2017, but then gradually decline to 2.2 reduction or reorientation of public
middle income countries (US$5.5/day at percent by 2019. The PPG debt is expected spending could affect employment crea-
2011 PPP), poverty is projected to have to increase to 55 percent by 2019. tion, stalling poverty reduction. The main
fallen to 22.8 percent in 2016, continuing Poverty is expected to continue its down- upside risk is a faster than expected
a decreasing trend present since 2009. ward trend in the next years. Real wage growth in the EU, increasing the external
Employment growth and increases in growth and continuous improvement in demand for Macedonian products.
TABLE 2 FYR Macedonia / Macro poverty outlook indicators (annual percent change unless indicated otherwise)
So urces: Wo rld B ank, M acro eco no mics and Fiscal M anagement Glo bal P ractice, and P o verty and Equity Glo bal P ractice.
No tes: e=estimate, f = fo recast.
(a) Calculatio ns based o n SILC harmo nizatio n, using 2014-SILC gro uped data (survey year). A ctual data: 2014. No wcast: 2015 - 2016. Fo recast are fro m 2017 to 2019.
(b) P ro jectio n using neutral distributio n (2014) with pass-thro ugh = 0.87 based o n GDP per capita in co nstant LCU.
MPO 65 Oct 17
Selected Country Pages ● 83
FIGURE 1 Moldova Actual and projected GDP growth and FIGURE 2 Moldova Actual and projected poverty rates and
current account balance real private consumption per capita
Percent Poverty rate (%) Private consumption per capita (constant LCU)
9.4
10 100 12000
8 7.1 6.8
6 4.8 10000
4.3 80
3.5 3.8 3.6
4
8000
2 60
0 6000
-2 -0.7 -0.5 40
-4 4000
-6 20
-6.0 2000
-8
-10 Real GDP, % change 0 0
-12 Current Account Balance, % of GDP 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
-14 International poverty rate Lower middle-income pov. rate
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Upper middle-income pov. rate Consumption pc
Sources: National authorities and World Bank estimates. Source: World Bank. Notes: see table 2.
MPO 66 Oct 17
84 ● World Bank ECA Economic Update October 2017
In the first quarter of 2017, the current offset higher expenditures. Should addi-
account deficit increased to 7.5 percent
from 5 percent a year earlier as imports
tional international support materialize,
public investments could increase further.
Risks and challenges
growth more than offset the strong export The revitalization of foreign inflows, and
performance. Due to an increase in rein- improvements in the financial sector and Key downside risks to the baseline outlook
vested revenues, FDI increased to 3.1 per- in the business environment are expected include a slowdown in the implementation
cent of GDP, from 1.4 percent in 2016Q1. to encourage further private investments. of key growth enhancing reforms, includ-
Transfers through the banking system, a Real growth in public transfers and the ing those related to the restructuring of the
proxy for remittances, increased 9.7 per- ongoing rebound in remittances will help financial and energy sector and to the effi-
cent in the first half of 2017. Still, external maintain the growth momentum during ciency of public finances. Weak rule of law
debt was the main source of current ac- the remaining part of the forecast horizon. and vested interests could also halt the
count deficit financing. Due to the appre- Real GDP is projected to reach 3.8 percent reform process – governance and transpar-
ciation of the national currency, the exter- and 3.6 percent in 2018 and 2019, respec- ency related reforms remain indeed key to
nal debt decreased by 5 percentage points tively. As the support from the interna- strengthen the growth prospects. Parlia-
to 91 percent of estimated GDP. tional community is expected to decline, mentary elections, scheduled in 2018, may
the fiscal deficit is expected to widen but also affect the pace of the implementation
to remain below 2.5 percent of GDP. As of the reform agenda. Weaker than ex-
Outlook consumption and imports strengthen, the
current account deficit is expected to grad-
pected growth in the main partners, such
as the EU and CIS countries, could affect
ually increase, but is expected to remain Moldovan economy.
Economic growth is projected at 3.5 per- below its historical average thanks to a Increasing the efficiency of public spend-
cent during 2017, supported by a good stronger export performance. The inflation ing revenue mobilization would allow
harvest and strong private consumption rate is expected to remain on average in Moldova to create the necessary fiscal
due to higher remittances and private the targeted corridor. space for key social and capital expendi-
wage growth. Despite favorable exports Against this background, the poverty rate tures. Compared to peer countries in the
developments, the contribution of net measured at the Upper Middle Income region, Moldova could reach the current
trade to GDP growth is expected to re- line of PPP US$5.5/day is projected to socio-economic outcomes (in particular in
main negative as imports are rapidly ex- decrease by 3 percentage points in 2016- education, health, and vital infrastructure)
panding. In 2017, the fiscal deficit is fore- 2019, supported by real wage growth (5.7 with less spending. The elimination of tax
casted to remain below the planned 3 per- percent in Q2 of 2017 as compared to Q2 expenditure that do not a have a clear
cent of GDP level thanks to a strong reve- of 2016), as well as remittances and pub- rationale would create a more efficient
nue performance which is expected to lic transfers. and revenue enhancing tax system.
TABLE 2 Moldova / Macro poverty outlook indicators (annual percent change unless indicated otherwise)
So urces: Wo rld B ank, M acro eco no mics and Fiscal M anagement Glo bal P ractice, and P o verty and Equity Glo bal P ractice.
No tes: e=estimate, f = fo recast.
(a) Calculatio ns based o n ECA P OV harmo nizatio n, using 2010-HB S and 2015-HB S. A ctual data: 2014, 2015. No wcast: 2016 - 2016. Fo recast are fro m 2017 to 2019.
(b) P ro jectio n using annualized elasticity (2010-2015) with pass-thro ugh = 0.87 based o n private co nsumptio n per capita in co nstant LCU.
MPO 67 Oct 17
Selected Country Pages ● 85
FIGURE 1 Montenegro / Real GDP growth and contributions FIGURE 2 Montenegro / Actual and projected poverty rates
to real GDP growth and real private consumption per capita
Percent Poverty rate (%) Private consumption per capita (constant LCU)
10 12 2500
8
6 10
2000
4
8
2 1500
0
6
-2
1000
-4 4
-6
500
-8 2
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017f 2018f 20197f
Final consumption Gross fixed capital formation 0 0
Change in inventories Net exports 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Residual item GDP growth
Upper middle-income pov. rate Consumption pc
GDP growth
Sources: MONSTAT, World Bank. Source: World Bank. Notes: see table 2.
MPO 68 Oct 17
86 ● World Bank ECA Economic Update October 2017
TABLE 2 Montenegro / Macro poverty outlook indicators (annual percent change unless indicated otherwise)
So urces: Wo rld B ank, M acro eco no mics and Fiscal M anagement Glo bal P ractice, and P o verty and Equity Glo bal P ractice.
No tes: e=estimate, f = fo recast.
(a) Calculatio ns based o n ECA P OV harmo nizatio n, using 2009-HB S and 2014-HB S. A ctual data: 2014. No wcast: 2015 - 2016. Fo recast are fro m 2017 to 2019.
(b) P ro jectio n using po int-to -po int elasticity (2009-2014) with pass-thro ugh = 0.5 based o n private co nsumptio n per capita in co nstant LCU and estimated impact o f fiscal
co nso lidatio n.
MPO 69 Oct 17
Selected Country Pages ● 87
FIGURE 1 Poland / Real GDP growth and contributions to FIGURE 2 Poland / Actual and projected poverty rates and
real GDP growth real private consumption per capita
Percent, percentage points Poverty rate (%) Private consumption per capita (constant LCU)
6 16 35000
14 30000
4 12
25000
10
20000
2
8
15000
6
0 10000
4
2 5000
-2
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017f 2018f 2019f 0 0
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Final consumption Gross fixed capital formation
Change in inventories Net exports International poverty rate Lower middle-income pov. rate
Statistical discrepancy GDP growth Upper middle-income pov. rate Consumption pc
Sources: MFMod, World Bank. Sources: World Bank (see notes to Table 2).
MPO 70 Oct 17
88 ● World Bank ECA Economic Update October 2017
loading of public expenditures during the that took effect in 2017 is expected to have modity prices are projected to remain
year, these surpluses will turn into defi- increased the incomes of the bottom of the broadly unchanged and migrants keep
cits. Moreover, the rollback in the statuto- distribution, which has been so far only filling the existing labor shortages.
ry retirement age will inflate the expenses modestly offset by rising prices. The $5.50/ Domestically, the main risk to growth is
from October 2017. day 2011 PPP poverty rate is projected to posed by acceleration of unit labor costs
Poland’s external position remained bal- decline to 1.5 percent in 2017 and further on the back of labor shortages. Additional
anced. The current account deficit was 0.2 to 1.3 percent by 2019. risks may stem from recently proposed
percent of GDP in 2016 and is close to The general government deficit is set to changes to the judiciary system, which
balance in mid-2017. widen again in 2018-2019 to around 2.6- may be seen as undermining the rule of
2.7 percent of GDP, which is below the 3 law, potentially denting investor confi-
percent Maastricht threshold. The in- dence and affecting relations with the EU.
Outlook crease in the deficit is due to higher
spending on account of the roll-back of
Further improvements in tax compliance
beyond 2017 might be more difficult to
the retirement age and higher co- achieve but if it occurs, it should offset
GDP growth is expected to increase to 4.0 financing of EU-funded capital spending. costs due to the rollback of the retirement
percent in 2017 from 2.7 percent in 2016 Inflation remains low, well below the age of about 0.4 percent of GDP per year.
on the back of strong consumption growth NBP’s inflation target of 2.5 percent. How- However, rising costs of rapid aging and
and gradually recovering investment, ever, labor market bottlenecks and rising the need for fiscal space to co-finance
while the contribution of net exports is to unit labor costs are the main source of public investment imply that fiscal con-
be broadly neutral. Over the medium inflation pressure. solidation should start promptly when
term, growth is expected to gradually the economy is strong.
moderate towards the potential growth Continued growth and shared prosperity
rate of about 3.5 percent, supported by
growth in capital accumulation, and
Risks and challenges in Poland will ultimately depend on a
more strategic, effective, and accountable
against the backdrop of deteriorating de- state. Continued productivity growth and
mographics and the rollback in statutory Poland’s growth prospects may be affect- transition to an innovation-led growth
retirement age. ed by persisting uncertainty in the global model will require improved consistency
Robust private consumption and strong economy, including the monetary and and commitment to sound policies, and
labor market should continue to boost real fiscal policy stance in the US and the im- improved coordination between the pub-
income growth, and are likely to lead to pact of Brexit negotiations. On the positive lic and private sectors and local and na-
further declines in poverty incidence. The side, the global economy and the EU tional government institutions.
8 percent increase in the minimum wage might grow at a faster pace, while com-
TABLE 2 Poland / Macro poverty outlook indicators (annual percent change unless indicated otherwise)
So urces: Wo rld B ank, M acro eco no mics and Fiscal M anagement Glo bal P ractice, and P o verty and Equity Glo bal P ractice.
No tes: e=estimate, f = fo recast.
(a) Calculatio ns based o n EUSILC harmo nizatio n, using 2004-EU-SILC and 2014-EU-SILC. A ctual data: 2014. No wcast: 2015 - 2016. Fo recast are fro m 2017 to 2019.
(b) P ro jectio n using po int-to -po int elasticity (2004-2014) �
with pass-thro ugh = 1based o n private co nsumptio n per capita in co nstant LCU.
MPO 71 Oct 17
Selected Country Pages ● 89
FIGURE 1 Romania / Real GDP growth and contributions to FIGURE 2 Romania / Actual and projected poverty rates
real GDP growth and real GDP per capita
Percent, percentage points Poverty rate (%) GDP per capita (constant LCU)
9 45 10000
7 40
35 8000
5
30
3 6000
25
1 20
4000
-1 15
-3 10 2000
5
-5
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017f 2018f 2019f 0 0
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Net exports Private Consumption
Gross fixed capital formation Public Consumption Lower middle-income pov. rate Upper middle-income pov. rate
GDP GDP pc
Sources: World Bank, Romanian National Statistical Institute. Sources: World Bank. Notes: see Table 2.
MPO 72 Oct 17
90 ● World Bank ECA Economic Update October 2017
aided by improvements in the European and lead to further declines in poverty towards the emerging economies and to
economy. The pickup in consumption is incidence. Moreover, the planned intro- higher refinancing costs, further rein-
expected to widen the current account defi- duction of the Minimum Social Insertion forcing fiscal pressures. On the upside, a
cit to 3.1 percent in 2017, from 2.4 percent Income program (MSII) is expected to better-than-projected economic perfor-
in 2016. Inflation is set to rise, reflecting the improve targeting and increase the level mance of the Eurozone will act as a
excess domestic demand and the fading of benefits for the most vulnerable. The driver for growth in the broader EU,
out of the base effect of the tax cuts. The $5.50/day 2011 PPP poverty rate is pro- including Romania.
NBR anticipates a gradual increase in infla- jected to decline to 24.5 percent in 2017, to Increasing Romanian’s growth potential
tion towards 2 percent at the end of 2017. 23.3 percent in 2018, and to 22.4 percent requires attention to the structural re-
The pro-cyclical fiscal measures passed in in 2019. forms agenda. Public administration re-
2017 have put pressure on the consolidat- forms and measures to combat corrup-
ed budget deficit. The government aims to tion, boosting tax revenues through ad-
maintain the fiscal deficit below 3 percent
of GDP in 2017 through several fiscal
Risks and challenges ministrative reforms, improving the effi-
ciency and efficacy of public spending,
measures, including by hiking excise du- and implementing the new legal frame-
ties for fuels and requiring selected SOEs Accumulating fiscal pressures and excess work for the SOE corporate governance
to pay dividends in advance for their 2017 domestic demand limit the space for poli- agenda remain reform priorities. Re-
profits. Exceeding the deficit limit of 3 cy-makers to maneuver in 2017 and be- newed efforts are needed to improve la-
percent of GDP would place Romania into yond. The fiscal and current account defi- bor participation and generate broad-
the Excessive Deficit Procedure of the EU. cits are on the rise, and public debt dy- based employment, as unemployment
The widening of the fiscal deficit will push namics have not been stabilized. These remains high among youth and the low-
public debt to just above 49 percent of developments leave the Romanian econo- skilled, and to ensure that all Romanians
GDP by the end of 2019 from 44.6 percent my increasingly vulnerable to exogenous obtain access to high quality public ser-
in 2016. Public debt remains one of the shocks. The authorities should consider vices. Gradually, the focus of fiscal policy
lowest in the EU, but it is not stabilized by additional fiscal measures if the budget should be rebalanced away from boosting
the current fiscal stance. deficit risks exceeding 3 percent of GDP in consumption towards supporting a sus-
Strong private consumption growth aided 2017 and 2018. Externally, a likely tapering tainable EU convergence path.
by a lower VAT rate, coupled with low of the quantitative easing in the Eurozone
unemployment and continued growth in and higher global interest rates may lead
real wages, should boost real incomes to a repositioning in investor sentiment
TABLE 2 Romania / Macro poverty outlook indicators (annual percent change unless indicated otherwise)
So urces: Wo rld B ank, M acro eco no mics and Fiscal M anagement Glo bal P ractice, and P o verty and Equity Glo bal P ractice.
No tes: e = estimate, f = fo recast.
(a) A ssumes that the planned public secto r wage increases and the reductio n in the flat tax will be implemented in January 2018.
(b) Calculatio ns based o n EUSILC harmo nizatio n, using 2006-EU-SILC, 2011-EU-SILC, and 2014-EU-SILC.
(c) P ro jectio n using annualized elasticity (2006-2011) �
with pass-thro ugh = 0.7 based o n GDP per capita in co nstant LCU. No wcast: 2015 - 2016. Fo recast are fro m 2017 to 2019.
(d) A ctual data: 2014. No wcast: 2015 - 2016. Fo recast are fro m 2017 to 2019.
MPO 73 Oct 17
Selected Country Pages ● 91
FIGURE 1 Russian Federation / Real GDP growth and con- FIGURE 2 Russian Federation / Actual and projected
tributions to real GDP growth poverty rates and real private consumption per capita
Percent, percentage points Poverty rate (%) Private consumption per capita (constant LCU)
10 35 300000
5 30 250000
25
0 200000
20
-5 150000
15
-10 100000
10
-15 5 50000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Iq
2017 0 0
Stat error Import
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Export Change in inventories
Gross Fixed Capital Formation Consumption International poverty rate Lower middle-income pov. rate
GDP growth Upper middle-income pov. rate Consumption pc
Sources: Russian Statistical Authorities and World Bank staff calculations. Sources: World Bank. Notes: See table 2.
MPO 74 Oct 17
92 ● World Bank ECA Economic Update October 2017
GDP in the same period last year), on the the GDP’s growth rate in the medium
back of lower expenditures and higher
non-oil/gas revenues.
Outlook term. Easing this constraint will require
deepening and accelerating structural
Increased geopolitical tensions led to an reforms. Priority policy objectives include
expansion of U.S. sanctions against The government plans to stay the course reducing the role of the state in the econo-
Russia, which now cannot be removed on fiscal consolidation. A new fiscal rule my, protecting property rights, improving
without U.S. congressional approval. will fully come into effect in 2019. In 2018, the institutional and regulatory frame-
The U.S. also tightened sanctions tar- transitional provisions will be applied. works, and promoting fair competition.
geting Russia’s energy, financial, de- Primary expenditures would not exceed The moderate poverty rate is expected to
fense, and intelligence sectors. While oil and gas revenues at a threshold oil decline in 2017, but will remain elevated
the expansion of sanctions exerted some price of US$40 per barrel (in real terms, through 2018. With constrained public
depreciation pressure on the ruble, it based on 2017 prices) and projected non- spending, labor income will become the
had a limited effect on the Russian oil revenues. Oil and gas revenues from most important driver for increasing in-
stock market. the oil price exceeding the threshold will comes for the bottom 40 percent. Some
Unemployment declined slightly in the be saved in the National Welfare Fund, rebound in the real sector, including wage
first half of 2017, while low inflation al- which would be merged with the Reserve growth in the private sector together with
lowed real wages to increase. However, Fund. The rule would smoothen the im- pension indexation to the inflation level,
real disposable income growth remained pact of oil price volatility on the real ex- will support disposable incomes and help
negative, driven by contractions in other change rate, the budget system, and do- the poverty rate gradually decline, albeit
income sources, including pensions. mestic demand. remaining above the pre-crisis level.
The poverty rate in Russia, under its na- In an environment of firming global activ-
tional definition, increased marginally in ity, we expect Russia’s economy to grow
2016 to 13.5 percent, compared to 13.3
percent in 2015, and it increased in most
at a modest pace of 1.7 percent in 2017 and
2018, and 1.8 percent in 2019. Moderately
Risks and challenges
regions (53). The international moderate- strengthening oil prices are expected to
poverty rate in Russia reached 2.7 percent support the recovery in domestic demand. This outlook is subject to both downside
in 2015 and is estimated to rise to 3.3 per- We expect consumer demand and export and upside risks. The upside risk comes
cent in 2016 because of a decline in real to be the main engines for GDP growth in from the high-growth momentum of the
wages, high inflation, and a fall in social 2017, with significant support from invest- second quarter rolling over to the second
benefits in real terms. The extreme- ment demand. half of the year. Downside risks stem from
poverty rate, however, remains marginal, Low Total Factor Productivity (TFP) low oil prices and possible negative im-
below one percent. growth and a declining labor force limit pact from the expansion of sanctions.
TABLE 2 Russian Federation / Macro poverty outlook indicators (annual percent change unless indicated otherwise)
So urces: Wo rld B ank, M acro eco no mics and Fiscal M anagement Glo bal P ractice, and P o verty and Equity Glo bal P ractice.
No tes: e=estimate, f = fo recast.
(a) Fiscal and P rimary B alance refer to general go vernment balances.
(b) Calculatio ns based o n ECA P OV harmo nizatio n, using 2015-HB S. A ctual data: 2014, 2015. No wcast: 2016 - 2016. Fo recast are fro m 2017 to 2019.
(c) P ro jectio n using neutral distributio n (2015)�
with pass-thro ugh = 1 based o n private co nsumptio n per capita in co nstant LCU.
MPO 75 Oct 17
Selected Country Pages ● 93
FIGURE 1 Serbia / Real GDP growth and contributions to FIGURE 2 Serbia / Actual and projected poverty rates and
real GDP growth real private consumption per capita
Percent, percentage points Poverty rate (%) Private consumption per capita (constant LCU)
5.0 30 370000
Consumption
25 360000
4.0
Investment
Net exports 350000
3.0 20
GDP 340000
2.0 15
330000
1.0 10
320000
0.0 5 310000
-1.0 0 300000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
-2.0 International poverty rate Lower middle-income pov. rate
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Upper middle-income pov. rate Consumption pc
Sources: WB staff calculations based on Statistical Office data. Sources: World Bank. Notes: see table 2.
MPO 76 Oct 17
94 ● World Bank ECA Economic Update October 2017
declined to 15.6 percent due to more ac- continue its gradual decline. Poverty, public finances over the medium term and
tive role of banks in selling and writing measured as income below the standard- faster growth require further effort toward
off NPLs. ized $5.5/day 2011PPP line is estimated to implementation of structural reforms: in
continue declining to around 21 percent secondary and tertiary education; health
by 2019. As part of the government’s fiscal financing; privatization of remaining state
Outlook consolidation program, another nominal
electricity tariff increase in 2017 is ex-
stakes in SOEs and financial institutions.
Also, special attention needs to paid to
pected in the autumn, though smaller expanding external imbalances.
Over the medium term, growth is ex- than previous increases. The recently ex- The potential distributional impacts of
pected to pick up, thus helping with labor panded energy bill discount program can these important structural reforms may
market recovery and poverty reduction. help protect vulnerable customers, but present continued challenges to faster pov-
Growth is expected to be driven by in- implementation challenges related to pro- erty reduction in the short run. Despite
creased investment, stimulated by reforms cessing of claims remain. recent improvements, labor force partici-
to improve the business climate, and the pation and employment ratios are still low
recovery of consumption (as the fiscal while unemployment is high, especially
consolidation program gradually expires).
Growth is expected to be around 3-4 per-
Risks and challenges for the young. Therefore, policy design
needs to consider appropriate social assis-
cent over the medium term. tance and facilitate access to employment.
With economic growth and improvements While recognizing the positive fiscal consol-
in the labor market, poverty is expected to idation progress since 2015, sustainability of
TABLE 2 Serbia / Macro poverty outlook indicators (annual percent change unless indicated otherwise)
So urces: Wo rld B ank, M acro eco no mics and Fiscal M anagement Glo bal P ractice, and P o verty Glo bal P ractice.
No tes: f = fo recast.
(a) Calculatio ns based o n EUSILC harmo nizatio n, using 2014-EU-SILC. A ctual data: 2014. No wcast: 2015 - 2016. Fo recast are fro m 2017 to 2019.
(b) P ro jectio n using neutral distributio n (2014) with pass-thro ugh = 1 based o n private co nsumptio n per capita in co nstant LCU.
MPO 77 Oct 17
Selected Country Pages ● 95
FIGURE 1 Tajikistan / Real GDP growth and contributions FIGURE 2 Tajikistan / Official poverty rate and real GDP
to real GDP growth growth, actual and projected, 2014-19
2 3%
26% Official Poverty Rate (LHS)
Poverty Projection (LHS) 2%
0 24%
Real GDP growth (RHS) 1%
2014 2015 2016e 2017f 2018f 2019f
Agriculture Industry 22% 0%
Services Real GDP growth 2014 2015 2016 e 2017 f 2018 f 2019 f
Sources: TajStat, World Bank staff estimates. Sources: World Bank staff estimates.
MPO 78 Oct 17
96 ● World Bank ECA Economic Update October 2017
extreme poverty fell from 15.1 percent to sustained high rates of the industrial out-
14 percent over the same period. Income
from employment remains the primary
put expansion, construction of the Roghun
HPP and the resulting increase in electrici-
Risks and challenges
driver of poverty reduction, however ty production from late 2018 onwards. It is
lower remittances continued to slow the expected that—in line with recovering Risks are tilted to the downside due to
pace of poverty reduction in 2016. The remittances—private consumption will external and domestic factors. The ex-
trends for urban and rural poverty di- continue its positive contribution though pected modest performance of the region-
verged in 2016. Although poverty fell unlikely to boost growth significantly be- al economies, and a drop in commodity
from 35.3 percent to 33.5 percent in rural cause of uncertain prospects of the Rus- prices may negatively affect inward re-
areas, it was relatively stagnant in urban sian economy. mittances and export proceeds.
areas at around 24 percent. The rising cost Medium-term fiscal policy is expected to Poor governance in the financial sector, in
of food is expected to negatively affect be contractionary to help bring public state-owned-enterprises and in tax climate
households that are net-buyers, while debt on a sustainable path. However, in remain serious challenges, while limited
benefiting net sellers. Food expenditure 2017 the deficit is projected to remain high fiscal space due to the country’s high level
accounts for about 75 percent of total con- at about 5 percent of GDP, driven by the of debt distress and low domestic and ex-
sumption for poor households, and the construction of the Roghun plant and the ternal buffers create vulnerability to poten-
Listening-to-Tajikistan survey identified a second-round bank recapitalization in the tial shocks. Upside risks include higher
large increase in the share of households latter half of the year. However, it is still a energy export potential of Tajikistan to be
reducing food consumption to pay for significant adjustment compared with the materialized after installation of the Ro-
other basic needs - on average from about fiscal deficit exceeding 10 percent of GDP ghun HPP’s two generators in 2018-19.
40 percent to 62 percent through January- registered in 2016. Any lower-than-expected recovery in re-
May 2017. The poverty rate is expected to fall in line gional economies or delays in the expan-
with the projected growth, gradual in- sion of the targeted social assistance pro-
crease in employment earnings, recover- gram could derail expected poverty reduc-
Outlook ing remittances and expansion of the Tar-
geted Social Assistance (TSA) program
tion. Continued challenges in the financial
sector would also diminish poverty reduc-
envisaged by the Law on Social Assis- tion pace through lower access to credit in
The economy is projected to grow by an tance. The nationwide poverty rate is pro- pro-poor sectors of the economy and slow
average rate of 5.2 percent a year over the jected to fall from 30.3 percent in 2016 to the pace of job creation in low-skill sectors,
medium term, supported mainly by the 25.7 percent by 2019. such as construction and agriculture.
TABLE 2 Tajikistan / Macro poverty outlook indicators (annual percent change unless indicated otherwise)
So urces: Wo rld B ank, M acro eco no mics and Fiscal M anagement Glo bal P ractice, and P o verty and Equity Glo bal P ractice.
No tes: e=estimate, f = fo recast.
(a) Calculatio ns based o n 2016 HB S. A ctual data: 2014, 2015, 2016. Fo recast are fro m 2017 to 2019
(b) P ro jectio n using neutral distributio n (2016) with pass-thro ugh = (0.7) based o n GDP per capita co nstant P P P .
MPO 79 Oct 17
Selected Country Pages ● 97
FIGURE 1 Turkey / Real GDP growth and contributions to FIGURE 2 Turkey / Actual and projected poverty rates and
real GDP growth real GDP per capita
Percent, percentage points Poverty rate (%) GDP per capita (constant LCU)
15% 40 25000
35
10% 20000
30
5% 25 15000
20
0%
15 10000
-5% 10
5000
5
-10%
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 0 0
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Private Consumption Government Spending
Investment Net Exports International poverty rate Upper middle-income pov. rate
Stocks Growth GDP pc
Sources: Turkstat and World Bank staff calculation. Sources: World Bank (see notes to Table 2).
MPO 80 Oct 17
98 ● World Bank ECA Economic Update October 2017
be implemented and investor confidence open foreign exchange positions with its
Outlook resumes, private investment is expected to
gradually pick up in the medium-term.
substantial rollover needs leaves Turkey
vulnerable to changes in investor senti-
Poverty is forecast to decrease at a slower ment and external conditions. In an ad-
Growth is expected to rebound to 4 per- pace, as the labor market environment verse scenario of tighter global liquidity, a
cent in 2017 from 3.2 percent in 2016 and remains constrained. The poverty rate is new round of lira depreciation would put
may be slightly higher given strong per- estimated to decline to 9.3 percent in 2017 severe strains on corporate balance sheets,
formance in Q2. Temporary fiscal stimu- and further to 8.9 percent in 2018. This depressing private investment and lower-
lus together with credit facilitation are forecast could improve if the structural ing GDP growth. Tighter global liquidity
expected to support private and public reform agenda regains momentum and conditions might constrain domestic cred-
consumption in 2017. The fiscal deficit is higher productivity jobs are created. For it growth and domestic demand in the
expected to widen to 2.1 percent of GDP people with lower skills, there are increas- medium term. Rigorous progress in ad-
and the primary budget balance to be ing policy efforts to connect them to acti- vancing structural reforms will be key to
slightly negative. Exports are likely to vation programs that will pay off if the restoring investor confidence, mitigating
grow in 2017 fueled by rising external labor market picks up. vulnerabilities, and supporting growth.
demand and an increase in competitive- The government’s employment mobiliza-
ness. While rebounding domestic demand tion campaign started in February 2017
will stimulate import growth, net exports
are still expected to contribute substantial-
Risks and challenges aims to create 2 million new jobs to con-
tain the rise in joblessness. The campaign
ly to GDP growth in 2017. Private invest- includes a subsidy to employers on sala-
ment is likely to remain weak in 2017 as Unless longstanding structural weakness- ries of new formal hires for 12 months.
business confidence recovers slowly. The es are addressed, over the medium-term From a sustainability perspective, there is
current account deficit is expected to in- Turkey will face the risk of slower growth, a risk that the new jobs will disappear
crease to 4.7 percent of GDP in 2017 due below the impressive performance over after the subsidy is withdrawn. From an
to a rising energy and gold deficit. Infla- the last decade. The quality of growth has equity perspective, since most formal jobs
tion is likely to remain above target. With weakened in the past few years, as go to the non-poor, the effects of the cam-
the unwinding of the fiscal stimulus, productivity growth has stagnated and paign will disproportionately benefit
GDP growth is expected to slow to 3.5 investment spending was mostly driven higher income households. The main chal-
percent in 2018, before picking up to 4 by construction. Domestic saving rates lenge will be how to promote a more in-
percent in 2019 as the economic outlook consistently below investment sustain clusive mix of beneficiaries and improve
improves and political uncertainty eases. Turkey’s high dependence on external the distributive impacts of the campaign.
Provided structural reforms continue to financing. The corporate sector’s sizeable
TABLE 2 Turkey / Macro poverty outlook indicators (annual percent change unless indicated otherwise)
So urces: Wo rld B ank, M acro eco no mics and Fiscal M anagement Glo bal P ractice, and P o verty and Equity Glo bal P ractice.
No tes: e = estimate, f = fo recast.
(a) Calculatio ns based o n ECA P OV harmo nizatio n, using 2008-HICES and 2014-HICES. A ctual data: 2014. No wcast: 2015 - 2016. Fo recast are fro m 2017 to 2019.
(b) P ro jectio n using po int-to -po int elasticity (2008-2014) �
with pass-thro ugh = 1based o n GDP per capita in co nstant LCU.
MPO 81 Oct 17
Selected Country Pages ● 99
FIGURE 1 Turkmenistan / Real GDP growth and gas prices FIGURE 2 Turkmenistan / Exchange rate and oil prices
0 -50 0.20 0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017f 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017f
Real GDP growth (LHS) Change in gas prices (RHS) Exchange rate, USD/TMT (LHS) Oil prices, average (RHS)
MPO 82 Oct 17
100 ● World Bank ECA Economic Update October 2017
od—despite the continued expansion of carbon prices or reduced demand for the continue to dominate the economy and
gas exports to China. country’s natural-gas exports, either of the formal labor market. Foreign direct
The external position will continue to im- which could be caused by a sharper-than- investment remains limited outside the
prove thanks to higher hydrocarbon ex- expected slowdown in the Chinese econo- hydrocarbon sector. Deeper structural
ports. The current account deficit is ex- my. A deteriorating external environment reforms and improvements in the invest-
pected to be financed by inflows of foreign could affect hydrocarbon exports and ment climate could help to attract inves-
direct investment and other capital in- widen the external and fiscal gaps, in- tors in the non-hydrocarbon sectors and
flows, allowing the central bank to protect creasing pressure on the exchange rate leverage the broader potential of Turk-
its official reserves and maintain the ex- and depressing domestic demand. Do- menistan’s economy.
change-rate peg. Fiscal consolidation is mestic risks include slowing momentum The long-term sustainable and inclusive
expected to continue, which should on the structural reform agenda as well as development of Turkmenistan will de-
strengthen fiscal and debt sustainability. a reversal of the ongoing efforts to pro- pend on successful outcomes of the gov-
mote economic diversification and private ernment’s ongoing diversification efforts
sector development. aimed at expanding private sector activity.
Risks and challenges Tight administrative control span to social
and economic areas and the public sec-
The country may greatly benefit from
transforming its natural non-renewable
tor’s large overall role in economic activi- resources into a well-balanced portfolio of
Turkmenistan’s outlook is subject to both ty remain the key obstacles to private sec- high-yield financial assets, high-quality
external and domestic downside risks. tor development in Turkmenistan. The productive infrastructure, and high-
External risks include lower global hydro- public sector and state-owned monopolies skilled human capital.
TABLE 2 Turkmenistan / Macro poverty outlook indicators (annual percent change unless indicated otherwise)
So urces: Wo rld B ank, M acro eco no mics and Fiscal M anagement Glo bal P ractice, and P o verty and Equity Glo bal P ractice; Internatio nal M o netary Fund.
No tes: e = estimate; f = fo recast.
MPO 83 Oct 17
Selected Country Pages ● 101
FIGURE 1 Ukraine / Real GDP growth (yoy) and contribu- FIGURE 2 Ukraine / Actual and projected poverty rates and
tions to real GDP growth, by sector real private consumption per capita
Percent, percentage points Poverty rate (%) Private consumption per capita (constant LCU)
20 50 25000
10 40
20000
30
0
15000
20
-10
10000
10
-20
5000
0
-30 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
2015-Q1 2015-Q3 2016-Q1 2016-Q3 2017-Q1 -10 0
Agriculture Manufacturing International poverty rate Lower middle-income pov. rate
Domestic trade GDP Upper middle-income pov. rate Consumption pc
Source: Ukraine Statistics Service. Source: World Bank. Notes: see table 2.
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102 ● World Bank ECA Economic Update October 2017
remains very limited. The international the most important driver of increasing require external financing. Maintaining
reserves, however, continued to growth incomes for the bottom 40 percent. A cooperation with the IMF and other offi-
due to official borrowings and new Euro- modest rebound in the real sector— cial creditors will be important to meet
bond placement. including wage growth in the private sec- external financing needs and bolster in-
tor—will support growth of disposable vestor confidence.
income and a gradual decline in the pov- Medium term fiscal and external pres-
Outlook erty rate. However, the magnitude of this
improvement will depend on the growth
sures are projected to remain significant.
Despite the strong budget performance in
structure, especially growth in labor inten- 1H2017, the recent amendments to the
The outlook for economic growth remains sive sectors were most of the poor/ budget law will trigger widening of the
modest due to significant external and vulnerable are employed (trade, manufac- wage bill to 11.2 percent of GDP (vs 9.3
internal headwinds. Significant challenges turing, agriculture, construction). percent in 2016). Expenditures for Hous-
remain in accelerating reforms in a com- ing Utility Subsidy (HUS) are expected to
plex political environment. Growth is pro- reach 2.6 percent of GDP in 2017 (vs 1.8
jected at 2 percent in 2017 and 3.5 percent
in 2018. Renewed reform momentum
Risks and challenges percent in 2016). Fiscal risks are exacerbat-
ed by delays with realigning of the gas
could support faster economic recovery. tariffs, SOE privatization and planned
There are encouraging signs of a possible Addressing structural rigidities is critical increase in wage bill. In 2017 the general
increase in reform momentum, including for unlocking sustainable economic government deficit (including Naftogaz) is
the approval in the first reading of the growth and reducing external pressures. expected to widen to 3.6 percent of GDP
pension and health reform laws, advanced Deeper anticorruption reforms, further (vs 2.2 percent in 2016), while public and
discussions on land reform. Accelerating deregulation and improvement of busi- publicly guaranteed debt is projected to
reforms would boost annual growth to 4 ness climate, banking system stabilization reach 87 percent of GDP in 2017. In order
percent in the next two years, address and NPL resolution are critical for restor- to improve fiscal sustainability and reduce
macroeconomic vulnerabilities, and grad- ing FDI growth and improving domestic the debt pressures going forward, all
ually reduce poverty. productivity. Without structural reforms structural reforms should balance improv-
Against this background, the moderate to improve domestic productivity and to ing quality of services and fiscal afforda-
poverty rate (under 5.5 USD/day) is ex- increase FDI Ukraine will remain vulnera- bility to reduce gradually the fiscal deficit
pected to improve in 2017 but remain ele- ble to external shocks and commodity to 2 percent of GDP by 2020.
vated through to 2019. As public spending cycles. In order to finance the growing
is constrained, labor income will become deficit of the current account, Ukraine will
TABLE 2 Ukraine / Macro poverty outlook indicators (annual percent change unless indicated otherwise)
So urces: Wo rld B ank, M acro eco no mics and Fiscal M anagement Glo bal P ractice, and P o verty and Equity Glo bal P ractice.
No tes: e=estimate, f = fo recast.
(a) Calculatio ns based o n ECA P OV harmo nizatio n, using 2015-HLCS. A ctual data: 2014, 2015. No wcast: 2016 - 2016. Fo recast are fro m 2017 to 2019.
(b) P ro jectio n using neutral distributio n (2015) with pass-thro ugh = 0.7 based o n private co nsumptio n per capita in co nstant LCU.
MPO 85 Oct 17
Selected Country Pages ● 103
FIGURE 1 Uzbekistan / Real GDP growth and contributions FIGURE 2 Uzbekistan / Poverty, GDP per capita, and small
to real GDP growth business development
2,000 50
8
40
1,500
6
30
1,000
4 20
500 10
2
0 0
0 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016* Small business, % of GDP
Services Construction Agriculture GDP per capita, US$, lhs
Industry Net taxes GDP total National poverty rate, % of population, rhs
Sources: National poverty line is minimum food consumption equivalent to 2,100
Sources: Uzbekistan official statistics.
calories per person per day and it does not include non-food items.
Note: Poverty is national data. Due to the lack of access to microdata the World
Bank cannot verify/validate the official figures/trends after 2003.
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104 ● World Bank ECA Economic Update October 2017
The authorities also announced the re- oriented reforms, this will be an im- plementation in the second half of 2018
moval of restrictions to exchange rate con- portant step to reduce market distortions becomes more entrenched, reducing un-
vertibility, including the surrender re- and encourage private investment in the certainty and supporting private invest-
quirements (by which firms were mandat- economy. Fiscal policy will likely be less ment and export oriented growth. Private
ed to sale a portion of their export reve- expansionary to help reign on inflation, investment (including FDI) is expected to
nues to the CBU at the official exchange with budget spending geared towards rise over the medium term.
rate), widening private participation in the mitigating the impact of the exchange While data limitations do not allow for
foreign exchange market. rate adjustment on the vulnerable popu- poverty projections, we expect that in-
Although validation is not possible due to lation, supporting critical SOEs and sus- creased income growth and revival of net
lack of access to official micro data, the taining the public investment program. remittances by 2019 to continue progress
official poverty rate declined from 12.8 Monetary policy is expected to be more in reducing unemployment and poverty
percent in 2015 and an estimated 12.4 per- restrained to contain inflation. A pickup over the near term.
cent in 2016, driven by robust economic in global prices on the main Uzbek export
growth, small business development, and commodities (e.g. gas, copper, and cot-
targeted social safety net. The distribution
of income has become more equitable over
ton) in 2017-18 will help narrow the trade
deficit, while improved prospects of net
Risks and challenges
time, and the official Gini coefficient fell remittances will keep the current account
from 0.39 in 2001 to 0.29 in 2013. Howev- in small surplus. Uzbekistan’s economy faces upside and
er, the official unemployment rate was at Our baseline scenario projects a modera- downside risks. On the upside, there are
5.2 percent in H1 2017, same as in 2016. tion of growth to 6.2 percent for 2017 as benign prospects for commodity prices,
investment growth is slowing, and 5.6 and accelerated private investment due to
percent in 2018 as transitional adjustments a greater than envisaged improvement of
Outlook unravel, given uncertainties, and the fact
that remaining rigidities in the economy
the investment climate in the context of
ongoing reform efforts. On the downside,
may not allow for a sufficiently rapid ad- a slower recovery in the Russian economy
The outlook is predicated on the imple- justment to take advantage of a more com- due to additional Western sanctions in
mentation of the reform agenda, includ- petitive exchange rate. Higher growth August 2017, potential delays in other
ing on exchange rate convertibility. If should rebound over the medium term structural reforms and higher inflation
accompanied by complementary market- (up to 6.3 percent in 2019) as reform im- could undermine growth prospects.
TABLE 2 Uzbekistan / Macro poverty outlook indicators (annual percent change unless indicated otherwise)
So urces: Wo rld B ank, M acro eco no mics and Fiscal M anagement Glo bal P ractice, and P o verty and Equity Glo bal P ractice.
No tes: e=estimate, f = fo recast.
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