Using GIS in Identifying High Risk Areas

For Fatal Traffic Accidents

of Motorcycle Riders in Quezon City

Bryle Anjo Mabus

Krystine Pearl Robles

Thesis Adviser:
Engr. Ransie Joy A. Apura, M.Sc.

University of the Philippines Department of Geodetic Engineering

and Training Center for Applied Geodesy and Photogrammetry

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Outline
Introduction
Significance of the Study
Research Problem
Objective of the Study
Review of Related Literature
Research Methods and Materials
Study Area
Methodology
Data Requirement and Instrument Availability
Expected Research Output
Budget
Timeline
Reference

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Introduction
1.23 million people around the world die due to road traffic injuries annually and
in 2015, road traffic injuries ranked 10th in causes of death worldwide. Gross National
Product (GDP) losses amount to 1-2% because of these events. In the Philippines, cost of
road traffic injuries is 2.6% of GDP in 2013 that is alarmingly higher than the global
average.
According to a study made by Metropolitan Manila Development Authority
(MMDA) in 2016, road mishaps kill 8,499 Filipinos a year and there were 90,258 recorded
accidents in Metro Manila alone. The 2016 study conducted by the MMDA showed
reckless motorcycle riding as the top cause of deaths and injuries of the metropolis. The
Department of Health’s (DOH) 2015 report concluded the same reports as they stated that
around 20,000 cases or 65% of total patients injured were riding a motorcycle.
This study focuses on the traffic accidents resulting in death of motorcycle riders
in Quezon city. A data collated by the MMDA through its Metro Manila Accident
Recording and Analysis System program showed Quezon city as the city with the highest
number of accidents with 33,717 followed by Makati (12,505) and Manila (11,307).
Due to the colossal consequences of this grave issue, in the past few years, various
researches have been done in various contries, usually in highly populated cities, on the
role of demographic and environmental factors in frequency, spatial distribution and
severity of traffic crashes in urban areas, using spatial analysis and statistical methods.
Traffic condition has gotten worse in the Metro Manila in the recent years due to
overpopulation, lack of roads, and many other factors. A big part of traffic crashes in Metro
Manila occur due to environmental factors such as type, quality and capacity of the roads
and streets. Studying these cases on the roads and streets of a densely populated city like
Quezon City by analyzing the environmental factors of such traffic crashes can be a great
help to correctly pinpoint the environmental factors of such crashes and their contribution.
Better planning so that the reduction of this type of risk factors can be done with the help
of the result of the study.

Significance of the Study

Quezon City houses a significant number of road networks that serve as important
thoroughfares within Metro Manila. Adding to its 3 circumferential roads and 4 radial roads
are a vast web of minor and major roads that lead to the heart of the city’s residential areas,
business establishments, and educational institutions, among many others.
Coupled with the existence of its complex road networks is the prevalence of traffic
accidents. According to a study conducted in 2016 by the Metropolitan Manila
Development Authority (MMDA), Quezon City had the highest number of accidents with
a record of 33,717. It also topped the list in terms of fatalities with 116 deaths. In order to
proactively respond to these accidents, the identification of traffic crash-prone areas within
the city should become a requirement, more so a necessity.
Geographic Information System (GIS) provides a platform to effectively develop
accident countermeasures using its ability to spatially analyze these accidents using
attributes such as location, time of occurrence, type of vehicle, etc. GIS also has the
capability to visually display data and results which allows for a more comprehensive and

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knowledgeable analysis. Results gathered using this method can also be conveniently
stored within the system, making the data easily accessible for further use and analysis.

Research Problem

This thesis project aims to determine, through GIS, whether there is an existing
relationship between parameters such as traffic conditions and policies, environmental
factors and prevalence of traffic accident.
There is a need to identify areas that are prone to motorcycle accidents, especially
those with high fatality record, in order to help the authorities implement an improved
framework of traffic management policies.
Specifically, the methodology that will be developed will be based on GIS which
is an excellent tool for map creation. The resulting output would be maps that show areas
prone to traffic accidents.

Objectives of the Study

The conduct of this thesis study is centered on the following goals and objectives:
• To identify high risk areas for traffic accidents resulting in death of Motorcycle
riders in Quezon City using GIS
• To determine which environmental factors of the roads and streets contribute to the
deaths
• To determine relevant trends or patterns of traffic accidents and be able to relate it
to land use, road conditions, volume of vehicles, etc.
• To be able to apply and relate the trends and environmental factors found to other
places not just in Quezon City to find other high risk areas

Review of Related Literature

1. 2015 MMRAS Data: Motorcycles Top MMDA's Vehicles Involved In

Accidents List
According to a released 2015 data of the Metropolitan Manila Development Authority
(MMDA), motorcycles topped the list of vehicular accidents with the highest number of
deaths and injuries. The data gathered recorded 262 deaths and 11,620 injuries due to
motorcycle accidents. Majority of the vehicular accidents occurred along Commonwealth
Avenue and EDSA. The organization also explained that the increase of deaths and injuries,
was the failure of motorists to use lanes designated for motorcycles. Other factors
considered for the increase in motorcycle accidents are: Human error, cheap and low-
quality motorcycles being sold, worsening traffic and road conditions in the metro. The
worsening traffic and the chap and low quality of motorcycles being sold are correlated in
the sense that because of the worsening traffics, commuters are bound to use cheap and
low-quality motorcycles to beat the traffic.

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 2. The Local Government of Quezon City
The study will concentrate on the area of Quezon City. It covers approximately 165.3 km².
It consists of 6 districts. It is located near the center of Metro Manila, toward its
northeastern position. It is connected to Manila on its southwest corner, Caloocan City and
Valenzuela City on its west and northwest, San Juan and Mandaluyong City on its south,
Marikina City and Pasig City on its southeast. San Jose del Monte City in Bulacan on its
north and Rodriguez and San Mateo, both in Rizal, on its east. It is a strategic convergence
point for the roads and transportation networks because it is located at the heart of Metro
Manila. It is highly accessible from the major highways, thoroughfares and trains of the
metropolis.
It is the largest among the 16 cities of the Metro Manila or the National Capital Region
(NCR). It is also the most populated city in NCR with a population of almost three million
people. It consists of 24% of the regional population.
The land use in this area is comprised of 7.27% for commercial, 4.17% for residential,
1.41% for open space, 15.13% for reservoir, 7.76% for vacant, 14.24% for roads and
highways and 0.35% for waterways

3. Metro Crowded with 2.5m autos

Traffic condition has gotten worse in the Metro Manila in the recent years due to
overpopulation, lack of roads, and many other factors. In 2013, the Land Transportation
Office (LTO) listed a total of 2,101,148 motor vehicles registered in NCR or 27% of the
country’s 7,690,038 total registered motor vehicles. In 2015, the total motor vehicles in
Metro Manila has already peaked at 2.5 million. According to Lawyer Emerson Carlos,
MMDA assistant general manager for operations, motorists experiences monstrous traffic
because of increasing number of road accidents that was caused by undisciplined drivers
and the ongoing infrastructure constructions and road projects.

4. Identification of traffic accident risk-prone areas under low-light conditions

Road travel safety deals with various problems as for there are some factors that contribute
to its disturbance. The behavior of a driver, deterioration of infrastructure, weather
conditions, light conditions and intensification of traffic. Traffic is proportional to
accidents. As the traffic continuous to increase, the number of accidents increases
significantly thus road safety becomes more difficult to attain.
A buffer zone of 500m were used and distributed around the study area. The vulnerable
locations were identified based on the calculation of the injury rate within this buffer zones.
The linear dependence between the low light and the number of traffic accidents were
determined as well as the consequences induced by their occurrence enabled the study to
identify the areas of high traffic accident risk.

5. Identification of Accident Black-Spots in 18 Michigan Freeways using GIS

The study discuses the present traffic accident information on 18 freeways in Michigan.
GIS was used as a software to identify the high accident locations (black spots) and safety

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deficient areas on the highway. Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) and the Point Density
Estimation (PDE) as a statistical technique for black-spot identification.

6. The Conventional Method to Identify Highway Black-Spots

Table 1. Method of identifying highway Black-spots of different countries.

Abovementioned shows how section length varies from one country to another and
how frequent accident occur on a subject area for it to be identified as a black-spots
location. One method to identify black-spots includes dividing the road section into
constant lengths, where the total length is divided into 300-, 500-, and 1,000-meter road
sections. However, this method is inaccurate because the section length is constant where
accidents within each section may not be related to each other.

7. Accident and traffic analysis using GIS

The study analyzes the present state of traffic accident information on three high ways
namely NH 47 Gandhipuram to Avinashi, NH-209 from Gandhipuram to Annur and NH
67 Gandipuram to Mettupalayam, Coimbatore District. It discussed how they utilize
ArcGis software to identify high accident rate locations. Open Series Map (OSM) was used
as a spatial. Accident details as non-spatial data. Date of accident, time, type of accidents,
vehicles involved, gender, licensed or non licensed, drunk and drive etc. These details were
collected from authorities. Ground control points were collected using hand held GPS in
WGS 1984 datum then the accident converted files were converted into shapefiles. To
analyze the results, buffer analysis was used to find the in and around of accident locations.
Accident spot were categorized into safe, injured or dead. GIS analysis also shows multi-
specialty hospitals nearby. Police Jurisdictions was also made to determine if the accident
spots come under the jurisdiction of a police station. Overlay analysis was then used for
optimal site selection or suitability modeling.

8. Accident Black-Spot Validation using GIS

The study is an attempt to develop data analysis tools that can help prioritize the study
of the most accident-prone intersections amongst all the intersections in a study area. Data
taken from the net, was digitized and used in computer based analysis.
Various factors, which influences the occurrence of accidents on roads, are assigned
weights on a scale of 0-10.

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 Final weight assigned to each road is obtained by adding all the computed weights
and normalizing the value using its maximum weight.

9. Development of Traffic Accident Analysis System using GIS

The civil engineering research institute of Hokkaido, Japan has developed a traffic
accident analysis system that uses a GIS. Arc View GIS Ver.3.2, a GIS software application
from ESRI, with Access, a database management software application from Microsoft
Corp. The data used for the database are the following: digital road map, traffic accident,
road, traffic volume and weather. Data items include road structure and road accessory
facilities. analysis capabilities of the system include data search, display of accident rate
and fatality rate, and data export to Excel. The system displays the analysis results such as
accidents and fatality rate of certain areas in a easy and understandable form.

10. GPS & GIS In Road Accident Mapping and Emergency Response
Management
Data cleaning had to be done for both the attribute and location information. Cross
checking was also done to ensure that all the attributes used were correct. Latitude and
longitude was also assigned to each accident location through the process of geocoding.
GIS proximity analysis was done to define the coverage or health facility catchments.
Hotspot analysis tool in ArcGIS software was used to determine the accident hotspots for
pedestrians and motorists. A spatial database was created with all data modeled as spatial
object and encoded in geospatial format, this database stores all accidents related data In a
central location and provides functions such as spatial query.

Research Methods and Materials

3.1 Study Area

The study will concentrate on the area of Quezon City. It covers approximately
165.3 km². It consists of 6 districts. It is located near the center of Metrop Manila, toward
its northeastern position. It is connected to Manila on its southwest corner, Caloocan City
and Valenzuela City on its west and northwest, San Juan and Mandaluyong City on its
south, Marikina City and Pasig City on its southeast. San Jose del Monte City in Bulacan
on its north and Rodriguez and San Mateo, both in Rizal, on its east. It is a strategic
convergence point for the roads and transportation networks because it is located at the
heart of Metro Manila. It is highly accessible from the major highways, thoroughfares and
trains of the metropolis.
It is the largest among the 16 cities of the Metro Manila or the National Capital Region
(NCR). It is also the most populated city in NCR with a population of almost three million
people. It consists of 24% of the regional population.

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The land use in this area is comprised of 7.27% for commercial, 4.17% for residential,
1.41% for open space, 15.13% for reservoir, 7.76% for vacant, 14.24% for roads and
highways and 0.35% for waterways

Figure 1: Google Map of Quezon City

3.2 Methodology

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 Figure 2. General Methodology

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Data and Sources
Accidents data will be requested from the Quezon city Police District (QCPD) for
2014, 2015 and 2016. Information on where the accident occurred, the timing, causes,
fatalities, outcomes, whether victims were taken to hospital, is the driver licensed,
intoxicated with alcohol and etc. will be compiled. OSM data of Quezon city with a 5 km
buffer will be downloaded. Data cleaning will be performed. Cross checking will be done
to ensure that all the attributes used were correct. Motorcycle information such as number
of registered motorcycles, top 3 brands of motorcycles sold, motorcycles that are prone to
injuries will be requested from motor cycle dealers and authorities. Traffic policies and
road conditions will be requested from the Quezon City Hall City Development office,
MMDA and QCPD.

Data Processing
Ground Control Points (GCP) will be collected with the help of hand held GPS in
WGS 1984 datum. The accident spot locations which the GCP will be integrated are then
converted into a shapefile. Analysis will then be done so that hot spots will be determined.
Network analysis will then be performed between the hotspots and the traffic policies, land
use, road conditions, motorcycle data and etc. Whether there is an existing relationship
between parameters such as traffic conditions and policies, environmental factors and
prevalence of traffic accident.

Data Analysis
Identification of patterns of the integrated accident spot locations will be done by
the use of various statistical techniques such as the Getis-Ord G and Moran’s I Index.
Overlay analysis will then be performed to locate the optimal site selection of the high risk
areas.

3.3 Data Requirement and Instrument Availability

The types of data that will be collected and constructed in this research are the following:

Traffic crash incidents leading to death of motorcycle riders in Quezon City

(Source: MMDA, PNP, LTO, LGUs)
- number of passengers, accurate location of the accident, date of the accident

Land Use Data/Map

(Source: Quezon City Hall City Development)
- functions of land (commercial, residential, agricultural, etc)

Motorcycle Data

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(Source: Motorcycle dealers, LTO, MMDA)
- top 3 brands that are sold, data of registered motorcycles in the city

Road Networks
(Source: Quezon City Hall City Development and MMDA)
- shapefile of transport infrastructure within the urban areas

Traffic Policies
(Source: Quezon City Hall City Development, LGUs and MMDA)
- traffic rules and regulation that are implemented in the city

Handheld GPS will also be used for GPS tagging of traffic crash locations.

3. Expected Research Output

• Map of high risk area of traffic accidents in Quezon city.
• Assessment of the relationship of traffic accidents to environmental factors of roads and
streets.
• Map of the distribution pattern of traffic accidents in Quezon city

4. Budget
The estimated budget is outlined below.

Amount
Votes (PHP)

Fuel and Transportation 3,000

Field Assistants 1,000

Total 4,000

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 5. Timeline
December January February March April May

2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th

Review of Related
Literature
Coordinate with
Authorities
Data Gathering

Pre- Processing

Processing

Spatial Analysis

Post Analysis

Manuscript

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6. Reference
• “Facts and Figures” 17 Dec. 2017. http://quezoncity.gov.ph/index.php/facts-and-
figures
• Moradi, Ali, et al. “Spatial Analysis to Identify High Risk Areas for Traffic
accidents Resulting in Death of Pedestrians in Tehran.” Medical Journal of the Islamic
Republic of Iran, Iran University of Medical Sciences, 2016,
www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5307606/
• Michon, J.D. Kathleen. “Motorcycle Accidents: Common Causes.”
Www.nolo.com, www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/motorcycle-accidents-common-
causes-30330.html
• Murray CJ, Lopez AD. The global burden of disease: Harvard University Press
Boston; 1996.
• “GIS-Based Spatial Analysis of Urban Traffic Accidents: Case Study in Mashhad,
Iran.”Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering (English Edition), Elsevier, 26
May 2017, www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2095756417301988
• “Vehicular Accidents in NCR Rise in 2016-MMDA.” Trade Union Congress of the
Philippines, 14 Feb. 2017, tucp.org.ph/2017/02/vehicular-accidents-ncr-rise-2016-mmda/.
• Jenalyn Villamarin On 04/04/16 AT 12:51 PM, et al. “2015 MMRAS Data:
Motorcycles Top MMDA's Vehicles Involved In Accidents List.” International Business
Times Philippines, 4 Apr. 2016, www.ibtimes.ph/2015-mmras-data-motorcycles-top-
mmda-vehicles-involved-accidents-list-1689
• Peden M. World report on road traffic injury prevention. WHO press; 2004.
• World Health Organization. Global status report on road safety:supporting a decade
of action. WHO press; 2013.

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