Wilkins regulator division unit sales per week by quarter

History through Q4 2004 Forecast Beginning Q1 2005

Revised October 7, 2004 Final File: FCSTMASTER

Prod Fiscal Year

Line Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total
PVB 1999 1,788 3,748 5,115 3,167 179,634
2000 2,097 4,008 5,532 3,123 191,880
2001 2,116 3,523 5,921 3,374 194,136
2002 2,352 4,092 6,824 3,968 224,072
2003 2,721 4,449 7,184 4,531 245,506
2004 3,029 5,786 9,451 4,231 292,465
2005 4,120 7,480 9,341 5,983 350,012
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010

FIRE 1999 36 43 18 13 1,432

VALVE 2000 47 32 34 24 1,777
2001 21 45 19 38 1,608
2002 36 38 28 43 1,886
2003 42 27 25 11 1,357
2004 22 26 28 29 1,371
2005 43 51 51 51 2,550
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
CMA Ratio Unadj F Adj F Deseasonalize
 Fire
PVB PVB PVB PVB PVB Valve
Year Qtr 12-720 34-720 1-720 34-420 1-420 Total Z2105

2001 1 2,108 6,716 10,688 7,158 842 27,512 122

2001 2 2,516 11,510 21,688 7,034 3,050 45,798 139
2001 3 2,954 18,438 40,814 9,026 5,736 76,968 54
2001 4 2,224 10,456 19,510 7,254 4,414 43,858 78
2002 1 1,788 9,464 9,824 6,968 2,536 30,580 18
2002 2 2,512 12,942 21,848 9,156 6,740 53,198 224
2002 3 3,540 21,640 48,936 8,134 6,454 88,704 138
2002 4 3,666 11,650 24,640 6,958 4,676 51,590 193
2003 1 3,546 11,270 12,400 5,208 2,948 35,372 124
2003 2 5,596 15,322 23,692 6,806 6,424 57,840 112
2003 3 5,948 19,424 47,904 10,446 9,666 93,388 25
2003 4 4,892 13,310 26,990 7,960 5,754 58,906 37
2004 1 4,311 10,214 13,851 7,397 3,609 39,382 79
2004 2 6,637 20,983 31,507 9,043 7,049 75,219 71
2004 3 7,823 27,492 66,644 11,233 9,676 122,868 68
2004 4 6,652 19,535 17,337 7,496 3,976 54,996 54
2005 1 6,235 28,020 11,163 384 2,357 48,159 85
 Fire Fire Fire Fire
Valve Valve Valve Valve
Z3000 Z3000IL Z3004 Z3004IL Total

77 1 20 50 270
240 - 144 67 590
138 3 25 32 252
275 36 59 49 497
301 (35) 48 132 464
133 - 35 103 495
175 - 15 42 370
251 10 50 63 557
213 2 32 170 541
150 3 46 40 351
64 139 26 77 331
57 3 18 22 137
108 49 23 26 285
105 52 26 90 344
151 2 62 77 360
114 84 44 86 382
199 140 66 90 580
 Forecast
12-mth
Part Q1 Unit Q2 Unit Q3 Unit Q4 Unit Plan Demand
No. Sales Sales Sales Sales Raw % Bill % 1,400/day
09/28/03 01/04/04 04/04/04 07/04/04
01/04/04 04/03/04 07/03/04 10/02/04

12-720 4,311 6,637 7,823 6,652 8.70% 10.60% 37,100

34-720 10,214 20,983 27,492 19,535 26.70% 25.10% 87,850
1-720 13,851 31,507 66,644 17,337 44.20% 44.10% 154,350
34-420 7,397 9,043 11,233 7,496 12.00% 12.00% 42,000
1-420 3,609 7,049 9,676 3,976 8.30% 8.20% 28,700

Total 39,382 75,219 122,868 54,996 100.00% 100 350,000

Days 64 65 64 63 250
Unit/Day 615 1,157 1,920 873 1,400

Total 292,463 350,000

Days 256 250
Unit/Day 1,142 1,400
 Forecast
12-mth
Q1 Unit Q2 Unit Q3 Unit Q4 Unit Plan Demand
Part No. Sales Sales Sales Sales Raw % Bill % 10.2/day
9/28/2003 1/4/2004 4/4/2004 7/4/2004
1/4/2004 4/3/2004 7/3/2004 10/2/2004

Z2105 79 71 68 54 19.8% 21.2% 540

Z3000 108 105 151 114 34.9% 38.8% 990
Z3000IL 49 52 2 84 13.6% 11.8% 300
Z3004 23 26 62 44 11.3% 8.2% 210
Z3004IL 26 90 77 86 20.4% 20.0% 510

Total 285 344 360 382 100.0% 100.0% 2,550

Days 64 65 64 63 250
Unit/Day 4 5 6 6 10

Total 1,371 2,550

Days 256 250
Unit/Day 5 10
Unemployment Rate
6.5
Oct-00 3.9 Q1 2001 3.90 6.0
Nov-00 3.9 Q2 2001 4.23 5.5
Dec-00 3.9 Q3 2001 4.40
Jan-01 4.2 Q4 2001 4.83 5.0
Feb-01 4.2 Q1 2002 5.53 4.5
Mar-01 4.3 Q2 2002 5.70 4.0
Apr-01 4.4 Q3 2002 5.83 3.5
May-01 4.3 Q4 2002 5.73
3.0
Jun-01 4.5 Q1 2003 5.87

Apr-01
Jun-01

Feb-02
Apr-02
Oct-00
Dec-00
Feb-01

Aug-01
Oct-01
Dec-01

Jun-02
Aug-02
Jul-01 4.6 Q2 2003 5.83
Aug-01 4.9 Q3 2003 6.13
Sep-01 5.0 Q4 2003 6.13
Seasonal Adjus
Oct-01 5.3 Q1 2004 5.87
Nov-01 5.6 Q2 2004 5.67
Dec-01 5.7 Q3 2004 5.57
Jan-02 5.7 Q4 2004 5.43 United States Unem
Feb-02 5.7 Q1 2004 5.43 7.00
Mar-02 5.7 6.00
Apr-02 5.9 5.00
May-02 5.8 4.00
Jun-02 5.8 3.00
Jul-02 5.8 2.00
Aug-02 5.7 1.00
Sep-02 5.7 0.00
Oct-02 5.7
001 001 001 001 002 002 002 002 003
Nov-02 5.9 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Dec-02 6.0 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1
Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q
Jan-03 5.8
Feb-03 5.9 Seasonal Adjuste
Mar-03 5.8
Apr-03 6.0
May-03 6.1
Jun-03 6.3
Jul-03 6.2
Aug-03 6.1
Sep-03 6.1
Oct-03 6.0
Nov-03 5.9
Dec-03 5.7
Jan-04 5.7
Feb-04 5.6
Mar-04 5.7
Apr-04 5.5
May-04 5.6
Jun-04 5.6
Jul-04 5.5
Aug-04 5.4
Sep-04 5.4
Oct-04 5.5
Nov-04 5.4
Dec-04 5.4
 Jun-01

Feb-02
Apr-02

Jun-03

Feb-04
Apr-04
Aug-01
Oct-01
Dec-01

Jun-02
Aug-02
Oct-02
Dec-02
Feb-03
Apr-03

Aug-03
Oct-03
Dec-03

Jun-04
Aug-04
Oct-04
Dec-04
Seasonal Adjusted Unemployment Rate

United States Unemployment Rate

1
002 002 002 002 003 003 003 003 004 004 004 004 004
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1
Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q
Seasonal Adjusted Unemployment Rate
Bank Prime Loan
10.00
Oct-00 9.50 Q1 2001 9.50
9.00
Nov-00 9.50 Q2 2001 8.62
Dec-00 9.50 Q3 2001 7.34 8.00
Jan-01 9.05 Q4 2001 6.57
Feb-01 8.50 Q1 2002 5.16 7.00
Mar-01 8.32 Q2 2002 4.75
Apr-01 7.80 Q3 2002 4.75 6.00
May-01 7.24 Q4 2002 4.75
5.00
Jun-01 6.98 Q1 2003 4.45
Jul-01 6.75 Q2 2003 4.25 4.00
Aug-01 6.67 Q3 2003 4.24
Sep-01 6.28 Q4 2003 4.00 3.00

Oct-00
Dec-00

Jun-01
Aug-01
Oct-01
Dec-01

Jun-02
Aug-02
Oct-02
Dec-02
Feb-01
Apr-01

Feb-02
Apr-02

Feb-03
Oct-01 5.53 Q1 2004 4.00
Nov-01 5.10 Q2 2004 4.00
Dec-01 4.84 Q3 2004 4.00
Jan-02 4.75 Q4 2004 4.42 Bank Prime R

B a n k P r im e L o a n R a te
Feb-02 4.75 Q1 2004 4.94
Mar-02 4.75
Apr-02 4.75
May-02 4.75
Jun-02 4.75
Jul-02 4.75
Aug-02 4.75
Average Quarterly
Sep-02 4.75 Interest in Money and Ca
Oct-02 4.75
10.00
Nov-02 4.35
8.00
Dec-02 4.25
6.00
Jan-03 4.25
4.00
Feb-03 4.25
2.00
Mar-03 4.25 0.00
Apr-03 4.25
May-03 4.25
Jun-03 4.22
Jul-03 4.00 Bank Prime
Aug-03 4.00
Sep-03 4.00
Oct-03 4.00
Nov-03 4.00
Dec-03 4.00
Jan-04 4.00
Feb-04 4.00
Mar-04 4.00
Apr-04 4.00
May-04 4.00
Jun-04 4.01
Jul-04 4.25
Aug-04 4.43
Sep-04 4.58
Oct-04 4.75
Nov-04 4.93
Dec-04 5.15
 Jun-01
Aug-01
Oct-01
Dec-01
Feb-02
Apr-02
Jun-02
Aug-02
Oct-02
Dec-02
Feb-03

Bank Prime Rate

Apr-03
Jun-03

Average Quarterly Rate of

Aug-03

Bank Prime Loan Rate

Oct-03
Dec-03

Interest in Money and Capital Markets

Feb-04
Apr-04
Jun-04
Aug-04
Oct-04
Dec-04
 Housing Starts

Single Units Multi-UnitTotal 600

1 Oct-00 275 82 357
2 Jan-01 274 74 348 500

3 Apr-01 374 87 461 400

4 Jul-01 341 88 429
300
5 Oct-01 285 81 366
6 Jan-02 293 76 369 200
7 Apr-02 386 89 475
100
8 Jul-02 361 98 459
9 Oct-02 319 84 403 0

37165

37257

37347

37438
36800

36892

36982

37073

37530
10 Jan-03 304 71 375
11 Apr-03 406 84 490
Column J
12 Jul-03 412 99 511 Column L
13 Oct-03 377 95 472
14 Jan-04 345 80 425
15 Apr-04 456 84 540
16 Jul-04 440 92 532
17 Oct-04 370 90 460
 37073

37165

37257

37347

Column J
Column L
37438

37530

37622

37712

37803

37895

Column K
37987

38078

38169

38261
 Prod Fiscal Year
Line Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total
PVB

2001 27,508 45,799 76,973 43,862 194,136

2002 30,576 53,196 88,712 51,584 224,072
2003 35,373 57,837 93,392 58,903 245,506
2004 39,377 75,218 122,863 55,003 292,465
2005 53,560 97,240 121,433 77,779 350,012

Deseaonal
Fiscal
Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
1999 - - - -
2000 - - - -
2001 49,397.40 47,406.64 48,322.51 49,609.87
2002 54,906.75 55,063.29 55,692.08 58,343.79
2003 63,520.94 59,867.19 58,630.11 66,621.91
2004 70,711.11 77,858.30 77,131.57 62,210.83
2005 96,180.19 100,653.32 76,233.84 87,971.50
Avg Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

48,536 0.56676 0.9436186 1.585911 0.90371

56,017 0.545834 0.9496403 1.583662 0.920863
61,376 0.57633 0.9423352 1.521631 0.959703
73,115 0.538561 1.0287594 1.680402 0.752278
87,503
0.556871 0.9660884 1.592902 0.884139

Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
1999
2000
2001 49812.81 45529.662 49386.67 49658.18
2002 55368.5 52883.161 56918.53 58400.6
2003 64055.14 57496.868 59921.27 66686.78
2004 71305.77 74775.653 78830.17 62271.41
2005 96989.03 96668.144 77912.67 88057.16
Time Deseasonalised Data Forecast Period Baseline Trend
1 49812.815 Q1 17 44385 30392.60
2 45529.662 Q2 18 44385 32180.40
3 49386.671 Q3 19 44385 33968.20
4 49658.175 Q4 20 44385 35756.00
5 55368.497
6 52883.161
7 56918.534
8 58400.604
9 64055.136
Chart Title
90000.000
10 57496.868
11 59921.271 80000.000
12 66686.779 70000.000 f(x) = 1787.7952217839x + 44385.0642089152
13 71305.773 R² = 0.783261826
14 74775.653 60000.000
15 78830.168 50000.000
16 62271.410
40000.000

30000.000

20000.000

10000.000

0.000
0 2 4 6 8 10
 Deseasonal SI Seasonal Actual Difference
74777.6 0.556871458 41641.51111 53560 11918.4889
76565.4 0.966088363 73968.94197 97240 23271.058
78353.2 1.59290155 124808.9338 121433 -3375.9338
80141 0.884138629 70855.75385 77779 6923.24615

Chart Title

7952217839x + 44385.0642089152
61826

4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
Forecast Period Deseasonal Detrended Trend Deseasonal Unadjusted
Simple Mean Forecast Forecast Seasonal Forecast
Q1 17 44385 30393 74778 41642
Q2 18 44385 32180 76565 73969
Q3 19 44385 33968 78353 124809
Q4 20 44385 35756 80141 70856
PVB Demand
Forecast SI
53560 0.556871
97240 0.966088
121433 1.592902
77779 0.884139