Energy 35 (2010) 1724–1729

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Energy
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/energy

Development of future energy scenarios with intelligent

algorithms: Case of hydro in Turkey
Didem Cinar a, *, Gulgun Kayakutlu a, Tugrul Daim b
a
Istanbul Technical University, Department of Industrial Engineering, Istanbul, Turkey
b
Portland State University, Portland, OR, USA

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: Energy production is considered as one of the key indicators for economic development. It is vital to
Received 25 May 2009 improve the renewable energy production for global sustainability, while leveraging the national
Received in revised form resources. This study is contributing to the demonstration of using genetic algorithms (GA) in the
2 October 2009
development of future energy scenarios as well as to the strategic energy studies in Turkey. The fore-
Accepted 21 December 2009
Available online 20 January 2010
casting model developed in this study uses forward feeding back-propagation (BP) method improved by
GA. The proposed model is applied in the Turkish case. The test errors are shown to emphasize the
positive difference between the proposed model and the classical BP model. The results highlight that
Keywords:
Renewable energy there is strong evidence indicating that the government should reconsider their current energy
Neural networks strategies.
Back-propagation Ó 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Genetic algorithms

1. Introduction study as a representative of renewable energy resources in Turkey

Energy sustainability, stability and variety are considered to be
vital for the economic development. Since energy is an inevitable
input for all industries, the sustainable supply of energy resources
becomes an essential part of the national economical strategies.
Availability of energy resources at a reasonable cost and energy
utilization without causing negative social effects are essential. It is
well known that the supply of fossil energy is finite whereas
renewable energy sources including hydropower are generally
considered to be available and sustainable over the relatively long
term timelines [1]. Hence, it is important to balance the use of fossil
and green energy production, which can be accomplished by
determining the available domestic resources and making changes
in the energy policies accordingly [2].
Turkey is analyzed as a case study because it is a representative
of many countries that are highly dependent on fossil energy, and
will be more, unless more attention is paid to the renewable energy
resources [3]. Share of fossil energy importation in 1970 was 24.59%
and grew three times to become 73.19% in 2006 [4]. It is evident
that renewable energy must be used more widely to be less
dependent on foreign resources [5]. Hydro energy is taken in this
* Corresponding author. Istanbul Technical University, Department of Industrial
Engineering 34367 Maçka, Istanbul, Turkey. Tel.: þ90 212 293 13 00; fax: þ90 212
240 72 60.
E-mail address: cinard@itu.edu.tr (D. Cinar).
after analyzing local energy forecasts. The choice is based on two
major reasons: i) Hydroelectric energy is one of the most abundant
resources of Turkey; and ii) deregulation to decentralize energy
investments is only completed for hydroelectric energy – studies
for the other renewable energies are on-going.
Forecasting the production of hydropower until 2012 will
provide input to strategies that can improve both national energy
policies and individual energy investments.
Many of the forecasting studies in the past used various forms of
econometric methods. These techniques need some assumptions
and cannot solve complex nonlinear patterns. Because of the
drawbacks of statistical techniques, recent studies have started
using artificial intelligence methods, like artificial neural networks
(ANN), genetic algorithms (GA) and ant colonies considering the
contingency [6–8]. ANN is widely accepted as an alternative way to
handle complex problems. Control, robotics, pattern recognition,
forecasting, medicine, power systems, manufacturing, optimiza-
tion, signal processing and social/psychological sciences are various
application areas that used ANN as in renewable energy problems
in diverse ways [9]. In this study, a hybrid forecasting model is
developed to integrate ANN techniques and GA. The forward
feeding back-propagation (BP) method is improved by calculating
the design parameters through the use of specific crossover and
mutation operations. Improvements with GA are observed in
literature to define the model or initial weights as proposed by
Wang and Huang [10]. This study contributes by completing the

0360-5442/$ – see front matter Ó 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.energy.2009.12.025
 D. Cinar et al. / Energy 35 (2010) 1724–1729
improvements with GA by predicting the number of nodes, initial
weights and the learning rate in the same chromosome. The
improvements will be discussed in comparison to the classical ANN
models.
The study has an amplified importance as nations increase their
focus on transitioning to renewable energy sources around the
globe. Hydro becomes even more critical at these times as many
other renewable energy sources such as wind or solar depend on
storage or balancing alternatives. Hydro is considered to be one of
the major alternatives for storage or balancing for these renewable
energy sources. Therefore development of scenarios for future
hydro production will provide key input into the development of
policies and strategies for the renewable energy alternatives.
This paper is so organized that the next section gives literature
review including forecasting energy and case of Turkey. The third
section will clarify the methodology and define the proposed
model. The application and the results will be given in section 4,
whereas, the last section will be reserved for conclusion and
recommendations.
2. Literature review
Different methods have been used in estimating energy demand
in different parts of the world.
Several models are driven from the economics. Zhang et al. [11]
and Bianco et al. [12] used linear regression models using gross
domestic product as a key variable. Demand forecasting was also
applied to forecasting electricity demand [13].
Another common approach is to use one of probabilistic,
statistical or optimization models. Magnano and Boland [14] use
a probabilistic model to forecast the electricity demand in Australia.
Mirasgedis et al. [15] used statistical models to forecast the elec-
tricity demand in Greece. Similarly Crilly and Zhelev [16] used an
optimization model for the same purpose.
One common weakness in these models is their inflexibility in
incorporation of multiple variables.
Another set approached focused on uncertainties around the
technological factors. Steenhof and Fulton [17,18] developed
scenarios to evaluate electricity generation in China and studied
factors influencing the generation significantly. Those scenarios
included different deviations from the business as usual model. Use
of scenarios for the energy sector is recommended to overcome the
shortcomings of probabilistic models or those based on optimiza-
tion [19]. Growth curves (S curves) are often used for technology
forecasting and were shown to be effective in forecasting electricity
consumption [20].
Other theories used in forecasting electricity demand included
grey system theory [21].
A recent research stream has started focusing on the use of
intelligent models in forecasting energy consumption. Pao [22]
used hybrid nonlinear models to forecast energy consumption in
Taiwan. Amjady and Keynia [23] used another hybrid algorithm for
a similar objective. Pao [24] used intelligent models to develop
forecasts for Taiwan’s electricity consumption.
A considerable part of the energy forecasting studies in Turkey
are kept in regional basis, such as prediction of natural gas
consumption in Ankara [25,26] and fuel consumption of Istanbul
[27], or based on industries such as total transport energy demand
[5] and residential heating energy requirement [28]. Regional
forecasting studies focused on the demand and consumption issues
of the region, while industry specific studies are inclined to seek the
future demand of particular market sector. To handle the ineffi-
ciency problem in energy sector a macro vision is required which is
fed with the findings of these micro scale studies.
1725
There are three major issues in energy policies of Turkey:
dependency on imports of primary energy, domination of fossil fuel
consumption and inefficiency in energy utilization [29]. Renewable
energy is a significant resource considered as an alternative for
fossil fuel consumption not only for Turkey but also for the world
[30]. Estimations on energy demand consider the cost of energy
investment and production as well as energy potential [31]. Ediger
and Tatlidil [32] showed that total energy demand in Turkey will be
around 130 million toes in 2010 whereas the gap between fossil
fuel consumption and production is growing enormously. The share
of domestic energy production is expected to stay at 41.2% in the
energy mix of Turkey in 2020.
Furthermore, Turkey requires 360 billion kWh energy produced
by other energy resources. Accordingly, renewable energy
resources should be used until the year 2050 to respond to the
requests [1]. In Turkey’s renewable energy usage, hydroelectric
energy has the biggest share. Yumurtacı and Asmaz [33] show that
economically usable hydroelectrical potential and yearly thermal
energy production are known to be approximately 125 billion kWh
and 688 billion kWh, respectively. Then, Turkey’s hydroelectric
energy potential can respond 33–46% of its electric energy demand
in 2020.
The survey in the energy field showed that no study has been
performed about the production of hydroelectric energy although
it is shown to be one of the most important renewable resources
in Turkey. In this paper, production of hydroelectric energy was
forecasted as an alternative to the imported fossil energy.
3. Methodology
3.1. ANN
ANN is a computational intelligence technique which takes
inspiration from the basic framework of the brain [34]. In recent
years, experts prefer ANN over classical statistical methods as
a forecasting model because it does not require any assumptions,
extrapolates from historical data to generate forecasts and solves
the complex nonlinear problems successively.
A feed-forward neural network is used for forecasting in general
[22–24,32,35,36]. In feed-forward neural networks signals flow
from the input layer to the output layer. Among the several learning
algorithms, BP algorithm is the most suitable method for training
multilayer feed-forward networks [37].
The network is composed of an input layer, some hidden layers
and an output layer. Each layer has a certain number of neurons
which are the basic processing elements of ANN. Neurons are
connected with the other neurons in further layers and each
connection has an associated weight. Each neuron is an operation
unit in ANN. The process starts with summation of weighted acti-
vation of other neurons through its incoming connections. Then the
weighted sum is passed through an activation function and this
activated value is the output of the neuron [9]. The Sigmoid function
1
f ðxÞ ¼ (1)
1 þ ex
is commonly used as an activation function because of nonlinearity
[38].
The net input of neuron j is
X
netj ¼ wij xi þ qj (2)
i
where xi’s are the outputs of the neurons in the previous layer, wij is
the synaptic weight of neuron i to neuron j, and qj is the bias which
is the constant value of the sigmoid function [38].
1726 D. Cinar et al. / Energy 35 (2010) 1724–1729
The most important section of ANN is training. The most
popular learning algorithm, BP is a gradient descent algorithm
which improves the resulting performance of the ANN by reducing
the total error by adjusting the weights along its gradient. Root
Mean Square Error (RMSE) is the most widely used error value,
which is calculated as
1X
E ¼ ðyk  ok Þ2 (3)
2 network with initial weights generated by GA for sales forecasting.
k
where ok is the output vector and k is the index for output units [9].
During BP learning, weights are modified according to their
contribution to the error function
vE
Dwij ¼ h (4)
vwij
where h is the learning rate which determines the magnitude of
changes to be made in the learning parameter. In order to calculate
the performance of different forecasting models, relative error (RE)
can be used:
P
ðyk  ok Þ2
k optimizing the number of hidden units. Finally, in the third model,
RE ¼ P (5)
y2k
k used for optimizing the number of hidden units. Azadeh et al. [6]
The disadvantages of BP as local convergence forces a variety of
improvements as using different combinations of the parameters
[39] or running with different random initial weights [40].
3.2. Genetic algorithms
GA is a stochastic search technique which searches the global
optimum without a differentiable objective function [41] but in
a set of alternative feasible solutions. One of the most important
points of GA is that it works on a population of chromosomes
instead of focusing on one point of solution space. At each stage the
population evolves and a new population is created with the
probability of survival of each chromosome in the population [41].
The probability of survival of a chromosome can be calculated by
the fitness value. GA involves three main operators; selection,
crossover and mutation. Selection is an evolution operator while
crossover and mutation are genetic operators. Parents are the
chromosomes which merge during crossover. Two different
children, called offsprings, can be evaluated by crossover which
merges two parents. The crossover rate is defined as the probability
of a chromosome to being selected for crossover. This means that
the number of offspring produced in each generation is designated
by this ratio. The height of crossover rate reduces the chances of
settling for a false optimum but increases the computational
time [41].
Similarly, the mutation rate is defined as the percentage of total
number of genes in the population. Mutation rate controls the
entrance of new genes and learning. If this ratio is too low, variety
of the solution space is limited. If it is too high, ability of learning
from the past will be lost [41].
3.3. GA improvements on ANN
There are many researches combining GA and ANN. The aims of
these combinations are handling the limitation of an algorithm and
evaluate better optimization techniques to find global solutions.
Identifying an appropriate neural network topology and parame-
ters for a specific problem is not an easy task. Among the variety of
methods to start ANN model with different parameters and
different structures GA improvements are of preference. In this
method, ANN parameters are encoded as chromosomes and each
chromosome represents an ANN architecture formed by parame-
ters on chromosomes. If GA is used together with BP, advantages of
the two methods are combined. Expectation is faster forecast with
global convergence. Castillo et al. [8] proposed a BP training ANN
architecture with initial weights and number of neurons in the
hidden layer selected by GA. Kuo [42] developed a fuzzy neural
Niska et al. [43] presented an integrated GA and ANN for forecasting
where GA identified the number of hidden layers and hidden
neurons in hidden layers and selecting the inputs of a multilayer
neural networks model. Kim and Bae [44] developed an ANN model
parameterized by GA for prediction of plasma processes. They
obtained better results than simple neural networks model.
Ferentinos [45] applied an ANN architecture, where type of
activation function and type of minimization algorithm were
decided by GA. Vlahogianni et al. [46] proposed three different
multilayer perceptrons model. In the first model, BP was used for
training and GA was used for optimizing learning rate, momentum
and the number of hidden units. In the second model, BP with
adaptive learning rate was used for training and GA was used for
scaled conjugant gradient descent was used for training and GA was
used GA for determining the ANN’s parameters for prediction of
electrical energy consumption. Results show benefits when
compared with classical time series approaches. Wang and Huang
[10] applied two neural networks model for Mackey and Glass’s
chaotic time series. One of these models is trained by GA and the
other is parameterized by GA. They indicated that ANN parame-
terized by GA outperforms ANN trained by GA for time series. Based
on the results of Wang and Huang [10], an ANN model which is
parameterized by GA will be developed.
All above research show results emphasizing that GA utilization
in determination of the topology and parameters of neural
networks can improve the effectiveness of training and forecasts.
3.4. Proposed forecasting model
One of the aims of this study is to develop an alternative ANN
forecasting model that is parameterized by GA. In most cases, one
hidden layer is sufficient to estimate the pattern of output. More
than one hidden layer can complicate and decelerate the model
[38]. So in this model, one hidden layer was used and the number of
hidden neurons was found by GA. Besides the number of hidden
units, initial weights and learning rate were determined by GA,
because BP’s performance depends on initial weights and learning
rate. BP can trap at local minima because of the initial weights.
Learning rate changes between 0 and 1 and is important for
convergence speed. If learning rate is close to zero, convergence of
model takes a very long time. If the rate is close to one, the model
tends to get trapped at local minima. It is necessary to try different
variants to find optimum learning rate for a specific problem.
Because of the critical roles of these topologic features and
parameters, the number of hidden units, initial weights and
learning rate were optimized by GA.
Every chromosome represents a neural network which carries
the features on genes. Three features mapped in this study are
listed in Table 1. Unnecessarily high number of hidden neurons
makes the model slow while very less number of hidden neurons
may not fit the pattern of the data. So the maximum number of
hidden neurons is specified as 30. In order not to saturate the
sigmoid, weights are initiated by using small random numbers in
the range [0.01, 0.01] [6].
 D. Cinar et al. / Energy 35 (2010) 1724–1729 1727

Table 1
Range of BP topology and parameters.

Name of topology and parameters Range

Number of hidden neurons [1, 30] Integer
Initial weight values [0.01, 0.01] Real number
Learning rate (0, 1) Real number

A sample chromosome is seen in Fig. 1. Every chromosome has

a different number of genes because of the differences between the
numbers of hidden neurons. The first and the last genes represent
the number of hidden neurons and learning rate respectively.
Remaining genes represent the initial weights between input and
hidden layers and between hidden and output layers. Fitness
function of the model is the error function which is found via
validation data set. After training every network (chromosome) on
training data set, a relative error (RE) value is found with validation
data set. Roulette wheel is the selection operator used in the model,
so that a chromosome with a better fitness value (lower RE value)
has a greater chance of being selected.
In the course of crossover, two chromosomes are selected
randomly as parents. Only the hidden neurons carrying the initial
weights can be interchanged. The number of interchanging genes is
determined by the chromosome which has small number of hidden
neurons. The operator carries out the multipoint crossover between Fig. 2. Crossover operator used in proposed model.

two chromosomes to create two new networks with hidden
neurons as a mixture of both parents. In Fig. 2, an example for
crossover is given. In this example the random number is 1, so one
random hidden neuron of both chromosomes change location.
In mutation operation, if the gene that carries the number of
hidden neurons mutates, a new integer random number between
1 and 30 will be the new value of gene. Therefore, two new oper-
ators were required: Addition operator is used for adding new
hidden neurons and in and out connection weights of these
neurons; Elimination operator eliminates the neurons and their
initial weights randomly, according to the change of the number of
hidden neurons. If the gene that carries a weight of a hidden neuron
modifies, a normal random variable with mean 0 and standard
deviation 1 will be added. Finally, if the last gene which represents
Fig. 1. A sample ANN and its gene structure.
the learning rate mutates, a random number that follows uniform
distribution with the interval (0, 1) will substitute the prior learning
rate. The mutation operator is used with an application probability
0.2 which was found empirically to obtain better results than did
lower or higher probabilities.
4. Case application
4.1. Hydroelectric energy forecast
There are many factors determining hydroelectric generation.
Global warming, drought, precipitation, evaporation, runoff (stream
flow), temperature, humidity, radiation, wind speed and soil
moisture are climatic parameters that affect hydroelectric genera-
tion are some of the generally accepted ones [47]. The factors other
than climate include water withdrawals, deliveries and consump-
tive use [48]. Also the factors of technology which are breakdowns,
maintenance, efficiency and installed capacity of hydroelectric
plants govern the generation [32]. Electric consumption is deter-
minative for energy production and the number of household and
amount of CO2 pollution are factors that affect electricity
consumption directly. Population, index of industrial production, oil
price, electricity price and gross national product (GNP) are
economic indicators used for forecasting energy consumption and
production [49]. So there are 29 driving forces which affect
hydroelectric generation directly and indirectly. Cinar and Kaya-
kutlu [50] forecasted hydroelectric generation of Turkey by ANN.
They used cognitive mapping technique for determining the direct
influencing factors for hydroelectric generation among the 29
factors mentioned below. According to their results electricity
consumption, installed capacity, global warming, runoff, tempera-
ture, drought, population, primary energy consumption and GNP
are the factors revealed through cognitive mapping. In this study,
electricity consumption, installed capacity, population, primary
energy consumption and GNP were used as inputs for an ANN
forecasting model. As the annual data for other factors (runoff,
temperature, global warming and drought) cannot be obtained or
not quantitative, they cannot be used for forecasting hydroelectric
generation. The factors used in the specified forecast are as
following:
1728 D. Cinar et al. / Energy 35 (2010) 1724–1729

Electricity consumption involves the total electricity consumption 60000

and importation of Turkey. 80% of electricity consumption is obtained
by thermal energy (40% natural gas, 28% lignite, 12% hard coal, fuel oil 50000
and motorin) while 20% is obtained by hydro energy [4]. Electricity
40000
consumption is effected by the energy prices but the consumption

GWh
amount influences the technology of energy production.
30000
Installed capacity is a factor of technology which effects hydro-
electric generation directly. It consists of financial, human resource 20000
and technology investments in potential production method.
Population has a direct relationship with hydroelectric 10000
consumption. However it is not possible to define that this relation
is linear because of the economical factors of Turkey. The pop- 0
ulation increases linearly but hydroelectric generation does not

70

73

76

79

82

85

88

91

94

97

00

03

06

09

12
19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

20

20

20

20

increase in such a way.
Primary energy consumption contains both the production and
importation of primary energy. Primary energy consumption is the
sum of hard coal, lignite, asphaltite, oil, natural gas, hydro, wind,
solar and biomass.
GNP is the index showing the national economical power which
is unavoidable for forecasting energy consumptions.
Hydroelectric generation and electricity consumption data were
collected from the Turkish Electricity Transmission Company.
Population and GNP data were received from the Turkish Central
Bank. Energy consumption data is taken from the Ministry of
Energy and National Resources.
The general shape of the ANN model is given in Fig. 3 which
places electric consumption, installed capacity, population, energy
consumption and GNP in the input layer and hydroelectric gener-
ation in output layer. All data were normalized between 0 and 1.
MATLAB software was used for programming the model. The data
were divided into three parts: first 29 data were used for training,
next 4 data were for validation and remaining 4 data were used for
testing the network. For determining the optimum topology and
parameters of neural network the proposed GA was run 30 times.
The minimum relative error for validation data through these 30
results was found as 0.166. According to these results of GA,
optimum neural network architecture has 28 hidden neurons and
learning rate is 0.2221. Initial weights for this model are also found
by proposed model. Consequently, the ANN model has been
developed using the above driven parameters and values for
hydroelectric production forecasting as an application of the
proposed hybrid model.
The hydroelectric energy generation values of Turkey were
predicted from 2007 to 2012. The results are shown in Fig. 4.
As can be seen in Fig. 4, hydroelectric energy generation is
growing rapidly in Turkey and it seems to be stable at this value up
to 2012. So it can be seen that investment on hydroelectric
generation will be raised but not exceed a certain limit until 2012.
4.2. Performance analysis
A classical ANN approach where parameters were found by
trial-and-error method was applied to estimate hydroelectric
Electricity consumption x1
Gross National Product x2 n1
. after a brief increase. The interesting part is that it almost overlaps
Primary energy consumption x3 . y
.
Hydroelectric
Installed capacity x4 generation
n26
Population x5
Fig. 3. A general ANN model for hydroelectricity forecasting.
20
Fig. 4. Forecasting results of hydroelectric generation.
generation as a benchmarking model. The neural network tool of
MATLAB was used for this model. For determining the number of
hidden units and learning rate, experiments with different
topology were performed. The minimum point of validation error
seems to be the appropriate neural network architecture for esti-
mating the hydroelectric generation. Different numbers of hidden
units (1–30) were applied and each topology was trained 100 times.
Validation errors of these networks were compared and a neural
network with 10 hidden units gives the best results (validation
error: 0.2101). Therefore 10 hidden units were used in the hidden
layer. The proposed model was compared with the classical neural
network model. Relative error of classical neural network is 0.305
while the proposed model is 0.0576 for test data set. In general, the
proposed hybrid model gives a better forecasting performance than
classic neural network model.
4.3. Forecast results
The real annual values for 1970–2006 are used to predict
hydroelectric generation of Turkey in the years 2007–2012. As can
be seen in Fig. 4, the hydroelectric production is growing in Turkey.
However the slope of increase seems to fall between 2010 and 2012.
Economic stagnancy can be a reason of the deceleration of energy
investments. Another possible reason is the policies about the
transition to alternative energy resources. If there is no strategy
change, Turkey might look for increasing the fossil energy imports
instead of giving the necessary interest in hydropower. Analysis of
the testing error emphasizes the accuracy of the predictions.
5. Discussion
Results presented in the case study as well as the demonstration
of use of the proposed model require further discussion.
The forecasted figures show a slight increase in the hydroelectric
energy production. This result leads us to an unavoidable research
of strategies to encourage increase in hydraulic energy production.
It is also obvious that one renewable resource cannot influence the
external independency but an integrated approach of production of
renewable resources should be considered.
One interesting observation is the leveling of the production
with the recent global economic crisis. Although it requires further
scrutiny, it would be worth to reexamine the variables used in this
model in terms of their power to predict such economic downturns.
It may very well be a coincidence, however there is a good future
research topic emerging from this finding.
Almost all important fossil fuels, such as oil, natural gas and high
quality coal are imported by Turkey, despite a high domestic
 D. Cinar et al. / Energy 35 (2010) 1724–1729
potential of renewable energy alternatives, hydro energy being one
of the leading resources. This research targeted to determine the
role of hydroelectric generation as a domestic resource in meeting
the energy demand. Accuracy of the predictions will undoubtedly
encourage the strategy changes in energy investments. Another
future research topic may focus on potential replacement scenarios
where other renewable sources coupled with hydro taking over
fossil fuel based alternatives.
This paper demonstrated an application of a hybrid model,
improving the forward feeding BP model with GA. The model is
applied in forecasting the annual hydroelectric generation. GA is an
efficient tool for reducing the probability of trapping in a local
solution for BP because of the feature of global search. The testing
errors achieved emphasize the success of the predictions when
compared with the classical BP model.
6. Conclusion
This study makes two major contributions:
1. An accurate model for hydroelectricity production is devel-
oped. This model can be incorporated into more comprehen-
sive models where other technological alternatives,
economical and political factors are used
2. A demonstration of a hybrid model, improving the forward
feeding BP model with GA is provided
The study can be enhanced by expanding the model in various
directions. However one should note that periodical reviews of
actual would help to modify the model through time. Despite
improved accuracies, it would not be wise solely to rely on prediction
models such as the one presented in this paper due to the discon-
tinuities caused by technological improvements and breakthroughs.
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