Geopolitics in Middle East

Middle East is one of the most geopolitically sensitive regions of the world. There
are two main factors responsible in shaping the geopolitics of the region.
1. Shia- Sunni Conflict
2. Creation of State of Israel
Shia- Sunni Conflict
Shia Sunni conflict is central to the tensions between the Islamic States of Middle East.
Although globally Muslim population is dominated by Sunni Muslims (85-90%), Middle
East is home to some major Shia Majority countries Iran, Iraq and Bahrain. In addition,
there are countries such as Lebanon, Yemen and Kuwait in which both Shia and Sunni
populations are present in very competitive ratio. Map below shows the distribution of
the Shia Population in the Middle Eastern countries.

The conflict has been led by Sunni dominated country, Saudi Arabia on one hand,
which is the birth place of Islam and considers itself the leader of the Islamic world.
On the other hand, Iran, which is the home to largest population of the Shias is an arch
rival of Saudi Arabia and aims to increase the power of Shia community in the region.
There has been a proxy war going on between the two countries, origin of which can
be traced to the Iranian revolution of 1979. Prior to 1979 revolution, Saudi Arabia was
the dominant power in the region and Iran was largely secular under the rule of Shah
of Pahlavi dynasty, who was a major ally of United States. Iraq was also secular under
the rule of Saddam Hussain’s bath Party. However, the Iranian revolution installed a
theocratic government in place which called for Islamic governments across the
region. Iraq which was also a Shia country felt the immediate threat of spread of
religious wave and that became a factor for Iran -Iraq war during 1980-88. Saudi
Arabia was one of the main supporters of Iraq during the war.
For subsequent almost two decades Iran remained week due to war, global sanctions
etc. and Saddam Hussain successfully averted any attempts of shia revolt in Iraq,
despite the Iraq being a Shia Majority country. So Saudi domination of the region
remained unchallenged. However, situation changed significantly after the Iraq war in
2003. Saddam Hussain, who suppressed the Shia power in Iraq was overthrown and
newly elected government, as a natural outcome of being a shia majority country, was
more inclined towards Iran. Its interests were now more aligned to Iran and that
emerged a threat for Saudi domination of the region. Since then Influence of Iran in
the region has grown significantly with strengthening of Shia Power.
Arab Spring since 2010, started political frictions and struggles across the region and
both Saudi Arabia and Iran have tried to take the leverage out of the prevailing political
situation in the countries of the region to further their interest. This has led to a situation
where although two countries are not directly engaged in the war, proxy-war between
them is ongoing in number of countries and in number of forms. Some of the instances
of the proxy war are following:
1. Syria: In Syria 75% population is sunni and 12% population is shia, However
the country has been led by the Syrian Bath Party of Hafeez and Bashar Al
Assad from almost last five decades. Assads are from Alawite sect of Islam,
which comes under Shia Islam. So it has been a rule of minority over majority
during all this while. When revolt against the Assad government started Saudi
Saw it as a chance to eradicate the shia rule from the country. Saudi Arabia
has been one of the largest supporters of the opposition forces in Syria since.
On the other hand Iran has put its power to save the Assad government and
maintain the Shia Strength in Syria. As recently, the Assad government has
achieved significant success in defeating the opposite forces, it is seen as a big
positive for Iran and a big jolt to Saudi power in the region.
2. Yemen: In Yemen Houthi rebels which belongs to Shia sect had overthrown
the sunni dominated government in 2014. Saudi Arabia and other sunni
dominated countries of the region are claiming that Iran is providing the
weapons and financial support to the rebels. Saudi Arabia is engaged in war
with the rebels from last three years but has failed to achieve any success.
Again it strengthens The Iranian power and is humiliating for Saudi.
3. Iraq: Iran has been the biggest influence on the government in post war Iraq.
Following the advance of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) into
 northern Iraq in mid-2014, Iran began to provide military aid to counter the
militant advance. Iran provided technical advisers to the Iraqi government and
weapons to the Kurdish peshmerga. Several sources, among them Reuters,
believe that since mid-June 2014, Iranian combat troops are in Iraq, which Iran
denies. Two US sources contend that in June or July 2014 Iran started an air
war against ISIL. The Iraqi Shia militias Kata'ib Hezbollah ("Hezbollah
Brigades") and Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq ("League of the Righteous"), supposedly
funded by Iran, fought alongside Iraqi Army and Kurdish peshmerga in retaking
territory from ISIL.

4. Qatar: Qatar has been a focus of controversy in the Saudi-Iranian rivalry due
to Saudi Arabia's longstanding concern about the country's relationship with
Iran and Iranian-backed militant groups.
In June 2017, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain,
Egypt, Maldives, Mauritania, Mauritius, Sudan, Senegal, Djibouti, Comoros,
Jordan, the Tobruk-based Libyan government and the Hadi-led Yemeni
government severed diplomatic relations with Qatar and blocked
Qatar's airspace and sea routes along with Saudi Arabia blocking the only land
crossing over its relations with Iran, Al-Jazeera reporting negative information
about other GCC states and Egypt and the country's alleged support of Islamist
groups. Qatar was also expelled from the anti-Houthi coalition.

5. Bahrain: Saudi Arabia and Iran have sought to extend their influence in Bahrain
for decades. While the majority of Muslims in Bahrain are Shia, the country is
ruled by the Sunni Al Khalifa family.
Sunni states have long feared that Iran might stir up unrest among regional
Shia minority populations, especially in Bahrain. The Al Khalifa regime's
stability depends heavily on Saudi support. The island is connected to Saudi
Arabia by the 25 kilometer King Fahd Causeway, and its proximity to Saudi
Arabia's oil-rich, majority Shia Eastern Province is viewed by Riyadh as a
security concern. Any political gains by the Shia in Bahrain are seen by the
Saudis as gains for Iran.
In response to the Arab Spring in 2011, the GCC regimes sought to maintain
their legitimacy through social reform, economic handouts, and violent
repression. Member states also distributed a share of their combined oil wealth
to Bahrain and Oman to maintain stability. When anti regime protests started in
Bahrain, Saudi-led GCC forces quickly intervened in support of the Al Khalifa
regime to put down the anti-government uprising in Bahrain.The Bahraini
government publicly blamed Iran for the protests.
Following the onset of the Arab Winter, Bahrain accused Iran of orchestrating
several domestic incididents as part of a campaign to destabilize the country.
Tehran denied all allegations and accused the government of Bahrain of
blaming its own internal problems on Iran after every incident. In August 2015,
authorities in Bahrain arrested five suspects over a bombing in Sitra. Officials
linked the attacks to the Revolutionary Guard and Hezbollah, although Iran
denied any involvement. In January 2016, Bahrain joined Saudi Arabia in
 cutting diplomatic ties with Tehran following the attacks on Saudi diplomatic
missions in Iran. In November 2017, Bahrain called an explosion on its main oil
pipeline "terrorist sabotage" linked to Iran, drawing a rebuke from Tehran. Saudi
Arabia also referred to the incident as an "attack on the pipeline.

6. Lebanon: Lebanon’s population has been almost equally distributed between

Christians, Shia Muslims and Sunni Muslims. Seats of parliament of the country
are divided between the three communities and position of President, Prime
Minister and Speaker of the Assembly are reserved such that President of the
Country can only be a Christian, Prime Minister of the country can only be a
Sunni Muslim and Speaker of the assembly can only be a Shia Muslim. Saudi
Arabia has a great influence on the Sunni Muslims of the country. Hezbollah,
which is an extremist group has a great influence among the Shia Muslims of
the country. Iran is the biggest supporter of Hezbollah and it has a great control
on the activities of the organization. Saudi Arabia through its influence in the
Sunni sect of the country aims to reduce the power of Hezbollah but considering
the growing strength of Hezbollah in last few years, strategy of Saudi appears
to be failed miserably.
Political Turmoil in Saudi Arabia
In Saudi Arabia young (32 years) Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (also
known as MBS) is gaining control over the system and trying to become the de
facto head of the State overpowering his father and aging King Salman. There are
reports that King might step down very soon and MBS might be handed over the
reigns.
However, MBS is apparently very aggressive and impatient. He has been accused
of risking instability in the Middle East through his detention of human rights
activists, intervention in Yemen, escalation of Saudi's diplomatic crisis with Qatar,
forced resignation of Prime Minister of Lebanon the as well as his arrests of
members of the Saudi royal family in November 2017.
Saudi Purge November 2017
A number of prominent Saudi Arabian princes, government ministers, and business
people were arrested in Saudi Arabia in November 2017 following the creation of
an anti-corruption committee led by Crown Prince MBS. There are number of
alternate theories regarding the motives behind the purge: a genuine corruption
crackdown, a project to gain money (some reports suggest that quantum of money
involved can be as high as USD 800 Billion), preparing to take over the crown,
Control of Media etc.
Resignation of Prime Minister of Lebanon
As discussed earlier, Prime Minister of Lebanon can only be a Sunni Muslim and
Saudi Arabia has a great influence over the election for the post. Current Prime
Minister of Lebanon Mr. Saad Hariri has been very close to Saudi authorities. He
has dual Citizenship of Lebanon and Saudi, he has huge Business interest in Saudi
and his children study in Saudi. His father Rafiq Hariri was also Prime Minster of
Lebanon who was killed in 2005. Mr. Hariri’s net worth is over a Billion US Dollars.
Mr. Hariri used to be in close contact with Saudi authorities and as discussed
earlier, one of the main expectation of Saudi authorities from him was to control
Hezbollah, a task in which he performed miserably.
As per the media reports, on 2nd of November Mr. Hariri had a meeting with Iranian
officials, which was claimed to be very conductive. Thereafter Mr. Hariri was called
from Saudi officials to meet the king. Mr. Hariri immediately rushed to Saudi.
However, quiet unexpectedly on 4th of November in Saudi Arabia Mr. Hariri
announced his resignation from the post of prime Minster of Lebanon siting the
meddling of Iran and Hezbollah.
However, analysts claimed that he had been forced to resign by Saudi authorities
and had been kept hostage in Saudi Arabia. Further there were speculations that
Saudi is planning for a strike against Hezbollah in Lebanon and some reports
suggesting that Saudi and Israel may be cooperating for the action.
Mr. Hariri denied these accusations against Saudi and rejected the speculations of
being kept hostage through his twitter. President of Lebanon didn’t accept the
resignation siting that it cannot be given from foreign soil.
Relations between Saudi Arabia and Lebanon damaged significantly during the
episode. Both sides accused the each other for waging war against the other. On
10th November Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait have advised
their citizens not to travel to Lebanon and urged those who are in the country to
leave as soon as possible. During his stay in Saudi Mr. Hariri went to UAE to meet
the king and returned back.
Subsequently on 19th November Mr. Hariri went from Saudi to France, he rejected
the claim of being kept hostage, however told to disclose everything on his return
to Beirut. Later on Mr. Hariri Suspended his resignation after meeting with
President of Lebanon.
Impact of Geopolitics of Middle East on UAE
UAE is a close ally of Saudi Arabia. Both have majority Sunni population. UAE is
one of the most peaceful countries of the region. The country doesn’t appear to
have any major dispute with any neighbouring country which may affect the peace
in near future. Although there is a dispute with Iran over three Islands but that is
not regarded as a major issue by the analysts.
However, Geopolitics of the Middle East is highly integrated and Saudi-Iran
tensions have a regional impact beyond their boundaries. Some Analysists feel
that Middle East is going through a very sensitive phase and one major incident
involving Iran and Saudi might lead to uncontrollable consequences. But this apart
there doesn’t appear any geopolitical issue specific to UAE which may threaten its
peace and prosperity in near future.