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“
“ Innovations in technology – as well as policy, financing and business models – are essential to nourish the world in a
safe, responsible and sustainable way. To improve global food security and nutrition, different players and stakeholders
must come together to acknowledge gaps and share approaches for addressing them. We have an incredible
opportunity to work together to use technology and innovation to create more inclusive and sustainable food systems.
David W. MacLennan
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Cargill
“
“ Technology has the potential to answer some of our biggest questions and help us better understand the world around
us. In almost every industry, massive efforts are underway to connect our physical and digital worlds, unleashing the
Fourth Industrial Revolution. We must work together to ensure that the food and agriculture sector is not left behind –
and that these efforts contribute towards global food systems that benefit farmers, consumers and the planet.
Bernard Meyerson
Chief Innovation Officer, IBM Corporation
“
“ A new revolution in food has the potential to create healthy food systems that sustain our families and our planet. We
have the tools and technology to create innovations that could expand dignity and justice to vulnerable populations. To
this end, we must continue to build the shared capacity of businesses and philanthropies, faith institutions and state and
local governments to come together to try to solve the world’s toughest problems.
Rajiv Shah
President of the Rockefeller Foundation
“
“ Food today generates a heavy environmental footprint. A shift to sustainable food systems is essential and includes:
sustainable production and harvest on land and at sea, integrated land-use planning, land and marine restoration,
reducing food loss and waste, and shifting to low footprint diets. To achieve this we need progressive regulation, smart
land-use governance, technology innovation, behavioural change and multi-stakeholder collaboration.”
Marco Lambertini
Director General of WWF International
“
“ Smallholder farmers produce 80% of Africa’s food supplies, but they have limited access to finance, inputs, markets,
information and other services. Technology innovations can overcome all these challenges – but it won’t happen
automatically. We need to combine innovation, investment and policy to harness the power of the Fourth Industrial
Revolution to benefit smallholder farmers.
Ishmael Sunga
Chief Executive Officer, Southern African Confederation of Agricultural Unions (SACAU)
Global food systems today are in need of transformation. —— Digital building blocks such as big data, the Internet of
Billions of people are poorly nourished, millions of farmers Things (IoT), artificial intelligence and machine learning
live at subsistence level, enormous amounts of food go to and blockchain
waste and poor farming practices are taking a toll on the — — New physical systems such as autonomous vehicles,
environment. Achieving the Sustainable Development Goals advanced robotics, additive manufacturing, advanced
(SDGs) by 2030 will require food systems that are inclusive, materials and nanotechnologies
sustainable, efficient, nutritious and healthy. — — Advances in science such as next-generation
biotechnologies and genomics, and new energy
Achieving a true transformation of food systems requires technologies
a holistic approach – one engaging all stakeholders and
deploying a wide array of actions such as improved Until now, the food and agriculture sectors have been slow
policy, increased investment, expanded infrastructure, to harness the power of these technologies, attracting
farmer capacity-building, consumer behaviour change significantly lower levels of investment and inspiring fewer
and improved resource management. Technology technology start-ups than other sectors. Our research
innovations, combined with other interventions, can play an revealed $14 billion in investments in 1,000 food
important role in enabling and accelerating food systems systems-focused start-ups since 2010, while healthcare
transformation. attracted $145 billion in investment in 18,000 start-ups
during the same time period.1
Figure 1: The
Figure 1: The ‘Transformative
‘Transformative Twelve’
Twelve’ could
could deliver
deliver significant impacts to
significant impacts to food
food systems
systems by
by 2030
2030
Changing the shape of demand Promoting value-chain linkages
Changing the shape of demand Promoting value-chain linkages
ALTERNATIVE ▪ Reduce GhG emissions by up to 950 ▪ Generate up to $200 billion of income
PROTEINS for farmers
megatonnes of CO2 eq.
▪ Reduce GhG emissions by up to 100
1. Payments
3. Supply chain
information
DELIVERY megatonnes of CO2 eq.
400 billion cubic metres
4. Marketplace
FOOD SENSING
TECHNOLOGIES
FOR FOOD ▪ Reduce food waste by up to 20 million BIG DATA AND ▪ Generate up to $70 billion of income
SAFETY, tonnes
ADVANCED for farmers
QUALITY, AND
ANALYTICS FOR
INSURANCE
▪ Increase production by up to 150
TRACEABILITY million tonnes
BLOCKCHAIN-ENABLED
TRACEABILITY
▪ Reduce food loss by up to 30 million
tonnes
Thereisisenough
There enoughfood
foodproduced
producedtoday
todaytotofeed
feedthe
theglobal
global As such, stakeholders from all sectors and regions have
populationyet
population yetaround
around800
800million
millionpeople
peoplearearechronically
chronically recognized the need for a fundamental transformation of food
undernourished.33
undernourished.
systems – a transformation that will address the significant
Malnutrition
Malnutritionisisthe
thelargest
largestcontributor
contributortotodisease
diseaseininthe
the challenges across food systems and advance all of the
world.44Over
world. Over44billion
billionpeople
peopleare
areeither
eithermicronutrient
micronutrientdefi-
deficient or Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) as illustrated in figure
cient or overweight.
overweight.
2.
Malnutrition,
Malnutrition,which
whichaffects
affectsnearly
nearlyone
oneininfour
fourchildren
childrenunder
under age
age 5 worldwide,
5 worldwide, is associated
is associated withwith reduced
reduced school
school per-
performance,
formance, andbrain
and impaired impaired brain development.
development. 5 5 Such a transformation would create not only social value,
but economic value as well. New business opportunities
Women represent 43% of agricultural labour yet have un-
Women
equal represent
access 43%technology,
to land, of agricultural labour yet have unequal generated in the course of addressing Sustainable
access to
markets andland, technology,
other resources.m6 arkets and other resources.
6
Development Goals in the food and agriculture sector
could reach $2.3 trillion annually by 2030, according to the
Today,food
Today, foodsystems
systemsaccount
accountfor
for70%
70%of
offreshwater
freshwater Business and Sustainable Development Commission.20
withdrawals.77
withdrawals.
Modernfood
Modern foodsystems
systemsconsume
availableenergy
available
consumearound
andare
energyand areheavily
around30%
30%of
heavilydependent
ofworld's
dependenton
world’s
onfossil
fossilfuels.
fuels.8 8
A vision for transformation
Agriculture is the single largest employer in the world, To feed almost 10 billion people by 205021, while meeting the
Agriculture
employing is the60%
around single largest employer
of workers in the world,
in less developed Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), food systems will
employing
countries.9 around 60% of workers in less developed c ountries.9
need to be:
Around 900 million people in rural communities, the majority —— Inclusive – ensuring economic and social inclusion for all
Around 900 million people in rural communities, the majority of
of whom work in agriculture, don’t have access to
whom work in agriculture, don’t have access to electricity.10 food systems actors, including smallholder farms, women
electricity.10
and youth
Seven
Sevenout
outofof10 10people
peopleliveliveininaacountry
countrythat
thathas
hasseen
seenaarise
rise in —— Sustainable – minimizing negative environmental impacts,
ininequality
inequalityininthe
thelast
last3030years.
years.1111 Inequality shapes who
Inequality shapes who has
has access
access to healthy
to healthy food.food.
12 12 conserving scarce natural resources, saving biodiversity
loss and strengthening resiliency against future shocks
By
By2030,
2030,nearly
nearly60%
60%ofofthe
theworld's populationwill
world’spopulation willlive
liveinin
urban
—— Efficient – producing adequate quantities of nutritious and
urbanareas,
areas,changing
changingthe
theshape
shapeofofconsumer
consumerdemand
demandand and
increasing
increasingpressure
pressureon
onland
landand
andother
otherresources. 1313
resources. healthy foods for global needs while minimizing loss and
waste
Nearly
Nearlyoneonethird
thirdof
ofglobal
globalfood production––1.3
foodproduction 1.3billion
billion tons —— Nutritious and healthy – providing and promoting the
tons of food
of food – is or
– is lost lost or wasted.
wasted. 14 14
consumption of diverse nutritious and safe foods for a
Food
healthy diet
Foodsystems
systemsarearecurrently
currentlyresponsible
responsiblefor for20-30%
20-30%ofof global
global greenhouse
greenhouse emissions.
emissions. Inversely,
Inversely, climateclimate
changechange
threatens to
threatens to cut by
cut crop yields crop yields
over 25%.by15over 25%.15 Achieving this vision requires considering the environmental,
Fish
Fishaccounts
accountsfor
for17
17percent
percentofofthe
theglobal
globalpopulation's
population’s intake of economic, and health-related dimensions of food systems.
intake
animalofproteins.
animal proteins.
However,However,
over 30% over
of 30% of the fish stocks
the world’s It requires continued investments22 in crop improvement
world's fish stocks16are overexploited.16
are overexploited.
technologies, management practices, policy and governance,
Agriculture
Agricultureisisthe
themost
mostsignificant
significantdriver
driverof
ofdeforesta-
deforestation, business model innovation and other strategies that have
tion, contributing
contributing to a record
to a record global
global tree cover
tree cover loss loss
of 30ofmillion
30
million hectares
hectares in 2016,
in 2016, an increase
an increase of 51%offrom
51%2015.
from 17
2015.17
been proven over the last decade. And it requires substantial
innovation and departures from the status quo.
Increased
Increasedfood
foodinsecurity
insecurity––815
815million
millionundernourished
undernourished people,
people,
up fromup from
777 777 in
million million
2015in– 2015
can be – can
bothbea both
causea and
cause
and consequence
consequence of conflict.
of conflict. 18 18
Partnerships
Partnershipsare arecrucial
crucialto totransforming
transformingfood
foodsystems.
systems.
Unlocking
Unlockingopportunities
opportunitiesininfood
food systems
systems could
could be
be worth
worth $2.3
$2.3 trillion
trillion annually
annually for private
for the the private sector
sector by 2030.19
by 2030.19
Figure 3: Combinations of 4IR technologies can enable innovation to solve challenges faced in food systems
Digital building
building blocks
blocks Advances
Advancesin
inscience
science Reformingthe
Reforming the physical
physical
Blockchain
Changing the shape of demand Promoting value chain linkages Creating effective production systems
ALTERNATIVE
BLOCKCHAIN PRECISION
PROTEINS BIG DATA AND AGRICULTURE GENE-EDITING
ENABLED FOR MULTI-
ADVANCED TRACEABILITY
FOR INPUT AND
ANALYTICS FOR WATER USE TRAIT SEED
OPTIMIZATION IMPROVEMENTS
INSURANCE
ALTERNATIVE Consumers Reduced GhG 550-950 5-8% of total agricultural Reduced emissions from the
PROTEINS chose to emissions GhG emissions31 production of livestock and feed
replace 10-15% Megatonnes of CO2 Eq.
of meat (40-60
million tonnes
of meat) with
alternative Reduced water use 225-400 7-12% of total fresh Reduced water from the
proteins by 2030 Billion cubic metres water withdrawn for production of livestock and feed
agriculture32
Freed land 250-400 5-10% of total land use Reduced number of livestock
Million hectares for agriculture30 driving increased availability of
land
FOOD SENSING 30-50% of the Reduced food waste 10-20 5-7% of total food Reduced domestic food waste
TECHNOLOGIES consumers in Millions of tonnes wasted33 from individualized and real-time
FOR FOOD SAFETY, developed expiration dates
QUALITY, AND countries used
TRACEABILITY food scanning
to determine
expiration dates
by 2030
NUTRIGENETICS 10-15% of the Reduced overweight 25-55 1-2% of the total global Reduced number of overweight
FOR PERSONALIZED overweight population overweight population34 from tailored and individualized
NUTRITION population Millions of people nutrition and diets
(250-370
million people)
followed
personalized
nutrition plans
by 2030
Launched in 2014,
Mobbisurance offers crop
insurance and market access
to smallholder farmers. The
South African start-up gives
farmers the ability to sign up
through their mobile phones.
Mobbisurance then monitors
their crops and the weather
using satellites owned by
NASA and the European Space
Agency, to which it has access
via a partnership with the South
African National Space Agency.
WHICHISISTHE
WHICH THE
WHAT
WHATIF…
IF... THE IMPACT
THE IMPACTCOULD
COULDBE…
BE... EQUIVALENT
EQUIVALENT OF...
OF… DRIVEN BY…
DRIVEN BY...
MOBILE SERVICE 70-90% of Increased income 100-200 3-6% of the total Access to financial payments,
DELIVERY farms in Billions of dollars agricultural production agricultural information,
developing value39 increased price from enhanced
countries market access
1. Payments
2. Farm
(275-350
information
3. Supply chain
million) used Increased yields 250-500 3-6% of the total Access to information to improve
mobile
information
4. Marketplace
Millions of tonnes agricultural production40 farming practices, resource
applications management, and choice of
by 2030 inputs and seeds
Reduced food loss 20-65 2-5% of total food Better farmer-trader coordination
Millions of tonnes losses41 and access to information (e.g.
farmer helplines)
BIG DATA AND 50-75% of all Increased income 15-70 0-2% of the total
ADVANCED farm holdings Billions of dollars agricultural production Increased willingness to take
ANALYTICS FOR without value39 risk, experiment with new
INSURANCE insurance opted methods and technologies and
into insurance Increased yields 40-150 1-2% of the total diversify crops
(200-300 million Millions of tonnes agricultural production40
holdings) by
2030
IOT FOR REAL-TIME 50-75% of Reduced food loss 10-50 1-4% of total food Improved ability to manage
SUPPLY CHAIN supply chains in Millions of tonnes losses41 environmental conditions of
TRANSPARENCY developed transportation in real-time (e.g.
AND TRACEABILITY countries were temperature, humidity, gas) and
controlled by IoT better shelf-life management
BLOCKCHAIN Half of the Reduced food loss 10-30 1-2% of total food Improved value-chain efficiency
ENABLED world's supply Millions of tonnes losses41 driven by improved collaboration
TRACEABILITY chains were and data visibility
tracked by
blockchain
CRISPR-Cas is a molecular
defence mechanism found in
bacteria. Scientists have found
a way to use this mechanism to
direct enzymes to cut DNA.
Biological-based crop protection and micronutrients Biologicals, like other technologies, have their risks. The
address the environmental challenges of using chemicals manipulation of bacteria and viruses could lead to health
and of growing plants in soils degraded by poor agricultural scares. Additionally, a thorough understanding of biologicals’
practices. They include: bio-pesticides (including spillover effects (e.g. their impact on bees) is essential for
pheromones), crop-enhancement inputs and micronutrient limiting the loss of biodiversity.
soil additives. Bio-pesticides actively eliminate pests such
as weeds, mildew and insects, and prevent diseases.
They are derived from microbials and biochemicals. Crop-
enhancement inputs improve a plant’s ability to assimilate
nutrients by evoking physiological benefits. Micronutrients
are soil additives designed to increase soil fertility.
WHICHISISTHE
WHICH THE
WHAT
WHATIF…
IF... THE IMPACT
THE IMPACTCOULD
COULDBE…
BE... EQUIVALENT
EQUIVALENT OF...
OF… DRIVEN BY…
DRIVEN BY...
PRECISION 15-25% of all Reduced costs 40-100 1-4% of total costs Input use optimization and
AGRICULTURE FOR farms (80-150 Billions of dollars incurred by farmers45 machinery use optimization
INPUT AND WATER million farms)
Increased yields 100-300 1-4% of the total Improved seeding and optimized
USE OPTIMIZATION adopted
Millions of tonnes agricultural production46 use of inputs
precision
agriculture by Reduced GhG 5-20 0-1% total agricultural Optimized use of inputs reduces
2030 emissions GhG emissions47 the amount applied and runoffs
Megatonnes of CO2 eq.
Reduced water use 50-180 2-5% of the total fresh Optimized water use from
Billions of cubic metres water withdrawn for improved irrigation systems and
agriculture48 field visibility
GENE-EDITING FOR 10-15% of Increased income 40-100 1-2% of the total Increased yield, and reduced
MULTI-TRAIT SEED farms (60-100 Billions of dollars agricultural production loss from drought, pest and
IMPROVEMENTS million farms) value49 disease
chose to use
Increased yields 100-400 1-5% of the total Increased yield from improved
gene-edited Millions of tonnes agricultural production46 seed genotype
seeds by 2030
Reduced food loss 5-20 1-2% of total food Increased crop resilience to pest,
Millions of tonnes losses50 disease and drought
Reduced micronutrient 20-100 1-5% of total people in a Ability to biofortify seeds and
def. Million people state of malnutrition51 crops
MICROBIOME 20-25% of Increased income 60-100 2-3% of the total Increased yield and reduced loss
TECHNOLOGIES TO farms (120-150 Billions of dollars agricultural production due from drought, pest and
ENHANCE CROP million farms) value49 disease
RESILIENCE chose to use
Increased yields 130-250 2-3% of the total Improved plant ability to
microbiome Millions of tonnes agricultural production46 assimilate nutrients
technologies by
2030 Reduced food loss 5-20 1-2% of total food Increased crop resilience to pest,
Millions of tonnes losses50 disease and drought
BIOLOGICAL-BASED 5-10% of farms Increased yields 10-50 0-1% of the total Improved crop health leading to
CROP PROTECTION (15-50 million Millions of tonnes agricultural production46 increased yields from the use of
AND MICRO- farms) used micronutrients
NUTRIENTS FOR SOIL biologicals and
MANAGEMENT micronutrients Reduced GhG 1-5 0-1% of total agricultural Reduced use of fertilizers from
by 2030 emissions GhG emissions47 the use of micronutrients
Megatonnes of CO2 eq.
OFF-GRID 50-75% of farms Increased income 20-100 1-3% of total agricultural Increased access to cold
RENEWABLE ENERGY currently unable Billions of dollars production value49 storage allowing farmers to
GENERATION AND to access improve price realization at time
of sale
STORAGE FOR electricity (100-
ACCESS TO 150 million
farms) gained Increased yields 300-530 4-7% of the total Access to efficient irrigation
ELECTRICITY
Millions of tonnes agricultural production46 systems reducing the amount of
access to off-grid water wasted
renewable
electricity by 2030 Reduced food loss 10-15 0-1% of total food Access to cold storage
Millions of tonnes losses50 increasing product shelf-life
Reduced water use 150-250 4-8% of the total fresh Access to efficient irrigation
Billions of cubic metres water withdrawn for systems reducing the amount 8of
agriculture48 water wasted (e.g. drip irrigation)
Given the complexities in scaling technologies in food Promoting start-up activity can be done in many ways.
systems, there is a real need for all stakeholders to play a Intrapreneurship is a proven model that can be beneficial
part in leveraging technologies to transform food systems. to both corporations and start-ups. Corporate venture
Some interventions can be done individually; others require capital can provide start-ups with the necessary funding
collaboration among multiple stakeholders. and mentorship required to successfully create and bring
products to market.
Where,
Lever Reduced GhG Reduced water Freed land Reduced food waste Reduced overweight population
Emissions use Million Hectares Million of tonnes Millions of people
Megatonnes of Billion cubic
CO2 Eq. metres
Un- 0 0 0 200-2207 0
addressa-
ble
Addressable
7,700 2,900 2,800 50-70 2,500
value 13
Reach
10-1511 30-5012 10-159
%
Drivers ▪ Reduced ▪ Reduced water ▪ Reduced ▪ Reduced domestic food waste from ▪ Reduced number of overweight from
of impact emissions from from the number of individualized and real-time expiration dates tailored and individualized nutrition and
the production production of livestock driving diets
of livestock and livestock and increased
feed feed availability of
land
Other ▪ Improved health from reduced consumption of meat ▪ Reduced food fraud from the ability to ▪ Improved health and longer lives
impacts identify food composition and authenticity ▪ Improved performance for athletes
▪ Improved food safety from ability to identify
pathogens
1 Total emissions driven from livestock in 2030 calculated based on total population in 2030 (World Bank Database), average meat consumption per capita (OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2016-2025), and average emissions
per kg of meat (Environmental Working Group, Meat Eaters Guide: Methodology 2011); 2 Assumes the emissions from the production of alternative proteins is equivalent to the production of 3-5 kg of soybeans per kg produced;
3 Calculated based on the average consumption of water per kg of meat (Institute of Mechanical Engineering); 4 Calculated as total pastures and meadows (World Bank Database); 5 Assumes application in high income and
upper middle income countries only; 6 Total global food waste, McKinsey, 2013; 7 Assumes total food waste from low income and lower middle income countries is not addressable (50 million tonnes), assumes 20-30% of food
waste is driven by “use-by” or “sell-by” dates in developed countries (i.e., 70-80% of waste is un-addressable), sources include: http://www.refed.com/download, http://www.wrap.org.uk/sites/files/wrap/ES%20Technical%20
report%20dates_0.pdf; 8 Overweight values based on the Global Burden of Disease Study, 2015 (http://ghdx.healthdata.org/gbd-2015), estimations assume proportion of overweight stays the same over time; total number of
overweigh in 2030 estimated using 2030 forecasted global population (World Bank Database); 9 Reach estimated to be 20-25% in high income countries, 10-15% in upper middle income counties, 5-10% in lower middle income
countries, and 0% in low income countries; 10 Estimated based on expert opinion; 11 Assumes that 15-20% of high incomes countries, 10-15% of upper middle income countries, 5-10% of lower middle income countries, and
0-5% of low income countries substitute meat for alternative proteins; 12 Assumes reach of 30-50% in high income and upper middle income countries; 13 Addressable value = Baseline value – un-addressable value; 14 Impact
baseline = addressable value * reach; 15 Total impact = impact baseline * impact
3. Supply chain
information
4. Marketplace
Lever Increased Increased Reduced Reduced Reduced Increased Increased yields Reduced food loss Reduced food loss
income yields food loss GhG water income Millions of metric Million metric tonnes of food Million metric tonnes of food
Billions of Millions of Million emi- use Billions of dollars tonnes of food
dollars metric metric ssions Billions of
tonnes tonnes Mega- cubic
tonnes metres
CO2 eq.
Baseline
3,5001 7,9004 3505 12,0006 3,5007 3,5001 7,9004 3609 3609
value
Un-
1,9002 4,2002 1502 6,0002 1,5002 1,9002 4,2002 16010 0
addressable
Addressable
1,600 3,700 200 6,000 2,000 1,600 3,700 200 360
value 16
Impact 1,100- 2,600- 140- 4,000- 1,300- 800-1,200 1,900-2,800 100-150 150-180
baseline 17 1,400 3,300 180 5,500 1,700
Impact,
10-1513 10-1514 15-3513 1-215 3-612 2-68 2-68 10-3011 5-1515
%
Total
100-200 250-500 20-65 50-100 40-100 15-70 40-150 10-50 10-30
impact18
Drivers Access Access Better Increased Increased Increased willingness to take risk, Improved ability to manage Improved value-chain
of impact to to infor- farmer- access to access to experiment with new methods and environmental conditions of efficiency driven by improved
financial mation to trader agri- agri- technologies, and diversify crops transportation in real-time (e.g. collaboration and data visibility
pay- improve coordi- cultural cultural temperature, humidity, gas)
ments, farming nation infor- infor- and better shelf-life
agri- practices, and mation mation management
cultural resource access to for better for better
infor- manage- infor- decision decision
mation, ment, mation making making
increased and (e.g.,
price choice of farmer
from en- inputs helpline)
hanced and
market seeds
access
Other ▪ Improved financial inclusion ▪ Income smoothing over time ▪ Ability to provide nutritional ▪ Reduced food fraud from
impacts allowing farmers to maintain and environmental impacts ability to determine food
livelihoods in severe of food authenticity
circumstances ▪ Improved food quality ▪ Reduced food losses and
▪ Reduced wastage from impro-ved food safety driven
accurate expiration dates by recalls
▪ Improved supply and
demand matching leading to
optimized food production
and distribution
▪ Ability to provide nutritional
and environmental impacts
of food
1 Based on total agricultural production value from FAO, 2030 projection estimated based on population growth (World Bank Database); 2 Assumes that 100% of farmers in high income countries and 50% of farmers in upper
middle income countries, 30% of lower middle income countries, and 10% of low income countries already have access to similar services – based on the proxy of the percentage of the rural population with an account at a
financial institution, % age 15+, (World Bank Database); 3 Assumes average margin of 15% compared to total agricultural production value, FAO (i.e. costs are 85% of the total agricultural production value); 4 Total agricultural
output includes crop, meat, milk, and eggs, FAO, 2030 projection estimated based on population growth (World Bank Database); 5 Includes only post-harvest losses; 6 2030 total agricultural greenhouse gas emissions
forecasted to 2030 using linear regression - base data from FAO and World Bank Database; 7 Total agricultural freshwater withdrawals, 2030 estimates forecasted based on population growth, World Bank Database; 8 Driven by
increased farmer willingness to take risks and change practices, https://www.ifama.org/resources/Documents/v19ia/520150132.pdf; 9 Total processing, packaging, and distribution losses, estimated by McKinsey; 10 Excludes
food waste from lower middle income and low income countries; 11 Large reduction in food loss during production, packaging, and transportation driven by the ability to control environmental conditions (temperature, humidity,
and gas) in real-time, https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/e4f595_aef7d3c7e8794c06b8f67f586f6d3a7c.pdf; 12 Based on: http://www.vodafone.com/content/dam/vodafone/about/sustainability/2011/pdf/connected_agriculture.pdf;
13 Based on: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2014/12/how-mobile-phones-benefit-farmers/;14 Based on: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/bitstream/155478/2/2_Mittal.pdf; 15 Based on expert opinion; 16 Addressable value
= Baseline value – un-addressable value; 17 Impact baseline = addressable value * reach; 18 Total impact = impact baseline * impact
What if… 15-25% of all farms (80-150 10-15% of farms (60-100 20-25% of farms (120-150 5-10% of farms (15-50 million 50-75% of farmers currently
million farms) adopted precision million farms) chose to use million farms) chose to use farms) used biologicals and unable to access electricity
agriculture by 2030 gene-edited seeds by 2030 microbiome technologies by micronutrients by 2030 (100-150 million farms) gained
2030 access to off-grid renewable
electricity by 2030
Lever Redu- Increa- Redu- Redu- Incre- Increa- Redu- Redu- Incre- Incre- Redu- Redu- Increased Reduced GhG Incre- Incre- Redu- Redu-
ced sed ced ced ased sed ced ced ased ased ced ced yields emissions ased ased ced ced
costs yields GhG water in- yields food micro- in- yields food GhG Millions of Megatonnes of in- yields food water
Billions Millions emi- use come Millions loss nu- come Millions loss emi- tonnes CO2 eq. come Millions loss use
of of ssions Billions Billions of Millions trient Billions of Millions ssions Billions of Millions Billions
dollars tonnes Mega- of of tonnes of def. of tonnes of Megat of tonnes of of
tonnes cubic dollars tonnes Millions dollars tonnes onnes dollars tonnes cubic
of CO2 metres people of CO2 metres
eq. eq.
Baseline
2,4001 6,6004 7505 3,5006 2,80011 6,6004 45013 1,40014 2,80011 6,6004 45013 7505 6,60027 75028 2,50021 6,60027 35024 3,50026
value
Un-
7502 1,9502 1502 10002 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2,15022 5,20022 25022 250022
addressable
Addressable
1,650 6,000 500 2,500 2,800 6,600 450 1,400 2,800 6,600 450 750 6,600 750 350 1,400 100 1000
value 33
Reach
15-303 10-1517 20-25 5-1030 50-7531
%
Impact 450- 1,000- 125- 500- 400- 900- 60- 100- 550- 1,300- 90- 150- 200- 25- 150- 700- 50- 500-
baseline 34 750 2,000 220 1000 550 1,300 90 180 700 1,650 120 200 550 50 300 1000 75 750
Impact, 10- 10- 5- 10- 10- 10- 5- 20- 10- 10- 5- 10- 5- 5- 10- 40- 15- 30-
% 158 159 1010 207 1512 3019 2516 5015 1518 1518 1520 1520 1029 1032 4023 5023 2025 4023
Total 40- 100- 5- 50- 40- 100- 5- 20- 60- 130- 5- 15- 10- 1- 20- 300- 10- 150-
impact35 100 300 20 180 100 400 20 100 100 250 20 30 50 5 100 530 15 250
Drivers Input Impro- Opti- Op- Increa- Increa- Increa- Ability Increa- Im- Increa- Im- Improved crop Reduced use Incre- Access Access Access
of impact use ved mized timal sed sed sed to bio- sed proved sed proved health leading of fertilizers ased to effi- to cold to effi-
optimi- seed- use of water yield, yield crop fortify yield plant crop crop to increased from the use of access cient storage cient
zation ing, inputs use and from re- seeds and ability re- ability yields from the micronutrients to cold irriga- in- irriga-
and and re- from re- impro- silienc and re- to silienc to use of storage tion creasin tion
machi- optimi- duces im- duced ved e to crops duced assimi- e to assimi- micronutrients allo- sys- g pro- sys-
nery zed the a- proved loss seed pest, loss late pest, late wing tems duct tems
use use of mount irriga- from geno- di- due nu- di- nu- farmers re- shelf re-
optimi- inputs ap- tion drou- type sease from trients sease trients to im- ducing life ducing
zation plied sys- ght, and drou- and prove the a- the a-
and tems pest drou- ght, drou- price mount mount
runoffs and and di- ght pest ght realiza- of of
field sease and di- tion at water water
visibi- sease time of wasted wasted
lity sale (e.g.,
drip
irriga-
tion)
Other ▪ Increased income depending ▪ Reduced use of pesticide and ▪ Reduced use of pesticide and ▪ Improved farmer health due to ▪ Reduced GhG emissions from
impacts on costs of services and herbicide herbicide reduce exposure to toxins replacement of fossil fuel
sensors ▪ Improved quality and ▪ Replacement of traditional powered pumps and
aesthetic of foods leading to pesticides and herbicides electricity generation
reduced waste could have beneficial effects
on consumer health
1 Based on total crop production value from FAO multiplied by a margin of 15%, 2030 projection estimated based on population growth (World Bank Database); 2 Assumes 50% of farms in high income countries (http:// 3
www.ustrust.com/ust/pages/agriculture-tech.aspx), 30% of farms in upper middle income, 20% of farms in lower middle income, and 10% of farms in low income countries already have access to some variation of precision
agriculture applications; 3 Assumes 50-75% of farms in high income countries, 30-50% of farms in upper middle income countries, 10-25% of farms in lower middle income countries, and 5-10% of farms in low income
countries will adopt precision agriculture; 4 Total crop production forecasted to 2030 proportionally to population growth, FAO, World Bank Database; 5 Based on emissions generated from fertilizer use, FAO; 6 Total agricultural
freshwater withdrawals (World Bank Database), 2030 estimates forecasted based on population growth 7 Impact estimates vary widely, conservative estimates selected (http://www.ustrust.com/ust/pages/agriculture-tech.
aspx, http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S037837741400211X, http://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/9/8/1339/htm); 8 Derived from multiple sources including: https://www.reacchpna.org/precision-agriculture-
offers-conservation-opportunities; 9 Derived from multiple sources including: https://www.reacchpna.org/precision-agriculture-offers-conservation-opportunities; 10 Derived from multiple sources including: http://www.mdpi.
com/2071-1050/9/8/1339/htm and https://www.reacchpna.org/precision-agriculture-offers-conservation-opportunities; 11 Based on total crop production value from FAO, 2030 projected based on population growth; 12 Based
on multiple sources including: http://www.weeklytimesnow.com.au/agribusiness/decisionag/genetic-modification-science-suggests-its-not-evil-or-unhealthy/news-story/4565c866f004bb8c0398cd0a0408014e and expert
opinion; 13 Includes production/on-farm losses; 14 Assumes that each farm holding can reach 4 people, assumes that it only applies to low income and lower middle income countries; 15 http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/do
wnload?doi=10.1.1.864.2952&rep=rep1&type=pdf; 16 Assumes that gene editing can reach improvements that are at least as good as gene modification http://12.000.scripts.mit.edu/mission2017/genetically-modified-crops/;
17 Assumes that 20-30% of high income countries, 15-20% of higher middle income countries, 10-15% of lower middle income countries, and 0-10% of low income countries are using gene edited seeds; 18 https://www.
indigoag.com/pages/news/2017/from-the-ground-up-on-kbtx; 19 Based on historical maize improvements seen in the US - low bound represents average yield improvements in the past decade, high bound represents the yield
improvements realized in the 1960s (high uptake of seeds with improved genotype), USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, PSDOnline; 20 Based on expert opinion; 21 Total value of perishable production (milk, eggs, meat, fruits,
and vegetables) from FAO stat, 2030 forecast based on population growth, World Bank Database; 22 Assumes that benefits will be attributed to farmers without access to electricity; based on rural access to electricity (% of rural
population), 2014, World Bank Database; 23 Derived from multiple sources including https://www.innovationpolicyplatform.org/system/files/8-Storage%20Solutions_Agri_Profile%20Ecozen.pdf, https://www.ifc.org/wps/wcm/co
nnect/2a54040046a86bc6989db99916182e35/Impact+of+Efficient+Irrigation+Technology+on+Small+Farmers+-+IFC+Brochure.pdf?MOD=AJPERES; 24 Post harvest losses only; 25 Based on estimated losses of milk driven by
lack of cold storage - http://naturalleader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/UTC-Nottingham-Report_3-30_FINAL.pdf; 26 Total agricultural freshwater withdrawals, 2030 estimates forecasted based on population growth (World
Bank Database); 27 Total crop production forecasted to 2030 proportionally to population growth, FAO, World Bank Database; 28 Based on emissions generated from fertilizer use, FAO, 2030 est. projected based on increased
population (World Bank Database); 29 Increased micronutrients in soil can lead to increased yields, see yield calculator here: http://www.microessentials.com/performance; 30 Assumes that 5-10% of high income and upper
middle income countries and 0-5% of lower middle income and low income countries adopt this technology; 31 Assumes that 50-75% of all farmers without access to electricity gain access to electricity; 32 Based on expert
opinion; 33 Addressable value = Baseline value – un-addressable value; 34 Impact baseline = addressable value * reach; 35 Total impact = impact baseline * impact
Debisi Araba International Center for Tropical Agriculture Regional Director, Africa
(CIAT)
Olaf Deutschbein German Federal Ministry for Economic Federal Ministry of the Interior
Cooperation (BMZ)
Sabeen Dhanani US Agency for International Development Deputy Team Coordinator, US Global Development Lab
(USAID)
Michael Doane The Nature Conservancy Managing Director, Agriculture and Food Systems
Lorin Fries World Economic Forum Former Head, Global Food Systems Collaboration
Caleb Harper Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Principal Investigator, Director of OpenAg
Ajay Vir Jakhar Bharat Krishak Samaj (Farmers’ Forum India) Chairman
Zhu Jing Nanjing Agricultural University Professor and Dean, College of Economics and Management
Bernhard Kowatsch United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) Head, Innovation Accelerator
John H. Lienhard V Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Abdul Latif Jameel Professor of Water and Food
Christian Merz Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation Senior Program Officer Digital Solutions
Jane Nelson Harvard Kennedy School, Harvard University Director, Corporate Responsibility Initiative
Kristin Groos Richmond Revolution Foods Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Teunis van Rheenen International Food Policy Research Institute Head of Partnerships/Business Development
(IFPRI)
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