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Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 5th edition 15 January 2010

CHAPTER 4

Section 4-2



4-1. a) P (1 < X ) = ∫ e −2 x dx = (−e −2 x ) = e −2 = 0.1353
1
1

2.5
2.5
∫e
−2 x
b) P (1 < X < 2.5) = dx = (−e −2 x ) = e −2 − e−5 = 0.1286
1
1

3
c) P( X = 3) = ∫ e −2 x dx = 0
3

4
4
d) P( X < 4) = ∫ e −2 x dx = (−e−2 x ) = 1 − e−8 = 0.9997
0
0



e) P(3 ≤ X ) = ∫ e −2 x dx = (−e −2 x ) = e−6 = 0.0025
3
3



f) P( x < X ) = ∫ e −2 x dx = (−e−2 x ) = e−2 x = 0.10
x
x

Then, 2x = −ln(0.10) = 2.3 ⇒ x = 1.15


x
x
g) P( X ≤ x) = ∫ e −2 x dx = (−e −2 x ) = 1 − e−2 x = 0.10
0
0

−ln(0.9)
Then, x = = 0.0527
2

2
2
3(8 x − x 2 ) ⎛ 3x2 x3 ⎞ ⎛ 3 1 ⎞
4-2. a) P ( X < 2) = ∫ dx = ⎜ − ⎟ = ⎜ − ⎟ − 0 = 0.1563
0
256 ⎝ 64 256 ⎠ 0 ⎝ 16 32 ⎠
8
8
3(8 x − x 2 ) ⎛ 3x 2 x3 ⎞
b) P ( X < 9) = ∫ dx = ⎜ − ⎟ = (3 − 2) − 0 = 1
0
256 ⎝ 64 256 ⎠ 0
4
4
3(8 x − x 2 ) ⎛ 3x 2 x3 ⎞ ⎛3 1⎞ ⎛ 3 1 ⎞
c) P(2 < X < 4) = ∫ dx = ⎜ − ⎟ = ⎜ − ⎟ − ⎜ − ⎟ = 0.3438
2
256 ⎝ 64 256 ⎠ 2 ⎝ 4 4 ⎠ ⎝ 16 32 ⎠
Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 5th edition 15 January 2010

8
8
3(8 x − x 2 ) ⎛ 3x 2 x3 ⎞ ⎛ 27 27 ⎞
d) P( X > 6) = ∫ dx = ⎜ − ⎟ = (3 − 2) − ⎜ − ⎟ = 0.1563
6
256 ⎝ 64 256 ⎠ 6 ⎝ 16 32 ⎠
x
x
3(8u − u 2 ) ⎛ 3u 2 u 3 ⎞ ⎛ 3x 2 x3 ⎞
e) P( X < x) = ∫ du = ⎜ − ⎟ = ⎜ − ⎟ − 0 = 0.95
0
256 ⎝ 64 256 ⎠ 0 ⎝ 64 256 ⎠
Then, x3 - 12x2 + 243.2 = 0, and x = 6.9172


0
4-3. a) P ( X < 0) = 0.5cos xdx = (0.5sin x) −π / 2 = 0 − (−0.5) = 0.5
− /2π

−π / 4
−π / 4
b) P ( X < −π / 4) = ∫
π
− /2
0.5cos xdx = (0.5sin x) −π / 2 = −0.3536 − (−0.5) = 0.1464

π /4
π /4
c) P(−π / 4 < X < π / 4) = ∫
π
− /4
0.5cos xdx = (0.5sin x) −π / 4 = 0.3536 − (−0.3536) = 0.7072

π /2
π /2
d) P( X > −π / 4) = ∫
π
− /4
0.5cos xdx = (0.5sin x) −π / 4 = 0.5 − (−0.3536) = 0.8536


x
e) P( X < x) = 0.5cos xdx = (0.5sin x) −π / 2 = (0.5sin x) − (−0.5) = 0.95
− /2π

Then, sin x = 0.9, and x = 1.1198 radians

2 2
2 ⎛ −1 ⎞ ⎛ −1 ⎞
4-4. a) P ( X < 2) = ∫ 3 dx = ⎜ 2 ⎟ = ⎜ ⎟ − (−1) = 0.75
1
x ⎝ x ⎠1 ⎝ 4 ⎠
∞ ∞
2 ⎛ −1 ⎞ ⎛ −1 ⎞
b) P ( X > 5) = ∫ 3 dx = ⎜ 2 ⎟ = 0 − ⎜ ⎟ = 0.04
5
x ⎝ x ⎠5 ⎝ 25 ⎠
8 8
2 ⎛ −1 ⎞ ⎛ −1 ⎞ ⎛ −1 ⎞
c) P(4 < X < 8) = ∫ 3 dx = ⎜ 2 ⎟ = ⎜ ⎟ − ⎜ ⎟ = 0.0469
4
x ⎝ x ⎠ 4 ⎝ 64 ⎠ ⎝ 16 ⎠
d) P( X < 4 or X > 8) = 1 − P(4 < X < 8) . From part (c), P(4 < X < 8) = 0.0469. Therefore,
P( X < 4 or X > 8) = 1 – 0.0469 = 0.9531
x x
2 ⎛ −1 ⎞ ⎛ −1 ⎞
e) P( X < x) = ∫ 3 dx = ⎜ 2 ⎟ = ⎜ 2 ⎟ − (−1) = 0.95
1
x ⎝ x ⎠1 ⎝ x ⎠
Then, x2 = 20, and x = 4.4721
Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 5th edition 15 January 2010

4 4
x x2 42 − 32
4-5. a) P ( X < 4) = ∫ dx = = = 0.5 because f X ( x) = 0 for x < 3.
3
7 14 3 14
5 5
x x2 52 − 3.52
b) P ( X > 3.5) = ∫ dx = = = 0.9107 because f X ( x) = 0 for x > 5.
3.5
7 14 3.5 14
5 5
x x2 52 − 4 2
c) P (4 < X < 5) = ∫ dx = = = 0.6429
4
7 14 4
14
4.5 4.5
x x2 4.52 − 32
d) P ( X < 4.5) = ∫3
7
dx =
14 3
=
14
= 0.8036

5 3.5 5 3.5
x x x2 x2 52 − 4.52 3.52 − 32
e) P( X > 4.5) + P( X < 3.5) = ∫ dx + ∫ dx = + = + = 0.5714
4.5
7 3
7 14 4.5 14 3 14 14



4-6. a) P (1 < X ) = ∫ e − ( x −5) dx = −e − ( x −5) = 1 , because f X ( x) = 0 for x < 5. This can also be
5
5

obtained from the fact that f X (x) is a probability density function for 5 < x.
5
5
b) P (2 ≤ X ≤ 5) = ∫ e − ( x −5) dx = −e − ( x −5) = 0
5
5

c) P (5 < X ) = 1 − P ( X ≤ 5) . From part b, P ( X ≤ 5) = 0 . Therefore, P (5 < X ) = 1 .


12
12
d) P(8 < X < 12) = ∫ e − ( x −5) dx = −e− ( x −5) = e−3 − e−7 = 0.0489
8
8

x
x
e) P ( X < x) = ∫ e − ( x −5) dx = −e − ( x −5) = 1 − e− ( x −5) = 0.85
5
5

Then, x = 5 − ln(0.15) = 6.897

4-7. a) P (0 < X ) = 0.5 , by symmetry.


1
1
b) P (0.5 < X ) = ∫ 1.5 x 2 dx = 0.5 x3 = 0.5 − 0.0625 = 0.4375
0.5
0.5

0.5
3 0.5
c) P(−0.5 ≤ X ≤ 0.5) = ∫ 1.5 x dx = 0.5 x = 0.125
2
−0.5
−0.5
Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 5th edition 15 January 2010

d) P(X < −2) = 0

e) P(X < 0 or X > −0.5) = 1


1
1
f) P ( x < X ) = ∫ 1.5 x 2 dx = 0.5 x3 = 0.5 − 0.5 x3 = 0.05
x
x

Then, x = 0.9655

−x

e 1000 −x ∞
4-8. a) P( X > 3000) = ∫ dx = −e 1000 = e −3 = 0.05
3000
1000 3000

−x
2000
e 1000 − x 2000
b) P (1000 < X < 2000) = ∫ dx = −e 1000 = e−1 − e −2 = 0.233
1000
1000 1000

−x
1000 1000
e 1000 −x

c) P ( X < 1000) = ∫0
1000
dx = − e 1000
0
= 1 − e −1 = 0.6321

−x
x −x x
e 1000
d) P( X < x) = ∫ dx = − e 1000 = 1 − e − x /1000 = 0.10 .
0 1000 0

Then, e− x /1000 = 0.9 , and x = −1000 ln 0.9 = 105.36.

25.25


25.25
4-9. a) P( X > 25) = 2.5dx = 2.5 x 25 = 0.625
25

25.25


25.25
b) P( X > x) = 0.85 = 2.5dx = 2.5 x x = 63.125 − 2.5 x
x

Then, 2.5x = 62.275 and x = 31.14.

74.7

∫ 1.3dx = 1.3x
74.7
4-10. a) P( X < 74.7) = 74.6
= 0.13
74.6

b) P(X < 74.8 or X > 75.2) = P(X < 74.8) + P(X > 75.2) because the two events are
mutually exclusive.
Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 5th edition 15 January 2010

74.8 75.4
P ( X < 74.8 ) = ∫ 1.3dx P ( X < 75.2 ) = ∫ 1.3dx
74.6 75.2
74.8 75.4
= 1.3x 74.6 and = 1.3x 75.2
= 1.3 × 0.2 = 1.3 × 0.2
= 0.26 = 0.26

The result is 0.26 + 0.26 = 0.52.


75.3

∫ 1.3dx = 1.3x
75.3
c) P(74.7 < X < 75.3) = 74.7
= 1.3(0.6) = 0.780
74.7

4-11. a) P(X < 2.25 or X > 2.75) = P(X < 2.25) + P(X > 2.75) because the two events are
mutually exclusive. Then, P(X < 2.25) = 0 and
2.8
P(X > 2.75) = ∫ 2dx = 2(0.05) = 0.10 .
2.75

b) If the probability density function is centered at 2.55 meters, then f X ( x) = 2 for


2.3 < x < 2.8 and all rods will meet specifications.

x2

4-12. Because the integral ∫ f ( x ) dx


x1
is not changed whether or not any of the endpoints x1 and

x2 are included in the integral, all the probabilities listed are equal.

Section 4-3

4-13. a) P(X<2.8) = P(X ≤ 2.8) because X is a continuous random variable.


Then, P(X<2.8) = F(2.8) = 0.3(2.8) = 0.84.
b) P ( X > 1.5) = 1 − P( X ≤ 1.5) = 1 − 0.3(1.5) = 0.55

c) P( X < −2) = FX (−2) = 0

d) P( X > 6) = 1 − FX (6) = 0
Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 5th edition 15 January 2010

4-14. a) P( X < 1.7) = P( X ≤ 1.7) = FX (1.7) because X is a continuous random variable. Then,

FX (1.7) = 0.2(1.7) + 0.5 = 0.84


b) P ( X > −1.5) = 1 − P ( X ≤ −1.5) = 1 − 0.2 = 0.8
c) P(X < -2) = 0.1
d) P(−1 < X < 1) = P(−1 < X ≤ 1) = FX (1) − FX (−1) = 0.7 − 0.3 = 0.4

x
x
4-15. Now, f ( x) = e −2 x for 0 < x and FX ( x) = ∫ e −2 x dx = −e−2 x = 1 − e−2 x
0
0

⎧ 0, x ≤ 0
for 0 < x. Then, FX ( x) = ⎨ −2 x
⎩1 − e , x > 0

3(8 x − x 2 )
4-16. Now, f ( x ) = for 0 < x < 8 and
256
x
x
3(8u − u 2 ) ⎛ 3u 2 u 3 ⎞ 3x 2 x3
FX ( x) = ∫ du = ⎜ − ⎟ = − for 0 < x.
0
256 ⎝ 64 256 ⎠ 0 64 256

⎧ 0, x ≤ 0
⎪⎪ 3x 2 x3
Then, FX ( x ) = ⎨ − ,0 ≤ x <8
⎪ 64 256
⎪⎩ 1, x ≥8

4-17. Now, f ( x ) = 0.5 cos x for −π/2 < x < π/2 and
x

∫ 0.5 cos udu = (0.5 sin x)


x
FX ( x ) = −π / 2
= 0.5 sin x + 0.5
− /2π

⎧ 0, x ≤ −π / 2

Then, FX ( x ) = ⎨0.5 sin x + 0.5, − π / 2 ≤ x < π / 2
⎪ 1, x ≥π /2

2
4-18. Now, f ( x ) = for x > 1 and
x3
Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 5th edition 15 January 2010

x x
2 ⎛ −1 ⎞ ⎛ −1 ⎞
FX ( x) = ∫ 3
du = ⎜ 2 ⎟ = ⎜ 2 ⎟ + 1
1
u ⎝ u ⎠1 ⎝ x ⎠

⎧ 0, x ≤ 1

Then, FX ( x) = ⎨ 1
⎪⎩1 − x 2 , x > 1

x x
u u2 x2 − 9
4-19. Now, f ( x) = x / 7 for 3 < x < 5 and FX ( x) = ∫ du = =
3
7 14 3 14

⎧ 0, x < 3
⎪ 2
⎪x −9
for 0 < x. Then, FX ( x) = ⎨ , 3≤ x <5
⎪ 14
⎪⎩ 1, x ≥ 5

e − x /1000
4-20. Now, f ( x) = for 0 < x and
1000

x
1

x
FX ( x) = e − x /1000 dy = −e − y /1000 0
= 1 − e − x /1000 for 0 < x.
1000 0
⎧ 0, x ≤ 0
Then, FX ( x) = ⎨ − x / 1000
⎩1 − e , x>0

P(X>3000) = 1 − P(X ≤ 3000) = 1 − F(3000) = e−3000/1000 = 0.5

x
4-21. Now, f(x) = 2 for 2.3 < x < 2.8 and F ( x) = ∫ 2dy = 2 x − 4.6
2.3

for 2.3 < x < 2.8. Then,


⎧ 0, x < 2.3

F ( x) = ⎨2 x − 4.6, 2.3 ≤ x < 2.8
⎪ 1, 2.8 ≤ x

Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 5th edition 15 January 2010

P( X > 2.7) = 1 − P( X ≤ 2.7) = 1 − F (2.7) = 1 − 0.8 = 0.2 because X is a continuous random


variable.

e− x /10
4-22. Now, f ( x) = for 0 < x and
10
x
x
FX ( x ) = 1/10 ∫ e − x /10 dx = − e − x /10 = 1 − e − x /10
0
0

for 0 < x.
⎧ 0, x ≤ 0
Then, FX ( x) = ⎨ − x /10
⎩1 − e , x>0
a) P(X<60) = F(60) =1 - e-6 = 1 - 0.002479 = 0.9975
30
b) 1/10 ∫ e − x /10 dx = e −1.5 − e −3 = 0.173343
15

c) P(X1>40) + P(X1 < 40 and X2 > 40) = e−4 + (1 − e−4) e−4 = 0.0363

d) P(15 < X < 30) = F(30) − F(15) = e−1.5 − e−3 = 0.173343

x
x
4-23. F ( x) = ∫ 0.5 xdx = 0.5 x 2
2 0
= 0.25 x 2 for 0 < x < 2. Then,
0

⎧0, x<0



F ( x) = ⎨0.25 x 2 , 0≤ x<2


⎪⎩1, 2≤ x

4-24. f ( x) = 2e−2 x , x > 0


⎪0.25, 0 < x < 4
4-25. f ( x) = ⎨
⎪⎩0.04, 4 ≤ x < 9
Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 5th edition 15 January 2010


⎪0.25, − 2 < x < 1
4-26. f X ( x) = ⎨
⎪0.5, 1 ≤ x < 1.5

Section 4-4

4 4
x2
4-27. E ( X ) = ∫ 0.3xdx = 0.3 = 2.4
0
2 0
4 4
( x − 2.4)3
V ( X ) = ∫ 0.3( x − 2.4) dx = 0.3 2
= 0.4096 + 1.3824 = 1.792
0
3 0

4 4
x3
4-28. E ( X ) = ∫ 0.13 x dx = 0.13
2
= 2.7733
0
3 0
4 4
V ( X ) = ∫ 0.13 x( x − 83 ) 2 dx = 0.13∫ ( x 3 − 163 x 2 + 649 x)dx
0 0
4
= 0.13( x4 − 163 + 649 ⋅ 12 x 2 ) = 0.92444
4 3
x
3 0

1 1
x4
4-29. E ( X ) = ∫ 1.5 x dx = 1.5
3
=0
−1
4 −1

1 1
V ( X ) = ∫ 1.5 x 3 ( x − 0) 2 dx = 1.5 ∫ x 4 dx
−1 −1
5
x 1
= 1.5 −1
= 0.6
5

5 5
x x3 53 − 33
4-30. E ( X ) = ∫ x dx = = = 8.167
3
4 12 3 12
Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 5th edition 15 January 2010

5
x
5
⎛ x 3 16.334 x 2 66.6999 x ⎞
V ( X ) = ∫ ( x − 8.167) 2 dx = ∫ ⎜ − + ⎟dx
3
4 3⎝
4 4 4 ⎠
5
1 ⎛ x 4 18.334 x 3 66.6999 x 2 ⎞
= ⎜ − + ⎟ = 34.0055
4⎝ 4 3 2 ⎠3

8 8
3(8 x − x 2 ) x 3 3x 4
4-31. E( X ) = ∫ x dx = ( − ) = (16 − 12) − 0 = 4
0
256 32 1024 0
8
3(8 x − x 2 )
8
⎛ − 3 x 4 3 x 3 15 x 2 3 x ⎞
V ( X ) = ∫ ( x − 4) 2
dx = ∫ ⎜⎜ + − + ⎟⎟dx
0
256 0⎝
256 16 16 2⎠
8
⎛ − 3x 5 3x 4 5 x 3 3x 2 ⎞ − 384
V ( X ) = ⎜⎜ + − + ⎟⎟ = ( + 192 − 160 + 48) = 3.2
⎝ 1280 64 16 4 ⎠0 5


4-32. E ( X ) = ∫ xe − x dx . Use integration by parts to obtain
1


α
E ( X ) = ∫ xe − x dx = −e − x ( x + 1) = 0 − (−1) = 1
0
0


V ( X ) = ∫ ( x − 1) 2 e − x dx Use double integration by parts to obtain
0


α
V ( X ) = ∫ ( x − 1) 2 e − x dx = −( x − 1) 2 e − x − 2( x − 1)e − x − 2e − x ) = 1
0
0



4-33. E ( X ) = ∫ x 2 x −3 dx = −2 x −1 =2
1
1

1210
1210
4-34. a) E ( X ) = ∫
1200
x0.1dx = 0.05 x 2
1200
= 1205

1210 1210
( x − 1205)3
V ( X ) = ∫ ( x − 1205) 0.1dx = 0.1
2
= 8.333
1200
3 1200

Therefore, σ x = V ( X ) = 2.887
Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 5th edition 15 January 2010

b) Clearly, centering the process at the center of the specifications results in the greatest
proportion of cables within specifications.
1205

∫ 0.1dx = 0.1x
1205
P(1195 < X < 1205) = P(1200 < X < 1205) = 1200
= 0.5
1200

120
600
∫x
120
4-35. a) E ( X ) = 2
dx = 600 ln x 100 = 109.39
100 x
120 120
600
∫ ( x − 109.39) dx = 600 ∫ 1 − (109.39 ) 2
V (X ) = 2 2 (109.39 )
x
+ x2
dx
100 x2 100
120
= 600( x − 218.78 ln x − 109.39 2 x −1 ) 100
= 33.19

b.) Average cost per part = $0.50*109.39 = $54.70

35 35 70 70 35
4-36. (a) E ( X ) = ∫ xf ( x)dx = ∫ dx = ln x | = 4.3101
0.5 0.5 69 x 69 0.5
35 35 70
E ( X 2 ) = ∫ x 2 f ( x)dx = ∫ dx = 35
0.5 0.5 69
Var(X) = E ( X 2 ) − ( EX ) 2 = 35 − 18.5770 = 16.423
(b) 3*4.3101 = 12.9303
35
(c) P ( X > 25) = ∫ f ( x)dx = 0.0116
25


4-37. a) E ( X ) = ∫ x10e −10( x −5) dx .
5

Using integration by parts with u = x and dv = 10e −10( x −5) dx , we obtain


∞ ∞
−10( x − 5) ∞ e −10( x −5)
E ( X ) = − xe + ∫e −10( x − 5)
dx = 5 − = 5.1
5
5
10 5
Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 5th edition 15 January 2010


Now, V ( X ) = ∫ ( x − 5.1) 210e −10( x −5) dx . Using the integration by parts with u = ( x − 5.1)2
5



and dv = 10e −10( x −5) , we obtain V ( X ) = − ( x − 5.1) 2 e −10 ( x −5) + 2 ∫ ( x − 5.1)e −10 ( x −5) dx .
5
5

From the definition of E(X) the integral above is recognized to equal 0.


Therefore, V ( X ) = (5 − 5.1) 2 = 0.01 .


b) P( X > 5.1) = ∫ 10e −10( x −5) dx = − e −10( x −5) = e −10( 5.1−5) = 0.3679
5.1
5.1

Section 4-5

4-38. a) E(X) = (5.5 + 2.5)/2 = 4


(5.5 − 2.5) 2
V (X ) = = 0.75, and σ x = 0.75 = 0.866
12
2.5

∫ 0.25dx = 0.25x
2.5
b) P( X < 2.5) = 2.5
=0
2.5

⎧ 0, x < 2.5

c) F ( x) = ⎨0.25 x − 0.375, 2.5 ≤ x < 5.5
⎪ 1, 5.5 ≤ x

4-39. a) E(X) = (−1 + 1)/2 = 0,


(1 − (−1)) 2
V (X ) = = 1/ 3, and σ x = 0.577
12
x x
b) P(− x < X < x) = ∫
−x
1
2
dt = 0.5t
−x
= 0.5(2 x) = x

Therefore, x should equal 0.90.


⎧ 0, x < −1

c) F ( x) = ⎨0.5 x + 0.5, − 1 ≤ x < 1
⎪ 1, 1≤ x

Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 5th edition 15 January 2010

4.40 a) f(x) = 2.0 for 49.75 < x < 50.25.

E(X) = (50.25 + 49.75)/2 = 50.0,


(50.25 − 49.75) 2
V (X ) = = 0.0208, and σ x = 0.144 .
12
x
b) F ( x) = ∫ 2.0dy for 49.75 < x < 50.25.
49.75
Therefore,

⎧0, x < 49.75



⎪⎪
F ( x) = ⎨2 x − 99.5, 49.75 ≤ x < 50.25


1, 50.25 ≤ x
⎩⎪
c) P( X < 50.1) = F (50.1) = 2(50.1) − 99.5 = 0.7

4-41. a) The distribution of X is f(x) = 6.67 for 0.90 < x < 1.05. Now,
⎧0, x < 0.90


FX ( x) = ⎨6.67 x − 6, 0.90 ≤ x < 1.05

⎪1, 1.05 ≤ x

b) P( X > 1.02) = 1 − P( X ≤ 1.02) = 1 − FX (1.02) = 0.2
c) If P(X > x) = 0.90, then 1 − F(X) = 0.90 and F(X) = 0.10. Therefore, 6.67x − 6 = 0.10
and x = 0.915.
(1.05 − 0.9) 2
d) E(X) = (1.05 + 0.9)/2 = 0.975 and V(X) = = 0.00188
12

(1.5 + 2.2)
4-42. E( X ) = = 1.85 min
2
(2.2 − 1.5) 2
V (X ) = = 0.0408 min 2
12
2 2
1
∫1.5 (2.2 − 1.5) dx = 1∫.5(1 / 0.7)dx = (1 / 0.7) x 1.5 = (1 / 0.7)(0.5) = 0.7143
2
b) P( X < 2) =
Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 5th edition 15 January 2010

x x
1
c.) F ( X ) = ∫1.5 (2.2 − 1.5) dy = 1∫.5(1 / 0.7)dy = (1 / 0.7) y |1.5 for 1.5 < x < 2.2. Therefore,
x

⎧ 0, x < 1.5

F ( x) = ⎨(1 / 0.7) x − 2.14, 1.5 ≤ x < 2.2
⎪ 1, 2.2 ≤ x

4-43. a) The distribution of X is f(x) = 100 for 0.2050 < x < 0.2150. Therefore,

⎧0, x < 0.2050





F ( x) = ⎨100x − 20.50, 0.2050 ≤ x < 0.2150


⎪⎩1, 0.2150 ≤ x

b) P( X > 0.2125) = 1 − F (0.2125) = 1 − [100(0.2125) − 20.50] = 0.25

c) If P(X > x) = 0.10, then 1 − F(X) = 0.10 and F(X) = 0.90.

Therefore, 100x − 20.50 = 0.90 and x = 0.2140.

d) E(X) = (0.2050 + 0.2150)/2 = 0.2100 µm and


(0.2150 − 0.2050) 2
V(X) = = 8.33 × 10 −6 µm 2
12

4-44. Let X denote the changed weight.


Var(X) = 22/12
Stdev(X) = 0.5774

4-45. (a) Let X be the time (in minutes) between arrival and 8:30 am.
1
f ( x) = , for 0 ≤ x ≤ 90
90
x
So the CDF is F ( x) = , for 0 ≤ x ≤ 90
90
(b) E ( X ) = 45 , Var(X) = 902/12 = 675
Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 5th edition 15 January 2010

(c) The event is an arrival in the intervals 8:50-9:00 am or 9:20-9:30 am or 9:50-10:00 am


so that the probability = 30/90 = 1/3
(d) Similarly, the event is an arrival in the intervals 8:30-8:40 am or 9:00-9:10 am or
9:30-9:40 am so that the probability = 30/90 = 1/3

4-46. a) E(X) = (380 + 374)/2 = 377


(380 − 374) 2
V (X ) = = 3, and σ x = 1.7321
12
b) Let X be the volume of a shampoo (milliliters)
375 375
1 1 1
P ( X < 375) = ∫374 6 dx = 6 x 374 = 6 (1) = 0.1667
c) The distribution of X is f(x) = 1/6 for 374 ≤ x ≤ 380 .

⎧ 0, x < 374

Now, FX ( x ) = ⎨( x − 374) / 6, 374 ≤ x < 380
⎪ 1, 380 ≤ x

P(X > x) = 0.95, then 1 – F(X) = 0.95 and F(X) = 0.05.
Therefore, (x − 374)/6 = 0.05 and x = 374.3
d) Since E(X) = 377, then the mean extra cost = (377 − 375) × $0.002 = $0.004 per
container.

4-47. (a) Let X be the arrival time (in minutes) after 9:00 A.M.
(120 − 0) 2
V (X ) = = 1200 and σ x = 34.64
12
b) We want to determine the probability the message arrives in any of the following
intervals: 9:05–9:15 A.M. or 9:35–9:45 A.M. or 10:05–10:15 A.M. or 10:35–10:45 A.M..
The probability of this event is 40/120 = 1/3.
c) We want to determine the probability the message arrives in any of the following
intervals: 9:15–9:30 A.M. or 9:45–10:00 A.M. or 10:15–10:30 A.M. or 10:45–11:00
A.M. The probability of this event is 60/120 = 1/2.

4-48. (a) Let X denote the measured voltage.


Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 5th edition 15 January 2010

1
So the probability mass function is P ( X = x) = , for x = 247,..., 253
6
(b) E(X) = 250
(253 − 247 + 1) 2 − 1
Var(X)= =4
12

Section 4-6
4-49. a) P(Z<1.32) = 0.90658
b) P(Z<2.0) = 0.97725
c) P(Z>1.45) = 1 − 0.92647 = 0.07353
d) P(Z > −2.15) = p(Z < 2.15) = 0.98422
e) P(−2.34 < Z < 1.76) = P(Z<1.76) − P(Z > 2.34) = 0.95116

4-50. a) P(−1 < Z < 1) = P(Z < 1) − P(Z > 1)


= 0.84134 − (1 − 0.84134)
= 0.68268
b) P(−2 < Z < 2) = P(Z < 2) − [1 − P(Z < 2)]
= 0.9545
c) P(−3 < Z < 3) = P(Z < 3) − [1 − P(Z < 3)]
= 0.9973
d) P(Z > 2) = 1 − P(Z < 2)
= 0.02275
e) P(0 < Z < 1) = P(Z < 1) − P(Z < 0)
= 0.84134 − 0.5 = 0.34134

4-51. a) P(Z < 1.28) = 0.90


b) P(Z < 0) = 0.5
c) If P(Z > z) = 0.1, then P(Z < z) = 0.90 and z = 1.28
d) If P(Z > z) = 0.9, then P(Z < z) = 0.10 and z = −1.28
e) P(−1.24 < Z < z) = P(Z < z) − P(Z < −1.24)
= P(Z < z) − 0.10749.
Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 5th edition 15 January 2010

Therefore, P(Z < z) = 0.8 + 0.10749 = 0.90749 and z = 1.33

4-52. a) Because of the symmetry of the normal distribution, the area in each tail of the
distribution must equal 0.05. Therefore the value in Table III that corresponds to 0.95 is
1.65. Thus, z = 1.65.
b) Find the value in Table III corresponding to 0.995. z = 2.58.
c) Find the value in Table III corresponding to 0.85. z = 1.04
d) Find the value in Table III corresponding to 0.99865. z = 3.0.

4-53. a) P(X < 12) = P(Z < (12−10)/2)


= P(Z < 1)
= 0.841345
b) P(X > 9) = 1 − P(X < 9)
= 1 − P(Z < (9−10)/2)
= 1 − P(Z < −0.5)
= 0.69146.
⎛ 6 − 10 14 − 10 ⎞
c) P(6 < X < 14) = P ⎜ <Z< ⎟
⎝ 2 2 ⎠
= P(−2 < Z < 2)
= P(Z < 2) −P(Z < − 2)]
= 0.9545.
⎛ 2 − 10 4 − 10 ⎞
d) P(2 < X < 4) = P ⎜ <Z< ⎟
⎝ 2 2 ⎠
= P(−4 < Z < −3)
= P(Z < −3) − P(Z < −4)
= 0.00132
e) P(−2 < X < 8) = P(X < 8) − P(X < −2)
⎛ 8 − 10 ⎞ ⎛ −2 − 10 ⎞
= P⎜Z < ⎟ − P⎜Z < ⎟
⎝ 2 ⎠ ⎝ 2 ⎠
= P(Z < −1) − P(Z < −6)
= 0.15866.
Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 5th edition 15 January 2010

⎛ x − 10 ⎞
4-54. a) P(X > x) = P⎜ Z > ⎟ = 0.5. Therefore, = 0 and x = 10.
⎝ 2 ⎠

⎛ x − 10 ⎞ ⎛ x − 10 ⎞
b) P(X > x) = P⎜ Z > ⎟ = 1 − P⎜ Z < ⎟
⎝ 2 ⎠ ⎝ 2 ⎠
= 0.95.
⎛ x − 10 ⎞ x − 10
Therefore, P ⎜ Z < ⎟ = 0.05 and = −1.64. Consequently, x = 6.72.
⎝ 2 ⎠ 2

⎛ x − 10 ⎞ ⎛ x − 10 ⎞
c) P(x < X < 10) = P⎜ < Z < 0 ⎟ = P ( Z < 0) − P ⎜ Z < ⎟
⎝ 2 ⎠ ⎝ 2 ⎠

⎛ x − 10 ⎞
= 0.5 − P⎜ Z < ⎟ = 0.2.
⎝ 2 ⎠

⎛ x − 10 ⎞ x − 10
Therefore, P ⎜ Z < ⎟ = 0.3 and = −0.52. Consequently, x = 8.96.
⎝ 2 ⎠ 2

d) P(10 − x < X < 10 + x) = P(−x/2 < Z < x/2) = 0.90.


Therefore, x/2 = 1.65 and x = 3.3
e) P(10 − x < X < 10 + x) = P(−x/2 < Z < x/2) = 0.99.
Therefore, x/2 = 2.58 and x = 5.16

⎛ 11 − 5 ⎞
4-55. a) P(X < 11) = P⎜ Z < ⎟
⎝ 4 ⎠
= P(Z < 1.5)
= 0.93319
⎛ 0−5⎞
b) P(X > 0) = P⎜ Z > ⎟
⎝ 4 ⎠
= P(Z > −1.25)
= 1 − P(Z < −1.25)
= 0.89435
⎛3−5 7 −5⎞
c) P(3 < X < 7) = P⎜ <Z< ⎟
⎝ 4 4 ⎠
Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 5th edition 15 January 2010

= P(−0.5 < Z < 0.5)


= P(Z < 0.5) − P(Z < −0.5)
= 0.38292
⎛−2−5 9−5⎞
d) P(−2 < X < 9) = P⎜ <Z< ⎟
⎝ 4 4 ⎠
= P(−1.75 < Z < 1)
= P(Z < 1) − P(Z < −1.75)]
= 0.80128
⎛2−5 8−5⎞
e) P(2 < X < 8) = P⎜ <Z< ⎟
⎝ 4 4 ⎠
= P(−0.75 < Z < 0.75)
= P(Z < 0.75) − P(Z < −0.75)
= 0.54674

⎛ x − 5⎞
4-56. a) P(X > x) = P⎜ Z > ⎟ = 0.5.
⎝ 4 ⎠
Therefore, x = 5.
⎛ x − 5⎞
b) P(X > x) = P⎜ Z > ⎟ = 0.95.
⎝ 4 ⎠

⎛ x − 5⎞
Therefore, P⎜ Z < ⎟ = 0.05
⎝ 4 ⎠
x −5
Therefore, = −1.64, and x = −1.56.
4
⎛x−5 ⎞
c) P(x < X < 9) = P⎜ < Z < 1⎟ = 0.2.
⎝ 4 ⎠
⎛ x−5⎞
Therefore, P(Z < 1) − P ⎜ Z < ⎟ = 0.2 where P(Z < 1) = 0.84134.
⎝ 4 ⎠

⎛ x−5⎞ x −5
Thus P ⎜ Z < ⎟ = 0.64134. Consequently, = 0.36 and x = 6.44.
⎝ 4 ⎠ 4
Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 5th edition 15 January 2010

⎛3−5 x − 5⎞
d) P(3 < X < x) = P⎜ <Z< ⎟ = 0.95.
⎝ 4 4 ⎠

⎛ x − 5⎞ ⎛ x − 5⎞
Therefore, P⎜ Z < ⎟ − P(Z < −0.5) = 0.95 and P⎜ Z < ⎟ − 0.30854 = 0.95.
⎝ 4 ⎠ ⎝ 4 ⎠
Consequently,
⎛ x − 5⎞
P⎜ Z < ⎟ = 1.25854. Because a probability can not be greater than one, there is no
⎝ 4 ⎠
solution for x. In fact, P(3 < X) = P(−0.5 < Z) = 0.69146. Therefore, even if x is set to
infinity the probability requested cannot equal 0.95.
e) This part of the exercise was changed in Printing 3 from P(− x < X < x) to P(− x < X −
5 < x).
⎛ 5− x −5 5+ x−5⎞
P(− x < X − 5 < x) = P(5 − x < X < 5 + x) = P ⎜ <Z< ⎟
⎝ 4 4 ⎠
⎛ −x x⎞
= P⎜ < Z < ⎟ = 0.99
⎝ 4 4⎠
Therefore, x/4 = 2.58 and x = 10.32.

⎛ 6250 − 6000 ⎞
4-57. a) P(X < 6250) = P⎜ Z < ⎟
⎝ 100 ⎠
= P(Z < 2.5)
= 0.99379
⎛ 5800 − 6000 5900 − 6000 ⎞
b) P(5800 < X < 5900) = P⎜ <Z< ⎟
⎝ 100 100 ⎠
= P(−2 < Z < −1)
= P(Z <− 1) − P(Z < −2)
= 0.13591

⎛ x − 6000 ⎞
c) P(X > x) = P⎜ Z > ⎟ = 0.95.
⎝ 100 ⎠
x − 6000
Therefore, = −1.65 and x = 5835.
100
Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 5th edition 15 January 2010

4-58. (a) Let X denote the time.


X ∼ N (260,502 )

⎛ 240 − 260 ⎞
P ( X > 240) = 1 − P ( X ≤ 240) = 1 − Φ ⎜ ⎟ = 1 − Φ (−0.4) = 1 − 0.3446 = 0.6554
⎝ 50 ⎠
(b) Φ −1 (0.25) × 50 + 260 = 226.2755

Φ −1 (0.75) × 50 + 260 = 293.7245

(c) Φ −1 (0.05) × 50 + 260 = 177.7550

4-59. (a) 1 − Φ (2) = 0.0228


(b) Let X denote the time.
X ~ N(129, 142)
⎛ 100 − 129 ⎞
P ( X < 100) = Φ⎜ ⎟ = Φ (−2.0714) = 0.01916
⎝ 14 ⎠
(c) Φ −1 (0.95) ×14 + 129 = 152.0280
95% of the surgeries will be finished within 152.028 minutes.
(d) 199>>152.028 so the volume of such surgeries is very small (less than 5%).

4-60. Let X denote the cholesterol level.


X ~ N(159.2, σ2)
⎛ 200 − 159.2 ⎞
(a) P ( X < 200) = Φ ⎜ ⎟ = 0.841
⎝ σ ⎠
200 − 159.2
= Φ −1 (0.841)
σ
200 − 159.2
σ= = 40.8582
Φ −1 (0.841)

(b) Φ −1 (0.25) × 40.8528 + 159.2 = 131.6452

Φ −1 (0.75) × 40.8528 + 159.2 = 186.7548

(c) Φ −1 (0.9) × 40.8528 + 159.2 = 211.5550


(d) Φ (2) − Φ (1) = 0.1359
Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 5th edition 15 January 2010

(e) 1 − Φ (2) = 0.0228


(f) Φ (1) = 0.8413

⎛ 0.61 − 0.6 ⎞
4-61. a) P(X > 0.61) = P ⎜ Z > ⎟
⎝ 0.055 ⎠
= P(Z > 0.18)
= 1 − P(Z <0.18)
= 0.4286
⎛ 0.47 − 0.6 0.63 − 0.6 ⎞
b) P(0.47 < X < 0.63) = P ⎜ <Z< ⎟
⎝ 0.055 0.055 ⎠
= P(−2.36 < Z < 0.55)
= P(Z < 0.55) − P(Z < −2.36)
= 0.70884 − 0.009137
= 0.6997
⎛ x − 0.6 ⎞
c) P(X < x) = P ⎜ Z < ⎟ = 0.90.
⎝ 0.055 ⎠
Therefore, x− 0.6
0.055
= 1.28 and x = 0.6704.

⎛ 360 − 370 ⎞
4-62. a) P(X < 360) = P ⎜ Z < ⎟ = P(Z < −2) ≅ 0.02275
⎝ 5 ⎠
⎛ 365 − 370 ⎞
b) P(X < 365) = P ⎜ Z < ⎟ = P(Z < −1) = 0.158655
⎝ 5 ⎠
and
⎛ 375 − 370 ⎞
P(X > 375) = P ⎜ Z > ⎟ = P(Z > 1) = 0.158655.
⎝ 5 ⎠
Therefore, the proportion of cans scrapped is 0.158655 + 0.158655 = 0.31731, or
31.73%
c) P(370 − x < X < 370 + x) = 0.99.
⎛ x x⎞
Therefore, P ⎜ − < Z < ⎟ = 0.99
⎝ 5 5⎠
Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 5th edition 15 January 2010

⎛ x⎞
Consequently, P ⎜ Z < ⎟ = 0.995 and x = 5(2.58) = 12.9.
⎝ 5⎠
The limits are (357.1, 382.9).

⎛ 365 − µ ⎞
4-63. a) If P(X > 365) = 0.999, then P ⎜ Z > ⎟ = 0.999.
⎝ 5 ⎠
365 − µ
Therefore, = −3.09 and µ = 380.45.
5
⎛ 365 − µ ⎞
b) If P(X > 365) = 0.999, then P ⎜ Z > ⎟ = 0.999.
⎝ 2 ⎠
365 − µ
Therefore, = −3.09 and µ = 371.18.
2

⎛ 0.5 − 0.5 ⎞
4-64. a) P(X > 0.5) = P ⎜ Z > ⎟
⎝ 0.05 ⎠
= P(Z > 0)
= 1 − 0.5
= 0.5
⎛ 0.45 − 0.5 0.55 − 0.5 ⎞
b) P(0.45 < X < 0.55) = P ⎜ <Z< ⎟
⎝ 0.05 0.05 ⎠
= P(−1 < Z < 1)
= P(Z < 1) − P(Z < −1)
= 0.68269
⎛ x − 0.5 ⎞
c) P(X > x) = 0.90, then P ⎜ Z > ⎟ = 0.90.
⎝ 0.05 ⎠
x − 0.5
Therefore, = −1.28 and x = 0.436.
0.05

⎛ 70 − 60 ⎞
4-65. a) P(X > 70) = P⎜ Z > ⎟
⎝ 4 ⎠
= 1 − P( Z < 2.5)
= 1 − 0.99379 = 0.00621
Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 5th edition 15 January 2010

⎛ 58 − 60 ⎞
b) P(X < 58) = P⎜ Z < ⎟
⎝ 4 ⎠
= P( Z < −0.5)
= 0.308538

c) 1, 000, 000 bytes *8 bits/byte = 8, 000, 000 bits


8,000,000 bits
= 133.33 seconds
60,000 bits/sec

4-66. Let X denote the height.


X ~ N(160, 52)
⎛ 175 − 160 ⎞ ⎛ 145 − 160 ⎞
(a) P (145 < X < 175) = Φ ⎜ ⎟−Φ⎜ ⎟ = Φ (3) − Φ (−3) = 0.9973
⎝ 5 ⎠ ⎝ 5 ⎠
(b) Φ −1 (0.25) × 5 + 160 = 156.6275

Φ −1 (0.75) × 5 + 160 = 163.3725

(c) Φ −1 (0.05) × 5 + 160 = 151.77575

Φ −1 (0.95) × 5 + 160 = 168.22425


5
⎡ ⎛ 170 − 160 ⎞ ⎤
= [1 − Φ (2) ] = 6.0942 × 10−9
5
(d) ⎢1 − Φ ⎜ ⎟ ⎥
⎣ ⎝ 5 ⎠⎦

4-67. Let X denote the height.


X ~ N(1.41, 0.012)
1.42 − 1.41
(a) P ( X > 1.42) = 1 − P ( X ≤ 1.42) = 1 − Φ ( ) = 1 − Φ (1) = 0.1587
0.01
(b) Φ −1 (0.05) × 0.01 + 1.41 = 1.3936

⎛ 1.44 − 1.41⎞ ⎛ 1.38 − 1.41⎞


(c) P (1.38 < X < 1.44) = Φ ⎜ ⎟ − Φ⎜ = Φ (3) − Φ (−3) = 0.9973
⎝ 0.01 ⎠ ⎝ 0.01 ⎟⎠

4-68. Let X denote the demand for water daily.


Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 5th edition 15 January 2010

X ~ N(1170, 1702)
⎛ 1320 − 1170 ⎞ ⎛ 150 ⎞
(a) P ( X > 1320) = 1 − P( X ≤ 1320) = 1 − Φ ⎜ ⎟ = 1− Φ ⎜ = 0.1894
⎝ 170 ⎠ ⎝ 170 ⎟⎠

(b) Φ −1 (0.99) × 170 + 1170 = 1566.1

(c) Φ −1 (0.05) × 170 + 1170 = 891.2

(d) X ∼ N (µ , 1702 )

⎛ 1320 − µ ⎞
P ( X > 1320) = 1 − P( X ≤ 1320) = 1 − Φ ⎜ = 0.01
⎝ 170 ⎟⎠

⎛ 1320 − µ ⎞
Φ⎜ = 0.99
⎝ 170 ⎟⎠

µ = 1320 − Φ −1 (0.99) × 170 = 923.9

⎛ 5000 − 7000 ⎞
4-69. a) P(X < 5000) = P⎜ Z < ⎟
⎝ 600 ⎠
= P(Z < −3.33) = 0.00043.
⎛ x − 7000 ⎞ x − 7000
b) P(X > x) = 0.95. Therefore, P⎜ Z > ⎟ = 0.95 and = −1.64.
⎝ 600 ⎠ 600
Consequently, x = 6016.
⎛ 7000 − 7000 ⎞
c) P(X > 7000) = P⎜ Z > ⎟ = P ( Z > 0) = 0.5
⎝ 600 ⎠
P(three lasers operating after 7000 hours) = (1/2)3 =1/8

⎛ 0.0065 − 0.005 ⎞
4-70. a) P(X > 0.0065) = P ⎜ Z > ⎟
⎝ 0.001 ⎠
= P(Z > 1.5)
= 1-P(Z < 1.5)
= 0.06681.
⎛ 0.0035 − 0.005 0.0065 − 0.005 ⎞
b) P(0.0035 < X < 0.0065) = P ⎜ <Z< ⎟
⎝ 0.001 0.001 ⎠
= P(−1.5 < Z < 1.5)
Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 5th edition 15 January 2010

= 0.86638.

⎛ 0.0035 − 0.005 0.0065 − 0.005 ⎞


c) P(0.0035 < X < 0.0065) = P ⎜ <Z< ⎟
⎝ σ σ ⎠
⎛ −0.0015 0.0015 ⎞
= P⎜ <Z< .
⎝ σ σ ⎟⎠
⎛ 0.0015 ⎞ 0.0015
Therefore, P ⎜ Z < ⎟ = 0.9975. Therefore, = 2.81 and σ = 0.000534.
⎝ σ ⎠ σ

⎛ 0.37 − 0.35 ⎞
4-71. a) P(X > 0.37) = P ⎜ Z > ⎟ = P(Z > 1.33) = 0.0918
⎝ 0.015 ⎠

⎛ 0.37 − 0.35 ⎞
b) If P(X < 0.37) = 0.999, then P ⎜ Z < ⎟ = 0.999.
⎝ σ ⎠
0.02
Therefore, 0.02/σ = 3.09 and σ = = 0.0065
3.09
⎛ 0.37 − µ ⎞
c) If P(X < 0.37) = 0.999, then P ⎜ Z < ⎟ = 0.999.
⎝ 0.015 ⎠
0.37 − µ
Therefore, = 3.09 and µ = 0.3237
0.015

4-72. a) Let X denote the measurement error, X ~ N(0, 0.52)


P(166.5 < 165.5 + X < 167.5) = P(1 < X < 2)

⎛ 2 ⎞ ⎛ 1 ⎞
P (1 < X < 2) = Φ⎜ ⎟ − Φ⎜ ⎟ = Φ (4) − Φ (2) ≈ 1 − 0.977 = 0.023
⎝ 0.5 ⎠ ⎝ 0.5 ⎠
b) P(169.5 < 165.5 + X ) = P(4 < X )
P (4 < X ) = 1 − Φ (4) = 1 − 1 = 0

4-73. From the shape of the normal curve the probability maximizes for an interval symmetric
about the mean. Therefore a = 23.5 with probability = 0.1974. The standard deviation does
not affect the choice of interval.
Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 5th edition 15 January 2010

⎛ 9 − 7. 1 ⎞
4-74. a) P(X > 9) = P ⎜ Z > ⎟ = P (Z > 1.2667) = 0.1026
⎝ 1.5 ⎠

⎛ 8 − 7.1 ⎞ ⎛ 4 − 7.1 ⎞
b) P (4 < X < 8) = P( X < 8) − P( X < 4) = P ⎜ Z < ⎟ − P⎜ Z < ⎟
⎝ 1.5 ⎠ ⎝ 1.5 ⎠
= 0.7257 – 0.0192 = 0.7065.
c) P(X > x) = 0.05, then Φ −1 (0.95) × 1.5 + 7.1 = 1.6449 × 1.5 + 7.1 = 9.5673
d) P(X > 9) = 0.01, then P(X < 9) = 1 − 0.01 = 0.99
⎛ 9−µ⎞ 9−µ
P⎜ Z < ⎟ = 0.99 . Therefore, = 2.33 and µ = 5.51.
⎝ 1.5 ⎠ 1.5

⎛ 100 − 50.9 ⎞
4-75. a) P(X > 100) = P ⎜ Z > ⎟ = P (Z > 1.964) = 0.0248
⎝ 25 ⎠
⎛ 25 − 50.9 ⎞
b) P(X < 25) = P ⎜ Z < ⎟ = P (Z < −1.036) = 0.1501
⎝ 25 ⎠

c) P(X > x) = 0.05, then Φ −1 (0.95) × 25 + 50.9 = 1.6449 × 25 + 50.9 = 92.0213

⎛ 10 − 4.6 ⎞
4-76. a) P(X > 10) = P ⎜ Z > ⎟ = P (Z > 1.8621) = 0.0313
⎝ 2.9 ⎠

b) P(X > x) = 0.25, then Φ −1 (0.75) × 2.9 + 4.6 = 0.6745 × 2.9 + 4.6 = 6.5560

⎛ 0 − 4. 6 ⎞
c) P(X < 0) = P ⎜ Z < ⎟ = P (Z < −1.5862) = 0.0563
⎝ 2. 9 ⎠
The normal distribution is defined for all real numbers. In cases where the distribution is
truncated (because wait times cannot be negative), the normal distribution may not be a
good fit to the data.

Section 4-7

4-77. a) E(X) = 200(0.3) = 60, V(X) = 200(0.3)(0.7) = 42 and σ X = 42

⎛ 50.5 − 60 ⎞
Then, P( X ≤ 50) ≅ P ⎜ Z ≤ ⎟ = P( Z ≤ −1.47) = 0.0708
⎝ 42 ⎠
Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 5th edition 15 January 2010

⎛ 50.5 − 60 69.5 − 60 ⎞
b) P (50 < X < 70) ≅ P ⎜ <Z≤ ⎟ = P(−1.47 < Z ≤ 1.47)
⎝ 42 42 ⎠
= 0.9292 − 0.0708 = 0.8584

⎛ 59.5 − 60 60.5 − 60 ⎞
c) P (59.5 < X ≤ 60.5) ≅ P ⎜ <Z≤ ⎟ = P (−0.07715 < Z ≤ 0.07715)
⎝ 42 42 ⎠
= 0.0614

3
e−6 6i
4-78. a) P ( X < 4) = ∑ = 0.1512
i =0 i!
b) X is approximately X ~ N (6,6)

⎛ 4−6⎞
Then, P ( X < 4) ≅ P⎜⎜ Z < ⎟⎟ = P( Z < −0.82) = 0.206108
⎝ 6 ⎠
If a continuity correction were used the following result is obtained.
⎛ 3 + 0.5 − 6 ⎞
P ( X < 4) = P( X ≤ 3) ≅ P⎜⎜ Z ≤ ⎟⎟ = P( Z ≤ −1.02) = 0.1539
⎝ 6 ⎠
⎛9−6 12 − 6 ⎞
c) P (9 < X < 12) ≅ P ⎜ <Z< ⎟ = P(1.22 < Z < 2.45) = 0.1040
⎝ 6 6 ⎠
If a continuity correction were used the following result is obtained.
⎛ 10 − 0.5 − 6 11 + 0.5 − 6 ⎞
P (9 < X < 12) = P (10 ≤ X ≤ 11) ≅ P ⎜ ≤Z≤ ⎟
⎝ 6 6 ⎠
≅ P(1.43 < Z < 2.25) = 0.0642

X − 64 X − 64
4-79. Z= = is approximately N(0,1).
64 8

⎛ 72 − 64 ⎞
(a) P ( X > 72) = 1 − P ( X ≤ 72) = 1 − P⎜ Z ≤ ⎟
⎝ 8 ⎠
= 1 − P( Z ≤ 1) = 1 − 0.8413 = 0.1587
If a continuity correction were used the following result is obtained.
Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 5th edition 15 January 2010

⎛ 73 − 0.5 − 64 ⎞
P ( X > 72) = P( X ≥ 73) ≅ P⎜ Z ≥ ⎟
⎝ 8 ⎠
≅ P ( Z ≥ 1.06) = 1 − 0.855428 = 0.1446
(b) 0.5
If a continuity correction were used the following result is obtained.
⎛ 63 + 0.5 − 64 ⎞
P ( X < 64) = P( X ≤ 63) ≅ P⎜ Z ≤ ⎟ = P ( Z ≤ −0.06) = 0.4761
⎝ 8 ⎠
⎛ 68 − 64 ⎞ ⎛ 60 − 64 ⎞
(c) P (60 < X ≤ 68) = P ( X ≤ 68) − P ( X ≤ 60) = Φ ⎜ ⎟−Φ⎜ ⎟
⎝ 8 ⎠ ⎝ 8 ⎠
= Φ (0.5) − Φ (−0.5) = 0.3829
If a continuity correction were used the following result is obtained.
⎛ 61 − 0.5 − 64 68 + 0.5 − 64 ⎞
P (60 < X ≤ 68) = P(61 ≤ X ≤ 68) ≅ P⎜ <Z≤ ⎟
⎝ 8 8 ⎠
≅ P(−0.44 < Z ≤ 0.56) = 0.3823

4-80. Let X denote the number of defective chips in the lot.


Then, E(X) = 1000(0.02) = 20, V(X) = 1000(0.02)(0.98) = 19.6.
⎛ 25.5 − 20 ⎞
a) P ( X > 25) ≅ P ⎜ Z > ⎟ = P ( Z > 1.24) = 1 − P ( Z ≤ 1.24) = 0.107
⎝ 19.6 ⎠

⎛ .5 9.5 ⎞
b) P(20 < X < 30) ≅ P(20.5 < X < 29.5) = P ⎜ <Z< ⎟ = P(0.11 < Z < 2.15)
⎝ 19.6 19.6 ⎠
= 0.9842 − 0.5438 = 0.44

4-81. Let X denote the number of people with a disability in the sample.
X ~ BIN(1000, 0.193)
X − 1000 × 0.193 X − 193
Z= = is approximately N(0,1).
193(1 − 0.193) 12.4800

⎛ 200.5 − 193 ⎞
(a) P ( X > 200) = 1 − P ( X ≤ 200) = 1 − P( X ≤ 200 + 0.5) = 1 − Φ ⎜ ⎟ = 1 − Φ (0.6)
⎝ 12.48 ⎠
= 0.2743
Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 5th edition 15 January 2010

⎛ 299.5 − 193 ⎞ ⎛ 180.5 − 193 ⎞


(b) P (180 < X < 300) = P(181 ≤ X ≤ 299) = Φ ⎜ ⎟−Φ⎜ ⎟
⎝ 12.48 ⎠ ⎝ 12.48 ⎠
= Φ (8.53) − Φ (−1.00) = 0.8413

4-82. Let X denote the number of accounts in error in a month.


X ~ BIN(370,000, 0.001)
(a) E(X) = 370
Stdev(X) =19.2258
X − 370000 × 0.001 X − 370
(b) Z = = is approximately N(0,1).
370(1 − 0.001) 19.2258

⎛ 349.5 − 370 ⎞
P ( X < 350) = P( X ≤ 349 + 0.5) = Φ ⎜ ⎟ = Φ (−1.0663) = 0.1423
⎝ 19.2258 ⎠
(c) P( X ≤ v) = 0.95

v = Φ −1 (0.95) × 19.2258 + 370 = 400.61


(d)
⎛ 400.5 − 370 ⎞
P ( X > 400) = 1 − P( X ≤ 400) = 1 − P( X ≤ 400 + 0.5) = 1 − Φ ⎜ ⎟ = 1 − Φ (1.5864) = 0.0559
⎝ 19.2258 ⎠
Then the probability is 0.05592 = 3.125 × 10−3 .

4-83. Let X denote the number of original components that fail during the useful life of the
product. Then, X is a binomial random variable with p = 0.001 and n = 5000. Also, E(X) =
5000 (0.001) = 5 and V(X) = 5000(0.001)(0.999) = 4.995.
⎛ 9.5 − 5 ⎞
P( X ≥ 10) ≅ P⎜ Z ≥ ⎟ = P( Z ≥ 2.01) = 1 − P( Z < 2.01) = 1 − 0.978 = 0.022
⎝ 4.995 ⎠

4-84. Let X denote the number of errors on a web site. Then, X is a binomial random variable
with p = 0.05 and n = 100. Also, E(X) = 100 (0.05) = 5 and V(X) = 100(0.05)(0.95) =
4.75
⎛ 0.5 − 5 ⎞
P( X ≥ 1) ≅ P⎜ Z ≥ ⎟ = P( Z ≥ −2.06) = 1 − P( Z < −2.06) = 1 − 0.0197 = 0.9803
⎝ 4.75 ⎠
Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 5th edition 15 January 2010

4-85. Let X denote the number of particles in 10 cm2 of dust. Then, X is a Poisson random
variable with λ = 10(1000) = 10,000 . Also, E(X) = λ = 104 and V(X) = λ = 104

⎛ 10000 − 10000 ⎞
P ( X > 10000) = 1 − P ( X ≤ 10000) ≅ 1 − P⎜⎜ Z ≤ ⎟⎟ ≅ 1 − P ( Z ≤ 0) ≅ 0.5
⎝ 10000 ⎠
If a continuity correction were used the following result is obtained.
⎛ 10001 − 0.5 − 10000 ⎞
P ( X > 10000) = P ( X ≥ 10001) ≅ P⎜⎜ Z > ⎟⎟ ≅ P( Z > 0) ≅ 0.5
⎝ 10000 ⎠
4-86. X is the number of minor errors on a test pattern of 1000 pages of text. X is a Poisson
random variable with a mean of 0.4 per page
a) The numbers of errors per page are random variables. The assumption that the
occurrence of an event in a subinterval in a Poisson process is independent of events
in other subintervals implies that the numbers of events in disjoint intervals are
independent. The pages are disjoint intervals and consequently the error counts per
page are independent.
e −0.4 0.40
b) P ( X = 0) = = 0.670
0!
P( X ≥ 1) = 1 − P( X = 0) = 1 − 0.670 = 0.330
The mean number of pages with one or more errors is 1000(0.330) = 330 pages

c) Let Y be the number of pages with errors.


⎛ 350.5 − 330 ⎞
P (Y > 350) ≅ P ⎜ Z ≥ ⎟⎟ = P ( Z ≥ 1.38) = 1 − P ( Z < 1.38)
⎜ 1000(0.330)(0.670)
⎝ ⎠
= 1 − 0.9162 = 0.0838

4-87. Let X denote the number of hits to a web site. Then, X is a Poisson random variable with a
mean of λ = 10,000 hits per day. Also, E(X) = λ = 10, 000 = V(X).

⎛ 20, 000 − 10, 000 ⎞


a) P ( X > 20, 000) = 1 − P ( X ≤ 20, 000) = 1 − P ⎜ Z ≤ ⎟
⎝ 10, 000 ⎠
= 1 − P ( Z ≤ 100) ≈ 1 − 1 = 0
If a continuity correction were used the following result is obtained.
Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 5th edition 15 January 2010

⎛ 20,000 − 0.5 − 10,000 ⎞⎟


P ( X > 20,000) = P ( X ≥ 20,001) ≅ P⎜⎜ Z ≥ ⎟
⎝ 10,000 ⎠
= P ( Z ≥ 99.995) ≈ 1 − 1 = 0

⎛ 9,899 − 10,000 ⎞⎟
b) P ( X < 9,900) = P( X ≤ 9,899) = P⎜⎜ Z ≤ ⎟ = P( Z ≤ −1.01) = 0.1562
⎝ 10 ,000 ⎠
If a continuity correction were used the following result is obtained.
⎛ 9,899 + 0.5 − 10,000 ⎞⎟
P ( X < 9,900) = P( X ≤ 9,899) ≅ P⎜⎜ Z < ⎟ ≈ P ( Z ≥ −1.01) = 0.1562
⎝ 10,000 ⎠
⎛ x − 10,000 ⎞⎟
c) If P(X > x) = 0.01, then P⎜ Z > = 0.01.
⎜ 10,000 ⎟⎠

x − 10, 000
Therefore, = 2.33 and x = 13,300
10, 000
d) Let X denote the number of hits to a web site. Then, X is a Poisson random variable
with a mean of 10,000 per day. E(X) = λ = 10,000 and V(X) = 10,000

⎛ 10, 200 − 10, 000 ⎞


P ( X > 10, 200) ≅ P ⎜ Z ≥ ⎟ = P ( Z ≥ 2) = 1 − P( Z < 2)
⎝ 10, 000 ⎠
= 1 − 0.97725 = 0.02275

If a continuity correction is used we obtain the following result


⎛ 10, 200.5 − 10, 000 ⎞
P ( X > 10, 200) ≅ P ⎜ Z ≥ ⎟ = P ( Z ≥ 2.005) = 1 − P( Z < 2.005)
⎝ 10, 000 ⎠

that approximately equals the result without the continuity correction.

The expected number of days with more than 10,200 hits is (0.02275)*365 = 8.30 days
per year

e) Let Y denote the number of days per year with over 10,200 hits to a web site.
Then, Y is a binomial random variable with n = 365 and p = 0.02275.
Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 5th edition 15 January 2010

E(Y) = 8.30 and V(Y) = 365(0.02275)(0.97725) = 8.28

⎛ 15.5 − 8.30 ⎞
P (Y > 15) ≅ P⎜⎜ Z ≥ ⎟⎟ = P ( Z ≥ 2.56) = 1 − P ( Z < 2.56)
⎝ 8.28 ⎠
= 1 − 0.9948 = 0.0052

4-88. Let X denotes the number of random sets that is more dispersed than the opteron. Assume
that X has a true mean = 0.5 x 1000 = 500 sets.
⎛ 750.5 − 1000(0.5) ⎞⎟ ⎛ 750.5 − 500) ⎞
P ( X ≥ 750) = P⎜ Z > = ⎜⎜ Z > ⎟⎟
⎜ 0.5(0.5)1000 ⎠ ⎝⎟ 250 ⎠

= P ( Z > 15.84 ) = 1 − P ( Z ≤ 15.84 ) ≈ 0

4-89. With 10,500 asthma incidents in children in a 21-month period, then mean number of
incidents per month is 10500/21 = 500. Let X denote a Poisson random variable with a
mean of 500 per month. Also, E(X) = λ = 500 = V(X).
a) Using a continuity correction, the following result is obtained.
⎛ 550 + 0.5 − 500 ⎞
P ( X > 550) ≅ P⎜⎜ Z ≥ ⎟⎟ = P ( Z ≥ 2.2584) = 1 − 0.9880 = 0.012
⎝ 500 ⎠

⎛ 550 − 500 ⎞
P ( X > 550) = P ⎜ Z ≥ ⎟ = P ( Z ≥ 2.2361)
⎝ 500 ⎠
= 1 − P ( Z < 2.2361) = 1 − 0.9873 = 0.0127
b) Using a continuity correction, the following result is obtained.
⎛ 450.5 − 500 549.5 − 500 ⎞
P (450 < X < 550) = P(451 ≤ X ≤ 549) = P ⎜ ≤Z≤ ⎟
⎝ 500 500 ⎠
= P( Z ≤ 2.2137) − P( Z ≤ −2.2137) = 0.9866 − 0.0134 = 0.9732

⎛ 550 − 500 ⎞ ⎛ 450 − 500 ⎞


P (450 < X < 550) = P( X < 550) − P( X < 450) = P ⎜ Z ≤ ⎟− P⎜Z ≤ ⎟
⎝ 500 ⎠ ⎝ 500 ⎠
= P ( Z ≤ 2.2361) − P( Z ≤ −2.2361) = 0.9873 − 0.0127 = 0.9746
c) P( X ≤ x) = 0.95
Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 5th edition 15 January 2010

x = Φ −1 (0.95) × 500 + 500 = 536.78


d) The Poisson distribution would not be appropriate because the rate of events should
be constant for a Poisson distribution.

Section 4-8
0
4-90. a) P( X ≤ 0) = ∫ λe − λx dx = 0
0

∞ ∞
b) P ( X ≥ 2) = ∫ 3e −3 x dx = −e −3 x = e −6 = 0.0025
2
2

1 1
c) P( X ≤ 1) = ∫ 3e −3 x dx = −e−3 x = 1 − e−3 = 0.9502
0
0

2 2
d) P (1 < X < 2) = ∫ 3e −3 x dx = −e −3 x = e −3 − e −6 = 0.0473
1
1

x x
e) P( X ≤ x) = ∫ 3e −3t dt = −e −3t = 1 − e−3 x = 0.05 and x = 0.0171
0
0

4-91. If E(X) = 10, then λ = 0.1 .


∞ ∞
a) P( X > 10) = ∫ 0.1e − 0.1x dx = − e − 0.1x = e −1 = 0.3679
10 10


b) P ( X > 20) = − e − 0.1x = e − 2 = 0.1353
20

30
c) P ( X < 30) = −e −0.1x = 1 − e −3 = 0.9502
0

x x
d) P( X < x) = ∫ 0.1e −0.1t dt = −e −0.1t = 1 − e−0.1x = 0.90 and x = 23.03.
0
0

4-92. (a) P( X < 5) = 0.3935


P( X < 15, X > 10) P ( X < 15) − P ( X < 10) 0.1447
(b) P ( X < 15 | X > 10) = = = = 0.3933
P ( X > 10) 1 − P( X < 10) 0.3679
(c) They are the same.
Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 5th edition 15 January 2010

4-93. Let X denote the time until the first count. Then, X is an exponential random variable with
λ = 2 counts per minute.
∞ ∞
a) P( X > 0.5) = ∫ 2e − 2 x dx = − e − 2 x = e −1 = 0.3679
0.5 0.5

1/ 6 1/ 6
b) P( X < 10
60
) = ∫ 2e − 2 x dx = − e − 2 x = 1 − e −1/ 3 = 0.2835
0 0

2
c) P (1 < X < 2) = − e − 2 x = e − 2 − e − 4 = 0.1170
1

4-94. a) E(X) = 1/λ = 1/3 = 0.333 minutes


b) V(X) = 1/λ2 = 1/32 = 0.111, σ = 0.3333
x x
c) P( X < x) = ∫ 3e −3t dt = −e −3t = 1 − e−3 x = 0.95 , x = 0.9986
0
0

1 1
4-95. Let X denote the time until the first call. Then, X is exponential and λ = =
E ( X ) 15
calls/minute.
∞ x x ∞
− −
a) P( X > 30) = ∫
30
1
15
e 15 dx = − e 15

30
= e − 2 = 0.1353

b) The probability of at least one call in a 10-minute interval equals one minus the
probability of zero calls in a 10-minute interval and that is P(X > 10).
− x ∞
P ( X > 10) = − e 15
= e − 2 / 3 = 0.5134 .
10

Therefore, the answer is 1 − 0.5134 = 0.4866. Alternatively, the requested probability is


equal to P(X < 10) = 0.4866.
x 10

c) P (5 < X < 10) = − e 15
= e −1 / 3 − e − 2 / 3 = 0.2031
5

− t x
d) P(X < x) = 0.90 and P ( X < x) = − e 15
= 1 − e − x / 15 = 0.90 . Therefore, x = 34.54
0

minutes.
Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 5th edition 15 January 2010

4-96. Let X be the life of regulator. Then, X is an exponential random variable with
λ = 1/ E ( X ) = 1/ 6
a) Because the Poisson process from which the exponential distribution is derived is
memoryless, this probability is
6 6
P(X < 6) = ∫
0
1
6
e − x / 6 dx = − e − x / 6
0
= 1 − e −1 = 0.6321

b) Because the failure times are memoryless, the mean time until the next failure is E(X) =
6 years.

4-97. Let X denote the time to failure (in hours) of fans in a personal computer. Then, X is an
exponential random variable and λ = 1/ E ( X ) = 0.0004 .
∞ ∞


− x 0.0004 − x 0.0004
a) P(X > 10,000) = 0.0004e dx = −e = e −4 = 0.0183
10,000 10,000

7,000 7,000


− x 0.0004 − x 0.0004
b) P(X < 7,000) = 0.0004e dx = −e = 1 − e −2.8 = 0.9392
0 0

4-98. Let X denote the time until a message is received. Then, X is an exponential random
variable and λ = 1/ E ( X ) = 1/ 2 .
∞ ∞
a) P(X > 2) = ∫
2
1
2 e − x / 2 dx = −e − x / 2
2
= e −1 = 0.3679

b) The same as part a.


c) E(X) = 2 hours.

4-99. Let X denote the time until the arrival of a taxi. Then, X is an exponential random variable
with λ = 1/ E ( X ) = 0.1 arrivals/ minute.
∞ ∞

∫ 0.1e dx = − e
− 0.1 x − 0.1 x
a) P(X > 60) = = e − 6 = 0.0025
60 60
Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 5th edition 15 January 2010

10 10
b) P(X < 10) = ∫ 0.1e − 0.1x dx = − e − 0.1x = 1 − e −1 = 0.6321
0 0

∞ ∞
c) P(X > x) = ∫ 0.1e −0.1t dt = −e−0.1t = e−0.1x = 0.15 and x = 18.97 minutes.
x
x

d) P(X < x) = 0.9 implies that P(X > x) = 0.1. Therefore, this answer is the same as part c).
x
e) P(X < x) = −e −0.1t = 1 − e −0.1x = 0.5 and x = 6.93 minutes.
0

4-100. (a) 1/2.5 = 0.4 per year


(b) λ = 2.5 × 0.25 = 0.625
P(X=0) = 0.5353
(c)Let T denote the time between sightings
T ∼ EXP(0.4)
P ( X > 0.5) = 1 − P( X ≤ 0.5) = 0.2865
(d) λ = 2.5 × 3 = 7.5
P(X=0) = 0.000553

4-101. Let X denote the number of insect fragments per gram. Then
X ∼ POI (14.4 / 225)
a) 225/14.4 = 15.625
14.4×28.35
e− λ λ 0 −
b) P ( X = 0) = =e 225
= 0.1629
0!
c) (0.1629)7 = 3 × 10−6

4-102. Let X denote the distance between major cracks. Then, X is an exponential random
variable with λ = 1/ E ( X ) = 0.1 cracks/km.
∞ ∞

∫ 0.1e dx = −e
−0.1 x −0.1 x
a) P(X > 20) = = e−2 = 0.1353
20
20
Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 5th edition 15 January 2010

b) Let Y denote the number of cracks in 20 km of highway. Because the distance between
cracks is exponential, Y is a Poisson random variable with λ = 20(0.1) = 2 cracks per 20
km.
e −2 22
P(Y = 2) = = 0.2707
2!
c) σ X = 1/ λ = 0.5
30 30
d) P (24 < X < 30) = ∫ 0.1e −0.1x dx = −e −0.1x = e −2.4 − e −3 = 0.0409
24
24


e) P(X > 10) = −e −0.1x = e −1 = 0.3679 . By independence of the intervals in a Poisson
10

process, the answer is 0.36792 = 0.1353 . Alternatively, the answer is P(X > 20) =
e−2 = 0.1353 . The probability does depend on whether or not the lengths of highway are
consecutive.
f) By the memoryless property, this answer is P(X > 20) = 0.1353 from part e).

4-103. Let X denote the lifetime of an assembly. Then, X is an exponential random variable with
λ = 1/ E ( X ) = 1/ 400 failures per hour.
100 100
a) P(X < 100) = ∫
0
1
400 e − x / 400 dx = −e − x / 400
0
= 1 − e−0.25 = 0.2212


b) P(X > 500) = −e − x / 400 = e −5 / 4 = 0.2865
500

c) From the memoryless property of the exponential, this answer is the same as part a),
P(X < 100) = 0.2212.
d) Let U denote the number of assemblies out of 10 that fail before 100 hours. By the
memoryless property of a Poisson process, U has a binomial distribution with n = 10 and
p =0.2212 (from part (a)). Then,
P (U ≥ 1) = 1 − P (U = 0) = 1 − ( 10
0 ) 0.2212 (1 − 0.2212) = 0.9179
0 10

e) Let V denote the number of assemblies out of 10 that fail before 800 hours. Then, V is
a binomial random variable with n = 10 and p = P(X < 800), where X denotes the lifetime
of an assembly.
Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 5th edition 15 January 2010

800 800
Now, P(X < 800) = ∫
0
1
400
e − x / 400 dx = −e − x / 400
0
= 1 − e − 2 = 0.8647 .

Therefore, P(V = 10) = ( ) 0.8647


10
10
10
(1 − 0.8647)0 = 0.2337 .

4-104. Let Y denote the number of arrivals in one hour. If the time between arrivals is
exponential, then the count of arrivals is a Poisson random variable and λ = 1 arrival per
hour.

a) P(Y > 3) = 1 − P (Y ≤ 3) = 1 − ⎡⎢ e 1 + e 1 + e 1 + e 1 ⎤⎥ = 0.01899


−1 0 −1 1 −1 2 −1 3

⎣ 0! 1! 2! 3! ⎦
b) From part a), P(Y > 3) = 0.01899. Let W denote the number of one-hour intervals out
of 30 that contain more than 3 arrivals. By the memoryless property of a Poisson process,
W is a binomial random variable with n = 30 and p = 0.01899.
P(W = 0) = ( )0.01899
30
0
0
(1 − 0.01899) 30 = 0.5626

c) Let X denote the time between arrivals. Then, X is an exponential random variable with
∞ ∞
λ = 1 arrivals per hour. P(X > x) = 0.1 and P( X > x) = ∫ 1e −1t dt =− e −1t = e −1x = 0.1 .
x x

Therefore, x = 2.3 hours.

4-105. Let X denote the number of calls in 30 minutes. Because the time between calls is an
exponential random variable, X is a Poisson random variable with λ = 1/ E ( X ) = 0.1 calls
per minute = 3 calls per 30 minutes.
⎡ e−3 30 e−3 31 e−3 32 e−3 33 ⎤
a) P(X > 3) = 1 − P( X ≤ 3) = 1 − ⎢ + + + ⎥ = 0.3528
⎣ 0! 1! 2! 3! ⎦

e−3 30
b) P(X = 0) = = 0.04979
0!
c) Let Y denote the time between calls in minutes. Then, P(Y ≥ x) = 0.02 and
∞ ∞
P(Y ≥ x) = ∫ 0.1e − 0.1t dt = −e − 0.1t = e − 0.1x . Therefore, e−0.1x = 0.02 and x = 39.12
x x

minutes.
Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 5th edition 15 January 2010

∞ ∞

∫ 0.1e
− 0.1 y
. d) P(Y > 120) = dy = −e − 0.1 y = e −12 = 6.14 × 10− 6 .
120 120

e) Because the calls are a Poisson process, the numbers of calls in disjoint intervals are
independent. From Exercise 4-90 part b), the probability of no calls in one-half hour is

[ ] 4
e −3 = 0.04979 . Therefore, the answer is e −3 = e−12 = 6.14 × 10− 6 . Alternatively, the
answer is the probability of no calls in two hours. From part d) of this exercise, this is e−12.
f) Because a Poisson process is memoryless, probabilities do not depend on whether or not
intervals are consecutive. Therefore, parts d) and e) have the same answer.

4-106. X is an exponential random variable with λ = 0.2 flaws per meter.


a) E(X) = 1/ λ = 5 meters.
∞ ∞
b) P(X > 10) = ∫ 0.2e − 0.2 x dx = −e − 0.2 x = e − 2 = 0.1353
10 10

c) No, see Exercise 4-91 part f).


x
d) P(X < x) = 0.90. Then, P(X < x) = −e −0.2t = 1 − e −0.2 x .
0

Therefore, 1 − e −0.2 x = 0.9 and x = 11.51.



P(X > 8) = ∫ 0.2e − 0.2 x dx = −e −8 / 5 = 0.2019
8

The distance between successive flaws is either less than 8 meters or not. The distances
are independent and P(X > 8) = 0.2019. Let Y denote the number of flaws until the
distance exceeds 8 meters. Then, Y is a geometric random variable with p = 0.2019.
e) P(Y = 5) = (1 − 0.2019) 4 0.2019 = 0.0819 .
f) E(Y) = 1/0.2019 = 4.95.
∞ ∞
4-107. a) P( X > θ ) = ∫
θ
1 −x /θ
θ
e dx = −e − x / θ
θ
= e −1 = 0.3679


b) P ( X > 2θ ) = −e − x / θ = e − 2 = 0.1353


c) P ( X > 3θ ) = −e − x / θ = e − 3 = 0.0498

Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 5th edition 15 January 2010

d) The results do not depend on θ.


4-108. E ( X ) = ∫ xλe − λx dx. Use integration by parts with u = x and dv = λe − λx .
0


∞ − e − λx ∞
Then, E ( X ) = − xe − λx
+ ∫ e −λx dx = = 1/ λ
0 0
λ 0

∞ 2
⎛ 1⎞
V(X) = ∫ ( x − ) λe 1 2
λ
− λx
dx. Use integration by parts with u = ⎜ x − ⎟ and
0 ⎝ λ⎠

dv = λ e − λ x . Then,
2 ∞ 2 ∞
⎛ 1⎞ ∞
⎛ 1⎞ ⎛1⎞ 2 ⎛ 1⎞
V ( X ) = − ⎜ x − ⎟ e− λ x + 2∫ ⎜ x − ⎟ e − λ x dx = ⎜ ⎟ + ∫ ⎜ x − ⎟ λ e− λ x dx
⎝ λ⎠ 0
0⎝
λ⎠ ⎝λ ⎠ λ 0⎝ λ⎠
2
⎛1⎞
The last integral is seen to be zero from the definition of E(X). Therefore, V(X) = ⎜ ⎟ .
⎝λ⎠

4-109. X is an exponential random variable with µ = 3.5 days.


2
1
∫ 3.5e
− x / 3.5
a) P(X < 2) = dx = 1 − e − 2 / 3.5 = 0.435
0


1 − x / 3.5
b) P( X > 7) = ∫ e dx = e −7 / 3.5 = 0.135
7
3.5

c) P( X > x) = 0.9 and P( X > x) = e − x / 3.5 = 0.9

Therefore, x = –3.5ln(0.9) = 0.369

d) From the lack of memory property P(X < 10 | X > 3) = P(X < 7) and from part (b) this
equals
1 – 0.135 = 0.865

1
4-110. a) µ = E ( X ) = = 4.6 , then λ = 0.2174
λ
1
σ= = 4.6
λ
Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 5th edition 15 January 2010


1
∫ 4.6 e
− x / 4.6
b) P( X > 10) = dx = e −10 / 4.6 = 0.1137
10


1 −u / 4.6
c) P( X > x) = ∫ e du = e − x / 4.6 = 0.25
x
4.6

Then, x = −4.6ln(0.25) = 6.38

Section 4-9

4-111. a) Γ (7) = 6! = 720

⎛ 5 ⎞ 3 ⎛ 3 ⎞ 3 1 ⎛ 1 ⎞ 3 1/ 2
b) Γ ⎜ ⎟ = Γ ⎜ ⎟ = Γ ⎜ ⎟ = π = 1.32934
⎝2⎠ 2 ⎝2⎠ 2 2 ⎝2⎠ 4

⎛ 9 ⎞ 7 ⎛ 7 ⎞ 7 5 3 1 ⎛ 1 ⎞ 105 1/ 2
c) Γ ⎜ ⎟ = Γ ⎜ ⎟ = Γ⎜ ⎟ = π = 11.6317
⎝ 2 ⎠ 2 ⎝ 2 ⎠ 2 2 2 2 ⎝ 2 ⎠ 16

4-112. X is a gamma random variable with the parameters λ = 0.01 and r = 3 .


The mean is E ( X ) = r / λ = 300 .

The variance is Var ( X ) = r / λ 2 = 30000 .

4-113. a) The time until the tenth call is an Erlang random variable with λ = 5 calls per minute
and r = 10.
b) E(X) = 10/5 = 2 minutes. V(X) = 10/25 = 0.4 minutes.
c) Because a Poisson process is memoryless, the mean time is 1/5 = 0.2 minutes or 12
seconds
Let Y denote the number of calls in one minute. Then, Y is a Poisson random variable
with 5 calls per minute.
e −5 54
d) P(Y = 4) = = 0.1755
4!
e −5 50 e −5 51 e −5 52
e) P(Y > 2) = 1 - P(Y ≤ 2) = 1 − − − = 0.8754
0! 1! 2!
Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 5th edition 15 January 2010

Let W denote the number of one minute intervals out of 10 that contain more than 2 calls.
Because the calls are a Poisson process, W is a binomial random variable with n = 10 and
p = 0.8754.
Therefore, P(W = 10) = ( )0.8754
10
10
10
(1 − 0.8754) 0 = 0.2643

4-114. Let X denote the kilograms of material to obtain 15 particles. Then, X has an Erlang
distribution with r = 15 and λ = 0.02 .
r 15
a) E(X) = = = 750
λ 0.02
15
b) V(X) = = 37500 and σ X = 37500 = 193.65 kg
0.022

4-115. Let X denote the time between failures of a laser. X is exponential with a mean of 25,000.
a.) Expected time until the second failure E ( X ) = r / λ = 2 / 0.00004 = 50, 000 hours
b.) N = no of failures in 50000 hours
50000
E(N ) = =2
25000
2
e −2 (2) k
P( N ≤ 2) = ∑ = 0.6767
k =0 k!

4-116. Let X denote the time until 5 messages arrive at a node. Then, X has an Erlang distribution
with r = 5 and λ = 30 messages per minute.
a) E(X) = 5/30 = 1/6 minute = 10 seconds.
5
b)V(X) = = 1/180 minute2 = 1/3 second and σ X = 0.0745 minute = 4.472 seconds.
302
c) Let Y denote the number of messages that arrive in 10 seconds. Then, Y is a Poisson
random variable with λ = 30 messages per minute = 5 messages per 10 seconds.
⎡ e −5 50 e −5 51 e −5 52 e−5 53 e −5 54 ⎤
P(Y ≥ 5) = 1 − P(Y ≤ 4) = 1 − ⎢ + + + + ⎥
⎣ 0! 1! 2! 3! 4! ⎦
= 0.5595
Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 5th edition 15 January 2010

d) Let Y denote the number of messages that arrive in 5 seconds. Then, Y is a Poisson
random variable with λ = 2.5 messages per 5 seconds.
P(Y ≥ 5) = 1 − P(Y ≤ 4) = 1 − 0.8912 = 0.1088

4-117. Let X denote the number of bits until five errors occur. Then, X has an Erlang distribution
with r = 5 and λ = 10−5 error per bit.
r
a) E(X) = = 5 × 105 bits.
λ
r
b) V(X) = = 5 × 1010 and σ X = 5 × 1010 = 223607 bits.
λ2
c) Let Y denote the number of errors in 105 bits. Then, Y is a Poisson random variable
with λ = 1/105 = 10−5 error per bit = 1 error per 105 bits.
⎡ e−110 e−111 e−112 ⎤
P(Y ≥ 3) = 1 − P(Y ≤ 2) = 1 − ⎢ + + ⎥ = 0.0803
⎣ 0! 1! 2! ⎦

4-118. λ = 20 r = 100
a) E ( X ) = r / λ = 100 / 20 = 5 minutes
b) 4 min − 3 min = 1 min
c) Let Y be the number of calls before 15 seconds λ = 0.25 * 20 = 5
⎡ e−5 50 e−5 51 e−5 52 ⎤
P(Y ≥ 3) = 1 − P( X ≤ 2) = 1 − ⎢ + + ⎥ = 1 − .1247 = 0.8753
⎣ 0! 1! 2! ⎦

4-119. a) Let X denote the number of customers that arrive in 10 minutes. Then, X is a
Poisson random variable with λ = 0.2 arrivals per minute = 2 arrivals per 10 minutes.
⎡ e−2 20 e−2 21 e−2 22 e−2 23 ⎤
P( X > 3) = 1 − P( X ≤ 3) = 1 − ⎢ + + + ⎥ = 0.1429
⎣ 0! 1! 2! 3! ⎦

b) Let Y denote the number of customers that arrive in 15 minutes. Then, Y is a Poisson
random variable with λ = 3 arrivals per 15 minutes.
⎡ e −3 30 e −3 31 e −3 32 e −3 33 e−3 34 ⎤
P(Y ≥ 5) = 1 − P(Y ≤ 4) = 1 − ⎢ + + + + = 0.1847
⎣ 0! 1! 2! 3! 4! ⎥⎦
Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 5th edition 15 January 2010


4-120. Γ(r ) = ∫ x r −1e − x dx . Use integration by parts with u = x r −1 and dv = e−x. Then,
0

∞ ∞
Γ(r ) = − x r −1e − x + (r − 1) ∫ x r − 2e − x dx = (r − 1)Γ(r − 1) .
0 0

∞ ∞ ∞
λr x r −1e − λx λ y r −1e− y dy
4-121. ∫
0
f ( x; λ , r )dx = ∫
0 Γ( r )
dx . Let y = λ x , then the integral is ∫0 Γ(r ) λ . From the
definition of Γ(r ) , this integral is recognized to equal 1.

4-122. If X is a chi-square random variable, then X is a special case of a gamma random variable.
r ( 7 / 2) r ( 7 / 2)
Now, E(X) = = = 7 and V ( X ) = 2 = = 14 .
λ (1 / 2) λ (1 / 2) 2
4-123. Let X denote the number of patients arrive at the emergency department. Then, X has a
Poisson distribution with λ = 6.5 patients per hour.
a) E ( X ) = r / λ = 10 / 6.5 = 1.539 hour.
b) Let Y denote the number of patients that arrive in 20 minutes. Then, Y is a Poisson
random variable with λ = 6.5 / 3 = 2.1667 arrivals per 20 minutes. The event that the third
arrival exceeds 20 minutes is equivalent to the event that there are two or fewer arrivals in
20 minutes. Therefore,
⎡ e−2.1667 2.16670 e −2.1667 2.16671 e −2.1667 2.1667 2 ⎤
P (Y ≤ 2) = ⎢ + + ⎥ = 0.6317
⎣ 0! 1! 2! ⎦
The solution may also be obtained from the result that the time until the third arrival
follows a gamma distribution with r = 3 and λ = 6.5 arrivals per hour. The probability is
obtained by integrating the probability density function from 20 minutes to infinity.

4-124. a) E ( X ) = r / λ = 18 , then r = 18λ

Var ( X ) = r / λ2 = 18 / λ = 36 , then λ = 0.5


Therefore, the parameters are λ = 0.5 and r = 18λ = 18(0.5) = 9
b) The distribution of each step is exponential with λ = 0.5 and 9 steps produce this
gamma distribution.
Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 5th edition 15 January 2010

Section 4-10

4-125. β = 0.2 and δ = 100 hours


E ( X ) = 100Γ(1 + 0.2
1
) = 100 × 5! = 12, 000
V ( X ) = 1002 Γ(1 + 0.2
2
) − 1002 [Γ (1 + 0.2
1
)]2 = 3.61× 1010

0.3
4-126. a) P( X < 10000) = FX (10000) = 1 − e− (100 )
= 1 − e−3.981 = 0.9813
0.3
b) P( X > 5000) = 1 − FX (5000) = e− (50 )
= 0.0394

4-127. If X is a Weibull random variable with β = 1 and δ = 1000, the distribution of X is the
exponential distribution with λ = .001.
1
0 ⎛ x ⎞
⎛ 1 ⎞⎛ x ⎞ −⎜⎝ 1000 ⎟⎠
f ( x) = ⎜ ⎟⎜ ⎟ e for x > 0
⎝ 1000 ⎠⎝ 1000 ⎠
= 0.001e − 0.001x for x > 0
The mean of X is E(X) = 1/λ = 1000.

4-128. Let X denote lifetime of a bearing. β = 3 and δ = 10000 hours


⎛ 8000 ⎞ 3
−⎜ ⎟ 3
a) P ( X > 8000) = 1 − FX (8000) = e ⎝ 10000 ⎠
= e − (0.8 ) = 0.5993

b) E ( X ) = 10000Γ (1 + 13 ) = 10000Γ(1.33)

= 10000(0.33)Γ(0.33) = 3300(2.707) = 8933.1


= 8933.1 hours
c) Let Y denote the number of bearings out of 10 that last at least 8000 hours. Then, Y is
a binomial random variable with n = 10 and p = 0.5273.
P (Y = 10) = ( )0.5273
10
10
10
(1 − 0.5273) 0 = 0.00166 .
Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 5th edition 15 January 2010

⎛ 1⎞
4-129. a) E ( X ) = δ Γ ⎜1 + ⎟ = 900Γ(1 + 1/ 5) = 900Γ(6 / 5) = 900(0.91817). = 826.35 hours
⎝ β⎠
2 2
⎛ 2⎞ ⎡ ⎛ 2 ⎞⎤ ⎛ 2⎞ ⎡ ⎛ 1 ⎞⎤
b) V ( X ) = δ Γ ⎜1 + ⎟ − δ 2 ⎢Γ ⎜ 1 + ⎟ ⎥ = 9002 Γ ⎜1 + ⎟ − 9002 ⎢Γ ⎜ 1 + ⎟ ⎥
2

⎝ β⎠ ⎣ ⎝ β ⎠⎦ ⎝ 5⎠ ⎣ ⎝ 5 ⎠⎦

= 9002 (0.88726) − 9002 (0.91817) 2 = 35821.32 hours 2


5
⎛ 500 ⎞
−⎜ ⎟
c) P ( X < 500) = FX (500) = 1 − e ⎝ 900 ⎠
= 0.0515

4-130. Let X denote the lifetime.


⎛ 1 ⎞
a) E ( X ) = δ Γ ⎜1 + ⎟ = δ Γ(3) = 2δ = 600. Then δ = 300 . Now,
⎝ 0.5 ⎠
0.5
⎛ 500 ⎞
−⎜ ⎟
P(X > 500) = e ⎝ 300 ⎠
= 0.2750
0.5
⎛ 400 ⎞
−⎜ ⎟
b) P(X < 400) = 1 − e ⎝ 300 ⎠
= 0.6848

4-131. a) β = 2, δ = 500
⎛ 1⎞
E ( X ) = 500Γ ⎜1 + ⎟ = 500Γ(1.5)
⎝ 2⎠
= 500(0.5)Γ(0.5) = 250 π = 443.11
= 443.11 hours
2
⎡ ⎛ 1 ⎞⎤
b) V ( X ) = 500 Γ(1 + 1) − 500 ⎢Γ ⎜ 1 + ⎟ ⎥
2 2

⎣ ⎝ 2 ⎠⎦
= 500 2 Γ(2) − 500 2 [Γ(1.5)] 2 = 53650.5
2
⎛ 250 ⎞
−⎜ ⎟
c) P(X < 250) = F(250) = 1 − e ⎝ 500 ⎠
= 1 − 0.7788 = 0.2212

⎛ 1⎞
4-132. E ( X ) = δ Γ ⎜1 + ⎟ = 2.5
⎝ 2⎠
2.5 5
So δ = =
⎛ 1⎞ π
Γ ⎜1 + ⎟
⎝ 2⎠
Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 5th edition 15 January 2010

25
Var ( X ) = δ 2 Γ(2) − ( EX ) 2 = − 2.52 = 1.7077
π
Stdev(X)= 1.3068

⎛ 2⎞
4-133. δ 2 Γ ⎜1 + ⎟ = Var ( X ) + ( EX ) 2 = 10.3 + 4.92 = 34.31
⎝ β⎠
1
δ Γ(1 + ) = E ( X ) = 10.3
β
Requires a numerical solution to these two equations.

2
4-134. a) P( X < 10) = FX (10) = 1 − e − (10 / 8.6 ) = 1 − e −1.3521 = 0.7413
2
b) P( X > 10) = 1 − FX (10) = e− (10 /8.6) = 0.2587
c)
2 2
P(8 < X < 11) = FX (11) − FX (8) = (1 − e − (11 / 8.6) ) − (1 − e − (8 / 8.6) ) = 0.8052 − 0.5791 = 0.2261

2
d) P( X > x ) = 1 − FX ( x ) = e − ( x / 8.6 ) = 0.9

Therefore, − ( x / 8.6) 2 = ln(0.9) = −0.1054 , and x = 2.7920

2.5
4-135. a) P( X > 3000) = 1 − FX (3000) = e− (3000 / 4000) = 0.6144
P( X > 6000, X > 3000) P( X > 6000)
b) P( X > 6000 | X > 3000) = =
P( X > 3000) P( X > 3000)
2.5
1 − FX (6000) e− (6000 / 4000) 0.0636
= = − (3000 / 4000)2.5 = = 0.1035
1 − FX (3000) e 0.6144

c) If it is an exponential distribution, then β = 1 and

1 − FX (6000) e− (6000 / 4000) 0.2231


= = = = 0.4724
1 − FX (3000) e− (3000 / 4000) 0.4724

For the Weibull distribution (with β = 2.5) there is no lack of memory property so that the
answers to parts (a) and (b) differ whereas they would be the same if an exponential
distribution were assumed. From part (b), the probability of survival beyond 6000 hours,
Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 5th edition 15 January 2010

given the device has already survived 3000 hours, is lower than the probability of
survival beyond 3000 hours from the start time.

0.5
4-136. a) P( X > 3500) = 1 − FX (3500) = e− (3500 / 4000) = 0.4206
P( X > 6000, X > 3000) P( X > 6000)
b) P( X > 6000 | X > 3000) = =
P( X > 3000) P( X > 3000)
0.5
1 − FX (6000) e− (6000 / 4000) 0.2938
= = − (3000 / 4000)0.5 = = 0.6986
1 − FX (3000) e 0.4206
P( X > 6000, X > 3000) P( X > 6000)
c) P( X > 6000 | X > 3000) = =
P( X > 3000) P( X > 3000)
If it is an exponential distribution, then β = 1
1 − FX (6000) e − ( 6000 / 4000) 0.2231
= = = = 0.4724
1 − FX (3000) e −( 3000 / 4000) 0.4724

For the Weibull distribution (with β = 0.5) there is no lack of memory property so that the
answers to parts (a) and (b) differ whereas they would be the same if an exponential
distribution were assumed. From part (b), the probability of survival beyond 6000 hours,
given the device has already survived 3000 hours, is greater than the probability of
survival beyond 3000 hours from the start time.

d) The failure rate can be increased or decreased relative to the exponential distribution
with the shape parameter β in the Weibull distribution.

3
4-137. a) P( X > 3500) = 1 − FX (3500) = e− (3500 / 2000) = 0.0047
b) The mean of this Weibull distribution is (2000) 0.33(2.707) = 1786.62
If it is an exponential distribution with this mean then
P( X > 3500) = 1 − FX (3500) = e− (3500 /1786.62) = 0.1410
c) The probability that the lifetime exceeds 3500 hours is greater under the exponential
distribution than under this Weibull distribution model.
Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 5th edition 15 January 2010

Section 4-11

4-138. X is a lognormal distribution with θ = 5 and ω2 = 9


⎛ ln(13330) − 5 ⎞
a) P ( X < 13300) = P (eW < 13300) = P(W < ln(13300)) = Φ ⎜ ⎟
⎝ 3 ⎠
= Φ(1.50) = 0.9332
b) Find the value for which P(X ≤ x) = 0.90
⎛ ln( x) − 5 ⎞
P ( X ≤ x) = P (eW ≤ x) = P (W < ln( x)) = Φ ⎜ ⎟ = 0.90
⎝ 3 ⎠
ln( x) − 5
= 1.28 x = e1.28(3) + 5 = 6904.99
3
2
c) µ = E ( X ) = eθ +ω /2
= e5+9 / 2 = e9.5 = 13359.7
2 2
V ( X ) = e2θ + ω (eω − 1) = e10+9 (e9 − 1) = e19 (e9 − 1) = 1.45 × 1012

4-139. a) X is a lognormal distribution with θ = −2 and ω2 = 9


P(500 < X < 1000) = P (500 < eW < 1000) = P (ln(500) < W < ln(1000))
⎛ ln(1000) + 2 ⎞ ⎛ ln(500) + 2 ⎞
= Φ⎜ ⎟ − Φ⎜ ⎟ = Φ (2.97) − Φ (2.74) = 0.0016
⎝ 3 ⎠ ⎝ 3 ⎠
⎛ ln( x) + 2 ⎞
b) P ( X < x) = P (eW ≤ x ) = P (W < ln( x )) = Φ⎜ ⎟ = 0. 1
⎝ 3 ⎠
ln( x) + 2
= −1.28 x = e −1.28 ( 3 ) − 2 = 0 .0029
3
2
c) µ = E ( X ) = e
θ+ω /2
= e −2 + 9 / 2 = e 2.5 = 12.1825
2 2
V ( X ) = e 2θ + ω ( e ω − 1) = e −4 + 9 ( e 9 − 1) = e 5 ( e 9 − 1) = 1, 202, 455.87

4-140. a) X is a lognormal distribution with θ = 3 and ω2 = 4


⎛ ln(500) − 3 ⎞
P ( X < 500) = P(eW < 500) = P (W < ln(500)) = Φ ⎜ ⎟
⎝ 2 ⎠
= Φ (1.61) = 0.9463
Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 5th edition 15 January 2010

P(1000 < X < 1500)


b) P ( X < 15000 | X > 1000) =
P( X > 1000)

⎡ ⎛ ln(1500) − 3 ⎞ ⎛ ln(1000) − 3 ⎞ ⎤
⎢Φ ⎜ ⎟ −Φ⎜ ⎟⎥
⎣ ⎝ 2 ⎠ ⎝ 2 ⎠⎦
=
⎡ ⎛ ln(1000) − 3 ⎞ ⎤
⎢1 − Φ ⎜ ⎟⎥
⎣ ⎝ 2 ⎠⎦
Φ (2.16) − Φ (1.95) 0.9846 − 0.9744 0.0102
= = = = 0.3984
1 − Φ (1.95) 1 − 0.9744 0.0256
c) The product has degraded over the first 1000 hours, so the probability of it lasting
another 500 hours is very low.

4-141. X is a lognormal distribution with θ = 0.5 and ω2 = 1


⎛ ln(10) − 0.5 ⎞
a) P ( X > 10) = P (eW > 10) = P(W > ln(10)) = 1 − Φ ⎜ ⎟
⎝ 1 ⎠
= 1 − Φ (1.80) = 1 − 0.96407 = 0.03593

⎛ ln( x) − 0.5 ⎞
b) P( X ≤ x) = P (e W ≤ x) = P (W < ln( x)) = Φ⎜ ⎟ = 0.50
⎝ 1 ⎠
ln( x) − 0.5
= 0 x = e 0 (1 ) + 0 .5 = 1 .6 5 seconds
1
2
c) µ = E ( X ) = e
θ+ω /2
= e 0.5 +1/ 2 = e1 = 2.7183
2 2
V ( X ) = e 2 θ + ω ( e ω − 1) = e 1 + 1 ( e 1 − 1) = e 2 ( e 1 − 1) = 12.6 965

4-142. Find the values of θ and ω2 given that E(X) = 100 and V(X) = 85,000
2 2 2
100 = eθ + ω /2
85000 = e2θ + ω (eω − 1)
2
let x = eθ and y = eω then (1) 100 = x y and (2) 85000 = x2 y( y −1) = x2 y2 − x2 y

Square (1) 10000 = x 2 y and substitute into (2)


85000 = 10000( y − 1)
y = 9.5
100
Substitute y into (1) and solve for x x = = 32.444
9. 5
Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 5th edition 15 January 2010

θ = ln(32.444) = 3.48 and ω2 = ln(9.5) = 2.25

4-143. a) Find the values of θ and ω2 given that E(X) = 10000 and σ = 20,000
2 2 2
10000 = eθ + ω /2
200002 = e2θ + ω (eω − 1)
2
let x = eθ and y = eω then (1) 10000 = x y and

(2) 200002 = x2 y( y −1) = x2 y2 − x2 y

Square (1) 100002 = x 2 y and substitute into (2)

20000 2 = 10000 2 ( y − 1)
y=5
10000
Substitute y into (1) and solve for x x = = 4472.1360
5

θ = ln(4472.1360) = 8.4056 and ω2 = ln(5) = 1.6094

⎛ ln(10000) − 8.4056 ⎞
b) P ( X > 10000) = P (eW > 10000) = P (W > ln(10000)) = 1 − Φ ⎜ ⎟
⎝ 1.2686 ⎠
= 1 − Φ(0.63) = 1 − 0.7357 = 0.2643

⎛ ln( x) − 8.4056 ⎞
c) P ( X > x) = P (e W > x) = P(W > ln( x)) = Φ⎜ ⎟ = 0.1
⎝ 1.2686 ⎠
ln( x) − 8.4056
= −1.28 x = e −1.280(1.2686) +8.4056 = 881.65 hours
1.2686

4-144. E ( X ) = exp(θ + ω2 / 2) = 120.87

exp(ω2 ) − 1 = 0.09
So
ω = ln1.0081 = 0.0898 and
θ = ln120.87 − ω2 / 2 = 4.791
Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 5th edition 15 January 2010

4-145. Let X ~N(µ, σ2), then Y = eX follows a lognormal distribution with mean µ and variance
σ2. By definition, FY(y) = P(Y ≤ y) = P(eX < y) = P(X < log y) = FX(log y) =
⎛ log y − µ ⎞
Φ⎜ ⎟.
⎝ σ ⎠
1
Since Y = eX and X ~ N(µ, σ2), we can show that fY (Y ) = f X (log y )
y
2
⎛ log y − µ ⎞
∂F ( y ) ∂FX (log y ) 1 1 1 −⎜
2σ ⎠

Finally, fY(y) = Y = = f X (log y ) = ⋅ e⎝ .
∂y ∂y y y σ 2π
4-146. X has a lognormal distribution with θ = 10 and ω2 = 25
⎛ ln(2000) − 10 ⎞
a) P( X < 2000) = P (eW < 2000) = P(W < ln(2000)) = Φ ⎜ ⎟
⎝ 5 ⎠
= Φ (−0.4798) = 0.3157

⎛ ln(1500) − 10 ⎞
b) P ( X > 1500) = 1 − P(eW < 1500) = 1 − P (W < ln(1500)) = Φ ⎜ ⎟
⎝ 5 ⎠
= 1 − Φ (−0.5374) = 1 − 0.2955 = 0.7045

⎛ ln( x) − 10 ⎞
c) P( X > x) = P (eW > x) = P (W > ln( x)) = 1 − Φ ⎜ ⎟ = 0.7
⎝ 5 ⎠
ln( x ) − 10
−0.5244 =
5

Therefore, x = 1600.39

4-147. X has a lognormal distribution with θ = 1.5 and ω = 0.3


2
a) µ = E ( X ) = eθ +(ω / 2)
= e1.5+ (0.09 / 2) = e1.55 = 4.7115
2 2
V ( X ) = e2θ + ω (eω − 1) = e3+0.09 (e0.09 − 1) = 2.0697

⎛ ln(8) − 1.5 ⎞
b) P( X < 8) = P (eW < 8) = P (W < ln(8)) = Φ ⎜ ⎟ = Φ (1.9315) = 0.9733
⎝ 0.3 ⎠
c) P( X < 0) = 0 for the lognormal distribution. If the distribution is normal, then

⎛ 0 − 4.7115 ⎞
P( X < 0) = P ⎜ Z < ⎟ = 0.0005
⎝ 2.0697 ⎠
Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 5th edition 15 January 2010

Because waiting times cannot be negative the normal distribution generates some
modeling error.

Section 4-12
4-148. The probability density is symmetric.

Γ(α + β ) α −1
0.25
4-149. a) P( X < 0.25) = ∫
0
Γ(α )Γ( β )
)x (1 − x) β −1

0.25
( 2.5)(1.5)( 0.5) π x 2.5
0.25
Γ(3.5)
= ∫
0
Γ( 2.5) Γ(1)
)x 1.5 =
(1.5)( 0.5) π 2. 5
= 0.252.5 = 0.0313
0

Γ(α + β ) α −1
0.75
b) P (0.25 < X < 0.75) = ∫
0.25
Γ(α )Γ( β )
)x (1 − x) β −1

0.75
( 2.5)(1.5)(0.5) π x 2.5
0.75
Γ(3.5)
= ∫ )x 1.5 = = 0.752.5 − 0.252.5 = 0.4559
0.25
Γ( 2.5) Γ(1) (1.5)(0.5) π 2. 5 0.25

α 2.5
c) µ = E ( X ) = = = 0.7143
α+β 2.5 + 1
αβ 2.5
σ 2 = V (X ) = = = 0.0454
(α + β ) (α + β + 1) (3.5)2 (4.5)
2

Γ(α + β ) α −1
0.25
4-150. a) P( X < 0.25) = ∫
0
Γ(α )Γ( β )
)x (1 − x) β −1

0.25 0.25
Γ(5.2) (4.2)(3.2)(2.2)(1.2)Γ(1.2) ( −1)(1 − x ) 4.2
= ∫
0
Γ(1)Γ(4.2)
)(1 −x)3.2 =
(3.2)(2.2)(1.2)Γ(1.2) 4.2
= −(0.75) 4.2 + 1 = 0.7013
0

Γ(α + β )
1

∫ Γ(α )Γ(β ) )x
α −1
b) P (0.5 < X ) = (1 − x) β −1
0.5
Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 5th edition 15 January 2010

1 1
Γ(5.2) (4.2)(3.2)(2.2)(1.2)Γ(1.2) (−1)(1 − x) 4.2
= ∫ )(1 −x) 3.2 = = 0 + (0.5) 4.2 = 0.0544
0.5
Γ(1)Γ(4.2) (3.2)(2.2)(1.2)Γ(1.2) 4.2 0.5

α 1
c) µ = E ( X ) = = = 0.1923
α+β 1 + 4.2
αβ 4.2
σ 2 = V(X ) = = = 0.0251
(α + β ) (α + β + 1) (5.2) 2 (6.2)
2

α −1 2
4-151. a) Mode = = = 0.8
α + β − 2 3 + 1.5 − 2
α 3
µ = E( X ) = = = 0.6667
α +β 3 + 1.5
αβ 4.5
σ 2 = V (X ) = = = 0.0404
(α + β ) (α + β + 1) (4.5) 2 (5.5)
2

α −1 9
b) Mode = = = 0.6338
α + β − 2 10 + 6.2 − 2
α 10
µ = E( X ) = = = 0.6173
α +β 10 + 6.2
αβ 62
σ 2 = V (X ) = = = 0.0137
(α + β ) (α + β + 1) (16.2)2 (17.2)
2

c) Both the mean and variance from part a) are greater than for part b).

Γ(α + β )
1

∫ Γ(α )Γ(β ) )x
α −1
4-152. a) P ( X > 0.8) = (1 − x) β −1
0.8

1 1
Γ(11) (10)(9)Γ(9) x10
=∫ )x =
9
= 1 − (0.810 ) = 0.8926
0.8
Γ(10)Γ(1) (9)Γ(9) 10 0.8

Γ(α + β )
0.5

∫ Γ(α )Γ(β ) )x
α −1
b) P ( X < 0.5) = (1 − x) β −1
0

0.5 0.5
Γ(11) (10)( 9) Γ(9) x 10
= ∫ )x9 = = 0.510 = 0.0010
0
Γ(10) Γ(1) (9) Γ(9) 10 0
Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 5th edition 15 January 2010

α 10
c) µ = E ( X ) = = = 0.9091
α+β 10 + 1
αβ 10
σ 2 = V(X ) = = = 0.0069
(α + β ) (α + β + 1) (11) 2 (12)
2

4-153. Let X denote the completion proportion of the maximum time. The exercise considers
the proportion 2/2.5 = 0.8
Γ(α + β )
1

∫ Γ(α )Γ(β ) )x
α −1
P ( X > 0.8) = (1 − x) β −1
0.8

1 1
Γ(5) (4)(3)Γ(3) x 2 2 x 3 x 4
= ∫ ) x(1 − x ) 2 = ( − + ) = 12(0.0833 − 0.0811) = 0.0272
0.8
Γ(2)Γ(3) Γ(2)Γ(3) 2 3 4 0. 8

Supplemental Exercises
4-154. f ( x) = 0.04 for 50< x <75
75
a) P( X > 70) = ∫ 0.04dx = 0.2 x 70 = 0.2
75

70

60
b) P( X < 60) = ∫ 0.04dx = 0.04 x 50 = 0.4
60

50

75 + 50
c) E ( X ) = = 62.5 seconds
2
(75 − 50) 2
V (X ) = = 52.0833 seconds2
12

⎛ 275 − 240 ⎞
4-155. a) P(X < 40) = P ⎜ Z < ⎟
⎝ 14 ⎠
= P(Z < 2.5)
= 0.99379
⎛ 205 − 240 ⎞
b) P(X < 30) = P ⎜ Z < ⎟
⎝ 14 ⎠
= P(Z < −2.5)
= 0.00621
Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 5th edition 15 January 2010

0.621% are scrapped

⎛ 45 − 60 ⎞
4-156. a) P(X <45) = P⎜ Z < ⎟ = P(Z < −3) = 0.00135
⎝ 5 ⎠

⎛ 65 − 60 ⎞
b) P(X > 65) = P⎜ Z > ⎟ = P(Z > 1) = 1 − P(Z < 1)
⎝ 5 ⎠
= 1 − 0.841345 = 0.158655
⎛ x − 60 ⎞
c) P(X < x) = P⎜ Z < ⎟ = 0.99.
⎝ 5 ⎠
x − 60
Therefore, = 2.33 and x = 72
5

4-157. a) P(X > 90.6) + P(X < 90.0)


⎛ 90.6 − 90.5 ⎞ ⎛ 90.0 − 90.5 ⎞
= P⎜Z > ⎟ + P⎜Z < ⎟
⎝ 0.1 ⎠ ⎝ 0.1 ⎠
= P(Z > 1) + P(Z < −5)
= 1 − P(Z < 1) + P(Z < −5)
= 1 − 0.84134 + 0
= 0.15866.
Therefore, the answer is 0.15866.
b) The process mean should be set at the center of the specifications; that is, at µ = 90.3.
⎛ 90.0 − 90.3 90.6 − 90.3 ⎞
c) P(90.0 < X < 90.6) = P ⎜ <Z< ⎟
⎝ 0.1 0.1 ⎠
= P(−3 < Z < 3) = 0.9973.
The yield is 100*0.9973 = 99.73%
⎛ 90 − 90.3 90.6 − 90.3 ⎞
d) P(90 < X < 90.6) = P ⎜ <Z< ⎟
⎝ 0.1 0.1 ⎠
= P(−3 < Z < 3)
= 0.9973
P(X=10) = (0.9973)10 = 0.9733
Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 5th edition 15 January 2010

e) Let Y represent the number of cases out of the sample of 10 that are between 90.0 and
90.6 ml. Then Y follows a binomial distribution with n=10 and p=0.9973. Thus, E(Y)=
9.973 or 10.

⎛ 50 − 100 80 − 100 ⎞
4-158. a) P(50 < X < 80) = P⎜ <Z< ⎟
⎝ 20 20 ⎠
= P(−2.5 < Z < −1)
= P(Z < −1) − P(Z < −2.5)
= 0.15245.
⎛ x − 100 ⎞ x − 100
b) P(X > x) = 0.10. Therefore, P⎜ Z > ⎟ = 0.10 and = 1.28
⎝ 20 ⎠ 20
Therefore, x = 125.6 hours

4-159. E(X) = 1000(0.2) = 200 and V(X) = 1000(0.2)(0.8) = 160


a)
⎛ 225.5 − 200 ⎞
P( X > 225) = P( X ≥ 226) ≅ 1 − P ⎜ Z ≤ ⎟ = 1 − P( Z ≤ 2.02) = 1 − 0.9783 = 0.0217
⎝ 160 ⎠

⎛ 174.5 − 200 ⎞ 225.5 − 200


b) P (175 ≤ X ≤ 225) ≅ P ⎜ ⎟≤Z ≤ ) = P(−2.02 ≤ Z ≤ 2.02)
⎝ 160 ⎠ 160
= 0.9783 − 0.0217 = .9566
⎛ x − 200 ⎞
c) If P(X > x) = 0.01, then P⎜⎜ Z > ⎟⎟ = 0.01.
⎝ 160 ⎠
x − 200
Therefore, = 2.33 and x = 229.5
160

4-160. The time to failure (in hours) for a laser in a cytometry machine is modeled by an
exponential distribution with 0.00004.
∞ ∞

∫ 0.00004e
−.0.00004 x
a) P( X > 20,000) = dx = − e − 0.00004 x = e − 0.8 = 0.4493
20000 20000
Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 5th edition 15 January 2010

∞ 30000

∫ 0.00004e
−.0.00004 x
b) P( X < 30,000) = dx = − e − 0.00004 x = 1 − e −1.2 = 0.6988
30000 0

30000
c) P (20, 000 < X < 30, 000) = ∫
20000
0.00004e −.0.00004 x dx

30000
= −e−0.00004 x = e −0.8 − e −1.2 = 0.1481
20000

4-161. Let X denote the number of calls in 3 hours. Because the time between calls is an
exponential random variable, the number of calls in 3 hours is a Poisson random variable.
Now, the mean time between calls is 0.5 hours and λ = 1/ 0.5 = 2 calls per hour = 6 calls
in 3 hours.

P( X ≥ 4) = 1 − P( X ≤ 3) = 1 − ⎡ e 6 + e 6 + e 6 + e 6 ⎤ = 0.8488
−6 0 −6 1 −6 2 −6 3

⎢⎣ 0! 1! 2! 3! ⎥⎦

4-162. Let X denote the time in days until the fourth problem. Then, X has an Erlang distribution
with r = 4 and λ = 1/ 30 problem per day.
4
a) E(X) = = 120 days.
30−1
b) Let Y denote the number of problems in 120 days. Then, Y is a Poisson random
variable with λ = 4 problems per 120 days.
⎡ e−4 40 e−4 41 e−4 42 e−4 43 ⎤
P(Y < 4) = ⎢ + + + = 0.4335
⎣ 0! 1! 2! 3! ⎥⎦

4-163. Let X denote the lifetime


a) E ( X ) = 700Γ(1 + 12 ) = 620.4

b) V ( X ) = 7002 Γ(2) − 7002 [Γ(1.5)]2

= 7002 (1) − 7002 (0.25π ) = 105,154.9


2
⎛ 620.4 ⎞
−⎜ ⎟
c) P(X > 620.4) = e ⎝ 700 ⎠
= 0.4559
Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 5th edition 15 January 2010

4-164. (a) E ( X ) = exp(θ + ω 2 / 2) = 0.001

exp(ω 2 ) − 1 = 2

So ω = ln 5 = 1.2686
And θ = ln 0.001 − ω 2 / 2 = −7.7124

(b) P( X > 0.005) = 1 − P(exp(W ) ≤ 0.005) = 1 − P(W ≤ ln 0.005)

⎛ ln 0.005 + 7.7124 ⎞
= 1− Φ ⎜ ⎟ = 0.0285
⎝ 1.2686 ⎠

5
5
⎛ x2 ⎞
4-165. a) P ( X < 5) = ∫ (0.25 x − 1)dx = ⎜ 0.25 − x ⎟ = 0.125
4 ⎝ 2 ⎠4
8
x2 8
b) P( X > 7) = ∫ (0.25 x − 1)dx = 0.25 − x = 0.815
7
2 7

6
x2 6
c) P(5 < X < 6) = ∫ (0.25 x − 1)dx = 0.25 − x = 0.375
5
2 5

x
t2 x x2
d) F ( x) = ∫ (0.25t − 1)dt = 0.25 −t = − x + 2 . Then,
4
2 4 8

⎧0, x<4

⎪ x2
F ( x) = ⎨ − x + 2, 4 ≤ x < 8
⎪8
⎪1, 8≤ x

8
x3 x 2 8 128 ⎛ 16 ⎞ 40
e) E ( X ) = ∫ x (0.25 x − 1)dx = 0.25 − = − 32 − ⎜ − 8 ⎟ =
4
3 2 4 3 ⎝ 3 ⎠ 3
8 2 8
⎛ 40 ⎞ ⎛ 80 1600 ⎞
V ( X ) = ∫ ⎜ x − ⎟ (0.25 x − 1)dx = ∫ ⎜ x 2 − x + ⎟ (0.25 x − 1) dx
4⎝
3 ⎠ 4⎝
3 9 ⎠
8
⎛ 23 640 1600 ⎞ x 4 23 3 320 2 1600 8
= ∫ ⎜ 0.25 x 3 − x 2 + x− ⎟ dx = − x + x − x
4⎝
3 9 9 ⎠ 16 9 9 9 4

= 90.66
Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 5th edition 15 January 2010

4-166. Let X denote the time between calls. Then, λ = 1/ E ( X ) = 0.1 calls per minute.
5 5
a) P( X < 5) = ∫ 0.1e − 0.1x dx = −e − 0.1x = 1 − e − 0.5 = 0.3935
0 0

15
b) P(5 < X < 15) = −e − 0.1x = e − 0.5 − e −1.5 = 0.3834
5

x
c) P(X < x) = 0.9. Then, P( X < x) = ∫ 0.1e − 0.1t dt = 1 − e − 0.1x = 0.9 . Now, x = 23.03
0

minutes.
d) This answer is the same as part a).
5 5
P( X < 5) = ∫ 0.1e − 0.1x dx = −e − 0.1x = 1 − e − 0.5 = 0.3935
0 0

e) This is the probability that there are no calls over a period of 5 minutes. Because a
Poisson process is memoryless, it does not matter whether or not the intervals are
consecutive.
∞ ∞
P( X > 5) = ∫ 0.1e −0.1x dx = −e −0.1x = e −0.5 = 0.6065
5 5

f) Let Y denote the number of calls in 30 minutes.


Then, Y is a Poisson random variable with λ = 3 .
e −3 3 0 e −3 31 e −3 3 2
P (Y ≤ 2) = + + = 0.423 .
0! 1! 2!
g) Let W denote the time until the fifth call.
Then, W has an Erlang distribution with λ = 0.1 and r = 5.
E(W) = 5/0.1 = 50 minutes.

4-167. Let X denote the lifetime. Then λ = 1/ E ( X ) = 1/ 6 .


3 3
a) P( X < 3) = ∫
0
1
6
e − x / 6 dx = −e − x / 6
0
= 1 − e − 0.5 = 0.3935 .
Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 5th edition 15 January 2010

b) Let W denote the number of CPUs that fail within the next three years. Then, W is a
binomial random variable with n = 10 and p = 0.3935 (from Exercise 4-130). Then,
P (W ≥ 1) = 1 − P(W = 0) = 1 − ( 10
0 ) 0.3935 (1 − 0.3935)
0 10
= 0.9933 .

4-168. X is a lognormal distribution with θ = 0 and ω2 = 4


a) P (10 < X < 50) = P (10 < eW < 50) = P (ln(10) < W > ln(50))

⎛ ln(50) − 0 ⎞ ⎛ ln(10) − 0 ⎞
= Φ⎜ ⎟−Φ⎜ ⎟
⎝ 2 ⎠ ⎝ 2 ⎠
= Φ (1.96) − Φ (1.15) = 0.975002 − 0.874928 = 0.10007

⎛ ln( x) − 0 ⎞
b) P( X < x) = P (e W < x) = P (W < ln( x)) = Φ⎜ ⎟ = 0.05
⎝ 2 ⎠
ln( x) − 0
= −1.64 x = e − 1 . 64 ( 2 ) = 0 . 0376
2
2
c) µ = E ( X ) = e
θ+ω /2
= e 0 + 4 / 2 = e 2 = 7.389
2 2
V ( X ) = e 2 θ + ω ( e ω − 1) = e 0 + 4 ( e 4 − 1) = e 4 ( e 4 − 1) = 292 6.4 0

4-169. a) Find the values of θ and ω2 given that E(X) = 50 and V(X) = 4000
2 2 2
50 = eθ + ω /2
4000 = e2θ + ω (eω − 1)
2
let x = eθ and y = eω then (1) 50 = x y and (2) 4000= x2 y( y −1) = x2 y2 − x2 y

50
Square (1) for x x = and substitute into (2)
y
2 2
⎛ 50 ⎞ ⎛ 50 ⎞
4000 = ⎜ ⎟ y2 − ⎜ ⎟ y = 2500( y −1)
⎜ y⎟ ⎜ y⎟
⎝ ⎠ ⎝ ⎠
y = 2.6
50
substitute y back in to (1) and solve for x x = = 31
2. 6

θ = ln(31) = 3.43 and ω2 = ln(2.6) = 0.96


Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 5th edition 15 January 2010

⎛ ln(150) − 3.43 ⎞
b) P ( X < 150) = P (eW < 150) = P(W < ln(150)) = Φ ⎜ ⎟
⎝ 0.98 ⎠
= Φ (1.61) = 0.946301

4-170. Let X denote the number of fibers visible in a grid cell. Then, X has a Poisson distribution
and λ = 100 fibers per cm2 = 80,000 fibers per sample = 0.5 fibers per grid cell.
e −0.5 0.5 0
a) P ( X ≥ 1) = 1 − P( X = 0) = 1 − = 0.3935 .
0!
b) Let W denote the number of grid cells examined until 10 contain fibers. If the number
of fibers have a Poisson distribution, then the number of fibers in each grid cell are
independent. Therefore, W has a negative binomial distribution with p = 0.3935.
Consequently, E(W) = 10/0.3935 = 25.41 cells.
10(1 − 0.3935)
c) V(W) = . Therefore, σ W = 6.25 cells.
0.39352

4-171. Let X denote the height of a plant.


⎛ 2.25 − 2.6 ⎞
a) P(X>2.25) = P ⎜ Z > ⎟ = P(Z > −0.7) = 1 − P(Z ≤ −0.7) = 0.7580
⎝ 0.5 ⎠

⎛ 2.0 − 2.6 3.0 − 2.6 ⎞


b) P(2.0 < X < 3.0) = P ⎜ <Z< ⎟ =P(−1.2 < Z < 0.8) = 0.673
⎝ 0.5 0.5 ⎠

⎛ x − 2.6 ⎞ x − 2.6
c) P(X > x) = 0.90 = P ⎜ Z > ⎟ = 0.90 and = −1.28.
⎝ 0.5 ⎠ 0.5
Therefore, x = 1.96.

4 4
4-172. a) P( X > 3.5) = ∫ (0.5x − 1)dx = 0.5 x2 − x = 0.4375
2

3.5
3.5

using the distribution of Exercise 4-135.


b) Yes, because the probability of a plant growing to a height of 3.5 centimeters or more
without irrigation is small.

4-173. Let X denote the thickness.


Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 5th edition 15 January 2010

⎛ 5. 5 − 5 ⎞
a) P(X > 5.5) = P⎜ Z > ⎟ = P(Z > 2.5) = 0. 0062
⎝ 0.2 ⎠

⎛ 4.5 − 5 5. 5 − 5 ⎞
b) P(4.5 < X < 5.5) = P⎜ <Z< ⎟ = P (−2.5 < Z < 2.5) = 0.9876
⎝ 0.2 0. 2 ⎠
Therefore, the proportion that do not meet specifications is
1 − P(4.5 < X < 5.5) = 0.012.
⎛ x −5⎞ x −5
c) If P(X < x) = 0.95, then P⎜ Z > ⎟ = 0.95. Therefore, = 1.65 and x = 5.33.
⎝ 0 .2 ⎠ 0.2

4-174. Let X denote the dot diameter. If P(0.0035 < X < 0.0065) = 0.9970, then
⎛ 0.0035 − 0.005 0.0065 − 0.005 ⎞ ⎛ −0.0015 0.0015 ⎞
P⎜ <Z< ⎟ = P⎜ <Z< = 0.9970 .
⎝ σ σ ⎠ ⎝ σ σ ⎟⎠
0.0015
Therefore, = 2.75 and σ = 0.0005.
σ

4-175. If P(0.005 − x < X < 0.005 + x), then P(−x/0.001 < Z < x/0.001) = 0.9970. Therefore,
x/0.001 = 2.75 and x = 0.0028. The specifications are from 0.0022 to 0.0078.

4-176. Let X denote the life.


⎛ 5800 − 7000 ⎞
a) P( X < 5800) = P ⎜ Z < ⎟ = P( Z < −2) = 1 − P( Z ≤ 2) = 0.023
⎝ 600 ⎠
⎛ x − 7000 ⎞ x − 7000
b) If P(X > x) = 0.9, then P ⎜ Z < ⎟ = −1.28 . Consequently, = −1.28 and
⎝ 600 ⎠ 600
x = 6232 hours.
⎛ 10,000 − µ ⎞
c) If P(X > 10,000) = 0.99, then P ⎜ Z > ⎟ = 0.99 . Therefore,
⎝ 600 ⎠
10,000 − µ
= −2.33 and µ = 11,398 .
600
d) The probability a product lasts more than 10000 hours is [ P( X > 10000)]3 , by

independence. If [ P( X > 10000)]3 = 0.99, then P(X > 10000) = 0.9967.


Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 5th edition 15 January 2010

⎛ 10000 − µ ⎞ 10000 − µ
Then, P(X > 10000) = P ⎜ Z > ⎟ = 0.9967 . Therefore, = −2.72
⎝ 600 ⎠ 600
and µ = 11,632 hours.

4-177. X is an exponential distribution with E(X) = 7000 hours


5800 x ⎛ 5800 ⎞
1 − 7000 −⎜ ⎟
a) P ( X < 5800) = ∫
0
7000
e dx = 1 − e ⎝ 7000 ⎠ = 0.5633

∞ x x
1 − −
b) P( X > x) = ∫ e 7000 dx =0.9 Therefore, e 7000 = 0.9 and x = −7000 ln(0.9) = 737.5
x
7000

hours

4-178. Find the values of θ and ω2 given that E(X) = 7000 and σ = 600
2 2 2
7000 = eθ + ω /2
6002 = e2θ +ω (eω − 1)
2
let x = eθ and y = eω then (1) 7000 = x y and (2) 6002 = x 2 y ( y − 1) = x 2 y 2 − x 2 y

Square (1) 7000 2 = x 2 y and substitute into (2)

600 2 = 7000 2 ( y − 1)
y = 1.0073
7000
Substitute y into (1) and solve for x x = = 6974.6
1.0073
θ = ln(6974.6) = 8.850 and ω2 = ln(1.0073) = 0.0073

⎛ ln(5800) − 8.85 ⎞
a) P ( X < 5800) = P (eW < 5800) = P (W < ln(5800)) = Φ ⎜ ⎟
⎝ 0.0854 ⎠
= Φ (−2.16) = 0.015

⎛ ln( x ) − 8.85 ⎞
b) P ( X > x) = P (eW > x) = P(W > ln( x)) = 1 − Φ ⎜ ⎟ = 0.9
⎝ 0.0854 ⎠
ln( x) − 8.85
= −1.28 x = e −1.28(0.0854)+8.85 = 6252.20 hours
0.0854

4-179. a) Using the normal approximation to the binomial with n = 8 × 100 × 100 = 80,000,
Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 5th edition 15 January 2010

and p = 0.0002 we have: E(X) = 80000(0.0002) = 16


⎛ X − np 0.7 − 16 ⎞
P( X ≥ 1.2) ≅ P ⎜ ≥ ⎟
⎜ np(1 − p) 80000(0.0002)(0.9998) ⎟⎠

= P( Z > − 3.83) = 1 − 0.000064 = 0.999936

⎛ X − np 4.3 − 16 ⎞
b) P ( X ≥ 4.8) ≅ P ⎜ ≥ ⎟
⎜ np(1 − p) 80000(0.0002)(0.9998) ⎟⎠

= P( Z ≥ −2.93) = 1 − 0.0017 = 0.9983

4-180. Using the normal approximation to the binomial with X being the number of people who
will be seated. Then X ~Bin(200, 0.9).
⎛ X − np 185.5 − 180 ⎞
a) P(X ≤ 185) = P ⎜ ≤ ⎟ = P ( Z ≤ 1.30) = 0.9032
⎜ np(1 − p) 200(0.9)(0.1) ⎟⎠

b) P( X < 185)

⎛ X − np 184.5 − 180 ⎞
≈ P ( X ≤ 184.5) = P ⎜ ≥ ⎟⎟ = P( Z ≤ 1.06) = 0.8554
⎜ np(1 − p) 200(0.9)(0.1)
⎝ ⎠
c) P(X ≤ 185) ≅ 0.95,
Successively trying various values of n: The number of reservations taken could be
reduced to about 198.
n Z0 Probability P(Z <
Z0)
190 3.51 0.999776
195 2.39 0.9915758
198 1.73 0.9581849

Mind-Expanding Exercises
Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 5th edition 15 January 2010

4-181. a) P(X > x) implies that there are r − 1 or less counts in an interval of length x. Let Y
denote the number of counts in an interval of length x. Then, Y is a Poisson random
r −1
(λ x ) i
variable with parameter λx. Then, P ( X > x ) = P (Y ≤ r − 1) = ∑ e − λ x .
i =0 i!
r −1
(λ x ) i
b) P ( X ≤ x) = 1 − ∑ e − λ x
i =0 i!

c) f X ( x) = d
F X ( x ) = λ e − λx ∑
r −1
(λx )i r −1
− e − λx ∑ λ i
(λx )i = λ e − λx
(λx )r −1
dx
i =0 i! i =0 i! (r − 1)!

4-182. Let X denote the diameter of the maximum diameter bearing. Then, P(X > 1.6) = 1
− P ( X ≤ 1.6) . Also, X ≤ 1.6 if and only if all the diameters are less than 1.6. Let Y denote
the diameter of a bearing. Then, by independence
10
⎡ ⎛ 1.6 − 1.5 ⎞ ⎤
P( X ≤ 1.6) = [ P(Y ≤ 1.6)] = ⎢ P ⎜ Z ≤10
⎟ ⎥ = 0.999967 = 0.99967
10

⎣ ⎝ 0.025 ⎠ ⎦
Then, P(X > 1.6) = 0.0033.

4-183. a) Quality loss = Ek ( X − m) 2 = kE ( X − m) 2 = kσ 2 , by the definition of the variance.

b) Quality loss = Ek ( X − m) 2 = kE ( X − µ + µ − m) 2

= kE[( X − µ ) 2 + ( µ − m) 2 + 2( µ − m)( X − µ )]
= kE ( X − µ ) 2 + k ( µ − m) 2 + 2k ( µ − m) E ( X − µ ).
The last term equals zero by the definition of the mean.
Therefore, quality loss = kσ 2 + k ( µ − m) 2 .

4-184. Let X denote the event that an amplifier fails before 60,000 hours. Let A denote the event
that an amplifier mean is 20,000 hours. Then A' is the event that the mean of an amplifier
is 50,000 hours. Now, P(E) = P(E|A)P(A) + P(E|A')P(A') and
60,000 60,000
P( E | A) = ∫ 0
1
20,000 e − x / 20,000 dx = −e− x / 20,000
0
= 1 − e −3 = 0.9502

60 , 000
P ( E | A' ) = −e − x / 50 , 000 = 1 −e − 6 / 5 = 0.6988 .
0
Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 5th edition 15 January 2010

Therefore, P(E) = 0.9502(0.10) + 0.6988(0.90) = 0.7239

P (t1 < X < t1 + t2 )


4-185. P ( X < t1 + t2 X > t1 ) = from the definition of conditional probability.
P ( X > t1 )
Now,
t1 + t2

∫ λ e− λ x dx = −e− λ x = e − λt1 − e − λ (t1 +t2 )


t1 + t2
P(t1 < X < t1 + t2 ) = t1
t1

P( X > t1 ) = −e − λ x ∞
t1 = e − λt1

e − λt1 (1 − e− λt2 )
Therefore, P ( X < t1 + t2 X > t1 ) = − λ t1
= 1 − e − λ t2 = P ( X < t 2 )
e

4-186. a) 1 − P ( µ 0 − 6σ < X < µ0 + 6σ ) = 1 − P (−6 < Z < 6)

= 1.97 ×10−9 = 0.00197ppm

⎛ X − ( µ0 + 1.5σ ) ⎞
b) 1 − P ( µ0 − 6σ < X < µ0 + 6σ ) = 1 − P ⎜ −7.5 < < 4.5 ⎟
⎝ σ ⎠
= 3.4 ×10−6 = 3.4 ppm
c) 1 − P( µ0 − 3σ < X < µ0 + 3σ ) = 1 − P (−3 < Z < 3)
= .0027 = 2, 700 ppm

⎛ X − ( µ0 + 1.5σ ) ⎞
d) 1 − P( µ0 − 3σ < X < µ0 + 3σ ) = 1 − P ⎜ −4.5 < < 1.5 ⎟
⎝ σ ⎠
= 0.0668106 = 66,810.6 ppm
e) If the process is centered six standard deviations away from the specification limits and
the process mean shifts even one or two standard deviations there would be minimal
product produced outside of specifications. If the process is centered only three standard
deviations away from the specifications and the process shifts, there could be a substantial
amount of product outside of the specifications.