Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Commentary]
Author(s): Richard A. D'Aveni, Jonathan M. Canger and Joseph J. Doyle
Source: The Academy of Management Executive (1993-2005), Vol. 9, No. 3 (Aug., 1995), pp.
45-60
Published by: Academy of Management
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/4165272
Accessed: 25-10-2017 06:46 UTC
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C Academy of Management Executive, 1995 Vol. 9 No. 3
In the old days in science, the universe was fairly simple. Nearly every science
museum had a huge, old model of the solar system in which all the movements
of the planets were controlled with clockwork gears. Then we realized that
reality was much more complex. All motion was relative.
We have seen giants of American industry, such as General Motors and IBM,
shaken to their cores. Their competitive advantages, once considered
unassailable, have been ripped and torn in the fierce winds of competition.
Technological wonders appear overnight. Aggressive global competitors arrive
on the scene. Organizations are restructured. Markets appear and fade. The
weathered rule books and generic strategies once used to plot our strategies no
longer work as well in this environment.
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Academy of Management Executive
any more. Leadership in price and quality is also not enough to assure success.
Being first is not always the same as being best. Entry barriers are trampled
down or circumvented. Goliaths are brought down by clever Davids with
slingshots. Welcome to the world of hypercompetition.
Hypercompetition
Hypercompetition results from the dynamics of strategic maneuvering among
global and innovative combatants. It is a condition of rapidly escalating
competition based on price-quality positioning, competition to create new
know-how and establish first-mover advantage, competition to protect or invade
established product or geographic markets, and competition based on deep
pockets and the creation of even deeper pocketed alliances. In hypercompetition
the frequency, boldness, and aggressiveness of dynamic movement by the
players accelerates to create a condition of constant disequilibrium and change.
Market stability is threatened by short product life cycles, short product design
cycles, new technologies, frequent entry by unexpected outsiders, repositioning
by incumbents, and radical redefinitions of market boundaries as diverse
industries merge. In other words, environments escalate toward higher and
higher levels of uncertainty, dynamism, heterogenity of the players, and
hostility.
There is evidence that It is not just fast-moving, high-tech industries, such as computers, or industries
competition is heating shaken by deregulation, such as the airlines, that are facing this aggressive
up across the competition. There is evidence that competition is heating up across the board,
board ... even in what once seemed the most sedate industries. From software to soft
drinks, from microchips to com chips, from packaged goods to package delivery
services, there are few industries that have escaped hypercompetition. As Jack
Welch, CEO of General Electric, commented, "It's going to be brutal. When I
said a while back that the 1980s were going to be a white-knuckle decade and
the 1990s would be even tougher, I may have understated how hard it's going to
get."4
There are few industries and companies that have escaped this shift in
competitiveness. Even such seemingly comatose industries as hot sauces or
such commodity strongholds as U.S. grain production have been jolted awake
by the icy waters of hypercompetition.
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D'Aveni
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Academy of Management Executive
endless cycle of jockeying for position. Just one hypercompetitive player (often
from abroad) is enough to trigger this cycle.
At each point firms press forward to gain new advantages or tear down those of
their rivals. This movement, however, takes the industry to faster and more
intense levels of competition. The most interesting aspect of this movement is
that, as firms maneuver and outmaneuver each other, they are constantly
pushing toward perfect competition, where no one has an advantage. However,
while firms push toward perfect competition, they must attempt to avoid it
because abnormal profits are not at all possible in perfectly competitive
markets. In hypercompetitive markets it is possible to make temporary profits.
Thus, even though perfect competition is treated as the "equilibrium" state in
static economic models, it is neither a desired nor a sustainable state from the
perspective of corporations seeking profits. They would prefer low and moderate
levels of competition but often settle for hypercompetitive markets because the
presence of a small number of aggressive foreign corporations won't cooperate
enough to allow the old, more genteel levels of competition that existed in the
past.
Because of the nature of the hypercompetitive environment, the New 7S's are not
presented as a series of generic strategies or a recipe for success. Instead, these
are key approaches that can be used to carry the firm in many different
directions. They are focused on disrupting the status quo through a series of
temporary advantages rather than maintaining equilibrium by sustaining
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D'Aveni
advantages. The exact strategic actions formulated under this system will
depend on many variables within the industry and the firm. Many types of
strategic initiatives can be carried out using the New 7S's, and there are many
variations.
As shown in Exhibit 2, the New 7S's encompass three factors for effective
delivery of a series of market disruptions: vision, capabilities, and tactics. What
is being called for is an increased emphasis on the first two levels (vision and
capabilities) and more creative approaches to the last level (tactics) than many
firms currently use.
Mar ke
Disruption
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Academy of Management Executive
Before the Pentium chip, Intel rarely asked customers what they wanted, but
now they have instituted a process of concurrent engineering to get customers
(and internal manufacturing) involved as early as possible. Now, when
designing new chips, Intel designers visit every major customer and major
software houses to ask them what they want in a chip. Intel has also provided
early software simulations of its new chips to computer makers, allowing them
to get a jump on designing their new machines, and has produced software
compilers to help software companies use the new chip.
CEO Andrew Grove holds regular meetings with employees from all parts of the
organization to brainstorm about the future, competitive challenges, and
customer needs. Employees are motivated and empowered to serve customers'
priorities above their own. Employees have a right to demand AR-"action
required"-of any executive. Over the years Intel has also worked to avoid
layoffs through asking staff to put in overtime or cut back on hours, so
employees remain motivated to serve customers.
Disruptions that satisfy current customer needs are not enough. Constantly
improving customer satisfaction is now so standard that firms that once led the
pack on customer satisfaction now find themselves without any lead at all.
Thus, the key to achieving real advantage from customer satisfaction is to:
* identify customer needs that even the customer cannot articulate for
him/herself
* find new, previously unserved customers to serve
* create customer needs that never existed before
* predict changes in customer needs before they happen
To do this, firms are now engaging in the second S, strategic soothsaying. This
allows firms to see and create future needs that they can serve better than any
competitor does, even if only temporarily. The ability to see and create these
future need depends upon the firm's ability to predict future trends, to control
the development of key technologies and other know-how that will shape the
future, and to create self-fulfilling prophecies.
Intel CEO Grove has quipped that the company bets millions on science fiction.5
As pressure builds from clonemakers and rival systems, engineers are brought
together to consider the emerging technological capabilities and the
performance needed to keep ahead of competitors. Intel has also expanded into
other areas such as supercomputers, flash memories, video chips, and
networking boards. Its sales in these areas are climbing at an average rate of
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D'Aveni
68 percent per year.6 It has gained 85 percent of the emerging market for flash
memory chips and practically owns one third of the market for massively
parallel computers. This experience provides knowledge that Intel can then
apply to standard chips, adding features such as video.
As in fencing, speed Intel used to bring out one or two new chips each year and a new
and surprise are key microprocessor family every three or four years. In 1992 it drove out nearly thirty
factors in gaining an new variations on its 486 chip and introduced the next generation of chip, the
advantage ... Pentium. To stay ahead of clonemakers, Intel plans to create new families of
chips every year or two throughout the l990s.7 Instead of waiting until the
current generation of chip is rolled out before working on the next one, Intel
now develops several generations of chips at once. It is already working on
making its chips obsolete before they have even hit the market. Intel has
created design-automation software that allows it to add two or three times the
transistors to each new chip design with no increase in development time. It
also has achieved a breakthrough in modeling systems that promises to cut the
four-year product-development cycle by six months. The new Quickturn system
will allow Intel to perform engineering tests up to thirty thousand times faster.
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If a competitor is Intel has used advances in modeling and design of new chips to surprise
unaware of the competitors. Its new modeling system gave it a strategic victory over a
opportunity to create competing RISC-based chip. At a technology forum in 1991, an Intel executive
a new advantage, demonstrated a working model of the Pentium chip, using a link to the model,
surprise can maintain before an actual chip was ready. In what may have been a response to Intel's
that lack of signal, six months later Compaq Computer Corporation canceled plans to
awareness. launch a RISC-based personal computer.8 And it is still unclear whether new
research efforts in RISC chips will surprise Intel.
Capabilities for speed and surprise are therefore key elements for successfully
disrupting the status quo and creating temporary advantages. These
capabilities are flexible in that they can be deployed across a wide range of
specific actions.
In contrast to static approaches to strategy, these final three S's are concerned
with a dynamic process of actions and interactions. Most planning is concerned
with the company's next move to gain advantage. It usually analyzes potential
competitive responses but doesn't shape those responses to its advantage.
The view presented here is a set of tactics designed to disrupt the status quo
and create temporary advantage. Tactics such as actions that shift the rules of
competition create a sudden and discontinuous move in the industry, reshaping
the competitive playing field and confusing the opponent.
Intel's move into new areas such as supercomputers, interactive digital video,
and flash memory has helped shift the rules of competition. Flash memory
provides an alternative to the standard memory market, where Intel lost out to
Japanese competitors. Intel is adding ancillary products, such as networking
circuit boards and graphic chips, that make it easier for computer makers to
add these features. It has also designed a personal computer with workstation
power, the Panther, which it is licensing to computer makers. This shifts the
rules by creating a machine that Intel is not marketing itself. The purpose of the
design is to take full advantage of Intel's Pentium chip.
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D'Aveni
Signaling can delay Signaling can delay or dampen the competitor's actions to create advantage,
or dampen the throw the competitor off balance, or create surprise. Grove has signaled Intel's
competitor's actions to intent to fight the clonemakers "with everything we've got."9 It has also stated a
create advantage, vision of making the company the center of all computing, from palmtops to
throw the competitor supercomputers. Its precise strategy for doing this is less visible. Although it
off balance, or create has clearly revealed that it has 686 and 786 chips in the works, what these chips
surprise. will be able to do is still open to speculation. As discussed, Intel used signaling
to shift the rules of competition by transforming computer chips from a hidden
commodity to a marketing asset through its Intel Inside campaign. By making
the chip visible and using branding in marketing PCs, it made major gains in
its battle against the clones. But the brand is only as powerful as the computer
chip behind it.
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As suggested earlier, while the traditional 7S's are concerned with capitalizing
on creating a static strategic fit among internal aspects of the organization, the
New 7S's are concerned with four key goals that are based on understanding
dynamic strategic interactions over long periods of time.
Some Tradeoffs
One final analysis can be done using the New 7S's. In choosing which to
concentrate on, companies are forced to make tradeoffs among them. This
makes it difficult for companies to do all seven equally well. Companies choose
among the seven to confront different challenges and opportunities that present
themselves.
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D'Aveni
Thus, it is possible to analyze a competitor (or one's own company) to see what
types of tradeoffs have been made. Once these are identified, the weakness of
the competitor (or one's own company) is apparent. Furthermore, the tradeoff
means that the competitor can't plug the weakness without giving up something
else. Thus, it is possible to identify weakness, which, if attacked, forces the
competition to be slow to respond or to give up some other strength in order to
respond. Either way the competitor loses.
In hypercompetition it Among the tradeoffs implied by the New 7S's are the following:
is not enough to build
a static set of * Tradeoffs at the expense of stakeholder satisfaction (S-1) can be undermined
competencies. by speed (S-3), as companies may sacrifice product or service quality to
gain speed or push employees to work harder and faster. Speeding
products to market with little testing could also reduce customer
satisfaction. Similarly surprise (S-4), shifting the rules (S-5), signaling (S-6),
and simultaneous and sequential strategic thrusts (S-7) also have the
potential to confuse customers, employees, and shareholders as well as
competitors.
* Tradeoffs at the expense of future orientation/soothsaying. Strategic
soothsaying (S-2) can be hurt by speed (S-3), which often leaves little time
for reflecting on what lies ahead, and surprise (S-4), which is sudden and
unpredictable enough to make prognostication irrelevant or impossible.
Shifting the rules (S-5) often reshapes competition in a way that
unpredictably changes future opportunities so that soothsaying becomes
difficult. To the extent that competitor reactions are not anticipated,
simultaneous and sequential strategic thrusts (S-7) sometimes make
soothsaying more difficult.
* Tradeoffs at the expense of speed. Speed (S-3) can be eroded through the
slowness of decision making in an organization such as the ones used to
increase stakeholder satisfaction (S-1). Also, strategic alliances used to
shift the rules (S-5) sometimes reduce speed because of negotiations.
Shifting the rules of competition (S-5) may require a tradeoff with speed. It
can temporarily reduce speed (S-3), for example, because of the confusion
and time it takes to regroup and retool to create the new rules.
Simultaneous and sequential strategic thrusts (S-7) can reduce speed (S-3)
because they require more effort than single thrusts.
* Tradeoffs at the expense of surprise. The flexibility and stealth of surprise
(S-4) can be eroded by strategies to increase capabilities for speed. For
example, just in time systems could decrease the company's flexibility
while increasing speed. Alliances to shift the rules sometimes also
decrease surprise because the alliances are usually public. Signaling can
also reduce the element of surprise because it often involves revealing the
strategic intent of the company. Sequential thrusts can reduce surprise (S-4)
by committing the company to a clear set of actions.
These tradeoffs mean that firms can't always do all of the New 7S's equally
well, even if they are above a reasonable threshold on each one of them. Thus,
a competitor can do a tradeoff analysis to identify the maneuvers it can do
through use of the S's that the opponent can't do well because the opponent
can't respond without depleting its strength in one of the other S's. Other firms
will creatively switch among the New 7S's to shift the rules of competition,
sometimes focusing on the opponent's weaker S's, sometimes using several in
concert.
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Moreover, firms have limited resources, so they can't acquire all seven of the
New S's at once. They must prioritize them and make tradeoffs. Thus, it will be
rare that a firm is equally good at all of the New 7S's. This will create
opportunities for a new type of hypercompetitive behavior whereby firms use
the resource investment tradeoffs made by a competitor to determine which of
the New 7S's should be invested in first. Finally, truly hypercompetitive firms,
like Intel, will find ways to eliminate the tradeoffs. Tradeoffs exist only if firms
believe that tradeoffs are necessities and stop looking for ways to do both
alternatives. After all, it was once said that firms could not achieve low cost
and high quality at the same time. Now it is not just a reality but a necessity for
survival in many industries.
. . . it will be rare that While the impact of the New 7S's may be diminished somewhat by their
a firm is equally good widespread adoption, there are several factors that promise to continue to make
at all of the New 7S's. them a source of advantage even after they are widely used. First, the New 7S's
have some inherent flexibility so that different companies using the New 7S's
can take very different strategies. The use of simultaneous and sequential
strategic thrusts (S-7) presents a wide range of options and variations. There are
many other thrusts that can be designed for specific opportunities, making it
difficult for firms to exactly replicate a competitor's use of the New 7S's.
Second, the New 7S's are dynamic. Companies use them in different ways over
time. Stakeholder satisfaction changes, competitive opportunities change,
sources of temporary advantage change. The New 7S's and their goals of
creating disruption and seizing the initiative remain constant, but the methods
companies use to achieve these goals constantly change. In this way, even if all
competitors in an industry are using the New 7S's, their moves will continue to
be unpredictable.
Third, companies usually cannot use all of the New 7S's at once because of
inherent tradeoffs among the S's. Companies perform a balancing act in
weighing these tradeoffs. This adds to the unpredictability of competitive
moves, because companies can use any of the New 7S's in developing their next
strategic move, and the tradeoffs may make it difficult to respond.
As more competitors focus on disrupting the status quo and seizing the
initiative, this intent may become fairly predictable. Companies will know that
their competitors will be actively working on their next competitive move. But
this intent does little to reveal the actual strategies of competitors. All it does is
make it clear that the company will not pursue one strategy; namely, sustaining
its current advantage. This leaves every action other than that one open.
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D'Aveni
The one certain The one certain impact is that as the New 7S's become more widespread,
impact is that as the competition will become more aggressive. Instead of having one or two
New 7S's become competitors seeking to disrupt the status quo, every competitor will be looking
more widespread, for the next source of temporary advantage. With this further intensification of
competition will hypercompetition, one might expect an increased interest in alliances and other
become more forms of cooperation to dampen the intensity of competition (as has already
aggressive. been seen). Ultimately, however, the only way out of this dilemma is for
companies to become more aggressive in seizing the initiative. Cooperative
attempts to end this cycle of aggression will be seen as either illegal
(collusive antitrust violations), or futile, since it is like shoveling sand against
the tide. Leading firms will be wary of cooperative efforts that ask them to be
less aggressive and give up their temporary advantage. Lagging firms with the
fire in their bellies to be number one will not be satisfied with their permanent
status as second-class citizens. So the New 7S's will be used more aggressively
and more frequently in the future world of hypercompetition.
While the New 7S's will continue to be important, especially with the
intensifying competition of the future, there may be even newer S's that emerge
as keys to competitive success. Hypercompetitive companies will continue to
monitor and define these new strategic approaches in new attempts to provide
temporary advantages and sustain momentum with a series of successful
short-term advantages.
Endnotes 1 Adapted from: R.A. D'Aveni, Systems," The Strategy Process (Englewood
Hypercompetition: Managing the Dynamics of Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall, 1988), 270-276.
Strategic Maneuvering (New York, NY: The Free 4 Stratford Sherman, "How to Prosper in the
Press, 1994). Value Decade," Fortune, Nov. 30, 1992, 91.
2 R. Crandall, quoted in Business Week, July 5 Robert D. Hof, "Inside Intel," Business Week,
6, 1992; W. Buffett, quoted in Harvard Business June 1, 1992, 88.
Review, Sept/Oct 1986; M. Leibovitz, quoted in 6Ibid., 90.
Fortune, Feb. 22, 1993; Northern Telecom poster, 7 Ibid., 86-94.
Newsweek, Dec. 28, 1992. 8 Ibid., 89.
3 This title is derived from McKinsey's 9 Ibid., 87.
original 7S's framework. See especially, R. 10 Ashish Nanda and Christopher A. Bartlett,
Waterman, T. Peters, and J. Phillips, "Structure "Intel Corporation-Leveraging Capabilities for
is not Organization," Business Horizons, June Strategic Renewal," working paper, Graduate
1980, 14-26; James Brian Quinn and Henry School of Business, Harvard University,
Mintzberg, "Dealing with Structure and November 25, 1992, 3.
About the Author Richard A. D'Aveni (Ph.D.. Columbia University) teaches business strategy at the Amos Tuck School
at Dartmouth College and consults for several Fortune 500 corporations. He received the A.T.
Kearney Award for his research on why big companies fail, and has been profiled as one of the next
generation's promising new management thinkers by WirtschaftsWoche, Germany's equivalent to
Business Week.
Executive Commentary
Beginning in the early 1970s with Alvin Toffler and Future Shock, various
researchers and writers have urged us to brace for, adapt to, and otherwise
manage waves of increasingly rapid, pervasive change. We were warned that
the demon of accelerating change would be felt everywhere-from technology,
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In his article, D'Aveni looks at the same data set forth by these researchers and
writers, but turns conventional wisdom on its ear by essentially suggesting that
we make, not ride the waves of change. For organizations struggling to keep up
with today's rate of change, the notion of taking action to speed it up seems
counterintuitive and frightening. The logic behind his admonition is analogous
to a driver's manual which states, "If your vehicle's brakes should fail while
traveling downhill at a high rate of speed, press down on the accelerator
pedal." D'Aveni's new 7S's framework recognizes that the steering wheel and
accelerator are the only control options open to many organizations today.
The recommendations of this new framework for increasing speed and targeting
disruption make sense to those of us who have played different roles during
major organizational upheavals and change. Given the choice of participating
in the group that planned the change versus being in the group on which the
bomb is to be dropped, most of us chose the former. Despite our lack of skills,
we preferred positioning ourselves "behind the wheel."
D'Aveni's examples also hit close to home. He could have used Motorola just as
easily as Intel for the article. While positioned as the dominant U.S. player in
two-way radios and systems in the 1970s and 1980s, Motorola chose not to try
and shield itself from emerging technologies, but rather quickly moved to
develop these into paging and cellular communications products-products that
were in direct competition with those in its core businesses. When Japanese
electronic firms showed signs of capturing the growing cellular phone market
with better quality, smaller products, Motorola launched its Six Sigma quality
program, driving itself toward unheard of quality goals on a timetable
accelerated beyond what is considered rapid by most industry standards.
Motorola's worldwide success today clearly supports D'Aveni's position.
There are some questions to be raised, however. The fact that Motorola's
experience fits so well causes me to wonder if the new 7S's framework is
appropriate for organizations operating in more slowly changing markets. Like
a cash cow, might it not be better to milk a moderately competitive situation as
long as possible while building organizational capability to launch into the new
7S's model at the first sign of hypercompetition?
Another issue that concerns me involves the notion of this new framework as a
replacement for the original one. When reading the article, I saw many of the
new "S's" as an expansion of the Strategy "S" in the McKinsey model. It would
be easy to make the argument that in order to effectively implement D'Aveni's
recommendations, you should evaluate your organization in light of the other 6
S's. Does your company have the systems, style, staff, shared values, skills and
structure needed to pull off the new 7S's? Back to the brakeless car metaphor:
given that slowing down is not an option, wouldn't you want to make sure the
rest of the car was ready for higher speeds? The power and handling
characteristics of a Ferrari would no doubt be preferred over a heavily loaded
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'65 Volkswagen bus with bald tires. It also won't hurt to have taken emergency
driver's training and have a passenger on board who was a master map reader.
This means you want to have a change management strategy and some
professional internal or external expertise to guide the change process. As a
final recommendation for driving accelerated change, I'd advocate telling our
passengers (our employees) what we have in mind before we slam down that
accelerator; their screaming and grabbing at the wheel could be downright
distracting!
Jonathan M. Canger is Director of Global Leadership and Organization Development in the Land
Mobile Products Sector of Motorola. He is also a member of the AME Executive Advisory Panel.
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Academy of Management Executive
trained, have inadequate logistical support, or don't know why they are
fighting. As the old saying goes, "for want of a nail the battle was lost." Even
the most brilliantly conceived strategies will be of little consequence if a
company fails to correct fundamental problems stemming from marginal
alignment.
Joseph J. Doyle is a senior consultant in the Organization & Employee Development unit of the North
American Operations of General Motors Corporation. He is a member of the AME Executive Advisory
Panel.
For permission to reproduce this article, contact: Academy of Management, P.O. Box 3020, Briarcliff Manor, NY 10510-8020
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