ValueGuide

February 2018

More global

than local

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Disclaimer: Investment in securities market are subject to market risks, read all the related documents carefully before investing. read more

					CONTENTS
From the Editor’s Desk				EQUITY
Come February, the equity markets have turned volatile. Yes, the levy of long-term capital gains tax (LTCG) and rising inflationary				FUNDAMENTALS
				Stock Idea 12	REGULAR FEATURES
				Stock Update 14 Report Card	4
				Sector Update 27	Earnings Guide 41
				Sharekhan Special 29
				TECHNICALS	DERIVATIVES
expectations post the				Nifty 30 View	31
Union Budget did dent sentiments .... 06				ADVISORY DESK	DERIVATIVES
RESEARCH-BASED EQUITY PRODUCTS				MID Trades 38 Derivatives Ideas 38
Top Picks Basket 07				CURRENCY
				FUNDAMENTALS
				USD-INR 32 GBP-INR	32
				EUR-INR 32 JPY-INR	32
				TECHNICALS
				USD-INR 33 GBP-INR	33
	PMS DESK			EUR-INR 33 JPY-INR	33
WealthOptimizer PMS ProPrime - Diversified Equity ProTech - Index Futures Fund ProTech - Trailing Stops 34 35 36 37				MUTUAL FUND DESK
				Top MF Picks (equity) Top SIP Fund Picks 39 40
	Registered Office: Sharekhan Limited, 10th Floor, Beta Building, Lodha iThink Techno Campus, Off. JVLR, Opp. Kanjurmarg Railway Station, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai – 400042, Maharashtra. Tel: 022 - 61150000. Sharekhan Ltd.: SEBI Regn. Nos.: BSE: INB/INF011073351 / BSE-CD;
NSE: INB/INF/INE231073330 ; MSEI: INB/INF261073333 / INE261073330 ; DP: NSDL-IN-DP-NSDL-233-2003 ; CDSL-IN-DP-CDSL-271-2004; PMS-INP000005786 ; Mutual Fund-ARN 20669 ; Research Analyst: INH000000370; For any complaints email at igc@sharekhan.com ;
	Disclaimer: Client should read the Risk Disclosure Document issued by SEBI & relevant exchanges and the T & C on www.sharekhan.com ; Investment in securities market are subject to market risks, read all the related documents carefully before investing.
DISCLAIMER: This document has been prepared by Sharekhan Ltd. (SHAREKHAN) and is intended for use only by the person or entity to which it is addressed to. This Document may contain confiden- tial and/or privileged material and is not for any type of circulation and any review, retransmission, or any other use is strictly prohibited. This Document is subject to changes without prior notice. This document does not constitute an offer to sell or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Though disseminated to all customers who are due to receive the same, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. SHAREKHAN will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report.
The information contained herein is obtained from publicly available data or other sources believed to be reliable and SHAREKHAN has not independently verified the accuracy and completeness of
the said data and hence it should not be relied upon as such. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on reasonable basis, SHAREKHAN, its subsidiaries and associated compa- disclaimer nies, their directors and employees (“SHAREKHAN and affiliates”) are under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that may prevent SHAREKHAN and affiliates from doing so. This document is prepared for assistance only and is not intended to be and must not alone be taken as the basis for an investment decision. Recipients of this report should also be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance and value of investments can go down as well. The user assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as it deems necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of
companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult its own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. The investment discussed or views expressed may not be suitable for all investors. We do not undertake to advise you as to any change of our views. Affiliates of Sharekhan may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusions from the information presented in this report.
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The analyst certifies that the analyst has not dealt or traded directly or indirectly in securities of the company and that all of the views expressed in this document accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities and do not necessarily reflect those of SHAREKHAN. The analyst further certifies that neither he nor his relatives has any direct or indirect financial interest nor have actual or beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the securities of the company nor have any material conflict of interest nor has served as officer, director or employee or engaged in market making activity of the company. Further, the analyst has also not been a part of the team which has managed or co-managed the public offerings of the company and no part of the analyst’s compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this document.
Either SHAREKHAN or its affiliates or its directors or employees / representatives / clients or their relatives may have position(s), make market, act as principal or engage in transactions of purchase or sell of securities, from time to time or may be materially interested in any of the securities or related securities referred to in this report and they may have used the information set forth herein before publication. SHAREKHAN may from time to time solicit from, or perform investment banking, or other services for, any company mentioned herein. Without limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall SHAREKHAN, any of its affiliates or any third party involved in, or related to, computing or compiling the information have any liability for any damages of any kind.
	2017 2018 Compliance Officer: Mr. Joby John Meledan; Tel: 022-61150000; For any queries or grievances kindly email igc@sharekhan.com or contact: myaccount@sharekhan.com 33				Sharekhan ValueGuide Sharekhan ValueGuide
June February

FUNDAMENTALS

EQUITY

REPORT CARD

STOCK IDEAS STANDING (AS ON FEBRUARY 01, 2018)
COMPANY	CURRENT	PRICE AS ON	PRICE	52 WEEK		ABSOLUTE PERFORMANCE					RELATIVE TO SENSEX
	RECO	01-FEB-18	TARGET	HIGH	LOW	1M	3M	6M	12M	1M	3M	6M	12M
Automobiles
Apollo Tyres	Buy		292	262 -6.7	289 -10.2 172		5.2		36.9	-10.1	0.7	-17.1	8.8
Ashok Leyland	Buy		157	123 -1.8	134 -0.9 81			11.8	30.9	-4.4	-6.1	3.3	4.0
Bajaj Auto	Buy	3413	3625	3473	2695	-1.6	0.0	15.6	17.8	-5.2	-4.3	6.8	-6.4
Gabriel India	Buy	172	222	223	109	-17.0	-16.7	-0.6	48.6	-20.0	-20.3	-8.2	18.1
Hero MotoCorp	Buy	3733	4200	4200	3049	-3.2	-3.0	-4.7	15.0	-6.7	-7.2	-12.0	-8.6
M&M	Buy	799	**	803	607	2.3	15.4	8.9	22.9	-1.4	10.4	0.5	-2.3
Maruti Suzuki E	Buy	9402	11085	10000	5800	-5.9	9.3	16.5	47.8	-9.3	4.6	7.5	17.4
Rico Auto Industries	Buy	88	130	111	44	-20.8	-17.6	5.7	30.2	-23.6	-21.1	-2.4	3.4
TVS Motor	Buy	671	825	795	388	-16.7	-8.7	9.6	66.6	-19.7	-12.6	1.2	32.4
BSE Auto Index		26120		27031	21221	-5.1	0.1	2.0	14.0	-8.5	-4.3	-5.8	-9.4
Banks & Finance
Axis Bank	Buy	593	680	628	448	1.0	6.2	9.3	18.2	-2.7	1.6	0.9	-6.1
Bajaj Finance	Buy	1729	1900	1989	1019	-5.6	-10.0	-4.6	54.9	-9.0	-13.9	-11.9	23.1
Bajaj Finserv	Buy	5038	6050	5835	3400	-3.2	-0.9	-1.3	42.6	-6.7	-5.2	-8.9	13.3
Bank of Baroda	Buy	152	220	207	134	-3.0	-9.6	-6.2	-13.1	-6.5	-13.5	-13.4	-31.0
Bank of India	Hold	154	215	217	123	-11.8	-24.0	-8.7	17.8	-15.0	-27.3	-15.7	-6.4
Capital First	Buy	726	930	902	627	-2.4	-7.8	-12.7	-1.2	-5.9	-11.8	-19.4	-21.5
Federal Bank	Buy	98	135	128	80	-13.3	-21.0	-18.7	12.1	-16.4	-24.4	-25.0	-10.9
HDFC	Buy	1968	2200	1986	1361	11.8	8.0	7.8	37.4	7.8	3.4	-0.5	9.2
HDFC Bank E	Buy	1991	2300	2015	1293	4.0	6.9	8.7	51.0	0.3	2.3	0.4	20.0
ICICI Bank	Buy	346	400	366	240	8.2	5.8	11.0	30.0	4.3	1.3	2.5	3.3
LIC Housing Finance	Hold	532	620	794	505	-9.0	-15.5	-25.5	-7.7	-12.3	-19.1	-31.2	-26.7
Max Financial	Buy	541	660	684	512	-6.8	-6.3	-10.7	-9.5	-10.2	-10.3	-17.6	-28.1
PTC India Financial Services	Buy	35	45	51	33	-11.1	-21.5	-15.0	-18.5	-14.3	-24.9	-21.5	-35.2
Punjab National Bank	Buy	168	240	232	128	-2.7	-18.0	1.8	13.5	-6.2	-21.6	-6.0	-9.8
SBI	Buy	306	370	352	241	-1.9	-5.4	-3.4	9.8	-5.5	-9.5	-10.8	-12.8
Union Bank of India	Hold	132	150	205	124	-10.2	-25.5	-15.0	-15.9	-13.4	-28.7	-21.6	-33.2
Yes Bank	Buy	360	410	383	275	12.0	8.9	-4.6	26.9	8.0	4.2	-11.9	0.8
BSE Bank Index		30788		31376	22929	4.6	3.8	5.5	30.9	0.9	-0.6	-2.6	4.0
Consumer goods
Britannia	Buy	4741	5500	4964	3045	1.5	1.5	22.3	47.1	-2.1	-2.9	12.9	16.9
Emami	Buy	1142	1330	1428	990	-15.7	-12.0	0.0	-3.2	-18.7	-15.8	-7.7	-23.0
GSK Consumers	Hold	6717	**	6940	4851	2.2	22.7	21.5	30.8	-1.5	17.5	12.1	4.0
Godrej Consumer Products E	Buy	1053	1250	1128	768	7.1	7.6	14.5	33.0	3.3	3.0	5.7	5.7
Hindustan Unilever	Hold	1371	1440	1411	838	2.5	10.5	18.2	64.9	-1.2	5.8	9.1	31.0
ITC	Hold	275	325	368	250	5.6	3.7	-3.5	1.9	1.8	-0.8	-10.9	-19.0
Jyothy Laboratories	Buy	365	420	443	325	-3.8	-6.9	-2.6	6.7	-7.2	-10.9	-10.1	-15.2
Marico	Buy	311	365	349	253	-6.5	-2.0	-6.1	20.9	-9.9	-6.2	-13.3	-3.9
Zydus Wellness	Hold	1008	**	1167	809	-2.9	6.7	11.1	15.7	-6.4	2.1	2.6	-8.0
BSE FMCG Index		10780		11047	8717	0.8	3.8	6.9	22.0	-2.9	-0.7	-1.4	-3.0
IT / IT services
Firstsource Solution	Hold	41	45	49	30	-5.8	-9.0	7.7	-4.4	-9.2	-12.9	-0.6	-24.0
HCL Technologies	Buy	985	1050	1042	796	11.2	15.7	13.1	21.4	7.2	10.7	4.4	-3.5
Infosys	Hold	1145	1180	1221	860	11.0	23.9	16.7	25.8	7.0	18.5	7.8	-0.1
Persistent Systems	Buy	784	900	821	558	11.6	20.9	22.4	33.1	7.6	15.7	13.0	5.8
Tata Consultancy Services	Hold	3139	**	3259	2191	20.1	20.4	28.1	45.6	15.8	15.2	18.3	15.7
Wipro	Reduce	301	290	335	227	-5.4	2.8	2.7	32.4	-8.8	-1.6	-5.2	5.2
BSE IT Index		12546		13126	9565	11.8	20.4	21.7	32.5	7.7	15.3	12.4	5.3
Capital goods / Power
CESC	Buy	1045	1165	1190	749	-4.9	-1.6	5.2	33.1	-8.3	-5.9	-2.9	5.8
CG Power & Ind. Solutions	Hold	91	**	99	64	-5.0	0.6	2.4	29.2	-8.4	-3.7	-5.5	2.7
Finolex Cable	Hold	724	**	750		1.9	12.0	418 -1.8 46.8	58.5		7.2	35.6	26.0
Greaves Cotton	Hold	139	**	179		112 -3.7	4.7	-16.3	0.5	-7.2	0.2	-22.7	-20.1
Kalpataru Power Transmission	Hold	462		510 -8.8 536			11.5	275 -12.0 23.2	53.3		6.7	13.8	21.8
KEC International	Buy	350		395 410 -10.8			11.1	150 -14.0 14.0	124.9		6.3	5.3	78.7
PTC India	Hold	104		130 -23.5 130	83	-18.5		-16.2		16.4 -21.5	-26.8	-22.6	-7.5
Skipper	Buy	237		293 275 -6.4	140	-13.5		2.1		46.3 -16.6	-10.5	-5.7	16.3

February 2018

4

Sharekhan ValueGuide

FUNDAMENTALS

EQUITY

REPORT CARD

STOCK IDEAS STANDING (AS ON FEBRUARY 01, 2018)
COMPANY		CURRENT	PRICE AS ON	PRICE	52 WEEK		ABSOLUTE PERFORMANCE					RELATIVE TO SENSEX
		RECO	01-FEB-18	TARGET	HIGH	LOW	1M	3M	6M	12M	1M	3M	6M	12M
Thermax		Hold	1284	**	1375		0.9	25.0	39.2 803 -2.7	51.3		19.7	28.6	20.2
Triveni Turbine		Hold	130	140		167 -2.6	-2.3		-9.6 117 -5.8	7.2		-6.8	-16.5	-14.8
V-Guard Industries		Buy	229	265		251 -4.4	-9.1		146 -12.4 18.5	45.3		-8.5	9.4	15.5
Va Tech Wabag		Buy	590	660		750 -4.3	-9.4		480 -12.7 -8.0	18.1		-8.5	-15.1	-6.2
BSE Power Index			2321		2450	2135	-7.4	-5.3	-3.1	4.1	-10.7	-9.4	-10.6	-17.3
BSE Capital Goods Index			20682		20883	14931	4.3	8.4	13.2	34.4	0.6	3.7	4.5	6.8
Infrastructure / Real estate
Gayatri Projects		Buy	213	263		231 -5.8		11.5	126 -9.2 25.9	56.5		6.7	16.3	24.3
IRB Infra		Buy	243	270		273 -7.1	-2.1		194 -5.7 -0.8	-3.2		-11.1	-8.4	-23.1
Jaiprakash Associates		Hold	20	**	30	9	-24.9	0.6	-30.8	39.7	-27.6	-3.8	-36.1	11.0
Larsen & Toubro		Hold	1456	1520	1470	971	13.3	16.9	21.8	45.6	9.2	11.9	12.4	15.7
NBCC		Buy		310	229 -16.6 292	156	-10.1		2.4	20.3	-13.3	-20.2	-5.5	-4.4
Sadbhav Engineering		Buy		443	410 -8.5 440	261		25.8	34.6	37.8	-11.8	20.4	24.2	9.5
CNX Infra Index					3749 3648 -2.4	2947	-2.5		4.6	20.1	-6.0	-6.6	-3.4	-4.5
BSE Real estate Index					2586 -6.5 2828	1416		2.4	11.5	69.2	-9.9	-2.0	2.9	34.4
Oil & gas
Oil India		Hold		390	389 358 -4.1	257	-7.6		24.4	6.0	-11.0	-8.2	14.8	-15.7
Petronet LNG	NEW	Buy		320	252 -7.3 276	186	-3.7		15.5	27.4	-7.2	-11.3	6.6	1.3
Reliance E		Buy		1110	944 -4.5 991	511	-0.7		11.0	74.6	-4.3	-8.6	2.5	38.7
Selan Exploration Technology		Hold		250	223 -8.9 270	154	-7.6		33.2	19.4	-11.0	-12.8	23.0	-5.1
BSE Oil and gas Index					16159 -4.9 16727	12848	-2.7		10.8	22.9	-6.2	-9.0	2.3	-2.4
Pharmaceuticals
Aurobindo Pharma		Buy		905	809 611 -23.1	503	-9.8		-17.0	-11.9	-13.1	-26.4	-23.4	-29.9
Cadila Healthcare		Hold		485	418 -19.1 560	356	-4.1		-24.0	13.3	-7.5	-22.6	-29.9	-10.0
Cipla		Hold		685	587 -8.6 663	479	-4.4		2.2	-0.2	-7.8	-12.6	-5.6	-20.7
Divi's Labs		Buy	1044	1275	1142	533	-4.9	-4.2	55.5	41.0	-8.3	-8.3	43.5	12.1
Glenmark Pharmaceuticals		Hold		730	588 -9.1 973	526	-0.5		-15.9	-34.9	-4.1	-13.0	-22.4	-48.3
Lupin		Reduce		**	860 -20.2 1574	806	-3.2		-18.2	-42.5	-6.7	-23.6	-24.4	-54.3
Sun Pharmaceutical Industries		Hold		600	729 554 -2.2	433	-3.7		6.0	-13.5	-7.1	-6.4	-2.1	-31.2
Torrent Pharma		Hold		1480	1355 -2.6 1575	1142		2.5	6.6	6.7	-6.1	-1.9	-1.6	-15.2
BSE Health Care Index					14359 -3.7 15612	12513	-4.3		-0.4	-5.7	-7.8	-7.9	-8.0	-25.1
Building materials
Grasim		Buy		1380	1189 -12.7 1300	784	-0.9		2.6	42.7	-4.5	-16.5	-5.3	13.4
Shree Cement		Hold	17453	19600	20560	14915	-5.2	-11.0	-7.4	9.1	-8.7	-14.9	-14.5	-13.3
The Ramco Cements		Hold	759	775	840	616	-5.0	2.6	5.3	5.2	-8.5	-1.8	-2.8	-16.4
UltraTech Cement		Hold	4391	4750	4600	3634	-1.7	-5.0	2.3	12.6	-5.3	-9.1	-5.6	-10.5
Discretionary consumption
Arvind		Buy		500	479 406 -6.6	353	-13.7		3.4	1.4	-16.8	-10.6	-4.5	-19.4
Century Plyboards (India)		Hold		**	323 -8.6 363	206		10.2	9.1	51.1	-11.9	5.5	0.7	20.1
Cox and Kings		Buy		325	244 -10.4 306	183	-15.0		-15.1	22.4	-18.1	-14.3	-21.6	-2.7
Info Edge (India)		Hold	1327	1425	1460	796	1.8	11.4	37.3	66.0	-1.9	6.6	26.8	31.9
Inox Leisure		Buy	284	320	310	213	0.7	9.1	11.0	28.4	-2.9	4.4	2.4	2.1
KKCL		Hold	1710	1950	2200	1575	-11.7	-13.2	-2.1	-5.5	-14.9	-16.9	-9.6	-24.9
Orbit Exports		Hold		177	190 156 -1.2	116		3.5	6.3	3.6	-4.8	-0.9	-1.8	-17.7
Relaxo Footwear		Buy		735	633 -8.9 725	410		4.6	31.9	39.2	-12.1	0.1	21.8	10.6
Thomas Cook India		Buy		270	234 -10.3 274	186	-10.7		0.7	14.5	-13.9	-14.2	-7.1	-9.0
Wonderla Holidays		Hold		382 425 385		330	3.7	1.1	5.8	1.8	0.0	-3.3	-2.3	-19.1
Zee Entertainment E		Buy		595 619 680		458	1.4	10.7	8.5	16.1	-2.3	6.0	0.1	-7.7
Diversified / Miscellaneous
Bajaj Holdings		Buy	2802	3595	3036	1750	-2.1	-5.7	15.3	37.2	-5.6	-9.8	6.4	9.1
Bharat Electronics E		Buy		220	193 162 -18.0	135	-16.4		-7.7	9.3	-19.4	-21.6	-14.8	-13.1
Bharti Airtel E		Buy		600	438 -21.7 565	326	-17.7		2.2	20.6	-20.7	-25.1	-5.6	-4.1
Gateway Distriparks		Hold		250	292 227 -16.7	211	-4.1		-16.8	-8.5	-7.6	-20.3	-23.2	-27.3
PI Industries		Hold		**	914 -5.9 1035	674		8.4	17.7	-2.7	-9.3	3.7	8.6	-22.7
Ratnamani Metals and Tubes		Buy		1250	1021 -8.9 1217	655		11.9	19.6	51.3	-12.2	7.1	10.4	20.2
Supreme Industries		Buy		1363 1490 1450		946	0.6	12.9	18.2	37.9	-3.0	8.1	9.1	9.6
UPL E		Buy	759	980	903	680	-5.2	-5.9	-17.5	-0.1	-8.6	-10.0	-23.9	-20.6
BSE500 Index				15330 15661		11885	0.0	1.9		7.5 -3.6 26.4		-2.5	-0.8	0.4
CNX500 INDEX			9687		9895	7520