Thayer Consultancy Background Report:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Vietnam Diplomatic Success in
2017, Challenges in 2018
Carlyle A. Thayer
February 15, 2018

We request your assessment of Vietnam’s diplomatic strategy in 2017 and the

challenges Vietnam will face this year.
Q1. 2017 was considered generally as a successful year for Vietnamese diplomacy. Ity
hosted the APEC Leaders’ Summit and several official state visits, including those by
Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. What is your assessment?
ANSWER: Undoubtedly the highlight for Vietnamese diplomacy in 2017 was the
successful hosting of the APEC Leaders’ Meeting followed by official visits by the head
of government of China, United States, Canada and Chile.
Another success was the visit of Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc to Washington to
meet President Donald Trump in the White House in late May. Phuc was the first
leader from Southeast Asia to be received by Trump.
Vietnam faced some challenges in the South China Sea with respect to China and
Indonesia. China first withdrew from the fourth friendly border defence exchange in
response to the commencement of oil exploration activities by Repsol in the waters
near Vanguard Bank. After Vietnam stopped, China later agreed to hold the friendly
border defence exchange later in the year.
Some analysts concluded that Xi Jinping’s official visit did not represent a
breakthrough in relations so much as agreement to continue relations on their present
course.
Indonesia arrested Vietnamese fishermen in it Exclusive Economic Zone. There were
returned to Vietnam and both sides agreed to hold discussions on where to draw their
maritime boundary. This would clarify the areas where Vietnamese fishermen were
prohibited from fishing. Vietnam has suggested that the maritime boundary should
follow the continental shelf. No agreement has been reached and both sides will
pursue consultations on this issue.
Finally, Vietnam decided to implement UN Security Council resolutions on North Korea
and in a very diplomatic way invited North Korea to reduce its activities in Vietnam to
comply. Vietnam upholds the principle of non-intervention in other country’s affairs.
But Vietnam also supports the United Nations.
Q2. In 2018, Vietnam hosted the visits of U.S. Defence Secretary James Mattis and
Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu. What is your assessment of Vietnam’s
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diplomatic strategy in 2018? What can Vietnam expect to achieve and what challenges
will it face in 2018?
ANSWER: Vietnam has a long-established framework for its foreign relations. Its
central tenet is to diversify and multilateralize its relations especially with the major
powers and be a reliable friend to all. Vietnam is also active in promoting active and
proactive diplomacy in multilateral organizations and in pursuing economic
integration. Because of this policy Vietnam was successful in being the unanimous
choice of the Asia bloc for non-permanent membership on the UN Security Council for
the 2008-09 term. It won elections by a commanding majority of votes in the General
Assembly (183 out of 190 votes). Vietnam is now attempting to get re-elected to the
Security Council as a non-permanent member.
Vietnam would like to see a stable balance in relations among the major powers.
Vietnam would like the United States, Japan, and India to counter-balance China. But
now that the Trump Administration has declared both China and Russia revisionist
powers and strategic competitors of the United States, the U.S. is trying to form a
coalition to push back. Vietnam does not want to be drawn into the orbit of any major
power. This will be a major challenge for Vietnam in 2018.
Q3. What objectives will Vietnam pursue with respect to maritime disputes in the
South China Sea?
ANSWER: ASEAN seeks to conclude consultations with China on the Code of Conduct
(COC) in the South China Sea by the end of this year. Vietnam wants the geographic
scope of the COC to include both the Hoang Sa (Paracels) and Truong Sa (Spratlys).
China only wants the southern part of the South China Sea to be included. Vietnam
would like the COC to be legally binding. China does not.
ASEAN is being led this year by Singapore, Singapore is also ASEAN’s country
coordinator for relations with China. This should serve Vietnam’s interests. However,
countries like Cambodia can block consensus. Vietnam too can play this game.
Vietnam should not agree to a COC that goes against it nation interests.
There will be no solution to maritime disputes in the South China Sea this year.
Tensions are likely to rise as the U.S. pushes back against China. The emergence of the
Quadrilateral Security Dialogue including the U.S. Japan, Australia and India signals
greater contestation with China in the maritime domain of the Indo-Pacific Region.
Vietnam should give diplomatic and political support to the Quad.
Territorial disputes in the South China Sea are likely to be overshadowed in 2018 by
developments on the Korean peninsula, especially North Korea’s attempt to develop
intercontinental ballistic missiles capable to mounting nuclear warheads that can
reach the continental United States. Another factor that could affect regional security
is the possibility of rising economic tensions between the U.S. and China as each
responds to tariff rises and other punitive actions by the other side.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Vietnam Diplomatic Success in 2017,

Challenges in 2018,” Thayer Consultancy Background Report, February 15, 2018. All
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