PR ASISTENSI MAKROEKONOMI

Cinta Sonia C./1606862646

5. U.S. postwar recessions This question looks at the recessions over the past 40 years. To
work this problem, first obtain quarterly data on U.S. output growth for the period 1960 to the
most recent date from the Web site www.bea.gov. Table 1.1.1 presents the percent change in
real gross domestic product (GDP). This data can be downloaded to a spreadsheet. Plot the
quarterly GDP growth rates from 1960:1 to the latest observations. Which, if any, quarters have
negative growth? Using the definition of a recession as two or more consecutive quarters of
negative growth, answer the following questions.

a) How many recessions has the U.S. economy undergone since 1960, quarter 2?
the U.S. economy undergone since 1960, quarter 2 has recessions for 8 times
b) How many quarters has each recession lasted?
Each recession has
- 1960 (Q2)-1961(Q1) = 4 quarters
- 1970 (Q1)-1970(Q4) = 4 quarters
- 1973 (Q4)-1975(Q2) = 7 quarters
- 1980 (Q1)-1980(Q3) = 3 quarters
- 1981 (Q3)-1982(Q4) = 6 quarters
- 1990 (Q3) -1991(Q2) =4 quarters
- 2001 (Q2)-2001(Q4) = 3 quarters
 - 2008 (Q1)-2009(Q3) = 7 quarters
c) In terms of length and magnitude, which two recessions have been the most severe?
2008 (Q1)-2009(Q3) and 1973 (Q4)-1975(Q2)

6. From Problem 5, write down the quarters in which the six traditional recessions started. Find
the monthly series in the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) database for the seasonally
adjusted unemployment rate. Retrieve the monthly data series on the unemployment rate for the
period 1969 to the end of the data. Make sure all data series are seasonally adjusted.

a. Look at each recession since 1969. What was the unemployment rate in the first month of the
first quarter of negative growth? What was the unemployment rate in the last month of the last
quarter of negative growth? By how much did the unemployment rate increase?

Unemployment rate in the first month of the first quarter of negative growth or on January, 1970
is 3,9%. Unemployment rate in the last month of the last quarter of negative growth or on
November, 1970 is 5,9%. Unemployment rate increases by 2%

b. Which recession had the largest increase in the rate of unemployment? Begin with the month
before the quarter in which output first falls and measure to the highest level of the
unemployment rate before the next recession.

the largest increase in the rate of unemployment on recession is on December 2007 (5%) and
June, 2009 (9,5%) or increases by 4,5%