Bangladesh Studies (SOC-1102) Military Rules in Bangladesh (1975- 1990) ‘This Assignment is about the historical military rules situation after the Liberation war in Bangladesh. Sakib Ahmed Anik 5/28/2016Military Rules After the military rules or coup d'état, the military faces the matter of what type of govemment to establish. In Latin America, it was common for the post-coup govemment to be led by a junta, a committee of the chiefs of staff of the armed forces. History According to Clayton Thyne and Jonathan Powell's coup dataset, there were 457 coup attempts from 1950 to 2010, of which 227 (49.7%) were successful and 230 (50.3%) were unsuccessful. They find that coups have "been most common in Africa and the Americas (36.5% and 31.9%, respectively). Asia and the Middle East have experienced 13.1% and 15.8% of total global coups, respectively. Europe has experienced by far the fewest number of coup attempts: 2.6%." Most coup attempts occurred in the mid-1960s, but there were also large numbers of coup attempts in the mid-1970s and the early 1990s. Successful coups have decreased over time. Coups that occur in the post-Cold War period are more likely to result in democratic systems. Coups that occur during civil wars shorten the war's duration. Research suggests that protests spur coups, as they help elites within the state apparatus to coordinate coups. Classification A 2016 study categorizes coups into four possible outcomes: + Failed coup. ‘+ No regime change. Such as when a leader is illegally shuffled out of power without changing the identity of the group in power or the rules for governing. ‘+ Replacement of incumbent dictatorship with another. ‘© Ouster of the dictatorship followed by democratization. ‘The 2016 study found that about half of all coups — both during and after the Cold War — install new autocratic regimes. New dictatorships launched by coups engage in higher levels of repression in the year that follows the coup than existed in the year leading to the coup. One third of coups during the Cold War and 10 percent of post-Cold Warcoups reshuffled the regime leadership. Democracies were installedin the wake of 12 percent of Cold War coups and 40 percent of the post-Cold War coups.Samuel Huntington's three types of coup d'état Writing in 1968, political scientist Samuel P. Huntington identified three types of coup d'état, which correspond to the role the military plays in three different types of praetorian society" As society changes, so does the role of the military. In the world of oligarchy, the soldier is a radical; in the middle class he is a participant and arbiter; as the "mass society looms on the horizon he becomes the conservative guardian of the existing order". Breakthrough coups In breakthrough coups, the soldier plays the role of "reformer", moving the society from ‘Oligarchical to Radical Praetorianism'". "In oligarchical praetorianism the dominant social forces are landowners, the leading clergy, and the wielders of the sword. In "radical" society, the middle-class is an important social and political class. The shift toward "radical" society take the form of slow evolution, or a "breakthrough" to middle-class political participation may be led by civilian intelligentsia. A breakthrough to radical praetorianism (in which the military plays an important role among the middle class whogovern) may occur when middle- class officers dislodge the civilian intelligentsia who led the breakthrough, or the military may take power directly from the absolute monarchy or the oligarchs in a military coup. Arbiter coups In this type of coup, society is in the stage of “radical praetorianism", meaning that the praetorian society is in the "middle stages in the expansion of political participation" - the middle-class (including the military) are actively involved in politics, but the masses are not regularly politically mobilized. This type of society often follows the breakthrough coup, which “clears the way for the entry of other middle-class elements into politics". In radical praetorian society, various middle-class groups may act against one another in riots or demonstrations, and the military will step in with a military coup to re-establish order and “halt the rabid mobilization of social forces into politics and into the streets to defuse the explosive political situation". Veto coup d'état Veto coups d'état occur when the army vetoes the people's mass participation and social mobilization in goveming themselves. "Military interventions of this "veto" variety thus directly reflect increasing lower-class political participation in politics”. In "veto coups" the soldier plays the role of "guardian of the existing order". In such a case, the army confronts, and suppresses large-scale, broad-based civil opposition.Predictors of coups A 2003 review of the academic literature found that the following factors had been associated with coups: ‘© officers’ personal grievances ‘© military organizational grievances © military popularity ‘* military attitudinal cohesiveness ‘© economic decline © domestic political crisis contagion from other regional coups external threat participation in war foreign veto power and military's national security doctrine officers’ political culture nonexclusive institutions colonial legacy economic development undiversified exports officers’ class composition military size ‘strength of civil society © Regime legitimacy and past coups. The literature review in 2 2016 study includes mentions of ethnic factionalism, supportive foreign governments, leader inexperience, slow growth, commodity price shocks, and poverty. The cumulative number of coups is a strong predictor of future coups. Hybrid regimes are more vulnerable to coups than very authoritarian states or democratic states. A 2015 study finds that terrorism is strongly associated with re-shuffling coups. A 2016 study finds that there is an ethnic component to coups: "When leaders attempt to build ethnic armies, or dismantle those created by their predecessors, they provoke violent resistance from military officers.” Military coups in Banglades! Bangladesh has undergone several military coups since its independence from Pakistan in 1971. Two resulted in assassination of the heads of state. 1975 coups15 August The coup of 15 August 1975 was organized by junior officers of Bangladesh Army. They were led by Major Syed Faruge Rahman and Major Rashid. The coup resulted in the assassination of the country's president Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, of the Awami League; his family except for daughters Sheikh Hasina and Sheikh Rehana, who were in Germany; and several ministers and party leaders. 3 November ‘The govemment setup by Major Faruque, Major Rashid and Khondaker Mostag Ahmad was overthrown in @ coup on 3 November 1975. This was organized by Brigadier Khaled Mosharraf, Bir Uttom, a decorated freedom fighter. Mosharraf was seen by many as a supporter of Sheikh Mujibir's govemment. He put Major General Ziaur Rahman, the Chief of Amny Staff and fellow freedom fighter, who was believed to have supported the August coup, under house arrest but did not execute him. Some commentators said that the personal friendship between the two officers led to Mosharraf sparing Rahman's life. 7 November Led by Lt. Colonel (Retd.) Abu Taher, soldiers of the Bangladesh Amy overthrew the 3-day coup of Mosharraf and freed Major General Ziaur Rahman from house arrest. They killed Khaled Mosharraf and his associates. Rumors about Mosharraf's affiliation with India (2 FER cover atthe time carried the headline "The Indian Coup?") aggravated army suspicion of this coup. Former Army Chief Major General Shafiullah alleged that many JSD (Jatiyo Shomajthantrhik Dol: National Socialist Party) elements infiltrated the army in early 1975. On 6-7 November 1975 some of the JSD elements distributed leaflets and agitated soldiers against the officer class of the army. JSD tried to control the counter-coup organized by Abu Taher. Taher rescued Ziaur Rahman (known as Zia) from captivity, who later, in the process, became president (not prime minister) of the country. Zia later conducted a secrettrial, in which Taher was convicted. He was executed for his part in the coup. The special tribunal was described as a "kangaroo trial" by journalist Lawrence Lifschultz and led to his expulsion from the country by the military junta of Ziaur. Lifschultz later documented the tumultuous coup and counter-coup of this period in his book, Bangladesh: The Unfinished Revolution. Coups between (1977-1980) Ziaur Rahman survived as many as 21 coup attempts during his five years as leader of the country until he was killed by the coup of 1981. Most of those coups were led by the 1971 freedom-fighter officers who were irked by Ziaur's liaison with anti-liberation pro-Islamic quarters. 30 September 1977 a coup was held in Bogra Cantonment. 22 East Bengal Regiment participated in this coup. Butt failed. 2 October 1977 another coup erupted, led by the airmen of Bangladesh Air Force. Six Air Force officers died in this coup. No one knows why this coup was begun. Witness says that on 2October five members of the "Red Army" of Japan were trying to hijack a Japan Airline DC-8, including 156 passengers. But they failed in the attempt. Following this, the coup was begun. An estimated 2500 armed forces personnel were executed follo martial for their part in the coup. Officially 1183 soldiers were convicted. 561 were Bangladesh Air Force airmen and rest were Army soldiers. Any soldiers were killed for 30, September coup. convictions in courts 1981 coup During his term of power, Zia was criticized for ruthless treatment of his political opposition. At the same time, Zia rehabilitated some of the most controversial men in Bangladesh, but he continued to enjoy overall popularity and public confidence. Supporters of the Awami League and veterans of the Mukti Bahinicriticized his actions. Amidst speculation and fears of unrest, Ziawent on tour to Chittagong on May 29, 1981 to help resolve an intra-party political dispute in the regional Bangladesh National Party. Zia and his entourage stayed overnight at the Chittagong Circuit House, a rest house. In the early hours of the moming of May 30, he was assassinated by a group of army officers, who also killed six of his bodyguards and two aides. Zia's assassination was part of a failed military coup led by Major General Abul Manzoor, who announced the killing and his take-over of the government on radio.[3] Manzoor had earlier been a senior army commander and had been transferred to Chittagong in 1977. He was scheduled for a transfer to a non-command position in Dhaka and was reportedly disappointed over his impending demotion. After the assassination of Ziaur Rahman on 30 May 1981, the then Chief of Army Staff Lieutenant General Hussain Muhammad Ershad remained loyal to the government. He ordered the army to suppress the coup attempt of Zia's associates led by Major General Abul Manzoor. Manzoor surrendered and immediately he was taken in cantonment. Twelve hours later he was executed. Zia was buried at the Chandrima Uddan in the locality of Sher-e-Banglanagar in Dhaka. Large processions of supporters and BNP activists attended the funeral. Vice President Abdus Sattar immediately succeeded him as the acting president. 1982 coup Lieutenant General Ershad maintained loyalty to the new president Abdus Sattar, who led the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) to victory in elections in 1982. Lt. Gen Ershad allotted two houses to the widow Mrs. Khaleda Zia and her two sons, one of [6] in Dhaka Cantonment. In 2010, the Awami League government reclaimed the residence, which was owned by the Bangladesh National Army. However the BNP government was not doing well and pressure increased from high- ranking army commanders for the military to take over the reins of state. Lt. Gen. Ershad came to power in a bloodless coup on 24 March 1982 and proclaimed himselfChief Martial Law Administrator (CMLA), President Sattar was replaced. He took over as president on 11 December 1983 by replacing A. F. M. Ahsanuddin Chowdhury. To improve rural administration, Ershad introduced the Upazila and Zila Parishad system and held the ‘first democratic elections for these village councils' in 1985. In an election held in 1986, Ershad was nominated by the Jatiya party, which had been created by him and his supporters. One of the major political parties BNP founded by his predecessor CMLA & later elected President Major General Ziaur Rahman led by his widow Khaleda Zia boycotted the elections; however the other major party Awami League led by Sheikh Hasina participated in Bangladeshi general election, 1986. The Jatiya Party led by HM Ershad won the elections winning majority in the Jatiya Sangshad. In 1987 Bangladesh's Land Ministry launched the Land Reforms Action Program’, an initiative to distribute khas — unoccupied state-owned land, to landless families. A noble element of the land reform was the establishment by the Ministry of Land. Ershad's regime finally fell in December 1990; however he still managed some support as he was elected Member of Parliament three times and his Jatiya Party is the second largest party in Bangladesh's coalition government as elected in Bangladeshi general election, 2008. Coup in 1996 Lieutenant General Abu Saleh Mohammad Nasim stagedan abortive coup in 1996. On 19 May 1996, Abdur Rahman Biswas, the President of Bangladesh during a caretaker government, ordered Nasim to force the retirement of two senior army officers. The President believed that they were involved in political activities with opposition parties. Nasim refused to comply. The next day, Biswas sacked him and sent soldiers to control the state radio and television stations. On noon that day, General Nasim ordered soldiers of Bogra, Jessore and Mymensingh divisions to march towards Dhaka. The Ninth Infantry Division's Major General mamuzzaman, who commanded the division located closest to Dhaka, remained loyal to the President. He directed the removal of all boats and ferries from Jamuna River in Aricha port, so that Bogra and Jessore divisions could not cross the river. He sent a contingent of troops with tanks to blockade the Dhaka-Mymenshing highway. This prevented Mymensing Division Army from entering Dhaka. In the meantime, Major General Mohammad Anwar Hossain, General OfficerCommanding of the 33rd Infantry Division located in Comilla, also came to the aid of the president. He mobilized a fully geared 101 Infantry Brigade, under the command of Brig. Shah tkram (later Maj. Gen.) to Dhaka to fortify Bangabhaban, the presidential palace. The 33rd Division was deployed, using an Infantry Battalion and a company of tanks from the 7th Horse ArmouredBattalion at the Dhaka-Chittagong highway, to create a blockade against the 24th Infantry Division located in Chittagong The govemment broadcast announcements asking all soldiers to stay at their own cantonment. After some hours, Mymensing Division soldiers returned to their barracks. The Chittagong Division never mobilized towards Dhaka. The General Officer Commanding of the Chittagong Division realized that the military coup was highly unlikely to succeed. That night Nasim was interviewed by the BBC and, in reference to troop movements, he said that as Army Chief, he could move troops any time he wanted. Nasim was arrested by the Brigade Commander of 14 Independent Engineers Brigade and put under house arrest in the Army Mess behind Army Central Library, Staff road, Dhaka Cantonment. Later the Awami League government, which was elected to power in 1996, granted him a formal retirement. Since then he has remained a private citizen. Conclusion Research suggests that coups promote democratization in staunchly authoritarian regimes, have become less likely to end democracy over time, and that the positive influence has strengthened since the end of the Cold War. ‘A 2014 study found that "coups promote democratization, particularly among states that are least likely to democratize otherwise". The authors argue that coup attempts can have this consequence because leaders of successful coups have incentives to democratize quickly in order to establish political legitimacy and economic growth while leaders who stayin power after failed coup attempts see it as a sign that they must enact meaningful reforms to remain in power. A 2014 study found that 40% of post-Cold War coups were successful. The authors argue that this may be due to the incentives created by international pressure. A 2016 study found that democracies were installed in 12 percent of Cold War coups and 40 percent of the post-Cold War coups. ‘The international community tends to react adversely to coups by reducing aid and imposing sanctions. A2015 study finds that "coups against democracies, coups after the Cold War, and coups in states heavily integrated into the international community are all more likely to elicit global reaction." Another 2015 study shows that coups are the strongest predictor for the imposition of democratic sanctions. A third 2015 study finds that Western states react strongest against coups of possible democratic and human rights abuses. A 2016 study shows that the intemational donor community in the post-Cold War period penalizes coups by reducing foreign aid. The US has been inconsistent in applying aid sanctions against coups both during the Cold War and post-Cold War periods, a likely consequence of its geopolitical interests. Organizations such as the African Union and Organization of American States have adopted anti-coup frameworks. Through the threat of sanctions, the organizations actively try to curb coups. A 2016 study finds that the African Union has played a meaningful role in reducing African coups.‘Sources: 1/ Time, Banglapedia (2006-09-10). 'Zia's assassination” (PHP). Time. Retrieved 2006-09-10. 2/ hetp://www.bangabhaban.gov.bd 3/ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military coups _in_ Bangladesh 4/ htto://newsfrombangladesh.net/view.php?hidRecord=300534 ,.ipu.ora/parline-e/reports/arc/BANGLADESH 1986 E.PDF