Glacier Change in La Cordillera De Los Andes

Evaluating Changes between 1987, 1995, and 2008

By
Erica Carcelén, Kelly Janus, and Ilanah Taves

Fall, 2017
GEOG 383: Intro to Remote Sensing
Professor Florencia Sangermano
 Introduction
La Cordillera: Water Security and Climate Change in the Andes
Climate change significantly affects water security in arid mountainous regions
worldwide. There is a burgeoning field of climate research surrounding the effects of
temperature changes on water supplies in the mountains of South America. Bolivia is a key area
of focus due to a dependency of glaciers for water resources. Water security in the area is
significantly affected by glacial recession, with Bolivian glaciers losing about fifty percent of ice
mass in the past fifty years [Rangecroft et al 2013]. Changes in temperature and precipitation
affect glacial recession patterns and, therefore, change water availability in areas situated near
glaciers. A significant percentage of the population in the tropical Andes region rely on these
sources and will suffer from glacial loss. The Andes are a writ-large example of the global
climate change phenomenon, as local ecological processes indicate variations in relation to larger
changes in temperature.
Implications for Glacial changes on water security in Bolivia
The capital city of Bolivia, La Paz, is more than 3500 meters above sea level and, in
combination with the neighboring city of El Alto, houses about 2.3 million people [Rangecroft et
al 2013]. Glacial recession negatively impacts these areas, depending on glaciers for water
resources. The majority of rainfall, 90% annually, occurs during the summer seasons in La Paz
[Francou et al 2003]. This, in combination with glacial melt from the nearby La Cordillera Real
Mountain Range account for the main sources of water for drinking, agriculture and energy in
the city [Rangecroft et al 2013]. The glaciers of the Cordillera Real supply between 12-40% of
annual drinking water for the city of La Paz depending on seasonal factors [Vergara 2009].
Predicted glacier recession in the area is projected to reduce this source in the coming years.
Bolivia is expected to be one of the most affected by these reductions in water
availability in South America due to high levels of poverty and inequality [Rangecroft et al].
Urban water shortages have the capacity to produce unstable social and economic conditions.
Water supply shortages affect drought and increase the potential for resource related conflict
[Rangecroft et al 2013]. Furthermore, predictions of continued population growth heighten the
demand for water [Vanham and Rauch 2010], adding pressure to an already substantial issue .
Objective and Research Question
This analysis incorporates skills obtained in Remote Sensing to quantify changes and
observations of the glacier regions in La Cordillera Real de los Andes in 1987, 1995, and 2008.
This study focuses on the entire Cordillera, concentrating especially on smaller study areas on
three mountain peaks: Ancohuma, Huayna Potosi, and Illimani. Analyzing three images from
each year, researchers utilize quantitative change detection to evaluate the amount of variation
over time, discuss the effectiveness of the Remote Sensing tools applied, speculate on the
limitations of some approaches and methods of change detection, and suggests directions for
future research on the subject. The main research question is: “Are the glaciers in La Cordillera
de Los Andes changing from 1987 to 2008 and, if so, how are they changing?”
 Methods
Data Description and Sources
The three multiband raster images used in this study were obtained from ​USGS Earth
Explorer ​and ​Google EOS Land Viewer​. The 1987 image was downloaded from Earth Explorer,
while the 1995 and 2008 images were downloaded from Land Viewer. Each image was collected
by a Landsat TM 4-5 Satellite, has less than 10% cloud cover, uses 30 meter by 30 meter
resolution, is projected in UTM 19S, and was collected in the month of August. The month of
August was chosen for all three images following suggestions from the work of Dr. Liu et al.
[2013], indicating that satellite imagery collected during the winter months (June to August) is
ideal for studying glaciers in Bolivia. This study posits that glaciers are at their largest in August,
the end of winter in the Southern Hemisphere. Elevation data used for comparison in this study
was downloaded from the CGIAR-CSI SRTM 90m Database, resampled to match the resolution
and window of the satellite imagery, and used to map contour lines at 500m intervals..
Image Preprocessing
The LANDSAT module was used to import images from 1987, 1995, and 2008 into
TerrSet and apply a cos(t) radiometric correction. The WINDOW tool then radiometrically
normalized the study area (523965 to 668685 Easting, 8151805 to 8267485 Northing) and
ensured the three images were all the same extent. The WINDOW tool also allowed for a
zoomed display of the study areas within La Cordillera, specifically the mountain peaks of
Ancohuma, Huayna Potosi, and Illimani.
To better visualize the images and differentiate between snow, clouds, and other objects,
a False Color Composite was created with bands 2, 4, and 5 representing blue, green and red
(Figure 1). A normalized snow index was, then, generated using the Green and SWIR bands in
OVERLAY (Figure 2). In the indexed image, high values closer to 1 represent ice; however,
water, clouds, and snow-cover outside of the glacier also have high values in these images
(Figure 2). This issue was addressed by creating a soft supervised classification, developing a
mask to delineate glacier boundaries and eliminate cloud cover.

Supervised Soft Classification and Preparation of Ice Mask

The next step required digitized vector polygon training sites for ice in the glacier regions
of La Cordillera. The MAKESIG tool was used to transform the vector polygons into signature
files. The MAHALCLASS module lead to a Mahalanobis analysis of the signature files. This
inquiry calculates similarities between the spectral signature of each pixel and the spectral
signatures of training sites. This product is used to assign each pixel to an information class
based on the vicinity of its spectral signature matches to the spectral signatures of pixels in the
training sites. The units of a mahal typicality are in percent membership to an information class.
This step took place three times in order to produce an ice mahal typicality image effectively
representing the glaciers.
Information from the mahal typicality produced an ice mask for the entire region and the
RECLASS tool assigned pixels with mahal typicality values above 0.04% information class
membership. Values below a zero threshold were used to create a boolean image representing the
glacier outline for each time period. The boolean image produced established a mask for image
differencing.

Image Differencing
Image differencing analyzed changes over time in snow and ice (using the values from
the normalized snow index) in areas defined as glaciers by the Mahalanobis typicality. Image
differencing subtracts the pixel values of one date from another to describe changes in pixels
over time. We ran the module IMAGEDIFF with the snow index value images, using the glacier
outline from the earlier image as a mask. We selected the option for a standardized class image,
which calculates the mean difference value, outputting an image categorizing difference values
into number of z-scores from the mean. In this study, difference values that were more than 1
z-score from the mean represented real change. The standardized class image was reclassified to
produce an image showing areas of no change, areas of real loss, and areas of real gain between
each time interval.
Change Vector Analysis:
A main component of this study discussed how we could use remote sensing to detect
changes in glacial consistency, even if the glacier itself did not completely disappeared. The
consistency of glacial surface ice may become softer in some regions and more solidified in
others. Changes in consistency over time are visible by examining differences in the spectral
signature of glacier landcover. Change vector analysis was applied to further explore this
possibility.
Methods for Change Vector Analysis:
CVA was applied on the overall image of La Cordillera, and each of the three mountain
peaks. Our date range for each image was from 1987 to 1995, 1995 to 2008, and 1987 to 2008.
For each analysis, Band 2 (Green) was the independent variable and Band 5 (SWIR) was the
dependent variable, to take advantage of the large separability on the snow spectral signature
(see figure 8) and see the largest potential amount of change. The typicality masks were applied
onto the earlier images to ensure that the only pixels being analyzed belonged to the glacial
regions.
The CVA module was applied to all of the images. CVA outputs change vector
magnitudes and change vector direction for all pixels measured in the same locations between
the earlier and later times. For the change vector magnitude, the pixels with a magnitude greater
than one standard deviation away from the mean magnitude were reclassed into a separate
boolean image. These reclassed pixels allowed focus on the vectors with the greatest magnitude
of change and ignored pixels with little change. The next question is: Of the pixels signifying
substantial change, how are they changing? To do this, the focus turned to looking at the change
vector direction images. These images were masked with the boolean image that contained the
pixels of greatest magnitude change. The result was a map of just the change vector directions
that also corresponded to the greatest magnitude of change.
 The change vector direction image was examined using the Histogram feature. The
histogram results were overwhelmingly bimodal. Consistently across the images, the greatest
directional changes were between 70 degrees and 150 degrees and from 255 degrees to 275
degrees. All pixels falling between 70 and 90 degrees indicated a decrease in reflectance of
pixels over the time interval in both the SWIR and Green bands. Pixels between 90 and 150
degrees indicated an increase in reflectance in the pixels in the SWIR band and a decrease in
pixels in the Green band. Pixels between 270 and 275 expressed a decrease in reflectance in the
SWIR band and an increase in the Green Band. Finally pixels between 255 and 270 degrees
indicated an increase in both the SWIR band and the Green band (see Table 2 for further
clarification).
The RECLASS tool created a categorical map of these groups labeled 1,2,3,4
respectively. All pixels were categorized as 0 and labeled noise, or no directional change.
Finally, the AREA tool counted the number of pixels in each group and Excel calculated the the
percentage that each group made up of the total pixel count in groups 1,2,3,and 4. The results
are published in Table 3.
Results
The final results of the study indicate glacial retreat in La Cordillera Real. The glacial
region decreased from 211.39 square kilometers in 1987 to 144.47 square kilometers in 2008,
resulting in a loss of 3.19 square kilometers of snow each year (Figure 3). The individual
mountain peaks showed a decrease in glacier size with a 14.18 square kilometer decline at
Ancohuma, 2.58 square kilometer decline at Huayana-Potosi, and a 4.51 square kilometer
decline at Illimani (Figure 4).
Image Differencing Results:
Image differencing using NDSI values indicated real loss of snow and ice cover occurred
along the edges of the glacier area (Figure 5). From 1987 to 1995, 12.3% of the snow within the
original glacier was lost, representing an area of 25.94 square kilometers. From 1995 to 2008,
12.2% of the snow within the 1995 glacial outline was lost, representing an area of 25 square
kilometers. Overall, 17% of the snow cover within the 1987 glacial outline was lost by 2008,
representing an area of 35.98 square kilometers (Figure 6). From 1987 to 2008, the snow cover
lost within the glacier encompassed an area of 7.86 square kilometers (10.3%) at Ancohuma, an
area of 1.48 square kilometers (19.4%) at Huayna-Potosi, and an area of 1.84 square kilometers
(12.7%) at Illimani (Figure 7). Most of the snow cover loss from 1987 to 2008 within the earlier
glacial outline occurred below an elevation of 5500 meters (Table 1 and Figure 5).

Change Vector Analysis Results:

With the exception of Illimani from 1995 to 2008, the analysis showed the majority of
pixels changed in a direction from 90 to 150 degrees, corresponding with group 2: increasing in
reflectance in the SWIR band and decreasing in the Green band. The results are illustrated in
Table 3. Figure 8 illustrates snow’s spectral signature as distinct from the spectral signature of
other land cover types such as Vegetation, Soil, and Water. It is disginguished by snow’s higher
reflectance: Near 100 in the Green band (band 2) and a lower reflectance near 10 in the SWIR
band (band 5). The results show that the majority of the pixels with the greatest amount of
change have a reflectance signature moving decidedly away from that typically produced by
snow in each direction; the pixel reflectance is moving lower in green and higher in SWIR. This
tells us that, of the glacial regions changing the most, these regions have landcover that is
moving decidedly away from the traditional spectral signature of snow and glaciers.

Discussion
In conclusion, an overall decrease in the area of glacier landcover over all time periods is
detectable in all images and individually in Ancohuma, Huayna Potosi, and Illimani. Although
in this study, the landcover type resulting from glacier change was not observed, one can make
an informed prediction that they are becoming bare soil or vegetation. Parts of the glaciers which
have not receded are, nevertheless, showing signs of change based on information from the
change vector analysis showing that the spectral signature of the existing glaciers are moving
away from the typical signature of snow over each time period.
A number of assumptions were made that shaped the methods and outcomes inherent in
this study. The snow index encompassed any seasonal fresh snowfall and permanent year-round
glacial regions, automatically assuming that the snow index includes glacier regions.
Furthermore, following inferences from Liu et al [2013], classifications were gathered from
images taken at the end of winter in the Southern Hemisphere - assuming glaciers are largest
during this time period. Some of the limitations of this study may question the full accuracy of a
visually confirmed mask. The training sites were digitized by hand producing a “best-guess”
analysis, which informed the regions classified as containing the most glacial pixels. This step
could be further improved by performing an accuracy assessment on the classification of glacial
regions in the mahal typicality. Future directions of this research would involve a more intensive
study of the area. This would include observations of more than three images of the La
Cordillera region over the course of 21 years. Additionally, researchers could explore different
ways of eliminating or filtering out cloud cover, so a wider range of images (not limited to those
with under 10% cloud cover) are accessible.
In order to fully grasp the direct effect of glacial recession on Bolivian water
accessibility, it is necessary to quantify the amount of water lost as a result of glacial recession,
and how this change directly affects access to water resources. The results above quantify loss of
mass in terms of kilometers, and do not consider measurements of depth. It is, therefore,
impossible to accurately quantify the amount of water lost in the area. Detriments to water
security in the region are further complicated by the varying dependency on the water-related
purposes of glaciers from year to year. For example, Vergara [2009] states anywhere between 12
and 40 percent of water from glaciers contributes to the supply of drinking water for the city of
La Paz. With such a wide margin, it is difficult to gauge how much drinking water accessibility
will be affected by glacier loss in a given year, which is further complicated by this study’s lack
of ability to quantify glacial recession into measurable units of water. The goals of this study
were, however, limited to analyzing the visible recession of glaciers that is decipherable using
Remote Sensing tools. This does not generate a direct relationship between the findings of this
study and water security in the area. That being said, this study is informed by research insights
[See Rangecroft et al and Francou et al in particular] that provide these correlations and further
explore these topics. While not comprehensive, this study generates an understanding of the
capabilities of Remote Sensing in measuring the loss of glaciers in regions of the Bolivian
Andes. This can be applied to other bodies of research and strengthen inferences about the future
water resource challenges associated with receding glaciers in the area. Moreover, this body of
work supports a growing area of climate change research regarding the impacts of rising global
temperatures on natural resource accessibility.

References

Francou, B., M. Vuille, P. Wagnon, J. Mendoza, and J.E. Sicart. 2003. Tropical climate change
recorded by a glacier in the central Andes during the last decades of the twentieth century:
Chacaltaya, Bolivia, 16°S. ​Journal of Geophysical Research​ 108.

Liu T, Kinouchi T, and Ledezma F. 2013. Characterization of recent glacier decline in the
Cordillera Real by LANDSAT, ALOS, and ASTER data. Remote Sensing of Environment 137:
158-172.

Vergara, W. 2009. Assessing the potential consequences of climate destabilization in Latin

America. Latin America and Caribbean region Sustainable Development Working Paper 32.
The World Bank, Latin America and the Caribbean Region Sustainable Development
Department.

Rangecroft, S., Harrison, S., Anderson, K., Magrath, J., Castel, A. P., & Pacheco, P. (2013).
Climate change and water resources in arid mountains: an example from the Bolivian
Andes. ​Ambio​, ​42​(7), 852-863.
Vanham, D., and W. Rauch. 2010. Mountain water and climate change. In ​Climate change and
water: International perspectives on mitigation and adaptation​, ed. J. Smith, C. Howe, and J.
Hendersen, 21 pp. Denver: American Water Works Association.

World Bank. 2008. Retracting glaciers impacts economic outlook in the Tropical Andes, 23
April 2008. Retrieved June 12, 2013, from
Figures
Figure 1. False color composites (2,4,5 as B,G,R) of the study area in Bolivia

Figure 2. Normalized Difference Snow Index images.

Figure 3. Change in glacier area (1987 to 2008): La Cordillera
Figure 4. Change in glacier area at three mountain peaks (1987 to 2008)
Figure 5. Change in snow cover in the glaciers of Bolivia (1987 to 2008)
 Percent Change In Glacier Cover in La Cordillera

Figure 6. Overall percent change in glacial cover in the glaciers at each time interval.
Area (square kilometers) represented by each percentage is labeled in white boxes.
Percent Change in Glacial Cover for Ancohuma, Huayna Potosi, and Illimani

Figure 7. Percent change in snow cover in the glaciers from 1987 to 2008. Area (square
kilometers) represented by each percentage is labeled in white boxes.
figure 8: Spectral Signature of Snow. Band 2 Represents Green and Band 5 Represents SWIR1
 Tables:

Table 1. Proportion of snow cover change at elevation intervals of 500 m

Category < 4500 4500-5000 5000-5500 5500-6000 > 6000 Total

Loss 0 0.0007 0.0013 0.0001 0 0.0021

No 0 0.0007 0.0063 0.0032 0.0003 0.0105

Change

Gain 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total 0.8672 0.1011 0.0267 0.0047 0.0004 1

Table 1: Proportion of snow cover change at elevation intervals of 500m

Green Band Decrease Green Band Increase

SWIR Band Increase 90° to 150° 25° to 270°

Group 1 Group 2
↑|↓ ↑|↑
SWIR Band Decrease 70° to 90° 270° to 275°
Group 3 Group 4
↓|↓ ↓|↑
Table 2: Key for change vector direction classification
 Vector Directional Changes

SWIR | Green 1987 - 1995 1995 - 2008 1987 - 2008

Ancohuma ↓|↓ 39.45% 9.66% 12.53%

↑|↓ 54.39% 53.18% 84.47%

↓|↑ 8.73% 1.39% 0.25%

↑|↑ 5.28% 35.78% 2.75%

Huayna Potosi ↓|↓ 33.13% 12.26% 12.96%

↑|↓ 66.49% 59.52% 87.04%

↓|↑ 0% 1.37% 0%

↑|↑ 0.38% 26.84% 0%

Illimani ↓|↓ 28.37% 17.57% 18.86%

↑|↓ 69.34% 29.87% 79.42%

↓|↑ 0% 1.00% 0.04%

↑|↑ 2.28% 51.60 % 1.68%

Overall ↓|↓ 32.23% 11.13% 13.75%

La Cordillera
↑|↓ 65.66% 57.09% 85.35%

↓|↑ 0.23% 1.21% 0.03%

↑|↑ 1.87% 30.56% 0.86%

Table 3: Results from Change Vector Direction Analysis. Entries represent percent of pixels
which are changing in their respective direction over each time period.