THE N'EX,TI

M- 'I-'LL'I 1-'0"'-' N' Y"_',i .E·. 'A.- .. R- •. "·, S:.,'"

,-- - _' , . ' .' .' .~ _:___:: " ... _.' ." •.. .•....... .. ....-

BY

CHARLES G,ALTON :DA:RW'IN

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Li1J'~rJ" 181 IC'''ft',1~IS ICtltaiO, IClllra Hum he,. j2 .. /13112 Pi,.' ,uIJ1;.lA~dl! '19Jj~ i:n ,i" UtJli~d' SIUlI'tll ICt1,p,n~I'~~ 1"'5'2 .. b-,- ClItJrirs IGQlt»nD',(Jrwi", fWlt,d ig ,-lIt: Dtzlt.r·d S"U'~:f

'f~1'18'iJ#ifj) "

W- .HB:NmYOD,e starts to wri;~e on 18, ~ubjlcCl, a:r whicll he has not ereo 'wolrked profession • his p'Foper procedure should beto SfY~ 'OlUt on a Ions: course of reading:, with car,efUlpI,eparatoiry aDnotad,om of all he has read, Such a course ott ,I tremendous subject' like the p,~esent' one ,migltt Ica:sily take ten ye~lI!!i", At the 'time when I determined [10. write rhis e:ssay I WIS ,alr,c·adl¥ over sixty-one, and it is safe (10 ,say 'thl:r itwloiul.d never have been wl'itrlen~ if, had, adopted, this poUcy'. Sm~e I v'ery mach wmre·d to w,rit-e it~ the oDlyaltlernadv'e seemed to he ro give 'up the idea, ,ofe13ibolalie pr.rep3!la'~o,ry I'lea,ding'" and to' make 'Om itaim m,emory' of' :31 v'ery considerable amounr of ansys,tcmalftc .rea!d.in:g'md thinking on 'the SUbj'C!lct .. A baQ:t: written in this w'ay can of course e 'DO' -dainl to' tbie sort ,of ,m"utho'ri'ty 'that nli'ght he ,gi.vlen to one wmcbwas based on ,eXh~I'Ultive prldiminary sro.cUes .. ,

, r.. ... 1:.. th b f' - €'.' ~~III'1 '.

I leJr m3t ' __ e 3" -.seOICie ,0" _' Ie:lcrenres WW. ,iBI1Y'e :so,me

Inconvenience '001 m,r readers .. 1- ", ,- .be able 'tel CJulolte some of Itberefercll,ces, 'bl'U,t mm'y of dIem I' loould DO"C:1 and, some of these ,anlo,ng the mos'c' impO:[I£a:D't~ so 'mIl:: justicewould not be' done tOI 'thesubjelct by only citing

,th~ ,SO'UICt;1 l. could recall acc:ura;t'ely., In the SI,me' w,ay,[ have g.athered a gooanl,my of my ideas fro'llllconvcrs-a,... nons ,and discussions,. in o:nIy :SO<Dle, of which ,could, I name ,my infol,rman1tl,I' ,5iO 'ma't: ther,c' apin itt is jusrer mo

7'

.P~Il.B·PAC:.E

D,:afllC none ofthem. In view of'thCIC' doubts about the sources of my knowledge, it would not be proper for me te ,claim 'any originality in the: 'views 1- exp.ress,; I: belie:ve tha.:c some ofmem :areo.rilJinal, but even with :['e;gald to these I shallnot beat all ,s,ulpti5ed; if it turns, Enl'l: rh:a..t I have been. a.Tlricip~-ted ..

1 liave reilized 'tome fUll ,thedmgers, 'ta which I am e.~Qsmg' Inyself ill D' . "me: 'elab,ot,lt'e,' p~elinlnla[y :sludies. which the s.ubJectd.eman.ds, bat from my ex: ... perienc-e· in other snbjeets I am enc'QUIaged to think du~t.litfte harm wiU 'he' done by it. The spilit of criticism i3 ':mllch commoner in the' world than the spirit of i:b~ffitiollf and progress, has ,often been delayed hy ·a1l4t:hor:s:~ who ,havereft;lSed ,topubli.sb. :tbeu' conclusions until they cDuld feel they ll-ad reaehed a pitch of certainty that waSI in flct un;a.1:tainabJe.,Prog[!e;s, in knowledge· i~r more :tapid.ly mQ!~e by ... :,. g the chance of a certain nnmberof errors, since both friends and enemies are on]ytoo· pleased to exert cheir crideal faculties in pointing out the errors; so they are soon corrected" and little h~trm is done ..

Neve[d-l~leSi I have taken all po~sible' peecautions so

t t - .' ;;.1~~ .- ." c'''''i.lI'~'~(li '-I have ,n.~;~.J' jo.""" avoid '~"_O'il"!Il!' 'b' - 0 ... 1- as, no. : . 0 'm~l€:miS~~.,;...OJ;:'. ,-,. ~;:;.;\' ro..~.I.~O ~V a vc U errors ·,tn

'0'£ prcirndFlt; ;~:Uld in' -esamples. '0. Jl· .lcitei by getting e'o~@s ff10m various,fr.iends who, are well versed. in the different bt:,mches If)'fth.e su:~J'ect1J:md :1' have certainly beel1, sia:vt~, fr~:m a s:acl,d lnmy errQ~r;; lJ.iJl tW1,way. Lese ;me:yshoul-d be thotl@;~t respomible' for O'pinionsthey :t11ay not.sltare~ I wU1prc·~a!!irv'e dleU:' :many.mity~. but I wpitld take this oppoftunity'«o thank them for 'the g;re;;u=. help they have :gi'iVen me,

,8

PRE1~AC.]5

In, composing the ess~aY' I have had th.e ciifli,aut task gf deci.ding the degree ofknowl~dg,£: 'that I might assume

in m' ':y'.'.' reader .. s, '(~f;' h ,''''1'5·' seem I.e· ·d.-: .. '~'O"'" m .', e W1~·-"S··j5. ·"0.···· ,AP. _r.. i."f .•. '. an. ·'···'.Y·.·:_·

_.' L. __ , .LI .... ~- .'_"~ iJ!!! ' ~ __ ~. ~~._. --"0- _. .... '!Iw. rw L, ",,~,,_,

thing:, on the side of explaining toomuchratherthan too lime,and I had therefore better apologize inadvance if some readersconsider I have wasted dleir rime 'by exp]abling in too much detail things with which they were aln~ady fanmiar ..

Pap: 1.31

~61 .s8 77

IV MA'ImuAt C'ONDlTJONS

'V TlD S:l?ECIIS HOMO SAPl.EIVS

Y1 CRBlID:S

roe

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]1,701 Jl,tS !CSl IIS(i

OQlJ)B~ ,iGES :SlcmN'CI !eCON'OMJCSi oouna

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A NY .... ' ... 0. NE .. ,.' w.',. 11.:_.1-_:0 .. · •.. al'.[fteJmp.,tst.'·.DI, p, .• rlcd, iet the. ,1.11.,~.sto.ry., ..•...... of .. dl,e' flnexr t1eJ1 years is a rash n~m,iUl.d jf he attempts 'to

make his fon~cas.t f6,r a century he is very p[\operly regarded as, 510 foollhtu'ldy as nOI' to be' w,o.rrh listenjng to , 'r all, ,Nev,eribel!e5s,l1 'I am,D PFoposing'heleca. do wha,t l1ULY :atppear ~n: first sig1ru:' 31 very much wHder 'dUng 51,till., I maintain that wi'm lour present knQ'w'l:edgeofth~'world. and of tbe d~dng~, in. it, 'though we cannot at all see the: detail, W,C can foresee the gcoer,a}lcour:se; its mS[lory is

,almosroerrain'to, 'take over a IOlng peri ' Ir is Icertainly

·"L't - ..l.: ":L.~ •. ~ '11!L d-· .]- d- hl-I ~

nOI'E POS;SlllJ,_e to .P[,t;U1C£ mymmg use a nerar eo _-' ,sto:ry

of the world, but ueverdielessir is now possible: to fOife~

-, .. zeod deal ofwh ~··I ' .... , ... ll.its .. ' ,.,' .. -'. ·h·:~·-' ., .. _- 'I'd'see a gCHl, ... (!:al o w at _ Dlay ca,.c irs ,cwe'''i'e, lStOry.,.·' ,0

not know wherher 'the true historian will admit that this luu;, 311yd,aUn [10 the: title ,ofhis'~ory:, certainly It could mske DO, claimwhatever to 'be ,Q( narrative iofCve,Elt5 .. :r'b: aim is far more modesr; ir is [0 ,describe' F'olngbl y the :kind, of things, rhar£' will 'be gloing' on most 0'£ the time in most pICLc-es,~

Iaoaerespeet It, ,mi,ght appear that the prlopnetQ:f t)ltii'

_.:::I'I! 'h- d ·It . .. 'h ':L.

ru:xt ,uwulonyears -1,.-1 v1ery leasy mSL:_'. Wl'r_- me :grc:lE

diffe[len,c)es of conditions OIV,er' 'the different: regions of theearthi, it is atlmoiSlr m,evirab~e tb.21C there must 'b'ea,

d al f'· ... _ d f: ] ·6·-' In' tl-' - ~ d

- .. ,_'_':1',' I •. ~ _ ,'i_ t,','_' -er- __ ',_" 1'''- '-·"'1' ,- : :1'-' [-'I ' __ ,il- - , -- .. ' "_~~,,: ,- ,-,.--- - '-I('~-

greBlt _Ct_, 0, var,u::ty m mo __ ~ 0 _' ,l_e" '" ene vast ,perlC,-=_

lof a milJjQ'nyears~md. over the gf',e'at 'expanse -,of U1.C 13,

THE NE,X,T M,ILLIO,NYEAIlS

earth, there must be an enormous variety in the happen .... ings, and it may well bes,ogrea't 'that, no matter wh'lt the prophet for,etells~ his, propbecywill be vcrified,_ ,a.'t some p,l~c,e and time, To succeed in prewction in [bis SO['1t of way w,ould nor content me; it 'wo,tdd. be :0'01 beteer than che: pl''Opbecies:ofrhc fornme-teUer~wb;O makes a, long list of mutually (oncr3ldictDry statements in, the con:6den,ce that some a,1 lease of rbcm arebouad to be verified. My aim on tire other hand is ro form an estimate ofrhe normal and net the exceptional course of the life of mankind on earth ;t10 describe what will be happening most' of the 'time'. lc is, defi1l1 rely concerned wirth 'the less exciting parrs ,of rusrr:o'ry,~ '[be parm: over wbicbch,e' hisrorian's narrative often, passesmost lighdy', because rhese parti, include Done of '[he s:tirring ,events;

whicb mike uplthe ,great crises ali history", .

[ need not say tha:t 1. recognize that this, 6 an exceedingly an~bitiolIs, pl'ogramme; probably most readers will stl"ft by regarding it as so' over-ambitious tha;t it' is doomed tOI faiiure'., My jusrificarion {o,r attempting it is that lc does appear '[:0 me: '[halt in the COutSIC of the pa_J[ lcentury" and in particular of Iquu,e recent yeaIl,~ 'mer,e havebeen sneh eaormons accretions 'to almost levery hrandl of mo'wif:dgle, ldiar DQ,W IS, :nel1ef before an essay like this, bas; bec:ome po'ssib~,e., There have 'been very' g:r:ca:c bis,toEims, in past' eras, perh-·.lp,s: greater man any we have Il,Q'W: but they simply did not poss'cssche material to accomplish mydIing' ofrhe kind, I have of course no ,cllllnwhatev,cr tOI pose MI hiseorian, and iJt is through my ether s:tu,dies ~t:1 have been ,draVlO 00 dns Ittlcmpic ,at' a ;s,yndllei,u IOf 'the vm.ous branches of accumulartin;g

14

mN'TllO'DUCTEO'N

kn.owLedge in the form of a forecas,t of future bis,tory., I have: always had a great interest in history and In the biologjcal sciences, but the final stimulus carne fr,oln my smdies in the' pbysi'cal sciences, It is thesethat provide Ime real reason for expecting thar something likerhe p['eI~nt' e'ssay may be' worth artempring, Icmay wileU be mat some of my deductions wiD be correcred b,ydt,ose who have a deeper kn.ow]edgie of the various subjects ~an any I call claim, 1. shall na'curaUy be disappom red if my conclusions have to be corrected 'or amended in whole or in pattI' bur even ifit should be' so, I hope I shall have persnade,d some readers thar the method itself is right;, tharis to s:ay dla;r ir is p,QssibJe n!OW',- widllexis'ring knowledge,&:o make 3. g:o,o,:d £"orIQca.s.t of the fu:t1lCe b:te ofthe human lace ..

To jus:tify the principle 'that we: ean mOiw what I have ca- - the average hlStO'l~' ofhumanity, I n~'l'Lst make ~ short incursion into physical science, Perhaps I hid better begin by reassuring the reader 'chat I 'shall ,only need to' explain a. few generalities .and dlar no one need fear 'r:hA'f rhere will be much filllner reference eo me ,s,ubject ,after me next three or fourparagra,phs,. There aretwo Iq uite dLffercl1r ways in w,hicb :mfcrmc_cs" and, in particular predicdcns, are made inphysiC!~, ,and, the OOD'tr,as:t between them, muse be made clear,

The' older method isthe ordinary pIOCeS!, ofcause and effect .. As an example, Newton enunciated rhe law ,of universal g;r,(lVirtatioR .. in obedience IC'O' which 110r lonly 'the :~,pple&lls to learth" but also rhemoon g'oes round rhe eardi and the earrtb round the sWL,TbispriDcipte len ....

IS

'THE NE,XT MILLlON YEA,R..S

abies the astronomer to predicc ,cncdy vhere 3llyplanct wiD a,ppear in ,tb sky tu:'-,any given fumre date, Or ag3ln

,,- 1'~ _L. d·' f Ii" dl ., 'h

tiY\'C toe ",lc's1g,n CJI' :9. con"lp,' eareo instrument; s:uc, , as a,

television set, 'The designer arranges his electric cir,C1UCS, and 'his elearollic "alVeI, in such a ·way that, if a, sp1ed.fied electro-magnetic signal reaches the antenna, [ben Icalcul ... able currents will flow:in all 'the circuits, and these will giv'c rise to calculable streams of electrons in the tele'vision ,t:ubeJ whid in turn will give i cal,onlabl,c visual 'image'., In this g ,~-era1 'ryp of case a definite cause prQ~ duces a de6nit,c ~ffect" and ifthe elfect is not' ,always, lexa, dy prcdiaabl-;,that is only because the calculations ma,y be so '1- I'cricate that the evaluation of the results is not p'racticable~, Blythole who have noe followed recent developments in s"cience,~ 'this relia:tio,tt ,ofcau5Je and effect is regarded as tIt, only way by wbicb dJings can 'be predicD_d .. for then sciendb,c prog~ess, means the ,disoovery ofy t more e ~~Ict ,effelclS produced by =;XatCt' C2U!eS" and they conceive 'mat' the cause-and .... edJec't relation is, dle sole idea in wltatis popularly, if v',I,:guely:" called '[be scilenti6c method,

T-~hi .,_1Id- in d' eed L~_- b - en b--~' ~'I! - .--,,6- f:-' ~,11111 ..

n S WOlU:'. '1_', !...,l nave -;'ee: I"roawyu.~ ot au i "

earlier .&ta,ges 'of sC1entific prio,gress all,d of all me' earlier scientific maws 'that wa:e discovered, buc a. very dUferen.t newcype of proeednre beganto lemergle' some ei yeus ago,~ which, has; atJsumed almost do,minatin,g: impO!W1cein recent times, This newel' cyp,e of reasoning is eonneered with. ,the principle of pr-o,bability, ancl i.t is anformnatd.y 'true 'that there are I, g,l'!eat many people 'to whom it: has nor yet' become fami1iar,., Theynnd lt' surptismg thatthl:- f,CSul:t of a ,g,r,~a:tDlwnbcr'of,cbmcelrm.ay

1,6

IN'TRODUCTION

-, far more certain dlan ehe resulr iQf a tiew~ Of course , bsohste certainty, of me kind given b,y the cause-and, - !feet relation, is Inc:ve:r' attained :in this, manner, 'b'u'e ometh ing ,effectivc:ly just as good does come out of it .. ,

s the number of,chances becom 5 larger and larger, the Iffeets of each si ,1-] -' event bee me less md less imP'OI[aJ1tl'311d_ they 'tend '[0 cancel out; the probability that thley will all gOI one way becomes quite negligible" :50 [hat som~dUng ,app:lioxima;uing with gr ;3:[ 3,CCUI1J':Y towards me average is ehe 'fm,al. p ,acticilly inevitable, conse1qulenci ,-"

The classical instance is given by rth _ molecules of ,3- aas. We know' ;1 certain amount abouc jhe nann ," of these molecules, and, indeed it mighr be pc'ssibJc' at' an:yr~u:e in some of the simpler cases, to; work QU't in d"ctall what hapP.cF,s, ., hen [WIOI f them collide It,og,etb.~'r" 'mough IILanuO'[ c U re mind .- y ease where this has actually been done, To do, it would he in accord _"I. ee with the old, cause-,and,-effect' physics" but in fac't it 'wo,uld, Dot he 'Vlety uSle£ut. This is because the number of m'DI'~ -

_~.-oJll~ ,; ~o "rn~:. an- d'- :&.Jt-b;'F1 CO,1'1="~1~O' 'ns' S-'O~ 'fr---~II'I'IAD-- i. th - I~ Ith' - ' iC"llL~ ." ~ _ '''~'''' , .. _:_ W,~I'JJl:!iJ', 'I i '·~"J!I;JI~c '", ,I 1_.", c_

effect: of a single: collision is Qf no' interest, but olnly the' average' c,ffeet of all the: collisions. It proves possible Ito know this averag'~ by ,9, v:ery general method, and the averag ~ can, be ·w'uod,wim OU[ , ven in,voking many ofcb _:

- .' f" ~'L • CU" "d ,~,1', 1 ull 'I ,'"

pI'operaem, 01' 'me me .,Vl,' ,Ual DID eo , es, even W' leD tnes e

prop'erties are well known .. , Th most gen=tal deducd,ons are the gas ldws, - Weh describe howthe pressure 10:--' rble

gas depends on the 'volume' of the Ico,ntamin:gvl··, and the temperature; the mos.t fam,QDS is :Boyle' s Law, which relsres ,pl',esslU"le to volume, Broyl!e's Law is

.B

17

THBNBXT MlLLION 'YEAR.S

verified 'with the g-r,eatest precision and the most

- I I.

a'bsolu·t'e I,cgu1:uity whenever it is. tested, and yet it :is:

the ,conseq uence of the 'wildly 'varying and !extn!mleiy vi,o~,mt· .co'.I.1D,io:ns b-eM'eenme molecules ofthe ,SIG:~ As, Ih3!ve said, in dlcducing ,the law it is not eVIeD. Dtecessary rOt we all rhe known properties of the moleeules; fO'f example we .kno,w' wirh some a,c,curacy ,t'he distance between the two' atoms, of an olxygen. mo,LecWe" bUlt in ,faCt this· distance p,lays 110 pare whatever in the result~ In olrtler eo derive Boyle"s La.:w ,all tha:t is reqomed is the kno·w]oogc' that rhe molecules consti:tufiC whIt are technically known as conserve,rive dytl:L'mical ,S:YSliem5 ..

For- the rese ofth,e gas .la.:ws iE is true £bat a little mere detail is, Decded:~ fOr' eXJmple there: ,Irc differences ac .... · ,oardin,g to bow mmy atoms there are in each molecule, nUE a very gr1e-a't deal -CaD 'be known about rthe bdJavioUI' DE me' ,gas with onlythe sketdues,t considerarion of rhe details of the in,dividual molecules, Indeed when a stu .... Id,eDit :fir-sten,counten the m,eo'ry lle-ading to the g,u laws. ~It Is uSllaUy ciDed. me ·tboo1ry of s.tatistical mccllanicsr-""" he is,a.tw,ays 'si~p'l"ised. at the 'veryJitde fOLUldation dUL'C is ~uWed m ordJef'ta ,cs1tablish,qllite fully and. Iogically, such an enormens sU:'pe:rsttl1Ctllre:~ 0"£ course it call never be pOSsib,l,e t-o ,met som~-thmg ot.U' ofl1,othing~, there must be a baric prin.cip'le~land this, as I have said, is 'me: condition that. the molecul!e5 are c:onserva:tivcdynamilcU systems:,., T ·'namc· .is; derived fr-om dIe faer 'ilia!' ehe tr"tal energy ,of f\V10 colliding' mob':icwes, is conserved, so tha:t it stm.yt ,COBS,taDlt ,durib,g £hIe ,coUision. hut Itbetelm itlclfhasa :W Ideeper' sigWficance 'th_lO,thjs,~thlolug,b it is,

1:8,

INTR'OD'U,CTI'ON

I -t; which can 'Dinly 'be d,eJcrilb'ed in ,technicallanguagc'., 1'[ would Involve going radler' deeply into the s'ubj.ect I explain it here; and I shaD not a:ttempt 1:0 Ida so, since , am on1!Y' citing' i.t as ,m analogy, bu,[ I musr make me I oint '[hat in this technical language me whole property

" conservative dynamical systems can be iClescrib,ed in a ingle sentence, The outcome is ·that: in statistical meeha~ I ics, unlike ,the ,older auso-and-effectmLeclla:nics, the most enormcus superstructure ,can be buile, wid, eonIdence: and cerrrdll.ry'll out ofa foundation which ~ght ppear tobe narrow ~ in the sense 'that it can be: expressed In very few words,

The awlogyl hive cited, lofcbe gas laws is rhe S,imp'llel£ 1 .~ ample tbat is flmrishe\db1y statistical :mereharda:, aJ),d it is only fair to mention d1aC'I' when 'the !j,'l1bject, is, pllrsued, further, it docs get ;1 .G'ood. deal more complicared, Thus much :g:r,eat-er difficulties aris ". incolmj;dering' h,orw til,e' gas, rem condense into at liquid. or solid, 'bu.t' il '\VOwd 'RO', "be profitable to, foUow 'the analogy into these intricacies ..

~,v,en ill such cases however, 'rho ugh dlC structure of the' molecules must hie specified 3, good dell more fullY:I' me. specification still remains ftirly simple, and y,e't it can lead to the WID,S,t elaborate ,conseq,ulcnlcel~ The gen,ual principle stands, 'rilac: in stadsrl.cal ·tb,eo,l']es qlDlc eompli .... cared results can 'be deduced flom sirnp.]e· priDcip,IIe8,,,

The intemal condition of thegas depends, asI have said., 10.D rhe molecules be~g censervative Idyn,aJDi,cal s,ynlellls" 'but there are also, ·e'x'temal conditicns .. Bloly~e~s, Law relates tegeeherthe preSSUfie and volume of the gas~, so tha.t ehe measurement of b,oth th'ese quantities, m'USE come uno the pieeure sOi,mewbere~ This dlcy !d,D! 'dJr,o'~gh

19'

TflE, NEXTM,ELLIO'N YEARS iQonsid!er,aDOnofme IcoDtaining' v,esse!" (or in size determines 'the vo,lnme ofthle glS" and 'the pllessu:re: hi 'm'e3s,ured tbrou:gh 'c'be force: exerted, on. the vessel Jj's! w,alls .. If, rhen prediaio'DJ are to bemade, or the kind yietc1led, by the methods ,of statistical me anics, it is llCCess,U)" '~O (;011:sick~r 'bom the internal andthe external condirions ..

When ,I claim du[c we ought to be able to fOl1c.scie 'the gene[al,cllu31crcl'" of ' the futW",e history of mallldnd,,1 ,alB thinking of'rltis ,mdogy,. The' Opt;,[3!:rion of 'the' laws of probabilitY' should tend 'to produce someth ing like cer,wnty,. We may" so to speak"r,eas,oI'u1J:bly hope to ,find, me E,o'yle'ls Law whicb controblbebeh,a,v]ouf ofdl0sev,er-y' complicated molecules, the membersofthe human race. and from this we should 'be able tic pr!cdia: sonllethi:ng: ·of man:'s, fu'D.l;re. It is n.otp:Q'ss:j~ble·£o, gef'lom.eibing OI'Ut of nothing here any morerhan it is'.il1 d.J e case ,of the :gas; S,g [hIe possibiliry d1ep1encls. onfindin;g' our wbetb,er there ate fOil' humanity any similar in,'£emal conditions which 'w'ould be analogous tothe condition, ,of beillg a C-OIl'" servative dyn:amicd system and external conditions amJo:g(yttS, to ,the' conrainiag vessel.Jfborh these deman,CI, can be satisfied, then 'there is rhe pro'$'peCf that a gr,ea:t dell can he £'cu'tt!cold ef the futulie lof'the human race ,ilnd this wirhclu:r' my ve:ry ciQ5e detail in 'me 'basic ,P:linC1:Flk~ fro'm which i.t IS derived.

Molt of ' the pl1ese l:t 'es5ay is, IdevO:fed '[0 dis:cl1lsling the 'various prm~~p]es: needed in, " order to make these .UU,L'" ~

di ~ tions 'b~t- II' w····ill here 'V'b:r'V b ,~ _al,y' .,~, anti ~p-~ "'" P,(,!!, -'~~l~"" c, 1"1 ~r ,ICI~UIu-~ .. ji 1- .'U! _ .. -.' _'," lr·· I~ ._'I~!~'/- ',"~.I.'C1Il'I" ~,I ... I~I}~~:_ ".,_I~~ ([_'~ [[OO'·~

,dis;cussi,QDsrhat are '£0 _ -'w., In 'rhe: gas:" ,the lextem:ai cODdiiQO,nS were given bry the cODtai'nin,g vessd.t! ,and "

210

INT',RO'DUCTI,QN

1'.3],ogyhc[ic is.obv1ow.lytbe esrrh irsel£Fro:m g'-io,logy., , kJl0'W a ,greardeal aboue tim; f()if' example 'we mo,w f.~ta~ it 113.5 bad roughly the same climate for' ,hwldredsof' millions of Y'ear~~ so tltatjr is nearly certain that me limite' will sray 'me same for one vmorc millio,n

ars,

The internal principle, which is 'to he analogous rorhe I ro'per1ey of being conservative d.y.na11li!cal sYS,t,C,DUj, ,of tll,:lrSe Iiesdeeper. It must depc!ad on dle laws gove'rning • J 1£:' nature and behaviour !of the humaa.mclecules. When I 0.l11PaIle hUlrum beings to J.n:omeeules:., dle reader ,may I'e.·] that this is 3! badanal,o,gy, 'because unlike amole e, I~ man has :6'ee willI! which makes his actions unprediet ...

h~e~ This is, far I!e$S irnportant man lni:gb,l~a,ppeafa:t' ,firs:£ Irlu, as is, witnessed by the very high degree of I'cgutar- 1,It y that is shown by such things as dlC census, returns,

'hen av,crag,ed over a whole population 'these reveal 'I rCIl,larka'ble degree of rcgulau.i'J:y in mOis't ofdle' happen~ l,lgS, 0 f life;, this applies not enl yco basic: thiJlgS, lik..e births and deaths, and uncouerollable riJJ.in:gs· tik,e Iche I~~cidence of sickness" 'bD'~ also 'EO' things in wb:ich, man ~loe!i I',egard himselfas all entirely fr·ee,ag'en't T'D take a ~I uite [trivial, ,examp;IDe~, there is considerable 'llllifo(lIUqr ~f~ the names, g:i'ven '~G Dew~bom infm'fs;" in the sense dlat ~~ can 'be foretold, wi'dl some a,ccuracy wl1at fr:acdon of .11 _ m next y,ea"r will receive each of ch,e: more fashionable I .unes, Thus thougb 1the :indi,vidual ,c:oUis~am, IDf '£he' II uman molecules may be a little Iess predicrable rhan 11~~ose of :s,as ,nla,~ec:ul~'wlii,c.b~J' as .1 have said, do nor I :we: to be considered in ,de(we:ither .......... the CeDSU!l, [le-

t fms show tbat for a, large POP"Ubl'ROn the res:ults,lvcrag:e 21

'T'HE ,NEXT ,M:ILL:EIO'N YEARS

O,U'£ wi,rh, gr,ear flCcur,lJty~, The' 'inte'm~l F'rincip]e then of me human molecules is lmmannature itself~

_ Herl~ once ,ag;ain geo!!ogy provi,des help, A study of (Dssili, has ShO'WB tha't' it r.akes, fOUg;hJ,y a million years of ,ev,o,]urio,D 'to make: a. new a,p'ecies ,ofani:mal; ,during 'mat time' theanimml is, it is true, slowly changing I' but 'the cumulative chan'gesan! so ,s]o,w mat.ir is cnly at rhe end of that ,perio,d maE the animal can b r1:gJ' ,, __ as, :udiicimdy ,aJjtcrcd 'to be: Idig:ni6.ed by a new name, This, pritud,p1e: m,il', be applied 'to matt. For the next million year,s, we shall be concerned with ,I history governed bY' tbe same human WltlU"le ,as Wig know now:~ with ,aU. its, virtues:md an in, faults, .. There lVill, it istrue, he small dow ~bmgel!l, in hum:m natureas time gOles oa, but, it is, olmyat rhe end of'a million years tbat it maybe expected to, have so Ichanged that :further p:redicdo,n aboue i'r would 'become ,impDlSsib,}e~ Tha;~' is the :(,e3.5l0D why Lhave Ie--ferried to' 3. 'million years ill the titl.c' of my essay'.,

It is worth noting that i,e is only in v,cry recent times indeed thaEthe present lin"e of ,ax,gU"IU!fi't could possibly: havebeen ,d£v,eloped .. Tim ,is true of every put of"u'g'nmenr .. ID r,b,efirst plac= it is Jess, than a ,century' since anyone: realb:~d the ,compulsive Caf'Ce of 'me ]a:,ws of probability" so that before tha.t DO ODie could have 100[1- mi:ved, 'tha:t 10 muCh ,e'ould, 'be derived&olDl such ,a., simple foundadoln~ Then :lg:riD the, act1-111 surface of the earth waSi very ulcom.p,l,etely 'cxp,lored Wl!:tU even more recent times, :&0 ~tha.t 5o,methln g qUi'Cf; un£oreseea.bletrrighc have come ,opt of its unknown regions; the' position 'of dIe walls 'of the v-essd l[o,uJd 11,0'£ he regarde\d as, fi' Y knO'Wll,.,As, 'co' the intemal l[;o.f1'dition'll h.nmm nature,

,2,2;

I'NTIl.'OD'UCTIIO'N

- Ie is even moretrue, I:" is Q1nly in 'tile lasrt 6£t:y years dUl't rnueh has be~ mOV1n3!bout the pllysiolojgy and I) ,y,cbolo',gy ,oC'me human animal. In p,ardc:ular- it is '0,01:, I,re~en £hart theprinlcipIDes, IOOOUiOlling heredity' ,ill

nimals halve' begun to- be 'Wlder,s,to'od~ and ir is: ob,~OtUS, ~ ha c thosep~[inciples must g',ovem the characteristics of ~~le human r~ice bey_om.d ill else, So until recendythere ~. 5, mowledg',e neither ofrhe principlesfI,nof' ,of,tbe data,

.~~~I ;am.g'oing to attempt '~O use in th.e' ensuing' cbl:p'r.e',rs,~ [f tbe'fewe:re no pros,pe~t _ of deriving anythin,g 'beend :1 ,sort of Ba't' ~ver,age of rhe future of hunt an luatory, , w,~w_d be ~ dull ~'~esS', but my muJogy sUJg,glel-tl, r h,lt lilt sh~uJd be pCiSSlble to, carry tlre marter 31, goold d,eal, lJr~l,eI. The physicist cm nor only give dIe averag:e state, flus gas~.but he can also, say some:chlng a'boutitsjl1utUa-

tilJ"~~'I'. 't~~,c. is, , ~~' SlY the, manner ,md the: fI1eq'Uency with

_fuchl'tH, likeJ.yro depal'lt f'[,o·m We: ay;erage'., ., -~~Ol ex-

p.bin. _this" Stlp'f!ose' 'char a s,am1J]e of 'me molecules is IH:riodically taken 'OtU: of 01:18 corner ofthe vessel, s,ay Illy trapping some ofrhem in ,aliede box", The uumher ,of Ino.]ccul,d, in the 'box should be in a £ix,ed, pf'oportl!on of 'he total U.Wl1b,(!,[ in. 'me: v,eJseID" and .i'c will uev'er be far' fll'Q,m it, hu,t sometimes, the sample will have rather 'tiO~ ~nmY', and at 'OdU:I times r,a..eh.er too few',. 'Furthermore the sample ,ma,! vary in odu~r ways; for exampI,e i,IE l'tlay

ometimes he hotter or loolderrhan clle :I,as in 'me mlmn ssel, These variabilities are' wlul' censritute the' BUC'[Ill~-' Ir]~nJ ?f the. g~s~_ and tbey can actually beobserved -by uJ'rably dcslgnled experimenrs .. TheYC3l1 also be calcut eed, a",ga;in withDu~knO,'wing much about the in,dividual molecules, SiO, duu it is; plogible to, say wha.t varia;tio,ns, a!

THE, ,NE:XT MILLlON YE,ARS will occur, and how often, they are likely to, recur,

i though it is not' at all ,possible to predict when they will:

O'CC:U[,. In the same w,ay it sbould be possible to got- some idea of the fluctuations of human history,. which will lend a variety to the dead Ievelof the average, Indeed, theseflucmarions will be far more p[,ommen:'t: III bum~ history than are those 'which are observed ina gas, far the reason 'that; prolp,ortiolla~ely speaking" fluctuations decrease as the total number of molecules increases, Now in rhe course of a million years there will have been a very, great' number of human beings, but, even so it is incomparably fc'werthan the number of" ' coles, in even qui,te ,3, s:mall vessel, So 'me fh:u:tu_a;riolla ill human history will he far more prominent than the

fluctuations ina. gas. .

,Much of what will happen in 'the future can, be read fro,m consideration of the past, but therehas on '[he whole beeu iii. tendency f~r historisns, apart ft'om their .primar.l fimction of recording the pas,t, to be interested not so much in, resemblances as in differences. They have tended to emphasize the difference of structure of me' ci .u.u' ~"'~' tlQIlS of Egypt: andBabylon, rather than to point hu:w'much more alike: they' were" th.anwas either to' cOll'tempoJraty berbariem of Europe .. A d.istingu,isbed. exception t,Q this has been the great work of' '.1.'.1[. .Lll'VJI!.U, Toynbee, who has studied 'what might be called' Natur.al Historyof Civilizations. This, is au" . ,.'. '.

finerproject than any .I am competent to attempt;" but '. aoes adopt a similar line of thought, that of'de ..... p'l·':".:IbI,;!,~,P";J;; 'whether' laws em be: laid, dOlfm" from wbl,ch the ofhumanity can he fon!seen~

24

I

IN TR.,O'D 'U CoT I IO'N'

,

The plan of the pre-sent work follows in a general way

r~ I' ceurse ~u,ggested'b'Y the mal~gy I have b.een drawing'

r mphy.sics; though there will be no further :refereuce , Iithis'·'sou~ce'. In the next chapter the subj,ect'is. popular ~on. This is themost £un.damental'qt1es,tion of all, for if ,t here were 110 human beings, there could be no human J ~ i ~,to~y. T~en there are two ch~lplters, dealing with what ~ have called the external conditions, '011e of these hriefly I~views ~ast ~tory;, its aim is '[0. mend~11 only

I . ,ft~dam'~tally llnPortant' ehings, those that one u l~h1t Imagme .. wocld be noticed by an historian of I

t',tLlli?~yea:Is lienee .. The other deals with the physical t ndirions 'that may be expected 'to prevail in 'the world,

hen there are ~e,~ chapt-ers dealing with what in my IJ'1:alogy I have' called, the internal conditions, These ICOD...; 'ain a discussion of what appea~ to beehe chlef'CJ.uili:rles 'the' human animal, iJ:l so far' as, those qualities are ,I kely t,o help his survival in the ,5tfl1:,8:g'le for life,., In ,the I'l'r,~t oft1~em .. he is r,e~ardecl, ~ a wild animaljust like any her'. animal, and I consider the qualities which will 11 lp hin1.fro~ that ~oint of view.,_ The n~xt: ch~p'ter' ,.is ncemed WIth me' influence' of his social q- ualities, in

Il"hh' d-fr.. -

, mcn ne is :50 difierent frona., other animals, The 'third

I·. devoted to. settling the balance between the iufluellce,s

Ilis~usse.d ll~. the ~revioustwo chapters, and in particular I~' ,the consideration of whether man is I, wild or a tame rl ilna1..Afte~ .. this ,there ~e ~o chapters dealing with matters of a slightly less ftmdamental character, though

I hey are much too important to be omitted. T,lle first ' amincs the ,effect of the limirariou of pop'ulations,

, 1, h as rhar which is being experienced 'at the present

2- 5:-

-- ,

THB NEXT MI.LLIIOIN YBAR...S

'tim,e in many ,of the countries of wes:tem Europe .. The second eonsiders tbe hl'tcresting. ;if less i:m.port.mt'~1 q'u~ non whether man, in his perperual striving a£rer happiness, is at all1likely '[01 ,achiev'c it. In the final.~' ·pr'er: I attemp't a synthesis of all '~esc 'things, in. tb~ ~orn:' ?fa fQrea'~t of the history ,of the fu.ture~ It 18 divided into

sev,er, I sub-secnons, each of which deals widt 'ODe of 'the

main asp'ects of human lite" , ,_ . , _

I ha'y,~ attempted _'~o :u:r~ge the w~ol' ,es~ay o~ _~ p,lm, that all dle: earlier c~apl'cers, should_lay Ido~, p~-

dples. and that the final ~apter. sho~d con~.~elI ,applica'rioDsl '[0 the actual hist'ory. In laymg the ~r~~lpl __

- h .. h·' - 'b' -. 'lCI",' eQ~n'v '''0- pre£'A'At a good

down :' oweVe,E""i ,Jt .1 IrS, :Ieen I ~. ~~.~ J II., . I _ ;;.'!1~ ,', I' .... -

deal of detail in, orderto explain and t· lllus.trat. Ith:e~

,- h licaricns v ill" I b

50 th It in £i'let '. good ,many 0 . t _~ mpp 'can~m, W' - _;.'"

fbund in th.-' earlier Ichapters., I fear tha:ttb.ls may be mcoD,v,emm:t in some cues b -Icanse 'such illustratiom often have implications over a wider £i (!II than the prill ciple: immedia,tely concerned, an~ thus. the. :r~a\~e~ ~'~ be left 'Widl the feeling that the discussion us'~nlenm . • - _. . 1_·.- In _1. . ~..,- ~ 1 ~L... p. th om·r:efo· I~e [ have

mcom,pl.u:te~ .. we WllU Iwap.. r . ~' .... __ ',,'

te'wpeed 'to gather tllese threads together, a~ weU ast fuI:fil my maiD aim 10£ makjn,g the' fo,recas't' of the ::~'''''_'I",,". bislory of the Eu'ttu, ..

,:Before developing myargllmCflts., ,'i·:t ~y be well . warn 'the: reader 'rhart rthe tOomequences, lam fo'rc~d i . Ided~ce' will be: found exceedingly depressing by all . political and social standards 'that ,are n,?w ,curri~rt_ I ,Will Dot pc-fhaps be quite- tnl_tha't his:~~ will '~nothm:g bur .' record of th. crimes ,an,d foUt ~s of'hu

:2

INTR'OD,'U'C'TIO'N'

I' - ~. ql"" but it will be much mor -, lik flU1'£' dlan lik ~

th utopia5.~for the most' part 'be it confessed, the r · ther depressing ut,opia-whidl have been expound d Ily all the l,dealists., If'ilie world is inevitably 'to be so

iuch more dr,eadful a, place than current thought exI '1' wouJd it nor : [haps be be er ·.'0 fo:[g,e't tbe: fact d simply go 'on Iiopin,g?' I do not think so; if we are in,g in a fool's paradise it is surely 'better tOI know·th

. t. But [1 'matter go_ fu.rclr~r d_ r 1 dus; for we cer-

inl y can do sOlmethlng to c -,ntroldle world around I ' t and if we can appf xiaee the' limits of what is p,Q,ssibl " , e may have some hope of aclU'eving our' aims" whe'l"e3s III our; aims, at outside possibility, then we are doomed

failure. Therefore it i- apr, ,c1ricilly important :tbin' see clearly any law which must set absoluee lunits t bat it is possible to d .

A parallel will m tW" _,,~ ter, 'rbi' - j. ... b'

-lUury the sr te of knowledglc of m _ chanics w' s v ry nperfect and many inventors devor d th ic tim _ tc I Ulg to invent ways 'of making engines, S '. ,I ropr "",",

ide power for machinery" There was no kn own limit l what could be ,att.ained. Even though it had .,In!ady ~ n ,8!dumbrate-d tb r the P'tfJJttuunl ,rllobil~ was uor t ssible, the p"rin,cip,l, was DOC understd at :Ill exactly.

Id an inventor might not Wlrcas -,n bly at ha,t ti c .

JII re fc :lrttht tb'CIe' w- no Juni[ at all t ,wh r he "ght ~l 'PC to' achieve in 'rb. - way inventing aJ t'l8me·. hna,s,t' exactly s huadred years ag the situation I I anged compl t'elyvv"hen me laws of thermodynamics ere formulated:; 'these laws set' very precise and a'[],s:olutc nuts on wha't is attainable in an Icn,gine,. At tha;t Stlg:c

"7

'THEN'BXT M]LLION 'YBARS,

me optimistic inventor, untrained in scientific priDcip'IDes~, :012Y' have felt dla:r the w,o,:[ld ha.d-Ipsed,;; w:ha."t ,." . the" use of his going on in a world mOS[ to ,ill ideals, " ' world wbich insisted 011 a dreary lUli£6,rmity wirh hope idl;at .luankhu! would rise sup'erior to tbedcadertin,s requirements IO.fcl~u~ maws, of mechanics] For. him it ,,_.' .. '_ .... ' ... , have 'been a 'bad world., NOit 51,0 for the true: engineer. He no,'W could, .mow just 'what '\VilIS p]ly.sically , .... !iiI!'~>Il.,'" ,,tIl,,,,_ and could set hi'mseI£ a rargetthar was :accually , able with the sUI,ekn.owle!d.g;e tha'c he might 'g"",J!,.!!.,,.; ... sQ,nlc:th'in,g' 'towards it, Through 'tb,e recognidon of I!.I!!J· L"'ii!'!i;,r

b 11 Iim . ~ h h d m .

,.1_ SOlute: ! nnnanens on 'W cat .~e can .".10 " _~e eogmeer I I

ha:t ,a better, not' ,Et WO'lse" prospe1ct cf clom,g go!od~

Can we not draw &om this parallel theconclns .. ,"" ..... _ ,t:h~~u: if we mow me limit of wb'at is ,Possihle for human ity~ ihro- I IdeterntiniDg some :kio.dof laws of 'I;,n' ou.' Ui~ thennQldym.a:rmalc~ we :sh3LIIi be m,lon: slua:-e-SlfDl in ~', V'J I!.I!IA~ goed in the wlor'ld" Ithan if we recognlze no, limh:u:ions :Il}d S,OI ue plerp.e'tu,aDy struggling to achieve what is, , :fict q uire iln,pos&ibler laIn ,gont;g ir:orry'to see wh'lt ,",""" ~',,","""," of these laws, IOf human 'thermod:ynamtes, are; IDE 'I..I'_'~"'" wey cann,QI[ 'be' expected to' have: [the hIEd ou'cJ:i'ne 'tbela-wl of ph:ysicaJ. science, 'bu~t' s,'tiD, I ,miuk. some ' them ICIl'L be ~giVlell. a fairly debtee forn1~m,ltwill be ' others, more :ski11ed in. biology than I can claim to bel pu[ecc, or pcra"l:ps to correct, these' ,attCmpt:sr.ha,t shill be' mak.in,g~,

.II

P'OPULATI'ON

, =-'I...1JfE central gu idillg thcmer1un: must' fLUl th rough all considerarions of history is the q uestion of popu--- 1~"riol1j and there is :3. difference here b,etw'ciell fUMe 'l'lis[ory and pUlr hiseory.Jnpasr history the people W'C[lC Itlcre and, me histerian warches what lihey did; in timtuI'le III inary be has 'rOI s'rafE Vlith the :more 'basic queseion of wha;( people will be' there. The question as 'co which lcoples survive in, the' wiodd durlng the march of the I I .cs isfundaJDen.ca1" and 'Must o-verrid,e ,all qUleJtiO.I1JS ,IS J." whether fo'rurc' man will be bettee OI'WOISle chm present mm,OI,r whed1er he' wiD rise 'CO' he( . Its, 'we: cannot

oaceive or sink to levels we: should, despise, Tile fW1d'aUlcnta] questilon is survival :md 'tins must newer 'be forI etten, but by :i:rslelf it is, !e.qti['e,ly wu,ldsfymg,., because WI~' do wanr to make ju ments of qualiry about our 'I l s)clen.dant-s~ In this chapter then I shill first of ,aU deal with generalquesrions about population" 'but, towards irs,

'lid, 1 shill rum 'IjQI some ofrheseIureresdng questions of lua1itY'~ lr must be insisted, hOWIe"V1eI', that dlDiUg'h rth!esc It .. 'vem,'uch more appeal ch:an hal: [he~ fa,e! of S'I.lI'V'.£vall! ~heY' are secoiodary to it, 'because i:t is ol:nly dle races that Ilb1rviv,e 'cha'c make ,the hi,s'cory.,

It Is alwla.ysneoessary...__,md,it is indeed, quire S~ J rismglydiBirult~to keep in mmddl:~t 'the fundamental 201

- #

TH,E, NEXT ,MllL1I'ON YEARS, qwiliqr pertaining to man is, noe Ithat he should be -,,'''''''-'''' or 'bad" wile or stupid, but men:ly Iha'£he: should ' alive md not dead. Therefor,e the fitst thing mat Ill," be asked a.bout: fcru:re man is, whether he 'v.Tj]} be :. and will know 110W to keep' alive, and not whether it

a good dililg char he should 'be alive, WhledlC[, we tIns; fact 0,[ not', it has the advantage of providing Dbje't.i~e basis £0:[ the study of futWie hi,sltory., simplifies dUngs at gr,ea~ dca] because it elimin3!'tes <,' I ' of the danger of our forming p[i~udicecl Judgments. There may 'be endless; arguments 2S to wbich of individuals A or: B is cbe more estimable member a iOo,mmuni'ty; tastes ,differ and. agreement may never' [(.mcited., Bur there Is, a far berrer chance of :ag:[I~eml~n[ 10,0 the brute quesnon of'llmch of the is lik,ely [01 survive, whether i.t is, mplcrs:oD, or thro " his: IQiSp,:ril",g, or hy creating a successful politJ' for Ico,mmuuity. These' are objective judgments, and so are likely to be frc('!~r anyhowuiueh more nearly -from tbe prej udiees, whicb Dione ,of us can help when it' is a matter of Dlaking subjective ju:dgmen;,' about human 'val ues,

Tbe ,Pirlm_,ary question men arises: what arc' the Idi6om,~wlDth de't,crmu'lu:;wbedlef a man will survive no't'? III 'me: ease lof lDimils" cherie is a grear varietym rhreats that det!elmme their survival, Some are Q,1.!.!~""'Jfl"''[; by beasts IOlfpr'eyl' some by parasites, some 'by =,c~ esruences while some whole races ofanimals have been d~Il'O-""''' by cacasuophles1, sud] as the submergence of land ,~Jt''''!!i!!!., •• the I,ea.; bur all withou.t exce,p'tion are 3;ubj,cct t-o o¥l!rfidi118 ,condition, the dangler thlt they may DO'f

3:0'

PIOPULA TJON

I lugh to cat. This gives rise to yet anomer threar to the t:val, of dlC: individ,uil animal, the co',mpttitioD beI \( en 'me dilferenc_ members of the same sp'f!cies for

In ite-d sup'plies of fOold .. MilD can rise 'superior to most ehe threars that ,;Jieet the' rest ofrheanimal kingdclm;: 1 call dominate [he largest and fiereese beasts of Pl'ley,~ has already Ieamt bow to, cenerol mos,tof his para-' J t "5, and through medical science hie is, even learning tw' tel control rhe most deaclJy of all, dlC bacteria ,of d~~c'3.se; while ifhis 1~1,d i's drowned under the sea he esn I - ship and s.31a,away~ There remains for him one eonttltion that he still shares with the rest of the animal k~llI,gdom as a perpetual menace 1[0 his life~ and 'mis is the ned of food. Here a.g,ain '[here arises 'the competition Itf' limited ,supplies,. wheeher it is B, compeddon be:twle. D e 111m mId man, or between D,acion and nation", and, fO'f' I ulnanity this competition ,aSSUlIU:S far greater impor-

. nee thm it does for ally ofthe mrlmae:l' jusrbeeause, ~Inlike them .• he has succeeded in o,vercoming sommy ,f his other enemies. It is this, competition ,that will I~ ·"terzni'11C' the detail of bis,tory., in the sense 'rh:J!t it: . :U determine wru,clJ men and w.hich races will ~survive.;; ~I at deeper 'man this 'iliac lies, tbe question of bOlw ,the: uvivers ~e to keep ili,v,e:t and the fmal CO:D'[lolling ndi.tion {cu· 'dns: is ,[heir S,U., Y ·0'£ {oold. Ic js food

)1 , • th .JI d ,. - , I 0:1 f'~' d

I, aat Ui_:'_:Ar!' ella-eternun,es t re population or ',- l:e

orld.

During me pur CJen,'tury many Mirlerl have discussed the question of p'o'pulatioln, andwley have n~ururilly been l hieB:y coneerned 'with the conditionaof 'the p,feseJ1r~ 311

THE ~.EXT MILLIO'N YEARS I~f the recent P,ait ,and of dleimmedia1te fumr:e'. , ..... ",.",1"_ ~O'~~~~I I ,a~ not. concerned vvith a century or ' hut WIth a million years, and for rIlis it will suffice eo back 1'01_ ,til ~- t?UDd~[ of the study ,of ,po'p~,d~n,. '

hUD!~ ~ li.fiJ: y~~o Makhus wrote Iris EssdY R"pulatJou 1D which he drew arrenrion to the oonBict

be'~eeJl hl~-h-llaw' of biological increase of the' hums ~ IP:ces w-·_ c -- is a geometrical progression, and 'the 1a

ofmcreas in ~e area l1nde~agriculrure which can only ,~oughly :speaking, be an Iltj,dlmerical progression. ,,"

~~s~ al_~;ay~ be o[l't_[un]ti~g his food supplies. Maldlluhimsd£ and olthers, atiter him, 'tried '[01 devise w,ays ':, lescap~ fro.m_ d~i~rlea~ b,at ir has .n,e~ =,r 'been reaJ1,y di p~sed!,. IO~. ,and lit h~sl. only escaped the pried, ,'. . .', "

,at~en~on ~It~es'erv"d throu - h the accident 0'£ the 11isto~ 0'£ 'the ttinlS1.J enth cen;rury., It was verified that 'd1~' in ere se in_p~pulati!an tended d~g that' period '[01 b ., geomc:m,cal PI'Ot~~lession. but ·th ' dc'veLopmcn'c lof the New ~'orl:cl,1and the establishm,ent of railwaY's ane steamships, to carfry its. products ro 'the 'OId WOI~ldhad 'tbl unfOIIi seen consequ - -- ee tba'[ fo,r dle, best nart - ~f ' century dle cakivared areas coukl in, rease ,at ,_-, r'tl~ ~:~_~ ·~er'th~ dl=, populadon. M:alihusJs, first prin.ciple ~s sb~wn t~' be. correcr, ~~~ his second was vitia reid by rh . ,_w~~e CXCC?t1onal ~~'ndi,nons of the nineceenrch ~, -',r-ury;. ~~i ,,~r~, l~' p,:roba.bly ~ow nearing its end, and th diffi:adae-s, he expounded must be fae'" d.

_ There are no doubt many who are, not familiar with rh~,_argnmen;:'t of Malch:u5;1 m,d so it tnay be 'well to de sal~e ~hOI~'_I't ,w,o'~ our D'Wl1erically~ ,His first b.yp~ - thesis IS tItar ther,e is a natural rare of increase £01" auy

3,2,

P,QIF"UL ,TION

ei -9 ,ofanim,' " :~anld if one dUnks, fo,r lexatllpJ,e 10.£ a 'CO" I, educin g one calf ev,ery yl ar for say five years,. it D1S, a verY' reasonable hypthesis.. The rate certainly ri -c'1 'very mucll £r'om one species eo another, and the ease is restrained in nature by all SOII[S of Ichecks, me

• luef of which is :stlolrage offoo,d, but Malrluls assumes hat far mY' species there is a natural rate of increase Inch would operate in the absence of these' checks, We

; I _ estimate fairly well wha.'f (his. rate is, fO.1t ,humanity

I y the experience' of 'the lase - 'cury in these islands, tor . luring that time the main checks on natural incr ~3S-,

re remo,v ,d thr - lugh tb~ importaeion offood and, Im ... , ved sanitarir n. and the population, was quadru:pl~d o 'me oetttury .. There have' b encorresponding mer au es 'U1 nlalIY other c01!Jl1:,tri~s of Europe~ Asia and Ame~u:a , bu,( nO'E all om quite 'me same scale, so I. will t~, a

utious esti_m!~l'te and, assume 'that th' ,-,'nIcal rate of 1 rcrease for ma is th,31t be 'sbould d,oub,l- his numhers tn a. century .. It m y be mentioned cha't these estimates re all WId! belo _ some of d-Je val ues, that Malthus him .... ,

I -' f·- q' '0: '0. 'II"~

. , J. """'!on:!I'~

Now look ,_ r tlle adler' side of 'file _CCOUD't'., .'he' ~resent food pf\_,d'IlCI~_i011 of the 'w'odd is, roughly about

Dough to feed dlc population of the world:;, this, is almost a truism :for if 'thule W ,.re D'O'I enon ~11" me. ex ... ~SS' -opuiarilolD would, have ro die, and, i d;cre we' " '., ;"0

- uch, tbe excess food would 'limply b wastlcd". If the

D'tural increas ~~ of popl11;.,t~on is to be' met, marie foold will havefOl be produced, and this Call h: done to some ent hy improved &rming and 'biy 'b1r.m,;ing mere 'Imd ~!lro ,cultiva'ti,ou,. Thereis nothingunreasonable in sa'ying

c 33

34,

THE, NE,X'T MILLION YE - ,BoS ma,!: the Food, p,roduction 0'£ the: world could be .. _ ....... - ..... or ttebl d; but ir is ra:rher har,d to see bow it (I 'DId raised more than ten times OlD the present methods agricultun;. But it is very .p,:,ssibl,t!, that these me tho could he' imp,rovle-d, our of:aJl knowledge, and foI' ,p'r,es~t argument I am quite r~ady t"o grant th~t the fo . production .of d1e w'orld could he ~,eased a, "_ times above its p,'esent level, ::-Vf:'-[1 'mough I do not b Iieve i't possible" But ther is no need to st~p even ~ .. '-- ...... : fur tber- is 'the" as,l area of the ocean" which .' . exploit at ,aD, -: t pr,esent .. He~e., ag - in I do, n~t,bel.~,eve ': any enormous mcrease could come our of the mteml. --'. ~ . ~ r- ...:'l btL' r th·· -_Il_'e of , .. L.- ~'''gwn-- ~ID1I"jI,'r cwtIVatlon 0 'We, sa" .oU. "10:' ,~" w' cu.' _. __ ~'!i,

.m ready to grant it, and, to take ,a ~?I'e beyond anyon _' is Ukely to 'think pOlSib~, II' I will - ssume mat"

'total foad ,pro,dluctiQlil of our p:lane,£ mig:ht be ......... 1 -""'.

'times what it u now. _

NQIW b~g: tit se two sets ,of £igurs 'togi~th'r

population is .c:loub~d. i~ a ~tury, _it is. only, three ·

.. ,11ali cennmes be£o.re u: will. be' ten nmes 1 . " .

n~b r, ,aDld this,wo1uld ,eXhaust, wh r I hatye ..... !l.L~ ... "·~;-1II

,IS m.e p,ossib.ilities of the ,existing syst:ms of &eeping on at 'th . same naDll",al r =_te of ~a;eas~, th '__ ' btiorn will have mer-as d a thousandfold-' m tell ,turies, :aI1,d even if new agriculruc:al me mods sho~d', ~ mit 'me pro,ducQon Q~,.' tho'n~·md '11m =~_ Im~ch food :8i.t pres' - ne, there would by tb,en s~ only bejust food, eo sappan the popula:ti.on. ADd I thousand, yeat I

"Th .. ',. ui"L.me'Elc of the· e calcu1lriom is sbllpli6ed, b"

, "... ,1j;.U . • b hich

tlul,d,QubHq . Dum"".1t dmca mul.dp,licslt .y 1024, W·· Ie

,r~ll:dy I, Ibo,-. d.

P'OPUL,T'IO'N

I ,_ort p,e;riod ,eV,eD in chiC :s,pan ,of,known p,asthistol.ry. n . quite~ irui.,gc"ifi,caD'r' when Ic,o'Ulued on 'the scale of' ,I 111,lilian ylears,~ Again, a ,p'o'puIa.ti,?n, 'that has: a natural of increase of I. thousandfold in a thousand YICUS", . ll increase a milliolnfolld in 'two 'moWland yean, and so . th= end of tha:t' rwe 'chousand years, there would be d of 'm,- ImO,rDl'OUS, q'lWltilty of food ,of a, million ~. ies the present amount. It is evident that no Increase ';~' faodpr:oductionf however fan,t:asticallyimagined. ,old CO'pl~ with the ,nartmal increase of mankind, fQf ~ Ire thana ve ry small fra.ction of a million

. . rs~

The wholle u,lumm,r is' hardly ai£ectec1l,cv'eB if £h,_, , rural fl.-·· of increase has been mUich cver-esdmated, l~ough _xp-'rien,ot' is all ~gainst ,lr·t sup'po,se 'tha:r :the u 'toral increase' of mankin,d, wlould double 'rhe popw..~ D in a, :tb!Dw,and .,ears :ittsr,-ad of a, hundred,. 'The ,only' act w'Ooldld be dlat iEW,ould 'ta~- 'tweD'Ey' 'rholusmd ars ins'tead. of rwo thousand fo,,[ the popul don to

.-~ ·'1 ~ -'IIt:"b ·I~· d' -- ~l. - - d

I 'wllP, y IfScu '·.1 a mOl ~ ~onJ' anc nvettty 'itUousm_: years,

~:11 h d . ., A, m',1

:' , I,tu . '3 very snort span COmpaftL to ,I., :-- , . non 'Years,- AU

I -c=£g'ur,=5 ilLus:tr,atc the :~-,eD -r,al principle:" :fimiliar to . e mam,emarici-- .. ~ which may 'be ,expl:ressd, cello',-' "ally hy saying that .it is qUl'te impos!dble :fO.f' any ·dunetical pro:c ,]~ssion 'to :Bgb,t against . geom,c11Iical.

THE NEXT MIL,LIO'N YEARS important one which ,will be examined later, is pfesen wirh us now, 'but tOI ,1 quite preponderating extent th rule has held in the p,a;s'[, and there is levery )jk.,e'li hood that it : ill continue Ito hold. Tbe 's:ttaightforwar:_ W "Y ef sttiking the balance is 11- rure' 5, method of,crea,tin· an ,exoess ;Ilnd then killing it offby p']ague or starvation. Malthus hjmse1£ and oth r 'In' _ recent wrire,rs ds~ have anempt ~d to propose' solutions which ilio/old allo - ' ns 'to, cs,cape fro'm 'rhis 'thre:a:t" btu: nobody has found 0, ~ which isa.t all convincing, It fellows that in the V~,,' long run of a million re'axs rh .. ' g'fneral course' of tu,ture hist- ry is most of ' the 'time lik-ly EO be what it has been fO'f me , t IDfpast time, a, eoneinual pr, sure ofp'opulatil" on its means, ofsubsistencc, with a margin of the pop -',.non unable to snrvive,

There i nOI escape from tb (act of the finiteness 'DfIbamount of food -that! 'the earth, c'ould produce; b'UI Malthus- s first hypothesis dl at there is a natural rate '.1' increase of man, is much, more likely to, be ques,tionea. I may 'be :a11 Q,ver-simp]ffica.dOll, totake the rate ,~,fixed. but it is bldisputablle that ani mals, giv'en fav:ourabI,e con didons, do, rapi,dly multiply tOI £ill rh e vac-mt spaces the . oIld~ The same bas been '1I'UIe olf the :ratber '. '.,.. .. "'ro~ __ ,

bre . -,dmg, animal man" and it bas bee n confinned by , Iast c ntury, w'hm for a rim 'the thr at of food ~""""L

d - .' l' d d .... 'L.! "' d

w,al r,'~-move_, in some Clc·W1trles,~ ~D __ ee· .rms perla· '

ha'd'the curious consequent·. of all, owing peopllc 'to ,[('UI·.-j get Mmlthus altogether, since the inc:~'eaJe in ,._ mr,e cUlts'tripped the human late of ina-lease for time. and so drew ;atten;t'ion . way &om the: problem

populadon,

POPULATEO'N

OUI' insight into the matter has further been confused l y the fact that at the present 'time we arc' threatened ith a decr,easmgpopula.tioll in England, and indeed in

11y ofthe countries inhabited by the whiee races; chis I ,_ very important phenomenon indeed, and it 51'·· ems to I noradlctMaJrhu5'-s princ[pl!es~ Ill: will b, ' th 'subj .. IC[ of , later chapter, ut the matter must b r garded on a

rld-wide basis, and not just as one of __ ' !rr,el'll _ ,'E.lro,p'c r NOI[th America and anyone who has for example, tsited India: will g -t a v'ry diIfer ent impression and one which is juster, Thus not long ago theprovince of Sind "3 S mainly desert: rhe ground was quite fertU - be t there

'e ' no ,rainfall ~.. ··rea,t engineering und rtakin ; the

ukkur barrage, has spread [he waters lof the I[ld.US over . very wide area, and turned much of the desert inr a arden, ,Acoolrd.ing t, the universally accept d 5t~ dards his was a g,rea:r benefit tothe world, for it made, possible du~ adequate fe,edi-ng: of a people previously on the verge f srarvarion, But things did not work cur Iike that, 'or fter a. few years the' effect WM only 'to have ,I. larg;e I umber ofpeopl ' on rhe verge J starvation instead of a mall number. This is not the place to rais the maul issue of 'wberbter dle worl,d is the better for having idle ukkw: ban age orn [", (['IO'l _ tb poiat of _ i w ,'. pu~ cion it has, had the effect ofincreasing somewh t the lready great importance f the contribution oflodia to' he population 0' - the w - rld,

It lUUSJt be accepted that the o,bj ective fac'c' of survival s lUOI,e fimdamencal than ,:my ,q uesrionof the ,quality of the surviving HIe, good ,or bad, and this C nsideration ives a colour 1['10 some ofdle happenings 0' pase bis'to:ry

31

T H-.c-E, NE----:X T' M·~1If L,'··L'·l·O·· ....• ' N.'·- 'y', '.11? A.,', ,,'D,· .• , ~

'_ ._~ _"_ , _J. _Ji . "_-J',- _" .D ~~

which is mther different from the co]o~ in which they; .have: often, been presented. 'ToillUS[f,ate: the point I will takean e~;xampLe~ W:e areall shocked when we read, ac-

f" - L = 'Id'i '}' 'b' inthef ., f" ... 1. I

,f:Q'l1.n''tS ercnue ,a01llt" mtne IaCtorl,es, '0, we ear. ,r nine-

teenrh century" andwe can all agr:e~ that the conditions in i11aD.Y of the factories, were terrihle'., Bur how did it comeabout 'tb;;t, as soon as there were factories needing labour, 'the children 'w,ere there to undertake it? The; most reasouable explanation is dIal: in me previous generaeioasmose of the ehildren simply bad. to die inin-: fancy I and that itwas the factories that saved the' lives ." me new gen:erations~ For' long ages dIe world, had go:r used to a 'Very high dea..th rate of infants" and took it for' granted: ,that this was an inevitable In VI j! 01Ld now sud~, ~-- ", s: d '",,'t_ ","1L '1 -. I " . c'vmy.lt was XOUll~=wa;f me Iawwasnot inevitah e:"ana

'that the infana; did norhave to die, It was, the: faceon;es

'tha.t sa:ved all these lives, all toe mal1Y b, is true fbr' ,onlY\\1f few y,ears;, but stillmany did g,IOW up, and since it is 'life and 110[:. no-life 'chat counts, the. facc'Qriesmight claim to! be benefi~g ,the w,orh:tIn saying' d1i~ I d,Q 110t of course in me: leastwant to condone the 'system, whichsometimes exhibited 3" ,monsuous cruelryon the pm of st,ffish e.mpl'oyers, who, we:r,eemiching d.u:mselves, at, m.e el'pense of theunnecessary :sutferings of their fellow creatures, Still~, in weiglilil:g the queseionup, there: should bl counted OIl the positive side the fact that, 'q uitea large fraaion ofourpresenr population would simply not. .. 'in,exiscenc,c ,at all now, if therehad been no' factories I hundred years ago.

I. have already' poinred out that ~hot1gh ,the Ivailabiliity ]8

'p OP utA T'I'.!O N

,~, food is me fUndamental!. question for mankind there I also the .importan.c: question ofrhe com:petition for

11':t food between men an.d between nations, It will It~.- tllose whoare suecessfiilin the competition who will .Ilake up the population .of the fu[ure,md so it, is the t ~ ualiries tn,a;t lead to this su!ccess 'which will determine ,h; ICOUI"SIt! offl1.tllle history .. The consideration Qfthese qualities is tnerefo,re naturally the main theme of the:

I -1!H!nt work, and t'h~Y,.will be studied in the: ensuing 1,luapt'els. In theremainder of this chapter I shall tty to (1,,- al with certain argumellti about population, which I

II~s,peC'c may be' pre~!H:llt in _ me' minds of some of my ~ iaders, III looking at past history they may.have been

'ccwtomed to consider that one of the important thing:! r (l do......-,[s it is certaimy 'me interesting thing 'to, do· is to i~~ess merits in the personalities of their hiseories, and ~~~ey will not he content to believe thata cold counting

~£' beads is really more impo'rta11t~[ do not in the least , ant to opposethe makiilg of j 'l1d.glnencs of this kind" ndindeed f shan be making malty m ~.. £; but .here I want: '[0 est:a~Hsh thepoint 'chat, just because they Ire jud,,gmentsof,thepast and not the fu:eur'e, marty ofrhem Ire ir,r'el€va:l1t to the' subJec:t

Most people ~-e: muchmore interested in, qualityth;:m [1111. quandty",Qlld 'theym!ay ar,gue that ,there have been nla31Y cases where qualitY' has proved itself more im ... ~ errant than qu:andty. They ma.ys,ay ,that in the course ~ 'I" paS:E' history ~ numericallysmall race of high quality h 3\S OHeIl been far more important: thana ]ar,g',era;cc' of '~,l1'W quality. 'This has 'been true inthe p,ast", and no doub:t Ilf willofte-n be true again, but taken 'by itse:1f the jt1dg-

39

THE NJ!XT' MI.LLJ'ON YEAR.,S

ment aoro.mplisbes .nothing., Wh'eD. it is. said,. that ,3, small race 'W.U 'Ofien mere .implo'fWlt rh:m a. large one, ir sometimes means, that rhis race, in consequence of irs high q'~'mUq.:r' achieved success in life III such ,I way as, to beCOIMe :fiuiffulli and m:uJ.tipJ,y~ so 'ilia; in fact it later 'became a large race. Rome in its, early d.ays is a typical example; it is not important he cause of its smallness=-for th~L't would.im.ply that the rival city of Veiiwasequally im ... pOf'tallC ......... but because it ultimately became large. We do not ,esp,eciaUy admire each of ' the villages of.La'tinm juse because ODe of them gr,cw into an ,empif\e~ and we do in mucc valuerthe li:ttle' Rome only because it 'bec=tme' ,th~ B,relr Rome. In dle :march, of his:ca,IY every im:r.iru:tion has ,I small beginning, ~'Dt ie isthe whole of its. }jlis,t:ory' and not tbe ·begiltl1nimgt:ha.t must C:OUlD:£' in .. ·me iJlss·ess.meur Dfi.ts vllu,e-" '50' that· in suchexamp,1.es, ,IS; chi.s; i~ is urc'iev,aftt 'to emphasize t:be' smallness,

There is :3. second 'very differ'el1t sense in which it nlay 'b~ said. that there are n'lJJllcr.ica1.1ysmall races: which are more important dl31R large ones. For lexamp,]e there is the gro'up 'Ofl, .few arrulng ehe A,theuia:ns of the ,c:lassic~ period 'who made important contributiona m know .... ledge md art, The number concerned was extraordi .... DilI.ily smaD~, aD!d ,th,dr' era was'very ephemeral, bu,t their enormous c-outri.budon to thcrichnes,s ,of the: world is mdispumble~ Such co.n.tti'bu.rions are undoulnc,dly among the most importanr 'chings, in - wOlrld, butrhey are nearlyinelevant in 'tIle presen.t cODtext .. There have-been innwner,able small ICi.ry 9:tlles" 'whose' 'earlier' -his'co,ries 'were in.distin.guUbable from. tha.t ofAthens.~ and it lis only af~er the event that we can d.iscrimirHlte A,tlltn'

401

POPULATI'O,N

f I cm rhem, For :futUrle wOOiry our enthusiasmcaenoe I 'expended on all 'thae mnwn.er'alble little st;a:tes; we r uld only be justified in Idolmg SO'" if w·c could hope f~ ereby consciously 'co create somedting like ,I new ,hens ..

A, study ofpast history docs not encourage this hope,.

Most of theseflowerings have occurred in association. : icll the rarher sudden acquishion of wealth by a race .• , calm- of£cn won by the conquest or the commercial tploitation of neighhou[s. But rhe conversehas Dot II 'ell true, since such wealth has, freq'UJcndy bOOl1 gained

ithour any ,effio[1escenc,e .of '[h,e arts or sciences, In _'Ct tbJesc ,cfRoilescenas, ar,e w'ha:t bytny ,anaJo,gy .frol.m I bys'ics I halve ,caDedIflucrua:ri'om.rlepr·iesmtill,g occasional I .- rreme departures fr01D 'me' average. If it is g:o,ing, to he ! Md to _do, my~i.ng in rh.ew'ly of conrrolling 'rbe .lverage hisrory of humanity" it .is,go,.mg ajard'''ri ro be very much harder to ciontl:o,l its fluctuatfon., .. 'To, indwge In a flight of fat1cy~ imagine that SL world dictator con-

id,ered that 'fue_o'111y really imporcanrrhingwas to have:

I new school of paulting asgrear as the Italian or Dutch ,.hools .. How sbowd hie go abour cre'a:rilll it?' To jud.K,e hy past history he would, nor succeed by fOW1d~g I. - arned colleges of arr "ridl elabcrare pro1visions for cernpetieive scbolanmps"buc r~u:ble[ 'by creating 3" rho[oughly turbulent world, :fun ofs,trug,gle, war.fule lind inj llsdce·., In this world here and there cities 0'1'

euntries _ ~ouldariJe w'hich 'm;['lough rhe 3lbUity of ,~ fe1w 'of their citizens" their Medicis or their Anl~ srerdam merchants, ateained a very unequal share of rhe w,orld,:I 9 wcaldl..By the time rwo 0,[ threedozen

41

TH:JENEXT MILLION'YBA:R.S

states, ·of 'chis, kind hId come into existence there migh,t be . s: lnt ho p' '. - that in o;-·'n· -'"Q, 0' "[ two of them there re,ally'

_ e a ~Im _ ~:_I ,=C Ul~L _ c:,_,~ "__; ""11' __ -', "'.' '·.C ::'~c.'cC :-'~ --'~-'.

would .h,s;ve:arisen sirn.t11cmeous]y patrons, widt the tuteof a Lorenzo mel painters widl the genius ofa Titian ora. Rembrandt. .Al[og,cther' it does not $,celi) likely 'that theworld dim1jor' would be very :sDCCCJsful If this is ,really the most important thing for the world, it does not seem likely ,tha:t we em do much to bring it ·,about.

These examples fro:M 'the pas!t~ wher,e we can 'be wise after the ,event~give little help' in suggesting how the quali,ties of mepopula,tio,n of the fu,ture are to hejud,ge,l~ Survival!, is tile essential fac~o[ ill the making of his, tory " and Itmust certainly have first place, 'but most of us; w,mt '[0 knowmueh more than this about the qualities of the survivors, What' line should. the historian 'take m making judgments about these quilities~ It wouldbe a' tenableview 'that his duty is coldly and objectively to observe w',ha.'t llappens" noting merely '[ha'e such and such

~ '.~ '. ":'i~~1:····~·'I' flo '·~···.h,~ .. _j -~,-,. I ch mds .~t. aneeoch. and. a popwatlon . OUIlseu atsuc __ ~ an .SUCJ1 an~r - - ," '-

h . ,Jdin .:.' ,.,:hc· ~ ,ii-, it w·' ,c··U!'. no :t,· :C:o-' ,r' . l,.;ft"li te .... ',t"I,,.,,.,,., ment either

.' CU,I _ g ~.~ a.,!I. .1 '_ 'Qi.~ '. <...[i. U,!!"iI,,J!"" IL...., "",v",,,,~ ... -:__,, -- . '.

favourably ()runfavourablYiI Oil. the q_uaJi.ties ofthe pOp'll'" Iation. If me future is. regarded as, a, quire Wlco'n.'tro~a:ble un ._.ing~ ,ofeven,ts"rhen, ,S; cold account ofitl!' :fr.ee fr,om ~ll moral Judgments would he In admissible policy ~ The only important dUng in 'such a vlew would, be: me purel,! 'o~jlective' question what at some ,epoch the' s,.urviv~i' population was and. ,wha.t: was thecha·ract,erof its life;,. even ifir had dC,senera;ced t-o som~t'hin:g very much lower in the animal scale than mythin~g w,c'nave ax

4Z

POPU'L,ATlOIN

l,reseD.t. But even for'the i.nunutahle past most historians 'llo not' follow this method; th.ey do pronounce judgments, 'chotL,gh nothing 'they say can altef'whatactll . ,J:ullp'pened~ ;and most of us ,accept: 'tins, very de(mit,c]y as ,·he best way to write hi~i'tQly . If dul,( is so for the past, how muchmore is it so for the fu,ture, for though our

I iontrel ofth~ .filtm\e isccrminly very lnach smaller than. i~ claimed by the optimists, still some control. does exist; flO some extent we ma,y aspire to give: ;1 dire,eriot! to the

l,e:vdopment: of the world" -

Historisns ,ofcbe p:a.s'c' have usually taken, some broa.d 'dea as a g'wd;ing p,rinciple m. their ace-otm'!: ·of P:F4st even;rs.

d there has been a good. deal ,of variety in these ideas ..

To one it will have been. the material conditions of a people that: is of ,chijef importance, to another thc,jr politiC:al:hlstitudons, a third will be ins,pil',ed 'by . ·

. hilos,ophic' or religio,us 'choughc'I' allcl a, f'Olltih by their' military explcits, Another will trace me his,t'ory lola, broadg,enetll idea Iike the dev'elopm'e1lt 'of personal iibertYf-while others have, perhaps uncionsciously, imbibed 'the' tenets ofsome long-deadnarrow poHti.cal Ip'~rtyJ and have: judged the events and me 'perso,n~ alities, of their historical pexiod 'by tbat st,m,dard,~ .Every historian must be allowed to have some guidU'lgprin-

ipleof d:ds type as ,I hackgrowld for his history I and 1 m entitled. to claim this, right, for mysdl Since I have heen. emn'hasizlnf)' the fWldamental P osition of the cues-

E 113 1.1 ~,

don of survivaL it :might beconsidered ma:tl o~ugh~t, to

refrain ftomallintellectual,and. moralj udgments abour ~etUtute members of rhe human race, It is simp.ly im .... pC!isiblefoI any hUlnan be.ing to' pms'ue sueh a CCHJZSe,

43

THE NEXT MILLION 'YEAIlS

because his whole life has . 'been coloured and conditioned by the habit offornliD,g judgments of this kind., Even if I tried to' do it, it would not be possible for tb;a~t reason; hut" guided by the.example of rhe llistorims o.fthe pa.s:c" I 'would not wish eo do ir,

Though me matter of survival is fimdamenral, still it is pennissible ro show preferences berween diffsrent 'ways of'surviving, For example some highly successful modes of ] j.fe-: such as 'that of the p'axa,si~~w{)'l11d noc be regarded. as ,admirahle~ nomareer what human stan ... dard theY' arejudged by .Now the chiefnatural q ualities of ,man" which cijstinguish him fra;mom'er milnals, ;a.r~ that he is g~mo1t:meQusly an intelligent and a social animal, and. both rhese Iqualities tend towards success in survival, the one fo.[ the individual the other £or'hl~ ,tfihe~ BOim are qualities which are admit:ed 'at allY rare byrhe n'tljoriry of us, 'some putting; .inr-elli.gen.ce: firST:~ others the sense oEsorial duty. Therefore Inso far as it is p'ossible to look beyoJJ.d the brute que,stio.n, of .sutvival and tOI make s,o.bJective estimates of value: about 'the future human. race, I shall rate: as admirable any imptovleme:nt_ mat in the' courseofthe ;ag,e-s shQuld develo,p in tb,e intellect of mankind;, and any improvement in hil sense of devotion to his fellow man. A combination ofirh.e two qualities is beSit of all, but, ifit is 'necessary 'co selecrberween them~lshould assign first: place to' .in~ telligenee, if oDly because it is :a mOlrc'distinctive characteristilc of the human, race ·than the SiOC.iU sense, whichafrer' allman shares; with many other animalss mstudYIn8;' pit!l't' ,history it is onlypossible forthe his-:: toriant1J take' what did happen andeither appro¥e Of

44

P'OPULATION

disapprove. III furur,e history the historian is not so Hnl1ted;: he ID"ayno;. o~n1y .. npprove: or disapprove~ but he may also hope.~ I shall hope most of all dlatthe surviving races of man in tlle lQfi,g agesl to come will increase still furmcr in inrellectual staturel

4S

T- 0 set the stage for [he: history of the future~, it is" naturalto start by reviewing the hiseory of the ENiLs't;, having r,egard only to the principal facts., I am trying 'to' imagine what an historian of a, million years hence, -,en-, gaged in pt,eparing ,3. universal hisrory of the human race, would select ,from our own past history as worthy of notice, I think he' would select o:nly OC!CUfre!l'OeS where :mankind made a step fo,rwatd 'wbich was never lost

., th'" • h- . b . - '.~ 11 d . h' . b- 1-1

aga1n; rr -ey mig t ,. e cau ,C_, 'tile IrrfVefSLu! stages. There

would seem to have 'been four such stages in the develop-

f h . . ... i, 'I' h J~

menr 0 aumamty, smce me time w nen noma s'apie,'1l"

came into existence. Widl the first three everyone is, familiar, so' that 'they need only he touched 011~ but the

s: t1 hich i ",. .' th

murtn, wr .cn 15 quite as important, is S:O recenr tnat ir,

has almost escaped conscious notice. I shall call leach of t11em a revolution, though. the word is not meant to imply ~y extr:emesud~enn,ess,~ In. each, thf1 germs may be detected long befoire, and it may have' been a long, ,time before' they spread over the wo,rJd; in some cases the revolution has been made independently in different ,reg,ions. The central feature of each revolution

h b _T_ "- 'bl- L':--'_!:~d l' 1

as ,e~n to make It' POSS,ltl e lor mansmc urge Iy to'

ul ,. '1' b

m ,'up-y In num cers,

Th,e fir$t,ev,olutio.n, occurred long 'before the dawn 46

TH_j E" FO': U"I'n aav 0'" L-- 'U' Tl-'O'- N-""'S-'

_ -' .. _C_' _-' . - ~ A..-', , .... _ '. j '-' :.c"_,._ ':-"

, history II and we: can only conjecture its effects~ thoug~h I,:: can do, this 'with confidence, It is, the discovery of .,1 I • By means offlI'e cooking becomes, ,possible', and so • he' difficulties of man through his extremely poo.r

_ ',uipm,ent of teeth can be overcome .. The possibilities,

f dietare multiplied very many times" both because near can be eaten that is, not completely purrified, and , cause many herbs tbere;hy beccmedigestible and nourishing, It can co:n£idendy be said that :3,'5, soon as

lre came into use, the earth could ,support it much mreased pO,pulation" because so' many more varieties of ,ad became availa.'ble'~ There was of course also ,a eond use for me in the heating of shelters, which 'was '~mp'Ortant though by no' meansso im,p'orca:n:t; since man ould thereby live in the temp,erate and sub .... arctic , gions,~ in a way that would not have been otherwise

sossihle, .

The second revolution is the invention of agriculture,

his, dates fro,m the' neolithic period, perhaps, ten or' £tttee'ntll,O<USI11d, years a,go.~ so tbac a ,good, deal is known , bout it ,The tribes ci1at' .had, agriculture could provide themselves with food. both animal and vegetable, far 'more regularly than, was ever possible fOI' the hunters or

:Dod-s,e~kets. Theywould become much, more frec,than, ehe huntersfrom the difficu1lties ofthe~ seasonal cycle" and could. settle permmen'tly in one place in much larger communities. 'Once again, 'with the invention. of agriculture'" there must have been a grccat expansicn 10£

opula:tions ..

The tbif'd revolution, is the urban revolution, me invention of living in, cities .. This, revoluticn arose in

4'7

TI~E N-EXT MILLION YllAllS

~eve:ral differ.encplace~p at: different times _and ap'pafcn~tly, independendy; the chief places would perhaps be Egypt", Iraq, China, Mexico" and the earliest time was aboutsixthousancl years ago . By the close association 11'1 cities" bringing with it-the division of lahour" the establislnne'l1c '0.£ food stores, and the pOSSibility of relieving local shortages, through theregular operation :of 'trade, it once a,g~dn became possible greatly to ill.creaie the population. All this is of course in the hl8'~i(lrkal 'period,~ anda great' deal is known about itl, so much indeed 'fha'l: there has 'been a 'tendency to study and to en1phasize the iliffer-ence.s between the various civilizari,ohns~[athe'r than their resemblances, In g;etting 3" 'true- perspec~i:ve _of' the, wo:dd!l it is more inlpoI'eanc 'to rememberthst lif~ in ,Bgypt and life. in China were far' .l1101,e alike than either was tOI life at the' same period in Europe. On the analogy I: made between human his,tory and the molecules of a gas~ 'me different civilization,s, are to b,e ral1kJedas fluc:tuadonsfr,olnth!c average; they have, ,gone in rather varied direcdons with most interesting di6'"erences" hu:[ it is far more fDIlda~ mentally :im,p:ortaJlt to noriee not ,these .differences bUT: rheresemblances.

The fOUE:th revolution itt human history is :90 recent that it has hardly been recognized, because we: are still in th.e middle _of i:e,,,,$,Q ,that we lack the- p·ers:pectiv'e-~Qt cOMpa.rei:r with 'm!e'otber.i., It ,may he calledthe Scientific, Rev,olutiofl) for it is. based on- the discovery that it is possible ccasdously 'to make disooveries about ~e.£undamel1tal 'nature' of 'the 'woirld,_ s:Qtha,t by their means man can !U1telltionally and deUbe1'a'~ely

48,

THE PO'U1\. ,R..'EVOLUTlONS

:llrer his way of life. Om histories arc so detailed, andnm so uniformly tbrnush thispericd.uhat it has Jl,udly been noticed as constituting a revolution, That 1:~ is so may be perceived by observing that the popula ... , rion of Btitain has increased more jhan four~fold since I_8'c1ol,an.d. much 'the same is true of many other parts of the world, by no means exclusively among the

h . M" d '. .1~ ·1' - ·h' d- d-

w nre races, "oreover ' .. ~ .uring tLU;::- ,as-c one .•.. .nn ·re '.

and fifty years the whole manner of living has- been more changed than in the previous, fifteen hundred, years., It is tl'"uema:t life iDlweste(n Eur-ope ill 17 sow,as very materially different fronl life in A.D. 100 in Italy; Gibbon notes, 'almost with surprise, that a .. ~ its, zenith 'ch;e populaticn ~fR(une was, consider~blysmal1er than that of London in his own day.. Since London, unlike Rome, 'was by no means unique ,amOl1!g cities, this shows aconsiderable advance in the art of living close together on the ground,~,bwt, it: is likely tha.t it 'was due 'to steadyt, though not' R:VOlUtiOllary,l improvements in tr,anspoftation, in parficu1ar water transport, since rhis would make very much easier the, transport of £bod into conc,fMluated. areas, In OUlEX nL'1tter,s, too, of course'~the:re were important changes, such as 'prin.ting and. themilitary arts consequent on the use ·00£ gunp,ow-aer', but '\Vithout belittling these changes", they were on an incomparably smaller scslethanthose wit .... nessed between 1'7';5'0 and 1950~, in nearlyaill ,parts of the world, It would surely be just [0 sa.y mat London in 17.50 was far more' like Rome in A.'O_~ ,1,00, than like either London or Rome in 19'5O.

Germs, of ,the 'scientific: revolution can of course be

D

49

THE, N~'XT·MI.L,t,EO<N YIl,AR,S,

seea IOing before its ,Ictual 'b,ittb" j'wlr 1.5 no douhlE ,there:

Wal, sporadic:' ,Ig'rieulmr,e: be£of'_' 'me OJeoUtbic: ,revolutioD .. , 'Tbc[e 'w,ere: Idisc1oiVlefies:" m,d veryu:seful, ,disco'veries,...._ then as now 'Unfonunarrdy it was 'mili,tHy'scicnce ,Chat seems eo have ,pr,ogres,sed most~bu.t' there appears to have be-en Iinle idea that discoveries 'OI inventions could be: deJiber,ltcly made of such a character as really to alrer the world. The germinating idea, is to be found, in th.e experiments ,of.GaHleo, and in thewrieings of'Baeon, but: the: revD,lo£io;n, may be said to' have been born at 'tbe' time o,fthe: :HnglUb Iod,'w:ttia:] Revelurion, and in, parti-, ctJJar 'Cllf,oughthe invention cfraUways .. En'rhisrevolu-· 'ricin. .' :-crbeprmous ones, 'we' esn ha.ve anexaee Hie !Qfrhe~ lelfecr an pOlpulatioD~ m 2, ,cen:tory the

populati!on O.'~ 'land, in. :spit'te efrnueh ,emigr,atio,n~ was

m- - ~~"llli'l~Dli'·,pd' - 'b'y' ,£, ..... u. "'IIiM ~ .... L ::i~ -lanA ,I!'! hows wh -t - - -'v' WI~-~'r'! ~~_.~:" . - ):'.' ,1ILlI~I'1 IW'&J1Q, 'aIlQ IUJ'- I~ s : 'YI"'.,-If';!iJ "t~'·.na~, 3D, ex-

Icep'rlonal.pet:~o.d it has 'b,een~, fo:r~ if ehe same (actor of ,m:w!tiplica;tionwere 'to continue the result w,Quld give 'I ''lu:he fm:tas'tlcilly unp'Qs,sio,le mcremen,t in ,even. L mCRllS,md years. The' principal contributions to ihis revo,lutio'll havecome fro'llil the Atlantic sea.-boud. and the grea.teit: mcrem,eJll1lb.:a.ve 'therefore' been among me wm'teraca",hut 'me 'benefitl, hive' 'b'een sbar,ed. 'by rruJ,s,£ ,orh,e;r parts ,of ~ •. w!olld,., fo,r' cxam:p]e 'rhe ,po'p,u],a:tio1l of 'India, used, to be: held in ehee ~. 'by ,periodic hmmn,es ,pCl·tiImceJ:~b'Ulc' tbemttoductiaD ofm!odem hY,gienc, and cbeldrninisttario'D ,of the 'ImiDe' cede, made p'OrSi!\ible by I,ailw,lY IcoDlDlmUati'OmB", havehaddl.e 'effect 10£ inCf1casing. thep,opulati.o,n lofIndil~ a:t m: guess bY:1 fact,or o{',mo:['e- than two, in .S! century ..

The' central fact of this revolution has been. me. disSD

I 'e/wlY' ,t nature Icm 'be c)O.bUO;- ',md, conditions r od~f~led, :mtentionally, burr just 0, 'th,e city may 'be relarded. asd1e :s,Ylubol of 'rh,e'urbm ,[,evolution, .. sothere

I ,-' '. ."

i. a :s,ymhol for ehenew one, Itis the fact that the earth

h s become '6 nire, There are no longerm,y fmnders,

~n'trimjng themlkno'Wlll! and :n'o,thil1g canhappen in my put of the world whichmay not have important I reec$; Illy\vhere else: .. In. 'me long past' there was: aJ.w,I,Ys "he danger of invasion ttOr.M bf!yond the froDtierbythe ': ,- 'my of some unknown Ill,d pe'rbaps, !!i,bperio',civiliza.(jon." 0,£ convi _- there was: the: p'ossj,bility (lff 'the - oIDonizariO'D of a V31S'£ fetti]e 'UDoc,cllf,jed OOftUl'ttjr .. 'There'

• ill-' '. 'L h-·' ..

_ ' sti ". a, 'v!ery great nn,cefiramry' alDIIQUr w -I.a.'~ mCunJ:ODS,

here :may be ffJom orher p.UtS of mewotrld'J' bue -dreum~ c.rtainty is DO,W one: abourhnman nature, :D~O lon,8ief , _bout geo:grapby., The finiteness of rhe world is one of

dle chief'things 'clutt make ir possible ro fbresee its, fu.rore wima degree of confidence 110W ,thlt 'wCl'uJ.d, have been impossible Htde morethan a eentury ago.,

The word civi.lfzatJ'Ol1sig:nmes, ill. its or],gin the mode '_ f life connected wid1 living in :II ,city ~ and~ since m.ere luIS beena greatvariery ill tbemodes, ofllife pf31ccisedin ,the different: cities, it· is reasonable 'CCI speak of ,mmy ,1UfeI'en't ,civiliz;aI'Q,om,., There lie still very di£fer'm:t' , nodes ofKte in diffe[\f!Dt parts ofthe wc"rld~but 'chey' ,:lIie united, tbr'OIUghOU't the w.hlole wlor,ld, by 'dle ,)leW ' o'w~ 111 dge and the new mode i.n:rrod,uce,d, by idle slci,enti6c

evolnrion, There' is [leaRy need for' :motherwo[,dtlo

-:-1 ,.. ' h~'" -"'- " 'd'- , '"viI,"~"~ - . ,_., . ,.~- ,.,-:- --d' I ',. .1...! ~'L ". . _~'~I ~ , •. ' ,~,' ..

I, pla.ce me WO'[,· ,CJ.· ,,1Za:aon~ ,I wore W:t:ur&nWO'WCl eon-

uote the univers,ali,ty of the '[I,ew culture, but no such word has come into U.5,e" ,and I shall not atte'mpt: to

51

THE, NE'XT' M.ILL[ON YBA,ltS

inven:c: one. If mere were such aword, irwould be accurate, and ncrcheaply cynical, to 'sa:y that the fourth revoluden has destroyed civilization, .10.1' ie has replaced it by the new and superior mode of life.

It is, a natural question to ask whether' there may not he other revolutions in store for humanity .. The answer is that' one furur,e revoludon is nearly a. c:er'cainry"whil.e there may w,ell be-others. TIle ·fifdl revolution will come whenwe have spent the stores of coal-and oil 'that: have been. accumulating dn the. earth during hundreds of millions ofyea;rs~ 'This will proba.bly be wellwithin a thousand years, avery much shorter period than me', periods between the-etherrevolutions. It is to be hoped thatbefor,c then other sources of energy willhave been aW6iop,ed; dl,e suhJe,ct will be' discussed in .detail in the next chapter" but without considering the detail it: is obvious dlat there "Will be a very great difference: in waya of life. After all a man has to alter his way of Iifecon,siderably w'henj! after living tor years,' on his ca.pita-Ilhe suddenly fmds he has to' earn,QlllY money he: wants to spmcl Wll€:ther aconvenient. suhstitute fo~ the present fnels is found ornet, there can be no doubt: that there will have' to 'be' a. g,]L,ea.'t change in 'ways,of life. This change may jus'dy he called arevolution, but it~iffer~

_ . c· -, ~ 111· '.. . ~ 'h, . ",,"L. .., '. 1':11~ J =L -:;l'

{[,om allthe p-Iecoom,g ones; m t ~ attnere 1S 'no :J.Ae'J.HIOO.

of its, lead.m,g toincreases of populat£on, 'but even perhip:s to the. reverse .. _ ;.-

What other revolution's; fu the: remoter fnturemJl'Y1 there: be in store] This ispeehsps Dot a 'very' ,profitable' speeulatien, since anchrevoluriens cannot be fo:reseen~ S2

THE, FOUR. llE'VOL'UTIO.NS

lif anyone of'them could, 'we should hy the v'ety' fact he en the highway to'wards it. Nevertheless, with this caution in mind" it is interesting to make conjectures lb,out rhe subject, bringing to hear on it the viery con~ iderable knowledge we 110W pcssessofehenaeure 'of the world round us; and allowing fre1e rein to '[he imagina~ ion. There will nodoubt be periods agliu;J1 when rhe world flourishes exceed.ingly) btlt these d-t)110C neces .... sarily count as revolutions. The essential fea:rore of a

I evolution is that thet.eshould be an irrevt'~:iible change in the wa.y~ ofHfe.Thus suppose' that after the practice' of agriculture had been well established, there had arisen : reversion :uo!m it over a great pa,rr of rheesnh; in con~Ieq_uence of this so mal1Y people would have ha.d 'co die, d1a,t the remainder would certainly have seen the error of their ways and. returned to rhepraceice, The fout' past· eevolurions have all had this Iq'uruity of irreversibility" and so has the fifth 'which I h~vle adu-mbrated-. Ali these, revolutions have been concerned with man' 5, control ever his externalsurroundings, mdmyflrs:t speculadons 'will be, as, 'to pcssible exrensions oEcitis kind._

Irmustfirse be recognised dl.at the impulseof the ~,o:urth revoluticn is hYI10 means' exhausted. yet, Even wit.hout any new discoveries, at'ill~ru,ld new discoveries, are being made every year .......... there would be ve'ry. great

hmges still to come in the near £U.tut'e. The pO,p'tdation of the earthcould increase very greatly wirhoae any new discoveries atall; it n1ight reacha level of density over ma.ny parts, of theeatth as g:rea,'t as it is n,QW in ,the mere populousregions, Even if this expansion .. were to take

everal centuries, to came about, it shoUld, be countedaa

S3

T'HE NEXT' M[LLI.ON· Y'E,A.aS 'blelonging to the :fonr-tb re'y,olU'tion~f'uttme sci!enrllic disc:o'v'eri,es: may lead ~O' orher advances, hut 'rhese ,COi-:_:, ' only be IcoWlt-ed as, 'beloD,giDg 'to a, Dew and se/Flamm I1CVolmu'bon,! if the "presen,t series of adlvmcfS, came: to an end and 'w,as' :folllo'wed biy a. peri.'od, of oCID'l:par.ntive s'im.;fInation fora, few thousand ye'ars.,

The most likely cause of another revolution would be the discovery ,of some new w'ge source ,ofllumm foold~ It mighlt be fonnd possible 't~syn:mesize food from. " chemicalelemenrs, or it mighe, for lexample" 'be r,n,I''1'nNI'1I p,ossible to tum :gr,2lSS er wOlod, inro ,I :s,adsfa1ctory h,!!i.'I<' I,i!;,~_ diet, Thiswould Icom'tiru.ee ,lnew'Irevlolutionll 'me "II:! r'~ """".1 F'111I'iIU"'I scientwc l'rt:Vloludon;Eor ,die De'w fOod, supp!lies, . i' w,d'Bte an enormous: ioare3S'e in :popula:rioll, ,aDd, enee ' I pr;actioe:bad brecome wideslpl,:[e3d~1 there ,coUld, be: . dlr,llcw:mg 'hack. I shall nOI'c' c'o,n.sldlel' the mareer herc~, smrem.e quesdol!L of£ood, 5,uplplies is: reviewed in later cha pIer ~

Could mer,e be ,any dis,covery in the: :urS,alS ' 'to th~ sciences, that mighr lead toa revolurionf will undoubtedly be many ,new and, ~citing QJ.' i'l:S'~ coven iu,che uts;; :therlc will be B,ew scheols ,of ,paintio,g1!' iA.ljI! . ~',! ",,":,;III.AIII and B'rer.tore" mddlesewiJl contributea ,W,ele deal the: ha:ppme:ss,ofdlle 'wor:~ClI' oe at,myra:t:e of a, grlell't _' .... --. peopl1e ill it.,B'Uf they' ha--,dly seem '[01 CaB m~ol dle ClaSI what I ka,¥e C1t'lled levolut'loDSIJr {or i:t does DD,'t seem, mrou\I'h· m, my radiw chang:e co,'old Mise:., would, :irreversiib"fy altcl'rhew,~ysl loiJife of hundredsl ' nilllio,ns, of 'the human race, It sc!cmSi precisely in ' ,condi~tion.ofirrevel"sib:ility 'Cha,if:; the arts failJ! £0'1' ,m ''''''I'' "' .... M .. mDch more than in ot1u:r branches: ,of knowledge,· '"'" I'"'.,.. .. ~

,s,

'T.RE ,f'OUR 'lllEVOLUT.!:O,N:S

r fr1eql1en1 l:en,dencY'tlo, ,l')eVlert tOI earlier m1odeh:; in, this 1'· e rever-sibility is an impID,nan:t c'h:a;raaeristi,lc of the, rs.

Thereis ,math,er' imagma,b'le revolution w~ ~ ,would rl..ClJf i£, 'byany'means; whatever,. if were {o'und possible ~ foresee the future with substantially gre:a:ter arccur2CY I r~3J,l we now can, so ,th;;c it l11ight 'become possible to now with ~ g,ood deal of confidencethe most' proha.,ble msequences ,of any proposed plan of action. It is 'what all try eo ILIa ,even nQw as far ,I,S we !cm___,.;it' is indeed

bat I am 'crying 'to do in the pr,esenc 'e:JI,ay Ion '[he longI[ rm scale=burI am. im,a:gining rhat some newdi ..

Ivery should make 'the process far' more precise for hort ... term plwniog'., This might C10:Ole about, fur[ ex ..... ImplcJI IEhrou.gh theuse of ~he:new hi,gb""pe1ed ,c:allcttlarmg machines, which in a S'hOTI[ space~ ,of time mi,gilt, explore the consequences 'Il:lfaltlema:tivf!' poUc.Les, with a completeI~ ess dU1.f is fu beyond: mytllin.g' '£hac' ,the human mind f an aspire to achieve ,dire'cdy ~ If this 'were the; way the revclntion was made, it would have 'to count as yet mother scimltific[,ev'olu.tion. B'UE I do not want to ex-

~~ude the: p,os;ribility rhat ir mi,gllc all come ,about 'b,y I ·.me othernon ... &derui~rc means.thou ilt seicms a good

d_.aIles,s pr1olbable:duu:chls, sh,ould be 5101,.1 do D:O'[ believe th· t me' -Ddlp,bic ,olraciewill be revived, md if fotu['c

- 'b £' d ~d· d· '. .' .C:'

mines are to ee :[Orre&een ,ml.-_ a,v'o"i.1 e _ ~I l.~: IS, tar more

lIJ1kelyclla!'£ ir ,will h,e done byscilenti6.c weamler fi;lfecls·r ....

'111'8 than 'wougb. J osep,h~,s, interpretation of Pharaoh' S L ream, However thismay be, if'tlle future could Die more confidently pre~ct~dl' it would evidenrly have an nnmense leffect, on 'world history ~ For exa:mple;< nOC01.ln-

S5

THE NEXT MILL.,ON YE _RS 'try wuuld embark on _ plan of,t~_p'id_'world conqu st, ~: i't could foresee that the' war would almost certainly end 'in Icrushing ,d,e£~t aft,er six :y, ars, 'Tl~,e ,p,ol,ssibiliry 10"£ 'making such prediceions would ]lave rhe real character of an irreversible revolution, in 'the sense that no nation which had grown used to C nsulring the new-and ,[,di,ble----augurs~, wouldever revert to the haphazard methods, which are all 'that we possess at 'p,:resent.

These p,ossi'ble revoludons share' with 'the ,past: revolucons the quality rhar dley would increase man's, control over external naruret rhe 6ftb r rolution, me sh rtage offllel which Ihav ' adumbrated, will ina,a decrease i'tt bUlt it will have the same character ofh~g an exten 0

evolu.ti,on~ But there is aho the possibility of an inter u revolution, This wc,uld come about if means, w are discovered of deliherarely alcering human nature itself, I , hall discuss this in later chapter ,after _' closer review ,of the innate qualirie f mankind'; her . i[ must ,s,uffi, rc say 'mat the prospects do not seem at all :good~ Th re is fust the extreme d.ii6c:ulty of making such changee, ,and

the probability d13t most of them would, be' for ' _

worse, and secondly if by chanee a revolationary imnrovement should uise, it see - s all too likely tl t Idle r -r IQf mankind wlul,d not roleraee rb,e supeml 0 ,_ ..

'would destroy ,th m b.e£o'Ic e . er tlleY bald 'til· ~m,e 'to m,'L1lrip'ly. lit Wall ,n'lainly _the beli· fthat there will be. :nG revolutionary change' in human nature, 'mat '!I.o<'j L .. ,£Ibi'''"''' ....... ·_~. __ l

meto wriee this I~y. _

,As, I have said, these specularions about future

lutions are only the wildest ,conjlectooes .. Leaving aside I .

unknown dare 10" the ,fire r .volurio:n., we b,ow .s:6

TH F' U'R REV'O'LU-T.I:'Q'NS

ithin less than the pa'st twenty thou-and years, '[here have already been three revolutions, If dna can be re'~3[ded ,as ,a, precedent it sugglest! that there should be ,3, -volurio'D at leastev rytenthousand years; thac is to say .1 ore than a hundred of them in rh ' span of a million 1 2'[8. I confess tl very considerable doubt as to Ithe I-kelihod ,'hart' reb ere are so many re- elutions in store

d- d-·· b .- . · 1L dl~ 'I ,£:. 'L 1'1

I r our eescencanrs, . ut at ,an,y rare It IS narc Y PI'O:';l'ta[J1 e

10 speculate fllrth. r on rhe subj ect, -

57

IV'

MATERIA.L CONDrT[IONS

'T' HE future of the human race of course 'D1'ust . . I~_pend 'OD the nature of rhe inorganic wlodd . ~ ,

'hi·~L. li ..:L . _'1'11 b . - b

W cc',IYi. n: . ':VleSi~ 501 tnat ,1.1 is Wcu to begin " Y :lievi,ewin

this, In the firs,t plat. all astroacmieal and, geollcl_-i __ c jvid,:·'nce indica,tes 'r~h,at 'me' climate of rhe earth bas beea

!'~1 .r ... L ' -

roug'l1IY' eonstanr lor more min a 'mous,and millio

7ears~, ,m,d ,there is every reUQ,U to dnrlk it 'will continue

C- ·~··!'~H'·'

so llUr many mn .c,ony,,·ars lEO come .. , ' hereis alw,ays 10

Icou:rs'c' the ehanee 'that there may be' a d ark Situ mo'vin 1!·hr·O'U'. h Ip,~u:e to _ ,ards 'the S.O' ",yst~ _-_~ so' as 'to colli • with i·t~, ~h~ ctl~lidoll need, not he ~ery severe' 10, end 'the hist!ory of the human race, fc)r ,I p: .. rmrbadon of 'm I ~ arth'~ s D~birl' Whi,ch, might fbom ~,e ~~Ptfol'homLcal point of view' be' counted as, quite small. ~_.·~lou1ld be suflici,. _'

.. h .. :1.. cl~ .~ 111... d~ an-' 'I! s:

eo C .'anse tne ·~.1D1I,'~' 'noug_b, ~O'~C _crD'y~.-, life,

W=, 'obviou . carmo't' kno'w wh..:mc_ thereis a. da stat' app1f',oBclu1llg US', because· it would be' invisible. undl i wu qui\ce near, but we em, ,say that ie ,is le=emely ~=,pifIOb',lhL-,. firs~if ·tb]r~ weIJC many suchstal'Sl1 lone, " ·thm,' -,oiuld p'l\o'hajbIy '~Ik,ead,y ha:v~;' hiE rbe solar sys. '

d· .' - ~L f' , ... 1L, d "'11·' r·· __ .urm. c' m~ en, iO't"I/O' 'wousan·' . mt lon year~ IO~·· .,

me earth basi mOsted,., :S:econdly.~ in 'the int=nsive stddy the heavens, by Is:crcDa"mer:s, collisions would, have b lo'bs1erv ~id between cuher stars, and ·t:ho'Ug,h new srtars

5':8

M.A·TBlll,AL CIOINDITI'OIN'S

tJQVtlt'I' .&1!e fO'ood lath.· r' frequently, 'their cllaract,er does ft~t .Su.Sges,t dla:t they ~ere caused bY' collisi.ons 'of this kind. There is also another class of new stars, the st~pe,.-

~IUII!, only ratherreeenrly recognized, the last ,ODe that ~ccunl~d in m,le' galaxy 'w,as, Ty,ch,ol'lS s,tar'~1 wmlcb hap-,

ened In ]; S72-foll' some time it was so b.right as to he 'vb.i'bl,e in day]ight .. lr is still Vlery doubtful wh;u makes a.

, ll~em~va·' i~ might bea stage in the 116-, of every star" b~t . theirrarity 'make: dli~ unlikely, and as 'the sim is bY' ,I stand. ds .~a vlerycnlormal, utrlophrsically. uniDteJ:1es'~g

tar, '~e- can be fmly sure that it ,will not blow Up' inthU: - 3;Y·, Th~ general,co,uclusion of the astfoDomic3llevidence i~ 'chat it is very unlikely indeed dl3,t there should, lie at c~tastrlo.phic lend to 'the earth in ·2 million years;, or

b "at 1 . .

Dy S'U stanna comg,e in its condition,

Tb()u,gb ,the eanh's Id[Dlate has been roughly COB-

rant fo'r so' long, there have been 'minor' .Ructnations, in. ito) · h us, in England we are Olll1y D'OW em,er,~~ . fr~om an ice -g,e~ This, is the last offoD:r recent periods ofglaciation m the ncrehem hemis,p:berle, and 'there wet: three Internissions between these p riods when til. ~climaste: Was,

"eo 'warmer tb,m it DO'W is for 'q 11i~e a I,o"og time, W ' .... ~f ther fOle~e sure fbt there are no rurrlter ice age;! ommg ,tlOI LU~ All [ha'[ can be sud is, dla,t 'cLl0,ugh thete I, . ve und _ubtedly been other icc' ages. in 'the more distant 1',I't" ,they are g~llo,g:ic,ny speakiDg f,a,dll,E rare events, , ~.~~ tlle~r,~~, claim ro have gi~en an lex planation on

_ D:'Olnlom:ru~-al gr(nmds for th recent four a,ge.......but· then

•.. li1ere ~~d been ~ve~ mighc 'they na'r h .-"V~, discolvel'ed a I h [cIlen[' but eqllally.cogent reason ~or there having been

Ive? So w,· cannot be quire sure that there may not he' .S.9

THB, NEXT MI.LLION YEA.RS

more ofthem to come within a few tens of'mollsands a£ years,. However, these things are trivial, fer as first Scmdinavia, then Soorlandand then Englmdheca-nlc' uninhabitable, some diJ:ru~.'t·e further' sonrh wouldimprove; rain would fill in 'the SaIura, agriculture wouldflonrisll there and a glenera.l shift of _ populations $;outhwardf would leave thingsmuch as they are,

In 'this connection 'the direct influence that civilized man hars had on geographymay be: noted, Less than ten tho'U8ruld years agoEngland was connectedwirh Europe over whar is, now die North Sea, This region 'wa! :grl1duaUy drowned and, bur' £0.[ :thedirec::t 'action of man, most ,of Helland, and the English fen countq 'Would hY' now' abo have lbeendtow,ned and indistingwshablc: frelllme Nord~ Sea, But these: are CQ,IJlpaiauvely minor matters', fo.r the. evidence of thepast sho,ws, that thesea level has altered 11p and dO'Ml 'q uite considerably on account of the varying amount ofiye locked l1p at' the polea and it .is evident 'that as trivial ~~ change as fifty fee'~ in ~me level of the .sea would entirlel~~ d"e:featman~'s eff-orts to preSfl'Ve the low lying regions, Oli ccnversely with a rather lar;gct'chwge in the othe, directioll,would make itimpo~sibletio preserve ,Brita'Ul as, an iSlandocMm's' dir,ecr:: influence: on geography is really quite aegligible. On the' other hand his indirert_ ,in1!UOOCif: on g.eoJglaphyhu: been mere ccnsiderable, since he has made v,e.typerceptible cnangeS;'inclimatt 'b] me ,. ..~ -g of .forests.. This felling 'te'nds 'to' remove die spongy cover of the ground whichaers as ill reservoir {Of wa,~er, and it leads to a consequenterosion of his mIdi.' All this is new very much on thepub]ic'cowcience, ~,d

6.0

,M,A TEIlIA.L CON'DIT['ONS

some remedies are being found, so I shall not go into ie, I.r doe'S" however, illustrate hew the sbort-termincr,ease III the area under cultivation may be v'ery detrimental co

agriculture in rhe long rLlll. . .

It is more: interesdng to inquire whether man may hope to gain any direct control over climate.Jn the flIst plaJce it cansafelybe said. that it is quite impossible that I he shOl1ld directly cool the tropics: and simultaneously W,9J,rm the northerly regionsll for it must always be true 'that the average temperature will he higher ill the' lowee l~rdtt1des.If therewere 'to be anether ice ,age, which would cool the tropics, this could only beat rhe expense of still futt11er chilling the poles. But thereareexceptions to this general pl."lll.ciple" whiehare breughrabour 'by the circulation of me ocean. The Gulf Stream has; ''riven north-westernEurope .8. Iclima.'tero:ughly eCJuiV'a~ lent to char round in other parts of the: world from, ten eo fifreen degrees, further south, and conversely tneHum .... boldt Currenrof cold water of£' 'the west CO!iS't· of SOUdl Am\erica has made northern Chile and southemPeru Inuch more habitable: than otherpsrts 0'£ 'the tropics,. Currents '011 this vast scale are of course uneontrollable, but thereare other cases where control, though it may be impossible, is .110e unimaginably impoesible. Por ex .... II' ttml?]e~the' Bering Straitis only fifty miles wide and. not V'ery deep, and gre·at currents flaw through it to and from the .Arctic Seal. If it were 'blocked I' 'these currents would cease, and it may he: thatthe climate cfnorthwes,tAmericamd, north-ease Asia'\vould be considerably change~--though Lhave no idea, whether it would. be for rhe better or for the worse. Ifit coul d 'be confidmtly

61

T'H.BNEXT' Ml'LLION YEA.'a.S c:ailc1l1l1ted 'mat it would. be very much for the better, so that an area ofthe size of a. small continent was 1113do .hibiea:bl,e through the blocking" itm:ight become worth 'wlille considering the devotion of quite a fraction of~e whole w\Q,rld' s resources t{) the Stu:fH:l.ld!ous, task.

,On an. ,altogemersmaJler scale there is the qu.estion ' . '. rain ... ,makin;g,. -As, is weUkno,Wi1, it has r.ecently been fourtd 't'ha:t when there are heavy clou,d~,whlch are nearly .ram .. ing, they may he made -to. rain with the help of solid carbon diQxidep,ow'lier'. The' cl:oud was vetyne'ar ~C) point of l.nstability ~ and the small stimulus _ was enouih 1i)O 'copple it over, The most obvious use that could De made, of the' ,pl'Iocess is not acrually to ma1:e rain." but ,rather to choose the place where it shall fhll Thus un ... wanred rain m'ight be- made to fill in. the sea, or it lnigbt be possible, for a, district: needing rain. 'to ,get it out .• ,cloD~ds;~which wo,wd otherwise have only let their .ram faU latet in another region; political c,omplic:atiolls see$. very possible if this shouldbe done,

Thl:s rain-making depends. Ion the air condition-s heing on the ¥erge ofinstahiHry. for: 'then pr,a,ctic~ny noener is needed to make the ,clouds rain, It is q uite different in ordina;ry .condirions ,ofwea'ther, fo,r ,then it would em feu: :an ,enOtInolIS e~pendtture of energy to change , 'weather" wheme.r· to make it rain, or to stop it from raining, At the pfeJettC' titne we do, ,not' know at allh •. ~k1.'i FX.T wesl10uld goa-bont the bu!mlsa, even if: we did hive . energy a:vwa.blell,bu:t m~ spite of this, ignorance we still cor.t£d,.e:ndy say~ frOM the .' ~eneru principle ,energy, that it 'would not be WOlrrli while ttyil':lg~ . would be the use of fllHllg a large wa.ter reservoir

ti~

MATERIAL CONDIT,IONS

means '0:£ rain, ifit took more 't'hanaJI me hydro-eTecmc ;ow,e! derivedfrom that reservoir to makethe ram'? A rainy season. in the centre of the Sahara, which would, be good for 'agriculture, might for all 'we know be ,produced by the use of a million tons of coal, but it would, certainly eall for far less to irrigate 'the: des!ert by distillin,g: waterat the shores of,the'Mediter.rmean and caI'lying ,it: '(here by road or through a pipe~ In the light of these considerarions it does not seemlikely tha~ man canever do ,3, great deal sbcur direcdy ,altering his climares,

.1.. .. =_ -," II . '"

_A 'cIUJIlg tnar wi - '. assume enormous unportmceq w,re:

soonisthe exhaustion of 011[' fuel resources. Coal and oil have been accumularing in the earth for over five hoo-

d d milli . 'd- . - theeresenr -c .. 'f--' d . d

----- "-~-'I ~'," -, ,_,., - '.-' ~'.' L', -."1 ! ."-'-_,',' II -,'," "j._' '_."--,: ',. '''''1'':

, re_ ..... _ ,011 yeat's, ,atl,=-" at t_-_eplesen:t rates CL __ eman._ ,

formechanical POW~[~, theestimaresare th_ar oil 'will he all gone in about a ic:en.rtlry.~md ooalptioba.bly in a 'gL')'od deal less, thanfive hundred yelars~Po,r the present purpose it does not matter if these are 'Under<srimates~they Icould be double'd, 'or ITe _=:. and, still no-taffecr the: ar:gu~ m,ent.Mechanical powerco'mes from our reserves of ener,gy ~ md we are squandering our energy capit_d quite recicle-ssiy; it will 'V'ery soon be all gone,~ an.d in me long run we shall have to live from year 'to year on. eill!' earnings. All theenergy fr'om coal and oil carne ft·em the .col1v'l~;rsion, of the ener'gy of 's'unlight: income chemical energy contained in plant,s ~ the. conversion is, not v;ery 'cfficient,and left to itself thevegetahle kiugdom eertainly will not year by year produce even _I'~motely enough energy to 8~a.dsfy our present scale of demand, Wa:ter p,ower' is the only really hig present source ,of

63

THE NEXT MILLION YEARS

lenergy that can he counted as income and not capital; it derives its ,energy from sunlight too, through the evaporaeion of' water in the ocean ,and its precipitatisn as rain on the mountain tops .. Though water pow'er is important, it contribnres a .fairly 5,DUU fraction to the present demands of the world" and estimates do not sug gesr that it could ever expand so as to supply the whc of the demands,. During me long run of ,3, million yeats,

a great deal rnore energywill be needed. _,

It is worth giving consideration in a little detail to tke shortage '0'£ energy, both because of its tremendous :uuportanee to human life, and because it is possible to. speaR about it with scme confidence., 'There are going to he 'many shortages of all som of things in the futute;ror example, metal mines will be exhausted" and many me metals we now use will run short some day-- some of them. in the very near furore-but it can reasonably b expected that fairly good substitutes will be found for them, But energy is different; there: is no substitute for energ.y~ and 110 way of cl'eating it. It is no use :a:dopting the Micawber attitude that "something will tum u,p."l' an attitude which mav be admissible over the shor,cag,es

Ill· ". ~

of metals; hut not fo[' ,energy, because £01"' that' no. - .. -~

,'at~ tum up .. The utmost that can be done is eo dis"cover 'ilie' key to unlock some known but ,at present unavsil able source of energy, This is, true even of what mau:r. will1"egard as a newly discoveredsource, atomic eneIg~i for the existence of this ener:gyhas been long kno,;·,-.and the novelty is thar the key bas, only recently been fo-und .. In the light of these considerations, I shall devote at little .space 'to considering wh.at are the £utureprospeGls

64

MATERIAL C;ONDIT'I'ON'S

energy for the use of humanity, and trom wha,t urces it may be derived ..

Atomic ,energy has been much discussed in recent cars as, a source ofpower which may ultimately replace 'IL It is certainly too early [0 estimate this with connee" but the pro~pects are really not ve'fY bright .. The Illy method of getting atomic power. which is at pre.... mt ill sight, is froID uranium, Now uranium is a, fairly « mmon element, commoner than silver but not as,

, - nlD1011 aB lead, but present estimates suggest that the

'tal energy that could be derived fronl the earth's iranium is very roughly as much as: has come and will "me from coal; it is Wllikdy 'co be ten times as much, ~ nd it is certainly not a rhousand tunes as much, so that It would not help in the Ions' ages co come, MO'lCOVer rhere are very few mines, where it is strongly eencen-

ated, and for the lest it would he .3. costly and des.true_, 'ive business, [0 work over vast bodies of poor ore in rder to winrelatively tiny quantities of uranium,

The matter is, made only a ll'rue better- by theexistence

. f the' rather commoner element thorium, which has not y,ft been tamed into giVing up atomic- energy, - hougl this will probably happen some day, The pro-

,- ,i, f t::_ •. thori c.

ucnon 0 energy nom uranmm or . O!lUIn, as :Laf

,s we can judge" will always have to be done ill Upiles'U', wruc.h have to: 'be very large uni"~s if they arc to wJo,rk · t aU, so that the distribution of the power to the users is itself quite a problem. Furthermore there are

_ ally for.midable' secondary diffICulties associated with making en.ergy from uranium, There is the fami1iar political danger that: it is, impossible 'to; ge'f 'the power

.1 6,s

THB, N.E,XT' MILLION YBAR.S

without a't the same time :makmg large amounts of e'x plosive material suitable for a,t~m. bombs, Then also

'rl'i-., ..... ,II",., O'iIti"e: mad ,R large q- uantities o'-"'f; intens ... 1,:- -, ,d--I"", i'I,~.~' ,I

~""Ioo"""'" a.io' ", ", iii. , .. """ ' ..... ".''iooc, c· .......... _ ..... I!..!.. ,.,' ;LIi • .iI. "'"' ' ~"Cly rak:_lO-~."I:ve

fusion products, 'the cinders of the fumace, and, even the p,resc'nt rime, when developments are still almost rudimentary, 'the disposal of-these, cinders is ,a formidable problem. On 'the whole, then 'the prospects of p'ow'~ fr.olm, uranium are not very good; it m.ay be a useful p'al1iadve:in the energy sb,o',[tage'~ bu'[ It almose certUnl,.

will nort provide a. long-term -solution,. ' '

I:t: is well known that there' may he a ,po'risibility " making a'tcrnic explos:illes; from hydrolgen~ and. ,smee tlUs ii ~ source olf energy, it mi,gh't some day 'be' ,made ,into I, fuel to yield, power, It is, th.e Isotope, heavy hydr,&gen. that w,ould be used, and th,ough ',its, proportion, in bydro,g~ or in warer. it, very small" still 'there ate bfcna.d]y speaJdn~ unlimited ,s:t'o,ckl of it,. In practice it 'taktt a good deal of energy to separate it out {r'om the or'dmary hydrogen, b~t theamount is ,trivial;comp,GDd 'to the ener;f!~Y it would yield ,fte'r the slepara'rion", Thelli" s~em~ litde dOUbt mat the .heavy hydrogen. will, so ' dB!y be made fa c'xplode with the help 'of a suital,Je 1~~t'Q~I,tOf'j burr: this would be useless, aSi II source of pow"r: :fo .. r' tha:t ,purp,08ie iris necessary that it should be madete

tUb .. u 1 'I ,,-, ,.. ' ."~ . . c

oum a ow_ y. and thlsma:y be an insoluble, pro blem,

If~ h,owe'vel', it ~iu]d he dOl1~, it migbt 'y.ildd a permanil!ttt s,oludon !of the fuel pr'olblem ..

To, complete the picture of atomic energy. ther,e'.it ordittaty :hydr' a, 'which PloteDtially C'o,ntain! most energy of all, It is _ ordinary hydrc,g,en ,at1ltnS clutt yie,ld th,e cner'gy which keeps the SUD and stan ,hoc; 'thisthcy

66

MATE,IlJAL C,ONDIT,IONS

'0 tlu:oluSh I series, of :ra'ther' complicated teacti:ons, at , -c Or~(nlS 'temper~tures whiCh gradually wlit th.~m aeo helium. through the agency ofa,toms s:uch as carbon Lftd nirr'og~~ As_ far as we can ju.d,ge thiSI ,energy is, pee-

I - ~endy locked up in the case of the hydr'o,g;n. on

arth", and perhaps it: is I, :g.oo,d. thing;. for ifiE were net 0., ~erle would 'be quite :1 probability some day of ID

~plosion which would, w,;:ck the whole: earth., and in,deed th,c solar sys,tem ThE' ~'burnin,S~'; of hea.vy : lydrogen must alw,ays be c'oD.troll;ble" because it 'bas '£-0 'he pr'ecededb,y the laborious separation of it ttom lordin~ry hY'ctr,ogell'j but if it, were ,pos'sible' leasily '00 "burn" lordinary hydrogen,. sooner 01 later some ,mad .... , man, or perhaps a- disappointed would-.be wo,rldi,...dic_ tor, would set fire co the sea in IUch. an uncO'!1'U"oD,able

,2.y chat the wave ,ofbummg, would, consume all 'me b,ydrogen on the eaeth, A rough calculario'D showl Utat tbe energy would be enough -'to make the ,earth, shiue

or more than ten years 2S bri.ghtly as the sun does DOW~· It' would make the solar system into I very re'spcctable' n ~w star" On th.e 'whole it is 'Vlery sa'ds{actory dlat 'we:afe never likely to be' able tOI "bum" O'U[' hydrogen~

Finally. there is ,a, coneei,vahle'sloUtee' ofe'fters'Y' ill tha, 11_ Fo~ this kind c.fcalculatioD it is, CODvemenit ~Ol us:; the prin ...

Idple of relc.tivitI_atl,d, co,unt energy by' in wleight in £:008,. The sun r diatlMl four miUion toas of energy' everysccond .. To estimate th,e amm.mt of hydr'Q,gen on the earth, T a;S&ijme thl,t 'the sea ho,lds

ost of i.t. The a.mount of wat-er in the se,a has been csdma.ted lit -:b~,llt _1.4 x 1018 tqIlS._ One-rWt~h of trus weigh.t is, hydrogen.,

~,~~~ ~r ea~~:,~~_o._r.:, .byd,fOscD.eJi:sh~ p~ts .in.~ a ~ous.- .md Bre' aYaJl~, I bl£_(Of' ,I. ·to~~ ~crgy.:. _The _res~t ~SI.,.~2 ... x I01 .. ID to!1~ 0'£ m.~-.·,er!:

I as, much as 15 !lv,en by the sun lD thre:e hundr,ed .miUiOD, Secon,· ....

~bidl, iJ abollt ,~n. years,. . ,

,&,

THE NE.X,'T MILLIO'N YE -RS, annihilation of matter, This, would give a sup'ply hun" dreds 0'£ tim. -s, more poten.t ,than the "burning' of hydro,gern into helium, and it would p:resumably be hundreds :of'tiII1CS more devastating" but it is Iquite 00- bOWD whether it can happen at all even in the h - '_ interiors o:f sears, II: U; sale [,0 sa,y that long before Itb:.source ,co,old, b used" 30m - of the milder fo,.rmsaeomie lencl',gy would eiehes have be -0 made ,:lvailabJ I or else: w'Duld llave desercyed tb,C world,

Since the' prospect' of getting atomic power on a. really luge seale seC'111:S not very good, Bllid since water power, which is, much 'the most :S[r, 'gh,tforw,ard source r ' eaer,RY' is glomg 'to b maid, quat -~" :i'[ is important ro 'consi -. -;: w.ba't o'rher sources mi 'hr L~_I_ -plaited" P'ossiblc :SO'UfC _ _ in addirio,tl 'to -G _ -,'liODll all- '[he direc:rt use ' s,unJjgill'ti• wmd,tidcs, me int riOf' heat ,of the earth. an _ the cold w,atr at the blotto'm of :th sea, Some of these can 1- -V-I" pr o,vi de: large P.OWI' IS, and others fJrtl1fer frO!Dl heiD. ' 'YBnr ,diffuse in their distribution, but they: :alI

I. ~ ~.

d-' 'd-"

_ '_'e,rv- 'CODS1,c'eratton.

The internal heat of the ,ew is, alr,eady being IC~p!oic - d I,t an instiUIDon in Iraly,~ wllJ. - lie steam is rais ,d by'~ '__~pin- water into bo,t 6sS'UI~_' in £be earth. There mly be other p]a.c,es; _: here 'this could be'done, thoue .

· • h- .Jil' 11!~"L I ell' tn h 1 al 'r:'-d" d" '.

If I,S . .a.Ew Y ,.IliL\c:, y to _:: e on a a ,'ge se IJ ,e. UlJ' ee '. in prm-

ciple ie' would he possib,le 'to use any volcano ,as the furnace of 9" p,o,wer station but it il hardly a praJ:ti; 7' proposition in view ofcll,e unreliable habits of volcano,~I. The exUc ·l·CC of volcanoes, is .attribll~e.d t!o deep C(,Q'-'I : in, ,tt .ground I' w:hich ar m,e,gula:r' intervals of arne let, in

168

M.AT ~Rl;= L C·QINDJ:TIONS

_ arer to aI. depth, where it is, boiled under pressure s,o that it explodes our again,. This, ,sugg,ests, the possibility £har man might I lirectly t'ap' this source ofhel,t by, so to , eak, making artificial volcanoes 'which he controlled that they never [leached the surface, H - at lei: ies not

_ow out fro.m tb,c centre of the earth ve'fY fas,t, and othing thar :m n ,mighr do could affect this I' te, 'since e can only hop to, work on the outermost few miles , fthe earth's shelL Bsrimared on a. 'world scale the [otal 1e1'lergy available is not very ,great, and the besr he could hope [or would be to make a few deep borings, and raise,

ream in them, He: might hope to keep these 'belring'S under control, but even i-he was successful in this" ,th!er,c would still be a price '[10 ply, for his disturbance ftbe [,cmpera.rures in dlf: earth's shell would almost certain , '" oner or later lea to earthquakes. In the lighr fthese considerations not much can be expecred from the earth's intemalh at, beyond a hew more' stations like 'the

ne in I.t.a1 y.

An experimental installation hasbeen set u:p~ or ,at allY rate p['opose.d,~ with, the' im ofderivillg pow',' uln the

I i.Jlt:-fiel1rCle in tern perature between the surface wate f of the 5'e11 and. rbe Wlar,C[ at the bottom, Wber'fiV',f!f there is any temperature ,differ _ ce ir is theoretically possible to ge~ power fronl itt, b'ut: the amount depends on the' magnitude of this d iffe:r,cllce,., In the dc'pth.' 0'£ the o'~eans in all latitudes, the water is only a degree or 'two above freezingJ and in the, tropics ~l't the surface it is perhaps ,go°F .. , :50 mat there is, no :grea:t margin to work Ion" and enormous quantities 10'£ water 'w,ou1d have ~Oi be handled [0 get any reasonable 91D!Ount of p,ow,er., , he possibiliry

,6g

T.HE NEX'T M,ItL.ION YEARS

ofdili plower is guaranteed, by basictheory, but'l do ,11e"£ mOiw' 'what mechanism wouldactuaUy realize it~ It w'ouldo,nly' be feasible to '~ap this source in special places, such as tropical oceanic islands, for only in such' -places ·wo,u1.d there: he a high surface temperature together 'with. proximity to d~e~old ocean depths. It~~y be con-

jectured that this source of energy would be 'too, expen-

sive to he much. used. -

The 'wind blow'S on aCCO'lJDt of unequal headng 0:£ different patts of theearrh, so mat its en.ergy is: derived from. sunlight, like '1:hac ofwater:~po,'wel" or of the fuel. we are now burning up. Ie could provide cOllsid~eE'able amounts. of power 'by means ofw,mdmins'~ 'The difficulty is that eac:;h windmill can only coll~ct' a ra:mer s'mal! ameunt IOfellel"gy:~ a.nd. this It irregular times, and SO,. 'to make :m"~ wind a. really useful source of p,ower'" SQilne method ofs,tormg me··eners:y is quite essential., The mo:st:' ,straigll:tforwatd 'way of doing this is, £:0 have a larg'o,

b f' mill hi . h · '-,.,'

nwn :~er 0 -' au ,s, w _-_ c - pump water l1ip mro a res:erv,Qli

whenever thewind b]ows.~ andthen whenthe power ~s demanded, the water of this reservoir is used hydroelectrically'. 'This .tends tolimit:such a scheme 1:'0- hiU¥ COtmtty" whereche djffeX'enc~s in, levelmake it possibleto,consttUtt the reservo'its., A m,Q.tepr,ontable: development, not YC'E ins~ght"would be I the inventi.on of :s'ome re.cheap way ,of storing energy cbemically,; th.e' ordinary electric ,s,\tora;ge har:teryb: ,exacdy the kind ,ot thing. needed" but it is fartOQl eJfpensive'.lndeed if ,my cheap device should be discovered, whether de,pending: oa .mechanical or eleetrieal or chemical or'm.y ·atheil" p:r:incip,les'l which would store large quanti des elene.rtf'

70

".A A' T-- '~'n -I' A- L-' ·C· •. ' ·0··.· .•..• N····· D"· I T' . ]' 0-' ~N- ~

J'Y"'-"'- L~LA' I_,~ '".,1,.' __ 1. _-, -"---'_,. _,',_ 'Ii]!

,rea.sonably efficiently, it would g'o .a very long wa.y towards: solvmg thewhole powerproblem, whether ,the energy carne frem, the' wind ,oE"myo,ther' source, AF

.' ~,~ '. . d' d annl "j .... 1L ".1

sUlrung suen anmvennon mac e ana app_.lt:tlL '[01 trl.e·WlnO'I'

,the economic picture of ,tile world wculd 'be very rlifferen:t :!ro,m, what i~ is now» 'because wealth will tend to beas.socia:ced.wim easy power' supplies, Since it 'is ,always Ukd.y' 'to be w.as'tcful 'to tt,a.:nsmit power over long tUstalu:es, it would be the wil'J.dy regions of the e,ardl that would, flourish; these 'would. include the' areas of the trade wittds~ many deserts where ,I 'wind. springs up'

- .......•.. "." d· - 'C .d~ rh ... '.' 'f> - ' .•. - ..... '.~. . fl .... '., .··hl-~· ich a· -'.' e~.l- . ·d' r·. l. ": - ,:h'

every .- ay, an, . Ii. 'e ·s",ormy ,Heas w :_1,~_r,e loun.ln '[J118 .

northern and southern ladtudes,. In these r,egions them

Id~ b-' .' .' 'd- -~ 1_. . r-- · dmill

WOUJ=· 'i.es,et up .great rows an,·.' J:a.i'lKS 'Q' WJln· •.. m '. S '1:0-

,Bether with the devices, fOf a,toring the ,energy,. How ftf' schemes of cllis kind lnay develop will depend on ho'w suc:ces:sfully m,e sterage problem is solved" and :i.t is probable that if it is solved, the wind. will be an impor~' 'cant contriburor 'to the world's power problem,

The tides are an 0 bvieus possible source cfpcwer, An interes:dng point Is tha;tthey 'would tap a. S,Ol\I',Ce 01£1

. • -- JI~.a": I:.. h h 'b- U··' " £

en.ergy q'Ulte IQilIer,en't' [rom tne or ier pos,Sl.:-ltleS1 I'O'r

'their: po'wer would be pardy derived. fi-'OIM 'me rQ'tational energy of the e:artll and p,artJly fr,omthe orbital cllergy' of' ,themc1o!); the use of:tidal ener'gy slightly lengthens bo,m the da.y- and 'dlt~ month, Some useis of course already made of the: tides! £"0:1' power'; for eXlmple~ the English fens, are pumped out by openm,g the sluice gltel ;tt-:low tide and. -shut.cmg them at high tide, Thiet;e are also '1tti1:c: ,I num,b,er Q'£P'I"oposals, 'whe~e the tlrl;'ain'i:1 suitable IS on cbe River Siv,em. :for makinl' bmas······es whichtrapl me

, - '-'- .'. . I· - . -- - ,.. I . -- -' ,- '- - - - ._ - - - --

.. , . ;:___:,

71

THE NEXT MIL.LION YEA,RS tide at high water and generate hydro-electric power frOiDl it .. Even under the most favourable circumstances there is me' mconvenience of the fOI'1l1i,ghtly cycle, durhtg each fortnight the tides, vary ill height by a fact,m:', of three between springs and neap!, and high tide is. Qt, 'varying times of day, so that some form' ,of enetg$ s,torage is quite essential, This applies even when die conditions are most favQurab,le, and the difficulty would be far greater ifit:were: at'teI'l1;ptcd to coI~ect ,power' frnm. the rides Ol~ the .open coasts, The same difficulty would arise there that arises with w'ind powe~r, ~fIIavil1g avert large amount of energyspread very dilfusdy:~ so that·~ really cheap method ofstorage is essential ifit~ collectiea is ever to be at ~al1 practical It must als:o, he remerl1bered dli,t the tides, in the 'Open ocean are onlY' a, foot or mar in height':,aJ1d. th:a;trhere are not 'very- marry parts of die c'arth where thecoastal configt.'l:ra.tion enhances them to a magnb:ude that would be easy to exploit for power, 'Britain is one of theSe;a11d if 011ce the stcrra,geprob.lem Call be solved, here ,wId in the other favoured areas d~e rides Gould makea 'useful contribution to the power problem.

The direct use ofsunligh:t 'would be' one of the most eEective:ways of getting power. .Akeady in sui:tabl~ climates it is used for 111~~,ting' Wfl'tcr by absl()I'bitlg heat ,on the blackened surfa,oes ofwater tanks, hue this is trivial c0mpared to what might be: JJoped fOr.,Oltc IJ"bviottg way of getting power w''Ould be to use: the heat of the sun to raise s'team~by c()ncentrating it on to the surfac:e,of ,I bouer by means of abunring gla$sl!or more probably ,~ reflector, It would be a for:rnida;ble problem, for the

72

MATERIAL CO.NDirrIONS

total amount of heat falling all 3. sq uare yard faclllg the

un is about enough in each minute of rime 1:0 levapora'ce tUlly a qUattC'I of an ounce of boiIillgw.ater into steam, so 'that to make an ,e],~gine: ofreasonahle size a very latge· area would be needed. 011. rh"e adler hand, the efficiency 'of the ,e~gine would be very .good~ for the temperature ,of s'll1ili_ght is six thousand degrees centigrade; rlds is ,the actual t!.n1:p·er.aturc of the sun's surface, and it signifies that the sun's rays could. ideally raise a. boiler to this ternperarure. It is this tem.perature' that matters for efficiency, and it means that rhe remperature of the boiler n'eedonly he limited by th!e strength ,of the materials it', can be made ofThe resultmight be 'to' convert perhaps a .fifth of theheat inca power ~ all this basis something like a rhirdof'a horsepower could ideally be obtained frO.Ill It square yard'; this, is not g:rounda.rea hue area measured fadllg 'directly towards the' sun, 'which of course will demand a b.i~gerarea on the ground,

The possibility of getting the solar energydire,cdy in chis way is inlpressive,~ but the' technica1 difficulties would be very form.idahl,e indeed, Apart from all the ordinary difficulties ofbig engineering proj ects the chief would probably he that it would be: necessary ro ,(:,011- centrate 'the heat frolna good many square yards on toa rather small focus.~ £or it is only so dUlt [be beat losses cculd be avoided which would. destroy the engine's efficiencY'i and this. must somehow be done in spite of the sun'smoriou all through_ the ,day" 'and, its dit1eriet1t heightat differ.e:n:t times of year .. Deserts, where the SIDl always shines and there is no rainy season, would be the best places for solarengines, The power wculd

73

T'HE NEXT' MILLION YIAllS

Q,nly come ill daytime, and this would be: leis, inCOD v,cnicn,t than tidal pow'er~ hut still it 'would be neat:lr ess;entialco be' able 'to, store ,it" Alc,ogether' it would 'be 31 tremendous undertaking. There ma,y of course be di5GOVered either ways of gcctiDg-n,ergy out o,e sunlight; for example, there may be chemical p'J:lOCeSSCI, whicli would imitate those of the vegetables, but more r:fticielltly~ There is also the pOlsihility '0£ gettLftg ,th I ener,iY photo--electticilly~ that is to say 'b.y causing the light directlytol make electric currents~ A,e pr,esebt tbis ~s a hopelessly inefhcien:t method. 'but it cannot be excluded that some new idea might make' it feasible. andthcl1. it would prohably 'be die best ,of all, Of aD ... 1.. "'bI f-' 'n' ~ h d' . £ 'me pDSS:Jl~, eways 0,: , co, ~ectlnl 'energy.~ t ie ,: 1tect use 0 .

sunlight is the mOlt pro:misDl8'ii

Finally, i,t may well PIOV,;:,- tha't the vari.ous d,evicci discussed above are all of them too cempllcared and troublesome to, be really prlctical,and rhat it is, best 'tl) exploit the method 'used by nature, the ve,ge:table!! Th:-~ weuld have to bel 'v,as't plmtatilo:ns,pr'oduc:ing potlt,Oes orsome such plana in enormous 'quantities" which Icould be ;macc into ,lnd'Ultrial alcohol far power. O',r perha:Pi,_it might b-e ,poslible' 'tOI exploit me' ocean" b,y coUecbng; ,the micrc:scopic vegetables, floating 0,1'1, its surfa~e,~ The quand'ty 0:£ thisl, plankton ,mus:t be vast", but it is 'l~pIead very

... L.l . db' 'U" I CI "",11 d- ~- ='1!~~ 1 'b

'~uD~, m=. ,t . ,",e coi jtCtlCll Wo'w·_, ee :1, 'v'ery QJlI!CU _,t pro .. :1!iI1

lem, ,Howlever that may be, and whcrever the Ivegetables grew, there would be all the trouble over 'had le~ollland peifilencesl that' we' know' too well,akmdl"i~

d s . ,. • b II that em __ ,1_ OJ hi:- • ,..;;:L

an _ It 18 pOISS1-~le . - ~,a't enormous gree.Wlouses,lfiW,_"C- '{;D

me' plants 'grew under accuraeely: ,controlled,concHaoDl 74

MATE"R.IAL C'O'N'DITIONS

_ igh,t pay better; hut whatever' W,IS found beltwoul,d have to be on .,:1 vaseseale, because of' the eomp'arative ine~ciency of ' the 'vegetahle in convertmg sunligh.t into energy,.

I think 'this clo~pletes the Hs,t ,o£.all reasouab,jy pOlliblm

curees ,of energy. and. ap,art fro,1n ordinary water---power

"':L, ul'·', . · - -L,.!._· h dl ., .,

we resu :rs are not encouraging. T IOJ II rar~_ y Burprumg,t

Cor it certainly involves a-great dealmore work, to liva en ineome thanon the accumulated 'ca:pita~, ofgeolDgicd ,_g ~S,!! Our present ,civiliz8,tion is largely based on the provision ,ofm~c~ power. and Ifit is tocontinue, ~t weuld seem, likely that ,I good, :fracdon of buma.rtity' will have to be engaged in coUectin,1 energy, eidler biy'

"00' ,; - 'b f~ 1..1_ - - b" _j!-

mmc mg vast .num,-ers ,O,:_: machines, or -'1 t,eAQwg'

vegetable$ inplmta.,tians., it, will have to be a, far g,r,ea,~r' number' than those now' engaged In mines, andpower&,tat:icns~ It is, rather likely 'chat the' natural inefficiency ot' :mankin,d will pre'vent him from realizing to the £iill the possibilities of whIning energy out of nature, and 'ma,t' be will often find th,at.he has 'to Is,et OD with ftlluch less of i,lt~

Turning now to olther q u;csrJ:.o:ns of the futUl'e cendi ....

Ii'ons gftbe wor.ld, it is Dflco,utsle Uk,ely tba;t many tech~

. at ; · b tho f" tili - .' d f-' 1 ill' -13

mc_~:_:mventlom,. _0' o'_-: u-rty ane 0': _'uxury, W~: ee

,~ ,.1- :-'-'.b""~ 'h -- c ," " .. r., 'd'l', a)'1 -' '11- - d - ,. il" f' b, __ ._- '

mane, W",-lC:, may p'rcIoun.~ ,1' '-ter tne " eta ,. Qj_: numan

life. As I have alrea.dyexplamed. in an learlier chap'ter, however, and as will be developed more fWly Jailer. these are only co be regarded ,as details sU,per,posed gin me' ., 1-'· . r- ~_'I'~ • d'i ,Lmmeruey more Important quesnons or popuianon an~

ofhuman nature,. It is tbercfc're 1101: w'orth en~:ering' on. wild, speculatioDS ,abio'ut them, .£(U~ sueD ISlpccwa'ti.oms

7'

THE NEXT MILL'I,ON YBARS

would. surely beas wrong as the speculations of a :natur~ philosopher. of two centuries ,ago would have been abou our p'llesent. conditions. It ,ma.y he noticed" however I! tOiQl rhe biological sciences, which in the nineteenth oenttm:y rather la"gged behind the physical, are beginning to shaw promise of quite astonishing new advances.

The proper consideration of these biological advance,s must for the most part he' deferred. to later chaptt'rs,but I Dlay list 'some of them here without discussion, Th~~e is' first the possibility of new sources of food; for ex,ampl ifgra.ss or wood could be rendered edible, it is. safe to s;ay th_at there would be immediately .a great increase in th· population of the world. Thenthere is._ the' p'[obahillcr that'llledica1 science will continuestill further the g.re:a:t" triumphs it can ~I'e,a.dy cJ·aim in rhecenquest of disease, It is . MS'O not impossible that medical sciencemight sue ceed in, materially- lengthening life without seniH~ dl0Ugh in a world of overcrowded p.opulation it is Bot ve·.y clear what 'would. be gamed. Lo,oking a little deeper th.~re is the poslsibility of substantially altering the int~ lecrual and moral natures 10£ individuals by some sort 6£ hormonal :injections:; ,dr~dy 'grea.'t effec:ca have been produced.on animals. Finally, as the most curious, sp,eaniii lation of all" it' is not quite impossible tha·t it may OBe day bt2 feasiblet10 select in advance the sex of each- c'bihi 'tllat is to, be born. 'Whether 'the decision is made by ,the ,paren'h, lor 'by ·their rule.r,s, this suggests the probability of a great unbalance in the populations of the world~ ij,efore discm,sin,g these matters, however'; it isnecessary eo look deeper into! man's nature, and this, will be' 'dte subject «)f the next three chapters,

76

v

TI-IE $PECIE,S HOMO SAP'IENS

THE central thing thar goes to make up history is nO'E me external condirionaof rhe world, 'but the nature of man rumsd£, and this will be the ,subJec[ of the f resenr and the next two chapters, Mall ism animal, but

'~1I • a1 d i di . hi .. .

1 SOCIal anuna J" ana m . ,lscussmg • urn 1..t 15 convenient to

draw a line between his own inherent nature, and the: 'way he is influenced by the' society in which he' lives: ,the' distinction between these is of course only a yery rough

DC .and there is much overlapping. In the present chapter, I shall regard man as ';1 hiological specimen like any wild animal, and in the next I shall consider how' he is influenced hy the societyround hint; but then the' j,mportftU'e question arises as to the balance between these rival influences, and tha;t suhjc1ct is reserved for 'the chapter following,.

One of the interesting recent developments of geology has been the possibility of dating the past with far ,grea['er accuracy than cculd be done befere, Several

d!·~ th··· d h· b '1' d h"·_1..· ..

I rtterent mel - 0,;5; ave -=' een app te 2., wnicn agI'ce In

their broad results, but I shall not go inro themhere, The dating has been specially accurate in relation to, the recent ice a,ges and this means, that it can he applied with

... -.-.', ... ,·.-,.c·d:· '., ., , .... 'Xl,' "i:!kna anim . als and p···I·:""t"i.~·O· ',~.- .~ ,0' if::'

some CODD. "ence 0 e··· "u.LJ;~ ~. .aJ., . '. " ,~ .. ;). ne '

the things. discovered from the study of the. remains of

'77

TH:E NEXT' MlLLION YEARS this period is the answer to the question -in the evolll_ tion oflife, how long does, i.t take to' makeanew speclfs,? The answer is a, million years, That is the reason £o,r the title I have' chosen for chis essay-for a million yean to eeme we have got to put up 'wi:th all the defe,ct-s in man·s naeure as it isnow,

It is hardly necessary tOlsay that there is nothin;g v'et)' exact abo'llt this million years. Some species chal\-ge more 'q,uickly and some more' slowly, but it doe's, seem 'to be a good rough rule~,and curiouslyenoughie seetn$

"I 'to' a.pply more or less irrespective of the number 9£ generatio,ns in the: million reaif,s~whicb of coufsewotild beinllllense[y more :for an insece or a rat _ than for I Duffallo ora 'man. The million years may perhaps not b a v'cry close estimate; it might feVal pr'?'vttol be only hal! a million lor' p'0,ssihly two' million for man, but' .it, is hardly possi:ble it ,should 'be as, short a's, a hundred th~'usand years. So it is; good enough to assumethat i~ is a million years, :and if this is an over-estimate, the reduced length of time' is still long eno'U'gh to give a fair ,avera,SC:

of human, hlseory, .

It is a vex.ed qoestion exactly what the word SP!€'J!S :mC~5 mid many answers have been :(;ivlen, 'but perh~i"

. . ./!'"h . b h '. ,1:.:'

the best answer so rar was 't ;.atglven r.~y tne cynic wuO

stat,ed U A speCies is what ·,2 trained tRxonomis.t sa.ys is. ,a speicies,~'~,.,Thl$, does not see~, to advance: the :su'bjcct veFf much, but it is, a fact ,that the'tlsUneld taxonomists" who have frequently dis~I(,eed ,among: themselves :a.bout other sp·ecies~ are all :;t'g;,~,eed dlat ,the: species h,o,,!,o .sap.z"enl includes all the races ,of"humanity,~, There are, howeve~~ cbvious differencEs of complexion ,and fea;ture am,ong

7:8,

THE SPECIES HOMO S,tlPIBNS

them, which constitute' them asv'arietifJ of the speci ::~I'" Sinc'e in 'the histolry of evolution a variety is the startm;B point fOl:' the formation 'Of a new' sp,ecies, It .might be Imagined that, if one of the several races were complletely isolated fro;m the rest; it would slowly 'turn into a separate' s,pocies'; but 't~erc. is no, chance of any such isolation, and anyhow if it should occur It' would take ,3, million year,s 'to make the species" ,and so it would (all

beyond the span of time I: amcobsidering. _

It is natural to, believe that, when ther_ are such obvieus. differences of complexion between the va:rir:'tUs races of man. there should go with these some differences in brain and in mental characters hut thep,s,ych~ logists and antb!l0p'0logbtl have found it d~cub 'to detect them" In mental characters the range of variation insid.e each individual race is very 'wide in-deed, so m'uc~ so 'that it entiI1ely submerges ,an,y difference in rachd characters, if such there, should hie'. So it is, not useful to give any consideration to differen.ces. of race; in ev,ery race there are big;hly inteUigent people and very s,rupid. ones, and all mmkind di$pLfy the same characreds,tics of pugnacity t ambition, envy, lazin~ss~ selfishness, unselfishness~ loyalty'. klndlmess, s,ociability:1 sense Qfh'umoDr and so on. T" here 0lItT';i:i!; of course obvicus difference's, in

' • .:_, ~I '.' - .. ~!t ,. 6: ~ ~1¥' - _ '_ , __ JlI- w _ __ _ _ _ _

behaviour between individuals ott account of diffe:rellteS of co.nditio,n and. of training' or educadoln~ which 'I shall discuss in the next chapter •. but it 15 correct to say that man, really is, one species and th:u: as such:it will 'take' a million yeus 'before anything ~otablJ' di1fuent will arise' in his nature, This, is a fixed pomr. whic'b can be taken as 'the ,cen.u,al 'thing mat makes

7'J

TliE :NEXT MILLION YEARS

possible the predicdon of his history fO:J:3. million 'YeafS~ and IlQ Ionger,

As an, animal, man, issebjecceo all the rules of h~~ airy'" the general principles of which havebeen full, worked out, even rhongh much of ~he detail is' still unknown forme human species, ,Of COUtnH2: it hasa1w:a~J been obvious that rbere is a natural 'tendency fOir 01f,spring to inherit qualities £tOtm' me.irpar.,enrs, but 'che prm-

'pl' dis d' b-' 1 dr d' h- M" d-I l~

';1 -<,' ,--,~.,, __ . ,:-,<,-;_"._ ,,_'-:- --: ~,' ,', -,~: ' -', ---::- ,', -~~,' ,,-,,-~, "'---:-_," -:-- ~-,> '-~" ,'_,: ~_---:' r--

Cll, c' es, aiscovere __ , a out anune re _ years ago ,Y " enoe

thQugh not widely ktioml tilltbe present century ~ hi1lve ~e£ined the situation very 11lt1C:h more precisely, Tha.I is not theplace to go deeply into n1e; 'subj et:tllaftd I shall only cite a £ewpoin:ts which ate ge;tfii.al1:C to my pUfpa~~

The, central feature of the Mendelian theory is dl~

I . 1··1 . £':' h-' _.J! . A '.' 111

gf.§:ne, whic 1 IS the unit .0 c.et,t:Wty"i gene IS llSUaJl¥'

I .' d bvi tn·", m' b dil d' 1

-;.",-:, -,." '-':.-·~_':'--_':~",'-':I'r-~ ... "I; ,~:~."~' '_::' "::"';~I'~ .. ~-_ ,:~,,- .. ,' ,_. _,',"- -~,,"-':',: ~ ~.,~' '_""-', -,l,~"::"<-'~~'-"-·'-'

en y f',ecog;lUZe'c_Y us e .. eer (]n c __ eo'~Ly_cveoprnen:t

of'the animal, but the chromosomes in theanimal's cells,

- ,",

which are' strmgs of genes, are easily visible underdle

microscope, and in some cases the pcsition of a g,f:'lle OIQ. it'S chromosome is fairly well k11~)Wn;, ;510 it maybe s~iid 'ChEl't the ge~es, are, particles' mfliving marrer vihichaflt 'Very nearly visible, The glerm cell (}f every;a.nim.a1 C\J1fl .... ,tams, 'a' 'very ,large numbe.l"of!'eue'~,;al1d these di.ctate ,;U1

~1' JI !L f" h - _lill':"l ·1' h· li ~"

tne details e t e animal's 'Q.e've, opmen'r, suen 'as w~,-en1er'

it is, to be tall or short, Hgllt or dark.,alld so on, These are known rules .s0111e ;of them :quite complicated, but 'still perfecdy definite, which. deee~mine how the gen~§ are 'handed on from onegeneraeion 10 the next .. 'The tt(§W g'enier,arion basta have Q: complete outfit of genes, atlti 'tIns it accomplishes by drawing each of them £ra[n its'

80,

THE &1P'E'CIES flOMO SAPI.BNS

,father or irs mother, buenct from both,; it, iapure chance which par'enc: contributes my particular gene., So the offiprirtg contains a, mixture of the genes of its p,arcnts;; and therefore develops a mixtureoftheir qualities. The genes: alman" likethose of ever'y orheranimal, control ,the development of every partof his, body, and this includes his: brain, and since the quality of the brain determines all rhe natural mental characteristics, 'these also fall under the eonttcl of ,tb,eMendeHan laws of inheritance, There is no doubt of this:" bot it must be confessed that up to the pre~N~llc time Utde is, known aboutthe detail of the actual ,gales of humaniry,

It is, throu·gh the inheritance, 'Of qualities luefi.ll in the struggle £01'" life th~u: natural selecticnworks but, 'with the old vague ideas about heredil:)'" irwas rarher hard. 'co se~: how a race of animals could be really benefited. by auy valuablechari1.C'~er that might:lpp-ear in cneof irs members, This atlimars Inate would not usually have the character"md SOl,: according to the old iae~s; theo'ff-, spring would be expected to have it 'co half the extent of '~hefa.voured. parefl'c~ the' second gmera~don to, O'nlya, quarfer~.,and S:O on .. It, seemed therefo.re mat thecharacter would, be' ra,pidly diluted in thesucceeding gener,a,tions" and it was hard to see how, [11 the Iongrun, it could retam enough value to give any signifiC,allt advMl'cag'e. This difficulty is, cleared up hy the M.endeIian :taw., The

.' 'h- .... t, ~'11 h;- 1 h rer h ,£:.J,

parent Wlt: tne v:wua, e enaracter nas a, ge'ne: tortnat

character, which it transmits 011 the average to only half its, offipring, but those that do receive it receive it '~O 'the: :full; the rest do noe get it :at all.Thns, for those who gee it, there is no dilution in '[he quality; ir continues at full

F 81

'T',HB N,BXTI MIL,LI'O'N YIAR.S

,t1CR:DJ:tb land, is abte 'tCI ,give to irs, P10IS5!O[SI 'the :tUU lad. 'vm:tage ma,t, i:c' CIO!mers: in, dly :5'- - - I,e (o,r lli£c'", T,bcre :

,thus, ;1 good p'iOspe:ct' 'th~lt 'dle vaJU!~d~"t- q,uaJli:ty maY'tll SO 'tCI s,p,eak~ hecc'me: anchored to' the species by hieing iD~ Icorpo,ra.reld al110ng the'genes of'the ,111a.jori'ty o,fi.ts meqp heri Ifa dictator should ever :a:spi,re£Q -b,dn,g about so,me ,f!C.all:y ,perml11,len:t ch,m,Gc in .humarucy. be co:uld do ilt :ir~

ilD,d only i£1 he ew .bow to aleel' ,Siomc- lat the :h-~ _-~, __ '~

-, .. 'Ii'III.~€'".~[-' An), '-'-Y"'S'A,I rn,' ,.,.:Id~- "'~",' .... :111.. ,- ~,-;-'n-,~ ... 'I,~,ry_"! 'b'-,-',I1'"- ",'m-,-

~'W~!JI lUI IWL_~~J'·, iU I~U~..:_ -I W}~I ~Jlj___ ~_ ~ iUl_," .'.!~~W~_ ,.1

L' u

aDelloirod as I, fiHed, c'h:araaer efthe ,f,ICC"

Gmes retain 'mei!' CC,nslfmt ,erer fbI' many le!nell-

dens ,of th,e animal cells, 'ba,t: they ,do, ,occasionally cballge:1 mdit ls by the: cumulad~Ofi ,of,th-se c'hlo,ee flUtt'atj,Qrru mat' :1 :new' :s,pe1cica .may .1l".isel,R.;ecendy i,t :hIS, been, found ,P . - ~ 'mo -:mcricuc viery :mu1cb, 'rh-_ :&_:_-lCJu!mcy Mm whiCh mU:[D,'rilons, occur~, so dl8'e one ,mi,lbrr upiJ,re to ,make mUlCh more rapid, ciutnge'sin,mc' ChiraC1eris,b"cs! of aft. ,mimal species! than 'thlose which occur in narure, T:he method 'fa to expose me'i,e,r.m cells co X-rays. or tc ,eerta\ln chemicals. \V,ruch disturb ,the precess of cell,cUviliorDI so !Cha.t 'me: :new cells ,may po"s:sess- ,001; or more ,chlft,gcd genes: .. The p!f,o,ce.ss is! ,m DO 'way ,con:~oUed,biydl,e eJeperim,m:rer; the: X-4;I,YS: sim:pl~y' sm' things 'Up" ,SiD 'rh81~ 1111 arb,i'tt'ary cbmge' reswfSJ, which he can dl:en ,slrndy and CxpIO,i't., Q.ui'tf~ a number ,of' ,mu,'rlricDs na,ve' been prcd.uce1d in ins/lets 'by ehese mesas, bur, m.os!t' of them, h,QVI been lieler,erious. Tlris is .nOIIl: :s'urp:rism,g' because an :mimal is :1 ''1ie[1' dclicltelyb:dmced mechanism, with ia, Ico'nJtbua.o.D ,co.ntin:nalJy ,k,pt up to 'the OW"'k br 'rbI' :strinl,lTlmr c.onditiom, of life,. and, 3., bE!D',C' cL,,~"',n,',e m,

itJi ~ D LI!4I-'1i1

any part of ,its, saucrtU'e' is; fill' ,mo,re ]jJ~el,y' 'to DpIIIC1: rh,e'

82

THI szacras R'OI,Jf'IO SA.'I'SNS

b;alm~! 'mID tOI i~pr'D¥e :it., Slimau ,ch;mg!GS ,co'uld, D,D d!Du:br 'be: mld'llced 'biy ,X~nj"rs .m ,th_ human genies"~ bee tbere ~OID i'r is, :Car more like:ly 'dUJiE' the: com' -:q:uencs 'w,ould be ddeteric,us ,thm bmeficial~! because oftbe 'Upset of'balance ,ofh'UmaD,q umlities" 'rOI make my larg'e beneficial Changl' in one sitep~ it would be necessary to make fiv,'ourable Icnm,ges sim.witmeously' in several -~~Ies~ ,md,

rherc is pr,iu:dc,llly' DOl Chance' 't:ba:t any X-:ra:y IIC: '[c:Quld

d - 'em' '. - - -~'d' _ _'- th' - .• ' d"- f'" me

O I' . If! W' .iI, ,. -]O'U1.' L~[P' r -. !E!'~im-.I 1.:!ilI~I __ I·· ~1·""'a--D'~nIDI CJ;n;lm· ... AI, l~ .-

,'I ., ,iilillil: ,&1-=_ ,,' ._'- ,a.~!i.' ''100 iiI!g '."",, ~",JII:~ ,·a.&,JIUIi. t:li'--z, i:JiY!, i\Ojii 'u ,- j~

e"mer' genes ill, me h,uman germ, celt, :B,ven If we: knew' what' we wm:~!d.,dle P'l"osp'ects of im,pl[oving human nature in a ,sm,gIe stepp Of' even in severaJ :sr~eps~ by' artificial :mem!,. arc SOl small that they em. 'be: left righ,! out, of a.GOODDe" The lonly ,pro:spect 'of improv,emenr mt'lS£ be' b'y 'mk:iD,S' ,advIDtl,ge ofthe rue 'o,CCi1i,oJU! when ,_, smdll b,ene6ci,al mO'f,lt1;OD, har -em eo ,arise' ..

,E,VCD Viimc:Ul:, mntation there' is 3, tendency' for' animaJa rei degm~'lre~ aDd ,this, :in ,s,Pli'tc' af the CODI'tmcy' of theinfluI'Dce 'w:hich each ge'ne exer'ts in, the fornlttio·n

,of the animal; s b,od:y OJ •.• rC:ls'on is, thl.t inmmy' cases

5cvieral,g,cncs have to, co...opcrsJte! 'oolgiether ,For cbe ICQ,rreCI CormatioD lofane ,ofi,ts O[gIIDS~ The' elUDe' 'aam,plc:' a; l[he 'e)',e: of"the fnmit-Sy. This 'CI,PS under the: sUnwt-{ ~'ous eentrol 101:( In.any sep:ual'?: ,genes;., m,d in, cO'1'uetj,umcCl' it can e:xhlbi'tl Bre'ae variety 'of d.efec[s"1 ea.cha'ttrlbuta'ble:

COl 'che lack. of one lor' more of'm,em. In the laboratory these d,t:£cCfS em, be preserved and ,studied, bur in 'w,Od li£e nai~ural, selecdon is con:tD1uaU,/, desttolying: rn:hc' ,inseas 'wim, 'b,ad leyesl.i and, thus the I,pecies is 'beiD,! :kepr. 'u.p to the 'mark." This, examplle su;gges,a IPC1adiDon ,Ibour 'the' human eye'!I' tbolugh of course . _it is; aD. entirety ditTelIDt'

83

TH.E N.EXT .MIL-LION YEARS

and much more wonderful ergan than the leye: of any insect .. Man's life depends very 'much on his eyesight, and in the long past anyonewith defective sightwoula. have had a distinctly lowered chance of survival, N~a'tu[-;e must have been continually keeping rhe h uman eyeuF' to the mark in this way,. But fifteen generatio'DJ agm. spectacles. were invented, and at once some: eye defecrl~ such as shortsigh1)edness, ceased to he a serious handicaps There is rhus new no cbeck against shoresightedness, a.n:a it is a fairly safe forecast that in another hundred s.,enerations or two, this defect \ViII he even commoner than it, is now. This speculation illustrates how any hU111m quality may be expected to degenerate, unless it is being, disciplined. all the time by the stringent test 'Of natura] selection,

There is one other principle in tI'le laws of heredity, which calls for special comment here, since, though it is familiar to biologists, 'it is often unrecognized by laymen .. It is known as the principle of the Non. ... irl-1zeritattC<e ~f 4i:'l!llirea Ch~rtlcte.,s~, This sig:lrifies, thar.auy chang;1 acquired by an animal during the course of its life is, never passed on to its ,o'ffiipring; 'the simplest le·xampIe is, li mutilation." but the same rule applies ··to' a ski1I of any kind that the animal learns during the course of its li[.,. The !nibjec,r' has been hotly debated among biolo,gis:t'l during the pa,st seventy yeats, ,and .al1authoritati'¥e opinion is. now' agreed that such effect! are not inherited, However, it is almest impossible: lever [>0 prove a n,e,garive, and at intervals new examples are still cited, w:hicli are claimed as .showing that characters acquired by ali animal during' adult ]ife have been handed on to ehe oft.·

~4

THE SPE,Cl:BS flOMO' SA.,P.lBNS

spring. Most of·me.m do not stand the test of close examination, but even if mere' should be ill. residue of validexamples=and there is no reason '~QI believe dlat [here is-it is safe to say that a phenomenon, so difficult to prove and so rare in its occurrence, cannot ha ve played any important part ill the development of life on earth. The non-inheritance of acquired characters is just what would be expected. fr 'In the Mendelian theory .. The new generation derives its gel1cs from those' of its parents, and these parental genes, were laid down beforethe parents were born; and they will not III any w,ay have been affected by his, and her later experiences, including those experietlces which occurred before the pro1creation I of the o:ffspring"

It .may appear .s_urprisil1g that. it took soc long to establish definitely such ,a, simple principle as chis of the noninheritance of acquired characters, but closer consideration shows that ·the matter is rather more subtle than might appearat fir:st sight. Many gene-s, govern quite strai:ghtfol'1.Vard q ualities, such as the' colour of a man ~.s eyes; or the fact that after twenty years he is 'to 'Start growing a red beard, bu,t there are others which UiC by no means so ObV10US,~ such as those that determine tendencies ofeharacter; 'du~-se' tendencies may never exhibit their effects at all, unless an appropriate external situation should arise to evoke ·them ..

This, ,may be illustrated by an example. Dogs v:ary very much in the ease with which '['hey learn tricks, but-the. dog with thisgifr will never show it unless he is taught the tricks~The tricks themselves are obviously acquired characters, 'but the ease ofleamingthero ma.y

8s

'T,HE NBX'T' ,MI,L:LIO,N YI,All:S,

'b., in'nllte~ ,A, :oalVie o'bJ~er :mig'b:tt:hink that 'the pappy ,Icanu: 'the ui.ck.s ,ea:sn.y:~, 'because i,ts p'ar1cut had been ,tau,gbc' many 'uica, 'wher,w: Ic:mall!:y' all tha,'t has :ba'·r-= pened is iliarc:the 'paIeD~ didthe ,tddUi because it 'bad mnate . cap':!ciry fOil learnm,B'mem leaJ~nY" md it bas

. banded, onthis innate ea,pacityEo ,i:cs, offiprin,g~ ,N'ode. the contrast in me action oftbe do,g'~s trainer accordq 'ro w'he't:her acquired cbar',lcccr,s, ate inher'itedoL" not, Su,pposemlt ther,eare: rwo pup,pies of 'the SaJDJe Utter;., ,md, Cha,t one ,of:rllJem learns, fr,iclk.smuch mO]jceasily chID ,the: erber"i The SICCO_Dd, w,otdd, D~ed, far'mol'e 'tr~g man, the 6rS,lf and if t1ueuaiDer [le·alIy 'beli ~vled, ' ,ao. Iqj;1.1U!ed, Icb]:uac~er5, wlcre ," - ,erired, he 'wo'wd eqect· 'that 'the deacendall'tI. of 'this second, dCIB'wIDUld, ,[lefij,c;lct ,th~ Icolmequen,ce ,ofrhh: p'le! 'rrainilog' by 'memsel-vle!, 'hem, . elliCE' to 'tram;, actuaUy ofc'our5e~ me ,exact Olp:polJlre -;." be t-rue., since the descendants ,of me d,OI which needed litt[,e '~aining will learn the: triCks more easJly~ Tws ~xam.ple Ulustr'I:'ces. 2, ,p(.lin~r' of immense im,pottU'lCC' to hwu.ani.ty'm.m.t is all too often ov'ef'Jo,okect I-shall. ,rettml

to it in thCDext Ch~pter"

_ The: Mendelian, la:ws ue :PICCfeiCtly preeise, mel :1 :h1911' b09l. deJCli,~ing du~:m :aimo,s,r :IS ,though, 'chley :ba,d 'the' If me sert af,c,m:taianr - sdle 'ft1'nIJ,~ 'Fn.n,~-"II I..,. 'I'tIIi.:! o·-:f' p-,~ I.vdPll!

___ . _ _ ,_, .. e=e=.. - ~ 1 _ . .I __ ... . ,_.W!OUiu.Q.u~I.~ ,fa Y'II' 0) _ .. _: ,0 J ..... ~11

and I have DO't ycttakm Dl'ucb ,Do,tice' at 'the' dc~eJ1't OlE chance '(hI· ente'rs: mICa _ m. m '",Cry ill'tima:tellY'~ This el~, men:I' cf CDI1J]_l'SC arises Er,om me way in '.,' the 01£'

:I'Pl'inJI' _ r= balf'lEs genfJS,llE f,mdolm, _from one parell,'

.... "',d·1 h '711l"'('..,nm······ "h-,III! ~..-_ ·T·n . -('j.M R·~b-,n o"Ii·F'~''li'ilio··'" '·ViAnI' AiI"'_ UI ,11' v· _"."" V I· .• ""'" - ot'!!ii!" 'Y!'~~, ,u,'," _ """"':,

fa.m;Uar with 'me princ~ples of probibUi'ty it: may appear 8,dl

T:HE :SPEClB:S ,H"O'MIO ,S,A,P'I',BN,S'

'dllt rh~'s&ct ,wiD s,pan the: £'or·cc' of me who'le :argwnmt"

,. h .' d· 1L C -

unce IC_' ance means uncerramf:y~ an· ; therefore i.tmigb't

:p',pear 'f:O destroy thevilidity of my :Iaw., Furdu~:rmorc: the' matter goes: very mucll deeper, fOI' pure chance I _,I,aysl gr,e~J!'~' . plan in all rhe subsequent .life of every' anUnal"lS wen as in its preerearion, so it ml,ghr well be Dsked what is the use of being so defulite about the laws Dfhet'cdit'Y when they are alwa.ys going [;0 be dominated 'by the fCu."u.littlllS circumstances of the animal's life. Such reas,oniog ~overlooks- the influence of larg1e numbers, whidl Willl'i~ducle the most wildly vari1o,us indhri,dud

xperi~'oes to 11, nearly s~e'~,ldy' :3.verage., .SiDiDethen: m:aiy be readers 'who are .DO'C' f~uniliar 'wim ,the extta,olr,dinary [,ogency 0:£ ,Mgn.menrs: based ,on probabiJlry, I sh,all devote a UW'f: s:paCif: re the s'Dbject:~, ~d ill 'm.e course: of it 31 ,n u'mb'er' ,of DI'ilierpoitl'£:S o( m!'~ere5,lr will emerge,

The fOll'nrltous: occurrences .m theevents of life are, what fllostly attra.ct our attentio'o; 'but in the long roo it is, d~u! la;wof large n:umbers, that ccunts, 'che law thac me result of a. lar,Re number of c'hat:u:'le events tends to ap'~roatch towardsan av;erage., for example, the" pla;y,cr . ,at _'the roulette 'CI.bme· remembers cluJe,8.y tile' ,OCtUiO,HS: on ~ihich heeeade large'gains 'or losses, and he is :;l:pt 'to rorJ~ rha:t, in a life'rime ,of :g;a'oibllilg dl:e ,actual result will almost It:e'r:tain]y 'be ·tha,1 he has lost 3. s,maU, percenta,ge,ofhisror,aJ. stakes, dl.le pe'f'cCDtllg)e ievied because rhe ror ,e bOIUd, has: a. u,zero':I'n'Wl1,ber. which biases ir

sHgbdy iJ:l favour _ of me' casino ;maDJlg'cr .In the' l(»D,1 run lit is this bias that CO[UltS:, ,and the: life' ofthe humm race on earth is certainly to be COWl 'ted, ~s' a very' long rWl,liSO> 'that the 'bias is, to be reckoned as the reallyim-

87

T'HE---; N-"'-E-'X~'7"T" M-,-)-L- L- 1fO:-;"N'- -Y,,-C]B--'AR,- 5'

I • _I • _ I, .:.. .. 1- _ .:.._ .11,_,_" I .. 1""" ,- _ ~I~~ ':".:

,- ortanr ,th~g in ir and DO't the chance ,go,ad or ill fortunes of individuah~ or even of nations and races,

At tb,edsk of over-elaboraring ,tb 'matter~., I will take another exam pie (['om ,g,3Jl11e,s ofehanc w]u,ch brings ocr some' interesting points. Five men sit down [0 a game 'of pu'r -, chance, each contributing the same capital sum, and they play according 't [he rule th it anyone retires when he has, lost all his, capital. It is eh· 11 a certainty 'that intheend one of tbe n've will win the ,capical ,of ' all the others: it IS, of course pure chance which of them it,will be. If the stakes, allo ved OlD each hand are a, large fr,action

f ~1L - ,-' .. ~ll rh ' , ill' 'I b' L, "hil' Of ~L

I tn ,capl~_;C game w ' -' e snom wni e F mey ,ali

re tria d to! being SID' D, 'the ,game may take a long rime, 'bUlt rh_ :Sual result will be the same, Now snppo,se thar th lca,pit,al of theplayers is no longer required to 'be

q u I·,a,r once there is '~ bias in fl'v ur of the richman, In th course of thegame I a:ch playlclr has ups and downs, bur the rich mall may sometim recover ttom ,:1 Joss tha,[ would have bankrupted the poor man, 50 rhat he is dclini'cely more likely to he (he winner, The moral Q'~' this is that, if thereare two nations in w:b i.ch the indivi .... , dual of both have equal meri s, itt rh struggle' for li£ , thenwith the larger po~puJlarion -ill tend to have: 'the

d' h'l th T -- ~'L '. [ ~d- ,.

- ,anta,g over t e mer, in tm . _m not consm _'rUl

,the :fa,C( ebaJt the larger nation Iwo-h'r enlist more batta-

I· ,b

lions so 3S to con1q,uer rhe other; it is] US'[ that through its

'_ re ,t I population ir can stand great misfortunes and stillcome back &0111 rhein to prosperity, wher,eas chose, misfortunes would have totally de troyed the smaller n tion ..

Returning to tI1C: ga:me of the' five players, suppose 8,8,

THE SPE,C:mE, s H'O'MO SAPIEN,S

nee again that they have' 'equal e pita! hut mat~ though I'f is I,till mainly ,il ga me lo,f chance, there is a s:maU

I '. asure of skill, in it. If now becomes likely, 'f.h.ough not

., rtain.fhar it will 'be the Dl0SI[ skilfu') player among the

l'V who will win. The skill may he of any kind; it may , rhar, through greater inrelligenc , he lean better estimare the chances so as appropriately 'to vary his stake at any stage of the game" or it [nay 'be that he possesses fUl,gers 'which make undetected cheating possible=I am

onsidering simply who will win rhe ga~rne, not [he - 11 stion of the winner S moral chara t ,'r'~ If the stakes, are high, so mat the' gamic is likel 1[0 be shorr, mere may not be' enough time 61 his skill '[ I tell, :nd then he wjD havle lirrle advantage ag,ainst ['11 - Ollie arions of pure'

hance, butifdle gamle rakes a, '~ong time it becomes, exceedingly probable fha ir will be th skilful player who will win, The 1110r:al of thi i that natural advan[ages in the struggle for life will r 11 in the l_ng run, Poc the individual animal or man the stakes are often 'too hj,gh, S,O 'th~l,t he may be killed before' hismerit can .show iucl£ bmthe history of rhe world is, a long rhing, and it is, ICO:lC, med not with individuals bur with large num-b [5, ()if indi.viduals" Beta ise of it immense scale-the

arne - f life is to be regarded at - a. am ot . small stakes, SQ' 'thaI it becomes very nearly a c,er'raiuty that the in .... herent qualities, of tlte race' will be wbar 'OOUDrs,~ and DOt rh accidents to which individuals or ev n nations are exposed

B fore pas'sin;g on there is on ~ Furth r point '~O be made. I have explained, how tlie operation ,of chance becomes compararivel y nnimportane fo.,[ ]a,rg'e numbers, ,89

'Till NIK'T MILLI'ON YI,AIlS and, it 1.1 v£ry pertinent tOI ,uk ho'w ]. rge me numb,r.must be, If~ fOf' ulstance, it was only 'true for ,m1llio,ns, 0 mi]]i.o,nEl~ it might 'be felt il1a'cin, any reaso'113,bl ' span IQ time chance would still 'be dOlminant. Such a '¥Iety ,gueral_ na,aon can col'y be ,g,i'vc _, ,ague answer, biD 'the' answer it " 'ma:t 'the number 'UJluaUy D d not be ,=-t, . I 1·" ge :fol,r the chancesto aV'"::8 ~ lout. With the typ:i.c ' ,cxam"pie ,D( spilmlD;g a. ,co:in:II even I, qmi,t,!: smaJI numb'~r l&etcn willllm'D,lt COWl! as a lsrge number in 'I:he'lense that, jf the coin is ,spun ten rHn=-s., th._ number ofhel,da ·will ,r,al'1~ly be more than two =-way fro,m five. 'which i= the verage number' 0'£ he: ds, In most matters c,on ' cemed, with prcib,a:bllitytbr _ or four count as s :",.-'_

,- '-. -- b"'r" r- _T"I, .,,~' a ~- ';'':Iy ]."tj!!'Diiil!il DU'- - b'- -[' and 00II, h-L_,UD':- 'd'-'II"'e'd'-1 -.

num _I~ -"-~, I~ .iP!ii!Il . 13 ..... ,,-,., ·a.iI.'b~ _._ -=-,'!ii>_:, 11I<U'_, ,~, __ - ,.:_ ~~" 1

'Ve'ry I· '~B-' Dumb - r, There af1 10:£ COUll_- leXlCe:pdloJUi '£-0 ,~,' t,I,O -ment---lls, for lexam,ple, 'wbm 'the ,dune,_' ,~~ fav,aUl of some 'VICry rare oeeurr ~nce' is bein;g ,coD5'idered ~b'U't it will do in ,giving ,I, general ,piicmf,e ofthe subj eee,

In, ,the, light of all these consfder tio,ns; hDw' does me, ,slrand in the animal king:d,om in, regard 'tel 'the b.erbable qu: liries which are to, help him to lurvivc"~ P'bys,icaDy he is ' pOl" thin:B' .n.=:irher so, Slrlan, '.~ :n,O.r so swii" nor 0 eou " h _=, -, tf ',.:..:_- ,·"mah" nor 'Widt I~ffecrlv~ mear . 10£

defmoe., On the p:bysical sid,e t Ie omy Iclaims be' em

'I - ,i i ....1.. ,. al k-' d- 'I ;;

D12u:,e eo ;U1y :Sl)',PCflO'I'U!Y III 'UDJC i&nl11'l'_ . c mg "10m are' 111

C-y~B 'which .ha,ve.a ,re6nemernt of plerc1ep'tion above that 'of all mammals and proha.bly of 'most bir,dl, his hands' which are on of th m05,t versatileand delicate tools in, nature" and th·~ ,gift ,of speech, which haL' 5u,cb tremend(na, social imp,orWlce., Bur th -~,-- ,tbi'D,-,S, ,1I,e relatively

•

90

'TH,. S,'BC,[IS, H'O',MIO SAP',IB'N,S

I vial., since the es· .entiat pomt of' maD~ me Dew phmoenon in nature', b his intellect, associated with his ener-

I l:teusly exag'ge',[',ated,brain~ It iI, merc:£o,[,C In ,rJatio,n to lUs ~ tellcct tha.;[' all man'sother qualities, must be ,conlid,ered .. In rh· .. essential :m··· ,rr,_-r of survival 'th,cr-e are 't\YID dring, eeded, ,tbe ,sl1IVivai of the individual and. 'the surviv,"-'

I' the [2C-e; .. W,e are all v'ery w,eU endowed with. deep - _'tinlets forb'om~ and ,cu.r,ioull,y· enough w'e' are "'shamed, f both 'th~5e instinCfS" AI Ito 'the ~runi,v,ll of d1e~ indiYi-,

, ual we have ,I very strong~ intima'tend deep feal' of de th, evoked by ,any form of dan,ger; ,b: is not ,i thinS' -e boast about, but i.t· is c-enainly a very ~sscndal q,uJity

I ',or Survl.,yaJ.'1 and as ~n.cb, it' is to be reg:a.rded,1 important' d valuable, ,Fe"r the :r-.prad:ocd,QD of'the [,ace:.,lber,e~ are

I '.' 01 im,DnCrI, needed, 'th.c-' Ilexual"aD!d the P31'C11tai" md tbe

__ :y thesl~"'rle IQ,l"ga:nlzed i:. '~O :81Y itbl~ I,e'st ,curio'us. The _emu ,insdnct~ ,though mueh ,co,mpHr;a~ed 'by al110r_~, of

- b 0.- .. 10'- S. ;,~ ~o. 'f'- most o,£.IC m ankind near lv D' [0 .• v~.~l~,o···lftft"-;-,s ..... -t.~.

. I _' '_ ... , ~ "'." I' - _- I~_ - ':: ··~·~iLllAU.L'=-· .I_~ - 1'1' I ,iIJ ", -', wc&'~ _ I w ..

: ear of d,eatb~, 'chcugb i:r has the advan't'al,ge of b~~B' p,teasaD,t' instead 0:£ UDp,leasant~ ,Among ;anlmals it, brings - bC1u;t the' inevitable: clons:cquence of reproduction. and IllD,dJ! very ,reccndy m_-: s'~ WaI, true rOil InUl, so tb~_'c the' MaltlU15ian ina- ~ of POlpuiatia,n was, ,1SS'UI'cd., This

,. s· true for a large proportion ofrhe human, race, but, Idle exiseenee of birth-ccntrol has ,cotir,ely altered the :' ituation amoD;B the mere highly Idevelop'ed PCCpiICS,,, Th COD&cqgenc hi,S 'been 'to make repredueeien depend 10f them not on an lnrense instinctive imp'_:.1lsic, 'bur rarher en intellectual I' asoning, and 'this, for very m,my p_·o,plic· is an exeeedin g:]yI epid modve .. ,

The p',aren:mI imdDC[ ,is, also som c:-wh t ioe'ffeca,ye'~, be~gl,l:

0;

TH·- E·· .'. N-···· E~ X--c'T .fi.Jj~L-. L' I.ON YEARS.

_ _." ~_ " _'. , " 1Vl,1. l •

cause lor 'uu!majority it is only strongly stimulated by the pn~sence' of the children; that is to say. it is ve.ry imp10rtallt in preserving them, but it dD'CS not .. make :my such clamant call on the emorions to beget them, It ha nor the same intensive compulsion as the sexual iustin<i. and this is not very surprising because of its veFY different function .. No one can feel any very inttl!HS emotion conrinuousl y for more than a short dg1 e: whether it- is pleasure or pain, atlger' or. grief 01:' fearj, ·th sharp edge of it fades in a few days, whereas, the paIcn:.tal instinct has, got to work ,ef£ecti vely for fifteen or r~,ell:ry years, ifit i's to serve the survival of the race, It is met_&.1 fore hardly surprising thar it should 'be steady and eea-

- . .. th 1 .

tinuous, but not so mrense an instmct as tne sexuai :10-

stinct or as the fear of death.

It is a matter of great importance 'char the' proctea- rive instincts are atp:re~ent ineffective in maintaining om population), but I shan defer considering this till alter chapter after some of the other attributes of huul,atuty have been discussed, Besides the' instincts that I ~v

. ~ _.. f

dealt with, there ar of course many other qUalidt

some of them not so instinctive" which are importan for survival. One may be-selected as pre--en1.il1rell[:~ Man. is superior to alI other- animals in his read~ess to' ,t

experiments M· ny.~' of rh "" higher animals, like him, tli

!i.,._ 'i",i. ;,1;,.,. . "oJ". " ~.--, '..... . .... _ .. -- -J - -"

learn by experience, but if they are _placed in an. £amilia:r situation they ate lost whereas a man will· ways, try-to think it out and will'oft,en find a solution

his, diffi(;ulries~ This Bexibility ofnrind and the ".: f' .....

ability to unforeseen conditioas 'aye the main .",,~'u:a .... why he has succeeded in dominating the world.~

92

THE.' SPBCIES ll'-OM'O SAPJENS

- possessed to very varying degrees by different" individuals, but they are clearly of sapremic importance ~111 the struggle for life in an ever-changingworld,

There are man y other qualities, which hd p survival. nd I s1J.ali he content to mention only a few of them, ~ orne estimable and SOUlC 'the reverse, We value intelligence, honesty" capacity for leadership; and other " imilar qualities; and we mark our approval by selecting (heir posses·sors for prometion, A man IS promoted on

count of his individual merits, without any thought nbour the consequellces. for the distant future. In a l~s,

bnormal world than the present, his increased pros!""", perity should lead to the' man's. having a larger 'family than those of the less. p:rosperOlllS~, so that the good qu.aH ... · ties inherited from him should gradually 'become dif~ " used throughout the population in. later generations. At the pres,e11t timethe exact opposite happens all too o~&en, in "that he is .likely to have a smaller fam:ily than "he' average:, in fact success in life is, at present antagonistic ItO. success 11:1, survival.I shall nQt consider this. filtth,er D.OW~ since it is 'co be" dis:cussed lat-er ..

It is always nece'ssary tOI remember mat 1131ttU"e itself is Iq uirenon .... moral, andt'luu: there are .man.y qualities which we by 110 means admire, which nevertheless are ,otten regrettably effective ]11 the struggle for life. All through the animal kingdom cne ,of'mle- mosrsuccessfiil roles is, that of n the parasite, and 'there' are states of human 'oaety where such. a p.ar'alsite asthe pr-ofessionaI beggar is

..' successfiil as atlyoue else, Something of the .kind is UD:~ fornma·tely true in Britain Just now, The people weare really lenconragin,_g are not those tharwe think we are,

'9~

TH,E, NEXT MIL,LION 'YEARS for a great many of the: people who gee good ',,', are contributing less than their share to 'the next a.:ClterilL-'i non. At presentthe most efficient way f01"' a man to Itl;5' 'vive: in Britain is 'to be almost half~w.i['ted,t completely irresponsible and spending a lot of time _in prison, whet his, health is fu' 'better looked. after than outside; 0 coming OUI: 'with restored, health he is rcady to bC'Ber many fUrther chUdren, quit-e promiscuoualy, and theJ' "problem chil,df'el1,u are then be,nudfuUy Ca.IC~ for ,bY'_'~he various charitable societies and agencies, until such rime as the:y have grown old 'enough, to carry on the geed work fOI themselves. It is this parasitic tyPiC that' is 'at present most favoured in our ,country; if nothing i done, a pc,int' will com~ where the parasite will kill it host by exha,wtio,n and then of course: itselfperishmisarably and c,orrte~p,tibly through having no one 1:01 s,upp,ort lt, Now though there _ may be occasions in human history when something ,of this' kind can happen, th~r,e is no fe'a!" that it shcJ'1Jld, hap,p,en, to marlkind as a, whole:; ,£-o,r a. p~ar,asite is. essentia,nysubordina:ce, to some host,,_,an,d man claim's, and claims reasonably, to be' master of ch,c world. sa that there' is nothing £or him 'tOI be subo,r,di .. nate to, In the' long run there is n:o dmger of ma.nkiftd

adopting the role of t~e: parasite, _

There is, another role, which is n,ct by any means wboll.y 3,dmif,able. that mayweU be' rspecially S'1Jc'ceslfu1 in the II'ttugg1.e for Hfe,. This is the role of the hero, us.in,B the t,crm not in the medem sense of' a man ,embodying all the virtues, but in the original sense: used,by Homer,~ The Homeric hero" who has bis eo:un,terputs, in nlJllY other serni-bar'bmric cORdi'tions ofUfe~ is; Dr.Vle' and td

94

THE SPECIES BO,MO SAPIB.NS

1-. '_, hut selfish. undisciplined and something of'a bully i lIe is by taste a leader, but his leadership' is often marred 11'1 impatienceand lack, ofpersiseence, so 'that: he :f~ils tiO --cry through to the end. ,any projects which would take O!! long time. He cares little fo,r the sufferings of others, I less they are his henchmen; whom he looks after oat f self ... interest, Prom the present point of view one of 11 ~ 5 most important characreristics is 'that he is usually by I'D means monogamous, 'but very much the reverse, S,O 'h,:lIlt his qualities .are likely to' be reproduced and multilied. many times in the next generation .. Is it possible thatin the long run the earth should be wholly peopled , '''/' heroes! It is irrelevant mat it would be an extra .... (rdinarily disagreeable' world to live In, fo.[ there is nOlthing' in nature to dictate' chat the world has, got to be greeable, It does, however, seem unlikely -that the heroic type can ever' become a large fraction of m'e

I. anh's population", because their qualities do DOlt fir into . society of dense populadon ......... ra:the;[' they prevent its

· h' h d -, ~;1 d - - . ·'ll'

xJ$tmce----w, - ereal t .'. 'e' - 'ensQ l' po,p:wa,t'fL~_cOtmtrles WI· .

domi"nate rhe earth by sheer force' ofnnrnbers, Still mere 1'1 c,ertainly ,I place in the' wo,tld rot the heroic type, in .articular for their capacity fOlt le-adershipt and if this . ',wJity could be dissociated {r,om some of the' other less ,desirable characteristics of the: her:o.~tberew:ou1d be a

I. rear place forhimt in society. It is not impossible ,tbac uch a separation of 'qualities may come about autoMatically, 'because 'me' hero who can adapt himself to rbe .ivilized, life of dense' populations' will have a better

f- .~, ... 'L tho - h- nl Ii" .,

-respect' 0 survrvai enan tne one who cano .uy ve m a

, tate of semi-barbarism,

TH . .E NEXT MILLION YEARS

This chapter has been mainly devoted to considedn me qualities of homo sapiens regarded as a species mim;Ll" and species of animals, stay roughly fixed in t')"p for something like a million years, fu f~l'C~ of 'CDul~~. they are slighdy changing all the time, but it' takes this period heftme they are different enougJl to be given . new specific na~e. It is fitting to end the chapter b~

1 .' h ,. L,_,,_ •• illl b L

s:pecu ,atlilg on wnat man's, cnaractensncs W~c.,·~IC' Willen,

at' the end ofthat period, he is' sufliciently altered to be regarded as a new species, Will be have become homo sapielnti'or or wh,att'

The development of animal species has been studi!md by means 'of the fossils 0'£ past geological ages~ which 'us,uallyshow changes in the animal's form progrles~iu,g rather stea .. dily through the a;ges; 'though the record is oft.en complicated by- side branches.which split off hltD new species or else flourish for a time and then cometc nothing. Of'course these :a1?pare~lt steady r:at~s ~f chatll50 have not really affected all. the members of the 'species simultaneously. What has happened is, Chat a few of the animals have chanced co develop a small supericriry in some way, say all extra, turn of speed, and through dli. advantage they have left more offirpring th,~'U'l have die slower animals. The q'ualitilt;s ,of the members, ofa species are always, JpI;t,ad over a, certain lang,e!! and. the av,e:r~g;e ofdte' species is being continually dr-aggecl. up,wards,; ltlJ through an equal change ill an the members, but through unequal reproductivity at the: two ends, of the range .. When homo sapi,e,ffJs is ,~ha11ging, it will net be' bf the whole race ,gaining simultaneously whatever qua]i;., ties better fic it fo[ survival, but rather by certain, types

96

TH,}: SPBCIES HOMO SA.PIENS

. mankind proving superior to the rest in survival value,

I that they' contribute a larger proporrioll to the later cnerations, and in so doing drag the average qualities, of

hlltnani'ty in the' s,a.me direction. .

The first question to consider is whether the varieties I. , mankind, the' white' yellow, brown and black races; ulay not branch off into different species, In the animal kingdom such b~anching has sometimes arisen through I ,ng periods of geographical isolation, and another waY' has been through the development of infertility in the , exual unions between the most unlike' members of the

, : ecies, Neither of these causes will operate in the case Jf man, since the whole earth is his habitat, and all cile aces ofmankind are fully fertile 'together. Climate has

been another frttitfrd. cause of the splitting of a species uto two, Undoubtedly some cfmankind tolerate better i, cold climate, and some a hot. Will there then ulri- 1111.l't,ely be: a flo,m.o ar,.ti",ts· and ; tUJmo ,e,q.Iltl'tori4iis? It is 011 rhe whole unlikely" beoause man has learnt so well to carrel his ownclimates, Even -n0W arctic man can live'

. omfQrC~LbJy in the' t[OP~CS by cooling his dwellings with he help of physical science.and by resisting the tropical diseas,es with the help of , medical science, and the ,COl1- verse is equally true of equarorial man in the cold regions, It seems likrely then that man will not diverge ([10m, onespecies Ineo 'two on accoun t of climate; indeed ! : conve'rgence is: more probable, Thus although the fa.ir-

L=_. __ . d -- . - -. ak fli" th .

~lOWle, man can m· ... e 3, success 0 - . ,:Vlng' m _~ ie trOpICS

y taking die trouble: to control his climate, his fau' skin

s, still some handicap to. him, since it cannot 'so easily p,[otect him ,a,gains'[ the direct rays of the sun as, would a

G 97

TH,! NB:XT MILL,ION YElARS auk "skin. O,n the olther handl there is not mueh ~dln th:a:t 9, dark skin is a handicap in cold dimat~s. If this . .. " 'trast of e,ifects is correct. it, s'Ugs,est5tha't In the elld_lllm', complexion will be rather dark all over the wodd: . ..

The physi,c,al characterisncs of ma~ ,ml'Y'_ ~fc~~rs chang1e wi,~, the Ia,ps,e a,f dme~1 but it 1$ ~O'~' b~elr t~1 they should do 50 ..• t~ a. great extent, smce .1~. ~I ~Q p,rimarily these 'CjUallt1BS that. preserve hW~~J~_ In .. ~ luu,ggle, fo,,[ life;, even, Icongenl't~l geed health and re~~st

~nc~ to disease have been largely discounted by meche science .• It is ,th,e inleUectual qualides of man tha~t :really matter,. and 80 it will. be these that ~c: the' most liable to

change. In all such qualities mer ~ ~~.dou~tbe avtr}' wide raug·e of variation, b,etw~~11 ,lndivldu~ JUs~~ t1~,c:'. is now. some being clever and so~e s,tupld,.some g'Q~d and some bad, and the cllan;ges wi~ C~tne abID'u,t by 't',_ ~~ase of the numbers at one end of the _range at ~. ,expense~ o£those at the other, It is 'v'ety' much .~~~t~~ . ' cOJllj cctul'e what rhos changes will ~e ~d I will only mention a few possibillties,_ General mte~~e s~Duld always be of value, partirolarly ~e ~P,ecla.hze~~lIlta .. ligenee that is adaptable to many varle~lf!~ ofpur~~,se SiOwioth, some confidence :it may be ie;xpec~ed that ',ma11 will become cleverer rhan, be 'is, now .. It is by no m,~ms ~-~-~l;a-r that he will become morally berter as well, since

in it .hi,ghly co'mpctiti~~ 'wo:dd,., tb~ sinn7f' __ .hasm81.1 advantages over the saint. 'That 15· d15appomt~. ~ut.J must be remembered 'that' moral codes have dllferc~ , good deal at different periods of history. and it is to b

~pected. that fUture gener~~~ns will. succeed in . eons:tructing :1 moral code:,ss,'tDf)rins to the good man .

,~ p8

'THJ3, SPECIE-SHOMO SAP'IB.NS'

ose days and reasonably close to being within attainI ent by all, howevermuch it may disagree with our 'WD standards.

Another more specialized chang,e may be suggested probable. Civilization has taught man how 'to live in dense crowds, and by that very fact those crowds, are · ely ultimately to constitute a majority of the world:s epularion, AIr-cady there are man:y who prefer this

· owded life, bur there are others who do not, and these . ill he gradually eliminated. Life ill the crowded condi[ion of cities has many unattractive fe-a'turcs" but in 'the:

I, ng run these may -he over~ome.,no~ so much by ltering rh em " but simply by ,changing tbe human race

nto Iilcing them, _ ..

Finally I will refer to' another quality, which ~ shall discuss more fUlly in ,S, later' chapter; As has, been aIrleady pointed out, man's present procreative instincts are fail~ i Ig to, reproduce the species in ,sufficient n1?mhers_ in marry of the more c:ivilizednadQns~ Any of mankind tbat overcome: 'tills failing will increase at the expense of

le rest, and there is already a germ for natural selection o work on in the spontaneous 'Wish of some people fot children .. , Whether 'this reinforcement of the procreative Instinct should be dignified by a new specific name I do not kn'OWI) 'bu'[i long befo.r,e the end of a million years, it is almostcertain that hrJ'nJo sap'iens will have Ichanged into ~-,(nno pae,diphilw ..

VI

CREEDS

I N., ... p. hiloSQph. i. cal considerations of.- 'me nature oflifei' : ,question that has been Inuch debared has been f;.

rivalry between "nature and nurture", that is [he 'question whether the inherent qualities of art animal or [he external conditions of irs, IHe are more important to i.t. In fact the argu'menr leads: nowhere; because; ~h0n two thing's are hom ~lb'solutely essential, it :sunply !t',a-a :np meaning to ask which is the DFJ.Of,e importa.~.t~ There.is not even a ,clear-cut separation between them, but ,8 separation can be made, ~ it: is, accepted that it is onlI a rough assignment of emphasis", and not ,at definire s·ph~ ... ring of the subject into rwo, In the previous eha.pre't',th emphasis was on man's nature and it is now _the turn fo his nurture, in particular for the way human history $)' be affected by what a man learns from his fellows.

Man shares with the highe.r animals the capacity fa lea:rl'lin'g,~tl1ough to an immeJ;-lseiy superior degree. Th question .of how animals learn is much si~lpler; it .. ,' been ,objectively studied in 'v'ariou~, ways~, illpartic\U1ar by the met.hod of "conditioned reflexes", 'mat is to ,s:a:y by th'c study of how by ptactice (which. must always b associated with rewards for' success] an animal acquires ski]] in the 'p,e~rfOnl1arlCe of 'tasks which. have been ,s:e,~ to it. In theexperiments the' tasks have often. ~e~n quite 'UD 'like anything that would happen in wild life; but 'itl,

roo

CREEDS

results show the general wayin which an animal does II am skills, and the same proc-esses, applied to the con .... litions of the wild state;,wldoubtedly assis,t the animal

-,0 surv~ve in, the- ,S,tfug.gl,f' for life .. The study of [conditioned reflexes has bro-ught out c'learly the face that I here is a great variability am[o.ng different individual aimals, in ,tha.t SOUle learn skills much more easily than thers .. , This is presumably ,an inherent quality of the individual, but learuing is not ,always a .matter of ac-

qui[~g skil1~ .by individu.al effortll for ir ofren inlpIies definl~e teachmg. This holds particularly in the case lof ~an; bur a~'oug ,m~l~lsaJso teaching pla.ys SODle' part. ~~r lexaulpI;e" dle cal'tching oflnice-is. one of the important tluugs a kItten must learn in order to fie i:r £o:r the

. 'rruggle f'Or .Iife~ aIld a cat teaches her kittens how to' do it Ir malY be that somedmes the whole fu'eure of a litte~' of kittens will be' prC7judi~eddU"o~gh their h.avlug been 'r.aught a bad Ityle' of,catcbing' mice by their mother .. So

I yen a:n1!~ng animals survival may dep'Clld 0'11 having

been 'taught the right doctrines. . .

~11e processesof tea~hiug and learning are obviously f immensely g~ea~er imporrall,c,eco h~manity thant-o

_ny animal, and the first thing to 110[e is that in 'me maner of he~~di~ education 11l11S·t rank as an aC'luir,c.a .ha'racter" so that It does nor come under the M,el1cielian ~_-WS~ There call be no, genes representing wha,r one has been taught. Nev,erthe1ess, as I pointed out in the last . hapter, ,the matter is rather more subtle than tllis bal.d statem_ent.!uight be 'take'J1, ~o iml)ly. To bring rhe poult out, I will take an ,exarnplewhich is deHbera,tcly

exaggerated. -

101

THE N,BXT M.lLLION YEAJ~l!S

Suppose that there is au earnest beUe:v:cr who,~ho1& that acquired characters are always inherited, perfettI, He ought 'to ,expect that the childeen of literate pat'\ell't will be able to read without being taught, orthat the son ofa Latinist will spontaneously know' Latin gram~ mar; in fact he expects neither of these ~gs, but?nly for the reason that every single child that has eve~ been born is, 311 exam plet'o the contrary " Though ,he ha!!ll~D accept this disappointment, he will nevertheless make the best of things hy claiming that th_~ children 0 Iiterate parents usually learn to read _ earlier ,~d I?~IC easily than others do. In this he will orten be qUIte rlg~'t" bUl,t part of the reason i~ only loosely connected WIth heredity. In. p.art the result arises from two very g~ne~aJ characteristics: of mankind" (he tendency of the child 'to imitate what it sees g,oing on round ~t, and the 'tend~~ of p,ltents to wan't to teach their children. I~ is tt.UlC that these are innate characters" so that they will fall under the biological lawsofherediry, but, they are_ t,~o :gerteJ'_ to be invoked for the narrower purpose of the presen' argument. H()wever, therc_ is a more ~p.~cial appIicatiQ of the law of heredity ww,cb can legillmate1y ~e_ DIS,If! It is true 'mat there is no, gene COn£errul,g a knowledge. Larin grammar, but there may well be a g'en~ co~felr~g the type of brain which makes, ehe ~i'rudy of things lik La~ 'grammar congenial, and it is likely that paren.ts who have found Latin to their taste, will posses_s _ . gene:;, sotba't Ithey ~re~ely ~ p,ass it, ~n ,t?ilieir dllld~,~. _ ·

The question of me inhetitanc~ of mtcllect~~ quaU? is matched by the inheritance of moral qualities, .,' -' ... - have to be taught to the growing chad in much '[he 1-3.· .~m~ I03

CREEDS

_ anner, by precept and, example. There' :still 'lingers in any quart,ers the conception of the perfectibility of mankind, and it is well worth considering what the iological theory of heredity has to say about it. In disus-sing the non ... inherieance of acquired characters in the last chapter 1 cited the example of the [raining of , ogs to do tricks" and. I pointed out that the wise trainer w~uld always use the dogs that learnt the tricks easily, and would get rid of those that were slow learners. I

hose this example deliberately as being free from any .L:: ~ 1 • 1 .,. bl • all rmcai questions, sue 1 as must mevita _'Jly enter Into _ ..

natters that concern humanity; but still it is .interesting c see how ie would apply to humanity, when con-

siderations induced from ethics are for the moment for .....

~Qtten. A philanthropic dictator wan:ts to. perfect me i mate moral qualities of [he human race; ho-w should he go about it? Following me example of the dog trainer, he ,\ViII devote all his attention 'to the good

hildren, and he will neglect [he worse ones, doing all he can to see that theY' do not succeed in life,,3Ild above ,ill that they are nor permitted to hand on. 'ch,eir inferior qualities to later generations .. Actually all too often, philanthropic, effort goes in exaetly rhe opposite direetion, into curing the faults of me worst, without recog,nizi.qg that the acquired characters ~o ind.u.ce~ are quite' hnpermanenr. In saying this Lam thinking ofrhe long: ...

ange policy, and. I do not in the least want to belittle' the self-sacrificing work that is done by so many noble workers in impr"l'villg' the' conduct of the 'worse ele- ents of the popularior .. It may be Justified as being _3, ood in its:elf, and moreover the existence of criminals 103

THE :NE.X.T MILLI.O.Ny'EA.RS

perturbs very sericusly the life of the' rest of the com .... muniry, so that everyone benefits, if 'this nuisance is l\i~. moved. Still it' is 'prop,ct:.'to note; that the 'policy of pay"'" .ing most atrention roche infer.ior types isthe most meffic:ieutway poss.ibleof achieving the perfectibility of 'the human race.

Tumitlg now awa'y from thesenarrower questions of 'biological heredity, consider tll:e larger question ofho,v' education, in thewidesr sense, has a:ffectJed and will aiftt£t his·tory,. Every man b,uilds upa world. 'of dlo'Ugb;t ... directing his conduct, whioh is pardy formed £rom ~is

.. b f" '. . j: e: t""

own expenence;~, _ 1lt even mateo,' rtis 3H::qlllIe'Q, nom iUS

1- d" 1 1" 6'" fr' £]. '. d d' ., ,

. ~. _~, __ !~ '_ __-', ',_' _-,-~ ..- ,--',-:-,-.-, " -. ':-,. '",_'.'~'_ I , ;' ",'. _. _- ~",,_-,,:,:-::'-::- -.,-::- .',~ ,-:-- "~'I:

teac aers, ;J;1: ... ill ater ire r ,-.o.m rrien .. S, al1acqualllt1lflC~,

or fronl books, I sha.1l use the w'ordereed to denote a :j:ef

f- , .' d : ... t..~, , ~ 1 ' ,'1 "",1L.

ottenets acquiree In trnszenerar manner, ,., I.nean tIle

." ,- -'~ ICi

word inan entirely colourless sensev with no questi~n arising of whether the' treed is true or untrue, mora] '01'"

. . I' ". '. l~ b d f'-' I' "II '1·'1 tho ln

I ... _,~ , ~, ,',' -~'_' :, "-".- :,., 1,·'- ~"-,I ','", - :---:-,1: _" - ,- '...:':. : -----:",,:( '~"I":': - ,: ", ,_:c-': ',',' - ': 'r ':'_:-' ': _ . - 'I , __ ~- , ,~

lmmo.I a ... It IS merery a oo .y 0 P 110SOP n.ca '... .aug [.

whether if is reasonable or unreasonable philosophywhich is s:tron,gly held and, used' as a. main guide to, CQlld:uct.Tbereaie of COO[S,e creeds held bysillgle indiVi;ooo duals, hut naturallythe important ones are those held b~ IargectntllJ.lunities,., Such Icteeds have p.rod:]~l"ce;dj) m.d wU;L agaiuprwuce', enormous e'f(ects on human bjSfOEY ~ and their inflnerrce must be considered.

The, flI'st 'ching co 11o'ti.ceabotlrt. creeds is that: meyarc inherited, hut: inherited according to CUrlOUS lawsqui~e different frornthe usual biological 'C11,U';-S,. A man~b :l'ath~r likely eo bold the same creedsashisparents ,~dr,el3l~Qmi~ but no more than he' is those of his, teachers and Itt.

104

CR.,li·OS,

friends "whereas he has received his instincts and his inherent qualities from his, ancestors and win share themVIi eh his blood relations; ie w:iD he pure accident if they happen to coincide with those of his friends,~ In this res~;ect a parallel can be: dr:avmbetween. creeds! and languages, for'3tman is likely to speak the language of his' parents, but he is quite as likely 'to speak thatof his, unrelated frieJlds. A Imgttage_ is a. simpler thing to analyse than 3, creed.and so it nlay he: useful to follew the alllaloRY further. Up' to a point the classification of languages resembles rheclassificadon of animals; beth can be divided into varieties, species, genera and so on, Ind 'both gradually change their forms with. the lapse of time, or they nlay bra!lch out into several varieties" or they may become extinct, To this degree they are similar, but the resemblance fails jf it .is tikell filrcller .. , Thus the vocabulary of a Imgua.ge' is' sometimes a" mixmre derived f:rcfnl quite unrelated sources; among. animals this: would he as. though a hybrid could be produced between a mammal and an insect. Again sometimes wh.oUy new words arise, derived from lID, traceable source and presumably originating :ko,m rhe caprice of some in venter; fOI languages the principle om~l1e 'vlVt,&,PJ'~ ex JJiv,tJdQies, nat hold. Much the S:9:1ne would. seem to be '[rue of creeds .. , Like animals, "[hey could be: ,da:ssified into varieties, speciesand so o"n,aild Iikethem they often show' progressive modificaricn, branching and extinction; 'but on the other hand there have of tel; been hy bridizations between quite unconnected creeds, and sometimes wholly new doctrines, have arisen. with. no levi-den tparcntag"c atal]. Infact~a new kind. of

laS

THE NBXT MI.LLI0,NYBARS

bere,dity bas come into existenee, of quite a different type from ,that affecting animals, but of great impofl::ance to mankind, It appea.rs to methat what I may ,~alI the Natural History ofCreeds would he 3. veryexcitiq: study and one meriting ,3 gr,eat deal of attention.

I have mime'! the psychological nor rhebisterical knowledge to study the natural history ,of creeds in de'tail, and I shall therefore be' content with giving a,few examples ofwhat I am trying to express. Lselecr for my starting point an avowedly trivial example, the creeds abolu wha.'t food should beeaten, Why is it that' we eat the flesh of certain animals and .nor of others? If anyone in Burope is o£fere,d a dish of dog's fl,e.Slh he' will refuse it wirh something like horror:"I'atio~iring his refusal perhaps by the explanaricn 'that the dog is ,a' dirty animal, .A Moslem will also refuse iti fo!' him it would be immoral to ear it because. it is prehibited by his scriptures, On the other hand~, ill certain plarts of China, the dog is, lund) prized as an article-of diet. From what 'we know of other Chinese' cooking this showsthat the taste of dog's Hesh must be eX'ceUenr; nevertheless there are very few of us who could be per:snaded totry the dish, Contrast this with th.f!1 reactions €PI the pig. FOI" the Chinese it' is me mo~[ prized meat df all, fOf' the European nearly as mum so; even though 'tnt!! pig is proverbially regarded as me typjc~ll·dirty aIlimal, wher,eas for the' Moslem .it would ,again be: immoral tOI eat it., Creeds, about' food are .pa,ren-rIyttivial" but this example' does show nevertheless whata tremendously' strong influence a creed has on our conduct,

Creeds about more important things narurally have a 106

CREEDS

'very much :gf'ea,tercomptllsion.~ 'Those we hold flImly appear to us to' have the inevitability of the propositions of £ormallogic ... Anyone who does not happen to share OUI creeds is: ar '[he least regarded as anillogical £001, but more frequendy asa perversely wicked person, It is this that has led. to. :01051:. of the terrible series of persecutions rh;\t have blackened ci1.C records of history ..

Creeds ofcena,rous'e the most fmatical devotion. It is euehusiasm for his creed. that has created the martyr, aJ11,d~ ifwe happen, to share his, creed, the martyr is r'egalded.~1S one of the noblest ofhwnal1ity~ But the matter is not IS ~im?le a~ th3,'t~~ f~I' this judgment has usually been P'.r~

J udiced by me fact that we do sympathizewitlrelie nl~:[tyrJscfeed:I' and it is necessary to look at the 5ubJ"ct without this·prejudice,.The 'martyr is driven ro makethe ultimate sacrifice 'by his enthusiasm for his creed, but this. enmtlSiia$ln ~ hasusu,a1Jy been. evoked by the countereIlthwi:a~m ofhis p,er.setutoIs:,the m.ajority in paw'et". who hold an opposite creed with .. equal fervour. fOil" every man who is 'wHI'J11B to cUe Eor his faith there will be cen men who are willing to kill :fo!' their faith., The ten. feci that they arc actuated by 'the same 1.110dve~ the p'Ul"_e hatred. of evil, II tha.t ·of,the martyr, and the main differenc~ is only that fo,r weak human nature the role oftheper's!ectI:tot is, easier than '[be tole of the persecuted, Bur that there is 110 ve:ry gre~u differ.ente between the two is ShO,WIl by many examples in. history, for when the persecuted party hasg,ained the upper hand, it has, usually indulged in counter-persecution on a scale equal to that which. it had itself .suffered .. I have cited the' history of pen~cutiona.s an example showing how in ...

107

-THE. NEX,T MILLION Y' AilS

'['eDS!eiy important creeds are as influe ces on hum conduct, and, jn passing, another characteristic ofthem may be noted, This, is, 'rha[,~ th.ough rhe infide] is h,;d:edil he is, by no means so much hare .,. as is, the heretic", However, though such matters are interesting aspecrs of'ilic atural history f creeds", fOlr Illy pr'e'setl t purpose it would be out of place 'to folluw them fUf'theI'.

It w'ilJ he' noticed rhar I have not said anything at 'aU about what is the fundamentalq uestion ill r,egard 'to aJ1'Y creed.and that" is whether it is true or falsie .. For one wh' 'W3l1Jts to believe in cree . ' irs truth is aU rh at matters hut it is; nO'E t&iSl ch:u matters for m'y purpose'., In the p,~.;r there have been creeds, such, €Olf example, as, the bell·' In ,magjc or di,vll13tJO'D, which have been very wjdel}~ 2ccep'c, d, but we -no'w knOIW rhemto have been quite absurdly false~ Yet '[hey have xerted 'me very greatet influence on human hisrory, The species 110nro has llQt challged,and there aresrill very marry who are only 'tGO c:'ag,er to believe i11 such "thin,gS-llOt by ally means all of'rhenl ,[:,olt£med to ·th.e less advanced ci vi1iza:ti.!Ons~d l't IUUS'£ be expected that this tendency 'will continue to r cue again and, ,a;gain,. The question of me truth 0:',- a . reed L therefore irr .J,aDt to, DIy purp,os'e; what d oes matter is whether a, creed, true 01 ". 'C' helps, tothe survival o fits, holder, an~ it' is, floln 'chis pOljn:t' ofv.l'cwtbar I shaH try and s'wdy the natural his' .~ry of creeds. ,

I can besr illuserae the Unp'cn:'tan. J, of creeds for survival by beginning wi rh an example which is ~rvowledly mu,choveI~siropMed. One of the e _ nets ofthe Society· [Df:Fri,e-t1d~ is that it is wrol1g eo fighr, Quakers therefere

roS

'C.REE,D'S

W'QoJd. Dot be killed ill war wh _ I, ."~ me: believers of orh 'r fai.ths without this prohibi ion would lose a. fr,ac .... , rioe of their numbers in, ,evlery W'U,. I· eUgi,ous: faitbs have: ,~. s,trolng lendency to, be adopted fro'm the pare'nts~, and '. in each succeeding, ge:ll_ration eh re should be mar'. Quak IS, in proportion to the rest of the population, and y t there is no differetlct' whatever ill the make-up of the genes of the body ,cells. of the two 'types. This example illustrates '[he way in which a creed might aifec[ 'survival; it has, ofccurse been luuch ver '-implifi.ed and ir must not 'be pushed too far,., for if ir WI.fl.- carried to 'the lexrreme all the population would ill the end be noncombatant, with n ,orE 10 prot cr 'Cb'ID fraim, b. mg' ,des,t.t'olyed hy another race,

A much more impcrt Dr example is the ancestorworh~p for~l,er]y prevalent in '. hina .. This imposed on a In n the obligation to have a '£llnily ill order that the worship of the shades of his ance stors might continue, W:i~h. a population like the Chinese in which its poorest members are' always living on tllc edge of srarvarion, there must have been a much gre e _ r c hance of survival fc r til children of tile abler ne pIle :5 ,[ha'l: rhe creed 'W' uld have a s,trollgly eugeni .. 1_lit',cl;. I onrrast this wid the state IOf Europe inthe 'Mid,dI, A res, Th ere it wasthe custom fo[, many of the ablest peo Ilcto go into the church, andso coademn [hems/elv,e··, eo s,terili,ry~ Ev,tD_ if there was often laxity aboer 'flu: le,n£~ reernent olf celibl~u::YI ,a. p'~ist,,~; children would b illegidrnat . ~ and 50 would be handicapped instead of b ,- ing favom,ed in, their chances, of survival. This difference- of creeds, goes with a remarkable difference of h iseories I' and, it ~ll1;ly well. have'

1'09

THE,N.E:XT .MIL'LION YEARS,

been an important contributing facto;l' to the .difference:. Both the: Chinese and the Roman empires were attacked 'at various times by barbarians, and whereas the Romm Empire was so disrupted mat it took nearly ~ thous~,d ye;aIS for civilization to return to itt the Chinese Ewpu'e absorbed irs Mongol conquerors after ·only two ge.ner'l-' nons .. Is it not probable that it is largely on accoune of ·the creed of ancestor-worship that the Chinese ci:viliz:a ... tion has been the' one in the world that has shown the most continuity ~and. me one that now has a fifth of the' ,w-:, ho Ie' hn 'me~ ..... r ... rp.'

-.~,'_.'_IV,') __ '._'_;: ~,:_:,~~ :_-II:l:L~~

In the smdy of the naturalhisrory of 'ehecreeds, of the p.a;st~1 it is inevitable 'to consider the religiolls ere . - in . par·tic:illa:r, both because th·eyare the enes rhat havte roused the .passions'. of humanity far the lll.ost,and aha. because we have much fuller records of them than of m)S others, Ie must be remembered that from 'me presenrrl' point of view the ·question of the truth or falsity 0:£'9., religion. is not directly .relev,a,ntj the only question is its inBuence on the history of the human race .. In esch of tile great religions of t11f'wodd, however diff'eI,ent th~· purely theologilcal doctrines may be, there ha;s been ". general ethic which has: exerted a. siteadyan\d. beneficeg,t influence: on iea believers ... The etbics of the' differcn:t rdi.gions . have nor been ·V'·ery d··ent~ smce their nla~m aim is, to inculcate the social virtues which are essenti,[ .iflif:e is ro be 1:o1era'ble in any lootnmunity~ large 0[' small. For tcxample., a virtueas Christian and avirtuous Mas"'" .lemwill have' very similar st.andards of conduct dictat~a to 'rllem by their very different :r;eligio.ns" and the:sc standards will be hardly different .frODl. 'mole dicta.ooQ,

11·0

CREEDS

by ale Confucian philosophy.. 'Theinf1tl~ce of dle..e ethical principles has, been immense, and, if I do not discuss' theta ftuther, it is not for want of recognizing this influence; it is because they do seem to .have worked out to the same .conslequenGe5 no matte'! what the' religion fionl which they started, whereas an .obj ectiy,e study of creeds must be primarily concerned, wid] ·thee di.fferent ,cons·elquences- that they may have produced. A greater interest attaches to the. aspects of religio~s creeds where enthusiasm or even fanaticism has entered, because it is these enthusiasms that have been responsible for the OlO.St· striking events in history, For the rest of this chapter I shall use the word creed therefore in chis more restricted sense ..

In this narrower sense, creeds are almost lik.e living ihings'llpossessing :l. course of life, fr'Ol11. birth through

- -. d' th ~h· .le-·· . r -

maturityto I __ ea,.ide anaiogy is impertectm one res-

pect~. ·SU1CC.aU teo often; aftcrthe g'en,- enthusiasm fo[, the creed is dead, there is left behind. a minority II"" sort of fOSisilized. lum;p." which continues co hold rbe doctrines ofrhe creed for centuries afterwards. W'ith this qualification, and perhaps with other exceptions, it would seem. a I'O'ugh gencraHzation that creeds tend to Iive fOI 'two. or

-kL -. . .. • ,. b· "11'_1 . L'.

three.centnries, or eo ,expreSS:it m-10'lo_glcaa tneasurc, ret

not more than ahout ten generation.s.

Consider some ofrhe creeds, that have flourished excessi:vely inside the' Christian religion, In the fourth and fiEch centuries there were fatUl:ti.cal creeds associated with meesphysleal quesdces of the 'nature of the deity1an:d men were ready '[0 die, and to kill.1 for the sake of suhde

'111

THE N :BXT'MlLLI,ION Y.E:A.IlS 'questi,ons~ inoo:m:plJ!b,ensibJ.e· to us now:" conneered wirh d),e' nature ,of ,mleTrmity. As time went Ion. this creed resched irs old ;~e and rended [01 become :It poliocalpersecu:dton" not ofmdjvidu:us" but 0'_ 'whole IlLatiOns, :5'; as thesethar had, adopted rhe Alian heresy. Then atgain in d1C' eleventh century there were the Crusades, a more :fitting creed for the semi-barbarous peoples of westeJ;:Jl Europe·, They lasted ,9. bont two centuries, and also d&:g'ellera'rc,d in the end into a political instrument £o:r ,rivLit

C~· .- '. . ';L b -- ~ _. h d li .... , lef f' , th

11nStlan p:art1}es~, Wb,Q:Y tnar nme ' I ae ntne _ ett -0 . t re

original enthusiasm :~g-ain:st Islam, Then rhereis the ReEOrlll3l£ion"wbich started i[ow,ards the begiruring of che sisreenrh century, Some may hold dUl( we are ,s,till roo Ileal' 'the -Relo:rmario:n '[0 proncunce an opinion 011 '1'11 presenr vi'tdi'ry"1 bur ir is certain [hat' 'in C'(]IIDOUl ha.dv,cr.y maled,aUy chmgoo within little more d]j~U:11 at century, fO'I' 'the Thirty Years Wat was, a. war fo,r' powe'!', nor for rdigion, even 'though it was largely berween Protestanss at1:d Cath~Hcs., It would be most interesting to stud~ 'whether therewere .silnLlar growr.bs ,and decays ofcf,eedS in Is:lanl or: Buddhism, mel abo to study me beha:viouc of suchcreeds as.p,hilo!slOphicd Stoicism, which n,evet prav,oked dlf:' same be,[!Cf,fanarticism as ,did me:rcIi:gi'ous

ICI'IBleds.. -

Another fcam'[l~\ IC£' creeds seems eo be rarr:hor'gtetleral. '~hougb the ,ml:3!jority of 31, POp'uia'rion" say somedDng :like DjD,e-t,enths~,31IOCepiE' 'their' creed im.pJj,cl.cl'y andreBard i'e' 3\S, pm of d1e: I.a.w of nl,1:U[e~, mereLii, alway.s: 3" small mi~'Dri~ty~ho, ~o not, Mo,s[p,colp,I,ecall dl.em me she~p ........... i"oUow the ideas, ,oftheir leaders 'unqu.esrio,ningly, b'ur. this minori.ty~the~ goats~loes by contraries, and dis-

('12

CR,E . .8~DIS

beli,ev,e:sanytbingj US! because mos,e ,a'ro'ood. them believe i't, 'The goats are ofren l1ot'v:cry pleasant people, bu,'[ du~y ar~ u!uJaDy abovethe average of m'rclHg;ence,. 'Ie is PIO~' 3b]y the corroding inflncnee of'rhe goats rb31r g;raclnally' saps the viraiiry of a creed by iu cumulative infecrionoo and indeedthere J.llay well be a prcporricnality between [h~ ,11'LJ,mbe'[ of g'oa,:c~ in n communiey and the Hfe span of the creedof the: sheep in tbar community.

In future hiseory rhe constancy of hUllla11 nature makes i~ certain thatman will continue to he !douilala,ted by ,enmusiasmfo[ creeds ofone kind. or another; he will persecute and be persecuted ,again ,3Jld, again :fQ[' 'du:: s:ake of ideas, some of whicbto~ate'r ages, wiD seem of no importance, and even unintell ble, Bur 'mere: is one mnch mere v:alua.'b~,c as:pecr of creeds, thaI muse 'be noticed, Tlley serve '[,0 give ,3, oandimui£y '[0 policY' far g.[c,a:ter thall can usuaUy'be attained 'by illteBe:c'tual 'COD-' vicrion, There: are mallY cases in "history of enli,ght-ened statesmen 'who have devoted their lives, to car:cyiDg through son~e measure for the general good .. They may hav~ s:Dcc:ee~ed~ ~ruy 'to find that the next ;generation neglects all ,they have done, S'D, rhat i:t becomes Wl,do.I1tC agajD~ in hV'OUf of some other quite ,diJfe'r:enrE w,ay o( b'en1ebtin,g b~anj'ty. T,l1,C.' inrellecmal adoption of a poUty ,thus IQfren hardly survives fo,l' more tll,m Ii single g:eneralion,. m.d fbi:, is too sbol't· ,I, period fOil' such a'l? - .. eooverccme 'the' rremeedoua ,eKects o:f'purechaolCf;,. But if the poJi.cy can, arouse enough enthusiasm eo be mco.r ... · porated illl a. creed, rhen there is: 3:t least :;1 prosp1ecrthat it, will continue to.f_ so,.medlin,g like' ten s,elle.r.a:rio,ns, aDd . that is long enough [0 give a fa:ir probabnirydlae it will

H II!

THE NEXT MILLI.ON YE .RS

p.rc:vaU OV!~ the operations of pUIe chance .. Thus a creed may hav the rudiment of rhe QL1Hry"os.sess:ed by tb~· gene.s of mankind, 0fbeing ableto produce a permanent effect on humaniry,

Ifr;b history of the furu:r,e is not regarded as the· autom' ric WlfoldiI~g of a sequence of unconerollable events ..........aDd rew 0" us wuld. accept this inevitability-tllanyone who bas decided what measuresare desirable for the· .pennaneld· betterment of his f.ellows will naturally have Ito consider whar is, the best method of carrying his,' poll y through. There are three levels at \vhic:h he might work. Th - flfSt and weakest is hy direct conscious political acnon; his. policy is likely to' di . ith him and so to! be inetTe rive .. The' second is by the CI' • don of 3. creed, sm,ce this bas the prospecr of lasting for quite ,3 nu:nlb,cr of g,enl{~r,airions, so chat there is some prospect iQf really changing rhe world a little with it The third would be by dir,-ctiy changing man's na ur • working mrotJ"Sthe laws ofbiological heredity, and if ellis could be done for long enough it would. be really effective. But even if 'we blew aU about nW11's genes, which we cc(tairlly do D.O·[.,.3. policy of'this kind would b almosr imposs~ble 'EO enf ,t ev __ for ~ shorr time, and since it would ita~ _', many ,G>_'- erations to carry it through], ir would a1n]015t !ceIl:ainly be dropped 1.00'8 b.efore my p,crcreprible le£fec'_ were' achieved .. That is why creeds ar so tremendousl'Y important fo.[ the futu[le; a creed ,gl'vc:s the best .prac,l.icd,l hope th r a policy will endure w,eU beyond the life ofies author. and so' i[ gives the best practical. hope that man can ~ _ ave :fo" rcally· controlling his: [unlIe fate·~

1.14·

vn

MAN,-A WILD! A._IM.AL

N the past [\VO leila pt, rs J have examined difterent ,aSpc1ctl 'of th e nature of Juan. In the first he was regarded just like a_ny other species 'of wild animal, while in the second 501U- of his social qualltics were considered, which migJl't nor be regarded as those of a wild, animal. Civilisation might, loosely speakin ,- I be' counted as a sort of domestication, in rhat ir iD.lpOSCS on man condirions DO·C ar all typical of \wd.life·., 1·[ migll't then a:t leas[ be' argued rhat it is a ,we .alla]0'1U' ro c 'mpate Ulan to a wild animal bur hac hie should rather be compared 'to 'One Whllch 1 as b· en domesrieated, Lsl ·11 maintain that this analogy would be false, and mat man is and will always' continue tab essentially a wild and not a tame animal

Before coming to, this, main theme' it is important eo notice thar, if it 'W r admissible ro regard man a a dam sricaeed animal, the whole rime-s 'ale of hist ry would have [0 'be radically altered ... Thus though the g·eological evidence shows that it rakes a, million. y·ears 'to make a. new wild .speci,cs. we know dUL£ the various; domesticated animals have been created ill a, very much shorter rime. For example, the aile tots, of th - :' reyhound and the bulldog ofren thousand years ago would probahly have: be D CJ.ui'ce· indistinguishable, If then

II".

T,HE ,NE,XT MlLL10lN Y'E,AR.,S

mall's cbar:ac"teris[ics c.ould, be sunilarly :relI1oulded in m sJlort a time" the whole future~ ofhistory ,nru,ght be :[',adioally di:[e:ren:t~ It would, become irnposaible to fOl'",m:casc man's, fu:[ure ,after asshort .3. period as ten thousand yel[s~ 'ltudl'liong:e:r 1[1),3;0 the span of kn,loW11. ,p,a;S'C bis,tory'" n~stead of themillion y,cars, whicl1 bol,ds if he is, :3. wild

"'1'111"1, ,~ 'n"III. <'lI'1 ~_';la'J~

In ,the 6rs,r pblceJ) I'f is necessary to be' clear as to what is: meant 'by a wild or a tame animal. We are' aJPt'SOimetimesto call an animal wild because it is, da:ngerousi to man, and to call it tame because i'e is harmless, but' dus is a slo,venlyway ofs,pe:akin~1! a11d here I shill use the Wllfd

"tame" sinlpfy as a. syno.nym for' "dcmesdcaeed" . I

I iliink is :its, rrue me~ning~A tame mimal men is, anI!' 'that does dllC 'will of amastea ". ,'nd the savage wa:tch-dog. :Q"amed eo bite ill intruders, is tamer thm 'me' fri,,:Cj mdllly '~errier which sometimes slips: 3.W3.y 'E'O do. its own p'riv,are bLmwlg. AU taBle, animals ,owe: their 'Jlli]itie_s, to Ctl1- tueies of selective breeding" and it must always be remembered that the changes made mthem 0,911: nodring to' the' inheritance . ef :aJcq,uile,d eharacters, ~'11~ are .du.e to 'me selection for 'breed~gof thosemdivid'uil anim_als, whi,ch 's.ho,wrol the hi,gllest degree namral cbaraC(;erUuC5 weft:d '~D their' ~Dl3S[eri,.

A chief fEanll"it' in ido,m'CSjitiCillted. animals bas been 'the ,cre:3)d,QD ,ofa gr,ea'c VaI]cry' of''b:reeds:~ leach ,s,pecidized, :far S!OMe: parrl.cubr PUl'pos;e"eiilieI practical 0'1' aes,thetiC'. Each breed farexeels irs wildances'try jn, 'me' quality fer whiCh if has been 'br,ed, SIO 'tll;tr,:IC:~h.oifse5 run faster than ·wiJ.d horses, ,dairy ,CQ,WS ,giv,c m,uclt. more ~m'ilktha_D

any wild. Icatt[e~ and the :sbece~og 'basCV'CB been br!~4 ro

[16,

MA"N-...A WIL,DANIMA,L

do skUfUlly the: exact' oppos,ite' of whatthe ancestral wolf would have done, Now' human fa,lnnies often .show special qualities in wll1ch they excel their fellow~s" and in some cases these q oaliries seem to he hereditary ......... witness dle musicians of flu: B,ard] f31n.ily.1f 111m is n'!aUy a tame animal, 'mere is no reason "Thy breeds ofn13n should 11:Dt be' created, slay breeds, of mathematicians Of' of pr,o~ :fessional runners, who. should possess gifts, fa!' heyond 3tly'thlng we nOI\V know, and £'lI' heyoudanythmg rhar [heir fellows could compere againscCertainl y at the present time mankind is very far fro.D1 this, but eba,r would not exclude the possibility in. the ,lltOCSO very distant fu;wre'" .if man [,e.aUy were a tame animal. ,[ sh,a.U consider this question of special breeds later in the chapter in more detail; all. the evidence seems to show [ha.c Idler will not' arise, b,UE '(()i see this cIeady~ it is, hcs:r [0 re rum to' 'rIle' prirne fe~l.'rme of tameness, obedience' '[,0,

"'3" master,

It is obvious dun we ,inrhHcO'w,lln:y~ with our passion

· for fieedonl.I, value wilmless; very highly.t whereas In some la.n,ds~twbere the popularien are conrem 1',0 live under amuchmore 5triccJy controlled rule IOf discipline, tameness ,may he more nca.I'Iy accC:Pt,a,bI.,e;" This q uestion of[a;,nt!; is, irrelevant however, :f{U~ it might he' th3J.'t a. 'Cl:nD"e race e,Q,'uld achieve S,Ot 'Dlucb higher 3L deg;n~:e ofeftlci.ency

]- _j. .,.11. • lid' .. . d ·d'·- lei

thar it COD~Q masaee 'U1C 'Wl1-', IOlUeS" an, s,o' ree uc tnem

alsoto a. state of tameness. I arm ,going [0 maintain m:a,t [his cannot happen, in dU1C man is: untameable. The' :r,eaSOI1 involves I fe,atun: not aflen ,p'f,es·anr in .scientific' arguments, and I will venmre ro in.:a'o.dulcr; ie 'by mea'ns of ,3, fahle'.

TIfIE ,NEXT MILLlO,N YEA,aS

There was a man who was endowed 'with very grea~ incelligence, very 'grent wealth, deep scientific knowledgr;! and a benevolent wish 'to improve the' lot 'O£'t1linl kind, Healso knew himself co have ,the gifr oflongevir;y, so that he had the: prospect not onJ[y of sta.rting on his beneficent plans" but of s,eeing them through 'tothair fmal accomplishment,

_ N.o:v ir chanced. rhatabour this, time' there: came 'up for sale a large uninhabited Island, f:luoyillga ,clirnat~in every_ way fitting it fo:r human habitation. He purchased the island." and persuaded a Jarge number of his friet11ds and admirers te come with him, and toserrlediere 'an:!&

'Ii' .• d I"· d · "

, rve un ~:er .us ·,~lrectlon.,

The. director first made a thorough. ,study of his pe;ople's namral gifts 'and capacities, and then he' set each man and woman to. rhe work for 'which 'ch,ey w~re' s,peciaUy fi:~ted .. Artisans were chosen who had 'bothsltill in. cl~afcsulaJ:'lship and a liking for their trade, domestic servants who had 31 passion for cleanliness, and codas who were really interested in the 'taste of the food Wrlzy produced.

He chose for schoolmasters rhose who, couldbe-tl: inspire their pupils,; his, p,ro.fess'Jrs and researchwolk~~ were selected because they showed the highest' flights "of scientific imtlg,inatio,n; his lawyers possessed the gre~~u:at subdety in ar,:gum,ent; his: civil servantsand indusrriali!ts 'were those who were gifb:d with the highest qualities df administrati ve ability.

Nor ~id heneglect the other sides of hispeople's :iqterests, for heselecred those who. were gifced at p·ainring and music all'd. ,poetry and encouraged them to pra.ctise lIS

M.AN~A. WI:LD ANlM.A,,L.

their arts, lie' abo had actors .and actresses of grea.t charm and beauty, and athletes ~ho could run v,ery fast" jump very high, o.r guide a ball with remarkable ,accuracy~

Having laid "the foundation of his plan in this manner, he persuadedthem all through his dominating pe,rsoll"'" :lHty~nor" be it said, was, .compulsion entirely absent-> to mate together in such a manner that [he various special gifis ofeach gl'O'LlpWere'collserved and enhaneed.

Those of the settlers who proved unsatisfactory in mind or body ~er,e gradua.lly eliminated, 110'[ 'by exile or punishment, but merely by for'biddil1g them eoenter

into tcrtUeunions.. -

At the end ,of ten tbOUS,3.11d years, he had achieved 'results in humanity even more remarkable '~h~Ul those that have been already achieved in [his span ofrirne in our domesticanimals, His actresses were of surpessing beauty, andhisathleees, whose limbs had attained very highly specialized proportions, were so ,pe:rsH,tendy vicroriousthar .il1ternatioltalconre:st5 b ecameimpossible, All the really ingenious machines in [he world were contrived hy his engineers, and in their construction his artisans were pte..,etninen't. His diplomatists,coll1d always get their way with the diplomatists of other co unrries, His, researchworkers made remarkable pr,o-' gress in the' developrnent of scientific kl1.o'wledgC'~, though it was perhaps 110(. ofcen'they who started any

whoUynew sn~ject. .

The direcror had produced this, surpassing improvernent in the qualiry of his subjects in the courseof ren thousand ye'ars, when it Was revealed to him that his life was nearing its end, And. IlOW he saw that his work had

l:r!}r

THE N'E,XT ,MILLIO',N y'E,AkS

been in vain, becaus ' he had made no prevision For

successorto himself ·

Be had 'moulded :lUI ,subjects so' dlat they £u]ft]led their casks superla:rive'lYIi because: he could, I,o,okac tho - 'tas"ks objecrivd:Y',~,bU't his owntask he could onlykno subjectlv,ely, and the prescriptions, he had used for 'lb others, were without avail,

H -had tamed men ill co being domesticanimal 51 bru he: ,co''l,dd nor 'tame anyone into being ,3: director, becaus a dir ector must be =- wild and not a arne animal.

Though this _ ba~ only been pres:ented as, a fablc, the exp'erience with domesticated animals does show that the Ul0,S't asronishing improvemenes could be made in the v rious human E __ culeies if a simil- - ICOW'~ e of con ....

tinuous selection onld be 3_'plied tOI '01,' n over as I;OllB - period. ,of time, The '[rouble' is (bar: f()!f man rhis iSI not possible, because he has, g,ot to apply the selection '~O himself and [hat,[ means rhat it is not merely a diffe[!-' It problem, but a wholly different kind ofp:r,ob[,em~ There is a fiuncla.mLen:tal differ, 'bee beeween dl' su'bjectivlc an the . - =~Iecrive.. Scientific prog[less, hasalways succeeds - ,onJy 'by f,egarding its, themes of study objectivd'y; even in dl-' field IQf P' yclll-SY progr:-ss has, mainly come by the study ·ofili.e' minds of others, that is to say objectively, instead ,ofby 6QUowing the old barren course of inrresp _tin., The most severe critic of his" wn conduce e .icv,er judge his actions as if thelY were someone' e,be:t6, and d~e selective br ,ding of other types of p~opl would be no guide a.t all in the breeding of his own kind

If t'hl! direcror ha.d fores,een his dearh, he' would b3:v r '

M,AN-,A WI:LDI ,AN'I~M,Al,

tried to produce a successor to himself Since his profound belief'in heredity had been :SJO hilly confirmed by the remarkable changes he bald made in 1 is 511bjeots" he'

,ould n ,'rurally ICXP ct thar it c. ·ould be In - of-his own sonsthat would be' best :fin:eid tOI succeed, him, bur his diffi,calcy would he' just tbe same if he 'W re trying to :find a successor elsewhe r ~ '. The matter is, on quite a diffr"en:nc footing frO:ll1all his other decisions, for the' '. rhers he -uld say: 'iI h v - improved all .our breeds by

eeing which son improved on the quali i I fhis father.

That is, why I. select 1"01'0",1-1 For his, '£)'WI1 successor the 1\[-, most he could ,say would 'he uI am sele till, c' 'YOU in the hope that you may he Do better director than I have been. But I hive nOI idea, hOiW' you, will 'set about it, since, if I bad kn ~. -I what I w~ '_, f:__iling in, m should have see it right mysI-)['" The rarg!els ill the two srarements are qWlt!: diffi r'C11'r, fo:r HI one' he knews what he is: aiming 3l,'t~, in 'me other he does not. In one case 'the, cug'-t is to mal£, the mall. better, ill the other to hope' '[0 make him as good, One is Ithe ,s;ysretu'leQC breeding of,taJl'lle animals II rhe ,ortb '~' 'the unsystematic method of nature in rh breeding of wild animals ..

This, p,int is: SICI import,3Jl't tha.t 'befO'I. ' fOUOwlng it '10, its conclusion I win giv'eanorher exampl ,. which has, the, Idvclll:C'age of not being fahuloU's .. In their studies ,of how to imp(\O'v,e the hum_Jl race 'the eugenise ha.ve very nCl,rurally considered both ends, of their pr .. blem, me increase in, ,the good qLlaJi:ries of humani:ty and IthC' elimination of the bad qualities: Their cbilef effort has gone, quite rightly at first, into the easy part of the problem, and 'they have spent 'most ,of rh',ei.r en.e[,gy in

~21

T}-]E NEXT MILLION YE,ARS ,poitttiI1go~t 'the disastrous '~endencies of ~e 'pr~s~nt policy of directly encQlIragjn,g the breeding of ,eh.c feeble-minded. This is undoubtedly useful work, hut It

- ,_ c. bT. · d' d b

is comparatively easy t since these ree ore-min f!:. can, ")'.

'regarded o~Jectivd.y by their superiors"and so mi;gP,t become amenable to the same sort of control as is appUaable to domestic animals, This restraint of 'the breeding of the feeble-minded is important, and it must never l~ce neglec:tedjl hut it cannot beregarded as a" r-eallyeifeai"W way of improving the human r~Lce'. If by analogy Ollie' wished to improve the breed of racehorses one might accomplish a little by always 'slaught_ering tb._ horse ,that finished last in every race, but it wOl1ld be a much slower process than the actual one of sending the winner 'to' ,the stud farm.

, Conscious, of this criticism, eu genists have often

attempted to define what are 'me good characteristics which should be positively encouraged, instead of on11 ,the negative ones that must be' discoura-ged, 'but ,the' resulrs 'are disappointing .. Lists of meritorious ~uallties, such as good health, good physique', high intelligence, good fanlily history are compiled, and those posseslsmg; them are told tha't they should breed" but 'me stateme.IS, lead. 'nowhere in practice, fOor no. one can be expe~ted tOI assess his ownmerits and! demerits in a balan ccd 'w,ay Ii How, fOlr example, is, a man to' weigh his ~~, good health or good ability against a heredity made dubious, say I by an uncle, who was insane or again how iSI he to strike a balance between considerable artistic gifts~,as he thi~,together with a ,g,ood family record, but Iquite bad health, Ie is cleaJdy beyon:d anyone 'co decide

1.2;3

MAN~,A, WILDAN'lMAL

these things for himself: and even then the matter is lo,n1y balf settled, since' similar j udgments are needed for both partners 'to the marriage., However helpful the literature l'l1ay be which can be consulted, it is evident that subjective judgments on such matters are too difficulr; 'with

[he best will in the world they would very ofren be made wrongly, because, however sincerely he tries, no man can be a good judge in his OVID case ...

The only imaginable way ofovercomin gthese difficulties would be to set up a, class, of consultants; who, would prescri be what marriageswere eugenically admissible and how large the cOl1seq uenr fimilies should he. But this, does nO'E solve the difficulry; it only pushes it, back. a s[age,~ for it leaves, unanswered the question 'who are to 'be the consultants, and what principles are 'to guide them in settling the values of the di1ferent qualities, of mankind ... 1 t comes back to just the difficulty 1 described in my (able", that a 'came animal must have a mauler. and that therefore though. it might conceivably be possible to tame the' majority 'of mankind, 'this could only be done by leaving un tameda minority of [he population. Moreover, this minority would have to be the group possessing the DIOS.t superior qualities of ' all.

These examples suggest the impossibility of 'taming mankind as a whole, but before accepting the principle fully., it isproper [0 examine a, ease where the exact CODtrary has, happened; this is in the insect civilizations of the ants or termites, In applying the same' term, civilizanon, 'to both ants and men, it is hardly 'necessary to say that I am drawing an analogy between things which are ,reali y of ,9. very differellt 'q ualiry, ,All species of ants live

12'3

ill cities, and some species have' developed agriculture, others animal husbandry; but: ,aU these practices, tre purely instlnc'tive and indivi!dualto eachspecies, On the other hand hwn~ civilization. is an ~quired ~haracJt'e,r, based on education, and so IS not inherent mm:=i s nature. -N evertheless it m-ay be 'worth while to. fon~ow out the ,analog:y a Utile further. Admitting the Idiff"eifent sense ,o'frhe words, it' may be said 'ma.t an species of~llts have: made the third revolution, the invention of eimes" that some' have: made' 'the second; agriculture" none' the first or tOl1rdl"hre and science; but tlley have all added another revolution of their own" the complete contte;l oft1teproblem ,ofs~. The 'ants; nest' has no rulers at all, fur 'the queen is hardly more man an egg~[aying methlnism, and they seem to get on pe.tfe,ct]y w~U wimotlc: civil, servants 'Of' lawy,ers or ca:p'tains of indJJS-' try,

-r-W-···h· • . ]-":1- .:11

··.··.···.··_:ycannot man set up a, commumry nxe an ,aA([ts,

nest? This would be the ideal of the mttchist,ma him«to ir has held no promise at all ofsuccess, but widl <the help 'of recent andprobable ftl,tu'rt: biolo:g:ics] discover.ies, some sort of imitation by man of the ants' nest c:a,onOl: be quite ,excluded fr'om consideration. Thusthe. c."On~l of me numbers ofthe two sexes .may become p'()issi~Le, and with me- knowledge of the various sexual hormones it might abo become possible 'to ftee the majority 10£ mankind :from the urgency of sexual impwsellso, Piat '[hey ~Qllld live contented celibate Uves,[rutJcadof th.c u:t]sa,tisbed ceHbate lives d1a:tare 'the compulsory laiC ef such a ,luge fraction of the present population ,of the world .. Ifcbe'se discoveries should be made=-and dli •.. ~

1.24

M-' -A' N-- -, ~ W-······["L·c D·· .~ '", .. , '1M'· ,"-L'

" •. _1 '.1 n ," _ E.' fill ,I.:"'! .1 n

'really by ),1.0 means imposri.hl~mm would be able ('I carry out the sex revolnrion whieh is rhe r ·cal ChM~ acrerisrie of the insect civilizations .. 'Tlle ,derail WQuld ,of course have- to be quite differenc" for ins:t;ead. of one q ueen there would have to be' large: numbers of .fertile women eo renew 'fhepopularioll, whereas there might be: one king" literally the -father of his country., At~€1 ir ia,probahle' 'mac on account ef their greater physita~ strength, it would be rhe'nlen who would beche workers,

.Such an organiaarion is certainly rep,ellel1tly unattraorive' to most of us-perhaps excepting some ofthe anrocrars of the preseut world-but it is, not this 'mat e;teludes tile possibility ofit, There is no danger whatieve:r of its happening, because of the inherent difl€rence between vertebrate and insect, for the verrehrate is SOl ve~much.mcre flexible than the Insect in its behaviotn; M,Qst :U'ls!ocn s,im,ply die .if placed, on anunfamiliar food planr, whereas thevertehrate will always try ex'peJi~ ments if Its normal diet fills~ An insect can be used., 'tiO: prey on and destroy anotherone that has become a I!~S'lt~ and, when it has! done so" tlJ,e predstorwill die of staIV''-a''''" rion; in the sante [ole a vertebrate predator wo;ttld fiot die, but would start to destroy some other, p'eth~p, beneficent, species. Now' of all vertebratesman is p.re""' eminentin his 'willingness to try exp,eriments"so that itJs, inconceivable: 'that he should settle: down into the .in-

_. . - ~ - . - - . _. . - - - . . -"l.

flexihle t1l1q uestioning CQ;UfSe of life 'that is typical "'if aninsect. It would call for :1 quire radical changein his whole nature. Ie would not be a mere chat"lge into a new species ofltotftodlat would beneeded, nor evena change

125

THE NEXT M'[LLION YEAR.S

ineo a 'new genus or family or order of the mammal Ir would. have ito b a fundamental change into a, DI

h "1 - r-":II- -, • 'I ki d d-' _L

P Ylum I()!: - Ole' aruma ~lln,g~ om, an- 'tn3t' 'woul,d :D, -'r

take I mere million years~ hut ~'Uly hundreds of mil lions of years ..

•

There is no p'ropett ,of man's nature i mira tin , insect's, hut it its much more' nearly imaginable that hi s developmentshould go, like that of due dogs, into a set o:fh:[~eds each ,s,p~ciali~ed fo: a particular purpose, We allof us kno'w of whole human, familiesj whi,ch -' 'OM' .. ::t~ ,gifis specialized in some particular din ction, and if __ specialization were narrowed andth, gifts. improved .' 1 all Icom'peri~o'rswcre surpassed" such ;, fan,jly would have ,[~~Jltcd_ ~,tself into :3. breed, Bur all r= hist ,ry ,Clontr3iUcts, this tendency j for it SU,' ga chat whr, VI

tb '_ re have been :such groups eh y have not mer c, ~

furth . _1L-" _: - 'I!!_ d _II_:1L 11.. ., 'I Co

er m m, lr'.specia.llZ '_ sxius, bur mar art r a very Ie

generations, they have tended 'to me,rge back inro ,I' glen.~a1, population, I will give some examples, tJio~ugh ~y kncwledge of history is hardlY' dr' IC'P ,enougb to ~'-

them 'with ,my con:6den,c, .' -

.A . f~t example may be drawn, from the sanctity royal ~lo'od~ whiro, has be~ a, pre:. alen ' idea in ma _ Y COWltt1.~:. and whicb would give opportunity fo.r dl in-breeding that is essential for the prod ocrion of ,specialized breed, The most exrr m" ease is, rha ,0:( . dyna-tr of rhe Ptolemics in Egype whose blood w count, -d as s~ sacred dutt the reigning house had (0 b per:pc tuared by brcther-and-siseer m c riages, Biolos i . DOl longer ,DO,W regard close in-breeding as, neoess' .~' y

'l,z6

MAN-A W1LD ANIM.AL

dd rerions, but stin the possibiliry of its evil.ffects fllig_he throw' doubt on any positive conclusions we ,.ouldctra,w' from the Ptolemies, But the only conclu ... , sions th_a~t call be drawn are entirely negative'; me record of [be dynasty is nor v,ery impressive, ~.t is neither much _ etter nor muchr e than mat f .I'the[' dynasri [hat had )l!~,t been in-bred and ~ the end, it collapsed, as, did ~~le other dynasties, under the irresistible might of the Romans, Neither in this extreme case, nor ill t let more modern ones, is mere any sign ofa tendency for a breed ~o,arise that is specialized t4 r kingshi p.,

It might be CO] tended that 'ill number IQ.c individuals in reigning houses is, too small to give rise 'to ~., breed.and ~y nlexr. ~xanllple concerns a, much larger population, It IS 'the' military cast of German nobles in the sixteenth, seventeenth and i: hreenrh cen uries, Whatever rIte extra-nut rial habits of this, caste, i,ts rna - -iages w re most strictly regula,red, so that it might have, -provided the starting point for a specialized, breed, It is undou bredthat th~se noble ,fam_ili,_S provided scm 'V,CI\JI good generals; this w s inevitable since in rbeir own country theY' 'ha,d the m:_anopoly of he officer ranks" hut rhey wer " ot conspicuously bert ,.-, than other generals who. did nor belong to the casre, In making the comparison it might be rgued that Louis XlVls generals should be excluded, as themselves he: ongin.g to a similar caste, but rhe IGerman :milicary nobles were &l,SQI fi'r excelled by others, such as Marlborough, 'who, th _ ugh of gentle birth, cerrainly wa~ not drawn froD1.the military caste, Purthermor j if this caste h ,d shown promise ,of turning :~- to a breed. it, ,5h,ould ha,v,- pC1od,u.oed bc,tter generals at the end

127

~rHENEXT MILLION' YEARS of three ,cdlturies 'than at 'the: beginning, whereas IF dJj:ng:they had degenerared. Excluding N apoleon '1",'11"_'(o,mparisoD, as an exception to all ru]es,~rhey showed marked ,supe·rioriry over his marshals, who carn,e '/ . , all classes of society ~ In 'thr-ee h,und.rcd years rhis ''Calf certainly showed no signs of curning into a specialmc breed.

.A more srriking example is the caste: of theBI',~a. i11 India, because its puriryllas been preserved ,0vet many centuries by the religious sanctions of rheir cree~" 'They hlave' the adVatllCag,e ofbeing muchmore ntlm,~jQUS than 'the castes I have cited hitherto, and they have v~ryof!rminl;r played a conspicuous part in the hl$tery ·of India, bue they show none of the tendency to an increase in specialization that should characterize ttle creation of a breed, 'since [hey were never 3 rniHtary caste ic 1$ not surprising that maJ1Y of rhereigning bowi:s of India are not Brahm,ansl"and tIle: priesdy funcdol!.: ef the Brahman would more naturally destine him to play, the part of philosopher or mteUecruaLN,ow it is, ~mac that in 'the modern Indian universities a con~:ideral:ilc: fraction" perhaps a maJority, 'of the distinguished pl~ fessors belong to this caste, b'tn s·tUl there are q,uire :a .number oforhers as oiS'tin,gllishedwho donor .. It ,seem,s at least dOllhtflll wllether in :this, ~ther,e is ,allY :rcll difference between india andEurope, for inEurope .tS10 a,Vfery considerable £faction of the intellectual ,Ji(e is, contributed by _ wha:E: rught, be called me: heredi.tary middle dg,ssl5l!dutt is hyfamilies which have 'continlieU through succeeding gen,er,ations roshow a :general midleccutal ability,. though they are in 11.0' sense an "e~cluss,",Ct

128

MAN ....... ,A WELD, ANIMAL

. nste, Once ag:am, in these exceptionally favoll[llble circ u mstances, there is no sign of the Brahmans turning fl'\om a caste into abreed,

This is the plaoe to refer to [he case ofrhe Je\vs" because though very superficially it might be thought . iimilar it is, fe·aUy ,quite different. It is true chat f.or centuries they practised the close in-breeding dmtwo.u.ldbe: needed fo:rme creation .of a specialized breed, but the: point is tbat :they have. shown no signs of becoming specialized, for there have beenjews who have excelled in every one of the arts and sciences of civilized life. One of th.eir distinguishing fealrures, has. perhaps 'been rl1at: they wereearlier adapted, than themore recently civi .... lized western Europeans, to ·the crowded life of cities, hut this is. not so' much a specialization asan adaptarion in which dlCY have anticipated th~ others, In the course of the centuries their race has had one great .a:d,vantage:" rhcn .. lg:h they would certainly very wil ':.'. have fore-, gone it. Tb is is their long history ofalmost continuouspersecution, and it is tempting to believe dl,~tt· 'rhis, ha.s

b ·c .... I thei L= h een an Important tactor an ,glVlllg tnem '_;_"C.,et[lugJ

qualities. In-order merely to keep alive, a Jew' had to' show' intelligence more frequendym,an did 'ehe' StU' ... rounding peoples, and this intelligence was gradually

.incorporated [11 his, .her,edity. But En ,all this there is. 11.0 sign of specialization: at most it is a more complete adaptation to the crowded life of cities, ch.a.Jl has been hith,etr:o shown by the rest ..

,All 'these examples confirm that 'mere are specialized abilities in some .of humanity' and th;:¢ theyare 'oieal here:dira;ry, bu:c [hey hold QU't ·11.0 e'~pec:tatioll ·d12L'tthe

I

Tl-f:B N,EXT ,MlLLION Y,EA,R.S ,specializadollSW,ill spontaneously become narrower ma't tbey will rise to higher levels, which is what ' ' , would, hav'e [to do if msn we're destined a,utoma;ricilly braru:b our into b'[,eeds as disrincr as mOose ofrhe domes 'III, •• ~W, animals, TJll~[em_ay be those who ,will regret ma't' '- . 'will not areain rhese pinnacles: of spe'ciaI1iza[ioR" but: tit :W1~e is inevitable. In order' to [CI1C _IDe such SPCIC" ,-~ broods there would have t!D be a master breed IE [tb summit, and this would be a totally different Jdnd 0 'thing front all the other breeds, because i:t 'would ha've 'to create' itself~

_Alt e:v'cry' [tum ,tbe :ugllmenc Jeads back [rodlis questiOD. o,flthe' lnaster breed, ,Nothing can be done in the way 0 ~ging mm :ff,o,m a wild into a tame ar»maJ. widlou firs:r 'Cl'e3ting such a, 'bf'eed. but most people are en:tirely ineonsistent in their ideas of what they W,l:ot created, 'On the' ODe hand 'they feel that an me- world's pro,ble' would, be: solved ifonly cllef!e were' a 'wile: ,and. good, mm whoweuld ten everylJlo,dy w.hat to do, but [on 'the [other hand 'they 'bitte,r]y f[esentbem,g themselves told, what to do, As tOI wlUch ,oftbese m.oti'v;es would prevail" ire see ~ - ,at 'Ieas,t: ,pro'hable' that it w[o'Uld be [[he fetm,anent:I, sal that if dl,·1 'brtecd sb:o,uld. arise in :my' 'manner" it 'wiowd [be ,exd.lpaced before it could ever become well es;cablhhuct It is I' however, :imQ;,gm.ab]e~ that mere might 'be a, psre 0, ebe: w,or.ld in which the breed W3-S accepted, and that 'this part should grun a s,Llperio:rity over rhe rest ofthewo;dd. because ir ceuld develop V'[idotlS snitablle breeds [0 '. specialism und.Cf me ,e-oorroll md, difecticull ,of the :mLU·'£C 'b':feed~ and, 'by the exercise of £he ,'- ,of these speciaJjis-

.13'01

MAN~A, WILD AN 1M L

it might overccmethe other nations, So it H, appropriate ,to looka little turther into the 'matter ~

Imagine that :through new discoveries Ul bi,ol.ogy., say 'by, swtably comrolled dosie's of ,X .... i"2y!i." itt 'becomes: PO!!"'"' sible eo modify the Belles in my desired direerion, so' that heritable changes can be produced m the q u,ali ties. of some members [o( the human race .. I ma:y :say J do not believe dris is ever hkely ro be practicable, blu: d12,[ does not marter a'S £ar as concerns the present argument .. The firn SU!CCesS, might 'be ill some physical artribute £Or [cxampl~; by making a breed 'Mdt longer 311d stronger legs so Chat it couldjump a good deal hig11cr than myone can [M p:resent. ,But pass,ing romere imporranr matters, there mi.ght be creat,ed a, breed which could think more ,abs'tractly, say a breed, of ma,th,ema:ricialls:., 01' lone [blatt could, think mceejudiciously, say I breed of~ti:gher Icivil servants, These would be of grea:t value, 'b'LU: they wo'uld 110[t be rhemaster breed, [and rhequestion arises of a more precisepreseeipcion for what me qualiries ofrhe master . breed areto be.

~t is ~uany 'b,esc r~1 baUd on wha'£ ODe alread!y has:. fa~leI matn 'to start hOlm n"othing~ So 'me narumlpro ... cedure wOluld beta 'be,giD, 'with ,existmg rulers, since these ,have :ili[eady establisbed Itbenuelv:eS IS, Ilcceptable to at lease ag,ood many of ,theirfeUow creatures, One 'would colleee togerher, Sly,,3, hundred of tbe mostimportanr present t'ulers/""""""""',lDlong them of ICO'lU."[se should be: Included a good many who exert secret influenee: 'wimotl_r: 1101dUlg ally overe office-and teIl [them to :get Ion with the business of settling: wha:£; [he mas:fer b'reoo, mQuld. be, It Is impo5s:ibh:: 't'OI believe ,that, anY' sucb 'body

,JI

THl~ NE,XT MILLIO,N YEAllS

0'£ men would ever reach agreement on any su'bject whatever ~ so this: plat] fails~,

In the search for the qualities ,of the master breed 'the next idea mighr be to appeal to th,e wisdom '0 our torefaclu!'fS., Plato in hisR("JtJ~ib,l i,cdevotesmudl anenrion to' dlls: very subject, W,hy nor then ,find a P]atO~1 give him his - gr'Qupl OIf recruits, and ]err .him edueate che'm for 'HUrty years, ,fU:co'fcUng' to, his; pr'C$clj~ tioln~thoug:h perhaps - fordfynlg' it by the fr_odin.gs·o ,m - ' ,.m ed-ucational theory; the result should be "the m,as:ter breed, But this will not do either, fo,r 'P'Ja~Cl) was, not 'CClUCI,dD!8 the master breed, he WJJ.i, 'educ~dn:1 ,the civil servant breed. It is not about these that there is ,my difficul:ql';, it is 'the fOlding of someone 'tOI fiU the role ,of Plato himself Ie all comes back '10. the POln'C that we do D,O,t ,know in rhe remotest degree 'wbat we W,IDt;, for I de not count as an answer the onethat would 'Usuany 'be proposed, which would, be _ rhar t~ 'type req tlir~!d should be good and wise, while a'~ ~e samerime &bowing at special favour for the particular enthusiasms of the ,propos!er'~ 'Tile reason ,for the hnpIOl:iibUir:y of making: a p:rescri.p:rian fo:r du: master breeitl is Idlat ':it isnot ,I breed at :ill; [0, call it SOl is, '[,0 Ichange:

SICDSC of 'the w,o:rd~ Breedsare s,pecial.ized f.or p!a.rtic'uW' p'urpo,ses:" 'bu,~the essence of masters is dl,a!'[ dley must not 'be specialized, They have '[0, 'be :a,hle;(o dea,~ with

totally unfolrescel1condidons" and this is :21; quali'ry If w:iJd,,· not of tame, ,life,. 'No pres,cripdon, fbr the :m,asep.r

breed is possible, 0' •

Jn 'tbeS'e corui,o, -la(UlS I have been ,as:sum'ing the

liGeD'OC ,of sUPf'Oiing that W,t:: ,nU,ght, - :a:blerleaJly (0

1,3:.3

,M,AN'~,A 'WILD' A,NlMAL

cbange human nature .in a 'heritable manner, andmis is far heyo.nd all probability. Returning now eo more practical considerations, thereseems no, lik,euhood 'what ... ever IQf a master breed. arising, AUthrougb ms[:ory ('he most form.idabl,e' ,difficulry of ev,ery ruler bas: been [he selecrion of his SU,(tCesSOl'I' ,and. the best intenrions ba:ve been near],. always; disappointed, Indeed ,~,E j,s ]lo'rQl,bly surpris,ing' how ve:ry seldom the choice has bere'n we1Jl, made" The immediate eause of these failu.res, h81S been the difficulty cfthe subjectivejtldgmentsl on the basis 0'£ which thechoice must be made, but fundamentallythey havearisen froul a cause it] the deep nature of mankind, 'Of ,all ,a:OU11a1S U1M'l is the Dl05'[ I1ea:dy f'Otly' experiments and. 'du!r'e are ,always candida,t,es-fal" roo many candid,ares-who regard, themselves ,15, he members for the master b:[eed..T:~lis q uwty is 3. characteristic of 3l,wtmd animal" and it wiD alwa,ys F,re-v,mt man frcundomiesd,-_ eating hims,el[ He win ~ways prevenr tbe crea:ti~n of the master breed, rhrough which alone the rest of man could be' domesricared, - The evolntion of the human race will not be accomplished in rhe een thousand Y1ear,s, .of tame animals, bur D,' ehe millicn )f,e-ar,s ,ofwil.d animals, because man is and will ,always ,conmluefo be wild, animal,

:m:1',~; L.l,~

..

vm

I~~:. past ~l~pters.I have discu~~ some of thelmic:

qualidesof man" which showrhat 111 gCineraJ he' behaves"

and will continue 'eo behave, Uke a 'wild animal. Coase'luJendy he. will obey the law of nature by ,mwtiplym,g 'np' ro the limi'r ,of subsistence; and there 'wiUthcre{orc,e l10lrmaJly be 3, marginal g,fIQUP ofbumanity milving ......... and Idying~ait 'me: starvation leViet Tim, H, [be old'dUEe3" of MaJ:dlUS, and, tllef'c are many people Eft rhepresent time who are very eonseious of it, Bnr whei[el:SlMaldIus could only explCess the hope ,tha'[' man would leam

vol~c~ny. _to: restrain hims'elf ~'onl ?1.ulr.iflying uP' to the Iimir, It has, been found since 'then that in some countries, 'and, those among the most ,pr,osperous,:! the ,popul~tiO!n's are sp,oml[M~elously becoming stationary lor :even decreamt:g,.!fchen" it is argued:, some eouaeries h,avc,_ created eondieiens whidl a.otomatl£jcally somv,e 'the prlob,iem of over .... pop- ·OII1J, wb,y should not these same conditions produce rhe same results in :ill countries, and then we could all 'be comfortable t:oger11er" I am gaillg to maintain tha;t;~, though such limirations of ,po,pll1ation n1ay recur locally fro-m time to time" the: condition is essentially an 'Ul1sra,blc one and conrains me seeds IQf its own desuocdon .. Any IcoWluY'wlrti,eb limits in popu)aa.ol1, becomes 'tb.eI1eby less: numerous d:um 'ODe

1,3,,4

LIMIT.AT:IO:N OF I"'O,'PU'L.A,TI'O'N

which refuses to do $OI~1 and so the 61:5'1: '\ViU be sooner or later crowded out of existence by the s6con,d.And again, the. stationary population is avoiding the fUll bEast of nanrralcompetirion, and, followin.g ,3 universal biological.law', it wiD gradually deg,ener,at1e,. Ir is impossible to b.cUe"ve .. cbat a tdegcll,er.aan,g small population can 51U~ve ~nthe~otDg, run b~ ~'l s;tr'o,ngly eomperirive world, 0'1' that 11' ~ have rhe force toccmpel the rest ofrhe world to degenera:ce 'with it ..

The 'p~es,ent 5pou~aneous, decline j,n fe'rd1ity affects ~any of the most prosp'Cf'O'llS, countries, and it is a pbleno~tenon th.,ae was hardly foreseen even fifty years ,ago". Man has not ,any v'ery :strong procreative instincts; in tile Wlci~d ~t~re that did not nutter, since his vee; srrong sexual UlstU1CrI, sufficed. to maintain the race, bot

ow: p:reswt ec?no~y is so or.~d .tIlat there are great ,~di:ap's',agamst' large f~es", and [nmy cQln'pen__sanons for tho,se who, ale either intentionally or uninten-

tionally s'ter~~. ~ p,;u;,t; periods ofhlgh p.ro'sperl'tY!I' there was, often a. similar state ,of ,afi"ilis" but the development ?f easy method:S',~ofbirlth ... oon\~ol is a new factor ,of,g,[Clt Imp'~~ce~ which seems _l!O ~a:ve_ UP,Sicrt the balance hy :making It' :SJO vlery' easy [)O be ,cbildlessl or '[0 have such :a

~maU [alOOy' that the pO!pulaiaOn is not mai1nt,3J'm.ed.. I 'believe .it is, aisp'ut,ed bow important d~,e' 'various, 'COD'mb~tc)ry_ causes, ma:y be_~ h'u,t it _ is indisputable that: a consl~erabI: fraction of ~he population find it both easy and ecnvenient 00 contribute less; than daeiI share to the

ne~t ,~ene~ati~~" ,and. this fr,aaion is, sp'f:!c:i,al]y tbe lone' lellJ10ymg me lughest prosperity ~

It is convenient [)O have ,a:m,orc phrase fO describe this: 'I3,S

THE N'EX,T MILLION YE-ARS

state ofa.ffairs, in which p.ro~perity prod'~l(Z~J chilqt'~~slness, :3nd I shall characterize it hy saying th:it>tthe pIl~ ect of ,oWtl·inga motor-car is, a sufficient' 'bribe ICO slte~!~e most people, I do not apologize for calling it ~~m.ty., for though rhe term [soften used to nnply a physical incap,acity nlar is held in c:on:[elnp,'t'~ it is, bielngi~ll:~ speaking, immaterial whetherthe incapacity is forcci:! 0'[ voluntary, In,my phrase the motor-car is 'of course, -. metaphorical, as a symbol of the sort of level of Plo,lpetity: that tends to he associated with small fa-lnUres', 'eri childlessness; and it is being found tha:r as p:ro5pe~ti~t)t spreads, downwards in the social scale" so the famill~s tend to become srmallel!, there too. It w,o,uld he dim,cUlt to saY' whicll is cause, and which effect, fer children "QIe an economic disadv~ntag,e, 'So that their preseru:e lowers their parents' pro<spects:;and 011 the otherhand the ,e.-tH~ and ·com£o~rt of existing prosperity discourages the creation of children, T'o- see the c'ons,equClncfs of 'd1i,s state of:affairs, I shall look more closely artheway 'ch~ , have been going 111 dU8 country during the pa,st cenrllr~.

In S(Udyhlg the trend of OUl' population, if the sttlCdy. is, 'to he ,my use at ill~ it is, necessary to ndopr so.tne

d- d f I' C. d'-I d-I !:a" . '.' E-

stan _ -,ar_'_ 0_ va' ues :[or l~ ae nuterenrconsnruents "0. "

communiry .. 'There is, at present current in some q uar'~,~rs

o'!IIn ,P('''u-·~.,,'1:1i"'''rll·'I'I1l11 tren d '0' f'·' '0" pinion cw···.:hi .. icb is 'Q"1I1;ti?' ,d'''!'":a~r,""

~ ..... '1 .. <:III.Ut.a, . ili!I..IIL ,'. '., .. ' "~.' ,l!.l!. .' - - .' " iI.J _ . . "". ,w.!I.: '..... ~1!JI,' ... t),~.!.J

,ously unsound: it h\ '[he 'tYPiC 'eh~a:t condemns aU e~geFl[~ views, on principleypresumably because they conllict

- '- - - ..-

with a dead level of equality. It tries to prejudice t1-1e

case in advance by siea:dng thatthe eugenist rates the ri~h hlghe:rthan the po at" without any examination what;'"

Il6

LIMITATION Of P,O'l?ULA T'ION

ever t;)f,the very different things that he'reaDy does claim, It maytherefore be well forme to elaborate the point~

111 discussions, on social policy" in 'which. these criticismsare expressed, lip"!\s'el'Vice is paid roche doctrine-that aU menare of ,equal merit, but it is tOI he noticed that such statements are usually reserved for gene.r,alargument, and that those who make them pay the 1110!t. jealeus attenrion to the comparative merits of indivi-

duals" when it is a q uestion of makingan appoinrment to any important post. It is the mall who is believed 'to be the ablest who 1$ promoted, and. ,this brings 'to him someincrease in reward, which may be a higher salary, or perhaps some other mark of'civic re!(';ognirion,wlrich will be valued by the recipient'l,alld which would abo have been desired by his unsuccessfidrivals. There is certainly a great deal of injusrice in the world, in 'th:;t't there aremany people: whose real ability is never discovered" 'but it is hard to believe that promotions' a'IE:' moreofren Inadewrongly than rigll'tly. So it, is surely a justifiable claim that those seleceed for promotion are

rather more, likely 'to IlaVie superior qualities man those who" were not so selected, I~o!w '111a11, like every other animal, does tend to pass 011 his natural qualities 'to his 'o,:ffsl'ring; there' is no certainry about It, but there is a somewhat better chance that the sons of the promoted candidate will be abler than those lef his unsuccessfiil rivals, Since there will always be .need [or as nlallY ,able peopleas possible, the enccuragemenr of the promoted man to have children increasest ~\linc,e that we shall find ,thein in the nextgeneretiea .. ' The argument Inay be pushed furmersrill. There is, a good deal of evidence

137

T,H! NEXT MILLION YEAR,S

thar some men's ability ismore intimately incorporated in rheir :hc'redity 'chan it is for others, Thus there htov.c been cHleJl ofpre"'e'ntinent'· ability, risen fro.mche [Illks~ w:hose descendants have sunk hack ma generation or 'tw,o~ 'wheteJs there are families where g:enera:tion after generation goa on producing men of very good :!lbiliry ~ IC[eMly dlf! plobahility ,of producing :abl,e menis rather gr,carer in II fanlUy rl\ar hu shown rb!lt ie Icm do so ,over

several 8'enerat:i.oru;,. _.

The ugument that the, eugenist rates, the well-to .... dol bighly is, quite 'true if it is read iII these terms, :for'the well .. -eo-do - are rarher rnore like:I YUlan others '[0 possess ,the qualiry of ber,cdicary abilityrbrough h_aving shervm .it in scvlt:ra1[ generations, NOire also, tbat an ,opponent of 'iliis, vic'\W' does not reaJIy upset 'dlear:gumenr by mamraDting tb:u. [be wroD;gpeopJe are Ilways promoted, -~ e wanrs other rypes, to be promoted presumably because he admiees their qualiriesmore, but then he will SU[,e1, want those other 'qualities, to be perpemated thrcHllh heredity; i.t is not the eugenic side' of the ~gtunent ma,t be Wallts 'to u:ps,et~ but, the social side. A1lthese ma'tler,s:. b,od.1 'of ,Icm'evin,g' success and of berediry, depend, ,of course very modi on chance:" for 'very ofeen rhe sons of the successful are fnfe'r1!or' to, dlose of ,In 'UDSu,ccesstUl liv,ait but there :is no j ustifu:ation for Dle,gl,cain,g chanGes because mey are nor certainties, A.fterall the whole world cl.epellds v,ery nl'llth Ion chance", and iti:; the parI' of the wise speculator 'to recognise 'wllich chances, are lik,el.y ttl! make the odds, most in his £avcur',~ and he w:ill take these I,d:umces even :if me'y are: only slightly moee

fa-I. 'II .1J_:_

VCHJntue: tOI ntm,

LIUITA'TI'ON OF PO,PULATlON

If then I m'IY appear to he regarding the aetually suceessfal members of society as more 'valuable ,t ~n the Jess successful" it is, not because I do nee recognize: ,that there an~ a great many smpid nchpeople, or -rblt there are many of superior merit who have been missed, It is because I 'believe '[ba.t I sJlill rend '£·0 find rarher more ability among those, some of whose' ancestors have proved they -possc'ssed it, and in d.e"a]in:gwidl probabilities I want Ito have the chances in my favour as much as lean, even if the gain in the odds is 1110'[ very gIear~ In what follows~ then, I shall be implying rhis [rain ,of -[hought.:, it w,ould he roo tedious [01 have tOI repeat it all the time, There is Orne filId__lcr poinreo be made, The judgment 'b,y success is one between men competing a,gaBtS'E one anodl,cr., ,and so j:t ,can oioly be appUedwben 'du:y belongto rhe same community, ] t pro'vides, DO, guide whatevler to che respecdve merits of Slepuate peoples, wb,edu!f cbe comparison is made of the 'whole peoples, or olf individuals! drav;nl £['om eadl at some corresponding level,

Consider nowthe b1sI'OOI.ry of Brltrain since the' m-, dusrrial Revoluno,:o" The large increase of p,o',pulatio'D StafiE:ed. in a:bol'lIr 18oo~ and rbis, si,gnifies that ,the: ri,gour of' natural s!elecQlon began to he eased Iltth!3lC time. There' wasstill ofcoursea great dealof infint mortality :il'mo'ng all classes, but ie 'was prohably ,I good deal less ,among dlC well-to .... do" 'chotlgll even theirs would, be rega.rd!ed as qui're shocking by modern standards. MallY of poo~' led, lives ofoppressedsqualor, and no doubr oft:en lived, not very farfroim the: srarvation level, 'but tbey did Dot' :acrually 11mI'Ve and ;anyone w~bo' GOitdd ,survive childhood

:13,9

Tl~E, NEXT MILLlO:N Y'I!,AllS

had a nearly ,eq'tJ,al. chance o fhll11se'lfh,a,ving' .children, :110 matter froDlwha.,t rank he came.A:r1y difference thet.e was would still favour. the prosperous!, thollgh toa leiS

degree man. before the industrial revolution.. .

Tl-.lf siruarion had cllmged ridlcally hefore the: end.or me nineeeenrh ceillt:ury," 011 account of a varie'ty' _ gf causes" of which the' comparative importance is sldII j.n dispute., One was 'me greater insistence of_public opiD~en on sexual mcraliry.and another, prohably the most iQlporrant of all, was the growth ofthe practice of hirthcontrol. It might more douhtfUlly also he argu,ed t11~lt the spread of cOlntort and the rise ofIivin~ standards.has provided pleasures [0 rival those connected with sex" b.llt this is nor very convincing, since it is certain that in o'tb€~_ countries and at other periods ofhistorythe gro_ of luxury has had the opposite elfect. .. But whatever die causes, it is Indispurable ma:r the' more PI'ospcrolls 'me.'I,-~, hers of the community are not producing their share I@f the uextgeneration so that selection is, nowoper,atmB against theprosperous, ,As an example, if the list_ 01 eandidares is examined, who are' ,applying tor my QlfD:ee of high or even mediocre imporemce, it will be fO:1JlilQ that something Iikenine-tenths of them have eirher ~no children, or one, or two, Of course, if everyone hale! e:xllcdy' two children, Rlldbo,th these children :m~~ri~d and had exactly two more, 'the population would b£: ex~u:dy steady? but as thn1igs'~le'~, it: isa fair guess that, in each 'dility years ofage:neration, this pa,[~ of om popul'ation is reducing itself to something between a hmlf_ md tw·o-dllrds. Thb signifies mac within a century~, tllere will at most be quarter :3,$, m,any people of thistypl' las

140

LIM,]T A'T] ON OP'P 0 P 'UL.ATI ON

there ar,e now, There will of course be some compensadon by the rise from. other: .levels" but:" as I have pointed out, to fotmd our hopes, on them is to 'tak'e a worse inste:ad of a better chance, The whole dUll.g is acatastrophe which it is now almestroo late to prevent.Jf what ,I have called the bribe of ,the motor-car is what is needed t-o, persuade the world ro limit its population, then it .is certain that the: ,first countries to accept the bribe are

.. .. ld

comrmtting suicn e,

This catastrophe must be a principal factor in the'immediate tl1t1.l.re of ourccuntrv, and as snell it concems us more than . any thing in, the distant fiJtur.e, but in this, essay I am concernedwirh the distant fu.tUIe~ and not vvidi n.le immediate 'troubles, ofour oowlrry", so here it only plays the pare of anexample of whathappens when. a COtUlt:.ry succeeds ina;v()idingthe Malthusian threat of over-popnlation,

The tendency of civilized life to sterilize its :al1Ies.t citizens, is by no means confined to du~ COtUl't'ty" but is the experience of nearly an countries which enjoy even .3 passable degree of prosperity. It is perhaps nl0:rcln-atked now than. ever' before, 'but it has, certainly occurred Sl.t: other periods cfhisrory, For example, .the earlier RQm~n. emperors,wer,e conrinually in difficulty because of 'the' extinction of the senarorial families, which were the

1 ·h· _]'" · b'l" 'll d h 1· 1

crass W05,(: administrativea :L1.ty na ... seen so .arge!y

resp:tJnsihlc; for' the creation of me Ro,man. Empire, ',It: would seem that~, 'men as now, it was just those whose typewas most needed who 'were the first ro limit thelr fanillie.s .. Then as now ~ the ,prosperity induced byclvili-,

141

THE NEXT M[L.LmO'N YE,ARS,

zarion gave not merely a :secllriry of life that· ammlled the effects ofnatura15clection~ but it actually went in dle opposite direcdon, in rhat the less vlalua'ble' pmsofd:ue community becamethe most !effilcient in survival.

An.o,dter ,examp'le of the consequences .of faJmily limitBrno·n may be: cited, but I do 5.0 tUuyv'erytell'f3.'tiv;My because I have: not been able' to! gather :ftlJl informatien aheut .ir. Ofthe Polynesians Inmy lived. in small" ne:a~ly isol::;l't!cd, communities 0:0 islands, and. these succeeded in developing a 'manner of Hfe whi,ch seemseo have av·oide!d me haI,der' features of ever-population, It was done by the: sanction of various rituals, and by social habits not all ofwhic:h we mould commend, but that is' 110 matter, 011. clu:ir first being discovered they could be heLd up '[,0 rb,eworld 35 113ving' solved tbe problem 'DC howto live an idylli.c life 'of An:aldian simplicity~ B"q.:t since then it has 'bec'D found that Ax'cadja; cannot endere in :a cold world, The Polynesians an: not iII the lea~s,t inferior to other r',~H:CS ill. ability or intelligence, bU'~ dley do I1.O'fs~enl. capable of competing: agaiusr them in suniv,al.. 'Thus ill Hawaii, after t11,e shorr span of a eentury'" tb,ey are already 'v'cry 'mud], ~n. a otinoriqr compaled. 'withthe: newly immigrant Chinese andJapmese~ C'ontraJs,t thisl 'with thecolomzation of A.Erica., where the effec:'t has u.1·sually beena rapid increase in the local pop:ulado'D,.flUltbermOl'f·I, rile Polynesians themselves £uIDiSh lone: striking leKampl,c ItOI the contrary ~ When the Maoris came: 10 New' Zealand, they GoulJd ,expand into aD aln-l0it unlimited area" and there was no need to limit popula .. tiOI}; and 'me: Maoris ba:v,e most cetra'illly not g,one dIe way of the' ome:r Polynesians. 'Tl_lIQu,gh ins.uffidJ!n't

I4Z

LlM,ITATION OlfP,IQ,fUL,ATEO',N knowledge I can only eire thisexample of the Poly-, nesians ·v.ery tentativel y ~ bur it does seem toshow thar a .race adapted to limiting irs population Calmar C!ODl:p,f;tJe a,ganl,s.r others which h.1 venot been. similarIy ada.pted.,

Those who 3I"f" most anxious, about 'the MaJ:thnsian thr,eat argue that' 'the decrease of population dlfou,gh prosperity is the solution of the populatioll p:roblem .. They are: unconscious of the degen:eratloD of the race implied 'by this ,cODJdl.tioD, or perhaps they at,e' willing to :i1ocept it as th,c Iesser of rwo evils .. TheY' hopetb31i 'we can ,gnlduilly make prosperity world wide, so rhat as cOWltlydter' country experiences :it" eachofthemia turn win begin to diminish innumbers, and £nally 'we can all be eomforrable together in lall eifo,rtic5s wor]d~ lit

., . d ,', ~.~~11 •

1S,IOQDluelVle- as an automanc pmD.Icess prOOeBS" eccurnng

nI'nu:ally and 5pontmoo,usly .md involwt,g no Ic,om .... · pulsicn aD'yYlber-e,., I shall come later to d11C' lo~g:-'term instability wlnch will prevent sucb happenings" 'but there is also an everwhelming shore-term reason to prevent j,It.. There iss;iInply no tin~efbI ie to come about, because everything happens in me wr,on,g order, Wha.r is, required is rhe simultaaeons esiseeaee IOf' hi:gh P'IOSpericy" social conditions in which the economic disadvantages of'parenrhocd are evident to ne;arly all classes, 3JlQS(Une knowledge of the medl0ds of binhcontrol, IOwy under such conditions will the potential pat,ent 'w!eigh the riv,a] pleasures '[.0 b,e clerivcd :fro!m a motor-car or another ,child. Sucb condirions exisr in SQI:me: ,of ,the more p:ro,splcrous, countries, and atreilC£me more prosperous members of:them, which may he 'qui"re a coasiderable fracdon. In others, even among those

143

TH,)! NEXT MIL,LIQ,NYEARS possessing a high degre'e of civilization, the 'fr,motion affected is v'e.ry small, and for the' remainder there is R· such inducement to a. car,eflll balaJlcing of the advantage~.

Take the case ofIndia, Ofsome hV1e hundred mHHGn it' is doubtful if even one per cent are at present in th appropriate conditions ofprcsperiry; and it is not one per 1Of:1:t but at least sixty per 'cent that is 'needed. For ib ' rest the' population is increasing at a terxifyingra;te., As to. the pr,ospects of higher prosperity" the risks of 1@:~,3J famines are already mitigated by good inter-comnnmications all over' the country. and not very much n"lqre. 1~"IJl 'be hoped from this. Methods of agriculture can no

do- u b- r- 'be eimp rove d: in m 'a'ny' w ays bu II" ie 'W""Q' ',P1ld· cer--'I""a;l,",tg

·'··'-,L ' __ --~ __ :.__" .. "-" ... .' "', ,':' "_"_' __ .': , .. _-_''''.1. _ :'ILU,_,- -. _. ~- __ ~~').:

take a long time merely to teach these 'to such an enormons number of people .. And all the time rhe torrent at procrearion continues itself inevitably decreasin gt4e:, standards of life. There is, so to speak, simply no time-to make the people realize what ,f! pleasant bribe ametes ... car is, nor fDf' the matter of that is it likely that lenollgb motor-cars could. ever beoffered, There are many o,ther parts of 'me world where the same citing is happeniIi:§'~ The colonizarions, mainly by the white races, have produced. a securiry oflife beforcunkJ10Wll, with the inlln,~, diare consequence of large increases of population, and. these increases, have automarically lowered the standard of life back 'towards 'what it had been previously. The firs,t eondition needed for spontaneol1s' limitation i'rs,clf destroys the chances, of establishing the other conditions'

The'le. is still one point to be considered, I have. 'been arguing that there is: no chance of sponraneous limitation

. b- b .. .~L 1-' d-I" •

cQmmg a ~o'Ut!lle,eaus:e at takes too :.ong~ ana yeC[ ir .1s;

I 44.

LlM1TA,TION or POIPULAT,I'ON

even now being actually experienced in some countries. This fact might seem to demolish my argument, hut I

do '~'1' rl1"' 'ro: rink 'd- ncre 'I~IZ!."'::. """'Y' dl"ffi-"l~r'u1' 'nt .. in m ieetia .. c"g ..... the p' oinr,

~' .. I~_VII.;. _'",_] .. K,I." . .b",",",.O! ~.J.J..' '_::l" '~-"~J~ u..t~. "~'.J,;. _I·_~ ~"_"_':""'.

The present era bas been unique in mar it has combined the wonders of the scientific: revolution with the sudden expansion of the white races, into va~t almost uninhabited regions. The consequence has been that for two or three gel'lerations, the Malth usian threat did .r.eally disappear. In spite of the' secureconditions, man could not breed fast: enough to catcl up with the extending agriculture, and so the other conditions for spon:ta11(10US, limitation could come into play" befo.n~ the firs'c one, the condition of security, 'had killed the chance of them, It'would S,ee111 unlikely rhat similar conditions can arise again in world history J so that ill estimating future possi ... bilities, there is little P[,los'pect that the Malthusian threat will again be overcome spontaneously in this, way ~

In considering the possibility of the spontaneous limitation 'of populations, I have been regarding the subject in the manner prevalent; as arising from condirions like those we are experiencing here and now. But it must 110t be overlooked rhartbere have been many epochs in the pa.st~d perhaps there are cases inthe present tOQ........._whcr.(! children were not' wanted, and where a more direct' solution was fOLlnd through infanticide. It was usually fenut1.e infanricide rhar was pra.otised; this, Was presumably because the male was, more valuable economically as, a soldier or workman, but it was also more efiectiv,c in limiting the increase ,in later geQerarions. Infanticide is repugnant' to all our present systems of thought, and it is hard for us to conceive m.e

~ J4S

THB .NEXT MILLI'Q,N YEAR.S

state of mind of'those who practise Ie, land 501 to esrimat how i'e actually works, out, It would se--Dl rather likely that it would operate' on a lower social level dian do our ,pre-sen t limitation" becanse rbe decision '[01 desttoly new-born child must involve a Sir e emotional ais'· I so mat it is not 11k: Jy to be undertaken 1'- ~:cept in extr ~ __ - conditions. If will nor' be the hop , of -, motor-carvbu the pangs, of hunger that will bring j,'t' about, This,fQrm oflimita:ti,o.n 'will bardly come into play ,ill conditions 10£ prosperiry, and SID it cannot be considered any help in maintaining pros,pericy~

] have already suggested that th voluntary limitation ofpopulations is an unsrable process, whereas any' poole 55 dlat is to come about spont3lJl.'eousl,y has simply SID't to 'b a 5'ta:bl,e process, Here I we thr term ,stabilit:11 in j, I eeehnicsl sense I which hardly differs fr,om the popular

,;, 1· '. littl . S b ill' ., 'hl-

sense t~lOUg llt 15 a .• ~,- e more pre IS·., : tIl .. I~'ty rou.g .' y

• nifi" . 1!.. if-' - rl- der consi d .

SII,g;1 - es, tnil,[., .. ' . ae syste'm un r C'Oc.1Sl era,uon ge~l,

a -little' above its averag,e level, 'by clute very fact a fo:rce~'o'mes into -r}' Y 'to ,pull ir back, while if it falls, below a force is evoked to raise it again .. In this sense 'the VOIIWltary limaarion of poput uio __ s is ,videncly an UD:-' smbl, I ',[O'Ces-5, but' the matter is so important that ie mAy be well [0 illustrate it by an example, Something lof me kind is heing alr·ea.dy ex,perienced ill parts 'of Fran!cc,

h eh ulation j ... '.

w - ere .-. e p.ea:san't pop,~ II anon I,S not mam:[:~llnln,g ]·ts

numbers, but I de not want to 'be tied to demographic details vihich are 110't very accurarery known O'I" under-, stood, and the: argument isquite str,ong enough for iE '[0 be' plat in more: general terms.

I41t5

LIMITAT'ION O'F PIOP'ULA:TION

The peasants of province A are' not reproducing rhemselves, with the result that the villages are only partly Inhabited ~della;t part of the laud. has gOlle out lof cultivation .. Province H, on [he other h:lnd has an excess of -opula:rio,nl and tit lmd~hun,ger ofrh- B,~s will drive them into taking I' 'c r the desert d houses, and .. , tOI culrivating rh ')lgIeccoo land. even rhough it will have been [he .PO'O'[ICSt mind thar had gone DU,t of culrivarion, Some departments of France have in fact already been p;u:tly re-peopled in this w.ay from Italy. Now if the immigrant B's retain their own CL'LS'tom" h y will continue to. Increase ill 'umbers in their new settlements, and in a few ge:n rati ns the province A will be' fully populated" bur now chieOy 'by B's, Bur itmay 'be tba:t ill tbeir new sarroundings the B,"s will feel Ithe'inBu ces

] ich I· ·dl th A'I . deere .. L_ th . ·"11··

W ncr 'e _ 'I~ IIC -' to c crease, so rnar tney r ,0 wi seart

to decI,ease, and again villages van he deserted and 1 ' d will go' out of culrivation, If this, haprp ns there will be ,: fresh influx of B's, unless perhapsthe province has by now alsOi got itself into a state where its (J\VJ1 population is decreasing .. In ,tb~.: case there will he a new imrnigration frol'm a p,ro,vinc· C which has, an excess popula -l,on., If the C' 51 go the arne _ ay afier immigration ~th DI~'.s will come in, 3l1d s the recess wiD go, 101)" wid, a SDC,cession ,of immigrations each ofwhich D'L1!y later fade out by experiencing the same decreas '~H, It ar some stag',e one set of immigrants 'will eomein who declin to decrease, and then the province A will experience overpopulation, Thus tll", state of under .... population in til end inevirably cures itself. In at ditTer-enr: sense SOl do, th 'state: of over-population i~ :fo,r '[he over-population 'will' in-

1,417

'THB NEXT MILLION YE,AllS

cvi.tably reduce itself to a condition of exactly fltll p0:fn~"'" lanon,. either by emigration, or hy-the starvation of ' the surplus, The 'only condition un derwhich the 'iDa,t state of A w,ould not be one of inn population would; be 'illm.t there should, be no single race on the whole f~u::€ of the earrh thatwa:s. not stationary or decreasing; if there was a single one that 'resisted the bribe of the motor-car, that race would people the earth, 311d. 'this itwoulcl',Qa whether its, morive was high principle, or ,so,n~u~'cl'e:e'd;, or ,S.illlply pure stupidity. If is ,in this sense thar I say that the avoidance, ofthe Malthusian threat of over-population, is bound 'to be ,an unstable process,.

I halve already shown theshorr-term difficulties whi~, seem to make it sure mat 'no spolltanoous process will :avo,id ,mem.ena;ce of over-population, Is it possible rharthe statesmen. of all countries, perceiving rhese dang'ers, should combine together to make and _ enfor~Ge a world-wide policy of limitation] It would have ·to be 'world ... wide" because if any nation were: l'eca14 .... trant, its populationwculd increase rela:tively to' the rest, SOl :tba:t sooner crIarer it would dominate the others .. Th~d thc'pro's'pec'ts of such a wor ld-wide policy a,r,enet go.cd, is wimessed by the total failure hithertoacbieved In, thle far easier problem of military disarmament, .How. w'ould the' nations settle [he respeetive numbersadmissible fO'f'd},en popwadolls? The only principle that would have a chance. of acceptance-would be to 'base th,e numbers on existing populations, ,2Llld ehen the ques,tiQu arises why one particular set of proportions betweendie various countriesshould be frozen constant for' ;1] timt'~ :Smcerhe aim of the policy is to retain world-wide pr~s~

148

,LIMJTA,TION OF POPULA'TION

penry, eV1ery single coun,dy w'onld, he f;;ced 'with the problem of taking care ofiitS own limitation, and" as bas been. seen, ,this would not come about spontaneously .. Even ira .g:ovenu.nenr could devise an: effecdve method, it would be: an odious cask for the: rulerstohaveto enfor'c~ ir, and there can he no doubt they would often evade doing so, With the best ofgoodwiU~ it would 'be' hard EO en£O:Ice the Hn1itation because ,of the grad.llaJn-eS& of the increase, for the rulers cO'wd always, excuse themselves b.y the argument that' tbe slight illegalincre'ase of dds, year was accidenral and would next -year. be cornpensated by a corresponding decrease, so tha:t:action might be postponed, and sometimes it 'would be post .... , poned too long.

1£ _ is, c]earfr,om an this; chat me world pclicy would need to' 'be supported by internarional sancrions, mel me only ultimate sanction must be' war,", Present methods of warfare' would nor benearly murdercusenough ro lie .... duee populations seriously, and even so they would take a uearly 'equal toll. of victims from me - unoifellciillg nations .. Soaf~er the 'war the: question would arise ,at how to reduce the excess popularion of theoffendmg narion, It is not possible to be humane U1 this bu'c the most lmmane merhod 'would seem to be infanricide together wi.dl the sterilization of afractioll of the adult population, Such srerilizaticn couldnew 'be done without tbe brutalmetltods practised in the past, 'btn itwould cex[ahuy be vehemently resisted, .1 have dwelt on these d.etail s,~,perhaps: ;a:c unneces:sary lellgID!lnot because I believe 'they will ever hap'.lJ·en, but in order to, show 'that this kind o.f,rnfOI"Oemlent', which is, the only obvious one,

149

'THE NE,X'T M,I,L,LI'ION YE·~,-R:S

would ,lead ~D' a lcandidan of s'trifel,jealousymd ,disOf,def, whidJ is precis;ely the Icondiaon thar. it was desi:gned ro avoid .. The fundamentAl mstability· of popula:rion nUDl-' bers cannct be Checked by man-made ·la.~sJ' and even :if' it 'were succes,sfUlly done £0'1" a. few yea:rs there is no chance of the: system working century after c·entury' ..

Even worse' difficubies~ however, would arise than those I have so far contemplated. I have been31ssum.in;~ that ehe polic-Y' oflin'lb:a.t1on was accepted 'by the m.~JOIiey on broad rarionalgrounds .•. hue it is 'q uite certain iliac in a very shore time it would enconarer fanarical o,pp~ sidon .. EV·eD. though the procreative instinct hasnet the· violence 'of the sexual instinct". 'Y'e:[ it is, an emotion 'p'o!Ssessed 'b'y'mmy' people', and :15, su,ch iE win bile pard-· cnllu:Iy liable to gel incorporaeedin creeds, There are alread,y creeds that mamtain the wlrong:fumess; 'Of bir'flleontrol, ,though there: is, a't presc:O't no very .s,ttong emotion associated wim 'them .. But if there 'were '[0 be any el1fo[ce:numt' of birrh-conrrol by auehoriry, it is cere. t11a.t: ,many new creeds would spring 'up wruchwo,wd reg3l'd thepractice as sinfUl, and the tenet would. be hlfld wid1. an endmsiasm nor ro be OVUICOllle 'b'y the effortsl la_.f rational l?1en.uuion~ There a:[c~many' creeds, which we hold, tOI 'b,e' unwise, wWlch we can adnlitand.llieave .dOD'e:, 'because; dleireft\'eccs are mainly to, ,d3:magetheirhc]jev'e!'s~ This could not be one of dlfm~ sincethe believle:nwould aum:ma:tically gain anundue share of the next gmer,il~ riC'D" Persecution would be the only recouoeagaiese sum a creed, and the massacre ofrhe innocents 0;[ 'the: bleed of the martyrs would. wa'rer rhe seed of the: faith~ It is not of course true, :I,S is sometimes mainrsined 'by

ISD

.LIMIT.AT.IION IOI.P !?',OPULAT':ION

[Idig.iou:s devorees, ·ma:rpersccodon ,alwa.ys firl1s to Igx-· bn,guisb a faith .......... faf example the An.m. heresy w3!l,much. persecuted b1y the ortbod.ox chur'cb'l' and there are no Ariaru, nO"r~hD[ there: is, he. doubr. 'that persecution is a grcfll:[ encourager, and it is fairly sure thatnot aJI such creeds would be extinguished. 011ce agairl the efi\or'~ [0 produce comfortable prosperity would call for a brutal-, ir:ythat isjust the kind o.fd1ing ir is, trying to avoid,

It isnot only the creation of creeds mat maycome intoplay to _prev,ent rhe artificial limirarion of popu]a: ... tions; 'in dl'(!' very long run ;3 deeper cause will arise to p[1ev·ent· ir, Through natural selection animals a!cq wre herirahle qualities 'which :6r mc.m fOI survive, but nature works in a. 'V'CI11 ond,dy W:JlY '[0 achieve itsends, accepting any .meiho,d no matter how indirect j·t may ,appear [0 be, se ] Ol1 ,g' as, it is eJfecbvc in producingdle result .. Man has: strong sexual instincrs, and. 5,tfong' plu,enw instincts, bUE the procreative. instinct, which woul d. make hi m feel the direct want of children, is much weaker. This did not marrer so long as 'me sexual ID_J,rinC'C would ensure the birth of children, but 110W' i'~ is, IlO lang,er doing so .. N,atJlJre'!s wlddy method has been ,defeatied by the il1~

:gelud:ty of man, There \\riU he a rev,enge. .

T)lOUgh the procreative instinct is ,colnpu,ativeiy ·w,eak." i.t is p:raent in. manypeople, and i:c is these peolple wlt.o will have larger fa:milieschau the rest, :By me ve~ry fa,ctldJ.e:y will hand ,on the instinct to a grea.ter :&alaion of'the population in me: next 8'ener~tioD.- The process of building a. new instincr m'[IO the: species will certainly be a slower one than the operation of an'y creed, bur Ir has a permanence possessed by no creed, That an instinct: is I,

15'1

THE ,NEXT MILLION YEA:R.S

very much more ,powerful thingthan any creed m.ary'b ' seen from the sexual inseincn there are many ,eree&s which place the: greatest importance on the virtue 'of chastity; but their prohibitions are seldom ,effective against 'the instinct. There is, no need for the procreative instinct to become even remotely as ,strong as the sexusl for ir to tlefeat any OppOSD'lg creed that fa.vours limitation of populations; and, so to perpetuate the overpopulation . of 'the world. Once this :nag,e is r,eachei. nature 'will have. taken its revenge, and there will ·he linle tendency for the instinct to increase further., It is verymuch of a ,guess how long such a change willtake~ bue it should be' far less, than themillion years, oftl1e lchatlg;.e" of a species; some analogous considerariens which I shalt develop in the' next [chapter suggest it might be something like ten thousand years. After ill., for Oll€ 'thing, no v,ery great increase is needed in. an alreadyexisting instinct, . and for another the effect ,(Dn population from it is so very direct,

To conclude the chapter I return 'to 'the narrO'w~t question of the tendency of civilization to eliminate its ablest people, This has happened irl the past, and is, certainly happening now, and ifit is always, to happen, JI signifies a rec~,r[ent degener:U:ioll of all civilizations, on1~ ro be renewed by the incursion ofbarbarians who ha:v:~ not suffe[,e~ similarly, If any civilized country cou14 overcome this eifect, so that it alone retained both 'Its abilityand its civilization, it would certainly become dle leading nation of the: world, Man is a wildanimal, and cannot accomplish this by using the: methods of,tbe

1;52,

.LIMITA.'TION OF POPUL,ATI'O'N

animal breeder, but, m,ay he not he able to devise some .. thing that would go beyond the' long .... drawn .... out automarie p:roces.s,es of Natural, Selection] ,I tllink he: Call. A cruder vand simpler method must be used than the animal breeder's .. Somerhingmiglnbe accomplished on

th 10 . f·· hat i .. 11 d uU' . .' . - 1 .- in· th

' e ".tne 0: 'w rat u ca __ e,_, · .. uconsctous Se ection' in the

O[rlg1n of Species ..

Unconscious Selection s.ignifies that the farmet'f who hasno inrention 'whatever' of improving; his herd, will naturally select .his best and not his WOIst animals '[0 'breed fron1, and in consequence he will find. that in fac't he does improve the herd.' As I have pointed out, we are all the time assessing the rival merits of individuals. for promotion; they are each chosen .foI' some: special pur ... pose.~[ but like the' unconscious, sel eceion of the farmer,

_'L ·h·· d ... k .... 'L j b -

Ulle enoree ·_.:o:es mar ..... 'we ptomotea person as ~ei'ng

superior to the average~ Any country that could devise a. method whelicby the promoted were strongly encour ... aged. to have mere children than the rest, would find itself B,QaU excelling in the world, ,It would only be ;8. I10Ugh and ready method" with Many defects; for' ex-, ample, from 'we point of view of heredity women are as important as men, hut it would not so often be leas,y tc 'take their qualities into account, Furthermore thee: method would be extremely subject 'to fashi.ans~m whicb it would resemble the animal breeder's methodfor at 011e time gre.atest value would be: giv.en to the arta, at another to military skill, and at another to administra ... rive ability _aIld. so 011., However, ability is not usually a. ve:ry s~eciali2ed quality, and the effect, would he 'to pre-, serve hi,g;h ability in general"md thereby '[0 increase it~

1$',3

THE .NEXT MILLION' YEAR,S

since the abler people: would be con,tr.ibuting marie" instead of less, than their share to the next gen,eration.

A nationmight consciously adopt such a. policY'1 o,r:~it might be that an economic policy adopted for qu.it, other reasons should have this nnintended result. Whatever way it came about. ifit could last for even a few gellerations, the effect would begin '[0 show .. But humanity is capricious and :subject [0 thepassions ofthe im.m,ediate present, and it is hardly likely ,tha,t: ,3,l1YCOtmtI'Y:i whether democracy or aurocracyvwould follow such a policy long enough. for it 'to really tell. The best hope £or it to" endure would he that it should become attached to, a creed, and it would not matter v-:ery much whether the creed was reasonable or unreasonable, provided ,that jt producedthe effect. Either ancestor .... worship, or a belief inthe sinfiilness ofbirth ... control, would at least place the' promoted on an eq ualiry with the unpromored, ~d. with their superior ability this would. give them ,the advantage. But since the matter concerns me more intel:'" Iigent, ,a, reasonable creed would, have a better app,e.,t than a mere superstition, Such a creed might be one which inculcated in those who, were promoted the d.uty, of having more children man their fellows, as an acr benefiting the human race, The prosp,ect of such ,2 creed arising does not seem very hopeful, bur if by ilS, means any .country can even partly solve 'me problem, it will lead theworld, and it will he doing sothrotl.tr-h

, It]

tl' h d· f' "u .' ·S· '1 .. ,,'

ae metr o~,o. nconscious e ecnon .

154

IX

THE PURS UIT ,OF Ii:,APPINESS

T~a!r~S:e~f:si:!~~at~; ~::~l~: ~o;::

chief aim ofmankind that it seemed to mer-it discussion .. , Happiness has been the subjece of a great deal of magnificent literature, but it has abo been the subject of more trite aphorisms and .of more bad philo.s,ophy than almost any other in the world. In venturing eo discuss ie I am acutely conscious, ~ha't' I shall probably be j oining the ranks of the bad philo"sal~hers, but it has seemed to me that since l1aEpin~s,s is of such principal importance to man, I could hardly be justified in evading the subject~ M)' ~ain theme is 'to be the p.urJuit ofh.appiIles,s", and this is di~ereut from happin'ess itself A ,gl'e'ac part ofhuman conduct is dictated by_ the motive, "'I am. going to do so and S?, because I. think it will make, me happier," though the prescription is, all too often faulty. Howevee ma't may be, the result, is some course of action, and this will af.fe,er 'the external world, so that it becomes relev,m'lt 'co history. It is this, thaJt j ostifies its, considerarion here,

Before coming to' this side of the question however, it will be we]] to beginbyconsidering happiness its,el£ Much happiness cemesqulte unsought, and in examin~g~ .their memories .. for the chief ·happy or 1.11lh.appy lJ1lcd.enrs of their life" most 'people will find mat 'me

ISS

THE NEX1'MIL'Ll0N YBAR.S.

really important ones were concem,cd, Ulir:h eD~~ - J Intimate matters of a personal kind, which l1ad lied relation to the conditions of the external world. S'tl'lZih occasions of l1appitless or unhappiness will presWIlably

,always be ,among me most important things in life. and sillce-theyare independent of the outer world 'mey will continue much the SillIle in the futDr,e as .in the past. There is undoubtedly a ,grea't difference among indivi duals, in thar some 'a[le naturally cheerfiiland ,od)er naturally melancholyvand a's these are inherent ckar~ acterisrics there' is, nothing to be done about them, 1tHl'C"i is: relevant 'to th,e present inquiry to ask which ty'p'er,h,as the 'gre,arer' survival value. To put the matter in lts crudest form, is a narurally cheerfal person likely to ,bt.v, , fl, larger' fa.nlilythan a melancholy one, for if so, th~n there would be :1; prospect of a slow increase of cheerfulness throughout the human race'. I canner answerthis question ,at all, but [ can see' no reason to believe that cheerfulness should triumph, rather than melancholy~ There: is also the very greatest diff"e'Imwe a:r.nottg" in ... dividuals in the pitch oftheir emotions, in dut't some ,arc alterna:tely intensely happy or miserable, \vhile:c:c),ers 'take both emotions much more placidly .. Here againth question arises whether' there' is survival value: in mteft's emotions, and again it is not easy 'to answer, thol1gh i may be noted that such emotions tend to go wiih an instabiliry ofcharaorer which may ,often lead to Eorn,':~,

b d i d' -- t · _L 'm' . -- - .ro~VI·''';AI.'l' o f l"'.t:.e'- and rh~1il _ aa Ju~:gmen ~'S III me '0, er acn mes ..... ,1~1; ,__, Ie ¥~

bad judgmen.ts can hardly help in survival,

Ainon-g the inherent tendencies of people: toward happiness or unhappiness, there is one cha:ra,cte,ris:rie':., an IS6

THE, PURSUIT' OF HA'PP'INE,S:S

a very sinisrer one, which cannot 'be overlooked. In any boys" school where discipline gets at all slack if: is practically universal fur there to he bullying,. This, means that there are ~y ofmanlcind who positively enjoy making: their fellows miserable; it is, by no means a m~joricy. but it is certainly not a negHgible'mlllority. It is no use ~gtJ.in,g that this is only a boyish failing and dll't in later life dlc bully will become a virtuous: citizen. Conditions in this cotmtry give little scope for dlC' exercise ofbrurality by adults- but 'Ellis has nor alway.s been so, an d it is not so ill mallY parts of the world even now: it is the' strong ann of the law, and. not achange ill hi! nature, that has: restrained the bully .. It is not e,asy to see anything that will tend to eliminate him:. because his selfishness is a positive l1eIp to his survivalin all condirions but those of the highest and most stable civilisation, and even these conditions only check the expression of his propensiries withollt destroying thenl. In thinking of the futuee happiness of mankind, it is a s-obering though.t that '[here will be quite a, perceptible fraction ofbumanity th at definitely gets s:atisfacriol1~1 and so presumably

happiness, from making its fellows unha.ppy. -

Among the marie external conditions ofhl1mm .lite a great deal o_f misery is directly due to physical pam,. and ifthese 5~tferit1gs, can be rC1110ved either by cure or by means _~f harmless opiates, it will clearly increase the sum ofhuman happiness. Medical science has alr,eady accomplished much in jhis direction, MId it holds promise of a g.te,a.t deal more, so that in this obvious: .sens:e._man may confidently expect to be ha.ppier in the fu,ture.. But there is another side of physical

151

TH.E NEX.T .MILLION Y'EARS .suffering that it is not so easy to judge about, -: ,th'at is, hunger. If population pressur~ is to, be main fea.ture of human history; there will us,ttafiy bm marginal fraction of humanity living 'On ~e 'vet:ge, starvation, which cannot be reckoned as a happy sraE However, it is· hard to be: :SUl'C. even ,a.bout this, fg·(· th starvation is not usually continuous, hut comes, · periodic-ally recurring fa~es, and there is ,r?om_.f' h-ap"piness in. the intervals. To d:Qse of us who,.,ha~' never experienced real hunger this m~y s~e~ unl,lke'Iy but it is reported by those who know the Bskimos ~. f that they are the most cheerful peop!e. an earth, and.:tli'~ though they are certainly the race bvmg most connacally on the verge' of starvation,

In so far as happiness is regarded as 'an obje'ct of ~ursu.it,tllcrre is the implication rhae ie is at least pardy w+tltin thecontrol of the pursuer. Such happiness is a .lits: deep emotion than those I have bee? considering, an its antithesis can hardly be described _ as _ melanth,o]y or misery, but rather as discontent, Much discontent arise: from noble motives, but it has regretfully to beadm~tted rhat the motive lying behind the widest _ I,ange . of a~ content is mere envy I that most unamiable of hu~~ characteristics .. But whatever the 'motive, it cer~aJrily produces gre:.u: unhappiness, _ ,~d it is ~le' k~d that stimulates the s,ufferer intoseeking a cure .. Man is ~ very poor prescriber f(u' his own troubles" and he usually $~es l~is g~ievance" 'whether real or imaginary, as the ,o,rIly thing in the' world ,that~ stands ~et\Ve'en him and '~ Ref; manenrstate 0.£ p,erfecc bliss .. Of course as soon as, he.h .

I;SS

TH.B PUR.SUIT' Q'F HAPPINESS succeeded in removing the grievance, he at once finds another, and this again becomes the most important dung ,m the' world, with eternal happiness once .3ga~~ just round the corner. The target of the pocsuic will

always evade the pursuer" _

It is, not recognized 'bytnost people that happiness does not 'come from a state, but from a change of ,s,tate. That it: is so is illustrated by the total failure of every writer to descrihe a sa.tisfactory paradise, whether in heaven Qr on earth The tedium of eternity has almost become a. joke, and the' descriptions o( 'the ,earthly utopias are no better. Most .of them fail to re~o~nize rhat the human mind cannot hold .any emotion for long at an even intensity, but itha'c it always soon d,egener.ate,s~ inca something much more tepid. A few authors, of course have recognized this, Thus Samuel Butler describes dlc eririeism ,of the' Christian h,ea:vetl bY' an Erewhonian, who points out how much better it would be if one always thought that one s 'wishes were going to be 'thwarted, 311d then at the last moment they 'were fu1filled,. Then '[here is the (almost certainly mythical) AnlCE'ican preacher, w bo told his cOrngreg~tiol1 that heaven would nee consist in the playing of harps, but would, like earth, be a, centre of busy activity; we can be faidy sure that no "bears" would have' been allowed on the - celestial stock exchange, but the preacher did. recognize that it is a change of state, and not a state,

that makes for happiness, _

But it is not simply a change of state that makes fo,r happiness; there must be somethingunexpected about ir, Buder's Erewhonian would very soon have g'iOt burled

15,9

TH~B: NEXT MIL,LIO,N YEARS by Imo'\Ving tha.t he was certain not 'to be ,f,eally· ,d · ,Ippoinr:cd .. Agai:n~ in some prlofessio:ns thereis an aut marie annual increase of'sslary, 'but 'this change is ,apJt c be ,men!mlly disccunred long in advance; conrrut ic ~with the real joy at receiving aD unexpected promotien .. great proportion of mankind el1joy g~mbling . .If ~ - i cenditions are bad, this is easily understandable, becaus the remote chance of betterment is, worth taking,; lUlt 'Verym:1t'llj7' people in secure ,and prospereus c"olnd:itimns also find. it almostnecessary to g.aDlble~ andrhis is"'because itprovides j ust the 'element of uncertainty ~ 'o,tHer'wise :uris:sing in their lives" that is essential fo['~1i.eir happiness.

The: external ccnditions 'then that: are D10st likely to produce happiness are benefits xeceived at uncenain intervals, ana 'to' make the individual continuously cbn ... SCi01]8 of ius 'happilless,there must obviously 'be se,'vel~l such benefits during the course of his life,. Inthepresent economic conditions the prescription for a gre;at manJ' people would aD. '[00 ofteu be: renper cent In10I:e' pa.y fbt ten per cent less, work.with the dose necessarilyfepea,ted atnot in:&equen.tintetv"als~This is to put ·tlle ~atmer very crudely ~ 'btn: it does subscribe to' 'tbegel1¥IfB human _ view on the antithesis between work and p,le~ sure~Th,e prescription is, of 'COUfS,'! fantastically imp.Q,fio :sible'. of achievement overtbe course of theages, B~tm, in a single 'Hfet:im!e the cumulative effect of compound interest would defeat it, and ,though the son co'old ~~r 'expe:ct to, start where his father left Q~ yet he wOj~J.d expect to start above where his father had started, so ·that the ,law ofeompcund interes:t-it: is true 'ma;lt: it would. '~c

1160

TH.B PURSUI.T OF HA'PP'INESS

:~t PI lower rate~wo:uld a:gamcomc in for the s:ucceeding generations .. Th~re is no chance, Qf this: sort of,thing eonItll1.uing over a thousand yeaIs~ lee alone a million years, unless the're are: ultervening periods of disaster~ 'to gl:v'e occasion fb[' a new start, The' really wcnderful thing: ,.

about the' lasreenrury has been that exciting improve~ellts, of,c-oudi'Cion have been. happening ,a'c :freq,ucnt intervals for about six generations. Andeven so, it is not veFY evident that 'thO'SIC living in "the' present conditions of enhancedprosperiry are any .h.apP,iel' than 'the people described 'by Dickens,

. ,A,_ chiefq~,estionll fro.m 'the p~Killt efview oftrus essay; ~ whether there is, any survival value in happiness, Are the -naturally happy people more likely to he the ancestors: offurtur,e generations, than are the rest, fo,r if they are, then a ,gr~,atel" number of the' futtlre' racewill tend tc inherit ~s happy dispiositio'n~ The answer-is very doubeful~ and it ,may w,el1 be :nega,tive" The reason lies in the: fa,ct that contentment is 'no-tal. stimulus 'to action like discont-ent,._ It, J.11llst of course he recognized that there is, a good dfil of what I ,may call stimulated discontent, for many poHticalleaders: find it useful rc stir up discontent ;,lnong their adherents, even though these nla.y .r1eaUy be of the conten ted type .. Leaving aside: thisstimulated dis .... content, So man, who has the spur ofIlia own genuine discontent to drive him, 'win struggle harder to achieve successthan will rheconrenred 'type., Onthe la.verage'~ he will be' more successfcl, hut thesuccess will not cont-ent himvso that he will always be' spurred on 'to fur'£her efforts,,, If this .success is:" as in [he long run it will be" associated with his, making I greater ccntribution to

L 161

THB ,NEXT MILLION YEARS late!' g nerarions, it follows that the disc_oD'tented -_'~ will increase in numbers ar d1C e~pens,t! of the c·ont,ertt 'type. This, argument leads ro 'm_' disappointing conclu SiOiD tha't future man win be more discontented, ell, man of the p,resenc day ~ I do nor w,a:Dl't '[0_ pl'[ess ic'sttongl bu[ in tbe l"gbt of it, no ma·ttCI whal[ ~be' m:rure modirions oflife may be.there ,SJeelDS ,a,bsolurely no reason ~o' - . pe-- anynotable increase' in the sum of human happmJ--

In connection with the: 11la:tt,er ofhuman haPP'iness, it is a very perrinent question to ask whetber 'man :really enjoys being civilized, f?i on the ans:~er to some exten depe-nds the 5'rability ,0' future' civilization" In. ,'~e.,~nsl mere llrr e been so many cases, of the decay ofci '- _nom. '[b,at it is rather tempting ,t" believe that th majori,ry really ,6n,d a state of barbarism m(Jf congenial Thus chle civilization of the ,Mayas h2d alr,~dy seriously decayeclund.cr the rule .. fthe . Aztecs. ] on, bC£Of,_ it was desrroyed by ,th Spaniards, hgain _'d:r Reman Empire was destroyed by the onslaught of th Germans, in spire ofthe fact tha~ it had been s,rea~i1y~, 3D on, 'the who:l.: StJ,coessfuDy, civilizing man.y of them ,6 'rwo or thr e centuries b,e6 re tl e coU pse; drn.ey fO'L~the b"ubu.ic Hfc' more sadsfYil1g. To rake: ,31 mod, - lex mple, the' Republic of liberia ,w,as. re-peop:l~.d b ne roes returned to it from Alnerlca. These had " e civilizatioll. even if they ma:y 110'C themselves have ~a ...... ·'.I- __ much profit from it, but anyhow they showed Ii-.··

wish 't·o, avoid the relapse. _

Th re are no, ,doubt many causes ·that have Ied '[,0 su

relapses into barbarism, bur ,3), ,duef one is the exisee ' ·16z

'THE PUR.S1.J'IT OF'H.AP'PINES'S

of the class of men I hav. called h[lUies. Such men are apt 'to' 'be brave and self-confident, burt s'elnsll and con .... cerned only with their personal interests, and. ;lh,o,vlc ,all indifferent to rhe sufferings, OIf ~o,se around them, Such men, alw'ay;s, rea,dy to assume iea.d,eI'shi"p. IOI,Wy in~'eJ(lesre'd in 'their own advantag:', and indi'fferlent to th = ,6"ce of their €eUows", :aI,C ,Plerfie,cdy ,:D"dapted, instruments for' d .. rroying the dclicar,e balance ,of civilization,

Now ,though it is indisputable that mallY _ iviliz .'tiODS have relapsed into barbarism, each of them must after all have grown out ofb,31"barisIll befo'flt it could relapse,. so that instead ,of arguing that man h '_ relapsed inlO barbarism on aceount of his disli'k!e of civilization, QOC rni:,g,ht ar;gue with a~nlo"st equal fo:[ce tb~u he bas 'blccom civilized because b - do s nor like barbarism, The best answer 'to the q,u~stio,n which lofdlle Itwo he pI,c6 rs can he' givell by examining the parallel of anoehe . human tast I. IOriginally man was I hunter. and very many people' s'till ret-ain the trace of it ill 'that 'thy find a, spontaneous almost insdncdve, joy in the chase, which dl,'ey em get in no, other wea.y,. AboD,t em thousand. yea.rl, agothere came the 8;g,liculru'raJln~wo.lutio,n.. This was, a totally Dew [bing :fc)'r man-and indeed for tbe .-- ~hole ,ani.mal kin,gd,o,'m~ I'C_-P't for th( md pen" ~ 'eDt dis,cov,cry of it hy a few insects, ,Ar first: it can have ,hald, :110 emceional appleal aJt all, but rather dlC reverse; 'the discoverers mus't have felt thy were IdOling ,3 ,d.isagrl~~abL' and tedi~ OUI jnb and m,cY' -only ,did it because it was SCI clearly advantageous. For a long time the g.Ieatmajo'rity would retain ,the emotions 01£ 'me bunter" and 'would 'D,nly cul'ti,,',a;te the: soiil unde'l' thc~ impulsioD Df s;raik nec_~jty'.

16]

T· H"E N···"B-X·~T M· lLLI'O" 'N' Y-~A-,.iDS,,~

_,_" .....:_, .. _ ," - ," ',. . '_' .:......:.'_.J:....__ ~ .~. _ . ..I:i ~

'The practice of a,griculft1Iic was an ,D£f,dreJ' ,1uJ,':~n_"J'''''-'~ - :and, so' ir bad, to be' acquired anew in I atcb generation, D'WlY' mnst have rev,o;l.ted agai.nsr rhe l:e~i:um and B n hack 'to the more, congenial practice 0'£ hunting , there would be some whose nature was more toleraat farming who, won1d stay £arn1!e'rs~, and those ofrheir s who inherited the taste would continue 10'11 the far while their bI'~the['s would drift back 'to hunting, so til

... 1- --- , .,- ~ ~lld' 'l; - an' ',' n un- - roO""" ~ '"1'0" 'U' sel ecti 0-' 'n' 'U ("0-' "W' . '<;!Ii ,....11 ~ ,q"fI'tl"

'[1]ICr1e: WO'UlI~: !DC I_~ ,]~. ··1~~-,·.- : .... 'ci, LJ" I~' ,_ ,--. -'.'. _'. I~m 'U,;a -

culture, 'The new habit ofHfe would gr,a!dually,es'c31bH I irs If in some men J s hCf,edity" carrying wid] iE_ emotional appeal[ which might ultimately become - strong as had al',. ays 'been the a'~.I· l ofhwltm,g to th ~r,eSl' 0'£ "[he race, I dlo not know ,if ·b.iomogic:al priDe-ipl cou~d '[,dl how lo,:o,g the creation of such an iostin,· wo,'wd 'take,. bu.'c rhere is no n - d to ask the question, because we have the answer be'fi. re us' There' arc a BI_: i[ many people now' existing, that is, certainly ~ft r Is rhan ten thousand yea:r~wbo undoubtedly have ,the instinct foragricultl1Ie:;, these: are the people who cLetiv deep cmotionalsarisfaction (r,am:' ardening, even wh 'rh)ey are in DID way driven 1[0 i[ by economic necessiey 'Though Voltaire might be' claimed as typical produ.· ofthe age' ofciviliza,Qon, 11C r'-aUy belongs to the age 0 agriculture, for he: represents Candide, in his disgust a die world round him, as bn,dmg his uldmare ,sa'tisfacti in the culrivarion of his, gard,cD ..

The same sort of rh'ing must be happening, with th urban revolution. In China and the Levant this ,go back Eor several thousand years, and already thepromotion ,of the taste :60[' civiliza:tion from an acquired to .

164

THB PUR.,SUI,T os ,H,A'P'PlNE.SS

:,~:1_, '11 ,_'L. , - h 'L, b' .1.'

UJJJC1imt - nman ~ter mUlt ave ,Deg'm:lli." ":llt lor

_ , , f"':1L, ·'~d .. .'IL.!_ b d'] b ~,,€. ~n '"

:010$[ 0 . UIC wo:r.l 'WHi em, .' - ar " . .y : ' e SD 'Yer~ ill,rer au, m

western E'Luope and Am rrc.:J, it is ,hardly more 'than, cllirry generations since most of 'rh,e ancestors of the present city, dwel1ers 'wel,e co,mple'tely barbarous, and it IS, rherefore not' surprising that mat.y of their des-

C''"'" danrs '5]--10" 'uidl I'e" g '11 rd C]! -V-]~ t: ""'01.0' • o--n "",.~ -. di - - ~ -~ - - 1.'1- !...U " 1;,;' ,'.' • " v':_" ~Li - . > JlZ~',~! ~ L_ d~ a, sagr'-i,ea I!J _ e

necessity 'widl0utemodo,nal ,a pp'cal.Thisexplains, why sc ulmy civilizations have been rather ,shc,rt-lived, b'ut· it also answers 'the question whe:w.ler man (Ie-ally likes beir g civilized. There ean be 110 doubr whatever ofthe advantage ofheing civilized, in, th at it permksoflarger populations, and these will, prevail by 'their numbers 3"gams'r lhc' smaller poPUbriO'DS, o:f barbarism .. Some of the citizens may not like hemg civilized. at 'mepres'eJ1't time, 'hut mat does not matter. £011" in du course their desc ndanrs will growto like' it emotionally and instinctively, by the same process of "unconscious selection" from ~n.no:L1g them, as h,a.s happened with agriculture .. The process has begun already !I and in. the course of'a few' 'rh- Uland y,eals at most, a ,grea,'c fmedon of mankind win fe 1 :s,pollitaneously ehe emcrional p' lof' ivilizaeion.

Let me follow' this tram of thought to irs conclusion If the agricultural revoiution has,' Uo,w'cd hunting into' our Instincts, and if the urban revolution is goingthe same w,a,y~ wba:t ~ bout the sicienrific revolu,rion, which has, onlyjus'£ begun'? 'The Inajo,riry of nankind ,certainly have no taste for science; they regard 'the subject as a disagreeable necessity only practised fo,r its obvious material advantages, and they relapse from it with enthusiasm towards me more instinctive: tastes of the

165

'THE N,EX,T' MILLION YEA,R5,

earlier revolutions .. Nevertlieless, the: advantages: ,0£ tb new acquired character are evident!lal:la there ,cm. b little doubt that it will. £ollow the same COUIs'e' :3,': th previous ones by the gradual selection of'thos~e, who ~n the new syst-em naturally congenial .. In this w,ay I m expect that before the end. of ten thousand years, sci.en will make an emotional appeal to, the instincts ,of, majo,rity ofthe human race, ofthe same intensity' as, th emotions. they now' derive from the arts of the city. from the garden and from 'the chase ..

x

THE HISTORY

AHISTOR Y of the fun1re Hi ,different from a history cfme pa:st;., because it, Cat1110t in any sense be a nat-

o '( h ill'-'h . thin· lik

ratrve.Tt cannot say w ~ at w .. I"~appell m any -'·-;I~ .ike

the samemanner as past history says what did happen., All it iC~, do is to' say what things win be hap'pening' most ofthetime and in most places, but wirhout being' able to' speci~y those times and those places,. This ir Idees through consideration ofthe laws ofnature, chief alnong

hich- th 1 f"h h"

w I: is me taw 0" ,- uman nature In tl e preceding

chapters I have given what seem to, me to he 'the main principles of this law, and if I have given them correctly or even roughly ,SO':J' i.t win be seen that me genera] trend of' history is in~evitabllel,. It becomes llardly more than a

f .. d' ~ •

summary 0 my preVI0'llS discussions.

The 'Variety of happenitlgs of a. million years, is obviously se prodigious that, at some ,place and at some' time, almost anything that could be thought of will 'be found to lla:v;eo,ccurre,dil and, ~Q a prophet can fOI[e'tell what he likes with the fair cereainry that an examp,leofh: could be cited before the end ·oftbe period, I should nor be content with such a verification of my predictions. I 'want to forerell the things' that will be happening most of me time: and over most of the carrh, and I should

.. d' s: if'thehi ~ f- mil" 1'" h

CO'UD,t ~t ::;'1.5· detear 1'_ ·_C mstonan 01' ,;1 "'.~ uen years' aenee

1,6"

THE NBX,'T MILLION Y-BARS

should point out, that my forecasts, were verified, b~ cause they did once happen for a few decades on :Sr()m, remote islandia the PacifIC. Indeed I might express m~ ambition better by putting it the: other ""vay round, #.it the' end. of a million years so-me Gibbcn, with all thevist archives efthe world at his disposal, may undertake mh.e stupendous task of writing the whole history of '$e human race, In the excessively unlikely event of &is l"eadingthiswork, 1 should be 'best content if he eon .... sidered it as unworthy ofmenticn, because it was a lIu~,e description of all the things that were entirely familiar and merefore uninteresting, the things that all his reader05: 'would take for granted. He would feel free: to pass ell-cD). over, and spend his time in describing themore exceptional and remarkable thin.gs that had ha,ppened in the course of die ages,

Before coming to the derails it ~maY' be well to r,emino the readeronce again of the operation of the law' of large numbers In connection with probabilities In the events of the world one: cannot of course actually give' numerical values 'to. the odds as one can in a game at ,c:h:tll1Ce, but, I. can use, the analogy to show what~ I meUt., If I. said that the odds 'were two to one on such and s'ud:j; :1 state of the' world as compared 'to some civil state, I should not mean d1at it was mice as likely that the: favour,edstatc' would 'be happening all the time; I should mean that in the course of the ages iitwould prevail fotabouttwo ... thirds of the time, and the rival state for one". third, 'Now there can be no' dcnJb~_ d19,'t, most things irJ the ·world. faU under the category of large numbersthemere tace 'ili'3Lt 'there are even at the present time 'tW;0

'1-6'8·

TH.EHISTORY

rhousand million individuals guarantees this,....--so all·t prob~bilitjes: beco~~ certainties in the sense 'that 'Very probable things WIll be happening most of dll.C. rim e·

._ - ~ . ,;r:, - ... .!I··'I

whileless prob~able t~lings will still happen, hue only for

a small furt of [he time, But' there may be cceurrenees so r~re that the law of large numbers cannot be' applied to then~ at all;~ fDr examplethe discovery of the New' World in thefifieenrh century was oil unique thing, because there were no other new worlds to discover, Or' a$ahl there is the unlikely, bur possible!lchan'ce that there should _be_ a collision of t~le solar system with another star, which would destroy allli£e an earth, If any such rare evenr" should OCC111'~ it would ups'crt all predicdons, and there is noodling more to he said about it.

The~'e are no d.onb:c I'e_aders' who will dislike marryof the eliings _lam for~cas-t:ing' and who will tty-to evade them by 'the hope that one 'of these' rare unforeseeable chances ,vi~cDtn~ely alter things,. and lead 'to a condition of the worldm.ore to their liking. ~-., Iris possible but it :'':-

_. ". I - _._ _" I '. - &..- ~

~uch_~ore likely 'that such thiilgS will he unfavourable

than favourab.~~., W,here~s small changes produced by Mance are as likelyro be beneficial as detrimenral"w.hen. it ,c?mest~, large. changes,1 thep~Qhability is ,thatthey ~ ~,e Wlfavour~ble. I have ,iliea~y" cited an example of thl,S from rh science of genetics, w here, by means. of X~ra~5, changes can 'be ind:u.ced in the genes of ' the cells of_ anffil~s,. If the change is small; it may benefit the animal, _hut if it is large it is almost invariably deleterious, and often let1~al., The 'balance of the narural forces in an animal is so delicate, 'that ,any larg,e change in one feature ups,'ers i,t,entir,ely; onlyifthere were compensar-

169

T:H.E NE'XTMILL[ON YEA]\J;

.. 1-'1.. -.- .' .. JL. t:. .~ 11d- ... L JI'!' .'

mg .U''8:e cnanges m otner reatures ,cow,;_ 'we COnwtlOD

~ •• :.1. - __ 'm b · d JI ":11'.. ,- aU-

ortne animalbe im,p,r,orvec ," ana, mere is :praaic i_'y' no

chance of rhese other climges 'pening' '[01 OICcnr silnultaneously .. A s:imilaE' principl'e must at.p-ply ro i£h,e delicate balance ofineeracricnswhich g'o to make 'up' ,the life of the human race, Thus ;anyo.ne who hopes rhar some rare, large, wlforeseeabh: occurrence nla.y hefte'r rhe far,e o:fbununiry is :dmos;c certain 'rio be dis.appo:mred, for it is enormouslymore likely eo '~' Olsen ir~ T'he 'bar hopes: ,of hencfiring 'hummiry are '[01 be bas,ed ner en '£11is;J' but on 'the working ofsmall changes, and '[be law of

] b b '} "'d-' ..,.1., ...• '11

arge i1.nm',crs"y W)l::1 tnere Hi at teasr some .pros,pect

little by little: of improving the condition of the world,

In what foUo'wl I shall divide up rhe principal ,activi-, ties 'of h,ltDlaIu,ty, Wlder 'me headings, ,of popruIal:io~

., d-I d-· d- 1 b . ~JI':lL .•

economics; me SO on, an!;:_. conn aer eaen ·rJ.enym mrn,

11 may be weD 101 repeat th;;L't the views I p,ut forward. OiDL these subjects are not m'cended '[10 be' ,exclusive., It is 'co 'be expected mat there will be: manY' bappenings '[hac eontradiee rhein; I ,am ,only claimin,g 'wat ,such h;.ppcn .... , ings are likelY' [10 occur a, good deal less, ftclqu,endy dIaD,

the conditions .dIC!H7ib.ed. here:" - ·

• O'PUI.,A"lm 0 N"

The central fea:tUJ."ic of'humsn 'history must always, be dlC preS$Uf'(! of population .. Man 'I ehewild animal.,w.iIl ,obey the law ,ofHfe and 'will tend to nUlldply until hie is limited by ,tbe means of subsistence, This is ehe Do:r:m.al ,condition of rhe world, and it carriesthe co:usequeDce: 'that ehe final check, 00 p,olnili;doll is. b,y s;carv3'QOn,., There 'will be a :fra:crioD ofh'Umanity·~ a. 5tdrfJitll tJJ'arli'N'11

[70

THE H'IST'Oa,Y

who ,baVIC' ,g;Qt '~O' die simplY' because not 'CDD,'ag~, ,"ood c.an be gr'o,wn 'to' keepthem ilive'.. The' death may 'be di:rewy' due, to' mrermL)'rt-eDtfit'mLincs, or 'tOI diseases ca:usedb,y.malnutritio,n, 01" it maY' 'be due '£0, warflle~; f,or when I, C011JD,try is, dying ofstarva.tion a.nd SIr!eS .• or dlinks it, sees, 3l neighbouring ,country with plenty toeae, .it would be beV',OJld most human nature to accep't certain

J ~ "

p,w:i.vc: dea,dlinsread 'of possible active death., The: cen-

ttall"] ues.aOll, fOI.r .humanity is. me problem ofthe 5tarvin,g

~

mu:gJD~

Tothose of w living the life of EUIOp'~ ,at the pres;en,t' time this is ,11 sh:oc~g fact~ iI11plying a condition so W):"'"' familiar tha.:ll' there are ,many who .may not 'williug;ly believe ir, This, is because of It be quire exceptional history' of the nille'r,eenrb cen:wry, during which, in spire of

. r- _~11_ '.' • ~! _]

encemous :U1creases or I Plopwatl.O:O" ,mauy Icoun,lmes! Ila,O,

no s;tarving mar,gjn, at all. The disbelief ,may b,ebel,p,ed 'by 'the fa,cc cha,t Ihe pOpulI don, of some countries, ,b.as [,ec:e'otly stU1ted EO decrease, Sucb decreases have occa .... , sionaUy happened before tiCOI, 'but, as I have argued earlier, dl"eiY constitute an eJ],ltu,ely unstable staee ,of a,f[urst in dl(1trdlJeD.a:tionswhicbar,e~ decreasing ill numbers will die out, an,dwill be replaced hy th " s:tarving ,margins of tbe oehers,

On the time ... scale I am coasidering, rhe aotion of starvaticn can be 'treated as if:it wer,etlnifotmmd centinuous, 'but it ],S fo,rtnnate that itweuld not ,ap'P,ca.l' so' to the :indi,vidualJ ·for famincs!at,c DO'( li.k!c that, Smee

~ d ~ 1 'I, f- ~~ "':L.

man em never ,aspIre 'to' ae rea; C!Q:nUIO,1! 101:": cnmate, merle'

wiD always, be: flucruano'n5, inthe harvests he can PI,l"t:)ooo, duee, Por someyears there may be: a s:equcoc'e of gc,od

171

THB NEX,T MILLION YEAR,S

harve9tB~ srud., starva'tion will 'be forgott'~en b'y everYODI. but, afrer thac ,a. few bad harvests will fatally redress dIe' blldlce'., So it would be! WI'O'11g to imagine that [the starving margin suffers ,a life of continuous grindinl misery~, b~.n f'adu::1' one of 'nliscry :ab:IE:'matin,gwi:m it precarj'Qu,S pro&per~~ty" Even !O rhere are many at 'the presenr dOle 'who will [Ieg'ard this state of ,affairs as very drmdfUJ~, 'but:~, as I rurve:alr,eady pOln'red IO'U'f't ir has al:WJYS' 'beenrhe normal ccndirion of BEe ,of the E:sldrniOS" who have dIe' reputation ofbdng tIle most clu;exful race 0[1. earth. So, as far as concerns the inclivlduaJ, tllesta;r:vmg margin 'would not be ina 'state of continuous misery:, but [adler of misery alternating widlh3tppmess:~ 'which, ,af~er all is, 110:[ v'ety -:far' hellow the state of Idle rest 'of 'me WQ!rld .. , F'o!f 11is![ory' reg:ar,de1d on. the l!ong'-te:r:m scale, howe er, m,e:se fJlucmao:olU, of pl:rlosperiry disappear~, and, the' fact bas tOI, 'be faced! r:b.~u~ it win b e s.~arva;rion .all:r limits, the numbers: of fie human race ..

'The effects, ofover-population 'will be :3. chLef£eatllte 'to be considered in the later sections of this chapter hut here the queseion arises of what the 'total population ,of 'me w,o"rld, is likely eo he, and rhe answer is immediate, Wha,tev1ef food me - '-,nl of mankind may produce, there will alwaysl be' e'Dcdy the rigi1:c number ofpeoplC!' to eat it. It ill comes backto Maldl'llsl',S; d'o,cuine' and, 'tOI 'me faa'tiul'r an arirhmetical progression IC2mlO£ £ign't againsta gecmetricalprogressiou. If :at ;any time some' dislcovery II usuaUy an agrieultural OI1e~, should make a ,gre,lter' supply 'of food avail:;!lbl'l!~then~1 l,eckonin,K on dl~' r r,m tim,~,s,cale, instantaneously me populadoD;,

_, .rise to lbe' new levet,md (~diel' dl,a:t 'thll1gswill glQ' ,DiD 17:2

'T'HE HlS:TO<R.,Y

as before" but nOlw' with 'a lar:g:e1'" st-arving' 'ma.rgm in dle luger population, It is bY' no 'Olean's evidenr that che w'O(~d will be Imy rhe better for i'[j but the paillt is nee .. whether it is a good rhing, but whclther it wiD 113ppleD, and 'du: ans'wer is due' Wldoubtedly irwin., The social sense of my eommnniry, m,d its immediate pra,cdcal inrerest, will,nom: tolerate living in, contact 'widl 'the sufferingsl of its: OIW'D s:tlarv.ing margin, if i'fr is in my 'w,ay possible to relieve them, Thereliefwill an mOIOI f.requen:dy· involve badagriculrural p:I'acci!cewhi~c:h. wiU ruin dle land in the long run, but short-term necessity will alw'ays prevail a,gainst IOI,D,g .... term prud"enc:e. What is the good of relHn ,g a man 'chait: he :lD'U'S[ die now fer he'ar' rh,:lc ,his, gl"a1ld.son,ma.y be short of food, a. ,cen'nn-y hmlce'? So all lo"v'er ,tbe ,;"odld, rherc will he immediate p:rcssuE,c:tQi p:roduce'morc food, ,and [h,e forecast of dl~ futwe numbers ,of mankind, is, [he same: thing as the fO'feCa,S,[ ofm,e fUN.re of ,aigrjc:ulrl1rcl,b,'U,t 'wlfor:ctlDa'~ely' iE will. all too of~ennot be the ideally best agriculture,

I: donot 1010W' bow far' it would. be possible at the pf1csenr 'time tOf' an, ,a:gricWleural explert '1:0 fOEiclc2l'st dle ,t,o'cdam.o'Ufic offoQ,d rhe earth could produce, burl am ,certainly in no 'w,a,y q,ualifilcd to do so Dlysdi '( shaH 'tb:erlefore"dlo,ugb ,oDlyvery 'tJentativc'[y, set d,o'VllO ill few' consideranons en '[he subje1ct, In, ,the's,caJr!e of wild nature animals and plants have learnt tel live evea in the most unfa,v'Ou[,abl,e sires, which they have been driven, to' ,oocupy through the intense p'Io5sure ,of_natural selection .. T.ws su,gl~esrs, d:l,a:t the 'clo,tal amount of livin,g matterof illkinlds on earth can never be very' difE"erlen.tf[omwha,jf' i,ris ll!OW,~ It is rrue that new ice ages olr pluvial p,elliods~

1121

'TH.ENE'XT MI,L'LI'ON YE.AR,S

which we cannot fore reU I' .1night bring rain andtherefare fertUity 'to thepresent deserts of the earth, but even iEthete were no compensatoryloss of fertility ebewhe~e'J. this would hardly 'even, double the area available £0:[' life .. S'Q it may be assumed that the totalliving matter of the e$Ztll is roughly eonstant, and, all 'clu.,t man can hope ~,o do is 'to convertmore of it to his O"Wl1 me. 'This he does 'bY' promoting the gl·owd1. of pardculartyp.esofpltUlt :Q;t: die lexpense of the rese; it, does not increase rhe to:tal amount of Iiving matter, for thcre mnsr be' less vegetable: life in a wheat field" 'man in 'me same field when it, is ]ecf 'to run wild., Now undee the pressure of his needs man hasakeady ,exploited 'to avery great exrenttbe mar'c fertile soils in. llmny p'uts of dl,e world" but be hal only .succeeded jn repllcing the wild plants 'by food ,plants rheough the liberal use ,of fertiJi·zers., There are still no doubta good many part's of the earth where this has not ye·[ happened; in particular tins is true' of ' the N'ew 'W,or:)d, 'where 'the: ,pr,essure ,of ,p'opula:rion has, ncn;yet: become' at all severe, But on the whoJ~ to develop fUr~ ther fClOd supplies, means devoting inferior l~ds !~a ,agl"ic111ture,~ and sueh .laads will call for an even gr"Clter use ,off er tilizers, So the possibility of greater s,'llppUes, of fOQ:d tnaybe assessed by rthe Ivailable 's.upply of ferciliza;s ..

. It may then be' that [he future' numbers of humanity, will depend on the abundance in 'me snr&ce of W,e leafth, ofehe ~chemical elements wruchare necessary for lif~~ .Most of 'them. are abundant enough to raiseno difficu1ty,~ eid'u~:r because ithe.y occur in ,practically wilillrited(I"lm~ ,tfdes~ Of because only small quantities areneeded, Two

174

THB HLISTOFl Y

only deserve comment, nitrogen Old phos.pbotus~ The, supply ofnitrogen in me air is quite' unlimited, but it i.s not easily availa.ble 'to plants 'by natural p[oc,e!!isesJ~ ,and to supply it in su.fticien.t quanrities, fOrr agriculeure oem,ands 8. -considerable, amount ofmechmicatl power ... Thi,s rnethoi,dofgettmg nitrogen is ofcourse already common practice, andprovided enough work is done, to win it" there seems noreason to rhinkthar .nitro,g,en need ever ran short. The ''1 uestion of phosphorus is fir mO.re serious though less of it is needed, ,At" the present' time it cannot be said to be31ctuaUy in short ,supply .. ,thcu;gh even ItOW it is' eemmercislly very p.~o£itahlc 'to mine fossilized phosphorus de,p05iTl:~ and they are used even in the soils which are na,t'ur.ally fertile:. There are great tracts ·cf land, in paI'ticula~'in Africa, 'which are - per-, manently defici,ent:in phosphorus"md these can never be raisedtQ, the fertility of themore :fa,voured regions, unless .la.rgc qu~:tities 0'£ it Ca.l\ besupplied ro them .. So it ma.y wen 'be that rIlle future numbers of the human race will dependen the abundance ef'phosphorus in the earth ssurface,

I have 5:0 far DIlly considered extensions of the methods of ordinary agricwtur,e as the 'way eo increase focd rupplies, but ther€l .r,e.m.aIDsme possibility dlDt whoUy new methods might be discovered, All existing animals depend on. 'w,e vegetable kingdom for the s~upply of the constituents of their bodies, 'hut man mig~t aspire 'to :free himself from mis, limitation. It may well be that some day it will 'be ti)und possible to syntbe51ze from theirccmponera elements some of the exc~ed,mg:1y Ico,mp,. Ucat~.d moleeales which make up·.' the imp· '_'·O'f.tan't'

.. " j ,_

17"

'TEtE NEXT MJ'LLI'O'N YEA,R:S

Pf10m:im., The essential fmt s('ep is ro do dlis ,on the! laboln~o.ry sal~e'I' but even if this was Ilcco'mplimed .i:r wowd be a very dilIer,en[ thin,g to makerhemin 'bulk" and it would ccnsriture a, problem of chemical en,gmecfimg; very ,far' beyond any ,that has yel been dreamed 0[, 'It is; perfecdy open eo anyone to disagree, but I simply cannot believe chat' there will ever eri~t_ factorie~ cap:a1:l1e: ofiturlling. inorganic materials directly into fO'od:t so wt tbey should be ,able to diD it on a scale which could ,su"pplyme diet of thousands of millions, [of m,an'km,d .. , Unless ir could be done ,DiD this sealeit wlou1d not haVIB my ma:ra:iaI e:froct on the numbers IOC h'tunanity,.,

There remains the possil - . ty mat' ,new types of vege-, 'a bile, sh'Q'old, 'be converted inro£ood,bf' -[<)it .. man, I halle a1rea,d~Y' touched: on 'tbepossibility 'that man roigh'c some' day make ,grass in.to an areiele of human ,dic:'r" w,wcb is iu, e:ffecf only to say (hac he mighc discover a more ef1id.eDt W3.y efeating it thanthrough 'the medium of'becf: ,Due it is 'Ito be remembered dutt the ax has to graze most of' m,e time in order to g,ee enough pro,tc:iJlt!ven for its ,Dvm. bOlmy,~ and d:us :&hows that only ,I small tt,aICtionof 't~e ig'l"-ass could 'be ,[Ieally uu~:fUJ eo man, The process ,of directly Icxtt;acring ehe 'proreinmigll'c 'bit! more ,efficient than makingrhe ,ox do ,ir',~ bur it would hardly be blDL,dr,,,ds, of rimes man: effic~,cll'r .. An!d h is: a:t least pODi'ble '[h,atl. 'when '[he planr .... breeder had Dllodi6ed the graS/5, irrto, bic,j;ng rich Ulpl'()rcems:" _ would, find it, demanded. f<s-' tilizers OlD sud) a larg~ scale, tba.t it 'would be more profitable 'to use the,m instead fO'f growing wheat.

- A quite ,different su,ggesitlOl1. that has been made, isl that £oodsup.pliescould be increased to an enormous 1'70

'THE, HlST10R Y

exrenr by rhe Iculrlv31no,n of me vast areas 'of me: oean", The prorspec[s, do nor loo,k at all good. We know 'dlat every spring the plankton gI'OWS, 1&:0' fllSt d13\r' in ,s few weeks, it has strippf'd rhe upper layers of the ocean bare of some (]fche chemica] salts nccde,d, fOI life. Toget large fbod, supplies our of the sea, would th.crefore de .... malld.muCh more than the mere harvesting of the plankton, though 'this wo\dd itselfbe avery fonnid~able 'task indeed, Either it would be neeessaeyto expend all enormous amount of power in chu rn iD,g up the ocean, so' asto make available t:hc' salrs :fr,onl the uni n.1pov,crishcd d:epttths. er else fertilizing chemicals would havle to be poured into the sea. on. 3" quire fat],[,asric scale,

l shaJj]! not pursue such conjectures further:" since, when unmade discoveries are a,dminCid '[0. he possible" du~ subject hecomes so uneereain thar it is llardly a p,l"'o:Htabh!, field fOlf' close argument, Nevertheless -I;ball risk 'sQyi.ng what 'appC,i)XSto 'be the most probable foreicast of the, 'filttu"C numbers of mankind, r:houg.h I need not say ~ I re)GDglllze that it may be completely upset by SOUle, unfo"re.seell discovery, In view of toe (act that i'~ is only the existing vegetable kingdom dla:t can be exploited, I do not hel ieve ehere will he my revolutionary ,changes in agriculture bur lonly iSlt,ead.,. improvements; theinlpl'OV'Cnl,enrs will, 10 to SJP'c:ak.,i 'he described by increases ill percentages, :110'[ by IDtd'riples, of the present yidds~ The wo!rld w'il] 'be' covet',ed 'by a population ofthe'~i'.ame sort of density as is now fOlmd in itsricher agricultural districts,:m countries such as China", India or much of Europe; but, ill reckoning rhis, allowance must: he 'made' for dUfererujes ofcumatc and of me

M .177

THE NEXT MHkL,I,'ON, 'y'!A,IlS

'D2,'tm;al .ferriliry of ,tbe soils, In effect d1is w.ill mea'D 11Q great increase i:~1 ,t'be pcpulations 'Df Burope and Afii.~ The' SIOiJS of'Africa are £01 the: most parr not-so go€)d~, but rhere is room f(Jlt someincrease there. 'There s,boul~d, be grea:t increases in the Al'llfXicas" andconsiderable ones in .~1J,stt,ilia and in some of the' large Pacific is,lwd~.,··A~s I

~12vle p,oin~t~d out short .... term DJctOes:sirry' is ,often ,likely '~O ,mce.ffer,ewi,~dt reaUy good, ,cu.lriva,don~, bat even, :if'mis ~ood~ruld:vati~n eonld be assumed" iE mary he: ,e;s:clma:ted that 'the po'pullrio:n of the: world is never l:ikelly to be' morethan about wee to ,five times irs, present numbers:,.

G'OI.:DEN ,A'GDS,

'The condi'Qons ,of population p'n.~S3urle must be eX!peeted tOI 'be' the wo,r.l.,cf's :no:rmaJ state, but' ir is not '0£ course a. con:stmt state, :£0,[ there have tU ulEervais been

wh~l'cma.y· b--' '-HI d' .. ~ J. .' dl hi e:

'.'> ,', ~_.eC'a ~e'=go~(J:f'n ages" p'e[llOl .: s w_en, :[01' a

'time~,par't of,th.e: 'world, could ':6o,rg-c'c a:bOIU,t the sta:rvmg margm,. There has tended to be ,I certain wnrpin,gin 'the ~roportilon's of hls'[or-y" as ,givieI1 to us 'by historians, pet;... hl,ps ~eca:use it has 'b,een,!crue8y dwin:g g\Qlid,eD, ages! that :[h,er,e: hu been, ~'Um~"eDt meis,ureEo,[' anyone 'co become an

'L~ .' -_. '11'11 • ..1L

mstorrlaD., AI: au, events tne grea,t hiLs,fQ,ri,eJ, olf'me world,

have \,IOO'D., w,ri'tt'CD in such P·'·. er . icds: Hero ~"O' I't··· 1,1I~; ,.,.1l,.,~f;""'''h-,pr

r- . . --- ~ , - '-" . U! ""!i.dY ~,'m"", ,~a..!,1 .....

of, bis,toIy"wrote durmg thc~ c)QlmmelciS11'boom of A:mens" Tacitus ill the g,rea,t ,days of imperial Rome", '~'bblon ,at tbte height, of 'the ,eigh~eendlcenturyA:ge of Rjeaso:n,~md boweYler muchtlrey were depicting less £.'voutable times~rh,eir' viewsw'cre :inevirl,bl:y ,co,]oured 'b'yrhe condido!1lU ·rh,l.r 'm,ey saw 'folund them .. , NOlw'wiC' are ]ivinS; in ,0[' ,P- 'PS at the end ofl,g:ol~den, a,ge', which

17'8,

TH,S RI:S,TOIl Y

,~~'weH ,Pr'OVi! to 'have been ehe greatese g,o~d,en :aglt: 'of ,a;nm.n~' and we ~a,~ are' ,ape 'to' be' warped bY' rhe feeling wa,r llf IS ,I nermal nme:~ --

I_ Many readers may b'e mocked at ,first a'e thc,iliought d1,I.'t ,t'h~ pas,t century, an epoch S'O often decried for its man'~ faults., .. sbould have beea the greatest of golden a~es, .b~[ I ~ink, it can bejusri6led. In P,lSt ,go.Iden21,I,e.s me prolspe[l'tyw',as, usually ar dlC exp'ense' of oeher p,eoples; fOf' ~mpl!e, Rome prospered 'by loc"ting the least: and en~ma,vmg _the barbarians of the west, ,Our gold n ~ge' came a.bD1.1,1~ with comparatively little harm, toethers: tt, was mainly through mechanical discoveries: which made possible transporeadon on a great scale, so thar va,s~D·.ew areas of me 'world. could-be opened up :for ag;n,culrulie" It is true rhat [his was done tar,g,ell" ,~t dle expense of rhe Ameri,cm Indian, and, histrearmenr ,ofreD does not make: . p:re'try story. but 5,DU it 'was; a case ,o,£' JDany ~~ndred millions prospermg at the 'expense of ~ few nli11.~o:ru~ ,~d ~o the proporrion of'suff"ering infiiC'ted, to beneti.'c received must have been far smaller man in m.ost ,OC the previous golden ages .. The chief ben,e6,t was of ,oo'~s:e to the white' race! ,of lrl1e ,Admric seabcard, 91ho fo[, ~,ore ~an :1 tieD_tULrY' ba.ve been able ro (orgeE ,~:b~,.u,t '~arsrarvmg macgin,'~IU'r it has 'by no means 'beerd. limited rothem, for many of'che ether races have bene-

~tled too a.~ .is 'wime~,sed by rbe grcti'[ increases ofpopuL~ non 'of India and. Af~ilcalJ d],Qugh in these par'fs of dIe 'worl~ tlley ,hl~e 'l11~'r, bem so easily able ['0 forgier Itbeif :s,tarvmg margins, We are a'gai!] becoming very ,COD-' seioas of the wor~d' spopuLu:ioD problem, but :now there' are no frondeD or 'nnlmOIWD pam ,of 'me wOII,ld,

]1:79

THB N'EXT' M'lLL,I,O'N YEARS,

into wlncb to cx.pmd~ and so our golden ageis probably near its end,

10 the fu.ruretbetewill ofcourse be other :gold,en agCSt 'but ill: can bardly. be expected rhat ehe balance between good and ill will 'of~en 'be as fav'Ourahl,c :L:S if has been m the recent one, It might be that. either by conquest or bycomlnercia.lexploitarion J' some region should ga.m mastery 'over other regions, to such anexrenc thar it could relieve the starvation of its own margin at their. expense, The conquering nation would floufIsh md ,_,~,n it a g" olden ,aa,e, forO",erMu chart its, prosperity 'was

~ - - -- Or: I" ' b' 1! ;:, I~I . . ~ l .

a,t the expense: ,ofdlc peoples iE' ha,d OV',CI'ICQ,mc:;, it' would

'be very unlike the ,c,olo,nj,al,exploira'rio'l1:S of lour own. age'., 'whicb~ even if mer a re o'pen '[0 criticism in some 'w,ays" have in most cases increased [he' populations ,of the colonies, Anomer ,p,o,ssibili,ty ,thwr: luighlc create a. DEW golden ;a.:g,e is mat some discovery should make :ayailable I vast :new source of £oiod~ andthat consequently dlette: would he enough food fa'r perhaps double the p:reviQUI, population of the world. Alt~ once '[here would 'be a ,g'Qllden age", 'but af~ler a, ve:ry fc'w' gener$:~ons, 'mer'esult 'w(u:dd be even 1110rc: desperate 'rban before, forthere w,o:tdd he: a starving margin of peDiplle now twice as ,grea,[,., This in effect is DO't wIH1~e 'w'ha;r has, 'been haPP'Cl1.ing ,re)cendy~ bur the present a:gehu .had an ,advant,agc:~ 'never' likdy to, be: repeated, in that it started ata time WlU:'l1 d16, civilized. "w1o:rld ba,ld, frond1crs overwhich it couldexpand, andnow it has abolished all ITonde[s. '~'Y; expm1ding'o¥trthe whole, earth .. Unless there should be a c{l,tas'ttQlphe to 'the world 'beyond all thinking'. it: ,CUi 'never contraerte such all extent tllt1't' there 'would a:g1mn

180

THE HIS,T'O'!\,'y

be :brontie[s" and, it: is only if ehis hap,p,f:'ned ma't If ,could, have the chance '0£ again lexploidng the vacant places of '[be earth, so -tha,! ooJy under these oonditiiollS Ic:ould there 'be: another g!Qlden age.which in ;:my sense wouldmatich the present one,

S CH!NC:a

1:[ is the fashion at the pr'r!sCllt: time in some circles; to decrY'du: value of'scienrific discovery, Sind ro claim that iE is, responslib]e for all our ills-no doubtthere was a simibu fashion ten thousand years ag'o co decry ,agria:drure, T,ms view simply ,vill n,o,'~ bear examination .. N,o one would dispute that there are some new rronbles in the world which were nor for,esclc;llt but they have' come about puciselydmough tb,e S,ucci6s:dul solution 'ofpro~ lems which man has, :alwa.ys, been tryingro ,solvleJ tholJlgh nevler befol"~ with fillu,dl success, I-Ie has always aimed ,at m,aking a berter ,life' by curing disease, by ,P'[olongjllg life and by lenlarging- his eornmunities so as bette'[ [.0 sp,l",ead and S11M'i:,tile ,risks of' the world. Suddenly dnough rhemethods ofsciC1!nctQ.,. in particular by the new :ll1etho o.s. of communicaticn ,and 't[,ans,portarion and 'by m,emca] science, be: find,s chait all these mm,s, are acw,cvcd, hu[ he disco,ve:rs that dley' lea,d [0 new f['IQubl,e,s, he h~d not hadtbe iwagmadon to think of. SO D'O'W he is b.anrin:g those who have done exacdy whir he asked, because be finds hedoes nor ~ik,e 3, few of' the consequences, and be fOlf,g,e'fs ih,at be is all rhe time ,[ieClciving benefits out: of an proportion to, these troubles.

The cen,e£i.ts 'of science whid1 affect rhe ordinary matt directly are dueeosuch thing,s as medi,c'al science and 'tb,e; I.8,I

THE NBX.T MILLIQ,N YEAR.S tt:al1s:poltation of foodstuffs, togerher wi'tlb. things Uke the electric tight and the telephone or radio, wnidl might he classed rather as luxuries: than necessities. These would. never have arisen but fhl' tIle developments of pure science, which is primarily an intellectual purtuit:, studied for its own interest rather man for any inte'uri9'11, of benefiting humanity. It is fortunate that there: are many men who are driven by 'chis pllIely inteDec:tual, urge, for knowledge would never have advanced far if it had only beenstimulated by the motive of practital benefit to bUlnmiry. It is the pure scientist who hJi opened upnew realms of thought to' me rest of rhe world, and the advance continues,

There: seems to be 110, bOUlld. to the fu:ld ,of scientifl.C':

I

'thought" bur neverthelessin an topposite sense ev,ery new discovery does seta bound by excluding alternati~~B·

1 - h- h d bef 'b- d- d .JI_!:_ "'b') I ... L'!-~

Vi aic - _' La _::__, . -,<:1:'0['1: _ --- ,oon, r,ega.r, = e, etas aarnn:Sl- _- e" . nQ,;JJj

second sense the field narrows'; for example, ir is notpeemit ted now :[0 doubt the validity of the laws ofthermed.ynamics-Ia.wswruch were q uite unknown little more dian a century ag·o. But this.is not the occasion for a technicaldiscussicnon the future of rhe physic.al sciences and I will only say chat, whatever new ideas may come up- ..... snd rliere is everysign that there will be many ci£ them:~,there' is srillplenry of room for' improvement inside theknownfields, In the hard times to come ieis not to be expected tha't the remoter speculadons of puce, science will be: pursued as energetically as its pracdc~ applicdtions; for example, metall urgy' and. chemistry 'will :ap'pear more important 'than astronomy, snd forcuu3.te!:r mere' seem great possibilities fo.r development for a tOB,e

I,83

THB HI S,T oa Y

time in thesep'racdcu sciences. N everthele!s wlcmay con£ideru:ly expec'c that: mere will be some who" Iik.e FaradaYII,sl'dll hear' the call 'of pure science, for it is: from the:rn. dlat th.e really greaesdvaaces will origiaare,

Iris in the biologicalsciencea 'mat themost exciting pon:ibilities su;ggest th,emselves; perh.aps because biotolgy has only recentlyshewn rapid advances like rhosemade C'aIUe!" in the inol[ganic sciences .. I mil only speculate on a few amOin!; Tile-Sf: poss.ihilitims! which might ha.vegreat ,efti~c'[.s on human life'. I have :alread y referred. to the possibility of quite new sources of food, and I need not enlarge on thae further .. ,Anodlet 'cype tof discovery may 'be connecred with hormones, those mt,e.nlal chemical secretions which so largelyregulatte the operations ofthe human body, Tbeard.fi.c:ial use ofhol'1l10neS, has ,~I'ea.dy been shown tOI haveprcfound effects on the behaviour 'of animals, 'a11d it, seemsquire posslble 'mat hormones, 01" perbaps drulfs,might have similar effecrsonman .. For example" there might be a. drug, which, without other l1armfu] 'eff'e'ct',s" removed tbeurgellCY 10'£ sexual desire, .and so reproduced in humanity the status of workers, in a beehive, Or dle~e might be another drug that produced apermanent state of cententmentin the recipient~a£i:eran alcohol does something like ellis already, tho'cgh i,t has. other disadvantages and. is, only tempora~ry in its e:ffeces. ,A dicta'corwould certainly w·elcome' the compulsory administration of the "con .... tentment dl'ugu[o his su bj ects,

. .Another possible, though rather remoter, discovery' suggests the most curious consequences; this is me control ofcnc relative numbers of the two sexes, IE is knOlVD.

:E8"

THE NBXT MILLION' YEARS

that the sex of a child is carried. by the s,perm" not. the OVUInI a11d it is at least imaginable that some method could be found for sorting out those of the sperln cellS, 'which carry the male 01" the female character. It wlouli thus become' possible 'to regulate how many men or women there should be in a population. If such a pracdee could be' developed it is sure that for ,3, rime ,th~1 would. be ,I great unbalance in populations, .. A nation with ambirions for conquest' would. produce a large number of men fOf' its soldiers, but would pay for it by not having enough women to g.~ve' birth to the soldiers for succeeding generations. '0,0 the other hand" just ,as the stockbreeder keeps few' 'bulls and many cows, another

-nation might deci.d.e rhae it needed few men in order to maintain its numbers, Wauld 'such a predonlinanny female population be able to stand up againsrthe: male one, or would a "rapeof the Sabine women" rectify !me disproportions?

.It is clear that rhe most remarkable effects will he produced if such developments in 'biological science should come about, and it is impossible to conjectuse how they will tum out .. 1 can only record theopiuioll that. in. the: long run their effects will mainly cancel out for d1C reason - I have developed in an earlier chapter~, that man is and will continue to be a wild animal, Itol produce effecrs of these kinds th re must be a master, and the master D'1USt be above and nO'1: subject tOI tlie prooedurle he is enforcing: on. his, su hj ects. The d.ictato£ could not afford himself to take the "Col1tentment

- I

drug"!·', because ifhe did so his, capacity for rule watild

certainly degenerate, It always comes ba.ck to the ,sante 184

·TH··'['7 HI-S-T' 0- R"I Y

,".0 "." c' . I .. '.:'

.po~t, that 'to carry out any policy s,ystenutically in, such a way _as permanently to inflnenceme human race, '~er~, would have to' be a master breed ofhumanity J not Itself exposed to the conditions it is inducing in the, rest,

The master breed, being wild animals" would be subject ~o all the (mons,; tastes and passions' of'hul11anity,as; we know it, and so would never have the constancy to e-stiblish for generation after generati()n a consistent policy which could materially alter the· nature of mankind.

In connection with the recent 'wonderful advances in medical science, this is the place to mention a matter that will very soon indeed be of immediare imporrance. Since in the normal condidon of the world there will be a margin of everY' population on. the verg,e of starvation, it seems likely 'that there will have to be a revision of the doctrine of the san ctity of the individual human life. In the old days the doccb:rs were under ttl.e. obligation of do~g all they could "QI preserve any life, though they had no great success in their efforts;, now it is hardly too much to say that most diseases have come under control, or anyhow to judge by recent progress most of them soon win.B:ur~s rhe world the better for having a large number of healdlY people dying of starvation, rather than le{~g them die' of malaria? One of the justified boasts of recent times has been the great decrease that medicine has made in jnfant mortality. Where,as in the: old days a mother might hear ten children and have onlyrwosurvive, n'DW she may bear only three and she will 'he regarded as very unIlL1<:ky' if aU do not survive .. But the difficulty in the world is going to be 'that the

l8s

THE NEX,T MILLION YEAJ...S

n~mbet of'people born is, too gr,ea~ for ,the food sup ... plies, s~ that ,I fractio:n must die anyhow; may it, not b " better that they should die in infancy? Th,e truth is 'cha't all 'Out present codes about the sancery cfhuman life are based on the securityof life as it is at presene.and once: m:at is g'one they will inevitably be revised, and the :1"0- vision will probabl y shock most of our present opinions,

B'CON'OMICS

A ve·ry gr,eat change m world economics is inevieable when 'the accumulated stocks of coal and, oil are ex ... nausted,. In the seale of human lives this will of course be a gradual process, marked by their slowly gro'wing rarer, but on the: scale: of a" million, years the crisis is practically with us already. W'e ,sha]] have ,spent [he capit'aI accumulations of hundreds of millions of y'ears", and after' rhat we shall have to liv on out' income. Bverydring dep,ends on whether a substitute c~"- b~

foun,~ which provj.~~s, ,power out 0'£ incom ar anydl1n,B like the rate at 'which we are now getting it out o'i capital ..

In an earlier chapter' I _ have reviewed thepossible sources of en,er,gy,Mm the conclusion that none are going to yield it, UP' easily, Theenergy is there in sum ... c~ent: ql.l,an'tiry. but, it w~ tak,e an eD.Orm01.1S, organiza~ don to get_ it inC? usable form" A v,ery much greater :fraction of mankind will 'be needed. to mind the machines, than are at present' needed to get the coal ,QU,t of 'the mines, And there is mocilcr difficulty which may ans. " If it sho'uid pr(Jve itn:pf,actiable to get the eDer~ dire-cdy from, sunlight, there is the pouihillty of gertiitg

116

T,H! HIST'QllY

it by th intensive: growing of vegetables. SIlY by turning potatoes into industrial alcohol. But iftllcr ' is always to be ,11'llar:gm of stu,:ing humanity. is, it not prob31ble- that .~~ potatoes,.wUl all have, ,ro beea~=~ before ever they a.~e all0:wed 'to re~ch the d1stiUeries?' A neces'sary condi .. tlo.nrh~ f~r g' ?ttmg lenergy out of vegetables is that it sho~d. be fo~d p'~ssible to grow the, 'veg,etables 'Under' condI~~ons where' t~ley: do not require soilthat might be' used directly fo,r food production,

To, provide energy on the sort of scale to which we are accustomed will call for 31 ve·ry elaborate organiaation, a ~reat, many machines" and ,great many people to, mind those machines, En view of me shortsi,ghtedn,ess and unreliability of human nature, it seems rather unlikdy that any process of this kind could bem~de- 'to work on a world-wide scale' for century aft'er ceng,uy .. But itdoes see~'Vcr:y possible that some part of" the plan should be carried out, ,50. ,iliar there should be a consider,able' supplementation to the'large amount of energy we' alrcad~ get from W,:ltte'r power, which does of course provide energy out of income

The general picture of the' economic condition of the world then is that the chief centres 10£ powe'r production, a.n~ so of the most elaborate civilization. will be the re,g10n~ where there is water power~ that is sp,cakiug r'ach.elloosely.~ mountainous regions, It will be these tha.t are .du:' cent~es of manufacture, and they will exchange the~r' ~nufiu:tur,es for the surplus food produced in the agricultural regions, There will also be large "power

,I:'; 'n' • '. - .'

z:rms . m ~ario,~ parts of the wOIld~stOling leDergy,

either by s'ome direct mechanism. or through the int,er-

187 -

THE NEXT MIlLI'ON YEARS

mediary of vegetables, It may be guesse,d that it will be what 1 may call the mountaineers, who possess the l'llOst readily available eneI'gy" who will becorne dominant; through their wealth they will tend te have the highO),t culture, since culture most easily comes from the leisure created by wealth. It will be they who will tcnd to rule the world on aCCQWlt of their economic advantages, and tojudge by most past experience they will be hated by the others for it~

There ~ be the .same sere of contest of interests b~ tween the mountaineers and the pJam..dwelling agricillturists~as there is even now between town and countr)t. Most of the time the mountaineer will have theadvan~atge~ but the farmer being the food producer is b01.Uld to have the' 'advantage in rimes offamin;e, which will [lOot 'be infreq uenr, ,And there will he parts ~f the world ~,{t relapse frankly into barbarism; they will be. the less fer .... , tile regions which could not' produce much food, sothat the more civilized people would get no advantage fro~ explOiting them. But, there will be other regions w~~, also .... e lapse in 'fr'o h"'1"b, .... uism _ though Ll:"e fenlliru'. - of .the

aJ~, JL'Mi.,;. Q. L 'iJl~ . _. ~u _,~I.GJl" ," .. " -_._ - . ;""'." ;UJ,. . ~ ~'l

so.il could support a greater population than it in fact bea.rs., It is tobe expected that such a state of affairs wm not uSllally be tolerated. ~y the civilized countries, who will conquerthem.jmd export their ownstarving Dlar-~,

gins, to fill 'up 'the vacant places. ,

I canmake no claim at all to anything but the mas~_ superficial knowledge of the lti,ghly techni~al s'ubJect ~f p\11t~~e lec0nQ:(nics" and the: following speculations must be Iea~ in thelight of this defecnveknowledge. In me econ~ omics of" exchange I will not conjecture" what sort ,of

1_,88

'THE HISTORY

medium win be used, Themetallurgical 'value of gold i· norvery great, and its myseical value' is dcad~ to that it i1,. not to be expected t11:at it will survive. It would seem dlat in the long run 'there- is likely '[0 be 'Some 'uf~c(;,}11t,rollab',le

d+ f'c-- ~1 i::._..... ~ • ., h' f

me aum ,0 Value, IliJhctlonmg m r ie same sort 0 man-

ner tha,t gold used to do, ins,tead of the present manipu .... Iated systems which are so liable to politica.lfibuse:. Though no doubt there will be variarionsthroughthe ages, it is hard to think of anything having :9. greater' simplicity thana monetary system and. therefore pre .... sumably that will prevail most of-the time, It is quite safe to say 'chat there will always be' rich and POQ'['. Wealth will be' the mark of SllCCeS,$" and so the abler people will tend to he found among' dle wealthy, hut there will always he many ;among them of 3: far less estimable character'. These are ,the people who are interested not ill the work- but only in 'the reward, and they will all too often succeed in gaining it in a variety of discreditable ways, such as by carrying £avoW" with an autocrat.

As tome less successful members, the standard of living of any community living on its real earnings, as 'We communities of the future will have to do" is inevitably lower than that of one rapidly $,pending the savings of hundreds of millions. of ye'al'S as we are doing now, There will also be the' frequen,tdlre,a't of starvation, which will operate against the least'efficient members of every community with special fotce, &0 that it may be expected that thecondltions cftheir work will be much more severe than at present, Even now we see that a low standard of living in onec:ounrry has. 'me advantage in competing a,gams,! a higll standard in another ~ Ifthere is:

189

TH,B 'NEXT MILLION y'EARS

work to 'be done" and, of'rwo men of equal quality!" on is, willing to' do it for less pay than the other, in the' Iong run it will he he who gets the work to do, Those: w.ho find the bad conditions, ~upporrable will be willing to work huder and for less reward; in a broad sense of the term they arc more efficient than the others, becans they get moredone for less pay.,_There are of c~ur5 ' many exceptions, for rea] skill will get its reward; but in the' longrun it is inevi~able thar the lo~'e:' ryp~S! of labour 'will have an exceedingly precarious life, One of the triumphs, ,of QU[own golden (l,ge' has been "~t slavery has been abolished over a, great part of the earrh, It is difficult to see how this condition can be nlaintained, in the hard world of the t1.1ture with its, starving marsUul" and it is to be feared that all too oft'el1 a fraction f) humanity will have to live in a state which, whatever it may be called, will be indistinguishable from da"Vifl:! ..

P'OLITICS

In 'me political sphere it must be recognized tIl,ar: there have always heena. great many different form'&. Df government which have shown that tb~y can 'wo:k, in practice, and so it is to be expected mat the same ,will b 'true in the fumre .. The world will be ::1 sort of museum e

th do' f- ulin ankind T"h" ill" b

different met 0_ S 0 run g manzma. - iere W'_, I.

autocracks, oligarchies" bureaucracies, democrsd • theocracies 'and even 'peaceful anarchies, and no d,ou ,t each of them will produce a special political ,philos:ophy intended to justify its own procedure against all r.ivrus. In such a variety it is not possible [0 foresee any d~tiQ· • and I shan only touch on a. fe,wgen,eralities'l

190

THE HlSTORY

Whatevet forms the government may take, there can be little doubt that the world will spontaneously divicle itself into what I sh.all call provinces, that is 'to say regions .. [hough with no permanently fixed boundaries, which possess some homogeneity of climate, character and interests. I use' ,the same word whether the differ,ent provinces a're fed.erated together, or whether they are what we should now call sep,ar,ate sovereign stares. How large will these provinces tend tal be? That will depend o,n the means of commnnicadcn and transport, and so once again there arises the Iques'fior.t of whether the fuel problem is solved whcll y or partially or not a'[ all .. In the past the chief means of communication was, the horse, and the countries of Europe are still mo,sdy of B, size adapted to suit this almost extinctmeans of rr:ll1.,port., though some of the mor ' newly formed ones do show a 'trace 'of the influence of ' the railway., None of them, are reall y of a size suited to the motor-car or the aeroplane, or to' present power produedon, whed1er by coal or w,arer-po'wer, which cuts right across the national boundaries,

If the fuel problem is, solved completely, so that mechanical 'p0i'\V er and transportation is available in the futuro to a greater extenteventhan at present, then the provinces will be large; for example, the whole of Europe may w,eU be - one" and the whole of North America mother ~ Even if no solution were FOtUla to 'the fuel pro bl;em" the wo:dd would not revert to its old eonditiens, because, even if transpcreation became' difficult, intercommunicarion would still be e.-asy by telegraph The, horse nU,ght become important agaw1 :md

IgI

TI-:I,E NEXT MILLION YE"ARS

-- - .

at ,I ,guess 'the provinceswould tend to be about as, lar:gc ali: the present -countries of Europe. In this case, with it$, gte,ady increased fu:tllIe population~, N,orthAmericl might be expected. to break: up into a dozen provinces or so .. My own conjecture about fuel has been ~J;t

L~:~ - '_j!._ iI' 1 h · rh .

sometnmg :1l1termew.atc'w· .appen, nr m at' power

supplies, ~ not he as ,easy as they are now" but 'that by greatly increased effort 'they will, be broughrto something not very fat below 'the: present level. In this, case North America might fau into four or five provinceSi and western Burope inro one or t\VO'; it is never robe expected that there will b,elll1,y permanence about the numbers of them or about their boundaries.

Consider next what are likely 'to, be usual relarions between the provinces" It is too much to expecttha( there can ever be a permanent world governrnent benevolently 'treating all of 'them on a, perfect equality'; s;Ddl an institution Gould only work during, the' rare oc-easiol1s ofa. world-wide golden ,age,. To think of it as, possible at other times is a. misunderstanding of the function leE government in any practical sense of the term. If the lonly things dlat a ,gov,erntrum'r 'was required to' doweR what everybody, or nearly everybody" wanted, there would be no. need for the' government 'to exist ,3,t all, because the things would be done anyhow; this wo,tdd

L th . ,', 'b1 • d 1 f· ... L .L.,'::. B" if ",:L -

be t , .e tmpracncat Je 1 ear 0\ we' anarctnst, ,ut .. 'welt;

uo, to b · ...... ;,;.,rh"f'-·, '.- .', .'-_'- . ·f·, ,___,1_·".·,O .. ··-c in most pc'af"~ ate _ 0 e ,S,uu If ..u..l_g margllU 0 po pwa;\.l n '- . ·c.· .' _:_ '" I .. : .. ~

of the world; mere benevolence cannot suffice. There would inevitably be ill fe,cling- and jealo1Jsy between, the

• i' .. 1. ~'L b _.1.: • ...:L • '.

,provmces", witn escn ieuevmg tnat It was no'[ gettmg

its fair share of the good. 'things, and in flct,~ it would. be 1'92

THE. l-II.STORY

lik.e me state of affitirs, with which we are all tOO familiar ~ If then there is ever to be a world govemmenrc, it will have: '[0 fimclion as -governmen't), do now, in the sense that i~ will have to coerce a_minority--a.nd indeed ic may of tal be a m;~,j om;iry-m,to doing things ,they do not 'want to.do.

I In the light of these considerations it is to be expected t~a.t a. single govclUJ:!len-t of the earth will nor arise very frc'quen'tly., Most of the rime the provinces will be nearly independent states" which form alliances' wim one another so. 3S '~O compete against rival alliances. It will. 'be the old story of power politics, again. Now and then 'at Napoleon may arise, MId unite _ some of the stronger provinces~ and with theirhelp he may overcome thee rest'. For a == he' will form an, unquiet world governmell:_t, but after a time his dynasty, will ,decay and the world. will go back '[0 the condition of [he contending provinces, .. Here again much depends, on the fuel problem, If transponationis easy 3, world conquest will be easier both fo[" military reason's and he cause the more uniform culture should make the world government more acceptable,

For the go,vemmellt' of 'the separate provinces it is no use hoping that. democracy could often be possible, for 'the very simple reason that a hungry man will vote :for his next meal, radier than for reasons ·of state. Even at the presenr time the srtempe ro import demo-cr,a:tic institutions, intopovercy-stricken countries has been a, failure' .. , A necessary condition fo1' demo-cracy is wealrh J and- the wealth must not be concenrrared in 'too few hmd$: the lack. of this diffusion of w'eal'th is the reason

N 19']

THE NE,XT' MILL,ION YEAR'S

why some rich countries, such as imperial Rome" CaU . to give democracy to their peoples. Widespread wealtb can never be common in an overcrowded 'world" a.nd so in mos,'[ countries of 'the future thl= g'0vemmene vrilI inevil:ably be: aut'ocr,acic or oli'-'afcbic,: some will _: '

Q - d, ,'ovemmen't' and, some 'b'dl and the giOO I :_

'Oil' b-,dness will depend, much more on 'me perse ' me:rirs o,f the Mer-J, than .ilr -~_, in ,I more democratic c'Qantry. Ocas,io,naDy through eonquest, ,o~ p~l"hBpS through 'heiDg £itst in the field with a new diJcovcryt, s,ome region willexperienee a, golden age, and it ma1 -.....as, ····1, ourselve have succeeded m ,doingdevlelop 'folr I, tim' a system of true d. mOC1"abC inseiturions,

IODI ',of'th= chief mstram,en:rs of polidcs is, war:" s:oltbar it is proper '['01 consider what th. fu:ture of warfare i,Ji)Qiy tDI be, in this, thr,eis a quesdon o:fthe' most gen, I_I importance tOI 'be consldered first; it is, whether the ,attack or the defence is likel.y ec be me' stronger 01, puttiJ,]g it figuratively. whether the cavalry '01 the me - ,.,." ~- .0' rule 'me battlefield Th- I!l!l importance of chIan .... I 15 ~= r·..... . ~- d,l:l:.U;:U' IJ.. . I., , .' . _iliYot.' - - - - . I;i

qu,cscion may 'bit: seen :mom past lu'st,o'ry" Afirer the decay ,of ttb.- '. o,man Empir , 'We supeeioriry 10£ the lea,v _. c Iedto mO'I1 than, five hundred. y'_- . rs of barbarism in E,urop·, during which rurb,ulent ~, ~,gl~lfS, in armor , possessing: li'tde merit hut a narrow :skill in ~le we ~r their arms, could hOlld the world I~,O ranscm. They nwly I,llccec:ded in Idestro~g 'the las,t surviving yesti,g. of civUizatio,n. and it was only later I through the creation of org;mj?;c,d armi s, helped by the invention of ,gDDpo,w,d, . ~ that d~t~ infmtty ag,ain becamethe predor '.~, -- ,- t

'aml.. A£~a' this it became unpr,06tab,:te to IClDDdtL r

Ig·,··

. "

·8 HISTORY

- ggtessiv, war' in the irrs,pomible mann ' mat had been .piro:6table' esrli r, and with this change gradually arde! and civilization Icould return to western Europe ..

In very recent timl cbere bas b· threat tbr once

a 'am 'the cav -, I in rthe form of tb . - and the ,-roplan Jl might com sup ·0[' to th iDEantry., Th_ - ---ger is b,y DO mea . lover" but the ,~.p rienee of £h,e recentwar do -5 su· gear, rather ('ontrary 'to exp -cta~, dons~, that m- infan'try still re'ig,1}J on me b,atdfield. However, 'filer is a stronger reason which seems to s,atf,gaard til· U'fur _ of civilization feolM d :struction by the cavalry. This is, that it calls fo.r a VI-ry hl b piech of civilization to make a tank or an aeroplane .. It: .is by 1],0 means 'Lmlikely mal'c' at some timeor other ODe ,ofdu: w'orld,t s pf10vinc . 'may 'e&b.blish imdf as ,I, military

"u'tacracy and conqu r the rest of'rb' erld, but to b succ=-cful it w,ould hay to b~md ItO, stay~ar ml- " .. _1 .

of civilization. So it seems unlikely that; in the future, civilizadon will he' direcdy destroyed by war f as it W'aI, in the Dark Ag,es ..

. s to what WI pODS will be used it, war, m sch will of COUf!'e depe d an bow far 'the fu_ "rlohl m '. ,.=011. dbut perhaps Ie 5 ,tb in other fi=lds: of ,actiVHyI becans a rmies and n 'viys claim, and usually r 'C:ciViC'., the highest prioriry in, the s:atis&ctioD ,of their' demmds~, Ir is, 10 be' preslUn,d rha'c existin,g weapom will be im.~ proved, that this will 'be true of both offensive and do'fensivc' ones, and that on the whole in the loa run the improvements will cancel our, It might be thought naruralfof' m ,t spr _,Ware OD the fu'ruce of the' aeom bomb, 'burl ,shaH D,O· do so here, as it is roe ',lfly eo form

19'5

THE, ,NEXT Mll,LI'O'N YEARS

a aiticallopinion~ Wbenev,er 3" new weapon is. inv,cumed •. a :surge of unreasoning' homof .g dmolll,gh rhe world, wInch 'bas J'i'ttlerdatio:n 'EO the wca,poD·'S absolute valde~ 'This, was :510 at 'm,c time of the in,troducldon of gas-warfue; 'which military, ,opinion DO'W tends to regard :31 an, inferio,r weapon, and though the at-om bomb must be accepted as fir more important, there has D,Ct ye:t been rime to assess it pro'pedy. The same is true of the various forms, of biological warfare that have been considered, and no doubt 'there ,will be other wholly new weapons invented from time rOI time .. All'wese weapons will mIc:r~-' " tb,e destrucriveness ofwu., hur it must not be :£or-, gott . _ that ,at the sametim there will also be InVit!D'bODS which ,mcr,eue the I'ccuperariv'~' powler 'of the def,eooe.~

There are two rather differ,_-nt incentives that lead to w,ar. 'One is, fanati'rum" 'c1u! other self~int!e[lest,., F,ma:acal w,ar have been rather rare, and fortunatelyso~ since 'Under the stimulusof a. fanatical creed man is, ready "0 inflict" and also 'to suffer, bru talitiCi!S to a degree that 'w'olllid hardly be believed possible by those who do no,'£ share the creed. It ls, eo 'be ",.pecred ,hat' ;at intervals mere ,will a,g:ain he such wars~ In an over-populated world i,t is in~-vitable' that there will be a gr~- re ~ callousness ab,out human liti 't and so' it is, m be expl ~ed 'tha,I' their ferocity

be increased, perhaps, even b. yond the rather hi:gh _ tandardthat has, been set byrhe religious, 'w,ars; of the ,p,ast. 'Wan s,timulatled, by dJe~ mildier ,mlotiVie of :seJt: m, est may well be more frequent. Here 'the mcentiVie will o&en be lmd-bunger" ,the 'whit eo find land fO:t ,3 provm.cels s,t'2IVing; margin at the xpense of another 'province .. In 'view of the cheapened value of human life

190

TilE HIST'OIa. y

,Eblen: is llittle likelihood 'ilia,l dl,e hostile population ,will be treated in. a more humane Dl3.DD-r' than has been 'tb'e euseom in me pas,t, 'but i,t will ee to the interest 'Df'tfte ,~n~ue[1olr [01 OCCUPY' rb,e ICO- "y"s,_lm,d vrid1:0UI[ desU10Ying it~ 'This means 'dllt many of dle mo,st .des,ttuctive we pons would not be wed" neithr die atom bo,mb 'which mi;ght make .'the ground 'wtinhabitahle' for years, ~or biological Wru:fIIC" in any fO·,rm which might have rhe effect of mUing it, permanently infeltile'., This, C'OIlsidra;tion may moderate the e'viJ :tfects of war to ,01, small extent, but, rezarded '.' en -r,aJly" dlcr-e is no reason to foresee that war in the furure \ViR be any less dreadfUl:

el ..~ b ,'L_

an ] r nas I see n in rne f'3S,t,.,

,CEVllJ,ZATJ:ON

. I r will, mJakl~ 3. fir,ting end 'to my essa,y to consider the futur,e of civilization; wllle,tll,er' it will endure, pennan,endy rising to ,stillgreat'er heights, or whether it :is destined to decay after a period of efflorescence" as has happened to so many eivilizations in the past, Thou.gh we shQuld ,ill agree rather 'vagLlJy as co what we' :mean bly civilizario'o'" different people may regard very diE;.. , '- r nr asp em of it as the cenrcal featu[I,., 'T:o some ir may mean principally great ,developm~D, : in art of'lirera;bm CI 'ID others, well~mp'ped cities and house .' leo othen a good s,ystclll of l~,w .001 others d· . p Jeamib~gJ' and to others ,g,Qod social,oondi'tions,. ,I' do nO'lldispute that all

r":'L be i 1 rl b

or aDy ormese may t e lIlVO ve· ,.' . ut countries could be

named, 'which, everyone 'would concede were ci'VilimCl, yet 'which have conspicuously lacked some of these lex ... , ceUences. So fo:r wane of a. general d'c£nliti.oD, the best

197'

THE NEXT MILLl.ON 'YE,A,RS

w,ay I can describe wha,t seems to me to be involved.is by citing an example nom the past, the ,civilizatio,n of China.

The Chines Empin~' has been civili2ea ro.r over eheee thousand Y'etfi, and until very recent times; bas lenjoyed a very fair easure of isolation, Broadly speaking, during all that time it bas retained 'the same general charaeteristies, [t has been ruled by a succession of dyuasti rising and decaying in tum. During th periods, of decay" the pro,vinccs have often' been pracd,cally independent. conducting w rfare withone another, until at length a new :strong hand has arisen. to centrol rhem, In its furms ,of'g,Qvemmcnt it is nue chat China . ms n Vet EO havp.f,o-duced anything like Buropean democracy, bat dtis lack is olE,r by the creation of ,_ highly organized ,civil service. n.o'[ m,erely centuries but millennia 'before: ,anyd1in.g of th kind existed in Europe, ,All the time the general character of 'me civilization has been preserved. 110W in one place, now in another, Sometimes it bas been advanced by important [leW discoveries, such. a's the inve nrion fprinting .. All tll_ rime dl' 'f' has hem " liability 'to' funines. which have killed off millions, The perp wd pll ~ . ,ce' of margin of sr ~ .. -'g, humani_ _ bas 5 r " low v,aloe on human, life, ' _ d "has made for ~oumess in f,egard '£01 the sufferings, of rhe pe-opl,e. 'This has led rOI much cruelty. of a kind we are unfamiliar with DOW I' rtb'oug.h it could have been matched anywhere in Europe: few centuries ago. There have been golden ages. when the arb have ftourished ~.S nowhere else on le3nh, and eep learning has been achieved, which we o,nIy do 'DOt reverence :50 much 3_S do the Chinese, he-

198

Tl-IE KIST,OR. Y'

~a'use it bas 'run rather a dUferent colour frlOm our own; hut even in this w 'have to concede th.art rh·, llfucian phaosophy has, lasted far longer than any of the l'lill.o .... sophies of th ' W',r. Ir ould seem that in its c nsrancy 'of character, both in its virtues and in its d reCUt the Chinese civili , .. ,. is ,t be accepted as eh mod _- ty - e

of a ,civilizar.i n to a greater degree than any ,ofdle other

civilizations ofdl orJd ..

III the mann r in which it bas retained in, individual character permanently the Chinese civilization seems pre-eminent, but: of course others too have survived foI' Iquite long periods. The Roman civilization, though it eli d in the W SC~, 'Was, preserved in a modified form for nearly a wous _' id y M"S Iooger in the East. In the same loose sense the Mes potamian civilization 35' - erved by ~eArabs at H':l 'hdad. unril .. r was ov _ rthrown h,y the Turks, and ev ' _ so it survived in Egypt and in Spain. There have not been ,agrc;at many different civiliza,ticns, in all. _10 d13t ir is, not very ,safe to- generaliz '; but admi:t .... ring that some have disappeared leaving 11'01 heirs, still the genet,a! conclusion most be that in the maip therehas been ,at lease seme survival if_not in the pbce ,aforigin, then els'e here, Howey er, that may be, 'our present ~~ilizatioll is in an incompara.'bly stronger PO'SirioH1, for It IS: dominated by m, Scierrti6c Rev()liuriOID, which. as I have [tied to _show. makes it basi.cally different· from aU previous, civilizations ..

. ~The Scientific Revolutiea hal introduced, ways of thinking,. which em claim ,3 qua1_jty of universality, be,taU'Se~ey are obj1ectiv -' and nearly ind,ependent of aesthetic tastes. Even DOW the oommunity of seiendsts is

199

•

'THE NEXT MILLl'ON YEA.RS

quite mtematiolnaJ" SOl that 'they lean discuss together the mareers 'that concern rbl_'m wimo,ur any thought of nation3.i,or r,a.,cia!,dif[erieDCiCS. This 'has never been true 10£ Ideas in alt. philosophy lor religion, For example, the learned of Europe and til ' l,camed of 'China e~u:h reven-

I nee 'rheir own classical literature profoundly, but neither' values' very hlgllly 'me classics of the other; whereas in their own su~ject the scientists of the whole world cannot help valuing cite same 'things. If he is thinking, say" about an electric urrenr, an educated lenttal African vtill. ,go' 'through the same P'[ocesses: of th,ologh[ as an educated Englli:'hman" and DO, diffe[,ence in eheir aesthetic tastes, will make '.1-' Y diKermce :b,Ctw'OOD th,_ m in 'this,. The Scientific Revolurien has chan;gc4 the

.orid materiallyin Innumerable 'ways; but perhaps 'the most important ,of all is, th .c it bias provided a universality in methods of thought tha.t was wanting before, :SOl there ism even stronger reason to believe! that the D·=W culeure cannot die, than ever held for any of the o,ld civilizations;, it, has only got to sl1rVi:ve in 'one part of the earth f(')'f it tOI be, recoverable everywhere, .Ev'eIl rh Qlld civilizariU1l5 SurriV1 d fOlf th.e most P'aIt. and it can 'be Irf!O".ar.ded as, ccr-tam, 'that 'me new' culture will be

'~I

in ~'n tII'·'~':s,-L~~le··

i ...... I~~=-bU& ,1JaJD I' '.

A. 'm.uch more df8j,culr qu - ., nOll 10 answer is , .. -I,

IqUestiIDD, wbeither ,civili7~tiou will he. [ie:tainred, widUn tb_ sam ~ races, or wh,etb _ r tber, , will .havs to be a perp.:.tual renewal from more barbaric sources, W,estlerft Europe, which largely provided, the barbarianswho eecreated the Roman civilization, is iueIf at the present time ,in imminent danger of committing saicide, MUSiC

2'00

THE nrs i R-_

civilization always I,ead tothe li

ICOns_ot decay an I - - .=--.t, __ ~'r . - -_ I"

'-,Iources which in rum ill ~I tin'll h the' same I. x-perieac :? The new' Idev, I'· ·01-n in bi tb- . ntn 1

.d]~, thfi~ ·t a great Ideal In· "I: '. obI I - " s.; - - - ], n

run I do not dlink tha,'t ir is, t I he feared. Th -r~ ,~e' already Inany people wi:rb _ narural inst:intctiv • wisl1 ·oc children, ,a~,d this wish is sometimes strong enough t, QutlVei,8,h the economic disadv'-"Dta.8'c whic.hWldou]J'm ... , edly ,at pres~tattachei 'to havin:g :l_famUy .. Such people will tend to h,ave ,larger fa:milies than the resr, and, in dOling so' will at least 'lOI some extent hand on the sam insrincriv,e vrisbto a gli rer num r in the nett genera~on~"As I havI~ already argue~, 'ell limitanon of popula'bOD IS an unstable P'[iOCesI, wbicl e lmo'rp. rsist, It Is very conjectural how long the reansformation will take, but :" 1, [hie ,ch~e that is, rllecld' d in the baman,cc ofhu'maJl sentiments is very slight, ir scents likely that the new balance will no,~ take ver;r long to be established, perhaps thousands of yelts, but 00'1: bW:ldreds of,tho'UJIl1.ds. The flr's:t nation Dr race which can keepl its civi.liza:tio'n, and at the same time ,superpose OD. it ,this change in the balance of imtincrs, 'wiI1l have the: a,dvanJlg,'~ DrYer a~l o,the:[s~1 'bo'dI, 'th ' civiU2cd races, £hat lack th instinct and the bar'blmmswho hav,c Dot nee .m it for ,th-u' survival 'This Dation will in conseqnenee do:miDac;e' the WIOr!id,.,

In the' establishment of perm ~.~ - 'dy civilized races; the' m?5'1 ~plortant contrel will be' this smdlIchangein rhe balance of,human, iluDncit&, because ir will have become inherent UI tbe race's nature, and will nor need. 'to, be taught tOI each succeeding genration. But, it will he:

2DI

'tIE NEXT Ml LION YEA -' S

h -1ped, and might be much accelerated if ere as should ms',: workin, in the same direction. III the hiSltolry of mankind creeds will continue to b- of very great-,imporlance. Amongthe most impolrmn til, re will alw_ ':fi-

b th creeds, which without undue fanaticism. incu1-

, _ Ite ~ trong sense of social ,obligation since it is only throu h such creeds that life ls possible in crowded comn1Wlides. There will also no doubt oft n be' &m:t", ' I creeds to distur'b the peace' of the w,ol:ld" and there will b ' om ers to comfort th world. I shall not attempt Ito c-onjectur~ what the tenets of these last will be; ,their main function is (10 act as a sola - to rheir believers in the v' ry 'bI ak world 1 have d. scribed, It is ,only this that

I Ike" the w,orid 1011- rable fo,[ many people" and this - '0,be m ch mar 'true in times, of f,' at h - -- dship, 'than in peno .ofr a ively easy P[OSP 'riry like [he present ..

. ~he detailed march of llisto'ry will depend a gr "', 'r de I on th_ creeds, held by tile various branches of the bun-an race. It cannot he presumed with. any confidenc' , that purely s'Up~rstidou.s creeds will always be rejected

b . _"j' d .... f 1 d- .

Y ci vuise ., commw--uo,es, m V1C'W _ r l.e exrraor .. m,ary

,credulity 'shown even DIOW by many r,e',purcldly,educated people,. It is, au - rhat ehere may nee be many at 'the pli=-'eDt ri ~1_., whose actions Hie guided by an inspecti.oD of the ntrails of a s.aai6dlal bull, bur the p.rolgress 'b '

nor b ea very ,great" for there are stUI many believen in palmistIY or astrology, It is to, be expecced rh . that in rh r : futurcl, as in the past" th re will be superstieions whichwill not~hly affi ct the course of histo:cy. andsem - of them, such as ane . 50r-wlorship, will haV'E direcrlie s on the devdopm' _ I: of the human specie ~

2tOZ