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not disturbed by manifestly bullish or bearish hold the strength yesterday but rallying overnight a bit
supply/demand changes, allowing the markets to focus on hopes that the IEA will offer up something positive
upon in its monthly report today.
09/10 09/09 The DOE figures yesterday were not far from what had
Gold 1248.8 1255.0 - 6.20
been expected. Crude oil inventories fell 1.9 million
Silver 19.84 19.84 unch
Pallad 521.00 520.00 + 1.00 barrels, less that the -7.3 million barrels that the API
said had been lost, but close to what we had thought rather perfectly with the well defined trend line
likely. However, distillates and gasoline inventories fell evidenced in the chart this page. If November Brent is
very slightly… -0.4 million for the former and -0.2 able to rally upward toward 78.40-78.50 today we shall
million barrels for the latter, leaving the aggregated be a seller.
inventory falling -2.5 million barrels. Interestingly, as .
the contango in WTI has gone out wildly in the past SHARE PRICES ARE AGAIN VERY
several weeks, inventories at Cushing, the delivery
point actually fell rather markedly. This we found at
MODESTLY HIGHER but we note that half
least passingly interesting. Finally, and according to of the markets that comprise our Index are higher and
our friend Tim Evans at Citi Futures, total aggregated half are lower in the past twenty four hours and that the
inventories now cover 58.2 days of supply. This is 2.0 volume on the rally this week has been light
days more than existed a year ago and a stunning 8.1 everywhere. It has been light in Asia; it has been light
days more than the five year average. in Europe and it has been uncommonly light in N.
America, casting collective doubt upon the
The market accepted the numbers bullishly for the sustainability of this strength. Further, this is that
shortest of times but then was hit by the OPEC period of time between Rosh Hashanah and Yom
monthly supply/demand report. OPEC left its Kippur when prices do have a marked tendency to
expectation for global demand for crude “broadly weaken, and we cannot “shake” the concerns that the
unchanged,” whatever that means; however, the cartel recent “Hindenburg” signals have engendered. We
did suggest that non-OPEC supplies of crude might tend, on balance, to view investment in equities in
increase. Interestingly when looking a bit more closely generally modestly bearish terms at this point and we
at their numbers, OPEC said that global demand for find ourselves setting up our positions cast quietly in
their crude next year shall average 28.84 mbpd, which that fashion. It shall not take much, however, to cast us
they consider “broadly unchanged,” but at the same more visibly bearish:
time they continue to hold to their own production
estimates of 29.15 mbpd. In other words, their own Dow Indus up 28 10,415
CanS&P/TSE down 8 12,034
supply is .31 million bpd more than their own forecast FTSE up 64 5,494
demand. This cannot be spun as anything other than CAC up 45 3,722
modestly bearish of prices. Remember then that DAX up 58 6,222
NIKKEI up 141 9,239
OPEC’s next meeting is October 13th and remember HangSeng down 46 21,159
further that the IEA will release its supply/demand AusSP/ASX down 18 4,560
figures sometime later today. Shanghai down 3 2,664
Brazil up 217 66,624
TGL INDEX up 0.2% 7,615
Due to a technical problem we are unable to report our
usual term structure format here this morning, but we ON THE POLITICAL FRONT the elections
shall do so on Monday:
in November, barring some truly stupid series of
statements from a number of Republican candidates…
Nov WTI down 76.65-71
and never, ever under-estimate this possibility for the
OPEC Basket $74.04 09/08
Right has proven time and time again its seeming
Henry Hub Nat-gas $3.81
congenital ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of
We have been waiting, patiently, upon the sidelines, victory… the Republicans should sweep to control of
wishing to sell into a strong rally in crude and we now the House and may even sweep to the control of the
have our target as November Brent has rallied right Senate, giving us our favourite government of all: grid-
into “The Box” that marks the 50-62% retracement of lock. The latest data shows that the Republicans are
the previous leg downward and as that “Box” aligns actually taking the lead when it comes to the most
important fact of all: money. Money drives elections, behind-the-throne, a political methodology he learned
and heretofore the Republicans have lagged behind at the knee of Mr. Shin Kanemaru, his mentor and a
the Democrats rather badly. gentleman who did precisely that for decades.
However, Ozawa has had his eye upon the prize for so
According to a Wall Street Journal analysis of FEC long that we cannot imagine him doing anything other
filings over the past two years of the 34 most than taking the Prime Minister’s role… even if only for
competitive House races, back in early ’09, the the shortest of times. Tuesday’s vote shall be
Democrats led the Republicans by more than 4:1. By interesting then… very.
late ’09, the Democrats still led by approximately 1.5:1.
By early ’10, the Democrats still led, but by “only” by GENERAL COMMENTS
about 1.3:1. Finally, in recent weeks the Republicans
have taken the lead over the Democrats. Both parties
ON THE CAPITAL MARKET
have of course seen the sums of money flowing into
the coffers rising sharply… for the Democrats, for IT’S ALL ABOUT RULES: We listened to
example, in the races in question, a year ago the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St.
contributions were just a bit more than $3 million; Louis… the home of Monetarist economics in the US…
recently they’ve swelled to just over $12 million; for the yesterday and he brought up something we thought
Republicans contributions have swelled from less than quite important: a “rule” for monetary policy is needed
$1 million to well over $12 million!...but the and “shock and awe” is not. We could not agree more.
Republicans have taken the lead as the polls have
gone in their favour. Contributors “bet” with the winner; In The Journal yesterday, several of the most important
it’s a proven fact. economists of the age gave their opinions on what the
US Federal Reserve should to going forward and the
Next Tuesday, the leadership and the rank-and-file of two thoughts that seemed most reasonable to us were
the Democratic Party of Japan will vote for the Party’s those put forth by Professor John Taylor and Dr. Allan
leader. The vote, as everyone should know by now is Meltzer. Both men advocated a “rule based policy” that
between the current Prime Minister, Mr. Kan, and the should be relied upon week in and week out; month in
“Old Guard” political Machiavellian, Mr. Ichiro Ozawa. and month out. Dr. Taylor is of course famous for his
The winner will be the Prime Minister and although the “Taylor Rule,” which as he said is simply the idea that
odds still favour Mr. Kan remaining in power, one can the Fed’s target interest rate “should be one and a half
never... ever… count Mr. Ozawa out. Ozawa has had times the inflation rate, plus one half times the shortfall
control of the Party’s purse-strings for years, and he of GDP from potential, plus one.” We will not argue the
commands the support of many within the party who efficacy nor wisdom of Dr. Taylor’s rule, leaving that to
are beholden to him for their past political successes. others far wiser than we. But we like the idea of a rule
We note then that former Prime Minister Hatoyama that takes the “human factor” out of the Fed’s policies.
said recently that he “became Prime Minister thanks to The basis of Dr. Taylor’s “rule” is simply that
Mr. Ichiro Ozawa’s gracious guidance. I must repay consistency over time trumps inconsistency when
him.” It is that sort of allegiance that keeps Mr. applied to monetary policy. This we find difficult, if not
Ozawa’s long standing hope of becoming Prime impossible, to argue with.
Minister alive and it is the reason why we have to look
upon Tuesday’s vote as closer than most think. Dr. Meltzer said, in summary, that
If Ozawa were to win the leadership role it is possible There is very little that the Fed can do to
change the near-term, but it can have
too that he might stand aside from the Prime Minister’s
important influence on the future. The Fed has
post and allow someone from another party to become sacrificed much of its independence during this
Prime Minister, allowing Ozawa to be the real power- crisis by helping the Treasury carry out fiscal
policy. Adopting and following a rule, like the stopped; why not print tens… nay, hundreds of
Taylor rule, is an effective way to regain billions… nay trillions upon trillions… of food stamps
independence.
and put them into the hands of everyone, everywhere.
Mr. Bullard made essentially the same point. A rule And why stop with the citizens of the US; let’s give food
based monetary policy that can only be over-ruled in stamps to Canadians, to European visitors, to illegal
the most rare of circumstances would indeed do much aliens and potential illegal aliens. Reductio ad
to establish trust in the system, restore faith in the Fed, absurdum; print food stands and wait for the $1.74
establish greater faith in the dollar and create long growth of GDP per dollar. In Trumka-land it is that
term, low inflation, high employment economic growth. easy. We just had no idea; how stupid of us. How’d we
But then again, we are dreamers here. miss that?
Twenty six weeks ago we bought the A$ and we sold the EUR at or The CIBC Gartman Global Allocation Notes portfolio for
th
near .6417. We added to the trade Tuesday, August 24 and this September is as follows:
morning it is trading .7250 compared to .7210 yesterday and this is a
new multi-year high in the Aussie dollar’s favour. Long: 20% Canadian Dollars; 10% Australian Dollars; 5% gold;,
10% silver; 10% corn; 10% sugar; 5% wheat; 5% US Ten year notes
However, as noted here yesterday, given the strength of the A$
today on the cross we thought it is reasonable to cut the trade by Short: 20% Euros; 5% British Pound Sterling
1/3-1/2 and so we did, cutting two units from the Aussie and two
units from the EUR upon receipt of this commentary, with the Horizons AlphaPro Gartman Fund (TSX:HAG): Yesterday’s
intention on any correction to add this back plus more.
Closing Price on the TSX: $8.81 vs. $8.80. Yesterday’s Closing
NAV: $8.82 vs. $8.86
2. Long of Two Units of Gold: One Unit vs.
CIBC Gartman Global Allocation Deposit Notes Series 1-4; The
the EUR and One vs. the British Pound Gartman Index: 118.85 vs. 118.94 previously. The Gartman Index
Sterling: This is our “insurance” gold position… our hedge II: 95.39 vs. 95.44 previously
against disaster… and we added to the trade yesterday by buying a
bit more gold in Sterling terms. Now we shall sit tight once again. Good luck and good trading, Dennis Gartman
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positions an iron ore miner and a railroad company. We also own otherwise is itchin' for a fight.
an “Asian” short term government bond fund, the C$, Swiss Francs,
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