ANALYSIS OF RECORD PHOTOVOLTAIC EFFICIENCIES FROM 1954 to 2009

1 2
Elisabeth McClure and Edward Gaddy
1
Glenelg High School, Glenelg, MD, US
2
Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, Laurel, MD, US

ABSTRACT published during 1954 until 2009. Excepting the earliest

The most efficient solar cells, used in space, have been
expensive. Many types of solar panels were developed
from various materials to maximize solar cell efficiency
and make space missions more successful. As milestones
have been reached throughout solar cell development,
records have been kept to note the improvements in
efficiencies. A compilation and analysis of record solar
cell efficiencies over time might be helpful to researchers,
specialists, historians, and professionals that rely on such
lists.
data, the efficiencies are for AM0. The data begins with
the rapid growth stage of the S-curve hypothesis,
demonstrating a steady incline from 6% to 11.7%
efficiency [4], resulting from improvements such as the
introduction of grids on the cell front surface [3]. The data
then shows stagnation at 11.7% from 1962 until 1972, with
the improvement to 13% efficiency due to the introduction
of the violet solar cell [10]. Subsequently, efficiency levels
escalate fairly rapidly to 15% in 1975 with a GaAs cell, the
first time a silicon cell was surpassed [11].

INTRODUCTION

Solar cell development began around 1954, at which point

“approximately 6% efficiency” was announced by Chapin,
Fuller, and Pearson [2]. Solar cell efficiency rapidly
increased to 8% in 1957 and 10% in 1959 [3]. When the
second Photovoltaic Specialists Conference was held in
1962, single-crystal silicon solar cells had reached 11.7%
efficiency [4]. For the first twenty years, silicon solar cells
achieved greater efficiency levels than solar cells made
from other materials. Silicon solar cells continued to make
gradual progress with such developments as the violet
cell, the first non-concentrator cell to record an efficiency
level at 13% at Air Mass zero (AM0) [9]. Around 1975,
however, solar cells made from GaAs became equally
and, in some cases, more efficient than silicon. In 1990, Figure 1 Record solar cell efficiency levels from 1954-
the silicon passivated emitter, rear locally-diffused (PERL) 2009.
cell recorded an efficiency level above 20% [19]; however,
by 1993, record efficiency levels attained by multijunction
solar cells had surpassed the record efficiency levels of From 1975 until 1980, the increase was at a more gradual
silicon, and continue to do so. Beginning around 2002, rate as record solar cell efficiency increased from 15% to
record achieved solar cell efficiency levels remained 16% [13]. The trend curved more steadily from 1980 to
around 30%, concluding with the 2009 1988 [18], finally becoming more gradual from 1988 to
GaInP/GaAs/GaInAs cell that achieved 32.4% efficiency at 1994 [22], and stagnating briefly until 1996 [23]. Between
AM0 [29]. 1996 and 1997, record solar cell efficiency jumped from
25.7% to 26.9% with the double junction tandem solar cell
TREND ANALYSIS [24], and exceeded 29% in 2000 with a triple junction cell
[25]. From 2000 to 2007, the solar cell efficiency levels
Improvements in solar cell technology - including remained about 30%, until they reached 32.4% in 2009
alterations made to size, structure, and material - have [29]. The authors note that this analysis does not include
produced graphs that mark the trends of solar cell the important record efficiency cell reported in 1990
development at AM0 from the 1950s to the present. Ray because it was not measured at AM0 [33]. If it had been, it
Kurzweil [1], among other scientists and theorists, would likely have been recorded at about 25%. More
published theories that technology can improve in research may wish to be done on this point.
continuous S-shaped patterns of slow growth, rapid
growth, and stagnation [32]. The S-curve hypothesis Figure 2 analyzes the trends of silicon and multijunction
provides a way to explain and predict trends over time. solar cells reaching record efficiencies from 1954 to 2009.
Until 1975, silicon solar cells were more efficient than solar
Figure 1 illustrates the most efficient single crystal, non- cells made from materials like GaAs or CdS. Even after a
concentrator solar cells as found in experimental results single junction GaAs cell surpassed the most efficient

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silicon solar cells, it took several more years until solar
cells made from GaAs permanently surpassed silicon.
Research was often torn between efficiency and
affordability, and some of the more efficient solar cells
documented at that time were not as efficient as those in
previous years. Solar cells measured in AM0, the air mass
used for space solar projects that are generally less
constrained by cost than terrestrial solar projects, were
analyzed to try to maximize true trends in efficiency. For
most of the research, this seemed to be successful.
Figure 2 Comparison of silicon, single junction, and
multijunction solar cell efficiency levels from 1954-
2009, record efficiency levels per year (rather than
overall) included.
From 1980 until 1997, the divide between efficiency and
affordability can be seen. Development has a general
upward trend, but the data can vary up to 4 percentage
points between years, with several efficiency levels
recorded higher or lower than the years before them. From
2000 until 2007, the trend is more reliable and clusters
around 30%, possibly illustrating a focus on efficiency that
was less apparent from 1980 to 1997. The result is the
increase from 30.2% to 32.4% between 2007 and 2009.
ERROR ANALYSIS
After the research was collected, it was reviewed to
minimize extraneous data. All data reflects single crystal,
non-concentrator solar cells, where the efficiency levels
could be found between 1954 until 2009. Reliable
efficiency reports were difficult to locate until 1962,
meaning that they may or may not be correct. The timeline
from the Department of Energy, used to gather earlier
dates, also has efficiencies that were doubtful in years not
used in the research. Further, the quality of some papers
was not as reliable as others, and did not adequately
record conditions of the tests or solar cell characteristics.
This may affect an accurate record of maximum solar cell
efficiency levels attained per year.
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The estimation of AM0 has also changed. While some
papers included the value for AM0, others did not. Until
1967, the only accessible papers documenting solar cell
2
efficiency used 100 mW/cm as the radiant flux density,
which is not AM0. The paper documenting the 1967
2
efficiency recorded AM0 as 135 mW/cm , while the paper
documenting the 1968 efficiency reported AM0 as 136
2
mW/cm , and the paper documenting the 1970 efficiency
2
used 139.6 mW/cm . From 1972 until 1985, AM0 wasn’t
reported in the papers used to compile this research, but
2
could generally be found around 135 mW/cm . From 1987
2
until 1990, AM0 was reported at 137.2 mW/cm . In 2000
2
and again in 2006, AM0 was estimated at 1,366.1 W/m by
ASTM E490 [30] [31]; however, from 2000 to 2007, AM0
was normally reported in the other references at 135.3
2
mW/cm , with two exceptions. AM0 was reported at 136.3
2 2
mW/cm in 2000, and 135.5 mW/cm in 2009. The shift
between different calculations of AM0 used in different
papers may alter the trend, especially in earlier years. A
recalculation of solar cell efficiency using a standard AM0
would provide a more accurate compilation of solar cell
efficiency levels. Table I summarizes these results.
CONCLUSION
Analyzing the different materials out of which the solar
cells were made, the most efficient solar cells are
multijunction made with GaInP, as those have had the
greatest efficiency level for the last 15 years. The
efficiency trends result from alterations in material,
structure, design, and other improvements. While
multijunction solar cells became more efficient than single
junction cells, there was not an immediately large
improvement between double junction and triple junction
cells.
The trends in record solar cell efficiency from 1954 to
2009 loosely fit the S-curve hypothesis, so that the
hypothesis might loosely predict trends, even though the
intervals of slow development, rapid development, and
stagnation aren’t consistent and tend to occur over large
intervals. There appear to be three main S-curves in the
graph, with the first S-curve beginning around 1954 and
ending in 1994, spanning about 20 percentage points. The
following S-curve spanned about 5 percentage points from
around 1996 to 2004. The final noticeable S-curve in the
graph, stretching from the early 2000s and continuing to
the present, may also be expected to span around 5
percentage points, if it is like the S-curve before it. As
solar technology matures, the S-curves seem to occur
more rapidly, while the increase is less significant in terms
of percentage points. This might indicate that future
periods of slow growth, rapid growth, and stagnation will
also fit this trend. Since an increase of 2.2 percentage
points within two years from 2007 to 2009 is a relatively
large incline for a span of 5 percentage points, we might
expect stagnation or slow growth for the next few years,
while the latest technology needed for rapid growth
continues to be developed.
002570
Name of paper Author Date Efficiency Intensity Material
2
(mW/cm )
A New Silicon p-n Junction Photocell for D.M. Chapin et al. 1954 6% Silicon
Converting Solar Radiation into Electrical Power
The History of Solar DOE 1957 8% Silicon
The History of Solar DOE 1959 10% Silicon
Midas III and Midas IV Measurements of Silicon 1962 11.70% 100 Silicon
Solar Cell Degradation in the Van Allen
Radiation
Solar Cell Performance at High Temperature Jacob D. Broder 1964 10.00% Silicon
Drift Field Dendritic Silicon Solar Cells K. S. Tarneja 1965 11.20% 100 Silicon
Integral Covers for Solar Cells J. F. Wise 1967 10.70% 135 Silicon
Solar Cell Performance at Jupiter Temperature Curt H. Liebert 1968 11% 136 Silicon
and Solar Intensity
Antireflecting Silicon Solar Cells with Titanium J. Roger and P. 1970 11.25% 139.6 Silicon
Dioxide Colardelle
An Improved Silicon Solar Cell - The Violet Cell J. Lindmayer and J. 1972 13% Silicon
Allison
The AMOS Cell - An Improved Metal- Richard J. Stirn and 1975 15% GaAs
Semiconductor Solar Cell Yea-Chuan M. Yeh
High Performance, Inexpensive Solar Cell Pradeep Shah and 1976 14.50% Silicon
Process Capable of a High Degree of Clyde R. Fuller
Automation
High Efficiency Wraparound Contact Solar Cells Mark Gillanders 1980 16.00% Silicon
(HEWACS) and Ron Opjorden
Large Area Space Solar Cell Assemblies M. J. Nowlan and 1982 14.40% Silicon
M. B. Spitzer
Improvements in Silicon Solar Cell Efficiency M. A. Green et al. 1985 18.10% Silicon
Junction Formation Techniques for Indium M. B. Spitzer et al. 1987 17.90% 137.2 InP
Phosphide Solar Cells
23.9% Monolithic Multijunction Solar Cell G. F. Virshup et al. 1988 22.30% GaAs/AlGaAs
24% Efficient PERL Structure Silicon Solar J. Zhao et al. 1990 20.80% 137.2 Silicon
Cells
Production and Qualification Status of GaAs/Ge M. S. Gillanders et 1991 19% GaAs/Ge
Top/Bottom Contact Solar Cells al.
Development of 20% Efficient GaInAsP Solar P. R. Sharps et al. 1993 21.60% GaInAsP
Cells
High-Efficiency GaInP/GaAs Tandem Solar K. A. Bertness et 1994 25.70% GaInP/GaAs
Cells for Space and Terrestrial Applications al.
Experimental Results of GaInP2/GaAsGe Triple P. K. Chiang et al. 1996 25.67% GaInP/GaAs/Ge
Junction Cell Development for Space Power
Systems
High-Efficiency Radiation-Resistant T. Takamoto et al. 1997 26.90% InGaP/GaAs
InGaP/GaAs Tandem Solar Cells
Next-Generation, High-Efficiency III-V R.R. King et al. 2000 29.30% 136.3 GaInP/GaInAs/Ge
Multijunction Solar Cells
High-Efficiency Space and Terrestrial Richard R. King et 2002 29.70% 135.3 GaInP/GaAs/Ge
Multijunction Solar Cells Through Bandgap al.
Control in Cell Structures
Metamorphic III-V Materials, Sublattice R. R. King et al. 2004 30.16% 135.3 GaInP/GaInAs
Disorder, and Multijunction Solar Cell
Approaches with over 37% Efficiency
Multijunction Solar Cell Development and Chris Fetzer et al. 2007 30.20% 135.3 GaInP/GaAs/Ge
Production at Spectrolab
The 3J-IMM Solar Cell: Pathways for Insertion Arthur B. Cornfeld 2009 32.40% 135.5 GaInP/GaAs/GaIn
into Space Power Systems and Jacqueline As
Diaz

Table 1 Data collected from 1954-2009.

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002572
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