Marine Policy 71 (2016) 15–28

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Marine Policy
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/marpol

Overview of West African fisheries under climate change: Impacts,

vulnerabilities and adaptive responses of the artisanal and industrial
sectors
Dyhia Belhabib a,n, Vicky W.Y. Lam a, William W.L. Cheung b
a
Sea Around Us, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
b
Changing Ocean Research Unit, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada

art ic l e i nf o a b s t r a c t

Article history: Climate change affects ocean conditions, fish stocks and hence fisheries. In West Africa, climate change
Received 28 September 2015 impacts on fisheries were projected to be mainly negative through multi-facet ways. However, analysis of
Received in revised form adaptation responses of fishers to climate change impacts is scarce. This paper reviews the impacts on
2 May 2016
climate change on fisheries in West Africa and discusses the potential adaptation strategies adopted by
Accepted 11 May 2016
both the artisanal and industrial fishing sectors. Overall, climate change and over-exploitation have al-
Available online 20 May 2016
tered species composition of fisheries catches in West Africa. The effect of ocean warming on fisheries is
Keywords: indicated by the increase in dominance of warmer water species in the landings, shown from an increase
Climate change in Mean Temperature of Catch, in the region. Climate change induced changes in potential catch and
Impact assessment
species composition, which inherently have similar symptoms as over-exploitation, are expected to have
Fisheries
repercussions on the economic and social performance of fisheries. Both artisanal and industrial sectors
West Africa
Adaptation may adapt to these changes mainly through expansion of fishing ground that increases operation costs.
Our results highlight that historical changes in target species are more common in industrial than ar-
tisanal fisheries. This result challenges the prevailing assumption that artisanal fisheries, given their
limited movement capacity, would adapt to climate change by shifting target species and/or gear type.
& 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction
West African fisheries resources are relatively abundant, partly
resulting from the higher primary production from the major
eastern boundary upwelling systems in the Canary Current Large
Marine Ecosystem (CCLME) and the Guinea Current Large Marine
Ecosystem (GCLME) [41]. The fisheries sector in West Africa sup-
ports the livelihood of numerous fishing communities and is im-
portant to national economies [24]. The increasing pressure on
fisheries resources caused by foreign fishing fleets [23] and an
expanding small-scale artisanal sector contributed to the current
overexploited status of fish stocks [1,4].
In addition to overfishing, climate change is expected to cause
further changes to fisheries in West Africa [51]. Generally, climate
change affects the physical and biogeochemical properties of the
ocean, including ocean temperature, pH (acidity), oxygen content,
regional wind patterns and thus circulation and upwelling in-
tensity [43]. In West Africa, sea surface temperature increased by
n
Corresponding author.
E-mail address: d.belhabib@oceans.ubc.ca (D. Belhabib).
0.52, 0.46 and 0.24 °C, respectively, from 1982 to 2006 [25]. These
changes affect ocean primary productivity and the eco-physiology
and ecology of marine organisms, leading to shifts in species dis-
tribution, phenology, species assemblages, ecosystem functions
and trophic interactions [26,73]. Shift in distribution of exploited
fishes and invertebrates [36] and changes in ocean net primary
production are projected to lead to large scale redistribution of
global catch potential, with higher latitudes benefiting from an
increase while tropical regions suffering from a decrease in catch
potential [33]. In West Africa, catch potential is projected to
change and projections vary depending on the modelling ap-
proach used [32]; however, all approaches suggest that West
African fisheries are highly sensitive to climate change, although
the direction of changes diverges between modelling approaches.
Lam et al. [51] projected a decline in fish landings by 2050 in the
Gulf of Guinea along the Guinea Current Large Marine Ecosystem
and a slight increase for the African countries along the Canary
Current Large Marine Ecosystem, while Barange et al. [7] (Not
included herein) predicted that the Gulf of Guinea is expected to
have one of the largest increases in fish catch potential with 23.9%
and a decline of 14.6% in the Canary Current Large Marine

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2016.05.009
0308-597X/& 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
16 D. Belhabib et al. / Marine Policy 71 (2016) 15–28
Ecosystem under climate change scenarios. The discrepancy in the
projections between these two studies may be related to the types
of oceanography model used that may have different level of re-
presentation of upwelling systems. Specifically, Lam et al. [51]
used outputs from coarse resolution global climate model while
Barange et al. [7] used high-resolution shelf seas model. Not-
withstanding the differences in projected climate change effects
on the fisheries, the ultimate impacts on local communities will
depend strongly on adaptive capacity of the fishing communities
[7].
Species composition of catch also changed according to water
temperature, with increase dominance of warmer water species as
temperature increases [37]. Warming and changes in oxygen
content will potentially lead to an average decrease in maximum
body size of exploited fish stocks by 14–24% by 2050 relative to
2000 [35]. These changes will challenge the sustainability of
fisheries and their management particularly for countries with
fewer alternative resources and lower adaptive capacity [26], such
as those in West Africa [51].
Impacts of climate change on the fisheries sectors are still not
well-studied [26] and existing knowledge is limited to those re-
gions of the world that are data rich [75], e.g., the North Atlantic
[27,34,62]. A few studies analyze the impacts of climate change
beyond the ecological and biological scope [51,67,73]. However,
there are significantly fewer studies for developing countries,
particularly West Africa.
Fishers in West Africa may have already been affected by the
impacts of climate change and they have been adopting certain
strategies to adapt to these changes. In this region, fishing com-
munities are suggested to be highly vulnerable to climate change,
partly because of their high dependence on fish for their liveli-
hoods and food security, and the limited societal capacity for their
national economies to deal with climate change impacts [3,51].
Patterns of adaptation to declining fish stocks at a very local level
have been described [17,60], notably dealing with change in target
species based on species availability [68]. For example, Senegalese
fishers have changed target species from bluefish (Pomatomus
saltatrix), after it collapsed, to small pelagic sardinella (Sardinella
spp.) [17]. However, the flexibility of small-scale fishers to redirect
fishing effort, even in the context of severely depleted fisheries is
limited [38] posing constraint to a wider range of adaptation
strategies. On the other hand, movement of industrial (notably
distant water) fleets throughout West African waters is typically
flexible [1], which means they have higher capacity to adapt to the
impacts of climate change.
Previous studies suggest climate change will impact artisanal
fisheries but their results remain speculative and such analyses do
not include the complex interactions of the natural and human
systems (e.g., [67]). Studies on the responses of different fishing
sectors to climate change focus mainly on understanding adaptive
capacity of the countries and/or fishing communities to climate
change impacts on food security and fisheries economics, and in
relation to the effects of over-exploitation [3,39,51,71]. However,
very few analyses have targeted adaptation strategies by fishing
fleets and their responses to the symptoms or impacts of climate
change on fisheries. These studies describe potential adaptation
routes, if only by speculating on different strategies based on the
perception that artisanal fisheries are more constrained in time
and space than industrial fisheries. However, these studies do not
include the cultural and historical frameworks within which these
fisheries evolve, the heavy dependence of small-scale commu-
nities on fish (and particularly certain species) for their livelihood
and diet preferences.
The objective of this paper is to review the impacts of climate
change on West African fisheries and their scope for adaptation.
Firstly, it provides an overview and evaluate available evidence
that link changes in ocean temperature in the Exclusive Economic
Zones (EEZ) of West African countries with changes in the fisheries
in these countries. Then, it analyzes and discuss potential adaptive
directions of both artisanal and industrial sectors to observed and
expected future changes in the fisheries under climate change.
Finally, it highlights research gaps and priorities.
2. Methods
A literature review was performed to collect quantitative and
qualitative data on different indicators that assess a) the status of
fisheries in terms of catch, effort and catch per unit of effort re-
sulting from catch reconstructions [10,12–16,18–22,24,8] compiled
in the Sea Around Us database (www.seaaroundus.org), b) climate
change effects on these fisheries related to the change in species
distribution, exploited species composition and the subsequent
impacts on socio-economic sector, and c) the changes in behavior
of fishers as qualitative and quantitative data reported by the lit-
erature. Data on the effects of climate change on fisheries are re-
presented by several indicators which are related to the impacts of
climate change on fish biomass, composition, distribution, and
potential catch change. These indicators were then used to esti-
mate potential impacts on jobs and economic benefits (Table 1). A
literature review of the attributes related to changes in behavior,
as a response to symptoms that are similar to the effects of climate
change (e.g., declining fish catches due to local extinctions, or
change in target species due to local invasion), constitute the
second part of the study. This paper then concludes with the po-
tential adaptation pathways of artisanal and industrial fisheries in
the West African region.
2.1. Study area
West Africa (Fig. 1) refers to the area between the Strait of
Gibraltar (36° 8′ N and 5° 21′ W) and the extreme south of the
People's Republic of Congo (05°47S, 12°13′ E). This area, en-
compassed within FAO statistical areas 34 (Eastern Central Atlan-
tic) includes the following countries: Morocco, Western Sahara,
Mauritania, Senegal, The Gambia for the Canary Current Large
Marine Ecosystem (CCLME), and Guinea Bissau, Guinea, Liberia,
Sierra Leone, Ghana, Benin, Togo, Nigeria, Congo, Sao Tome and
Principe and Equatorial Guinea for the Guinea Current Large
Marine Ecosystem (GCLME) (Fig. 1).
2.2. Attributes to assess climate change effects on fisheries
A literature review was performed to assess the effects of cli-
mate change on fisheries of West Africa, through a range of at-
tributes or indicators. Indicators were collated from the literature
to assess the observed and projected impacts of climate change on
fisheries in the EEZs of the West African countries within the
CCLME and the GCLME. These indicators are related to fisheries
catches and fishing dynamics (catch potential, target species and
status of fishery). While both categories are inter-linked, assessing
impacts of climate change on these indicators separately help
capture the drivers and responses of climate change impacts in
each country. For indicators that are based on catches, the catch
data supplied to the FAO is sufficient for West African countries as
catches are largely under-reported particularly for earlier time
periods. FAO data omit a large fraction of artisanal catches, all
subsistence catches, and industrial foreign catches [9,23,61]. These
data also are not sufficiently disaggregated into species and fish-
eries sector [9]. Thus, reconstructed catch data [9] were used, and
species that represented over 9% of the total catch per sector were
extracted, as the species that are mainly targeted and/or caught.
Table 1.
Effects of climate change on West African fisheries and fish stocks.

Country SSTa MTCb Invasiona Local extinctionc Catch potentiald Main species Status of fisherye

Morocco þ – High Low – Octopus vulgaris, Sardina pilchardus Over-exploitation

W. Sahara þ – High Low 8 Octopus vulgaris, Sardina pilchardus Over-exploitation
Mauritania þ – Medium Low 11 Engraulis encrasicolus, Sardina pilchardus, Scomber japonicus, Trachurus trachurus, Trichiurus lepturus Over-exploited
þ –

D. Belhabib et al. / Marine Policy 71 (2016) 15–28

Senegal Medium Low 18 Rachycentron canadum, Sardinella spp., Scomber japonicus Over-exploitation
The Gambia þ – Medium Low 7 Ethmalosa fimbriata, Sardinella spp. Over-exploitation
Cape Verde þ Medium Low 6 Acanthocybium solandri, Decapterus macarellus, Katsuwonus pelamis, Thunnus albacares uncertain
Guinea Bissau þ þ Medium Low 3 Octopus vulgaris, Penaeus kerathurus, Pseudotolithus elongatus, Sardinella aurita uncertain
Guinea þ þ Low Medium 9 Ethmalosa fimbriata, Octopus vulgaris, Scomber japonicus, Pseudotolithus spp. Over-exploitaion, uncertain
Sierra Leone þ þ Low Medium  14 Penaeus kerathurus, Pseudotolithus senegallus, Sparus aurata Over-exploitaion
Liberia þ þ Low High  36 Lutjanus agennes, Pseudotolithus senegallus, Sardina pilchardus Uncertain
Côte d’Ivoire þ þ Low High  39 Ethmalosa foimbriata, Sardinella aurita Over-exploited
Ghana þ þ Low High  42 Engraulis encrasicolus, Katsuwonus pelamis, Sardinella aurita, Sardinella maderensis Fully to over-exploited
Togo þ þ Low High  29 Brachydeuterus auritus, Engraulis encrasicolus, Sardinella maderensis, Fully to over-exploited
Benin þ þ Low High 9 Ilisha africana, Pseudotolithus senegallus, Sardinella maderensis fully to over-exploited
Nigeria þ þ Low High – Ethmalosa fimbriata, Polydactylus quadrifilis Over-exploited
Cameroon þ þ Low Medium – Ethmalosa fimbriata, Sardinella spp., Brachydeuterus auritus Over-exploited, uncertain
Equa. Guinea þ þ Low High – Brachydeuterus auritus, Diplodus bellottii Over-exploited
S. Tome & Princ. þ þ Low High – Cheilopogon melanurus, Katsuwonus pelamis, Prionace glauca, Thunnus spp. Over-exploited
Gabon þ þ Low High – Ethmalosa fimbriata, Dentex spp., Pseudotolithus spp. Over-exploited, shrimp uncertain
Congo þ þ High High – Pseudotolithus senegallus, Sardinella maderensis, Sardinella aurita Over-exploited
Congo (ex-Z.) þ þ High High – Aristeus varidens, Parapenaeus longirostris, Over-exploited

Main target species were extracted from various literature sources and gathered in catch reconstructions [8–24,61,69]. Dash indicates no data.
a
Data extracted from Hadley Centre SST climatology.
b
Cheung et al. [37].
c
Cheung et al. [36].
d
Low range GHG (constant 2000) scenario [33,51].
e
FAO and CECAF [45].

17
18 D. Belhabib et al. / Marine Policy 71 (2016) 15–28
Fig. 1. Map of West Africa showing Large Marine Ecosystems boundaries.
They represent the targeted (or most valuable) species caught
(contributing 75% of the total), and excluded discards. Effort data
in number of reported or known number of fishing vessels and
canoes were extracted from several literature sources, as sum-
marized in [9]. These attributes are:
2.2.1. The Mean Temperature of the Catch (MTC)
This metric is calculated from the average temperature pre-
ference of exploited species weighted by their annual catch (b).
Using this indicator, these authors show that the taxonomic
composition of fisheries in most of the Large Marine Ecosystems
(LMEs) of the world from 1970 to 2006 is significantly related to
changes in ocean temperature, with increasing dominance of
warm-water associated species.
MTC was calculated, as the average temperature preference of
exploited marine fishes and invertebrates weighted by their an-
nual reconstructed catch, to indicate the effects of ocean warming
on species composition of fisheries catch in the Canary Current
Large Marine Ecosystem and the Gulf of Guinea Large Marine
Ecosystem. This metric indicates a combination of changes in
species distribution and shift in target species; the latter reflects
adaptation responses of fishers to changes in fish stocks.
2.2.2. Invasion and local extinction rates
Invasion represents the expansion of species range to newly
habitats, while local extinction occurs when a species ceases to
occur in its previous distribution area [36]. Cheung et al. [36] ex-
pressed invasion and local extinction rates as proportion of the
initial species richness. Both indicators illustrate the effects of
climate change on biodiversity and composition of resources
available to fisheries. Thus, species invasion and local extinction
indicate the exposure to climate change impacts that the fisheries
need to adapt to.
Here, projected invasion and local extinction rates by the 2050s
relative to the 2000s under the Intergovernmental Panel on Cli-
mate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)
 D. Belhabib et al. / Marine Policy 71 (2016) 15–28
A1B, which indicates high greenhouse gas emission scenario, are
extracted from Cheung et al. [36]. Based on averaged results by
Cheung et al. [36], the invasion rate was divided by three cate-
gories, i.e., low, medium and high, rather than absolute number to
facilitate the analysis. Low invasion rate corresponds to 20  26%;
medium invasion rate corresponds to 26  32% and high invasion
rate corresponds to a range of 32  38%. Similarly, low, medium
and high local extinction rates correspond to 1  2.3%, 2.4 3.6%
and 3.7  5%, respectively. Recent analysis using updated climate
model, species distribution models and greenhouse gas emission
scenarios highlight that the pattern reported in Cheung et al. [36]
is robust to these variations [47].
2.2.3. Catch potential change
Represents the projected change in catch potential in each EEZ
by the 2050s [51]. This metric is calculated based on the difference
between the current catch and the projected future potential catch
projected by first projecting future species distribution ranges, and
second, calculating the catch potential. The latter is projected in
three major steps; (1) a baseline average is assessed, (2) primary
production is projected, and (3) the annual maximum catch po-
tential is estimated based on the total primary production, the
geographic range considered and the trophic level using the em-
pirical model developed by Cheung et al. [31]. As the main out-
come of a fishery is the catch amount, this metric is particularly
important to indicate the exposure of fisheries to climate change
impacts in terms of losses in potential catches.
2.2.4. Main target species
Illustrate all species that represent over 9% of total industrial
and artisanal catches from a given EEZ between 1970 and 2010.
This percentage represents the threshold that is set representing
the most valuable and/or target species in West Africa, their cat-
ches adding up to 75% of the total catch. This indicator illustrates
the profile of the fishery and thus fishing fleets. As target species,
in one hand, often illustrate preferences in fishing strategies, gear
type, fishing area, fishing practices such as discards, and climate
change impacting species distribution on the other, changes in
target species (or preferences) could be directly linked to change
in species distribution or its catch potential.
2.2.5. Status of fishery
Indicates the actual known exploitation status of fish stocks as
over-exploitation may exacerbate the effects of climate change.
Information on the status of West African fisheries were gathered
through a literature review. This indicator is particularly im-
portant, as its effects (e.g. declining catch potential, shift in species
composition) not only mimic the impacts of climate change, which
allows to cross-link possible responses of fishing fleets to these
similar effects, but also, their importance lies within the fact that
over-exploitation is expected to exacerbate the effects of climate
change, driving a quicker response by fishing fleets.
Economic impact was illustrated by the potential changes in
economic output of fisheries to climate change. This is indicated by
the change in the economic contribution of fisheries to the na-
tional economy [51] and calculated as the product of the fishing
economic multiplier [44] and the projected potential catch for
2050. This indicator is particularly important, as changes in eco-
nomic impact may incentivize adaptation strategies over others.
Job potential measures the change in the number of jobs
available within the fishing sector [51]. This metric, proportioned
by the baseline (2000) catch and then estimated for the 2050s
based on the projected catch (see above). Loss in job potential
means lower possibility of increase in fishing effort to compensate
for e.g. catch loss, a constraining factor for adaptability.
Using the attributes described above, in combination with
19
observed catch trends, provides an overall picture of the effects of
climate change on West African fisheries in terms of changes in
species distribution that affects the catch (Mean Temperature of
the Catch, invasion by new species and extinction of traditionally
targeted species), the outcomes (changes in catch potential, eco-
nomic impact and job potential), and the attributes that describe
the fishery such as traditionally targeted species and exploitation
status of the fishery). To assess adaptability, i.e. routes or changes
in behavior of the industrial and artisanal fishing sectors, the
former attributes need to be overlapped with a) indicators of
adaptive capacity and hence resilience and flexibility of adaptation
strategies (vulnerability and adaptive capacity) and b) changes in
behavior of fishers observed through different metrics including
mobility and migrations, changes in fishing fleet types, changes in
fishing costs, increase or decrease in fishing effort or the number
of boats, and change in gear type.
2.3. Attributes to assess the adaptability of fisheries to climate
change
Published indicators were applied to assess the adaptability of
the fisheries to climate change effects on fish distribution and
potential production for the 2050s. Adaptability is herein defined
as the strategy or set of strategies taken by fishers or fishing fleets
to respond to effects similar to those caused by climate change.
The adaptability of the fisheries partly depends on the overall
vulnerability and adaptive capacity of the country within which
the fisheries operate. For example, low adaptive capacity of the
countries’ economy (i.e., lacking alternative livelihood choices) will
likely prevent fishers from exiting the fishery [38].
Adaptability of fisheries to climate change was illustrated by a
set of indicators that includes overall vulnerability of the countries’
economy to climate change, mobility, fishing fleet types, migration
history, fishing costs, artisanal and industrial fishing effort, and
change in gear type.
2.3.1. Vulnerability and adaptive capacity of countries’ economy to
climate change through fisheries
Vulnerability of a country to climate change impacts is defined
as the exposure of a country or an ecological systems to climate
change, its intrinsic sensitivity to this hazard, and the lack of
ability to adapt to these changes [2,3,28,70]. One of the ways for
assessing vulnerability is the use of indicator-based analysis. In the
vulnerability assessment framework developed by Allison et al.
[3], vulnerability index composed of three key components: the
exposure (exposure) of a country to climate change, the depen-
dence of the national economy on the fisheries sector (sensitivity),
and the ability of a country to cope with or recover from the
changes (adaptive capacity). Since vulnerability is a composite
index, vulnerability and adaptive capacity may go opposite ways.
One country can be highly vulnerable but not necessarily to
struggling to adapt to the change, i.e., with high exposure and/or
high sensitivity but is highly capable to adapt. As such, this study
includes both vulnerability index and the adaptive capacity com-
ponent. However, given that this opposing relationship may not be
linear in the long run, sensitivity, a composite index of employ-
ment and economic dependence on the fisheries sector, was used
along with adaptive capacity which is indicated by nutritional
dependence, health, education, governance and the size of the
economy [3].
2.3.2. Mobility
In general, fishers may adapt to the change in marine species
composition caused by global warming in two different ways.
Some fishers may follow the marine species by moving to the new
fishing grounds [26], whereas some other fishers with higher
20 D. Belhabib et al. / Marine Policy 71 (2016) 15–28
resilience to adapt may change their target species composition by
changing their fishing gear types [67]. Mobility on the other hand
is related or depends on another set of attributes such as migration
history, the fishing fleet type, and fishing costs. This indicator was
investigated for each sector within the countries targeted by the
present study based on literature review documenting migrations,
whether related to climate change or no.
2.3.3. Fishing fleet types
Distant water fishing fleets have a higher mobility and more
advanced technologies than domestic industrial and artisanal
fishing fleets. They are usually expected to have a higher resilience
to adapt to climate change as they are less selective in nature, have
higher capital and possess an easier access to credit as to manage
climate variability [66]. For example, distant water fleets in the
Indian Ocean are expected to adapt easily to the climate-induced
shift in tuna distribution in contrast to domestic fleets restricted to
EEZ [77]. Similarly, industrial fishers in Peru diversified their
fishing techniques during the 1997–1998 El Niño event by shifting
their fishing gear from gill-nets and purse-seines to trawls [5]. In
contrast, small-scale artisanal fishers are more limited in their
geographical scope and have fewer alternative sources of liveli-
hood and income; thus their resilience is often described as low
[66,67]. However, a few studies demonstrate a certain degree of
resilience of less technologically advanced fleets to environmental
stressors such as declining fish stocks. These fleets adapt by ex-
panding their fishing range, changing gear and targeted species,
moving to other fishing areas etc. [17,57]. Fishing fleet types were
gathered from the literature accompanied with any highlighted
change in fishing movement, gear type, vessel size or motoriza-
tion, fishing range, fishing cost as these can be related to the im-
pacts of climate change.
2.3.4. Migration history
Migration for the artisanal sector is defined as short time
ventures into the waters of another country in contrast to long
term migrations where fishers would reside in the country they
operate in. An artisanal fleet with a strong migration history has a
higher geographic mobility and is thus more likely to be adaptive
to changes in fisheries resources (see mobility). Information on
migration history and fleet movement were gathered from the
literature, including any indication of expanding fishing range.
2.3.5. Change in fishing cost
this indicator illustrates whether there was a change in fishing
costs from 1970 to 2010. In a scenario where catches are declining,
and fishers’ willingness to exit a fishery is limited due to lower
alternative livelihood options, fishers increase fishing costs to be
able to expand their fishing range over time and space. Thus, a
historical overview of changes in fishing costs indicates, in the case
of an increase in costs despite of or because of declining catches,
whether fishers have been increasing their fishing range over time
and space to adapt to declining catches resulting from either or
both the effects of over-exploitation and climate change.
2.3.6. Artisanal and industrial effort
This indicator represents the change in the number of active
pirogues and industrial fishing vessels, respectively, between 1970
and 2010 in each country EEZ, regardless of their flags and origin,
compiled from the literature [10,12–16,18–22,24,8]. It captures
potential future responses, all things being equal, of fishers or the
fishing industry to declining catches. Indeed, in many cases,
countries with limited alternatives (low adaptive capacity) re-
spond to declining fish supply (through fisheries) by increasing (or
subsidizing) the fishing effort. Within the artisanal fishing sector
for example, it is not uncommon for boat owners to invest in the
acquisition of new fishing boats with the help of the state to
compensate for declining catches [15], whether caused by over-
exploitation, the effects of climate change or both.
2.3.7. Changes in gear type
This indicates whether there is evidence of the ability of fishers
to change their gear type in respond to changing resources com-
position or abundance. Occurrence and type of changes in gear
type are gathered from the literature.
Finally, different adaptation strategies of artisanal fisheries
were illustrated in each West African country within the contexts
of MTC and catch potential change with the change in MTC ran-
ging between  35 and þ 10% and the change in catch potential
ranging between  50% and þ30%, by plotting each data point
country (x ¼ ΔMTC, y ¼ Δ Catch potential) and allocate a different
color to each adaptation strategy identified in the present study.
All behavior-changes indicators (qualitative: changes in gear
type, migration history, change in fishing fleet type, and mobility;
and quantitative: change in fishing cost, and fishing effort or
number of boats) are summarized for each country encompassed
in the study area, and overlapped with attributes related to the
effects of climate change on fisheries.
3. Results and discussion
First, changes in the status of West African fisheries were dis-
cussed by summarizing catch and effort data resulting from catch
reconstruction. Declining catches and CPUE, despite or because of
increasing fishing effort, may be due to decline in availability of
fish caused in part by climate change. Second a discussion is pre-
sented regarding the relationship between changes in Sea Surface
Temperature (SST) and the climate change-fisheries indicators
(Table 1) in the Canary Current and Guinea Current Large marine
Ecosystems which encompass the study area. All indicators that
are presented in Tables 1 and 2 for the artisanal sector are sum-
marized in Fig. 5. Overlapping indicators allows to understand
common areas of impacts, i.e. symptoms that are shared between
climate change and e.g. over-exploitation. In addition, overlapping
effects with adaptation responses or changes in behavior, costs,
and fishing effort, allows to understand the adaptation strategies
or routes undertaken by the artisanal fishing sector.
3.1. Status of West African fisheries
Artisanal catches have increased overall from around
274,000 t year  1 in 1950 to around 1.4 million t year  1 in 2010,
which went along with a 4-folds increase in the number of boats,
from 17,700 boats in 1950 to 79,000 boats in 2010 (Fig. 2(a)).
However, while the increase may suggest that the catch would
increase similarly, in reality the catch increase was slower, as catch
per effort (or CPUE) declined, and reached a minimum of
17 t boat  1 year  1 in 2010 (Fig. 2(b)).
Industrial catches reached their peak in the early 1990s with
15.8 million t year  1 in 1987, corresponding to the peak in the
number of industrial boats (Fig. 3(a)). The decline in the number of
boats is likely due to the decline in the CPUE (Fig. 3(b)). This has
resulted in declining catches which reached 6.6 million t year  1 in
1997 (Fig. 3(a)). Despite an increasing effort between then and the
mid-2000s, industrial catches have been declining overall which is
also illustrated by the decline in the CPUE (Fig. 3(b)). The CPUE has
increased at first between the 1970s and the 1990s with the in-
creasing vessel capacity, and has declined since by 2 folds (Fig. 3
(b)), which is strong evidence of over-exploitation, or decreasing
fish availability due to increased migrations induced by factors
such as increasing water temperature induced by climate change.
 D. Belhabib et al. / Marine Policy 71 (2016) 15–28
Fig. 2. (a) Total artisanal catch and effort from West Africa, and b) average annual
CPUE, 1970–2010. Reconstructed catch data were extracted from the Sea Around Us
database (www.seaaroundus.org) and effort data were compiled from the
literature.
Fig. 3. a) Total industrial catch and effort from West Africa, and b) average annual
CPUE, 1950–2010. Reconstructed catch data were extracted from the Sea Around Us
database (www.seaaroundus.org) and effort data were compiled from the
literature.
21
Fig. 4. Changes in Sea Surface Temperature (SST) within a) the CCLME, and b) the
GCLME, 1970–2009 (data extracted from Hadley Centre SST climatology).
3.2. Effects of climate change on West African fisheries
3.2.1. Effects of climate change on fisheries
SST in the CCLME and GCLME increased by 0.7 °C and 0.6 °C,
respectively and between 1970 and 2010 (Fig. 4, also see [25]). In
the CCLME, increased SST does not match with the expectation
from “Bakun's hypothesis” that predicts a decrease in SST driven by
increases in intensity of upwelling under climate change
[6,42,65,74].
In contrast, warming in CCLME corresponds to an increase in
Mean Temperature of the Catch (MTC) in the region, indicating an
increase dominance of warmer water species in fisheries catches
(Table 1) Based on Cheung et al. [37], an increase (þ) or decrease
( ) in MTC from 1970 to 2006 were identified for each Large
Marine Ecosystem (Table 1). Increased MTC means that the dom-
inance of warm-water species in a given region is increasing
(tropicalization of catch) while the proportion of subtropical of
subtropical species in the catch is declining, and vice versa.
Overall, MTC has declined within the CCLME and increased within
the GCLME (Table 1). A decline in MTC may be due to fisheries
effects (over-exploitation) or intensification of upwelling This
pattern is observed in Morocco, Western Sahara, Mauritania, Se-
negal and the Gambia where catches are dominated mainly by
small-pelagic species (Table 1).
Similarly, fish stocks and hence catch potential are closely re-
lated to availability of fish determined at least partly by their
movement, i.e. local extinctions and invasions. Overall, results il-
lustrated in Table 1 suggest there are more invasions in the CCLME
and less extinctions, in contrast to the GCLME where local ex-
tinction rates are medium to high while invasions are low (Ta-
ble 1). Catch potential is projected to decrease slightly due to
projected low extinctions within the CCLME by 2050 relative to
2000 under SRES A1B scenario. The local extinction of species
could be compensated by catches of newly introduced species
given a projected medium to high invasion rate (Table 1). Rising
22 D. Belhabib et al. / Marine Policy 71 (2016) 15–28
water temperatures leads to the opposite effect within the GCLME
with a loss of 3–42% of the catch potential. MTC increases with the
increase in SST, suggesting that the proportion of tropical species
is higher. However, this LME has high projected local extinction
rate which means that the catch potential is likely to decline
substantially by the 2050s relative to the 2000s under the SRES
A1B scenario (Table 1).
3.2.2. Vulnerability and adaptive capacity of fisheries
Notwithstanding the differences in projected climate change
effects on the fisheries, the ultimate impacts on local communities
will depend strongly on adaptive capacity of the fishing commu-
nities [7]. This also has to do with the resilience of fish stocks to
resist to shocks and changes. Table 1 suggests that most fished
stocks in West Africa are over-exploited, which is likely to ex-
acerbate the impacts of climate change [52], as exploitation would
alter the structure of populations and ecosystem and hence
change the ability of marine species to respond to climate change
and the resilience of the ecosystems to climate change [64]. Re-
sults summarized in Table 2 suggest that adaptive capacity in West
Africa ranges between very low and low, meaning, not only al-
ternative livelihoods are limited but the range within which na-
tional economies can adapt constrains the capacity of fishers to
cope with the impacts of climate change. On the other hand,
vulnerability is, overall, high with certain exceptions (Table 2).
Ultimately, the implications of over-exploitation, reduced fish
availability, and low adaptive capacity with very limited alter-
native livelihood have potentially negative implications on the
economy and food security which translate into declines of eco-
nomic output and job potential.
3.2.3. Implications for the economy and food security
Implications of climate change effects, summarized in Table 1,
are presented in Table 2. In West Africa, climate change is expected
to produce a decline in the fisheries economic output of 10% on
average [51], with the highest rates projected for tropical countries
(Table 2). Variations exist however, as countries within the CCLME
(Mauritania, Senegal, The Gambia) are projected to experience
increasing economic output under climate change. Similarly, cli-
mate change is expected to produce an overall decline in the
number of fisheries jobs [51], mostly within the GCLME with
around  30% on average, while the increasing catch potential
generated by climate change is expected to increase the number of
jobs within the CCLME (Table 2). This effects are expected to be
exacerbated by low resilience of fish stocks because of
overexploitation.
The indicators presented in Table 2 show that high vulner-
ability associated with low adaptive capacity of national econo-
mies of West Africa to climate change produce a situation where
alternative livelihoods offered to fishers are limited. The rational
approach adopted by fishers to compensate as illustrated in Ta-
ble 2 can be divided in three main categories. The first strategy, a
collective adaptation route is illustrated through the overall in-
crease in fishing effort (number of boats) for the artisanal sector,
higher in the CCLME (500% on average) with a maximum for
Mauritania with over 900% increase in the number of artisanal
boat since the 1970s. On the other hand, the number of industrial
boats has declined in the CCLME in comparison with the GCLME,
likely due to a bid to compensate or create more opportunities for
the artisanal sector that increased drastically in the CCLME. The
second route relates to the fishing capacity and fishing cost, which
in turn relates to a) the distance travelled to fishing grounds, the
time spent at sea, the size and capacity of fishing vessels in terms
of catch per unit of effort. The literature review summarized in
Table 2 illustrates that costs of the artisanal sector increased due to
expanding fishing grounds, increasing fishing range, and increased
motorization (and hence costs for fuel were introduced) which
were observed throughout the CCLME and GCLME. In two in-
stances, and in the presence of a strong migration history, Senegal
and Ghana developed short term migrations where pirogues or
canoes typically mimic distant water fleets as they travel for long
fishing trips and return to home ports to land their catches. This
adaptation route contributed to creating a new kind of pirogues
with costs that are much higher than the typical artisanal pirogue
[17]. This second adaptation route was developed to “follow the
fish” because of over-exploitation and increased fish migrations
(local extinctions), also perceived as poorer catches in original
fishing grounds and higher catches elsewhere (local invasions).
Similarly, the industrial sector increased its costs due to increased
vessel capacity and profile (typically, domestic vessels were re-
placed by domestication or reflagging of foreign vessels that were
bigger and costly). The third adaptation route deals with changing
gear type as an opportunistic behavior to target new species, or an
effective way to catch a larger amount of a traditionally target
species in the traditional fishing grounds. Despite the overall lit-
erature argument that artisanal fisheries are expected to change
their gear type to adapt to changes in MTC, there were only two
cases where the artisanal sector changed its gear type to target
new species, Western Sahara and The Gambia (Table 2). Changes in
gear type were more common in the industrial fishery through
changes in fleet profile that translated usually in targeting new
species or other fisheries.
Table 2 suggests that in response to over-exploitation and de-
clining catches, artisanal fisheries would either migrate towards
new fishing grounds within their EEZ, particularly when the EEZ
covers the potential migrating route of the species (e.g., Maur-
itania, Senegal, Guinea Bissau, Sierra Leone, Liberia) or to new
fishing grounds in other EEZs when the country itself has a strong
migrating tradition (e.g., Senegal, Benin, Togo, Ghana). In both
strategies, these movements are confirmed by increasing fuel costs
and/or a strong migration history (Table 2). Indeed, the countries
considered here have witnessed increasing motorization, fuel
usage and thus costs overtime while no significant change in gear
type or targeted species were reported. In contrast, artisanal
fishers, who changed their gear type or the species they targeted,
indicate that more tropical species are caught. Thus, fishers show a
resilient behavior by either shifting to new species and/or chan-
ging fishing gear.
Similarly, the literature argues that expanding fishing range
over time and space is common to industrial fisheries [53], in
contrast to changing gear type. Table 2 shows that industrial
fisheries incurred higher costs, due to increasing vessel capacity
and increasing reflagging of foreign vessels to West African
countries (Table 2). Moreover, changes in gear type are not com-
mon as vessels have a relatively high mobility, which allows them
to ‘follow the fish’ [66]. Changes in fishing costs, gear types and
traditional fishing grounds may be caused by climate change ef-
fects and over-exploitation. Therefore, it is often difficult to sepa-
rate the changes in behavior of fishing fleets due to climate change
or other stressors such as the over-exploitation which prevails in
West Africa (Table 1). Overall, industrial fishing fleets had a low
affinity with changing gear type (Table 2). This particularly applies
in situations where EEZs are large enough to allow for the in-
dustrial fleets to follow the migration path of species rather than
targeting new species, as vessels were increasingly bigger and
more efficient. Vessels prefer to follow the fish rather than tar-
geting new species (Table 2), particularly in countries whose re-
flagging history is strong and where industrial fisheries effort grew
strongly. In contrast, changing industrial fishing gear means these
fleets were relatively more adaptive as they can shift their efforts
to catch new species as fleets improved in efficiency (Table 2). In
the case of Ghana, the fishing range of industrial fleets has shrunk
Table 2
Attributes reflecting the vulnerability and adaptability of West African industrial and artisanal fishing sectors to climate change.

Country Adaptive Vulnerabilitya Economic Jobs Artisanal Fishing cost Change in gear Migration his- Industrial Fishing cost Migration Change in gear
capacitya impactb potentialb effortc (artisanal) type (artisanal) tory (artisanal) effort (industrial) history type (industrial)
(Industrial)

Morocco Low High 301% 65% Yes, the profile Yes, within EEZ Yes [13]
of the fleet has
changed to in-
clude more effi-
cient vessels
[13]
W. Sahara 633% Yes, and fleets tar- No -56% Yes, through in- Yes, within EEZ No
get new species creasing size [13]
[13] and reflagging
[13]
Mauritania Very low High 6% 10% 943% Increase in fishing No [12] No, but Maur- -32% Yes, increase in No
costs because of in- itania is a host fishing capacity
creasing fishing country for mi- due to reflag-
range [12] grant fishers ging [12]
from Senegal

D. Belhabib et al. / Marine Policy 71 (2016) 15–28

[17]
Senegal Very low High 11% 18% 283% Yes, increasing mo- No, except for one Yes, increasing -32%
torization, size of major species in the fishing range
pirogues and fishing 1970s [17] [17]
range [17]
The Gambia Very low High 7% 7% 413% Yes, expanding fish- Yes [18] No, The Gambia 39% Yes, Increasing No No [18]
ing effort [56] is a host [17] capacity
through the in-
creasing use of
chartered ves-
sels [18]
Cape Verde Very low High -7% -6%
Guinea Bissau Very low High -4% -3% 317% Yes increase in mo- No [20] Host country 21%
torization and thus for migrant
fuel usage and costs fishers who
[48] move in and
out of EEZ [17]
Guinea Very low High -9% -9% 242% Yes [11] No No, but in- 278% Yes, increasing No No, but change
creasing fishing capital and fish- in fishing fleet
range over ing capacity [10] profile [10]
space and time
[11]
Sierra Leone Very low High -12% -14% 86% Yes, increase in mo- Yes, but targeted No 219% Yes [69] Yes within EEZ
torization and thus same species [69] Yes through the
fuel usage and fish- introduction of
ing range [69] new fleets tar
geting different
species [69]
Liberia -19% -36% 117% Increase in the num- No [22] No [22] 374% Yes, increase in No, domestic No, rather the
ber of bigger Fanti fishing capacity fleet is restricted profile of
canoes, and motor- due to reflag- to EEZ [22] the foreign fleet
ization thus costs ging [22] within
[22] the EEZ has
changed [22]
Côte Very low High -23% -40% 2% -74%
d’Ivoire
Ghana Low High -27% -37% 46% Yes [61] No, but fleet tar- Yes 13% Yes [61] Yes, Ghanaian in- No [61]
geted new species dustrial vessels

23
 24
Table 2 (continued )

Country Adaptive Vulnerabilitya Economic Jobs Artisanal Fishing cost Change in gear Migration his- Industrial Fishing cost Migration Change in gear
capacitya impactb potentialb effortc (artisanal) type (artisanal) tory (artisanal) effort (industrial) history type (industrial)
(Industrial)

[61] shrunk their

fishing range
from North and
South Western
Africa to Ghana,
more tropical
waters [4]
Togo Very low Moderate -26% -30.0% -20% Yes, notably through No [16] No 270% Yes, higher effi- No No, but the pro-
the usage of bigger ciency [16] file of the fleet
pirogues requiring has been shifted
higher costs, higher from pelagic do-
motorization rates mestic fleets to
and longer fishing demersal foreign
trips [16] fleets [16]
Benin -8% -8% 66% Yes [76] No, increasing re- Host country of 17%
tention of juveniles Fanti, however

D. Belhabib et al. / Marine Policy 71 (2016) 15–28

[19] fishing territory
and capacity
expanded [76]
Nigeria Very low High -20% -24% 373% 408%
Cameroon Very low Moderate 56% 52%
Equa. 238% No [11] Nigerian and 988%
Guinea Gabonese fish-
ers left the
country [11]
S. Tome & Very low Moderate 49% Yes, expanding fish- No, but expanding No 22%
Princ. ing effort and mo- fishing effort con-
torization [29] tributed to target-
ing new species [8]
Gabon Low Low 400% Decreased
Congo Very low Low 158% Yes, increase in fish- No, however In- No 168% Yes, bigger boats Yes, fleets moved No [21]
ing efficiency trans- creasing capacity of meaning higher between Gabon
lated by the increase nets to catch same capital as re- and Angola
in the use of bigger species [59], in- flagging in-
canoes [50] crease in canoe size creasing in the
[46,49] 2000s [54]
Congo (ex- Very low High 174% No
Z.)

a
Allison et al. [3].
b
Under the Low range GHG (constant 2000) scenario [51].
c
Methods are summarized in [24].
 D. Belhabib et al. / Marine Policy 71 (2016) 15–28
Fig. 5. Profile of West African artisanal fisheries potential responses to climate change. Color patches are drawn to include countries for which the parameter was observed.
For example the green patch was drawn to include Western Sahara, Gambia, and Sierra Leone. (For interpretation of the references to color in this figure legend, the reader is
referred to the web version of this article.)
to include only waters that are located south of their former
fishing range, i.e. towards the waters of Ghana (closer to tropical
areas) as countries of West Africa were declaring their EEZs, an-
other factor that adds to climate change effects and exploitation
pattern.
While climate change and exploitation patterns may be closely
related, it is reasonable to assume that the adaptive behavior of
fisheries under declining catch potential will be similar to that
under over-exploitation. The overlap analysis presented in Fig. 5
illustrates such affinities for the artisanal sector.
Adaptive responses of fisheries in West Africa are affected by a
variety of different factors. In West Africa, because of the lack of
alternative livelihood opportunities, fishers are less likely to exit
the fishing industry and their adaptive responses will potentially
concentrate on the adjustment of their fishing practice through
different routes illustrated in Table 2. Here, based on Tables 1 and
2, a topology of potential adaptive responses or routes of West
African artisanal fisheries was created in relation to the detected
and projected changes in catches and their species composition,
which is represented by the same symptoms illustrated by over-
exploited fish stocks, a prevalent trend in West Africa (Fig. 5).
While the decrease in MTC suggests the increasing prevalence of
cooler water species since the 1970s, decreases in catch during the
same period suggest a decrease in potential catch and/or a result of
over-exploitation. There seems to be an important overlap be-
tween prevalence of cooler water species (decline in MTC), over-
exploitation and decline in catch potential, illustrated by the lower
part of Fig. 5. All countries that are above the x-axis (which re-
present the point at which change in catch potential is zero), are
part of the CCLME. In responses to these changes in MTC and catch
potential, changes in the fisheries that could be viewed as adap-
tation strategies include, most commonly, increase in fishing effort
observed in all cases except Togo, followed by expansion of fishing
range which is prevalent in Western Sahara, Mauritania, Senegal,
Gambia, Guinea Bissau, Guinea, Sierra Leone, Togo, Ghana, Liberia,
Benin and Congo (Fig. 5). Fishing gear change is uncommon in the
West African region, only observed in three countries (Western
Sahara, The Gambia and Sierra Leone). These fisheries responses
have considerable implications for fishing costs, as expanding
fishing range over time and space also increases fishing costs
(Table 2, Fig. 5).
The analysis in Fig. 5 reveals that, as opposed to the traditional
view of ‘lower artisanal fisheries mobility’ an analysis to the fish-
ing effort in West Africa through the number of boats, fishing costs
25
and gear type shows that the overall preference is towards ex-
panding fishing range rather than changing gear type. Previous
gear changes mainly took place to target export-oriented species
attracted by a more lucrative international market. A positive
change in MTC in Senegal, Mauritania, Guinea Bissau, Togo and
Ghana was not linked to any noticeable change in gear type. Ra-
ther, countries which show a positive change in MTC had fisheries
with expanding fishing range (Fig. 5). On the other hand, most of
the countries whose artisanal fishing range expanded are pro-
jected to further experience a decline in catch potential (Fig. 5).
Thus, one hypothesis is that artisanal fisheries seem to adapt to the
effects of climate change by increasing their mobility, a more likely
adaptation route than changing gear type. Fishers would use big-
ger boats to expand their fishing range, increase boat motorization
and thus fuel usage and costs rather than changing fishing gear
and targeting new species.
This study illustrates how artisanal and industrial fleets adap-
ted their fishing behavior to stressors such as declining catches.
Assuming, the effects of climate change encompass such stressors,
two hypotheses emerge from the above analysis. First, artisanal
fishers adapt to climate change effects (notably on catch potential)
by ‘following the fish’. Second, domestic industrial fleets tend to
change their fishing profile. This particular adaptive response by
artisanal fishers might be due to the role traditional species play in
the West African diet (e.g., [75]) despite increasing costs, and the
synergistic effect of over-exploitation and climate change. These
hypotheses can be empirically tested by analyzing historically the
relationship between the MTC, as a direct effect of climate change,
and the fishing effort capacity and fishing costs.
Indicators presented by the literature and overlapped here,
suggest that overall, West African fisheries are projected to be
strongly affected by climate change, although the direction of
changes diverges between modelling approaches. Lam et al. [51]
projected a decline in fish landings by 2050 in the Gulf of Guinea
along the Guinea Current Large Marine Ecosystem and a slight
increase for the African countries along the Canary Current Large
Marine Ecosystem, while Barange et al. [7] predicted that the Gulf
of Guinea is expected to have one of the largest increases in fish
catch potential and a decline in the Canary Current Large Marine
Ecosystem under climate change scenarios. Despite existing dis-
crepancies in projections, which may be related to the types of
model used, the effects remain similar to the symptoms caused by
over-exploitation, and the strategies the fishing sector adopts to
adapt. The artisanal fishing sector, which is often operated by or in
26 D. Belhabib et al. / Marine Policy 71 (2016) 15–28
poor fishing communities, constrained by the culture, dietary ha-
bits and available domestic markets, will be highly vulnerable to
climate change [30]. Changing target species, by changing gear
type means shifting dietary habits, to catch a fish species that is
affordable, and finding available markets, which is often very dif-
ficult in the artisanal fishing sector. In addition, the poverty level
of these communities has been already increasing and is likely to
further intensify with climate change impacts and decrease in
resource abundance ([26]; also see Table 1). West African countries
have also been already vulnerable to many other issues including
endemic illegal fishing, poverty, lack of good governance and
fisheries monitoring and uncontrolled expanding fishing effort.
This, associated with high sensitivity of marine capture species to
climate change, is likely to produce positive and negative out-
comes on food production from fisheries [30]. Although climate
change impacts on subsequent food security issues have higher
uncertainty than those on biological and ecological impacts [30],
there is a general consensus on the negative expected effects on
the economy, human livelihood and food security [3,72], and on
governance of developing countries under climate change [55],
which is presented in this study. Indeed, the shift in the dis-
tribution range of fish is broadly recognized to have severe po-
tential impacts on food security [51] as altered species distribution
and species composition will widen the disparity in food security
between developing and developed countries [35,63].
Direct consequences of climate change on poor communities in
West Africa could be disastrous; national economies and coastal
communities will have to adapt over time and space but also shift
their choices of harvest [53]. At a management level, governments
should strive to reduce the vulnerability of fisheries and fishing
communities to climate change through increasing resilience and
adaptive capacity. Increased adaptive capacity will help to offset
climate-change driven impacts through increased flexibility,
learning through monitoring and a better social organization
[38,58]. Low adaptive capacity along with fisheries expansion and
effort-based development projects is expected to put further
pressure on resource availability for local consumption [3,51].
Thus, fishers adapt by following a rational approach that
maximizes catch output, while maintaining the traditional ele-
ments of their fishing activity such as the type of boat used, the
market they target, and the species they catch. Adaptive capacity
may increase by putting an emphasis on the monitoring of the
impacts of climate change on social and economic indicators and
the use of new management and policy approaches to strengthen
the livelihood asset base [3,5,53]. This can be achieved in part by
the understanding of the existing response mechanisms, analyzing
and grasping new opportunities brought by climate change and
adoption of multi-sector adaptive strategies to minimize negative
impacts of climate change [3,5,53]. Proper fisheries monitoring
strategies will potentially allow for a better understanding of past
and current trends and state of the ecosystem and ultimately in-
crease in climate resilience through habitat protection and judi-
cious capital investment in better monitoring [53,66].
Industrial fisheries usually show more flexibility by adapting
different strategies equally as illustrated above. Given a larger
fishing capacity, access to international diverse markets and often
subsidized access, along the fact that most industrial fleets enjoy
“flexible access” to fishing areas within or outside their own EEZs
[1,66], both strategies are deemed appropriate and illustrate a high
flexibility to adapt [53]. However, formerly ‘EEZ stocks’ become
trans-boundary, which requires both artisanal and industrial
fishers to increase their fishing range and thus costs, or to increase
efficiency and target new species [57].
While access to international markets is easier for industrial
fleets, flexible policies are required and institutions need to put in
place adaptive management strategies like agreements which will
allow fishers to harvest fish outside their common areas.
This will result in increasing fishing costs [73], which are in
turn likely to lead to reduction in fishing effort and overcapacity
and a potential increases in resource rent [73], a positive direction
of the effects of climate change on fisheries. However, this needs to
go in hand with the usage of alternative livelihoods [26]. “Liveli-
hood strategies are the range and combination of activities and
choices that people make in order to achieve livelihood outcomes.
Livelihoods therefore are about how actors can mobilize their capital
and capabilities to achieve well-being” [5]. In fisheries, this adds to
the set of capital and capabilities that fishers tend to acquire to
achieve, in the context of climate change, secure well-being.
However it has been often demonstrated that in the case of West
Africa, alternative livelihood opportunities are limited. On the
other hand, the fact that cost related to expanding fishing effort of
small-scale fishing communities is too high [51], creates a trap
wherein fishers are too specialized to allow for livelihood di-
versification [40].
Therefore, beside an urgently needed in depth analysis of the
adaptive responses of fishers to climate change, governments
should strive to increase the resilience of fisheries to the effects of
climate change through diverse strategies. These strategies
include:
– Restoration of overexploited fisheries and reduction of other
stressors.
– Lower rates of fishing mortality, larger exploitable biomass of
targeted species and increased no-take areas that may provide a
buffer stock in the face of unexpected shocks [66].
– Access to credit and loans to re-build such as those existing in
the agricultural sector could be adapted to the fisheries sector
[5], along with education and skills upgrading to allow for a
diversification of livelihood opportunities.
– Increasing information on climate risk and changes which will
enable fishers to adopt anticipatory adaptive measures [5].
– Fair access agreements between WA countries and foreign
countries.
– Monitoring program.
Despite the qualitative nature of this analysis, a few gaps and
thus uncertainty could be discussed. In a generalized context, the
very detection of climate change effects on fisheries particularly in
West Africa is rather limited by the scarcity of data, particularly
that regional projections focusing is this area are lacking. In ad-
dition, there are variations in the potential impacts of climate
change at the LME level dependent on the model and/or scenario
used, as highlighted above. This is likely to affect not only the
intensity of the change but also the direction of the change itself. A
decline in catch potential is likely to produce a decrease in the
number of jobs in the future and thus the economic output.
Moreover, the change in fish price, substitution effects and change
in fish demand have not been fully studied in this analysis. Thus,
the effects of climate change on the socio-economy and food se-
curity of certain West African countries is yet to be further as-
sessed. Another uncertainty relates to the projections themselves
as they consider the actual situation to be constant over time,
based on the actual effort. Yet, this analysis clearly demonstrates
that fishing effort and fishing costs increased drastically and will
be likely to increase in the future. Thus, a follow-up quantitative
analysis including such components is necessary.
4. Conclusion
This paper attempts to link changing fisheries dynamics and
fishing behavior to climate change impacts on fisheries. It
 D. Belhabib et al. / Marine Policy 71 (2016) 15–28
documents adaptation strategies of fishers to effects similar to
those produced by climate change such as declining fish catch and
size and changing species composition. It first summarizes the
main effects modelled for two West African Large Marine Eco-
systems in terms of economic performance (economic output and
jobs), biologic productivity and diversity (species composition and
catch potential), adaptation and vulnerability. It summarizes the
characteristics and the changes witnessed by the two main sectors
in West Africa, the artisanal and industrial sectors as responses to
their changing fisheries conditions. The main finding of this ana-
lysis relates to the adaptive responses of these two sectors. It
comes to negate the speculative assumption that artisanal fish-
eries are expected to adapt by changing their target species given
their low spatial flexibility which restricts their movement, rather
a clear "following the fish" movement is observed in the context of
declining catches and economic output. Artisanal boats are
reaching farther expressed by increasing motorization and ex-
panding fishing range in most cases. These responses are in-
centivized or rather constrained by the culture, dietary habits and
available markets particularly under limited alternative livelihood
options. The "change in gear" observed relates to the speed at
which artisanal boats travel nowadays as they get increasingly
motorized. This creates another trap, beyond that of poverty,
where limited livelihood options and limited market and dietary
options offers mainly one choice, that of increasing effort to target
the same species and travel further distances to catch it. On the
other hand, industrial fleets which shows more flexibility and yet,
unexpectedly rather than strictly following the fish, enjoys a wider
market access and thus shift target species.
Acknowledgments
This is a contribution of the Sea Around Us toward the project
“Marine Conservation Research, Collaboration and Support in West
Africa”, funded by the MAVA Foundation. The Sea Around Us is a
scientific collaboration at the University of British Columbia fun-
ded by The Pew Charitable Trusts and the Paul G. Allen Family
Foundation.
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