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Global Steel methodology factor grid

Categories Broad Rating Rating Sub-factor


Aaa
Factor Sub-factor Weighting
1. Net Consolidated Sales ($USD billions)
Aaa ≥ 35
(most recent year-end or LTM period) 25%
Size and Business 2. Operational Diversity
Profile 3. Regional Diversity Aaa=8
1 4. Import Threat/Export Reliant 10%
1. EBIT Margin (3 year average) 10% Aaa ≥ 30%
Operating 2. Return on Average Tangible Assets
Aaa ≥ 20%
Performance and (3 year average) 5%
Volatility 3. Volatility based on the Coefficient of
Aaa < 15%
2 Variation of CFO/Net Sales 10%
1. Debt/Capital
Aaa < 20%
Financial Policies (most recent year-end or LTM period) 15%
3 2. Debt / EBITDA (3 year average) 10% Aaa < 0.75x
1. EBIT/Interest (3 year average)2 5% Aaa ≥ 15x
Financial Strength 2. CFO-Div/Debt (3 year average) 5% Aaa ≥ 55%
4 3. FCF / Debt (3 year average) 5% Aaa ≥ 30%
Total 100%
Aa A Baa Ba B Caa

≥ 25 Aa < 35 ≥ 15 A < 25 ≥ 5 Baa < 15 ≥ 2.5 Ba <5 ≥ 1 B < 2.5 Caa < 1

Aa=7 A=5 or 6 Baa=3 or 4 Ba=2 B=1 Caa=0

≥ 20% Aa < 30% ≥15% A < 20% ≥ 8.0% Baa < 15% ≥ 5.0% Ba < 8.0% ≥ 2.0% B < 5.0% Caa < 2%

≥ 15% Aa < 20% ≥ 10% A < 15% ≥ 5% Baa < 10% ≥ 2.5% Ba < 5% ≥ 1% B < 2.5% Caa < 1%

Caa < 0%
≥ 15% Aa < 25% ≥ 25% A < 40% ≥ 40% Baa < 60% ≥ 60% Ba < 75% ≥ 75% B < 90%
& ≥ 90%
≥ 20% Aa < 30% ≥ 30% A < 40% ≥ 40% Baa < 50% ≥ 50% Ba < 75% ≥ 75% B < 90% Caa ≥ 90%

≥ 0.75x Aa < 1.25x≥ 1.25x A < 2.0x ≥ 2.0x Baa < 3.0x ≥ 3.0x Ba < 4.0x ≥ 4.0x B < 5.5x Caa ≥ 5.5x
≥ 10x Aa < 15x ≥ 7x A < 10x ≥ 4.0x Baa <7.0x ≥ 2.5x Ba <4.0x ≥ 1.0x B <2.5x Caa < 1.0x
≥ 45% Aa < 55% ≥ 35% A < 45% ≥ 25% Baa < 35% ≥ 15% Ba < 25% ≥ 10% B < 15% Caa < 10%
≥ 20% Aa < 30% ≥ 14% A < 20% ≥ 8% Baa < 14% ≥ 4% Ba < 8% ≥ 0% B < 4% Caa < 0%
Indicated Rating Category
Aaa Aa A Baa Ba B Caa
6 5 4 3 2 1 0
Sub-factor POSCO Arcelor Mittal
No Sub-factor
Weighting Value Rating Value Rating
1. Net Consolidated Sales ($USD billions)
53.43 Aaa 78 Aaa
(most recent year-end or LTM period) 25%
1 2. Operational Diversity
3. Regional Diversity 10% 7 Aa 7 Aa
4. Import Threat/Export Reliant
1. EBIT Margin (3 year average) 10% 11.9% Baa 5.5% Ba
2. Return on Average Tangible Assets
10.2% Baa 4.1% Ba
2 (3 year average) 5%
3. Volatility based on the Coefficient of
-39.9% Caa 0.9% Aaa
Variation of CFO/Net Sales 10%
1. Debt/Capital
48.6% Baa 52.3% Ba
3 (most recent year-end or LTM period) 15%
2. Debt / EBITDA (3 year average) x 10% 2.9 Baa 7.2 Caa
1. EBIT/Interest (3 year average) x 5% 11.1 Aa 2.5 Ba
4 2. CFO-Div/Debt (3 year average) 5% 62.1% Aaa 12.2% B
3. FCF / Debt (3 year average) 5% 10.9% Baa 1.3% B
Total 100% 3.9 4
Overall Rating 100% A2 A2

freecashflow
the cash
that a
company is
able to
generate
after laying
out the
money
required to
maintain or
expand its
asset
base. Free c
ash flow is
important
because
it allows a
company
to pursue
opportuniti
es that
enhance
shareholde
r value.
Without
cash, it's
tough
to develop
new
products,
make
acquisitions
, pay
dividends
and reduce
debt. FCF is
calculated
as:

Read more: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/freecashflow.asp


arcelor posco U.s
U.S Steel EBIT Ave
Value Rating 4915.333 4701.333 433.3333 in million
AVE revenue (3 years)
17.3 A
89357 39406.67 17392 in million
Ave Tangible assets (3 years)
6 A 58494.67 18581.67 6660.667
Cash flow from operation
2.5% B struktur fc vc 8648.333 12652 406
Ave SALES
2.8% Ba
39406.67
EBITDA (3 years)
173.0% Caa
9850.667 6916.333 914.6667
cari aman interest Expense (3 years)
74.9% Ba
klo bumn untuk ngeg 1930 423.3333 174.3333
17.1 debt trlalu
Caa besar dibandingkan ebitda Debt (3 years)
bisin buat interest
2.5doang. IKUTAN
Ba DI PDF MOODY'S!!! BAGUS
71005.33DISITU!!
20368.67
Depre15619.67
itu penting
2.6% caa FCF (3 years)
0.7% B 915.6667 2220.333 116
2.1
Ba2
terms/f/freecashflow.asp#ixzz1QC2xDENB
Sub-factor Krakatau Steel Gunawan Dianjaya Steel
No Sub-factor
Weighting Value Score Value Score
1. Net Consolidated Sales ($USD billions)
1.12 B 0.13 Caa
(most recent year-end or LTM period) 25%
1 2. Operational Diversity
3. Regional Diversity 10% 5 A 3 Baa
4. Import Threat/Export Reliant
1. EBIT Margin (3 year average) 10% 6.2% Ba 9.7% Baa
2. Return on Average Tangible Assets
15.0%
2 (3 year average) 5% 7.2% Baa A
3. Volatility based on the Coefficient of
-125.0%
Variation of CFO/Net Sales 10% 5.3% Aaa Caa
1. Debt/Capital
27.0%
3 (most recent year-end or LTM period) 15% 39.9% A Aa
2. Debt / EBITDA (3 year average) x 10% 43671.3 Baa 522791.0 Baa
1. EBIT/Interest (3 year average) x 5% 0.0 A 0.0 Aaa
4 2. CFO-Div/Debt (3 year average) 5% 10.6% B 48.3% Aa
3. FCF / Debt (3 year average) 5% 11.6% Baa 56.0% Aaa
Total 100% 2.8 2.55
Overall Rating 100% Baa3 Baa3
KRAS GDS JPS
Jaya Pari steel EBIT Ave
Value Score 1082858 205973.33333 51939.67
AVE revenue (3 years)
0.03 Caa
17467040.6667 2124072.3333 487787.7
Ave Asset
2 Ba 15251429.6667 1379362.3333 388192.3
Cash flow from operation
10.6% Baa 100423769733 52031647459 779643.7
Ave SALES
13.4%
A 487787666667
EBITDA (3 years)
0.7% Aaa 21714289 205973.33333 51939.67
Interest Expense (3 years)
47.1% Baa 40876539618 802061981 360295.3
161.8 Caa Debt (3 years)
0.1 Ba 948291666667 107681000000 8404925
9.3% Caa FCF (3 years)
-4.9% Caa
2.1
Ba2
EBIT KRAS
2008 2009 2010
1536600 413494 1298480
EBIT GDS
2008 2009 2010
261010 145676 211234
EBIT JPS
2008 2009 2010
92819 21724 41276
Avg revenue KRAS
20631431 16913535 14856156
Avg revenue GDS
3020530 1641555 1710132
Avg revenue JPS
732703 302868 427792

Avg Asset KRAS


15374427 12795803 17584059
Avg Asset GDS
2092780 970737 1074570
Avg Asset JPS
399344 353951 411282
FCF JPRS
2008 2009 2010
72516573614 98643833589 9868113513
60342840238.6667
FCF GDST posco juga banyak pembelian, capex gede
2008 2009 2010
-1039606750194 1632823234868 -2.62923E+11
110097906596.667
FCF KRAS
2008 2009 2010
639423 1131293 -3018165
-415816.333333333

2010
PER
Price/share EPS PER 2009 2008
Arcelor Mittal 37.78 1.93 19.58 462.64 5.56
Jaya Pari Steel 580 37.93 15.29 226.92 8.85
Krakatau Steel 1200 81 14.81
POSCO 107.44 12 8.87 11.92 9.33
Gunawan Dianjaya Steel 160 21 7.62 -6.16 6.40
U.S Steel 59.02 -3.4 -17.36 -5.66 3.27

cari tau kenapa mittal


per pada saat kras IPO 103.84615385

October 29th 2010 December 30th 2010


Share price PER Share price PER
Mittal 32.38 13.11 37.78 16.8
KRAS 850 9.9 1200 10.5
GDST 197 7.9 160 9.4
JPRS 810 7.8 580 21.4
POSCO 103.94 8.2 107.44 8.7
U.S Steel 42.72 -26.4 59.02 -12.6

103.84615385
24.936708861

56.35 61.985 68.1835 75.00185


81 93.15 89.1
107.1225
123.190875
OCF JPRS
2008 2009 2010
116894916030 -9626220956 48826247303

nyak pembelian, capex gede Capex


2008 2009 2010
-704914916 642769613 -1573079492

OCF KRAS
2008 2009 2010
607123 883379 848429
Capex
2008 2009 2010
-21574 216655 1010392
price to book value
0.9149985584 OCF GDST
1.4493526225 2008 2009 2010
1.6939526402 213874201718 -52402082152 -34995025328
1.08 Capex
2.0227532901 103.94 2008 2009 2010
2.2003379382 197 9.380952 -30400000000 -29030938647 -9367469989

85.8585858586

berdasarkan proyeksi laba 2010

Direktur Utama PT Mandiri Sekuritas, penjamin emisi perusahaan Harry M Supoyo


Ketua Asosiasi Emiten (AEI) Indonesia Airlangga Hartarto
sesungguhnya penentuan mahal atau murah harga suatu saham bisa dengan membandingkan PE Ratio perusahaan sejenis. PE

kw 3 kw2 kw1
jprs 53.08 29.31 21.46
gdst 18.54 14.5 4.93 37.97

82.502035
NWC JPRS
2007 2008 2009 2010
2.05682E+11 2.50765E+11 1.41852E+11 1.82383E+11

45083257332

NWC KRAS
2007 2008 2009 2010
2976104 2965378 2500809 5357011

NWC GDST
2007 2008 2009 2010
4.248E+11 1.70868E+12 52486573539 2.89782E+11

gkan PE Ratio perusahaan sejenis. PE Ratio atau Price Earning Ratio (PER) adalah rasio harga saham terhadap laba bersih per saham perusa
ba bersih per saham perusahaan. "Jadi bukan harga sahamnya,"
Rank Company Rating Score
1 Arcelor Mittal A2 4
2 POSCO A2 3.9
3 Gunawan Dianjaya Steel Baa3 2.8
4 Jaya Pari Steel Baa3 2.55
5 Krakatau Steel Ba2 2.1
6 U.S Steel Ba2 2.1
2007 2008 2009
Share Price PER Share Price PER Share Price PER
Arcelor Mittal 63.65 8.6 66.8 9.8 31.63 387.3
POSCO 101.66 8.1 109.41 9.5 89.41 9.9
JPRS 388.67 5.9 268.75 105.1
U.S Steel 101.66 13.6 110.35 6.1 35.78 -3.4

213874201718 -0.75498643 9.864E+10 0.0526718 gdst


52402082152 -0.33218254 1E+11
34995025328 -1

3020530000000 -0.45653412 7.771E+11


1641555000000 0.04177563 2.124E+12
1710132000000

848429 20631431 -0.039564 -0.18020544 0.0072413 kras


883379 16913535 0.4550248 -0.12164098
607123 14856156
OCF REV
2008 1.1689E+11 7.327E+11 -1.08234936 -0.586643 -1.246359521 jayapari
2009-9626220956 3.029E+11 -6.07221344 0.4124701
2010 4.8826E+10 4.278E+11
OCF REV
2008 2971 33141 1.4870414 -0.04502 -0.399030187 POSCO
2009 7389 31649 -0.68980918 0.688205
2010 2292 53430
OCF REV
2008 14652 124936 -0.503276 -0.478853 0.009301231 MT
2009 7278 65110 -0.44833746 0.1983566
2010 4015 78025
average tangible asset
seberapa efisien tangible asset dalam menghasilkan pendapatan operasi tanpa memperhitungkan tax dan interest.

ocf rev
2008 1658 23754 -1.03679 -0.5349 1.73043 X
2009 -61 11048 5.213115 0.572592
2010 -379 17374
kan tax dan interest.
No Sub-factor Sub-factor W Gunawan Dianjaya Jaya Pari Steel
Steel
Value Rating Value Rating
1. Net Consolidated Sales ($USD billions)
25% 0.2 Caa 0.05 Caa
(year 2010)
2. Operational Diversity
3. Regional Diversity 10% 3 Baa 2 Ba
1 4. Import Threat/Export Reliant
1. EBIT Margin (3 year average) 10% 14.30% Baa 10.60% Baa
2. Return on Average Tangible Assets
5% 115.80% Aaa 279.00% Aaa
(3 year average)
3. Volatility based on the Coefficient of
10% 4.70% Aaa 10.70% Aaa
2 Variation of CFO/Net Sales
1. Debt/Capital
15% 39.90% A 27.00% Aa
(most recent year-end or LTM period)
3 2. Debt / EBITDA (3 year average) x 10% 2.8 Baa 2.0 Baa
1. EBIT/Interest (3 year average) x 5% 7.4 A 64.2 Aaa
2. CFO-Div/Debt (3 year average) 5% 10.60% B 48.30% Aa
4 3. FCF / Debt (3 year average) 5% 11.60% Baa 56.00% Aaa
Total 100% 2.8 3.3
Overall Rating 100% Baa3 Baa1

http://www.antaranews.com/berita/1280905659/pt-krakatau-steel-perse
http://www.moodys.com.br/brasil/pdf/Global_Building_Materials_Indus
Krakatau Steel POSCO Arcelor Mittal U.S Steel

Value Rating Value Rating Value Rating Value Rating

1.74 B 53.43 Aaa 78 Aaa 17.3 A

5 A 7 Aa 7 Aa 6 A

6.20% Ba 11.90% Baa 5.50% Ba 2.50% B

29.70% Aaa 25.30% Aaa 8.40% Baa 6.50% Baa

4.50% Aaa 32.10% A 9.70% Aaa 2.30% Aaa

47.10% Baa 48.60% Baa 52.30% Ba 74.90% Ba

5.9 Caa 2.9 Baa 7.2 Caa 17.1 Caa


3.0 Ba 11.1 Aa 2.5 Ba 2.5 Ba
9.30% Caa 62.10% Aaa 12.20% B 2.60% caa
-4.90% Caa -10.90% Caa 1.30% B 0.70% B
2.3 4.3 3.45 2.75
Ba1 A1 Baa1 Baa3

0905659/pt-krakatau-steel-persero-&-posco-mendirikan-perusahaan-patungan-pabrik-baja-terpadu-di-indonesia
lobal_Building_Materials_Industry.pdf