Ontario Progressive

Conservative Leadership
Race Poll
28th February 2018
METHODOLOGY
The analysis in this report is based of results
of a survey was conducted between February
21st to 26th, 2018 among a sample of 17399
members of the Progressive Conservative
Party of Ontario. The survey was conducted
using automated telephone interviews
(Smart IVR). Respondents were interviews on
landlines and cellular phones.
Mainstreet Research began fielding with a frame
of donors to the Progressive Conservative
Party of Ontario and the Conservative
Party of Canada that live in Ontario. Each
respondent was screened for membership.
Then three copies of the list were provided to
Mainstreet Research by different leadership
campaigns and matched to each other to
ensure the validity and integrity of the list. All
responses collected before the membership
was obtained was then matched against the
membership list. Respondents were dialed at
random.
The survey was conducted by Mainstreet
Research and was not sponsored by a third
party.
The margin of error for this survey is +/- 0.7%
and is accurate 19 times out of 20.
(full methodology appears at the end of this
report)
ABOUT MAINSTREET
With 20 years of political experience in all
three levels of government, President and CEO
Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on
international public affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes,
Mainstreet Research has provided accurate
snapshots of public opinion, having predicted
a majority NDP government in Alberta, and
was the only polling firm to correctly predict a
Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal
election. Mainstreet also accurately predicted
the Miami & New York City Mayoral elections.
and the Alabama special election in 2017.
Mainstreet Research is a member of the World
Association for Public Opinion Research and
meets international and Canadian publication
standards.
CONTACT INFORMATION
In Ottawa:
Quito Maggi, President
quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
In Toronto:
Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
Find us online at:
www.mainstreetresearch.ca
twitter.com/MainStResearch
facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
ONTARIO PC LEADERSHIP RACE A COIN FLIP BETWEEN FORD AND ELLIOTT

28 February 2018 – (TORONTO, ON) – The Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario leadership race
will likely be a close race between Christine Elliott and Doug Ford, a new Mainstreet Research poll
finds.

The poll surveyed 17399 PC party members between February 21st and February 26th. The respondents
were asked to rank their top three choices. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 0.7% and is accurate
19 times out of 20.

“With the exit of Patrick Brown from the leadership race, Ford and Elliott look to be in a tight race
to become the next leader of the PCs”, said Quito Maggi, President and CEO of Mainstreet Research.

In terms of votes among decided voters, Ford leads with 36.7%, while Elliott has 32.7% support.
Caroline Mulroney follows with 20% and Tanya Granic Allen has the support of 10.6% of Conservative
members.

When calculating for points per riding, Ford would get 34.8% of the points on first ballot, Elliott
would garner 33.9%, Mulroney would be at 19.6% and Granic Allen would be 11.7%.

“The chances of Ford and Elliott winning are that of flipping a coin,” added Maggi. “There are so
many intangibles that will impact the outcome of this race which makes it difficult to predict.”

Also, 1000 simulations of the leadership vote using all the responses were run. Ford won 52.2% of the
simulations while Elliott won 47.8%. All simulations had the vote go the full three ballots.

PC members have until March 5 to register to vote in the leadership race. Only 7000 are said to have
registered as of yesterday.

“Each campaign is in a race to register as many members as they can before this Friday,” continued
Maggi. “The campaign that can register the most members and get them to vote will win.”

“It could be any of the candidates – irrespective of what these numbers say.”

The poll had included Brown as an option. To accommodate Brown’s exit, those respondents who
indicated that they would vote for Brown had their second choices changed to first choice.

Brown had a narrow lead over Elliott and Ford. The former leader had 25.6% support, while Elliott
and Ford had 25.4% each.

-30-

For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact:

Dr. Joseph Angolano, 647-894-1552 - joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
Paths To Victory
What Our Polling and Simulations Show About How The Race
Could Unfold
This race is a coin flip.

We ran 1000 simulations based on our polling – half of the simulations converted
Patrick Brown supporters’ second choice votes to first choice (and their third choice
became their second), and the other half excluded Brown supporters’ responses
altogether. Both scenarios are of course extremes. What will actually happen in the
leadership election is that some of Brown’s supporters will vote for their second
choice and some will not bother to vote at all. Our decision to use both scenarios
we think accounts well this eventuality. We first randomized voter turnout for each
candidate, and ran each simulation.

Doug Ford and Christine Elliott were the only winners of the simulations, while
Caroline Mulroney did finish second twelve times. Ford won 52.2% of the simulations,
while Elliott won 47.8% of the time. These simulations – coupled with the fact that PC
members have until March 5 to register to vote in the leadership election – indicate
that this race will be very hard to predict. In fact, many of our simulations had Ford
and Elliott trading the lead from ballot to ballot.

However these simulations, along with the ballot-by-ballot scenarios, show us the
path that each candidate needs to win. All candidates need second choice votes
from other candidates’ supporters to win. This race will likely go the full three ballots.

Doug Ford
Our simulations make Ford a very slight favourite over Elliott. This is due to three
factors. First, Ford gets a lead on votes (not points) over Elliott when weighing
for ethnicity, showing that Ford is doing better than Elliott among multicultural
communities. As we know from past leadership races, mobilizing these communities
can help a leadership candidate win. Moreover, an overwhelming majority of Granic
Allen’s second choices go to Ford, signifying that social conservatives are more
comfortable supporting Ford over Elliott. We also see that Brown supporters favour
Ford over Elliott, so Ford will get a slight advantage over Elliott if former Brown
backers register and vote.

If Ford can mobilize his multicultural base and Granic Allen has a good showing on
first ballot, his chances of winning the PC leadership increase.

Christine Elliott
Elliott has a distinct path to victory to Ford’s. While Granic Allen’s supporters favour
Ford as their second choice, Elliott is preferred as the second choice among Caroline
Mulroney supporters. While Ford needs Granic Allen to have a strong showing, Elliott
needs the same from Caroline Mulroney, perhaps more. Mulroney’s average vote
total when she exits the ballots is 21.85% when Elliott wins, while it is 20.82% when
Ford wins. The difference in Granic Allen’s final percentage between Ford wins and
Elliott wins is only .4%.

Another thing to note is that Ford’s slender lead in votes erodes when we calculate
for points. This points to a slight inefficiency in Ford’s vote and that Elliott’s support
is more evenly distributed across the province. This is an advantage for Elliott as it
is points per riding, not overall votes, that will determine the winner.

In order to win, Elliott needs Mulroney to perform well above Granic Allen on the first
ballot - so much so that Elliott would be essentially guaranteed to win if Mulroney is
second on the first ballot behind her. Also, Elliott needs to convert some of Brown’s
former supporters and make more inroads among multicultural communities (South
Asians make up 28% of the total membership for example) to stand a greater chance
of winning.

Caroline Mulroney
Mulroney failed to win any of the simulations, and under normal circumstances, we
would write off her chances to win the leadership. But these circumstances are not
normal. Each Conservative membership must register online to vote before March 5.
Any organized effort to register thousands of members requires a lot of money, and
Mulroney has a significant lead in fundraising. This means that her campaign has a
chance to get an advantage in member registration over the other candidates – and
thus more votes. If her team can do that, she will outperform our simulations and
may even win if she and Doug Ford are on the final ballot. Mulroney’s task is simple:
she must be at least second ahead of Christine Elliott on the first ballot if she is to
win. Much like her father was second on first ballot in the 1983 federal PC race that
he eventually won.

Tanya Granic Allen

We have a hard time envisioning a scenario in which Granic Allen can win. Her
campaign will have a puncher’s chance of getting more members to register to vote
to be sure, but she is up against three campaigns that are either very well funded
and/or have done large scale campaigns in the past. But she is the social conservative
candidate in this race and we learned from last year’s federal Conservative leadership
campaign that social conservatives are very motivated and are well organized. The
strong showing of Brad Trost and Pierre Lemieux in that race proved this.

Granic Allen did sneak up to third on a few simulations, and while we think she will
be the first to leave the race, we will not be surprised if she gets over 15% on the
first ballot. A strong showing by Granic Allen will point to the strength of social
conservatism within the PC party.
 If the Ontario PC Party Leadership Election were held
today for whom would you vote?
(with the second choices of Patrick Brown’s supporters converted to first choice)

Support Among All members Support Among All Members

(calculated by votes - unweighted) (calculated by votes - weighted)

Support Among Decided Members Support Among Decided Members

(calculated by votes - weighted) (calculated by points)
 If the Ontario PC Party Leadership Election were held
today for whom would you vote?
(excluding Patrick Brown supporters)

Support Among All members Support Among All Members

(calculated by votes - unweighted) (calculated by votes - weighted)

Support Among Decided Members Support Among Decided Members

(calculated by votes - weighted) (calculated by points)
 If the Ontario PC Party Leadership Election were held
today for whom would you vote?
(including Patrick Brown as a ballot option)

Support Among All members Support Among All Members

(calculated by votes - unweighted) (calculated by votes - weighted)

Support Among Decided Members Support Among Decided Members

(calculated by votes - weighted) (calculated by points)
Second Choice Support Broken Out By
Candidate
 Ballot-by-Ballot Scenarios
(with the second choices of Patrick Brown’s supporters moved to first choice)

(excluding Patrick Brown supporters)

If the Ontario PC Party Leadership Election were held today for whom would you vote?
(Brown supporters’ second choice converted to first choice - weighted)

(Brown supporters excluded - weighted)

Second Choices Broken Out By Candidate

Third Choices Broken Out By Candidate

 QUESTIONNAIRE
If the Ontario PC Party Leadership Election were held today for whom would you
vote?
(order of responses randomized)
Christine Elliott
Doug Ford
Tanya Granic Allen
Caroline Mulroney
Patrick Brown
Undecided

As you may know, the Ontario PC Party Leadership Election will use a preferential
ballot on which you will be able to rank the candidates. If the Leadership Election
were held today which candidate would you rank second? In other words, who
would be your second choice?
Christine Elliott
Doug Ford
Tanya Granic Allen
Caroline Mulroney
Patrick Brown
Undecided

And if the Leadership Election were held today which candidate would you rank
third? In other words, who would be your third choice?
Christine Elliott
Doug Ford
Tanya Granic Allen
Caroline Mulroney
Patrick Brown
Undecided

What is your gender?

Male
Female

What is your age group?

Under 18 years of age
18 to 34 years of age
35 to 49 years of age
50 to 64 years of age
65 years of age or older
Methodology
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted between February
21, 2018 and February 26, 2018, among a sample of 17399 members of the Progressive
Conservative Party of Ontario. The survey was conducted using automated telephone
interviews (Smart IVR). Respondents were interviewed on both landlines and cellular
phones. The survey is intended to represent the voting membership of the Progressive
Conservative Party of Ontario.

The survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and was not sponsored by a third party.

In terms of the sampling frame, Mainstreet Research began fielding with a frame of
donors to the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario and the Conservative Party
of Canada that live in Ontario. Each respondent was screened for membership. Three
copies of the list were then provided to Mainstreet Research by different leadership
campaigns and matched to each other to ensure the validity and integrity of the list.
Any member that did not appear on all three lists was excluded from the frame. All
responses collected before the membership was obtained was then matched against
the membership list. Any response that did not appear on the membership list was
then removed. Respondents were dialed at random.

At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled

telephone number. The calls were staggered over multiple times of day to maximize
the chances of making contact with a potential respondent. Interviewing was also
spread as evenly as possible across the field period.

The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www.
mainstreetresearch.ca. Questions are asked as they appear in the release document. If
a question is asked of a subset of the sample a descriptive note is added in parenthesis
preceding the question.

The sample was weighted to the distribution of ethnicities among the PC membership
list.

The margin of error for this poll is +/- 0.7% at the 95% confidence level. The margin
of error for each subgroup is higher.

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions
and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the
findings of opinion polls.